Search results for: climate change stres

Authors: Aliaksandr Volchak, Мaryna Barushka

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The territory of Belarus is studied quite well in terms of hydrology but runoff fluctuations over time require more detailed research in order to forecast changes in rivers runoff in future. Generally, river runoff is shaped by natural climatic factors, but man-induced impact has become so big lately that it can be compared to natural processes in forming runoffs. In Belarus, a heavy man load on the environment was caused by large-scale land reclamation in the 1960s. Lands of southern Belarus were reclaimed most, which contributed to changes in runoff. Besides, global warming influences runoff. Today we observe increase in air temperature, decrease in precipitation, changes in wind velocity and direction. These result from cyclic climate fluctuations and, to some extent, the growth of concentration of greenhouse gases in the air. Climate change affects Belarus’s water resources in different ways: in hydropower industry, other water-consuming industries, water transportation, agriculture, risks of floods. In this research we have done an assessment of river runoff according to the scenarios of climate change and global climate forecast presented in the 4th and 5th Assessment Reports conducted by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and later specified and adjusted by experts from Vilnius Gediminas Technical University with the use of a regional climatic model. In order to forecast changes in climate and runoff, we analyzed their changes from 1962 up to now. This period is divided into two: from 1986 up to now in comparison with the changes observed from 1961 to 1985. Such a division is a common world-wide practice. The assessment has revealed that, on the average, changes in runoff are insignificant all over the country, even with its irrelevant increase by 0.5 – 4.0% in the catchments of the Western Dvina River and north-eastern part of the Dnieper River. However, changes in runoff have become more irregular both in terms of the catchment area and inter-annual distribution over seasons and river lengths. Rivers in southern Belarus (the Pripyat, the Western Bug, the Dnieper, the Neman) experience reduction of runoff all year round, except for winter, when their runoff increases. The Western Bug catchment is an exception because its runoff reduces all year round. Significant changes are observed in spring. Runoff of spring floods reduces but the flood comes much earlier. There are different trends in runoff changes in spring, summer, and autumn. Particularly in summer, we observe runoff reduction in the south and west of Belarus, with its growth in the north and north-east. Our forecast of runoff up to 2035 confirms the trend revealed in 1961 – 2015. According to it, in the future, there will be a strong difference between northern and southern Belarus, between small and big rivers. Although we predict irrelevant changes in runoff, it is quite possible that they will be uneven in terms of seasons or particular months. Especially, runoff can change in summer, but decrease in the rest seasons in the south of Belarus, whereas in the northern part the runoff is predicted to change insignificantly.

Keywords: assessment, climate fluctuation, forecast, river runoff

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Authors: Syed Towseef Ahmad, Fatima Amin, Pritha Acharya, Anil K. Gupta, Pervez Ahmad

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Glaciers being the sentinels of climate change, are the most visible evidence of global warming. Given the unavailability of observed field-based data, this study has focussed on the use of geospatial techniques to obtain information about the glaciers of Pir-Panjal (PPJ) and the Great Himalayan Regions of Jhelum Basin (GHR). These glaciers need to be monitored in line with the variations in climatic conditions because they significantly contribute to various sectors in the region. The main aim of this study is to map the glaciers in the two adjacent regions (PPJ and GHR) in the north-western Himalayas with different topographies and compare the changes in various glacial attributes during two different time periods (1990-2020). During the last three decades, both PPJ as well as GHR regions have observed deglaciation of around 36 and 26 percent, respectively. The mean elevation of GHR glaciers has increased from 4312 to 4390 masl, while the same for PPJ glaciers has increased from 4085 to 4124 masl during the observation period. Using accumulation area ratio (AAR) method, mean mass balance of -34.52 and -37.6 cm.w.e was recorded for the glaciers of GHR and PPJ, respectively. The difference in areal and mass loss of glaciers in these regions may be due to (i) the smaller size of PPJ glaciers which are all smaller than 1 km² and are thus more responsive to climate change (ii) Higher mean elevation of GHR glaciers (iii) local variations in climatic variables in these glaciated regions. Time series analysis of climate variables indicates that both the mean maximum and minimum temperatures of Qazigund station (Tmax= 19.2, Tmin= 6.4) are comparatively higher than the Pahalgam station (Tmax= 18.8, Tmin= 3.2). Except for precipitation in Qazigund (Slope= - 0.3 mm a⁻¹), each climatic parameter has shown an increasing trend during these three decades, and with the slope of 0.04 and 0.03°c a⁻¹, the positive trend in Tmin (pahalgam) and Tmax (qazigund) are observed to be statistically significant (p≤0.05).

Keywords: glaciers, climate change, Pir-Panjal, greater Himalayas, mass balance

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Authors: Muhammad Imran, Iqra Basit, Mobushir Riaz Khan, Sajid Rasheed Ahmad

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The present study investigates the space-time impact of climate change on the rice crop calendar in tropical Gujranwala, Pakistan. The climate change impact was quantified through the climatic variables, whereas the existing calendar of the rice crop was compared with the phonological stages of the crop, depicted through the time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from Landsat data for the decade 2005-2015. Local maxima were applied on the time series of NDVI to compute the rice phonological stages. Panel models with fixed and cross-section fixed effects were used to establish the relation between the climatic parameters and the time-series of NDVI across villages and across rice growing periods. Results show that the climatic parameters have significant impact on the rice crop calendar. Moreover, the fixed effect model is a significant improvement over cross-sectional fixed effect models (R-squared equal to 0.673 vs. 0.0338). We conclude that high inter-annual variability of climatic variables cause high variability of NDVI, and thus, a shift in the rice crop calendar. Moreover, inter-annual (temporal) variability of the rice crop calendar is high compared to the inter-village (spatial) variability. We suggest the local rice farmers to adapt this change in the rice crop calendar.

