Search results for: distribution channel

Authors: Fawwaz Eniola Fajingbesi, Nur Shahida Midia, Elsheikh M. A. Elsheikh, Siti Hajar Yusoff

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Empirical analysis of lightning related phenomena in real time is extremely dangerous due to the relatively high electric discharge involved. Hence, design and optimization of efficient grounding systems depending on real time empirical methods are impeded. Using numerical methods, the dynamics of complex systems could be modeled hence solved as sets of linear and non-linear systems . In this work, the induced current distribution as lightning strike traverses the soil have been numerically modeled in a 2D axial-symmetry and solved using finite element method (FEM) in COMSOL Multiphysics 5.2 AC/DC module. Stratified and non- stratified electrode system were considered in the solved model and soil conductivity (σ) varied between 10 – 58 mS/m. The result discussed therein were the electric field distribution, current distribution and soil ionization phenomena. It can be concluded that the electric field and current distribution is influenced by the injected electric potential and the non-linearity in soil conductivity. The result from numerical calculation also agrees with previously laboratory scale empirical results.

Keywords: current distribution, grounding systems, lightning discharge, numerical model, soil conductivity, soil ionization

Procedia PDF Downloads 315

Authors: Silvia Faroni, Olivier Le Courtois, Krzysztof Ostaszewski

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While a lot of research concentrates on the merits of VaR and TCE, which are the two most classic risk indicators used by financial institutions, little has been written on explaining why regulators favor the choice of VaR or TCE in their set of rules. In this paper, we investigate the preferences of regulators with the aim of understanding why, for instance, a VaR with a given confidence level is ultimately retained. Further, this paper provides equivalence rules that explain how a given choice of VaR can be equivalent to a given choice of TCE. Then, we introduce a new risk indicator that extends TCE by providing a more versatile weighting of the constituents of probability distribution tails. All of our results are illustrated using the generalized Pareto distribution.

Keywords: generalized pareto distribution, generalized tail conditional expectation, regulator preferences, risk measure

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Mike R. Bambach

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Increasing awareness of environmental concerns is leading a drive towards more sustainable structural products for the built environment. Natural fibres such as flax, jute and hemp have recently been considered for fibre-resin composites, with a major motivation for their implementation being their notable sustainability attributes. While recent decades have seen substantial interest in the use of such natural fibres in composite materials, much of this research has focused on the materials aspects, including fibre processing techniques, composite fabrication methodologies, matrix materials and their effects on the mechanical properties. The present study experimentally investigates the compression strength of structural channel sections of flax, jute and hemp, with a particular focus on their suitability for residential stud wall applications. The section geometry is optimised for maximum strength via the introduction of complex stiffeners in the webs and flanges. Experimental results on both natural fibre composite channel sections and typical steel and timber residential wall studs are compared. The geometrically optimised natural fibre composite channels are shown to have compression capacities suitable for residential wall stud applications, identifying them as a potentially viable alternative to traditional building materials in such application, and potentially other light structural applications.

Keywords: channel sections, natural fibre composites, residential stud walls, structural composites

Procedia PDF Downloads 317

Authors: Mamadou I. Wade, Henry C. Ogworonjo, Madiha Gul, Mandoye Ndoye, Mohamed Chouikha, Wayne Patterson

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In this paper, we present a novel application of the Paillier cryptographic system to the encryption of RGB (Red Green Blue) images. In this method, an RGB image is first separated into its constituent channel images, and the Paillier encryption function is applied to each of the channels pixel intensity values. Next, the encrypted image is combined and compressed if necessary before being transmitted through an unsecured communication channel. The transmitted image is subsequently recovered by a decryption process. We performed a series of security and performance analyses to the recovered images in order to verify their robustness to security attack. The results show that the proposed image encryption scheme produces highly secured encrypted images.

