Search results for: backward chaining inference

Authors: José Luis Gallizo, Pilar Gargallo, Ramon Saladrigues, Manuel Salvador

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This study offers an exploratory statistical analysis of the persistence of annual profits across a sample of firms from different European Union (EU) countries. To this end, a hierarchical Bayesian dynamic model has been used which enables the annual behaviour of those profits to be broken down into a permanent structural and a transitory component, while also distinguishing between general effects affecting the industry as a whole to which each firm belongs and specific effects affecting each firm in particular. This breakdown enables the relative importance of those fundamental components to be more accurately evaluated by country and sector. Furthermore, Bayesian approach allows for testing different hypotheses about the homogeneity of the behaviour of the above components with respect to the sector and the country where the firm develops its activity. The data analysed come from a sample of 23,293 firms in EU countries selected from the AMADEUS data-base. The period analysed ran from 1999 to 2007 and 21 sectors were analysed, chosen in such a way that there was a sufficiently large number of firms in each country sector combination for the industry effects to be estimated accurately enough for meaningful comparisons to be made by sector and country. The analysis has been conducted by sector and by country from a Bayesian perspective, thus making the study more flexible and realistic since the estimates obtained do not depend on asymptotic results. In general terms, the study finds that, although the industry effects are significant, more important are the firm specific effects. That importance varies depending on the sector or the country in which the firm carries out its activity. The influence of firm effects accounts for around 81% of total variation and display a significantly lower degree of persistence, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 34%. However, this pattern is not homogeneous but depends on the sector and country analysed. Industry effects depends also on sector and country analysed have a more marginal importance, being significantly more persistent, with adjustment speeds oscillating around 7-8% with this degree of persistence being very similar for most of sectors and countries analysed.

Keywords: dynamic models, Bayesian inference, MCMC, abnormal returns, persistence of profits, return on assets

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Authors: Soma Sarkar

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A number of authors have recently argued that there are strong links between ecosystem services and sustainable development, particularly development efforts that aim to reduce rural poverty. We see two distinct routes by which the science of ecosystem services can contribute to both nature conservation and sustainable development. First, a thorough accounting of ecosystem services and a better understanding of how and at what rates ecosystems produce these services can be used to motivate payment for nature conservation. At least part of the generated funds can be used to compensate people who suffer lost economic opportunities to protect these services. For example, if rural poor are asked to take actions that reduce farm productivity to protect and regulate water supply, those farmers could be compensated for the reduced productivity they experience. When the benefits of natural ecosystems are explicitly quantified, those benefits are more valued both by the people who directly interact with the ecosystems and the governmental and other agencies that would have to pay for substitute sources of these services if these ecosystems should become impaired. Appreciating the value of ecosystem services can motivate increased conservation investment to prevent having to pay for substitutes later. This approach could be characterized as a ‘‘government investment’’ approach because the payments will generally come from beneficiaries outside of the local area, and a governmental or other agency is typically responsible for collecting and redistributing the funds. Second, a focus on the conservation of ecosystem services could improve the success of projects that attempt to both conserve nature and improve the welfare of the rural poor by fostering markets for the goods and services that local people produce or extract from ecosystems. These projects could be characterized as more ‘‘community based’’ because the goal is to foster the more organic, or grassroots, development of cottage industries, such as ecotourism, or the production of non-timber forest products, that are enhanced by better protection of local ecosystems. Using this framework, we discuss the factors that may have contributed to failure or success for several projects in the district of Purulia, one of the most backward districts of India and inhabited by indigenous group of people. A large majority of people in this district are dependent on environment based incomes for their sustenance. The erosion of natural resource base owing to poor governance in the district has led to the reductions in the household incomes of these people. The scale of our analysis is local or project level. The plight of poor has little to do with the production functions of ecosystem services. But for rural poor, at the local level, the status of ecosystem services can make a big difference in their daily lives.

Keywords: ecosystem services, governance, rural poor, community based natural resource management

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Authors: Dijiang Lyu, Shaoying Li, Zhangzhi Tan, Zhifeng Wu, Feng Gao

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Nowadays, China is experiencing rapidly urban rail transit expansions in the world. The purpose of this study is to finely model factors influencing transit ridership at multi-time dimensions within transit stations’ pedestrian catchment area (PCA) in Guangzhou, China. This study was based on multi-sources spatial data, including smart card data, high spatial resolution images, points of interest (POIs), real-estate online data and building height data. Eight multiple linear regression models using backward stepwise method and Geographic Information System (GIS) were created at station-level. According to Chinese code for classification of urban land use and planning standards of development land, residential land-use were divided into three categories: first-level (e.g. villa), second-level (e.g. community) and third-level (e.g. urban villages). Finally, it concluded that: (1) four factors (CBD dummy, number of feeder bus route, number of entrance or exit and the years of station operation) were proved to be positively correlated with transit ridership, but the area of green land-use and water land-use negative correlated instead. (2) The area of education land-use, the second-level and third-level residential land-use were found to be highly connected to the average value of morning peak boarding and evening peak alighting ridership. But the area of commercial land-use and the average height of buildings, were significantly positive associated with the average value of morning peak alighting and evening peak boarding ridership. (3) The area of the second-level residential land-use was rarely correlated with ridership in other regression models. Because private car ownership is still large in Guangzhou now, and some residents living in the community around the stations go to work by transit at peak time, but others are much more willing to drive their own car at non-peak time. The area of the third-level residential land-use, like urban villages, was highly positive correlated with ridership in all models, indicating that residents who live in the third-level residential land-use are the main passenger source of the Guangzhou Metro. (4) The diversity of land-use was found to have a significant impact on the passenger flow on the weekend, but was non-related to weekday. The findings can be useful for station planning, management and policymaking.

Keywords: fine-scale modeling, Guangzhou city, multi-time dimensions, multi-sources spatial data, transit ridership

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Authors: Martins Onyekwelu Onuorah, Jnr Dahiru Usman

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Introduction: In the realm of public health, the threat posed by Monkeypox continues to elicit concern, prompting rigorous studies to understand its dynamics and devise effective containment strategies. Particularly significant is its recurrence in variable populations, such as the observed outbreak in Nigeria in 2022. In light of this, our study undertakes a meticulous analysis, employing a data-driven approach to explore, validate, and propose optimized intervention strategies tailored to the distinct dynamics of Monkeypox within varying demographic structures. Utilizing a deterministic mathematical model, we delved into the intricate dynamics of Monkeypox, with a particular focus on a variable population context. Our qualitative analysis provided insights into the disease-free equilibrium, revealing its stability when R0 is less than one and discounting the possibility of backward bifurcation, as substantiated by the presence of a single stable endemic equilibrium. The model was rigorously validated using real-time data from the Nigerian 2022 recorded cases for Epi weeks 1 – 52. Transitioning from qualitative to quantitative, we augmented our deterministic model with optimal control, introducing three time-dependent interventions to scrutinize their efficacy and influence on the epidemic's trajectory. Numerical simulations unveiled a pronounced impact of the interventions, offering a data-supported blueprint for informed decision-making in containing the disease. A comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis employing the Infection Averted Ratio (IAR), Average Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ACER), and Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) facilitated a balanced evaluation of the interventions’ economic and health impacts. In essence, our study epitomizes a holistic approach to understanding and mitigating Monkeypox, intertwining rigorous mathematical modeling, empirical validation, and economic evaluation. The insights derived not only bolster our comprehension of Monkeypox's intricate dynamics but also unveil optimized, cost-effective interventions. This integration of methodologies and findings underscores a pivotal stride towards aligning public health imperatives with economic sustainability, marking a significant contribution to global efforts in combating infectious diseases.

