Search results for: performance prism model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 25956

Search results for: performance prism model

20976 Feedback of an Automated Hospital about the Performance of an Automated Drug Dispensing System’s Implementation

Authors: Bouami Hind, Millot Patrick

Abstract:

The implementation of automated devices in life-critical systems such as hospitals can bring a new set of challenges related to automation malfunctions. While automation has been identified as great leverage for the medication dispensing system’s security and efficiency, it also increases the complexity of the organization. In particular, the installation and operation stage of automated devices can be complex when malfunctions related to automated systems occur. This paper aims to document operators’ situation awareness about the malfunctions of automated drug delivery systems (ADCs) during their implementation through Saint Brieuc hospital’s feedback. Our evaluation approach has been deployed in Saint Brieuc hospital center’s pharmacy, which has been equipped with automated nominative drug dispensing systems since January of 2021. The analysis of Saint Brieuc hospital center pharmacy’s automation revealed numerous malfunctions related to the implementation of Automated Delivery Cabinets. It appears that the targeted performance is not reached in the first year of implementation in this case study. Also, errors have been collected in patients' automated treatments’ production such as lack of drugs in pill boxes or nominative carnets, excess of drugs, wrong location of the drug, drug blister damaged, non-compliant sachet, or ticket errors. Saint Brieuc hospital center’s pharmacy is doing a tremendous job of setting up and monitoring performance indicators from the beginning of automation and throughout ADC’s operation to control ADC’s malfunctions and meet the performance targeted by the hospital. Health professionals, including pharmacists, biomedical engineers and directors of work, technical services and safety, are heavily involved in an automation project. This study highlights the importance of the evaluation of ADCs’ performance throughout the implementation process and the hospital’s team involvement in automation supervision and management.

Keywords: life-critical systems, situation awareness, automated delivery cabinets, implementation, risks and malfunctions

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20975 Predicting of Hydrate Deposition in Loading and Offloading Flowlines of Marine CNG Systems

Authors: Esam I. Jassim

Abstract:

The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate the prediction of the model capability of predicting the nucleation process, the growth rate, and the deposition potential of second phase particles in gas flowlines. The primary objective of the research is to predict the risk hazards involved in the marine transportation of compressed natural gas. However, the proposed model can be equally used for other applications including production and transportation of natural gas in any high-pressure flow-line. The proposed model employs the following three main components to approach the problem: computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique is used to configure the flow field; the nucleation model is developed and incorporated in the simulation to predict the incipient hydrate particles size and growth rate; and the deposition of the gas/particle flow is proposed using the concept of the particle deposition velocity. These components are integrated in a comprehended model to locate the hydrate deposition in natural gas flowlines. The present research is prepared to foresee the deposition location of solid particles that could occur in a real application in Compressed Natural Gas loading and offloading. A pipeline with 120 m length and different sizes carried a natural gas is taken in the study. The location of particle deposition formed as a result of restriction is determined based on the procedure mentioned earlier and the effect of water content and downstream pressure is studied. The critical flow speed that prevents such particle to accumulate in the certain pipe length is also addressed.

Keywords: hydrate deposition, compressed natural gas, marine transportation, oceanography

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20974 The Staff Performance Efficiency of the Faculty of Management Science, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University

Authors: Nipawan Tharasak, Ladda Hirunyava

Abstract:

The objective of the research was to study factors affecting working efficiency and the relationship between working environment, satisfaction to human resources management and operation employees’ working efficiency of Faculty of Management Science, Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University. The sample size of the research was based on 33 employees of Faculty of Management Science. The researcher had classified the support employees into 4 divisions by using Stratified Random Sampling. Individual sample was randomized by using Simple Random Sampling. Data was collected through the instrument. The Statistical Package for the Windows was utilized for data processing. Percentage, mean, standard deviation, the t-test, One-way ANOVA, and Pearson product moment correlation coefficient were applied. The result found the support employees’ satisfaction in human resources management of Faculty of Management Science in following areas: remuneration; employee recruitment & selection; manpower planning; performance evaluation; staff training & developing; and spirit & fairness were overall in good level.

Keywords: faculty of management science, operational factors, practice performance, staff working

Procedia PDF Downloads 219
20973 Performance Assessment of Three Unit Redundant System with Environmental and Human Failure Using Copula Approach

Authors: V. V. Singh

Abstract:

We have studied the reliability measures of a system, which consists of two subsystems i.e. subsystem-1 and subsystem-2 in series configuration under different types of failure. The subsystem-1 has three identical units in parallel configuration and operating under 2-out-of-3: G policy and connected to subsystem-2 in series configuration. Each subsystem has different types of failure and repair rates. An important cause for failure of system is unsuitability of the environmental conditions, like overheating, weather conditions, heavy rainfall, storm etc. The environmental failure is taken into account in the proposed repairable system. Supplementary variable technique is used to study of system and some traditional measures such as; availability, reliability, MTTF and profit function are obtained for different values of parameters. In the proposed model, some particular cases of failure rates are explicitly studied.

