Search results for: predicted mean vote

Authors: Narissara Nuthammachot, Dimitris Stratoulias

Abstract:

Fire is one of the main causes of environmental and ecosystem change. Therefore, it is a challenging task for fire risk assessment fire potential mapping. The study area is Hua Sai district, Nakorn Sri Thammarat province, which covers in a part of peat swamp forest areas. 55 fire points in peat swamp areas were reported from 2012 to 2016. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Geographic Information System (GIS) methods were selected for this study. The risk fire area map was arranged on these factors; elevation, slope, aspect, precipitation, distance from the river, distance from town, and land use. The results showed that the predicted fire risk areas are found to be in appreciable reliability with past fire events. The fire risk map can be used for the planning and management of fire areas in the future.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, fire risk assessment, geographic information system, peat swamp forest

Procedia PDF Downloads 211

Authors: C. F. Popoola, K. Akinsanya, S. B. Babarinde, D. A. Farinde

Abstract:

This study investigated published financial statement as correlate of investment decision among commercial bank stakeholders in Nigeria. A correlation research design was used in the study. 180 users of published financial statement were purposively sampled from Lagos and Ibadan. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation and regression. The findings of the study revealed that, balance sheet is negatively related with investment decision (r=-.483; p < .01) while income statement (r= .249; p < .001), notes on the account (r= .230; p < .001), cash flow statement (r= .202; p < .001), value added statement (r= .328; p < .001) and five-year financial summary (r= .191 ;p < .01) are positively related with investment decision. Findings also revealed that components of published financial statement significantly predicted good investment decision (R2= .983; F(5,175)=284.5; p < .05) for commercial bank stakeholders. Therefore, it was suggested that Nigeria banks and professional bodies should instigate programs that will increase the knowledge of stakeholders on published financial statement.

Keywords: commercial banks, financial statement, income statement, investment decision, stakeholders

Procedia PDF Downloads 459

Authors: M. Karimpour, N. Elkhoury, L. Hitihamillage, S. Moridpour, R. Hesami

Abstract:

There is a necessity among rail transportation authorities for a superior understanding of the rail track degradation overtime and the factors influencing rail degradation. They need an accurate technique to identify the time when rail tracks fail or need maintenance. In turn, this will help to increase the level of safety and comfort of the passengers and the vehicles as well as improve the cost effectiveness of maintenance activities. An accurate model can play a key role in prediction of the long-term behaviour of railroad tracks. An accurate model can decrease the cost of maintenance. In this research, the rail track degradation is predicted using an autoregressive moving average with exogenous input (ARMAX). An ARMAX has been implemented on Melbourne tram data to estimate the values for the tram track degradation. Gauge values and rail usage in Million Gross Tone (MGT) are the main parameters used in the model. The developed model can accurately predict the future status of the tram tracks.

Keywords: ARMAX, dynamic systems, MGT, prediction, rail degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: Pedro Llanos, Diego García

Abstract:

This paper is addressed to expanding our understanding of the effects of hypoxia training on our bodies to better model its dynamics and leverage some of its implications and effects on human health. Hypoxia training is a recommended practice for military and civilian pilots that allow them to recognize their early hypoxia signs and symptoms, and Scientist Astronaut Candidates (SACs) who underwent hypobaric hypoxia (HH) exposure as part of a training activity for prospective suborbital flight applications. This observational-analytical study describes physiologic responses and symptoms experienced by a SAC group before, during and after HH exposure and proposes a model for assessing predicted versus observed physiological responses. A group of individuals with diverse Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM) backgrounds conducted a hypobaric training session to an altitude up to 22,000 ft (FL220) or 6,705 meters, where heart rate (HR), breathing rate (BR) and core temperature (Tc) were monitored with the use of a chest strap sensor pre and post HH exposure. A pulse oximeter registered levels of saturation of oxygen (SpO₂), number and duration of desaturations during the HH chamber flight. Hypoxia symptoms as described by the SACs during the HH training session were also registered. This data allowed to generate a preliminary predictive model of the oxygen desaturation and O₂ pressure curve for each subject, which consists of a sixth-order polynomial fit during exposure, and a fifth or fourth-order polynomial fit during recovery. Data analysis showed that HR and BR showed no significant differences between pre and post HH exposure in most of the SACs, while Tc measures showed slight but consistent decrement changes. All subjects registered SpO₂ greater than 94% for the majority of their individual HH exposures, but all of them presented at least one clinically significant desaturation (SpO₂ < 85% for more than 5 seconds) and half of the individuals showed SpO₂ below 87% for at least 30% of their HH exposure time. Finally, real time collection of HH symptoms presented temperature somatosensory perceptions (SP) for 65% of individuals, and task-focus issues for 52.5% of individuals as the most common HH indications. 95% of the subjects experienced HH onset symptoms below FL180; all participants achieved full recovery of HH symptoms within 1 minute of donning their O₂ mask. The current HH study performed on this group of individuals suggests a rapid and fully reversible physiologic response after HH exposure as expected and obtained in previous studies. Our data showed consistent results between predicted versus observed SpO₂ curves during HH suggesting a mathematical function that may be used to model HH performance deficiencies. During the HH study, real-time HH symptoms were registered providing evidenced SP and task focusing as the earliest and most common indicators. Finally, an assessment of HH signs of symptoms in a group of heterogeneous, non-pilot individuals showed similar results to previous studies in homogeneous populations of pilots.

