Search results for: endogenous variable

Authors: Ali Hojati Najafabadi, Mohamad Hosein Rahmati, Seyed Ali Madanizadeh

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Governments execute energy subsidy reforms by either increasing energy prices or reducing energy price dispersion. These policies make less use of energy per plant (intensive margin), vary the total number of firms (extensive margin), promote technological progress (technology channel), and make additional resources to redistribute (resource channel). We estimate a structural dynamic firm model with endogenous technology adaptation using data from the manufacturing firms in Iran and a country ranked the second-largest energy subsidy plan by the IMF. The findings show significant dynamics and distributional effects due to an energy reform plan. The price elasticity of energy consumption in the industrial sector is about -2.34, while it is -3.98 for large firms. The dispersion elasticity, defined as the amounts of changes in energy consumption by a one-percent reduction in the standard error of energy price distribution, is about 1.43, suggesting significant room for a distributional policy. We show that the intensive margin is the main driver of energy price elasticity, whereas the other channels mostly offset it. In contrast, the labor response is mainly through the extensive margin. Total factor productivity slightly improves in light of the reduction in energy consumption if, at the same time, the redistribution policy boosts the aggregate demands.

Keywords: energy reform, firm dynamics, structural estimation, subsidy policy

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Authors: Ariana Kilic, Serena Arapyan

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Water pollution is a serious concern in all seas around the world and one major cause of it is dye textile wastes mixing with seawater. This common incident alters aquatic life, putting organisms’ lives in danger and deteriorating the water's nature. There is a significant need for a natural approach to reduce the amount of dye textile waste in seawater and ensure marine organisms' safety. Consequently, using marine algae is a viable solution since it can eliminate the excess waste by absorbing the dye. Also, marine algae are non-vascular that absorb water and nutrients, meaning that having them as absorbers is a natural process and no inorganic matters will be added to the seawater that could result in further pollution. To test the efficiency of this approach, the optical absorbance of the seawater samples was measured before and after the addition of marine algae by utilizing colorimetry. A colorimeter is used to find the concentration of a chemical compound in a solution by measuring the absorbance of the compound at a specific wavelength. Samples of seawater that have equal amounts of water were used and textile dye was added as the constant variables. The initial and final absorbances, the dependent variable, of the water were measured before and after the addition of marine algae, the independent variable, and observed. The lower the absorbance showed us that there is lower dye concentration and therefore, the marine algae had done its job by using and absorbing the dye. The same experiment was repeated with same amount of water but with different concentrations of dye in order to determine the maximum concentration of dye the marine algae can completely absorb. The diminished concentration of dye demonstrated that pollution caused by factories’ dye wastes could be prevented with the natural method of marine algae. The involvement of marine algae is an optimal strategy for having an organic solution to absorbing the dye wastes in seas and obstructing water pollution.

Keywords: water pollution, dye textile waste, marine algae, absorbance, colorimetry

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Authors: Restituto I. Rodelas

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The higher education has adopted the outcomes-based education from K-12. In this approach, the teacher uses any teaching and learning strategies that enable the students to achieve the learning outcomes. The students may be required to exert more effort and figure things out on their own. Hence, outcomes-based students are assumed to be more responsible and more capable of applying the knowledge learned. Another approach that the higher education in the Philippines is starting to adopt from other countries is blended learning. This combination of classroom and fully online instruction and learning is expected to be more effective. Participating in the online sessions, however, is entirely up to the students. Thus, the effect of blended learning on the performance of students in Statistics may be mediated by outcomes-based education. If there is a significant positive mediating effect, then blended learning can be optimized by integrating outcomes-based education. In this study, the sample will consist of four blended learning Statistics classes at Jose Rizal University in the second semester of AY 2015–2016. Two of these classes will be assigned randomly to the experimental group that will be handled using outcomes-based education. The two classes in the control group will be handled using the traditional lecture approach. Prior to the discussion of the first topic, a pre-test will be administered. The same test will be given as posttest after the last topic is covered. In order to establish equality of the groups’ initial knowledge, single factor ANOVA of the pretest scores will be performed. Single factor ANOVA of the posttest-pretest score differences will also be conducted to compare the performance of the experimental and control groups. When a significant difference is obtained in any of these ANOVAs, post hoc analysis will be done using Tukey's honestly significant difference test (HSD). Mediating effect will be evaluated using correlation and regression analyses. The groups’ initial knowledge are equal when the result of pretest scores ANOVA is not significant. If the result of score differences ANOVA is significant and the post hoc test indicates that the classes in the experimental group have significantly different scores from those in the control group, then outcomes-based education has a positive effect. Let blended learning be the independent variable (IV), outcomes-based education be the mediating variable (MV), and score difference be the dependent variable (DV). There is mediating effect when the following requirements are satisfied: significant correlation of IV to DV, significant correlation of IV to MV, significant relationship of MV to DV when both IV and MV are predictors in a regression model, and the absolute value of the coefficient of IV as sole predictor is larger than that when both IV and MV are predictors. With a positive mediating effect of outcomes-base education on the effect of blended learning on student performance, it will be recommended to integrate outcomes-based education into blended learning. This will yield the best learning results.

