Search results for: rainfall events

Authors: Omolara Lade, David Oloke

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Ibadan City suffers serious water supply problems; cases of dry taps are common in virtually every part of the City. The scarcity of piped water has made communities find alternative water sources; groundwater sources being a ready source. These wells are prone to pollution due to the close proximity of septic tanks to wells, disposal of solid or liquid wastes in pits, abandoned boreholes or even stream channels and landfills. Storms and floods in Ibadan have increased with consequent devastating effects claiming over 120 lives and displacing 600 people on August 2011 alone. In this study, an analysis of the water demand and sources of supply for the city was carried out through questionnaire survey and collection of data from City’s main water supply - Water Corporation of Oyo State (WCOS), groundwater sources were explored and 30 years rainfall data were collected from Meteorological station in Ibadan. 1067 questionnaire were administered at household level with a response rate of 86.7 %. A descriptive analysis of the survey revealed that 77.1 % of the respondents did not receive water at all from WCOS while 83.8 % depend on groundwater sources. Analysis of data from WCOS revealed that main water supply is inadequate as < 10 % of the population water demand was met. Rainfall intensity is highest in June with a mean value of 188 mm, which can be harvested at community—based level and used to complement the population water demand. Rainwater harvesting if planned, and managed properly will become a valuable alternative source of managing urban flood and alleviating water scarcity in the city.

Keywords: Ibadan, rainwater harvesting, sustainable water, urban flooding

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Authors: Shunichiro Morishita

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This study examines the factors for attracting foreign guests in the Japanese lodging industry and discusses some measures taken for accepting foreign guests. It reviews three different accommodation providers acclaimed highly by foreign guests, Yamashiroya, Sawanoya and Fuji-Hakone Guest House, and identifies their characteristics. The common points for attracting foreign guests were: 1) making the best use of the old facilities, 2) multilingual signs, guidance and websites, 3) necessary and sufficient communication in English, 4) events and opportunities to experience Japanese culture, 5) omotenashi, warm and homely Japanese hospitality. These findings indicate that foreign guests’ dissatisfaction level can be decreased through internationalization utilizing ICT and by offering multilingual support. On the other hand, their satisfaction level can be increased by encouraging interaction with other guests and local Japanese people, providing events and opportunities to experience Japanese culture and omotenashi, home-style Japanese hospitality.

Keywords: hospitality management, foreign guests, Japanese lodging industry, Omotenashi

Procedia PDF Downloads 157

Authors: Kamal Kithsiri Karunadasa Hewawasam Revulge

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This paper is an interpretative historical analysis of Australian migration laws that examines asylum and refugee policies and attitudes in Australia. It looks at major turning points in Australian migration history, and in doing so, the researcher reviewed relevant literature on the aspects crucial to highlighting the current trend of Australian migration policies. The data was collected using secondary data from official government sources, including annual reports, media releases on immigration, inquiry reports, statistical information, and other available literature to identify critical historical events that significantly affected the systematic developments of asylum seekers and refugee policies in Australia and to look at the historical trends of official thinking. A reliance on using these official sources is justified as those are the most convincing sources to analyse the historical events in Australia. Additional literature provides us with critical analyses of the behaviour and culture of the Australian immigration administration. The analytical framework reviewed key Australian Government immigration policies since British colonization and the settlement era of 1787–the 1850s and to the present. The fundamental basis for doing so is that past events and incidents offer us clues and lessons relevant to the present day. Therefore, providing a perspective on migration history in Australia helps analyse how current policymakers' strategies developed and changed over time. Attention is also explicitly focused on Australian asylum and refugee policy internationally, as it helped to broaden the analysis. The finding proved a link between past events and adverse current Australian government policies towards asylum seekers and refugees. It highlighted that Australia's current migration policies are part of a carefully and deliberately planned pattern that arose from the occupation of Australia by early British settlers. In this context, the remarkable point is that the historical events of taking away children from their Australian indigenous parents, widely known as the 'stolen generation' reflected a model of assimilation, or a desire to absorb other cultures into Australian society by fully adopting the settlers' language, their culture, and losing indigenous people's traditions. Current Australian policies towards migrants reflect the same attitude. Hence, it could be argued that policies and attitudes towards asylum seekers and refugees, particularly so-called 'boat people' to some extent, still reflect Australia's earlier colonial and 'white Australia' history.

Keywords: migration law, refugee law, international law, administrative law

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Authors: Md Ruhul Amin

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This study was conducted in the experimental field of the Department of Entomology, Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh during November 2017 to May 2018 with a view to understanding the seasonal abundance of the major sucking pests namely thrips, aphid and red spider mite on rose. The findings showed that the thrips started to build up their population from the middle of January with abundance 1.0 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (2.6 leaf⁻¹) in the middle of February and then declined. Aphid started to build up their population from the second week of November with abundance 6.0 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (8.4 leaf⁻¹) in the last week of December and then declined. Mite started to build up their population from the first week of December with abundance 0.8 leaf⁻¹, increased continuously, reached to the peak level (8.2 leaf⁻¹) in the second week of March and then declined. Thrips and mite prevailed until the last week of April, and aphid showed their abundance till last week of May. The daily mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall had an insignificant negative correlation with thrips and significant negative correlation with aphid abundance. The daily mean temperature had significant positive, relative humidity had an insignificant positive, and rainfall had an insignificant negative correlation with mite abundance. The multiple linear regression analysis showed that the weather parameters together contributed 38.1, 41.0 and 8.9% abundance on thrips, aphid and mite on rose, respectively and the equations were insignificant.

