Search results for: Grey prediction model

Authors: M. Ben Slimene, M.-S. Ouali

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Asset management of urban infrastructures faces a multitude of challenges that need to be overcome to obtain a reliable measurement of performances. Predicting the performance of slowly aging systems is one of those challenges, which helps the asset manager to investigate specific failure modes and to undertake the appropriate maintenance and rehabilitation interventions to avoid catastrophic failures as well as to optimize the maintenance costs. This article presents a methodology for modeling the deterioration of slowly degrading assets based on an operating history. It consists of extracting degradation profiles by grouping together assets that exhibit similar degradation sequences using an unsupervised classification technique derived from artificial intelligence. The obtained clusters are used to build the performance prediction models. This methodology is applied to a sample of a stormwater drainage culvert dataset.

Keywords: artificial Intelligence, clustering, culvert, regression model, slow degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Omar Dib, Rita Yaacoub, Luc Eveleigh, Nathalie Locquet, Hussein Dib, Ali Bassal, Christophe B. Y. Cordella

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The potential of front-face fluorescence coupled with chemometric techniques, namely parallel factor analysis (PARAFAC) and multiple linear regression (MLR) as a rapid analysis tool to characterize Lebanese virgin olive oils was investigated. Fluorescence fingerprints were acquired directly on 102 Lebanese virgin olive oil samples in the range of 280-540 nm in excitation and 280-700 nm in emission. A PARAFAC model with seven components was considered optimal with a residual of 99.64% and core consistency value of 78.65. The model revealed seven main fluorescence profiles in olive oil and was mainly associated with tocopherols, polyphenols, chlorophyllic compounds and oxidation/hydrolysis products. 23 MLR regression models based on PARAFAC scores were generated, the majority of which showed a good correlation coefficient (R > 0.7 for 12 predicted variables), thus satisfactory prediction performances. Acid values, peroxide values, and Delta K had the models with the highest predictions, with R values of 0.89, 0.84 and 0.81 respectively. Among fatty acids, linoleic and oleic acids were also highly predicted with R values of 0.8 and 0.76, respectively. Factors contributing to the model's construction were related to common fluorophores found in olive oil, mainly chlorophyll, polyphenols, and oxidation products. This study demonstrates the interest of front-face fluorescence as a promising tool for quality control of Lebanese virgin olive oils.

Keywords: front-face fluorescence, Lebanese virgin olive oils, multiple Linear regressions, PARAFAC analysis

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Authors: Saeedeh Bakhtiari, Johannes Depessemier, Stijn Hertelé, Wim De Waele

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High cycle fatigue comprising up to 10⁷ load cycles has been the subject of many studies, and the behavior of many materials was recorded adequately in this regime. However, many applications involve larger numbers of load cycles during the lifetime of machine components. In this ultra-high cycle regime, other failure mechanisms play, and the concept of a fatigue endurance limit (assumed for materials such as steel) is often an oversimplification of reality. When machine component design demands a high geometrical complexity, cast iron grades become interesting candidate materials. Grey cast iron is known for its low cost, high compressive strength, and good damping properties. However, the ultra-high cycle fatigue behavior of cast iron is poorly documented. The current work focuses on the ultra-high cycle fatigue behavior of EN-GJL-250 (GG25) grey cast iron by developing an ultrasonic (20 kHz) fatigue testing system. Moreover, the testing machine is instrumented to measure the temperature and the displacement of  the specimen, and to control the temperature. The high resonance frequency allowed to assess the  behavior of the cast iron of interest within a matter of days for ultra-high numbers of cycles, and repeat the tests to quantify the natural scatter in fatigue resistance.

