Search results for: regression curves
3413 Functional Decomposition Based Effort Estimation Model for Software-Intensive Systems
Authors: Nermin Sökmen
Abstract:
An effort estimation model is needed for software-intensive projects that consist of hardware, embedded software or some combination of the two, as well as high level software solutions. This paper first focuses on functional decomposition techniques to measure functional complexity of a computer system and investigates its impact on system development effort. Later, it examines effects of technical difficulty and design team capability factors in order to construct the best effort estimation model. With using traditional regression analysis technique, the study develops a system development effort estimation model which takes functional complexity, technical difficulty and design team capability factors as input parameters. Finally, the assumptions of the model are tested.Keywords: functional complexity, functional decomposition, development effort, technical difficulty, design team capability, regression analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 2863412 Biases in Numerically Invariant Joint Signatures
Authors: Reza Aghayan
Abstract:
This paper illustrates that numerically invariant joint signatures suffer biases in the resulting signatures. Next, we classify the arising biases as Bias Type 1 and Bias Type 2 and show how they can be removed.Keywords: Euclidean and affine geometries, differential invariant signature curves, numerically invariant joint signatures, numerical analysis, numerical bias, curve analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 5883411 Heart Ailment Prediction Using Machine Learning Methods
Authors: Abhigyan Hedau, Priya Shelke, Riddhi Mirajkar, Shreyash Chaple, Mrunali Gadekar, Himanshu Akula
Abstract:
The heart is the coordinating centre of the major endocrine glandular structure of the body, which produces hormones that profoundly affect the operations of the body, and diagnosing cardiovascular disease is a difficult but critical task. By extracting knowledge and information about the disease from patient data, data mining is a more practical technique to help doctors detect disorders. We use a variety of machine learning methods here, including logistic regression and support vector classifiers (SVC), K-nearest neighbours Classifiers (KNN), Decision Tree Classifiers, Random Forest classifiers and Gradient Boosting classifiers. These algorithms are applied to patient data containing 13 different factors to build a system that predicts heart disease in less time with more accuracy.Keywords: logistic regression, support vector classifier, k-nearest neighbour, decision tree, random forest and gradient boosting
Procedia PDF Downloads 413410 A Case Comparative Study of Infant Mortality Rate in North-West Nigeria
Authors: G. I. Onwuka, A. Danbaba, S. U. Gulumbe
Abstract:
This study investigated of Infant Mortality Rate as observed at a general hospital in Kaduna-South, Kaduna State, North West Nigeria. The causes of infant Mortality were examined. The data used for this analysis were collected at the statistics unit of the Hospital. The analysis was carried out on the data using Multiple Linear regression Technique and this showed that there is linear relationship between the dependent variable (death) and the independent variables (malaria, measles, anaemia, and coronary heart disease). The resultant model also revealed that a unit increment in each of these diseases would result to a unit increment in death recorded, 98.7% of the total variation in mortality is explained by the given model. The highest number of mortality was recorded in July, 2005 and the lowest mortality recorded in October, 2009.Recommendations were however made based on the results of the study.Keywords: infant mortality rate, multiple linear regression, diseases, serial correlation
Procedia PDF Downloads 3193409 Investigating the Effect of Study Plan and Homework on Student's Performance by Using Web Based Learning MyMathLab
Authors: Mohamed Chabi, Mahmoud I. Syam, Sarah Aw
Abstract:
In Summer 2012, the Foundation Program Unit of Qatar University has started implementing new ways of teaching Math by introducing MML (MyMathLab) as an innovative interactive tool to support standard teaching. In this paper, we focused on the effect of proper use of the Study Plan component of MML on student’s performance. Authors investigated the results of students of pre-calculus course during Fall 2013 in Foundation Program at Qatar University. The results showed that there is a strong correlation between study plan results and final exam results, also a strong relation between homework results and final exam results. In addition, the attendance average affected on the student’s results in general. Multiple regression is determined between passing rate dependent variable and study plan, homework as independent variable.Keywords: MyMathLab, study plan, assessment, homework, attendance, correlation, regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 4153408 Mediterranean Diet, Duration of Admission and Mortality in Elderly, Hospitalized Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: Christos Lampropoulos, Maria Konsta, Ifigenia Apostolou, Vicky Dradaki, Tamta Sirbilatze, Irini Dri, Christina Kordali, Vaggelis Lambas, Kostas Argyros, Georgios Mavras
Abstract:
Objectives: Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower incidence of cardiovascular disease and cancer. The purpose of our study was to examine the hypothesis that Mediterranean diet may protect against mortality and reduce admission duration in elderly, hospitalized patients. Methods: Sample population included 150 patients (78 men, 72 women, mean age 80±8.2). The following data were taken into account in analysis: anthropometric and laboratory data, dietary habits (MedDiet score), patients’ nutritional status [Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) score], physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaires, IPAQ), smoking status, cause and duration of current admission, medical history (co-morbidities, previous admissions). Primary endpoints were mortality (from admission until 6 months afterwards) and duration of admission, compared to national guidelines for closed consolidated medical expenses. Logistic