Keywords: aphid, mite, thrips, weather factors

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Authors: Bernard Moeketsi Hlalele

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Drought is a complicated natural phenomenon that creates significant economic, social, and environmental problems. An analysis of paleoclimatic data indicates that severe and extended droughts are inevitable part of natural climatic circle. This study characterised drought in Lejweleputswa using both Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) and neural networks (NN) to quantify and predict respectively. Monthly 37-year long time series precipitation data were obtained from online NASA database. Prior to the final analysis, this dataset was checked for outliers using SPSS. Outliers were removed and replaced by Expectation Maximum algorithm from SPSS. This was followed by both homogeneity and stationarity tests to ensure non-spurious results. A non-parametric Mann Kendall's test was used to detect monotonic trends present in the dataset. Two temporal scales SPI-3 and SPI-12 corresponding to agricultural and hydrological drought events showed statistically decreasing trends with p-value = 0.0006 and 4.9 x 10⁻⁷, respectively. The study area has been plagued with severe drought events on SPI-3, while on SPI-12, it showed approximately a 20-year circle. The concluded the analyses with a seasonal analysis that showed no significant trend patterns, and as such NN was used to predict possible SPI-3 for the last season of 2018/2019 and four seasons for 2020. The predicted drought intensities ranged from mild to extreme drought events to come. It is therefore recommended that farmers, agri-business owners, and other relevant stakeholders' resort to drought resistant crops as means of adaption.

Keywords: drought, risk, neural networks, agri-businesses, project, Lejweleputswa

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Authors: Sandipika Gupta

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Objective: Due to admirably low 30-day mortality rates for paediatric cardiac surgery, it is now pertinent to turn towards more intermediate-length outcomes such as morbidities closely associated with these surgeries. One such morbidity, major adverse events (MAE) comprises a group of adverse outcomes associated with paediatric cardiac surgery (e.g. cardiac arrest, major haemorrhage). Methods: This is a retrospective study that analysed the incidence and impact of MAE which was the primary outcome in the UK population. The data was collected in 5 centres between October 2015 and June 2017, amassing 3090 surgical episodes. The incidence and risk factors for MAE, were assessed through descriptive statistical analyses and multivariate logistic regression. The secondary outcomes of life status at 6 months and the length of hospital stay were also evaluated to understand the impact of MAE on patients. Results: Out of 3090 episodes, 134 (4.3%) had a postoperative MAE. The majority of the episodes were in: neonates (47%, P<0.001), high-risk cardiac diagnosis groups (20.1%, P<0.001), episodes with longer 5mes on the bypass (72.4%, P<0.001) and urgent surgeries (57.9%, P<0.001). Episodes reporting MAE also reported longer lengths of stay in hospital (29 days vs 9 days, P<0.001). Furthermore, patients experiencing MAE were at a higher risk of mortality at the 6-month life status check (mortality rates: 29.2% vs 2%, P<0.001).Conclusions: Key risk factors were identified. An important negative impact of MAE was found for patients. The identified risk factors could be used to profile and flag at-risk patients. Monitoring of MAE rates and closer investigation into the care pathway before and after individual MAEs in children’s heart units may lead to a reduction in these terrible events.

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Authors: Anil Giri, Kyle Lovercamp, Sankalp Sharma

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Farm level incomes fluctuate significantly due to extreme weather events such as drought. In the light of recent extreme weather events it is important to understand the implications of extreme weather events, flood and drought, on farm level incomes. This study examines the variation in farm level incomes for the United States in drought and no- drought years. Factoring heterogeneity in different enterprises (crop, livestock) and geography this paper analyzes the impact of drought in farm level incomes at state and national level. Livestock industry seems to be affected more by the lag in production of input feed for production, crops, as preliminary results show. Furthermore, preliminary results also show that while crop producers are not affected much due to drought, as price and quantity effect worked on opposite direction with same magnitude, that was not the case for livestock and horticulture enterprises. Results also showed that even when price effect was not as high the crop insurance component helped absorb much of shock for crop producers. Finally, the effect was heterogeneous for different states more on the coastal states compared Midwest region. This study should generate a lot of interest from policy makers across the world as some countries are actively seeking to increase subsidies in their agriculture sector. This study shows how subsidies absorb the shocks for one enterprise more than others. Finally, this paper should also be able to give an insight to economists to design/recommend policies such that it is optimal given the production level of different enterprises in different countries.

