Search results for: coastal risk assessment

Authors: Ulas Cinar, Omer Faruk Ugurlu, Selcuk Cebi

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Occupational safety risk management is the most important element of a safe working environment. Effective risk management can only be possible with accurate analysis and evaluations. Scoring-based risk assessment methods offer considerable ease of application as they convert linguistic expressions into numerical results. It can also be easily adapted to any field. Contrary to all these advantages, important problems in scoring-based methods are frequently discussed. Effective measurability is one of the most critical problems. Existing methods allow experts to choose a score equivalent to each parameter. Therefore, experts prefer the score of the most likely outcome for risk. However, all other possible consequences are neglected. Assessments of the existing methods express the most probable level of risk, not the real risk of the enterprises. In this study, it is aimed to develop a method that will present a more comprehensive evaluation compared to the existing methods by evaluating the probability and severity scores, all sub-parameters, and potential results, and a new scoring-based method is proposed in the literature.

Keywords: occupational health and safety, risk assessment, scoring based risk assessment method, underground mining, weighted risk scores

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Authors: Thitaporn Thoopputra, Tipaporn Pongmesa, Shuchuen Li

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Aims: To evaluate the application of non-invasive diabetes risk assessment tool in community pharmacy setting. Methods: Thai diabetes risk score was applied to assess individuals at risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Interactive computer-based risk screening (IT) and paper-based risk screening (PT) tools were applied. Participants aged over 25 years with no known diabetes were recruited in six participating pharmacies. Results: A total of 187 clients, mean aged (+SD) was 48.6 (+10.9) years. 35% were at high risk. The mean value of willingness-to-pay for the service fee in IT group was significantly higher than PT group (p=0.013). No significant difference observed for the satisfaction between groups. Conclusions: Non-invasive risk assessment tool, whether paper-based or computerized-based can be applied in community pharmacy to support the enhancing role of pharmacists in chronic disease management. Long term follow up is needed to determine the impact of its application in clinical, humanistic and economic outcomes.

Keywords: community pharmacy, intervention, prevention, risk assessment, type 2 diabetes

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Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

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This paper studies the susceptibility of local settlements in the gulf of Oman mangrove forest zone to flooding and progressesconsiderate of acuities and reactions to historical and present coastal flooding.it is indirect thaterosionsproduced in coastal zones by the change of mangrove undergrowthsubsequent from the enduring influence of persons since the late 19th century. Confronted with the increasing impact of climate change on climate ambitiousalarms such as flooding and biodiversity damage, handling the relationship between mangroves and their atmosphere has become authoritative for their defense. Coastal flood dangers are increasing quickly. We offer high resolution approximations of the financial value of mangroves forests for flood risk discount. We progress a probabilistic, process-based estimate of the properties of mangroves on avoidanceharms to people and property. More significantly, it also establishes how the incessantsqualor of this significant ecosystem has the potential to unfavorably influence the future cyclone persuadeddangers in the area.

Keywords: mangrove forest, coastal, flood, erosion

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Authors: Hilalah Alturkistani, Alaa AlFaadhel, Nora AlJahani, Fatiha Djebbar

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Cloud computing is one of the most widely used technology which provides opportunities and services to government entities, large companies, and standard users. However, cybersecurity risk management studies of cloud computing and resiliency approaches are lacking. This paper proposes resilient cloud cybersecurity risk assessment and management tailored specifically, to Dropbox with two approaches:1) technical-based solution motivated by a cybersecurity risk assessment of cloud services, and 2)a target personnel-based solution guided by cybersecurity-related survey among employees to identify their knowledge that qualifies them withstand to any cyberattack. The proposed work attempts to identify cloud vulnerabilities, assess threats and detect high risk components, to finally propose appropriate safeguards such as failure predicting and removing, redundancy or load balancing techniques for quick recovery and return to pre-attack state if failure happens.

