Search results for: structural equation model
20291 A Fully Automated New-Fangled VESTAL to Label Vertebrae and Intervertebral Discs
Authors: R. Srinivas, K. V. Ramana
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This paper presents a novel method called VESTAL to label vertebrae and inter vertebral discs. Each vertebra has certain statistical features properties. To label vertebrae and discs, a new equation to model the path of spinal cord is derived using statistical properties of the spinal canal. VESTAL uses this equation for labeling vertebrae and discs. For each vertebrae and inter vertebral discs both posterior, interior width, height are measured. The calculated values are compared with real values which are measured using venires calipers and the comparison produced 95% efficiency and accurate results. The VESTAL is applied on 50 patients 350 MR images and obtained 100% accuracy in labeling.Keywords: spine, vertebrae, inter vertebral disc, labeling, statistics, texture, disc
Procedia PDF Downloads 36320290 Large Time Asymptotic Behavior to Solutions of a Forced Burgers Equation
Authors: Satyanarayana Engu, Ahmed Mohd, V. Murugan
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We study the large time asymptotics of solutions to the Cauchy problem for a forced Burgers equation (FBE) with the initial data, which is continuous and summable on R. For which, we first derive explicit solutions of FBE assuming a different class of initial data in terms of Hermite polynomials. Later, by violating this assumption we prove the existence of a solution to the considered Cauchy problem. Finally, we give an asymptotic approximate solution and establish that the error will be of order O(t^(-1/2)) with respect to L^p -norm, where 1≤p≤∞, for large time.Keywords: Burgers equation, Cole-Hopf transformation, Hermite polynomials, large time asymptotics
Procedia PDF Downloads 33420289 Structural Analysis of an Active Morphing Wing for Enhancing UAV Performance
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A numerical study of a design concept for actively controlling wing twist is described in this paper. The concept consists of morphing elements which were designed to provide a rigid and seamless skin while maintaining structural rigidity. The wing structure is first modeled in CATIA V5 then imported into ANSYS for structural analysis. Athena Vortex Lattice method (AVL) is used to estimate aerodynamic response as well as aerodynamic loads of morphing wings, afterwards a structural optimization performed via ANSYS Static. Overall, the results presented in this paper show that the concept provides efficient wing twist while preserving an aerodynamically smooth and compliant surface. Sufficient structural rigidity in bending is also obtained. This concept is suggested as a possible alternative for morphing skin applications.Keywords: aircraft, morphing, skin, twist
Procedia PDF Downloads 39620288 A Comparison of the Adsorption Mechanism of Arsenic on Iron-Modified Nanoclays
Authors: Michael Leo L. Dela Cruz, Khryslyn G. Arano, Eden May B. Dela Pena, Leslie Joy Diaz
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Arsenic adsorbents were continuously being researched to ease the detrimental impact of arsenic to human health. A comparative study on the adsorption mechanism of arsenic on iron modified nanoclays was undertaken. Iron intercalated montmorillonite (Fe-MMT) and montmorillonite supported zero-valent iron (ZVI-MMT) were the adsorbents investigated in this study. Fe-MMT was produced through ion-exchange by replacing the sodium intercalated ions in montmorillonite with iron (III) ions. The iron (III) in Fe-MMT was later reduced to zero valent iron producing ZVI-MMT. Adsorption study was performed by batch technique. Obtained data were fitted to intra-particle diffusion, pseudo-first order, and pseudo-second-order models and the Elovich equation to determine the kinetics of adsorption. The adsorption of arsenic on Fe-MMT followed the intra-particle diffusion model with intra-particle rate constant of 0.27 mg/g-min0.5. Arsenic was found to be chemically bound on ZVI-MMT as suggested by the pseudo-second order and Elovich equation. The derived pseudo-second order rate constant was 0.0027 g/mg-min with initial adsorption rate computed from the Elovich equation was 113 mg/g-min.Keywords: adsorption mechanism, arsenic, montmorillonite, zero valent iron
Procedia PDF Downloads 41520287 Modeling of Nitrogen Solubility in Stainless Steel
Authors: Saeed Ghali, Hoda El-Faramawy, Mamdouh Eissa, Michael Mishreky