Keywords: farm level income, United States, crop, livestock

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Authors: Alok Saini, Rajkumar Ghosh

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Water is nature's important resource for survival of all living things, but freshwater scarcity exists in some parts of world. This study has predicted that Gomti Nagar area (49.2 sq. km.) will harvest about 91110 ML of rainwater till 2051 (assuming constant and present annual rainfall). But 17.71 ML of rainwater was harvested from only 53 buildings in Gomti Nagar area in the year 2021. Water level will be increased (rise) by 13 cm in Gomti Nagar from such groundwater recharge. The total annual groundwater abstraction from Gomti Nagar area was 35332 ML (in 2021). Due to hydrogeological constraints and lower annual rainfall, groundwater recharge is less than groundwater abstraction. The recent scenario is only 0.07% of rainwater recharges by RTRWHs in Gomti Nagar. But if RTRWHs would be installed in all buildings then 12.39% of rainwater could recharge groundwater table in Gomti Nagar area. But if RTRWHs would be installed in all buildings then 12.39% of rainwater could recharge groundwater table in Gomti Nagar area. Gomti Nagar is situated in 'Zone–A' (water distribution area) and groundwater is the primary source of freshwater supply. Current scenario indicates only 0.07% of rainwater recharges by RTRWHs in Gomti Nagar. In Gomti Nagar, the difference between groundwater abstraction and recharge will be 735570 ML in 30 yrs. Statistically, all buildings at Gomti Nagar (new and renovated) could harvest 3037 ML of rainwater through RTRWHs annually. The most recent monsoonal recharge in Gomti Nagar was 10813 ML/yr. Harvested rainwater collected from RTRWHs can be used for rooftop irrigation, and residential kitchen and gardens (home grown fruit and vegetables). According to bylaws, RTRWH installations are required in both newly constructed and existing buildings plot areas of 300 sq. m or above. Harvested rainwater is of higher quality than contaminated groundwater. Harvested rainwater from RTRWHs can be considered water self-sufficient. Rooftop Rainwater Harvesting Systems (RTRWHs) are least expensive, eco-friendly, most sustainable, and alternative water resource for artificial recharge. This study also predicts about 3.9 m of water level rise in Gomti Nagar area till 2051, only when all buildings will install RTRWHs and harvest for groundwater recharging. As a result, this current study responds to an impact assessment study of RTRWHs implementation for the water scarcity problem in the Gomti Nagar area (1.36 sq.km.). This study suggests that common storage tanks (recharge wells) should be built for a group of at least ten (10) households and optimal amount of harvested rainwater will be stored annually. Artificial recharge from alternative water sources will be required to improve the declining water level trend and balance the groundwater table in this area. This over-exploitation of groundwater may lead to land subsidence, and development of vertical cracks.

Keywords: aquifer, aquitard, artificial recharge, bylaws, groundwater, monsoon, rainfall, rooftop rainwater harvesting system, RTRWHs water table, water level

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Authors: Anila Hayat

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Pakistan is one of those developing countries that are least involved in emissions but has the most vulnerable environmental conditions. Pakistan is ranked 8th in most affected countries by climate change on the climate risk index 1992-2011. Pakistan is facing severe water shortages and flooding as a result of changes in rainfall patterns, specifically in the least developed areas such as Tharparkar. Nagarparkar, once an attractive tourist spot located in Tharparkar because of its tropical desert climate, is now facing severe drought conditions for the last few decades. This study investigates the present socio-economic situation of local communities, major impacts of droughts and their underlying causes and current mitigation strategies adopted by local communities. The study uses both secondary (quantitative in nature) and primary (qualitative in nature) methods to understand the impacts and explore causes on the socio-economic life of local communities of the study area. The relevant data has been collected through household surveys using structured questionnaires, focus groups and in-depth interviews of key personnel from local and international NGOs to explore the sensitivity of impacts and adaptation to droughts in the study area. This investigation is limited to four rural communities of union council Pilu of Nagarparkar district, including Bheel, BhojaBhoon, Mohd Rahan Ji Dhani and Yaqub Ji Dhani villages. The results indicate that drought has caused significant economic and social hardships for the local communities as more than 60% of the overall population is dependent on rainfall which has been disturbed by irregular rainfall patterns. The decline in Crop yields has forced the local community to migrate to nearby areas in search of livelihood opportunities. Communities have not undertaken any appropriate adaptive actions to counteract the adverse effect of drought; they are completely dependent on support from the government and external aid for survival. Respondents also reported that poverty is a major cause of their vulnerability to drought. An increase in population, limited livelihood opportunities, caste system, lack of interest from the government sector, unawareness shaped their vulnerability to drought and other social issues. Based on the findings of this study, it is recommended that the local authorities shall create awareness about drought hazards and improve the resilience of communities against drought. It is further suggested to develop, introduce and implement water harvesting practices at the community level to promote drought-resistant crops.

Keywords: migration, vulnerability, awareness, Drought

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Authors: Jiří Barta, Oldřich Svoboda

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This article deals with the issue of practical training of the management staff during emergency events in the frame of critical infrastructure. Critical infrastructure represents one of the possible targets of destructive activities as well as operational accidents and incidents which can seriously influence the functioning of the system of ensuring the basic needs of the inhabitants. Therefore, protection of critical infrastructure and training of the staff in dealing with emergencies becomes a broadly discussed topic. Nowadays, the market offers a wide range of simulation tools which proclaim that they are suitable for practical training of management staff and completing their tasks. Another group of programs declares that they are not primarily designed for this type of simulations. However, after some minor adaptations, for example by adding or changing users‘ roles, they are able to fulfil the needs of practical training as well as the process of emergency simulation. This paper characterises and selects simulators and programs for simulating emergency events.