Keywords: cybersecurity risk management plan, resilient cloud computing, cyberattacks, cybersecurity risk assessment

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Authors: Mohammed E. Mansour, Tamador M. A. Elhassan, Nahid A. Ibrahim, Awatif A. Ahmed, Manal A. Abdalla

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Rift valley fever (RVF) is mosquito-borne disease. RVF is transboundary zoonotic disease. It has socioeconomic and public health importance. This paper describes qualitative risk of the RVF vaccine production. RVF is endemic in the Sudan. It has been reported in Sudan due to abundance of Ades Eqytie. Thus, there is huge effort to control it. Vaccination practices had significant role to control and manage RVF. The risk assessment explains the likelihood of a risk as likely. Thus, insecticides and repellents synergize the effort of the vaccination.

Keywords: qualitative analysis, risk assessment, rift valley fever vaccine, quality control

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Authors: Abduladim Maitieg, Kevin Lynch, Mark Johnson

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The goal of the Libyan Environmental General Authority (EGA) and National Oil Corporation (Department of Health, Safety & Environment) during the last 5 years has been to adopt a common approach to coastal and marine spatial planning. Protection and planning of the coastal zone is a significant for Libya, due to the length of coast and, the high rate of oil export, and spills’ potential negative impacts on coastal and marine habitats. Coastal resource scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term and short-term consequences of oil spill impact and available response options that would provide an integrated perspective on mitigation. To investigate that, this paper reviews the Misratah coastal parameters to present the physical and human controls and attributes of coastal habitats as the first step in understanding how they may be damaged by an oil spill. This paper also investigates costal resources, providing a better understanding of the resources and factors that impact the integrity of the ecosystem. Therefore, the study described the potential spatial distribution of oil spill risk and the coastal resources value, and also created spatial maps of coastal resources and their vulnerability to oil spills along the coast. This study proposes an analysis of coastal resources condition at a local level in the Misratah region of the Mediterranean Sea, considering the implementation of coastal and marine spatial planning over time as an indication of the will to manage urban development. Oil spill contamination analysis and their impact on the coastal resources depend on (1) oil spill sequence, (2) oil spill location, (3) oil spill movement near the coastal area. The resulting maps show natural, socio-economic activity, environmental resources along of the coast, and oil spill location. Moreover, the study provides significant geodatabase information which is required for coastal sensitivity index mapping and coastal management studies. The outcome of study provides the information necessary to set an Environmental Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the Misratah shoreline, which can be used for management of coastal resources and setting boundaries for each coastal sensitivity sectors, as well as to help planners measure the impact of oil spills on coastal resources. Geographic Information System (GIS) tools were used in order to store and illustrate the spatial convergence of existing socio-economic activities such as fishing, tourism, and the salt industry, and ecosystem components such as sea turtle nesting area, Sabkha habitats, and migratory birds feeding sites. These geodatabases help planners investigate the vulnerability of coastal resources to an oil spill.

Keywords: coastal and marine spatial planning advancement training, GIS mapping, human uses, ecosystem components, Misratah coast, Libyan, oil spill

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Authors: Atousa Khodadadyan, Gabe Mythen, Hirbod Assa, Beverley Bishop

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Risk assessment and the knowledge provided through this process is a crucial part of any decision-making process in the management of risks and uncertainties. Failure in assessment of risks can cause inadequacy in the entire process of risk management, which in turn can lead to failure in achieving organisational objectives as well as having significant damaging consequences on populations affected by the potential risks being assessed. The choice of tools and techniques in risk assessment can influence the degree and scope of decision-making and subsequently the risk response strategy. There are various available qualitative and quantitative tools and techniques that are deployed within the broad process of risk assessment. The sheer diversity of tools and techniques available to practitioners makes it difficult for organisations to consistently employ the most appropriate methods. This tools and techniques adaptation is rendered more difficult in public risk regulation organisations due to the sensitive and complex nature of their activities. This is particularly the case in areas relating to the environment, food, and human health and safety, when organisational goals are tied up with societal, political and individuals’ goals at national and international levels. Hence, recognising, analysing and evaluating different decision support tools and techniques employed in assessing risks in public risk management organisations was considered. This research is part of a mixed method study which aimed to examine the perception of risk assessment and the extent to which organisations practise risk assessment’ tools and techniques. The study adopted a semi-structured questionnaire with qualitative and quantitative data analysis to include a range of public risk regulation organisations from the UK, Germany, France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The results indicated the public risk management organisations mainly use diverse tools and techniques in the risk assessment process. The primary hazard analysis; brainstorming; hazard analysis and critical control points were described as the most practiced risk identification techniques. Within qualitative and quantitative risk analysis, the participants named the expert judgement, risk probability and impact assessment, sensitivity analysis and data gathering and representation as the most practised techniques.

