Search results for: cox proportional hazard regression

Authors: Muluwerk Ayele Derebe

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Background: Antenatal care (ANC) is an essential element in the continuum of reproductive health care for preventing preventable pregnancy-related morbidity and mortality. Objective: The aim of this study is to assess the spatial pattern and predictors of ANC visits in Ethiopia. Method: This study was done using Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data of 2016 among 7,174 pregnant women aged 15-49 years which was a nationwide community-based cross-sectional survey. Spatial analysis was done using Getis-Ord Gi* statistics to identify hot and cold spot areas of ANC visits. Multilevel glmmTMB packages adjusted for spatial effects were used in R software. Spatial multilevel count regression was conducted to identify predictors of antenatal care visits for pregnant women, and proportional change in variance was done to uncover the effect of individual and community-level factors of ANC visits. Results: The distribution of ANC visits was spatially clustered Moran’s I = 0.271, p<.0.001, ICC = 0.497, p<0.001). The highest spatial outlier areas of ANC visit was found in Amhara (South Wollo, Weast Gojjam, North Shewa), Oromo (west Arsi and East Harariga), Tigray (Central Tigray) and Benishangul-Gumuz (Asosa and Metekel) regions. The data was found with excess zeros (34.6%) and over-dispersed. The expected ANC visit of pregnant women with pregnancy complications was higher at 0.7868 [ARR= 2.1964, 95% CI: 1.8605, 2.5928, p-value <0.0001] compared to pregnant women who had no pregnancy complications. The expected ANC visit of a pregnant woman who lived in a rural area was 1.2254 times higher [ARR=3.4057, 95% CI: 2.1462, 5.4041, p-value <0.0001] as compared to a pregnant woman who lived in an urban. The study found dissimilar clusters with a low number of zero counts for a mean number of ANC visits surrounded by clusters with a higher number of counts of an average number of ANC visits when other variables held constant. Conclusion: This study found that the number of ANC visits in Ethiopia had a spatial pattern associated with socioeconomic, demographic, and geographic risk factors. Spatial clustering of ANC visits exists in all regions of Ethiopia. The predictor age of the mother, religion, mother’s education, husband’s education, mother's occupation, husband's occupation, signs of pregnancy complication, wealth index and marital status had a strong association with the number of ANC visits by each individual. At the community level, place of residence, region, age of the mother, sex of the household head, signs of pregnancy complications and distance to health facility factors had a strong association with the number of ANC visits.

Keywords: Ethiopia, ANC, spatial, multilevel, zero inflated Poisson

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Authors: Omer Altaf, Liam Wotherspoon, Rolando Orense

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The Wairau Plains are located in the north-east of the South Island of New Zealand in the region of Marlborough. The region is cut by many active crustal faults such as the Wairau, Awatere, and Clarence faults, which give rise to frequent seismic events. This paper presents the preliminary results of the overall project in which liquefaction-induced ground damage maps are developed in the Wairau Plains based on the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment NZ guidance. A suite of maps has been developed in relation to the level of details that was available to inform the liquefaction hazard mapping. Maps at the coarsest level of detail make use of regional geologic information, applying semi-quantitative criteria based on geological age, design peak ground accelerations and depth to the water table. The next level of detail incorporates higher resolution surface geomorphologic characteristics to better delineate potentially liquefiable and non-liquefiable deposits across the region. The most detailed assessment utilised CPT sounding data to develop ground damage response curves for areas across the region and provide a finer level of categorisation of liquefaction vulnerability. Linking these with design level earthquakes defined through NZGS guidelines will enable detailed classification to be carried out at CPT investigation locations, from very low through to high liquefaction vulnerability. To update classifications to these detailed levels, CPT investigations in geomorphic regions are grouped together to provide an indication of the representative performance of the soils in these areas making use of the geomorphic mapping outlined above.

Keywords: hazard, liquefaction, mapping, seismicity

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Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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In the Bayesian, we developed an approach by using non-informative prior with covariate and obtained by using Gauss quadrature method to estimate the parameters of the covariate and reliability function of the Weibull regression distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood seen that the estimators obtained are not available in closed forms, although they can be solved it by using Newton-Raphson methods. The comparison criteria are the MSE and the performance of these estimates are assessed using simulation considering various sample size, several specific values of shape parameter. The results show that Bayesian with non-informative prior is better than Maximum Likelihood Estimator.