Keywords: environmental failure, human failure, availability, MTTF, reliability, profit analysis, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula

Procedia PDF Downloads 338
20972 Detection Characteristics of the Random and Deterministic Signals in Antenna Arrays

Authors: Olesya Bolkhovskaya, Alexey Davydov, Alexander Maltsev

Abstract:

In this paper approach to incoherent signal detection in multi-element antenna array are researched and modeled. Two types of useful signals with unknown wavefront were considered. First one is deterministic (Barker code), the second one is random (Gaussian distribution). The derivation of the sufficient statistics took into account the linearity of the antenna array. The performance characteristics and detecting curves are modeled and compared for different useful signals parameters and for different number of elements of the antenna array. Results of researches in case of some additional conditions can be applied to a digital communications systems.

Keywords: antenna array, detection curves, performance characteristics, quadrature processing, signal detection

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20971 Attitude towards Doping of High-Performance Athletes in a Sports Institute of the City of Medellin, Colombia

Authors: Yuban Sebastian Cuartas-Agudelo, Sandra Marcela López-Hincapié, Vivianna Alexandra Garrido-Altamar, María de los Ángeles Rodríguez-Gázquez, Camilo Ruiz-Mejía, Lina María Martínez-Sánchez, Gloria Inés Martínez-Domínguez, Luis Eduardo Contreras, Felipe Eduardo Marino-Isaza

Abstract:

Introduction: Doping is a prohibited practice in competitive sports with potential adverse effects; therefore, it is crucial to describe the attitudes of athletes towards this behavior and to determine which o these increase the susceptibility to carry out this practice. Objective: To determine the attitude of high-performance athletes towards doping in a sports institute in the city of Medellin, Colombia. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study during 2016, with a sample taken to convenience consisting of athletes over 18 years old enrolled in a sports institute of the city of Medellin (Colombia). The athletes filled by themselves the Petroczi and Aidman questionnaire: Performance Enhancement Attitude Scale (PEAS) adapted to the Spanish language by Morente-Sánchez et al. This scale has 17 items with likert answer options, with a score ranging from 1 to 6, with a higher score indicating a stronger tendency towards doping practices. Results: 112 athletes were included with an average age of 21.6 years old, a 60% of them were male and the most frequent sports were karate 17%, judo 12.5% and athletics 9.8%. The average score of the questionnaire was 35.5 points of a 102 possible points. The lowest score was obtained in the following items: Is Doping necessary 1,4 and Doping isn’t cheating, everyone does it 1,5. Conclusion: In our population, there is a low tendency towards doping practices.

Keywords: sports, doping in sports, athletic performance, attitude

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20970 A 3-Dimensional Memory-Based Model for Planning Working Postures Reaching Specific Area with Postural Constraints

Authors: Minho Lee, Donghyun Back, Jaemoon Jung, Woojin Park

Abstract:

The current 3-dimensional (3D) posture prediction models commonly provide only a few optimal postures to achieve a specific objective. The problem with such models is that they are incapable of rapidly providing several optimal posture candidates according to various situations. In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a 3D memory-based posture planning (3D MBPP) model, which is a new digital human model that can analyze the feasible postures in 3D space for reaching tasks that have postural constraints and specific reaching space. The 3D MBPP model can be applied to the types of works that are done with constrained working postures and have specific reaching space. The examples of such works include driving an excavator, driving automobiles, painting buildings, working at an office, pitching/batting, and boxing. For these types of works, a limited amount of space is required to store all of the feasible postures, as the hand reaches boundary can be determined prior to perform the task. This prevents computation time from increasing exponentially, which has been one of the major drawbacks of memory-based posture planning model in 3D space. This paper validates the utility of 3D MBPP model using a practical example of analyzing baseball batting posture. In baseball, batters swing with both feet fixed to the ground. This motion is appropriate for use with the 3D MBPP model since the player must try to hit the ball when the ball is located inside the strike zone (a limited area) in a constrained posture. The results from the analysis showed that the stored and the optimal postures vary depending on the ball’s flying path, the hitting location, the batter’s body size, and the batting objective. These results can be used to establish the optimal postural strategies for achieving the batting objective and performing effective hitting. The 3D MBPP model can also be applied to various domains to determine the optimal postural strategies and improve worker comfort.

