Search results for: future trends

Authors: Zahira Belkacemi

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One of the most important tools in conservation biology is information on the geographic distribution of species and the variables determining those patterns. In this study, we used maximum-entropy niche modeling (Maxent) to predict the current and future distribution of Anthus pratensis using climatic variables. The results showed that the species would not be highly affected by the climate change in shifting its distribution; however, the results of this study should be improved by taking into account other predictors, and that the NATURA 2000 protected sites will be efficient at 42% in protecting the species.

Keywords: anthus pratensis, climate change, Europe, species distribution model

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Authors: R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi, A. Flammini, A. Garcia-Marin, J. L. Ayuso-Munoz

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The climate change, mainly due to greenhouse gas emissions associated to human activities, has been modifying hydrologic processes with a direct effect on air surface temperature that has significantly increased in the last century at global scale. In this context the Mediterranean area is considered to be particularly sensitive to the climate change impacts on temperature indices. An analysis finalized to study the evolution of temperature indices and to check the existence of significant trends in the Umbria Region (Italy) is presented. Temperature data were obtained by seven meteorological stations uniformly distributed in the study area and characterized by very long series of temperature observations (at least 60 years) spanning the 1924-2015 period. A set of 39 temperature indices represented by monthly and annual mean, average maximum and average minimum temperatures, has been derived. The trend analysis was realized by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, while the non-parametric Pettit test and the parametric Standard Normal Homogeneity test (SNHT) were used to check the presence of breakpoints or in-homogeneities due to environmental changes/anthropic activity or climate change effects. The Umbria region, in agreement with other recent studies exploring the temperature behavior in Italy, shows a general increase in all temperature indices, with the only exception of Gubbio site that exhibits very light negative trends or absence of trend. The presence of break points and in-homogeneity was widely explored through the selected tests and the results were checked on the basis of the well-known metadata of the meteorological stations.

Keywords: reception theory, reading, literary translation, horizons of expectation, reader

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Authors: Md Tareq Ferdous Khan, Shrabanti Mazumder, MB Rao

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Background: Substance use during pregnancy is a longstanding public health problem that results in severe consequences for pregnant women and fetuses. Methods: Eight (2011-2018) datasets on pregnant women’s admissions are extracted from TEDS-A. Distributions of sociodemographic, substance abuse behaviors, and clinical characteristics are constructed and compared over the years for trends by the Cochran-Armitage test. Market basket analysis is used in mining the association among polysubstance abuse. Results: Over the years, pregnant woman admissions as the percentage of total and female admissions remain stable, where total annual admissions range from 1.54 to about 2 million with the female share of 33.30% to 35.61%. Pregnant women aged 21-29, 12 or more years of education, white race, unemployed, holding independent living status are among the most vulnerable. Concerns prevail on a significant number of polysubstance users, young age at first use, frequency of daily users, and records of prior admissions (60%). Trends of abused primary substances show a significant rise in heroin (66%) and methamphetamine (46%) over the years, although the latest year shows a considerable downturn. On the other hand, significant decreasing patterns are evident for alcohol (43%), marijuana or hashish (24%), cocaine or crack (23%), other opiates or synthetics (36%), and benzodiazepines (29%). Basket analysis reveals some patterns of co-occurrence of substances consistent over the years. Conclusions: This comprehensive study can work as a reference to identify the most vulnerable groups based on their characteristics and deal with the most hazardous substances from their evidence of co-occurrence.

Keywords: basket analysis, pregnant women, substance abuse, trend analysis

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Authors: Bronwyn Griffin, Caroline Acton, Tona Gillen, Roy Kimble

