Search results for: loss model

Authors: Coskun Serefoglu

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The study aims to analyse how a traditional sector such as agri-food could be mobilized through regional innovation strategies. A principal component analysis as well as qualitative information, such as in-depth interviews, focus group and surveys, were employed to find the priority sectors. An agri-food model was developed which includes both a linear model and interactive model. The model consists of two main components, one of which is technological integration and the other one is agricultural extension which is based on Land-grant university approach of U.S. which is not a common practice in Turkey.

Keywords: regional innovation strategy, interactive model, agri-food sector, local development, planning, regional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Sasiporn Rattanasupha, Settapat Chinviriyasit

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The treatment function adopts a continuous and differentiable function which can describe the effect of delayed treatment when the number of infected individuals increases and the medical condition is limited. In this paper, the SEIR epidemic model with treatment function is studied to investigate the dynamics of the model due to the effect of treatment. It is assumed that the treatment rate is proportional to the number of infective patients. The stability of the model is analyzed. The model is simulated to illustrate the analytical results and to investigate the effects of treatment on the spread of infection.

Keywords: basic reproduction number, local stability, SEIR epidemic model, treatment function

Procedia PDF Downloads 524

Authors: E. Cesarini, M. Lorenzini, R. Cardarelli, S. Chao, E. Coccia, V. Fafone, Y. Minenkow, I. Nardecchia, I. M. Pinto, A. Rocchi, V. Sequino, C. Taranto

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Structural relaxation processes in optical coatings represent a fundamental limit to the sensitivity of gravitational waves detectors, MEMS, optical metrology and entangled state experiments. To face this problem, many research lines are now active, in particular the characterization of new materials and novel solutions to be employed as coatings in future gravitational wave detectors. Nano-layered coating deposition is among the most promising techniques. We report on the measurement of acoustic loss of nm-layered composites (Ti₂O/SiO₂), performed with the GeNS nodal suspension, compared with sputtered λ/4 thin films nowadays employed.

Keywords: mechanical measurement, nanomaterials, optical coating, thermal noise

Procedia PDF Downloads 425

Authors: Rakesh Kumar Mishra, Tarun Kumar Dan

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Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control method is proposed based on Internal Model Control (IMC) strategy. In this paper, we have designed the Lead-Lag based Internal Model Control for binary distillation column for SISO process (considering only bottom product). The transfer function has been taken from Wood and Berry model. We have find the composition control and disturbance rejection using Lead-Lag based IMC and comparing with the response of simple Internal Model Controller.

Keywords: SISO, lead-lag, internal model control, wood and berry, distillation column

Procedia PDF Downloads 650

Authors: Morten Brøgger, Kim Wittchen

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Focus on reducing energy consumption in existing buildings at large scale, e.g. in cities or countries, has been increasing in recent years. In order to reduce energy consumption in existing buildings, political incentive schemes are put in place and large scale investments are made by utility companies. Prioritising these investments requires a comprehensive overview of the energy consumption in the existing building stock, as well as potential energy-savings. However, a building stock comprises thousands of buildings with different characteristics making it difficult to model energy consumption accurately. Moreover, the complexity of the building stock makes it difficult to convey model results to policymakers and other stakeholders. In order to manage the complexity of the building stock, building archetypes are often employed in building stock energy models (BSEMs). Building archetypes are formed by segmenting the building stock according to specific characteristics. Segmenting the building stock according to building type and building age is common, among other things because this information is often easily available. This segmentation makes it easy to convey results to non-experts. However, using a single archetypical building to represent all buildings in a segment of the building stock is associated with loss of detail. Thermal characteristics are aggregated while other characteristics, which could affect the energy efficiency of a building, are disregarded. Thus, using a simplified representation of the building stock could come at the expense of the accuracy of the model. The present study evaluates the accuracy of a conventional archetype-based BSEM that segments the building stock according to building type- and age. The accuracy is evaluated in terms of the archetypes’ ability to accurately emulate the average energy demands of the corresponding buildings they were meant to represent. This is done for the buildings’ energy demands as a whole as well as for relevant sub-demands. Both are evaluated in relation to the type- and the age of the building. This should provide researchers, who use archetypes in BSEMs, with an indication of the expected accuracy of the conventional archetype model, as well as the accuracy lost in specific parts of the calculation, due to use of the archetype method.