Keywords: image encryption, Paillier cryptographic system, RBG image encryption, Paillier

Procedia PDF Downloads 240

Authors: Bayram Sahin, Baris Gezdirici, Murat Ceylan, Ibrahim Ates

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In this experimental study, the effects of heat transfer and flow characteristics on lattice geometric heat sinks, where high rates of heat removal are required, were investigated. The design parameters were Reynolds number, the height of heat sink (H), horizontal (Sy) and vertical (Sx) distances between heat sinks. In the experiments, the Reynolds number ranged from 4000 to 20000; heat sink heights were (H) 20 mm and 40 mm; the distances (Sy) between the heat sinks in the flow direction were45 mm, 32 mm, 23.3 mm; the distances (Sx) between the heat sinks perpendicular to the flow direction were selected to be 23.3 mm, 12.5 mm and 6 mm. A total of 90 experiments were conducted and the maximum Nusselt number and minimum friction coefficient were targeted. Experimental results have shown that heat sinks in lattice geometry have a significant effect on heat transfer enhancement. Under the different experimental conditions, the highest increase in Nusselt number was 283% while the lowest increase was calculated as 66% as compared with the straight channel results. The lowest increase in the friction factor was also obtained as 173% according to the straight channel results. It is seen that the increase in heat sink height and flow velocity increased the level of turbulence in the channel, leading to higher Nusselt number and friction factor values.

Keywords: forced convection, heat transfer enhancement, lattice geometric heat sinks, pressure drop

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Authors: M. A. Akhavan-Behabadi, M. Najafi, A. Abbasi

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An empirical investigation was performed in order to study the heat transfer characteristics of R600a flow boiling inside horizontal flattened tubes and the simultaneous effect of nanoparticles on boiling heat transfer in flattened channel. Round copper tubes of 8.7 mm I.D. were deformed into flattened shapes with different inside heights of 6.9, 5.5, and 3.4 mm as test areas. The effect of different parameters such as mass flux, vapor quality and inside height on heat transfer coefficient was studied. Flattening the tube caused a significant enhancement in heat transfer performance, so that the maximum augmentation ratio of 163% was obtained in flattened channel with lowest internal height. A new correlation was developed based on the present experimental data to predict the heat transfer coefficient in flattened tubes. This correlation estimated 90% of the entire database within ±20%. The best flat channel with the point of view of heat transfer performance was selected to study the effect of nanoparticle on heat transfer enhancement. Four homogenized mixtures containing 1% weight fraction of R600a/oil with different CuO nanoparticles concentration including 0.5%, 1% and 1.5% mass fraction of R600a/oil/CuO were studied. Observations show that heat transfer was improved by adding nanoparticles, which lead to maximum enhancement of 79% compare to the pure refrigerant at the same test condition.

Keywords: nano fluids, heat transfer, flattend tube, transport phenomena

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Authors: Dorota Witkowska, Paweł Gosek, Lukasz Swiecicki, Wojciech Jernajczyk, Bruce J. West, Miroslaw Latka

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In clinical practice, the selection of an antidepressant often degrades to lengthy trial-and-error. In this work we employ a normalized wavelet power of alpha waves as a biomarker of antidepressant treatment response. This novel EEG metric takes into account both non-stationarity and intersubject variability of alpha waves. We recorded resting, 19-channel EEG (closed eyes) in 22 inpatients suffering from unipolar (UD, n=10) or bipolar (BD, n=12) depression. The EEG measurement was done at the end of the short washout period which followed previously unsuccessful pharmacotherapy. The normalized alpha wavelet power of 11 responders was markedly different than that of 11 nonresponders at several, mostly temporoparietal sites. Using the prediction of treatment response based on the normalized alpha wavelet power, we achieved 81.8% sensitivity and 81.8% specificity for channel T4.

Keywords: alpha waves, antidepressant, treatment outcome, wavelet

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Authors: Almalki M., Alajmi M., Qadrouh Y., Alzahrani E., Sulaiman A., Aleid M., Albaiji A., Alfaifi H., Alhadadi A., Almotairy H., Alrasheed R., Alhafedh Y.

