Search results for: General Linear Model

Authors: Sabina Huč, Staffan Svensson, Tomaž Hozjan

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Timber structures may be exposed to various environmental conditions during their service life. Often, the structures have to resist extreme changes in the relative humidity of surrounding air, with simultaneously carrying the loads. Wood material response for this load case is seen as increasing deformation of the timber structure. Relative humidity variations cause moisture changes in timber and consequently shrinkage and swelling of the material. Moisture changes and loads acting together result in mechano-sorptive creep, while sustained load gives viscoelastic creep. In some cases, magnitude of the mechano-sorptive strain can be about five times the elastic strain already at low stress levels. Therefore, analyzing mechano-sorptive creep and its influence on timber structures’ long-term behavior is of high importance. Relatively many one-dimensional rheological models for rheological behavior of wood can be found in literature, while a number of models coupling creep response in each material direction is limited. In this study, mathematical formulation of a coupled two-dimensional mechano-sorptive model and its application to the experimental results are presented. The mechano-sorptive model constitutes of a moisture transport model and a mechanical model. Variation of the moisture content in wood is modelled by multi-Fickian moisture transport model. The model accounts for processes of the bound-water and water-vapor diffusion in wood, that are coupled through sorption hysteresis. Sorption defines a nonlinear relation between moisture content and relative humidity. Multi-Fickian moisture transport model is able to accurately predict unique, non-uniform moisture content field within the timber member over time. Calculated moisture content in timber members is used as an input to the mechanical analysis. In the mechanical analysis, the total strain is assumed to be a sum of the elastic strain, viscoelastic strain, mechano-sorptive strain, and strain due to shrinkage and swelling. Mechano-sorptive response is modelled by so-called spring-dashpot type of a model, that proved to be suitable for describing creep of wood. Mechano-sorptive strain is dependent on change of moisture content. The model includes mechano-sorptive material parameters that have to be calibrated to the experimental results. The calibration is made to the experiments carried out on wooden blocks subjected to uniaxial compressive loaded in tangential direction and varying humidity conditions. The moisture and the mechanical model are implemented in a finite element software. The calibration procedure gives the required, distinctive set of mechano-sorptive material parameters. The analysis shows that mechano-sorptive strain in transverse direction is present, though its magnitude and variation are substantially lower than the mechano-sorptive strain in the direction of loading. The presented mechano-sorptive model enables observing real temporal and spatial distribution of the moisture-induced strains and stresses in timber members. Since the model’s suitability for predicting mechano-sorptive strains is shown and the required material parameters are obtained, a comprehensive advanced analysis of the stress-strain state in timber structures, including connections subjected to constant load and varying humidity is possible.

Keywords: mechanical analysis, mechano-sorptive creep, moisture transport model, timber

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Mukunda Bastola, Frank Nyame-Asiamah

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Economics explanation for privatisation, drawing on neo-liberal market structures and technical efficiency principles has failed to address social imbalance and, distribute the efficiency benefits accrued from privatisation equitably among service users and different classes of people in society. Stakeholders’ interest, which cover ethical values and changing human needs are ignored due to shareholders’ profit maximising strategy with higher service charges. The consequence of these is that, the existing justifications for privatisation have fallen short of customer quality expectations because the underlying plan-based models fail to account for the nuances of customer expectations. We draw on the theory of deferred action to develop a context-based privatisation model, the deferred-based privatisation model, to explain how privatisation could be strategised for the emergent reality of the wider stakeholders’ interests and everyday quality demands of customers which are unpredictable.

Keywords: privatisation, service quality, shareholders, deferred action, deferred-based privatisation model

Procedia PDF Downloads 265

Authors: Shamima Akhter, Siegfried Bauer

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The aim of this study is to analyze the migration process of the rural population of Bangladesh. Heckman Probit model with sample selection was applied in this paper to explore the determinants of migration and intensity of migration at farm household level. The farm survey was conducted in the central part of Bangladesh on 160 farm households with migrant and on 154 farm households without migrant including a total of 316 farm households. The results from the applied model revealed that main determinants of migration at farm household level are household age, economically active males and females, number of young and old dependent members in the household and agricultural land holding. On the other hand, the main determinants of intensity of migration are availability of economically adult male in the household, number of young dependents and agricultural land holding.

Keywords: determinants, Heckman Probit model, migration, rural-urban

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Authors: Abid Boudiar

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We propose a simple model to obtain an exact expression of Tc/(Tc,max) for the temperature-doping phase diagram of superconducting cuprates. We showed that our model predicted most phase diagram scenario. We found the exact special doping points p(opt), p(qcp) and an accurate E(g,max). Some other properties such as the stripes length 100.1°A and the energy gap in cuprates chain
6meV can also be calculated exactly. Another interesting consequence of this simple picture is the new magic numbers and the ability to express everything using a (Tc,p) diagram via the golden ratio.

