Search results for: regression determination

Authors: Asma Alzahrani, Elizabeth Stojanovski

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This study investigated factors that influence mathematics achievement based on a sample of ninth-grade students (N  =  21,444) from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS09). Key aspects studied included efficacy in mathematics, interest and enjoyment of mathematics, identity with mathematics and future utility beliefs and how these influence mathematics achievement. The predictability of mathematics achievement based on these factors was assessed using correlation coefficients and multiple linear regression. Spearman rank correlations and multiple regression analyses indicated positive and statistically significant relationships between the explanatory variables: mathematics efficacy, identity with mathematics, interest in and future utility beliefs with the response variable, achievement in mathematics.

Keywords: Mathematics achievement, math efficacy, mathematics interest, factors influence

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Authors: Shlomit Hon-Snir, Sharon Teitler-Regev, Anabel Lifszyc Friedlander

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Tourism, one of the world's largest and fastest growing industries, exerts a major economic influence. The number of international tourists is growing every year, and the relative portion of independent (FIT) tourists is growing as well. The characteristics of independent tourists differ from those of tourists who travel in organized trips. The purpose of the research is to identify the factors that affect the individual tourist's expenses in Israel: total expenses, expenses per day, expenses per tourist, expenses per day per tourist, accommodation expenses, dining expenses and transportation expenses. Most of the research analyzed the total expenses using OLS regression. The determinants influencing expenses were divided into four groups: budget constraints, socio-demographic data, psychological characteristics and travel-related characteristics. Since the effect of each variable may change over different levels of total expenses the quantile regression (QR) theory will be applied. The current research will use data collected by the Israeli Ministry of Tourism in 2015 from individual independent tourists at the end of their visit to Israel. Preliminary results show that: At lower levels of expense, only income has a (positive) effect on total expenses, while at higher levels of expense, both income and length of stay have (positive) effects. -The effect of income on total expenses is higher for higher levels of expenses than for lower level of expenses. -The number of sites visited during the trip has a (negative) effect on tourist accommodation expenses only for tourists with a high level of total expenses. Due to the increasing share of independent tourism in Israel and around the world and due to the importance of tourism to Israel, it is very important to understand the factors that influence the expenses and behavior of independent tourists. Understanding the factors that affect independent tourists' expenses in Israel can help Israeli policymakers in their promotional efforts to attract tourism to Israel.

Keywords: independent tourist, quantile regression theory, tourism expenses, tourism

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Authors: Rovina Kobun, Shafiquzzaman Siddiquee

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A novel and simple electrochemical sensor for the determination of melamine was developed based on modified gold electrode (AuE) with chitosan (CHIT) nanocomposite membrane, zinc oxide nanoparticles (ZnONPs) and ionic liquids ([EMIM][Otf]) to enhance the potential current response of melamine. Cyclic voltammetry and differential pulse voltammetry were used to investigate the electrochemical behaviour between melamine and modified AuE in the presence of methylene blue as a redox indicator. The experimental results indicated that the interaction of melamine with CHIT/ZnONPs/([EMIM][Otf])/AuE were based on the strong interaction of hydrogen bonds. The morphological characterization of modified AuE was observed under scanning electron microscope. Under optimal conditions, the current signal was directly proportional to the melamine concentration ranging from 9.6 x 10-5 to 9.6 x 10-11 M, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9656. The detection limit was 9.6 x 10-12 M. Finally, the proposed method was successfully applied and displayed an excellent sensitivity in the determination of melamine in milk samples.

Keywords: melamine, gold electrode, zinc oxide nanoparticles, cyclic voltammetries, differential pulse voltammetries

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Authors: S.K. Bhandari, E. Veneklaas, L. McCaw, R. Mazanec, K. Whitford, M. Renton