Keywords: Landsat NDVI, panel models, temperature, rainfall

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Authors: Sina Abadzadesahraei, Stephen Déry, John Rex

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Climate research has repeatedly identified strong associations between anthropogenic emissions of ‘greenhouses gases’ and observed increases of global mean surface air temperature over the past century. Studies have also demonstrated that the degree of warming varies regionally. Canada is not exempt from this situation, and evidence is mounting that climate change is beginning to cause diverse impacts in both environmental and socio-economic spheres of interest. For example, northeastern British Columbia (BC), whose climate is controlled by a combination of maritime, continental and arctic influences, is warming at a greater rate than the remainder of the province. There are indications that these changing conditions are already leading to shifting patterns in the region’s hydrological cycle, and thus its available water resources. Coincident with these changes, northeastern BC is undergoing rapid development for oil and gas extraction: This depends largely on subsurface hydraulic fracturing (‘fracking’), which uses enormous amounts of freshwater. While this industrial activity has made substantial contributions to regional and provincial economies, it is important to ensure that sufficient and sustainable water supplies are available for all those dependent on the resource, including ecological systems. In this turn demands a comprehensive understanding of how water in all its forms interacts with landscapes, the atmosphere, and of the potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on these processes. The aim of this study is therefore to characterize and quantify all components of the water budget in the small watershed of Coles Lake (141.8 km², 100 km north of Fort Nelson, BC), through a combination of field observations and numerical modelling. Baseline information will aid the assessment of the sustainability of current and future plans for freshwater extraction by the oil and gas industry, and will help to maintain the precarious balance between economic and environmental well-being. This project is a perfect example of interdisciplinary research, in that it not only examines the hydrology of the region but also investigates how natural gas operations and growth can affect water resources. Therefore, a fruitful collaboration between academia, government and industry has been established to fulfill the objectives of this research in a meaningful manner. This project aims to provide numerous benefits to BC communities. Further, the outcome and detailed information of this research can be a huge asset to researchers examining the effect of climate change on water resources worldwide.

Keywords: northeastern British Columbia, water resources, climate change, oil and gas extraction

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Authors: Rajashree Bothale, Venkateswara Rao

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Indian Himalayas also known as third pole with 0.9 Million SQ km area, contain the largest reserve of ice and snow outside poles and affect global climate and water availability in the perennial rivers. The variations in the extent of snow are indicative of climate change. The snow melt is sensitive to climate change (warming) and also an influencing factor to the climate change. A study of the spatio-temporal dynamics of snow cover and melt/freeze conditions is carried out using space based observations in visible and microwave bands. An analysis period of 2003 to 2015 is selected to identify and map the changes and trend in snow cover using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) data. For mapping of wet snow, microwave data is used, which is sensitive to the presence of liquid water in the snow. The present study uses Ku-band scatterometer data from QuikSCAT and Oceansat satellites. The enhanced resolution images at 2.25 km from the 13.6GHz sensor are used to analyze the backscatter response to dry and wet snow for the period of 2000-2013 using threshold method. The study area is divided into three major river basins namely Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus which also represent the diversification in Himalayas as the Eastern Himalayas, Central Himalayas and Western Himalayas. Topographic variations across different zones show that a majority of the study area lies in 4000–5500 m elevation range and the maximum percent of high elevated areas (>5500 m) lies in Western Himalayas. The effect of climate change could be seen in the extent of snow cover and also on the melt/freeze status in different parts of Himalayas. Melt onset day increases from east (March11+11) to west (May12+15) with large variation in number of melt days. Western Himalayas has shorter melt duration (120+15) in comparison to Eastern Himalayas (150+16) providing lesser time for melt. Eastern Himalaya glaciers are prone for enhanced melt due to large melt duration. The extent of snow cover coupled with the status of melt/freeze indicating solar radiation can be used as precursor for monsoon prediction.

Keywords: Indian Himalaya, Scatterometer, Snow Melt/Freeze, AWiFS, Cryosphere

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Authors: Israel Ropo Orimoloye, Johanes A. Belle, Olusola Adeyemi, Olusola O. Ololade

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With more than 100,000 orbits during the past 20 years, Terra has significantly improved our knowledge of the Earth's climate and its implications on societies and ecosystems of human activity and natural disasters, including drought events. With Terra instrument's performance and the free distribution of its products, this study utilised Terra MOD13Q1 satellite data to assess drought disaster events and its spatiotemporal patterns over the Free State Province of South Africa between 2001 and 2019 for summer, autumn, winter, and spring seasons. The study also used high-resolution downscaled climate change projections under three representative concentration pathways (RCP). Three future periods comprising the short (the 2030s), medium (2040s), and long term (2050s) compared to the current period are analysed to understand the potential magnitude of projected climate change-related drought. The study revealed that the year 2001 and 2016 witnessed extreme drought conditions where the drought index is between 0 and 20% across the entire province during summer, while the year 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2015 observed severe drought conditions across the region with variation from one part to the another. The result shows that from -24.5 to -25.5 latitude, the area witnessed a decrease in precipitation (80 to 120mm) across the time slice and an increase in the latitude -26° to -28° S for summer seasons, which is more prominent in the year 2041 to 2050. This study emphasizes the strong spatio-environmental impacts within the province and highlights the associated factors that characterise high drought stress risk, especially on the environment and ecosystems. This study contributes to a disaster risk framework to identify areas for specific research and adaptation activities on drought disaster risk and for environmental planning in the study area, which is characterised by both rural and urban contexts, to address climate change-related drought impacts.