Keywords: superconducting cuprates, phase, pseudogap, hole doping, strips, golden ratio, soliton

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Authors: Siamak Shahidi, Nasrin Hashemi-Firouzi, Sara Soleimani-Asl, Alireza Komaki

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Introduction: Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive memory and cognitive performance. Recently, an involvement of the serotonergic system and their receptors are suspected in the AD progression. In the present behavioral study, the effects of BIMU (selective 5-HT4 receptor agonist) on cognition and memory in the rat model of AD was investigated. Material and Methods: The animal model of the AD was induced by intracerebroventricular (Icv) injection of amyloid beta (Aβ) in adult male Wistar rats. Animals were divided into experimental groups included control, sham, Aβ, Aβ +BIMU groups. The treatment substances were icv injected (1 μg/μL) for thirty consecutive days. Then, novel object recognition (NOR) and passive avoidance learning (PAL) tests were applied to investigate memory and cognitive performance. Results: Aβ decrease the discrimination index of NOR test. Also, it increases the time spent in the dark compartment during PAL test, as compared with sham and control groups. In addition, compared to Aβ groups, BIMU significantly increased the discrimination index of NOR test and decreased the time spent in the dark compartment of PAL test. Conclusion: These findings suggest that 5-HT4 receptor activation prevents progression of memory and cognitive impairment in a rat model of AD.

Keywords: Alzheimer disease, cognition, memory, serotonin receptors

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Authors: Avan Al-Saffar, Eun-Jin Kim

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Both the logistic growth model and the gompertz growth model are used to describe growth processes. Both models driven by perturbations in different cases are investigated using information theory as a useful measure of sustainability and the variability. Specifically, we study the effect of different oscillatory modulations in the system's parameters on the evolution of the system and Probability Density Function (PDF). We show the maintenance of the initial conditions for a long time. We offer Fisher information analysis in positive and/or negative feedback and explain its implications for the sustainability of population dynamics. We also display a finite amplitude solution due to the purely fluctuating growth rate whereas the periodic fluctuations in negative feedback can lead to break down the system's self-regulation with an exponentially growing solution. In the cases tested, the gompertz and logistic systems show similar behaviour in terms of information and sustainability although they develop differently in time.

Keywords: dynamical systems, fisher information, probability density function (pdf), sustainability

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Authors: V. Jamuna, A. K. Chakravarty, C. S. Patil, Vijay Kumar, M. A. Mir, Rakesh Kumar

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Intense selection of buffaloes for milk production at organized herds of the country without giving due attention to fertility traits viz. pregnancy rate has lead to deterioration in their performances. Aim of study is to develop an optimum model for predicting pregnancy rate and to assess the level of pregnancy rate with respect to milk production Murrah buffaloes. Data pertaining to 1224 lactation records of Murrah buffaloes spread over a period 21 years were analyzed and it was observed that pregnancy rate depicted negative phenotypic association with lactation milk yield (-0.08 ± 0.04). For developing optimum model for pregnancy rate in Murrah buffaloes seven simple and multiple regression models were developed. Among the seven models, model II having only Service period as an independent reproduction variable, was found to be the best prediction model, based on the four statistical criterions (high coefficient of determination (R 2), low mean sum of squares due to error (MSSe), conceptual predictive (CP) value, and Bayesian information criterion (BIC). For standardizing the level of fertility with milk production, pregnancy rate was classified into seven classes with the increment of 10% in all parities, life time and their corresponding average pregnancy rate in relation to the average lactation milk yield (MY).It was observed that to achieve around 2000 kg MY which can be considered optimum for Indian Murrah buffaloes, level of pregnancy rate should be in between 30-50%.

Keywords: life time, pregnancy rate, production, service period, standardization

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Authors: Azizi Cherifa, O. Benzaoui

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The thermal aspects in the design of power circuits often deserve as much attention as pure electric components aspects as the operating temperature has a direct influence on their static and dynamic characteristics. MOSFET is fundamental in the circuits, it is the most widely used device in the current production of semiconductor components using their honorable performance. The aim of this contribution is devoted to the effect of the temperature on the properties of MOSFETs. The study enables us to calculate the drain current as function of bias in both linear and saturated modes. The effect of temperature is evaluated using a numerical simulation, using the laws of mobility and saturation velocity of carriers as a function of temperature.

