Search results for: Bayesian adjustment

Authors: M. Mulumpwa, W. W. L. Jere, M. Lazaro, A. H. N. Mtethiwa

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The study considered Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) processes to select an appropriate stochastic model to forecast the monthly data from the Lake Malawi water levels for the period 1986 through 2015. The appropriate model was chosen based on SARIMA (p, d, q) (P, D, Q)S. The Autocorrelation function (ACF), Partial autocorrelation (PACF), Akaike Information Criteria (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC), Box–Ljung statistics, correlogram and distribution of residual errors were estimated. The SARIMA (1, 1, 0) (1, 1, 1)12 was selected to forecast the monthly data of the Lake Malawi water levels from August, 2015 to December, 2021. The plotted time series showed that the Lake Malawi water levels are decreasing since 2010 to date but not as much as was the case in 1995 through 1997. The future forecast of the Lake Malawi water levels until 2021 showed a mean of 474.47 m ranging from 473.93 to 475.02 meters with a confidence interval of 80% and 90% against registered mean of 473.398 m in 1997 and 475.475 m in 1989 which was the lowest and highest water levels in the lake respectively since 1986. The forecast also showed that the water levels of Lake Malawi will drop by 0.57 meters as compared to the mean water levels recorded in the previous years. These results suggest that the Lake Malawi water level may not likely go lower than that recorded in 1997. Therefore, utilisation and management of water-related activities and programs among others on the lake should provide room for such scenarios. The findings suggest a need to manage the Lake Malawi jointly and prudently with other stakeholders starting from the catchment area. This will reduce impacts of anthropogenic activities on the lake’s water quality, water level, aquatic and adjacent terrestrial ecosystems thereby ensuring its resilience to climate change impacts.

Keywords: forecasting, Lake Malawi, water levels, water level fluctuation, climate change, anthropogenic activities

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Authors: Siddhartha Paul, Debabrata Das

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Closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) management focuses on integrating forward and reverse flow of material as well as information to maximize value creation over the entire life-cycle of a product. Bullwhip effect in supply chain management refers to the phenomenon where a small variation in customers’ demand results in larger variation of orders at the upstream levels of supply chain. Since the quality and quantity of products returned to the collection centers (as a part of reverse logistics process) are uncertain, bullwhip effect is inevitable in CLSC. Therefore, in the present study, first, through an extensive literature survey, we identify all the important factors related to forward as well as reverse supply chain which causes bullwhip effect in CLSC. Second, we develop a system dynamics model to study the interrelationship among the factors and their effect on the performance of overall CLSC. Finally, the results of the simulation study suggest that demand forecasting, lead times, information sharing, inventory and work in progress adjustment rate, supply shortages, batch ordering, price variations, erratic human behavior, parameter correcting, delivery time delays, return rate of used products, manufacturing and remanufacturing capacity constraints are the important factors which have a significant influence on system’s performance, specifically on bullwhip effect in a CLSC.

Keywords: bullwhip effect, closed-loop supply chain, system dynamics, variance ratio

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Authors: B. Cheknane, F. Zermane

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The main objective of the present study is the valorization of natural raw materials of plant origin for the treatment of textile industry wastewater. Selected bark was: maritime (MP), pinyon (PP) and Aleppo pine (AP) bark. The efficiency of these barks were tested for the removal of three dye; rhodamine B (RhB), Green Malachite (GM) and X Methyl Orange (MO). At the first time we focus to study the different parameters which can influence the adsorption processes such as: nature of the adsorbents, nature of the pollutants (dyes) and the effect of pH. Obtained results reveals that the speed adsorption is strongly influencing by the pH medium and the comparative study show that adsorption is favorable in the acidic medium with amount adsorbed of (Q=40mg/g) for rhodamine B and (Q=46mg/g) for orange methyl. Results of adsorption kinetics reveals that the molecules of GM are adsorbed better (Q=48mg/g) than the molecules of RhB (Q=46mg/g) and methyl orange (Q=18mg/g), with equilibrium time of 6 hours. The results of adsorption isotherms show clearly that the maritime pine bark is the most effective adsorbents with adsorbed amount of (QRhB=200mg/g) and (QMO=88mg/g) followed by pinyon pine (PP) with (QRhB=184mg/g) and (QMO=56mg/g) and finally Aleppo pine (AP) bark with (QRhB=131mg/g) and (QMO= 46mg/g). The different obtained isotherms were modeled using the Langmuir and Freundlich models and according to the adjustment coefficient values R2, the obtained isotherms are well represented by Freundlich model.

Keywords: maritime pine bark (MP), pinyon pine bark (PP), Aleppo pine (AP) bark, adsorption, dyes

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Authors: Veniamin Boiarkin, Bruno Bogaz Zarpelão, Muttukrishnan Rajarajan

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The manufacturing sector is a vital component of most economies, which leads to a large number of cyberattacks on organisations, whereas disruption in operation may lead to significant economic consequences. Adversaries aim to disrupt the production processes of manufacturing companies, gain financial advantages, and steal intellectual property by getting unauthorised access to sensitive data. Access to sensitive data helps organisations to enhance the production and management processes. However, the majority of the existing data-sharing mechanisms are either susceptible to different cyber attacks or heavy in terms of computation overhead. In this paper, a privacy-preserving data-sharing scheme for smart utilities is proposed. First, a customer’s privacy adjustment mechanism is proposed to make sure that end-users have control over their privacy, which is required by the latest government regulations, such as the General Data Protection Regulation. Secondly, a local differential privacy-based mechanism is proposed to ensure the privacy of the end-users by hiding real data based on the end-user preferences. The proposed scheme may be applied to different industrial control systems, whereas in this study, it is validated for energy utility use cases consisting of smart, intelligent devices. The results show that the proposed scheme may guarantee the required level of privacy with an expected relative error in utility.