Keywords: remote sensing, drought disaster, climate scenario, assessment

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Authors: Sinem Yıldırım, Çimen Özburak, Özge Özden

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Cities are facing a growing environmental issue as a result of the combined effect of urbanization and climate change. Climate change is the most conspicuousimpact on environmental issues. Nowadays, energy conservation is a very important subject for planners. It is known that green roofs can provide environmental benefits, which include building insulation and mitigating urban heat island effect within the cities. Some of the studies shown that green roofs regulate roof temperature and they have an effect on indoor temperatures of buildings. This research looks at the experimental investigation of different type green roof vegetation with control of no vegetation and their effect on indoor temperatures. The research has been carried out at Near East University Campus with the duration of four months in Nicosia, Cyprus. The experiment was consisting of four green roof types; three of them covered with vegetation, and one of them was not vegetated for control of the experiment. Each hut had 2.7 m2 roof areas, and the soil depth was 8 cm. Mediterranean climate drought resistant ground covers and shrubs were planted on the roof of the three huts. Three different vegetation type was used: 1-Low growing ground cover succulents 2-Mixture of low growing succulents and low shrubs 3-Mixture of low growing succulents, low shrubs, and high growing foliage plantsElitech RC-5 temperature data loggers were used in order to measure indoor temperatures of the huts. Research results were shown that the hut with a highly vegetated roof had the lowest temperatures during hot summer period in Cyprus.

Keywords: green roofs, indoor temperature, vegetation, mediterranean, cyprus

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Authors: Leila Rashidian, Mina Rajabali

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Industrialization has made progress and comfort for human beings in many aspects. It is not only achievement for the global environment but also factor for destruction and disruption of the Earth's climate. In this study, we used LARS.WG model and down scaling of general circulation climate model HADCM-3 daily precipitation amounts, minimum and maximum temperature and daily sunshine hours. These data are provided by the meteorological organization for Caspian Sea coastal station such as Anzali, Manjil, Rasht, Lahijan and Astara since their establishment is from 1982 until 2010. According to the IPCC scenarios, including series A1b, A2, B1, we tried to simulate data from 2010 to 2040. The rainfall pattern has changed. So we have a rainfall distribution inappropriate in different months.

Keywords: climate change, Lars.WG, HADCM3, Gillan province, climatic parameters, A2 scenario

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Authors: Julie Delany

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To thrive in today’s digital climate, it is vital that organisations adopt new technology and prepare for rising digital trends. This proves more difficult in government where, traditionally, people lack change readiness. While individuals may have a desire to work smarter, this does not necessarily mean embracing technology. This paper discusses the rollout of an application into a small department of highly experienced nurses. The goal was to both streamline the department's workflow and provide a platform for gathering essential business metrics. The biggest challenges were adoption and motivating the nurses to change their routines and learn new computer skills. Two-thirds struggled with the change, and as a result, some jeopardised the validity of the business metrics. In conclusion, there are lessons learned and recommendations for similar projects.

Keywords: change ready, information technology, end-user, iterative method, rollout plan, data analytics

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Authors: Shef Amir Arasy

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In 2023, the world's population will be 7.8 billion, which has increased significantly in the last 20 years. Every country in the world is experiencing the impacts of climate change directly and indirectly. However, the community still needs to build massive infrastructure and buildings. The massive CO2 emissions which lead to climate change come from cement usage in construction activity. Bamboo is one of the most sustainable materials for reducing carbon emissions and releasing more than 30% oxygen compared to the mass of trees. Besides, bamboo harvest time is faster than other sustainable materials, around 3-4 years. Furthermore, Bamboo has a high tensile strength, which can provide ductility effectively to prevent damage to buildings during an earthquake. By the finite element method, this research analyzes bamboo configuration and connection for tall building structures under different earthquake frequencies and fire. The aim of this research is to provide proper design and connection of bamboo buildings that can be more reliable than concrete structures.

Keywords: bamboo, concrete, ductility, earthquake.

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Authors: Hyelim Park, Juan Martin Zorrilla

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Climate change influences very widely and in various ways ocean ecosystem functioning. The consequences of climate change on marine ecosystems are an increase in temperature and irregular behavior of some solute concentrations. These changes would affect fisheries catches in several ways. Our aim is to assess the quantitative contribution change of fishery catches along the time and express them through four environment variables: Sea Surface Temperature (SST4) and the concentrations of Chlorophyll (CHL), Particulate Inorganic Carbon (PIC) and Particulate Organic Carbon (POC) at two spatial scales: Global and the nineteen FAO Major Fishing Areas divisions. Data collection was based on the FAO FishStatJ 2014 database as well as MODIS Aqua satellite observations from 2002 to 2012. Some data had to be corrected and interpolated using some existing methods. As the results, a multivariable regression model for average Global fisheries captures contained temporal mean of SST4, standard deviation of SST4, standard deviation of CHL and standard deviation of PIC. Global vector auto-regressive (VAR) model showed that SST4 was a statistical cause of global fishery capture. To accommodate varying conditions in fishery condition and influence of climate change variables, a model was constructed for each FAO major fishing area. From the management perspective it should be recognized some limitations of the FAO marine areas division that opens to possibility to the discussion of the subdivision of the areas into smaller units. Furthermore, it should be treated that the contribution changes of fishery species and the possible environment factor for specific species at various scale levels.