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Eucalyptus marginata, E. diversicolor and Corymbia calophylla form widespread forests in south-west Western Australia (SWWA). These forests have economic and ecological importance, and therefore, tree growth and sustainable management are of high priority. This paper aimed to analyse and model the growth of these species at both stand and individual levels, but this presentation will focus on predicting the growth of E. Marginata at the individual tree level. More specifically, the study wanted to investigate how well individual E. marginata tree growth could be predicted by considering the diameter and height of the tree at the start of the growth period, and whether this prediction could be improved by also accounting for the competition from neighbouring trees in different ways. The study also wanted to investigate how many neighbouring trees or what neighbourhood distance needed to be considered when accounting for competition. To achieve this aim, the Pearson correlation coefficient was examined among competition indices (CIs), between CIs and dbh growth, and selected the competition index that can best predict the diameter growth of individual trees of E. marginata forest managed under different thinning regimes at Inglehope in SWWA. Furthermore, individual tree growth models were developed using simple linear regression, multiple linear regression, and linear mixed effect modelling approaches. Individual tree growth models were developed for thinned and unthinned stand separately. The developed models were validated using two approaches. In the first approach, models were validated using a subset of data that was not used in model fitting. In the second approach, the model of the one growth period was validated with the data of another growth period. Tree size (diameter and height) was a significant predictor of growth. This prediction was improved when the competition was included in the model. The fit statistic (coefficient of determination) of the model ranged from 0.31 to 0.68. The model with spatial competition indices validated as being more accurate than with non-spatial indices. The model prediction can be optimized if 10 to 15 competitors (by number) or competitors within ~10 m (by distance) from the base of the subject tree are included in the model, which can reduce the time and cost of collecting the information about the competitors. As competition from neighbours was a significant predictor with a negative effect on growth, it is recommended including neighbourhood competition when predicting growth and considering thinning treatments to minimize the effect of competition on growth. These model approaches are likely to be useful tools for the conservations and sustainable management of forests of E. marginata in SWWA. As a next step in optimizing the number and distance of competitors, further studies in larger size plots and with a larger number of plots than those used in the present study are recommended.

Keywords: competition, growth, model, thinning

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Authors: Chongwain G. Mbzighaa, Christopher M. Agyingi, Josepha-Forba-Tendo

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Background and aim: Sedimentological, geochemical and petrographic studies were carried out on carbonate-bearing argillites outcropping at the southeastern flank of Mount Cameroon (Likomba) to determine the lithofacies and their associations, major element geochemistry and mineralogy. Methods: Major elements of the rocks were analyzed using XRF technique. Thermal analysis and thin section studies were carried out accompanied with the determination of insoluble components of the carbonates. Results: The carbonates are classed as biomicrites with siderite being the major carbonate mineral. Clay, quartz and pyrite constitute the major insoluble components of these rocks. Geochemical results depict a broad variation in their concentrations with silica and iron showing the highest concentrations and sodium and manganese with the least concentrations. Two factors were revealed with the following elemental associations, Fe2O3-MgO-Mn2O3 (72.56 %) and TiO2-SiO2-Al2O3-K2O (23.20%) indicating both Fe-enrichment, the subsequent formation of the siderite and the contribution of the sediments to the formation of these rocks. Conclusion: The rocks consist of cyclic iron-rich carbonates alternating with sideritic-shales and might have been formed as a result of variations in the sea conditions as well as variation in sediment influx resulting from transgression and regression sequences occurring in a shallow to slightly deep marine environments.

Keywords: sedimentology, geochemistry, petrography, iron carbonates, Likomba

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Authors: Cromwell F. Gopo, Joy L. Picar

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This study aimed to predict the employability of senior high school graduates for S.Y. 2018- 2019 in the Davao del Norte Division through quantitative research design using the descriptive status and predictive approaches among the indicated parameters, namely gender, school type, academics, academic award recipient, skills, values, and strand. The respondents of the study were the 33 secondary schools offering senior high school programs identified through simple random sampling, which resulted in 1,530 cases of graduates’ secondary data, which were analyzed using frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, and binary logistic regression. Results showed that the majority of the senior high school graduates who come from large schools were females. Further, less than half of these graduates received any academic award in any semester. In general, the graduates’ performance in academics, skills, and values were proficient. Moreover, less than half of the graduates were not employed. Then, those who were employed were either contractual, casual, or part-time workers dominated by GAS graduates. Further, the predictors of employability were gender and the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) strand, while the remaining variables did not add significantly to the model. The null hypothesis had been rejected as the coefficients of the predictors in the binary logistic regression equation did not take the value of 0. After utilizing the model, it was concluded that Technical-Vocational-Livelihood (TVL) graduates except ICT had greater estimates of employability.