Keywords: slow onset hypoxia, hypobaric chamber training, altitude sickness, symptoms and altitude, pressure cabin

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Fasanmi Samuel Sunday

Abstract:

This study investigated the influence of gender and personality traits on emotional distress among awaiting trial inmates in Nigeria. Participants were three hundred and twenty (320) awaiting trial inmates, drawn from three main correctional centres in Northeast Nigeria, namely: Gashua Correctional Centre, Postiskum Correctional Centre, and Bauchi Correctional Centre. Expo facto research design was adopted. Questionnaires such as the Big Five Inventory and the Perceived Emotional Distress Inventory (PEDI) were used to measure the variables of the study. Three hypotheses were tested. Logistic regression was used for data analysis. Results of the analysis indicated that conscientiousness significantly predicted emotional distress among awaiting trial inmates. However, most of the identified personality traits did not significantly predict emotional distress among awaiting trial inmates. There was no significant gender difference in emotional distress among awaiting-trial inmates. The implications of the study were discussed.

Keywords: personality traits, emotional distress, awaiting-trial inmates, gender

Procedia PDF Downloads 98

Authors: Yael Livneh, Shay Tzafrir, Ilan Meshoulam

Abstract:

Technological startup companies have been recognized as bearing tremendous potential for business and economic success. However, many entrepreneurs who produce promising innovative ideas fail to implement them as successful businesses. A key argument for such failure is the entrepreneurs' lack of competence in adaptation of the relevant level of formality of human resource management (HRM). The purpose of the present research was to examine multiple antecedents and consequences of HRM formality in growing startup companies. A review of the research literature identified two central components of HRM formality: HR control and professionalism. The effect of three contextual predictors was examined. The first was an intra-organizational factor: the development level of the organization. We based on a differentiation between knowledge exploration and knowledge exploitation. At a given time, the organization chooses to focus on a specific mix of these orientations, a choice which requires an appropriate level of HRM formality, in order to efficiently overcome the challenges. It was hypothesized that the mix of orientations of knowledge exploration and knowledge exploitation would predict HRM formality. The second predictor was the personal characteristics the organization's leader. According the idea of blueprint effect of CEO's on HRM, it was hypothesized that the CEO's cognitive style would predict HRM formality. The third contextual predictor was an external organizational factor: the level of investor involvement. By using the agency theory, and based on Transaction Cost Economy, it was hypothesized that the level of investor involvement in general management and HRM would be positively related to the HRM formality. The effect of formality on trust was examined directly and indirectly by the mediation role of procedural justice. The research method included a time-lagged field study. In the first study, data was obtained using three questionnaires, each directed to a different source: CEO, HR position-holder and employees. 43 companies participated in this study. The second study was conducted approximately a year later. Data was recollected using three questionnaires by reapplying the same sample. 41 companies participated in the second study. The organizations samples included technological startup companies. Both studies included 884 respondents. The results indicated consistency between the two studies. HRM formality was predicted by the intra-organizational factor as well as the personal characteristics of the CEO, but not at all by the external organizational context. Specifically, the organizational orientations was the greatest contributor to both components of HRM formality. The cognitive style predicted formality to a lesser extent. The investor's involvement was found not to have any predictive effect on the HRM formality. The results indicated a positive contribution to trust in HRM, mainly via the mediation of procedural justice. This study contributed a new concept for technological startup company development by a mixture of organizational orientation. Practical implications indicated that the level of HRM formality should be matched to that of the company's development. This match should be challenged and adjusted periodically by referring to the organization orientation, relevant HR practices, and HR function characteristics. A relevant matching could enhance further trust and business success.