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Background: Bicycle riding is a common recreational activity enjoyed by many children throughout Australia that has been associated with the usual caveat of benefits related to exercise and recreation. Given Australia was the first country in the world to introduce cyclist helmet laws in 1991, very few publications have reviewed paediatric cycling injuries (fatal or non-fatal) since. Objectives: To identify trends in children (0-16 years) who required admission for greater than 24 hours following a bicycle-related injury (fatal and non-fatal) in Queensland. Further, to discuss changes that have occurred in paediatric cycling injury trends in Queensland since a prominent local study/publication in 1995. This paper aims to establish evidence to inform interventions promoting safer riding to parents, children and communities. Methods: Data on paediatric (0-16 years) cycling injuries in Queensland resulting in hospital admission more than 24 hours across three tertiary paediatric hospitals in Brisbane between November 2008-June 2015 was compiled by the Paediatric Trauma Data Registry for non-fatal injuries. The Child Death Review Team at the Queensland Families and Childhood Commission provided data on fatalities in children <17years from (June 2004 –June 2015). Comparing trends to a local study published in 1995 Results: Between 2008-2015 there were 197 patients admitted for greater than 24 hours following a cycling injury. The median age was 11 years, with males more frequently involved (n=139, 87%) compared to females. Mean length of stay was three days, with 47 (28%) children admitted to PICU, location of injury was most often the street (n=63, 37%). Between 2004 –2015 there were 15 fatalities (Incidence rate 0.25/100,000); all were male, 14/15 occurred on the street, with eight stated to have not been wearing a helmet, 11/15 children came from the least advantaged socio-economic group (SEIFA) compared to a local publication in 1995, finding of 94 fatalities between (1981-1992). Conclusions: There has been a notable decrease in incidence of fatalities between the two time periods with incidence rates dropping from 1.75-0.25/100,000. More statistics need to be run to ascertain if this is a true reduction or perhaps a decrease in children riding bicycles. Injuries that occur on the street that come in contact with a car remain of serious concern. The purpose of this paper is not to discourage bicycle riding among child and adolescent populations, rather, inform parents and the wider community about the risks associated with cycling in order to reduce injuries associated with this sport, whilst promoting safe cycling.

Keywords: paediatric, cycling, trauma, prevention, emergency

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Authors: M. F. Nawaz, S. Gul, T. H. Farooq, M. T. Siddiqui, M. Asif, I. Ahmad, N. K. Niazi

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In Pakistan, major demands of fuel wood and timber wood are fulfilled by agroforestry. However, the information regarding economic significance of agroforestry and its productivity in Pakistan is still insufficient and unreliable. Survey of field conditions to examine the agroforestry status at local level helps us to know the future trends and to formulate the policies for sustainable wood supply. The objectives of this research were to examine the actual status and potential of agroforestry and to point out the barriers that are faced by farmers in the adoption of agroforestry. Research was carried out in Chiniot district, Pakistan because it is the famous city for furniture industry that is largely dependent on farm trees. A detailed survey of district Chiniot was carried out from 150 randomly selected farmer respondents using multi-objective oriented and pre-tested questionnaire. It was found that linear tree planting method was more adopted (45%) as compared to linear + interplanting (42%) and/or compact planting (12.6%). Chi-square values at P-value <0.5 showed that age (11.35) and education (17.09) were two more important factors in the quick adoption of agroforestry as compared to land holdings (P-value of 0.7). The major reason of agroforestry adoption was to obtain income, fodder and fuelwood. The most dominant species in farmlands was shisham (Dalbergia sissoo) but since last five years, mostly farmers were growing Sufeida (Eucalyptus camaldulensis), kikar (Acacia nilotica) and popular (Populus deltoides) on their fields due to “Shisham die-back” problem. It was found that agro-forestry can be increased by providing good quality planting material to farmers and improving wood markets.

Keywords: agroforestry, trees, services, agriculture, farmers

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Authors: V. Benidze

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After the Rose Revolution of 2003, Georgia has achieved an unparalleled socioeconomic success. However, economic growth since 2012 has been sluggish and certainly not enough to rapidly improve the county’s standard of living that still remains substantially low compared to that in developed nations. Recent poor economic performance has shown that some key challenges need to be addressed if Georgia is to achieve high future economic growth that will decrease the poverty rate and create a middle class in the country. This paper offers in detail analysis of the economic performance of Georgia since 2012 and identifies key challenges facing the country’s economy. The main challenge going forward will be transforming Georgia from a consumption-driven to a production-oriented economy. It is identified that mobilizing domestic investment through savings, attracting foreign investment in tradable sectors and expanding the country’s export base will be crucial in the facilitation of the above-mentioned structural transformation. As the outcome of the research, the paper suggests a strategy for accelerating Georgia’ future economic growth and offers recommendations based on the relevant conclusions.