Keywords: GG25, cast iron, ultra-high cycle fatigue, ultrasonic test

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Authors: Zhenzhen Xu, Chunfu Shao, Shengyou Wang, Chunjiao Dong

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To improve the satisfaction of residents' travel, this paper analyzes the characteristics and influencing factors of urban residents' travel behavior. First, a Multinominal Logit Model (MNL) model is built to analyze the characteristics of residents' travel behavior, reveal the influence of individual attributes, family attributes and travel characteristics on the choice of travel mode, and identify the significant factors. Then put forward suggestions for policy improvement. Finally, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) models are introduced to evaluate the policy effect. This paper selects Futian Street in Futian District, Shenzhen City for investigation and research. The results show that gender, age, education, income, number of cars owned, travel purpose, departure time, journey time, travel distance and times all have a significant influence on residents' choice of travel mode. Based on the above results, two policy improvement suggestions are put forward from reducing public transportation and non-motor vehicle travel time, and the policy effect is evaluated. Before the evaluation, the prediction effect of MNL, SVM and MLP models was evaluated. After parameter optimization, it was found that the prediction accuracy of the three models was 72.80%, 71.42%, and 76.42%, respectively. The MLP model with the highest prediction accuracy was selected to evaluate the effect of policy improvement. The results showed that after the implementation of the policy, the proportion of public transportation in plan 1 and plan 2 increased by 14.04% and 9.86%, respectively, while the proportion of private cars decreased by 3.47% and 2.54%, respectively. The proportion of car trips decreased obviously, while the proportion of public transport trips increased. It can be considered that the measures have a positive effect on promoting green trips and improving the satisfaction of urban residents, and can provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate transportation policies.

Keywords: neural network, travel characteristics analysis, transportation choice, travel sharing rate, traffic resource allocation

Procedia PDF Downloads 139

Authors: Priyadarsini Samal, Rajesh Singla

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Many mobile games come with the benefits of entertainment by introducing stress to the human brain. In recognizing this mental stress, the brain-computer interface (BCI) plays an important role. It has various neuroimaging approaches which help in analyzing the brain signals. Electroencephalogram (EEG) is the most commonly used method among them as it is non-invasive, portable, and economical. Here, this paper investigates the pattern in brain signals when introduced with mental stress. Two healthy volunteers played a game whose aim was to search hidden words from the grid, and the levels were chosen randomly. The EEG signals during gameplay were recorded to investigate the impacts of stress with the changing levels from easy to medium to hard. A total of 16 features of EEG were analyzed for this experiment which includes power band features with relative powers, event-related desynchronization, along statistical features. Support vector machine was used as the classifier, which resulted in an accuracy of 93.9% for three-level stress analysis; for two levels, the accuracy of 92% and 98% are achieved. In addition to that, another game that was similar in nature was played by the volunteers. A suitable regression model was designed for prediction where the feature sets of the first and second game were used for testing and training purposes, respectively, and an accuracy of 73% was found.

Keywords: brain computer interface, electroencephalogram, regression model, stress, word search

Procedia PDF Downloads 188

Authors: Minho Lee, Donghyun Back, Jaemoon Jung, Woojin Park

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The current 3-dimensional (3D) posture prediction models commonly provide only a few optimal postures to achieve a specific objective. The problem with such models is that they are incapable of rapidly providing several optimal posture candidates according to various situations. In order to solve this problem, this paper presents a 3D memory-based posture planning (3D MBPP) model, which is a new digital human model that can analyze the feasible postures in 3D space for reaching tasks that have postural constraints and specific reaching space. The 3D MBPP model can be applied to the types of works that are done with constrained working postures and have specific reaching space. The examples of such works include driving an excavator, driving automobiles, painting buildings, working at an office, pitching/batting, and boxing. For these types of works, a limited amount of space is required to store all of the feasible postures, as the hand reaches boundary can be determined prior to perform the task. This prevents computation time from increasing exponentially, which has been one of the major drawbacks of memory-based posture planning model in 3D space. This paper validates the utility of 3D MBPP model using a practical example of analyzing baseball batting posture. In baseball, batters swing with both feet fixed to the ground. This motion is appropriate for use with the 3D MBPP model since the player must try to hit the ball when the ball is located inside the strike zone (a limited area) in a constrained posture. The results from the analysis showed that the stored and the optimal postures vary depending on the ball’s flying path, the hitting location, the batter’s body size, and the batting objective. These results can be used to establish the optimal postural strategies for achieving the batting objective and performing effective hitting. The 3D MBPP model can also be applied to various domains to determine the optimal postural strategies and improve worker comfort.