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Scale-resistant austenitic stainless steel, X45CrNiW 18-9, has been developed, and modified steels produced through partial and total nickel replacement by nitrogen. These modified steels were produced in a 10 kg induction furnace under different nitrogen pressures and were cast into ingots. The produced modified stainless steels were forged, followed by air cooling. The phases of modified stainless steels have been investigated using the Schaeffler diagram, dilatometer, and microstructure observations. Both partial and total replacement of nickel using 0.33-0.50% nitrogen are effective in producing fully austenitic stainless steels. The nitrogen contents were determined and compared with those calculated using the Institute of Metal Science (IMS) equation. The results showed great deviations between the actual nitrogen contents and predicted values through IMS equation. So, an equation has been derived based on chemical composition, pressure, and temperature at 1600oC. [N%] = 0.0078 + 0.0406*X, where X is a function of chemical composition and nitrogen pressure. The derived equation has been used to calculate the nitrogen content of different steels using published data. The results reveal the difficulty of deriving a general equation for the prediction of nitrogen content covering different steel compositions. So, it is necessary to use a narrow composition range.Keywords: solubility, nitrogen, stainless steel, Schaeffler
Procedia PDF Downloads 23820286 System Identification of Building Structures with Continuous Modeling
Authors: Ruichong Zhang, Fadi Sawaged, Lotfi Gargab
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This paper introduces a wave-based approach for system identification of high-rise building structures with a pair of seismic recordings, which can be used to evaluate structural integrity and detect damage in post-earthquake structural condition assessment. The fundamental of the approach is based on wave features of generalized impulse and frequency response functions (GIRF and GFRF), i.e., wave responses at one structural location to an impulsive motion at another reference location in time and frequency domains respectively. With a pair of seismic recordings at the two locations, GFRF is obtainable as Fourier spectral ratio of the two recordings, and GIRF is then found with the inverse Fourier transformation of GFRF. With an appropriate continuous model for the structure, a closed-form solution of GFRF, and subsequent GIRF, can also be found in terms of wave transmission and reflection coefficients, which are related to structural physical properties above the impulse location. Matching the two sets of GFRF and/or GIRF from recordings and the model helps identify structural parameters such as wave velocity or shear modulus. For illustration, this study examines ten-story Millikan Library in Pasadena, California with recordings of Yorba Linda earthquake of September 3, 2002. The building is modelled as piecewise continuous layers, with which GFRF is derived as function of such building parameters as impedance, cross-sectional area, and damping. GIRF can then be found in closed form for some special cases and numerically in general. Not only does this study reveal the influential factors of building parameters in wave features of GIRF and GRFR, it also shows some system-identification results, which are consistent with other vibration- and wave-based results. Finally, this paper discusses the effectiveness of the proposed model in system identification.Keywords: wave-based approach, seismic responses of buildings, wave propagation in structures, construction
Procedia PDF Downloads 23320285 Moment-Curvature Relation for Nonlinear Analysis of Slender Structural Walls
Authors: E. Dehghan, R. Dehghan
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Generally, the slender structural walls have flexural behavior. Since behavior of bending members can be explained by moment–curvature relation, therefore, an analytical model is proposed based on moment–curvature relation for slender structural walls. The moment–curvature relationships of RC sections are constructed through section analysis. Governing equations describing the bond-slip behavior in walls are derived and applied to moment–curvature relations. For the purpose of removing the imprecision in analytical results, the plastic hinge length is included in the finite element modeling. Finally, correlation studies between analytical and experimental results are conducted with the objective to establish the validity of the proposed algorithms. The results show that bond-slip effect is more significant in walls subjected to larger axial compression load. Moreover, preferable results are obtained when ultimate strain of concrete is assumed conservatively.Keywords: nonlinear analysis, slender structural walls, moment-curvature relation, bond-slip, plastic hinge length
Procedia PDF Downloads 31720284 Structural Performance of a Bridge Pier on Dubious Deep Foundation
Authors: Víctor Cecilio, Roberto Gómez, J. Alberto Escobar, Héctor Guerrero
