Search results for: operational risk

Authors: Arej Alhemimah

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This study investigates the influence of tourists’ perceptions of destination image on their intention to use a tourism app. It examines the roles played by tourists’ perceptions of app/website usability, information quality, and risk in shaping tourism destination image and, subsequently, their app use intention. Using an online questionnaire, the study surveyed 194 international tourists in Saudi Arabia. Results were analysed using PLS-SEM. All the proposed hypotheses were supported and significant. Perceived risk had the strongest influence, followed by the influence of tourists’ perceptions of information quality, then app usability. Additionally, perceived risk was found to have a strong effect on the application use intention. The study makes a significant contribution to the tourism website/application literature; its implications provide practical insights and recommendations for destination marketers and managers to improve their online and social media presence in terms of enhancing e-platform usability, quality of provided information, and most importantly, to create a destination strategy to manage tourists’ risk perceptions.

Keywords: destination image, perceived risk, use intention, tourism app, information quality

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Authors: Mohammad Lutfur Rahman

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School students of Dhaka are in extreme risk of natural disasters. However, the study on assessment of the real scenario of high school students about perceptions of earthquake is very little. The purpose of this cross-sectional study is to assess the seismic risk perception and preparedness levels about earthquake among high school students in Shavar, Dhaka. A questionnaire was developed, and data collection was done about a group of high school students in seven classrooms. The author uses a method of surveying high school students to identify and describe the factors that influence their knowledge and perceptions about earthquake. This study examines gender and grade differences in perceived risk and communication behavior in response to the earthquake. Female students’ preparation, participation, and communication with family are more frequent than that of male students. Female students have been found to be more likely to learn about a disaster than male students. Higher grade students have more awareness but less preparedness about earthquake than that of the younger one. This research concludes that irrespective of grades, high school students are vulnerable to earthquake due to the lack of a seismic education program.

Keywords: awareness, earthquake, risk perception, seismic

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Authors: Ilzira A. Minigalieva

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Assessment of cumulative health risks associated with the widely observed combined exposures to two or more metals and their compounds on the organism in industrial or general environment, as well as respective regulatory and technical risk management decision-making have presumably the theoretical and experimental toxicology of mixtures as their reliable scientific basis. Analysis of relevant literature and our own experience proves, however, that there is no full match between these different practices. Moreover, some of the contradictions between them are of a fundamental nature. This unsatisfactory state of things may be explained not only by unavoidable simplifications characteristic of the methodologies of risk assessment and permissible exposure standards setting but also by the extreme intrinsic complexity of the combined toxicity theory, the most essential issues of which are considered and briefly discussed in this paper.

Keywords: toxic metals, nanoparticles, typology of combined toxicity, mathematical modeling, health risk assessment and management

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Authors: Sarah Holdren, Laura Crook, Anne Drapkin Lyerly

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Objective: The COVID-19 Pandemic has drawn new attention to long-existing bioethical questions around pregnancy, childbirth, and parenthood. Due to the increased risk of severe COVID-19, pregnant individuals may experience anxiety regarding medical decision-making. Especially in the case of hospital births, questions around the ethics of bringing healthy pregnant individuals into a high-risk environment for viral transmission illuminate gaps in the American maternal and child healthcare system. Limited research has sought to understand the experiences of those who gave birth outside hospitals during this time. This study aims to understand pregnant individuals’ conceptualization of risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: Individuals who gave birth after March 2020 were recruited through advertisements on social media. Participants completed a 1-hour semi-structured interview and a demographic questionnaire. Interviews were transcribed and coded by members of the research team using thematic narrative analysis. Results: A total of 18 participants were interviewed and completed the demographic questionnaire. The language of risk was utilized in birth narratives in three different ways, which highlighted the multileveled and nuanced ways in which risk is understood and mitigated by pregnant and birthing individuals. These included: 1. The risk of contracting COVID-19 before, during, and after birth, 2. The risk of birth complications requiring medical interventions dependent on selected birthing space (home, birthing center, hospital), and 3. The overall risk of creating life in the middle of a pandemic. The risk of contracting COVID-19 and risk of birth complications were often weighed in paradoxical ways throughout each individual’s pregnancy, while phrases such as “pandemic baby” and “apocalypse” appeared throughout narratives and highlighted the broader implications of pregnancy and childbirth during this momentous time. Conclusions: Healthcare professionals should consider the variety of ways that pregnant and birthing individuals understand the risk when counseling patients on healthcare decisions, especially during times of healthcare crisis such as COVID-19. Future work should look to understand how the language of risk fits into a broader understanding of the human experience of growing life in times of crisis.