Keywords: monkeypox, equilibrium states, stability, bifurcation, optimal control, cost-effectiveness

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Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

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Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

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Authors: Christina Tafadzwa

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Global HIV and AIDS trends show that Sub-Saharan Africa is the hardest-hit region, and women are disproportionately affected and infected by HIV. The trend is conspicuous in South Africa, where adolescent girls and young women (AGYW), female university students included, bear the burden of HIV infection. Although the female condom (FC) is the only female-oriented HIV and AIDS technology that provides dual protection against unwanted pregnancy and HIV, its uptake and use remain erratic, especially among the youth and young women in institutions of higher learning. This paper explores empirical evidence from the University of Venda (UniVen), which is in the rural areas of Limpopo Province in South Africa, and also among higher learning institutions experiencing low uptake and use of the FC. A phenomenological approach consisting of in-depth interviews was utilized to collect data from a total of 20 female university students at UniVen who were purposively sampled based on their participation in HIV and AIDS dialogues and campaigns conducted on campus. The findings that were analysed thematically revealed that notions of rurality and sociocultural beliefs surrounding women's sexual and reproductive health are key structural factors that influence the low use and uptake of the FC at the rural university. The evidence thus far revealed that female students are discouraged from collecting or initiating FC because of cultural dictates or prescripts which place the responsibility to collect and initiate condom use on men. Hence the inference that UniVen female students' realities are compounded by notions of rurality and society's patriarchal nature that intersect and limit women's autonomy in matters of sex. Guided by the women empowerment theory, this paper argues that such practices take away UniVen female students' agency to decide on their sexual and reproductive health. The normalisation of socio-cultural and harmful gender practices is also a retrogression in the women's health agenda. The paper recommends a holistic approach that engages traditional and community leaders, particularly men, to unlearn and uproot harmful gender norms and patriarchal elements that hinder the promotion and use of the FC.

Keywords: female condom, UniVen, socio-cultural factors, female students, HIV and AIDS

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Authors: Usharani Rathinam

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Although policies directing inclusion of marginalized were in effect, majority of chronically impoverished in India belonged to schedule caste and schedule tribes. Also, taking into account that poverty is gendered; destitute women belonged to lower social order whose need is not largely highlighted at policy level. This paper discusses on social relations poverty which highlights on how social order that existed structurally in the society can perpetuate chronic poverty, followed by a critical review on social inclusion policies of India, its merits and demerits in addressing chronic poverty. Multiple case study design is utilized to address this concern in four districts of India; Jhansi, Tikamgarh, Cuddalore and Anantapur. These four districts were selected by purposive sampling based on the criteria; the district should either be categorized as a backward district or should have a history of high poverty rate. Qualitative methods including eighty in-depth interviews, six focus group discussions, six social mapping procedures and three key informant interviews were conducted in 2011, at each of the locations. Analysis of the data revealed that irrespective of gender, schedule castes and schedule tribe participants were found to be chronically poor in all districts. Caste based discrimination is exhibited at both micro and macro levels; village and institutional levels. At village level, lower caste respondents had lesser access to public resources. Also, within institutional settings, due to confiscation, unequal access to resources is noticed, especially in fund distribution. This study found that half of the budget intended for schedule caste and schedule tribes were confiscated by upper caste administrative staffs. This implies that power based on social hierarchy marginalize lower caste participants from accessing better economic, social, and political benefits, that had led them to suffer long term poverty. This study also explored the traditional ties between caste, social structure and bonded labour as a cause of long-term poverty. Though equal access is being emphasized in constitutional rights, issues at micro level have not been reflected in formulation of these rights. Therefore, it is significant for a policy to consider the structural complexity and then focus on issues such as equal distribution of assets and infrastructural facilities that will reduce exclusion and foster long-term security in areas such as employment, markets and public distribution.

Keywords: caste, inclusion policies, India, social order

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Authors: Valeria Abreu Minero, Edward Barker, Hannah Dickson, Francois Husson, Sandra Flynn, Jennifer Shaw

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify offender typologies based on aspects of the offenders’ psychopathology and their associations with crime scene behaviours using data derived from the National Confidential Enquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health concerning homicides in England and Wales committed by offenders in contact with mental health services in the year preceding the offence (n=759). Design/methodology/approach – The authors used multiple correspondence analysis to investigate the interrelationships between the variables and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to identify offender typologies. Variables describing: the offender’s mental health history; the offenders’ mental state at the time of offence; characteristics useful for police investigations; and patterns of crime scene behaviours were included. Findings – Results showed differences in the offender’s histories in relation to their crime scene behaviours. Further, analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychosis and depression. Analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychotic and depressive. Practical implications – These typologies may assist the police during homicide investigations by: furthering their understanding of the crime or likely suspect; offering insights into crime patterns; provide advice as to what an offender’s offence behaviour might signify about his/her mental health background; findings suggest information concerning offender psychopathology may be useful for offender profiling purposes in cases of homicide offenders with schizophrenia, depression and comorbid diagnosis of personality disorder and alcohol/drug dependence. Originality/value – Empirical studies with an emphasis on offender profiling have almost exclusively focussed on the inference of offender demographic characteristics. This study provides a first step in the exploration of offender psychopathology and its integration to the multivariate analysis of offence information for the purposes of investigative profiling of homicide by identifying the dominant patterns of mental illness within homicidal behaviour.

Keywords: offender profiling, mental illness, psychopathology, multivariate analysis, homicide, crime scene analysis, crime scene behviours, investigative advice

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Authors: Reza Moloudi, Steve Oh, Charles Chun Yang, Majid Ebrahimi Warkiani, May Win Naing

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Inertial microfluidics has emerged recently as a promising tool for high-throughput manipulation of particles and cells for a wide range of flow cytometric tasks including cell separation/filtration, cell counting, and mechanical phenotyping. Inertial focusing is profoundly reliant on the cross-sectional shape of the channel and its impacts not only on the shear field but also the wall-effect lift force near the wall region. Despite comprehensive experiments and numerical analysis of the lift forces for rectangular and non-rectangular microchannels (half-circular and triangular cross-section), which all possess planes of symmetry, less effort has been made on the 'flow field structure' of trapezoidal straight microchannels and its effects on inertial focusing. On the other hand, a rectilinear channel with trapezoidal cross-sections breaks down all planes of symmetry. In this study, particle focusing dynamics inside trapezoid straight microchannels was first studied systematically for a broad range of channel Re number (20 < Re < 800). The altered axial velocity profile and consequently new shear force arrangement led to a cross-laterally movement of equilibration toward the longer side wall when the rectangular straight channel was changed to a trapezoid; however, the main lateral focusing started to move backward toward the middle and the shorter side wall, depending on particle clogging ratio (K=a/Hmin, a is particle size), channel aspect ratio (AR=W/Hmin, W is channel width, and Hmin is smaller channel height), and slope of slanted wall, as the channel Reynolds number further increased (Re > 50). Increasing the channel aspect ratio (AR) from 2 to 4 and the slope of slanted wall up to Tan(α)≈0.4 (Tan(α)=(Hlonger-sidewall-Hshorter-sidewall)/W) enhanced the off-center lateral focusing position from the middle of channel cross-section, up to ~20 percent of the channel width. It was found that the focusing point was spoiled near the slanted wall due to the dissymmetry; it mainly focused near the bottom wall or fluctuated between the channel center and the bottom wall, depending on the slanted wall and Re (Re < 100, channel aspect ratio 4:1). Eventually, as a proof of principle, a trapezoidal straight microchannel along with a bifurcation was designed and utilized for continuous filtration of a broader range of particle clogging ratio (0.3 < K < 1) exiting through the longer wall outlet with ~99% efficiency (Re < 100) in comparison to the rectangular straight microchannels (W > H, 0.3 ≤ K < 0.5).

