Search results for: quantitative modelling

Authors: Akiode Ayobami, Akiode Akinsewa, Odeku Mojisola, Salako Busola, Odutolu Omobola, Nuhu Khadija

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Purpose: Evidence exists that family planning use can contribute to reduction in infant and maternal mortality in any country. Despite these benefits, contraceptive use in Nigeria still remains very low, only 10% among married women. Understanding factors that predict contraceptive use is very important in order to improve the situation. In this paper, we analysed data from the 2013 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) to better understand predictors of contraceptive use in Nigeria. The use of logistics regression and other traditional models in this type of situation is not appropriate as they do not account for social structure influence brought about by the hierarchical nature of the data on response variable. We therefore used multilevel modelling to explore the determinants of contraceptive use in order to account for the significant variation in modern contraceptive use by socio-demographic, and other proximate variables across the different Nigerian states. Method: This data has a two-level hierarchical structure. We considered the data of 26, 403 married women of reproductive age at level 1 and nested them within the 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja at level 2. We modelled use of modern contraceptive against demographic variables, being told about FP at health facility, heard of FP on TV, Magazine or radio, husband desire for more children nested within the state. Results: Our results showed that the independent variables in the model were significant predictors of modern contraceptive use. The estimated variance component for the null model, random intercept, and random slope models were significant (p=0.00), indicating that the variation in contraceptive use across the Nigerian states is significant, and needs to be accounted for in order to accurately determine the predictors of contraceptive use, hence the data is best fitted by the multilevel model. Only being told about family planning at the health facility and religion have a significant random effect, implying that their predictability of contraceptive use varies across the states. Conclusion and Recommendation: Results showed that providing FP information at the health facility and religion needs to be considered when programming to improve contraceptive use at the state levels.

Keywords: multilevel modelling, family planning, predictors, Nigeria

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Authors: A. Qayyum, G. Bilal, H. M. Waheed

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The objectives of the study were to determine phenotypic variations in Hairy goats for quantitative and qualitative traits and to analyze the relationship between different body measurements and body weight in Hairy goats. Data were collected from the Barani Livestock Production Research Institute (BLPRI) at Kherimurat, Attock and potential farmers who were raising hairy goats in the Potohar region. Twelve (12) phenotypic parameters were measured on 99 adult Hairy goat (18 male and 81 female). Four qualitative and 8 quantitative traits were investigated. Qualitative traits were visually observed and expressed as percentages. Descriptive analysis was done on quantitative variables. All hairy goats had predominately black body coat color (72%), whereas white (11%) and brown (11%) body coat color were also observed. Both the pigmented (45.5%) and non-pigmented (54.5%) type of body skin were observed in the goat breed. Horns were present in the majority (91%) of animals. Most of the animals (83%) had straight facial head profiles. Analysis was performed in SAS On-Demand for Academics using PROC mixed model procedure. Overall means ± SD of body weight (BW), body length (BL), height at wither (HAW), ear length (EL), head length (HL), heart girth (HG), tail length (TL) and MC (muzzle circumference) were 41.44 ± 12.21 kg, 66.40 ± 7.87 cm, 75.17 ± 7.83 cm, 22.99 ± 6.75 cm, 15.07 ± 3.44 cm, 76.54 ± 8.80 cm, 18.28 ± 4.18 cm, and 26.24 ± 5.192 cm, respectively. Sex had a significant effect on BL and HG (P < 0.05), whereas BW, HAW, EL, HL, TL, and MC were not significantly affected (P > 0.05). The herd had a significant effect on BW, BL, HAW, HL, HG, and TL (P < 0.05) except EL and MC (P > 0.05). Hairy goats appear to have the potential for selection as mutton breeds in the Potohar region of Punjab. The findings of the present study would help in the characterization and conservation of hairy goats using genetic and genomic tools in the future.

Keywords: body weight, Hairy goat, type traits Punjab, Pakistan

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Authors: Samuel McLennan, Tane Moleta, Andre Brown, Marc Aurel Schnabel

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The development of Ecclesiastical buildings within New Zealand has produced some unique design characteristics that take influence from both international styles and local building methods. What this research looks at is how procedural modelling can be used to define such common characteristics and understand how they are shared and developed within different examples of a similar architectural style. This will be achieved through the creation of procedural digital reconstructions of the various timber Gothic Churches built during the 19th century in the city of Wellington, New Zealand. ‘Procedural modelling’ is a digital modelling technique that has been growing in popularity, particularly within the game and film industry, as well as other fields such as industrial design and architecture. Such a design method entails the creation of a parametric ‘ruleset’ that can be easily adjusted to produce many variations of geometry, rather than a single geometry as is typically found in traditional CAD software. Key precedents within this area of digital heritage includes work by Haegler, Müller, and Gool, Nicholas Webb and Andre Brown, and most notably Mark Burry. What these precedents all share is how the forms of the reconstructed architecture have been generated using computational rules and an understanding of the architects’ geometric reasoning. This is also true within this research as Gothic architecture makes use of only a select range of forms (such as the pointed arch) that can be accurately replicated using the same standard geometric techniques originally used by the architect. The methodology of this research involves firstly establishing a sample group of similar buildings, documenting the existing samples, researching any lost samples to find evidence such as architectural plans, photos, and written descriptions, and then culminating all the findings into a single 3D procedural asset within the software ‘Houdini’. The end result will be an adjustable digital model that contains all the architectural components of the sample group, such as the various naves, buttresses, and windows. These components can then be selected and arranged to create visualisations of the sample group. Because timber gothic churches in New Zealand share many details between designs, the created collection of architectural components can also be used to approximate similar designs not included in the sample group, such as designs found beyond the Wellington Region. This creates an initial library of architectural components that can be further expanded on to encapsulate as wide of a sample size as desired. Such a methodology greatly improves upon the efficiency and adjustability of digital modelling compared to current practices found in digital heritage reconstruction. It also gives greater accuracy to speculative design, as a lack of evidence for lost structures can be approximated using components from still existing or better-documented examples. This research will also bring attention to the cultural significance these types of buildings have within the local area, addressing the public’s general unawareness of architectural history that is identified in the Wellington based research ‘Moving Images in Digital Heritage’ by Serdar Aydin et al.