Keywords: maternal and child health, thematic narrative analysis, COVID-19, risk mitigation

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Authors: Volker Koch, Sigrid Swobodnik, Bernd M. Zunk

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The success of companies on globalized markets is significantly influenced by the performance of purchasing departments and, of course, the individuals employed as professional purchasers. Nonetheless, this is generally accepted in practice, in literature as well as in empirical research, only insufficient attention was given to the assessment of this relationship between the personality of professional purchasers and their individual performance. This paper aims to describe the relationship against the background of the 'Big Five Inventory'. Based on the five dimensions of a personality (openness to experience, conscientiousness, extraversion, agreeableness, and neuroticism) a research model was designed. The research model divides the individual performance of professional purchasers into two major dimensions: operational and strategic. The operational dimension consists of the items 'cost', 'quality delivery' and 'flexibility'; the strategic dimension comprises the positions 'innovation', 'supplier satisfaction' as wells as 'purchasing and supply management integration in the organization'. To test the research model, a survey study was performed, and an online questionnaire was sent out to purchasing professionals in Austrian companies. The data collected from 78 responses was used to test the research model applying a group comparison. The comparison points out that there is (i) an influence of the purchasers’ personality on the individual performance of professional purchasers and (ii) a link between purchasers’ personality to a high or a low individual performance of professional purchasers. The findings of this study may help human resource managers during staff recruitment processes to identify the 'right performing personality' for an operational and/or a strategic position in purchasing departments.

Keywords: big five inventory, individual performance, personality, purchasing professionals

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Authors: Omar Amoudi, Latifa Al Brashdi

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Construction projects are always subject to risks and uncertainties due to its unique and dynamic nature, outdoor work environment, the wide range of skills employed, various parties involved in addition to situation of construction business environment at large. Altogether, these risks and uncertainties affect projects objectives and lead to cost overruns, delay, and poor quality. Construction projects in Oman often experience cost overruns and delay. Managing these risks and reducing their impacts on construction cost requires firstly identifying these risks, and then analyzing their severity on project cost to obtain deep understanding about these risks. This in turn will assist construction managers in managing and tacking these risks. This paper aims to investigate the main risk factors that affect construction projects cost in the Sultanate of Oman. In order to achieve the main aim, literature review was carried out to identify the main risk factors affecting construction cost. Thirty-three risk factors were identified from the literature. Then, a questionnaire survey was designed and distributed among construction professionals (i.e., client, contractor and consultant) to obtain their opinion toward the probability of occurrence for each risk factor and its possible impact on construction project cost. The collected data was analyzed based on qualitative aspects and in several ways. The severity of each risk factor was obtained by multiplying the probability occurrence of a risk factor with its impact. The findings of this study reveal that the most significant risk factors that have high severity impact on construction project cost are: Change of Oil Price, Delay of Materials and Equipment Delivery, Changes in Laws and Regulations, Improper Budgeting, and Contingencies, Lack of Skilled Workforce and Personnel, Delays Caused by Contractor, Delays of Owner Payments, Delays Caused by Client, and Funding Risk. The results can be used as a basis for construction managers to make informed decisions and produce risk response procedures and strategies to tackle these risks and reduce their negative impacts on construction project cost.

Keywords: construction cost, construction projects, Oman, risk factors, risk management

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Authors: Hamzeh Soltanali, Abbas Rohani, A. H. S. Garmabaki, Mohammad Hossein Abbaspour-Fard, Adithya Thaduri

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Toward continuous innovation and high complexity of technological systems, the automotive manufacturing industry is also under pressure to implement adequate management strategies regarding availability and productivity. In this context, evaluation of system’s performance by considering reliability, availability and maintainability (RAM) methodologies can constitute for resilient operation, identifying the bottlenecks of manufacturing process and optimization of maintenance actions. In this paper, RAM parameters are evaluated for improving the operational performance of the fluid filling process. To evaluate the RAM factors through the behavior of states defined for such process, a systematic decision framework was developed. The results of RAM analysis revealed that that the improving reliability and maintainability of main bottlenecks for each filling workstation need to be considered as a priority. The results could be useful to improve operational performance and sustainability of production process.

Keywords: automotive, performance, reliability, RAM, fluid filling process

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Authors: Cameron Truong, Mikhail Bhatia, Yangyang Chen, Viet Nga Cao

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Using a sample of U.S. firms between 1996 and 2011, this paper documents a positive association between options trading volume and future stock price crash risk. This relation is evidently more pronounced among firms with higher information asymmetry, business uncertainty, and short-sale constraints. In a dichotomous cross-sectional setting, we also document that firms with options trading have higher future crash risk than firms without options trading. We further show in a difference-in-difference analysis that firms experience an increase in crash risk immediately after the listing of options. The results suggest that options traders are able of identifying bad news hoarding by management and choose to trade in a liquid options market in anticipation of future crashes.