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The study of the structural behavior of a support/pier of an elevated viaduct in Mexico City is presented. Detection of foundation piles with uncertain integrity prompted the review of possible situations that could jeopardy the structural safety of the pier. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the structural conditions of the support, taking into account the type of anomaly reported and the depth at which it is located, the position of the pile with uncertain integrity in the foundation system, the stratigraphy of the surrounding soil and the geometry and structural characteristics of the pier. To carry out the above, dynamic analysis, spectral modal, and step-by-step, with elastic and inelastic material models, were performed. Results were evaluated in accordance with the standards used for the design of the original structural project and with the Construction Regulations for Mexico’s Federal District (RCDF-2017, 2017). Comments on the response of the analyzed models are issued, and the conclusions are presented from a structural point of view.Keywords: dynamic analysis, inelastic models, dubious foundation, bridge pier
Procedia PDF Downloads 13720283 Electricity Demand Modeling and Forecasting in Singapore
Authors: Xian Li, Qing-Guo Wang, Jiangshuai Huang, Jidong Liu, Ming Yu, Tan Kok Poh
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In power industry, accurate electricity demand forecasting for a certain leading time is important for system operation and control, etc. In this paper, we investigate the modeling and forecasting of Singapore’s electricity demand. Several standard models, such as HWT exponential smoothing model, the ARMA model and the ANNs model have been proposed based on historical demand data. We applied them to Singapore electricity market and proposed three refinements based on simulation to improve the modeling accuracy. Compared with existing models, our refined model can produce better forecasting accuracy. It is demonstrated in the simulation that by adding forecasting error into the forecasting equation, the modeling accuracy could be improved greatly.Keywords: power industry, electricity demand, modeling, forecasting
Procedia PDF Downloads 64020282 Resilience, Mental Health, and Life Satisfaction
Authors: Saba Harati, Nasrin Arian Parsa
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The current research was an attempt to investigate the effect of resilience on mental health and life satisfaction. In one Cross Sectional research, 287 (173 females and 114 males) students of Tehran University were participated their average age was 23.17 years old (SD=4.9). The instruments used for assessing the research variables included: Cutter and Davidson resilience scale (CD-RISC), the short form of the depression-anxiety-stress scale, and life satisfaction scale. The data analysis was done in the form of structural equation model. The results of Simultaneous Hierarchical Multiple Regression Analysis indicated that there was a significant mediating role of the negative emotions (depression, anxiety, and stress), in the relationship between the family resilience (p < 0.001) and satisfaction with life (p < 0.001). Resilience results in life satisfaction by reducing the emotional problems (or increasing the mental health level). The effect of the resilience variable on life satisfaction was indirect.Keywords: resilience, negative emotion, mental health, life satisfaction
Procedia PDF Downloads 49820281 Dynamics of Light Induced Current in 1D Coupled Quantum Dots
Authors: Tokuei Sako
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Laser-induced current in a quasi-one-dimensional nanostructure has been studied by a model of a few electrons confined in a 1D electrostatic potential coupled to electrodes at both ends and subjected to a pulsed laser field. The time-propagation of the one- and two-electron wave packets has been calculated by integrating the time-dependent Schrödinger equation directly by the symplectic integrator method with uniform Fourier grid. The temporal behavior of the resultant light-induced current in the studied systems has been discussed with respect to the lifetime of the quasi-bound states formed when the static bias voltage is applied.Keywords: pulsed laser field, nanowire, electron wave packet, quantum dots, time-dependent Schrödinger equation
Procedia PDF Downloads 35720280 Kou Jump Diffusion Model: An Application to the SP 500; Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 Index Options
Authors: Wajih Abbassi, Zouhaier Ben Khelifa
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The present research points towards the empirical validation of three options valuation models, the ad-hoc Black-Scholes model as proposed by Berkowitz (2001), the constant elasticity of variance model of Cox and Ross (1976) and the Kou jump-diffusion model (2002). Our empirical analysis has been conducted on a sample of 26,974 options written on three indexes, the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and the Russell 2000 that were negotiated during the year 2007 just before the sub-prime crisis. We start by presenting the theoretical foundations of the models of interest. Then we use the technique of trust-region-reflective algorithm to estimate the structural parameters of these models from