Search results for: risk communication

Authors: Mani Venkatesh, Catarina Delgado, Purvishkumar Patel

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The sustainable supply chain is gaining popularity among practitioners because of increased environmental degradation and stakeholder awareness. On the other hand supply chain, risk management is very crucial for the practitioners as it potentially disrupts supply chain operations. Prediction and addressing the risk caused by social issues in the supply chain is paramount importance to the sustainable enterprise. More recently, the usage of Big data analytics for forecasting business trends has been gaining momentum among professionals. The aim of the research is to explore the application of big data, predictive analytics in successfully mitigating supply chain social risk and demonstrate how such mitigation can help in achieving sustainability (environmental, economic & social). The method involves the identification and validation of social issues in the supply chain by an expert panel and survey. Later, we used a case study to illustrate the application of big data in the successful identification and mitigation of social issues in the supply chain. Our result shows that the company can predict various social issues through big data, predictive analytics and mitigate the social risk. We also discuss the implication of this research to the body of knowledge and practice.

Keywords: big data, sustainability, supply chain social sustainability, social risk, case study

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Authors: Paul Saah, Charles Mbohwa, Nelson Sizwe Madonsela

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The capacity to deliver projects on schedule, within budget, and to the pleasure of the client depends on effective communication, which is the lifeblood of project-based businesses. In order to pinpoint areas for development and shed light on the crucial role that communication plays in project success, the aim of this study is to evaluate the efficacy of communication practises and processes inside project-based organisations. In order to analyse concepts and get a greater grasp of their theoretical basis, this study's methodology combines a careful review of the relevant literature with a conceptual analysis of the subject. Data from a varied sample of project-based businesses spanning all industries and sizes were collected via document analysis. The relationship between communication practises, and processes were investigated in connection to key performance measures such as project outcomes, client satisfaction, and team dynamics. According to the study's findings, project-based businesses that adopt effective communication practises, and procedures experience a reduction in unfavourable experiences, stronger integration, and coordination, clarity of purpose, and practises that can hasten problem resolution. However, failing to adopt effective communication practises and procedures in project-based company result in counter issues, including project derailment from the schedule, failure to meet goals, inefficient use of existing resources, and failure to meet organisational goals. Therefore, optimising their communication practises, and procedures are crucial for sustainable growth and competitive advantage as project-based enterprises continue to play a crucial part in today's dynamic business scene.

Keywords: effective communication, project-based firms, communication practices, project success, communication strategies

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Authors: B. Gültekin, T. Gültekin

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Peace diplomacy is the most important international tool to maintain peace all over the World. This study consists of three parts. In the first part, the leadership of Devlet Bahçeli, leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, will be introduced as a tool of peace communication and peace management. Also, in this part, peace communication will be explained by the peace leadership traits of Devlet Bahçeli, who is one of the efficient political leaders representing the concepts of compromise and agreement on different sides of politics. In the second part of study, it is aimed to analyze Devlet Bahçeli’s leadership within the frame of peace communication and the final part of this study is about creating an original public communication model for public diplomacy based on Devlet Bahçeli as an example. As a result, the main purpose of this study is to develop an original peace communication model including peace modules, peace management projects, original dialogue procedures and protocols exhibited in the policies of Devlet Bahçeli. The political leadership represented by Devlet Bahçeli inspires political leaders to provide peace communication. In this study, principles and policies of peace leadership of Devlet Bahçeli will be explained as an original model on a peace communication platform.

Keywords: public diplomacy, dialogue management, peace leadership, peace diplomacy

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Authors: Namekong Fokeng Armand

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Background: Zoonoses are nowadays a serious public health problem in both developing and developed countries. They contribute to increase the economic burden. In case of emergence, rural populations are the most affected, hence the need to investigate risk practices in rural households of Penka-Michel (West Cameroon). Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted from October to November 2021 among 200 heads of households living in the Penka-Michel health district (West Cameroon). It was done using a pre-tested and validated questionnaire, allowing to obtain socio-demographic, economic data, and data on zoonotic risk practices. Results: The participants [women (56%), men (44%)] worked mainly in the informal private sector (53%) and practiced agriculture secondarily (90%). Their highest level of education, for the most part, was a secondary school (50%); the average household size was 06 persons with a monthly income > 36270 FCFA (72%). 74% of household heads thought that animals can transmit diseases, and 17% had heard about zoonotic diseases through the media (65%). Rats caught in households (60%) were consumed there (74%), as was bush meat (61%) or dog meat (18%). For family food (90%), animals were slaughtered within the household (97%), rarely preceded by a veterinary inspection (6%). 87% of households practiced traditional rites with animal blood, 65% shared the same habitat as their animals, 41% did not systematically wash their hands after handling animals. More than 50% of households owned one or more dogs, usually strays (41%) and 48% of which were vaccinated (rabies). Many households had at least one: poultry (98%); pig (50%); dog (57%), cat (52%). 25% of households slaughtered sick animals for consumption, and 27% ate dead animals. Conclusion: This study identified numerous zoonotic risk practices in households in the Penka-Michel health district (West Cameroon). Concerted, multisectoral communication / awareness-raising actions are needed to break with these practices.