Keywords: baseball, memory-based, posture prediction, reaching area, 3D digital human models

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20969 Modeling Intention to Use 3PL Services: An Application of the Theory of Planned Behavior

Authors: Nasrin Akter, Prem Chhetri, Shams Rahman

Abstract:

The present study tested Ajzen’s Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) model to explain the formation of business customers’ intention to use 3PL services in Bangladesh. The findings show that the TPB model has a good fit to the data. Based on theoretical support and suggested modification indices, a refined TPB model was developed afterwards which provides a better predictive power for intention. Consistent with the theory, the results of a structural equation analysis revealed that the intention to use 3PL services is predicted by attitude and subjective norms but not by perceived behavioral control. Further investigation indicated that the paths between (attitude and intention) and (subjective norms and intention) did not statistically differ between 3PL user and non-user. Findings of this research provide an evidence base to formulate business strategies to increase the use of 3PL services in Bangladesh to enhance productivity and to gain economic efficiency.

Keywords: Bangladesh, intention, third-party logistics, Theory of Planned Behavior

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20968 The Effect of Soil-Structure Interaction on the Post-Earthquake Fire Performance of Structures

Authors: A. T. Al-Isawi, P. E. F. Collins

Abstract:

The behaviour of structures exposed to fire after an earthquake is not a new area of engineering research, but there remain a number of areas where further work is required. Such areas relate to the way in which seismic excitation is applied to a structure, taking into account the effect of soil-structure interaction (SSI) and the method of analysis, in addition to identifying the excitation load properties. The selection of earthquake data input for use in nonlinear analysis and the method of analysis are still challenging issues. Thus, realistic artificial ground motion input data must be developed to certify that site properties parameters adequately describe the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the system and that the characteristics of these parameters are coherent with the characteristics of the target parameters. Conversely, ignoring the significance of some attributes, such as frequency content, soil site properties and earthquake parameters may lead to misleading results, due to the misinterpretation of required input data and the incorrect synthesise of analysis hypothesis. This paper presents a study of the post-earthquake fire (PEF) performance of a multi-storey steel-framed building resting on soft clay, taking into account the effects of the nonlinear inelastic behaviour of the structure and soil, and the soil-structure interaction (SSI). Structures subjected to an earthquake may experience various levels of damage; the geometrical damage, which indicates the change in the initial structure’s geometry due to the residual deformation as a result of plastic behaviour, and the mechanical damage which identifies the degradation of the mechanical properties of the structural elements involved in the plastic range of deformation. Consequently, the structure presumably experiences partial structural damage but is then exposed to fire under its new residual material properties, which may result in building failure caused by a decrease in fire resistance. This scenario would be more complicated if SSI was also considered. Indeed, most earthquake design codes ignore the probability of PEF as well as the effect that SSI has on the behaviour of structures, in order to simplify the analysis procedure. Therefore, the design of structures based on existing codes which neglect the importance of PEF and SSI can create a significant risk of structural failure. In order to examine the criteria for the behaviour of a structure under PEF conditions, a two-dimensional nonlinear elasto-plastic model is developed using ABAQUS software; the effects of SSI are included. Both geometrical and mechanical damages have been taken into account after the earthquake analysis step. For comparison, an identical model is also created, which does not include the effects of soil-structure interaction. It is shown that damage to structural elements is underestimated if SSI is not included in the analysis, and the maximum percentage reduction in fire resistance is detected in the case when SSI is included in the scenario. The results are validated using the literature.

Keywords: Abaqus Software, Finite Element Analysis, post-earthquake fire, seismic analysis, soil-structure interaction

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20967 Study on Shifting Properties of CVT Rubber V-belt

Authors: Natsuki Tsuda, Kiyotaka Obunai, Kazuya Okubo, Hideyuki Tashiro, Yoshinori Yamaji, Hideyuki Kato

Abstract:

The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of belt stiffness on the performance of the CVT unit, such as the required pulley thrust force and the ratio coverage. The CVT unit consists of the V-grooved pulleys and the rubber CVT belt. The width of the driving pulley groove was controlled by the stepper motor, while that of the driven pulley was controlled by the hydraulic pressure. The generated mechanical power on the motor was transmitted from the driving axis to the driven axis through the CVT unit. The rotational speed and the transmitting torque of both axes were measured by the tachometers and the torque meters attached with these axes, respectively. The transmitted, mechanical power was absorbed by the magnetic powder brake. The thrust force acting on both pulleys and the force between both shafts were measured by the load cell. The back face profile of the rubber CVT belt along with width direction was measured by the 2-dimensional laser displacement meter. This paper found that when the stiffness of the rubber CVT belt in the belt width direction was reduced, the thrust force required for shifting was reduced. Moreover, when the stiffness of the rubber CVT belt in the belt width direction was reduced, the ratio coverage of the CVT unit was reduced. Due to the decrement of stiffness in belt width direction, the excessive concave deformation of belt in pulley groove was confirmed. Because of this excessive concave deformation, apparent wrapping radius of belt would have been reduced. Proposed model could be effectively estimated the difference of ratio coverage due to concave deformation. The proposed model could also be utilized for designing the rubber CVT belt with optimal bending stiffness in width direction.

