Search results for: Markov chain Monte Carlo method

Authors: Mrigank Sahai, R. Sri Raghu

Abstract:

This paper presents the modelling of rocket exhaust plume flow field and exhaust plume impingement in vacuum for the liquid apogee engine and attitude control thrusters of the lunar lander. Analytic formulations for rarefied gas kinetics has been taken as reference for modelling the plume flow field. The plume has been modelled as high speed, collision-less, axi-symmetric gas jet, expanding into vacuum and impinging at a normally set diffusive circular plate. Specular reflections have not been considered for the present study. Different parameters such as number density, temperature, pressure, flow velocity, heat flux etc., have been calculated and have been plotted against and compared to Direct Simulation Monte Carlo results. These analyses have provided important information for the placement of critical optical instruments and design of optimal thermal insulation for the hardware that may come in contact with the thruster exhaust.

Keywords: collision-less gas, lunar lander, plume impingement, rarefied exhaust plume

Procedia PDF Downloads 254

Authors: Ameen Alawneh

Abstract:

The cost of material management across the supply chain represents a major contributor to the overall cost of goods in many companies both manufacturing and service sectors. This fact combined with the fierce competition make supply chains more efficient and cost effective. It also requires the companies to improve the quality of the products and services, increase the effectiveness of supply chain operations, focus on customer needs, reduce wastes and costs across the supply chain. As a heavy industry, steel manufacturing companies in particular are nowadays required to be more environmentally conscious due to their contribution to air, soil, and water pollution that results from emissions and wastes across their supply chains. Steel companies are increasingly looking for methods to reduce or cost cut in the operations and provide extra value to their customers to stay competitive under the current low margins. In this research we develop a green framework model for the sustainability of a steel company supply chain using Mixed integer Linear programming.

Keywords: Supply chain, Mixed Integer linear programming, heavy industry, water pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 433

Authors: Athirat Intajorn

Abstract:

According to the ASEAN free trade areas (AFTA), Thailand has applied the AFTA agreement for reducing tariffs and reflecting changes in business processes. The reflection of changes in agribusiness processes, in particular, has accumulated as production costs for producers. Palm Oil industry has become an important industry to Thailand economic. Thailand currently ranks the 3rd in the world for Crude Palm Oil CPO. Therefore, the scope of this paper presents a research framework to investigate the supply chain management practices in Thailand palm oil industry. This research is limit to literature review. And the proposed framework identifies the criteria of supply chain management for Thailand palm oil industry in order for linkage among entities within logistics management involving plantation, mill, collection port, refinery and cookie from the data utilization. The Supply Chain Management Practices in Thailand Palm Oil Industry framework has a somewhat different view due to the high complexity of agribusiness logistics management.

Keywords: supply chain management, practice, palm oil industry, Thailand palm oil industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 284

Authors: Serzhan Ashirov, Dana Nour, Rafat Rob, Khaled Alotaibi

Abstract:

There has been a fast growth in the introduction and use of communications, information, monitoring, and sensing technologies. The new technologies are making their way to the Industrial Control Systems as embedded in products, software applications, IT services, or commissioned to enable integration and automation of increasingly global supply chains. As a result, the lines that separated the physical, digital, and cyber world have diminished due to the vast implementation of the new, disruptive digital technologies. The variety and increased use of these technologies introduce many cybersecurity risks affecting cyber-resilience of the supply chain, both in terms of the product or service delivered to a customer and members of the supply chain operation. US department of energy considers supply chain in the IR4 space to be the weakest link in cybersecurity. The IR4 identified the digitization of the field devices, followed by digitalization that eventually moved through the digital transformation space with little care for the new introduced cybersecurity risks. This paper will examine the best methodologies for securing the electrical substations from cybersecurity attacks due to supply chain risks, and due to digitization effort. SCADA systems are the most vulnerable part of the power system infrastructure due to digitization and due to the weakness and vulnerabilities in the supply chain security. The paper will discuss in details how create a secure supply chain methodology, secure substations, and mitigate the risks due to digitization