Keywords: non-informative prior, Bayesian method, type-I censoring, Gauss quardature

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Authors: Niyati Sharma, Om Anand, Sanjeev Kumar Prasad

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Assuming future sale value for any of the organizations is one of the major essential characteristics of tactical development. Walmart Sales Forecasting is the finest illustration to work with as a beginner; subsequently, it has the major retail data set. Walmart uses this sales estimate problem for hiring purposes also. We would like to analyzing how the internal and external effects of one of the largest companies in the US can walk out their Weekly Sales in the future. Demand forecasting is the planned prerequisite of products or services in the imminent on the basis of present and previous data and different stages of the market. Since all associations is facing the anonymous future and we do not distinguish in the future good demand. Hence, through exploring former statistics and recent market statistics, we envisage the forthcoming claim and building of individual goods, which are extra challenging in the near future. As a result of this, we are producing the required products in pursuance of the petition of the souk in advance. We will be using several machine learning models to test the exactness and then lastly, train the whole data by Using linear regression and fitting the training data into it. Accuracy is 8.88%. The extra trees regression model gives the best accuracy of 97.15%.

Keywords: random forest algorithm, linear regression algorithm, extra trees classifier, mean absolute error

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Authors: G. Pelozo, N. Quaranta

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The assessment of environmental hazard and ecotoxicological potential of industrial wastes has become an issue of concern in many countries. Therefore, the aim of this work is to develop a methodology, adapting an Argentinian standard, which allows analyze the ecotoxicological effect of various metallurgical and steel wastes. Foundry sand, white mud, red mud, electric arc furnace dust, converter slag, among others, are the studied wastes. The species used to analyze the ecotoxicological effects of wastes is rye grass (Lolium Perenne). The choice of this kind lies, among other things, in its easy and rapid germination making it possible to develop the test in a few days. Moreover, since the processes involved are general for most seeds, the obtained results with this kind are representative, in general, of the effects on seeds or seedlings. Since the studied residues are solids, prior to performing the assay, an eluate is obtained by stirring for 2 hours and subsequent filtration of a solution of waste in water in a relationship of 1:4. This represents 100% of eluate from which two dilutions in water (25% and 50%) are prepared. A sample with untreated solid waste and water is also performed. The test is performed by placing two filter papers in a Petri dish that are saturated with 3.5ml of the prepared dilutions. After that 20 rye grass seeds are placed, and the Petri dishes are covered and the seeds are incubated for 120 hours at 24 °C. Reference controls are carried out by distilled water. Three replicates are performed for each concentration. Once the exposure period is finished, inhibiting elongation of the root is measured (IR). The results of this test show that all the studied wastes produce an unfavorable effect on the development of the seedlings, being the electric arc furnace dust which more affects the germination.

Keywords: ecotoxicity, industrial wastes, environmental hazard, seeds

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Authors: Rafael Zhindon Almeida

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Surface water quality is an important concern for the evaluation and prediction of water quality conditions. The objective of this study is to develop a statistical model that can accurately predict the water quality of the El Macho estuary in the city of Machala, El Oro province. The methodology employed in this study is of a basic type that involves a thorough search for theoretical foundations to improve the understanding of statistical modeling for water quality analysis. The research design is correlational, using a multivariate statistical model involving multiple linear regression and principal component analysis. The results indicate that water quality parameters such as fecal coliforms, biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand, iron and dissolved oxygen exceed the allowable limits. The water of the El Macho estuary is determined to be below the required water quality criteria. The multiple linear regression model, based on chemical oxygen demand and total dissolved solids, explains 99.9% of the variance of the dependent variable. In addition, principal component analysis shows that the model has an explanatory power of 86.242%. The study successfully developed a statistical model to evaluate the water quality of the El Macho estuary. The estuary did not meet the water quality criteria, with several parameters exceeding the allowable limits. The multiple linear regression model and principal component analysis provide valuable information on the relationship between the various water quality parameters. The findings of the study emphasize the need for immediate action to improve the water quality of the El Macho estuary to ensure the preservation and protection of this valuable natural resource.

Keywords: statistical modeling, water quality, multiple linear regression, principal components, statistical models

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Authors: George Eduful, Ebenezer A. Jackson, Kingsford A. Atanga

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This paper investigates the impacts of cable length and capacity of transformer on ferroresonant overvoltage in cable-fed transformers. The study was conducted by simulation using the EMTP RV. Results show that ferroresonance can cause dangerous overvoltages ranging from 2 to 5 per unit. These overvoltages impose stress on insulations of transformers and cables and subsequently result in system failures. Undertaking Basic Multiple Regression Analysis (BMR) on the results obtained, a statistical model was obtained in terms of cable length and transformer capacity. The model is useful for ferroresonant prediction and control in cable-fed transformers.