Keywords: computer simulation, Symos´97, simulation software, harmful substances, Konstruktivní simulace, SIMEX

Procedia PDF Downloads 249

Authors: Gregory Vigneaux

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The capacity to anticipate future events across varying time scales is integral to the effective operation of both emergency management and emergency services organizations. This paper provides fresh insight into anticipation by first offering a novel conceptualization of organizations in both fields by twisting together socio-technical systems and autopoietic theory. The result of this intertwining of theory is a view of emergency management and emergency services organizations as self-reproducing systems driven by socio-technical processes contingent upon both inflows and outflows across a boundary produced by the system’s own activity. Flowing from this perspective is an approach to anticipation that extends from a system’s intent of continuing to reproduce its identity over a dynamic landscape. This discussion takes a pragmatic turn through Maturana and Verden-Zöller’s domains of structural change, classifying anticipated events and connecting them with types of responses involving inflows, outflows, and socio-technical processes.

Keywords: risk, anticipation, organizations, planning, transformation, identity

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Pratima Tatke, Archana Avhad, Bhanu Duggal, Meeta Rajivlochan, Sujata Saunik, Pradip Vyas, Nidhi Pandey, Aditee Dalvi, Jyothi Subramanian

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Background: Smoking is well established risk factor for the development and progression of coronary artery disease. It is strongly related to morbidity and mortality from cardiovascular causes. The aim of this study is to observe effect of smoking status on percutaneous coronary intervention(PCI) after 1 year. Methods: 2527 patients who underwent PCI at different hospital of Maharashtra(India) from 2012 to 2015 under the health insurance scheme which is launched by Health department, Government of Maharashtra for below poverty line(BPL) families which covers cardiology. Informed consent of patients was taken .They were followed by telephonic survey after 6months to 1year of PCI . Outcomes of interest included myocardial infarction, restenosis, cardiac rehospitalization, death, and a composite of events after PCI. Made group of two non smokers-1861 and smokers (including patients who quit at time of PCI )-659. Results: Statistical Analysis using Pearson’s chi square test revealed that there was trend seen of increasing incidence of death, Myocardial infarction and Restenosis in smokers than non smokers .Smokers had a greater death risk compared to nonsmoker; 5.7% and 5.1% respectively p=0.518. Also Repeat procedures (2.1% vs. 1.5% p=0.222), breathlessness (17.8% vs. 18.20% p=0.1) and Myocardial Infarction (7.3% vs. 10%) high in smoker than non smokers. Conclusion: Major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were observed even after successful PCI in smokers. Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention should be encouraged to stop smoking.

Keywords: coronary artery diseases, major adverse cardiovascular events, percutaneous coronary intervention, smoking

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Authors: Katarzyna Pasternak

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Experiencing the meaning of life is widely recognised as a vital element of well-being and central human motivation. Studies have shown that a higher meaning of life is associated, among other things, with a higher quality of life, higher levels of happiness and better declared health. The subject of the study is the meaning in life measured with The Meaning in Life Questionnaire and the presence of such emotions as nostalgia, awe and hope, and the content of imaginations measured after temporal mental simulations in Americans and Poles. The respondents had to imagine themselves in future, in 40 years and describe two events that would take place at that time. Next, participants assessed the importance of the events described by them, recognised whether during their journey through time they felt awe, hope and nostalgia, and answered the questionnaire examining the meaning in life. 204 (102 from Poland 102 from the USA ) people aged 21 to 60 participated in the study. The study checked whether there were differences in the content of the imaginations of the respondents from Poland and USA, and whether there were statistically significant difference between the declared sense of meaning in life among participants from both countries. The result of the study hane shown that there were no differences in the overall result obtained by the participants in The Meaning in Life Questionnaire , while there were statistically significant differences among the subscales of the questionnaire. It turned out that Americans have a higher presence of meaning in life than Poles, but they obtained lower results in searching of meaning in life. Studies have also shown that there was a statistically significant difference between Poles and Americans in feeling awe after a mental simulation. Poles felt higher level of awe. Images about the future differed between Poles and Americans. Poles judged that the events they described were very important to them. Interestingly, the content of American participants’ imaginations was dominated by topics related to the future of the world, ecology and world peace. There were also ideas about nice moments spent with friends and family. Among Poles, ideas related to professional career and development as well as family events dominated. Research shows that despite the lack of differences in the general meaning in life, Poles are more focused on searching for meaning in life than Americans. The study shows interesting differences between the two cultures.