Keywords: challenges, development, economic growth, economic policy, Georgia

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Authors: Rehana Khan

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Background: The study investigates the experiences of Tiger Teams within the Sydney Local Health District during the COVID-19 pandemic. Aim: The aims were to understand the experiences of the Tiger Team members, to evaluate the effectiveness of Tiger Teams, and to elicit any learnings for future implementation of Tiger Teams in a similar context. Methods: Tiger Team members who worked from March 2020 to January 2022 were approached, with 23 members agreeing to participate in the study. Individual interviews were undertaken by a researcher on a virtual platform. Thematic analysis was used to analyse the data. Saturation was deemed to have been reached when no new themes or subthemes arose within the final three interviews. Results: Four themes emerged: diversity worked well in Tiger Teams; fear of the unknown and challenging conversations were the main challenges of Tiger Teams; improved use of resources and more structure around the strategy of the Tiger Team model would help in future implementations; and Sydney Local Health District’s response to the pandemic was uniformly considered effective in keeping the community safe. In relation to Sydney Local Health District’s response in future pandemics, participants suggested having a pool of staff in readiness to undertake Tiger Team duties when required; prioritise staff welfare at all levels of involvement during a pandemic; maintaining transparent communication and relationship building between Executive level, Tiger Team members and clinical floor level in relation to decision making; and improve documentation, including evaluations of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Implications: The study provides constructive insights into the experiences of Tiger Team members, and these findings will help inform future planning for surge and secondment of staff in public health emergencies.

Keywords: Tiger Team, pandemic response, future planning, COVID-19

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Authors: Jiahua Zhang, Qing Chang, Fengmei Yao

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Studying on the response of vegetation phenology to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is important for understanding and predicting future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics andthe adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset and climate data were used to analyze the dynamics of grassland phenology as well as their correlation with climatic factors in different eco-geographic regions and elevation units across the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that during 2003–2012, the start of the grassland greening season (SOS) appeared later while the end of the growing season (EOS) appeared earlier following the plateau’s precipitation and heat gradients from southeast to northwest. The multi-year mean value of SOS showed differences between various eco-geographic regions and was significantly impacted by average elevation and regional average precipitation during spring. Regional mean differences for EOS were mainly regulated by mean temperature during autumn. Changes in trends of SOS in the central and eastern eco-geographic regions were coupled to the mean temperature during spring, advancing by about 7d/°C. However, in the two southwestern eco-geographic regions, SOS was delayed significantly due to the impact of spring precipitation. The results also showed that the SOS occurred later with increasing elevation, as expected, with a delay rate of 0.66 d/100m. For 2003–2012, SOS showed an advancing trend in low-elevation areas, but a delayed trend in high-elevation areas, while EOS was delayed in low-elevation areas, but advanced in high-elevation areas. Grassland SOS and EOS changes may be influenced by a variety of other environmental factors in each eco-geographic region.

Keywords: grassland, phenology, MODIS, eco-geographic regions, elevation, climatic factors, Tibetan Plateau

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Authors: Kumiko Inagaki

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Because of the rapidly changing social and industrial world, career education in Japan has recently gained in popularity with the government’s support. However, it has not fostered proactive mindsets and attitudes in the youths. This paper first provides a background of career education in Japan. Next, based on the International Survey of Youth Attitude, Japanese youths’ views of themselves and their future were identified and then compared to the views of youths in six other countries. Assessments of the feelings of self-satisfaction and future hopes of Japanese youths returned very low scores. Suggestions were offered on career education in order to promote a positive self-image.

Keywords: career education, self-esteem, self-image, youth attitude

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Authors: D. Sankara Reddy, T. Kranthi Kumar, K. Sreevani

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This paper investigates the impact of carrier frequency offset (CFO) on the performance of different MIMO-OFDM schemes with high spectral efficiency for next generation of terrestrial digital TV. We show that all studied MIMO-OFDM schemes are sensitive to CFO when it is greater than 1% of intercarrier spacing. We show also that the Alamouti scheme is the most sensitive MIMO scheme to CFO.

Keywords: modulation and multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM), signal processing for transmission carrier frequency offset, future digital TV, imaging and signal processing

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Authors: Muhammd Usman Sardar, Mazhar Hussain Baloch, Muhammad Shahbaz Ahmad, Zahir Javed Paracha

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Likewise other developing countries in the world, Pakistan is furthermore suffering from electrical energy deficiency as adverse well-being nominated. Its generation of electricity has become reliant onto a great range of conventional sources since the last ten of years. The foreseeable exhaustion of petroleum and conventional resources will be alarming in continued growth and development for future in Pakistan so renewable energy interchange have to be employed by interesting the majority of power grid network. Energy adding-up through solar photovoltaic based systems and projects can offset the shortfall to such an extent with this sustainable natural resources and most promising technologies. An assessment of solar energy potential for electricity generation is being presented for fulfilling the energy demands with higher level of reliability. This research study estimates the present and future approaching renewable energy resource for power generation to off-grid independent setup or energizing the existed conventional power grids of Pakistan to becoming self-sustained for its entire outfit.