Keywords: building stock energy modelling, energy-savings, archetype

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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Climate change is continuously affecting the ecosystem, species distribution as well as global biodiversity. The assessment of the species potential distribution and the spatial changes under various climate change scenarios is a significant step towards the conservation and mitigation of habitat shifts, and species' loss and vulnerability. In this context, the present study aimed to predict the influence of current and future climate on an ecologically vulnerable medicinal species, Garcinia gummi-gutta, of the southern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modeling. The future projections were made for the period of 2050 and 2070 with RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenario of 4.5 and 8.5 using 84 species occurrence data, and climatic variables from three different models of Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) fifth assessment. Climatic variables contributions were assessed using jackknife test and AOC value 0.888 indicates the model perform with high accuracy. The major influencing variables will be annual precipitation, precipitation of coldest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of driest quarter. The model result shows that the current high potential distribution of the species is around 1.90% of the study area, 7.78% is good potential; about 90.32% is moderate to very low potential for species suitability. Finally, the results of all model represented that there will be a drastic decline in the suitable habitat distribution by 2050 and 2070 for all the RCP scenarios. The study signifies that MaxEnt model might be an efficient tool for ecosystem management, biodiversity protection, and species re-habitation planning under climate change.

Keywords: Garcinia gummi gutta, maximum entropy modeling, medicinal plants, climate change, western ghats, MaxEnt

Procedia PDF Downloads 396

Authors: Khaled Ayfi, Morgan Dal, Frederic Coste, Nicolas Gallienne, Martina Ridlova, Philippe Lorong

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In the gas industry, contamination of equipment by metal particles is one of the feared phenomena. Indeed, particles inside equipment can be driven by the gas flow and accumulate in places where the velocity is low. As they constitute a potential ignition hazard, particular attention is paid to the presence of particles in the oxygen industry. Indeed, the heat release from ignited particles may damage the equipment and even result in a loss of integrity. The objective of this work is to support the development of new design criteria. Studying the thermomechanical behavior of this equipment, thanks to numerical simulations, allows us to test the influence of various operating parameters (oxygen pressure, wall thickness, initial operating temperature, nature of the metal, etc.). Therefore, in this study, we propose a numerical model that describes the thermomechanical behavior of various pressurized installations heated locally by the combustion of small particles. This model takes into account the geometric and material nonlinearity and has been validated by the comparison of simulation results with experimental measurements obtained by a new device developed in this work.

Keywords: ignition, oxygen, numerical simulation, thermomechanical behaviour

Procedia PDF Downloads 160

Authors: M. M. Othman, Walid El-Khattam, Y. G. Hegazy, A. Y. Abdelaziz

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This paper presents a method for finding the optimal location and capacity of dispatchable DGs connected to the distribution feeders for optimal planning for a specified power loss without violating the system practical constraints. The distributed generation units in the proposed algorithm is modeled as voltage controlled node with the flexibility to be converted to constant power node in case of reactive power limit violation. The proposed algorithm is implemented in MATLAB and tested on the IEEE 37-nodes feeder. The results that are validated by comparing it with results obtained from other competing methods show the effectiveness, accuracy and speed of the proposed method.