Keywords: cell/particle sorting, filtration, inertial microfluidics, straight microchannel, trapezoid

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Authors: Anwar ul Haq

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Muhammad Iqbal was arguably the most significant South Asian Islamic philosopher of the last two centuries. While he is the most revered philosopher of the region, particularly in Pakistan, he is probably the least studied philosopher outside the region. The paper offers a philosophical reconstruction of Iqbal’s view of human agency; it has three sections. Section 1 focuses on Iqbal’s starting point of reflection in practical philosophy (inspired by Kant): our consciousness of ourselves as free agents. The paper brings out Iqbal’s continuity with Kant but also his divergence, in particular his non-Kantian view that we possess a non-sensory intuition of ourselves as free personal causes. It also offer an argument on Iqbal’s behalf for this claim, which is meant as a defense against a Kantian objection to the possibility of intuition of freedom and a skeptic’s challenge to the possibility of freedom in general. Remaining part of the paper offers a reconstruction of Iqbal’s two preconditions of the possibility of free agency. Section 2 discusses the first precondition, namely, the unity of consciousness involved in thought (this is a precondition of agency whether or not it is free). The unity has two aspects, a quantitative (or numerical) aspect and a qualitative (or rational) one. Section 2 offers a defense of these two aspects of the unity of consciousness presupposed by agency by focusing, with Iqbal, on the case of inference.Section 3 discusses a second precondition of the possibility of free agency, that thought and will must be identical in a free agent. Iqbal offers this condition in relief against Bergson’s view. Bergson (on Iqbal’s reading of him) argues that freedom of the will is possible only if the will’s ends are entirely its own and are wholly undetermined by anything from without, not even by thought. Iqbal observes that Bergson’s position ends in an insurmountable dualism of will and thought. Bergson’s view, Iqbal argues in particular, rests on an untenable conception of what an end consists in. An end, correctly understood, is framed by a thinking faculty, the intellect, and not by an extra-rational faculty. The present section outlines Iqbal’s argument for this claim, which rests on the premise that ends possess a certain unity which is intrinsic to particular ends and holds together different ends, and this unity is none other than the quantitative and qualitative unity of a thinking consciousness but in its practical application. Having secured the rational origin of ends, Iqbal argues that a free will must be identical with thought, or else it will be determined from without and won’t be free on that account. Freedom of the self is not a freedom from thought but a freedom in thought: it involves the ability to live a thoughtful life.

Keywords: iqbal, freedom, will, self

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Authors: Andreea Halunga, Chris D. Orme, Takashi Yamagata

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This paper proposes a heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test of the null hypothesis of zero cross-section (or contemporaneous) correlation in linear panel-data models, without necessarily assuming independence of the cross-sections. The procedure allows for either fixed, strictly exogenous and/or lagged dependent regressor variables, as well as quite general forms of both non-normality and heteroskedasticity in the error distribution. The asymptotic validity of the test procedure is predicated on the number of time series observations, T, being large relative to the number of cross-section units, N, in that: (i) either N is fixed as T→∞; or, (ii) N²/T→0, as both T and N diverge, jointly, to infinity. Given this, it is not expected that asymptotic theory would provide an adequate guide to finite sample performance when T/N is "small". Because of this, we also propose and establish asymptotic validity of, a number of wild bootstrap schemes designed to provide improved inference when T/N is small. Across a variety of experimental designs, a Monte Carlo study suggests that the predictions from asymptotic theory do, in fact, provide a good guide to the finite sample behaviour of the test when T is large relative to N. However, when T and N are of similar orders of magnitude, discrepancies between the nominal and empirical significance levels occur as predicted by the first-order asymptotic analysis. On the other hand, for all the experimental designs, the proposed wild bootstrap approximations do improve agreement between nominal and empirical significance levels, when T/N is small, with a recursive-design wild bootstrap scheme performing best, in general, and providing quite close agreement between the nominal and empirical significance levels of the test even when T and N are of similar size. Moreover, in comparison with the wild bootstrap "version" of the original Breusch-Pagan test our experiments indicate that the corresponding version of the heteroskedasticity-robust Breusch-Pagan test appears reliable. As an illustration, the proposed tests are applied to a dynamic growth model for a panel of 20 OECD countries.

Keywords: cross-section correlation, time-series heteroskedasticity, dynamic panel data, heteroskedasticity robust Breusch-Pagan test

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Authors: Isabelle Lorge, Napoleon Katsos

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BACKGROUND: Children growing up in a multilingual environment face challenges related to the need to monitor the speaker’s linguistic abilities, more frequent communication failures, and having to acquire a large number of words in a limited amount of time compared to monolinguals. As a result, bilingual learners may develop different word learning strategies, rely more on some strategies than others, and engage cognitive resources such as theory of mind and attention skills in different ways. HYPOTHESIS: The goal of our study is to investigate whether multilingual exposure leads to improvements in the ability to use pragmatic inference for word learning, i.e., to use speaker cues to derive their referring intentions, often by overcoming lower level salience effects. The speaker cues we identified as relevant are (a) use of a modifier with or without stress (‘the WET dax’ prompting the choice of the referent which has a dry counterpart), (b) referent extension (‘this is a kitten with a fep’ prompting the choice of the unique rather than shared object), (c) referent novelty (choosing novel action rather than novel object which has been manipulated already), (d) teacher versus random sampling (assuming the choice of specific examples for a novel word to be relevant to the extension of that new category), and finally (e) emotional affect (‘look at the figoo’ uttered in a sad or happy voice) . METHOD: To this end, we implemented on a touchscreen computer a task corresponding to each of the cues above, where the child had to pick the referent of a novel word. These word learning tasks (a), (b), (c), (d) and (e) were adapted from previous word learning studies. 113 children have been tested (54 reception and 59 year 1, ranging from 4 to 6 years old) in a London primary school. Bilingual or monolingual status and other relevant information (age of onset, proficiency, literacy for bilinguals) is ascertained through language questionnaires from parents (34 out of 113 received to date). While we do not yet have the data that will allow us to test for effect of bilingualism, we can already see that performances are far from approaching ceiling in any of the tasks. In some cases the children’s performances radically differ from adults’ in a qualitative way, which means that there is scope for quantitative and qualitative effects to arise between language groups. The findings should contribute to explain the puzzling speed and efficiency that bilinguals demonstrate in acquiring competence in two languages.

Keywords: bilingualism, pragmatics, word learning, attention

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Authors: Wafeek Mohamed Ibrahim Mohamed

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In the era of globalization, the camera of the cinematographic film plays a very important role in terms of monitoring and documenting what it was and distinguished the built environment of architectural and Urbanism. Moving the audience to the out-going backward through the cinematographic film and its stereophonic screen by which the picture appears at its best and its coexistence reached now its third dimension. The camera has indicated to the city shape with its paths, (alley) lanes, buildings and its architectural style. We have seen the architectural styles in its cinematic scenes which remained a remembrance in its history, in spite of the fact that some of which has been disappearing as what happened to ‘Boulak Bridge’ in Cairo built by ‘Eiffel’ and it has been demolished, but it remains a remembrance we can see it in the films of ’Usta Hassan’and A Crime in the Quiet Neighborhood. The purpose of the fundamental research is an attempt to reach a critical view of the idea of criticism and theorizing for Architecture and Urbanism in the cinematographic film and their relationship and reflection on the ‘audience’ understanding of the public opinion related to our built environment of Architectural and Urbanism with its problems and hardness. It is like as a trial to study the Architecture and Urbanism of the built environment in the cinematographic film and hooking up (linking) a realistic view of the governing conceptual significance thereof. The aesthetic thought of our traditional environment, in a psychological and anthropological framework, derives from the cinematic concept of the Architecture and Urbanism of the place and the dynamics of the space. The architectural space considers the foundation stone of the cinematic story and the main background of the events therein, which integrate the audience into a romantic trip to the city through its symbolized image of the spaces, lanes [alley], etc. This will be done through two main branches: firstly, Reviewing during time pursuit of the Architecture and Urbanism in the cinematographic films the thirties ago in the Egyptian cinema [onset from the film ‘Bab El Hadid’ to the American University at a film of ‘Saidi at the American University’]. The research concludes the importance of the need to study the cinematic films which deal with our societies, their architectural and Urbanism concerns whether the traditional ones or the contemporary and their crisis (such as the housing crisis in the film of ‘Krakoun in the street’, etc) to study the built environment with its architectural dynamic spaces through a modernist view. In addition, using the cinema as an important Media for spreading the ideas, documenting and monitoring the current changes in the built environment through its various dramas and comedies, etc. The cinema is considered as a mirror of the society and its built environment over the epochs. It assured the unique case constituted by cinema with the audience (public opinion) through a sense of emptiness and forming the mental image related to the city and the built environment.