Keywords: control, formality, human resource management, organizational development, professionalism, technological startup company

Procedia PDF Downloads 264

Authors: Umit Duru

Abstract:

The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was tested for prediction of water balance and sediment yield in the Ankara gauged basin, Turkey. The overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance and applicability of the SWAT in this region of Turkey. Thirteen years of monthly stream flow, and suspended sediment, data were used for calibration and validation. This research assessed model performance based on differences between observed and predicted suspended sediment yield during calibration (1987-1996) and validation (1982-1984) periods. Statistical comparisons of suspended sediment produced values for NSE (Nash Sutcliffe efficiency), RE (relative error), and R² (coefficient of determination), of 0.81, -1.55, and 0.93, respectively, during the calibration period, and NSE, RE (%), and R² of 0.77, -2.61, and 0.87, respectively, during the validation period. Based on the analyses, SWAT satisfactorily simulated observed hydrology and sediment yields and can be used as a tool in decision making for water resources planning and management in the basin.

Keywords: calibration, GIS, sediment yield, SWAT, validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 283

Authors: Shraddha Digole, Swarali Hingse, Uday Annapure

Abstract:

Mycophenolic acid (MPA) is an immunosuppressant; produced by Penicillium Sp. Box-Behnken statistical experimental design was employed to optimize the condition of Penicillium brevicompactum NRRL 2011 for mycophenolic acid (MPA) production. Initially optimization of various physicochemical parameters and media components was carried out using one factor at a time approach and significant factors were screened by Taguchi L-16 orthogonal array design. Taguchi design indicated that glucose, KH2PO4 and MgSO4 had significant effect on MPA production. These variables were selected for further optimization studies using Box-Behnken design. Optimised fermentation condition, glucose (60 g/L), glycine (28 g/L), L-leucine (1.5g/L), KH2PO4 (3g/L), MgSO4.7H2O (1.5g/L), increased the production of MPA from 170 mg/L to 1032.54 mg/L. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed a high value of coefficient of determination R2 (0.9965), indicating a good agreement between experimental and predicted values and proves validity of the statistical model.

Keywords: Box-Behnken design, fermentation, mycophenolic acid, Penicillium brevicompactum

Procedia PDF Downloads 452

Authors: M. Firoz Kalam, Wilfried Schuetz, Jan Hendrik Bredehoeft

Abstract:

Thiophene sulfur compounds' removal from diesel oil by batch adsorption process using commercial powdered activated carbon was designed and optimized in two-level factorial design method. This design analysis was used to find out the effects of operating parameters directing the adsorption process, such as amount of adsorbent, temperature and stirring time. The desulfurization efficiency was considered the response or output variable. Results showed that the stirring time had the largest effects on sulfur removal efficiency as compared with other operating parameters and their interactions under the experimental ranges studied. A regression model was generated to observe the closeness between predicted and experimental values. The three-dimensional plots and contour plots of main factors were generated according to the regression results to observe the optimal points.

Keywords: activated carbon, adsorptive desulfurization, factorial design, process optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Mohammed Auwal Ibrahim, Aminu Mohammed

Abstract:

Stigmasterol has previously been reported to possess antitrypanosomal activity using in vitro and in vivo models. However, the mechanism of antitrypanosomal activity is yet to be elucidated. In the present study, molecular docking was used to decipher the mode of interaction and binding affinity of stigmasterol to three known antitrypanosomal drug targets viz; adenosine kinase, ornithine decarboxylase and triose phosphate isomerase. Stigmasterol was found to bind to the selected trypanosomal enzymes with minimum binding energy of -4.2, -6.5 and -6.6 kcal/mol for adenosine kinase, ornithine decarboxylase, and triose phosphate isomerase respectively. However, hydrogen bond was not involved in the interaction of stigmasterol with all the three enzymes, but hydrophobic interaction seemed to play a vital role in the binding phenomenon which was predicted to be non-competitive like type of inhibition. It was concluded that binding to the three selected enzymes, especially triose phosphate isomerase, might be involved in the antitrypanosomal activity of stigmasterol but not mediated via a hydrogen bond interaction.