Keywords: distributed generators, firefly technique, optimization, power loss

Procedia PDF Downloads 540

Authors: Hongyu Chen, Li Jiang

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Ubiquitous anomalies endanger the security of our system con- stantly. They may bring irreversible damages to the system and cause leakage of privacy. Thus, it is of vital importance to promptly detect these anomalies. Traditional supervised methods such as Decision Trees and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are used to classify normality and abnormality. However, in some case, the abnormal status are largely rarer than normal status, which leads to decision bias of these methods. Generative adversarial network (GAN) has been proposed to handle the case. With its strong generative ability, it only needs to learn the distribution of normal status, and identify the abnormal status through the gap between it and the learned distribution. Nevertheless, existing GAN-based models are not suitable to process data with discrete values, leading to immense degradation of detection performance. To cope with the discrete features, in this paper, we propose an efficient GAN-based model with specifically-designed loss function. Experiment results show that our model outperforms state-of-the-art models on discrete dataset and remarkably reduce the overhead.

Keywords: GAN, discrete feature, Wasserstein distance, multiple intermediate layers

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Authors: H. Namazi, H. T. N. Kuan

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It is known that in humans, the adaptation to a given odor occurs within a quite short span of time (typically one minute) after the odor is presented to the brain. Different models of human olfaction have been developed by scientists but none of these models consider the diffusion phenomenon in olfaction. A novel microscopic model of the human olfaction is presented in this paper. We develop this model by incorporating the transient diffusivity. In fact, the mathematical model is written based on diffusion of the odorant within the mucus layer. By the use of the model developed in this paper, it becomes possible to provide quantification of the objective strength of odor.

Keywords: diffusion, microscopic model, mucus layer, olfaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 509

Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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There exists some time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in calculating efficiency of decision making units (DMU). Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. This problem can be resolved a super-efficiency model. However, a super efficiency model sometimes causes infeasibility problem. This paper suggests an output oriented super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect. A case example using a long term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model

Keywords: DEA, Super-efficiency, Time Lag, research activities

Procedia PDF Downloads 661

Authors: Majid Moshirfar, Kyle Margulies, Yasmyne C. Ronquillo, Phillip Hoopes

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A total of 66 articles were reviewed to compare glaucoma and its associated surgeries' effect on central corneal endothelium cell density (CECD). The paper reports the average reported central CECD loss at 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 60-month post-operation for each glaucoma surgery. ALT, MLT, SLT, CS AGV, VC BGI, Hydrus + phaco, XEN gel + phaco, PRESERFLO, Dual iStent, or Trabectome had no significant impact on postoperative CECD compared to either preoperative CECD or control group CECD. The highest CECD loss was found to be EXPRESS-phaco, AC AGV, CS BGI, CS BGI, AC BGI, and AC BGI at the 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 60-month follow-ups, respectively. AC AGV, Trab + MMC, Trab, AC BGI, Trab + MMC, Cypass, and Cypass showed the smallest reduction of CECD at the 3-, 6-, 12-, 24-, 36-, 48-, and 60-month follow-ups.

Keywords: glaucoma, corneal endothelium, cell density, surgery outcome

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: N. Yachou, R. Aboulaich

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Home is a basic necessity for human life, that why home financing takes a large chunk of people’s income. Therefore, Islamic and Conventional Banks try to offer new product in order to respond to customer needs related to home financing. Basing on this fact, we propose a Modified Diminishing Partnership model based on profit and loss sharing to reduce the duration of getting the full shares in the house property. Our proposition will be represented by the rental that customer has to give every month to the bank with redemption to increase his shares on the property of the house.

Keywords: home financing, interest rate, rental rate, modified diminishing partnership

Procedia PDF Downloads 352

Authors: Bhrigu Rishi Mishra, Sreerag Sundaram, Nithin Jo Varghese, Karthik Sasihithlu

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We have designed a TiO2/PDMS coating with 94% solar reflection, 96% IR emission, and 81.8 W/m2 cooling power for passive daytime radiative cooling using Kubelka Munk theory and CST microwave studio. To reduce solar absorption loss in 0.3-0.39 m wavelength region, a TiO2 thin film on top of the coating is used. Simulation using Ansys Lumerical shows that for a 20 m thick TiO2/PDMS coating, a TiO2 thin film of 84 nm increases the coating's reflectivity by 11% in the solar region.