Keywords: ferroresonance, cable-fed transformers, EMTP RV, regression analysis

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Authors: Pratima Pokharel

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When sewer overflow due to rainfall in urban areas, this leads to public health risks when an individual is exposed to that contaminated floodwater. Nevertheless, it is still unclear the extent to which the infections pose a risk to public health. This study analyzed reported diarrheal cases by month and age in Bangkok, Thailand. The results showed that the cases are reported higher in the wet season than in the dry season. It was also found that in Bangkok, the probability of infection with diarrheal diseases in the wet season is higher for the age group between 15 to 44. However, the probability of infection is highest for kids under 5 years, but they are not influenced by wet weather. Further, this study introduced a vulnerability that leads to health risks from urban flooding. This study has found some vulnerability variables that contribute to health risks from flooding. Thus, for vulnerability analysis, the study has chosen two variables, economic status, and age, that contribute to health risk. Assuming that the people's economic status depends on the types of houses they are living in, the study shows the spatial distribution of economic status in the vulnerability maps. The vulnerability map result shows that people living in Sukhumvit have low vulnerability to health risks with respect to the types of houses they are living in. In addition, from age the probability of infection of diarrhea was analyzed. Moreover, a field survey was carried out to validate the vulnerability of people. It showed that health vulnerability depends on economic status, income level, and education. The result depicts that people with low income and poor living conditions are more vulnerable to health risks. Further, the study also carried out 1D Hydrodynamic Advection-Dispersion modelling with 2-year rainfall events to simulate the dispersion of fecal coliform concentration in the drainage network as well as 1D/2D Hydrodynamic model to simulate the overland flow. The 1D result represents higher concentrations for dry weather flows and a large dilution of concentration on the commencement of a rainfall event, resulting in a drop of the concentration due to runoff generated after rainfall, whereas the model produced flood depth, flood duration, and fecal coliform concentration maps, which were transferred to ArcGIS to produce hazard and risk maps. In addition, the study also simulates the 5-year and 10-year rainfall simulations to show the variation in health hazards and risks. It was found that even though the hazard coverage is very high with a 10-year rainfall events among three rainfall events, the risk was observed to be the same with a 5-year and 10-year rainfall events.

Keywords: urban flooding, risk, hazard, vulnerability, health risk, framework

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Authors: Matthew T. McCarthy, Sarah Janse, Natalie M. Pizzimenti, Anthony K. Savino, Brian Crosser, Sean C. Rose

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Concussion is diagnosed clinically using a comprehensive history and exam, supported by ancillary testing. Frequently, symptom checklists are used as part of the evaluation of concussion. Existing symptom scales are based on a subjective Likert scale, without relation of symptoms to clinical or functional impairment. This is a retrospective review of 133 patients under age 30 seen in an outpatient neurology practice within 30 days of a probable or definite concussion. Each patient completed 2 symptom checklists at the initial visit – the SCAT-3 symptom evaluation (22 symptoms, 0-6 scale) and a scale based on the degree of clinical impairment for each symptom (22 symptoms, 0-3 scale related to functional impact of the symptom). Final clearance date was determined by the treating physician. 60.9% of patients were male with mean age 15.7 years (SD 2.3). Mean time from concussion to first visit was 6.9 days (SD 6.2), and 101 patients had definite concussions (75.9%), while 32 were diagnosed as probable (24.1%). 94 patients had a known clearance date (70.7%) with mean clearance time of 20.6 days (SD 18.6) and median clearance time of 19 days (95% CI 16-21). Mean total symptom score was 27.2 (SD 22.9) on the SCAT-3 and 14.7 (SD 11.9) for the functional impairment scale. Pearson’s correlation between the two scales was 0.98 (p < 0.001). After adjusting for patient and injury characteristics, an equivalent increase in score on each scale was associated with longer time to clearance (SCAT-3 hazard ratio 0.885, 95%CI 0.835-0.938, p < 0.001; functional impairment scale hazard ratio 0.851, 95%CI 0.802-0.902, p < 0.001). A concussion symptom scale based on degree of functional impairment correlates strongly with the SCAT-3 scale and demonstrates a similar association with time to clearance. By assessing the degree of impact on clinical functioning, this symptom scale reflects a more intuitive approach to rating symptoms and can be used in the management of concussion.

