Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1358

Search results for: non-informative prior

1358 Automatic Method for Classification of Informative and Noninformative Images in Colonoscopy Video

Authors: Nidhal K. Azawi, John M. Gauch

Abstract:

Colorectal cancer is one of the leading causes of cancer death in the US and the world, which is why millions of colonoscopy examinations are performed annually. Unfortunately, noise, specular highlights, and motion artifacts corrupt many images in a typical colonoscopy exam. The goal of our research is to produce automated techniques to detect and correct or remove these noninformative images from colonoscopy videos, so physicians can focus their attention on informative images. In this research, we first automatically extract features from images. Then we use machine learning and deep neural network to classify colonoscopy images as either informative or noninformative. Our results show that we achieve image classification accuracy between 92-98%. We also show how the removal of noninformative images together with image alignment can aid in the creation of image panoramas and other visualizations of colonoscopy images.

Keywords: colonoscopy classification, feature extraction, image alignment, machine learning

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1357 Adaptive Motion Compensated Spatial Temporal Filter of Colonoscopy Video

Authors: Nidhal Azawi

Abstract:

Colonoscopy procedure is widely used in the world to detect an abnormality. Early diagnosis can help to heal many patients. Because of the unavoidable artifacts that exist in colon images, doctors cannot detect a colon surface precisely. The purpose of this work is to improve the visual quality of colonoscopy videos to provide better information for physicians by removing some artifacts. This work complements a series of work consisting of three previously published papers. In this paper, Optic flow is used for motion compensation, and then consecutive images are aligned/registered to integrate some information to create a new image that has or reveals more information than the original one. Colon images have been classified into informative and noninformative images by using a deep neural network. Then, two different strategies were used to treat informative and noninformative images. Informative images were treated by using Lucas Kanade (LK) with an adaptive temporal mean/median filter, whereas noninformative images are treated by using Lucas Kanade with a derivative of Gaussian (LKDOG) with adaptive temporal median images. A comparison result showed that this work achieved better results than that results in the state- of- the- art strategies for the same degraded colon images data set, which consists of 1000 images. The new proposed algorithm reduced the error alignment by about a factor of 0.3 with a 100% successfully image alignment ratio. In conclusion, this algorithm achieved better results than the state-of-the-art approaches in case of enhancing the informative images as shown in the results section; also, it succeeded to convert the non-informative images that have very few details/no details because of the blurriness/out of focus or because of the specular highlight dominate significant amount of an image to informative images.

Keywords: optic flow, colonoscopy, artifacts, spatial temporal filter

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1356 The Impact of Prior Cancer History on the Prognosis of Salivary Gland Cancer Patients: A Population-based Study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Database

Authors: Junhong Li, Danni Cheng, Yaxin Luo, Xiaowei Yi, Ke Qiu, Wendu Pang, Minzi Mao, Yufang Rao, Yao Song, Jianjun Ren, Yu Zhao

Abstract:

Background: The number of multiple cancer patients was increasing, and the impact of prior cancer history on salivary gland cancer patients remains unclear. Methods: Clinical, demographic and pathological information on salivary gland cancer patients were retrospectively collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2017, and the characteristics and prognosis between patients with a prior cancer and those without prior caner were compared. Univariate and multivariate cox proportional regression models were used for the analysis of prognosis. A risk score model was established to exam the impact of treatment on patients with a prior cancer in different risk groups. Results: A total of 9098 salivary gland cancer patients were identified, and 1635 of them had a prior cancer history. Salivary gland cancer patients with prior cancer had worse survival compared with those without a prior cancer (p<0.001). Patients with a different type of first cancer had a distinct prognosis (p<0.001), and longer latent time was associated with better survival (p=0.006) in the univariate model, although both became nonsignificant in the multivariate model. Salivary gland cancer patients with a prior cancer were divided into low-risk (n= 321), intermediate-risk (n=223), and high-risk (n=62) groups and the results showed that patients at high risk could benefit from surgery, radiation therapy, and chemotherapy, and those at intermediate risk could benefit from surgery. Conclusion: Prior cancer history had an adverse impact on the survival of salivary gland cancer patients, and individualized treatment should be seriously considered for them.

Keywords: prior cancer history, prognosis, salivary gland cancer, SEER

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1355 Bayesian Reliability of Weibull Regression with Type-I Censored Data

Authors: Al Omari Moahmmed Ahmed

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In the Bayesian, we developed an approach by using non-informative prior with covariate and obtained by using Gauss quadrature method to estimate the parameters of the covariate and reliability function of the Weibull regression distribution with Type-I censored data. The maximum likelihood seen that the estimators obtained are not available in closed forms, although they can be solved it by using Newton-Raphson methods. The comparison criteria are the MSE and the performance of these estimates are assessed using simulation considering various sample size, several specific values of shape parameter. The results show that Bayesian with non-informative prior is better than Maximum Likelihood Estimator.

Keywords: non-informative prior, Bayesian method, type-I censoring, Gauss quardature

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1354 Perceived and Projected Images of Algeria: A Comparison Study

Authors: Nour-Elhouda Lecheheb

Abstract:

Destination image is one of the main factors that influence potential visitors' decision choice. This study aims to explore the pre-visit perception of prior British tourists and compare them to the actual projected images of the Algerian tourism suppliers. Semi-structured interviews are conducted with both prior British tourists to Algeria and the Algerian tourism suppliers in 2019. The findings of this study suggest how the Algerian tourism suppliers might benefit from understanding the perceived image of prior tourists to match tourists' expectations and better plan their projected images.