Keywords: zoonoses, risky practices, rural households, penka-michel, cameroon

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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Authors: Abdulrahman Yarali

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The advancement of technology never stops because the demands for improved internet and communication connectivity are increasing. Just as 5G networks are rolling out, the world has begun to talk about the sixth-generation networks (6G). The semantics of 6G are more or less the same as 5G networks because they strive to boost speeds, machine-to-machine (M2M) communication, and latency reduction. However, some of the distinctive focuses of 6G include the optimization of networks of machines through super speeds and innovative features. This paper discusses many aspects of the technologies, architectures, challenges, and opportunities of 6G wireless communication systems.

Keywords: 6G, characteristics, infrastructures, technologies, AI, ML, IoT, applications

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Authors: Véronique Georlette, Sebastien Bette, Sylvain Brohez, Nicolas Point, Veronique Moeyaert

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Visible light communication (VLC) is a communication technology that is part of the optical wireless communication (OWC) family. It uses the visible and infrared spectrums to send data. For now, this technology has widely been studied for indoor use-cases, but it is sufficiently mature nowadays to consider the outdoor environment potentials. The main outdoor challenges are the meteorological conditions and the presence of smoke due to fire or pollutants in urban areas. This paper proposes a methodology to assess the robustness of an outdoor VLC system given the outdoor conditions. This methodology is put into practice in two realistic scenarios, a VLC bus stop, and a VLC streetlight. The methodology consists of computing the power margin available in the system, given all the characteristics of the VLC system and its surroundings. This is done thanks to an outdoor VLC communication channel simulator developed in Python. This simulator is able to quantify the effects of fog and smoke thanks to models taken from environmental and fire engineering scientific literature as well as the optical power reaching the receiver. These two phenomena impact the communication by increasing the total attenuation of the medium. The main conclusion drawn in this paper is that the levels of attenuation due to fog and smoke are in the same order of magnitude. The attenuation of fog being the highest under the visibility of 1 km. This gives a promising prospect for the deployment of outdoor VLC uses-cases in the near future.

Keywords: channel modeling, fog modeling, meteorological conditions, optical wireless communication, smoke modeling, visible light communication

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Authors: Sri Yusnita Irda Sari, Deni Kurniadi Sunjaya, Ardini Saptaningsih Raksanagara

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Water is one of the fundamental basic needs for human life, particularly drinking water sources. Although water quality is getting better, fecal-contamination of water is still found around the world, especially in the slum area of mid-low income countries. Drinking water source contamination in urban slum dwellers increases the risk of water borne diseases. Low level of sanitation and poor drinking water supply known as risk factors for diarrhea, moreover bacteria-contaminated drinking water source is the main cause of diarrhea in developing countries. This study aimed to assess risk infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination in various drinking water sources in urban area by applying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA). A Cross-sectional survey was conducted in a period of August to October 2015. Water samples were taken by simple random sampling from households in Cikapundung river basin which was one of urban slum area in the center of Bandung city, Indonesia. About 379 water samples from 199 households and 15 common wells were tested. Half of the households used treated drinking water from water gallon mostly refill water gallon which was produced in drinking water refill station. Others used raw water sources which need treatment before consume as drinking water such as tap water, borehole, dug well and spring water source. Annual risk to get infection due to Fecal Coliform contamination from highest to lowest risk was dug well (1127.9 x 10-5), spring water (49.7 x 10-5), borehole (1.383 x 10-5) and tap water (1.121 x 10-5). Annual risk infection of refill drinking water was 1.577 x 10-5 which is comparable to borehole and tap water. Household water treatment and storage to make raw water sources drinkable is essential to prevent risk of water borne diseases. Strong regulation and intense monitoring of refill water gallon quality should be prioritized by the government; moreover, distribution of tap water should be more accessible and affordable especially in urban slum area.