Keywords: passive daytime radiative cooling, disordered metamaterial, Kudelka Munk theory, solar reflectivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Laidi Babouri

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The remarkable properties of steel, such as hardness and impact resistance, motivate their use in the automotive manufacturing industry. However, due to the very vulnerable environmental conditions of use, the steel that makes up the car body can corrode. This situation is motivating more and more automobile manufacturers to develop research to develop processes minimizing the rate of degradation of the physicomechanical properties of these materials. The present work falls within this perspective; it presents the results of a research study focused on the use of synthetic wax for the protection of steel, type XES (DC04), against corrosion in aggressive environments. The media used in this study are an acid medium with a pH=5.6, a 3% chloride medium, and a dry medium. Evaluation of the protective power of synthetic wax in different environments was carried out using mass loss techniques (immersion), completed by electrochemical techniques (stationary and transient). The results of the immersion of the steel samples, with a surface area of (1.44 cm²), in the various media, for a period of 30 days, using the immersion technique, showed high protective efficiency of synthetic wax in acidic and saline environments, with a lesser degree in a dry environment. Moreover, the study of the protective power, using electrochemical techniques, confirmed the results obtained in static mode (loss of mass), the protective efficiency of synthetic wax, against the corrosion of steel, in different environments, which reaches a maximum rate of 99.87% in a saline environment.

Keywords: corrosion, steel, industrial wax, environment, mass loss, electrochemical techniques

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Zainab Magaji Musa, Nordin M. A. Rahman, Julaily Aida Jusoh

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The web services applications for digital reference service (WSDRS) of LIS model is an informal model that claims to reduce the problems of digital reference services in libraries. It uses web services technology to provide efficient way of satisfying users’ needs in the reference section of libraries. The formal WSDRS model consists of the Z specifications of all the informal specifications of the model. This paper discusses the formal validation of the Z specifications of WSDRS model. The authors formally verify and thus validate the properties of the model using Z/EVES theorem prover.

Keywords: validation, verification, formal, theorem prover

Procedia PDF Downloads 520

Authors: Petcharat  Kerdonfag, Surasak Taneepanichskul, Winai Wadwongtham

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Industrial noise is usually considered as the main impact of the environmental health and safety because its exposure can cause permanently serious hearing damage. Despite providing strictly hearing protection standards and campaigning extensively encouraging public health awareness among industrial workers in Thailand, hazard noise-induced hearing loss has dramatically been massive obstacles for workers’ health. The aims of the study were to explore and specify the hearing threshold levels among steel industrial workers responsible in which higher noise levels of work zone and to examine the relationships of hearing loss and workers’ age and the length of employment in Samut Prakan province, Thailand. Cross-sectional study design was done. Ninety-three steel industrial workers in the designated zone of higher noise (> 85dBA) with more than 1 year of employment from two factories by simple random sampling and available to participate in were assessed by the audiometric screening at regional Samut Prakan hospital. Data of doing screening were collected from October to December, 2016 by the occupational medicine physician and a qualified occupational nurse. All participants were examined by the same examiners for the validity. An Audiometric testing was performed at least 14 hours after the last noise exposure from the workplace. Workers’ age and the length of employment were gathered by the developed occupational record form. Results: The range of workers’ age was from 23 to 59 years, (Mean = 41.67, SD = 9.69) and the length of employment was from 1 to 39 years, (Mean = 13.99, SD = 9.88). Fifty three (60.0%) out of all participants have been exposing to the hazard of noise in the workplace for more than 10 years. Twenty-three (24.7%) of them have been exposing to the hazard of noise less than or equal to 5 years. Seventeen (18.3%) of them have been exposing to the hazard of noise for 5 to 10 years. Using the cut point of less than or equal to 25 dBA of hearing thresholds, the average means of hearing thresholds for participants at 4, 6, and 8 kHz were 31.34, 29.62, and 25.64 dB, respectively for the right ear and 40.15, 32.20, and 25.48 dB for the left ear, respectively. The more developing age of workers in the work zone with hazard of noise, the more the hearing thresholds would be increasing at frequencies of 4, 6, and 8 kHz (p =.012, p =.026, p =.024) for the right ear, respectively and for the left ear only at the frequency 4 kHz (p =.009). Conclusion: The participants’ age in the hazard of noise work zone was significantly associated with the hearing loss in different levels while the length of participants’ employment was not significantly associated with the hearing loss. Thus hearing threshold levels among industrial workers would be regularly assessed and needed to be protected at the beginning of working.