Keywords: checklist, concussion, neurology, scale, sports, symptoms

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Authors: Amit Kumar Verma

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The present study deals with fire prediction model in Terai Arc Landscape, one of the most dramatic ecosystems in Asia where large, wide-ranging species such as tiger, rhinos, and elephant will thrive while bringing economic benefits to the local people. Forest fires cause huge economic and ecological losses and release considerable quantities of carbon into the air and is an important factor inflating the global burden of carbon emissions. Forest fire is an important factor of behavioral cum ecological habit of tiger in wild. Post fire changes i.e. micro and macro habitat directly affect the tiger habitat or land. Vulnerability of fire depicts the changes in microhabitat (humus, soil profile, litter, vegetation, grassland ecosystem). Microorganism like spider, annelids, arthropods and other favorable microorganism directly affect by the forest fire and indirectly these entire microorganisms are responsible for the development of tiger (Panthera tigris) habitat. On the other hand, fire brings depletion in prey species and negative movement of tiger from wild to human- dominated areas, which may leads the conflict i.e. dangerous for both tiger & human beings. Early forest fire prediction through mapping the risk zones can help minimize the fire frequency and manage forest fires thereby minimizing losses. Satellite data plays a vital role in identifying and mapping forest fire and recording the frequency with which different vegetation types are affected. Thematic hazard maps have been generated by using IDW technique. A prediction model for fire occurrence is developed for TAL. The fire occurrence records were collected from state forest department from 2000 to 2014. Disciminant function models was used for developing a prediction model for forest fires in TAL, random points for non-occurrence of fire have been generated. Based on the attributes of points of occurrence and non-occurrence, the model developed predicts the fire occurrence. The map of predicted probabilities classified the study area into five classes very high (12.94%), high (23.63%), moderate (25.87%), low(27.46%) and no fire (10.1%) based upon the intensity of hazard. model is able to classify 78.73 percent of points correctly and hence can be used for the purpose with confidence. Overall, also the model works correctly with almost 69% of points. This study exemplifies the usefulness of prediction model of forest fire and offers a more effective way for management of forest fire. Overall, this study depicts the model for conservation of tiger’s natural habitat and forest conservation which is beneficial for the wild and human beings for future prospective.

Keywords: fire prediction model, forest fire hazard, GIS, landsat, MODIS, TAL

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Authors: Christian Neunzig, Simon Fahle, Jürgen Schulz, Matthias Möller, Bernd Kuhlenkötter

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Digitalisation in production technology is a driver for the application of machine learning methods. Through the application of predictive quality, the great potential for saving necessary quality control can be exploited through the data-based prediction of product quality and states. However, the serial use of machine learning applications is often prevented by various problems. Fluctuations occur in real production data sets, which are reflected in trends and systematic shifts over time. To counteract these problems, data preprocessing includes rule-based data cleaning, the application of dimensionality reduction techniques, and the identification of comparable data subsets to extract stable features. Successful process control of the target variables aims to centre the measured values around a mean and minimise variance. Competitive leaders claim to have mastered their processes. As a result, much of the real data has a relatively low variance. For the training of prediction models, the highest possible generalisability is required, which is at least made more difficult by this data availability. The implementation of a machine learning application can be interpreted as a production process. The CRoss Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) is a process model with six phases that describes the life cycle of data science. As in any process, the costs to eliminate errors increase significantly with each advancing process phase. For the quality prediction of hydraulic test steps of directional control valves, the question arises in the initial phase whether a regression or a classification is more suitable. In the context of this work, the initial phase of the CRISP-DM, the business understanding, is critically compared for the use case at Bosch Rexroth with regard to regression and classification. The use of cross-process production data along the value chain of hydraulic valves is a promising approach to predict the quality characteristics of workpieces. Suitable methods for leakage volume flow regression and classification for inspection decision are applied. Impressively, classification is clearly superior to regression and achieves promising accuracies.

Keywords: classification, CRISP-DM, machine learning, predictive quality, regression

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Authors: Ghada Abo-Zaid

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Introduction: Oil is one of the most income source in Bahrain. Low oil price influence on the economy growth and the investment rate in Bahrain. For example, the economic growth was 3.7% in 2012, and it reduced to 2.9% in 2015. Investment rate was 9.8% in 2012, and it is reduced to be 5.9% and -12.1% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The inflation rate is increased to the peak point in 2013 with 3.3 %. Objectives: The objectives here are to build statistical models to examine the effect of the interest rate inflation rate on the growth economy in Bahrain from 2000 to 2018. Methods: This study based on 18 years, and the multiple regression model is used for the analysis. All of the missing data are omitted from the analysis. Results: Regression model is used to examine the association between the Growth national product (GNP), the inflation rate, and real interest rate. We found that (i) Increase the real interest rate decrease the GNP. (ii) Increase the inflation rate does not effect on the growth economy in Bahrain since the average of the inflation rate was almost 2%, and this is considered as a low percentage. Conclusion: There is a positive impact of the real interest rate on the GNP in Bahrain. While the inflation rate does not show any negative influence on the GNP as the inflation rate was not large enough to effect negatively on the economy growth rate in Bahrain.