Keywords: drinking water, quantitative microbiological risk assessment, slum, urban

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Authors: Mariam Ismail, Kazeem Rufai, Jeremiah Balogun

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A study was conducted to apply fuzzy logic to the development of a monitoring model for child pornography based on associated risk factors, which can be used by forensic experts or integrated into forensic systems for the early detection of child pornographic activities. A number of methods were adopted in the study, which includes an extensive review of related works was done in order to identify the factors that are associated with child pornography following which they were validated by an expert sex psychologist and guidance counselor, and relevant data was collected. Fuzzy membership functions were used to fuzzify the associated variables identified alongside the risk of the occurrence of child pornography based on the inference rules that were provided by the experts consulted, and the fuzzy logic expert system was simulated using the Fuzzy Logic Toolbox available in the MATLAB Software Release 2016. The results of the study showed that there were 4 categories of risk factors required for assessing the risk of a suspect committing child pornography offenses. The results of the study showed that 2 and 3 triangular membership functions were used to formulate the risk factors based on the 2 and 3 number of labels assigned, respectively. The results of the study showed that 5 fuzzy logic models were formulated such that the first 4 was used to assess the impact of each category on child pornography while the last one takes the 4 outputs from the 4 fuzzy logic models as inputs required for assessing the risk of child pornography. The following conclusion was made; there were factors that were related to personal traits, social traits, history of child pornography crimes, and self-regulatory deficiency traits by the suspects required for the assessment of the risk of child pornography crimes committed by a suspect. Using the values of the identified risk factors selected for this study, the risk of child pornography can be easily assessed from their values in order to determine the likelihood of a suspect perpetuating the crime.

Keywords: fuzzy, membership functions, pornography, risk factors

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Authors: Nicole Marella G. Tan, Al Joseph R. Molina, Raisa Celine R. Rosete, Soraya Elisse E. Escandor, Blythe N. Ke, Veronica Marie E. Ramos, Apolinario Ericson B. Berberabe, Jose Jonas D. del Rosario, Regina Pascua-Berba, Eileen Liesl A. Cubillan, Winlove P. Mojica

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Emergency risk and health communications play a vital role in any pandemic response. However, the Philippine General Hospital (PGH) lacked a system of information delivery that could effectively fulfill the hospital’s communication needs as a COVID-19 referral hospital. This study aimed to describe the establishment of a communication framework for information dissemination within a tertiary government hospital during the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluated the perceived usefulness of its outputs. This is a mixed quantitative-qualitative study with two phases. Phase 1 documented the formation and responsibilities of the Information Education Communication (IEC) Committee. Phase 2 evaluated its output and outcomes through a hospital-wide survey of 528 healthcare workers (HCWs) using a pre-tested questionnaire. In-depth explanations were obtained from five focused group discussions (FGD) amongst various HCW subgroups. Descriptive analysis was done using STATA 16 while qualitative data were synthesized thematically. Communication practices in PGH were loosely structured at the beginning of the pandemic until the establishment of the IEC Committee. The IEC Committee was well-represented by concerned stakeholders. Nine types of infographics tackled different aspects of the hospital’s health operations after thorough inputs from concerned offices. Internal and external feedback mechanisms ensured accurate infographics. Majority of the survey respondents (98.67%) perceived these as useful in their work or daily lives. FGD participants cited the relevance of infographics to their occupations, suggested improvements, and hoped that these efforts would be continued in the future. Sustainability and comprehensive reach were the main concerns in this undertaking. The PGH COVID-19 IEC framework was developed through trial and testing as there were no existing formal structures to communicate health risks and to properly direct the HCWs in the chaotic time of a pandemic. It is a continuously evolving framework which is perceived as useful by HCWs and is hoped to be sustained in the future.

Keywords: COVID-19, pandemic, health communication, infographics, social media

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Authors: Yukinori Fuse, Masato Kawaguchi

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A quantitative risk assessment method was developed for fiber emissions from sprayed asbestos-containing materials (ACMs). In Japan, instead of being quantitative, these risk assessments have relied on the subjective judgment of skilled engineers, which may vary from one person to another. Therefore, this closed sampling method aims at avoiding any potential variability between assessments. This method was used to assess emissions from ACM sprayed in eleven buildings and the obtained results were compared with the subjective judgments of a skilled engineer. An approximate correlation tendency was found between both approaches. In spite of existing uncertainties, the closed sampling method is useful for public health protection. We firmly believe that this method may find application in the management and renovation decisions of buildings using friable and sprayed ACM.