Keywords: hearing threshold levels, hazard of noise, hearing loss, audiometric testing

Procedia PDF Downloads 230

Authors: Matthew C. Best

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Linear Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO) dynamic models can be identified, with no a priori knowledge of model structure or order, using a new Generalised Identifying Filter (GIF). Based on an Extended Kalman Filter, the new filter identifies the model iteratively, in a continuous modal canonical form, using only input and output time histories. The filter’s self-propagating state error covariance matrix allows easy determination of convergence and conditioning, and by progressively increasing model order, the best fitting reduced-order model can be identified. The method is shown to be resistant to noise and can easily be extended to identification of smoothly nonlinear systems.

Keywords: system identification, Kalman filter, linear model, MIMO, model order reduction

Procedia PDF Downloads 599

Authors: Iyd Eqqab Maree, Habil Jurgen Bast

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Vibration control of machines and structures incorporating viscoelastic materials in suitable arrangement is an important aspect of investigation. The use of viscoelastic layers constrained between elastic layers is known to be effective for damping of flexural vibrations of structures over a wide range of frequencies. The energy dissipated in these arrangements is due to shear deformation in the viscoelastic layers, which occurs due to flexural vibration of the structures. Multilayered cantilever sandwich beam like structures can be used in aircrafts and other applications such as robot arms for effective vibration control. These members may experience parametric instability when subjected to time dependant forces. The theory of dynamic stability of elastic systems deals with the study of vibrations induced by pulsating loads that are parametric with respect to certain forms of deformation. The purpose of the present work is to investigate the dynamic stability of a three layered symmetric sandwich beam (Drone Aircraft wings ) subjected to an end periodic axial force . Equations of motion are derived using finite element method (MATLAB software). It is observed that with increase in core thickness parameter fundamental buckling load increases. The fundamental resonant frequency and second mode frequency parameter also increase with increase in core thickness parameter. Fundamental loss factor and second mode loss factor also increase with increase in core thickness parameter. Increase in core thickness parameter enhances the stability of the beam. With increase in core loss factor also the stability of the beam enhances. There is a very good agreement of the experimental results with the theoretical findings.

Keywords: steel cantilever beam, viscoelastic material core, loss factor, transition region, MATLAB R2011a

Procedia PDF Downloads 478

Authors: Tejush Badal, Sanaa Alwidian

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Class diagrams are useful tools within the Unified Modelling Language (UML) to model and visualize the relationships between, and properties of objects within a system. As a system evolves over time and space (e.g., products), a series of models with several commonalities and variabilities create what is known as a model family. In circumstances where there are several versions of a model, examining each model individually, becomes expensive in terms of computation resources. To avoid performing redundant operations, this paper proposes an approach for representing a family of class diagrams into Union Models to represent model families using a single generic model. The paper aims to analyze and reason about a family of class diagrams using union models as opposed to individual analysis of each member model in the family. The union algorithm provides a holistic view of the model family, where the latter cannot be otherwise obtained from an individual analysis approach, this in turn, enhances the analysis performed in terms of speeding up the time needed to analyze a family of models together as opposed to analyzing individual models, one model at a time.