Keywords: architectural and urbanism, cinematographic architectural, film, space in the film, media

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Authors: Roberto Rosenhaim, Marcos Antonio Crus Moreira, Robson da Cunha, Gerson Gomes Cunha

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This work provides details on the wind speed behavior within cities of Arraial do Cabo and São Pedro da Aldeia located in the Lakes Region of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. This region has one of the best potentials for wind power generation. In interurban layer, wind conditions are very complex and depend on physical geography, size and orientation of buildings and constructions around, population density, and land use. In the same context, the fundamental surface parameter that governs the production of flow turbulence in urban canyons is the surface roughness. Such factors can influence the potential for power generation from the wind within the cities. Moreover, the use of wind on a small scale is not fully utilized due to complexity of wind flow measurement inside the cities. It is difficult to accurately predict this type of resource. This study demonstrates how fuzzy logic can facilitate the assessment of the complexity of the wind potential inside the cities. It presents a decision support tool and its ability to deal with inaccurate information using linguistic variables created by the heuristic method. It relies on the already published studies about the variables that influence the wind speed in the urban environment. These variables were turned into the verbal expressions that are used in computer system, which facilitated the establishment of rules for fuzzy inference and integration with an application for smartphones used in the research. In the first part of the study, challenges of the sustainable development which are described are followed by incentive policies to the use of renewable energy in Brazil. The next chapter follows the study area characteristics and the concepts of fuzzy logic. Data were collected in field experiment by using qualitative and quantitative methods for assessment. As a result, a map of the various points is presented within the cities studied with its wind viability evaluated by a system of decision support using the method multivariate classification based on fuzzy logic.

Keywords: behavior of winds, wind power, fuzzy logic, sustainable development

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Authors: Mária Ildikó Farkas

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Kokugaku of the Edo period can be seen as a key factor of defining cultural (and national) identity in the 18th and early 19th century based on Japanese cultural heritage. Kokugaku focused on Japanese classics, on exploring, studying and reviving (or even inventing) ancient Japanese language, literature, myths, history and also political ideology. ‘Japanese culture’ as such was distinguished from Chinese (and all other) cultures, ‘Japanese identity’ was thus defined. Meiji scholars used kokugaku conceptions of Japan to construct a modern national identity based on the premodern and culturalist conceptions of community. The Japanese cultural movement of the 18-19th centuries (kokugaku) of defining cultural and national identity before modernization can be compared not to the development of Western Europe (where national identity strongly attached to modern nation states) or other parts of Asia (where these emerged after the Western colonization), but rather with the ‘national awakening’ movements of the peoples of East Central Europe, a comparison which have not been dealt with in the secondary literature yet. The role of a common language, culture, history and myths in the process of defining cultural identity – following mainly Miroslav Hroch’s comparative and interdisciplinary theory of national development – can be examined compared to the movements of defining identity of the peoples of East Central Europe (18th-19th c). In the shadow of a cultural and/or political ‘monolith’ (China for Japan and Germany for Central Europe), before modernity, ethnic groups or communities started to evolve their own identities with cultural movements focusing on their own language and culture, thus creating their cultural identity, and in the end, a new sense of community, the nation. Comparing actual texts (‘narratives’) of the kokugaku scholars and Central European writers of the nation building period (18th and early 19th centuries) can reveal the similarities of the discourses of deliberate searches for identity. Similar motives of argument can be identified in these narratives: ‘language’ as the primary bearer of collective identity, the role of language in culture, ‘culture’ as the main common attribute of the community; and similar aspirations to explore, search and develop native language, ‘genuine’ culture, ‘original’ traditions. This comparative research offering ‘development patterns’ for interpretation can help us understand processes that may be ambiguously considered ‘backward’ or even ‘deleterious’ (e.g. cultural nationalism) or just ‘unique’. ‘Cultural identity’ played a very important role in the formation of national identity during modernization especially in the case of non-Western communities, who had to face the danger of losing their identities in the course of ‘Westernization’ accompanying modernization.

Keywords: cultural identity, Japanese modernization, kokugaku, national awakening

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Authors: Shyamani Hettiarachchi, Gopi Kitnasamy

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Background: The potentially high level of physical need and dependency experienced by children with cerebral palsy could affect the quality of life (QOL) of the child, the caregiver and his/her family. Poor QOL in children with cerebral palsy is associated with the parent-child relationship, limited opportunities for social participation, limited access to healthcare services, psychological well-being and the child's physical functioning. Given that children experiencing disabilities have little access to remedial support with an inequitable service across districts in Sri Lanka, and given the impact of culture and societal stigma, there may be differing viewpoints across respondents. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the psychometric properties of the Tamil version of the Cerebral Palsy Quality of Life for Children (CPQOL-Child) Questionnaire. Design: An instrument development and validation study. Methods: Forward and backward translations of the CPQOL-Child were undertaken by a team comprised of a physiotherapist, speech and language therapist and two linguists for the primary caregiver form and the child self-report form. As part of a pilot phase, the Tamil version of the CPQOL was completed by 45 primary caregivers with children with cerebral palsy and 15 children with cerebral palsy (GMFCS level 3-4). In addition, the primary caregivers commented on the process of filling in the questionnaire. The psychometric properties of test-retest reliability, internal consistency and construct validity were undertaken. Results: The test-retest reliability and internal consistency were high. A significant association (p < 0.001) was found between limited motor skills and poor QOL. The Cronbach's alpha for the whole questionnaire was at 0.95.Similarities and divergences were found between the two groups of respondents. The child respondents identified limited motor skills as associated with physical well-being and autonomy. Akin to this, the primary caregivers associated the severity of motor function with limitations of physical well-being and autonomy. The trend observed was that QOL was not related to the level of impairment but connected to environmental factors by the child respondents. In addition to this, the main concern among primary caregivers about the child's future and on the child's lack of independence was not fully captured by the QOL questionnaire employed. Conclusions: Although the initial results of the CPQOL questionnaire show high test-retest reliability and internal consistency of the instrument, it does not fully reflect the socio-cultural realities and primary concerns of the caregivers. The current findings highlight the need to take child and caregiver perceptions of QOL into account in clinical practice and research. It strongly indicates the need for culture-specific measures of QOL.

Keywords: cerebral palsy, CPQOL, culture, quality of life

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Authors: Magdalena Smoktunowicz, Renata Wawrzyniak, Malgorzata Waleron, Krzysztof Waleron

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Pectobacterium spp. were previously classified into the Erwinia genus founded in 1917 to unite at that time all Gram-negative, fermentative, nonsporulating and peritrichous flagellated plant pathogenic bacteria. After work of Waldee (1945), on Approved Lists of Bacterial Names and bacteriology manuals in 1980, they were described either under the species named Erwinia or Pectobacterium. The Pectobacterium genus was formally described in 1998 of 265 Pectobacterium strains. Currently, there are 21 species of Pectobacterium bacteria, including Pectobacterium betavasculorum since 2003, which caused soft rot on sugar beet tubers. Based on the biochemical experiments carried out for this, it is known that these bacteria are gram-negative, catalase-positive, oxidase-negative, facultatively anaerobic, using gelatin and causing symptoms of soft rot on potato and sugar beet tubers. The mere fact of growing on sugar beet may indicate a metabolism characteristic only for this species. Metabolomics, broadly defined as the biology of the metabolic systems, which allows to make comprehensive measurements of metabolites. Metabolomics, in combination with genomics, are complementary tools for the identification of metabolites and their reactions, and thus for the reconstruction of metabolic networks. The aim of this study was to apply the GC-MS-based untargeted metabolomics to study the metabolism of P. betavasculorum in different growing conditions. The metabolomic profiles of biomass and biomass media were determined. For sample preparation the following protocol was used: extraction with 900 µl of methanol: chloroform: water mixture (10: 3: 1, v: v) were added to 900 µl of biomass from the bottom of the tube and up to 900 µl of nutrient medium from the bacterial biomass. After centrifugation (13,000 x g, 15 min, 4oC), 300µL of the obtained supernatants were concentrated by rotary vacuum and evaporated to dryness. Afterwards, two-step derivatization procedure was performed before GC-MS analyses. The obtained results were subjected to statistical calculations with the use of both uni- and multivariate tests. The obtained results were evaluated using KEGG database, to asses which metabolic pathways are activated and which genes are responsible for it, during the metabolism of given substrates contained in the growing environment. The observed metabolic changes, combined with biochemical and physiological tests, may enable pathway discovery, regulatory inference and understanding of the homeostatic abilities of P. betavasculorum.