Keywords: growth national product, egypt, regression model, interest rate

Procedia PDF Downloads 166

Authors: Kang-Mo Jung

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Least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) is a penalized regression which considers both fitting and generalization ability of a model. However, the squared loss function is very sensitive to even single outlier. We proposed a weighted absolute deviation loss function for the robustness of the estimates in least absolute deviation support vector machine. The proposed estimates can be obtained by a quadratic programming algorithm. Numerical experiments on simulated datasets show that the proposed algorithm is competitive in view of robustness to outliers.

Keywords: least absolute deviation, quadratic programming, robustness, support vector machine, weight

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Authors: Khashayar Kazemzadeh, Mohammad Hanif Dasoomi

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According to the increasing volume of traffic, lane changing plays a crucial role in traffic flow. Lane changing in traffic depends on several factors including road geometrical design, speed, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, etc. A great deal of research has been carried out regarding these fields. Despite of the other significant factors, the drivers’ behavioral characteristics of lane changing has been emphasized in this paper. This paper has predicted the effective equation based on personal characteristics of lane changing by regression models.

Keywords: effective equation, lane changing, drivers’ behavioral characteristics, regression models

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Authors: Lule Basha, Eralda Gjika

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This study is focused on analyzing climate change in Albania and its potential effects on cereal yields. Initially, monthly temperature and rainfalls in Albania were studied for the period 1960-2021. Climacteric variables are important variables when trying to model cereal yield behavior, especially when significant changes in weather conditions are observed. For this purpose, in the second part of the study, linear and nonlinear models explaining cereal yield are constructed for the same period, 1960-2021. The multiple linear regression analysis and lasso regression method are applied to the data between cereal yield and each independent variable: average temperature, average rainfall, fertilizer consumption, arable land, land under cereal production, and nitrous oxide emissions. In our regression model, heteroscedasticity is not observed, data follow a normal distribution, and there is a low correlation between factors, so we do not have the problem of multicollinearity. Machine-learning methods, such as random forest, are used to predict cereal yield responses to climacteric and other variables. Random Forest showed high accuracy compared to the other statistical models in the prediction of cereal yield. We found that changes in average temperature negatively affect cereal yield. The coefficients of fertilizer consumption, arable land, and land under cereal production are positively affecting production. Our results show that the Random Forest method is an effective and versatile machine-learning method for cereal yield prediction compared to the other two methods.

Keywords: cereal yield, climate change, machine learning, multiple regression model, random forest

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Authors: Nishtha Batra

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This study was conducted to identify the effect of perceived stress on emotional regulation, aggression and psychological well-being. Analysis was conducted using correlational and regression models to examine the relationships between perceived stress (independent variable) and psychological factors containing emotional intelligence, psychological well-being and aggression. Subjects N=100, Male students 50 and Female students 50. The data was collected using Cohen's Perceived Stress Scale, Gross’s Emotional Regulation Questionnaire (ERQ), Ryff’s Psychological Well-being scale and Orispina’s aggression scale. Correlation and regression (SPSS version 22) Emotional regulation and psychological well-being had a significant relationship with Perceived stress.

Keywords: perceived stress, psychological well-being, aggression, emotional regulation, students

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Authors: Sarpong Boateng, Rohit Balasundaram, Akua Afrah Amoah

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Introduction: Racial and Gender disparities have been found to be independently associated with Salivary Gland Cancers (SGCs) survival; however, to our best knowledge, there are no previous studies on the interplay of these social determinants on the prognosis of SGCs. The objective of this study was to examine the joint effect of race and gender on the survival of SGCs. Methods: We analyzed survival outcomes of 13,547 histologically confirmed cases of SGCs using the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database (2004 to 2015). Multivariable Cox regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier curves were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) after controlling for age, tumor characteristics, treatment type and year of diagnosis. Results: 73.5% of the participants were whites, 8.5% were blacks, 10.1% were Hispanics and 58.5% were males. Overall, males had poorer survival than females (HR = 1.16, p=0.003). In the adjusted multivariable model, there were no significant differences in survival by race. However, the interaction of gender and race was statistically significant (p=0.01) in Hispanic males. Thus, compared to White females (reference), Hispanic females had significantly better survival (HR=0.53), whiles Hispanic males had worse survival outcomes (HR=1.82) for SGCs. Conclusions: Our results show significant interactions between race and gender, with racial disparities varying across the different genders for SGCs survival. This study indicates that racial and gender differences are crucial factors to be considered in the prognostic counseling and management of patients with SGCs. Biologic factors, tumor genetic characteristics, chemotherapy, lifestyle, environmental exposures, and socioeconomic and dietary factors are potential yet proven reasons that could account for racial and gender differences in the survival of SGCs.