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High-resolution marine seismic survey is a well-established technique that commonly used to characterize near-surface sediments and geological structures at shallow water. We conduct single channel seismic survey to provide high quality seismic images for near-surface sediments upto 100m depth at Jubal costal area, Arabian Gulf. Eight hydrophones streamer has been used to collect stacked seismic traces alone 5km seismic line. To reach the required depth, we have used spark system that discharges energies above 5000 J with expected frequency output span the range from 200 to 2000 Hz. A suitable processing flow implemented to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio of the seismic profile. We have found that shallow sedimentary layers at the study site have complex pattern of reflectivity, which decay significantly due to amount of source energy used as well as the multiples associated to seafloor. In fact, the results reveal that single channel marine seismic at shallow water is a cost-effective technique that can be easily repeated to observe any possibly changes in the wave physical properties at the near surface layers

Keywords: shallow marine single-channel data, high resolution, frequency filtering, shallow water

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Authors: G. V. Siva Krishna Rao, B. Srinivasa Rao

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The main aim of the paper is to implement a technique using distributed generation in distribution systems to reduce the distribution system losses and to improve voltage profiles. The fuzzy logic technique is used to select the proper location of DG and an analytical method is proposed to calculate the size of DG unit at any power factor. The optimal sizes of DG units are compared with optimal sizes obtained using the genetic algorithm. The suggested method is programmed under Matlab software and is tested on IEEE 33 bus system and the results are presented.

Keywords: DG Units, sizing of DG units, analytical methods, optimum size

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Authors: Mahdy ‎Esmailian, Mahdi ‎Doostparast, Ahmad ‎Parsian

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‎In this article‎, ‎sequential order statistics (SOS) censoring type II samples coming from the generalized Pareto distribution are considered‎. ‎Maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the unknown parameters are derived on the basis of the available multiple SOS data‎. ‎Necessary conditions for existence and uniqueness of the derived ML estimates are given‎. Due to complexity in the proposed likelihood function‎, ‎a useful re-parametrization is suggested‎. ‎For illustrative purposes‎, ‎a Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted and an illustrative example is analysed‎.

Keywords: bayesian estimation‎, generalized pareto distribution‎, ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎, sequential order statistics

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Authors: Adewusi Adeoluwawale, Oronti Iyabosola Busola, Akinola Iretiayo, Komolafe Olusola Aderibigbe

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The complex and radial structure of the low voltage distribution network (415V) makes it vulnerable to faults which are due to system and the environmental related factors. Besides these, the protective scheme employed on the low voltage network which is the fuse cannot be monitored remotely such that in the event of sustained fault, the utility will have to rely solely on the complaint brought by customers for loss of supply and this tends to increase the length of outages. A microcontroller based fault detection scheme is hereby developed to detect low voltage and high voltage fault conditions which are common faults on this network. Voltages below 198V and above 242V on the distribution feeders are classified and detected as low voltage and high voltages respectively. Results shows that the developed scheme produced a good response time in the detection of these faults.

Keywords: fault detection, low voltage distribution feeders, outage times, sustained faults

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Authors: Soojin Kim, Jiwon Yang, Sungzoon Cho

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As a seasonal product is only in demand for a short time, inventory management is critical to profits. Both markdowns and stockouts decrease the return on perishable products; therefore, researchers have been interested in the distribution of seasonal products with the aim of maximizing profits. In this study, we propose a data-driven seasonal product sales pattern analysis method for individual retail outlets based on observed sales data clustering; the proposed method helps in determining distribution strategies.