Keywords: digital forensics, digital heritage, gothic architecture, Houdini, procedural modelling

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Authors: Kinga Anna Gajda

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The aim of the paper is presented the results of the research project titled: Regional or trans-regional cultural education using the example of museums. In the frame of the project there were prepared: Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the level of schools’ use of museum programs in the period 2010-2015; Qualitative and quantitative analysis of interprovincial co-operation between schools and cultural institutions; intevied and questionnaries. That was a research materials. Informal education may include classes that use visual culture - museum lessons. The paper will examine what range of programs is offered schools by the museums. On the basis of the conducted analysis, the paper will verify what programs addressing the schools are directly coincided with the material taught in schools or as a supplement to existing curriculum. The paper will answer the question is the museum-based education the part of school education, the teaching parallel or a separate category of teaching.

Keywords: museum-based education, school, parallel teaching, curriculum

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Authors: Valeda Dent

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This study explores reading and library factors related to secondary school student academic outcomes in rural areas in Uganda. This mixed methods study utilized quantitative data collected as part of a more extensive project to explore six student factors in relation to students’ school, library, and home environments. The Kitengesa Community Library in Uganda (www.kitengesalibrary.org) served as the site for this study. The factors explored for this study include reading frequency, library use frequency, library access, overall grade average (OGA), and presence and type of reading materials in the home. Results indicated that both reading frequency and certain types of reading materials read for recreational purposes are correlated with higher OGA. Reading frequency was positively correlated with student OGA for all students.

Keywords: rural village libraries, secondary school students, reading, academic achievement

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Authors: Philipp Galkin

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Government policy is a critical factor in the understanding of energy markets. Regardless, it is rarely approached systematically from a research perspective. Gaining a precise understanding of what policies exist, their intended outcomes, geographical extent, duration, evolution, etc. would enable the research community to answer a variety of questions that, for now, are either oversimplified or ignored. Policy, on its surface, also seems a rather unstructured and qualitative undertaking. There may be quantitative components, but incorporating the concept of policy analysis into quantitative analysis remains a challenge. The KAPSARC Energy Policy Database (KEPD) is intended to address these two energy policy research limitations. Our approach is to represent policies within a quantitative library of the specific policy measures contained within a set of legal documents. Each of these measures is recorded into the database as a single entry characterized by a set of qualitative and quantitative attributes. Initially, we have focused on the major laws at the national level that regulate coal in China. However, KAPSARC is engaged in various efforts to apply this methodology to other energy policy domains. To ensure scalability and sustainability of our project, we are exploring semantic processing using automated computer algorithms. Automated coding can provide a more convenient input data for human coders and serve as a quality control option. Our initial findings suggest that the methodology utilized in KEPD could be applied to any set of energy policies. It also provides a convenient tool to facilitate understanding in the energy policy realm enabling the researcher to quickly identify, summarize, and digest policy documents and specific policy measures. The KEPD captures a wide range of information about each individual policy contained within a single policy document. This enables a variety of analyses, such as structural comparison of policy documents, tracing policy evolution, stakeholder analysis, and exploring interdependencies of policies and their attributes with exogenous datasets using statistical tools. The usability and broad range of research implications suggest a need for the continued expansion of the KEPD to encompass a larger scope of policy documents across geographies and energy sectors.

Keywords: China, energy policy, policy analysis, policy database

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Authors: Juliza Hidayati, Sawarni Hasibuan

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PT. XYZ is a manufacturing company that produces Crude Palm Oil (CPO). The fierce competition in the global markets not only between companies but also a competition between supply chains. This research aims to analyze the supply chain and value chain of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) in the company. Data analysis method used is qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. The qualitative analysis describes supply chain and value chain, while the quantitative analysis is used to find out value added and the establishment of the value chain. Based on the analysis, the value chain of crude palm oil (CPO) in the company consists of four main actors that are suppliers of raw materials, processing, distributor, and customer. The value chain analysis consists of two actors; those are palm oil plantation and palm oil processing plant. The palm oil plantation activities include nurseries, planting, plant maintenance, harvesting, and shipping. The palm oil processing plant activities include reception, sterilizing, thressing, pressing, and oil classification. The value added of palm oil plantations was 72.42% and the palm oil processing plant was 10.13%.