Keywords: CVT, countinuously variable transmission, rubber, belt stiffness, transmission

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20966 Degradation of Irradiated UO2 Fuel Thermal Conductivity Calculated by FRAPCON Model Due to Porosity Evolution at High Burn-Up

Authors: B. Roostaii, H. Kazeminejad, S. Khakshournia

Abstract:

The evolution of volume porosity previously obtained by using the existing low temperature high burn-up gaseous swelling model with progressive recrystallization for UO2 fuel is utilized to study the degradation of irradiated UO2 thermal conductivity calculated by the FRAPCON model of thermal conductivity. A porosity correction factor is developed based on the assumption that the fuel morphology is a three-phase type, consisting of the as-fabricated pores and pores due to intergranular bubbles whitin UO2 matrix and solid fission products. The predicted thermal conductivity demonstrates an additional degradation of 27% due to porosity formation at burn-up levels around 120 MWd/kgU which would cause an increase in the fuel temperature accordingly. Results of the calculations are compared with available data.

Keywords: irradiation-induced recrystallization, matrix swelling, porosity evolution, UO₂ thermal conductivity

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20965 High Performance Wood Shear Walls and Dissipative Anchors for Damage Limitation

Authors: Vera Wilden, Benno Hoffmeister, Georgios Balaskas, Lukas Rauber, Burkhard Walter

Abstract:

Light-weight timber frame elements represent an efficient structural solution for wooden multistory buildings. The wall elements of such buildings – which act as shear diaphragms- provide lateral stiffness and resistance to wind and seismic loads. The tendency towards multi-story structures leads to challenges regarding the prediction of stiffness, strength and ductility of the buildings. Lightweight timber frame elements are built up of several structural parts (sheeting, fasteners, frame, support and anchorages); each of them contributing to the dynamic response of the structure. This contribution describes the experimental and numerical investigation and development of enhanced lightweight timber frame buildings. These developments comprise high-performance timber frame walls with the variable arrangements of sheathing planes and dissipative anchors at the base of the timber buildings, which reduce damages to the timber structure and can be exchanged after significant earthquakes. In order to prove the performance of the developed elements in the context of a real building a full-scale two-story building core was designed and erected in the laboratory and tested experimentally for its seismic performance. The results of the tests and a comparison of the test results to the predicted behavior are presented. Observation during the test also reveals some aspects of the design and details which need to consider in the application of the timber walls in the context of the complete building.

Keywords: dissipative anchoring, full scale test, push-over-test, wood shear walls

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20964 Hygro-Thermal Modelling of Timber Decks

Authors: Stefania Fortino, Petr Hradil, Timo Avikainen

Abstract:

Timber bridges have an excellent environmental performance, are economical, relatively easy to build and can have a long service life. However, the durability of these bridges is the main problem because of their exposure to outdoor climate conditions. The moisture content accumulated in wood for long periods, in combination with certain temperatures, may cause conditions suitable for timber decay. In addition, moisture content variations affect the structural integrity, serviceability and loading capacity of timber bridges. Therefore, the monitoring of the moisture content in wood is important for the durability of the material but also for the whole superstructure. The measurements obtained by the usual sensor-based techniques provide hygro-thermal data only in specific locations of the wood components. In this context, the monitoring can be assisted by numerical modelling to get more information on the hygro-thermal response of the bridges. This work presents a hygro-thermal model based on a multi-phase moisture transport theory to predict the distribution of moisture content, relative humidity and temperature in wood. Below the fibre saturation point, the multi-phase theory simulates three phenomena in cellular wood during moisture transfer, i.e., the diffusion of water vapour in the pores, the sorption of bound water and the diffusion of bound water in the cell walls. In the multi-phase model, the two water phases are separated, and the coupling between them is defined through a sorption rate. Furthermore, an average between the temperature-dependent adsorption and desorption isotherms is used. In previous works by some of the authors, this approach was found very suitable to study the moisture transport in uncoated and coated stress-laminated timber decks. Compared to previous works, the hygro-thermal fluxes on the external surfaces include the influence of the absorbed solar radiation during the time and consequently, the temperatures on the surfaces exposed to the sun are higher. This affects the whole hygro-thermal response of the timber component. The multi-phase model, implemented in a user subroutine of Abaqus FEM code, provides the distribution of the moisture content, the temperature and the relative humidity in a volume of the timber deck. As a case study, the hygro-thermal data in wood are collected from the ongoing monitoring of the stress-laminated timber deck of Tapiola Bridge in Finland, based on integrated humidity-temperature sensors and the numerical results are found in good agreement with the measurements. The proposed model, used to assist the monitoring, can contribute to reducing the maintenance costs of bridges, as well as the cost of instrumentation, and increase safety.