Keywords: cybersecurity, supply chain methodology, secure substation, digitization

Procedia PDF Downloads 47

Authors: Maria Jose Granero Paris, Ana Isabel Jimenez Zarco, Agustin Pablo Alvarez Herranz

Abstract:

In the industrial sector the collaboration along the supply chain is key especially in order to develop product, production methods or process innovations. The access to resources and knowledge not being available inside the company, the achievement of cost competitive solutions, the reduction of the time required to innovate are some of the benefits linked with the collaboration with suppliers. The big industrial manufacturers have a long tradition to collaborate with their suppliers to develop new products in the developed countries. Since they have increased their global supply chains and global sourcing activities, the objective of the research is to analyse if the same best practices, way of working, experiences, information technology tools, governance methodologies are applied when collaborating with suppliers in the developed world or in developing countries. Most of the current research focuses to analyse the Supply Chain Collaboration in the developed countries and in recent years the number of publications related to the Supply Chain Collaboration in developing countries has increased, but there is still a lack of research comparing both and analysing the similarities, differences and key success factors among the Supply Chain Collaboration practices in developed and developing countries. With this gap in mind, the research under preparation will focus on the following goals: -Identify the most important elements required for a successful supply chain collaboration in the developed and developing countries. -Set up the optimal governance framework to manage the supply chain collaboration in the developed and developing countries. -Define some recommendations about required improvements in the current supply chain collaboration business relationship practices in place. Following the case methodology we will analyze the way manufacturers and suppliers collaborate in the development of new products, production methods or process innovations and in the set up of new global supply chains in two industries with different level of technology intensity and collaboration history being the automotive and aerospace industries.

Keywords: global supply chain networks, Supply Chain Collaboration, supply chain governance, supply chain performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 576

Authors: Hadi Badri Ahmadi, Xuping Wang

Abstract:

Due to strict regulations and public awareness, corporations should develop policies to effectively decrease the negative environmental effects of their products and enhance their supply chain environmental sustainability. Assessment of environmental issues in the context of many industries has been studied in the previous literature. However, Iran cement industry has received less attention from researchers. Therefore, in this paper, we apply a Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) approach to assess the relationships among green metrics of Iran cement industry supply chain under fuzzy environment. The study findings provide considerable insight for cement industry managers and experts in order to enhance the environmental sustainability of their supply chain and move towards sustainable development.

Keywords: green supply chain, DEMATEL, fuzzy set theory, environmental sustainability, sustainable development, cement industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: R. Setino, I. M. Ambe, J. A Badenhorst-Weiss

Abstract:

The South African government supply chain management system is not adequately implemented in State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). There are weaknesses in the SOEs SCM enablers, strategies and policies. In addition, top management of SOEs still do not see SCM as strategic enough to deserve their attention, and therefore, there is very little support from top management, thus making it even difficult for SCM practitioners to execute their day to day functions, let alone delivering the letter and spirit of the relevant legislations. Supply chain strategies lack buy in from the top, and as a result senior SCM practitioners has not been involved in the corporate strategy. This has resulted in supply chain and corporate strategies being misaligned. Due to service delivery backlog, high level of corruption and continuous strikes across the country for better services it is inevitable that government leaders be more strategic about how South Africa can use SCM as a tool to improve service delivery. Consequently, there is a need to close the gap between the strategic level dealt by top management and the application of operational SCM concepts: the use of SCM concepts and, therefore, supply chain strategies – should be aligned with the corporate and business strategies in order to ensure the achievement of top level business objectives. This paper aims to explore supply chain practices in State Owned Enterprises (SOEs). The paper based on a conceptual review provides the status, trends and development and suggests a framework for aligning supply chain strategies and organizational strategies in an SOE environment.