Keywords: outcome-based teaching, blended learning, face-to-face, student-centered

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Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari, Sorush Marzban

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The main aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting farmers' attitude of the Shanderman District in Masal (Guilan Province in the north of Iran), towards the concepts of multifunctional agriculture. The statistical population consisted of all 4908 in Shanderman.The sample of the present study consisted of 209 subjects who were selected from the total population using the Bartlett et al. Table. Questionnaire as the main tool of data collection was divided in two parts. The first part of questionnaire consisted of farmers' profiles regarding individual, technical-agronomic, economic and social characteristics. The second part included items to identify the farmers’ attitudes regarding different aspects of multifunctional agriculture. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed by professors and experts. Cronbach's alpha was used to determine the reliability (α= 0.844), which is considered an acceptable reliability value. Overall, the average scores of attitudes towards multifunctional agriculture show a positive tendency towards multifunctional agriculture, considering farmers' attitudes of the Shanderman district (SD = 0.53, M = 3.81). Results also highlight a significant difference between farmers' income source levels (F = 0.049) and agricultural literature review (F = 0.022) toward farmers' attitudes considering multifunctional agriculture (p < 0.05). Pearson correlations also indicated that there is a positive relationship between positive attitudes and family size (r = 0.154), farmers' experience (r = 0.246), size of land under cultivation (r = 0.186), income (r = 0.227), and social contribution activities (r = 0.224). The results of multiple regression analyses showed that the variation in the dependent variable depended on the farmers' experience in agricultural activities and their social contribution activities. This means that the variables included in the regression analysis are estimated to explain 12 percent of the variation in the dependent variable.

Keywords: multifunctional agriculture, attitude, effective factor, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Khadija Amin

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The significant contribution of foreign investment in promoting economic recovery, especially in countries recovering from conflict, is generally recognized. This study examines the influence of foreign investment on the economic development of countries that have had long-lasting internal conflicts. The study examines the complex correlation between foreign investment and economic progress using the production function framework based on endogenous growth theory. In addition to foreign investment, the research considers a range of factors that affect economic growth, such as trade dynamics, the spread of information, attempts to promote peace, changes in the labor market, and the accumulation of domestic capital. The study challenges common beliefs by revealing a statistically negligible negative association between GDP growth and foreign investment (FI) inflows in post-war economies. The existing literature highlights the positive impact of trade and foreign investment on economic growth. However, this study emphasizes that these impacts are complex and depend on various contextual factors such as trade policies, infrastructure development, domestic investment levels, human capital development, and macroeconomic stability. The results emphasize the crucial significance of foreign investment in stimulating development while also drawing attention to the intricacies of precisely assessing its economic consequences. Measuring the economic impact of foreign investment is a difficult task that requires detailed analysis considering many contextual elements and changing socioeconomic conditions.

Keywords: economic grouths, foreign investment, trade policies, domestic investment

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Authors: Sanjay Kumar, Arumugam Sankaran, Arjun K., Mousumi Das

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The amount of domestic consumption and population growth is having a positive impact on economic growth and development as observed by the Harrod-Domar and endogenous growth models. The paper negates the Solow growth model which argues the population growth has a detrimental impact on per capita and steady-state growth. Unlike the Solow model, the paper observes, the per capita income growth never falls zero, and it sustains as positive. Hence, our goal here is to investigate the relationship among population, domestic consumption and economic growth of India. For this estimation, annual data from 1980-2016 has been collected from World Development Indicator and Reserve Bank of India. To know the long run as well as short-run dynamics among the variables, we have employed the ARDL bounds testing approach of cointegration followed by modified Wald causality test to know the direction of causality. The conclusion from cointegration and ARDL estimates reveal that there is a long run positive and statistically significant relationship among the variables under study. At the same time, the causality test shows that there is a causal relationship that exists among the variables. Hence, this calls for policies which have a long run perspective in strengthening the capabilities and entitlements of people and stabilizing domestic demand so as to serve long run and short run growth and stability of the economy.

Keywords: cointegration, consumption, economic development, population growth

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Authors: Bhavna Malik

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The study is build on a theoretical framework that links characteristics of job, key attitudes and intention to leave, why faculty may be disengaging from institutional service. The literature indicates that job characteristics, key attitudes and intention to leave are very important for effective organizational functioning. In general, the literature showed that some job characteristics might be the antecedents of job satisfaction and the aggregate variable job scope was positively associated with organizational commitment, and these key attitudes predicted intention to leave negatively. The present study attempted to propose a new integrative model of the relationships among job characteristics, key attitudes, and intention to leave. The main purpose of the present study is to examine the effects of job characteristics on intention to leave. While examining the role of job characteristics, the mediating roles of key attitudes were taken into account in order to better understand how job characteristics affect the exhibition of intention to leave. The secondary purpose is to investigate the effects of job characteristics on key attitudes, and the effects of key attitudes on intention to leave. Job characteristics of remuneration, resource for professional activities, career opportunities were positively associated with the work attitude of job satisfaction. The aggregate job scope was positively associated with the work attitude of organizational commitment although no single job characteristic was significantly associated with organizational commitment. Commitment, however, did not significantly affect time spent on institutional service. Two job characteristics—time spent on research and time spent on teaching—were negatively associated with this behavior. In general, the literature showed that some job characteristics might be the antecedents of job satisfaction and the aggregate variable job scope was positively associated with organizational commitment, and these key attiudes predicted intention to leave negatively. In turn, job satisfaction and organizational commitment were negatively associated with the intention to leave. In addition to these, organizational commitment was negatively associated with the intention to leave. However, no significant direct association was found between job characteristics and intention to leave.

Keywords: Job Characteristics Model, job satisfaction, organizational commitment, intention to leave

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Authors: Carmen Avilés Palacios, Camilo Muñoz Arenas, Joaquín García Alfonso, Jesús González Arteaga, Alberto Alcalde Calonge

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There is a need for review of the consumption and production models of industrialized states in accordance with the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (1) (OECD, 2016). This constitutes the basis of the bioeconomy (2) that is focused on striking a balance between economic development, social development and environmental protection. Bioeconomy promotes the adequate use and consumption of renewable natural resources (3) and involves developing new products and services adapted to the principles of circular economy: more sustainable (reusable, biodegradable, renewable and recyclable) and with a lower carbon footprint (4). In this context, Urban Forest Innovation Lab (UFIL) grows, an Urban Laboratory for experimentation focused on promoting entrepreneurship in forest bioeconomy (www.uiacuenca.es). UFIL generates local wellness taking sustainable advantage of an endogenous asset, forests. UFIL boosts forest bioeconomy opening its doors of knowledge to pioneers in this field, giving the opportunity to be an active part of a change in the way of understanding the exploitation of natural resources, discovering business, learning strategies and techniques and incubating business ideas So far now, 100 entrepreneurs are incubating their nearly 30 new business plans. UFIL has promoted an ecosystem to connect the rural-urban world that promotes sustainable rural development around the forest.