Keywords: palm oil, value chain, value added, supply chain

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Authors: M.St. Węglowski, D. Miara, S. Błacha, J. Dworak, J. Rykała, K. Kwieciński, J. Pikuła, G. Ziobro, A. Szafron, P. Zimierska-Nowak, M. Richert, P. Noga

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In the paper the results of welding of car’s air-conditioning elements are presented. These systems based on, mainly, the environmental unfriendly refrigerants. Thus, the producers of cars will have to stop using traditional refrigerant and to change it to carbon dioxide (R744). This refrigerant is environmental friendly. However, it should be noted that the air condition system working with R744 refrigerant operates at high temperature (up to 150 °C) and high pressure (up to 130 bar). These two parameters are much higher than for other refrigerants. Thus new materials, design as well as joining technologies are strongly needed for these systems. AISI 304 and 316L steels as well as aluminium alloys 5xxx are ranked among the prospective materials. As a joining process laser welding, plasma welding, electron beam welding as well as high rotary friction welding can be applied. In the study, the metallographic examination based on light microscopy as well as SEM was applied to estimate the quality of welded joints. The analysis of welding was supported by numerical modelling based on Sysweld software. The results indicated that using laser, plasma and electron beam welding, it is possible to obtain proper quality of welds in stainless steel. Moreover, high rotary friction welding allows to guarantee the metallic continuity in the aluminium welded area. The metallographic examination revealed that the grain growth in the heat affected zone (HAZ) in laser and electron beam welded joints were not observed. It is due to low heat input and short welding time. The grain growth and subgrains can be observed at room temperature when the solidification mode is austenitic. This caused low microstructural changes during solidification. The columnar grain structure was found in the weld metal. Meanwhile, the equiaxed grains were detected in the interface. The numerical modelling of laser welding process allowed to estimate the temperature profile in the welded joint as well as predicts the dimensions of welds. The agreement between FEM analysis and experimental data was achieved.  

Keywords: car’s air–conditioning, microstructure, numerical modelling, welding

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Authors: Thulile Ndou

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The purpose of this study was to examine the challenges encountered in the mediation of attracting and recruiting academic expatriates who in turn encounter their own obstacles in adjusting into and settling in their host country, host academic institutions and host communities. The none-existence of literature on attraction, placement and management of academic expatriates in the South African context has been acknowledged. Moreover, Higher Education Institutions in South Africa have voiced concerns relating to delayed and prolonged recruitment and selection processes experienced in the employment process of academic expatriates. Once employed, academic expatriates should be supported and acquainted with the surroundings, the local communities as well as be assisted to establish working relations with colleagues in order to facilitate their adjustment and integration process. Hence, an employer should play a critical role in facilitating the adjustment of academic expatriates. This mixed methods study was located in four Higher Education Institutions based in the KwaZulu-Natal province, in South Africa. The explanatory sequential design approach was deployed in the study. The merits of this approach were chiefly that it employed both the quantitative and qualitative techniques of inquiry. Therefore, the study examined and interrogated its subject from a multiplicity of quantitative and qualitative vantage points, yielding a much more enriched and enriching illumination. Mixing the strengths of both the quantitative and the qualitative techniques delivered much more durable articulation and understanding of the subject. A 5-point Likert scale questionnaire was used to collect quantitative data relating to interaction adjustment, general adjustment and work adjustment from academic expatriates. One hundred and forty two (142) academic expatriates participated in the quantitative study. Qualitative data relating to employment process and support offered to academic expatriates was collected through a structured questionnaire and semi-structured interviews. A total of 48 respondents; including, line managers, human resources practitioners, and academic expatriates participated in the qualitative study. The Independent T-test, ANOVA and Descriptive Statistics were performed to analyse, interpret and make meaning of quantitative data and thematic analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. The qualitative results revealed that academic talent is sourced from outside the borders of the country because of the academic skills shortage in almost all academic disciplines especially in the disciplines associated with Science, Engineering and Accounting. However, delays in work permit application process made it difficult to finalise the recruitment and selection process on time. Furthermore, the quantitative results revealed that academic expatriates experience general and interaction adjustment challenges associated with the use of local language and understanding of local culture. However, female academic expatriates were found to be better adjusted in the two areas as compared to male academic expatriates. Moreover, significant mean differences were found between institutions suggesting that academic expatriates based in rural areas experienced adjustment challenges differently from the academic expatriates based in urban areas. The study gestured to the need for policy revisions in the area of immigration, human resources and academic administration.

Keywords: academic expatriates, recruitment and selection, interaction and general adjustment, work adjustment

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Authors: Leah Wright, Trevor Townsend

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Mode choice models are crucial instruments in the analysis of travel behaviour. These models show the relationship between an individual’s choice of transportation mode for a given O-D pair and the individual’s socioeconomic characteristics such as household size and income level, age and/or gender, and the features of the transportation system. The most popular functional forms of these models are based on Utility-Based Choice Theory, which addresses the uncertainty in the decision-making process with the use of an error term. However, with the development of artificial intelligence, many researchers have started to take a different approach to travel demand modelling. In recent times, researchers have looked at using neural networks, fuzzy logic and rough set theory to develop improved mode choice formulas. The concept of cloud theory has recently been introduced to model decision-making under uncertainty. Unlike the previously mentioned theories, cloud theory recognises a relationship between randomness and fuzziness, two of the most common types of uncertainty. This research aims to investigate the use of cloud theory in mode choice models. This paper highlights the conceptual framework of the mode choice model using cloud theory. Merging decision-making under uncertainty and mode choice models is state of the art. The cloud theory model is expected to address the issues and concerns with the nested logit and improve the design of mode choice models and their use in travel demand.