Keywords: fisheries-catch, FAO FishStatJ, MODIS Aqua, sea surface temperature (SST), chlorophyll, particulate inorganic carbon (PIC), particulate organic carbon (POC), VAR, granger causality

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Authors: Aemro Tazeze Terefe, Mengistu K. Aredo, Abule M. Workagegnehu, Wondimagegn M. Tesfaye

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Climate-induced shocks have been shown to reduce agricultural production and cause fluctuation in output in developing countries. When livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture, climate-induced shocks translate into consumption shocks. Despite the substantial improvements in household consumption, climate-induced shocks, and other factors adversely affect consumption dynamics at the household level in Ethiopia. Therefore, household consumption dynamics in the context of climate-induced shocks help to guide resilience capacity and establish appropriate interventions and programs. The research employed three-round panel data based on the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with spatial rainfall data to define unique measures of rainfall variability. The linear dynamic panel model results show that the lagged value of consumption, market shocks, and rainfall variability positively affected consumption dynamics. In contrast, production shocks, temperature, and amount of rainfall had a negative relationship. Coping strategies mitigate adverse climate-induced shocks on consumption aftershocks that smooth consumption over time. Support to increase the resilience capacity of households can involve efforts to make existing livelihoods and forms of production or reductions in the vulnerability of households. Therefore, government interventions are mandatory for asset accumulation agendas that support household coping strategies and respond to shocks. In addition, the dynamic linkage between consumption and significant socioeconomic and institutional factors should be taken into account to minimize the effect of climate-induced shocks on consumption dynamics.

Keywords: climate shock, Ethiopia, fixed-effect model, food security

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Authors: Pei-Chih Wu, Hsin-Chih Lai, Yung-Lung Lee, Yun-Yao Chi, Ching-Yi Horng, Hsien-Chang Wang

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The impact of climate change to health has always been well documented. Amongst them, water-borne infectious diseases, chronic adverse effects or cancer risks due to chemical contamination in flooding or drought events are especially important in river basin. This study therefore utilizes GIS and different models to integrate demographic, land use, disaster prevention, social-economic factors, and human health assessment in the Erren River basin. Therefore, through the collecting of climatic, demographic, health surveillance, water quality and other water monitoring data, potential risks associated with the Erren River Basin are established and to understand human exposure and vulnerability in response to climate extremes. This study assesses the temporal and spatial patterns of melioidosis (2000-2015) and various cancer incidents in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities. The next step is to analyze the spatial association between diseases incidences, climatic factors, land uses, and other demographic factors by using ArcMap and GeoDa. The study results show that amongst all melioidosis cases in Taiwan, 24% cases (115) residence occurred in the Erren River basin. The relationship between the cases and in Tainan and Kaohsiung cities are associated with population density, aging indicator, and residence in Erren River basin. Risks from flooding due to heavy rainfall and fish farms in spatial lag regression are also related. Through liver cancer, the preliminary analysis in temporal and spatial pattern shows an increases pattern in annual incidence without clusters in Erren River basin. Further analysis of potential cancers connected to heavy metal contamination from water pollution in Erren River is established. The final step is to develop an assessment tool for human exposure from water contamination and vulnerability in response to climate extremes for the second year.

Keywords: climate change, health impact, health adaptation, Erren River Basin

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Authors: Bobuchi Ken-Opurum

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The impacts of climate change on urban settlements is growing. In the global south, communities are even more vulnerable and suffer there is an increased vulnerability from due to climate change disasters such as flooding and high temperatures. This is primarily due to high intensity rainfall, low-lying coasts, inadequate infrastructure, and limited resources. According to the Emergency Events Database, floods were the leading cause of disaster -based deaths in the global south between 2006 and 2015. This includes deaths from heat stress related health outcomes. Adapting to climate vulnerabilities is paramount in reducing the significant redevelopment costs from climate disasters. Governments and urban planners provide top-down approaches such as evacuation, and disaster and emergency communication. While they address infrastructure and public services, they are not always able to address the immediate and critical day to day needs of poor and vulnerable populations. There is growing evidence that some bottom-up strategies and grassroots initiatives of self-build housing such as in urban informal settlements are successful in coping and adapting to hydroclimatic impacts. However, these research findings are not consolidated and the evaluation of the resilience outcomes of the bottom-up strategies are limited. Using self-build housing as a model for sustainable and resilient urban planning, this research aimed to consolidate the flood and heat stress resilient design solutions, analyze the effectiveness of these solutions, and develop guidelines and methods for adopting these design solutions into mainstream housing in megathermal climates. The methodological approach comprised of analyses of over 40 ethnographic based peer reviewed literature, white papers, and reports between the years 2000 and 2019 to identify coping strategies and grassroots initiatives that have been applied by occupants and communities of the global south. The results of the research provide a consolidated source and prioritized list of the best bottom-up strategies for communities in megathermal climates to improve the lives of people in some of the most vulnerable places in the world.