regression and linear regression analysis were performed in order to identify independent predictors for mortality and admission duration difference respectively. Results: According to MNA, nutrition was normal in 54/150 (36%) of patients, 46/150 (30.7%) of them were at risk of malnutrition and the rest 50/150 (33.3%) were malnourished. After performing multivariate logistic regression analysis we found that the odds of death decreased 30% per each unit increase of MedDiet score (OR=0.7, 95% CI:0.6-0.8, p < 0.0001). Patients with cancer-related admission were 37.7 times more likely to die, compared to those with infection (OR=37.7, 95% CI:4.4-325, p=0.001). According to multivariate linear regression analysis, admission duration was inversely related to Mediterranean diet, since it is decreased 0.18 days on average for each unit increase of MedDiet score (b:-0.18, 95% CI:-0.33 - -0.035, p=0.02). Additionally, the duration of current admission increased on average 0.83 days for each previous hospital admission (b:0.83, 95% CI:0.5-1.16, p<0.0001). The admission duration of patients with cancer was on average 4.5 days higher than the patients who admitted due to infection (b:4.5, 95% CI:0.9-8, p=0.015). Conclusion: Mediterranean diet adequately protects elderly, hospitalized patients against mortality and reduces the duration of hospitalization.Keywords: Mediterranean diet, malnutrition, nutritional status, prognostic factors for mortality
Procedia PDF Downloads 3053407 The Effect of User Comments on Traffic Application Usage
Authors: I. Gokasar, G. Bakioglu
Abstract:
With the unprecedented rates of technological improvements, people start to solve their problems with the help of technological tools. According to application stores and websites in which people evaluate and comment on the traffic apps, there are more than 100 traffic applications which have different features with respect to their purpose of usage ranging from the features of traffic apps for public transit modes to the features of traffic apps for private cars. This study focuses on the top 30 traffic applications which were chosen with respect to their download counts. All data about the traffic applications were obtained from related websites. The purpose of this study is to analyze traffic applications in terms of their categorical attributes with the help of developing a regression model. The analysis results suggest that negative interpretations (e.g., being deficient) does not lead to lower star ratings of the applications. However, those negative interpretations result in a smaller increase in star rate. In addition, women use higher star rates than men for the evaluation of traffic applications.Keywords: traffic app, real–time information, traffic congestion, regression analysis, dummy variables
Procedia PDF Downloads 4213406 Association of a Genetic Polymorphism in Cytochrome P450, Family 1 with Risk of Developing Esophagus Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Authors: Soodabeh Shahid Sales, Azam Rastgar Moghadam, Mehrane Mehramiz, Malihe Entezari, Kazem Anvari, Mohammad Sadegh Khorrami, Saeideh Ahmadi Simab, Ali Moradi, Seyed Mahdi Hassanian, Majid Ghayour-Mobarhan, Gordon A. Ferns, Amir Avan
Abstract:
Background Esophageal cancer has been reported as the eighth most common cancer universal and the seventh cause of cancer-related death in men .recent studies have revealed that cytochrome P450, family 1, subfamily B, polypeptide 1, which plays a role in metabolizing xenobiotics, is associated with different cancers. Therefore in the present study, we investigated the impact of CYP1B1-rs1056836 on esophagus squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients. Method: 317 subjects, with and without ESCC were recruited. DNA was extracted and genotyped via Real-time PCR-Based Taq Man. Kaplan Meier curves were utilized to assess overall and progression-free survival. To evaluate the relationship between patients clinicopathological data, genotypic frequencies, disease prognosis, and patients survival, Pearson chi-square and t-test were used. Logistic regression was utilized to assess the association between the risk of ESCC and genotypes. Results: the genotypic frequency for GG, GC, and CC are respectively 58.6% , 29.8%, 11.5% in the healthy group and 51.8%, 36.14% and 12% in ESCC group. With respect to the recessive genetic inheritance model, an association between the GG genotype and stage of ESCC were found. Also, statistically significant results were not found for this variation and risk of ESCC. Patients with GG genotype had a decreased risk of nodal metastasis in comparison with patients with CC/CG genotype, although this link was not statistically significant. Conclusion: Our findings illustrated the correlation of CYP1B1-rs1056836 as a potential biomarker for ESCC patients, supporting further studies in larger populations in different ethnic groups. Moreover, further investigations are warranted to evaluate the association of emerging marker with dietary intake and lifestyle.Keywords: Cytochrome P450, esophagus squamous cell carcinoma, dietary intake, lifestyle
Procedia PDF Downloads 1953405 A Remote Sensing Approach to Estimate the Paleo-Discharge of the Lost Saraswati River of North-West India
Authors: Zafar Beg, Kumar Gaurav
Abstract:
The lost Saraswati is described as a large perennial river which was 'lost' in the desert towards the end of the Indus-Saraswati civilisation. It has been proposed earlier that the lost Saraswati flowed in the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve, parallel to the present day Indus River. It is believed that one of the earliest known ancient civilizations, the 'Indus-Saraswati civilization' prospered along the course of the Saraswati River. The demise of the Indus civilization is considered to be due to desiccation of the river. Today in the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve, we observe an ephemeral river, known as Ghaggar. It is believed that along with the Ghaggar River, two other Himalayan Rivers Sutlej and Yamuna were tributaries of the lost Saraswati and made a significant contribution to its discharge. Presence of a large number of archaeological sites and the occurrence of thick fluvial sand bodies in the subsurface in the Sutlej-Yamuna interfluve has been used to suggest that the Saraswati River