Keywords: data-sharing, local differential privacy, manufacturing, privacy-preserving mechanism, smart utility

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Authors: Xue Wang, Li-Wei Fan

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The technology innovation has become the driving force of social and economic development and transformation. The guidance and support of public policies is an important condition to promote the realization of technology innovation goals. Policy effectiveness evaluation is instructive in policy learning and adjustment. This paper reviews existing studies and systematically evaluates the effectiveness of policy-driven technological innovation. We used 167 articles from WOS and CNKI databases as samples to clarify the measurement of technological innovation indicators and analyze the classification and application of policy evaluation methods. In general, technology innovation input and technological output are the two main aspects of technological innovation index design, among which technological patents are the focus of research, the number of patents reflects the scale of technological innovation, and the quality of patents reflects the value of innovation from multiple aspects. As for policy evaluation methods, statistical analysis methods are applied to the formulation, selection and evaluation of the after-effect of policies to analyze the effect of policy implementation qualitatively and quantitatively. The bibliometric methods are mainly based on the public policy texts, discriminating the inter-government relationship and the multi-dimensional value of the policy. Decision analysis focuses on the establishment and measurement of the comprehensive evaluation index system of public policy. The economic analysis methods focus on the performance and output of technological innovation to test the policy effect. Finally, this paper puts forward the prospect of the future research direction.

Keywords: technology innovation, index, policy effectiveness, evaluation of policy, bibliometric analysis

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Authors: Roman Graf, Sergiu Gordea, Heather M. Ryan

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This paper presents an approach for easy creation and classification of institutional risk profiles supporting endangerment analysis of file formats. The main contribution of this work is the employment of data mining techniques to support set up of the most important risk factors. Subsequently, risk profiles employ risk factors classifier and associated configurations to support digital preservation experts with a semi-automatic estimation of endangerment group for file format risk profiles. Our goal is to make use of an expert knowledge base, accuired through a digital preservation survey in order to detect preservation risks for a particular institution. Another contribution is support for visualisation of risk factors for a requried dimension for analysis. Using the naive Bayes method, the decision support system recommends to an expert the matching risk profile group for the previously selected institutional risk profile. The proposed methods improve the visibility of risk factor values and the quality of a digital preservation process. The presented approach is designed to facilitate decision making for the preservation of digital content in libraries and archives using domain expert knowledge and values of file format risk profiles. To facilitate decision-making, the aggregated information about the risk factors is presented as a multidimensional vector. The goal is to visualise particular dimensions of this vector for analysis by an expert and to define its profile group. The sample risk profile calculation and the visualisation of some risk factor dimensions is presented in the evaluation section.

Keywords: linked open data, information integration, digital libraries, data mining

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Authors: Bushra Akram, Amina Tariq

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Objective: This cross-sectional descriptive study aimed to compare the level of resilience among children with and without hearing loss. Methodology: In this descriptive cross sectional study total 500 children (with hearing loss = 250 and without hearing loss = 250) were recruited conveniently. Children with hearing loss were recruited from the special schools whereas children without hearing loss were selected from regular schools located in cities of Gujrat and Jhelum of Pakistan. Respondents’ age ranged from 9-14 years. Resiliency scale named RSCA (Resiliency Scales for children and adolescents) developed by Sandra Prince Embury (2006) was used. RSCA consist of three core theoretical areas: MAS (Sense of Mastery Scale), REL (Sense of Relatedness Scale) and REA (Emotional Reactivity Scale). Results: Findings indicated that there was a significant difference in the resilience level of participants with and without hearing loss. The mean comparison showed that the children with hearing loss showed lower scores on MAS (X̅ = 43.32, SD = 7.55) as well as on REL (X̅ = 49.96, SD = 7.65) as compared to their counterparts on MAS (X̅ = 53.96, SD = 9.90, t= -7.31***) and on REL (X̅ = 68.43, SD = 14.57,t= -10.18***). However children with hearing loss showed higher scores on REA (X̅ = 42.12, SD = 5.84) as compared to hearing participants (X̅ = 28.84, SD = 13.97, t = -8.20***). The findings revealed no significance difference in the resilience level of hearing and deaf children on the basis of their gender and age. Research Outcomes and Future Scope: Children with hearing loss showed a lower level of resilience, therefore, needs a program to develop resilience for better social-emotional adjustment and enhancement of their psychological well-being. In the end, the researcher gave recommendations for future research.

Keywords: children with hearing loss, psychological Wellbeing, resiliency scales for children and adolescents, resilience

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Authors: Nicola Rubino

Abstract:

This paper presents an analysis of a group of commodity exporting countries' nominal exchange rate movements in relationship to the US dollar. Using a series of Unrestricted Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive models (SETAR), we model and evaluate sixteen national CPI price differentials relative to the US dollar CPI. Out-of-sample forecast accuracy is evaluated through calculation of mean absolute error measures on the basis of two-hundred and fifty-three months rolling window forecasts and extended to three additional models, namely a logistic smooth transition regression (LSTAR), an additive non linear autoregressive model (AAR) and a simple linear Neural Network model (NNET). Our preliminary results confirm presence of some form of TAR non linearity in the majority of the countries analyzed, with a relatively higher goodness of fit, with respect to the linear AR(1) benchmark, in five countries out of sixteen considered. Although no model appears to statistically prevail over the other, our final out-of-sample forecast exercise shows that SETAR models tend to have quite poor relative forecasting performance, especially when compared to alternative non-linear specifications. Finally, by analyzing the implied half-lives of the > coefficients, our results confirms the presence, in the spirit of arbitrage band adjustment, of band convergence with an inner unit root behaviour in five of the sixteen countries analyzed.