Keywords: clustering, distribution, sales pattern, seasonal product

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Authors: Yue Yan, Chang Nyung Kim

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The numerical investigation of the three-dimensional liquid-metal (LM) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) flows in a curved duct with flow channel insert (FCI) is presented in this paper, based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. A uniform magnetic field is applied perpendicular to the duct. The interdependency of the flow variables is examined in terms of the flow velocity, current density, electric potential and pressure. The electromagnetic characteristics of the LM MHD flows are reviewed with an introduction of the electric-field component and electro-motive component of the current. The influence of the existence of the FCI on the fluid flow is investigated in detail. The case with FCI slit located near the side layer yields smaller pressure gradient with stable flow field.

Keywords: curved duct, flow channel insert, liquid-metal, magnetohydrodynamic

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Authors: Selami Şahin

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In this paper, in order to achieve sufficient bit error rate (BER) according to zenith angle of the satellite to ground station, SNR requirement is investigated utilizing pulse position modulation (PPM). To realize explicit results, all parameters such as link distance, Rytov variance, scintillation index, wavelength, aperture diameter of the receiver, Fried's parameter and zenith angle have been taken into account. Results indicate that after some parameters are determined since the constraints of the system, to achieve desired BER, required SNR values are in wide range while zenith angle changes from small to large values. Therefore, in order not to utilize high link margin, either SNR should adjust according to zenith angle or link should establish with predetermined intervals of the zenith angle.

Keywords: Free-space optical communication, optical downlink channel, atmospheric turbulence, wireless optical communication

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Authors: Gunasekaran Raja, Ramkumar Jayaraman, Rajakumar Arul, Kottilingam Kottursamy

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Broadband Wireless Network (BWN) is the promising technology nowadays due to the increased number of smartphones. Buffering scheme using network coding considers the reliability and proper degree distribution in Worldwide interoperability for Microwave Access (WiMAX) multi-hop network. Using network coding, a secure way of transmission is performed which helps in improving throughput and reduces the packet loss in the multicast network. At the outset, improved network coding is proposed in multicast wireless mesh network. Considering the problem of performance overhead, degree distribution makes a decision while performing buffer in the encoding / decoding process. Consequently, BuS (Buffer Scheme) based on network coding is proposed in the multi-hop network. Here the encoding process introduces buffer for temporary storage to transmit packets with proper degree distribution. The simulation results depend on the number of packets received in the encoding/decoding with proper degree distribution using buffering scheme.

Keywords: encoding and decoding, buffer, network coding, degree distribution, broadband wireless networks, multicast

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Authors: Reza Nasrollahpour, Mohamad Hidayat Bin Jamal, Zulhilmi Bin Ismail

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Density currents are generated when the fluid of one density is released into another fluid with a different density. These currents occur in a variety of natural and man-made environments, and this emphasises the importance of studying them. In most practical cases, the density currents flow over the surfaces which are not plane; however, there have been limited investigations in this regard. This study uses laboratory experiments to analyse the influence of bottom roughness on the velocity distribution within these dense underflows. The currents are analysed over a plane surface and three different configurations of beam-roughened beds. The velocity profiles are collected using Acoustic Doppler Velocimetry technique, and the distribution of velocity within these currents is formulated for the tested beds. The results indicate that the empirical power and Gaussian relations can describe the velocity distribution in the inner and outer regions of the profiles, respectively. Moreover, it is found that the bottom roughness is the primary controlling parameter in the inner region.

Keywords: density currents, velocity profiles, Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter, bed roughness

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Bader Alruwaili, Surajit Ray

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Finite mixtures are a flexible and powerful tool that can be used for univariate and multivariate distributions, and a wide range of research analysis has been conducted based on the multivariate normal mixture and multivariate of a t-mixture. Determining the number of modes is an important activity that, in turn, allows one to determine the number of homogeneous groups in a population. Our work currently being carried out relates to the study of the modality of the skew normal distribution in the univariate and multivariate cases. For the skew normal distribution, the aims are associated with studying the modality of the skew normal distribution and providing the ridgeline, the ridgeline elevation function, the $\Pi$ function, and the curvature function, and this will be conducive to an exploration of the number and location of mode when mixing the two components of skew normal distribution. The subsequent objective is to apply these results to the application of real world data sets, such as flow cytometry data.