was a large perennial river. Further, the wider course of about 4-7 km recognized from satellite imagery of Ghaggar-Hakra belt in between Suratgarh and Anupgarh strengthens this hypothesis. Here we develop a methodology to estimate the paleo discharge and paleo width of the lost Saraswati River. In doing so, we rely on the hypothesis which suggests that the ancient Saraswati River used to carry the combined flow or some part of the Yamuna, Sutlej and Ghaggar catchments. We first established a regime relationship between the drainage area-channel width and catchment area-discharge of 29 different rivers presently flowing on the Himalayan Foreland from Indus in the west to the Brahmaputra in the East. We found the width and discharge of all the Himalayan rivers scale in a similar way when they are plotted against their corresponding catchment area. Using these regime curves, we calculate the width and discharge of paleochannels originating from the Sutlej, Yamuna and Ghaggar rivers by measuring their corresponding catchment area from satellite images. Finally, we add the discharge and width obtained from each of the individual catchments to estimate the paleo width and paleo discharge respectively of the Saraswati River. Our regime curves provide a first-order estimate of the paleo discharge of the lost Saraswati.Keywords: Indus civilization, palaeochannel, regime curve, Saraswati River
Procedia PDF Downloads 1773404 Impact of Trade Cooperation of BRICS Countries on Economic Growth
Authors: Svetlana Gusarova
Abstract:
The essential role in the recent development of world economy has led to the developing countries, notably to BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). Over the next 50 years the BRICS countries are expected to be the engines of global trade and economic growth. Trade cooperation of BRICS countries can enhance their economic development. BRICS countries were among Top 10 world exporters of office and telecom equipment, of textiles, of clothing, of iron and steel, of chemicals, of agricultural products, of automotive products, of fuel and mining products. China was one of the main trading partners of all BRICS countries, maintaining close relationship with all BRICS countries in the development of trade. Author analyzed trade complementarity of BRICS countries and revealed the high level of complementarity of their trade flows in connection with availability of specialization in different types of goods. The correlation and regression analysis of communication of Intra-BRICS merchandise turnover and their GDP (PPP) revealed very strong impact on the development of their economies.Keywords: BRICS countries, trade cooperation, complementarity, regression analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 2773403 Atomic Decomposition Audio Data Compression and Denoising Using Sparse Dictionary Feature Learning
Authors: T. Bryan , V. Kepuska, I. Kostnaic
Abstract:
A method of data compression and denoising is introduced that is based on atomic decomposition of audio data using “basis vectors” that are learned from the audio data itself. The basis vectors are shown to have higher data compression and better signal-to-noise enhancement than the Gabor and gammatone “seed atoms” that were used to generate them. The basis vectors are the input weights of a Sparse AutoEncoder (SAE) that is trained using “envelope samples” of windowed segments of the audio data. The envelope samples are extracted from the audio data by performing atomic decomposition with Gabor or gammatone seed atoms. This process identifies segments of audio data that are locally coherent with the seed atoms. Envelope samples are extracted by identifying locally coherent audio data segments with Gabor or gammatone seed atoms, found by matching pursuit. The envelope samples are formed by taking the kronecker products of the atomic envelopes with the locally coherent data segments. Oracle signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) verses data compression curves are generated for the seed atoms as well as the basis vectors learned from Gabor and gammatone seed atoms. SNR data compression curves are generated for speech signals as well as early American music recordings. The basis vectors are shown to have higher denoising capability for data compression rates ranging from 90% to 99.84% for speech as well as music. Envelope samples are displayed as images by folding the time series into column vectors. This display method is used to compare of the output of the SAE with the envelope samples that produced them. The basis vectors are also displayed as images. Sparsity is shown to play an important role in producing the highest denoising basis vectors.Keywords: sparse dictionary learning, autoencoder, sparse autoencoder, basis vectors, atomic decomposition, envelope sampling, envelope samples, Gabor, gammatone, matching pursuit
Procedia PDF Downloads 2463402 Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System Model Based on Support Vector Regression for Stock Time Series Forecasting
Authors: Anita Setianingrum, Oki S. Jaya, Zuherman Rustam
Abstract:
Forecasting stock price is a challenging task due to the complex time series of the data. The complexity arises from many variables that affect the stock market. Many time series models have been proposed before, but those previous models still have some problems: 1) put the subjectivity of choosing the technical indicators, and 2) rely upon some assumptions about the variables, so it is limited to be applied to all datasets. Therefore, this paper studied a novel Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) time series model based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) for forecasting the stock market. In order to evaluate the performance of proposed models, stock market transaction data of TAIEX and HIS from January to December 2015 is collected as experimental datasets. As a result, the method has outperformed its counterparts in terms of accuracy.Keywords: ANFIS, fuzzy time series, stock forecasting, SVR
Procedia PDF Downloads 2383401 An Inquiry of the Impact of Flood Risk on Housing Market with Enhanced Geographically Weighted Regression
Authors: Lin-Han Chiang Hsieh, Hsiao-Yi Lin
Abstract:
This study aims to determine the impact of the disclosure of flood potential map on housing prices. The disclosure is supposed to mitigate the market failure by reducing information asymmetry. On the other hand, opponents argue that the official disclosure of simulated results will only create unnecessary disturbances on the housing market. This study identifies the impact of the disclosure of the flood potential map by comparing the hedonic price of flood potential before and after the disclosure. The flood potential map used in this study is published by Taipei municipal government in 2015, which is a result of a comprehensive simulation based on geographical, hydrological, and meteorological factors. The residential property sales data of 2013 to 2016 is used in this study, which is collected from the actual sales price registration system by the Department of Land Administration (DLA). The result shows that the impact of flood potential on residential real estate market is statistically significant both before and after the disclosure. But the trend is clearer after the disclosure, suggesting that the disclosure does have an impact on the market. Also, the result shows that the impact of flood potential differs by the severity and frequency of precipitation. The negative impact for a relatively mild, high frequency flood potential is stronger than that for a heavy, low possibility flood potential. The result indicates that home buyers are of more concern to the frequency, than the intensity of flood. Another contribution of this study is in the methodological perspective. The classic hedonic price analysis with OLS regression suffers from two spatial problems: the endogeneity problem caused by omitted spatial-related variables, and the heterogeneity concern to the presumption that regression coefficients are spatially constant. These two problems are seldom considered in a single model. This study tries to deal with the endogeneity and heterogeneity problem together by combining the spatial fixed-effect model and geographically weighted regression (GWR). A series of literature indicates that the hedonic price of certain environmental assets varies spatially by applying GWR. Since the endogeneity problem is usually not considered in typical GWR models, it is arguable that the omitted spatial-related variables might bias the result of GWR models. By combing the spatial fixed-effect model and GWR, this study concludes that the effect of flood potential map is highly sensitive by location, even after controlling for the spatial autocorrelation at the same time. The main policy application of this result is that it is improper to determine the potential benefit of flood prevention policy by simply multiplying the hedonic price of flood risk by the number of houses. The effect of flood prevention might vary dramatically by location.Keywords: flood potential, hedonic price analysis, endogeneity, heterogeneity, geographically-weighted regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 2853400 Discrete State Prediction Algorithm Design with Self Performance Enhancement Capacity
Authors: Smail Tigani, Mohamed Ouzzif
Abstract:
This work presents a discrete quantitative state prediction algorithm with intelligent behavior making it able to self-improve some performance aspects. The specificity of this algorithm is the capacity of self-rectification of the prediction strategy before the final decision. The auto-rectification mechanism is based on two parallel mathematical models. In one hand, the algorithm predicts the next state based on event transition matrix updated after each observation. In the other hand, the algorithm extracts its residues trend with a linear regression representing historical residues data-points in order to rectify the first decision if needs. For a normal distribution, the interactivity between the two models allows the algorithm to self-optimize its performance and then make better prediction. Designed key performance indicator, computed during a Monte Carlo simulation, shows the advantages of the proposed approach compared with traditional one.Keywords: discrete state, Markov Chains, linear regression, auto-adaptive systems, decision making, Monte Carlo Simulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 4903399 Life in Bequia in the Era of Climate Change: Societal Perception of Adaptation and Vulnerability
Authors: Sherry Ann Ganase, Sandra Sookram
Abstract:
This study examines adaptation measures and factors that influence adaptation decisions in Bequia by using multiple linear regression and a structural equation model. Using survey data, the results suggest that households are knowledgeable and concerned about climate change but lack knowledge about the measures needed to adapt. The findings from the SEM suggest that a positive relationship exist between vulnerability and adaptation, vulnerability and perception, along with a negative relationship between perception and adaptation. This suggests that being aware of the terms associated with climate change and knowledge about climate change is insufficient for implementing adaptation measures; instead the risk and importance placed on climate change, vulnerability experienced with household flooding, drainage and expected threat of future sea level are the main factors that influence the adaptation decision. The results obtained in this study are beneficial to all as adaptation requires a collective effort by stakeholders.Keywords: adaptation, Bequia, multiple linear regression, structural equation model
Procedia PDF Downloads 4543398 Early Impact Prediction and Key Factors Study of Artificial Intelligence Patents: A Method Based on LightGBM and Interpretable Machine Learning
Authors: Xingyu Gao, Qiang Wu
Abstract:
Patents play a crucial role in protecting innovation and intellectual property. Early prediction of the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) patents helps researchers and companies allocate resources and make better decisions. Understanding the key factors that influence patent impact can assist researchers in gaining a better understanding of the evolution of AI technology and innovation trends. Therefore, identifying highly impactful patents early and providing support for them holds immeasurable value in accelerating technological progress, reducing research and development costs, and mitigating market positioning risks. Despite the extensive research on AI patents, accurately predicting their early impact remains a challenge. Traditional methods often consider only single factors or simple combinations, failing to comprehensively and accurately reflect the actual impact of patents. This paper utilized the artificial intelligence patent database from the United States Patent and Trademark Office and the Len.org patent retrieval platform to obtain specific information on 35,708 AI patents. Using six machine learning models, namely Multiple Linear Regression, Random Forest Regression, XGBoost Regression, LightGBM Regression, Support Vector Machine Regression, and K-Nearest Neighbors Regression, and using early indicators of patents as features, the paper comprehensively predicted the impact of patents from three aspects: technical, social, and economic. These aspects include the technical leadership of patents, the number of citations they receive, and their shared value. The SHAP (Shapley Additive exPlanations) metric was used to explain the predictions of the best model, quantifying the contribution of each feature to the model's predictions. The experimental results on the AI patent dataset indicate that, for all three target variables, LightGBM regression shows the best predictive performance. Specifically, patent novelty has the greatest impact on predicting the technical impact of patents and has a positive effect. Additionally, the number of owners, the number of backward citations, and the number of independent claims are all crucial and have a positive influence on predicting technical impact. In predicting the social impact of patents, the number of applicants is considered the most critical input variable, but it has a negative impact on social impact. At the same time, the number of independent claims, the number of owners, and the number of backward citations are also important predictive factors, and they have a positive effect on social impact. For predicting the economic impact of patents, the number of independent claims is considered the most important factor and has a positive impact on economic impact. The number of owners, the number of sibling countries or regions, and the size of the extended patent family also have a positive influence on economic impact. The study primarily relies on data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office for artificial intelligence patents. Future research could consider more comprehensive data sources, including artificial intelligence patent data, from a global perspective. While the study takes into account various factors, there may still be other important features not considered. In the future, factors such as patent implementation and market applications may be considered as they could have an impact on the influence of patents.Keywords: patent influence, interpretable machine learning, predictive models, SHAP
Procedia PDF Downloads 383397 An Assessment of Self-Perceived Health after the Death of a Spouse among the Elderly
Authors: Shu-Hsi Ho
Abstract:
The problems of aging and number of widowed peers gradually rise in Taiwan. It is worth to concern the related issues for elderly after the death of a spouse. Hence, this study is to examine the impact of spousal death on the surviving spouse’s self-perceived health and mental health for the elderly in Taiwan. A cross section data design and ordered logistic regression models are applied to investigate whether marriage is associated significantly to self-perceived health and mental health for the widowed older Taiwanese. The results indicate that widowed marriage shows significant negative effects on self-perceived health and mental health regardless of widows or widowers. Among them, widows might be more likely to show worse mental health than widowers. The belief confirms that marriage provides effective sources to promote self-perceived health and mental health, particularly for females. In addition, since the social welfare system is not perfect in Taiwan, the findings also suggest that family and social support reveal strongly association with the self-perceived health and mental health for the widows and widowers elderly.Keywords: logistic regression models, self-perceived health, widow, widower
Procedia PDF Downloads 4553396 Examining the Cognitive Abilities and Financial Literacy Among Street Entrepreneurs: Evidence From North-East, India
Authors: Aayushi Lyngwa, Bimal Kishore Sahoo
Abstract:
The study discusses the relationship between cognitive ability and the level of education attained by the tribal street entrepreneurs on their financial literacy. It is driven by the objective of examining the effect of cognitive ability on financial ability on the one hand and determining the effect of the same on financial literacy on the other. A field experiment was conducted on 203 tribal street vendors in the north-eastern Indian state of Mizoram. This experiment's calculations are conditioned by providing each question scores like math score (cognitive ability), financial score and debt score (financial ability). After that, categories for each of the variables, like math category (math score), financial category (financial score) and debt category (debt score), are generated to run the regression model. Since the dependent variable is ordinal, an ordered logit regression model was applied. The study shows that street vendors' cognitive and financial abilities are highly correlated. It, therefore, confirms that cognitive ability positively affects the financial literacy of street vendors through the increase in attainment of educational levels. It is also found that concerning the type of street vendors, regular street vendors are more likely to have better cognitive abilities than temporary street vendors. Additionally, street vendors with more cognitive and financial abilities gained better monthly profits and performed habits of bookkeeping. The study attempts to draw a particular focus on a set-up which is economically and socially marginalized in the Indian economy. Its finding contributes to understanding financial literacy in an understudied area and provides policy implications through inclusive financial systems solutions in an economy limited to tribal street vendors.Keywords: financial literacy, education, street entrepreneurs, tribals, cognitive ability, financial ability, ordered logit regression.