Keywords: powergrid network, solar photovoltaic setups, solar power generation, solar energy technology

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Authors: Jonas Palmer, Leon Brüning, Lukas Himmelsbach

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The worldwide ambitions to transform the transportation sector are increasingly affecting the safety conditions for all traffic participants and the required infrastructure. To contribute to the transformation and for health aspects, individuals search for carbon-free alternatives that include physical excitation. Especially e-bikes experience a growing demand within the last few years and consequently change the safety requirements. E-cyclists are exposed to amplified risks due to higher velocity in comparison to classic cyclists. Furthermore, cyclists suffer from a lack of infrastructure, rider assistance systems as well as awareness of other road users. For minimizing the risk of accidents, it is crucial to identify, develop and implement safety measures for cyclists. The paper aims to contribute to future research with delivering an overview of the latest publications and to subsequently identify essential research gaps. Therefore, it is essential to analyze the areas of technical adjustments as well as legal aspects and the correlation of both. The review`s insights can intensify the awareness of safety issues related to e-bikes and promote the development and implementation of appropriate measures.

Keywords: e-bike safety measures, future mobility, risk management, road safety

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Authors: Yakubu Bala Mohammed, Nadire Chavus, Mohammed Bulama

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Generative Pre-trained Transformer (ChatGPT) represents an artificial intelligence (AI) tool capable of swiftly generating comprehensive responses to prompts and follow-up inquiries. This emerging AI tool was introduced in November 2022 by OpenAI firm, an American AI research laboratory, utilizing substantial language models. This present study aims to delve into the potential future consequences of ChatGPT usage in education using AI-based algorithms. The paper will bring forth the likely potential risks of ChatGBT utilization, such as academic integrity concerns, unfair learning assessments, excessive reliance on AI, and dissemination of inaccurate information using four machine learning algorithms: eXtreme-Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Support vector machine (SVM), Emotional artificial neural network (EANN), and Random forest (RF) would be used to analyze the study collected data due to their robustness. Finally, the findings of the study will assist education stakeholders in understanding the future implications of ChatGPT usage in education and propose solutions and directions for upcoming studies.

Keywords: machine learning, ChatGPT, education, learning, implications

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Authors: Arshia Khan, Hans-Dietrich Haasis

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Different tools of the supply chain should be managed very efficiently in mass customization. In the automobile industry, there are different strategies to manage these tools. We need to investigate which strategies among the different ones are successful and which are not. There is lack in literature regarding such analysis. Keeping this in view, the purpose of this paper is to construct a framework and model which can help to analyze the supply chain of mass customized automobiles quantitatively for future studies. Furthermore, we will also consider that which type of data can be used for the suggested model and where it can be taken from. Such framework can help to bring insight for future analysis.

Keywords: mass customization, supply chain, inventory, distribution, automobile industry

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Authors: Mais Haj Qasem, Maen M. Al Assaf, Ali Rodan

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Parallel hybrid storage systems consist of a hierarchy of different storage devices that vary in terms of data reading speed performance. As we ascend in the hierarchy, data reading speed becomes faster. Thus, migrating the application’ important data that will be accessed in the near future to the uppermost level will reduce the application I/O waiting time; hence, reducing its execution elapsed time. In this research, we implement trace-driven two-levels parallel hybrid storage system prototype that consists of HDDs and SSDs. The prototype uses data mining techniques to classify application’ data in order to determine its near future data accesses in parallel with the its on-demand request. The important data (i.e. the data that the application will access in the near future) are continuously migrated to the uppermost level of the hierarchy. Our simulation results show that our data migration approach integrated with data mining techniques reduces the application execution elapsed time when using variety of traces in at least to 22%.