Keywords: salivary, cancer, survival, disparity, race, gender, SEER

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Authors: Jingjue Bao, Ye Li, Yujie Qi

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The explosive growth of ride-hailing has reshaped residents' travel behavior and plays a crucial role in urban mobility within the built environment. Contributing to the research of the spatial variation of ride-hailing demand and its relationship to the built environment and socioeconomic factors, this study utilizes multi-source data from Haikou, China, to construct a Multi-scale Geographically Weighted Regression model (MGWR), considering spatial scale heterogeneity. The regression results showed that MGWR model was demonstrated superior interpretability and reliability with an improvement of 3.4% on R2 and from 4853 to 4787 on AIC, compared with Geographically Weighted Regression model (GWR). Furthermore, to precisely identify the surrounding environment of sampling point, DeepLabv3+ model is employed to segment street-level images. Features extracted from these images are incorporated as variables in the regression model, further enhancing its rationality and accuracy by 7.78% improvement on R2 compared with the MGWR model only considered region-level variables. By integrating multi-scale geospatial data and utilizing advanced computer vision techniques, this study provides a comprehensive understanding of the spatial dynamics between ride-hailing demand and the urban built environment. The insights gained from this research are expected to contribute significantly to urban transportation planning and policy making, as well as ride-hailing platforms, facilitating the development of more efficient and effective mobility solutions in modern cities.

Keywords: travel behavior, ride-hailing, spatial relationship, built environment, street-level image

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Authors: Iman Fakhrian, Ali Salehi Manzari

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Consistent Profitability is one of the most important priorities in manufacturing companies. One of the fundamental factors for increasing the companies profitability is cost management. Isfahan's mobarakeh steel company is one of the largest producers of the slab product grades in the middle east. Raw material cost constitutes about 70% of the company's expenditures. The costs of the ferro alloys have a remarkable contribution of the raw material costs. This research aims to determine the ferro alloys which have significant effect on the variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades. Used data in this study were collected from standard costing system of isfahan's mobarakeh steel company in 2022. The results of conducting the regression analysis model show that expense items: 03020, 03045, 03125, 03130 and 03150 have dominant role in variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades. In other words, the mentioned ferro alloys have noticeable and significant role in variability of the standard cost of the slab product grades.

Keywords: consistent profitability, ferro alloys, slab product grades, regression analysis

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Authors: Salwa M. Almomen, Mona A. Almaghrabi, Saja M. Alhabardi, Adel A. Alrwisan

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Background: Hepatotoxicity is a major reason for medication withdrawal from the markets. Unfortunately, serious adverse hepatic effects can occur after marketing with limited indicators during clinical development. Therefore, finding possible predictors for hepatotoxicity might guide the monitoring program of various stakeholders. Methods: We examined the clinical review documents for drugs approved in the US from 2011 to 2016 to evaluate their hepatic safety profile. Predictors: we assessed whether these medications meet Hy’s Law with hepatotoxicity grade ≥ 3, labeled hepatic adverse effects at approval, or accelerated approval status. Outcome: post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, including product withdrawal or updates to warning, precaution, or adverse effects sections. Statistical analysis: drugs were included in the analysis from the time of approval until the end of 2019 or the first post-marketing regulatory action related to hepatotoxicity, whichever occurred first. The hazard ratio (HR) was estimated using Cox-regression analysis. Results: We included 192 medications in the study. We classified 48 drugs as having grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicities, 43 had accelerated approval status, and 74 had labeled information about hepatotoxicity prior to marketing. The adjusted HRs for post-marketing regulatory action for products with grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity was 0.61 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.17-2.23), 0.92 (95%CI, 0.29-2.93) for a drug approved via accelerated approval program, and was 0.91 (95%CI, 0.33-2.56) for drugs with labeled hepatotoxicity information at approval time. Conclusion: This study does not provide conclusive evidence on the association between post-marketing regulatory action and grade ≥ 3 hepatotoxicity, accelerated approval status, or availability of labeled information at approval due to sampling size and channeling bias.

Keywords: accelerated approvals, hepatic adverse effects, drug-induced liver injury, hepatotoxicity predictors, post-marketing withdrawal

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Authors: Seyedtaghi Mirmohammadi, Jamshid Yazdani, Syavash Etemadi Nejad

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One of the main indoor air parameters in classrooms is dust pollution and it depends on the particle size and exposure duration. However, there is a lake of data about the exposure level to PM2.5 concentrations in rural area classrooms. The objective of the current study was exposure assessment for PM2.5 for students in the classrooms. One year monitoring was carried out for fifteen schools by time-series sampling to evaluate the indoor air PM2.5 in the rural district of Sari city, Iran. A hygrometer and thermometer were used to measure some psychrometric parameters (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) and Real-Time Dust Monitor, (MicroDust Pro, Casella, UK) was used to monitor particulate matters (PM2.5) concentration. The results show the mean indoor PM2.5 concentration in the studied classrooms was 135µg/m3. The regression model indicated that a positive correlation between indoor PM2.5 concentration and relative humidity, also with distance from city center and classroom size. Meanwhile, the regression model revealed that the indoor PM2.5 concentration, the relative humidity, and dry bulb temperature was significant at 0.05, 0.035, and 0.05 levels, respectively. A statistical predictive model was obtained from multiple regressions modeling for indoor PM2.5 concentration and indoor psychrometric parameters conditions.