Keywords: mode, modality, multivariate skew normal, finite mixture, number of mode

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Authors: Rana Rimawi, Ayman Baklizi

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Skewed distributions are important models that are frequently used in applications. Generalized distributions form a class of skewed distributions and gain widespread use in applications because of their flexibility in data analysis. More specifically, the Generalized Logistic Distribution with its different types has received considerable attention recently. In this study, based on progressively type-II censored data, we will consider point estimation in type II Generalized Logistic Distribution (Type II GLD). We will develop several estimators for its unknown parameters, including maximum likelihood estimators (MLE), Bayes estimators and linear estimators (BLUE). The estimators will be compared using simulation based on the criteria of bias and Mean square error (MSE). An illustrative example of a real data set will be given.

Keywords: point estimation, type II generalized logistic distribution, progressive censoring, maximum likelihood estimation

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Authors: C. F. Kumru, C. Kocatepe, O. Arikan

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In this study, electric field distribution analyses for three pylon models are carried out by a Finite Element Method (FEM) based software. Analyses are performed in both stationary and time domains to observe instantaneous values along with the effective ones. Considering the results of the study, different line geometries is considerably affecting the magnitude and distribution of electric field although the line voltages are the same. Furthermore, it is observed that maximum values of instantaneous electric field obtained in time domain analysis are quite higher than the effective ones in stationary mode. In consequence, electric field distribution analyses should be individually made for each different line model and the limit exposure values or distances to residential buildings should be defined according to the results obtained.

Keywords: electric field, energy transmission line, finite element method, pylon

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Authors: Chaitanya Varma, Arpan Mehar

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The present study demonstrates the procedure to analyse speed data collected on various four-lane divided sections in India. Field data for the study was collected at different straight and curved sections on rural highways with the help of radar speed gun and video camera. The data collected at the sections were analysed and parameters pertain to speed distributions were estimated. The different statistical distribution was analysed on vehicle type speed data and for mixed traffic speed data. It was found that vehicle type speed data was either follows the normal distribution or Log-normal distribution, whereas the mixed traffic speed data follows more than one type of statistical distribution. The most common fit observed on mixed traffic speed data were Beta distribution and Weibull distribution. The separate operating speed model based on traffic and roadway geometric parameters were proposed in the present study. The operating speed model with traffic parameters and curve geometry parameters were established. Two different operating speed models were proposed with variables 1/R and Ln(R) and were found to be realistic with a different range of curve radius. The models developed in the present study are simple and realistic and can be used for forecasting operating speed on four-lane highways.

Keywords: highway, mixed traffic flow, modeling, operating speed

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Authors: Todd Zhou, Mikhail Yurochkin

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Out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is receiving increasing amounts of attention in the machine learning research community, boosted by recent technologies, such as autonomous driving and image processing. This newly-burgeoning field has called for the need for more effective and efficient methods for out-of-distribution generalization methods. Without accessing the label information, deploying machine learning models to out-of-distribution domains becomes extremely challenging since it is impossible to evaluate model performance on unseen domains. To tackle this out-of-distribution detection difficulty, we designed a model selection pipeline algorithm and developed a model selection framework with different impurity and randomness measurements to evaluate and choose the best-performing models for out-of-distribution data. By exploring different randomness scores based on predicted probabilities, we adopted the out-of-distribution entropy and developed a custom-designed score, ”CombinedScore,” as the evaluation criterion. This proposed score was created by adding labeled source information into the judging space of the uncertainty entropy score using harmonic mean. Furthermore, the prediction bias was explored through the equality of opportunity violation measurement. We also improved machine learning model performance through model calibration. The effectiveness of the framework with the proposed evaluation criteria was validated on the Folktables American Community Survey (ACS) datasets.