Keywords: bad news hoarding, cross-sectional setting, options trading, stock price crash

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Authors: M. Sulieman, H. Arabiyat, H. Ali, K. Potiszil, I. Abbas, R. English, P. King, I. Brown, P. Drew

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Introduction: The incidence of breast ductal Carcinoma in Situ (DCIS) has been increasing; it currently represents up 20-25% of all breast carcinomas. Some aspects of DCIS management are still controversial, mainly due to the heterogeneity of its clinical presentation and of its biological and pathological characteristics. In DCIS, histological diagnosis obtained preoperatively, carries the risk of sampling error if the presence of invasive cancer is subsequently diagnosed. The mammographic extent over than 4–5 cm and the presence of architectural distortion, focal asymmetric density or mass on mammography are proven important risk factors of preoperative histological under staging. Intracystic papillary cancer (IPC) is a rare form of breast carcinoma. Despite being previously compared to DCIS it has been shown to present histologically with invasion of the basement membrane and even metastasis. SLNB – Carries the risk of associated comorbidity that should be considered when planning surgery for DCIS and IPC. Objectives: The aim of this Audit was to better define a ‘high risk’ group of patients with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing breast conserving surgery, who would benefit from sentinel node biopsy. Method: Retrospective data collection of all patients with ductal carcinoma in situ over 5 years. 636 patients identified, and after exclusion criteria applied: 394 patients were included. High risk defined as: Extensive micro-calcification >40mm OR any mass forming DCIS. IPC: Winpath search from for the term ‘papillary carcinoma’ in any breast specimen for 5 years duration;.29 patients were included in this group. Results: DCIS: 188 deemed high risk due to >40mm calcification or a mass forming (radiological or palpable) 61% of those had a mastectomy and 32% BCS. Overall, in that high-risk group - the number with invasive disease was 38%. Of those high-risk DCIS pts 85% had a SLN - 80% at the time of surgery and 5% at a second operation. For the BCS patients - 42% had SLN at time of surgery and 13% (8 patients) at a second operation. 15 (7.9%) pts in the high-risk group had a positive SLNB, 11 having a mastectomy and 4 having BCS. IPC: The provisional diagnosis of encysted papillary carcinoma is upgraded to an invasive carcinoma on final histology in around a third of cases. This has may have implications when deciding whether to offer sentinel node removal at the time of therapeutic surgery. Conclusions: We have defined a ‘high risk’ group of pts with pre-op diagnosis of non-invasive cancer undergoing BCS, who would benefit from SLNB at the time of the surgery. In patients with high-risk features; the risk of invasive disease is up to 40% but the risk of nodal involvement is approximately 8%. The risk of morbidity from SLN is up to about 5% especially the risk of lymphedema.

Keywords: breast ductal carcinoma in Situ (DCIS), intracystic papillary carcinoma (IPC), sentinel node biopsy (SLNB), high-risk, non-invasive, cancer disease

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Authors: Ogbuagu Josephat Okechukwu, Okeke Abuchi Princewill, Arinze Rosemary Uche, Tabugbo Ifeyinwa Blessing, Ogbuagu Adaora Stellamaris

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Phthalates or Phthalate esters (PAEs), categorized as an endocrine disruptor and persistent organic pollutants, are known for their environmental contamination and toxicological effects. In this study, the concentration of selected phthalates was determined across the sampling site to investigate their occurrence and the ecological and health risk assessment they pose to the environment. Water and sediment samples were collected following standard procedures. Solid phase and ultrasonic methods were used to extract seven different PAEs, which were analyzed by Gas Chromatography with Mass Detector (GCMS). The analytical average recovery was found to be within the range of 83.4% ± 2.3%. The results showed that PAEs were detected in six out of seven samples with a high percentage of detection rate in water. Di-n-butyl phthalate (DPB) and disobutyl phthalates (DiBP) showed a greater detection rate compared to other PAE monomers. The concentration of PEs was found to be higher in sediment samples compared to water samples due to the fact that sediments serve as a sink for most persistent organic pollutants. The concentrations of PAEs in water samples and sediments ranged from 0.00 to 0.23 mg/kg and 0.00 to 0.028 mg/l, respectively. Ecological risk assessment using the risk quotient method (RQ) reveals that the estimated environmental risk caused by phthalates lies within the moderate level as RQ ranges from 0.1 to 1.0, whereas the health risk assessment caused by phthalates on estimating the average daily dose reveals that the ingestion of phthalates was found to be approaching permissible limit which can cause serious carcinogenic occurrence in the human system with time due to excess accumulation.