Keywords: baseball, memory-based, posture prediction, reaching area, 3D digital human models

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Authors: Etienne Alain Feukeu, L. W. Snyman

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Water scarcity is becoming a real issue nowadays. Most countries in the world are facing it in their own way based on their own geographical coordinate and condition. Many countries are facing a challenge of a growing water demand as a result of not only an increased population, economic growth, but also as a pressure of the population dynamic and urbanization. In view to mitigate some of this related problem, an accurate method of water estimation and future prediction, forecast is essential to guarantee not only the sufficient quantity, but also a good water distribution and management system. Beside the fact that several works have been undertaken to address this concern, there is still a considerable disparity between different methods and standard used for water prediction and estimation. Hence this work contrast and compare two well-defined and established methods from two countries (USA and South Africa) to demonstrate the inconsistency when different method and standards are used interchangeably.

Keywords: water scarcity, water estimation, water prediction, water forecast.

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Authors: Liu Zhiyuan, Sun Zongdi

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In this paper, the BP neural network model is established to predict the carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City. First of all, we find the data of carbon trading price and carbon trading volume in Shanghai City from September 30, 2015 to December 23, 2016. The carbon trading price and trading volume data were processed to get the average value of each 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 carbon trading price and trading volume. Then, these data are used as input of BP neural network model. Finally, after the training of BP neural network, the prediction values of Shanghai carbon trading price and trading volume are obtained, and the model is tested.

Keywords: Carbon trading price, carbon trading volume, BP neural network model, Shanghai City

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Francis Mark A. Fernandez, Chelca Ubay, Armithan Suguitan

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Regions or provinces in a definite state certainly contribute to the economy of their mainland. These regions or provinces are the ones supplying the mainland with different resources and assets. Thus, with a certain region separating from the mainland would indeed impinge the heart of an entire state to develop and expand. With these, the researchers decided to study on the effects of the separation of one’s region to its mainland and the consequences that will take place if the mainland would rule out the region to separate from them. The researchers wrote this paper to present the causes of the separation of Catalonia from Spain and the prediction regarding the pursuance of this region to revolt from its mainland, Spain. In conducting this research, the researchers utilized two analyses, namely: qualitative and quantitative. In qualitative, numerous of information regarding the existing experiences of the citizens of Catalonia were gathered by the authors to give certainty to the prediction of the researchers. Besides this undertaking, the researchers will also gather needed information and figures through books, journals and the published news and reports. In addition, to further support this prediction under qualitative analysis, the researchers intended to operate the Phenomenological research in which the examiners will exemplify the lived experiences of each citizen in Catalonia. Moreover, the researchers will utilize one of the types of Phenomenological research which is hermeneutical phenomenology by Van Manen. In quantitative analysis, the researchers utilized the regression analysis in which it will ascertain the causality in an underlying theory in understanding the relationship of the variables. The researchers assigned and identified different variables, wherein the dependent variable or the y which represents the prediction of the researchers, the independent variable however or the x represents the arising problems that grounds the partition of the region, the summation of the independent variable or the ∑x represents the sum of the problem and finally the summation of the dependent variable or the ∑y is the result of the prediction. With these variables, using the regression analysis, the researchers will be able to show the connections and how a single variable could affect the other variables. From these approaches, the prediction of the researchers will be specified. This research could help different states dealing with this kind of problem. It will further help certain states undergoing this problem by analyzing the causes of these insurgencies and the effects on it if it will obstruct its region to consign their full-pledge autonomy.

Keywords: autonomy, liberty, prediction, separation

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Authors: I. Behroyan, P. Ganesan, S. He, S. Sivasankaran

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This study compares the predictions of five types of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models, including two single-phase models (i.e. Newtonian and non-Newtonian) and three two-phase models (Eulerian-Eulerian, mixture and Eulerian-Lagrangian), to investigate turbulent forced convection of Cu-water nanofluid in a tube with a constant heat flux on the tube wall. The Reynolds (Re) number of the flow is between 10,000 and 25,000, while the volume fraction of Cu particles used is in the range of 0 to 2%. The commercial CFD package of ANSYS-Fluent is used. The results from the CFD models are compared with results from experimental investigations from literature. According to the results of this study, non-Newtonian single-phase model, in general, does not show a good agreement with Xuan and Li correlation in prediction of Nu number. Eulerian-Eulerian model gives inaccurate results expect for φ=0.5%. Mixture model gives a maximum error of 15%. Newtonian single-phase model and Eulerian-Lagrangian model, in overall, are the recommended models. This work can be used as a reference for selecting an appreciate model for future investigation. The study also gives a proper insight about the important factors such as Brownian motion, fluid behavior parameters and effective nanoparticle conductivity which should be considered or changed by the each model.