Keywords: Algeria, destination choice, destination image, perceived image, projected image

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1353 Moderating Role of Fast Food Restaurants Employees Prior Job Experience on the Relationship between Customer Satisfaction and Loyalty

Authors: Mohammed Bala Banki

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This paper examines the relationship between employee satisfaction, customer satisfaction and loyalty in fast food restaurants in Nigeria and ascertains if prior job experience of employees before their present job moderate the relationship between customer satisfaction and loyalty. Data for this study were collected from matched pairs of employees and customers of fast restaurants in four Nigerian cities. A Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was used for the analysis to test the proposed relationships and hierarchical multiple regression was performed in SPSS 22 to test moderating effect. Findings suggest that there is a direct positive and significant relationship between employee satisfaction and customer satisfaction and customer satisfaction and loyalty while the path between employee satisfaction and customer loyalty is insignificant. Results also reveal that employee’s prior job experience significantly moderate the relationship between customer satisfaction and loyalty. Further analysis indicates that employees with more years of experience provide more fulfilling services to restaurants customers. This paper provides some theoretical and managerial implications for academia and practitioners.

Keywords: employee’s satisfaction, customer’s satisfaction, loyalty, employee’s prior job experience, fast food industry

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1352 Bayesian Estimation under Different Loss Functions Using Gamma Prior for the Case of Exponential Distribution

Authors: Md. Rashidul Hasan, Atikur Rahman Baizid

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The Bayesian estimation approach is a non-classical estimation technique in statistical inference and is very useful in real world situation. The aim of this paper is to study the Bayes estimators of the parameter of exponential distribution under different loss functions and then compared among them as well as with the classical estimator named maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). In our real life, we always try to minimize the loss and we also want to gather some prior information (distribution) about the problem to solve it accurately. Here the gamma prior is used as the prior distribution of exponential distribution for finding the Bayes estimator. In our study, we also used different symmetric and asymmetric loss functions such as squared error loss function, quadratic loss function, modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function and non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function. Finally, mean square error (MSE) of the estimators are obtained and then presented graphically.

Keywords: Bayes estimator, maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), modified linear exponential (MLINEX) loss function, Squared Error (SE) loss function, non-linear exponential (NLINEX) loss function

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1351 Constrained RGBD SLAM with a Prior Knowledge of the Environment

Authors: Kathia Melbouci, Sylvie Naudet Collette, Vincent Gay-Bellile, Omar Ait-Aider, Michel Dhome

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In this paper, we handle the problem of real time localization and mapping in indoor environment assisted by a partial prior 3D model, using an RGBD sensor. The proposed solution relies on a feature-based RGBD SLAM algorithm to localize the camera and update the 3D map of the scene. To improve the accuracy and the robustness of the localization, we propose to combine in a local bundle adjustment process, geometric information provided by a prior coarse 3D model of the scene (e.g. generated from the 2D floor plan of the building) along with RGBD data from a Kinect camera. The proposed approach is evaluated on a public benchmark dataset as well as on real scene acquired by a Kinect sensor.

Keywords: SLAM, global localization, 3D sensor, bundle adjustment, 3D model

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1350 Bayesian Flexibility Modelling of the Conditional Autoregressive Prior in a Disease Mapping Model

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege, Azeez Adeboye, Akinwumi Odeyemi

Abstract:

The basic model usually used in disease mapping, is the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model and which combines the spatially structured and spatially unstructured priors as random effects. Bayesian Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is a disease mapping method that is commonly used for smoothening the relative risk of any disease as used in the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model. This model (CAR), which is also usually assigned as a prior to one of the spatial random effects in the BYM model, successfully uses information from adjacent sites to improve estimates for individual sites. To our knowledge, there are some unrealistic or counter-intuitive consequences on the posterior covariance matrix of the CAR prior for the spatial random effects. In the conventional BYM (Besag, York and Mollie) model, the spatially structured and the unstructured random components cannot be seen independently, and which challenges the prior definitions for the hyperparameters of the two random effects. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to construct and utilize an extended Bayesian spatial CAR model for studying tuberculosis patterns in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa, and then compare for flexibility with some existing CAR models. The results of the study revealed the flexibility and robustness of this alternative extended CAR to the commonly used CAR models by comparison, using the deviance information criteria. The extended Bayesian spatial CAR model is proved to be a useful and robust tool for disease modeling and as a prior for the structured spatial random effects because of the inclusion of an extra hyperparameter.