Keywords: phthalates, endocrine disruptor, risk assessment, ecological risk, health risk

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Authors: Camila Amin-Puello, Lina Vasco-Diaz, Juan Ramirez-Arias, Claudia Munoz, Carlos Gonzalez-Calderon

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Operational flexibility is a fundamental aspect in the field of airlines because although demand is constantly changing, it is the duty of companies to provide a service to users that satisfies their needs in an efficient manner without sacrificing factors such as comfort, safety and other perception variables. The objective of this research is to understand the factors that describe and explain operational flexibility by implementing advanced analytical methods such as exploratory factor analysis and structural equation modeling, examining multiple levels of operational flexibility and understanding how these variable influences users' decision-making when choosing an airline and in turn how it affects the airlines themselves. The use of a hybrid model and latent variables improves the efficiency and accuracy of airline performance prediction in the unpredictable Colombian market. This pioneering study delves into traveler motivations and their impact on domestic flight demand, offering valuable insights to optimize resources and improve the overall traveler experience. Applying the methods, it was identified that low-cost airlines are not useful for flexibility, while users, especially women, found airlines with greater flexibility in terms of ticket costs and flight schedules to be more useful. All of this allows airlines to anticipate and adapt to their customers' needs efficiently: to plan flight capacity appropriately, adjust pricing strategies and improve the overall passenger experience.

Keywords: hybrid choice model, airline, business travelers, domestic flights

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Authors: Hyeon-Kyo Lim, Hyunjung Kim, Kune-Woo Lee

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Decommissioning process of nuclear facilities can be said to consist of a sequence of problem solving activities, partly because there may exist working environments contaminated by radiological exposure, and partly because there may also exist industrial hazards such as fire, explosions, toxic materials, and electrical and physical hazards. As for an individual hazard factor, risk assessment techniques are getting known to industrial workers with advance of safety technology, but the way how to integrate those results is not. Furthermore, there are few workers who experienced decommissioning operations a lot in the past. Therefore, not a few countries in the world have been trying to develop appropriate counter techniques in order to guarantee safety and efficiency of the process. In spite of that, there still exists neither domestic nor international standard since nuclear facilities are too diverse and unique. In the consequence, it is quite inevitable to imagine and assess the whole risk in the situation anticipated one by one. This paper aimed to find out an appropriate technique to integrate individual risk assessment results from the viewpoint of experts. Thus, on one hand the whole risk assessment activity for decommissioning operations was modeled as a sequence of individual risk assessment steps, and on the other, a hierarchical risk structure was developed. Then, risk assessment procedure that can elicit individual hazard factors one by one were introduced with reference to the standard operation procedure (SOP) and hierarchical task analysis (HTA). With an assumption of quantification and normalization of individual risks, a technique to estimate relative weight factors was tried by using the conventional Analytic Hierarchical Process (AHP) and its result was reviewed with reference to judgment of experts. Besides, taking the ambiguity of human judgment into consideration, debates based upon fuzzy inference was added with a mathematical case study.

Keywords: decommissioning, risk assessment, analytic hierarchical process (AHP), fuzzy inference

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Authors: Lily Ingsrisawang, Tasanee Nacharoen

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Introduction: The problems of unbalanced data sets generally appear in real world applications. Due to unequal class distribution, many research papers found that the performance of existing classifier tends to be biased towards the majority class. The k -nearest neighbors’ nonparametric discriminant analysis is one method that was proposed for classifying unbalanced classes with good performance. Hence, the methods of discriminant analysis are of interest to us in investigating misclassification error rates for class-imbalanced data of three diabetes risk groups. Objective: The purpose of this study was to compare the classification performance between parametric discriminant analysis and nonparametric discriminant analysis in a three-class classification application of class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups. Methods: Data from a healthy project for 599 staffs in a government hospital in Bangkok were obtained for the classification problem. The staffs were diagnosed into one of three diabetes risk groups: non-risk (90%), risk (5%), and diabetic (5%). The original data along with the variables; diabetes risk group, age, gender, cholesterol, and BMI was analyzed and bootstrapped up to 50 and 100 samples, 599 observations per sample, for additional estimation of misclassification error rate. Each data set was explored for the departure of multivariate normality and the equality of covariance matrices of the three risk groups. Both the original data and the bootstrap samples show non-normality and unequal covariance matrices. The parametric linear discriminant function, quadratic discriminant function, and the nonparametric k-nearest neighbors’ discriminant function were performed over 50 and 100 bootstrap samples and applied to the original data. In finding the optimal classification rule, the choices of prior probabilities were set up for both equal proportions (0.33: 0.33: 0.33) and unequal proportions with three choices of (0.90:0.05:0.05), (0.80: 0.10: 0.10) or (0.70, 0.15, 0.15). Results: The results from 50 and 100 bootstrap samples indicated that the k-nearest neighbors approach when k = 3 or k = 4 and the prior probabilities of {non-risk:risk:diabetic} as {0.90:0.05:0.05} or {0.80:0.10:0.10} gave the smallest error rate of misclassification. Conclusion: The k-nearest neighbors approach would be suggested for classifying a three-class-imbalanced data of diabetes risk groups.