Keywords: alignment, strategies, state owned enterprises, supply chain management, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Chieh Lee

Abstract:

Today, supply chain managers face extensive disruptions in raw material pricing, transportation block, and quality issue due to product complexity. While digitalization might help managers to mitigate the disruption risk and increase supply chain resilience by sharing information between sellers and buyers through the supply chain, entities are reluctant to build such a system. The main reason is it is not clear what information should be shared and who has access to the stored information. In this research, we propose a smart contract built by blockchain technology. This contract helps both buyer and seller to identify the type of information, the access to the information, and how to trace the information. This contract helps managers control their orders through the supply chain and address any disruption they see fit. Furthermore, with the same smart contract, the supplier can track the production process of an order and increase production efficiency by eliminating waste.

Keywords: blockchain, production process, smart contract, supply chain resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Yuan Tian, Benhe Gao

Abstract:

This paper aims to investigate a two stage supply chain of one leading supplier and one following retailer that experiences two factors perturbation out of supplier's production cost, retailer's marginal cost and retail price in stochastic demand environment. Granted that risk neutral condition has long been discussed, little attention has been given to disruptions under the premise of risk neutral supplier and risk aversion retailer. We establish the optimal order quantity and revealed the profit distribution coefficient in risk-neutral static model, make adjustment under disruption scenario, and then select utility function method for risk aversion model. Using buy-back contract policy, the improvement of parameters can achieve channel coordination where Pareto optimal is realized.

Keywords: supply chain coordination, disruption management, buy-back contract, lose aversion

Procedia PDF Downloads 309

Authors: Yasaman Ashrafi, Stephen Kajewski, Annastiina Silvennoinen, Madhav Nepal

Abstract:

Mega projects either in construction, urban development or energy sectors are one of the key drivers that build the foundation of wealth and modern civilizations in regions and nations. Such projects require economic justification and substantial capital investment, often derived from individual and corporate investors as well as governments. Cost overruns and time delays in these mega projects demands a new approach to more accurately predict project costs and establish realistic financial plans. The significance of this paper is that the cost efficiency of megaprojects will improve and decrease cost overruns. This research will assist Project Managers (PMs) to make timely and appropriate decisions about both cost and outcomes of ongoing projects. This research, therefore, examines the oil and gas industry where most mega projects apply the classic methods of Cost Performance Index (CPI) and Schedule Performance Index (SPI) and rely on project data to forecast cost and time. Because these projects are always overrun in cost and time even at the early phase of the project, the probabilistic methods of Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Bayesian Adaptive Forecasting method were used to predict project cost at completion of projects. The current theoretical and mathematical models which forecast the total expected cost and project completion date, during the execution phase of an ongoing project will be evaluated. Earned Value Management (EVM) method is unable to predict cost at completion of a project accurately due to the lack of enough detailed project information especially in the early phase of the project. During the project execution phase, the Bayesian adaptive forecasting method incorporates predictions into the actual performance data from earned value management and revises pre-project cost estimates, making full use of the available information. The outcome of this research is to improve the accuracy of both cost prediction and final duration. This research will provide a warning method to identify when current project performance deviates from planned performance and crates an unacceptable gap between preliminary planning and actual performance. This warning method will support project managers to take corrective actions on time.

Keywords: cost forecasting, earned value management, project control, project management, risk analysis, simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Mona Baniahmadi, Saied Haghanifar

Abstract:

Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) is regarded as a promising technology for the optimization of supply chain processes since it improves manufacturing and retail operations from forecasting demand for planning, managing inventory, and distribution. This study precisely aims at learning to know the RFID technology and at explaining how it can concretely be used for supply chain management and how it can help improving it in the case of Hejrat Company which is located in Iran and works on the distribution of medical drugs and cosmetics. This study uses some statistical analysis to calculate the expected benefits of an integrated RFID system on supply chain obtained through competitive advantages increases with decreasing cost factor. The study investigates how the cost of storage process, labor cost, the cost of missing goods, inventory management optimization, on-time delivery, order cost, lost sales and supply process optimization affect the performance of the integrated RFID supply chain regarding cost factors and provides a competitive advantage.