cross-section of option prices. The empirical analysis shows the superiority of the Kou jump-diffusion model. This superiority arises from the ability of this model to portray the behavior of market participants and to be closest to the true distribution that characterizes the evolution of these indices. Indeed the double-exponential distribution covers three interesting properties that are: the leptokurtic feature, the memory less property and the psychological aspect of market participants. Numerous empirical studies have shown that markets tend to have both overreaction and under reaction over good and bad news respectively. Despite of these advantages there are not many empirical studies based on this model partly because probability distribution and option valuation formula are rather complicated. This paper is the first to have used the technique of nonlinear curve-fitting through the trust-region-reflective algorithm and cross-section options to estimate the structural parameters of the Kou jump-diffusion model.Keywords: jump-diffusion process, Kou model, Leptokurtic feature, trust-region-reflective algorithm, US index options
Procedia PDF Downloads 42920279 Minimum Ratio of Flexural Reinforcement for High Strength Concrete Beams
Authors: Azad A. Mohammed, Dunyazad K. Assi, Alan S. Abdulrahman
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Current ACI 318 Code provides two limits for minimum steel ratio for concrete beams. When concrete compressive strength be larger than 31 MPa the limit of √(fc')/4fy usually governs. In this paper shortcomings related to using this limit was fairly discussed and showed that the limit is based on 90% safety factor and was derived based on modulus of rupture equation suitable for concretes of compressive strength lower than 31 MPa. Accordingly, the limit is nor suitable and critical for concretes of higher compressive strength. An alternative equation was proposed for minimum steel ratio of rectangular beams and was found that the proposed limit is accurate for beams of wide range of concrete compressive strength. Shortcomings of the current ACI 318 Code equation and accuracy of the proposed equation were supported by test data obtained from testing six reinforced concrete beams.Keywords: concrete beam, compressive strength, minimum steel ratio, modulus of rupture
Procedia PDF Downloads 55220278 A Mediation Analysis of Social Capital: Direct and Indirect Effects of Community Influences on Civic Engagement among the Household-Header and Non-Household Header Volunteers in Thai Rural Communities
Authors: Aphiradee Wongsiri
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The purpose of this study is to investigate the role of social capital in the relationships between community influences consisting of community attachment and community support on civic engagement among the household-header and non-household header volunteers. The data were collected from 216 household header volunteers and 204 non-household header volunteers across rural communities in seven sub-districts in Nong Khai Province, Thailand. A good fit structural equation modeling (SEM) was tested for both groups. The findings indicate that the SEM model for the group of household header volunteers, social capital had a direct effect on civic engagement, while community support had an indirect effect on civic engagement through social capital. On the other hand, the SEM model for the group of non-household header volunteers shows that social capital had a direct effect on civic engagement. Also, community attachment and community support had indirect effects on civic engagement through social capital. Therefore, social capital in this study played an important role as a mediator in the relationships between community influences and civic engagement in both groups.Keywords: social capital, civic engagement, volunteer, rural development
Procedia PDF Downloads 12620277 Evaluation of Structural Integrity for Composite Lattice Structure
Authors: Jae Moon Im, Kwang Bok Shin, Sang Woo Lee
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In this paper, evaluation of structural integrity for composite lattice structure was conducted by compressive test. Composite lattice structure was manufactured by carbon fiber using filament winding method. In order to evaluate the structural integrity of composite lattice structure, compressive test was done using anti-buckling fixture. The delamination occurred 84 Tons of compressive load. It was found that composite lattice structure satisfied the design requirements.Keywords: composite material, compressive test, lattice structure, structural integrity
Procedia PDF Downloads 50220276 The Nexus between Social Media Usage and Overtourism: A Survey Study Applied to Hangzhou in China
Authors: Song Qingfeng