Keywords: GC-MS chromatograpfy, metabolomics, metabolism, pectobacterium strains, pectobacterium betavasculorum

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Authors: Seyed Esmail Seyedi Bariran, Khairul Salleh Mohamed Sahari

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Apparent quality defects such as warpage, shrinkage, weld line, etc. are such an irresistible phenomenon in mass production of auto plastic appearance parts. These frequently occurred manufacturing defects should be satisfied concurrently so as to achieve a final product with acceptable quality standards. Determining the significant control factors that simultaneously affect multiple quality characteristics can significantly improve the optimization results by eliminating the deviating effect of the so-called ineffective outliers. Hence, a robust quantitative approach needs to be developed upon which major control factors and their level can be effectively determined to help improve the reliability of the optimal processing parameter design. Hence, the primary objective of current study was to develop a systematic methodology for selection of significant control factors (SCF) relevant to multiple quality optimization of auto plastic appearance part. Auto bumper was used as a specimen with the most identical quality and production characteristics to APAP group. A preliminary failure modes and effect analysis (FMEA) was conducted to nominate a database of pseudo significant significant control factors prior to the optimization phase. Later, CAE simulation Moldflow analysis was implemented to manipulate four rampant plastic injection quality defects concerned with APAP group including warpage deflection, volumetric shrinkage, sink mark and weld line. Furthermore, a step-backward elimination searching method (SESME) has been developed for systematic pre-optimization selection of SCF based on hierarchical orthogonal array design and priority-based one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA). The development of robust parameter design in the second phase was based on DOE module powered by Minitab v.16 statistical software. Based on the F-test (F 0.05, 2, 14) one-way ANOVA results, it was concluded that for warpage deflection, material mixture percentage was the most significant control factor yielding a 58.34% of contribution while for the other three quality defects, melt temperature was the most significant control factor with a 25.32%, 84.25%, and 34.57% contribution for sin mark, shrinkage and weld line strength control. Also, the results on the he least significant control factors meaningfully revealed injection fill time as the least significant factor for both warpage and sink mark with respective 1.69% and 6.12% contribution. On the other hand, for shrinkage and weld line defects, the least significant control factors were holding pressure and mold temperature with a 0.23% and 4.05% overall contribution accordingly.

Keywords: plastic injection moulding, quality optimization, FMEA, ANOVA, SESME, APAP

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Authors: B. S. Premalatha, Kausalya Sahani

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Background: Voice is multidimensional which convey emotion, feelings, and communication. Voice disorders have an adverse effect on the physical, emotional and functional domains of an individual. Self-rating by clients about their voice problem helps the clinicians to plan intervention strategies. Voice handicap index is one such self-rating scale contains 30 questions that quantify the functional, physical and emotional impacts of a voice disorder on a patient’s quality of life. Each subsection has 10 questions. Though adapted and validated versions of VHI are available in other Indian languages but not in Telugu, which is a Dravidian language native to India. It is mainly spoken in Andhra Pradesh and neighbouring states in southern India. Objectives: To adapt and validate the English version of Voice Handicap Index (VHI) into Telugu language and evaluate its internal consistency and clinical validate in Telugu speaking population. Materials: The study carried out in three stages. First stage was a forward translation of English version of VHI, was given to ten experts, who were well proficient in writing and reading Telugu and five speech-language pathologists to translate into Telugu. Second Stage was backward translation where translated version of Telugu was given to a different group of ten experts (who were well proficient in writing and reading Telugu) and five speech-language pathologists who were native Telugu speakers and had good proficiency in Telugu and English. The third stage was an administration of translated version on Telugu to the targeted population. Totally 40 clinical subjects and 40 normal controls served as participants, and each group had 26 males and 14 females’ age range of 20 to 60 years. Clinical group comprised of individuals with laryngectomee with the Tracheoesophageal puncture (n=18), laryngitis (n=11), vocal nodules (n=7) and vocal fold palsy (n=4). Participants were asked to mark of their each experience on a 5 point equal appearing scale (0=never, 1=almost never, 2=sometimes, 3=almost always, 4=always) with a maximum total score of 120. Results: Statistical analysis was made by using SPSS software (22.0.0 Version). Mean, standard deviation and percentage (%) were calculated all the participants for both the groups. Internal consistency of VHI in Telugu was found to be excellent with the consistency scores for all the domains such as physical, emotional and functional are 0.742, 0.934and 0.938. The validity of scores showed a significant difference between clinical population and control group for domains like physical, emotional and functional and total scores. P value found to be less than 0.001( < 0.001). Negative correlation found in age and gender among self-domains such as physical, emotional and functional total scores in dysphonic and control group. Conclusion: The present study indicated that VHI in Telugu is able to discriminate participants having voice pathology from normal populations, which make this as a valid tool to collect information about their voice from the participants.

Keywords: adaptation, Telugu Version, translation, Voice Handicap Index (VHI)

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Authors: Juan Bernal-Martinez, Zoe Quinones-Jurado, Miguel Waldo-Mendoza, Elias Perez

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Introduction and Objective: Ag-TiO2 nanoparticles (NP) have been characterized as effective antibacterial compounds against E. aureous, E. coli, Salmonella and others. Because these nanoparticles have been used in plastic-food containers, there is a concern about the toxicity of Ag-TiO2 NP for higher organisms from protozoan, invertebrates, and mammals. The objective of this study is to evaluate the cytotoxic effect of Ag-TiO2 NP on the survival and swimming behavior of the unicellular organism Paramecium tetraurelia. Material and Methods: Preparation of metallic silver on TiO2 surface was based on chemical reduction route of AgNO3. Aqueous suspension of TiO2 nanoparticles was preparing by adding 5 g of TiO2 to 250 ml of deionized water and followed by sonication for 10 min. The required amount of AgNO3 solutions was added to TiO2 suspension, maintaining heating and stirring. Silver concentration was 0.5, 1.5, 5.0, 25, 35 and 45 % w/w versus TiO2. Paramecium tetraurelia (Carolina Biological, Cat. # 131560) was used as a biological preparation. It was cultured in artificial culture media made as follows: Stigmasterol 5 mg/ml of ethanol, Caseaminoacids 0.3 gr/lt.; KCl 4mM; CaCl2 1mM; MgCl2 100uM and MOPS 1mM, pH 7.3. This media was inoculated with Enterobacter-sp. Paramecium was concentrated after 24 hours of incubation by centrifugation. The pellet of cells was resuspended in 4.1.1 solution prepared as follows (in mM): KCl, 4 mM; CaCl2, 1mM and Trizma, 1mM; pH 7.3. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) studies were performed to evaluate the appropriate dispersion and topographic distribution AgNPs deposited on TiO2. The experimental solutions were prepared as follows: 50 mg of Polyvinyhlpirolidone were added to 5 ml of 4.1.1. solution. Then, 50 mg of powder 25-Ag-TiO2 was added, mixing for 10 min and sonicated for 60 min. Survival of Paramecium and possible toxic effects after 25-Ag-TiO2 treatment was observed through an inverted microscope. The Paramecium swimming behavior and possible dead cells were recorded for periods of approximately 20-50 seconds by using a digital USB camera adapted to the microscope. Results and Discussion: TEM micrographs demonstrated the topographic distribution of AgNPs deposited on TiO2. 25Ag-TiO2 NP was efficiently dissolved and dispersed in 4.1.1 solution at concentrations from 0.1, 1 and 10 mg/ml. When Paramecium were treated with 25Ag-TiO2 NP at 100 ug/ml, it was observed that cells started swimming backwards. This backward swimming behavior is the typical avoiding reaction of the ciliate in response to a noxious stimulus. After 10 min of incubation, it was observed that Paramecium stopped swimming backwards and exploited. We can argue that this toxic effect of 25Ag-TiO2 NP is probably due to the calcium influx and calcium accumulation during the long-lasting swimming backwards. Conclusions: Here we have demonstrated that 25Ag-TiO2 NP has a specific toxic effect on an organism higher than bacteria such as the protozoan Paremecium. Probably these toxic phenomena could be expected to be observed in a higher organism such as invertebrates and mammals.