Keywords: temperature, MOSFET, mobility, transistor

Procedia PDF Downloads 342

Authors: Daniel Puciato, Piotr Oleśniewicz, Julita Markiewicz-Patkowska, Krzysztof Widawski, Michał Rozpara, Władysław Mynarski, Agnieszka Gawlik, Małgorzata Dębska, Soňa Jandová

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Physical activity as a part of people’s everyday life reduces the risk of many diseases, including those induced by lifestyle, e.g. obesity, type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, coronary heart disease, degenerative arthritis, and certain types of cancer. That refers particularly to professionally active people, including the early senior group working on non-manual positions. The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship between physical activity and the socio-economic status of non-manual workers from Wroclaw—one of the biggest cities in Poland, a model setting for such investigations in this part of Europe. The crucial problem in the research is to find out the percentage of respondents who meet the health-related recommendations of the World Health Organization (WHO) concerning the volume, frequency, and intensity of physical activity, as well as to establish if the most important socio-economic factors, such as gender, age, education, marital status, per capita income, savings and debt, determine the compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations. During the research, conducted in 2013, 1,170 people (611 women and 559 men) aged 21–60 years were examined. A diagnostic poll method was applied to collect the data. Physical activity was measured with the use of the short form of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire with extended socio-demographic questions, i.e. concerning gender, age, education, marital status, income, savings or debts. To evaluate the relationship between physical activity and selected socio-economic factors, logistic regression was used (odds ratio statistics). Statistical inference was conducted on the adopted ex ante probability level of p<0.05. The majority of respondents met the volume of physical effort recommended for health benefits. It was particularly noticeable in the case of the examined men. The probability of compliance with the WHO physical activity recommendations was highest for workers aged 21–30 years with secondary or higher education who were single, received highest incomes and had savings. The results indicate the relations between physical activity and socio-economic status in the examined women and men. People with lower socio-economic status (e.g. manual workers) are physically active primarily at work, whereas those better educated and wealthier implement physical effort primarily in their leisure time. Among the investigated subjects, the youngest group of non-manual workers have the best chances to meet the WHO standards of physical activity. The study also confirms that secondary education has a positive effect on the public awareness on the role of physical activity in human life. In general, the analysis of the research indicates that there is a relationship between physical activity and some socio-economic factors of the respondents, such as gender, age, education, marital status, income per capita, and the possession of savings. Although the obtained results cannot be applied for the general population, they show some important trends that will be verified in subsequent studies conducted by the authors of the paper.

Keywords: IPAQ, nonmanual workers, physical activity, socioeconomic factors, WHO

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Authors: O. Adjoul, A. Feugier, K. Benfriha, A. Aoussat

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In general, issues related to design and maintenance are considered in an independent manner. However, the decisions made in these two sets influence each other. The design for maintenance is considered an opportunity to optimize the life cycle cost of a product, particularly in the nuclear or aeronautical field, where maintenance expenses represent more than 60% of life cycle costs. The design of large-scale systems starts with product architecture, a choice of components in terms of cost, reliability, weight and other attributes, corresponding to the specifications. On the other hand, the design must take into account maintenance by improving, in particular, real-time monitoring of equipment through the integration of new technologies such as connected sensors and intelligent actuators. We noticed that different approaches used in the Design For Maintenance (DFM) methods are limited to the simultaneous characterization of the reliability and maintainability of a multi-component system. This article proposes a method of DFM that assists designers to propose dynamic maintenance for multi-component industrial systems. The term "dynamic" refers to the ability to integrate available monitoring data to adapt the maintenance decision in real time. The goal is to maximize the availability of the system at a given life cycle cost. This paper presents an approach for simultaneous optimization of the design and maintenance of multi-component systems. Here the design is characterized by four decision variables for each component (reliability level, maintainability level, redundancy level, and level of monitoring data). The maintenance is characterized by two decision variables (the dates of the maintenance stops and the maintenance operations to be performed on the system during these stops). The DFM model helps the designers choose technical solutions for the large-scale industrial products. Large-scale refers to the complex multi-component industrial systems and long life-cycle, such as trains, aircraft, etc. The method is based on a two-level hybrid algorithm for simultaneous optimization of design and maintenance, using genetic algorithms. The first level is to select a design solution for a given system that considers the life cycle cost and the reliability. The second level consists of determining a dynamic and optimal maintenance plan to be deployed for a design solution. This level is based on the Maintenance Free Operating Period (MFOP) concept, which takes into account the decision criteria such as, total reliability, maintenance cost and maintenance time. Depending on the life cycle duration, the desired availability, and the desired business model (sales or rental), this tool provides visibility of overall costs and optimal product architecture.