Keywords: decision-making, public risk management organisations, risk assessment, tools and techniques

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Micaela Demichela

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During the last decades, a number of food crises such as Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE), Mad-Cow disease, Dioxin in chicken food, Food-and-Mouth Disease (FMD), have certainly inflicted the reliability of the food industry. Consequently, the trend in applying different scientific methods of risk assessment in food safety has obtained more attentions in the academic and practice. However, lack of practical approach considering entire food supply chain is tangible in the academic literature. In this regard, this paper aims to apply risk assessment tool (FMEA) with integration of Human Factor along the entire supply chain of food production and test the method in a case study of Diary production, and analyze its results.

Keywords: FMEA, food supply chain, risk assessment, human factor

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Authors: Salima Smiti, Ines Gasmi, Makram Soui

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Credit risk is the most important issue for financial institutions. Its assessment becomes an important task used to predict defaulter customers and classify customers as good or bad payers. To this objective, numerous techniques have been applied for credit risk assessment. However, to our knowledge, several evaluation techniques are black-box models such as neural networks, SVM, etc. They generate applicants’ classes without any explanation. In this paper, we propose to assess credit risk using rules classification method. Our output is a set of rules which describe and explain the decision. To this end, we will compare seven classification algorithms (JRip, Decision Table, OneR, ZeroR, Fuzzy Rule, PART and Genetic programming (GP)) where the goal is to find the best rules satisfying many criteria: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The obtained results confirm the efficiency of the GP algorithm for German and Australian datasets compared to other rule-based techniques to predict the credit risk.

Keywords: credit risk assessment, classification algorithms, data mining, rule extraction

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Authors: S. Cowley, M. Lawrance, D. Bick, R. McCord

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Technology that automates manual handling (musculoskeletal disorder or MSD) risk assessments is increasingly available to ergonomists, engineers, generalist health and safety practitioners alike. The risk assessment process is generally based on the use of wearable motion sensors that capture information about worker movements for real-time or for posthoc analysis. Traditionally, MSD risk assessment is undertaken with the assistance of a checklist such as that from the SafeWork Australia code of practice, the expert assessor observing the task and ideally engaging with the worker in a discussion about the detail. Automation enables the non-expert to complete assessments and does not always require the assessor to be there. This clearly has cost and time benefits for the practitioner but is it an improvement on the assessment by the human. Human risk assessments draw on the knowledge and expertise of the assessor but, like all risk assessments, are highly subjective. The complexity of the checklists and models used in the process can be off-putting and sometimes will lead to the assessment becoming the focus and the end rather than a means to an end; the focus on risk control is lost. Automated risk assessment handles the complexity of the assessment for the assessor and delivers a simple risk score that enables decision-making regarding risk control. Being machine-based, they are objective and will deliver the same each time they assess an identical task. However, the WHS professional needs to know that this emergent technology asks the right questions and delivers the right answers. Whether it improves the risk assessment process and results or simply distances the professional from the task and the worker. They need clarity as to whether automation of manual task risk analysis and reporting leads to risk control or to a focus on the worker. Critically, they need evidence as to whether automation in this area of hazard management leads to better risk control or just a bigger collection of assessments. Practitioner experienced determinants of this automated manual task risk analysis and reporting being a benefit or distraction will address an understanding of emergent risk assessment technology, its use and things to consider when making decisions about adopting and applying these technologies.

Keywords: automated, manual-handling, risk-assessment, machine-based

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Authors: Swathi Sampath, V. Kalaichelvi

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The assessment of the risk posed by a borrower to a lender is one of the common problems that financial institutions have to deal with. Consumers vying for a mortgage are generally compared to each other by the use of a number called the Credit Score, which is generated by applying a mathematical algorithm to information in the applicant’s credit report. The higher the credit score, the lower the risk posed by the candidate, and the better he is to be taken on by the lender. The objective of the present work is to use fuzzy logic and linguistic rules to create a model that generates Credit Scores.