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This research aims to seek the relationship between social media usage and overtourism from the perspective of tourists based on the theory of Maslow’s hierarchy needs. A questionnaire is formulated to collect data from 400 tourists who have visited the Hangzhou city in China in the last 12 months. Structural Equation Model (SEM) is employed to analysis data. The finding is that social media usage aggravates overtourism. Specifically, social media is used by tourists to information-seeking, entertainment, self-presentation, and socialization for traveling. These roles of social media would evoke the traveling intention to a specific destination at a certain time, which further influences the tourist flow. When the tourist flow concentrate, the overtourism would be aggravated. This study contributes to the destination managers to deep-understand the cause-effect relationship between social media and overtourism in order to address this problem.Keywords: social media, overtourism, tourist flow, SEM, Maslow’s hierarchy of needs, Hangzhou
Procedia PDF Downloads 13520275 Numerical Computation of Generalized Rosenau Regularized Long-Wave Equation via B-Spline Over Butcher’s Fifth Order Runge-Kutta Approach
Authors: Guesh Simretab Gebremedhin, Saumya Rajan Jena
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In this work, a septic B-spline scheme has been used to simplify the process of solving an approximate solution of the generalized Rosenau-regularized long-wave equation (GR-RLWE) with initial boundary conditions. The resulting system of first-order ODEs has dealt with Butcher’s fifth order Runge-Kutta (BFRK) approach without using finite difference techniques for discretizing the time-dependent variables at each time level. Here, no transformation or any kind of linearization technique is employed to tackle the nonlinearity of the equation. Two test problems have been selected for numerical justifications and comparisons with other researchers on the basis of efficiency, accuracy, and results of the two invariants Mᵢ (mass) and Eᵢ (energy) of some motion that has been used to test the conservative properties of the proposed scheme.Keywords: septic B-spline scheme, Butcher's fifth order Runge-Kutta approach, error norms, generalized Rosenau-RLW equation
Procedia PDF Downloads 6620274 Multiple-Lump-Type Solutions of the 2D Toda Equation
Authors: Jian-Ping Yu, Wen-Xiu Ma, Yong-Li Sun, Chaudry Masood Khalique
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In this paper, a 2d Toda equation is studied, which is a classical integrable system and plays a vital role in mathematics, physics and other areas. New lump-type solution is constructed by using the Hirota bilinear method. One interesting feature of this research is that this lump-type solutions possesses two types of multiple-lump-type waves, which are one- and two-lump-type waves. Moreover, the corresponding 3d plots, density plots and contour plots are given to show the dynamical features of the obtained multiple-lump-type solutions.Keywords: 2d Toda equation, Hirota bilinear method, Lump-type solution, multiple-lump-type solution
Procedia PDF Downloads 22220273 Numerical Analysis of a Pilot Solar Chimney Power Plant
Authors: Ehsan Gholamalizadeh, Jae Dong Chung
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Solar chimney power plant is a feasible solar thermal system which produces electricity from the Sun. The objective of this study is to investigate buoyancy-driven flow and heat transfer through a built pilot solar chimney system called 'Kerman Project'. The system has a chimney with the height and diameter of 60 m and 3 m, respectively, and the average radius of its solar collector is about 20 m, and also its average collector height is about 2 m. A three-dimensional simulation was conducted to analyze the system, using computational fluid dynamics (CFD). In this model, radiative transfer equation was solved using the discrete ordinates (DO) radiation model taking into account a non-gray radiation behavior. In order to modelling solar irradiation from the sun’s rays, the solar ray tracing algorithm was coupled to the computation via a source term in the energy equation. The model was validated with comparing to the experimental data of the Manzanares prototype and also the performance of the built pilot system. Then, based on the numerical simulations, velocity and temperature distributions through the system, the temperature profile of the ground surface and the system performance were presented. The analysis accurately shows the flow and heat transfer characteristics through the pilot system and predicts its performance.Keywords: buoyancy-driven flow, computational fluid dynamics, heat transfer, renewable energy, solar chimney power plant
Procedia PDF Downloads 26220272 A Fishery Regulation Model: Bargaining over Fishing Pressure
Authors: Duplan Yves Jamont Junior