Keywords: Besag2, CAR models, disease mapping, INLA, spatial models

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1349 Identifying Psychosocial, Autonomic, and Pain Sensitivity Risk Factors of Chronic Temporomandibular Disorder by Using Ridge Logistic Regression and Bootstrapping

Authors: Haolin Li, Eric Bair, Jane Monaco, Quefeng Li

Abstract:

The temporomandibular disorder (TMD) is a series of musculoskeletal disorders ranging from jaw pain to chronic debilitating pain, and the risk factors for the onset and maintenance of TMD are still unclear. Prior researches have shown that the potential risk factors for chronic TMD are related to psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity. Using data from the Orofacial Pain: Prospective Evaluation and Risk Assessment (OPPERA) study’s baseline case-control study, we examine whether the risk factors identified by prior researches are still statistically significant after taking all of the risk measures into account in one single model, and we also compare the relative influences of the risk factors in three different perspectives (psychosocial factors, autonomic functions, and pain sensitivity) on the chronic TMD. The statistical analysis is conducted by using ridge logistic regression and bootstrapping, in which the performance of the algorithms has been assessed using extensive simulation studies. The results support most of the findings of prior researches that there are many psychosocial and pain sensitivity measures that have significant associations with chronic TMD. However, it is surprising that most of the risk factors of autonomic functions have not presented significant associations with chronic TMD, as described by a prior research.

Keywords: autonomic function, OPPERA study, pain sensitivity, psychosocial measures, temporomandibular disorder

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1348 Effect of Maize Straw-Derived Biochar on Imidacloprid Adsorption onto Soils Prior to No-Tillage and Rotary Tillage Practices

Authors: Jean Yves Uwamungu, Fiston Bizimana, Chunsheng Hu

Abstract:

Although pesticides are used in crop productivity, their use is highly harming the soil environment, and measures must be taken in the future to eradicate soil and groundwater pollution. The primary aim was to determine the effect of biochar addition on the imidacloprid adsorption on soil prior to no-tillage (NT) and rotational tillage (RT) conditions. In the laboratory, batch tests were conducted to determine the imidacloprid adsorption on soil using equilibrium and kinetic modelling with the addition of biochar. The clay level of the soil was found to be more significant when no-tillage was applied (22.42) than when rotational tillage was applied (14.27). The imidacloprid adsorption equilibrium was significantly shortened to 25 min after biochar addition. The isotherms and kinetic findings confirmed that the adsorption occurred according to Freundlich and pseudo-second-order kinetic models, respectively. The adsorption capacity of imidacloprid (40<35<25 °C) increased with decreasing temperature, indicating an exothermic adsorption behaviour, whereas negative Gibbs free energy (G) values of -6980.5 and 5983.93 Jmol-1, respectively, for soil prior to NT and RT at 25 °C, asserted spontaneous adsorption. The negative values of entropy (ΔS); -22.83 and -38.15 Jmol-1K-1, prior to NT and RT applications, respectively, described a lowered randomness process. The enthalpy was greater when RT was applied (-17533 J mol-1) than when NT was applied (-450 J mol-1). Lastly, it was shown that NTtreatment enhanced imidacloprid adsorption capacity more than RT treatment and that biochar addition enhanced pesticide adsorption in both treatments.

Keywords: adsorption, biochar, imidacloprid, soil, tillage

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1347 Comparison of Intraocular Pressure Measurement Prior and Following Full Intracorneal Ring Implantation in Patient with Keratoconus by Three Different Instruments

Authors: Seyed Aliasghar Mosavi, Mostafa Naderi, Khosrow Jadidi, Amir Hashem Mohammadi

Abstract:

To study the measurement of intraocular pressure (IOP) before and after implantation of intrastromal corneal ring (MyoRing) in patients with keratoconus. Setting: Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran. Methods: We compared the IOP of 13 eyes which underwent MyoRing implantation prior and six months post operation using Goldman applanation (as gold standard), Icare, and Corvis ST (uncorrected, corrected and corrected with cornea biomechanics). Results: The resulting intraocular pressure measurements prior to surgery, Icare, Corvis (corrected with cornea biomechanics) overestimated the IOP, however measurements by Corvis uncorrected underestimate the IOP. The resulting intraocular pressure measurements after surgery, Icare, Corvis (corrected with cornea biomechanics) overestimated the IOP but measurements by Corvis uncorrected underestimate the IOP. Conclusion: Consistent intraocular pressure measurements on eyes with Myoring in keratoconus can be obtained with the Goldman applanation tonometer as the gold standard measurement. We were not able to obtain consistent results when we measured the IOP by Icare and Corvis prior and after surgery.

Keywords: intraocular pressure, MyoRing, Keratoconus, Goldmann applanation, Icare, Corvis ST

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1346 Predictors of Behavior Modification Prior to Bariatric Surgery

Authors: Rosemarie Basile, Maria Loizos, John Pallarino, Karen Gibbs

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Given that complications can be significant following bariatric surgery and with rates of long-term success measured in excess weight loss varying as low as 33% after five years, an understanding of the psychological factors that may mitigate findings and increase success and result in better screening and supports prior to surgery are critical. An internally oriented locus of control (LOC) has been identified as a predictor for success in obesity therapy, but has not been investigated within the context of bariatric surgery. It is hypothesized that making behavioral changes prior to surgery which mirror those that are required post-surgery may ultimately predict long-term success. 122 subjects participated in a clinical interview and completed self-report measures including the Multidimensional Health Locus of Control Scale, Overeating Questionnaire (OQ), and Lifestyle Questionnaire (LQ). Pearson correlations were computed between locus of control orientation and likelihood to make behavior changes prior to surgery. Pearson correlations revealed a positive correlation between locus of control and likelihood to make behavior changes r = 0.23, p < .05. As hypothesized, there was a significant correlation between internal locus of control and likelihood to make behavior changes. Participants with a higher LOC believe that they are able to make decisions about their own health. Future research will focus on whether this positive correlation is a predictor for future bariatric surgery success.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, behavior modification, health locus of control, overeating questionnaire