Keywords: antitrypanosomal, in silico, molecular docking, stigmasterol

Procedia PDF Downloads 278

Authors: Ali Noorzad, Ehsan Badakhshan, Shima Zameni

Abstract:

The present paper is focused on a generalized failure criterion for geomaterials with cross-anisotropy. The cyclic behavior of granular material primarily depends on the nature and arrangement of constituent particles, particle size, and shape that affect fabric anisotropy. To account for the influence of loading directions on strength variations, an anisotropic variable in terms of the invariants of the stress tensor and fabric into the failure criterion is proposed. In an extension to original CANAsand constitutive model two concepts namely critical state and compact state play paramount roles as all of the moduli and coefficients are related to these states. The applicability of the present model is evaluated through comparisons between the predicted and the measured results. All simulations have demonstrated that the proposed constitutive model is capable of modeling the cyclic behavior of sand with inherent anisotropy.

Keywords: fabric, cohesionless media, cyclic loading, critical state, compact state, CANAsand constitutive model

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Shweta K. Vyas, Rakesh Musale, Sanjeev R. Shukla

Abstract:

Eri silk is a non mulberry silk which is obtained without killing the silkworms and hence it is also known as Ahmisa silk. In the present study, the results on degumming of eri silk with alkaline peroxide have been compared with those obtained by using ionic liquid (IL) 1-Butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride [BMIM]Cl. Experiments were designed to find out the optimum processing parameters for degumming of eri silk by response surface methodology. The statistical software, Design-Expert 6.0 was used for regression analysis and graphical analysis of the responses obtained by running the set of designed experiments. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to estimate the statistical parameters. The polynomial equation of quadratic order was employed to fit the experimental data. The quality and model terms were evaluated by F-test. Three dimensional surface plots were prepared to study the effect of variables on different responses. The optimum conditions for IL treatment were selected from predicted combinations and the experiments were repeated under these conditions to determine the reproducibility.

Keywords: silk degumming, ionic liquid, response surface methodology, ANOVA

Procedia PDF Downloads 593

Authors: Ayad Sleibi Mustafa, Ahmed Abdulkadhim Mohsin, Layth Noori Ali

Abstract:

The deterioration of solid waste management in Baghdad city is considered as a great challenge in terms of human health and environment. Baghdad city is divided into thirteen districts which are distributed on both Tigris River banks. The west bank is Al-Karkh and the east bank is Al-Rusafa. Municipal Solid Waste Management is one of the most complicated problems facing the environment in Iraq. Population growth led to increase waste production and more load of the waste to the limited capacity infrastructure. The problems of municipal solid waste become more serious after the war in 2003. More waste is disposed in underground landfills in Baghdad with little or no concern for both human health and environment. The results showed that the total annually predicted solid waste is increasing for the period 2015-2030. Municipal solid waste in 2030 will be 6,427,773 tons in Baghdad city according to the population growth rate of 2.4%. This increase is estimated to be approximately 30%.

Keywords: municipal solid waste, solid waste composition and characteristics, Baghdad city, environment, human health

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Mandeep Kumar, Hari Singh

Abstract:

The effective optimization of machining process parameters affects dramatically the cost and production time of machined components as well as the quality of the final products. This paper presents the optimization aspects of a Wire Electrical Discharge Machining operation using Inconel X-750 as work material. The objective considered in this study is minimization of the dimensional deviation. Six input process parameters of WEDM namely spark gap voltage, pulse-on time, pulse-off time, wire feed rate, peak current and wire tension, were chosen as variables to study the process performance. Taguchi's design of experiments methodology has been used for planning and designing the experiments. The analysis of variance was carried out for raw data as well as for signal to noise ratio. Four input parameters and one two-factor interaction have been found to be statistically significant for their effects on the response of interest. The confirmation experiments were also performed for validating the predicted results.

Keywords: ANOVA, DOE, inconel, machining, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 205

Authors: Asmaa Shehata

Abstract:

Prior research indicates that second language (L2) learners encounter difficulty in the distinguishing novel L2 contrasting sounds that are not contrastive in their native languages. L2 orthographic information, however, is found to play a positive role in the acquisition of non-native phoneme contrasts. While most studies have mainly involved a familiar written script (i.e., the Roman script), the influence of a foreign, unfamiliar script is still unknown. Therefore, the present study asks: Does unfamiliar L2 script play a role in creating distinct phonological representations of novel contrasting phonemes? It is predicted that subjects’ performance in the unfamiliar orthography group will outperform their counterparts’ performance in the control group. Thus, training that entails orthographic inputs can yield a significant improvement in L2 adult learners’ identification and lexical encoding of novel L2 consonant contrasts. Results are discussed in terms of their implications for the type of input introduced to L2 learners to improve their language learning.