Keywords: meaning in life, mental simulations, imaginations, temporal mental simulations, future, cultural differences

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Authors: A. Paz, M. Khadka, N. Veeramisti, B. Morris

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There is a continuous large number of crashes involving pedestrians in Nevada despite the numerous safety mechanisms currently used at roadway crossings. Hence, additional as well as more effective mechanisms are required to reduce crashes in Las Vegas, in particular, and Nevada in general. A potential mechanism to reduce conflicts between pedestrians and vehicles is a High-intensity Activated crossWalK (HAWK) signal. This study evaluates the effects of such signals at a particular site in Las Vegas. Video data were collected using two cameras, facing the eastbound and westbound traffic. One week of video data before and after the deployment of the signal were collected to capture the behavior of both pedestrians and drivers. T-test analyses of pedestrian waiting time at the curb, curb-to-curb crossing time, total crossing time, jaywalking events, and near-crash events show that the HAWK system provides significant benefits.

Keywords: pedestrian crashes, HAWK signal, traffic safety, pedestrian danger index

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Authors: Nashed Atef Nashed Farag

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Introduction: Reporting adverse events following vaccination remains a challenge. WHO has mandated pharmacovigilance centers around the world to submit Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI) reports from different countries to a large electronic database of adverse drug event data called Vigibase. Despite sufficient information about AEFIs on Vigibase, they are not available to the general public. However, the WHO has an alternative website called VigiAccess, an open-access website that serves as an archive for reported adverse reactions and AEFIs. The aim of the study was to establish a reporting model for a number of commonly used vaccines in the VigiAccess system. Methods: On February 5, 2018, VigiAccess comprehensively searched for ESSI reports on the measles vaccine, oral polio vaccine (OPV), yellow fever vaccine, pneumococcal vaccine, rotavirus vaccine, meningococcal vaccine, tetanus vaccine, and tuberculosis vaccine (BCG). These are reports from all pharmacovigilance centers around the world since they joined the WHO Drug Monitoring Program. Results: After an extensive search, VigiAccess found 9,062 AEFIs from the measles vaccine, 185,829 AEFIs from the OPV vaccine, 24,577 AEFIs from the yellow fever vaccine, 317,208 AEFIs from the pneumococcal vaccine, 73,513 AEFIs from the rotavirus vaccine, and 145,447 AEFIs from meningococcal cal vaccine, 22,781 EI FI vaccines against tetanus and 35,556 BCG vaccines against AEFI. Conclusion: The study found that among the eight vaccines examined, pneumococcal vaccines were associated with the highest number of AEFIs, while measles vaccines were associated with the fewest AEFIs.

Keywords: surgical approach, anatomical approach, decompression, axillary nerve, quadrangular space adverse events following immunization, cameroon, COVID-19 vaccines, nOPV, ODK vaccines, adverse reactions, VigiAccess, adverse event reporting

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Authors: Kuei-Chun Liu, Yu-Yu Lai, Ching-Hong Wu, Hsiao-Han Huang

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The number of Android applications (Apps) has increased rapidly in recent years. In order to get better programmatic control over Apps, we designed a record-and-replay mechanism to record Android input events and accessibility service events then make shortcuts. The shortcut is useful for complicated routine works and to Android beginners. We also generated graphical user interface (GUI) API by these shortcuts. GUI API helps developers make integrated Apps which can control other third-party Apps even if the official API is not offered by their providers. We demonstrated the usage of GUI API with two integrated Apps: Universal Bank App and Universal Communication App. Universal Bank App integrates three accounts from different banks and Universal Communication App integrates Line with WhatsApp. Both of them show the advantage of extendable GUI API. Furthermore, using our mechanism, shortcuts could replay almost all of the Top-100 Apps on Google Play correctly. In sum, the approach we present can help both Android developers and general users.

Keywords: graphical user interface, GUI API, record-and-replay, third-party apps

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Authors: Yangze Lan, Ruihua Xv, Feng Zhou, Yijia Shan, Longhao Zhang, Qinghui Xv

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Receiving and dispatching trains is an important part of railroad organization, and the risky evaluation of operating personnel is still reflected by scores, lacking further excavation of wrong answers and operating accidents. With natural language processing (NLP) technology, this study extracts the keywords and key phrases of 40 relevant risk events about receiving and dispatching trains and reclassifies the risk events into 8 categories, such as train approach and signal risks, dispatching command risks, and so on. Based on the historical risk data of personnel, the K-Means clustering method is used to classify the risk level of personnel. The result indicates that the high-risk operating personnel need to strengthen the training of train receiving and dispatching operations towards essential trains and abnormal situations.

Keywords: receiving and dispatching trains, natural language processing, risk evaluation, K-means clustering

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: M. E. Razipoor, T. Masunaga, K. Sato, M. S. Saboory