Keywords: cost, competitive advantage, radio frequency identification, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Jinsiang Shaw, Sheng-Xiang Xu

Abstract:

This paper presents the development of an autonomous automated guided vehicle (AGV) with a robot arm attached on top of it within the framework of robot operation system (ROS). ROS can provide libraries and tools, including hardware abstraction, device drivers, libraries, visualizers, message-passing, package management, etc. For this reason, this AGV can provide automatic navigation and parts transportation and pick-and-place task using robot arm for typical industrial production line use. More specifically, this AGV will be controlled by an on-board host computer running ROS software. Command signals for vehicle and robot arm control and measurement signals from various sensors are transferred to respective microcontrollers. Users can operate the AGV remotely through the TCP / IP protocol and perform SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping). An RGBD camera and LIDAR sensors are installed on the AGV, using these data to perceive the environment. For SLAM, Gmapping is used to construct the environment map by Rao-Blackwellized particle filter; and AMCL method (Adaptive Monte Carlo localization) is employed for mobile robot localization. In addition, current AGV position and orientation can be visualized by ROS toolkit. As for robot navigation and obstacle avoidance, A* for global path planning and dynamic window approach for local planning are implemented. The developed ROS AGV with a robot arm on it has been experimented in the university factory. A 2-D and 3-D map of the factory were successfully constructed by the SLAM method. Base on this map, robot navigation through the factory with and without dynamic obstacles are shown to perform well. Finally, pick-and-place of parts using robot arm and ensuing delivery in the factory by the mobile robot are also accomplished.

Keywords: automated guided vehicle, navigation, robot operation system, Simultaneous Localization and Mapping

Procedia PDF Downloads 132

Authors: Jingyuan Hu, Zhandong Liu

Abstract:

CRISPR genome editing technology has transformed molecular biology by accurately targeting and altering an organism’s DNA. Despite the state-of-art precision of CRISPR genome editing, the imprecise mutation outcome and off-target effects present considerable risk, potentially leading to unintended genetic changes. Targeted deep sequencing, combined with bioinformatics sequence alignment, can detect such unwanted mutations. Nevertheless, the classical method, Needleman-Wunsch (NW) algorithm may produce false alignment outcomes, resulting in inaccurate mutation identification. The key to precisely identifying CRISPR-induced mutations lies in determining optimal parameters for the sequence alignment algorithm. Hidden Markov models (HMM) are ideally suited for this task, offering flexibility across CRISPR systems by leveraging forward-backward algorithms for parameter estimation. In this study, we introduce CRISPR-HMM, a statistical software to precisely call CRISPR-induced mutations. We demonstrate that the software significantly improves precision in identifying CRISPR-induced mutations compared to NW-based alignment, thereby enhancing the overall understanding of the CRISPR gene-editing process.

Keywords: CRISPR, HMM, sequence alignment, gene editing

Procedia PDF Downloads 32

Authors: Buti Suryabrahmam, V. A. Raghunathan

Abstract:

We study the effect of short chain alcohols on mechanical properties of saturated lipid bilayers in the fluid phase. The Bending rigidity of 1,2-dimyristoyl-sn-glycero-3-phosphocholine (DMPC) membrane was measured at 28 °C by employing Vesicle Fluctuation Analysis technique. The concentration and chain length (n) of alcohol in the buffer solution were varied from 0 to 1.5 M and from 2 to 8 respectively. We observed a non-linear reduction in the bending rigidity from ~17×10⁻²⁰ J to ~10×10⁻²⁰ J, for all chain lengths of alcohols used in our experiment. We observed approximately three orders of the concentration difference between ethanol and octanol, to show the similar reduction in the bending values. We attribute this phenomenon to thinning of the bilayer due to the adsorption of alcohols at the bilayer-water interface.