Keywords: Cloud theory, decision-making, mode choice models, travel behaviour, uncertainty

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Authors: Faihan Alotaibi

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This study explores Saudi teachers’ perceptions of the efficacy of social stories in the development of social skills in students with autism in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in two phases. Data were collected in sequential quantitative and qualitative phases. Participants in this study were 100 teachers in the quantitative phase and 15 teachers were interviewed. In this poster, the researcher will present the data result in the qualitative second phase in which an understanding of teachers’ experiences was deepened by conducting semi-structured interviews with a purposeful sample of fifteen teachers of diverse experience, covering six initial themes: the social story concept, sources of social stories, the effectiveness of social stories in improving social skills in students with autism, barriers to using social stories for students with autism, cultural consideration and context of social stories, and factors which contribute to the best use of social stories to developing of social skills for students with autism.

Keywords: autism, social storyteachers’ perceptions, intervention, social skills

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Authors: A. Nurgiartiningsih, G. Ciptadi, S. B. Siswijono

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This research was done to identify the performance and breeding potency of Local Buffalo in Kangean Island, Sumenep, East Java, Indonesia. Materials used were buffalo and farmer in Kangean Island. Method used was survey with purposive sampling method. Qualitative trait and existing breeding system including the type of production system were directly observed. Quantitative trait consisted of chest girth, body weight and wither height were measured and recorded. Data were analyzed using analysis of variance applying software GENSTAT 14. Results showed the purposes of buffalo breeding in Kangean Island were for production of calves, saving, religion tradition, and buffalo racing. The combination between grazing and cut and carry system were applied in Kangean Island. Forage, grass and agricultural waste product were available abundantly especially, during the wet season. Buffalo in Kangean Island was categorized as swamp buffalo with 48 chromosomes. Observation on qualitative trait indicated that there were three skin color types: gray (81.25%), red (10.42%) and white/albino (8.33%). Analysis on quantitative trait showed that there was no significant difference between male and female buffalo. The performance of male buffalo was 132.56 cm, 119.33 cm and 174.11 cm, for the mean of body length, whither height and chest girth, respectively. The performance of female buffalo were 129.8 cm, 114.0 cm and 166.2 cm, for mean of body length, wither height and chest girth (CG), respectively. The performance of local buffalo in Kangean Island was categorized well. Kangean Island could be promoted as center of buffalo breeding and conservation. For optimal improvement of population number and its genetics value, government policy in buffalo breeding program should be implemented.

Keywords: chromosome, qualitative trait, quantitative trait, swamp buffalo

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Authors: Girts Zageris, Vadims Geza, Andris Jakovics

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Gasification processes are of great interest due to their generation of renewable energy in the form of syngas from biodegradable waste. It is, therefore, important to study the factors that play a role in the efficiency of gasification and the longevity of the machines in which gasification takes place. This study focuses on the latter, aiming to optimize an entrained-flow gasifier by reducing slag formation on its walls to reduce maintenance costs. A CFD mathematical model for an entrained-flow gasifier is constructed – the model of an actual gasifier is rendered in 3D and appropriately meshed. Then, the turbulent gas flow in the gasifier is modeled with the realizable k-ε approach, taking devolatilization, combustion and coal gasification into account. Various such simulations are conducted, obtaining results for different air inlet positions and by tracking particles of varying sizes undergoing devolatilization and gasification. The model identifies potential problematic zones where most particles collide with the gasifier walls, indicating risk regions where ash deposits could most likely form. In conclusion, the effects on the formation of an ash layer of air inlet positioning and particle size allowed in the main gasifier tank are discussed, and possible solutions for decreasing a number of undesirable deposits are proposed. Additionally, an estimate of the impact of different factors such as temperature, gas properties and gas content, and different forces acting on the particles undergoing gasification is given.

Keywords: biomass particles, gasification, slag formation, turbulence k-ε modelling

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Authors: Mitra Sadoughi

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This study presents the knowledge-sharing model based on individual and organizational factors related to faculty members. To achieve this goal, individual and organizational factors were presented through qualitative research in the form of open codes, axial, and selective observations; then, the final model was obtained using structural equation model. Participants included 1,719 faculty members of the Azad Universities, Mazandaran Province, Region 3. The samples related to the qualitative survey included 25 faculty members experienced at teaching and the samples related to the quantitative survey included 326 faculty members selected by multistage cluster sampling. A 72-item questionnaire was used to measure the quantitative variables. The reliability of the questionnaire was 0.93. Its content and face validity was determined with the help of faculty members, consultants, and other experts. For the analysis of quantitative data obtained from structural model and regression, SPSS and LISREL were used. The results showed that the status of knowledge sharing is moderate in the universities. Individual factors influencing knowledge sharing included the sharing of educational materials, perception, confidence and knowledge self-efficiency, and organizational factors influencing knowledge sharing included structural social capital, cognitive social capital, social capital relations, organizational communication, organizational structure, organizational culture, IT infrastructure and systems of rewards. Finally, it was found that the contribution of individual factors on knowledge sharing was more than organizational factors; therefore, a model was presented in which contribution of individual and organizational factors were determined.

Keywords: knowledge sharing, social capital, organizational communication, knowledge self-efficiency, perception, trust, organizational culture

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Authors: Samer Muthana Sarsam, Abdul Samad Shibghatullah, Chit Su Mon, Abd Aziz Alias, Hosam Al-Samarraie

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Generative Artificial Intelligence chatbots (GAI chatbots) have emerged as promising tools in various domains, including higher education. However, their specific role within the educational context and the level of legal support for their implementation remain unclear. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the role of Bard, a newly developed GAI chatbot, in higher education. To achieve this objective, English tweets were collected from Twitter's free streaming Application Programming Interface (API). The Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) algorithm was applied to extract latent topics from the collected tweets. User sentiments, including disgust, surprise, sadness, anger, fear, joy, anticipation, and trust, as well as positive and negative sentiments, were extracted using the NRC Affect Intensity Lexicon and SentiStrength tools. This study explored the benefits, challenges, and future implications of integrating GAI chatbots in higher education. The findings shed light on the potential power of such tools, exemplified by Bard, in enhancing the learning process and providing support to students throughout their educational journey.