Keywords: hybrid storage system, data mining, recurrent neural network, support vector machine

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Authors: Bi-Huei Tsai

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This work explores the inter-region investment behaviors of integrated circuit (IC) design industry from Taiwan to China using the amount of foreign direct investment (FDI). According to the mutual dependence among different IC design industrial locations, Lotka-Volterra model is utilized to explore the FDI interactions between South and East China. Effects of inter-regional collaborations on FDI flows into China are considered. Evolutions of FDIs into South China for IC design industry significantly inspire the subsequent FDIs into East China, while FDIs into East China for Taiwan’s IC design industry significantly hinder the subsequent FDIs into South China. The supply chain along IC industry includes IC design, manufacturing, packing and testing enterprises. I C manufacturing, packaging and testing industries depend on IC design industry to gain advanced business benefits. The FDI amount from Taiwan’s IC design industry into East China is the greatest among the four regions: North, East, Mid-West and South China. The FDI amount from Taiwan’s IC design industry into South China is the second largest. If IC design houses buy more equipment and bring more capitals in South China, those in East China will have pressure to undertake more FDIs into East China to maintain the leading position advantages of the supply chain in East China. On the other hand, as the FDIs in East China rise, the FDIs in South China will successively decline since capitals have concentrated in East China. Prediction of Lotka-Volterra model in FDI trends is accurate because the industrial interactions between the two regions are included. Finally, this work confirms that the FDI flows cannot reach a stable equilibrium point, so the FDI inflows into East and South China will expand in the future.

Keywords: Lotka-Volterra model, foreign direct investment, competitive, Equilibrium analysis

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

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Authors: Xiaoqing Peng, Aijing Luo, Yang Chen

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Background: Cyberchondria, as an "emerging risk" accompanied by the information era, is a new abnormal pattern characterized by excessive or repeated online searches for health-related information and escalating health anxiety, which endangers people's physical and mental health and poses a huge threat to public health. Objective: To explore and discuss the research status, hotspots and trends of Cyberchondria. Methods: Based on a total of 77 articles regarding "Cyberchondria" extracted from Web of Science from the beginning till October 2019, the literature trends, countries, institutions, hotspots are analyzed by bibliometric analysis, the concept definition of Cyberchondria, instruments, relevant factors, treatment and intervention are discussed as well. Results: Since "Cyberchondria" was put forward for the first time in 2001, the last two decades witnessed a noticeable increase in the amount of literature, especially during 2014-2019, it quadrupled dramatically at 62 compared with that before 2014 only at 15, which shows that Cyberchondria has become a new theme and hot topic in recent years. The United States was the most active contributor with the largest publication (23), followed by England (11) and Australia (11), while the leading institutions were Baylor University(7) and University of Sydney(7), followed by Florida State University(4) and University of Manchester(4). The WoS categories "Psychiatry/Psychology " and "Computer/ Information Science "were the areas of greatest influence. The concept definition of Cyberchondria is not completely unified in the world, but it is generally considered as an abnormal behavioral pattern and emotional state and has been invoked to refer to the anxiety-amplifying effects of online health-related searches. The first and the most frequently cited scale for measuring the severity of Cyberchondria called “The Cyberchondria Severity Scale (CSS) ”was developed in 2014, which conceptualized Cyberchondria as a multidimensional construct consisting of compulsion, distress, excessiveness, reassurance, and mistrust of medical professionals which was proved to be not necessary for this construct later. Since then, the Brazilian, German, Turkish, Polish and Chinese versions were subsequently developed, improved and culturally adjusted, while CSS was optimized to a simplified version (CSS-12) in 2019, all of which should be worthy of further verification. The hotspots of Cyberchondria mainly focuses on relevant factors as follows: intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety sensitivity, obsessive-compulsive disorder, internet addition, abnormal illness behavior, Whiteley index, problematic internet use, trying to make clear the role played by “associated factors” and “anxiety-amplifying factors” in the development of Cyberchondria, to better understand the aetiological links and pathways in the relationships between hypochondriasis, health anxiety and online health-related searches. Although the treatment and intervention of Cyberchondria are still in the initial stage of exploration, there are kinds of meaningful attempts to seek effective strategies from different aspects such as online psychological treatment, network technology management, health information literacy improvement and public health service. Conclusion: Research on Cyberchondria is in its infancy but should be deserved more attention. A conceptual consensus on Cyberchondria, a refined assessment tool, prospective studies conducted in various populations, targeted treatments for it would be the main research direction in the near future.