Procedia PDF Downloads 993395 Experimental Design and Optimization of Diesel Oil Desulfurization Process by Adsorption Processes
Authors: M. Firoz Kalam, Wilfried Schuetz, Jan Hendrik Bredehoeft
Abstract:
Thiophene sulfur compounds' removal from diesel oil by batch adsorption process using commercial powdered activated carbon was designed and optimized in two-level factorial design method. This design analysis was used to find out the effects of operating parameters directing the adsorption process, such as amount of adsorbent, temperature and stirring time. The desulfurization efficiency was considered the response or output variable. Results showed that the stirring time had the largest effects on sulfur removal efficiency as compared with other operating parameters and their interactions under the experimental ranges studied. A regression model was generated to observe the closeness between predicted and experimental values. The three-dimensional plots and contour plots of main factors were generated according to the regression results to observe the optimal points.Keywords: activated carbon, adsorptive desulfurization, factorial design, process optimization
Procedia PDF Downloads 1593394 Microstructure of Virgin and Aged Asphalts by Small-Angle X-Ray Scattering
Authors: Dong Tang, Yongli Zhao
Abstract:
The study of the microstructure of asphalt is of great importance for the analysis of its macroscopic properties. However, the peculiarities of the chemical composition of the asphalt itself and the limitations of existing direct imaging techniques have caused researchers to face many obstacles in studying the microstructure of asphalt. The advantage of small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) is that it allows quantitative determination of the internal structure of opaque materials and is suitable for analyzing the microstructure of materials. Therefore, the SAXS technique was used to study the evolution of microstructures on the nanoscale during asphalt aging. And the reasons for the change in scattering contrast during asphalt aging were also explained with the help of Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). SAXS experimental results show that the SAXS curves of asphalt are similar to the scattering curves of scattering objects with two-level structures. The Porod curve for asphalt shows that there is no obvious interface between the micelles and the surrounding mediums, and there is only a fluctuation of the hot electron density between the two. The Beaucage model fit SAXS patterns shows that the scattering coefficient P of the asphaltene clusters as well as the size of the micelles, gradually increase with the aging of the asphalt. Furthermore, aggregation exists between the micelles of asphalt and becomes more pronounced with increasing aging. During asphalt aging, the electron density difference between the micelles and the surrounding mediums gradually increases, leading to an increase in the scattering contrast of the asphalt. Under long-term aging conditions due to the gradual transition from maltenes to asphaltenes, the electron density difference between the micelles and the surrounding mediums decreases, resulting in a decrease in the scattering contrast of asphalt SAXS. Finally, this paper correlates the macroscopic properties of asphalt with microstructural parameters, and the results show that the high-temperature rutting resistance of asphalt is enhanced and the low-temperature cracking resistance decreases due to the aggregation of micelles and the generation of new micelles. These results are useful for understanding the relationship between changes in microstructure and changes in properties during asphalt aging and provide theoretical guidance for the regeneration of aged asphalt.Keywords: asphalt, Beaucage model, microstructure, SAXS
Procedia PDF Downloads 733393 Effect of Oil Viscosity and Brine Salinity/Viscosity on Water/Oil Relative Permeability and Residual Saturations
Authors: Sami Aboujafar
Abstract:
Oil recovery in petroleum reservoirs is greatly affected by fluid-rock and fluid-fluid interactions. These interactions directly control rock wettability, capillary pressure and relative permeability curves. Laboratory core-floods and centrifuge experiments were conducted on sandstone and carbonate cores to study the effect of low and high brine salinity and viscosity and oil viscosity on residual saturations and relative permeability. Drainage and imbibition relative permeability in two phase system were measured, refined lab oils with different viscosities, heavy and light, and several brine salinities were used. Sensitivity analysis with different values for the salinity and viscosity of the fluids,, oil and water, were done to investigate the effect of these properties on water/oil relative permeability, residual oil saturation and oil recovery. Experiments were conducted on core material from viscous/heavy and light oil fields. History matching core flood simulator was used to study how the relative permeability curves and end point saturations were affected by different fluid properties using several correlations. Results were compared with field data and literature data. The results indicate that there is a correlation between the oil viscosity and/or brine salinity and residual oil saturation and water relative permeability end point. Increasing oil viscosity reduces the Krw@Sor and increases Sor. The remaining oil saturation from laboratory measurements might be too high due to experimental procedures, capillary end effect and early termination of the experiment, especially when using heavy/viscous oil. Similarly the Krw@Sor may be too low. The effect of wettability on the observed results is also discussed. A consistent relationship has been drawn between the fluid parameters, water/oil relative permeability and residual saturations, and a descriptor may be derived to define different flow behaviors. The results of this work will have application to producing fields and the methodologies developed could have wider application to sandstone and carbonate reservoirs worldwide.Keywords: history matching core flood simulator, oil recovery, relative permeability, residual saturations
Procedia PDF Downloads 3283392 Development of a Turbulent Boundary Layer Wall-pressure Fluctuations Power Spectrum Model Using a Stepwise Regression Algorithm
Authors: Zachary Huffman, Joana Rocha
Abstract:
Wall-pressure fluctuations induced by the turbulent boundary layer (TBL) developed over aircraft are a significant source of aircraft cabin noise. Since the power spectral density (PSD) of these pressure fluctuations is directly correlated with the amount of sound radiated into the cabin, the development of accurate empirical models that predict the PSD has been an important ongoing research topic. The sound emitted can be represented from the pressure fluctuations term in the Reynoldsaveraged Navier-Stokes equations (RANS). Therefore, early TBL empirical models (including those from Lowson, Robertson, Chase, and Howe) were primarily derived by simplifying and solving the RANS for pressure fluctuation and adding appropriate scales. Most subsequent models (including Goody, Efimtsov, Laganelli, Smol’yakov, and Rackl and Weston models) were derived by making modifications to these early models or by physical principles. Overall, these models have had varying levels of accuracy, but, in general, they are most accurate under the specific Reynolds and Mach numbers they were developed for, while being less accurate under other flow conditions. Despite this, recent research into the possibility of using alternative methods for deriving the models has been rather limited. More recent studies have demonstrated that an artificial neural network model was more accurate than traditional models and could be applied more generally, but the accuracy of other machine learning techniques has not been explored. In the current study, an original model is derived using a stepwise regression algorithm in the statistical programming language R, and TBL wall-pressure fluctuations PSD data gathered at the Carleton University wind tunnel. The theoretical advantage of a stepwise regression approach is that it will automatically filter out redundant or uncorrelated input variables (through the process of feature selection), and it is computationally faster than machine learning. The main disadvantage is the potential risk of overfitting. The accuracy of the developed model is assessed by comparing it to independently sourced datasets.Keywords: aircraft noise, machine learning, power spectral density models, regression models, turbulent boundary layer wall-pressure fluctuations
Procedia PDF Downloads 1323391 Assessment of the Impact of Traffic Safety Policy in Barcelona, 2010-2019
Authors: Lluís Bermúdez, Isabel Morillo
Abstract:
Road safety involves carrying out a determined and explicit policy to reduce accidents. In the city of Barcelona, through the Local Road Safety Plan 2013-2018, in line with the framework that has been established at the European and state level, a series of preventive, corrective and technical measures are specified, with the priority objective of reducing the number of serious injuries and fatalities. In this work, based on the data from the accidents managed by the local police during the period 2010-2019, an analysis is carried out to verify whether the measures established in the Plan to reduce the accident rate have had an effect or not and to what extent. The analysis focuses on the type of accident and the type of vehicles involved. Different count regression models have been fitted, from which it can be deduced that the number of serious and fatal victims of the accidents that have occurred in the city of Barcelona has been reduced as the measures approved by the authorities.Keywords: accident reduction, count regression models, road safety, urban traffic
Procedia PDF Downloads 1243390 Effects of Video Games and Online Chat on Mathematics Performance in High School: An Approach of Multivariate Data Analysis
Authors: Lina Wu, Wenyi Lu, Ye Li
Abstract:
Regarding heavy video game players for boys and super online chat lovers for girls as a symbolic phrase in the current adolescent culture, this project of data analysis verifies the displacement effect on deteriorating mathematics performance. To evaluate correlation or regression coefficients between a factor of playing video games or chatting online and mathematics performance compared with other factors, we use multivariate analysis technique and take gender difference into account. We find the most important reason for the negative sign of the displacement effect on mathematics performance due to students’ poor academic background. Statistical analysis methods in this project could be applied to study internet users’ academic performance from the high school education to the college education.Keywords: correlation coefficients, displacement effect, multivariate analysis technique, regression coefficients
Procedia PDF Downloads 3593389 Understanding the Impact of Climate-Induced Rural-Urban Migration on the Technical Efficiency of Maize Production in Malawi
Authors: Innocent Pangapanga-Phiri, Eric Dada Mungatana
Abstract:
This study estimates the effect of climate-induced rural-urban migrants (RUM) on maize productivity. It uses panel data gathered by the National Statistics Office and the World Bank to understand the effect of RUM on the technical efficiency of maize production in rural Malawi. The study runs the two-stage Tobit regression to isolate the real effect of rural-urban migration on the technical efficiency of maize production. The results show that RUM significantly reduces the technical efficiency of maize production. However, the interaction of RUM and climate-smart agriculture has a positive and significant influence on the technical efficiency of maize production, suggesting the need for re-investing migrants’ remittances in agricultural activities.Keywords: climate-smart agriculture, farm productivity, rural-urban migration, panel stochastic frontier models, two-stage Tobit regression
Procedia PDF Downloads 1153388 Discovery of Exoplanets in Kepler Data Using a Graphics Processing Unit Fast Folding Method and a Deep Learning Model
Authors: Kevin Wang, Jian Ge, Yinan Zhao, Kevin Willis
Abstract:
Kepler has discovered over 4000 exoplanets and candidates. However, current transit planet detection techniques based on the wavelet analysis and the Box Least Squares (BLS) algorithm have limited sensitivity in detecting minor planets with a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and long periods with only 3-4 repeated signals over the mission lifetime of 4 years. This paper presents a novel precise-period transit signal detection methodology based on a new Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) Fast Folding algorithm in conjunction with a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) to detect low SNR and/or long-period transit planet signals. A comparison with BLS is conducted on both simulated light curves and real data, demonstrating that the new method has higher speed, sensitivity, and reliability. For instance, the new system can detect transits with SNR as low as three while the performance of BLS drops off quickly around SNR of 7. Meanwhile, the GPU Fast Folding method folds light curves 25 times faster than BLS, a significant gain that allows exoplanet detection to occur at unprecedented period precision. This new method has been tested with all known transit signals with 100% confirmation. In addition, this new method has been successfully applied to the Kepler of Interest (KOI) data and identified a few new Earth-sized Ultra-short period (USP) exoplanet candidates and habitable planet candidates. The results highlight the promise for GPU Fast Folding as a replacement to the traditional BLS algorithm for finding small and/or long-period habitable and Earth-sized planet candidates in-transit data taken with Kepler and other space transit missions such as TESS(Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) and PLATO(PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars).Keywords: algorithms, astronomy data analysis, deep learning, exoplanet detection methods, small planets, habitable planets, transit photometry