Keywords: bioeconomy, forestry, innovation, entrepreneurship

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Authors: Nirupama Dixit, Anyaa Mittal, Neeru Sood

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Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive form of dementia, contributing to up to 70% of cases, mostly observed in elderly but is not restricted to old age. The pathophysiology of the disease is characterized by specific pathological changes in brain. The changes (i.e. accumulation of metal ions in brain, formation of extracellular β-amyloid (Aβ) peptide aggregates and tangle of hyper phosphorylated Tau protein inside neurons) damage the neuronal connections irreversibly. The current issues in improvement of life quality of Alzheimer's patient lies in the fact that the diagnosis is made at a late stage of the disease and the medications do not treat the basic causes of Alzheimer's. The targeted delivery of drug through the blood brain barrier (BBB) poses several limitations via traditional approaches for treatment. To overcome these drug delivery limitation, nanoparticles provide a promising solution. This review focuses on current strategies for efficient targeted drug delivery using nanoparticles and improving the quality of therapy provided to the patient. Nanoparticles can be used to encapsulate drug (which is generally hydrophobic) to ensure its passage to brain; they can be conjugated to metal ion chelators to reduce the metal load in neural tissue thus lowering the harmful effects of oxidative damage; can be conjugated with drug and monoclonal antibodies against BBB endogenous receptors. Finally this review covers how the nanoparticles can play a role in diagnosing the disease.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, β-amyloid plaques, blood brain barrier, metal chelators, nanoparticles

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Authors: Yeşim Özer Özkan, Fatma Büşra Fincan

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Biased sample is a regression of an observation, design process and all of the specifications lead to tendency of a side or the situation of leaving from the objectivity. It is expected that, test items are answered by the students who come from different social groups and the same ability not to be different from each other. The importance of the expectation increases especially during student selection and placement examinations. For example, all of the test items should not be beneficial for just a male or female group. The aim of the research is an investigation of item bias whether or not the exam included in 2014 free boarding and scholarship examination in terms of gender variable. Data which belong to 5th, 6th, and 7th grade the secondary education students were obtained by the General Directorate of Measurement, Evaluation and Examination Services in Turkey. 20% students were selected randomly within 192090 students. Based on 38418 students’ exam paper were examined for determination item bias. Winsteps 3.8.1 package program was used to determine bias in analysis of data, according to Rasch Model in respect to gender variable. Mathematics items tests were examined in terms of gender bias. Firstly, confirmatory factor analysis was applied twenty-five math questions. After that, NFI, TLI, CFI, IFI, RFI, GFI, RMSEA, and SRMR were examined in order to be validity and values of goodness of fit. Modification index values of confirmatory factor analysis were examined and then some of the items were omitted because these items gave an error in terms of model conformity and conceptual. The analysis shows that in 2014 free boarding and scholarship examination exam does not include bias. This is an indication of the gender of the examination to be made in favor of or against different groups of students.

Keywords: gender, item bias, placement test, Rasch model

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Authors: Ashis Mallick, Rajeev Ranjan

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The closed form solution for thermal stresses in an annular fin with hyperbolic profile is derived using Adomian decomposition method (ADM). The conductive-convective fin with variable thermal conductivity is considered in the analysis. The nonlinear heat transfer equation is efficiently solved by ADM considering insulated convective boundary conditions at the tip of fin. The constant of integration in the solution is to be estimated using minimum decomposition error method. The solution of temperature field is represented in a polynomial form for convenience to use in thermo-elasticity equation. The non-dimensional thermal stress fields are obtained using the ADM solution of temperature field coupled with the thermo-elasticity solution. The influence of the various thermal parameters in temperature field and stress fields are presented. In order to show the accuracy of the ADM solution, the present results are compared with the results available in literature. The stress fields in fin with hyperbolic profile are compared with those of uniform thickness profile. Result shows that hyperbolic fin profile is better choice for enhancing heat transfer. Moreover, less thermal stresses are developed in hyperbolic profile as compared to rectangular profile. Next, Nelder-Mead based simplex search method is employed for the inverse estimation of unknown non-dimensional thermal parameters in a given stress fields. Owing to the correlated nature of the unknowns, the best combinations of the model parameters which are satisfying the predefined stress field are to be estimated. The stress fields calculated using the inverse parameters give a very good agreement with the stress fields obtained from the forward solution. The estimated parameters are suitable to use for efficient and cost effective fin designing.