Keywords: transition regression model, real exchange rate, nonlinearities, price differentials, PPP, commodity points

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Authors: Yasuyuki Takahashi, Hayato Ishimura, Masao Miyagawa, Teruhito Mochizuki

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Quantitative measurement of myocardium perfusion is possible with single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) using a semiconductor detector. However, accumulation of ^99mTc-tetrofosmin in the liver may make it difficult to assess that accurately in the inferior myocardium. Our idea is to reduce the high accumulation in the liver by using dynamic SPECT imaging and a technique called time subtraction. We evaluated the performance of a new SPECT system with a cadmium-zinc-telluride solid-state semi- conductor detector (Discovery NM 530c; GE Healthcare). Our system acquired list-mode raw data over 10 minutes for a typical patient. From the data, ten SPECT images were reconstructed, one for every minute of acquired data. Reconstruction with the semiconductor detector was based on an implementation of a 3-D iterative Bayesian reconstruction algorithm. We studied 20 patients with coronary artery disease (mean age 75.4 ± 12.1 years; range 42-86; 16 males and 4 females). In each subject, 259 MBq of ^99mTc-tetrofosmin was injected intravenously. We performed both a phantom and a clinical study using dynamic SPECT. An approximation to a liver-only image is obtained by reconstructing an image from the early projections during which time the liver accumulation dominates (0.5~2.5 minutes SPECT image-5~10 minutes SPECT image). The extracted liver-only image is then subtracted from a later SPECT image that shows both the liver and the myocardial uptake (5~10 minutes SPECT image-liver-only image). The time subtraction of liver was possible in both a phantom and the clinical study. The visualization of the inferior myocardium was improved. In past reports, higher accumulation in the myocardium due to the overlap of the liver is un-diagnosable. Using our time subtraction method, the image quality of the ^99mTc-tetorofosmin myocardial SPECT image is considerably improved.

Keywords: 99mTc-tetrofosmin, dynamic SPECT, time subtraction, semiconductor detector

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Authors: Nayera E. Hassan, Sahar A. El-Masry, Mones M. Abu Shady, Rokia A. El Banna, Muhammad Al-Tohamy, Mehrevan M. Abd El-Moniem, Mona Anwar

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Circulating oxidized LDL (ox-LDL) is associated with obesity, insulin resistance (HOMA), metabolic syndrome, and cardiovascular disease in adults. Little is known about relations in children. Aim: To assess association of ox-LDL with fat distribution and insulin resistance in a group of obese Egyptian children. Methods: Study is cross-sectional consisting of 68 obese children, with a mean age of 9.96 ± 1.32. Each underwent a complete physical examination; blood pressure (SBP, DBP) and anthropometric measurements (weight, height, BMI; waist, hip circumferences, waist/hip ratio), biochemical tests of fasting blood glucose (FBS), insulin levels; lipid profile (TC, LDL,HDL, TG) and ox-LDL; calculated HOMA. Sample was classified according to waist/hip ratio into: group I with and group II without central obesity. Results: ox-LDL showed significant positive correlation with LDL and TC in all groups of obesity. After adjustment for age and sex, significant positive correlation was detected between ox-LDL with SBP, DBP, TC, LDL, insulin, and HOMA in group II and with TC and FBS in group I. Insignificant association was detected between ox-LDL and other anthropometric parameters including BMI in any group of obese children (p > 0.05). Conclusions: ox-LDL, as a marker of oxidative stress is not correlated with BMI among all studied obese children (aged 6-12 years). Increased oxidative stress has causal effects on insulin resistance in obese children without central obesity and on fasting blood sugar in those with central obesity. These findings emphasize the importance of obesity during childhood and suggest that the metabolic complications of obesity and body fat distribution are detectable early in life.

Keywords: ox-LDL, obesity, insulin resistance, children

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Authors: Humara Bano, Nyla Anjum

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Disability in any form has great impact not only for the person facing it but also for its family members too. This effect may be so severe that may lead to mal adjustment of any member of the family in society as well. This impact has also been multiplied due to negative attitudes of the society, unawareness about the needs of special needs and no legislation for the parents of children with special needs. As a result not only the separations among the parents have been reported but also the normal siblings in the home are also badly affected in their daily lives. The situation is more challenging when more than one child with disability is present in the family. The main objectives of this paper are to unfold the relationship of variety of disabilities (hearing, visual or physical impairment, mental retardation, speech impairment) in i) developing depression in home setting, ii) social exclusion, iii) anxiety and aggression and iv) development of insecure feelings among family members of the persons with disabilities, as well as, v) to identify coping strategies to manage the special needs by family members too. To reach on conclusion about fifty families (having any sort of disability in their homes) have been interviewed on basis of convenient sampling. Correlation, ANOVA and different analysis have been used to identify the relationship of disability in developing depression among family members in line of above mentioned problems. Results revealed that depression due to disability among families is a common phenomenon and adversely have affected their lives in daily routines as well as in following their life achievements. Coping with the situation and recommending various remedies by parents is the positive reflection of this study too that can help to families in managing their mental health.