Keywords: credit scoring, fuzzy logic, mortgage, risk assessment

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Authors: Sharaf S. Omar

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In the current study, level and prevalence of deoxynivalenol (DON), aflatoxin B1 AFB1), zearalenone (ZEN), and ochratoxin A (OTA) in fried poultry eggs in Jordan was investigated. Poultry egg samples (n = 250) were collected. The level of DON, AFB1, ZEN and OTA in the white and yolk of poultry eggs was measured using LC-MS-MS. The health risk assessment was calculated using Margin of Exposures (MOEs) for AFB1 and OTA and hazard index (HI) for ZEN and DON. The highest prevalence in yolk and white of eggs was related to ZEN (96.56%) and OTA (97.44%), respectively. Also, the highest level in white and yolk was related to DON (1.07µg/kg) and DON (1.65 µg/kg), respectively. Level of DON in the yolk of eggs was significantly higher than white of eggs (P-value < 0.05). Risk assessment indicated that exposed population are at high risk of AFB1 (MOEs < 10,000) in fried poultry eggs.

Keywords: mycotoxins 2, aflatoxin b1, risk assessment, poultry egg

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Authors: Kitty Kioskli, Nineta Polemi

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Evaluating the levels of cyber-security risks within an enterprise is most important in protecting its information system, services and all its digital assets against security incidents (e.g. accidents, malicious acts, massive cyber-attacks). The existing risk assessment methodologies (e.g. eBIOS, OCTAVE, CRAMM, NIST-800) adopt a technical approach considering as attack factors only the capability, intention and target of the attacker, and not paying attention to the attacker’s psychological profile and personality traits. In this paper, a socio-technical approach is proposed in cyber risk assessment, in order to achieve more realistic risk estimates by considering the personality traits of the attackers. In particular, based upon principles from investigative psychology and behavioural science, a multi-dimensional, extended, quantifiable model for an attacker’s profile is developed, which becomes an additional factor in the cyber risk level calculation.

Keywords: attacker, behavioural models, cyber risk assessment, cybersecurity, human factors, investigative psychology, ISO27001, ISO27005

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Authors: Suba Periyal Subramaniam, Babette Scheres, Altomare Corrado, Holger Schuttrumpf

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Due to the climatic change and the usage of coastal areas, there is an increasing risk of dike failures along the coast worldwide. Wave run-up plays a key role in planning and design of a coastal structure. The coastal dike lines are bent either due to geological characteristics or due to influence of anthropogenic activities. The effect of the curvature of coastal dikes on wave run-up and overtopping is not yet investigated. The scope of this research is to find the effects of the dike curvature on wave run-up by employing numerical model studies for various dike opening angles. Numerical simulation is carried out using DualSPHysics, a meshless method, and OpenFOAM, a mesh-based method. The numerical results of the wave run-up on a curved dike and the wave transformation process for various opening angles, wave attacks, and wave parameters will be compared and discussed. This research aims to contribute a more precise analysis and understanding the influence of the curvature in the dike line and thus ensuring a higher level of protection in the future development of coastal structures.

Keywords: curved dikes, DualSPHysics, OpenFOAM, wave run-up

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Authors: Yasser O. Abualnaja1, Alexandra Pavlidou2, Taha Boksmati3, Ahmad Alharbi3, Hammad Alsulmi3, Saleh Omar Maghrabi3, Hassan Mowalad3, Rayan Mutwalli3, James H. Churchill4, Afroditi Androni2, Dionysios Ballas2, Ioannis Hatzianestis2, Harilaos Kontoyiannis2, Angeliki Konstantinopoulou2, Georgios Krokkos1, 5, Georgios Pappas2, Vassilis P. Papadopoulos2, Konstantinos Parinos2, Elvira Plakidi2, Eleni Rousselaki2, Dimitris Velaoras2, Panagiota Zachioti2, Theodore Zoulias2, Ibrahim Hoteit5.