Keywords: analysis, class diagram, model family, unified modeling language, union model

Procedia PDF Downloads 78

Authors: Anand Malik

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The Himalayas with high tectonic activities poses a great threat to human life and property. Climate change is another reason which triggering extreme events multiple fold effect on high mountain glacial environment, rock falls, landslides, debris flows, flash flood and snow avalanches. One such extreme event of cloud burst along with breach of moraine dammed Chorabri Lake occurred from June 14 to June 17, 2013, triggered flooding of Saraswati and Mandakini rivers in the Kedarnath Valley of Rudraprayag district of Uttrakhand state of India. As a result, huge volume of water with its high velocity created a catastrophe of the century, which resulted into loss of large number of human/animals, pilgrimage, tourism, agriculture and property. Thus a comprehensive assessment of debris flow hazards requires GIS-based modeling using numerical methods. The aim of present study is to focus on analysis and mapping of debris flow movements using geospatial data with flow-r (developed by team at IGAR, University of Lausanne). The model is based on combined probabilistic and energetic algorithms for the assessment of spreading of flow with maximum run out distances. Aster Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with 30m x 30m cell size (resolution) is used as main geospatial data for preparing the run out assessment, while Landsat data is used to analyze land use land cover change in the study area. The results of the study area show that model can be applied with great accuracy as the model is very useful in determining debris flow areas. The results are compared with existing available landslides/debris flow maps. ArcGIS software is used in preparing run out susceptibility maps which can be used in debris flow mitigation and future land use planning.

Keywords: debris flow, geospatial data, GIS based modeling, flow-R

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Authors: D. Thawinkarn, S. Wongbutlee

Abstract:

The Social Change Leadership model is strongly aligned with administration’s mission. This research aims to examine the elements of social change leadership, build and develop leadership for social change, and evaluate effectiveness of leadership development model for social change. The research operation has 3 phases: model studies by in-depth interviews and survey research; drafting and creating model which verified by the experts; and trial of model in schools. The results showed that administrators and teachers have the elements of leadership for social change in moderate level. These elements are ranged descending from consciousness of self, common purpose, congruence, collaboration, commitment, citizenship, and controversy with civility. Model of leadership for social change is included the principles, objectives, content, process. Workshop process: Results show that the model of leadership development for social change in administrators and teachers leads to higher score in leadership evaluation prior to administering the operation.

Keywords: leadership, social change model, organization, administrators

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Authors: Zhu Xinxin, Wang Hui, Yang Kai

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Heat flux is one of the most important test parameters in the ground thermal protection test. Slug calorimeter is selected as the main sensor measuring heat flux in arc wind tunnel test due to the convenience and low cost. However, because of excessive lateral heat transfer and the disadvantage of the calculation method, the heat flux measurement error of the slug calorimeter is large. In order to enhance measurement accuracy, the heat insulation structure and heat flux calculation method of slug calorimeter were improved. The heat transfer model of the slug calorimeter was built according to the energy conservation principle. Based on the heat transfer model, the insulating sleeve of the hollow structure was designed, which helped to greatly decrease lateral heat transfer. And the slug with insulating sleeve of hollow structure was encapsulated using a package shell. The improved insulation structure reduced heat loss and ensured that the heat transfer characteristics were almost the same when calibrated and tested. The heat flux calibration test was carried out in arc lamp system for heat flux sensor calibration, and the results show that test accuracy and precision of slug calorimeter are improved greatly. In the meantime, the simulation model of the slug calorimeter was built. The heat flux values in different temperature rise time periods were calculated by the simulation model. The results show that extracting the data of the temperature rise rate as soon as possible can result in a smaller heat flux calculation error. Then the different thermal contact resistance affecting calculation error was analyzed by the simulation model. The contact resistance between the slug and the insulating sleeve was identified as the main influencing factor. The direct comparison calibration correction method was proposed based on only heat flux calibration. The numerical calculation correction method was proposed based on the heat flux calibration and simulation model of slug calorimeter after the simulation model was solved by solving the contact resistance between the slug and the insulating sleeve. The simulation and test results show that two methods can greatly reduce the heat flux measurement error. Finally, the improved slug calorimeter was tested in the arc wind tunnel. And test results show that the repeatability accuracy of improved slug calorimeter is less than 3%. The deviation of measurement value from different slug calorimeters is less than 3% in the same fluid field. The deviation of measurement value between slug calorimeter and Gordon Gage is less than 4% in the same fluid field.