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1345 Evaluation of the Performance of ACTIFLO® Clarifier in the Treatment of Mining Wastewaters: Case Study of Costerfield Mining Operations, Victoria, Australia

Authors: Seyed Mohsen Samaei, Shirley Gato-Trinidad

Abstract:

A pre-treatment stage prior to reverse osmosis (RO) is very important to ensure the long-term performance of the RO membranes in any wastewater treatment using RO. This study aims to evaluate the application of the Actiflo® clarifier as part of a pre-treatment unit in mining operations. It involves performing analytical testing on RO feed water before and after installation of Actiflo® unit. Water samples prior to RO plant stage were obtained on different dates from Costerfield mining operations in Victoria, Australia. Tests were conducted in an independent laboratory to determine the concentration of various compounds in RO feed water before and after installation of Actiflo® unit during the entire evaluated period from December 2015 to June 2018. Water quality analysis shows that the quality of RO feed water has remarkably improved since installation of Actiflo® clarifier. Suspended solids (SS) and turbidity removal efficiencies has been improved by 91 and 85 percent respectively in pre-treatment system since the installation of Actiflo®. The Actiflo® clarifier proved to be a valuable part of pre-treatment system prior to RO. It has the potential to conveniently condition the mining wastewater prior to RO unit, and reduce the risk of RO physical failure and irreversible fouling. Consequently, reliable and durable operation of RO unit with minimum requirement for RO membrane replacement is expected with Actiflo® in use.

Keywords: ACTIFLO ® clarifier, mining wastewater, reverse osmosis, water treatment

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1344 Cutaneous Crohn’s Disease in a Child: Atypical Axillary Involvement

Authors: A. Al Yousef, A. Toulon, L. Petit, S. Fraitag, F. Ruemmele, S. Hadj-Rabia, C. Bodemer

Abstract:

Cutaneous Crohn’s disease (CCD) refers to an extremely rare granulomatous inflammation of the skin that is non-contiguous to the bowel tract. These cutaneous lesions can occur prior to, concurrent with, or after the gastrointestinal manifestations. In adults, CCD most frequently occurs in the setting of well-documented intestinal disease. Only 20% of cases occur prior to its development. Review of CCD in children, reveals that 86% of cases (24 of 28) occurring in patients without a known diagnosis of intestinal Crohn’s disease. Overall, the genitalia was the most commonly involved location, representing 21 of the 28 cases with 16 vulvar and 5 penile/scrotal lesions.

Keywords: Crohn’s disease, cutaneous manifestations, children, atypical axillary involvement

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1343 Internal Audit Function Contributions to the External Audit

Authors: Douglas F. Prawitt, Nathan Y. Sharp, David A. Wood

Abstract:

Consistent with prior experimental and survey studies, we find that IAFs that spend more time directly assisting the external auditor is associated with lower external audit fees. Interestingly, we do not find evidence that external auditors reduce fees based on work previously performed by the IAF. We also find that the time spent assisting the external auditor has a greater negative effect on external audit fees than the time spent performing tasks upon which the auditor may rely but that are not performed as direct assistance to the external audit. Our results also show that previous proxies used to measure this relation is either not associated with or are negatively associated with our direct measures of how the IAF can contribute to the external audit and are highly positively associated with the size and the complexity of the organization. Thus, we conclude the disparate experimental and archival results may be attributable to issues surrounding the construct validity of measures used in previous archival studies and that when measures similar to those used in experimental studies are employed in archival tests, the archival results are consistent with experimental findings. Our research makes four primary contributions to the literature. First, we provide evidence that internal auditing contributes to a reduction in external audit fees. Second, we replicate and provide an explanation for why previous archival studies find that internal auditing has either no association with external audit fees or is associated with an increase in those fees: prior studies generally use proxies of internal audit contribution that do not adequately capture the intended construct. Third, our research expands on survey-based research (e.g., Oil Libya sh.co.) by separately examining the impact on the audit fee of the internal auditors’ work, indirectly assisting external auditors and internal auditors’ prior work upon which external auditors can rely. Finally, we extend prior research by using a new, independent data source to validate and extend prior studies. This data set also allows for a sample of examining the impact of internal auditing on the external audit fee and the use of a more comprehensive external audit fee model that better controls for determinants of the external audit fee.

Keywords: internal audit, contribution, external audit, function

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1342 Stress Corrosion Cracking, Parameters Affecting It, Problems Caused by It and Suggested Methods for Treatment: State of the Art

Authors: Adnan Zaid

Abstract:

Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) may be defined as a degradation of the mechanical properties of a material under the combined action of a tensile stress and corrosive environment of the susceptible material. It is a harmful phenomenon which might cause catastrophic fracture without a sign of prior warning. In this paper, the stress corrosion cracking, SCC, process, the parameters affecting it, and the different damages caused by it are given and discussed. Utilization of shot peening as a mean of enhancing the resistance of materials to SCC is given and discussed. Finally, a method for improving materials resistance to SCC by grain refining its structure by some refining elements prior to usage is suggested.