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The Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model widely used in labor economics is tailored to fishery. By this way, a fishing function is defined to depict the fishing technology, and Bellman equations are established to describe the behaviors of fishermen and conservationists. On this basis, a negotiation takes place as a Nash-bargaining over the upper limit of the fishing pressure between both political representative groups of fishermen and conservationists. The existence and uniqueness conditions of the Nash-bargained fishing pressure are established. Given the biomass evolution equation, the dynamics of the model variables (fishing pressure, biomass, fish need) is studied.Keywords: conservation, fishery, fishing, Nash bargaining
Procedia PDF Downloads 26020271 The Features of Formation of Russian Agriculture’s Sectoral Structure
Authors: Natalya G. Filimonova, Mariya G. Ozerova, Irina N. Ermakova
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The long-term strategy of the economic development of Russia up to 2030 is based on the concept of sustainable growth. The determining factor of such development is complex changes in the economic system which may be achieved by making progressive changes in its structure. The structural changes determine the character and the direction of economic development, as well as they include all elements of this system without exception, and their regulated character ensures the most rapid aim achievement. This article has discussed the industrial structure of the agriculture in Russia. With the use of the system of indexes, the article has determined the directions, intensity, and speed of structural shifts. The influence of structural changes on agricultural production development has been found out. It is noticed that the changes in the industrial structure are synchronized with the changes in the organisation and economic structure. Efficiency assessment of structural changes allowed to trace the efficiency of structural changes and elaborate the main directions for agricultural policy improvement.Keywords: Russian agricultural sectors, sectoral structure, organizational and economic structure, structural changes
Procedia PDF Downloads 17020270 Airline Choice Model for Domestic Flights: The Role of Airline Flexibility
Authors: Camila Amin-Puello, Lina Vasco-Diaz, Juan Ramirez-Arias, Claudia Munoz, Carlos Gonzalez-Calderon
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Operational flexibility is a fundamental aspect in the field of airlines because although demand is constantly changing, it is the duty of companies to provide a service to users that satisfies their needs in an efficient manner without sacrificing factors such as comfort, safety and other perception variables. The objective of this research is to understand the factors that describe and explain operational flexibility by implementing advanced analytical methods such as exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling, examining multiple levels of operational flexibility and understanding how these variable influences users' decision-making when choosing an airline and in turn how it affects the airlines themselves. The use of a hybrid model and latent variables improves the efficiency and accuracy of airline performance prediction in the unpredictable Colombian market. This pioneering study delves into traveler motivations and their impact on domestic flight demand, offering valuable insights to optimize resources and improve the overall traveler experience. Applying the methods, it was identified that low-cost airlines are not useful for flexibility, while users, especially women, found airlines with greater flexibility in terms of ticket costs and flight schedules to be more useful. All of this allows airlines to anticipate and adapt to their customers' needs efficiently: to plan flight capacity appropriately, adjust pricing strategies and improve the overall passenger experience.Keywords: hybrid choice model, airline, business travelers, domestic flights
Procedia PDF Downloads 1320269 Reliability Estimation of Bridge Structures with Updated Finite Element Models
Authors: Ekin Ozer
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Assessment of structural reliability is essential for efficient use of civil infrastructure which is subjected hazardous events. Dynamic analysis of finite element models is a commonly used tool to simulate structural behavior and estimate its performance accordingly. However, theoretical models purely based on preliminary assumptions and design drawings may deviate from the actual behavior of the structure. This study proposes up-to-date reliability estimation procedures which engages actual bridge vibration data modifying finite element models for finite element model updating and performing reliability estimation, accordingly. The proposed method utilizes vibration response measurements of bridge structures to identify modal parameters, then uses these parameters to calibrate finite element models which are originally based on design drawings. The proposed method does not only show that reliability estimation based on updated models differs from the original models, but also infer that non-updated models may overestimate the structural capacity.Keywords: earthquake engineering, engineering vibrations, reliability estimation, structural health monitoring