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The coastal areas along the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on both the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf have been witnessing in the past decades an unprecedented economic growth and a rapid increase in anthropogenic activities. Therefore, the Saudi Arabian government has decided to frame a strategy for sustainable development of the coastal and marine environments, which comes in the context of the Vision 2030, aimed at providing the first comprehensive ‘Status Quo Assessment’ of the Kingdom’s coastal and marine environments. This strategy will serve as a baseline assessment for future monitoring activities; this baseline is relied on scientific evidence of the drivers, pressures, and their impact on the environments of the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. A key element of the assessment was the cumulative pressures of the hotspots analysis, which was developed following the principles of the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and using the cumulative pressure and impact assessment methodology. Ten hotspot sites were identified, eight in the Red Sea and two in the Arabian Gulf. Thus, multidisciplinary research cruises were conducted throughout the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf coastal and marine environments in June/July 2021 and September 2021, respectively, in order to understand the relative impact of hydrography and the various pressures on the quality of seawater and sediments. The main objective was to record the physical and biogeochemical parameters along the coastal waters of the Kingdom, tracing the dispersion of contaminants related to specific pressures. The assessment revealed the effect of hydrography on the trophic status of the southern marine coastal areas of the Red Sea. Jeddah Lagoon system seems to face significant eutrophication and pollution challenges, whereas sediments are enriched in some heavy metals in many areas of the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf. This multidisciplinary research in the Red Sea and the Arabian Gulf coastal waters will pave the way for future detailed environmental monitoring strategies for the Saudi Arabian marine environment.

Keywords: arabian gulf, contaminants, hotspot, red sea

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Authors: Ilzira A. Minigalieva

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Assessment of cumulative health risks associated with the widely observed combined exposures to two or more metals and their compounds on the organism in industrial or general environment, as well as respective regulatory and technical risk management decision-making have presumably the theoretical and experimental toxicology of mixtures as their reliable scientific basis. Analysis of relevant literature and our own experience proves, however, that there is no full match between these different practices. Moreover, some of the contradictions between them are of a fundamental nature. This unsatisfactory state of things may be explained not only by unavoidable simplifications characteristic of the methodologies of risk assessment and permissible exposure standards setting but also by the extreme intrinsic complexity of the combined toxicity theory, the most essential issues of which are considered and briefly discussed in this paper.

Keywords: toxic metals, nanoparticles, typology of combined toxicity, mathematical modeling, health risk assessment and management

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Authors: Seyedeh Belin Tavakoly Sany, H. Rosli, R. Majid, S. Aishah

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In this study, water monitoring was performed from Nov. 2012 to Oct. 2013 to assess water quality and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of physicochemical and biological variables in water. Water samples were collected from 10 coastal water stations of West Port. In the case of water-quality assessment, multi-metric indices and operational indicators have been proposed to classify the trophic status at different stations. The trophic level of West Port coastal water ranges from eutrophic to hypertrophic. Chl-a concentration was used to estimate the biological response of phytoplankton biomass and indicated eutrophic conditions in West Port and mesotrophic conditions at the control site. During the study period, no eutrophication events or secondary symptoms occurred, which may be related to hydrodynamic turbulence and water exchange, which prevent the development of eutrophic conditions in the West Port.

Keywords: water quality, multi-metric indices, operational indicator, Malaysia, West Port

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: J. Tamosaitiene

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The article focuses on the identification and classification of key risk management criteria that represent the most important sustainability aspects of the construction industry. The construction sector is one of the most important sectors in Lithuania. Nowadays, the assessment of the risk level of a construction project is especially important for the quality of construction projects, the growth of enterprises and the sector. To establish the most important criteria for successful growth of the sector, a questionnaire for experts was developed. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP), the expert judgement method and other multicriteria decision making (MCDM) methods were used to develop the hybrid model. The results were used to develop an integrated knowledge system for the measurement of a risk level particular to construction projects. The article presents a practical case that details the developed system, sustainable aspects, and risk assessment.