Keywords: Adomian decomposition, inverse analysis, hyperbolic fin, variable thermal conductivity

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Authors: Sukhdev Singh, Baljinder Singh Bal, Amandeep Singh, Kanchan Thappa

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A nation's future almost certainly rests on the future of its children, and a nation's wellbeing can be greatly improved by providing for the right upbringing of its children. Participating in physical education and sports programmes is crucial for reaching one's full potential. As we are all aware, sports have recently become incredibly popular on a global scale. Sports are continually becoming more and more popular, and this positive trend is probably going to last for some time to come. Motor abilities will provide more accurate information on the developmental process of children. Motor fitness is a component of physical fitness that includes strength, speed, flexibility, and agility, and is related to enhanced performance and the development of motor skills. In recent years, there has been increased interest in the differences in child growth between urban and rural environments. Differences in student growth, body dimensions, body composition, and fitness levels due to urban and rural environmental disparities have come into focus in recent years. The main aim of this study is to know the differentials of motor fitness components among the school children of rural and urban areas of the Jammu region. Material and Methods: In total, sixty male subjects (mean ± SD; age, 16.475 ± 1.0124 yrs.; height, 172.8 ± 2.0153 cm; Weight, 59.75 ± 3.628 kg) from the Jammu region took part in the study. A minimum sample size of 40 subjects was obtained and was derived from Rural (N1=20) and Urban (N2=20) school-going children. Statistical Applications: The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) version 14.0 was used for all analyses. The differences in the mean of each group for the selected variable were tested for the significance of difference by an independent samples t-test. For testing the hypotheses, the level of significance was set at 0.05. Results: Results revealed that there were significant differences of leg explosive strength (p=0.0040*), dynamic balance (p=0.0056*), and Agility (p=0.0176*) among the School Children of the rural and urban areas of the Jammu region. However, Results further revealed that there were not significant differences of cardio respiratory endurance (p=0.8612), speed (p=0.2231), Low Back/Hamstring Flexibility (p=0.6478), and Two Hand Coordination. (p= 0.0953) among the School Children of the rural and urban areas of the Jammu region. Conclusion: The results of study showed that there is significance difference between Rural and Urban School children of the Jammu region with regards to a variable," leg explosive strength, dynamic balance, Agility” and the there is no significance difference between Rural and Urban School children of the Jammu region with regards variable “cardio-respiratory endurance, speed, Low Back/Hamstring Flexibility, Two Hand Coordination”.

Keywords: motor fitness, rural areas, school children, urban areas

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Authors: M. V. Bartashevich

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The problem of heat transfer at thin laminar liquid film is solved numerically. A thin film of liquid flows down an inclined surface under conditions of variable heat flux on the wall. The use of thin films of liquid allows to create the effective technologies for cooling surfaces. However, it is important to investigate the most suitable cooling regimes from a safety point of view, in order, for example, to avoid overheating caused by the ruptures of the liquid film, and also to study the most effective cooling regimes depending on the character of the distribution of the heat flux on the wall, as well as the character of the blowing of the film surface, i.e., the external shear stress on its surface. In the statement of the problem on the film surface, the heat transfer coefficient between the liquid and gas is set, as well as a variable external shear stress - the intensity of blowing. It is shown that the combination of these factors - the degree of uniformity of the distribution of heat flux on the wall and the intensity of blowing, affects the efficiency of heat transfer. In this case, with an increase in the intensity of blowing, the cooling efficiency increases, reaching a maximum, and then decreases. It is also shown that the more uniform the heating of the wall, the more efficient the heat sink. A separate study was made for the flow regime along the horizontal surface when the liquid film moves solely due to external stress influence. For this mode, the analytical solution is used for the temperature at the entrance region for further numerical calculations downstream. Also the influence of the degree of uniformity of the heat flux distribution on the wall and the intensity of blowing of the film surface on the heat transfer efficiency was also studied. This work was carried out at the Kutateladze Institute of Thermophysics SB RAS (Russia) and supported by FASO Russia.

Keywords: Heat Flux, Heat Transfer Enhancement, External Blowing, Thin Liquid Film

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Authors: Ahmad A. Kader

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In the principles of Microeconomics course taught during the Fall Semester 2019, 158out of 179 students participated in the completion of two questionnaires and a survey describing their demographic and academic profiles. The two questionnaires include the 29 items of the Rotter Locus of Control Scale and the 52 items of the Schraw andDennisonMetacognitive Awareness Scale. The 52 items consist of 17 items describing knowledge of cognition and 37 items describing the regulation of cognition. The paper is intended to show the combined influence of locus of control, metacognitive knowledge, and metacognitive regulation on student performance. The survey covers variables that have been tested and recognized in economic education literature, which include GPA, gender, age, course level, race, student classification, whether the course was required or elective, employments, whether a high school economic course was taken, and attendance. Regression results show that of the economic education variables, GPA, classification, whether the course was required or elective, and attendance are the only significant variables in their influence on student grade. Of the educational psychology variables, the regression results show that the locus of control variable has a negative and significant effect, while the metacognitive knowledge variable has a positive and significant effect on student grade. Also, the adjusted R square value increased markedly with the addition of the locus of control, metacognitive knowledge, and metacognitive regulation variables to the regression equation. The t test results also show that students who are internally oriented and are high on the metacognitive knowledge scale significantly outperform students who are externally oriented and are low on the metacognitive knowledge scale. The implication of these results for educators is discussed in the paper.

Keywords: locus of control, metacognitive knowledge, metacognitive regulation, student performance, economic education

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Authors: Farzad Danaei, Yilmaz Akkaya

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In many civil engineering applications, especially in the construction of large concrete structures, the early age behavior of concrete has shown to be a crucial problem. The uneven rise in temperature within the concrete in these constructions is the fundamental issue for quality control. Therefore, developing accurate and fast temperature prediction models is essential. The thermal properties of concrete fluctuate over time as it hardens, but taking into account all of these fluctuations makes numerical models more complex. Experimental measurement of the thermal properties at the laboratory conditions also can not accurately predict the variance of these properties at site conditions. Therefore, specific heat capacity and the heat conductivity coefficient are two variables that are considered constant values in many of the models previously recommended. The proposed equations demonstrate that these two quantities are linearly decreasing as cement hydrates, and their value are related to the degree of hydration. The effects of changing the thermal conductivity and specific heat capacity values on the maximum temperature and the time it takes for concrete to reach that temperature are examined in this study using numerical sensibility analysis, and the results are compared to models that take a fixed value for these two thermal properties. The current study is conducted in 7 different mix designs of concrete with varying amounts of supplementary cementitious materials (fly ash and ground granulated blast furnace slag). It is concluded that the maximum temperature will not change as a result of the constant conductivity coefficient, but variable specific heat capacity must be taken into account, also about duration when a concrete's central node reaches its max value again variable specific heat capacity can have a considerable effect on the final result. Also, the usage of GGBFS has more influence compared to fly ash.