Keywords: alcohols, bending rigidity, DMPC, lipid bilayers

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Alina Muradyan, Lina Babayan, Arsen Nanyan, Gohar Galstyan, Vigen Khachatryan

Abstract:

We present a photometric method for identifying stars, galaxies and quasars in multi-color surveys, which uses a library of ∼> 65000 color templates for comparison with observed objects. The method aims for extracting the information content of object colors in a statistically correct way, and performs a classification as well as a redshift estimation for galaxies and quasars in a unified approach based on the same probability density functions. For the redshift estimation, we employ an advanced version of the Minimum Error Variance estimator which determines the redshift error from the redshift dependent probability density function itself. The method was originally developed for the Calar Alto Deep Imaging Survey (CADIS), but is now used in a wide variety of survey projects. We checked its performance by spectroscopy of CADIS objects, where the method provides high reliability (6 errors among 151 objects with R < 24), especially for the quasar selection, and redshifts accurate within σz ≈ 0.03 for galaxies and σz ≈ 0.1 for quasars. For an optimization of future survey efforts, a few model surveys are compared, which are designed to use the same total amount of telescope time but different sets of broad-band and medium-band filters. Their performance is investigated by Monte-Carlo simulations as well as by analytic evaluation in terms of classification and redshift estimation. If photon noise were the only error source, broad-band surveys and medium-band surveys should perform equally well, as long as they provide the same spectral coverage. In practice, medium-band surveys show superior performance due to their higher tolerance for calibration errors and cosmic variance. Finally, we discuss the relevance of color calibration and derive important conclusions for the issues of library design and choice of filters. The calibration accuracy poses strong constraints on an accurate classification, which are most critical for surveys with few, broad and deeply exposed filters, but less severe for surveys with many, narrow and less deep filters.

Keywords: VO, ArVO, DFBS, FITS, image processing, data analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 56

Authors: Hiroyuki Aoki, Toru Asada, Tomomi Tanii

Abstract:

The properties of a spin-cast film of a polymer material are different from those in the bulk material because the polymer chains are frozen in an un-equilibrium state due to the rapid evaporation of the solvent. However, there has been little information on the un-equilibrated conformation and dynamics in a spin-cast film at the single chain level. The real-space observation of individual chains would provide direct information to discuss the morphology and dynamics of single polymer chains. The recent development of super-resolution fluorescence microscopy methods allows the conformational analysis of single polymer chain. In the current study, the conformation of a polymer chain in a spin-cast film by the super-resolution microscopy. Poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) with the molecular weight of 2.2 x 10^6 was spin-cast onto a glass substrate from toluene and chloroform. For the super-resolution fluorescence imaging, a small amount of the PMMA labeled by rhodamine spiroamide dye was added. The radius of gyration (Rg) was evaluated from the super-resolution fluorescence image of each PMMA chain. The mean-square-root of Rg was 48.7 and 54.0 nm in the spin-cast films prepared from the toluene and chloroform solutions, respectively. On the other hand, the chain dimension in a bulk state (a thermally annealed 10- μm-thick sample) was observed to be 43.1 nm. This indicates that the PMMA chain in the spin-cast film takes an expanded conformation compared to the unperturbed chain and that the chain dimension is dependent on the solvent quality. In a good solvent, the PMMA chain has an expanded conformation by the excluded volume effect. The polymer chain is frozen before the relaxation from an un-equilibrated expanded conformation to an unperturbed one by the rapid solvent evaporation.

Keywords: chain conformation, polymer thin film, spin-coating, super-resolution optical microscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 269

Authors: Gabriel Calvo, Carmen Armero, Luigi Spezia

Abstract:

A basketball player is said to have a hot hand if his/her performance is better than expected in different periods of time. A way to deal with this phenomenon is to make use of latent variables, which can indicate whether the player is ‘on fire’ or not. This work aims to model the hot hand phenomenon through a Bayesian hidden Markov model (HMM) with two states (cold and hot) and two different probability of success depending on the corresponding hidden state. This task is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study. The simulated data sets emulate the field goal attempts in an NBA season from different profile players. This model can be a powerful tool to assess the ‘streakiness’ of each player, and it provides information about the general performance of the players during the match. Finally, the Bayesian HMM allows computing the posterior probability of any type of streak.