Keywords: resilient, design, megathermal, climate change

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Authors: Ouabo Emmanuel Romaric, Amougou Armathe

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Background and aim: The study of impacts of floods and landslides at a small scale, specifically in the urban areas of developing countries is done to provide tools and actors for a better management of risks in such areas, which are now being affected by climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the hydrometeorological vulnerabilities associated with flooding and urban landslides to propose adaptation measures. Methods: Climatic data analyses were done by calculation of indices of climate change within 50 years (1960-2012). Analyses of field data to determine causes, the level of risk and its consequences on the area of study was carried out using SPSS 18 software. The cartographic analysis and GIS were used to refine the work in space. Then, spatial and terrain analyses were carried out to determine the morphology of field in relation with floods and landslide, and the diffusion on the field. Results: The interannual changes in precipitation has highlighted the surplus years (21), the deficit years (24) and normal years (7). Barakat method bring out evolution of precipitation by jerks and jumps. Floods and landslides are correlated to high precipitation during surplus and normal years. Data field analyses show that populations are conscious (78%) of the risks with 74% of them exposed, but their capacities of adaptation is very low (51%). Floods are the main risk. The soils are classed as feralitic (80%), hydromorphic (15%) and raw mineral (5%). Slope variation (5% to 15%) of small hills and deep valley with anarchic construction favor flood and landslide during heavy precipitation. Mismanagement of waste produce blocks free circulation of river and accentuate floods. Conclusion: Vulnerability of population to hydrometeorological risks in Yaoundé VI is the combination of variation of parameters like precipitation, temperature due to climate change, and the bad planning of construction in urban areas. Because of lack of channels for water to circulate due to saturation of soils, the increase of heavy precipitation and mismanagement of waste, the result are floods and landslides which causes many damages on goods and people.

Keywords: climate change, floods, hydrometeorological, vulnerability

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Authors: R. Niranchana, K. Meena Alias Jeyanthi

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As a result of the present climate change dilemma, the energy balancing strategy is to construct a sustainable environment has become a top concern for researchers worldwide. The environment itself has always been a solution from the earliest days of human evolution. Carbon capture begins with its accurate estimation and monitoring credit inventories, and its efficient use. Sustainable urban planning with deliverables of re-use energy models might benefit from assessment methods like biomass carbon credit ranking. The term "biomass energy" refers to the various ways in which living organisms can potentially be converted into a source of energy. The approaches that can be applied to biomass and an algorithm for evaluating carbon credits are presented in this paper. The micro-climate evaluation using Computational Fluid dynamics was carried out across the location (1 km x1 km) at Dindigul, India (10°24'58.68" North, 77°54.1.80 East). Sustainable Urban design must be carried out considering environmental and physiological convection, conduction, radiation and evaporative heat exchange due to proceeding solar access and wind intensities.

Keywords: biomass, climate assessment, urban planning, multi-regression, carbon estimation algorithm

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Authors: Gadisa Demie, Mesele Negash, Zerihun Asrat, Lojka Bohdan

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Deforestation and forest degradation in the tropics have led to significant carbon (C) emissions. Agroforestry (AF) is a suitable land-use option for tackling such declines in ecosystem services, including climate change mitigation. However, it is unclear how biomass models, AF practices, and socio-ecological factors determine these roles, which hinders the implementation of climate change mitigation initiatives. This study aimed to estimate the ecosystem C stocks of the studied AF practices in relation to socio-ecological variables in central Ethiopia. Out of 243 AF farms inventoried, 108 were chosen at random from three AF practices to estimate their biomass and soil organic carbon. A total of 432 soil samples were collected from 0–30 and 30–60 cm soil depths; 216 samples were taken for each soil organic carbon fraction (%C) and bulk density computation. The study found that the currently developed allometric equations were the most accurate to estimate biomass C for trees growing in the landscape when compared to previous models. The study found higher overall biomass C in woodlots (165.62 Mg ha-¹) than in homegardens (134.07 Mg ha-¹) and parklands (19.98 Mg ha-¹). Conversely, overall, SOC was higher for homegardens (143.88 Mg ha-¹), but lower for parklands (53.42 Mg ha-¹). The ecosystem C stock was comparable between homegardens (277.95 Mg ha-¹) and woodlots (275.44 Mg ha-¹). The study found that elevation, wealthy levels, AF farm age, and size have a positive and significant (P < 0.05) effect on overall biomass and ecosystem C stocks but non-significant with slope (P > 0.05). Similarly, SOC increased with increasing elevation, AF farm age, and wealthy status but decreased with slope and non-significant with AF farm size. The study also showed that species diversity had a positive (P <0.05) effect on overall biomass C stocks in homegardens. The overall study highlights that AF practices have a great potential to lock up more carbon in biomass and soils; however, these potentials were determined by socioecological variables. Thus, these factors should be considered in management strategies that preserve trees in agricultural landscapes in order to mitigate climate change and support the livelihoods of farmers.