Keywords: stress corrosion cracking, parameters, damages, treatment methods

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1341 An Examination of Earnings Management by Publicly Listed Targets Ahead of Mergers and Acquisitions

Authors: T. Elrazaz

Abstract:

This paper examines accrual and real earnings management by publicly listed targets around mergers and acquisitions. Prior literature shows that earnings management around mergers and acquisitions can have a significant economic impact because of the associated wealth transfers among stakeholders. More importantly, acting on behalf of their shareholders or pursuing their self-interests, managers of both targets and acquirers may be equally motivated to manipulate earnings prior to an acquisition to generate higher gains for their shareholders or themselves. Building on the grounds of information asymmetry, agency conflicts, stewardship theory, and the revelation principle, this study addresses the question of whether takeover targets employ accrual and real earnings management in the periods prior to the announcement of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A). Additionally, this study examines whether acquirers are able to detect targets’ earnings management, and in response, adjust the acquisition premium paid in order not to face the risk of overpayment. This study uses an aggregate accruals approach in estimating accrual earnings management as proxied by estimated abnormal accruals. Additionally, real earnings management is proxied for by employing widely used models in accounting and finance literature. The results of this study indicate that takeover targets manipulate their earnings using accruals in the second year with an earnings release prior to the announcement of the M&A. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals. These results are consistent with the argument that targets of cash-only or mixed-payment deals do not have the same strong motivations to manage their earnings as their stock-financed deals counterparts do additionally supporting the findings of prior studies that the method of payment in takeovers is value relevant. The findings of this study also indicate that takeover targets manipulate earnings upwards through cutting discretionary expenses the year prior to the acquisition while they do not do so by manipulating sales or production costs. Moreover, in partitioning the sample of targets according to the method of payment used in the deal, the results are restricted only to targets of stock-financed deals, providing further robustness to the results derived under the accrual-based models. Finally, this study finds evidence suggesting that acquirers are fully aware of the accrual-based techniques employed by takeover targets and can unveil such manipulation practices. These results are robust to alternative accrual and real earnings management proxies, as well as controlling for the method of payment in the deal.

Keywords: accrual earnings management, acquisition premium, real earnings management, takeover targets

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1340 A Bayesian Model with Improved Prior in Extreme Value Problems

Authors: Eva L. Sanjuán, Jacinto Martín, M. Isabel Parra, Mario M. Pizarro

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In Extreme Value Theory, inference estimation for the parameters of the distribution is made employing a small part of the observation values. When block maxima values are taken, many data are discarded. We developed a new Bayesian inference model to seize all the information provided by the data, introducing informative priors and using the relations between baseline and limit parameters. Firstly, we studied the accuracy of the new model for three baseline distributions that lead to a Gumbel extreme distribution: Exponential, Normal and Gumbel. Secondly, we considered mixtures of Normal variables, to simulate practical situations when data do not adjust to pure distributions, because of perturbations (noise).

Keywords: bayesian inference, extreme value theory, Gumbel distribution, highly informative prior

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1339 Examining the Influence of Question Phrasing in Police Interviews on Suspects’ Inferences Regarding Interviewer’s Prior Knowledge

Authors: Meghana Srivatsav, Timothy J. Luke, Par Anders Granhag, Aldert Vrij

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The aim of this study was to understand how the phrasing of questions influences guilty suspects’ inferences regarding prior information held by the interviewer about the suspect’s crime-related activities. Three phrasing factors were explored namely specificity (crime-related details within questions), stressor (emphasis on the importance of the information in the question) and phase presentation (whether a specific activity was questioned about). 370 participants were recruited and randomly assigned into 6 different question-phrasing groups. Participants assumed the role of a suspect, read a crime narrative and an interview transcript based on the suspect’s activities. Participants responded to scales that measured their perception of interviewer’s knowledge (PIK) based on the questions posed by the interviewer in the interview transcripts. The researchers found that there is an effect of specific details revealed in the questions on the suspect’s perception of interviewer knowledge. Questioning about a specific activity also increased their perception of interviewer’s prior knowledge. However, the individual hypotheses were only partially supported. The study allowed the researchers to explore a psycholinguistic approach to investigate the underlying mechanisms of inferences drawn by suspects from the phrasing of investigative questions.

Keywords: police interviewing, question framing effects on suspects, suspect inferences from questions, suspect interviews

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1338 Bayesian Borrowing Methods for Count Data: Analysis of Incontinence Episodes in Patients with Overactive Bladder

Authors: Akalu Banbeta, Emmanuel Lesaffre, Reynaldo Martina, Joost Van Rosmalen

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Including data from previous studies (historical data) in the analysis of the current study may reduce the sample size requirement and/or increase the power of analysis. The most common example is incorporating historical control data in the analysis of a current clinical trial. However, this only applies when the historical control dataare similar enough to the current control data. Recently, several Bayesian approaches for incorporating historical data have been proposed, such as the meta-analytic-predictive (MAP) prior and the modified power prior (MPP) both for single control as well as for multiple historical control arms. Here, we examine the performance of the MAP and the MPP approaches for the analysis of (over-dispersed) count data. To this end, we propose a computational method for the MPP approach for the Poisson and the negative binomial models. We conducted an extensive simulation study to assess the performance of Bayesian approaches. Additionally, we illustrate our approaches on an overactive bladder data set. For similar data across the control arms, the MPP approach outperformed the MAP approach with respect to thestatistical power. When the means across the control arms are different, the MPP yielded a slightly inflated type I error (TIE) rate, whereas the MAP did not. In contrast, when the dispersion parameters are different, the MAP gave an inflated TIE rate, whereas the MPP did not.We conclude that the MPP approach is more promising than the MAP approach for incorporating historical count data.