Keywords: model selection, domain generalization, model fairness, randomness measurements, bias index

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Authors: Syed Islam, Yiyun Huang, Sebastian Magierowski, Ebrahim Ghafar-Zadeh

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This paper presents system level CMOS solid-state nanopore techniques enhancement for speedup next generation molecular recording and high throughput channels. This discussion also considers optimum number of base-pair (bp) measurements through channel as an important role to enhance potential read accuracy. Effective power consumption estimation offered suitable rangeof multi-channel configuration. Nanopore bp extraction model in statistical method could contribute higher read accuracy with longer read-length (200 < read-length). Nanopore ionic current switching with Time Multiplexing (TM) based multichannel readout system contributed hardware savings.

Keywords: DNA, nanopore, amplifier, ADC, multichannel

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Authors: Majid Habib Khan, Jinwei Zhao, Xinhong Hei, Liu Jiedong, Rana Shahzad Noor, Muhammad Imran

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Deep learning is increasingly employed in image classification, yet the scarcity and high cost of labeled data for training remain a challenge. Limited samples often lead to overfitting due to biased sample distribution. This paper introduces a dynamic distribution calibration method for few-shot learning. Initially, base and new class samples undergo normalization to mitigate disparate feature magnitudes. A pre-trained model then extracts feature vectors from both classes. The method dynamically selects distribution characteristics from base classes (both adjacent and remote) in the embedding space, using a threshold value approach for new class samples. Given the propensity of similar classes to share feature distributions like mean and variance, this research assumes a Gaussian distribution for feature vectors. Subsequently, distributional features of new class samples are calibrated using a corrected hyperparameter, derived from the distribution features of both adjacent and distant base classes. This calibration augments the new class sample set. The technique demonstrates significant improvements, with up to 4% accuracy gains in few-shot classification challenges, as evidenced by tests on miniImagenet and CUB datasets.

Keywords: deep learning, computer vision, image classification, few-shot learning, threshold

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Authors: Norazlin Mohamad, Saiful Adli Bukry, Zarina Zahari, Haidzir Manaf, Hanafi Sawalludin

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Background: Deficit in neuromuscular recruitment and decrease force distribution were the common problems among ankle instability patients due to altered joint kinematics that lead to recurrent ankle injuries. Rigid Tape and KT Tape had widely been used as therapeutic and performance enhancement tools in ankle stability. However the difference effect between this two tapes is still controversial. Objective: To investigate the different effect between Rigid Tape and KT Tape on force distribution and muscle activation among ankle instability patients while standing. Study design: Crossover trial. Participants: 27 patients, age between 18 to 30 years old participated in this study. All the subjects were applied with KT Tape & Rigid Tape on their affected ankle with 3 days of interval for each intervention. The subjects were tested with their barefoot (without tape) first to act as a baseline before proceeding with KT Tape, and then with Rigid Tape. Result: There were no significant difference on force distribution at forefoot and back-foot for both tapes while standing. However the mean data shows that Rigid Tape has the highest force distribution at back-foot rather than forefoot when compared with KT Tape that had more force distribution at forefoot while standing. Regarding muscle activation (Peroneus Longus), results showed significant difference between Rigid Tape and KT Tape (p= 0.048). However, there was no significant difference on Tibialis Anterior muscle activation between both tapes while standing. Conclusion: The results indicated that Peroneus longus muscle was more active when applied Rigid Tape rather than KT Tape in ankle instability patients while standing.

Keywords: ankle instability, kinematic, muscle activation, force distribution, Rigid Tape, KT tape

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Authors: Tomoaki Hashimoto

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In recent decades, probabilistic constrained optimal control problems have attracted much attention in many research field. Although probabilistic constraints are generally intractable in an optimization problem, several tractable methods haven been proposed to handle probabilistic constraints. In most methods, probabilistic constraints are reduced to deterministic constraints that are tractable in an optimization problem. However, there is a gap between the transformed deterministic constraints in case of known and unknown probability distribution. This paper examines the conservativeness of probabilistic constrained optimization method with the unknown probability distribution. The objective of this paper is to provide a quantitative assessment of the conservatism for tractable constraints in probabilistic constrained optimization with the unknown probability distribution.