Keywords: cyberchondria, hypochondriasis, health anxiety, online health-related searches

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Logistics service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilisation and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transport capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organise more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe such planning aspects, this paper gives a structured literature review on transport planning problems. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing-, network-design- and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research objectives

Keywords: choice of transport mode, fleet-sizing, freight transport planning, multimodal, review, service network design

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Authors: Carlos Tapia Cortez, Serkan Saydam, Jeff Coulton, Claude Sammut

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Strategic mineral commodities (SMC) both energetic and metals have long been fundamental for human beings. There is a strong and long-run relation between the mineral resources industry and society's evolution, with the provision of primary raw materials, becoming one of the most significant drivers of economic growth. Due to mineral resources’ relevance for the entire economy and society, an understanding of the SMC market behaviour to simulate price fluctuations has become crucial for governments and firms. For any human activity, SMC price fluctuations are affected by economic, geopolitical, environmental, technological and psychological issues, where cognition has a major role. Cognition is defined as the capacity to store information in memory, processing and decision making for problem-solving or human adaptation. Thus, it has a significant role in those systems that exhibit dynamic equilibrium through time, such as economic growth. Cognition allows not only understanding past behaviours and trends in SCM markets but also supports future expectations of demand/supply levels and prices, although speculations are unavoidable. Technological developments may also be defined as a cognitive system. Since the Industrial Revolution, technological developments have had a significant influence on SMC production costs and prices, likewise allowing co-integration between commodities and market locations. It suggests a close relation between structural breaks, technology and prices evolution. SCM prices forecasting have been commonly addressed by econometrics and Gaussian-probabilistic models. Econometrics models may incorporate the relationship between variables; however, they are statics that leads to an incomplete approach of prices evolution through time. Gaussian-probabilistic models may evolve through time; however, price fluctuations are addressed by the assumption of random behaviour and normal distribution which seems to be far from the real behaviour of both market and prices. Random fluctuation ignores the evolution of market events and the technical and temporal relation between variables, giving the illusion of controlled future events. Normal distribution underestimates price fluctuations by using restricted ranges, curtailing decisions making into a pre-established space. A proper understanding of SMC's price dynamics taking into account the historical-cognitive relation between economic, technological and psychological factors over time is fundamental in attempting to simulate prices. The aim of this paper is to discuss the SMC market cognition hypothesis and empirically demonstrate its dynamic-cognitive capacity. Three of the largest and traded SMC's: oil, copper and gold, will be assessed to examine the economic, technological and psychological cognition respectively.

Keywords: commodity price simulation, commodity price uncertainties, dynamic-cognition, dynamic systems

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Authors: Alexander K. Guo

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PM2.5 poses a large threat to people’s health and the environment and is an issue of large concern in Beijing, brought to the attention of the government by the media. In addition, both the United States Embassy in Beijing and the government of China have increased monitoring of PM2.5 in recent years, and have made real-time data available to the public. This report utilizes hourly historical data (2008-2016) from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing for the first time. The first objective was to attempt to fit probability distributions to the data to better predict a number of days exceeding the standard, and the second was to uncover any yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly patterns and trends that may arise to better understand of air control policy. In these data, 66,650 hours and 2687 days provided valid data. Lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions were fit to the data through an estimation of parameters. The Chi-squared test was employed to compare the actual data with the fitted distributions. The data were used to uncover trends, patterns, and improvements in PM2.5 concentration over the period of time with valid data in addition to specific periods of time that received large amounts of media attention, analyzed to gain a better understanding of causes of air pollution. The data show a clear indication that Beijing’s air quality is unhealthy, with an average of 94.07µg/m3 across all 66,650 hours with valid data. It was found that no distribution fit the entire dataset of all 2687 days well, but each of the three above distribution types was optimal in at least one of the yearly data sets, with the lognormal distribution found to fit recent years better. An improvement in air quality beginning in 2014 was discovered, with the first five months of 2016 reporting an average PM2.5 concentration that is 23.8% lower than the average of the same period in all years, perhaps the result of various new pollution-control policies. It was also found that the winter and fall months contained more days in both good and extremely polluted categories, leading to a higher average but a comparable median in these months. Additionally, the evening hours, especially in the winter, reported much higher PM2.5 concentrations than the afternoon hours, possibly due to the prohibition of trucks in the city in the daytime and the increased use of coal for heating in the colder months when residents are home in the evening. Lastly, through analysis of special intervals that attracted media attention for either unnaturally good or bad air quality, the government’s temporary pollution control measures, such as more intensive road-space rationing and factory closures, are shown to be effective. In summary, air quality in Beijing is improving steadily and do follow standard probability distributions to an extent, but still needs improvement. Analysis will be updated when new data become available.