Keywords: employability, senior high school graduates, Davao del Norte, Philippines

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Authors: Khaled M. Mohamed

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Background: P-Phenylenediamine (PPD) is used in the manufacture of hair dyes and skin decoration. In some developing countries, suicidal, homicidal and accidental cases by PPD were recorded. In this work, a sensitive LC-MS/MS method for determination of PPD and its metabolites N-acetyl-p-phenylenediamine (MAPPD) and N,N-diacetyl-p-phenylenediamine (DAPPD) in human urine has been developed and validated. Methods: PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD were extracted from urine by methylene chloride at alkaline pH. Acetanilide was used as internal standard (IS). The analytes and IS were separated on an Eclipse XDB- C18 column (150 X 4.6 mm, 5 µm) using a mobile phase of acetonitrile-1% formic acid in gradient elution. Detection was performed by LC-MS/MS using electrospray positive ionization under multiple reaction-monitoring mode. The transition ions m/z 109 → 92, m/z 151 → 92, m/z 193 → 92, and m/z 136 → 77 were selected for the quantification of PPD, MAPPD, DAPPD, and IS, respectively. Results: Calibration curves were linear in the range 10–2000 ng/mL for all analytes. The mean recoveries for PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD were 57.62, 74.19 and 50.99%, respectively. Intra-assay and inter-assay imprecisions were within 1.58–9.52% and 5.43–9.45% respectively for PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD. Inter-assay accuracies were within -7.43 and 7.36 for all compounds. PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD were stable in urine at –20 degrees for 24 hours. Conclusions: The method was successfully applied to the analysis of PPD, MAPPD and DAPPD in urine samples collected from suicidal cases.

Keywords: p-Phenylenediamine, metabolites, urine, LC-MS/MS, validation

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Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

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Authors: Dražen Cvitanić, Biljana Maljković

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This paper presents models for predicting operating speeds on tangent sections of two-lane rural roads developed on continuous speed data. The data corresponds to 20 drivers of different ages and driving experiences, driving their own cars along an 18 km long section of a state road. The data were first used for determination of maximum operating speeds on tangents and their comparison with speeds in the middle of tangents i.e. speed data used in most of operating speed studies. Analysis of continuous speed data indicated that the spot speed data are not reliable indicators of relevant speeds. After that, operating speed models for tangent sections were developed. There was no significant difference between models developed using speed data in the middle of tangent sections and models developed using maximum operating speeds on tangent sections. All developed models have higher coefficient of determination then models developed on spot speed data. Thus, it can be concluded that the method of measuring has more significant impact on the quality of operating speed model than the location of measurement.

Keywords: operating speed, continuous speed data, tangent sections, spot speed, consistency

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Authors: Yu. I. Pigolkin, M. A. Garcia Corro

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Age determination of unknown dead bodies in forensic personal identification is a complicated process which involves the application of numerous methods and techniques. Skeletal remains are less exposed to influences of environmental factors. In order to enhance the accuracy of forensic age estimation additional properties of bones correlating with age are required to be revealed. Material and Methods: Dimensional examination of the sella turcica was carried out on cadavers with the cranium opened by a circular vibrating saw. The sample consisted of a total of 90 Russian subjects, ranging in age from two months and 87 years. Results: The tendency of dimensional variations throughout life was detected. There were no observed gender differences in the morphometry of the sella turcica. The shared use of the sella turcica depth and length values revealed the possibility to categorize an examined sample in a certain age period. Conclusions: Based on the results of existing methods of age determination, the morphometry of the sella turcica can be an additional characteristic, amplifying the received values, and accordingly, increasing the accuracy of forensic biological age diagnosis.

Keywords: age–related changes in bone structures, forensic personal identification, sella turcica morphometry, body identification

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Authors: Joseph Clement Akan, Lami Jafiya, Zaynab Muhammad Chellube, Zakari Mohammed, Fanna Inna Abdulrahman

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Five vegetables (spinach, lettuce, cabbage, tomato, and onion) were freshly harvested from the Alau Dam and Gongulong agricultural areas for the determination of some organochlorine pesticide residues (o, p-DDE, p,p’-DDD, o,p’-DDD, p,p’-DDT, α-BHC, γ-BHC, metoxichlor, lindane, endosulfan dieldrin, and aldrin.) Soil samples were also collected at different depths for the determination of the above pesticides. Samples collection and preparation were conducted using standard procedures. The concentrations of all the pesticides in the soil and vegetable samples were determined using GC/MS SHIMADZU (GC-17A) equipped with electron capture detector (ECD). The highest concentration was that of p,p’-DDD (132.4±13.45µg/g) which was observed in the leaf of cabbage, while the lowest concentration was that of p,p’-DDT (2.34µg/g) was observed in the root of spinach. Similar trends were observed at the Gongulong agricultural area, with p,p’-DDD having the highest concentration of 153.23µg/g in the leaf of cabbage, while the lowest concentration was that of p,p’-DDT (12.45µg/g) which was observed in the root of spinach. α-BHC, γ-BHC, Methoxychlor, and lindane were detected in all the vegetable samples studied. The concentrations of all the pesticides in the soil samples were observed to be higher at a depth of 21-30cm, while the lowest concentrations were observed at a depth of 0-10cm. The concentrations of all the pesticides in the vegetables and soil samples from the two agricultural sites were observed to be at alarming levels, much higher than the maximum residue limits (MRLs) and acceptable daily intake values (ADIs) .The levels of the pesticides observed in the vegetables and soil samples investigated, are of such a magnitude that calls for special attention and laws to regulate the use and circulation of such chemicals. Routine monitoring of pesticide residues in these study areas is necessary for the prevention, control and reduction of environmental pollution, so as to minimize health risks.