Keywords: generative artificial intelligence chatbots, bard, higher education, topic modelling, sentiment analysis

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Authors: Filippo Verre

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This paper explores Turkey’s role as an influential waterpower in the Middle East, emphasizing the Peace Water Pipeline Project (PWPP) as a paradigm of hydro solidarity rather than conventional water diplomacy. Hydro solidarity transcends the strategic and often competitive nature of water diplomacy, highlighting cooperative, inclusive, and mutually beneficial approaches to water resource management. The PWPP, which aimed to transport freshwater from Turkey’s Manavgat River to several water-scarce nations in the Middle East, exemplifies this ethos. By providing a reliable water supply to address the chronic shortages in the region, the project underscored Turkey’s commitment to fostering regional cooperation, stability, and collective well-being through shared water resources. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the Peace Water Pipeline Project, examining its technical specifications, environmental impact, and political implications. It discusses how the project’s foundation on principles of hydro solidarity could facilitate stronger regional ties, mitigate water-related conflicts, and promote sustainable development. By prioritizing collective benefits over unilateral gains, Turkey’s approach exemplified a transformative model of resource sharing that could inspire similar initiatives globally. This paper argues that the Peace Water Pipeline Project serves as a crucial case study in demonstrating how shared natural resources can be leveraged to build trust, enhance cooperation, and achieve common goals in a geopolitically volatile region. The findings emphasize the importance of adopting hydro solidarity as a guiding principle for future transboundary water projects, showcasing how collaborative water management can play a pivotal role in fostering peace, security, and sustainable development in the Middle East and beyond. This research is based on a mixed methodological approach combining qualitative and quantitative methods. The most relevant qualitative methods will involve Case Studies and Content Analysis. Concretely, the Friendship Dam Project (FDP) between Turkey and Syria will be mentioned to underline the importance of hydro solidarity approaches as opposed to water diplomacy. Analyzing this case aims to identify factors that contribute to successful hydro solidarity agreements, such as effective communication channels, trust-building measures, and adaptive management practices. Concerning Content Analysis, reviewing and analyzing policy documents, treaties, media reports, and public statements will help identify the official narratives and discourses surrounding the PWPP. This method fully comprehends how different stakeholders frame the issues and what solutions they propose. The quantitative methodology used in this research, which complements the qualitative approaches, involves economic valuation, which quantifies the PWPP’s economic impacts on Turkey and the Middle Eastern region. This includes assessing the cost of construction and maintenance and the financial benefits derived from improved water access and reduced conflict. Hydrological modelling will also be used as a quantitative research method. Using hydrological models to simulate the water flow and distribution scenarios helps quantify the pipeline’s potential impacts on water resources. By assessing the sustainability of water extraction and predicting how changes in water availability might affect different regions, these models play a crucial role in this research, shedding light on the impact of transboundary infrastructures on water management.

Keywords: hydro-solidarity, Middle East, transboundary water management, peace water pipeline project, water scarcity

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Authors: Hajar Hajmohammadi, Paul Pfeffer, Anna De Simoni, Jim Cole, Chris Griffiths, Sally Hull, Benjamin Heydecker

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Background: There is strong interest in the relationship between short-term air pollution exposure and human health. Most studies in this field focus on serious health effects such as death or hospital admission, but air pollution exposure affects many people with less severe impacts, such as exacerbations of respiratory conditions. A lack of quantitative analysis and inconsistent findings suggest improved methodology is needed to understand these effectsmore fully. Method: We developed a time series regression model to quantify the relationship between daily NOₓ concentration and Asthma exacerbations requiring oral steroids from primary care settings. Explanatory variables include daily NOₓ concentration measurements extracted from 8 available background and roadside monitoring stations in east London and daily ambient temperature extracted for London City Airport, located in east London. Lags of NOx concentrations up to 21 days (3 weeks) were used in the model. The dependent variable was the daily number of oral steroid courses prescribed for GP registered patients with asthma in east London. A mixed distribution model was then fitted to the significant lags of the regression model. Result: Results of the time series modelling showed a significant relationship between NOₓconcentrations on each day and the number of oral steroid courses prescribed in the following three weeks. In addition, the model using only roadside stations performs better than the model with a mixture of roadside and background stations.

Keywords: air pollution, time series modeling, public health, road transport

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Authors: Hung-Chu Chen, Han Qi, Bauke de Vries

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Energy consumption in the urban environment has attracted numerous researches in recent decades. However, it is comparatively rare to find literary works which investigated 3D spatial analysis of urban energy demand modelling. In order to analyze the spatial correlation between urban morphology and energy demand comprehensively, this paper investigates their relation by using the spatial regression tool. In addition, the spatial regression tool which is applied in this paper is ordinary least squares regression (OLS) and geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and building volume are explainers of urban morphology, which act as independent variables of Energy-land use (E-L) model. NDBI and NDVI are used as the index to describe five types of land use: urban area (U), open space (O), artificial green area (G), natural green area (V), and water body (W). Accordingly, annual electricity, gas demand and energy demand are dependent variables of the E-L model. Based on the analytical result of E-L model relation, it revealed that energy demand and urban morphology are closely connected and the possible causes and practical use are discussed. Besides, the spatial analysis methods of OLS and GWR are compared.