Keywords: correction method, heat flux calculation, heat insulation structure, heat transfer model, slug calorimeter

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Authors: A. Lakrim, D. Tahri

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This paper sets out a behavioral macro-model of a Merged PiN and Schottky (MPS) diode based on silicon carbide (SiC). This model holds good for both static and dynamic electrothermal simulations for industrial applications. Its parameters have been worked out from datasheets curves by drawing on the optimization method: Simulated Annealing (SA) for the SiC MPS diodes made available in the industry. The model also adopts the Analog Behavioral Model (ABM) of PSPICE in which it has been implemented. The thermal behavior of the devices was also taken into consideration by making use of Foster’ canonical network as figured out from electro-thermal measurement provided by the manufacturer of the device.

Keywords: SiC MPS diode, electro-thermal, SPICE model, behavioral macro-model

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Joseph Salim

Abstract:

This paper proposes the development of a supervised machine learning system to predict the consequences of untreated bruxism (teeth grinding) on gingival (gum) recession and jaw pain (most often bilateral jaw pain with possible headaches and limited ability to open the mouth). As a general dentist in a multi-specialty practice, the author has encountered many patients suffering from these issues due to uncontrolled bruxism (teeth grinding) at night. The most effective treatment for managing this problem involves wearing a nightguard during sleep and receiving therapeutic Botox injections to relax the muscles (the masseter muscle) responsible for grinding. However, some patients choose to postpone these treatments, leading to potentially irreversible and costlier consequences in the future. The proposed machine learning model aims to track patients who forgo the recommended treatments and assess the percentage of individuals who will experience worsening jaw pain, gingival (gum) recession, or both within a 3-to-5-year timeframe. By accurately predicting these outcomes, the model seeks to motivate patients to address the root cause proactively, ultimately saving time and pain while improving quality of life and avoiding much costlier treatments such as full-mouth rehabilitation to help recover the loss of vertical dimension of occlusion due to shortened clinical crowns because of bruxism, gingival grafts, etc.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, predictive insights, bruxism, teeth grinding, therapeutic botox, nightguard, gingival recession, gum recession, jaw pain

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Authors: Funda Kul, İsmail Gür

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Pension scheme providers have to price mortality risk by accurate mortality forecasting method. There are many mortality-forecasting methods constructed and used in literature. The Lee-Carter model is the first model to consider stochastic improvement trends in life expectancy. It is still precisely used. Mortality forecasting is done by mortality index in the Lee-Carter model. It is assumed that mortality index fits ARIMA time series model. In this paper, we propose and use dynamic normal inverse gaussian distribution to modeling mortality indes in the Lee-Carter model. Using population mortality data for Italy, France, and Turkey, the model is forecasting capability is investigated, and a comparative analysis with other models is ensured by some well-known benchmarking criterions.

Keywords: mortality, forecasting, lee-carter model, normal inverse gaussian distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 364

Authors: Yoshiaki Shikata, Nobutane Hanayama

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We present a prioritized, limited multi-server processor sharing (PS) system where each server has various capacities, and N (≥2) priority classes are allowed in each PS server. In each prioritized, limited server, different service ratio is assigned to each class request, and the number of requests to be processed is limited to less than a certain number. Routing strategies of such prioritized, limited multi-server PS systems that take into account the capacity of each server are also presented, and a performance evaluation procedure for these strategies is discussed. Practical performance measures of these strategies, such as loss probability, mean waiting time, and mean sojourn time, are evaluated via simulation. In the PS server, at the arrival (or departure) of a request, the extension (shortening) of the remaining sojourn time of each request receiving service can be calculated by using the number of requests of each class and the priority ratio. Utilising a simulation program which executes these events and calculations, the performance of the proposed prioritized, limited multi-server PS rule can be analyzed. From the evaluation results, most suitable routing strategy for the loss or waiting system is clarified.