Keywords: agricultural landscape, biomass, climate change, soil organic carbon

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Authors: Dibakar Sahoo, Sridevi Gummadi

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The focus of the study is to empirically analyse the climatic impacts on foodgrain yield and its variability across seasons and altitudes in Odisha, one of the most vulnerable states in India. The study uses Just-Pope Stochastic Production function by using two-step Feasible Generalized Least Square (FGLS): mean equation estimation and variance equation estimation. The study uses the panel data on foodgrain yield, rainfall and temperature for 13 districts during the period 1984-2013. The study considers four seasons: winter (December-February), summer (March-May), Rainy (June-September) and autumn (October-November). The districts under consideration have been categorized under three altitude regions such as low (< 70 masl), middle (153-305 masl) and high (>305 masl) altitudes. The results show that an increase in the standard deviations of monthly rainfall during rainy and autumn seasons have an adversely significant impact on the mean yield of foodgrains in Odisha. The summer temperature has beneficial effects by significantly increasing mean yield as the summer season is associated with harvesting stage of Rabi crops. The changing pattern of temperature has increasing effect on the yield variability of foodgrains during the summer season, whereas it has a decreasing effect on yield variability of foodgrains during the Rainy season. Moreover, the positive expected signs of trend variable in both mean and variance equation suggests that foodgrain yield and its variability increases with time. On the other hand, a change in mean levels of rainfall and temperature during different seasons has heterogeneous impacts either harmful or beneficial depending on the altitudes. These findings imply that adaptation strategies should be tailor-made to minimize the adverse impacts of climate change and variability for sustainable development across seasons and altitudes in Odisha agriculture.

Keywords: altitude, adaptation strategies, climate change, foodgrain

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Rafael Haag, Elton Rossini

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This work aims to validate and make the projections of solar energy for the Brazilian period from 2025 to 2100. As the plants designed by the HadGEM2-AO (Global Hadley Model 2 - Atmosphere) General Circulation Model UK Met Office Hadley Center, belonging to Phase 5 of the Intercomparison of Coupled Models (CMIP5). The simulation results of the model are compared with monthly data from 2006 to 2013, measured by a network of meteorological sections of the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET). The performance of HadGEM2-AO is evaluated by the efficiency coefficient (CEF) and bias. The results are shown in the table of maps and maps. HadGEM2-AO, in the most pessimistic scenario, RCP 8.5 had a very good accuracy, presenting efficiency coefficients between 0.94 and 0.98, the perfect setting being Solar radiation, which indicates a horizontal trend, is a climatic alternative for some regions of the Brazilian scenario, especially in spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, scenarios climate change

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Authors: Salahaeddine Sbai

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Air quality analysis using machine learning models is a method employed to assess and predict air pollution levels. This approach leverages the capabilities of machine learning algorithms to analyze vast amounts of air quality data and extract valuable insights. By training these models on historical air quality data, they can learn patterns and relationships between various factors such as weather conditions, pollutant emissions, and geographical features. The trained models can then be used to predict air quality levels in real-time or forecast future pollution levels. This application of machine learning in air quality analysis enables policymakers, environmental agencies, and the general public to make informed decisions regarding health, environmental impact, and mitigation strategies. By understanding the factors influencing air quality, interventions can be implemented to reduce pollution levels, mitigate health risks, and enhance overall air quality management. Climate change is having significant impacts on Morocco, affecting various aspects of the country's environment, economy, and society. In this study, we use some machine learning models under python environment to predict and analysis air quality change over North of Morocco to evaluate the climate change impact on agriculture.

Keywords: air quality, machine learning models, pollution, pollutant emissions

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Authors: Eleni Stefania Kalapoda

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Recurring heat waves due to the global climate change emergency pose continuous risks to human health and urban resources. Local and state decision-makers incorporate Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs) to quantify and map the relative impact on human health in emergencies. These maps enable government officials to identify the highest-risk districts and to concentrate emergency planning efforts and available resources accordingly (e.g., to reevaluate the location and the number of heat-relief centers). Even though the framework of conducting an HVI is unique per municipality, its accuracy in assessing the heat risk is limited. To resolve this issue, varied housing-related metrics should be included. This paper quantifies and classifies NYC’s single detached housing typology within high-vulnerable NYC districts using detailed energy simulations and post-processing calculations. The results show that the variation in indoor heat risk depends significantly on the dwelling’s design/operation characteristics, concluding that low-ventilated dwellings are the most vulnerable ones. Also, it confirmed that when building-level determinants of exposure are excluded from the assessment, HVI fails to capture important components of heat vulnerability. Lastly, the overall vulnerability ratio of the housing units was calculated between 0.11 to 1.6 indoor heat degrees in terms of ventilation and shading capacity, insulation degree, and other building attributes.

Keywords: heat vulnerability index, energy efficiency, urban heat, resiliency to heat, climate adaptation, climate mitigation, building energy

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Authors: Denvi Giovanita, Wustari L. H. Mangundjaya

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The pace of globalization and technological development make changes inevitable to organizations. However, organizational change is not easy to implement and is prone to failure. One of the reasons of change failure is due to lack of employees’ commitment to change. There are many variables that can influence employees’ commitment to change. The influencing factors can be sourced from the organization or individuals themselves. This study focuses on the affective form of commitment to change. The objective of this study is to identify the effect of transformational leadership (organizational factor) and employees’ change self-efficacy (individual factor) on affective commitment to change. The respondents of this study were employees who work in organizations that are or have faced organizational change. The data were collected using Affective Commitment to Change, Change Self-Efficacy, and Transformational Leadership Inventory. The data were analyzed using regression. The result showed that both transformational leadership and change self-efficacy have a positive and significant impact on affective commitment to change. The implication of the study can be used for practitioners to enhance the success of organizational change, by developing transformational leadership on the leaders and change self-efficacy on the employees in order to create a high affective commitment to change.