Keywords: early-age concrete, mass concrete, specific heat capacity, thermal conductivity coefficient

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Authors: Tsedeke Lambore Gemecho, Ayele Taye Goshu

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The main objective of this study is to identify the determinants of the number of international migrants in a household and to compare regression models for count response. This study is done by collecting data from total of 2288 household heads of 16 randomly sampled districts in Hadiya and Kembata-Tembaro zones of Southern Ethiopia. The Poisson mixed models, as special cases of the generalized linear mixed model, is explored to determine effects of the predictors: age of household head, farm land size, and household size. Two ethnicities Hadiya and Kembata are included in the final model as dummy variables. Stepwise variable selection has indentified four predictors: age of head, farm land size, family size and dummy variable ethnic2 (0=other, 1=Kembata). These predictors are significant at 5% significance level with count response number of migrant. The Poisson mixed model consisting of the four predictors with random effects districts. Area specific random effects are significant with the variance of about 0.5105 and standard deviation of 0.7145. The results show that the number of migrant increases with heads age, family size, and farm land size. In conclusion, there is a significantly high number of international migration per household in the area. Age of household head, family size, and farm land size are determinants that increase the number of international migrant in households. Community-based intervention is needed so as to monitor and regulate the international migration for the benefits of the society.

Keywords: Poisson regression, GLM, number of migrant, Hadiya and Kembata Tembaro zones

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Authors: Cleopatra Oluseye Ibukun

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Following the endogenous growth theory, entrepreneurship has been considered pivotal to economic growth and development, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. Meanwhile, efforts to reduce unemployment has yielded minimal result with over 36% of youth unemployment and a dwindling economic growth despite the country’s natural and human resource endowment. This study, therefore, investigates the effects of entrepreneurship and institutional quality on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria over the period 1996 to 2018. The data is obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), and the World Bank’s World Governance Indicators (WGI). The study period is guided by the availability of data, and the study employs both descriptive and econometric techniques of analysis (specifically, the Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Approach). This approach is preferable given that the variables are stationary at the first difference, while the bounds test suggests the existence of co-integration among the variables. By implication, an increase in entrepreneurship significantly improves economic growth, and it reduces unemployment in both the short-run and the long-run. Besides, institutional quality proxied by the control of corruption, political stability, and government effectiveness significantly mediates the interaction between entrepreneurship and macroeconomic performance. This study concludes that improved institutional quality enhances the effect of entrepreneurship on economic growth and unemployment in Nigeria, and it recommends an improvement in Nigeria’s institutional quality because it can jeopardise or augment the effect of entrepreneurship on macroeconomic performance.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, institutional quality, unemployment, gross domestic product, Nigeria

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Authors: Salah Hosseini, Hadi Ramezani, Bagher Shahbazi, Hossein Rabiei, Jafar Hooshmand, Hiwa Khaldi

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Diversity of energy portfolio and fluctuation of urban energy demand establish the need for more operational flexibility of combined Cooling, Heat, and Power Plants. Currently, the most common way to achieve these specifications is the use of heat storage devices or wet operation of gas turbines. The current work addresses using variable extraction steam turbine in conjugation with a gas turbine inlet cooling system as an alternative way for enhancement of a CCHP cycle operating range. A thermodynamic model is developed and typical apartments building in PARDIS Technology Park (located at Tehran Province) is chosen as a case study. Due to the variable Heat demand and using excess chiller capacity for turbine inlet cooling purpose, the mentioned steam turbine and TIAC system provided an opportunity for flexible operation of the cycle and boosted the independence of the power and heat generation in the CCHP plant. It was found that the ratio of power to the heat of CCHP cycle varies from 12.6 to 2.4 depending on the City heating and cooling demands and ambient condition, which means a good independence between power and heat generation. Furthermore, selection of the TIAC design temperature is done based on the amount of ratio of power gain to TIAC coil surface area, it was found that for current cycle arrangement the TIAC design temperature of 15 C is most economical. All analysis is done based on the real data, gathered from the local weather station of the PARDIS site.

Keywords: CCHP plant, GTG, HRSG, STG, TIAC, operational flexibility, power to heat ratio

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Authors: Khalid Yousuf Ahmed

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At the beginning of growth period, East Asian countries achieved impressive economic growth for the decades. They transformed from agricultural economy toward industrialization and contributed to dynamic structural transformation. The achievements were driven by government-led development policies that implemented effective innovation policy to boost technological capability of local firms. Recently, most Sub-Saharan African have been showing sustainable growth. Exceptionally, Ethiopia has been recording double-digit growth for a decade. Hence, Ethiopia has claimed to follow the footstep of East Asia development model. The study is going to examine whether Ethiopia can replicate innovation and economic growth model of East Asia by using Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and China as a case to illustrate their model of growth. This research will be based on empirical data gathering and extended theory of national innovation system and economic growth theory. Moreover, the methodology is based on Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) and also employing cross-countries regression analysis. The results explained that there is a significant relationship between innovation indicators and economic growth in East Asian countries while the relationship is non-existing for Ethiopia except implementing similar policies and achieving similar growth trend. Therefore, Ethiopia needs to introduce inclusive policies that give priority to improving human capital and invest on the knowledge-based economy to replicate East Asian Model.