Keywords: availability, design for maintenance (DFM), dynamic maintenance, life cycle cost (LCC), maintenance free operating period (MFOP), simultaneous optimization

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Authors: Habib Akbarzadeh Bengar, Mohammad Asadi Kiadehi, Ali Rameeh

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The result of the past earthquakes has shown that insufficient amount of stirrups and brittle behavior of concrete lead to the shear and flexural failure in reinforced concrete (RC) members. In this paper, an analytical model proposed to predict the nonlinear behavior of RC and SFRC elements and frames. In this model, some important parameter such as shear effect, varying axial load, and longitudinal bar buckling are considered. The results of analytical model were verified with experimental tests. The results of verification have shown that the proposed analytical model can predict the nonlinear behavior of RC and SFRC members and also frames accurately. In addition, the results have shown that use of steel fibers increased bearing capacity and ductility of RC frame. Due to this enhancement in shear strength and ductility, insufficient amount of stirrups, which resulted in shear failure, can be offset with usage of the steel fibers. In addition to the steps taken, to analyze the effects of fibers percentages on the bearing capacity and ductility of frames parametric studies have been performed to investigate of these effects.

Keywords: nonlinear analysis, SFRC frame, shear failure, varying an axial load

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Authors: Tugba Bayoglu

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Aerodynamic parameter estimation is very crucial in missile design phase, since accurate high fidelity aerodynamic model is required for designing high performance and robust control system, developing high fidelity flight simulations and verification of computational and wind tunnel test results. However, in literature, there is not enough missile aerodynamic parameter identification study for three main reasons: (1) most air to air missiles cannot fly with constant speed, (2) missile flight test number and flight duration are much less than that of fixed wing aircraft, (3) variation of the missile aerodynamic parameters with respect to Mach number is higher than that of fixed wing aircraft. In addition to these challenges, identification of aerodynamic parameters for high wind angles by using classical estimation techniques brings another difficulty in the estimation process. The reason for this, most of the estimation techniques require employing polynomials or splines to model the behavior of the aerodynamics. However, for the missiles with a large variation of aerodynamic parameters with respect to flight variables, the order of the proposed model increases, which brings computational burden and complexity. Therefore, in this study, it is aimed to solve nonlinear aerodynamic parameter identification problem for a supersonic air to air missile by using Artificial Neural Networks. The method proposed will be tested by using simulated data which will be generated with a six degree of freedom missile model, involving a nonlinear aerodynamic database. The data will be corrupted by adding noise to the measurement model. Then, by using the flight variables and measurements, the parameters will be estimated. Finally, the prediction accuracy will be investigated.

Keywords: air to air missile, artificial neural networks, open loop simulation, parameter identification

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Ciro Moreno-Ramirez, Maria Tomas-Rodriguez, Simos A. Evangelou

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A motorcycle's front end links the front wheel to the motorcycle's chassis and has two main functions: the front wheel suspension and the vehicle steering. Up to this date, several suspension systems have been developed in order to achieve the best possible front end behavior, being the telescopic fork the most common one and already subjected to several years of study in terms of its kinematics, dynamics, stability and control. A motorcycle telescopic fork suspension model consists of a couple of outer tubes which contain the suspension components (coil springs and dampers) internally and two inner tubes which slide into the outer ones allowing the suspension travel. The outer tubes are attached to the frame through two triple trees which connect the front end to the main frame through the steering bearings and allow the front wheel to turn about the steering axis. This system keeps the front wheel's displacement in a straight line parallel to the steering axis. However, there exist alternative suspension designs that allow different trajectories of the front wheel with the suspension travel. In this contribution, the authors investigate an alternative front suspension system (Hossack suspension) and its influence on the motorcycle nonlinear dynamics to identify and reduce stability risks that a new suspension systems may introduce in the motorcycle dynamics. Based on an existing high-fidelity motorcycle mathematical model, the front end geometry is modified to accommodate a Hossack suspension system. It is characterized by a double wishbone design that varies the front end geometry on certain maneuverings and, consequently, the machine's behavior/response. It consists of a double wishbone structure directly attached to the chassis. In here, the kinematics of this system and its impact on the motorcycle performance/stability are analyzed and compared to the well known telescopic fork suspension system. The framework of this research is the mathematical modelling and numerical simulation. Full stability analyses are performed in order to understand how the motorcycle dynamics may be affected by the newly introduced front end design. This study is carried out by a combination of nonlinear dynamical simulation and root-loci methods. A modal analysis is performed in order to get a deeper understanding of the different modes of oscillation and how the Hossack suspension system affects them. The results show that different kinematic designs of a double wishbone suspension systems do not modify the general motorcycle's stability. The normal modes properties remain unaffected by the new geometrical configurations. However, these normal modes differ from one suspension system to the other. It is seen that the normal modes behaviour depends on various important dynamic parameters, such as the front frame flexibility, the steering damping coefficient and the centre of mass location.