Keywords: processor sharing, multi-server, various capacity, N-priority classes, routing strategy, loss probability, mean sojourn time, mean waiting time, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Piotr Fiszeder, Marcin Fałdziński, Peter Molnár

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The dynamic conditional correlation model of Engle (2002) is one of the most popular multivariate volatility models. However, this model is based solely on closing prices. It has been documented in the literature that the high and low price of the day can be used in an efficient volatility estimation. We, therefore, suggest a model which incorporates high and low prices into the dynamic conditional correlation framework. Empirical evaluation of this model is conducted on three datasets: currencies, stocks, and commodity exchange-traded funds. The utilisation of realized variances and covariances as proxies for true variances and covariances allows us to reach a strong conclusion that our model outperforms not only the standard dynamic conditional correlation model but also a competing range-based dynamic conditional correlation model.

Keywords: volatility, DCC model, high and low prices, range-based models, covariance forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 192

Authors: Disha Bhanot, Vinish Kathuria

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This study focusses on the issue of distress sale in horticulture sector in India, which faces unique challenges, given the perishable nature of horticulture crops, seasonal production and paucity of post-harvest produce management links. Distress sale, from a farmer’s perspective may be defined as urgent sale of normal or distressed goods, at deeply discounted prices (way below the cost of production) and it is usually characterized by unfavorable conditions for the seller (farmer). The small and marginal farmers, often involved in subsistence farming, stand to lose substantially if they receive lower prices than expected prices (typically framed in relation to cost of production). Distress sale maximizes price uncertainty of produce leading to substantial income loss; and with increase in input costs of farming, the high variability in harvest price severely affects profit margin of farmers, thereby affecting their survival. The objective of this study is to model the occurrence of distress sale by tomato cultivators in the Indian state of Maharashtra, against the background of differential access to set of factors such as - capital, irrigation facilities, warehousing, storage and processing facilities, and institutional arrangements for procurement etc. Data is being collected using primary survey of over 200 farmers in key tomato growing areas of Maharashtra, asking information on the above factors in addition to seeking information on cost of cultivation, selling price, time gap between harvesting and selling, role of middleman in selling, besides other socio-economic variables. Farmers selling their produce far below the cost of production would indicate an occurrence of distress sale. Occurrence of distress sale would then be modelled as a function of farm, household and institutional characteristics. Heckman-two-stage model would be applied to find the probability/likelihood of a famer falling into distress sale as well as to ascertain how the extent of distress sale varies in presence/absence of various factors. Findings of the study would recommend suitable interventions and promotion of strategies that would help farmers better manage price uncertainties, avoid distress sale and increase profit margins, having direct implications on poverty.

Keywords: distress sale, horticulture, income loss, India, price uncertainity

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Butchi Kameswara Rao Chittem, Rooban Kumar

Abstract:

Cement concrete is a complex mixture of different materials. Concrete is believed to have a good fire resistance. Behaviour of concrete depends on its mix proportions and its constituent materials when it is subjected to elevated temperatures. Loss in compressive strength, loss in weight or mass, change in colour and spall of concrete are reported in literature as effects of elevated temperature on concrete. In this paper results are reported on the behaviour of normal strength concrete and high strength concrete subjected to temperatures 200°C, 400°C, 600°C, and 800°C and different cooling regimes viz. air cooling, water quenching. Rebound hammer test was also conducted to study the changes in surface hardness of concrete specimens subjected to elevated temperatures.

Keywords: normal strength concrete, high-strength concrete, temperature, NDT

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