Keywords: count data, meta-analytic prior, negative binomial, poisson

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1337 Bayesian Inference for High Dimensional Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models

Authors: Sofia M. Karadimitriou, Kostas Triantafyllopoulos, Timothy Heaton

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Reduced dimension Dynamic Spatio-Temporal Models (DSTMs) jointly describe the spatial and temporal evolution of a function observed subject to noise. A basic state space model is adopted for the discrete temporal variation, while a continuous autoregressive structure describes the continuous spatial evolution. Application of such a DSTM relies upon the pre-selection of a suitable reduced set of basic functions and this can present a challenge in practice. In this talk, we propose an online estimation method for high dimensional spatio-temporal data based upon DSTM and we attempt to resolve this issue by allowing the basis to adapt to the observed data. Specifically, we present a wavelet decomposition in order to obtain a parsimonious approximation of the spatial continuous process. This parsimony can be achieved by placing a Laplace prior distribution on the wavelet coefficients. The aim of using the Laplace prior, is to filter wavelet coefficients with low contribution, and thus achieve the dimension reduction with significant computation savings. We then propose a Hierarchical Bayesian State Space model, for the estimation of which we offer an appropriate particle filter algorithm. The proposed methodology is illustrated using real environmental data.

Keywords: multidimensional Laplace prior, particle filtering, spatio-temporal modelling, wavelets

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1336 Corporate Governance and Share Prices: Firm Level Review in Turkey

Authors: Raif Parlakkaya, Ahmet Diken, Erkan Kara

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This paper examines the relationship between corporate governance rating and stock prices of 26 Turkish firms listed in Turkish stock exchange (Borsa Istanbul) by using panel data analysis over five-year period. The paper also investigates the stock performance of firms with governance rating with regards to the market portfolio (i.e. BIST 100 Index) both prior and after governance scoring began. The empirical results show that there is no relation between corporate governance rating and stock prices when using panel data for annual variation in both rating score and stock prices. Further analysis indicates surprising results that while the selected firms outperform the market significantly prior to rating, the same performance does not continue afterwards.

Keywords: corporate governance, stock price, performance, panel data analysis

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1335 Grain Growth Behavior of High Carbon Microalloyed Steels Containing Very Low Amounts of Niobium

Authors: Huseyin Zengin, Muhammet Emre Turan, Yunus Turen, Hayrettin Ahlatci, Yavuz Sun

Abstract:

This study aimed for understanding the effects of dilute Nb additions on the austenite microstructure of microalloyed steels at five different reheating temperatures from 950 °C to 1300 °C. Four microalloyed high-carbon steels having 0.8 %wt C were examined in which three of them had varying Nb concentrations from 0.005 wt% to 0.02 wt% and one of them had no Nb concentration. The quantitative metallographic techniques were used to measure the average prior austenite grain size in order to compare the grain growth pinning effects of Nb precipitates as a function of reheating temperature. Due to the higher stability of the precipitates with increasing Nb concentrations, the grain coarsening temperature that resulted in inefficient grain growth impediment and a bimodal grain distribution in the microstructure, showed an increase with increasing Nb concentration. The respective grain coarsening temperatures (T_GC) in an ascending order for the steels having 0.005 wt% Nb, 0.01 wt% Nb and 0.02 wt% Nb were 950 °C, 1050 °C and 1150 °C. According to these observed grain coarsening temperatures, an approximation was made considering the complete dissolution temperature (T_DISS) of second phase particles as T_GC=T_DISS-300. On the other hand, the plain carbon steel did not show abnormal grain growth behaviour due to the absence of second phase particles. It was also observed that the higher the Nb concentration, the smaller the average prior austenite grain size although the small increments in Nb concenration did not change the average grain size considerably.

Keywords: microalloyed steels, prior austenite grains, second phase particles, grain coarsening temperature

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1334 Effect of Crystallographic Characteristics on Toughness of Coarse Grain Heat Affected Zone for Different Heat Inputs

Authors: Trishita Ray, Ashok Perka, Arnab Karani, M. Shome, Saurabh Kundu

Abstract:

Line pipe steels are used for long distance transportation of crude oil and gas under extreme environmental conditions. Welding is necessary to lay large scale pipelines. Coarse Grain Heat Affected Zone (CGHAZ) of a welded joint exhibits worst toughness because of excessive grain growth and brittle microstructures like bainite and martensite, leading to early failure. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate microstructures and properties of the CGHAZ for different welding heat inputs. In the present study, CGHAZ for two heat inputs of 10 kJ/cm and 50 kJ/cm were simulated in Gleeble 3800, and the microstructures were investigated in detail by means of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD). Charpy Impact Tests were also done to evaluate the impact properties. High heat input was characterized with very low toughness and massive prior austenite grains. With the crystallographic information from EBSD, the area of a single prior austenite grain was traced out for both the welding conditions. Analysis of the prior austenite grains showed the formation of high angle boundaries between the crystallographic packets. Effect of these packet boundaries on secondary cleavage crack propagation was discussed. It was observed that in the low heat input condition, formation of finer packets with a criss-cross morphology inside prior austenite grains was effective in crack arrest whereas, in the high heat input condition, formation of larger packets with higher volume of low angle boundaries failed to resist crack propagation resulting in a brittle fracture. Thus, the characteristics in a crystallographic packet and impact properties are related and should be controlled to obtain optimum properties.

Keywords: coarse grain heat affected zone, crystallographic packet, toughness, line pipe steel

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1333 Implementation of a Program of Orientation for Travel Nursing Staff Based on Nurse-Identified Learning Needs

Authors: Olga C. Rodrigue

Abstract:

Long-term care and skilled nursing facilities experience ebbs and flows of nursing staffing, a problem compounded by the perception of the facilities as undesirable workplaces and competition for staff from other healthcare entities. Travel nurses are contracted to fill staffing needs due to increased admissions, increased and unexpected attrition of nurses, or facility expansion of services. Prior to beginning the contracted assignment, the travel nurse must meet industry, company, and regulatory requirements (The Joint Commission and CMS) for skills and knowledge. Travel nurses, however, inconsistently receive the pre-assignment orientation needed to work at the contracted facility, if any information is given at all. When performance expectations are not met, travel nurses may subsequently choose to leave the position without completing the terms of the contract, and some facilities may choose to terminate the contract prior to the expected end date. The overarching goal of the Doctor of Nursing Practice evidence-based practice improvement project is to provide travel nurses with the basic and necessary information to prepare them to begin a long-term and skilled nursing assignment. The project involves the identification of travel nurse learning needs through a survey and the development and provision of web-based learning modules to address those needs prior to arrival for a long-term and skilled nursing assignment.

Keywords: nurse staffing, travel nurse, travel staff, contract staff, contracted assignment, long-term care, skilled nursing, onboarding, orientation, staff development, supplemental staff

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1332 Preoperative Smoking Cessation Audit: A Single Centre Experience from Metropolitan Melbourne

Authors: Ya-Chu May Tsai, Ibrahim Yacoub, Eoin Casey

Abstract:

The Australian and New Zealand College of Anaesthetists (ANZCA) advises that smoking should not be permitted within 12 hours of surgery. There is little information in the medical literature regarding patients awareness of perioperative smoking cessation recommendations nor their appreciation of how smoking might negatively impact their perioperative course. The aim of the study is to assess the prevalence of current smokers presenting to Werribee Mercy Hospital (WMH) and to evaluate if pre-operative provision of both written and verbal pre-operative advice was, 1: Effective in improving patient awareness of the benefits of pre-operative smoking cessation, 2: Associated with an increase in the number of elective surgical patients who stop smoking at least 12 hours pre-operatively. Methods: The initial survey included all patients who presented to WMH for elective surgical procedures from 19 – 30 September 2016 using a standardized questionnaire focused on patients’ smoking history and their awareness of smoking cessation preoperatively. The intervention consisted of a standard pre-operative phone call to all patients advising them of the increased perioperative risks associated with smoking, and advised patients to cease 12 hours prior. In addition, written information on smoking cessation strategies were sent out in mail at least 1 week prior to planned procedure date to all patients. Questionnaire-based study after the intervention was conducted on day of elective procedure from 10 – 21 October 2016 inclusive. Primary outcomes measured were patient’s awareness of smoking cessation and proportion of smokers who quit >12 hours, considered a clinically meaning duration to reduce anaesthetics complications. Comparison of pre and post intervention results were made using SPSS 21.0. Results: In the pre-intervention group (n=156), 36 (22.4%) patients were current smokers, 46 were ex-smokers (29.5%) and 74 were non-smokers (48.1%). Of the smokers, 12 (33%) reported having been informed of smoking cessation prior to operation and 8 (22%) were aware of increased intra- and perioperative adverse events associated with smoking. In the post-intervention group n= 177, 38 (21.5%) patients were current smokers, 39 were ex-smokers (22.0%) and 100 were non-smokers (56.5%). Of the smokers, 32 (88.9%) reported having been informed of smoking cessation prior to operation and 35 (97.2%) reported being aware of increased intra- and perioperative adverse events associated with smoking. The median time since last smoke in the pre-intervention group was 5.5 hours (Q1-Q3 = 2-14) compared with 13 hours (Q1-Q3 = 5-24) in post intervention group. Amongst the smokers, smoking cessation at least 12 hours prior to surgery significantly increased from 27.8% pre-intervention to 52.6% post intervention (P=0.03). Conclusion: A standard preoperative phone call and written instruction on smoking cessation guidelines at time of waitlist placement increase preoperative smoking cessation rates by almost 2-fold.