Keywords: classrooms, concentration, humidity, particulate matters, regression

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Authors: Kevin Potoczny, Katsuichiro Goda

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The St. Lawrence lowlands extend from Ottawa to Quebec City and are known for large deposits of sensitive Leda clay. Leda clay deposits are responsible for many large landslides, such as the 1993 Lemieux and 2010 St. Jude (4 fatalities) landslides. Due to the large extent and sensitivity of Leda clay, regional hazard analysis for landslides is an important tool in risk management. A 2018 regional study by Farzam et al. on the susceptibility of Leda clay slopes to landslide hazard uses 1 arc second topographical data. A qualitative method known as Hazus is used to estimate susceptibility by checking for various criteria in a location and determine a susceptibility rating on a scale of 0 (no susceptibility) to 10 (very high susceptibility). These criteria are slope angle, geological group, soil wetness, and distance from waterbodies. Given the flat nature of St. Lawrence lowlands, the current assessment fails to capture local slopes, such as the St. Jude site. Additionally, the data did not allow one to analyze failure planes accurately. This study majorly improves the analysis performed by Farzam et al. in two aspects. First, regional assessment with high resolution data allows for identification of local locations that may have been previously identified as low susceptibility. This then provides the opportunity to conduct a more refined analysis on the failure plane of the slope. Slopes derived from 1 arc second data are relatively gentle (0-10 degrees) across the region; however, the 1- and 2-meter resolution 2022 HRDEM provided by NRCAN shows that short, steep slopes are present. At a regional level, 1 arc second data can underestimate the susceptibility of short, steep slopes, which can be dangerous as Leda clay landslides behave retrogressively and travel upwards into flatter terrain. At the location of the St. Jude landslide, slope differences are significant. 1 arc second data shows a maximum slope of 12.80 degrees and a mean slope of 4.72 degrees, while the HRDEM data shows a maximum slope of 56.67 degrees and a mean slope of 10.72 degrees. This equates to a difference of three susceptibility levels when the soil is dry and one susceptibility level when wet. The use of GIS software is used to create a regional susceptibility map across the St. Lawrence lowlands at 1- and 2-meter resolutions. Failure planes are necessary to differentiate between small and large landslides, which have so far been ignored in regional analysis. Leda clay failures can only retrogress as far as their failure planes, so the regional analysis must be able to transition smoothly into a more robust local analysis. It is expected that slopes within the region, once previously assessed at low susceptibility scores, contain local areas of high susceptibility. The goal is to create opportunities for local failure plane analysis to be undertaken, which has not been possible before. Due to the low resolution of previous regional analyses, any slope near a waterbody could be considered hazardous. However, high-resolution regional analysis would allow for more precise determination of hazard sites.

Keywords: hazus, high-resolution DEM, leda clay, regional analysis, susceptibility

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Authors: Min Wei

Abstract:

The traditional prediction methods of the forecast for tourism market are paid more attention to the accuracy of the forecasts, ignoring the results of the feasibility of forecasting and predicting operability, which had made it difficult to predict the results of scientific testing. With the application of Linear Regression Model, this paper attempts to construct a scientific evaluation system for predictive value, both to ensure the accuracy, stability of the predicted value, and to ensure the feasibility of forecasting and predicting the results of operation. The findings show is that a scientific evaluation system can implement the scientific concept of development, the harmonious development of man and nature co-ordinate.

Keywords: linear regression model, tourism market, forecast, tourism economics

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Authors: Charles-Olivier Amédée-Manesme, Benoit Faye, Eric Le Fur

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In this paper, the heterogeneity of the Bordeaux Legends 50 wine market price segment is addressed. For this purpose, quantile regression is applied – with market segmentation based on wine bottle price quantile – and the hedonic price of wine attributes is computed for various price segments of the market. The approach is applied to a major privately held data set which consists of approximately 30,000 transactions over the 2003–2014 period. The findings suggest that the relative hedonic prices of several wine attributes differ significantly among deciles. In particular, the elasticity coefficient of the expert ratings shows strong variation among prices. If - as suggested in the literature - expert ratings have a positive influence on wine price on average, they have a clearly decreasing impact over the quantiles. Finally, the lower the wine price, the higher the potential for price appreciation over time. Other variables such as chateaux or vintage are also shown to vary across the distribution of wine prices. While enhancing our understanding of the complex market dynamics that underlie Bordeaux wines’ price, this research provides empirical evidence that the QR approach adequately captures heterogeneity among wine price ranges, which simultaneously applies to wine stock, vintage and auctions’ house.