Keywords: Bernoulli trials, field goals, latent variables, posterior distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 170

Authors: Cormac Reale, Luke J. Prendergast, Kenneth Gavin

Abstract:

While significant improvements have been made in axial pile design methods over recent years, the influence of soils natural variability has not been adequately accounted for within them. Soil variability is a crucial parameter to consider as it can account for large variations in pile capacity across the same site. This paper seeks to address this knowledge deficit, by demonstrating how soil spatial variability can be accommodated into existing cone penetration test (CPT) based pile design methods, in the form of layered non-homogeneous random fields. These random fields model the scope of a given property’s variance and define how it varies spatially. A Monte Carlo analysis of the pile will be performed taking into account parameter uncertainty and spatial variability, described using the measured scales of fluctuation. The results will be discussed in light of Eurocode 7 and the effect of spatial averaging on design capacities will be analysed.

Keywords: pile axial design, reliability, spatial variability, CPT

Procedia PDF Downloads 233

Authors: Mehmet Şimşek

Abstract:

In the rapidly changing market conditions, it is getting harder to survive without adapting new abilities. Technology and globalization have enabled foreign producers to enter into national markets, even local ones. For this reason there is now big competition among production companies for market share. Furthermore, competition has provided customer with broad range of options to choose from. To be able to survive in this environment, companies need to produce at low price and at high quality. The best way to succeed this is the efficient use of supply chain management that has started to get shaped by the needs of customers and the environment.

Keywords: cycle time, logistics, outsourcing, production, supply chain

Procedia PDF Downloads 470

Authors: Saghar Heidari

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the valuation problem of European continuous-installment options under Markov-modulated models with a partial differential equation approach. Due to the opportunity for continuing or stopping to pay installments, the valuation problem under regime-switching models can be formulated as coupled partial differential equations (CPDE) with free boundary features. To value the installment options, we express the truncated CPDE as a linear complementarity problem (LCP), then a finite element method is proposed to solve the resulted variational inequality. Under some appropriate assumptions, we establish the stability of the method and illustrate some numerical results to examine the rate of convergence and accuracy of the proposed method for the pricing problem under the regime-switching model.

Keywords: continuous-installment option, European option, regime-switching model, finite element method

Procedia PDF Downloads 125

Authors: Busra Gulnihan Dascıoglu, Ozalp Vayvay, Zeynep Tugce Kalender

Abstract:

Humanitarian supply chain management has gain popularity in recent years in research fields. The aim of this paper is to review the literature on humanitarian operations and crisis/disaster management from 2010 to latest researches in order to identify the current research and to provide direction for future research in this growing field. Researches are classified considering the research publication year, research fields. Articles from humanitarian supply chain management were reviewed, keywords were identified within a disaster management lifecycle framework. Research gaps are identified for future research areas.

Keywords: crisis, disaster, humanitarian supply chain management, relief operations

Procedia PDF Downloads 322

Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

Abstract:

In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

Procedia PDF Downloads 237

Authors: Sadaf Nawaz, Adnan Ahmed Khan, Asad Mahmood, Chaudhary Farrukh Javed

Abstract:

Classically, an energy detector is implemented in time domain (TD). However, frequency domain (FD) based energy detector has demonstrated an improved performance. This paper presents a comparison between the two approaches as to analyze their pros and cons. A detailed performance analysis of the classical TD energy-detector and the periodogram based detector is performed. Exact and approximate mathematical expressions for probability of false alarm (Pf) and probability of detection (Pd) are derived for both approaches. The derived expressions naturally lead to an analytical as well as intuitive reasoning for the improved performance of (Pf) and (Pd) in different scenarios. Our analysis suggests the dependence improvement on buffer sizes. Pf is improved in FD, whereas Pd is enhanced in TD based energy detectors. Finally, Monte Carlo simulations results demonstrate the analysis reached by the derived expressions.