Keywords: Alau Dam, gongulong, organochlorine, pesticide residues, soil, vegetables

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Authors: Zunaidah Ab Hasan, Azhana Othman, Abd Halim Mohd Noor, Nor Shahrina Mohd Rafien

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Zakat is a portion of wealth contributed from financially able Muslims to be distributed to predetermine recipients; main among them are the poor and the needy. Distribution of the zakat fund is given with the objective to lift the recipients from poverty. Due to the multidimensional and multifaceted nature of poverty, it is imperative that the causes of poverty are properly identified for assistance given by zakat authorities reached the intended target. Despite, various studies undertaken to identify the poor correctly, there are reports of the poor not receiving the adequate assistance required from zakat. Thus, this study examines the determinants of poverty among applicants for zakat assistance distributed by the State Islamic Religious Council in Malacca (SIRCM). Malacca is a state in Malaysia. The respondents were based on the list of names of new zakat applicants for the month of April and May 2014 provided by SIRCM. A binary logistic regression was estimated based on this data with either zakat applications is rejected or accepted as the dependent variable and set of demographic variables and health as the explanatory variables. Overall, the logistic model successfully predicted factors of acceptance of zakat applications. Three independent variables namely gender, age; size of households and health significantly explain the likelihood of a successful zakat application. Among others, the finding suggests the importance of focusing on providing education opportunity in helping the poor.

Keywords: logistic regression, zakat distribution, status of zakat applications, poverty, education

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Authors: Danica Maljkovic, Igor Balen, Bojana Dalbelo Basic

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Following the regulation of EU Directive on Energy Efficiency, specifically Article 9, individual metering in district heating systems has to be introduced by the end of 2016. These directions have been implemented in member state’s legal framework, Croatia is one of these states. The directive allows installation of both heat metering devices and heat cost allocators. Mainly due to bad communication and PR, the general public false image was created that the heat cost allocators are devices that save energy. Although this notion is wrong, the aim of this work is to develop a model that would precisely express the influence of installation heat cost allocators on potential energy savings in each unit within multifamily buildings. At the same time, in recent years, a science of machine learning has gain larger application in various fields, as it is proven to give good results in cases where large amounts of data are to be processed with an aim to recognize a pattern and correlation of each of the relevant parameter as well as in the cases where the problem is too complex for a human intelligence to solve. A special method of machine learning, decision tree method, has proven an accuracy of over 92% in prediction general building consumption. In this paper, a machine learning algorithms will be used to isolate the sole impact of installation of heat cost allocators on a single building in multifamily houses connected to district heating systems. Special emphasises will be given regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method.

Keywords: district heating, heat cost allocator, energy efficiency, machine learning, decision tree model, regression analysis, logistic regression, support vector machines, decision trees and random forest method

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Authors: Yildiz Stella Dak, Jale Tezcan

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Ground motion models that relate a strong motion parameter of interest to a set of predictive seismological variables describing the earthquake source, the propagation path of the seismic wave, and the local site conditions constitute a critical component of seismic hazard analyses. When a sufficient number of strong motion records are available, ground motion relations are developed using statistical analysis of the recorded ground motion data. In regions lacking a sufficient number of recordings, a synthetic database is developed using stochastic, theoretical or hybrid approaches. Regardless of the manner the database was developed, ground motion relations are developed using regression analysis. Development of a ground motion relation is a challenging process which inevitably requires the modeler to make subjective decisions regarding the inclusion criteria of the recordings, the functional form of the model and the set of seismological variables to be included in the model. Because these decisions are critically important to the validity and the applicability of the model, there is a continuous interest on procedures that will facilitate the development of ground motion models. This paper proposes the use of the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) in selecting the set predictive seismological variables to be used in developing a ground motion relation. The LASSO can be described as a penalized regression technique with a built-in capability of variable selection. Similar to the ridge regression, the LASSO is based on the idea of shrinking the regression coefficients to reduce the variance of the model. Unlike ridge regression, where the coefficients are shrunk but never set equal to zero, the LASSO sets some of the coefficients exactly to zero, effectively performing variable selection. Given a set of candidate input variables and the output variable of interest, LASSO allows ranking the input variables in terms of their relative importance, thereby facilitating the selection of the set of variables to be included in the model. Because the risk of overfitting increases as the ratio of the number of predictors to the number of recordings increases, selection of a compact set of variables is important in cases where a small number of recordings are available. In addition, identification of a small set of variables can improve the interpretability of the resulting model, especially when there is a large number of candidate predictors. A practical application of the proposed approach is presented, using more than 600 recordings from the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) database, where the effect of a set of seismological predictors on the 5% damped maximum direction spectral acceleration is investigated. The set of candidate predictors considered are Magnitude, Rrup, Vs30. Using LASSO, the relative importance of the candidate predictors has been ranked. Regression models with increasing levels of complexity were constructed using one, two, three, and four best predictors, and the models’ ability to explain the observed variance in the target variable have been compared. The bias-variance trade-off in the context of model selection is discussed.