Keywords: affective commitment to change, change self-efficacy, organizational change, transformational leadership

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Warda Ajaz

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This study uses the ‘Community Capitals Framework’ (CCF) to develop a community resilience index that can serve as a useful tool for measuring resilience of communities in diverse contexts and backgrounds. CCF is an important analytical tool to assess holistic community change. This framework identifies seven major types of community capitals: natural, cultural, human, social, political, financial and built, and claims that the communities that have been successful in supporting healthy sustainable community and economic development have paid attention to all these capitals. The framework, therefore, proposes to study the community development through identification of assets in these major capitals (stock), investment in these capitals (flow), and the interaction between these capitals. Capital based approaches have been extensively used to assess community resilience, especially in the context of natural disasters and extreme events. Therefore, this study identifies key indicators for estimating each of the seven capitals through an extensive literature review and then develops an index to calculate a community resilience score. The CCF-based community resilience index presents an innovative way of operationalizing the concept of community resilience and will contribute toward decision-relevant research regarding adaptation and mitigation of community vulnerabilities to climate change-induced, as well as other adverse events.

Keywords: adverse events, community capitals, community resilience, climate change, economic development, sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 267

Authors: Kuo Chieh Chao, Thishani Amarathunga, Sangam Shrestha

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Rainfall induced slope failures are one of the most damaging and disastrous natural hazards which occur frequently in the world. This type of sliding mainly occurs in the zone above the groundwater level in silty/sandy soils. When the rainwater begins to infiltrate into the vadose zone of the soil, the negative pore-water pressure tends to decrease and reduce the shear strength of soil material. Climate change has resulted in excessive and unpredictable rainfall in all around the world, resulting in landslides with dire consequences to human lives and infrastructure. Such problems could be overcome by examining in detail the causes for such slope failures and recommending effective repair plans for vulnerable locations by considering future climatic change. The selected area for this study is located in the road rehabilitation section from Maubara to Mota Ain road in Timor-Leste. Slope failures and cracks have occurred in 2013 and after repairs reoccurred again in 2017 subsequent to heavy rains. Both observed and future predicted climate data analyses were conducted to understand the severe precipitation conditions in past and future. Observed climate data were collected from NOAA global climate data portal. CORDEX data portal was used to collect Regional Climate Model (RCM) future predicted climate data. Both observed and RCM data were extracted to location-based data using ArcGIS Software. Linear scaling method was used for the bias correction of future data and bias corrected climate data were assigned to GeoStudio Software. Precipitations of wet seasons (December to March ) in 2007 to 2013 is higher than 2001-2006 period and it is more than nearly 40% higher precipitation than usual monthly average precipitation of 160mm.The results of seepage analyses which were carried out using SEEP/W model with observed climate, clearly demonstrated that the pore water pressure within the fill slope was significantly increased due to the increase of the infiltration during the wet season of 2013.One main Regional Climate Models (RCM) was analyzed in order to predict future climate variation under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).In the projected period of 76 years ahead from 2014, shows that the amount of precipitation is considerably getting higher in the future in both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. Critical pore water pressure conditions during 2014-2090 were used in order to recommend appropriate remediation methods. Results of slope stability analyses indicated that the factor of safety of the fill slopes was reduced from 1.226 to 0.793 during the dry season to wet season in 2013.Results of future slope stability which were obtained using SLOPE/W model for the RCP emissions scenarios depict that, the use of tieback anchors and geogrids in slope protection could be effective in increasing the stability of slopes to an acceptable level during the wet seasons. Moreover, methods and procedures like monitoring of slopes showing signs or susceptible for movement and installing surface protections could be used to increase the stability of slopes.

Keywords: climate change, precipitation, SEEP/W, SLOPE/W, unsaturated soil

Procedia PDF Downloads 136

Authors: Safieh Javadinejad

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In order to make well-informed decisions respecting long-term system planning, resource managers and policy creators necessitate to comprehend the interconnections among energy and water utilization and manufacture—and also the energy-water nexus. Planning and assessment issues contain the enhancement of strategies for declining the water and energy system’s vulnerabilities to climate alteration with also emissions of decreasing greenhouse gas. In order to deliver beneficial decision support for climate adjustment policy and planning, understanding the regionally-specific features of the energy-water nexus, and the history-future of the water and energy source systems serving is essential. It will be helpful for decision makers understand the nature of current water-energy system conditions and capacity for adaptation plans for future. This research shows an integrated hydrology/energy modeling platform which is able to extend water-energy examines based on a detailed illustration of local circumstances. The modeling links the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) and the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP) system to create full picture of water-energy processes. This will allow water managers and policy-decision makers to simply understand links between energy system improvements and hydrological processing and realize how future climate change will effect on water-energy systems. The Zayandeh Rud river basin in Iran is selected as a case study to show the results and application of the analysis. This region is known as an area with large integration of both the electric power and water sectors. The linkages between water, energy and climate change and possible adaptation strategies are described along with early insights from applications of the integration modeling system.