Keywords: asbestos, renovation, risk assessment, maintenance

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Authors: Abdullah Alsayeqh

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The burden of foodborne diseases in Saudi Arabia is currently unknown. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors associated with these diseases among women in Riyadh. A cross-sectional study was carried out from March to July, 2013 where participants’ responses indicated that they were at risk of these diseases through improper food-holding temperature (45.28%), inadequate cooking (35.47%), cross-contamination (32.23%), and food from unsafe sources (22.39%). The claimed food safety knowledge by 22.04% of participants was not evidenced by their reported behaviors (p > 0.05). This is the first study to identify the gap in food safety knowledge among women in Riyadh which needs to be addressed by the concerned authorities in the country by engaging women more effectively in food safety educational campaigns.

Keywords: foodborne diseases, risk factors, knowledge, women, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: C. V. Pietreanu, S. E. Zaharia, C. Dinu

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Hazard assessment and risks quantification are key components for estimating the impact of existing regulations. But since regulatory compliance cannot cover all risks in aviation, the authors point out that by studying causal factors and eliminating uncertainty, an accurate analysis can be outlined. The research debuts by making delimitations on notions, as confusion on the terms over time has reflected in less rigorous analysis. Throughout this paper, it will be emphasized the fact that the variation in human performance and organizational factors represent the biggest threat from an operational perspective. Therefore, advanced risk assessment methods analyzed by the authors aim to understand vulnerabilities of the system given by a nonlinear behavior. Ultimately, the mathematical modeling of existing hazards and risks by eliminating uncertainty implies establishing an optimal solution (i.e. risk minimization).

Keywords: control, human factor, optimization, risk management, uncertainty

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Authors: S. Alyami, S. Mohammad

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These Risk management practices have a significant impact on construction SMEs. The effective utilisation of these practices depends on culture change in order to optimise decision making for critical activities within construction projects. Thus, successful implementation of empowerment strategies would enhance operational employees to participate in effective decision making. However, there remain many barriers to individuals and organisations within empowerment strategies that require empirical investigation before the industry can benefit from their implementation. Gaps in understanding the relationship between employee empowerment and risk management practices still exist. This research paper aims to examine the impact of the structural empowerment on risk management practices in construction SMEs. The questionnaire has been distributed to participants (162 employees) that involve projects and civil engineers within a case study from Saudi construction SMEs. Partial least squares based structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilised to perform analysis. The results reveal a positive relationship between empowerment and risk management practices. The study shows how structural empowerment contributes to operational employees in risk management practices through involving activities such as decision making, self-efficiency, and autonomy. The findings of this study will contribute to close the current gaps in the construction SMEs context.

Keywords: construction SMEs, culture, decision making, empowerment, risk management

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Authors: Cristiane Hengler Corrêa Bernardo

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The communication is an essential part of the process that characterizes scientific research. It should be present in every stage of research in a systemic way. However, this process is not always efficient and effective. Reports of researchers focused on agribusiness point to difficulties in communicating with farmers that negatively impact on research results and may cause distortions and even quite significant inconsistencies. This research aims at identifying the main noise and barriers in communication between agribusiness researchers and farmers. It discusses the possibility of creating a specific strategy to correct or minimize such failures. The main research question: what features of the communication process will be decisive for the communication between agribusiness researcher and farmer occur with greater efficiency? It is expected that the research will result in processes that may correct or minimize such problems, promoting dialogues more efficient knowledge. The research will adopt a qualitative approach, using action research as a form of investigative action for social and educational nature, aiming at promoting understanding and interaction between researchers and members of the investigated situations. To collect and analyze data to document analysis will be used; questionnaires and interviews and content analysis.

Keywords: agribusiness farmers, researchers, science communication, analysis

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Authors: Sareh Rajabi, Salwa Bheiry

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In general, Covid-19 created many financial and non-financial damages to the economy and community. Level and severity of covid-19 as pandemic case varies over the region and due to different types of the projects. Covid-19 virus emerged as one of the most imperative risk management factors word-wide recently. Therefore, as part of portfolio management assessment, it is essential to evaluate severity of such risk on the project and program in portfolio management level to avoid any risky portfolio. Covid-19 appeared very effectively in South America, part of Europe and Middle East. Such pandemic infection affected the whole universe, due to lock down, interruption in supply chain management, health and safety requirements, transportations and commercial impacts. Therefore, this research proposes Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to analyze and assess such pandemic case like Covid-19 and its impacts on the construction projects. The AHP technique uses four sub-criteria: Health and safety, commercial risk, completion risk and contractual risk to evaluate the project and program. The result will provide the decision makers with information which project has higher or lower risk in case of Covid-19 and pandemic scenario. Therefore, the decision makers can have most feasible solution based on effective weighted criteria for project selection within their portfolio to match with the organization’s strategies.