Keywords: ground motion modeling, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, penalized regression, variable selection

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Authors: Marius Gavrilescu, Sabina-Adriana Floria, Florin Leon, Silvia Curteanu, Costel Anton

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Natural sciences provide a wide range of experimental data whose related problems require study and modeling beyond the capabilities of conventional methodologies. Such problems have solution spaces whose complexity and high dimensionality require correspondingly complex regression methods for proper characterization. In this context, we propose an optimization method which consists in a hybrid dual optimizer setup: a global optimizer based on a modified variant of the popular Imperialist Competitive Algorithm (ICA), and a local optimizer based on a gradient descent approach. The ICA is modified such that intermediate solution populations are more quickly and efficiently pruned of low-fitness individuals by appropriately altering the assimilation, revolution and competition phases, which, combined with an initialization strategy based on low-discrepancy sampling, allows for a more effective exploration of the corresponding solution space. Subsequently, gradient-based optimization is used locally to seek the optimal solution in the neighborhoods of the solutions found through the modified ICA. We use this combined approach to find the optimal configuration and weights of a fully-connected neural network, resulting in regression models used to characterize the process of obtained bricks using silicon-based materials. Installations in the raw ceramics industry, i.e., bricks, are characterized by significant energy consumption and large quantities of emissions. Thus, the purpose of our approach is to determine by simulation the working conditions, including the manufacturing mix recipe with the addition of different materials, to minimize the emissions represented by CO and CH4. Our approach determines regression models which perform significantly better than those found using the traditional ICA for the aforementioned problem, resulting in better convergence and a substantially lower error.

Keywords: optimization, biologically inspired algorithm, regression models, bricks, emissions

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Authors: Kehinde Peter Oyeduntan, Kayode Oshinubi

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The west African ports have been experiencing large inflow and outflow of containerized cargo in the last decades, and this has created a quest amongst the countries to attain the status of hub port for the sub-region. This study analyzed the relationship between the container throughput and Gross Domestic Products (GDP) of nine west African countries, using Simple Linear Regression (SLR), Polynomial Regression Model (PRM) and Support Vector Machines (SVM) with a time series of 20 years. The results showed that there exists a high correlation between the GDP and container throughput. The model also predicted the container throughput in west Africa for the next 20 years. The findings and recommendations presented in this research will guide policy makers and help improve the management of container ports and terminals in west Africa, thereby boosting the economy.

Keywords: container, ports, terminals, throughput

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Authors: Z. Khoshnood, L. Khoshnood

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Pesticides and drugs used in agriculture and veterinary medicine may end up in aquatic environments and bioaccumulate in the food chain, thus causing serious problems for fauna and human health. For determination of the toxic effects of atrazine herbicide on Caspian kutum, Rutilus frisii kutum larvae, the 96-h LC50 of atrazine was measured for newly hatched larvae as 18.53 ppm. Toxicity of atrazine herbicide on Caspian kutum larvae was investigated using concentrations: 9.25 ppm, 4.62 ppm and 2.31 ppm for 7 days. Comparison of the length, weight, and condition factor showed that no significant differences between atrazine exposed and control groups. The concentration of Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+ and Cl- in whole body of larvae in control and atrazine exposure groups were measured and the results showed that concentrations of all these ions is higher in atrazine exposure group than control group. It is obvious from this study that atrazine negatively affects osmoregulation process and changes ion compositions of the body even at sublethal concentration and acute exposure but have no effects on growth parameters of the body.