Keywords: depression, anxiety and aggression, social exclusion, parents of children with special needs

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Authors: Arnab Adhikari, Arnab Bisi

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Since the inception, the fashion apparel supply chain is facing the problem of high demand uncertainty. Often the demand volatility compels the corresponding supply chain member to incur substantial holding cost and opportunity cost in case of the overproduction and the underproduction scenario, respectively. It leads to an uncoordinated fashion apparel supply chain. There exist several scholarly works to achieve coordination in the fashion apparel supply chain by employing the different contracts such as the buyback contract, the revenue sharing contract, the option contract, and so on. Specially, the application of option contract in the apparel industry becomes prevalent with the changing global scenario. Exploration of existing literature related to the option contract reveals that most of the research works concentrate on the one direction demand adjustment i.e. either to match the demand upwards or downwards. Here, we present a holistic approach to coordinate a dyadic fashion apparel supply chain comprising one manufacturer and one retailer with the help of bidirectional option contract. We show a combination of wholesale price contract and bidirectional option contract can coordinate the under expanded supply chain. We also propose a framework that captures the variation of the apparel retailer’s order quantity and the apparel manufacturer’s production quantity with the changing exercise price for the different ranges of the option price. We analytically explore that corresponding cost parameters of the supply chain members along with the nature of demand distribution play an instrumental role in the coordination as well as the retailer’s ordering decision.

Keywords: fashion apparel supply chain, supply chain coordination, wholesale price contract, bidirectional option contract

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Authors: Jamerson Felipe Pereira Lima, Jeane Cecília Bezerra de Melo

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The difficulty and cost related to obtaining of protein tertiary structure information through experimental methods, such as X-ray crystallography or NMR spectroscopy, helped raising the development of computational methods to do so. An approach used in these last is prediction of tridimensional structure based in the residue chain, however, this has been proved an NP-hard problem, due to the complexity of this process, explained by the Levinthal paradox. An alternative solution is the prediction of intermediary structures, such as the secondary structure of the protein. Artificial Intelligence methods, such as Bayesian statistics, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), among others, were used to predict protein secondary structure. Due to its good results, artificial neural networks have been used as a standard method to predict protein secondary structure. Recent published methods that use this technique, in general, achieved a Q3 accuracy between 75% and 83%, whereas the theoretical accuracy limit for protein prediction is 88%. Alternatively, to achieve better results, support vector machines prediction methods have been developed. The statistical evaluation of methods that use different AI techniques, such as ANNs and SVMs, for example, is not a trivial problem, since different training sets, validation techniques, as well as other variables can influence the behavior of a prediction method. In this study, we propose a prediction method based on artificial neural networks, which is then compared with a selected SVM method. The chosen SVM protein secondary structure prediction method is the one proposed by Huang in his work Extracting Physico chemical Features to Predict Protein Secondary Structure (2013). The developed ANN method has the same training and testing process that was used by Huang to validate his method, which comprises the use of the CB513 protein data set and three-fold cross-validation, so that the comparative analysis of the results can be made comparing directly the statistical results of each method.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, protein secondary structure, protein structure prediction, support vector machines

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Authors: Hadjer Sadoune, Liza Lamini, Scherazade Krim, Amel Djouadi, Rachida Rihani

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Deep neural networks are highly regarded for their accuracy in predicting intricate fermentation processes. Their ability to learn from a large amount of datasets through artificial intelligence makes them particularly effective models. The primary obstacle in improving the performance of these models is to carefully choose the suitable hyperparameters, including the neural network architecture (number of hidden layers and hidden units), activation function, optimizer, learning rate, and other relevant factors. This study predicts biogas production from real wastewater treatment plant data using a sophisticated approach: hybrid Bayesian optimization with a tree-structured Parzen estimator (BO-TPE) for an optimised deep neural network (DNN) model. The plant utilizes an Upflow Anaerobic Sludge Blanket (UASB) digester that treats industrial wastewater from soft drinks and breweries. The digester has a working volume of 1574 m3 and a total volume of 1914 m3. Its internal diameter and height were 19 and 7.14 m, respectively. The data preprocessing was conducted with meticulous attention to preserving data quality while avoiding data reduction. Three normalization techniques were applied to the pre-processed data (MinMaxScaler, RobustScaler and StandardScaler) and compared with the Non-Normalized data. The RobustScaler approach has strong predictive ability for estimating the volume of biogas produced. The highest predicted biogas volume was 2236.105 Nm³/d, with coefficient of determination (R2), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) values of 0.712, 164.610, and 223.429, respectively.

Keywords: anaerobic digestion, biogas production, deep neural network, hybrid bo-tpe, hyperparameters tuning

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Authors: Xuechen Chen

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The EU-ASEAN relations which can be dated back to 1972 represents one of the oldest group-to-group relationship in international politics. Despite a longstanding dialogue partnership, the EU and ASEAN have long been reluctant to forge deeper and substantial cooperation in political and security domains. However, the year of 2012 witnessed a salient shift in EU-ASEAN relations, with the EU significantly elevating ASEAN's profile in its external relations. Given the limited scholarly attention that has been devoted to this change in ASEAN-EU relations, this article explores why there has been a greater level of engagement and approximation between the EU and ASEAN. In particular, it asks why the EU, which had long been reluctant to recognize ASEAN as a strategic partner, has changed its policy towards ASEAN. Drawing on social constructivism, this article argues that the EU’s and ASEAN’s evolving identity-formation processes have played a significant role in reshaping their mutual perceptions, which subsequently leads to the modification of the interregional policies of both actors. The methodology of this study is based on content analysis of a wide range of official documents and policy papers from the EU and ASEAN, as well as more than 20 in-depth elite interviews with diplomats and experts working on the EU-ASEAN relationship from both organisations. Departing from the existing works which mainly adopt a Eurocentric perspective when analysing the EU-ASEAN interregionalism, this study suggests that the approximation of the EU-ASEAN relationship between 2012 and 2017 is driven by both actors’ adjustment of international identities, together with the internal dynamics and systematic changes within both regions.