Keywords: portfolio management, risk management, COVID-19, analytical hierarchy process technique

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Authors: Victorine Mbong Shu

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Very little research exists on family sex and sexuality communication and identity formation and how communication is helping adolescents in forming their sexual identities in South Africa. This study is designed to explore the impact of sexual communication in African families and the dynamics that influence the openness or closedness of adolescent sexual identities. The primary objectives of this study are threefold; to understand how sexuality communication in African families impacts the closedness and/or openness of adolescent African identities; to explore the nature of African children's sexuality given the status of their families’ communications on sex; to describe how parental or adult sexual knowledge, attitudes, values of sex, etc. are translated to children in African families, if at all. This study seeks answers to challenges faced by African parents and caregivers of adolescent children in South Africa regarding sex-sexuality communication and their shifting identities in different spaces. Its outcome seeks to empower these families on how to continue to effectively communicate sex and sexuality at different stages and circumstances. Two sets of people are interviewed separately in order to explore issues of familial communication and how to understand how together with religion and culture, adolescents are socialised to form the social and gender identities that they take to adulthood. They were parents of adolescents and young adult children who spoke in retrospect on when they were adolescents. The results of this study will fill knowledge gaps considering the chosen theory of communication that gives clarity to the topic of sex and sexuality communication in African families in South Africa and the dynamics of privacy that influence identity formation. A subset of the 40 conversations, 5 female parents, 5 male parents, 5 young female adults, and 5 male young adults, was used for this analysis. The preliminary results revealed five emergent themes informed by research questions and the theoretical framework of this study: Open communication, Discomfort discussing sex and sexuality, The importance of sex communication to African parents, Factors influencing African families’ communication about sex and sexuality and Privacy and boundaries.

Keywords: sex, sexuality, communication, African families, adolescents

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Authors: Bola M. Tunde-Awe

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The study investigated the influence of teacher’s non-verbal communication on secondary school students’ learning outcomes in English language. The study was a survey research. Participants were three hundred Senior Secondary School II students randomly selected from ten schools in Akoko South West Local Government Area of Ondo State, Nigeria. The instrument used for data collection was a questionnaire containing twenty items on a four-point Likert scale which measured teacher’s use of three types of non-verbal communication modes: body movement, eye contact and spatial distance. The data collected was analysed using simple percentage. Findings revealed that teacher’s use of these non-verbal communication modes enhanced learners’ learning outcomes in English language: a total of 271 (90.33%) participants affirmed that teacher’s body language influenced their learning of English; 224 (74.66%) maintained the same stand for eye contact; while 202 (67.33%) affirmed that teacher’s spatial distance had positive influence. Consequent upon these findings, it was recommended that teachers of English language should constantly utilize non-verbal communication in their instructional delivery. Also, non-verbal communication modes should be included in teacher education programme to equip prospective pre-service teachers with the art of non-verbal communication.

Keywords: non-verbal communication, body language, eye contact, spatial distance, learning outcomes

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Authors: Jae-Hyun Ro, Yong-Jun Kim, Eui-Hak Lee, Hyoung-Kyu Song

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Mobile communication has been developing very rapidly since it appeared. However, although mobile communication market has been rapidly developing, many mobile users are not offered good quality of service (QoS) due to increment of the amount of data traffic. Recently, femtocell is very hot issue in mobile communication because femtocell can solve the problems of data traffic and offer better QoS to mobile users. However, the deployment of femtocell in existing macrocell coverage area is not so simple due to the influence of inter-cell-interference (ICI) with existing macrocell. Thus, this paper proposes femtocell scheme which is able to reduce the influence of ICI to deploy femtocell easily.

Keywords: CDD, femtocell, interference, macrocell, OFDM

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Authors: Emmy Pratiwi, Ketut B. Artana, A. A. B. Dinariyana

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Madura Strait is considered as one of the busiest shipping channels in Indonesia. High vessel traffic density in Madura Strait gives serious threat due to navigational safety in this area, i.e. ship collision. This study is necessary as an attempt to enhance the safety of marine traffic. Fuzzy inference system (FIS) is proposed to calculate risk collision of ships. Collision risk is evaluated based on ship domain, Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA), and Time to Closest Point of Approach (TCPA). Data were collected by utilizing Automatic Identification System (AIS). This study considers several ships’ domain models to give the characteristic of marine traffic in the waterways. Each encounter in the ship domain is analyzed to obtain the level of collision risk. Risk level of ships, as the result in this study, can be used as guidance to avoid the accident, providing brief description about safety traffic in Madura Strait and improving the navigational safety in the area.