Procedia PDF Downloads 2143387 A Regression Model for Predicting Sugar Crystal Size in a Fed-Batch Vacuum Evaporative Crystallizer
Authors: Sunday B. Alabi, Edikan P. Felix, Aniediong M. Umo
Abstract:
Crystal size distribution is of great importance in the sugar factories. It determines the market value of granulated sugar and also influences the cost of production of sugar crystals. Typically, sugar is produced using fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer. The crystallization quality is examined by crystal size distribution at the end of the process which is quantified by two parameters: the average crystal size of the distribution in the mean aperture (MA) and the width of the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV). Lack of real-time measurement of the sugar crystal size hinders its feedback control and eventual optimisation of the crystallization process. An attractive alternative is to use a soft sensor (model-based method) for online estimation of the sugar crystal size. Unfortunately, the available models for sugar crystallization process are not suitable as they do not contain variables that can be measured easily online. The main contribution of this paper is the development of a regression model for estimating the sugar crystal size as a function of input variables which are easy to measure online. This has the potential to provide real-time estimates of crystal size for its effective feedback control. Using 7 input variables namely: initial crystal size (Lo), temperature (T), vacuum pressure (P), feed flowrate (Ff), steam flowrate (Fs), initial super-saturation (S0) and crystallization time (t), preliminary studies were carried out using Minitab 14 statistical software. Based on the existing sugar crystallizer models, and the typical ranges of these 7 input variables, 128 datasets were obtained from a 2-level factorial experimental design. These datasets were used to obtain a simple but online-implementable 6-input crystal size model. It seems the initial crystal size (Lₒ) does not play a significant role. The goodness of the resulting regression model was evaluated. The coefficient of determination, R² was obtained as 0.994, and the maximum absolute relative error (MARE) was obtained as 4.6%. The high R² (~1.0) and the reasonably low MARE values are an indication that the model is able to predict sugar crystal size accurately as a function of the 6 easy-to-measure online variables. Thus, the model can be used as a soft sensor to provide real-time estimates of sugar crystal size during sugar crystallization process in a fed-batch vacuum evaporative crystallizer.Keywords: crystal size, regression model, soft sensor, sugar, vacuum evaporative crystallizer
Procedia PDF Downloads 2023386 Estimation of Fragility Curves Using Proposed Ground Motion Selection and Scaling Procedure
Authors: Esra Zengin, Sinan Akkar
Abstract:
Reliable and accurate prediction of nonlinear structural response requires specification of appropriate earthquake ground motions to be used in nonlinear time history analysis. The current research has mainly focused on selection and manipulation of real earthquake records that can be seen as the most critical step in the performance based seismic design and assessment of the structures. Utilizing amplitude scaled ground motions that matches with the target spectra is commonly used technique for the estimation of nonlinear structural response. Representative ground motion ensembles are selected to match target spectrum such as scenario-based spectrum derived from ground motion prediction equations, Uniform Hazard Spectrum (UHS), Conditional Mean Spectrum (CMS) or Conditional Spectrum (CS). Different sets of criteria exist among those developed methodologies to select and scale ground motions with the objective of obtaining robust estimation of the structural performance. This study presents ground motion selection and scaling procedure that considers the spectral variability at target demand with the level of ground motion dispersion. The proposed methodology provides a set of ground motions whose response spectra match target median and corresponding variance within a specified period interval. The efficient and simple algorithm is used to assemble the ground motion sets. The scaling stage is based on the minimization of the error between scaled median and the target spectra where the dispersion of the earthquake shaking is preserved along the period interval. The impact of the spectral variability on nonlinear response distribution is investigated at the level of inelastic single degree of freedom systems. In order to see the effect of different selection and scaling methodologies on fragility curve estimations, results are compared with those obtained by CMS-based scaling methodology. The variability in fragility curves due to the consideration of dispersion in ground motion selection process is also examined.Keywords: ground motion selection, scaling, uncertainty, fragility curve
Procedia PDF Downloads 5813385 Transport Related Air Pollution Modeling Using Artificial Neural Network
Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar
Abstract:
Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 5153384 Impact of Improved Beehive on Income of Rural Households: Evidence from Bugina District of Northern Ethiopia
Authors: Wondmnew Derebe
Abstract:
Increased adoption of modern beehives improves the livelihood of smallholder farmers whose income largely depends on mixed crop-livestock farming. Improved beehives have been disseminated to farmers in many parts of Ethiopia. However, its impact on income is less investigated. Thus, this study estimates how adopting improved beehives impacts rural households' income. Survey data were collected from 350 randomly selected households' and analyzed using an endogenous switching regression model. The result revealed that the adoption of improved beehives is associated with a higher annual income. On average, improved beehive adopters earned about 6,077 (ETB) more money than their counterparts. However, the impact of adoption would have been larger for actual non-adopters, as reflected in the negative transitional heterogeneity effect of 1792 (ETB). The result also indicated that the decision to adopt or not to adopt improved beehives was subjected to individual self-selection. Improved beehive adoption can increase farmers' income and can be used as an alternative poverty reduction strategy.Keywords: impact, adoption, endogenous switching regression, income, improved
Procedia PDF Downloads 64