Keywords: energy demand model, geographically weighted regression, normalized difference built-up index, normalized difference vegetation index, spatial statistics

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Authors: Xincheng Jiang, Yanyan An, Yaoyao Huang, Wei Ding, Manli Sun, Hong Li, Huaili Zheng

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The residual antibiotics in the environment will pose a threat to the environment and human health. Thus, efficient removal and rapid detection of norfloxacin (NOR) in wastewater is very important. The main sources of NOR pollution are the agricultural, pharmaceutical industry and hospital wastewater. The total consumption of NOR in China can reach 5440 tons per year. It is found that neither animals nor humans can totally absorb and metabolize NOR, resulting in the excretion of NOR into the environment. Therefore, residual NOR has been detected in water bodies. The hazards of NOR in wastewater lie in three aspects: (1) the removal capacity of the wastewater treatment plant for NOR is limited (it is reported that the average removal efficiency of NOR in the wastewater treatment plant is only 68%); (2) NOR entering the environment will lead to the emergence of drug-resistant strains; (3) NOR is toxic to many aquatic species. At present, the removal and detection technologies of NOR are applied separately, which leads to a cumbersome operation process. The development of simultaneous adsorption-flocculation removal and FTIR detection of pollutants has three advantages: (1) Adsorption-flocculation technology promotes the detection technology (the enrichment effect on the material surface improves the detection ability); (2) The integration of adsorption-flocculation technology and detection technology reduces the material cost and makes the operation easier; (3) FTIR detection technology endows the water treatment agent with the ability of molecular recognition and semi-quantitative detection for pollutants. Thus, it is of great significance to develop a smart water treatment material with high removal capacity and detection ability for pollutants. This study explored the feasibility of combining NOR removal method with the semi-quantitative detection method. A magnetic Cu-Ni-S/Ni foam was synthesized by in-situ loading Cu-Ni-S nanostructures on the surface of Ni foam. The novelty of this material is the combination of adsorption-flocculation technology and semi-quantitative detection technology. Batch experiments showed that Cu-Ni-S/Ni foam has a high removal rate of NOR (96.92%), wide pH adaptability (pH=4.0-10.0) and strong ion interference resistance (0.1-100 mmol/L). According to the Langmuir fitting model, the removal capacity can reach 417.4 mg/g at 25 °C, which is much higher than that of other water treatment agents reported in most studies. Characterization analysis indicated that the main removal mechanisms are surface complexation, cation bridging, electrostatic attraction, precipitation and flocculation. Transmission FTIR detection experiments showed that NOR on Cu-Ni-S/Ni foam has easily recognizable FTIR fingerprints; the intensity of characteristic peaks roughly reflects the concentration information to some extent. This semi-quantitative detection method has a wide linear range (5-100 mg/L) and a low limit of detection (4.6 mg/L). These results show that Cu-Ni-S/Ni foam has excellent removal performance and semi-quantitative detection ability of NOR molecules. This paper provides a new idea for designing and preparing multi-functional water treatment materials to achieve simultaneous removal and semi-quantitative detection of organic pollutants in water.

Keywords: adsorption-flocculation, antibiotics detection, Cu-Ni-S/Ni foam, norfloxacin

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Authors: Sara atibi, Azzeddine Atibi, Salim Ahmed, Khadija El Kababi

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The emergence of an entrepreneurial culture within academic institutions is increasingly seen as essential for preparing students for contemporary economic challenges. This study examines the effectiveness of educational programs and interventions aimed at promoting entrepreneurial spirit at Al Akhawayn University. The central issue explores the types of programs most efficient in instilling the necessary entrepreneurial skills and attitudes in students. The primary question about the ‘types of educational programs and interventions that are most effective in cultivating and reinforcing the entrepreneurial spirit among students at Al Akhawayn University' is broken down into sub-questions detailing the characteristics of current programs, factors influencing their success, the evolution of students' entrepreneurial skills, the role of teachers and mentors, best practices from other institutions, and the long-term impacts on graduates' entrepreneurial careers. To address this question, a mixed-methods approach, combining quantitative and qualitative methods, was adopted. Quantitative data collection includes questionnaires and surveys designed to evaluate students' attitudes, skills, and perceptions before and after participating in entrepreneurship programs. Simultaneously, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations provide in-depth qualitative data on the experiences of students, teachers, and administrators. Quantitative data analysis employs descriptive and inferential statistical techniques, while qualitative analysis uses a thematic approach to identify key perceptions and experiences. This triangulation of data ensures robust and comprehensive results.

Keywords: student entrepreneurship, pedagogical interventions, Al Akhawayn university, entrepreneurial culture, entrepreneurial skills

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Authors: Arun Goel

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The present paper attempts to investigate the prediction of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from a triangular sharp crested weir by using regression based modelling. The empirical equations, support vector machine (polynomial and radial basis function) models and the linear regression techniques were applied on the triangular sharp crested weirs relating the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency to the input parameters namely drop height, discharge, and vertex angle. It was observed that there exists a good agreement between the measured values and the values obtained using empirical equations, support vector machine (Polynomial and rbf) models, and the linear regression techniques. The test results demonstrated that the SVM based (Poly & rbf) model also provided acceptable prediction of the measured values with reasonable accuracy along with empirical equations and linear regression techniques in modelling the air entrainment rate and the aeration efficiency of a free over-fall jets issuing from triangular sharp crested weir. Further sensitivity analysis has also been performed to study the impact of input parameter on the output in terms of air entrainment rate and aeration efficiency.