Keywords: hedonics, market segmentation, quantile regression, heterogeneity, wine economics

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Authors: Phan Thi Song Thuong

Abstract:

This paper uses data from a survey on the green consumption behavior of Hanoi residents in October 2022. Data was gathered from a survey conducted in ten districts in the center of Hanoi, with 393 respondents. The hypothesis focuses on understanding the factors that may affect green consumption behavior, such as demographic characteristics, concerns about the environment and health, people living around, self-efficiency, and mass media. A number of methods, such as the T-test, exploratory factor analysis, and a linear regression model, are used to prove the hypotheses. Accordingly, the results show that gender, age, and education level have separate effects on the green consumption behavior of respondents.

Keywords: green consumption, urban residents, environment, sustainable, linear regression

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Authors: Hassnen M. Jafer, Khalid S. Hashim, W. Atherton, Ali W. Alattabi

Abstract:

This study investigates the effect of two important parameters (length of curing period and percentage of the added binder) on the strength of soil treated with OPC. An intermediate plasticity silty clayey soil with medium organic content was used in this study. This soft soil was treated with different percentages of a commercially available cement type 32.5-N. laboratory experiments were carried out on the soil treated with 0, 1.5, 3, 6, 9, and 12% OPC by the dry weight to determine the effect of OPC on the compaction parameters, consistency limits, and the compressive strength. Unconfined compressive strength (UCS) test was carried out on cement-treated specimens after exposing them to different curing periods (1, 3, 7, 14, 28, and 90 days). The results of UCS test were used to develop a non-linear multi-regression model to find the relationship between the predicted and the measured maximum compressive strength of the treated soil (qu). The results indicated that there was a significant improvement in the index of plasticity (IP) by treating with OPC; IP was decreased from 20.2 to 14.1 by using 12% of OPC; this percentage was enough to increase the UCS of the treated soil up to 1362 kPa after 90 days of curing. With respect to the statistical model of the predicted qu, the results showed that the regression coefficients (R2) was equal to 0.8534 which indicates a good reproducibility for the constructed model.

Keywords: cement admixtures, soft soil stabilisation, geotechnical parameters, multi-regression model

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Authors: Chisomo Patrick Kumbuyo, Katsuyuki Shimizu, Hiroshi Yasuda, Yoshinobu Kitamura

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This study deals with a way of predicting Malawi rainfall from global sea surface temperature (SST) using a simple multiple regression model. Monthly rainfall data from nine stations in Malawi grouped into two zones on the basis of inter-station rainfall correlations were used in the study. Zone 1 consisted of Karonga and Nkhatabay stations, located in northern Malawi; and Zone 2 consisted of Bolero, located in northern Malawi; Kasungu, Dedza, Salima, located in central Malawi; Mangochi, Makoka and Ngabu stations located in southern Malawi. Links between Malawi rainfall and SST based on statistical correlations were evaluated and significant results selected as predictors for the regression models. The predictors for Zone 1 model were identified from the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans while those for Zone 2 were identified from the Pacific Ocean. The correlation between the fit of predicted and observed rainfall values of the models were satisfactory with r=0.81 and 0.54 for Zone 1 and 2 respectively (significant at less than 99.99%). The results of the models are in agreement with other findings that suggest that SST anomalies in the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans have an influence on the rainfall patterns of Southern Africa.

Keywords: Malawi rainfall, forecast model, predictors, SST

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Authors: Martin Popescu D. Dana Maria

Abstract:

The aims of this research are to broaden the study on the relationship between emotional intelligence and counterproductive work behavior (CWB). The study sample consisted in 441 Romanian employees from companies all over the country. Data has been collected through web surveys and processed with SPSS. The results indicated an average correlation between the two constructs and their sub variables, employees with a high level of emotional intelligence tend to be less aggressive. In addition, labeling was considered an individual difference which has the power to influence the level of employee aggression. A regression model was used to underline the importance of emotional intelligence together with labeling as predictors of CWB. Results have shown that this regression model enforces the assumption that labeling and emotional intelligence, taken together, predict CWB. Employees, who label themselves as victims and have a low degree of emotional intelligence, have a higher level of CWB.

Keywords: aggression, CWB, emotional intelligence, labeling

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

Abstract:

Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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