Keywords: nonlinear mechanical systems, motorcycle dynamics, suspension systems, stability

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Zohreh Khojasteh-Ghamari, Takashi Irohara

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One of the efficient ways in supply chain risk management is avoiding the interruption in Supply Chain (SC) before it occurs. Although the majority of the organizations focus on their first-tier suppliers to avoid risk in the SC, studies show that in only 60 percent of the disruption cases the reason is first tier suppliers. In the 40 percent of the SC disruptions, the reason is downstream SC, which is the second tier and lower. Due to the increasing complexity and interrelation of modern supply chains, the SC elements have become difficult to trace. Moreover, studies show that there is a vital need to better understand the integration of risk and visibility, especially in the context of multiple objectives. In this study, we propose a multi-objective programming model to avoid disruption in SC. The objective of this study is evaluating the effect of downstream SCV on managing supply chain risk. We propose a multi-objective mathematical programming model with the objective functions of minimizing the total cost and maximizing the downstream supply chain visibility (SCV). The decision variable is supplier selection. We assume there are several manufacturers and several candidate suppliers. For each manufacturer, our model proposes the best suppliers with the lowest cost and maximum visibility in downstream supply chain. We examine the applicability of the model by numerical examples. We also define several scenarios for datasets and observe the tendency. The results show that minimum visibility in downstream SC is needed to have a safe SC network.

Keywords: downstream supply chain, optimization, supply chain risk, supply chain visibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Hamed Saremi, Suzan Taghavy, Seyed Mohammad Hanif Sanjari, Mostafa Kahali

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One of the challenges in manufacturing and service companies to provide a product or service is recognized Brand to consumers in target markets. They provide most of their processes under the same capacity. But the constant threat of devastating internal and external resources to prevent a rise Brands and more companies are recognizing the stages are bankrupt. This paper has tried to identify and analyze effective indicators of brand equity and focuses on indicators and presents a model of intelligent create a model to prevent possible damage. In this study, the identified indicators of brand equity are based on literature study and according to expert opinions, set of indicators By techniques DEMATEL Then to used Multi-Step Adaptive Neural-Fuzzy Inference system (ANFIS) to design a multi-stage intelligent system for assessment of brand equity.

Keywords: brand, cosmetic product, ANFIS, DEMATEL

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Authors: M. A. Tayfun, M. A. Alkhalidi

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The exact theoretical expression describing the probability distribution of nonlinear sea-surface elevations derived from the second-order narrowband model has a cumbersome form that requires numerical computations, not well-disposed to theoretical or practical applications. Here, the same narrowband model is re-examined to develop a simpler closed-form approximation suitable for theoretical and practical applications. The salient features of the approximate form are explored, and its relative validity is verified with comparisons to other readily available approximations, and oceanic data.

Keywords: ocean waves, probability distributions, second-order nonlinearities, skewness coefficient, wave steepness

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Authors: Wipassorn Vinicchayakul, Pichaya Supanakoon, Sathaporn Promwong

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A human’s hand localization is revised by using radar cross section (RCS) measurements with a minimum root mean square (RMS) error matching algorithm on a touchless keypad mock-up model. RCS and frequency transfer function measurements are carried out in an indoor environment on the frequency ranged from 3.0 to 11.0 GHz to cover federal communications commission (FCC) standards. The touchless keypad model is tested in two different distances between the hand and the keypad. The initial distance of 19.50 cm is identical to the heights of transmitting (Tx) and receiving (Rx) antennas, while the second distance is 29.50 cm from the keypad. Moreover, the effects of Rx angles relative to the hand of human factor are considered. The RCS input parameters are compared with power loss parameters at each frequency. From the results, the performance of the RCS input parameters with the second distance, 29.50 cm at 3 GHz is better than the others.

Keywords: radar cross section, fingerprint-based localization, minimum root mean square (RMS) error matching algorithm, touchless keypad model

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

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Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy strategy focuses mainly on generating and utilization of Renewable Energy (RE). The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources on the grid from solar and wind energy were only 8 % of the total energy produced. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the Energy PLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EPM analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EPM simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Hence, the model’s results are in line with the actual 2016 output. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EPM simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was dominant in all months except in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EPM indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that; if the excess power is utilized with a storage mechanism that can stabilize the grid system; as a result, the extra RE generated can be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming energy storage system to synchronize with RE potentials that can be generated from RE.