Procedia PDF Downloads 22320268 The Prediction of Effective Equation on Drivers' Behavioral Characteristics of Lane Changing
Authors: Khashayar Kazemzadeh, Mohammad Hanif Dasoomi
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According to the increasing volume of traffic, lane changing plays a crucial role in traffic flow. Lane changing in traffic depends on several factors including road geometrical design, speed, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, etc. A great deal of research has been carried out regarding these fields. Despite of the other significant factors, the drivers’ behavioral characteristics of lane changing has been emphasized in this paper. This paper has predicted the effective equation based on personal characteristics of lane changing by regression models.Keywords: effective equation, lane changing, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, regression models
Procedia PDF Downloads 45020267 Development of Standard Evaluation Technique for Car Carpet Floor
Authors: In-Sung Lee, Un-Hwan Park, Jun-Hyeok Heo, Tae-Hyeon Oh, Dae-Gyu Park
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Statistical Energy Analysis is to be the most effective CAE Method for air-born noise analysis in the Automotive area. This study deals with a method to predict the noise level inside of the car under the steady-state condition using the SEA model of car for air-born noise analysis. We can identify weakened part due to the acoustic material properties using it. Therefore, it is useful for the material structural design.Keywords: air-born noise, material structural design, acoustic material properties, absorbing
Procedia PDF Downloads 42520266 Formulation and Test of a Model to explain the Complexity of Road Accident Events in South Africa
Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou
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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 16120265 Building Successful Organizational Business Communication and Its Impact on Business Performance: An Intra- and Inter-Organizational Perspective
Authors: Aynura Valiyeva, Basil John Thomas
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Intra-firm communication is critical for building synergy amongst internal business units of a firm, where employees from various functional departments and ranks incorporate their decision-making, understanding of organizational objectives, as well as common norms and culture for better organizational effectiveness. This study builds on and assesses a framework of the causes and consequences of effective communication in business interactions between customer and supplier firms, and the path for efficient communication within a firm. The proposed study’s structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis based on 352 sample responses collected from firm representatives at different job positions ranging from marketing to logistics operations, reveals that, in the frame of reference of intra-organizational communication, organization characteristics and shared values, top management support and style of leadership, as well as information technology, are all significantly related to communication effectiveness. Furthermore, the frequency and variety of interactions enhance the outcome of communication, that improves a company’s performance. The results reveal that cultural factors are significantly related to communication effectiveness, as well as the shared beliefs and goals. In terms of organizational factors, leadership style, top management support and information technology are significant determinants of effective communication. Among the contextual factors, interaction frequency and diversity are found to be priority factors. This study also tests the relationship between supplier and supplier firm performance in the context of communication effectiveness, and finds that they are closely related, when trust and commitment is built between business partners. When firms do business in other multicultural contexts, language and shared values with destination country must be considered significant elements of communication process.Keywords: business performance, intra-firm communication, inter-firm communication, structural equation modeling
Procedia PDF Downloads 9720264 Capacity of Cold-Formed Steel Warping-Restrained Members Subjected to Combined Axial Compressive Load and Bending
Authors: Maryam Hasanali, Syed Mohammad Mojtabaei, Iman Hajirasouliha, G. Charles Clifton, James B. P. Lim