Keywords: atrazine, Caspian Kutum, acute toxicity, body ions, LC50

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Authors: Adam Bownik, Małgorzata Adamczuk, Barbara Pawlik-Skowrońska

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Certain strains of cyanobacteria, microorganisms forming water blooms, produce toxic secondary metabolites. Although various effects of cyanotoxins in aquatic animals are known, little data can be found on the influence of some cyanobacterial oligopeptides beyond microcystins. The aim of the present study was to determine the toxicity of novel pure cyanobacterial oligopeptides: microginin FR-1 (MGFR1) and anabaenopeptin-A (ANA-A) on a transparent model rotifer Brachionus calyciflorus with the use of fluorescent double staining with Hoechst 34580 and propidium iodide. The obtained results showed that both studied oligopeptides decreased the fluorescence intensity of animals stained with Hoechst 34580 in a concentration-dependent manner. On the other hand, a concentration-dependent increase of propidium iodide fluorescence was noted in the exposed rotifers. The results suggest that MGFR-1 and ANA-A should be considered as a potent toxic agent to freshwater rotifers, and fluorescent staining with Hoechst and propidium iodide may be a valuable tool for determination of toxicity of cyanobacterial oligopeptides in rotifers.

Keywords: cyanobacteria, brachionus, oligopeptides, fluorescent staining, hoechst, propidium iodide

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Authors: Abdul Haris Setiawan

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Teachers empowerment is one of the important factors considered to contribute significantly to the achievement of the national education goals. This study was conducted to determine the influence on the vocational teachers empowerment toward the performance of the vocational high schools based on the Education National Standards of Indonesia. The population of the study was all vocational teachers at the State Vocational High schools in Surakarta, Central Java Province, Indonesia. The sampling technique used proportional random sampling technique. This study used a quantitative descriptive statistical analysis techniques. The data was collected using questionnaires. The data has been collected and then tested using analysis requirements test. Having tested using the requirements analysis and then the data processed using regression analysis between the independent and dependent variables to determine the effect and the regression equation. The results of the study found that the level of vocational high schools’ performance based on the Education National Standards of Indonesia was 74.29%, including in the high category; the level of vocational teachers empowerment was 76.20%, including in the high category; there was a positive influence of vocational teachers empowerment toward the vocational high schools’ performance based on the Education National Standards of Indonesia with a correlation coefficient of 0,886, and a contribution of 78.50% with the regression equation Y = 79.431 +0.534 X.

Keywords: vocational teachers, empowerment, vocational high school, the education national standards

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Authors: İsmail İnce

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The aim of this study is to determine index and mechanical properties of pyroclastic rock in a practical way by means of electrical resistivity method. For this purpose, electrical resistivity, uniaxial compressive strength, point load strength, P-wave velocity, density and porosity values of 10 different pyroclastic rocks were measured in the laboratory. A simple regression analysis was made among the index-mechanical properties of the samples compatible with electrical resistivity values. A strong exponentially relation was found between index-mechanical properties and electrical resistivity values. The electrical resistivity method can be used to assess the engineering properties of the rock from which it is difficult to obtain regular shaped samples as a non-destructive method.

Keywords: electrical resistivity, index-mechanical properties, pyroclastic rocks, regression analysis

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Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: Sadixa Sanjel, Ahmed Sadek, Naseef Mansoor, Zelalem Denekew

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Collegiate ice hockey (NCAA) sports analytics is different from the national level hockey (NHL). We apply and compare multiple machine learning models such as Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Neural Networks to predict the win ratio for a team based on their statistics. Data exploration helps determine which statistics are most useful in increasing the win ratio, which would be beneficial to coaches and team managers. We ran experiments to select the best model and chose Random Forest as the best performing. We conclude with how to bridge the gap between the college and national levels of sports analytics and the use of machine learning to enhance team performance despite not having a lot of metrics or budget for automatic tracking.

Keywords: NCAA, NHL, sports analytics, random forest, regression, neural networks, game predictions