Keywords: automatic identification system, collision risk, DCPA, fuzzy inference system, TCPA

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Authors: A. Fathianpour, M. B. Jelodar, S. Wilkinson

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This paper outlines the approaches taken to assess multi-hazard assessments. There is currently confusion in assessing multi-hazard impacts, and so this study aims to determine which of the available options are the most useful. The paper uses an international literature search, and analysis of current multi-hazard assessments and a case study to illustrate the effectiveness of the chosen method. Findings from this study will help those wanting to assess multi-hazards to undertake a straightforward approach. The paper is significant as it helps to interpret the various approaches and concludes with the preferred method. Many people in the world live in hazardous environments and are susceptible to disasters. Unfortunately, when a disaster strikes it is often compounded by additional cascading hazards, thus people would confront more than one hazard simultaneously. Hazards include natural hazards (earthquakes, floods, etc.) or cascading human-made hazards (for example, Natural Hazard Triggering Technological disasters (Natech) such as fire, explosion, toxic release). Multi-hazards have a more destructive impact on urban areas than one hazard alone. In addition, climate change is creating links between different disasters such as causing landslide dams and debris flows leading to more destructive incidents. Much of the prevailing literature deals with only one hazard at a time. However, recently sophisticated multi-hazard assessments have started to appear. Given that multi-hazards occur, it is essential to take multi-hazard risk assessment under consideration. This paper aims to review the multi-hazard assessment methods through articles published to date and categorize the strengths and disadvantages of using these methods in risk assessment. Napier City is selected as a case study to demonstrate the necessity of using multi-hazard risk assessments. In order to assess multi-hazard risk assessments, first, the current multi-hazard risk assessment methods were described. Next, the drawbacks of these multi-hazard risk assessments were outlined. Finally, the improvements to current multi-hazard risk assessments to date were summarised. Generally, the main problem of multi-hazard risk assessment is to make a valid assumption of risk from the interactions of different hazards. Currently, risk assessment studies have started to assess multi-hazard situations, but drawbacks such as uncertainty and lack of data show the necessity for more precise risk assessment. It should be noted that ignoring or partial considering multi-hazards in risk assessment will lead to an overestimate or overlook in resilient and recovery action managements.

Keywords: cascading hazards, disaster assessment, mullti-hazards, risk assessment

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Authors: M. J. Park, S. H. Lee, C. H. Lee, O. M. Kwon

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This paper studies a secondary voltage control framework of the microgrids based on the consensus for a communication network of multiagent. The proposed control is designed by the communication network with one-way links. The communication network is modeled by a directed graph. At this time, the concept of sampling is considered as the communication constraint among each distributed generator in the microgrids. To analyze the sampling effects on the secondary voltage control of the microgrids, by using Lyapunov theory and some mathematical techniques, the sufficient condition for such problem will be established regarding linear matrix inequality (LMI). Finally, some simulation results are given to illustrate the necessity of the consideration of the sampling effects on the secondary voltage control of the microgrids.

Keywords: microgrids, secondary control, multiagent, sampling, LMI

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Authors: Fei Gao, Rodolfo C. Raga Jr.

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This research proposal will ascertain the major risk factors for diabetes and to design a predictive model for risk assessment. The project aims to improve diabetes early detection and management by utilizing data science techniques, which may improve patient outcomes and healthcare efficiency. The phase relation values of each attribute were used to analyze and choose the attributes that might influence the examiner's survival probability using Diabetes Health Indicators Dataset from Kaggle’s data as the research data. We compare and evaluate eight machine learning algorithms. Our investigation begins with comprehensive data preprocessing, including feature engineering and dimensionality reduction, aimed at enhancing data quality. The dataset, comprising health indicators and medical data, serves as a foundation for training and testing these algorithms. A rigorous cross-validation process is applied, and we assess their performance using five key metrics like accuracy, precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). After analyzing the data characteristics, investigate their impact on the likelihood of diabetes and develop corresponding risk indicators.

Keywords: diabetes, risk factors, predictive model, risk assessment, data science techniques, early detection, data analysis, Kaggle

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Authors: Noor Attar

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This paper provides an overview of the current situation of HIV/AIDS patients in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) and a literature review of the concepts of stigma communication, communication of social support. These concepts provide the basis for the proposed methods, which will include conducting a textual analysis of materials that are currently distributed to family members of people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHIV/A) in KSA and creating an educational brochure. The brochure will aim to help families of PLWHIV/A in KSA (1) understand how stigma shapes the experience of PLWHIV/A, (2) realize the role of positive communication as a helpful social support, and (3) develop the ability to provide positive social support for their loved ones.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, Saudi Arabia, social support, stigma communication