Keywords: air entrainment rate, dissolved oxygen, weir, SVM, regression

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Authors: Alitajer Saeed, Negintaji Farshad

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This study has been examined the relationship between anatomical components of mosques and place attachment of people to anatomies of mosques with the approach of attending to Islamic wisdom. To this end, this article by reviewing the theoretical and empirical literature of mosques' anatomy and the role of anatomy on the architectural design of Iranian mosques by examining the quantitative and qualitative indicators and in order to understand and identify the anatomy of mosques, components such as: entrance, portico, minarets, domes, bedchamber and pool have been investigated. For this purpose, SPSS software has been used. Research is related to field and is of descriptive, analytical and inferential type and quantitative and qualitative indicators have been examined. Statistical analysis obtained from the questionnaire indicates that there is a significant relationship between the anatomical components of architecture and place attachment of the participants. By understanding and identifying the anatomy of mosques and appropriate planning to use the anatomy in Islamic architecture and considering it as an eminent indicators of designing, it can present great Iranian architecture.

Keywords: Islamic wisdom, Islamic architecture, mosque anatomy place attachment, Islamic art

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Authors: William J. Crowther, Conor Marsh

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Object-based flow simulation allows fast computation of arbitrarily complex aerodynamic models made up of simple objects with limited flow interactions. The proposed approach is universally applicable to objects made from arbitrarily scaled ellipsoid primitives at arbitrary aerodynamic attitude and angular rate. The use of a component-based aerodynamic modelling approach increases efficiency by allowing selective inclusion of different physics models at run-time and allows extensibility through the development of new models. Insight into the numerical stability of the model under first order fixed-time step integration schemes is provided by stability analysis of the drag component. The compute cost of model components and functions is evaluated and compared against numerical benchmarks. Model static outputs are verified against theoretical expectations and dynamic behaviour using falling plate data from the literature. The model is applied to a range of case studies to demonstrate the efficacy of its application in extensibility, ease of use, and low computational cost. Dynamically complex multi-body systems can be implemented in a transparent and efficient manner, and we successfully demonstrate large scenes with hundreds of objects interacting with diverse flow fields.

Keywords: aerodynamics, real-time simulation, low-order model, flight dynamics

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Authors: Zeid A. Alothman

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Silver nanoparticle (AgNP) has been synthesized using adrenaline. Adrenaline readily undergoes an autoxidation reaction in an alkaline medium with the dissolved oxygen to form adrenochrome, thus behaving as a mild reducing agent for the dissolved oxygen. This reducing behavior of adrenaline when employed to reduce Ag(+) ions yielded a large enhancement in the intensity of absorbance in the visible region. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and X-ray diffraction (XRD) studies have been performed to confirm the surface morphology of AgNPs. Further, the metallic nanoparticles with size greater than 2 nm caused a strong and broad absorption band in the UV-visible spectrum called surface plasmon band or Mie resonance. The formation of AgNPs caused the large enhancement in the absorbance values with λmax at 436 nm through the excitation of the surface plasmon band. The formation of AgNPs was adapted to for the quantitative assessment of adrenaline using spectrophotometry with lower detection limit and higher precision values.

Keywords: silver nanoparticle, adrenaline, XRD, TEM, analysis

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Authors: Aleksandra Szunke

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Monetary policy is an important pillar of the economy, directly affecting on the condition of banking sector. Depending on the strategy may both support functioning of banking institutions, as well as limit their excessively risky activities. The literature studies indicate a large number of publications, which include characteristics of initiatives, implemented by central banks during the global financial crisis and the potential effects of the use of non-standard monetary policy instruments. However, the empirical evidence about their effects and real consequences for the financial markets are still not final. Even before the escalation of instability, Bernanke, Reinhart, and Sack (2004) analyzed the effectiveness of various unconventional monetary tools in lowering long-term interest rates in the United States and Japan. The obtained results largely confirmed the effectiveness of the zero-interest-rate policy and Quantitative Easing (QE) in achieving the goal of reducing long-term interest rates. Japan, considered as the precursor of QE policy, also conducted research about the consequences of non-standard instruments, implemented to restore financial stability of the country. Although the literature about the effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan is extensive, it does not uniquely specify whether it brought permanent effects. The main aim of the study is to identify the implications of non-standard monetary policy, implemented by selected central banks (the Federal Reserve System, Bank of England and European Central Bank), paying particular attention to the consequences into three areas: the size of money supply, financial markets, and the real economy.

Keywords: consequences of modern monetary policy, quantitative easing policy, banking sector instability, global financial crisis

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Authors: Svetlana Cojocaru, Mircea Petic, Inga Titchiev

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Humanity faces more and more often with different social disasters, which in turn can generate new accidents and catastrophes. To mitigate their consequences, it is important to obtain early possible signals about the events which are or can occur and to prepare the corresponding scenarios that could be applied. Our research is focused on solving two problems in this domain: identifying signals related that an accident occurred or may occur and mitigation of some consequences of disasters. To solve the first problem, methods of selecting and processing texts from global network Internet are developed. Information in Romanian is of special interest for us. In order to obtain the mentioned tools, we should follow several steps, divided into preparatory stage and processing stage. Throughout the first stage, we manually collected over 724 news articles and classified them into 10 categories of social disasters. It constitutes more than 150 thousand words. Using this information, a controlled vocabulary of more than 300 keywords was elaborated, that will help in the process of classification and identification of the texts related to the field of social disasters. To solve the second problem, the formalism of Petri net has been used. We deal with the problem of inhabitants’ evacuation in useful time. The analysis methods such as reachability or coverability tree and invariants technique to determine dynamic properties of the modeled systems will be used. To perform a case study of properties of extended evacuation system by adding time, the analysis modules of PIPE such as Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) Analysis, Simulation, State Space Analysis, and Invariant Analysis have been used. These modules helped us to obtain the average number of persons situated in the rooms and the other quantitative properties and characteristics related to its dynamics.