Keywords: climate impacts, hydrology, water systems, adaptation planning, electricity, integrated modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Thimma Reddy Pothireddy, Ramesh Srikonda

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India is prone to natural disasters such as Floods, droughts, cyclones, earthquakes and landslides frequently due to its geographical considerations. It has become a persistent phenomenon as observed in last ten decades. The recent survey indicates that about 60% of the landmass is prone to earthquakes of various intensities with reference to Richard scale, over 40 million hectares is prone to floods; about 8% of the total area is prone to cyclones and 68% of the area is vulnerable to drought. Climate change is likely to be perceived through the experience of extreme weather events. There is growing societal concern about climate change, given the potential impacts of associated natural hazards such as cyclones, flooding, earthquakes, landslides etc. The recent natural calamities such as Cyclone Hudhud had crossed the land at Northern cost of AP, Vishakapatanam on 12 Oct’2014 with a wind speed ranging between 175 – 200 kmph and the records show that the tidal waves were reached to the height of 14mts and above; and it alarms us to have critical focus on planning issues so as to find appropriate solutions. The existing condition is effective is in terms of institutional set up along with responsive management mechanism of disaster mitigation but considerations at settlement planning level to allow mitigation operations are not adequate. This paper deals to understand the response to climate change will possibly happen through adaptation to climate hazards and essential to work out an appropriate mechanism and disaster receptive settlement planning for responding to natural (and climate-related) calamities particularly to cyclones and floods. The statistics indicate that 40 million hectares flood prone (5% of area), and 1853 kmts of cyclone prone coastal length in India so it is essential and crucial to have appropriate physical planning considerations to improve preparedness and to operate mitigation measures effectively to minimize the loss and damage. Vijayawada capital region which is susceptible to cyclonic and floods has been studied with respect to trajectory analysis to work out risk vulnerability and to integrated disaster mitigation physical planning considerations.

Keywords: meta analysis, vulnerability index, physical planning, trajectories

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Chao Jen-Chih, Hsu Kuo-Wei

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Climate change and natural disasters take effect on urban development. It has been discussed urban renewals can prevent natural disasters. Integrating green infrastructure and urban renewals may have great effect on adapting the impact of climate change. To highlight the economic value of green infrastructure development on urban renewals, some strategies need to be carry on to reduce environmental impact. A number of urban renewals studies has been conducted on right transfer, financial risk, urban renewal policy, and public participation. Little research has been devoted on the subject of the economic value of green infrastructure development on urban renewals. The purpose of this study is to investigate the affecting factors on the economic value of green infrastructure development on urban renewals. This study will present the benefits of green infrastructure development and summarize the critical factors of green infrastructure develop on urban renewals for real essence and non-real essence on economic value from literature. Our results indicate that factors of housing price, land value, floor area incentive, and facilitation of the construction industry affect the outcome of real essence economic value. Factors of enhancement of urban disaster prevention, improvement of urban environment and landscape, crime reduction, climate control, pollution reduction, biological diversity, health impacts, and leisure space affects the outcome of non-real essence economic value.

Keywords: economic value, green infrastructure, urban renewals, urban development

Procedia PDF Downloads 419

Authors: Khawla Askri, Mohamed Haythem Msaddek, AbdelAziz Sebei

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Climate change combined with the increase in anthropogenic activities will affect coastal groundwater systems around the world and, more particularly, the Cap Bon region in the North East of Tunisia. This study aims to study the impact of climate change and human stress on the salinization and quantification of groundwater in the Wadi Chiba watershed. In this regard, a hydro-climatological study and a hydrogeological study were carried out based on the characterization of the aquifer system of the eastern coast at the level of the watershed of Wadi Chiba in order to seek to identify, first of all, the degradation of the state of the aquifer on the quantitative level by the study of the piezometric and its evolution over time. Secondly, we sought to identify the degradation of the state of the aquifer qualitatively by using the geochemical method, in particular the major elements, to assess the mineralization of the aquifer water and understand its hydrogeochemical functioning. The study of the Na + / Cl- and Ca2 + / Mg2 + chemical relationships confirmed the presence of a marine intrusion downstream of the Wadi Chiba watershed northeast of Cap-Bon accompanied by a piezometric depression. For this purpose, we proceeded to: 1) Mapping of both piezometric data and salinity. 2) The interpretation of the mapping results. 3)Identification of the origin of the localized deterioration in the quality of the aquifer water. Finally, the analysis of the results showed that the scarcity of water is already forcing human actions in the Chiba watershed due to the irrigation of agricultural lands and the overexploitation of the water table in the study area.

Keywords: climate change, human activities, water table, Wadi Chiba watershed, piezometric depression, marine intrusion

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Muthmainah Mufidah, Wustari L. H. Mangundjaya

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Organizations nowadays have to change and adjust themselves to the changing external environment in order to survive the globalization era. However, not all the organizational change had been succeeded. Commitment to change is one important factor why the change process often failed. Even so, this commitment to change cannot be separated with the individual’s characteristic. The aim of this study is to identify the role of psychological capital and psychological empowerment as the individual’s positive characteristic on commitment to change. This research was conducted on Indonesian employees who have or are currently experiencing a change in their organization. Data was collected using Commitment to Change Inventory, Psychological Empowerment Questionnaire, and Psychological Capital Questionnaire. The results showed that both psychological capital and psychological empowerment have a positive and significant influence on commitment to change.

Keywords: commitment to change, psychological capital, psychological empowerment, organizational change

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

Abstract:

Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

Procedia PDF Downloads 364