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Authors: David Ahiamadia, Ramilan Thiagarajah, Peter Tozer

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In Sub Saharan Africa, farm typologies have been used as a practical way to address heterogeneity among farming systems which is mostly done by grouping farms into subsets with similar characteristics. Due to the complexity in farming systems among farm households, it is not possible to formulate policy recommendations for individual farmers. As a result, this study employs a multivariate statistical approach using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) coupled with cluster analysis to reduce heterogeneity in a 615-household data set from the Africa Rising Baseline Evaluation Survey for 25 farming communities in Northern Ghana. Variables selected for the study were mostly socio-economic, production potential, production intensity, production orientation, crop diversity, food security, resource endowments, and climate risk variables. To avoid making some individuals in the subpopulation worse off when aclimate risk intervention is broadly implemented, the findings of the study also account for diversity in climate risk perception among the different farm types identified and their response strategies towards climate risk. The climate risk variables used in this study involve the most severeclimate shock types perceived by the household, household response to climate shock type, and reason for crop failure (i.e., maize, rice, and groundnut). Eventually, four farm types, each with an adequate level of homogeneity in climate risk perception and response strategies, were identified. Farm type 1 and 3 were wealthy with a lower degree of climate risk perception compared to farm type 2 and 4. Also, relatively wealthy farmers used asset liquidation as a climate risk management strategy, whereas poor farmers resorted to engaging in spiritual activities such as prayers, sacrifices, and divine consultations.

Keywords: smallholder, households, climate risk, variables, typologies

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Authors: A. Badran, M. Hollocks, H. Markus

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Background: Common risk factors for cardiovascular disease are associated with age-related cognitive decline. There has been much interest in treating modifiable cardiovascular risk factors in the hope of reducing cognitive decline. However, there is currently no validated neuropsychological test to assess the subclinical cognitive effects of vascular risk. The Brief Memory and Executive Test (BMET) is a clinical screening tool, which was originally designed to be sensitive and specific to Vascular Cognitive Impairment (VCI), an impairment characterised by decline in frontally-mediated cognitive functions (e.g. Executive Function and Processing Speed). Objective: To cross-sectionally assess the validity of the BMET as a measure of the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in an otherwise healthy elderly cohort. Methods: Data from 346 participants (57 ± 10 years) without major neurological or psychiatric disorders were included in this study, gathered as part of a previous multicentre validation study for the BMET. Framingham Vascular Age was used as a surrogate measure of vascular risk, incorporating several established risk factors. Principal Components Analysis of the subtests was used to produce common constructs: an index for Memory and another for Executive Function/Processing Speed. Univariate General Linear models were used to relate Vascular Age to performance on Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory subtests of the BMET, adjusting for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity. Results: Adverse vascular risk was associated with poorer performance on both the Memory and Executive Function/Processing Speed indices, adjusted for Age, Premorbid Intelligence and Ethnicity (p=0.011 and p<0.001, respectively). Conclusions: Performance on the BMET reflects the subclinical effects of vascular risk on cognition, in age-related cognitive decline. Vascular risk is associated with decline in both Executive Function/Processing Speed and Memory groups of subtests. Future studies are needed to explore whether treating vascular risk factors can effectively reduce age-related cognitive decline.

Keywords: age-related cognitive decline, vascular cognitive impairment, subclinical cerebrovascular disease, cognitive aging

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Authors: Mirzet SeHo, Alaa Alaabed, Mansur Masih

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In theory, risk-sharing-based financing (RSF) is considered a corner stone of Islamic finance. It is argued to render Islamic banks more resilient to shocks. In practice, however, this feature of Islamic financial products is almost negligible. Instead, debt-based instruments, with conventional like features, have overwhelmed the nascent industry. In addition, the framework of present-day economic, regulatory and financial reality inevitably exposes Islamic banks in dual banking systems to problems of conventional banks. This includes, but is not limited to, interest rate risk. Empirical evidence has, thus far, confirmed such exposures, despite Islamic banks’ interest-free operations. This study applies system GMM in modeling the determinants of RSF, and finds that RSF is insensitive to changes in interest rates. Hence, our results provide support to the “stability” view of risk-sharing-based financing. This suggests RSF as the way forward for risk management at Islamic banks, in the absence of widely acceptable Shariah compliant hedging instruments. Further support to the stability view is given by evidence of counter-cyclicality. Unlike debt-based lending that inflates artificial asset bubbles through credit expansion during the upswing of business cycles, RSF is negatively related to GDP growth. Our results also imply a significantly strong relationship between risk-sharing deposits and RSF. However, the pass-through of these deposits to RSF is economically low. Only about 40% of risk-sharing deposits are channeled to risk-sharing financing. This raises questions on the validity of the industry’s claim that depositors accustomed to conventional banking shun away from risk sharing and signals potential for better balance sheet management at Islamic banks. Overall, our findings suggest that, on the one hand, Islamic banks can gain ‘independence’ from conventional banks and interest rates through risk-sharing products, the potential for which is enormous. On the other hand, RSF could enable policy makers to improve systemic stability and restrain excessive credit expansion through its countercyclical features.