Keywords: economic growth, FDI, endogenous growth theory, East Asia model

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Authors: Hafida Merzouk

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Urinary tract infections are among the most serious public health issues in all age groups. Thus, the empirical therapy should based on local levels of resistance, as indicated in several studies from different countries, to effectively avoid the emergence of multidrug-resistant bacterial strains and recurrent infections. Numerous effective antibiotic treatments are available, but wouldbe ineffective for treating recurrent cystitis caused by a urinary tract infection, as well as the emergence of drug resistance. That iswhy the aim of this study was to highlight the antibacterial and the antioxidant activity of 11 medicinal plants used traditionally in Algeria against E. coli, the most responsible urinary tract infections. First, the extraction of total polyphenols with aqueous acetone showed variable yields. The highest yield was obtained by Asplenium trichomanes with 27%, followed by Petroselinum crispum and Ciannamomum cassia with an equal yield of 21%. Artemisia herba-alba gave the lowest yield (9%). The extracts of different plants showed variable contents of phenolic compounds. Reducing power and DPPH (2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl) scavenging activity revealed that most of the extracts studied had significant activity. The anti-free radical activity was very high in the extract of A splenium adiantum-nigrum compared with the other extracts studied, but Petroselinum crispum and Parietaria officinalis had the lowest reducing activity; Antibacterial activity was determined on E. coli strainsusing the diffusion, MICs (Minimum Inhibitory Concentrations) and MBCs (Minimum Bactericidal concentrations) methods. The strains tested were sensitive to most extracts studied, except Asplenium adiantum-nigrum extract, for which both strains showed resistance.

Keywords: E. coli, medicinal plants, phenolic compounds, urinary infections

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Authors: Agnieszka Dudzik

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The problem of correlation between random variables in the structural reliability analysis has been extensively discussed in literature on the subject. The cases taken under consideration were usually related to correlation between random variables from one side of ultimate limit state: correlation between particular loads applied on structure or correlation between resistance of particular members of a structure as a system. It has been proved that positive correlation between these random variables reduces the reliability of structure and increases the probability of failure. In the paper, the problem of correlation between random variables from both side of the limit state equation will be taken under consideration. The simplest case where these random variables are of the normal distributions will be concerned. The case when a degree of that correlation is described by the covariance or the coefficient of correlation will be used. Special attention will be paid on questions: how much that correlation changes the reliability level and can it be ignored. In reliability analysis will be used well-known methods for assessment of the failure probability: based on the Hasofer-Lind reliability index and Monte Carlo method adapted to the problem of correlation. The main purpose of this work will be a presentation how correlation of random variables influence on reliability index of steel bar structures. Structural design parameters will be defined as deterministic values and random variables. The latter will be correlated. The criterion of structural failure will be expressed by limit functions related to the ultimate and serviceability limit state. In the description of random variables will be used only for the normal distribution. Sensitivity of reliability index to the random variables will be defined. If the reliability index sensitivity due to the random variable X will be low when compared with other variables, it can be stated that the impact of this variable on failure probability is small. Therefore, in successive computations, it can be treated as a deterministic parameter. Sensitivity analysis leads to simplify the description of the mathematical model, determine the new limit functions and values of the Hasofer-Lind reliability index. In the examples, the NUMPRESS software will be used in the reliability analysis.

Keywords: correlation of random variables, reliability index, sensitivity of reliability index, steel structure

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Authors: Natalia Feruleva

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The goal of this paper is to develop the fraud risk assessment model basing on both relational and financial data and test the impact of the relationships between Russian non-public companies on the likelihood of financial fraud commitment. Relationships mean various linkages between companies such as parent-subsidiary relationship and person-related relationships. These linkages may provide additional opportunities for committing fraud. Person-related relationships appear when firms share a director, or the director owns another firm. The number of companies belongs to CEO and managed by CEO, the number of subsidiaries was calculated to measure the relationships. Moreover, the dummy variable describing the existence of parent company was also included in model. Control variables such as financial leverage and return on assets were also implemented because they describe the motivating factors of fraud. To check the hypotheses about the influence of the chosen parameters on the likelihood of financial fraud, information about person-related relationships between companies, existence of parent company and subsidiaries, profitability and the level of debt was collected. The resulting sample consists of 160 Russian non-public firms. The sample includes 80 fraudsters and 80 non-fraudsters operating in 2006-2017. The dependent variable is dichotomous, and it takes the value 1 if the firm is engaged in financial crime, otherwise 0. Employing probit model, it was revealed that the number of companies which belong to CEO of the firm or managed by CEO has significant impact on the likelihood of financial fraud. The results obtained indicate that the more companies are affiliated with the CEO, the higher the likelihood that the company will be involved in financial crime. The forecast accuracy of the model is about is 80%. Thus, the model basing on both relational and financial data gives high level of forecast accuracy.

Keywords: financial fraud, fraud prediction, non-public companies, regression analysis, relational data

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Authors: Abimbola M. Enitan, J. Adeyemo

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Anaerobic modeling is a useful tool to describe and simulate the condition and behaviour of anaerobic treatment units for better effluent quality and biogas generation. The present investigation deals with the anaerobic treatment of brewery wastewater with varying organic loads. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) and total suspended solids (TSS) of the influent and effluent of the bioreactor were determined at various retention times to generate data for kinetic coefficients. The bio-kinetic coefficients in the modified Stover–Kincannon kinetic and methane generation models were determined to study the performance of anaerobic digestion process. At steady-state, the determination of the kinetic coefficient (K), the endogenous decay coefficient (Kd), the maximum growth rate of microorganisms (µmax), the growth yield coefficient (Y), ultimate methane yield (Bo), maximum utilization rate constant Umax and the saturation constant (KB) in the model were calculated to be 0.046 g/g COD, 0.083 (dˉ¹), 0.117 (d-¹), 0.357 g/g, 0.516 (L CH4/gCODadded), 18.51 (g/L/day) and 13.64 (g/L/day) respectively. The outcome of this study will help in simulation of anaerobic model to predict usable methane and good effluent quality during the treatment of industrial wastewater. Thus, this will protect the environment, conserve natural resources, saves time and reduce cost incur by the industries for the discharge of untreated or partially treated wastewater. It will also contribute to a sustainable long-term clean development mechanism for the optimization of the methane produced from anaerobic degradation of waste in a close system.