Keywords: error rate, bootstrap, diabetes risk groups, k-nearest neighbors

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Authors: Armenia Nazar, Sally M. J. Anggelya, Rose Dinda

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Hypertension prevalence in Indonesian has increased from time to time since 2013, especially in women. This cross-sectional analysis study was made to observe the incidence of hypertension on the reproductive women (20-49 years old) with several risk factors who use contraceptive pills. Data was collected from June - October 2016 in the Andalas Public Health Center, East Padang District, Indonesia. An amount of 167 respondents who were taken using consecutive sampling technique were participate in this study. Data of social demography, contraceptive used, duration of use, hypertension risk factors (age, family history, central obesity, body mass index, physical activity, and stress) were collected and analyzed statistically using Chi-Square analysis. Significant was taken at p < 0.05. Results showed that the woman with contraceptive pill was tent to get hypertension (OR = 3,90 and p < 0,001). In addition, woman with a family history OR of 6,77 (p = 0,09), mild physical activity OR of 3,67 (p = 0,33), moderate physical activity OR of 3,33 (p = 0,16), and stressed OR of 5.11 (p = 0.18). These indicated that the contraceptive pill user is 3.9 times more risk to develop hypertension than non-users, especially one with a family history of hypertension. Other risk factors were not associated with hypertension risk in these sex productive women.

Keywords: hypertension, oral contraceptive, sex productive woman, risk factors

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Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

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Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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Authors: A. D. Abdellatif, A. N. Ahmed, M. E. Abdelaziz

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The main purpose of this paper is to design a double acceptance sampling plan under the time truncated life test when the product lifetime follows an exponentiated transmuted Weibull distribution. Here, the motive is to meet both the consumer’s risk and producer’s risk simultaneously at the specified quality levels, while the termination time is specified. A comparison between the results of the double and single acceptance sampling plans is conducted. We demonstrate the applicability of our results to real data sets.

Keywords: double sampling plan, single sampling plan, producer’s risk, consumer’s risk, exponentiated transmuted weibull distribution, time truncated experiment, single, double, Marshal-Olkin

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Authors: Mamiza Haq

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This paper examines the relevance of bank capital and charter value on bank insolvency and liquidity risks. Using an unbalanced panel of 2,111 unique local banks across 22 countries over 1998-2012, we find that both bank capital and charter value lower insolvency and liquidity risks, but this effect varies among conventional, Islamic, and Islamic-window banks. The risk constraining effect of bank capital becomes more prominent in the post 2007-2008 global financial crisis. Moreover, the relationships vary when conditioned upon other key bank-specific characteristics. For instance, the effect of capital on risk-reduction diminishes in the presence of high charter value for conventional-G7 and Islamic-window banks, during-GFC and pre-GFC period; respectively. Our findings have important policy implications related to bank safety. The results are robust to a range of robustness tests.

Keywords: bank capital, charter value, risk, financial crisis

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Authors: Mohammad Ghavami, Reza S. Dilmaghani

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This paper presents an adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction, RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

Keywords: adaptive methods, LSE, MSE, prediction of financial Markets

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Authors: Maria Debora Braga, Luigi Riso, Maria Grazia Zoia