Keywords: Association of Southeast Asia Nations, European Union, EU foreign policy, interregionalism

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Authors: Fred N. H. Parker, Nicola T. Fear, S. A. M. Stevelink, L. Rafferty

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Purpose Auditory problems, such as hearing loss and tinnitus, have been associated with mental health problems and alcohol misuse in the UK general population and in the US Armed Forces; however, few studies have examined these associations within the UK Armed Forces. The present study examined the association between auditory problems and probable common mental disorders, post-traumatic stress disorder and alcohol misuse. Methods 5474 serving and ex-service personnel from the UK Armed Forces were examined, selected from those who responded to phase two (data collection 2007–09) and phase three (2014–16) of a military cohort study. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine the association between auditory problems at phase two and mental health problems at phase three. Results 9.7% of participants reported ever experiencing hearing problems alone, 7.9% reported tinnitus within the last month alone, and 7.8% reported hearing problems with tinnitus. After adjustment, hearing problems with tinnitus at phase two was associated with increased odds of probable common mental disorders (AOR = 1.50, 95% CI 1.09–2.08), post-traumatic stress disorder (AOR = 2.30, 95% CI 1.41–3.76), and alcohol misuse (AOR = 1.94, 95% CI 1.28–2.96) at phase three. Tinnitus alone was associated with probable post-traumatic stress disorder (AOR = 1.80, 95% CI 1.03–3.15); however, hearing problems alone were not associated with any outcomes of interest. Conclusions The association between auditory problems and mental health problems emphasizes the importance of the prevention of auditory problems in the Armed Forces: through enhanced audiometric screening, improved hearing protection equipment, and greater levels of utilization of such equipment.

Keywords: armed forces, hearing problems, tinnitus, mental health, alcohol misuse

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Authors: Yung-Feng Yen, Yun-Ju Lai

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Background: Animal studies have shown that alcohol exposure may cause immunosuppression and increase the susceptibility to tuberculosis (TB) infection. However, the temporality of alcohol consumption with subsequent TB development remains unclear. This nationwide population-based cohort study aimed to investigate the impact of alcohol exposure on TB development in Taiwanese adults. Methods: We included 46 196 adult participants from three rounds (2001, 2005, 2009) of the Taiwan National Health Interview Survey. Alcohol consumption was classified into heavy, regular, social, or never alcohol use. Heavy alcohol consumption was defined as intoxication at least once/week. Alcohol consumption and other covariates were collected by in-person interviews at baseline. Incident cases of active TB were identified from the National Health Insurance database. Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the association between alcohol consumption and active TB, with adjustment for age, sex, smoking, socioeconomic status, and other covariates. Results: A total of 279 new cases of active TB occurred during the study follow-up period. Heavy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 5.21; 95% confident interval [CI], 2.41-11.26) and regular alcohol use (AOR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.26-2.38) were associated with higher risks of incident TB after adjusting for the subject demographics and comorbidities. Moreover, a strong dose-response effect was observed between increasing alcohol consumption and incident TB (AOR, 2.26; 95% CI, 1.59-3.21; P <.001). Conclusion: Heavy and regular alcohol consumption were associated with higher risks of active TB. Future TB control programs should consider strategies to lower the overall level of alcohol consumption to reduce the TB disease burden.

Keywords: alcohol consumption, tuberculosis, risk factor, cohort study

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Authors: Wai M. Shum

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There was evidence that the change of marital quality satisfaction was related to the different stages of the family life cycle. Research studies have been largely based on western contexts, which found a curvilinear U-shaped trend in changes of marital satisfaction over the course of a marriage, but little is known about the marital experiences of Hong Kong couples. Through in-depth interviews, this qualitative study explored the marital relationship of middle-aged couples in a satisfying marriage and to identify how couples maintain a satisfying relationship in the local context. Findings from this study suggested twelve themes with some showing consistency with previous literature, such as communication, companionship, trust, and fidelity. The affective aspects of empathetic understanding and perceived empathy were found to have an enormous effect on couples’ bondedness. The high level of differentiation and security served as a basis for unconditional contribution, acceptance, and adjustment to unsolvable issues such that negative emotion would not be escalated. The manifestations of intimacy and commitment in the triangular theory of love were more frequently addressed than passion in striving for marital longevity in the local context. This study challenged the curvilinear trend of marital satisfaction throughout marriage, with couples showing different pathways of marital satisfaction. The study gave insights on martial enrichment, such as facilitating couples to disclose their vulnerabilities, desire for physical intimacy, and passion in the pursuit of enduring marriage instead of an emphasis on skills training on communication and conflict resolution.