Keywords: renewable energy, storage, wind, energyplan

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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Authors: Girish Chavadappanavar

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The impact of climate on agriculture could result in problems with food security and may threaten the livelihood activities upon which much of the population depends. In the present study, the development of a statistical yield forecast model has been carried out for sugarcane production over Belagavi district, Karnataka using weather variables of crop growing season and past observed yield data for the period of 1971 to 2010. The study shows that this type of statistical yield forecast model could efficiently forecast yield 5 weeks and even 10 weeks in advance of the harvest for sugarcane within an acceptable limit of error. The performance of the model in predicting yields at the district level for sugarcane crops is found quite satisfactory for both validation (2007 and 2008) as well as forecasting (2009 and 2010).In addition to the above study, the climate variability of the area has also been studied, and hence, the data series was tested for Mann Kendall Rank Statistical Test. The maximum and minimum temperatures were found to be significant with opposite trends (decreasing trend in maximum and increasing in minimum temperature), while the other three are found in significant with different trends (rainfall and evening time relative humidity with increasing trend and morning time relative humidity with decreasing trend).

Keywords: climate impact, regression analysis, yield and forecast model, sugar models

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Authors: Carlos Riascos, Peter Thomson

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Real-time hybrid simulation (RTHS) is a modern cyber-physical technique used for the experimental evaluation of complex systems, that treats the system components with predictable behavior as a numerical substructure and the components that are difficult to model as an experimental substructure. Therefore it is an attractive method for evaluation of the response of civil structures under earthquake, wind and anthropic loads. Another practical application of RTHS is the evaluation of control systems, as these devices are often nonlinear and their characterization is an important step in the design of controllers with the desired performance. In this paper, the response of three-story shear frame controlled by a tuned liquid column damper (TLCD) and subject to base excitation is considered. Both passive and semi-active control strategies were implemented and are compared. While the passive TLCD achieved a reduction of 50% in the acceleration response of the main structure in comparison with the structure without control, the semi-active TLCD achieved a reduction of 70%, and was robust to variations in the dynamic properties of the main structure. In addition, a RTHS was implemented with the main structure modeled as a linear, time-invariant (LTI) system through a state space representation and the TLCD, with both control strategies, was evaluated on a shake table that reproduced the displacement of the virtual structure. Current assessment measures for RTHS were used to quantify the performance with parameters such as generalized amplitude, equivalent time delay between the target and measured displacement of the shake table, and energy error using the measured force, and prove that the RTHS described in this paper is an accurate method for the experimental evaluation of structural control systems.

Keywords: structural control, hybrid simulation, tuned liquid column damper, semi-active sontrol strategy

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Authors: Eunkyo Kang, Jihye Lee, Jiyeon Choo

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Background: Pediatric palliative care has been increasing, and the number of studies has focused on the age at which pediatric patient can be notified their terminal illness, pediatric advanced care planning (ACP) and palliative care. However, there is a lack of research on health professionals’ perception. Aim: We aimed to investigate the perceptions of healthcare professionals about appropriate age disclosing terminal illness, awareness of ACP, and the relationship between ACP knowledge and the preference for palliative care for children. Methods: We administered nationwide questionnaires to 928 physicians from the 12 hospitals and the Korean Medical Association and 1,241 individuals of the general Korean population. We asked about the age at which the pediatric patients could be notified of their terminal illness, by 4 groups; 4 years old or older, 12 years old or older, 15 years old or older, or not. In addition, we surveyed the questionnaires about the knowledge of ACP of the medical staff, the preference of the pediatric hospice palliative care, aggressive treatment, and life-sustaining treatment preference. Results: In the appropriate age disclosing terminal illness, there were more respondents in the physicians than in the general population who thought that it was possible even at a younger age. Palliative care preference in pediatric patients who were expected to expire within months was higher when health care professionals had knowledge of ACPs compared to those without knowledge. The same results were obtained when deaths were expected within weeks or days. The age of the terminal status notification, the health care professionals who thought to be available at a lower age have a higher preference for palliative care and has less preference for aggressive treatment and life-sustaining treatment. Conclusion: Despite the importance of pediatric palliative care, our study confirmed that there is a difference in the preference of the health care professionals for pediatric palliative care according to the ACP knowledge of the medical staff or the appropriate age disclosing terminal illness. Future research should focus on strategies for inducing changes in perceptions of health care professionals and identifying other obstacles for the pediatric palliative care.

Keywords: pediatric palliative care, disclosing terminal illness, palliative care, advanced care planning

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Authors: Cecília M. Antão, Paulo Jorge Nogueira

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Breast cancer (BC) is the first cause of cancer mortality among Portuguese women. This retrospective observational study aimed at identifying comorbidities associated with BC female patients admitted to Portuguese public hospitals (2010-2018), investigating the effect of comorbidities on BC mortality rate, and building a predictive model using logistic regression. Results showed that the BC mortality in Portugal decreased in this period and reached 4.37% in 2018. Adjusted odds ratio indicated that secondary malignant neoplasms of liver, of bone and bone marrow, congestive heart failure, and diabetes were associated with an increased chance of dying from breast cancer. Although the Lisbon district (the most populated area) accounted for the largest percentage of BC patients, the logistic regression model showed that, besides patient’s age, being resident in Bragança, Castelo Branco, or Porto districts was directly associated with an increase of the mortality rate.