Keywords: moisture content, multi-phase models, solar radiation, timber decks, FEM

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20963 Optimizing Pavement Construction Procedures in the Southern Desert of Libya

Authors: Khlifa El Atrash, Gabriel Assaf

Abstract:

Libya uses a volumetric analysis in designing asphalt mixtures, which can also be upgraded in hot, arid weather. However, in order to be effective, it should include many important aspects which are materials, environment, and method of construction. However, the quality of some roads was below a satisfactory level. This paper examines the factors that contribute to low quality of road performance in Libya. To evaluate these factors, a questionnaire survey and a laboratory comparative study were performed for a few mixes under-represented of temperature and traffic load. In laboratory, rutting test conducted on two different asphalt mixture, these mixes included, an asphalt concrete mix using local aggregate and asphalt binder B(60/70) at the optimum Marshall asphalt content, another mixes designed using Superpave design procedure with the same materials and performance asphalt binder grade PG (70-10). In the survey, the questionnaire was distributed to 55 engineers and specialists in this field. The interview was conducted to a few others, and the factors that were leading to poor performance of asphalt roads were listed as; 1) Owner Experience and technical staff 2) Asphalt characteristics 3) Updating and development of Asphalt Mix Design methods 4) Lack of data collection by authorization Agency 5) Construction and compaction process 6) Mentoring and controlling mixing procedure. Considering and improving these factors will play an important role to improve the pavement performances, longer service life, and lower maintenance costs. This research summarized some recommendations for making asphalt mixtures used in hot, dry areas. Such asphalt mixtures should use asphalt binder which is less affected by pavement temperature change and traffic load. The properties of the mixture, such as durability, deformation, air voids, and performance, largely depend on the type of materials, environment, and mixing method. These properties, in turn, affect the pavement performance.

Keywords: volumetric analysis, pavement performances, hot climate, traffic load, pavement temperature, asphalt mixture, environment, design and construction

Procedia PDF Downloads 246
20962 Evaluating Electronic Service Quality in Banking Iran

Authors: Vahid Bairami Rad

Abstract:

With the rapid growth of the Internet and the globalization of the market, most enterprises are trying to attract and win customers in the highly competitive electronic market. Better e-service quality will enhance the relationship with customers and their satisfaction. So the measurement of eservice quality is very important but it is a complex process due to the complex nature of services. Literature predicts that there is a lack of universal definition of e-service quality. The e-service quality measures in banking have great importance in achieving high customer base. This paper proposes a conceptual model for measuring e-service quality in Iranian Banking Iran. Nine dimensions reliability, ease of use, personalization, security and trust, website aesthetic, responsiveness, contact and speed of delivery had been identified. The results of this paper may help to develop a proper scale to measure the e-service quality in Iranian Banking Industry, which may assist to maintain and improve the performance and effectiveness of e-service quality to retain customers.

Keywords: electronic banking, Dimensions, customer service quality, electronic, communication

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20961 Determinants of Self-Reported Hunger: An Ordered Probit Model with Sample Selection Approach

Authors: Brian W. Mandikiana

Abstract:

Homestead food production has the potential to alleviate hunger, improve health and nutrition for children and adults. This article examines the relationship between self-reported hunger and homestead food production using the ordered probit model. A sample of households participating in homestead food production was drawn from the first wave of the South African National Income Dynamics Survey, a nationally representative cross-section. The sample selection problem was corrected using an ordered probit model with sample selection approach. The findings show that homestead food production exerts a positive and significant impact on children and adults’ ability to cope with hunger and malnutrition. Yet, on the contrary, potential gains of homestead food production are threatened by shocks such as crop failure.

Keywords: agriculture, hunger, nutrition, sample selection

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20960 Design, Development and Analysis of Combined Darrieus and Savonius Wind Turbine

Authors: Ashish Bhattarai, Bishnu Bhatta, Hem Raj Joshi, Nabin Neupane, Pankaj Yadav

Abstract:

This report concerns the design, development, and analysis of the combined Darrieus and Savonius wind turbine. Vertical Axis Wind Turbines (VAWT's) are of two type's viz. Darrieus (lift type) and Savonius (drag type). The problem associated with Darrieus is the lack of self-starting while Savonius has low efficiency. There are 3 straight Darrieus blades having the cross-section of NACA(National Advisory Committee of Aeronautics) 0018 placed circumferentially and a helically twisted Savonius blade to get even torque distribution. This unique design allows the use of Savonius as a method of self-starting the wind turbine, which the Darrieus cannot achieve on its own. All the parts of the wind turbine are designed in CAD software, and simulation data were obtained via CFD(Computational Fluid Dynamics) approach. Also, the design was imported to FlashForge Finder to 3D print the wind turbine profile and finally, testing was carried out. The plastic material used for Savonius was ABS(Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene) and that for Darrieus was PLA(Polylactic Acid). From the data obtained experimentally, the hybrid VAWT so fabricated has been found to operate at the low cut-in speed of 3 m/s and maximum power output has been found to be 7.5537 watts at the wind speed of 6 m/s. The maximum rpm of the rotor blade is recorded to be 431 rpm(rotation per minute) at the wind velocity of 6 m/s, signifying its potentiality of wind power production. Besides, the data so obtained from both the process when analyzed through graph plots has shown the similar nature slope wise. Also, the difference between the experimental and theoretical data obtained has shown mechanical losses. The objective is to eliminate the need for external motors for self-starting purposes and study the performance of the model. The testing of the model was carried out for different wind velocities.