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Estimation of soil erosion is economically and environmentally important in Herat, Afghanistan. Degradation of soil has negative impact (decreased soil fertility, destroyed soil structure, and consequently soil sealing and crusting) on life of Herat residents. Water and wind are the main erosive factors causing soil erosion in Herat. Furthermore, scarce vegetation cover, exacerbated by socioeconomic constraint, and steep slopes accelerate soil erosion. To sustain soil productivity and reduce soil erosion impact on human life, due to sustaining agricultural production and auditing the environment, it is needed to quantify the magnitude and extent of soil erosion in a spatial domain. Thus, this study aims to estimate soil loss potential and its spatial distribution in Herat, Afghanistan by applying RUSLE in GIS environment. The rainfall erosivity factor ranged between values of 125 and 612 (MJ mm ha-1 h-1 year-1). Soil erodibility factor varied from 0.036 to 0.073 (Mg h MJ-1 mm-1). Slope length and steepness factor (LS) values were between 0.03 and 31.4. The vegetation cover factor (C), derived from NDVI analysis of Landsat-8 OLI scenes, resulting in range of 0.03 to 1. Support practice factor (P) were assigned to a value of 1, since there is not significant mitigation practices in the study area. Soil erosion potential map was the product of these factors. Mean soil erosion rate of Herat Province was 29 Mg ha-1 year-1 that ranged from 0.024 Mg ha-1 year-1 in flat areas with dense vegetation cover to 778 Mg ha-1 year-1 in sharp slopes with high rainfall but least vegetation cover. Based on land cover map of Afghanistan, areas with soil loss rate higher than soil loss tolerance (8 Mg ha-1 year-1) occupies 98% of Forests, 81% rangelands, 64% barren lands, 60% rainfed lands, 28% urban area and 18% irrigated Lands.

Keywords: Afghanistan, erosion, GIS, Herat, RUSLE

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Authors: Alaa Allakany, Koji Okamura

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Multicast technology is an efficient and scalable technology for data distribution in order to optimize network resources. However, in the IP network, the responsibility for management of multicast groups is distributed among network routers, which causes some limitations such as delays in processing group events, high bandwidth consumption and redundant tree calculation. Software Defined Networking (SDN) represented by OpenFlow presented as a solution for many problems, in SDN the control plane and data plane are separated by shifting the control and management to a remote centralized controller, and the routers are used as a forwarder only. In this paper we will proposed fast switching mechanism for solving the problem of link failure in multicast tree based on Tabu Search heuristic algorithm and modifying the functions of OpenFlow switch to fasts switch to the pack up sub tree rather than sending to the controller. In this work we will implement multicasting OpenFlow controller, this centralized controller is a core part in our multicasting approach, which is responsible for 1- constructing the multicast tree, 2- handling the multicast group events and multicast state maintenance. And finally modifying OpenFlow switch functions for fasts switch to pack up paths. Forwarders, forward the multicast packet based on multicast routing entries which were generated by the centralized controller. Tabu search will be used as heuristic algorithm for construction near optimum multicast tree and maintain multicast tree to still near optimum in case of join or leave any members from multicast group (group events).

Keywords: multicast tree, software define networks, tabu search, OpenFlow

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Authors: Javed Iqbal

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Filling of Xiangjiaba Reservoir Lake in Southwest China triggered and re-activated numerous landslides due to water fluctuation. In order to understand the relationship between reservoirs and slope instability, a typical reservoir landslide (Dasha landslide) at right bank of Jinsha River was selected as a case study for in-depth investigations. The detailed field investigations were carried out in order to identify the landslide with respect to its surroundings and to find out the slip-surface. Boreholes were drilled in order to find out the subsurface lithology and the depth of failure of Dasha landslide. The in-situ geotechnical tests were performed, and the soil samples from exposed slip surface were retrieved for geotechnical laboratory analysis. Finally, stability analysis was done using 3D strength reduction method under different conditions of reservoir water level fluctuations and rainfall conditions. The in-depth investigations show that the Dasha landslide is a bedding rockslide which was once activated in 1986. The topography of Dasha landslide is relatively flat, while the back scarp and local terrain are relatively steep. The landslide area is about 29 × 104 m², and the maximum thickness of the landslide deposits revealed by drilling is about 40 m with the average thickness being about 20 m, and the volume is thus estimated being about 580 × 10⁴ m³. Bedrock in the landslide area is composed of Suining Formation of Jurassic age. The main rock type is silty mudstone with sandstone, and bedding orientation is 300~310° ∠ 7~22°. The factor of safety (FOS) of Dasha landslide obtained by 3D strength reduction cannot meet the minimum safety requirement under the working condition of reservoir level fluctuation as designed, with effect of rainfall and rapid drawdown.

Keywords: Dasha landslide, Xiangjiaba reservoir, strength reduction method, bedding rockslide

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Authors: Edward Nartey

Abstract:

Although the boundaries of sustainable performance and growth in the field of service supply chains (SCs) have been broadened by scholars in recent years, research on the impact and promises of Industry 4.0 Destructive Technologies (IDTs) on sustainability performance under disruptive events is still scarce. To mitigate disruptions in the SC and improve efficiency by identifying areas for cost savings, organizations have resorted to investments in digitalization, automation, and control mechanisms in recent years. However, little is known about the sustainability implications for IDT adoption and controls in service SCs, especially during disruptive events. To investigate this paradox, survey data were sought from 223 public health managers across Ghana and analyzed via covariance-based structural equations modelling. The results showed that both formal and informal control have a positive and significant relationship with IDT adoption. In addition, formal control has a significant and positive relationship with environmental and economic sustainability but an insignificant relationship with social sustainability. Furthermore, informal control positively impacts economic performance but has an insignificant relationship with social and environmental sustainability. While the findings highlight the prevalence of the IDTs being initiated by Ghanaian public health institutions (PHIs), this study concludes that the installed control systems in these organizations are inadequate for promoting sustainable SC behaviors under destructive events. Thus, in crisis situations, PHIs need to redesign their control systems to facilitate IDT integration towards sustainability issues in SCs.