Keywords: risk, system, model, construction

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Authors: Thirumila Muthukamaru

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The objective of a Health Risk Assessment (HRA) is to achieve a quality evaluation of risk assessments in a timely manner where adequate controls can be in place to protect workers health, especially during turnarounds where the exposure to health hazards is expected to rise during the performance of the many activities that take place, exposing workers to health risk. HRA development requires a competent team comprising experienced subject matter experts in the field, such as Industrial hygienists, Occupational Health Doctors, Turnaround Coordinators, Operation / Maintenance personnel, etc. The conventional way of conducting HRA is not only tedious and time-consuming but also less appreciated when it is not interpreted correctly, which may contribute to inadequate operationalization of it. Simplification can be the essence of timely intervention in managing health risks. This paper is intended as a sharing of the approach taken to simplify the methodology of developing the HRA report and operationalizing it. The approach includes developing a Generic HRA for turnaround activities to be used as a reference document and the empowerment of identified personnel through upskilling sessions to take up the role of facilitating HRA sessions. This empowerment is one of the key approaches towards the successful translation of the HRA into specific turnaround Job Hazard Analysis (JHA) that embed it in the Permit to Work (PTW) process. The approach used here increases awareness and compliance on HRA for turnaround activities through better interpretation and operationalization of the HRA report, adding value to the risk assessment for turnaround activities.

Keywords: industrial hygiene, health risk assessment, HRA, risk assessment

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Authors: Mara Balestrieri, Clara Pusceddu

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Issues relating to the destructive phenomena that can damage people and goods have returned to the centre of debate in Italy with the increase in catastrophic episodes in recent years in a country which is highly vulnerable to hydrological risk. Environmental factors and geological and geomorphological territorial characteristics play an important role in determining the level of vulnerability and the natural tendency to risk. However, a territory has also been subjected to the requirements of and transformations of society, and this brings other relevant factors. The reasons for the increase in destructive phenomena are often to be found in the territorial development models adopted. Stewardship of the landscape and management of risk are related issues. This study aims to summarize the most relevant elements about this connection and at the same time to clarify the role of environmental risk assessment as a tool to aid in the sustainable management of landscape. How planners relate to this problem and which aspects should be monitored in order to prepare responsible and useful interventions?

Keywords: assessment, landscape, risk, planning

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Authors: Nina V. Zaitseva, Pavel Z. Shur, Nina G. Atiskova

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Nowadays harmonization of sanitary and hygienic standards of environmental quality with international standards is crucial part of integration of Russia into the international community. Harmonization of Russian and international ambient air quality standards may be realized by risk-based standards development. In this paper approaches to risk-based standards development and examples of these approaches implementation are presented.

Keywords: harmonization, health risk assessment, evolutionary modelling, benchmark level, nickel, manganese

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Authors: James Hilton Williams

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Recent tsunami events, including the 2011 Tohoku Tsunami, Japan, and the 2015 Illapel Tsunami, Chile, have highlighted the potential for tsunami impacts on the built environment. International research in the tsunami impacts domain has been largely focused toward impacts on buildings and casualty estimations, while only limited attention has been placed on the impacts on infrastructure which is critical for the recovery of impacted communities. New Zealand, with 75% of the population within 10 km of the coast, has a large amount of coastal infrastructure exposed to local, regional and distant tsunami sources. To effectively manage tsunami risk for New Zealand critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, and communications, the vulnerability of infrastructure networks and components must first be determined. This research develops infrastructure asset vulnerability, functionality and repair- cost functions based on international post-event tsunami impact assessment data from technologically similar countries, including Japan and Chile, and adapts these to New Zealand. These functions are then utilized within a New Zealand based impact framework, allowing for cost benefit analyses, effective tsunami risk management strategies and mitigation options for exposed critical infrastructure to be determined, which can also be applied internationally.

Keywords: impact assessment, infrastructure, tsunami impacts, vulnerability functions

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Authors: Malay Kumar Pramanik

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Climate change induced sea level rise increases storm surge, erosion, and inundation, which are stirred by an intricate interplay of physical environmental components at the coastal region. The Mumbai coast is much vulnerable to accelerated regional sea level change due to its highly dense population, highly developed economy, and low topography. To determine the significant causes behind coastal vulnerability, this study analyzes four different iterations of CVI by incorporating the pixel-based differentially weighted rank values of the selected five geological (CVI5), three physical (CVI8 with including geological variables), and four socio-economic variables (CVI4). However, CVI5 and CVI8 results yielded broadly similar natures, but after including socio-economic variables (CVI4), the results CVI (CVI12) has been changed at Mumbai and Kurla coastal portion that indicates the study coastal areas are mostly sensible with socio-economic variables. Therefore, the results of CVI12 show that out of 274.1 km of coastline analyzed, 55.83 % of the coast is very low vulnerable, 60.91 % of the coast is moderately vulnerable while 50.75 % is very high vulnerable. Finding also admits that in the context of growing urban population and the increasing rate of economic activities, socio-economic variables are most important variable to use for validating and testing the CVI. Finally, some recommendations are presented for concerned decision makers and stakeholders to develop appropriate coastal management plans, nourishment projects and mitigation measures considering socio-economic variables.