Keywords: optimal control, stochastic systems, discrete time systems, probabilistic constraints

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Authors: Abdel Hadi Ebraheim

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This paper introduces a new extension of the Inverse Pareto distribution in the framework of Marshal-Olkin (1997) family of distributions. This model is capable of modeling various shapes of aging and failure data. The statistical properties of the new model are discussed. Several methods are used to estimate the parameters involved. Explicit expressions are derived for different types of moments of value in reliability analysis are obtained. Besides, the order statistics of samples from the new proposed model have been studied. Finally, the usefulness of the new model for modeling reliability data is illustrated using two real data sets with simulation study.

Keywords: pareto distribution, marshal-Olkin, reliability, hazard functions, moments, estimation

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Authors: M. A. Alhubail, A. I. Alateyah, D. Alenezi, B. Aldousiri

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In this study conformal cooling channel (CCC) was employed to dissipate heat of, Polypropylene (PP) parts injected into the Stereolithography (SLA) insert to form tensile and flexural test specimens. The direct metal laser sintering (DMLS) process was used to fabricate a mould with optimised CCC, while optimum parameters of injection moulding were obtained using Optimal-D. The obtained results show that optimisation of the cooling channel layout using a DMLS mould has significantly shortened cycle time without sacrificing the part’s mechanical properties. By applying conformal cooling channels, the cooling time phase was reduced by 20 seconds, and also defected parts were eliminated.

Keywords: optimum parameters, injection moulding, conformal cooling channels, cycle time

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Authors: Longqing Li

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The paper addresses the inefficiency of the classical model in measuring the Value-at-Risk (VaR) using a normal distribution or a Student’s t distribution. Specifically, the paper focuses on the one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) of major stock market’s daily returns in US, UK, China and Hong Kong in the most recent ten years under 95% confidence level. To improve the predictable power and search for the best performing model, the paper proposes using two leading alternatives, Extreme Value Theory (EVT) and a family of GARCH models, and compares the relative performance. The main contribution could be summarized in two aspects. First, the paper extends the GARCH family model by incorporating EGARCH and TGARCH to shed light on the difference between each in estimating one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR). Second, to account for the non-normality in the distribution of financial markets, the paper applies Generalized Error Distribution (GED), instead of the normal distribution, to govern the innovation term. A dynamic back-testing procedure is employed to assess the performance of each model, a family of GARCH and the conditional EVT. The conclusion is that Exponential GARCH yields the best estimate in out-of-sample one day ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasting. Moreover, the discrepancy of performance between the GARCH and the conditional EVT is indistinguishable.

Keywords: Value-at-Risk, Extreme Value Theory, conditional EVT, backtesting

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Authors: Delara Soltani, Sajad Alimohammadi, Tim Persoons

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Microfluidic technology reveals a new area of research in drug delivery, biomedical diagnostics, and the food and chemical industries. Mixing is an essential part of microfluidic devices. There is a need for fast and homogeneous mixing in microfluidic devices. On the other hand, mixing is difficult to achieve in microfluidic devices because of the size and laminar flow in these devices. In this study, a hybrid passive micromixer of a curved channel with obstacles inside the channel is designed. The computational fluid dynamic method is employed to solve governing equations. The results show that using obstacles can improve mixing efficiency in spiral micromixers. the effects of Reynolds number, number, and position of baffles are investigated. In addition, the effect of baffles on pressure drop is presented. this novel micromixer has the potential to utilize in microfluidic devices.

Keywords: CFD, micromixer, microfluidics, spiral, reynolds number

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Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

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This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

Procedia PDF Downloads 331