Keywords: Arabic, consonant contrasts, foreign script, lexical encoding, orthography, word learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: K. D. Sharma, M. Parida, S. S. Jain, Anju Saini, V. K. Katiyar

Abstract:

Air quality models form one of the most important components of an urban air quality management plan. Various statistical modeling techniques (regression, multiple regression and time series analysis) have been used to predict air pollution concentrations in the urban environment. These models calculate pollution concentrations due to observed traffic, meteorological and pollution data after an appropriate relationship has been obtained empirically between these parameters. Artificial neural network (ANN) is increasingly used as an alternative tool for modeling the pollutants from vehicular traffic particularly in urban areas. In the present paper, an attempt has been made to model traffic air pollution, specifically CO concentration using neural networks. In case of CO concentration, two scenarios were considered. First, with only classified traffic volume input and the second with both classified traffic volume and meteorological variables. The results showed that CO concentration can be predicted with good accuracy using artificial neural network (ANN).

Keywords: air quality management, artificial neural network, meteorological variables, statistical modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 524

Authors: Ju-Hyung Kim, Dae-Ho Mun, Hong-Gun Park

Abstract:

When an impact is applied to a floating floor, noise and vibration response of high-frequency range is reduced effectively, while amplifies the response at low-frequency range. This means floating floor can make worse noise condition when heavy-weight impact is applied. The amplified response is the result of interaction between finishing layer (mortar plate) and concrete slab. Because an impact force is not directly delivered to concrete slab, the impact force waveform or spectrum can be changed. In this paper, the changed impact spectrum was derived from several floating floor vibration tests. Based on the measured data, numerical modeling can describe the floating floor response, especially at low-frequency range. As a result, heavy-weight impact noise can be predicted using modified impact spectrum.

Keywords: floating floor, heavy-weight impact, prediction, vibration

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: O. Behar, A. Khellaf, K. Mohammedi, S. Ait Kaci

Abstract:

Up to now, most validation studies have been based on the MBE and RMSE, and therefore, focused only on long and short terms performance to test and classify solar radiation models. This traditional analysis does not take into account the quality of modeling and linearity. In our analysis we have tested 22 solar radiation models that are capable to provide instantaneous direct and global radiation at any given location Worldwide. We introduce a new indicator, which we named Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI) to examine the linear relationship between the measured and predicted values and the quality of modeling in addition to long and short terms performance. Note that the quality of model has been represented by the T-Statistical test, the model linearity has been given by the correlation coefficient and the long and short term performance have been respectively known by the MBE and RMSE. An important founding of this research is that the use GAI allows avoiding default validation when using traditional methodology that might results in erroneous prediction of solar power conversion systems performances.

Keywords: solar radiation model, parametric model, performance analysis, Global Accuracy Indicator (GAI)

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: Arsyam Mawardi, Sony Suhandono, Azzania Fibriani, Fifi Fitriyah Masduki

Abstract:

Malaria is an infectious disease caused by Plasmodium sp. This disease has a high prevalence in Indonesia, especially in Jayapura. The vaccine that is currently being developed has not been effective in overcoming malaria. This is due to the high polymorphism in the Plasmodium genome especially in areas that encode Plasmodium surface proteins. Merozoite Surface Protein 1 (MSP1) Plasmodium falciparum is a surface protein that plays a role in the invasion process in human erythrocytes through the interaction of Glycophorin A protein receptors and sialic acid in erythrocytes with Reticulocyte Binding Proteins (RBP) and Duffy Adhesion Protein (DAP) ligands in merozoites. MSP1 can be targeted to be a specific antigen and predicted epitope area which will be used for the development of diagnostic and malaria vaccine therapy. MSP1 consists of 17 blocks, each block is dimorphic, and has been marked as the K1 and MAD20 alleles. Exceptions only in block 2, because it has 3 alleles, among others K1, MAD20 and RO33. These polymorphisms cause allelic variations and implicate the severity of patients infected P. falciparum. In addition, polymorphism of MSP1 in Jayapura isolates has not been reported so it is interesting to be further identified and projected as a specific antigen. Therefore, in this study, we analyzed the allele polymorphism as well as detected the MSP1 epitope antigen candidate on block 2 P. falciparum. Clinical samples of selected malaria patients followed the consecutive sampling method, examining malaria parasites with blood preparations on glass objects observed through a microscope. Plasmodium DNA was isolated from the blood of malarial positive patients. The block 2 MSP1 gene was amplified using PCR method and cloned using the pGEM-T easy vector then transformed to TOP'10 E.coli. Positive colonies selection was performed with blue-white screening. The existence of target DNA was confirmed by PCR colonies and DNA sequencing methods. Furthermore, DNA sequence analysis was done through alignment and formation of a phylogenetic tree using MEGA 6 software and insilico analysis using IEDB software to predict epitope candidate for P. falciparum. A total of 15 patient samples have been isolated from Plasmodium DNA. PCR amplification results show the target gene size about ± 1049 bp. The results of MSP1 nucleotide alignment analysis reveal that block 2 MSP1 genes derived from the sample of malarial patients were distributed in four different allele family groups, K1 (7), MAD20 (1), RO33 (0) and MSP1_Jayapura (10) alleles. The most commonly appears of the detected allele is MSP1_Jayapura single allele. There was no significant association between sex variables, age, the density of parasitemia and alel variation (Mann Whitney, U > 0.05), while symptomatic signs have a significant difference as a trigger of detectable allele variation (U < 0.05). In this research, insilico study shows that there is a new epitope antigen candidate from the MSP1_Jayapura allele and it is predicted to be recognized by B cells with 17 amino acid lengths in the amino acid sequence 187 to 203.

Keywords: epitope candidate, insilico analysis, MSP1 P. falciparum, polymorphism

Procedia PDF Downloads 180

Authors: Mohamed Hafid, Marcel Lacroix

Abstract:

This study presents an inverse analysis for predicting the thermal conductivities and the heat flux of a high-temperature metallurgical reactor simultaneously. Once these thermal parameters are predicted, the time-varying thickness of the protective phase-change bank that covers the inside surface of the brick walls of a metallurgical reactor can be calculated. The enthalpy method is used to solve the melting/solidification process of the protective bank. The inverse model rests on the Levenberg-Marquardt Method (LMM) combined with the Broyden method (BM). A statistical analysis for the thermal parameter estimation is carried out. The effect of the position of the temperature sensors, total number of measurements and measurement noise on the accuracy of inverse predictions is investigated. Recommendations are made concerning the location of temperature sensors.

Keywords: inverse heat transfer, phase change, metallurgical reactor, Levenberg–Marquardt method, Broyden method, bank thickness

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Ahmed T. Farid, Muhammed Rizwan

Abstract:

Geotechnical study for evaluating soil or rock permeability is a highly important parameter. Permeability values for rock formations are more difficult for determination than soil formation as it is an effect of the rock quality and its fracture values. In this research, the prediction of in situ permeability of limestone rock formations was predicted. The limestone rock permeability was evaluated using Lugeon tests (in-situ packer permeability). Different sites which spread all over the Riyadh region of Saudi Arabia were chosen to conduct our study of predicting the in-situ permeability of limestone rock. Correlations were deducted between the values of in-situ permeability of the limestone rock with the value of the rock quality designation (RQD) calculated during the execution of the boreholes of the study areas. The study was performed for different ranges of RQD values measured during drilling of the sites boreholes. The developed correlations are recommended for the onsite determination of the in-situ permeability of limestone rock only. For the other sedimentary formations of rock, more studies are needed for predicting the actual correlations related to each type.

Keywords: In situ, packer, permeability, rock, quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: Md Al Masum Bhuiyan, Maria C. Mariani, Osei K. Tweneboah

Abstract:

In the present work, we develop a technique for estimating the volatility of financial time series by using stochastic differential equation. Taking the daily closing prices from developed and emergent stock markets as the basis, we argue that the incorporation of stochastic volatility into the time-varying parameter estimation significantly improves the forecasting performance via Maximum Likelihood Estimation. While using the technique, we see the long-memory behavior of data sets and one-step-ahead-predicted log-volatility with ±2 standard errors despite the variation of the observed noise from a Normal mixture distribution, because the financial data studied is not fully Gaussian. Also, the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process followed in this work simulates well the financial time series, which aligns our estimation algorithm with large data sets due to the fact that this algorithm has good convergence properties.