Keywords: lexicon of disasters, modelling, Petri nets, text annotation, social disasters

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Authors: Karen C. Olufokunbi, Odetunji A. Odejobi

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The discourse of this paper is the examination of the generation, accumulation and growth of e-waste in a developing country. Images and other data about computer e-waste were collected using a digital camera, 290 copies of questionnaire and three structured interviews using Obafemi Awolowo University (OAU), Ile-Ife, Nigeria environment as a case study. The numerical data were analysed using R data analysis and process tool. Automata-based techniques and Petri net modeling tool were used to design and simulate a computational model for the recovery of saleable materials from e-waste. The R analysis showed that at a 95 percent confidence level, the computer equipment that will be disposed by 2020 will be 417 units. Compared to the 800 units in circulation in 2014, 50 percent of personal computer components will become e-waste. This indicates that personal computer components were in high demand due to their low costs and will be disposed more rapidly when replaced by new computer equipment Also, 57 percent of the respondents discarded their computer e-waste by throwing it into the garbage bin or by dumping it. The simulated model using Coloured Petri net modelling tool for the process showed that the e-waste dynamics is a forward sequential process in the form of a pipeline meaning that an e-waste recovery of saleable materials process occurs in identifiable discrete stages indicating that e-waste will continue to accumulate and grow in volume with time.

Keywords: Coloured Petri net, computational modelling, electronic waste, electronic waste process dynamics

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Authors: Ngoc Trung Ngo, Buddhima Indraratna, Cholachat Rujikiathmakjornr

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For several hundred years, the design of railway tracks has practically remained unchanged. Traditionally, rail tracks are placed on a ballast layer due to several reasons, including economy, rapid drainage, and high load bearing capacity. The primary function of ballast is to distributing dynamic track loads to sub-ballast and subgrade layers, while also providing lateral resistance and allowing for rapid drainage. Upon repeated trainloads, the ballast becomes fouled due to ballast degradation and the intrusion of fines which adversely affects the strength and deformation behaviour of ballast. This paper presents the use of three-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) in studying the shear behaviour of the fouled ballast subjected to direct shear loading. Irregularly shaped particles of ballast were modelled by grouping many spherical balls together in appropriate sizes to simulate representative ballast aggregates. Fouled ballast was modelled by injecting a specified number of miniature spherical particles into the void spaces. The DEM simulation highlights that the peak shear stress of the ballast assembly decreases and the dilation of fouled ballast increases with an increase level of fouling. Additionally, the distributions of contact force chain and particle displacement vectors were captured during shearing progress, explaining the formation of shear band and the evolutions of volumetric change of fouled ballast.

Keywords: railway ballast, coal fouling, discrete element modelling, discrete element method

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Authors: Olaf Visker, Arnout De Vries, Lambert Schomaker

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Predictive policing refers to the usage of analytical techniques to identify potential criminal activity. It has been widely implemented by various police departments. Being a relatively new area of research, there are, to the author’s knowledge, no absolute tried, and true methods and they still exhibit a variety of potential problems. One of those problems is closely related to the lack of understanding of how acting on these prediction influence crime itself. The goal of law enforcement is ultimately crime reduction. As such, a policy needs to be established that best facilitates this goal. This research aims to find such a policy by using adversarial agent-based modeling in combination with modern reinforcement learning techniques. It is presented here that a baseline model for both law enforcement and criminal agents and compare their performance to their respective reinforcement models. The experiments show that our smart law enforcement model is capable of reducing crime by making more deliberate choices regarding the locations of potential criminal activity. Furthermore, it is shown that the smart criminal model presents behavior consistent with popular crime theories and outperforms the baseline model in terms of crimes committed and time to capture. It does, however, still suffer from the difficulties of capturing long term rewards and learning how to handle multiple opposing goals.

Keywords: adversarial, agent based modelling, predictive policing, reinforcement learning

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Authors: Zhidong Zhang

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This study established a mixed method model in assessing statistics learning with Bayesian network models. There are three variants in exploratory sequential designs. There are three linked steps in one of the designs: qualitative data collection and analysis, quantitative measure, instrument, intervention, and quantitative data collection analysis. The study used a scoring model of analysis of variance (ANOVA) as a content domain. The research study is to examine students’ learning in both semantic and performance aspects at fine grain level. The ANOVA score model, y = α+ βx1 + γx1+ ε, as a cognitive task to collect data during the student learning process. When the learning processes were decomposed into multiple steps in both semantic and performance aspects, a hierarchical Bayesian network was established. This is a theory-driven process. The hierarchical structure was gained based on qualitative cognitive analysis. The data from students’ ANOVA score model learning was used to give evidence to the hierarchical Bayesian network model from the evidential variables. Finally, the assessment results of students’ ANOVA score model learning were reported. Briefly, this was a mixed method research design applied to statistics learning assessment. The mixed methods designs expanded more possibilities for researchers to establish advanced quantitative models initially with a theory-driven qualitative mode.

Keywords: exploratory sequential design, ANOVA score model, Bayesian network model, mixed methods research design, cognitive analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 155