Keywords: coastal vulnerability index, sea level change, Mumbai coast, geospatial approach, coastal management, climate change

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Authors: Mohsen Shirani, Shadi Asadzandi, Micaela Demichela

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This paper presents the results of a study to assess crucial aspects and the strength of the scientific basis of a typically interdisciplinary, applied field: food supply chain risk assessment research. Our approach is based on an advanced scientometrics analysis with novel elements to assess the influence and dissemination of research results and to measure interdisciplinary. This paper aims to describe the quantity and quality of the publication trends in food supply chain risk assessment. The population under study was composed of 266 articles from database web of science. The results were analyzed based on date of publication, type of document, language of the documents, source of publications, subject areas, authors and their affiliations, and the countries involved in developing the articles.

Keywords: food supply chain, risk assessment, scientometrics, web of science

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: Eun-Chan Kim, Jeong-Hwan Oh, Seung-Guk Lee

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Billions of tones of ballast water including various aquatic organisms are being carried around the world by ships. When the ballast water is discharged into new environments, some aquatic organisms discharged with ballast water may become invasive and severely disrupt the native ecology. Thus, International Maritime Organization (IMO) adopted the Ballast Water Management Convention in 2004. Regulation A-4 of the convention states that a government in waters under their jurisdiction may grant exemptions to any requirements to ballast water management, but only when they are granted to a ship or ships on a voyage or voyages between specified ports or locations, or to a ship which operates exclusively between specified ports or locations. In order to grant exemptions, risk assessment should be conducted based on the guidelines for risk assessment developed by the IMO. For the risk assessment, it is essential to collect the relevant information and establish a database system. This paper studies the database system for ballast water risk assessment. This database consists of the shipping database, ballast water database, port environment database and species database. The shipping database has been established based on the data collected from the port management information system of Korea Government. For the ballast water database, ballast water discharge has only been estimated by the loading/unloading of the cargoes as the convention has not come into effect yet. The port environment database and species database are being established based on the reference documents, and existing and newly collected monitoring data. This database system has been approved to be a useful system, capable of appropriately analyzing the risk assessment in the all ports of Korea.

Keywords: ballast water, IMO, risk assessment, shipping, environment, species

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Authors: Md. Refat Jahan Rakiba, M. Belal Hossaina, Rakesh Kumarc, Md. Akram Ullaha, Sultan Al Nahiand, Nazmun Naher Rimaa, Tasrina Rabia Choudhury, Samia Islam Libaf, Jimmy Yub, Mayeen Uddin Khandakerg, Abdelmoneim Suliemanh, Mohamed Mahmoud Sayedi

Abstract:

Microplastics (MPs) have become an emerging global pollutant due to their wide spread and dispersion and potential threats to marine ecosystems. However, studies on MPs of estuarine and coastal ecosystems of Bangladesh are very limited or not available. In this study, we conducted the first study on the abundance, distribution, characteristics and potential risk assessment of microplastics in the sediment of Karnaphuli River estuary, Bangladesh. Microplastic particles were extracted from sediments of 30 stations along the estuary by density separation, and then enumerated and characterize by using steromicroscope and Fourier Transform Infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy. In the collected sediment, the number of MPs varied from 22.29 - 59.5 items kg−1 of dry weight (DW) with an average of 1177 particles kg−1 DW. The mean abundance was higher in the downstream and left bank of estuary where the predominant shape, colour, and size of MPs were films (35%), white (19%), and >5000 μm (19%), respectively. The main polymer types were polyethylene terephthalate, polystyrene, polyethylene, cellulose, and nylon. MPs were found to pose risks (low to high) in the sediment of the estuary, with the highest risk occuring at one station near a sewage outlet, according to the results of risk analyses using the pollution risk index (PRI), polymer risk index (H), contamination factors (CFs), and pollution load index (PLI). The single value index, PLI clearly demonastated that all sampling sites were considerably polluted (as PLI >1) with microplastics. H values showed toxic polymers even in lower proportions possess higher polymeric hazard scores and vice versa. This investigation uncovered new insights on the status of MPs in the sediments of Karnaphuli River estuary, laying the groundwork for future research and control of microplastic pollution and management.