Keywords: VAWT, Darrieus, Savonius, helical blades, CFD, flash forge finder, ABS, PLA

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20959 Objective-Based System Dynamics Modeling to Forecast the Number of Health Professionals in Pudong New Area of Shanghai

Authors: Jie Ji, Jing Xu, Yuehong Zhuang, Xiangqing Kang, Ying Qian, Ping Zhou, Di Xue

Abstract:

Background: In 2014, there were 28,341 health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai and the number per 1000 population was 5.199, 55.55% higher than that in 2006. But it was always less than the average number of health professionals per 1000 population in Shanghai from 2006 to 2014. Therefore, allocation planning for the health professionals in Pudong new area has become a high priority task in order to meet the future demands of health care. In this study, we constructed an objective-based system dynamics model to forecast the number of health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai in 2020. Methods: We collected the data from health statistics reports and previous survey of human resources in Pudong new area of Shanghai. Nine experts, who were from health administrative departments, public hospitals and community health service centers, were consulted to estimate the current and future status of nine variables used in the system dynamics model. Based on the objective of the number of health professionals per 1000 population (8.0) in Shanghai for 2020, the system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed to forecast the number of health professionals needed in Pudong new area in 2020. Results: The system dynamics model for health professionals in Pudong new area of Shanghai was constructed. The model forecasted that there will be 37,330 health professionals (6.433 per 1000 population) in 2020. If the success rate of health professional recruitment changed from 20% to 70%, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.919. If this rate changed from 20% to 70% and the success rate of building new beds changed from 5% to 30% at the same time, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would be changed from 5.269 to 6.923. Conclusions: The system dynamics model could be used to simulate and forecast the health professionals. But, if there were no significant changes in health policies and management system, the number of health professionals per 1000 population would not reach the objectives in Pudong new area in 2020.

Keywords: allocation planning, forecast, health professional, system dynamics

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20958 A Preliminary Study of the Subcontractor Evaluation System for the International Construction Market

Authors: Hochan Seok, Woosik Jang, Seung-Heon Han

Abstract:

The stagnant global construction market has intensified competition since 2008 among firms that aim to win overseas contracts. Against this backdrop, subcontractor selection is identified as one of the most critical success factors in overseas construction project. However, it is difficult to select qualified subcontractors due to the lack of evaluation standards and reliability. This study aims to identify the problems associated with existing subcontractor evaluations using a correlations analysis and a multiple regression analysis with pre-qualification and performance evaluation of 121 firms in six countries.

Keywords: subcontractor evaluation system, pre-qualification, performance evaluation, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis

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20957 Numerical Simulation of Phase Transfer during Cryosurgery for an Irregular Tumor Using Hybrid Approach

Authors: Rama Bhargava

Abstract:

In the current paper, numerical simulation has been performed for the two-dimensional time dependent Pennes’ heat transfer model which is solved for irregular diseased tumor cells. An elliptic cryoprobe of varying sizes is taken at the center of the computational domain in such a manner that the location of the probe is fixed throughout the computation. The phase transition occurs due to the effect of probe with infusion of different nanoparticles Au, Al₂O₃, Fe₃O₄. The cooling performance of these nanoparticles injected at very low temperature, has been studied by implementing a hybrid FEM/EFGM method in which the whole domain is decomposed into two subdomains. The results are shown in terms of temperature profile inside the computational domain. Rate of cooling is obtained for various nanoparticles and it is observed that infusion of Au nanoparticles is very much efficient in increasing the heating rate than other nanoparticles. Such numerical scheme has direct applications where the domain is irregular.

Keywords: cryosurgery, hybrid EFGM/FEM, nanoparticles, simulation

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20956 Modeling and Optimal Control of Hybrid Unmanned Aerial Vehicles with Wind Disturbance

Authors: Sunsoo Kim, Niladri Das, Raktim Bhattacharya

Abstract:

This paper addresses modeling and control of a six-degree-of-freedom unmanned aerial vehicle capable of vertical take-off and landing in the presence of wind disturbances. We design a hybrid vehicle that combines the benefits of both the fixed-wing and the rotary-wing UAVs. A non-linear model for the hybrid vehicle is rapidly built, combining rigid body dynamics, aerodynamics of wing, and dynamics of the motor and propeller. Further, we design a H₂ optimal controller to make the UAV robust to wind disturbances. We compare its results against that of proportional-integral-derivative and linear-quadratic regulator based control. Our proposed controller results in better performance in terms of root mean squared errors and time responses during two scenarios: hover and level- flight.