Keywords: cognitive radio, energy detector, periodogram, spectrum sensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 359

Authors: M. Malekian, M. E. Heydari, M. Irani Estyar

Abstract:

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the most common sexually transmitted infection, which may lead to cervical cancer as the main cause of it. With early diagnosis and treatment in health care services, cervical cancer and its complications are considered to be preventable. This study was aimed to compare the efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity of Pap smear and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in detecting HPV. A literature search was performed in Google Scholar, PubMed and SID databases using the keywords 'human papillomavirus', 'pap smear' and 'polymerase change reaction' to identify studies comparing Pap smear and PCR methods for the detection. No restrictions were considered.10 studies were included in this review. All samples that were positive by pop smear were also positive by PCR. However, there were positive samples detected by PCR which was negative by pop smear and in all studies, many positive samples were missed by pop smear technique. Although The Pap smear had high specificity, PCR based HPV detection was more sensitive method and had the highest sensitivity. In order to promote the quality of detection and high achievement of the maximum results, PCR diagnostic methods in addition to the Pap smear are needed and Pap smear method should be combined with PCR techniques according to the high error rate of Pap smear in detection.

Keywords: human papillomavirus, cervical cancer, pap smear, polymerase chain reaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 114

Authors: Mohammad Y. Badiee, Saeed Golestani, Mir Saman Pishvaee

Abstract:

In recent years consumers and governments have been pushing companies to design their activities in such a way as to reduce negative environmental impacts by producing renewable product or threat free disposal policy more and more. It is therefore important to focus more accurate to the optimization of various aspect of total supply chain. Modeling a supply chain can be a challenging process due to the fact that there are a large number of factors that need to be considered in the model. The use of multi-objective optimization can lead to overcome those problems since more information is used when designing the model. Uncertainty is inevitable in real world. Considering uncertainty on parameters in addition to use multi-objectives are ways to give more flexibility to the decision making process since the process can take into account much more constraints and requirements. In this paper we demonstrate a stochastic scenario based robust model to cope with uncertainty in a closed-loop multi-objective supply chain. By applying the proposed model in a real world case, the power of proposed model in handling data uncertainty is shown.

Keywords: supply chain management, closed-loop supply chain, multi-objective optimization, goal programming, uncertainty, robust optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 402

Authors: Yuan-Jye Tseng, Yi-Shiuan Chen

Abstract:

The paper presented a sustainable design model for integrated evaluation of the design and supply chain of a product for the sustainable objectives. To design a product, there can be alternative ways to assign the detailed specifications to fulfill the same design objectives. In the design alternative cases, different material and manufacturing processes with various supply chain activities may be required for the production. Therefore, it is required to evaluate the different design cases based on the sustainable objectives. In this research, a closed-loop design model is developed by integrating the forward design model and reverse design model. From the supply chain point of view, the decisions in the forward design model are connected with the forward supply chain. The decisions in the reverse design model are connected with the reverse supply chain considering the sustainable objectives. The purpose of this research is to develop a mathematical model for analyzing the design cases by integrated evaluating the criteria in the closed-loop design and the closed-loop supply chain. The decision variables are built to represent the design cases of the forward design and reverse design. The cost parameters in a forward design include the costs of material and manufacturing processes. The cost parameters in a reverse design include the costs of recycling, disassembly, reusing, remanufacturing, and disposing. The mathematical model is formulated to minimize the total cost under the design constraints. In practical applications, the decisions of the mathematical model can be used for selecting a design case for the purpose of sustainable design of a product. An example product is demonstrated in the paper. The test result shows that the sustainable design model is useful for integrated evaluation of the design and the supply chain to achieve the sustainable objectives.