Keywords: Islamic banks, risk-sharing, financing, interest rate, dynamic system GMM

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Authors: Yi-Hsien Wang, Fu-Ju Yang, Hwa-Rong Shen, Rui-Lin Tseng

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The business is notably related to the market risk according to the increase of liberalization of financial markets. Hence, the company usually utilized high financial leverage of derivatives to hedge the risk. When the company choose different hedging instruments to face a variety of exchange rate risk, we employ the Multinomial Logistic-AHP to analyze the impact of various derivatives. Hence, the research summarized the literature on relevant factors affecting managers selected exchange rate hedging instruments, using Multinomial Logistic Model and and further integrate AHP. Using Experts’ Questionnaires can test multi-level selection and hedging effect of different hedging instruments in order to calculate the hedging instruments and the multi-level factors of weights to understand the gap between the empirical results and practical operation. Finally, the Multinomial Logistic-AHP Model will sort the weights to analyze. The research findings can be a basis reference for investors in decision-making.

Keywords: exchange rate risk, derivatives, hedge, multinomial logistic-AHP

Procedia PDF Downloads 441

Authors: Peifang Hsieh

Abstract:

The prevention of child abuse has aroused serious concerns in Taiwan because of the disparity between the increasing amount of reported child abuse cases that doubled over the past decade and the scarcity of social workers. New Taipei city, with the most population in Taiwan and over 70% of its 4 million citizens are migrant families in which the needs of children can be easily neglected due to insufficient support from relatives and communities, sees urgency for a social support system, by preemptively identifying and outreaching high-risk families of child abuse, so as to offer timely assistance and preventive measure to safeguard the welfare of the children. Big data analysis is the inspiration. As it was clear that high-risk families of child abuse have certain characteristics in common, New Taipei city decides to consolidate detailed background information data from departments of social affairs, education, labor, and health (for example considering status of parents’ employment, health, and if they are imprisoned, fugitives or under substance abuse), to cross-reference for accurate and prompt identification of the high-risk families in need. 'The Service Center for High-Risk Families' (SCHF) was established to integrate data cross-departmentally. By utilizing the machine learning 'random forest method' to build a risk prediction model which can early detect families that may very likely to have child abuse occurrence, the SCHF marks high-risk families red, yellow, or green to indicate the urgency for intervention, so as to those families concerned can be provided timely services. The accuracy and recall rates of the above model were 80% and 65%. This prediction model can not only improve the child abuse prevention process by helping social workers differentiate the risk level of newly reported cases, which may further reduce their major workload significantly but also can be referenced for future policy-making.

Keywords: child abuse, high-risk families, big data analysis, risk prediction model

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Authors: K. P. Fasalu Rahman

Abstract:

The financial services industry of Islam include large number of institutions, such as investment banks and commercial banks, investment companies and mutual insurance companies. All types of these financial institutions should have to deal with many issues and risks in their field of work. Islamic banks should expect to face two types of risks: risks that are similar to those faced by conventional financial intermediaries and risks that are unique to the Islamic Banks due to their compliance with the Shariah. The use of financial services and products that comply with the Shariah principles cause special issues for supervision and risk management. Risks are uncertain future events that could influence the achievement of the bank’s objectives, including strategic, operational, financial and compliance objectives. In Islamic banks, effective risk management deserves special attention. As an operational problem, risk management is the classification and identification of methods, processes, and risks in banks to supervise, monitor and measure them. In comparison to conventional banks, Islamic banks face big difficulties in identifying and managing risks due to bigger complexities emerging from the profit loss sharing (PLS) concept and nature of particular risks of Islamic financing. As the developing of managing risks tool becomes very essential, especially in Islamic banking as most of the products are depending on PLS principle, identifying and measuring each type of risk is highly important and critical in any Islamic finance based systems. This paper highlights the special and general risks surrounding Islamic banking. And it investigates in detail the need for risk management in Islamic banks. In addition to analyzing the effectiveness of risk management strategies adopted by Islamic financial institutions at present, this research is also suggesting strategies for improving risk management process of Islamic banks in future.

Keywords: Islamic banking, management, risk, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 138