Keywords: Ag-TiO2, calcium permeability, cytotoxicity, paramecium

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Authors: Ye Zhang, Chuanjun Liu

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In-service aircraft is exposed to different types of threaten, e.g. bird strike, ground vehicle impact, and run-way debris, or even lightning strike, etc. To satisfy the aircraft damage tolerance design requirements, the designer has to understand the threatening level for different types of the aircraft structures, either metallic or composite. Exposing to low-velocity impacts may produce very serious internal damages such as delaminations and matrix cracks without leaving visible mark onto the impacted surfaces for composite structures. This internal damage can cause significant reduction in the load carrying capacity of structures. The semi-probabilistic method provides a practical and proper approximation to establish the impact-threat based energy cut-off level for the damage tolerance evaluation of the aircraft components. Thus, the probabilistic distribution of impact threat and the realistic impact energy level cut-offs are the essential establishments required for the certification of aircraft composite structures. A new survey of impact threat to civil aircraft in-service has recently been carried out based on field records concerning around 500 civil aircrafts (mainly single aisles) and more than 4.8 million flight hours. In total 1,006 damages caused by low-velocity impact events had been screened out from more than 8,000 records including impact dents, scratches, corrosions, delaminations, cracks etc. The impact threat dependency on the location of the aircraft structures and structural configuration was analyzed. Although the survey was mainly focusing on the metallic structures, the resulting low-energy impact data are believed likely representative to general civil aircraft, since the service environments and the maintenance operations are independent of the materials of the structures. The probability of impact damage occurrence (Po) and impact energy exceedance (Pe) are the two key parameters for describing the statistic distribution of impact threat. With the impact damage events from the survey, Po can be estimated as 2.1x10-4 per flight hour. Concerning the calculation of Pe, a numerical model was developed using the commercial FEA software ABAQUS to backward estimate the impact energy based on the visible damage characteristics. The relationship between the visible dent depth and impact energy was established and validated by drop-weight impact experiments. Based on survey results, Pe was calculated and assumed having a log-linear relationship versus the impact energy. As the product of two aforementioned probabilities, Po and Pe, it is reasonable and conservative to assume Pa=PoxPe=10-5, which indicates that the low-velocity impact events are similarly likely as the Limit Load events. Combing Pa with two probabilities Po and Pe obtained based on the field survey, the cutoff level of realistic impact energy was estimated and valued as 34 J. In summary, a new survey was recently done on field records of civil aircraft to investigate the probabilistic distribution of impact threat. Based on the data, two probabilities, Po and Pe, were obtained. Considering a conservative assumption of Pa, the cutoff energy level for the realistic impact energy has been determined, which provides potential applicability in damage tolerance certification of future civil aircraft.

Keywords: composite structure, damage tolerance, impact threat, probabilistic

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Authors: Mohammad Lemar Zalmai, Osman Hurol Turkakin, Cemil Akcay, Ekrem Manisali

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In public construction projects, determining the contract period in the award phase is one of the most important factors. The contract period establishes the baseline for creating the cash flow curve and progress payment planning in the post-award phase. If overestimated, project duration causes losses for both the owner and the contractor. Therefore, it is essential to base construction project duration on reliable forecasting. In Turkey, schedules are usually built using the bar chart (Gantt) schedule, especially for governmental construction agencies. The usage of these schedules is limited for bidding purposes. Although the bar-chart schedule is useful in some cases, it lacks logical connections between activities; it would be harder to obtain the activities that have more effects than others on the project's total duration, especially in large complex projects. In this study, a construction schedule is prepared with Critical Path Method (CPM) that addresses the above-mentioned discrepancies. CPM is a simple and effective method that displays project time and critical paths, showing results of forward and backward calculations with considering the logic relationships between activities; it is a powerful tool for planning and managing all kinds of construction projects and is a very convenient method for the construction industry. CPM provides a much more useful and precise approach than traditional bar-chart diagrams that form the basis of construction planning and control. CPM has two main application utilities in the construction field; the first one is obtaining project duration, which is called an as-planned schedule that includes as-planned activity durations with relationships between subsequent activities. Another utility is during the project execution; each activity is tracked, and their durations are recorded in order to obtain as-built schedule, which is named as a black box of the project. The latter is more useful for delay analysis, and conflict resolutions. These features of CPM have been popular around the world. However, it has not been yet extensively used in Turkey. In this study, a real construction project is investigated as a case study; CPM-based scheduling is used for establishing both of as-built and as-planned schedules. Problems that emerged during the construction phase are identified and categorized. Subsequently, solutions are suggested. Two scenarios were considered. In the first scenario, project progress was monitored based as CPM was used to track and manage progress; this was carried out based on real-time data. In the second scenario, project progress was supposedly tracked based on the assumption that the Gantt chart was used. The S-curves of the two scenarios are plotted and interpreted. Comparing the results, possible faults of the latter scenario are highlighted, and solutions are suggested. The importance of CPM implementation has been emphasized and it has been proposed to make it mandatory for preparation of construction schedule based on CPM for public construction projects contracts.

Keywords: as-built, case-study, critical path method, Turkish government sector projects

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Authors: Protyoy Sen

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Heritage conservation often holds different meanings and values for different people. To a cultural or architectural body it might be about protecting relics of the past, while for an government body or corporate it might be the value of the real estate which generates profits in terms of hospitality, tourism or some form of trade. But often, a significant proportion of the built fabric in our cities comprises of what usually does not come under the common lenses of collective heritage or conservation i.e. private houses. Standing ode to a bygone era of different communities, trades and practices that once inhabited the city, old private houses of certain architectural or historic character face the gravest challenges of heritage conservation. These – despite being significant to the heritage fabric of a city – neither get the social attention nor the financial aid for repair and periodic maintenance, that many monuments and public buildings do. The situation in India is no different. Private residences belonging to affluent families of an earlier time, today lie in varying degrees of neglect and dilapidation. With the growth of nuclear families, drastic change in people’s and expensive repairs of historic material fabric (amongst other reasons), houses of heritage value often become liabilities, and metaphorical to a white elephant in a poor man’s backyard. In a capitalistic setup that values time and money over everything, it is not reasonable that one justifies the conservation of individual / family assets solely through architectural, historical or cultural values. It is quite logical them, that the houseowner – in most cases, a layperson – must be made to understand of both tangible and intangible values in order to (1) take the trouble of the effort, resources and aid (if possible) to repair and maintain a house of heritage character and, (2) choose to invest into a building that today might’ve lost its practical relevance, over demolishing and building new. The question that still remains is – Why? If heritage conservation is to be seen as an economically viable and realistic building activity, it must shed its image of being an ‘elitist, cultural pursuit’ in the eyes of the common person. Through contextual studies of historic areas in Ahmedabad and Calcutta, reading of theoretical pieces on the subject and conversations with multiple stakeholders, this study intended to justify the act of heritage conservation to the common person – one who is assumed to have no particular sensitivity towards architectural or cultural value, and rather questions what these buildings tangibly bring to the table. The theoretical frameworks (taken from literature) are then tested through actual case studies in Indian cities, followed by an elaborate inference on the subject.