Keywords: intimacy, marital relationship, marital satisfaction, middle-aged

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Authors: Putri Mentari Racharjo

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The development of current technology is simplifying globalization process. An easier globalization process and mobilization are increasing interactions among individuals and societies in different countries. It is also easier for foreign culture to enter a country and create changes to the society. Differences brought by foreign culture will most likely affect any society. It will be easier for heterogeneous society to accept new culture, considering that they have various cultures, and they are used to differences. So it will be easier for a heterogeneous society to accept new culture as long as the culture is not contrary to their essential values. However for a homogenous society, where they have only one language and culture, it will take a longer adjustment time to fully accept the new culture. There will be a tendency for homogenous societies to react in a more negative way to new culture. Greece and South Korea are the examples for homogeneous societies. Greece, a destination country for immigrants, is having a hard time adjusting themselves to accept many immigrants with many cultures. There are various discrimination cases of immigrants in Greece, when the Greek society cannot fully accept the new culture brought by immigrants. South Korea, a newly popular country with K-pop and K-dramas, is attracting people from all over the world to come to South Korea. However a homogenous South Korean society is also having a hard time to fully accept foreign cultures, resulting in many discrimination cases based on race and culture in South Korea. With a qualitative method through a case study and literature review, this article will discuss about Greek and South Korean societies reaction to new cultures as an effect of globalization.

Keywords: foreign culture, globalization, greece, homogenous society, South Korea

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Authors: Rosiris Maturo Domingues, Patricia Luissa Masmo, Cibele Cavalheiro Neves, Juliana Dalla Martha Rodriguez

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This article reports the experience of the pedagogical consultants responsible for the curriculum development of Senac São Paulo courses when facing the emergency need to maintain the pedagogical process in their schools in the face of the Covid-19 pandemic. The urgent adjustment to distance education resulted in the improvement of the process and the adoption of new teaching and learning strategies mediated by technologies. The processes for preparing and providing guidelines for professional education courses were also readjusted. Thus, a bank of teaching-learning strategies linked to digital resources was developed, categorized, and identified by their didactic-pedagogical potential, having as an intersection didactic planning based on learning objectives based on Bloom's taxonomy (revised), given its convergence with the competency approach adopted by Senac. Methodologically, a relationship was established between connectivity and digital networks and digital evolution in school environments, culminating in new paradigms and processes of educational communication and new trends in teaching and learning. As a result, teachers adhered to the use of digital tools in their practices, transposing face-to-face classroom methodologies and practices to online media, whose criticism was the use of ICTs in an instrumental way, reducing methodologies and practices to teaching only transmissive. There was recognition of the insertion of technology as a facilitator of the educational process in a non-palliative way and the development of a web curriculum, now and fully, carried out in contexts of ubiquity.

Keywords: technologies, education, teaching-learning strategies, Bloom taxonomy

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Authors: Hisham Motkal Abu-Rayya, Maram Hussein Abu-Rayya

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Education in religious private schools raises questions regarding identity, belonging and adaptation in multicultural Australia. This research project aimed at examined cultural identification styles among Australian adolescent Muslims studying in Muslim schools, adolescents’ religiosity and the interconnections between cultural identification styles, religiosity, and adaptation. Two Muslim high school samples were recruited for the purposes of this study, one from Muslim schools in metropolitan Sydney and one from Muslim schools in metropolitan Melbourne. Participants filled in a survey measuring themes of the current study. Findings revealed that the majority of Australian adolescent Muslims showed a preference for the integration identification style (55.2%); separation was less prevailing (26.9%), followed by assimilation (9.7%) and marginalisation (8.3%). Supporting evidence suggests that the styles of identification were valid representation of the participants’ identification. A series of hierarchical regression analyses revealed that while adolescents’ preference for integration of their cultural and Australian identities was advantageous for a range of their psychological and socio-cultural adaptation measures, marginalisation was consistently the worst. Further hierarchical regression analyses showed that adolescent Muslims’ religiosity was better for a range of their adaptation measures compared to their preference for an integration acculturation style. Theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Keywords: adaptation, identity, multiculturalism, religious school education

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Authors: Andres Diaz Garcia, Ana Maria Ceballos Rojas, Duvan Albeiro Millan Montano

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This paper describes the initial technological development stages in the area of liquid fermentation required to reach the quantities of biomass of the biofertilizer microorganism Rhizobium sp. strain B02, for the application of the unitary stages downstream at laboratory scale. In the first stage, the adjustment and standardization of the fermentation process in conventional batch mode were carried out. In the second stage, various fed-batch and continuous fermentation strategies were evaluated in 10L-bioreactor in order to optimize the yields in concentration (Colony Forming Units/ml•h) and biomass (g/l•h), to make feasible the application of unit operations downstream of process. The growth kinetics, the evolution of dissolved oxygen and the pH profile generated in each of the strategies were monitored and used to make sequential adjustments. Once the fermentation was finished, the final concentration and viability of the obtained biomass were determined and performance parameters were calculated with the purpose of select the optimal operating conditions that significantly improved the baseline results. Under the conditions adjusted and standardized in batch mode, concentrations of 6.67E9 CFU/ml were reached after 27 hours of fermentation and a subsequent noticeable decrease was observed associated with a basification of the culture medium. By applying fed-batch and continuous strategies, significant increases in yields were achieved, but with similar concentration levels, which involved the design of several production scenarios based on the availability of equipment usage time and volume of required batch.