Keywords: financial time series, maximum likelihood estimation, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type models, stochastic volatility model

Procedia PDF Downloads 242

Authors: Nikki Berrange, Gizelle Willows

Abstract:

Business rescue has become increasingly popular since its inclusion in the Companies Act of South Africa in May 2011. The Alternate Exchange (AltX) of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange has experienced a marked increase in the number of companies entering business rescue. This study sampled twenty companies listed on the AltX to determine whether Altman’s Z-score model for emerging markets (ZEM) or Taffler’s Z-score model is a more accurate model in predicting financial distress for small to medium size companies in South Africa. The study was performed over three different time horizons; one, two and three years prior to the event of financial distress, in order to determine how many companies each model predicted would be unlikely to succeed as well as the predictive ability and accuracy of the respective models. The study found that Taffler’s Z-score model had a greater ability at predicting financial distress from all three-time horizons.

Keywords: Altman’s ZEM-score, Altman’s Z-score, AltX, business rescue, Taffler’s Z-score

Procedia PDF Downloads 372

Authors: R. K. Apalowo, D. Chronopoulos, V. Thierry

Abstract:

A wave finite element (WFE) and finite element (FE) based computational method is presented by which the dispersion properties as well as the wave interaction coefficients for one-dimensional structural system can be predicted. The structural system is discretized as a system comprising a number of waveguides connected by a coupling joint. Uniform nodes are ensured at the interfaces of the coupling element with each waveguide. Then, equilibrium and continuity conditions are enforced at the interfaces. Wave propagation properties of each waveguide are calculated using the WFE method and the coupling element is modelled using the FE method. The scattering of waves through the coupling element, on which damage is modelled, is determined by coupling the FE and WFE models. Furthermore, the central aim is to evaluate the effect of pressurization on the wave dispersion and scattering characteristics of the prestressed structural system compared to that which is not prestressed. Numerical case studies are exhibited for two waveguides coupled through a coupling joint.

Keywords: Finite Element, Prestressed Structures, Wave Finite Element, Wave Propagation Properties, Wave Scattering Coefficients.

Procedia PDF Downloads 295

Authors: Chung-Young Lee, Se-Hee Ahn, Ilhwan Kim, Du-Min Go, Dae-Yong Kim, Jun-Gu Choi, Youn-Jeong Lee, Jae-Hong Kim, Hyuk-Joon Kwon

Abstract:

The polymerase of avian influenza A virus (AIV) is a heterotrimer composed of PB2, PB1 and PA. PB2 plays a role in overcoming the host barrier; however, the genetic prerequisites for avian PB2 to acquire mammalian pathogenic mutations have not been well elucidated. Here, we demonstrated that key amino acid mutations (I66M, I109V and I133V, collectively referred to as MVV) of prototypic avian PB2 increase the replication efficiency of recombinant PR8 virus carrying the mutated PB2 in both avian and mammalian hosts. The MVV mutations caused no weight loss in mice, but they did allow replication in infected lungs, and the viruses acquired fatal mammalian pathogenic mutations such as Q591R/K, E627K, or D701N in the infected lungs. The MVV mutations are located at the interfaces of the trimer and are predicted to increase the strength of this structure. Thus, gaining MVV mutations might be the first step for AIV to acquire mammalian pathogenicity. These results provide new insights into the evolution of AIV in birds and mammals.

Keywords: avian influenza A virus, prototypic PB2, polymerase activity, mammalian pathogenicity, first-step mutations

Procedia PDF Downloads 345

Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Syed Mohd Ahmad

Abstract:

This paper presents a methodology to develop fragility curves for shallow tunnels so as to describe a relationship between seismic hazard and tunnel vulnerability. Emphasis is given to the influence of surrounding soil material properties because the dynamic behaviour of the tunnel mostly depends on it. Four ground properties of soils ranging from stiff to soft soils are selected. A 3D nonlinear time history analysis is used to evaluate the seismic response of the tunnel when subjected to five real earthquake ground intensities. The derived curves show the future probabilistic performance of the tunnels based on the predicted level of damage states corresponding to the peak ground acceleration. A comparison of the obtained results with the previous literature is provided to validate the reliability of the proposed fragility curves. Results show the significant role of soil properties and input motions in evaluating the seismic performance and response of shallow tunnels.