Keywords: Beijing, distribution, patterns, pm2.5, trends

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Authors: Shilpi Tripathi

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After independence, Bangladesh had to learn to survive on its own without any economic crutches (aid). Foreign direct investment (FDI) became a crucial economic tool for the country to become economically independent. The government started removing restrictions to encourage foreign investment, economic growth, international trade, and the environment. FDI is considered as a way to bridge the saving-investment gap, reduce poverty, balance trade, create jobs for its vast labour force, increase foreign exchange earnings and acquire new modern technology and management skills in the country. At the same time, spillovers of foreign investments in Bangladesh, such as low wages (compared to laborers of developed countries), poor working conditions and unbridled exploitation of the domestic resources, environmental externalities, etc., cannot be ignored. The most important adverse implications of FDI inflows noticed are the environmental problems, which are further impacting the health and society of the country. This paper empirically studies the relationship between FDI, economic growth, international trade (exports and Imports), and the environment since 1996. The first part of the paper focuses on the background and trends of FDI, GDP, trade, and environment (CO₂). The second part focuses on the literature review on the relationship between all the variables. The last part of the paper examines the results of empirical analysis like co-integration and Granger causality. The findings of the paper reveal that a uni-directional relationship exists between FDI, CO₂, and international trade (exports and imports). The direction of the causality reveals that FDI inflow is one of the major contributors to high-volume international trade. At the same time, FDI and international trade both are contributing to carbon emissions in Bangladesh. The paper concludes with the policy recommendations that will ensure environmentally friendly trade, investment, and growth in Bangladesh for the future.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, GDP, international trade, CO₂, Granger causality, environment

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Authors: Sankaran Potti Narasimhan

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Costal Karnataka is sandwiched between Arabian Sea and the biodiversity hotspot of Western Ghats. This has provided a rich vegetation, canopy and humidity for the sustainable growth and evolution of many orchid populations. Similar to many other biodiversity hostpot regions of India and the world, this region also faces threat from anthropogenic activities and climate change. Hence, there is a need to study the current orchid diversity and trends in population as well as an effective conservation strategy. Costal belt of Karnataka state of India extends over 325 kilometers and an area of 18,000 km2. The region encompasses two national parks such as the Anshi National Park and the Kudremukh National Park. The study regions also include two Wild Life Sanctuaries such as the Someshwara Wildlife Sanctuary and Mookambika Wildlife Sanctuary. The estimated number of orchids in the region includes 30 genera and 45 species. Both terrestrial and epiphytic orchids are found in this region. The region contains many red listed orchids such as Trias stocksii (Critically endangered), Eriad alzellii (Lower risk vulnerable) and Dendrobnium ovatum (Vulnerable). The important terrestrial orchids of the region are Geodorum, Habenaria, Lipparis, Malaxis, Nervilia, Pachystoma, Pectelis, Peristylus, Tropidia and Zeuxine. The epiphytic forms includes Acampe, Aerides, Bulbophyllum, Cleisostoma, Conchidum, Cottonia, Cymbidium, Dendronium, Eria, Flickingeria, Gastrochilus, Kingidium, Luisia, Oberonia, Phalaenopsis, Pholidota, Porpax, Rhynchostylis, Sirhookera and Trias. The current paper discusses the population strength and changes in the population structure of these orchids along with proposed conservation strategies.

Keywords: orchid diversity, bulbophyllum, dendrobium, orchid conservation

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Authors: Sara Zatir, Kouide Brahimi, Amira Zatir

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The planning and the environment have long evolved at the same two parallel tracks. But today, we can design a layout without addressing its environmental impact on the landscape. And the role of The documents of the regulatory planning is to control the urbanization of a common and its effects indirectly on the urban environment, but what about the urban landscape? Algeria is like many countries in the world leans primarily on developing sustainable economy, it was officially declared in the Maghreb countries, with the enactment of Law No. 01-20 of 12 December 2001 on the organization and sustainable development of the territory, one of the purposes of this law is the protection, mapping values and rational use of, natural resources, heritage and the natural preservation for future generations. However, Algeria initiatives have recently been undertaken but it still have some infancy which can be detected by the cavity between the delineation instruments,regulations and. In this context, we should note the important role of public authorities in the situation of the living and its future. The idea is to find a balance from the unbalanced conditions (between present and future generations, between economic needs, and the needs of environmental protection and cultural, between individual and collective interests) and to develop new strategies management laws and the urban landscape.