Procedia PDF Downloads 103

Authors: Ayten Ekin Meşe, Selahattin Şentürk, Melike Duvanoğlu

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Petroleum refineries are a highly complex process industry with continuous production and high operating costs. Physical separation of crude oil starts with the crude oil distillation unit, continues with various conversion and purification units, and passes through many stages until obtaining the final product. To meet the desired product specification, process parameters are strictly followed. To be able to ensure the quality of distillates, routine analyses are performed in quality control laboratories based on appropriate international standards such as American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) standard methods and European Standard (EN) methods. The cut point of distillates in the crude distillation unit is very crucial for the efficiency of the upcoming processes. In order to maximize the process efficiency, the determination of the quality of distillates should be as fast as possible, reliable, and cost-effective. In this sense, an alternative study was carried out on the crude oil distillation unit that serves the entire refinery process. In this work, studies were conducted with three different crude oil distillates which are Light Straight Run Naphtha (LSRN), Heavy Straight Run Naphtha (HSRN), and Kerosene. These products are named after separation by the number of carbons it contains. LSRN consists of five to six carbon-containing hydrocarbons, HSRN consist of six to ten, and kerosene consists of sixteen to twenty-two carbon-containing hydrocarbons. Physical properties of three different crude distillation unit products (LSRN, HSRN, and Kerosene) were determined using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy with multivariate calibration. The absorbance spectra of the petroleum samples were obtained in the range from 10000 cm⁻¹ to 4000 cm⁻¹, employing a quartz transmittance flow through cell with a 2 mm light path and a resolution of 2 cm⁻¹. A total of 400 samples were collected for each petroleum sample for almost four years. Several different crude oil grades were processed during sample collection times. Extended Multiplicative Signal Correction (EMSC) and Savitzky-Golay (SG) preprocessing techniques were applied to FT-NIR spectra of samples to eliminate baseline shifts and suppress unwanted variation. Two different multivariate calibration approaches (Partial Least Squares Regression, PLS and Genetic Inverse Least Squares, GILS) and an ensemble model were applied to preprocessed FT-NIR spectra. Predictive performance of each multivariate calibration technique and preprocessing techniques were compared, and the best models were chosen according to the reproducibility of ASTM reference methods. This work demonstrates the developed models can be used for routine analysis instead of conventional analytical methods with over 90% accuracy.

Keywords: crude distillation unit, multivariate calibration, near infrared spectroscopy, data preprocessing, refinery

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Authors: Naushad Mamode Khan

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The Com-Poisson (CMP) model is one of the most popular discrete generalized linear models (GLMS) that handles both equi-, over- and under-dispersed data. In longitudinal context, an integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) process that incorporates covariate specification has been developed to model longitudinal CMP counts. However, the joint likelihood CMP function is difficult to specify and thus restricts the likelihood based estimating methodology. The joint generalized quasilikelihood approach (GQL-I) was instead considered but is rather computationally intensive and may not even estimate the regression effects due to a complex and frequently ill conditioned covariance structure. This paper proposes a new GQL approach for estimating the regression parameters (GQLIII) that are based on a single score vector representation. The performance of GQL-III is compared with GQL-I and separate marginal GQLs (GQL-II) through some simulation experiments and is proved to yield equally efficient estimates as GQL-I and is far more computationally stable.

Keywords: longitudinal, com-Poisson, ill-conditioned, INAR(1), GLMS, GQL

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: Adil Kaval, Digdem Muge Siyez

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With the negative effects of internet use in a person's life, the use of the Internet has become an issue. This subject was mostly considered as internet addiction, and it was investigated. In literature, it is noteworthy that some theoretical models have been proposed to explain the reasons for internet addiction. In addition to these theoretical models, it may be thought that the coping style for stressing events can be a predictor of internet addiction. It was aimed to test with logistic regression the effect of high school students' coping styles on internet addiction levels. Sample of the study consisted of 770 Turkish adolescents (471 girls, 299 boys) selected from high schools in the 2017-2018 academic year in İzmir province. Internet Addiction Test, Coping Scale for Child and Adolescents and a demographic information form were used in this study. The results of the logistic regression analysis indicated that the model of coping styles predicted internet addiction provides a statistically significant prediction of internet addiction. Gender does not predict whether or not to be addicted to the internet. The active coping style is not effective on internet addiction levels, while the avoiding and negative coping style are effective on internet addiction levels. With this model, % 79.1 of internet addiction in high school is estimated. The Negelkerke pseudo R2 indicated that the model accounted for %35 of the total variance. The results of this study on Turkish adolescents are similar to the results of other studies in the literature. It can be argued that avoiding and negative coping styles are important risk factors in the development of internet addiction.

Keywords: adolescents, coping, internet addiction, regression analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 165

Authors: Seyed Sadegh Naseralavi, Najmeh Bemani

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In this paper, different concrete codes including America, New Zealand, Mexico, Italy, India, Canada, Hong Kong, Euro Code and Britain are compared with the Iranian concrete design code. First, by using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the codes having the most correlation with the Iranian ninth issue of the national regulation are determined. Consequently, two anticipated methods are used for comparing the codes: Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multi-variable regression. The results show that ANN performs better. Predicting is done by using only tensile steel ratio and with ignoring the compression steel ratio.