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Risk-based approaches to asset allocation are portfolio construction methods that do not rely on the input of expected returns for the asset classes in the investment universe and only use risk information. They include the Minimum Variance Strategy (MV strategy), the traditional (volatility-based) Risk Parity Strategy (SRP strategy), the Most Diversified Portfolio Strategy (MDP strategy) and, for many, the Equally Weighted Strategy (EW strategy). All the mentioned approaches were based on portfolio volatility as a reference risk measure but in 2023, the Kurtosis-based Risk Parity strategy (KRP strategy) and the Minimum Kurtosis strategy (MK strategy) were introduced. Understandably, they used the fourth root of the portfolio-fourth moment as a proxy for portfolio kurtosis to work with a homogeneous function of degree one. This paper contributes mainly theoretically and methodologically to the framework of risk-based asset allocation approaches with two steps forward. First, a new and more flexible objective function considering a linear combination (with positive coefficients that sum to one) of portfolio volatility and portfolio kurtosis is used to alternatively serve a risk minimization goal or a homogeneous risk distribution goal. Hence, the new basic idea consists in extending the achievement of typical risk-based approaches’ goals to a combined risk measure. To give the rationale behind operating with such a risk measure, it is worth remembering that volatility and kurtosis are expressions of uncertainty, to be read as dispersion of returns around the mean and that both preserve adherence to a symmetric framework and consideration for the entire returns distribution as well, but also that they differ from each other in that the former captures the “normal” / “ordinary” dispersion of returns, while the latter is able to catch the huge dispersion. Therefore, the combined risk metric that uses two individual metrics focused on the same phenomena but differently sensitive to its intensity allows the asset manager to express, in the context of an objective function by varying the “relevance coefficient” associated with the individual metrics, alternatively, a wide set of plausible investment goals for the portfolio construction process while serving investors differently concerned with tail risk and traditional risk. Since this is the first study that also implements risk-based approaches using a combined risk measure, it becomes of fundamental importance to investigate the portfolio effects triggered by this innovation. The paper also offers a second contribution. Until the recent advent of the MK strategy and the KRP strategy, efforts to highlight interesting properties of risk-based approaches were inevitably directed towards the traditional MV strategy and SRP strategy. Previous literature established an increasing order in terms of portfolio volatility, starting from the MV strategy, through the SRP strategy, arriving at the EQ strategy and provided the mathematical proof for the “equalization effect” concerning marginal risks when the MV strategy is considered, and concerning risk contributions when the SRP strategy is considered. Regarding the validity of similar conclusions when referring to the MK strategy and KRP strategy, the development of a theoretical demonstration is still pending. This paper fills this gap.

Keywords: risk parity, portfolio kurtosis, risk diversification, asset allocation

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Authors: Orla Muldoon, Tamaryn Nicolson, Mike Quayle, Aisling O'Donnell

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Psychology most often considers the role of experience and behaviour in shaping health at the individual level. On the other hand epidemiology has long considered risk at the wider group or structural level. Here we use the social identity approach to integrate group-level risk with individual level behaviour. Using a social identity approach we demonstrate that group or macro-level factors impact implicitly and profoundly in everyday ways at the level of individuals, via social identities. We illustrate how identities related to race, gender and inequality intersect to affect HIV/AIDS risk and AIDS treatment behaviours; how social identity processes drive stigmatising consequences of HIV and AIDS, and promote positive and effective interventions. We conclude by arguing that the social identity approach offers the field an explanatory framework that conceptualizes how social and political forces intersect with individual identity and agency to affect human health.

Keywords: social identity approach, HIV/AIDS, Africa, HIV risk, race, gender

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Authors: Rami S. Alasmari, Abdullah Al Zahrani, Hattan A. Hassani, Hattan A. Hassani, Nawwaf A. Almalky, Abdullah F. Bokhari, Alwalied A. Hafez

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Diabetes mellitus type 2 (DMT2) is a major chronic condition that is considered common among elderly people, with multiple potential complications that could contribute to falls. However, this concept is not well understood, thus, the aim of this study is to determine whether diabetes is an independent risk factor for falls in elderly. In this observational cross-sectional study, 309 diabetic patients aged 60 or more who visited the primary healthcare centers of the Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs in Jeddah were chosen via convenience sampling method. To collect the data, Semi-structured Fall Risk Assessment questionnaire and Fall Efficacy Score scale were used. The mean age of the participants was estimated to be 68.5 (SD:7.4) years. Among the participants, 48.2% experienced falling before, and 63.1% of them suffered falls in the past 12-months. The results showed that gait problems were independently associated with a higher likelihood of fall among the elderly patients (OR = 1.98, 95%CI, 1.08 to 3.62, p = 0.026. This paper suggests that diabetes mellitus is an independent fall risk factor among elderly. Therefore, identifying such patients as being at higher risk and prompt referral to a specialist falls clinic is recommended.