Keywords: breast cancer, comorbidities, logistic regression, adjusted odds ratio

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Authors: Majid Galoie, Khodadad Safavi, Abdolreza Karami Nejad, Reza Roshan

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Scour downstream of a flip bucket in a plunge pool is caused by impingement of water jet force. In order to reduce this force and consequently reduce scour hole depth, flip buckets may equip by dents. The minimum scour hole depth might be occurred by optimization of dents (number, shape, placement) on flip buckets. In this study, a comprehensive physical model has been developed and various options for dents have been investigated. The experimental data for each dent option such as scour hole depth, angle of impingement jet, piezometric pressure in tail-water and jet trajectory have been measured for various discharges. Finally, the best option can be found by analysis of the experimental results which has been expressed in this paper.

Keywords: scouring process, plunge pool, scour hole depth, physical model, flip bucket

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Authors: Haifeng Wang, Haili Zhang

Abstract:

Most movie recommendation systems have been developed for customers to find items of interest. This work introduces a predictive model usable by small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) who are in need of a data-based and analytical approach to stock proper movies for local audiences and retain more customers. We used classification models to extract features from thousands of customers’ demographic, behavioral and social information to predict their movie genre preference. In the implementation, a Gaussian kernel support vector machine (SVM) classification model and a logistic regression model were established to extract features from sample data and their test error-in-sample were compared. Comparison of error-out-sample was also made under different Vapnik–Chervonenkis (VC) dimensions in the machine learning algorithm to find and prevent overfitting. Gaussian kernel SVM prediction model can correctly predict movie genre preferences in 85% of positive cases. The accuracy of the algorithm increased to 93% with a smaller VC dimension and less overfitting. These findings advance our understanding of how to use machine learning approach to predict customers’ preferences with a small data set and design prediction tools for these enterprises.

Keywords: computational social science, movie preference, machine learning, SVM

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Authors: Muhammad Abu-Khaizaran, Ahmad Faza’, Tariq Othman, Yahia Yousef

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This paper presents a study to provide sufficient and reliable information about constructing a Photovoltaic energy profile of the Birzeit University campus (BZU) based on the weather forecast. The developed Photovoltaic energy profile helps to predict the energy yield of the Photovoltaic systems based on the weather forecast and hence helps planning energy production and consumption. Two models will be developed in this paper; a Clear Sky Irradiance model and a Cloud-Cover Radiation model to predict the irradiance for a clear sky day and a cloudy day, respectively. The adopted procedure for developing such models takes into consideration two levels of abstraction. First, irradiance and weather data were acquired by a sensory (measurement) system installed on the rooftop of the Information Technology College building at Birzeit University campus. Second, power readings of a fully operational 51kW commercial Photovoltaic system installed in the University at the rooftop of the adjacent College of Pharmacy-Nursing and Health Professions building are used to validate the output of a simulation model and to help refine its structure. Based on a comparison between a mathematical model, which calculates Clear Sky Irradiance for the University location and two sets of accumulated measured data, it is found that the simulation system offers an accurate resemblance to the installed PV power station on clear sky days. However, these comparisons show a divergence between the expected energy yield and actual energy yield in extreme weather conditions, including clouding and soiling effects. Therefore, a more accurate prediction model for irradiance that takes into consideration weather factors, such as relative humidity and cloudiness, which affect irradiance, was developed; Cloud-Cover Radiation Model (CRM). The equivalent mathematical formulas implement corrections to provide more accurate inputs to the simulation system. The results of the CRM show a very good match with the actual measured irradiance during a cloudy day. The developed Photovoltaic profile helps in predicting the output energy yield of the Photovoltaic system installed at the University campus based on the predicted weather conditions. The simulation and practical results for both models are in a very good match.