Keywords: biofertilizer, liquid fermentation, Rhizobium sp., standardization of processes

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Authors: Rupali, Anil Kumar Jaiswal

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Cloud computing can be defined as one of the prominent technologies that lets a user change, configure and access the services online. it can be said that this is a prototype of computing that helps in saving cost and time of a user practically the use of cloud computing can be found in various fields like education, health, banking etc.  Cloud computing is an internet dependent technology thus it is the major responsibility of Cloud Service Providers(CSPs) to care of data stored by user at data centers. Scheduling in cloud computing environment plays a vital role as to achieve maximum utilization and user satisfaction cloud providers need to schedule resources effectively.  Job scheduling for cloud computing is analyzed in the following work. To complete, recreate the task calculation, and conveyed scheduling methods CloudSim3.0.3 is utilized. This research work discusses the job scheduling for circulated processing condition also by exploring on this issue we find it works with minimum time and less cost. In this work two load balancing techniques have been employed: ‘Throttled stack adjustment policy’ and ‘Active VM load balancing policy’ with two brokerage services ‘Advanced Response Time’ and ‘Reconfigure Dynamically’ to evaluate the VM_Cost, DC_Cost, Response Time, and Data Processing Time. The proposed techniques are compared with Round Robin scheduling policy.

Keywords: physical machines, virtual machines, support for repetition, self-healing, highly scalable programming model

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Authors: Anne McCarthy, Anna Kim, Yin Song, Kyoo Jo, Donald Cropek, Sungmin Hong

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Corrosion prevention remains an indispensable concern across a spectrum of industries, demanding inventive and adaptable methodologies to effectively tackle the ever-evolving obstacles presented by corrosive surroundings. This abstract introduces a pioneering approach to corrosion prevention that amalgamates the distinct attributes of magneto-responsive polymers with finely adjustable hydrophobicity inspired by the structure of cicada wings, effectively deterring bacterial proliferation and biofilm formation. The proposed strategy entails the creation of an innovative array of magneto-responsive nanostructures endowed with the capacity to dynamically modulate their hydrophobic characteristics. This dynamic control over hydrophobicity facilitates active repulsion of water and corrosive agents on demand. Additionally, the cyclic motion generated by magnetic activation prevents the biofilms formation and rejection. Thus, the synergistic interplay between magneto-active nanostructures and hydrophobicity manipulation establishes a versatile defensive mechanism against diverse corrosive agents. This study introduces a novel method for corrosion prevention, harnessing the advantages of magneto-active nanostructures and the precision of hydrophobicity adjustment, resulting in water-repellency, effective biofilm removal, and offering a promising solution to handle corrosion-related challenges. We believe that the combined effect will significantly contribute to extending asset lifespan, improving safety, and reducing maintenance costs in the face of corrosion threats.

Keywords: magneto-active material, nanoimprinting, corrosion prevention, hydrophobicity

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Authors: S. K. Ashiquer Rahman

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The proper policy handling might not able to attain the target since some of recessions, e.g., pandemic-led crises, the variables shocks of the economics. At the level of this situation, the Central bank implements the monetary policy to choose increase the exogenous expenditure and level of money supply consecutively for booster level economic growth, whether the monetary policy is relatively more effective than fiscal policy in altering real output growth of a country or both stand for relatively effective in the direction of output growth of a country. The dispute with reference to the relationship between the monetary policy and fiscal policy is centered on the inflationary penalty of the shortfall financing by the fiscal authority. The latest variables socks of economics as well as the pandemic-led crises, central banks around the world predicted just about a general dilemma in relation to increase rates to face the or decrease rates to sustain the economic movement. Whether the prices hang about fundamentally unaffected, the aggregate demand has also been hold a significantly negative attitude by the outbreak COVID-19 pandemic. To empirically investigate the effects of economics shocks associated COVID-19 pandemic, the paper considers the effectiveness of the monetary policy and fiscal policy that linked to the adjustment mechanism of different economic variables. To examine the effects of economics shock associated COVID-19 pandemic towards the effectiveness of Monetary Policy and Fiscal Policy in the direction of output growth of a Country, this paper uses the Simultaneous equations model under the estimation of Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) and Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method.

Keywords: IS-LM framework, pandemic. Economics variables shocks, simultaneous equations model, output growth

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Authors: In Hee Shim, Dong Sik Bae

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Introduction: Obesity and unfavorable lipid profile may be linked to depressive disorders. This study compared the levels of obesity, lipid profiles and depression severity of patients with depressive disorders. Methods: This study included 156 patients diagnosed with a depressive disorder who were hospitalized between March 2012 and February 2016. The patients were categorized into mild to moderate and severe depressive groups, based on Hamilton Depression Rating Scale scores (Mild to moderate depression 8-23 vs. severe depression ≥ 24). The charts of the patients were reviewed to evaluate body mass index and lipid profiles, including total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, and triglycerides (TG), confounding factors, such as other general medical disorders (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and dyslipidemia), except smoking status (insufficient data). Demographic and clinical characteristics, such as age, sex, comorbidities, family history of mood disorders, psychotic features, and prescription patterns were also assessed. Results: Compared to the mild to the moderate depressive group, patients with severe depression had significantly lower rate of male and comorbidity. The patients with severe depression had a significantly lower TG than patients in the mild to moderate depressive group. After adjustment for the sex and comorbidity, there were no significant differences between the two groups in terms of the obesity and lipid profiles, including TG. Conclusion: These results did not show a significant difference in the association between obesity, lipid profiles and the depression severity. The role of obesity and lipid profiles in the pathophysiology of depression remains to be clarified.