Keywords: brewery wastewater, methane generation model, environment, anaerobic modeling

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Authors: Shirin jalili, Hadi Shirzad, Samaneh Nabavi, Somayeh Khanjani

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Biosensors in forensic analysis are ideal biological tools that can be used for rapid and sensitive initial screening and testing to detect of suspicious components like biological and chemical agent in crime scenes. The wide use of different biomolecules such as proteins, nucleic acids, microorganisms, antibodies and enzymes makes it possible. These biosensors have great advantages such as rapidity, little sample manipulation and high sensitivity, also Because of their stability, specificity and low cost they have become a very important tool to Forensic analysis and detection of crime. In crime scenes different substances such as rape samples, Semen, saliva fingerprints and blood samples, act as a detecting elements for biosensors. On the other hand, successful fluid recovery via biosensor has the propensity to yield a highly valuable source of genetic material, which is important in finding the suspect. Although current biological fluid testing techniques are impaired for identification of body fluids. But these methods have disadvantages. For example if they are to be used simultaneously, Often give false positive result. These limitations can negatively result the output of a case through missed or misinterpreted evidence. The use of biosensor enable criminal researchers the highly sensitive and non-destructive detection of biological fluid through interaction with several fluid-endogenous and other biological and chemical contamination at the crime scene. For this reason, using of the biosensors for detecting the biological fluid found at the crime scenes which play an important role in identifying the suspect and solving the criminal.

Keywords: biosensors, forensic analysis, biological fluid, crime detection

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Authors: Jianan Sun, Ziwen Ye

Abstract:

Multidimensional computerized adaptive testing (MCAT) is a popular research topic in psychometrics. It is important for practitioners to clearly know the item-trait patterns of administered items when a test like MCAT is operated. Item-trait pattern recognition refers to detecting which latent traits in a psychological test are measured by each of the specified items. If the item-trait patterns of the replenished items in MCAT item pool are well detected, the interpretability of the items can be improved, which can further promote the abilities of the examinees who attending the MCAT to be accurately estimated. This research explores to solve the item-trait pattern recognition problem of the replenished items in MCAT item pool from the perspective of statistical variable selection. The popular multidimensional item response theory model, multidimensional two-parameter logistic model, is assumed to fit the response data of MCAT. The proposed method uses the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to detect item-trait patterns of replenished items based on the essential information of item responses and ability estimates of examinees collected from a designed MCAT procedure. Several advantages of the proposed method are outlined. First, the proposed method does not strictly depend on the relative order between the replenished items and the selected operational items, so it allows the replenished items to be mixed into the operational items in reasonable order such as considering content constraints or other test requirements. Second, the LASSO used in this research improves the interpretability of the multidimensional replenished items in MCAT. Third, the proposed method can exert the advantage of shrinkage method idea for variable selection, so it can help to check item quality and key dimension features of replenished items and saves more costs of time and labors in response data collection than traditional factor analysis method. Moreover, the proposed method makes sure the dimensions of replenished items are recognized to be consistent with the dimensions of operational items in MCAT item pool. Simulation studies are conducted to investigate the performance of the proposed method under different conditions for varying dimensionality of item pool, latent trait correlation, item discrimination, test lengths and item selection criteria in MCAT. Results show that the proposed method can accurately detect the item-trait patterns of the replenished items in the two-dimensional and the three-dimensional item pool. Selecting enough operational items from the item pool consisting of high discriminating items by Bayesian A-optimality in MCAT can improve the recognition accuracy of item-trait patterns of replenished items for the proposed method. The pattern recognition accuracy for the conditions with correlated traits is better than those with independent traits especially for the item pool consisting of comparatively low discriminating items. To sum up, the proposed data-driven method based on the LASSO can accurately and efficiently detect the item-trait patterns of replenished items in MCAT.

Keywords: item-trait pattern recognition, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, multidimensional computerized adaptive testing, variable selection

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Authors: Heru Al Amin

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Sarcoidosis is a granulomatous inflammatory disorder of unclear etiology that can affect multiple different organ systems. Isolated cardiac sarcoidosis is a very rare condition that causes lethal arrhythmia and heart failure. A definite diagnosis of cardiac sarcoidosis remains challenging. The use of multimodality imaging plays a pivotal role in the diagnosis of this entity. Case summary: In this report, we discuss a case of a 50-year-old woman who presented with recurrent palpitation, dizziness, vertigo and presyncope. Electrocardiogram revealed variable heart blocks, including first-degree AV block, second-degree AV block, high-degree AV block, complete AV block, trifascicular block and sometimes supraventricular arrhythmia. Twenty-four hours of Holter monitoring show atrial bigeminy, first-degree AV block and trifascicular block. Transthoracic echocardiography showed Thinning of basal anteroseptal and inferred septum with LV dilatation with reduction of Global Longitudinal Strain. A dual-chamber pacemaker was implanted. CT Coronary angiogram showed no coronary artery disease. Cardiac magnetic resonance revealed basal anteroseptal and inferior septum thinning with focal edema with LGE suggestive of sarcoidosis. Computed tomography of the chest showed no lymphadenopathy or pulmonary infiltration. 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) of the whole body showed. We started steroids and followed up with the patient. Conclusion: This case serves to highlight the challenges in identifying and managing isolated CS in a young patient with recurrent syncope with variable heart block. Early, even late initiation of steroids can improve arrhythmia as well as left ventricular function.