Keywords: heat transfer, nanofluid, single-phase models, two-phase models

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Authors: Rashid S. Mohammad, Shicheng Zhang, Xinzhe Zhao

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In tight oil reservoirs, wettability alteration has generally been considered as an effective way to remove fracturing fluid retention on the surface of the fracture and consequently improved oil production. However, there is a lack of a reliable productivity prediction model to show the relationship between the wettability and oil production in tight oil well. In this paper, a new oil productivity prediction model of immiscible oil-water flow and miscible CO₂-oil flow accounting for wettability is developed. This mathematical model is established by considering two different length scales: nonporous network and propped fractures. CO₂ flow diffuses in the nonporous network and high velocity non-Darcy flow in propped fractures are considered by taking into account the effect of wettability alteration on capillary pressure and relative permeability. A laboratory experiment is also conducted here to validate this model. Laboratory experiments have been designed to compare the water saturation profiles for different contact angle, revealing the fluid retention in rock pores that affects capillary force and relative permeability. Four kinds of brines with different concentrations are selected here to create different contact angles. In water-wet porous media, as the system becomes more oil-wet, water saturation decreases. As a result, oil relative permeability increases. On the other hand, capillary pressure which is the resistance for the oil flow increases as well. The oil production change due to wettability alteration is the result of the comprehensive changes of oil relative permeability and capillary pressure. The results indicate that wettability is a key factor for fracturing fluid retention removal and oil enhancement in tight reservoirs. By incorporating laboratory test into a mathematical model, this work shows the relationship between wettability and oil production is not a simple linear pattern but a parabolic one. Additionally, it can be used for a better understanding of optimization design of fracturing fluids.

Keywords: wettability, relative permeability, fluid retention, oil production, unconventional and tight reservoirs

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Authors: Nilubon Kurubanjerdjit, Nattakarn Iam-On, Ka-Lok Ng

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MicroRNAs are small non-coding RNA found in many different species. They play crucial roles in cancer such as biological processes of apoptosis and proliferation. The identification of microRNA-target genes can be an essential first step towards to reveal the role of microRNA in various cancer types. In this paper, we predict miRNA-target genes for lung cancer by integrating prediction scores from miRanda and PITA algorithms used as a feature vector of miRNA-target interaction. Then, machine-learning algorithms were implemented for making a final prediction. The approach developed in this study should be of value for future studies into understanding the role of miRNAs in molecular mechanisms enabling lung cancer formation.

Keywords: microRNA, miRNAs, lung cancer, machine learning, Naïve Bayes, SVM

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Authors: Jia-Jang Wu

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This paper presents the scaling laws that provide the criteria of geometry and dynamic similitude between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, and can be used to predict the torsional vibration characteristics of the full-size rotor-shaft system by manipulating the corresponding data of its scale model. The scaling factors, which play fundamental roles in predicting the geometry and dynamic relationships between the full-size rotor-shaft system and its scale model, for torsional free vibration problems between scale and full-size rotor-shaft systems are firstly obtained from the equation of motion of torsional free vibration. Then, the scaling factor of external force (i.e., torque) required for the torsional forced vibration problems is determined based on the Newton’s second law. Numerical results show that the torsional free and forced vibration characteristics of a full-size rotor-shaft system can be accurately predicted from those of its scale models by using the foregoing scaling factors. For this reason, it is believed that the presented approach will be significant for investigating the relevant phenomenon in the scale model tests.

Keywords: torsional vibration, full-size model, scale model, scaling laws

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Authors: James Moir

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The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.