Keywords: depression, HAM-D, lipid profiles, obesity

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Authors: Michele Romanello

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COVID-19 has spread rapidly in Brazil since March 2020, making the country one of the most affected in the world by the pandemic. From an economic point of view, Brazil came from a pre-pandemic period characterized by low or negative growth, with a resulting increase in the number of unemployed and informal workers. This paper considers lockdown implementation in the situation of the large presence of informality in the economy. The objective of the paper is to analyze how the country has tried to help workers affected by economic crisis after the implementation of measures against COVID-19 and whether the emergency assistance from the government has been adequate to contain the increase of informal workers and unemployed. The methodology used in this paper is survival analysis. Through this methodology, the formality – informality, and informality – unemployment transitions are analyzed. This analysis draws data from the Continuous National Household Sample Survey (Continuous PNAD) and from the National Household Sample Survey COVID-19 (PNAD COVID-19) covering the period of January 2020 – July 2020. The results indicate that emergency aid has been not sufficient to reduce the transitions of workers from formal to informal jobs and from informal jobs to unemployment. Emergency aid has been not sufficient considering the previous situation of the country, with levels of poverty and inequality very high. In the next months, another fundamental determinant of the income trajectory in the context of the COVID-19 crisis will be the continuity of the emergency aid, especially considering the fiscal adjustment policy pursued by the government. Therefore, the current negative portrait may be even worse in the coming months.

Keywords: Brazil, COVID-19, informality, survival analysis

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Authors: Claire Stafford, Charles Golden, Daniel Amen, Kristen Willeumier

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The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of the administration of the Conners Continuous Performance Test (CPT-3) on cerebral blood flow (CBF) in adults with ADHD. The data for this study was derived from a large SPECT database. Participants in the ADHD group (n=81, Mage=37.97) were similar to those in the healthy control group (n=8503, Mage=41.86). All participants were assessed for cerebral blood flow levels before and after CPT-3 administration. Both age and gender were considered covariates. Multiple 2-by-2 ANCOVAs with repeated measures were conducted with sphericity assumed. The main effects of CPT-3 administration on CBF levels were significant in the left and right side of the frontal and occipital, and right temporal lobe. The main effects of ADHD diagnosis were significant in all brain areas assessed. The interaction between CPT-3 administration and ADHD diagnosis was significant in the left and right side of the limbic system, basal ganglia, the frontal lobe, and occipital lobe. Post hoc tests with a Bonferroni adjustment revealed that CBF levels increased following CPT-3 administration but less so in the ADHD group. Individuals had higher levels of CBF following the administration of CPT-3. Due to a significant interaction, we can infer that ADHD diagnosis changes the effect of CPT-3 administration on CBF levels. This is consistent with our hypothesis considering that CPT-3 is a test of sustained attention, a common challenge for children with ADHD. The aforementioned interaction was not found to be significant in the parietal lobe. This may be due to the nature of CPT- 3 which does not require an integration of sensory information.

Keywords: SPECT, ADHD, conners continuous performance test, cerebral blood flow

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Authors: Eyitayo Francis Adanlawo

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Television is one of humanity’s most important means of communication, a channel through which societal norms and values can be transferred to youths. The imagination created by foreign television programmes ultimately leads to strong emotional responses. Though some foreign films and programmes are educational in nature, the view that the majority of them are inimical to the youths’ positive-believe-system is rife. This has been occasioned by the adoption of repugnant alien cultures, imitation of vulgar slangs, weird hairdo and most visibly an adjustment in values. This study theoretically approaches two research questions: do youths act out the life style of characters seeing in foreign films? Is moral decadence, indiscipline, and vulgar habits being the results of the contents of foreign programmes and films? To establish the basis for relating foreign films watched to social vices as violence, sexual pervasiveness, cultural and traditional moral pollution on youths; Observational learning Theory and Reinnforcement Theory were utilized to answer the research questions and established the effect of foreign films content on youths. We conclude that constant showcasing of violent themes was highly responsible for the upsurge in social vices prevalent among the youths and can destroy the basis of the societal, cultural orientation. Recommendations made range from the need for government to halt the importation of foreign films not censored; the need for local films to portray more positive messages and the need for concrete steps to be taken to eradicate or minimise the use of programme capable of exerting negative influence.

Keywords: media (television), moral decadence, youths, values, observation learning theory, reinforcement theory

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Authors: Ayoub. El Bourtali, Abdessamed.Najine, Amrou Moussa. Benmoussa

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One of the main goals of river engineering is river training, which is defined as controlling and predicting the behavior of a river. It is taking effective measurements to eliminate all related risks and thus improve the river system. In some rivers, the riverbed continues to erode and degrade; therefore, equilibrium will never be reached. Generally, river geometric characteristics and riverbed erosion analysis are some of the most complex but critical topics in river engineering and sediment hydraulics; riverbank erosion is the second answering process in hydrodynamics, which has a major impact on the ecological chain and socio-economic process. This study aims to integrate the new computer technology that can analyze erosion and hydraulic problems through computer simulation and modeling. Choosing the right model remains a difficult and sensitive job for field engineers. This paper makes use of the 5.0.4 version of the HEC-RAS model. The river section is adopted according to the gauged station and the proximity of the adjustment. In this work, we will demonstrate how 2D hydraulic modeling helped clarify the design and cover visuals to set up depth and velocities at riverbanks and throughout advanced structures. The hydrologic engineering center's-river analysis system (HEC-RAS) 2D model was used to create a hydraulic study of the erosion model. The geometric data were generated from the 12.5-meter x 12.5-meter resolution digital elevation model. In addition to showing eroded or overturned river sections, the model output also shows patterns of riverbank changes, which can help us reduce problems caused by erosion.

Keywords: 2D hydraulics model, erosion, floodplain, hydrodynamic, HEC-RAS, riverbed erosion, river morphology, resolution digital data, sediment

Procedia PDF Downloads 181