Keywords: microplastics, polymers, pollution risk assessment, Karnaphuli esttuary

Procedia PDF Downloads 51

Authors: Schröde C., Rodriguez D., Sánchez A., Abdul Malak, Churchill J., Boksmati T., Alharbi, Alsulmi H., Maghrabi S., Mowalad, Mutwalli R., Abualnaja Y.

Abstract:

Formulating a strategy for sustainable development of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s coastal and marine environment is at the core of the “Marine and Coastal Protection Assessment Study for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Coastline (MCEP)”; that was set up in the context of the Vision 2030 by the Saudi Arabian government and aimed at providing a first comprehensive ‘Status Quo Assessment’ of the Kingdom’s marine environment to inform a sustainable development strategy and serve as a baseline assessment for future monitoring activities. This baseline assessment relied on scientific evidence of the drivers, pressures and their impact on the environments of the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. A key element of the assessment was the cumulative pressure hotspot analysis developed for both national waters of the Kingdom following the principles of the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework and using the cumulative pressure and impact assessment methodology. The ultimate goals of the analysis were to map and assess the main hotspots of environmental pressures, and identify priority areas for further field surveillance and for urgent management actions. The study identified maritime transport, fisheries, aquaculture, oil, gas, energy, coastal industry, coastal and maritime tourism, and urban development as the main drivers of pollution in the Saudi Arabian marine waters. For each of these drivers, pressure indicators were defined to spatially assess the potential influence of the drivers on the coastal and marine environment. A list of hotspots of 90 locations could be identified based on the assessment. Spatially grouped the list could be reduced to come up with of 10 hotspot areas, two in the Arabian Gulf, 8 in the Red Sea. The hotspot mapping revealed clear spatial patterns of drivers, pressures and hotspots within the marine environment of waters under KSA’s maritime jurisdiction in the Red Sea and Arabian Gulf. The cascading assessment approach based on the DPSIR framework ensured that the root causes of the hotspot patterns, i.e. the human activities and other drivers, can be identified. The adapted CPIA methodology allowed for the combination of the available data to spatially assess the cumulative pressure in a consistent manner, and to identify the most critical hotspots by determining the overlap of cumulative pressure with areas of sensitive biodiversity. Further improvements are expected by enhancing the data sources of drivers and pressure indicators, fine-tuning the decay factors and distances of the pressure indicators, as well as including trans-boundary pressures across the regional seas.

Keywords: Arabian Gulf, DPSIR, hotspot, red sea

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Mathias Linden, André Schneider, Harald F. O. von Korflesch

Abstract:

The risk of train accidents is an ongoing concern for railway organizations, governments, insurance companies and other depended sectors. Safety technologies are installed to reduce and to prevent potential damages of train accidents. Since the budgetary for the safety of railway organizations is limited, it is necessary not only to achieve a high availability and high safety standard but also to be cost effective. Therefore, an economic assessment of safety technologies is fundamental to create an accurate risk analysis. In order to conduct an economical assessment of a railway safety technology and a quantification of the costs of the accident causes, the Global Railway Accident Database & Evaluation (GRADE) has been developed. The aim of this paper is to describe the structure of this accident database and to show how it can be used for risk analyses. A number of risk analysis methods, such as the probabilistic safety assessment method (PSA), was used to demonstrate this accident database’s different possibilities of risk analysis. In conclusion, it can be noted that these analyses would not be as accurate without GRADE. The information gathered in the accident database was not available in this way before. Our findings are relevant for railway operators, safety technology suppliers, assurances, governments and other concerned railway organizations.

Keywords: accident causes, accident costs, accident database, global railway accident database & evaluation, GRADE, probabilistic safety assessment, PSA, railway accidents, risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 334