Keywords: anaesthesia, audit, perioperative medicine, smoking cessation

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1331 The Bayesian Premium Under Entropy Loss

Authors: Farouk Metiri, Halim Zeghdoudi, Mohamed Riad Remita

Abstract:

Credibility theory is an experience rating technique in actuarial science which can be seen as one of quantitative tools that allows the insurers to perform experience rating, that is, to adjust future premiums based on past experiences. It is used usually in automobile insurance, worker's compensation premium, and IBNR (incurred but not reported claims to the insurer) where credibility theory can be used to estimate the claim size amount. In this study, we focused on a popular tool in credibility theory which is the Bayesian premium estimator, considering Lindley distribution as a claim distribution. We derive this estimator under entropy loss which is asymmetric and squared error loss which is a symmetric loss function with informative and non-informative priors. In a purely Bayesian setting, the prior distribution represents the insurer’s prior belief about the insured’s risk level after collection of the insured’s data at the end of the period. However, the explicit form of the Bayesian premium in the case when the prior is not a member of the exponential family could be quite difficult to obtain as it involves a number of integrations which are not analytically solvable. The paper finds a solution to this problem by deriving this estimator using numerical approximation (Lindley approximation) which is one of the suitable approximation methods for solving such problems, it approaches the ratio of the integrals as a whole and produces a single numerical result. Simulation study using Monte Carlo method is then performed to evaluate this estimator and mean squared error technique is made to compare the Bayesian premium estimator under the above loss functions.

Keywords: bayesian estimator, credibility theory, entropy loss, monte carlo simulation

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1330 Organisational Blogging: Reviewing Its Effectiveness as an Organisational Learning Tool

Authors: Gavin J. Baxter, Mark H. Stansfield

Abstract:

This paper reviews the internal use of blogs and their potential effectiveness as organisational learning tools. Prior to and since the emergence of the concept of ‘Enterprise 2.0’ there still remains a lack of empirical evidence associated with how organisations are applying social media tools and whether they are effective towards supporting organisational learning. Surprisingly, blogs, one of the more traditional social media tools, still remains under-researched in the context of ‘Enterprise 2.0’ and organisational learning. The aim of this paper is to identify the theoretical linkage between blogs and organisational learning in addition to reviewing prior research on organisational blogging with a view towards exploring why this area remains under-researched and identifying what needs to be done to try and move the area forward. Through a review of the literature, one of the principal findings of this paper is that organisational blogs, dependent on their use, do have a mutual compatibility with the interpretivist aspect of organisational learning. This paper further advocates that further empirical work in this subject area is required to substantiate this theoretical assumption.

Keywords: Enterprise 2.0, blogs, organisational learning, social media tools

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1329 Evaluation of Prehabilitation Prior to Surgery for an Orthopaedic Pathway

Authors: Stephen McCarthy, Joanne Gray, Esther Carr, Gerard Danjoux, Paul Baker, Rhiannon Hackett

Abstract:

Background: The Go Well Health (GWH) platform is a web-based programme that allows patients to access personalised care plans and resources, aimed at prehabilitation prior to surgery. The online digital platform delivers essential patient education and support for patients prior to undergoing total hip replacements (THR) and total knee replacements (TKR). This study evaluated the impact of an online digital platform (ODP) in terms of functional health outcomes, health related quality of life and hospital length of stay following surgery. Methods: A retrospective cohort study comparing a cohort of patients who used the online digital platform (ODP) to deliver patient education and support (PES) prior to undergoing THR and TKR surgery relative to a cohort of patients who did not access the ODP and received usual care. Routinely collected Patient Reported Outcome Measures (PROMs) data was obtained on 2,406 patients who underwent a knee replacement (n=1,160) or a hip replacement (n=1,246) between 2018 and 2019 in a single surgical centre in the United Kingdom. The Oxford Hip and Knee Score and the European Quality of Life Five-Dimensional tool (EQ5D-5L) was obtained both pre-and post-surgery (at 6 months) along with hospital LOS. Linear regression was used to compare the estimate the impact of GWH on both health outcomes and negative binomial regressions were used to impact on LOS. All analyses adjusted for age, sex, Charlson Comorbidity Score and either pre-operative Oxford Hip/Knee scores or pre-operative EQ-5D scores. Fractional polynomials were used to represent potential non-linear relationships between the factors included in the regression model. Findings: For patients who underwent a knee replacement, GWH had a statistically significant impact on Oxford Knee Scores and EQ5D-5L utility post-surgery (p=0.039 and p=0.002 respectively). GWH did not have a statistically significant impact on the hospital length of stay. For those patients who underwent a hip replacement, GWH had a statistically significant impact on Oxford Hip Scores and EQ5D-5L utility post (p=0.000 and p=0.009 respectively). GWH also had a statistically significant reduction in the hospital length of stay (p=0.000). Conclusion: Health Outcomes were higher for patients who used the GWH platform and underwent THR and TKR relative to those who received usual care prior to surgery. Patients who underwent a hip replacement and used GWH also had a reduced hospital LOS. These findings are important for health policy and or decision makers as they suggest that prehabilitation via an ODP can maximise health outcomes for patients following surgery whilst potentially making efficiency savings with reductions in LOS.

Keywords: digital prehabilitation, online digital platform, orthopaedics, surgery

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