Keywords: Algeria, sustainable, development urban landscapes, laws

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Authors: Georg Brunnthaller, Sandra Stein, Wilfried Sihn

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Transportation service providers are facing increasing volatility concerning future transport demand. Short-term planning horizons and planning uncertainties lead to reduced capacity utilization and increasing empty mileage. To overcome these challenges, a model is proposed to continuously pre-plan future transportation capacity in order to redesign and adjust the intermodal fleet accordingly. It is expected that the model will enable logistics service providers to organize more economically and ecologically sustainable transport chains in a more flexible way. To further describe these planning aspects, this paper gives an overview on transportation planning problems in a structured way. The focus is on strategic and tactical planning levels, comprising relevant fleet-sizing, service-network-design and choice-of-carriers-problems. Models and their developed solution techniques are presented, and the literature review is concluded with an outlook to our future research directions.

Keywords: freight transportation planning, multimodal, fleet-sizing, service network design, choice of transportation mode, review

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Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

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The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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Authors: Anastasiya Paltarzhitskaya

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Subjective time plays an important role in consciousness processes and self-awareness at the moment. The concept of intrinsic neural timescales (INT) explains the difference in perceiving various time intervals. The capacity to experience the present builds on the fundamental properties of temporal cognition. The challenge that both philosophy and neuroscience try to answer is how the brain differentiates the present from the past and future. In our work, we analyze papers which describe mechanisms involved in the perception of ‘present’ and ‘non-present’, i.e., future and past moments. Taking into account that we perceive time intervals even during rest or relaxation, we suppose that the default-mode network activity can code time features, including the present moment. We can compare some results of time perceptual studies, where brain activity was shown in states with different flows of time, including resting states and during “mental time travel”. According to the concept of mental traveling, we employ a range of scenarios which demand episodic memory. However, some papers show that the hippocampal region does not activate during time traveling. It is a controversial result that is further complicated by the phenomenological aspect that includes a holistic set of information about the individual’s past and future.

Keywords: temporal consciousness, time perception, memory, present

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Authors: Rinda Kurnia

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Despite the differences and additional needs in the learning process, every individual has the right to receive educational services in order to enhance her/his abilities and potentials. This notion underlies the principle of inclusive education system, something many countries in the world are striving for since the UNESCO Salamanca Statement in 1994. This paper will consider different views that many theorists have published of the term inclusive, the issues, challenges, and dilemmas encountered during the practice, as well as some possible ways forward. It is being described, criticized and analyzed using the standpoint of a shadow teacher in an inclusive secondary school in Jakarta, Indonesia.

Keywords: inclusive education, inclusive education challenges, inclusive education dilemmas, inclusive education future plans, inclusive education issues

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Authors: Ahmet Sekreter

Abstract:

Although there are conceptual similarities in terms of financial products between conventional and Islamic finance, they are entirely different financial systems. Despite Islamic finance’s small size in the conventional finance world, its promising growth makes Islamic finance a hot topic both in academia and business world. Today customers can access sophisticated Islamic financial products not only in Muslim countries but also in Europe. This study analyzes Islamic finance and its products and includes a brief overview of Islamic finance in Europe. Literature review is the basis of this paper. The author analyzed the academic papers, numerical data, and estimations to set a perspective for the future of Islamic finance in Europe. Findings show that UK is the main hub for the Islamic finance, and it will remain so in the near future.

Keywords: islamic finance, islamic banking, islamic finance in Europe, finance

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Authors: Romeu Bonk Mesquita

Abstract:

Argentina is the South American number 1 country of destiny to intraregional migration flows. This research aims to shed light on the main trends of the Argentine immigrant policy from 2016 on, when Mauricio Marci was elected President, taking the approval of the current and fairly protective of human rights Ley de Migraciones (2003) as an analytical starting point. Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) serves as the theoretical background, highlighting decision-making processes and institutional designs that encourage or constraint political and social actors. The analysis goes through domestic and international levels, observing how immigration policy is formulated as a public policy and is simultaneously connected to Mercosur and other international organizations, such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Thus, the study revolves around the Direccion Nacional de Migraciones, which is the state agency in charge of executing the country’s immigrant policy, as to comprehend how its internal processes and the connections it has with both domestic and international institutions shape Argentina’s immigrant policy formulation and execution. Also, it aims to locate the migration agenda within the country’s contemporary social and political context. The methodology is qualitative, case-based and oriented by process-tracing techniques. Empirical evidence gathered includes official documents and data, media coverage and interviews to key-informants. Recent events, such as the Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia 70/2017 issued by President Macri, and the return of discursive association between migration and criminality, indicate a trend of nationalization and securitization of the immigration policy in contemporary Argentina.

Keywords: Argentine foreign policy, human rights, immigrant policy, Mercosur

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