Keywords: closed-loop design, closed-loop supply chain, design evaluation, supply chain management, sustainable design model

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Naveed Ahmed Khan

Abstract:

The ever increasing importance of food industry cannot be denied and especially in the wake of escalating population and prices both in developing and developed nations. Thus, this issue demands the attention of researchers especially in the area of supply chain to identify cost diminution waste eliminating supply chain practices in the said industry. For such purpose the 'Dairy Division' of Engro Foods Limited, one of the biggest food companies in Pakistan was taken into consideration in a case study manner. Based on the literature review and interviews following variables were obtained: energy, losses, maintenance, taxes, and logistics. Having studied the said variables, it was concluded that management of relevant industries operating in a comparable environment need to efficiently manage two major areas: energy and taxes. On the other hand, similar kind of other organizations could be benefited by adopting the proficient supply chain practices being observed at dairy division of Engro foods limited.

Keywords: cost diminution, supply chain, dairy industry, Engro Foods Limited

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Pablo Enrique Sartor Del Giudice

Abstract:

Penalty shootouts often decide the outcome of important soccer matches. Although usually referred to as ”lotteries”, there is evidence that some national teams and clubs consistently perform better than others. The outcomes are therefore not explained just by mere luck, and therefore there are ways to improve the average performance of players, naturally at the expense of some sort of effort. In this article we study the payoff of player performance improvements in terms of the performance of the team as a whole. To do so we develop an analytical model with static individual performances, as well as Monte Carlo models that take into account the known influence of partial score and round number on individual performances. We find that within a range of usual values, the team performance improves above 70% faster than individual performances do. Using these models, we also estimate that the new ABBA penalty shootout ordering under test reduces almost all the known bias in favor of the first-shooting team under the current ABAB system.

Keywords: football, penalty shootouts, Montecarlo simulation, ABBA

Procedia PDF Downloads 150

Authors: Ma Chaoyang

Abstract:

With the acceleration of urbanization, old communities are facing renewal problems such as an aging material environment, declining living quality, and insufficient resilience. The once glorious old communities have become the most vulnerable areas in the city. Through a re-understanding of the ‘disaster chain’ and resilient communities, it is believed that considering the construction of resilient communities during community renewal is of great significance for promoting the sustainable development of communities. This article proposes renewal strategies for old communities based on the concept of preventing the occurrence of disaster chains. After analyzing the main demand characteristics of old communities, it proposes a reflection on improving community spatial safety resilience based on the ‘broken chain’ concept. In the four stages of ‘pre-disaster, mid-disaster, and post-disaster’, it elaborates that considering the occurrence of disaster chain in community renewal is the main content of research on spatial safety resilience construction and clarifies that community resilience is the idea and principle of responding with the process of disaster chain. The study focuses on the four dimensions of ‘pre-disaster, mid-disaster, and post-disaster’. This can provide ideas and references for resilience construction in community updates.

Keywords: community updates, disaster chain concept, community resilience, space environment

Procedia PDF Downloads 35

Authors: Amirhossein Mahlouji

Abstract:

In current business market, the concept of integrating environmental sustainability into long-term as well as routine operations is becoming a prevailing trend. Therefore, several stimuli are helping organization to move toward environmental sustainability. The concept of green supply chain management can help provide a strategic framework to develop a customized sustainability roadmap for each organization. In this regard, this paper is mainly focused on presenting a strategic decision making framework that will assist top level decision-making issues. This decision-making tool is based on literature and practice in the area of environmentally conscious business practices. The goal of this paper will be on the components and parameters of green supply chain management and how they serve as a baseline for the decision framework. Later, the applicability of a multi-input multi-output decision model (MIMO), will be analyzed as the analytical network process, within the green supply chain.

Keywords: Multi-attribute, Green Supply Chain, Environmental, Sustainability

Procedia PDF Downloads 135