Keywords: fragility analysis, seismic performance, tunnel lining, vulnerability

Procedia PDF Downloads 314

Authors: Chih-Wen Wu

Abstract:

This study examines the antecedents of heritage tourism loyalty and its relation to destination image, consumer travel experience, and destination satisfaction in the tourism context. In this respect, a number of important questions concerning how destination image, consumer travel experience, and destination satisfaction impact destination loyalty are raised. This study attempts to identify three key antecedents of loyalty in the heritage context. The author empirically tests predicted relationships by using personal interview data from 475 foreign tourists. The conceptual model investigated the relevant relationships among the constructs by using confirmatory factor analysis(CFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM) approach. Findings from the research sample support the argument that destination image, consumer travel experience, destination satisfaction are the key determinants of destination loyalty. Destination image and consumer travel experience influence destination satisfaction. The author also discusses theoretical and managerial implications of research findings for marketing the heritage globally.

Keywords: heritage, destination loyalty, destination image, consumer travel experience, destination satisfaction, tourism

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Prasenjit Singha, Sunil Yadav, Soumya Ranjan Mohantry, Ajay Kumar Shukla

Abstract:

Temperature distribution in the hematite ore mixed with 7.5% coal was predicted by solving a 1-D heat conduction equation using an implicit finite difference approach. In this work, it was considered a square slab of 20 cm x 20 cm, which assumed the coal to be uniformly mixed with hematite ore. It was solved the equations with the use of MATLAB 2018a software. Heat transfer effects in this 1D dimensional slab convective and the radiative boundary conditions are also considered. Temperature distribution obtained inside hematite slab by considering microwave heating time, thermal conductivity, heat capacity, carbon percentage, sample dimensions, and many other factors such as penetration depth, permittivity, and permeability of coal and hematite ore mixtures. The resulting temperature profile can be used as a guiding tool for optimizing the microwave-assisted carbothermal reduction process of hematite slab was extended to other dimensions as well, viz., 1 cm x 1 cm, 5 cm x 5 cm, 10 cm x 10 cm, 20 cm x 20 cm. The model predictions are in good agreement with experimental results.

Keywords: hematite ore, coal, microwave processing, heat transfer, implicit method, temperature distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Richard Ji

Abstract:

Nondestructive deflection testing has been accepted widely as a cost-effective tool for evaluating the structural condition of airfield pavements. Backcalculation of pavement layer moduli can be used to characterize the pavement existing condition in order to compute the load bearing capacity of pavement. This paper presents an improved best-fit backcalculation methodology based on deflection predictions obtained using finite element method (FEM). The best-fit approach is based on minimizing the squared error between falling weight deflectometer (FWD) measured deflections and FEM predicted deflections. Then, concrete elastic modulus and modulus of subgrade reaction were back-calculated using Heavy Weight Deflectometer (HWD) deflections collected at the National Airport Pavement Testing Facility (NAPTF) test site. It is an alternative and more versatile method in considering concrete slab geometry and HWD testing locations compared to methods currently available.

Keywords: nondestructive testing, pavement moduli backcalculation, finite element method, concrete pavements

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Sanghyeon Kim, Cheolung Cheong

Abstract:

Savonius wind turbines are a drag-type of vertical-axis wind turbine that has been used most commonly as a small-scale wind generator. However, noise is a main hindrance to wide spreading of Savonius wind turbines, just like other wind turbines. Although noise levels radiating from Savonius wind turbines may be relatively low because of their small size, they induce relatively high annoyance due to their prolonged noise exposure to the near community. Therefore, aerodynamic noise of small vertical-axis wind turbines is one of most important design parameters. In this paper, aerodynamic noise characteristics of Savonius wind turbines are investigated using the hybrid CAA techniques, and their low noise designs are proposed based on understanding of noise generation mechanism. First, flow field around the turbine are analyzed by solving 3-D unsteady incompressible RANS equations. Then, noise radiation is predicted using the Ffowcs Williams and Hawkings equation. Two distinct harmonic noise components, the well-know BPF components and the harmonics whose fundamental frequency is much higher than the BPF are identified. On a basis of this finding, S-shaped blades are proposed as low noise designs and it can reduce the noise levels of Savonius wind turbines by up to 2.7 dB.

Keywords: aerodynamic noise, Savonius wind turbine, vertical-axis wind turbine

Procedia PDF Downloads 460