Keywords: clear-sky irradiance model, cloud-cover radiation model, photovoltaic, weather forecast

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Authors: Palaniraj Rama Raj, Himeesh Kumar, Paul Adler

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Purpose: To investigate the effect of ultrasound energy, expressed as cumulative dissipated energy (CDE), on short and long-term outcomes after uncomplicated cataract surgery by phacoemulsification. Methods: In this single-surgeon, two-center retrospective study, non-glaucomatous participants who underwent uncomplicated cataract surgery were investigated. Best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) and intraocular pressure (IOP) were measured at 3 separate time points: pre-operative, Day 1 and ≥1 month. Anterior chamber (AC) inflammation and corneal odema (CO) were assessed at 2 separate time points: Pre-operative and Day 1. Short-term changes (Day 1) in BCVA, IOP, AC and CO and long-term changes (≥1 month) in BCVA and IOP were evaluated as a function of CDE using a multivariate multiple linear regression model, adjusting for age, gender, cataract type and grade, preoperative IOP, preoperative BCVA and duration of long-term follow-up. Results: 110 eyes from 97 non-glaucomatous participants were analysed. 60 (54.55%) were female and 50 (45.45%) were male. The mean (±SD) age was 73.40 (±10.96) years. Higher CDE counts were strongly associated with higher grades of sclerotic nuclear cataracts (p <0.001) and posterior subcapsular cataracts (p <0.036). There was no significant association between CDE counts and cortical cataracts. CDE counts also had a positive correlation with Day 1 CO (p <0.001). There was no correlation between CDE counts and Day 1 AC inflammation. Short-term and long-term changes in post-operative IOP did not demonstrate significant associations with CDE counts (all p >0.05). Though there was no significant correlation between CDE counts and short-term changes in BCVA, higher CDE counts were strongly associated with greater improvements in long-term BCVA (p = 0.011). Conclusion: Though higher CDE counts were strongly associated with higher grades of Day 1 postoperative CO, there appeared to be no detriment to long-term BCVA. Correspondingly, the strong positive correlation between CDE counts and long-term BCVA was likely reflective of the greater severity of underlying cataract type and grade. CDE counts were not associated with short-term or long-term postoperative changes in IOP.

Keywords: cataract surgery, phacoemulsification, cumulative dissipated energy, CDE, surgical outcomes

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Authors: Taki Eddine Seghier, Mohd Hamdan Ahmad, Yaik-Wah Lim, Samuel Opeyemi Williams

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The assessment of building sustainability to achieve a specific green benchmark and the preparation of the required documents in order to receive a green building certification, both are considered as major challenging tasks for green building design team. However, this labor and time-consuming process can take advantage of the available Building Information Modeling (BIM) features such as material take-off and scheduling. Furthermore, the workflow can be automated in order to track potentially achievable credit points and provide rating feedback for several design options by using integrated Visual Programing (VP) to handle the stored parameters within the BIM model. Hence, this study proposes a BIM-based tool that uses Green Building Index (GBI) rating system requirements as a unique input case to evaluate the building sustainability in the design stage of the building project life cycle. The tool covers two key models for data extraction, firstly, a model for data extraction, calculation and the classification of achievable credit points in a green template, secondly, a model for the generation of the required documents for green building certification. The tool was validated on a BIM model of residential building and it serves as proof of concept that building sustainability assessment of GBI certification can be automatically evaluated and documented through BIM.

Keywords: green building rating system, GBRS, building information modeling, BIM, visual programming, VP, sustainability assessment

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Authors: Helena Macedo, Larissa Tomaz, Levi Guimarães, Luís Cerqueira-Pinto, José Dinis-Carvalho

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In the context of retail logistics, the pursuit of operational efficiency and cost optimization involves a rigorous distinction between value-added and non-value-added activities. In today's competitive market, optimizing efficiency and reducing operational costs are paramount for retail businesses. This research paper focuses on the development of a classification model adapted to the retail sector, specifically examining internal logistics processes. Based on a comprehensive analysis conducted in a retail supermarket located in the north of Portugal, which covered various aspects of internal retail logistics, this study questions the concept of value and the definition of wastes traditionally applied in a manufacturing context and proposes a new way to assess activities in the context of internal logistics. This study combines quantitative data analysis with qualitative evaluations. The proposed classification model offers a systematic approach to categorize operations within the retail logistics chain, providing actionable insights for decision-makers to streamline processes, enhance productivity, and allocate resources more effectively. This model contributes not only to academic discourse but also serves as a practical tool for retail businesses, aiding in the enhancement of their internal logistics dynamics.

Keywords: lean retail, lean logisitcs, retail logistics, value-added and non-value-added

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Authors: Zina Ghiloufi, Tahar Khir

Abstract:

A transient three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model is developed to determine the velocity and temperature distribution in different positions cold room during pre-cooling of dates. The turbulence model used is the k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) with the standard wall function, the air. The numerical results obtained show that cooling rate is not uniform inside the room; the product at the medium of room has a slower cooling rate. This cooling heterogeneity has a large effect on the energy consumption during cold storage.

Keywords: CFD, cold room, cooling rate, dDates, numerical simulation, k-ω (SST)

Procedia PDF Downloads 230