Keywords: heritage values, heritage houses, private ownership, unprotected heritage

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Authors: Guilherme M. Pereira, Kimmo Teinïla, Danilo Custódio, Risto Hillamo, Célia Alves, Pérola de C. Vasconcellos

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South American large cities often present serious air pollution problems and their atmosphere composition is influenced by a variety of emissions sources. The South American Emissions Megacities, and Climate project (SAEMC) has focused on the study of emissions and its influence on climate in the South American largest cities and it also included Lima (Peru) and Medellin (Colombia), sites where few studies of the genre were done. Lima is a coastal city with more than 8 million inhabitants and the second largest city in South America. Medellin is a 2.5 million inhabitants city and second largest city in Colombia; it is situated in a valley. The samples were collected in quartz fiber filters in high volume samplers (Hi-Vol), in 24 hours of sampling. The samples were collected in intensive campaigns in both sites, in July, 2010. Several species were determined in the aerosol samples of Lima and Medellin. Organic and elemental carbon (OC and EC) in thermal-optical analysis; biomass burning tracers (levoglucosan - Lev, mannosan - Man and galactosan - Gal) in high-performance anion exchange ion chromatography with mass spectrometer detection; water soluble ions in ion chromatography. The average particulate matter was similar for both campaigns, the PM10 concentrations were above the recommended by World Health Organization (50 µg m⁻³ – daily limit) in 40% of the samples in Medellin, while in Lima it was above that value in 15% of the samples. The average total ions concentration was higher in Lima (17450 ng m⁻³ in Lima and 3816 ng m⁻³ in Medellin) and the average concentrations of sodium and chloride were higher in this site, these species also had better correlations (Pearson’s coefficient = 0,63); suggesting a higher influence of marine aerosol in the site due its location in the coast. Sulphate concentrations were also much higher at Lima site; which may be explained by a higher influence of marine originated sulphate. However, the OC, EC and monosaccharides average concentrations were higher at Medellin site; this may be due to the lower dispersion of pollutants due to the site’s location and a larger influence of biomass burning sources. The levoglucosan average concentration was 95 ng m⁻³ for Medellin and 16 ng m⁻³ and OC was well correlated with levoglucosan (Pearson’s coefficient = 0,86) in Medellin; suggesting a higher influence of biomass burning over the organic aerosol in this site. The Lev/Man ratio is often related to the type of biomass burned and was close to 18, similar to the observed in previous studies done at biomass burning impacted sites in the Amazon region; backward trajectories also suggested the transport of aerosol from that region. Biomass burning appears to have a larger influence on the air quality in Medellin, in addition the vehicular emissions; while Lima showed a larger influence of marine aerosol during the study period.

Keywords: aerosol transport, atmospheric particulate matter, biomass burning, SAEMC project

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Authors: Lee Yan Nian

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Safety investigation is different from an administrative investigation in that the former is conducted by an independent agency and the purpose of such investigation is to prevent accidents in the future and not to apportion blame or determine liability. Before October 2018, Taiwan railway occurrences were investigated by local supervisory authority. Characteristics of this kind of investigation are that enforcement actions, such as administrative penalty, are usually imposed on those persons or units involved in occurrence. On October 21, 2018, due to a Taiwan Railway accident, which caused 18 fatalities and injured another 267, establishing an agency to independently investigate this catastrophic railway accident was quickly decided. The Taiwan Transportation Safety Board (TTSB) was then established on August 1, 2019 to take charge of investigating major aviation, marine, railway and highway occurrences. The objective of this study is to assess the effectiveness of safety investigations conducted by the TTSB. In this study, the major railway occurrence investigation reports published by the TTSB are used for modeling and analysis. According to the classification of railway occurrences investigated by the TTSB, accident types of Taiwan railway occurrences can be categorized into: derailment, fire, Signal Passed at Danger and others. A Causal Factor Analysis System (CFAS) developed by the TTSB is used to identify the influencing causal factors and their causal relationships in the investigation reports. All terminologies used in the CFAS are equivalent to the Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) terminologies, except for “Technical Events” which was added to classify causal factors resulting from mechanical failure. Accordingly, the Bayesian network structure of each occurrence category is established based on the identified causal factors in the CFAS. In the Bayesian networks, the prior probabilities of identified causal factors are obtained from the number of times in the investigation reports. Conditional Probability Table of each parent node is determined from domain experts’ experience and judgement. The resulting networks are quantitatively assessed under different scenarios to evaluate their forward predictions and backward diagnostic capabilities. Finally, the established Bayesian network of derailment is assessed using investigation reports of the same accident which was investigated by the TTSB and the local supervisory authority respectively. Based on the assessment results, findings of the administrative investigation is more closely tied to errors of front line personnel than to organizational related factors. Safety investigation can identify not only unsafe acts of individual but also in-depth causal factors of organizational influences. The results show that the proposed methodology can identify differences between safety investigation and administrative investigation. Therefore, effective intervention strategies in associated areas can be better addressed for safety improvement and future accident prevention through safety investigation.

Keywords: administrative investigation, bayesian network, causal factor analysis system, safety investigation

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Authors: Marina Shargorodsky

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Aim: Gestational weight gain (GWG) has been related to altering future weight-gain curves and increased risks of obesity later in life. Obesity may contribute to vascular atherosclerotic changes as well as excess cardiovascular morbidity and mortality observed in these patients. Noninvasive arterial testing, such as ultrasonographic measurement of carotid IMT, is considered a surrogate for systemic atherosclerotic disease burden and is predictive of cardiovascular events in asymptomatic individuals as well as recurrent events in patients with known cardiovascular disease. Currently, there is no consistent evidence regarding the vascular impact of excessive GWG. The present study was designed to investigate the impact of GWG on early atherosclerotic changes during late pregnancy, using intima-media thickness, as well as placental vascular circulation and inflammatory lesions and pregnancy outcomes. Methods: The study group consisted of 59 pregnant women who gave birth and underwent a placental histopathological examination at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Edith Wolfson Medical Center, Israel, in 2019. According to the IOM guidelines the study group has been divided into two groups: Group 1 included 32 women with pregnancy weight gain within recommended range; Group 2 included 27 women with excessive weight gain during pregnancy. The IMT was measured from non-diseased intimal and medial wall layers of the carotid artery on both sides, visualized by high-resolution 7.5 MHz ultrasound (Apogee CX Color, ATL). Placental histology subdivided placental findings to lesions consistent with maternal vascular and fetal vascular malperfusion according to the criteria of the Society for Pediatric Pathology, subdividing placental findings to lesions consistent with maternal vascular and fetal vascular malperfusion, as well as the inflammatory response of maternal and fetal origin. Results: IMT levels differed between groups and were significantly higher in Group 1 compared to Group 2 (0.7+/-0.1 vs 0.6+/-0/1, p=0.028). Multiple linear regression analysis of IMT included variables based on their associations in univariate analyses with a backward approach. Included in the model were pre-gestational BMI, HDL cholesterol and fasting glucose. The model was significant (p=0.001) and correctly classified 64.7% of study patients. In this model, pre-pregnancy BMI remained a significant independent predictor of subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by IMT (OR 4.314, 95% CI 0.0599-0.674, p=0.044). Among placental lesions related to fetal vascular malperfusion, villous changes consistent with fetal thrombo-occlusive disease (FTOD) were significantly higher in Group 1 than in Group 2, p=0.034). In Conclusion, the present study demonstrated that excessive weight gain during pregnancy is associated with an adverse effect on early stages of subclinical atherosclerosis, placental vascular circulation and neonatal complications. The precise mechanism for these vascular changes, as well as the overall clinical impact of weight control during pregnancy on IMT, placental vascular circulation as well as pregnancy outcomes, deserves further investigation.

Keywords: obesity, pregnancy, complications, weight gain

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Authors: Zafar Tabrez, Nizamuddin Khan

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Agriculture in India in the pre-green revolution period was mostly controlled by terrain, climate and edaphic factors. But after the introduction of innovative factors and technological inputs, green revolution occurred and agricultural scene witnessed great change. In the development of India’s agriculture, speedy, and extensive introduction of technological change is one of the crucial factors. The technological change consists of adoption of farming techniques such as use of fertilisers, pesticides and fungicides, improved variety of seeds, modern agricultural implements, improved irrigation facilities, contour bunding for the conservation of moisture and soil, which are developed through research and calculated to bring about diversification and increase of production and greater economic return to the farmers. The green revolution in India took place during late 60s, equipped with technological inputs like high yielding varieties seeds, assured irrigation as well as modern machines and implements. Initially the revolution started in Punjab, Haryana and western Uttar Pradesh. With the efforts of government, agricultural planners, as well as policy makers, the modern technocratic agricultural development scheme was also implemented and introduced in backward and marginal regions of the country later on. Agriculture sector occupies the centre stage of India’s social security and overall economic welfare. The country has attained self-sufficiency in food grain production and also has sufficient buffer stock. Our first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru said ‘everything else can wait but not agriculture’. There is still a continuous change in the technological inputs and cropping patterns. Keeping these points in view, author attempts to investigate extensively the mechanization of agriculture and the change by selecting western Trans-Ghaghara plain as a case study and block a unit of the study. It includes the districts of Gonda, Balrampur, Bahraich and Shravasti which incorporate 44 blocks. It is based on secondary sources of data by blocks for the year 1997 and 2007. It may be observed that there is a wide range of variations and the change in farm mechanization, i.e., agricultural machineries such as ploughs, wooden and iron, advanced harrow and cultivator, advanced thrasher machine, sprayers, advanced sowing instrument, and tractors etc. It may be further noted that due to continuous decline in size of land holdings and outflux of people for the same nature of works or to be employed in non-agricultural sectors, the magnitude and direction of agricultural systems are affected in the study area which is one of the marginalized regions of Uttar Pradesh, India.