Keywords: industry 4.0 destructive technologies, formal control, informal control, sustainable supply chain performance, public health organizations

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Authors: Oleksii Bychkov

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The fundamental difference between randomness and vagueness is that the former requires statistical research. These issues were studied by Zadeh L, Dubois D., Prad A. The theory of possibility works with expert assessments, hypotheses, etc. gives an idea of the characteristics of the problem situation, the nature of the goals and real limitations. Possibility theory examines experiments that are not repeated. The article discusses issues related to the formalization of a fuzzy, uncertain idea of reality. The author proposes to expand the classical model of the theory of possibilities by introducing a measure of necessity. The proposed model of the theory of possibilities allows us to extend the measures of possibility and necessity onto a Boolean while preserving the properties of the measure. Thus, upper and lower estimates are obtained to describe the fact that the event will occur. Knowledge of the patterns that govern mass random, uncertain, fuzzy events allows us to predict how these events will proceed. The article proposed for publication quite fully reveals the essence of the construction and use of the theory of probability and the theory of possibility.

Keywords: possibility, artificial, modeling, axiomatics, intellectual approach

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Authors: Yi-De Liu

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The aim of this paper is to discuss how the construct of networking and social capital can be used to understand the effect events can have on the cultural sector. Based on case study, this research sought the views of those working in the cultural sector on Liverpool’s year as the European Capital of Culture (ECOC). Methodologically, this study involves literature review to prompt theoretical sensitivity, the collection of primary data via online survey (n= 42) and follow-up telephone interviews (n= 8) to explore the emerging findings in more detail. The findings point to a number of ways in which the ECOC constitutes a boost for networking and its effects on city’s cultural sector, including organisational learning, aspiration and leadership. The contributions of this study are two-fold: (1) Evaluating the long-term effects on network formation in the cultural sector following major event; (2) conceptualising the impact assessment of organisational social capital for future ECOC or similar events.

Keywords: network, social capital, cultural impact, european capital of culture

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Authors: Eamin Zahan Heanoy, Asheek Mohammad Shimul

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The purpose of the present study was to address theoretical issues of reminiscence bump in autobiographical memory using the freedom fighters of Bangladesh as participants. It was assumed that they had a lot of negative memories during the liberation war in 1971 and those events would reflect the construction of reminiscence bump. Three hundred and twenty (320) freedom fighters were selected using mixed method (purposive and random) sampling technique. The freedom fighters were taken from 10 randomly chosen districts of 64. The participants recalled and dated autobiographical memories from across the lifespan. The age of the participants was between 50 to 80+ years. Memories were encoded at the time of the age when the events occurred. As expected the reminiscence bump, preferential recall of memories from second and third decade was observed. Results indicate that the bump for the participants was found 16 to 26 years. And most remarkably, they recalled most of the memories from 1971, the liberation war. Different retrieval curve has been found for male and female participants. The results have been discussed in the light of recent developments in reminiscence bump research.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, freedom fighters, liberation war, reminiscence bump

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Authors: Luis Gimeno, Rosmeri da Rocha, Raquel Nieto, Tercio Ambrizzi, Alex Ramos, Anita Drumond

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The transport of moisture from oceanic sources to the continents represents the atmospheric branch of the water cycle, forming the connection between evaporation from the ocean and precipitation over the continents. In this regard two large scale dynamical/meteorological structures appear to play a key role, namely Low Level Jet (LLJ) systems and Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). The former are particularly important in tropical and subtropical regions; the latter is mostly confined to extratropical regions. A key question relates to the anomalies in the transport of moisture observed during natural hazards related to extremes of precipitation (i.e., drought or wet spells). In this study we will be focused on these two major atmospheric moisture transport mechanisms (LLJs and ARs) and its role in precipitation extreme events (droughts and wet spells) in the Amazonia paying particular attention to i) intensification (decreasing) of moisture transport by them and its role in wet spells (droughts), and ii) changes in their positions and occurrence with associated flooding and wet spells.

Keywords: droughts, wet spells, amazonia, LLJs, atmospheric rivers

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Authors: Ibe O. Stephen, Egwuonwu N. Gabriel

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Variations in seismic P-wave velocity and depth resolution resulting from variations in subsurface water saturation were investigated in this study in order to determine the season of the year that gives the most reliable P-wave velocity and depth resolution of the subsurface in Zaria Area, Nigeria. A 2D seismic refraction tomography technique involving an ABEM Terraloc MK6 Seismograph was used to collect data across a borehole of standard log with the centre of the spread situated at the borehole site. Using the same parameters this procedure was repeated along the same spread for at least once in a month for at least eight months in a year for four years. The choice for each survey time depended on when there was significant variation in rainfall data. The seismic data collected were tomographically inverted. The results suggested that the average P-wave velocity ranges of the subsurface in the area are generally higher when the ground was wet than when it was dry. The results also suggested that the overburden of about 9.0 m in thickness, the weathered basement of about 14.0 m in thickness and the fractured basement at a depth of about 23.0 m best fitted the borehole log. This best fit was consistently obtained in the months between March and May when the average total rainfall was about 44.8 mm in the area. The results had also shown that the velocity ranges in both dry and wet formations fall within the standard ranges as provided in literature. In terms of velocity, this study has not in any way clearly distinguished the quality of the results of the seismic data obtained when the subsurface was dry from the results of the data collected when the subsurface was wet. It was concluded that for more detailed and reliable seismic studies in Zaria Area and its environs with similar climatic condition, the surveys are best conducted between March and May. The most reliable seismic data for depth resolution are most likely obtainable in the area between March and May.