Keywords: hybrid UAVs, VTOL, aircraft modeling, H2 optimal control, wind disturbances

Procedia PDF Downloads 138
20955 A Model of Teacher Leadership in History Instruction

Authors: Poramatdha Chutimant

Abstract:

The objective of the research was to propose a model of teacher leadership in history instruction for utilization. Everett M. Rogers’ Diffusion of Innovations Theory is applied as theoretical framework. Qualitative method is to be used in the study, and the interview protocol used as an instrument to collect primary data from best practices who awarded by Office of National Education Commission (ONEC). Open-end questions will be used in interview protocol in order to gather the various data. Then, information according to international context of history instruction is the secondary data used to support in the summarizing process (Content Analysis). Dendrogram is a key to interpret and synthesize the primary data. Thus, secondary data comes as the supportive issue in explanation and elaboration. In-depth interview is to be used to collected information from seven experts in educational field. The focal point is to validate a draft model in term of future utilization finally.

Keywords: history study, nationalism, patriotism, responsible citizenship, teacher leadership

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20954 GIS Application in Surface Runoff Estimation for Upper Klang River Basin, Malaysia

Authors: Suzana Ramli, Wardah Tahir

Abstract:

Estimation of surface runoff depth is a vital part in any rainfall-runoff modeling. It leads to stream flow calculation and later predicts flood occurrences. GIS (Geographic Information System) is an advanced and opposite tool used in simulating hydrological model due to its realistic application on topography. The paper discusses on calculation of surface runoff depth for two selected events by using GIS with Curve Number method for Upper Klang River basin. GIS enables maps intersection between soil type and land use that later produces curve number map. The results show good correlation between simulated and observed values with more than 0.7 of R2. Acceptable performance of statistical measurements namely mean error, absolute mean error, RMSE, and bias are also deduced in the paper.

Keywords: surface runoff, geographic information system, curve number method, environment

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20953 Experimental Modeling of Spray and Water Sheet Formation Due to Wave Interactions with Vertical and Slant Bow-Shaped Model

Authors: Armin Bodaghkhani, Bruce Colbourne, Yuri S. Muzychka

Abstract:

The process of spray-cloud formation and flow kinematics produced from breaking wave impact on vertical and slant lab-scale bow-shaped models were experimentally investigated. Bubble Image Velocimetry (BIV) and Image Processing (IP) techniques were applied to study the various types of wave-model impacts. Different wave characteristics were generated in a tow tank to investigate the effects of wave characteristics, such as wave phase velocity, wave steepness on droplet velocities, and behavior of the process of spray cloud formation. The phase ensemble-averaged vertical velocity and turbulent intensity were computed. A high-speed camera and diffused LED backlights were utilized to capture images for further post processing. Various pressure sensors and capacitive wave probes were used to measure the wave impact pressure and the free surface profile at different locations of the model and wave-tank, respectively. Droplet sizes and velocities were measured using BIV and IP techniques to trace bubbles and droplets in order to measure their velocities and sizes by correlating the texture in these images. The impact pressure and droplet size distributions were compared to several previously experimental models, and satisfactory agreements were achieved. The distribution of droplets in front of both models are demonstrated. Due to the highly transient process of spray formation, the drag coefficient for several stages of this transient displacement for various droplet size ranges and different Reynolds number were calculated based on the ensemble average method. From the experimental results, the slant model produces less spray in comparison with the vertical model, and the droplet velocities generated from the wave impact with the slant model have a lower velocity as compared with the vertical model.

Keywords: spray charachteristics, droplet size and velocity, wave-body interactions, bubble image velocimetry, image processing

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
20952 Estimation and Forecasting with a Quantile AR Model for Financial Returns

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

This talk presents a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. We establish that the joint posterior distribution of the model parameters and future values is well defined. The associated MCMC algorithm for parameter estimation and forecasting converges to the posterior distribution quickly. We also present a combining forecasts technique to produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts by using a weighted sequence of fitted QAR models. A moving window method to check the quality of the estimated conditional quantiles is developed. We verify our methodology using simulation studies and then apply it to currency exchange rate data. An application of the method to the USD to GBP daily currency exchange rates will also be discussed. The results obtained show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, quantile modelling, quantile forecasting, predictive density functions

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
20951 Compartmental Model Approach for Dosimetric Calculations of ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC in Adenocarcinoma Breast Cancer Based on Animal Data

Authors: M. S. Mousavi-Daramoroudi, H. Yousefnia, S. Zolghadri, F. Abbasi-Davani

Abstract:

Dosimetry is an indispensable and precious factor in patient treatment planning; to minimize the absorbed dose in vital tissues. In this study, In accordance with the proper characteristics of DOTATOC and ¹⁷⁷Lu, after preparing ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC at the optimal conditions for the first time in Iran, radionuclidic and radiochemical purity of the solution was investigated using an HPGe spectrometer and ITLC method, respectively. The biodistribution of the compound was assayed for treatment of adenocarcinoma breast cancer in bearing BALB/c mice. The results have demonstrated that ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC is a profitable selection for therapy of the tumors. Because of the vital role of internal dosimetry before and during therapy, the effort to improve the accuracy and rapidity of dosimetric calculations is necessary. For this reason, a new method was accomplished to calculate the absorbed dose through mixing between compartmental model, animal dosimetry and extrapolated data from animal to human and using MIRD method. Despite utilization of compartmental model based on the experimental data, it seems this approach may increase the accuracy of dosimetric data, confidently.

Keywords: ¹⁷⁷Lu-DOTATOC, biodistribution modeling, compartmental model, internal dosimetry

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20950 Using Time Series NDVI to Model Land Cover Change: A Case Study in the Berg River Catchment Area, Western Cape, South Africa

Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

Abstract:

This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

Procedia PDF Downloads 384
20949 Mean-Field Type Modeling of Non-Local Congestion in Pedestrian Crowd Dynamics

Authors: Alexander Aurell

Abstract:

One of the latest trends in the modeling of human crowds is the mean-field game approach. In the mean-field game approach, the motion of a human crowd is described by a nonstandard stochastic optimal control problem. It is nonstandard since congestion is considered, introduced through a dependence in the performance functional on the distribution of the crowd. This study extends the class of mean-field pedestrian crowd models to allow for non-local congestion and arbitrary, but finitely, many interacting crowds. The new congestion feature grants pedestrians a 'personal space' where crowding is undesirable. The model is treated as a mean-field type game which is derived from a particle picture. This, in contrast to a mean-field game, better describes a situation where the crowd can be controlled by a central planner. The latter is suitable for decentralized situations. Solutions to the mean-field type game are characterized via a Pontryagin-type Maximum Principle.

Keywords: congestion, crowd dynamics, interacting populations, mean-field approximation, optimal control

Procedia PDF Downloads 430
20948 Lean Thinking and E-Commerce as New Opportunities to Improve Partnership in Supply Chain of Construction Industries

Authors: Kaustav Kundu, Alberto Portioli Staudacher

Abstract:

Construction industry plays a vital role in the economy of the world. But due to high uncertainty and variability in the industry, its performance is not as efficient in terms of quality, lead times, productivity and costs as of other industries. Moreover, there are continuous conflicts among the different actors in the construction supply chains in terms of profit sharing. Previous studies suggested partnership as an important approach to promote cooperation among the different actors in the construction supply chains and thereby it improves the overall performance. Construction practitioners tried to focus on partnership which can enhance the performance of construction supply chains but they are not fully aware of different approaches and techniques for improving partnership. In this research, a systematic review on partnership in relation to construction supply chains is carried out to understand different elements influencing the partnership. The research development of this domain is analyzed by reviewing selected articles published from 1996 to 2015. Based on the papers, three major elements influencing partnership in construction supply chains are identified: “Lean approach”, “Relationship building” and “E-commerce applications”. This study analyses the contributions in the areas within each element and provides suggestions for future developments of partnership in construction supply chains.

Keywords: partnership, construction, lean, SCM, supply chain management

Procedia PDF Downloads 417
20947 A Prediction Model Using the Price Cyclicality Function Optimized for Algorithmic Trading in Financial Market

Authors: Cristian Păuna

Abstract:

After the widespread release of electronic trading, automated trading systems have become a significant part of the business intelligence system of any modern financial investment company. An important part of the trades is made completely automatically today by computers using mathematical algorithms. The trading decisions are taken almost instantly by logical models and the orders are sent by low-latency automatic systems. This paper will present a real-time price prediction methodology designed especially for algorithmic trading. Based on the price cyclicality function, the methodology revealed will generate price cyclicality bands to predict the optimal levels for the entries and exits. In order to automate the trading decisions, the cyclicality bands will generate automated trading signals. We have found that the model can be used with good results to predict the changes in market behavior. Using these predictions, the model can automatically adapt the trading signals in real-time to maximize the trading results. The paper will reveal the methodology to optimize and implement this model in automated trading systems. After tests, it is proved that this methodology can be applied with good efficiency in different timeframes. Real trading results will be also displayed and analyzed in order to qualify the methodology and to compare it with other models. As a conclusion, it was found that the price prediction model using the price cyclicality function is a reliable trading methodology for algorithmic trading in the financial market.

Keywords: algorithmic trading, automated trading systems, financial markets, high-frequency trading, price prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 170