Keywords: agriculture, technological inputs, farm mechanization, food production, cropping pattern

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Authors: Aritra Majumdar

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While organizations strive to expand their new customer base, retaining existing relationships is a key aspect of improving overall profitability and also showcasing how successful an organization is in holding on to its customers. It is an experimentally proven fact that the lion’s share of profit always comes from existing customers. Hence seamless management of renewal journeys across different channels goes a long way in improving trust in the brand. From a quality assurance standpoint, time travel testing provides an approach to both business and technology teams to enhance the customer experience when they look to extend their partnership with the organization for a defined phase of time. This whitepaper will focus on key pillars of time travel testing: time travel planning, time travel data preparation, and enterprise automation. Along with that, it will call out some of the best practices and common accelerator implementation ideas which are generic across verticals like healthcare, insurance, etc. In this abstract document, a high-level snapshot of these pillars will be provided. Time Travel Planning: The first step of setting up a time travel testing roadmap is appropriate planning. Planning will include identifying the impacted systems that need to be time traveled backward or forward depending on the business requirement, aligning time travel with other releases, frequency of time travel testing, preparedness for handling renewal issues in production after time travel testing is done and most importantly planning for test automation testing during time travel testing. Time Travel Data Preparation: One of the most complex areas in time travel testing is test data coverage. Aligning test data to cover required customer segments and narrowing it down to multiple offer sequencing based on defined parameters are keys for successful time travel testing. Another aspect is the availability of sufficient data for similar combinations to support activities like defect retesting, regression testing, post-production testing (if required), etc. This section will talk about the necessary steps for suitable data coverage and sufficient data availability from a time travel testing perspective. Enterprise Automation: Time travel testing is never restricted to a single application. The workflow needs to be validated in the downstream applications to ensure consistency across the board. Along with that, the correctness of offers across different digital channels needs to be checked in order to ensure a smooth customer experience. This section will talk about the focus areas of enterprise automation and how automation testing can be leveraged to improve the overall quality without compromising on the project schedule. Along with the above-mentioned items, the white paper will elaborate on the best practices that need to be followed during time travel testing and some ideas pertaining to accelerator implementation. To sum it up, this paper will be written based on the real-time experience author had on time travel testing. While actual customer names and program-related details will not be disclosed, the paper will highlight the key learnings which will help other teams to implement time travel testing successfully.

Keywords: time travel planning, time travel data preparation, enterprise automation, best practices, accelerator implementation ideas

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Authors: Atsuko Okazaki, Jurg Ott

Abstract:

Some genetic diseases (‘digenic traits’) are due to the interaction between two DNA variants. For example, certain forms of Retinitis Pigmentosa (a genetic form of blindness) occur in the presence of two mutant variants, one in the ROM1 gene and one in the RDS gene, while the occurrence of only one of these mutant variants leads to a completely normal phenotype. Detecting such digenic traits by genetic methods is difficult. A common approach to finding disease-causing variants is to compare 100,000s of variants between individuals with a trait (cases) and those without the trait (controls). Such genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have been very successful but hinge on genetic effects of single variants, that is, there should be a difference in allele or genotype frequencies between cases and controls at a disease-causing variant. Frequent pattern mining (FPM) methods offer an avenue at detecting digenic traits even in the absence of single-variant effects. The idea is to enumerate pairs of genotypes (genotype patterns) with each of the two genotypes originating from different variants that may be located at very different genomic positions. What is needed is for genotype patterns to be significantly more common in cases than in controls. Let Y = 2 refer to cases and Y = 1 to controls, with X denoting a specific genotype pattern. We are seeking association rules, ‘X → Y’, with high confidence, P(Y = 2|X), significantly higher than the proportion of cases, P(Y = 2) in the study. Clearly, generally available FPM methods are very suitable for detecting disease-associated genotype patterns. We use fpgrowth as the basic FPM algorithm and built a framework around it to enumerate high-frequency digenic genotype patterns and to evaluate their statistical significance by permutation analysis. Application to a published dataset on opioid dependence furnished results that could not be found with classical GWAS methodology. There were 143 cases and 153 healthy controls, each genotyped for 82 variants in eight genes of the opioid system. The aim was to find out whether any of these variants were disease-associated. The single-variant analysis did not lead to significant results. Application of our FPM implementation resulted in one significant (p < 0.01) genotype pattern with both genotypes in the pattern being heterozygous and originating from two variants on different chromosomes. This pattern occurred in 14 cases and none of the controls. Thus, the pattern seems quite specific to this form of substance abuse and is also rather predictive of disease. An algorithm called Multifactor Dimension Reduction (MDR) was developed some 20 years ago and has been in use in human genetics ever since. This and our algorithms share some similar properties, but they are also very different in other respects. The main difference seems to be that our algorithm focuses on patterns of genotypes while the main object of inference in MDR is the 3 × 3 table of genotypes at two variants.

Keywords: digenic traits, DNA variants, epistasis, statistical genetics

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Authors: Lishuang Ma

Abstract:

Charge transfer (CT) complex, also known as Electron donor-acceptor (EDA) complex, has received attentions increasingly in the field of synthetic chemistry community, due to the CT complex can absorb the visible light through the intermolecular charge transfer excited states, various of catalyst-free photochemical transformations under mild visible-light conditions. However, a number of fundamental questions are still ambiguous, such as the origin of visible light absorption, the photochemical and photophysical properties of the CT complex, as well as the detailed mechanism of the radical coupling pathways mediated by CT complex. Since these are critical factors for target-specific design and synthesis of more new-type CT complexes. To this end, theoretical investigations were performed in our group to answer these questions based on multiconfigurational perturbation theory. The photo-induced fluoroalkylation reactions are mediated by CT complexes, which are formed by the association of an acceptor of perfluoroalkyl halides RF−X (X = Br, I) and a suitable donor molecule such as β-naphtholate anion, were chosen as a paradigm example in this work. First, spectrum simulations were carried out by both CASPT2//CASSCF/PCM and TD-DFT/PCM methods. The computational results showed that the broadening spectra in visible light range (360-550nm) of the CT complexes originate from the 1(σπ*) excitation, accompanied by an intermolecular electron transfer, which was also found closely related to the aggregate states of the donor and acceptor. Moreover, from charge translocation analysis, the CT complex that showed larger charge transfer in the round state would exhibit smaller charge transfer in excited stated of 1(σπ*), causing blue shift relatively. Then, the excited-state potential energy surface (PES) was calculated at CASPT2//CASSCF(12,10)/ PCM level of theory to explore the photophysical properties of the CT complexes. The photo-induced C-X (X=I, Br) bond cleavage was found to occur in the triplet state, which is accessible through a fast intersystem crossing (ISC) process that is controlled by the strong spin-orbit coupling resulting from the heavy iodine and bromine atoms. Importantly, this rapid fragmentation process can compete and suppress the backward electron transfer (BET) event, facilitating the subsequent effective photochemical transformations. Finally, the reaction pathways of the radical coupling were also inspected, which showed that the radical chain propagation pathway could easy to accomplish with a small energy barrier no more than 3.0 kcal/mol, which is the key factor that promote the efficiency of the photochemical reactions induced by CT complexes. In conclusion, theoretical investigations were performed to explore the photophysical and photochemical properties of the CT complexes, as well as the mechanism of radical coupling reactions mediated by CT complex. The computational results and findings in this work can provide some critical insights into mechanism-based design for more new-type EDA complexes

Keywords: charge transfer complex, electron transfer, multiconfigurational perturbation theory, radical coupling

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