Keywords: adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system, anticipate method, artificial neural network, concrete design code, multi-variable regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Neha Ahirwar

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In the contemporary digital era, the rise of credit card fraud poses a significant threat to both financial institutions and consumers. As fraudulent activities become more sophisticated, there is an escalating demand for robust and effective fraud detection mechanisms. Advanced machine learning algorithms have become crucial tools in addressing this challenge. This paper conducts a thorough examination of the design and evaluation of a credit card fraud detection system, utilizing four prominent machine learning algorithms: random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, and XGBoost. The surge in digital transactions has opened avenues for fraudsters to exploit vulnerabilities within payment systems. Consequently, there is an urgent need for proactive and adaptable fraud detection systems. This study addresses this imperative by exploring the efficacy of machine learning algorithms in identifying fraudulent credit card transactions. The selection of random forest, logistic regression, decision tree, and XGBoost for scrutiny in this study is based on their documented effectiveness in diverse domains, particularly in credit card fraud detection. These algorithms are renowned for their capability to model intricate patterns and provide accurate predictions. Each algorithm is implemented and evaluated for its performance in a controlled environment, utilizing a diverse dataset comprising both genuine and fraudulent credit card transactions.

Keywords: efficient credit card fraud detection, random forest, logistic regression, XGBoost, decision tree

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Andrew Hardman, Alistair T. McIlhagger, Edward Archer

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A degree of research has been undertaken in the determination of 3D textile preforms behaviour to compression with direct comparison to 2D counterparts. Multiscale simulations have been developed to try and accurately analyse the behaviour of varying architectures post-consolidation. However, further understanding is required to experimentally identify the mechanisms and deformations that exist upon conforming to a complex contour. Due to the complexity of 3D textile preforms, determination of yarn behaviour to a complex contour is assessed through consolidation by means of vacuum assisted resin transfer moulding (VARTM), and the resulting mechanisms are investigated by micrograph analysis. Varying architectures; with known areal densities, pic density and thicknesses are assessed for a cohesive study. The resulting performance of each is assessed qualitatively as well as quantitatively from the perspective of material in terms of the change in representative unit cell (RVE) across the curved beam contour, in crimp percentage, tow angle, resin rich areas and binder distortion. A novel textile is developed from the resulting analysis to overcome the observed deformations.

Keywords: comformability, compression, binder architecture, 3D weaving, textile preform

Procedia PDF Downloads 151

Authors: Ghada A. Alfattni

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Analysing unbalanced datasets is one of the challenges that practitioners in machine learning field face. However, many researches have been carried out to determine the effectiveness of the use of the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) to address this issue. The aim of this study was therefore to compare the effectiveness of the SMOTE over different models on unbalanced datasets. Three classification models (Logistic Regression, Support Vector Machine and Nearest Neighbour) were tested with multiple datasets, then the same datasets were oversampled by using SMOTE and applied again to the three models to compare the differences in the performances. Results of experiments show that the highest number of nearest neighbours gives lower values of error rates. 

Keywords: imbalanced datasets, SMOTE, machine learning, logistic regression, support vector machine, nearest neighbour

Procedia PDF Downloads 329

Authors: Gustavo G. Shimamoto, Matthieu Tubino

Abstract:

The characterization and the quality of biodiesel samples are checked by determining several parameters. Considering a large number of analysis to be performed, as well as the disadvantages of the use of toxic solvents and waste generation, multivariate calibration is suggested to reduce the number of tests. In this work, hydrogen nuclear magnetic resonance (1H NMR) spectra were used to build multivariate models, from partial least squares (PLS) regression, in order to determine simultaneously six important characterizing and/or quality parameters of biodiesels: density at 20 ºC, kinematic viscosity at 40 ºC, iodine value, acid number, oxidative stability, and water content. Biodiesels from twelve different oils sources were used in this study: babassu, brown flaxseed, canola, corn, cottonseed, macauba almond, microalgae, palm kernel, residual frying, sesame, soybean, and sunflower. 1H NMR reflects the structures of the compounds present in biodiesel samples and showed suitable correlations with the six parameters. The PLS models were constructed with latent variables between 5 and 7, the obtained values of r(cal) and r(val) were greater than 0.994 and 0.989, respectively. In addition, the models were considered suitable to predict all the six parameters for external samples, taking into account the analytical speed to perform it. Thus, the alliance between 1H NMR and PLS showed to be appropriate to characterize and evaluate the quality of biodiesels, reducing significantly analysis time, the consumption of reagents/solvents, and waste generation. Therefore, the proposed methods can be considered to adhere to the principles of green chemistry.

Keywords: biodiesel, multivariate calibration, nuclear magnetic resonance, quality parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 527