Keywords: best season, variations in depth resolution, variations in P-wave velocity, variations in subsurface water saturation, Zaria area

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Authors: Hashim Isam Jameel Al-Safi, P. Ranjan Sarukkalige

Abstract:

Climate change is likely to impact the Australian continent by changing the trends of rainfall, increasing temperature, and affecting the accessibility of water quantity and quality. This study investigates the possible impacts of future climate change on the hydrological system of the Harvey River catchment in Western Australia by using the conceptual modelling approach (HBV mode). Daily observations of rainfall and temperature and the long-term monthly mean potential evapotranspiration, from six weather stations, were available for the period (1961-2015). The observed streamflow data at Clifton Park gauging station for 33 years (1983-2015) in line with the observed climate variables were used to run, calibrate and validate the HBV-model prior to the simulation process. The calibrated model was then forced with the downscaled future climate signals from a multi-model ensemble of fifteen GCMs of the CMIP3 model under three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) to simulate the future runoff at the catchment outlet. Two periods were selected to represent the future climate conditions including the mid (2046-2065) and late (2080-2099) of the 21^st century. A control run, with the reference climate period (1981-2000), was used to represent the current climate status. The modelling outcomes show an evident reduction in the mean annual streamflow during the mid of this century particularly for the A1B scenario relative to the control run. Toward the end of the century, all scenarios show a relatively high reduction trends in the mean annual streamflow, especially the A1B scenario, compared to the control run. The decline in the mean annual streamflow ranged between 4-15% during the mid of the current century and 9-42% by the end of the century.

Keywords: climate change impact, Harvey catchment, HBV model, hydrological modelling, GCMs, LARS-WG

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Authors: Asanka Bulathwatta

Abstract:

This Study tries to figure out the role of emotional Intelligence for developing coping strategies among adolescents who face traumatic events. Late adolescence students who have enrolled into the University education (Bachelor students/first-year students) would be selected as the sample. University education is an important stage of students’ academic life. Therefore, all students need to develop their competencies to attain the goal of passing examinations and also to developing their wisdom related to the scientific knowledge they gathered through their academic life. Study to be conducted in a cross-cultural manner and it will be taking place in Germany and Sri Lanka. The sample will be consisting of 200 students from each country. Late adolescence is a critical period of the human being as it is foot step in their life which acquiring the emotional and social qualities in their social life. There are many adolescents who have affected by aggression related traumatic events during their lifespan but have not been identified or treated. More specifically, there are numerous burning issues within the first year of the university students namely, ragging done by seniors to juniors, bulling, invalidation and issues raise based on attitudes changes and orientation issues. Those factors can be traumatic for both their academic and day to day lifestyle. Identifying the students who are with emotional damages and their resiliency afterward the aggression related traumas and effective rehabilitation from the traumatic events is immensely needed in order to facilitate university students for their academic achievements and social life within the University education. Research findings in Germany show that students shows more interpersonal traumas, life-threatening illnesses and death of someone related are common in German sample.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, agression, trauma, coping

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Authors: Yusuf Dawa Sidi, Abdulrahman Bulama Bizi

Abstract:

The most dependable and precise source of climate data is often gauge observation. However, long-term records of gauge observations, on the other hand, are unavailable in many regions around the world. In recent years, a number of gridded climate datasets with high spatial and temporal resolutions have emerged as viable alternatives to gauge-based measurements. However, it is crucial to thoroughly evaluate their performance prior to utilising them in hydroclimatic applications. Therefore, this study aims to assess the effectiveness of NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) datasets in accurately estimating precipitation and temperature patterns within the dry region of Nigeria from 1990 to 2020. The study employs widely used statistical metrics and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) to effectively capture the monthly variability of precipitation and temperature and inter-annual anomalies in rainfall. The findings suggest that CRU exhibited superior performance compared to NASA POWER in terms of monthly precipitation and minimum and maximum temperatures, demonstrating a high correlation and much lower error values for both RMSE and MAE. Nevertheless, NASA POWER has exhibited a moderate agreement with gauge observations in accurately replicating monthly precipitation. The analysis of the SPI reveals that the CRU product exhibits superior performance compared to NASA POWER in accurately reflecting inter-annual variations in rainfall anomalies. The findings of this study indicate that the CRU gridded product is often regarded as the most favourable gridded precipitation product.

Keywords: CRU, climate change, precipitation, SPI, temperature

Procedia PDF Downloads 78