Keywords: diabetes, fall, elderly, risk factors

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Authors: Haluk Eren, Ümit Çelik

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Recent developments in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to attract intense interest. UAVs started to use for many different applications from military to civilian use. Some online retailer and logistics companies are testing the UAV delivery. UAVs have great potentials to reduce cost and time of deliveries and responding to emergencies in a short time. Despite these great positive sides, just a few works have been done for routing of UAVs for package deliveries. As known, transportation of goods from one place to another may have many hazards on delivery route due to falling hazards that can be exemplified as ground objects or air obstacles. This situation refers to wide-range insurance concept. For this reason, deliveries that are made with drones get into the scope of shipping insurance. On the other hand, air traffic was taken into account in the absence of unmanned aerial vehicle. But now, it has been a reality for aerial fields. In this study, the main goal is to conduct risk analysis of package delivery services using drone, based on delivery routes.

Keywords: aerial package delivery, insurance estimation, territory risk map, unmanned aerial vehicle, route risk estimation, drone risk assessment, drone package delivery

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Authors: Gokhan Kilic, Pelin Celik

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Structural health monitoring (SHM) is widely used in evaluating the state and health of membrane structures. In the past, in order to collect data and send it to a data collection unit on membrane structures, wire sensors had to be put as part of the SHM process. However, this study recommends using wireless sensors instead of traditional wire ones to construct an economical, useful, and easy-to-install membrane structure health monitoring system. Every wireless sensor uses a software translation program that is connected to the monitoring server. Operational neural networks (ONNs) have recently been developed to solve the shortcomings of convolutional neural networks (CNNs), such as the network's resemblance to the linear neuron model. The results of using ONNs for monitoring to evaluate the structural health of a membrane are presented in this work.

Keywords: wireless sensor network, non-destructive testing, operational neural networks, membrane structures, dynamic monitoring

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Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

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Authors: Uche A. Ibekwe

Abstract:

Pension funds are pooled assets which are established to provide income for retirees. The funds are usually regulated to check excessive risk taking by fund managers. In Nigeria, the current defined contribution (DC) pension scheme appears to contain some overly stringent restrictions which might be hampering its successful implementation. Notable among these restrictions is the 25 percent maximum limit on investment in ordinary shares of quoted companies. This paper examines the extent to which these restrictions affect pension replacement rates at retirement. The study made use of both simulated and historical asset return distributions using mean-variance, regression analysis and ruin-risk analyses, the study found that the current equity investment restriction policy in Nigeria reduces replacement rates at retirement.

Keywords: equity investment, replacement rates, restrictions, ruin-risk

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Authors: Malani Herath, Sohan Wijesekera, Jagath Munasingha

Abstract:

The impact of recent floods become significant, and the extraordinary flood events cause considerable damage to lives, properties, environment and negatively affect the whole development of Colombo urban region. Even though the Colombo urban region experiences recurrent flood impacts, several spatial planning interventions have been taken from time to time since early 20th century. All past plans have adopted a traditional approach to flood management, using infrastructural measures to reduce the chance of flooding together with rigid planning regulations. The existing flood risk management practices do not operate to be acceptable by the local community particular the urban poor. Researchers have constantly reported the differences in estimations of flood risk, priorities, concerns of experts and the local community. Risk-based decision making in flood management is not only a matter of technical facts; it has a significant bearing on how flood risk is viewed by local community and individuals. Moreover, sustainable flood management is an integrated approach, which highlights joint actions of experts and community. This indicates the necessity of further societal discussion on the acceptable level of flood risk indicators to prioritize and identify the appropriate flood management measures in Colombo. The understanding and evaluation of flood risk by local people are important to integrate in the decision-making process. This research questioned about the gap between the acceptable level of flood risk to spatial planners and to the local communities in Colombo. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to prepare a framework to analyze the public perception in Colombo. This research work identifies the factors that affect the variation of flood risk and acceptable levels to both local community and planning authorities.

Keywords: Colombo basin, public perception, urban flood risk, multi-criteria analysis

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Authors: Alwyn John Lim

Abstract:

Philippines is one of the most vulnerable areas to natural disasters in the world. Almost every year different types of natural disasters occur in Philippines and destroy many lives and resources of people. Although it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of disasters influenced by natural causes, proper plan and management such as disaster risk reduction may minimize the damage cause by natural disasters. Based on literature review this paper will analyze literatures on public/community awareness and education in disaster risk reduction that would help promote a country wide public disaster awareness and education program in the Philippines. This will include best practices and importance of community disaster awareness and education. The paper will also tackle ICT tools that will help boost the process and effectiveness of community/public disaster awareness and education.