Keywords: cardiac sarcoidosis, conduction abnormality, syncope, cardiac MRI

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Authors: N. Boussoualim, H. Trabsa, I. Krache, S. Aouachria, S. Boumerfeg, L. Arrar, A. Baghiani

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The aim of this study consisted in evaluating the antioxidant in vivo properties, anti-hemolytic and XOR inhibitory effect of Globularia alypum L. (GA) extracts. GA was submitted to extraction and fractionation to give crude (CrE), chloroformique (ChE), ethyle acetate (EAE) and aqueos (AqE) extracts. Total polyphenols contents of GA extracts were determined; EAE is the most rich in polyphenols (157,74±5,27 mg GAE/mg of extract). GA Extracts inhibited XO in a concentration-dependent manner, the EAE showed the highest inhibitory properties on the XOR activity (IC50=0,083±0,001 mg/ml), followed by CrE and ChE. The antioxidant activities of the CrE, EAE, and AqE were tested by an in vivo assay in mice, the plasma ability to inhibit DPPH radical was measured, The CrE was found to exhibit the greatest scavenger activity with 48.41±2.763%, followed by AqE and EAE (40.54±7.51% and 41.79±1.654%, respectively). Total antioxidant capacity of red blood cells was measured, from the kinetics of hemolysis obtained. The calculated HT50 reveal an extension of time for half hemolysis in all treated groups compared with the control group. CrE increase significantly HT50 (112,8±2,427). The hemolysis is lagged, indicating that endogenous antioxidants in the erythrocytes can trap radicals to protect them against free-radical-induced hemolysis. Antimicrobial activities of the extracts were determined by the disc diffusion method. Test microorganisms were; 4 Gram positive, 7 gram negative bacteria, most active extracts were EAE and CrE. We deduce a great relationship between the effect on the extracts antibacterial effect and their contents in flavonoid.

Keywords: Globularia alypum, Xanthine oxidoreductase, in vivo-antioxidant activity, hemolysis, polyphenol

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Authors: Dimitris Varsamis, Nicholas Karampetakis

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It is well known that any interpolating polynomial P(x,y) on the vector space Pn,m of two-variable polynomials with degree less than n in terms of x and less than m in terms of y has various representations that depends on the basis of Pn,m that we select i.e. monomial, Newton and Lagrange basis etc. The aim of this paper is twofold: a) to present transformations between the coordinates of the polynomial P(x,y) in the aforementioned basis and b) to present transformations between these bases.

Keywords: bivariate interpolation polynomial, polynomial basis, transformations, interpolating polynomial

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Authors: Harman Jaggi, David Steinsaltz, Shripad Tuljapurkar

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Understanding the effect of fluctuations on populations is crucial in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, climate change, and biological invasions, among others. Migration in response to environmental disturbances enables populations to escape unfavorable conditions, benefit from new environments and thereby ride out fluctuations in variable environments. Would populations disperse if there is no uncertainty? Karlin showed in 1982 that when sub-populations experience distinct but fixed growth rates at different sites, greater mixing of populations will lower the overall growth rate relative to the most favorable site. Here we ask if and when environmental variability favors migration over no-migration. Specifically, in random environments, would a small amount of migration increase the overall long-run growth rate relative to the zero migration case? We use analysis and simulations to show how long-run growth rate changes with migration rate. Our results show that when fitness (dis)advantages fluctuate over time across sites, migration may allow populations to benefit from variability. When there is one best site with highest growth rate, the effect of migration on long-run growth rate depends on the difference in expected growth between sites, scaled by the variance of the difference. When variance is large, there is a substantial probability of an inferior site experiencing higher growth rate than its average. Thus, a high variance can compensate for a difference in average growth rates between sites. Positive correlations in growth rates across sites favor less migration. With multiple sites and large fluctuations, the length of shortest cycle (excursion) from the best site (on average) matters, and we explore the interplay between excursion length, average differences between sites and the size of fluctuations. Our findings have implications for conservation biology: even when there are superior sites in a sea of poor habitats, variability and habitat quality across space may be key to determining the importance of migration.

Keywords: migration, variable-environments, random, dispersal, fluctuations, habitat-quality

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Authors: Libena Cernohorska

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The goal of this paper is to specify factors influencing the profitability of selected banks. Next, a model will be created to help establish variables that have a demonstrable influence on the development of the selected banks' profitability ratios. Czech banks and their international parent companies were selected for analyzing profitability. Banks categorized as large banks (according to the Czech National Bank's system, which ranks banks according to balance sheet total) were selected to represent the Czech banks. Two ratios, the return on assets ratio (ROA) and the return on equity ratio (ROE) are used to assess bank profitability. Six endogenous and four external indicators were selected from among other factors that influence bank profitability. The data analyzed were for the years 2001 – 2013. First, correlation analysis, which was supposed to eliminate correlated values, was conducted. A large number of correlated values were established on the basis of this analysis. The strongly correlated values were omitted. Despite this, the subsequent regression analysis of profitability for the individual banks that were selected did not confirm that the selected variables influenced their profitability. The studied factors' influence on bank profitability was demonstrated only for Československá Obchodní Banka and Société Générale using regression analysis. For Československá Obchodní Banka, it was demonstrated that inflation level and the amount of the central bank's interest rate influenced the return on assets ratio and that capital adequacy and market concentration influenced the return on equity ratio for Société Générale.

Keywords: banks, profitability, regression analysis, ROA, ROE

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