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Cold-formed steel (CFS) elements are increasingly being used as main load-bearing components in the modern construction industry, including low- to mid-rise buildings. In typical multi-storey buildings, CFS structural members act as beam-column elements since they are exposed to combined axial compression and bending actions, both in moment-resisting frames and stud wall systems. Current design specifications, including the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI S100) and the Australian/New Zealand Standard (AS/NZS 4600), neglect the beneficial effects of warping-restrained boundary conditions in the design of beam-column elements. Furthermore, while a non-linear relationship governs the interaction of axial compression and bending, the combined effect of these actions is taken into account through a simplified linear expression combining pure axial and flexural strengths. This paper aims to evaluate the reliability of the well-known Direct Strength Method (DSM) as well as design proposals found in the literature to provide a better understanding of the efficiency of the code-prescribed linear interaction equation in the strength predictions of CFS beam columns and the effects of warping-restrained boundary conditions on their behavior. To this end, the experimentally validated finite element (FE) models of CFS elements under compression and bending were developed in ABAQUS software, which accounts for both non-linear material properties and geometric imperfections. The validated models were then used for a comprehensive parametric study containing 270 FE models, covering a wide range of key design parameters, such as length (i.e., 0.5, 1.5, and 3 m), thickness (i.e., 1, 2, and 4 mm) and cross-sectional dimensions under ten different load eccentricity levels. The results of this parametric study demonstrated that using the DSM led to the most conservative strength predictions for beam-column members by up to 55%, depending on the element’s length and thickness. This can be sourced by the errors associated with (i) the absence of warping-restrained boundary condition effects, (ii) equations for the calculations of buckling loads, and (iii) the linear interaction equation. While the influence of warping restraint is generally less than 6%, the code suggested interaction equation led to an average error of 4% to 22%, based on the element lengths. This paper highlights the need to provide more reliable design solutions for CFS beam-column elements for practical design purposes.Keywords: beam-columns, cold-formed steel, finite element model, interaction equation, warping-restrained boundary conditions
Procedia PDF Downloads 10420263 Damping and Stability Evaluation for the Dynamical Hunting Motion of the Bullet Train Wheel Axle Equipped with Cylindrical Wheel Treads
Authors: Barenten Suciu
Abstract:
Classical matrix calculus and Routh-Hurwitz stability conditions, applied to the snake-like motion of the conical wheel axle, lead to the conclusion that the hunting mode is inherently unstable, and its natural frequency is a complex number. In order to analytically solve such a complicated vibration model, either the inertia terms were neglected, in the model designated as geometrical, or restrictions on the creep coefficients and yawing diameter were imposed, in the so-called dynamical model. Here, an alternative solution is proposed to solve the hunting mode, based on the observation that the bullet train wheel axle is equipped with cylindrical wheels. One argues that for such wheel treads, the geometrical hunting is irrelevant, since its natural frequency becomes nil, but the dynamical hunting is significant since its natural frequency reduces to a real number. Moreover, one illustrates that the geometrical simplification of the wheel causes the stabilization of the hunting mode, since the characteristic quartic equation, derived for conical wheels, reduces to a quadratic equation of positive coefficients, for cylindrical wheels. Quite simple analytical expressions for the damping ratio and natural frequency are obtained, without applying restrictions into the model of contact. Graphs of the time-depending hunting lateral perturbation, including the maximal and inflexion points, are presented both for the critically-damped and the over-damped wheel axles.Keywords: bullet train, creep, cylindrical wheels, damping, dynamical hunting, stability, vibration analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 15320262 Free Vibration of Functionally Graded Smart Beams Based on the First Order Shear Deformation Theory
Authors: A. R. Nezamabadi, M. Veiskarami
Abstract:
This paper studies free vibration of simply supported functionally graded beams with piezoelectric layers based on the first order shear deformation theory. The Young's modulus of beam is assumed to be graded continuously across the beam thickness. The governing equation is established. Resulting equation is solved using the Euler's equation. The effects of the constituent volume fractions, the influences of applied voltage on the vibration frequency are presented. To investigate the accuracy of the present analysis, a compression study is carried out with a known data.Keywords: mechanical buckling, functionally graded beam, first order shear deformation theory, free vibration
Procedia PDF Downloads 476