Keywords: community awareness, disaster education, disaster risk reduction, Philippines

Procedia PDF Downloads 503

Authors: Kung-Jen Tu

Abstract:

Many public housing properties developed by local governments in Taiwan in the 1980s have deteriorated severely as these rental apartment buildings aged. The lack of building maintainability considerations during project design phase as well as insufficient maintenance funds have made it difficult and costly for local governments to maintain and keep public housing properties in good shape. In order to assist the local governments in achieving and delivering sustainable public housing, this paper intends to present a developed design evaluation method to be used to evaluate the presented design schemes from property management and financial feasibility perspectives during project design phase of public housing projects. The design evaluation results, i.e. the property management and financial implications of presented design schemes that could occur later during the building operation and maintenance phase, will be reported to the client (the government) and design schemes revised consequently. It is proposed that the design evaluation be performed from two main perspectives: (1) Operation and property management perspective: Three criteria such as spatial appropriateness, people and vehicle circulation and control, property management working spaces are used to evaluate the ‘operation and PM effectiveness’ of a design scheme. (2) Financial feasibility perspective: Four types of financial analyses are performed to assess the long term financial feasibility of a presented design scheme, such as operational and rental income analysis, management fund analysis, regular operational and property management service expense analysis, capital expense analysis. The ongoing Chung-Li Public Housing Project developed by the Taoyuan City Government will be used as a case to demonstrate how the presented design evaluation method is implemented. The results of property management assessment as well as the annual operational and capital expenses of a proposed design scheme are presented.

Keywords: design evaluation method, management fund, operational and capital expenses, rental apartment buildings

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Authors: F. Esfandyari Darabad, Z. Samadi

Abstract:

Natural environments have always been affected by one of the most important natural hazards, which is called, the mass movements that cause instability. Identifying the unstable regions and separating them so as to detect and determine the risk of environmental factors is one of the important issues in mountainous areas development. In this study, the northwest of Sabalan hillsides overlooking the Meshkin city and the surrounding area of that have been delimitated, in order to analyze the range processes such as landslides and debris flows based on structural and geomorphological conditions, by means of using GIS. This area due to the high slope of the hillsides and height of the region and the poor localization of roads and so because of them destabilizing the ranges own an inappropriate situation. This study is done with the purpose of identifying the effective factors in the range motion and determining the areas with high potential for zoning these movements by using GIS. The results showed that the most common range movements in the area, are debris flows, rocks falling and landslides. The effective factors in each one of the mass movements, considering a small amount of weight for each factor, the weight map of each factor and finally, the map of risk zoning for the range movements were provided. Based on the zoning map resulted in the study area, the risking level of damaging has specified into the four zones of very high risk, high risk, medium risk, low risk, in which areas with very high and high risk are settled near the road and along the Khyav river and in the  mountainous district.

Keywords: debris flow, environmental hazards, GIS, landslide

Procedia PDF Downloads 525

Authors: Varis Ransibrahmanakul, Doug Pirhalla, Scott Sheridan, Cameron Lee

Abstract:

U.S. coastal areas and ecosystems are facing multiple sea level rise threats and effects: heavy rain events, cyclones, and changing wind and weather patterns all influence coastal flooding, sedimentation, and erosion along critical barrier islands and can strongly impact habitat resiliency and water quality in protected habitats. These impacts are increasing over time and have accelerated the need for new tracking techniques, models and tools of flood risk to support enhanced preparedness for coastal management and mitigation. To address this issue, NOAA National Ocean Service (NOS) evaluated new metrics from satellite altimetry AVISO/Copernicus and MODIS IR flood extents to isolate nodes atmospheric variability indicative of elevated sea level and nuisance flood events. Using de-trended time series of cross-shelf sea surface heights (SSH), we identified specific Self Organizing Maps (SOM) nodes and transitions having a strongest regional association with oceanic spatial patterns (e.g., heightened downwelling favorable wind-stress and enhanced southward coastal transport) indicative of elevated coastal sea levels. Results show the impacts of the inverted barometer effect as well as the effects of surface wind forcing; Ekman-induced transport along broad expanses of the U.S. eastern coastline. Higher sea levels and corresponding localized flooding are associated with either pattern indicative of enhanced on-shore flow, deepening cyclones, or local- scale winds, generally coupled with an increased local to regional precipitation. These findings will support an integration of satellite products and will inform seasonal outlook model development supported through NOAAs Climate Program Office and NOS office of Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS). Overall results will prioritize ecological areas and coastal lab facilities at risk based on numbers of nuisance flood projected and inform coastal management of flood risk around low lying areas subjected to bank erosion.

Keywords: AVISO satellite altimetry SSHA, MODIS IR flood map, nuisance flood, remote sensing of flood

Procedia PDF Downloads 143