Keywords: big data, appearance, disappearance, surface, epistemology

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Authors: Georges Ghazi, Magali Gelhaye, Ruxandra Botez

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Over the years, the Flight Management System (FMS) has experienced a continuous improvement of its many features, to the point of becoming the pilot’s primary interface for flight planning operation on the airplane. With the assistance of the FMS, the concept of distance and time has been completely revolutionized, providing the crew members with the determination of the optimized route (or flight plan) from the departure airport to the arrival airport. To accomplish this function, the FMS needs an accurate Aircraft Performance Model (APM) of the aircraft. In general, APMs that equipped most modern FMSs are established before the entry into service of an individual aircraft, and results from the combination of a set of ordinary differential equations and a set of performance databases. Unfortunately, an aircraft in service is constantly exposed to dynamic loads that degrade its flight characteristics. These degradations endow two main origins: airframe deterioration (control surfaces rigging, seals missing or damaged, etc.) and engine performance degradation (fuel consumption increase for a given thrust). Thus, after several years of service, the performance databases and the APM associated to a specific aircraft are no longer representative enough of the actual aircraft performance. It is important to monitor the trend of the performance deterioration and correct the uncertainties of the aircraft model in order to improve the accuracy the flight management system predictions. The basis of this research lies in the new ability to continuously update an Aircraft Performance Model (APM) during flight using an adaptive lookup table technique. This methodology was developed and applied to the well-known Cessna Citation X business aircraft. For the purpose of this study, a level D Research Aircraft Flight Simulator (RAFS) was used as a test aircraft. According to Federal Aviation Administration the level D is the highest certification level for the flight dynamics modeling. Basically, using data available in the Flight Crew Operating Manual (FCOM), a first APM describing the variation of the engine fan speed and aircraft fuel flow w.r.t flight conditions was derived. This model was next improved using the proposed methodology. To do that, several cruise flights were performed using the RAFS. An algorithm was developed to frequently sample the aircraft sensors measurements during the flight and compare the model prediction with the actual measurements. Based on these comparisons, a correction was performed on the actual APM in order to minimize the error between the predicted data and the measured data. In this way, as the aircraft flies, the APM will be continuously enhanced, making the FMS more and more precise and the prediction of trajectories more realistic and more reliable. The results obtained are very encouraging. Indeed, using the tables initialized with the FCOM data, only a few iterations were needed to reduce the fuel flow prediction error from an average relative error of 12% to 0.3%. Similarly, the FCOM prediction regarding the engine fan speed was reduced from a maximum error deviation of 5.0% to 0.2% after only ten flights.

Keywords: aircraft performance, cruise, trajectory optimization, adaptive lookup tables, Cessna Citation X

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Authors: Ru-Yin Yang, Chi Wu, Cheng-Yu Tsai, Yin-Tzu Lin, Wen-Te Liu

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Background: Sleep breathing disorder (SDB) is a condition demonstrated by recurrent episodes of the airway obstruction leading to intermittent hypoxia and quality fragmentation during sleep time. However, the procedures for SDB severity examination remain complicated and costly. Objective: The objective of this study is to establish a simplified examination method for SDB by the respiratory impendence pattern sensor combining the signal processing and machine learning model. Methodologies: We records heart rate variability by the electrocardiogram and respiratory pattern by impendence. After the polysomnography (PSG) been done with the diagnosis of SDB by the apnea and hypopnea index (AHI), we calculate the episodes with the absence of flow and arousal index (AI) from device record. Subjects were divided into training and testing groups. Neuron network was used to establish a prediction model to classify the severity of the SDB by the AI, episodes, and body profiles. The performance was evaluated by classification in the testing group compared with PSG. Results: In this study, we enrolled 66 subjects (Male/Female: 37/29; Age:49.9±13.2) with the diagnosis of SDB in a sleep center in Taipei city, Taiwan, from 2015 to 2016. The accuracy from the confusion matrix on the test group by NN is 71.94 %. Conclusion: Based on the models, we established a prediction model for SDB by means of the wearable sensor. With more cases incoming and training, this system may be used to rapidly and automatically screen the risk of SDB in the future.

Keywords: sleep breathing disorder, apnea and hypopnea index, body parameters, neuron network

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Authors: Ishapathik Das

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The purpose of this article is to find a method of comparing designs for ordinal regression models using quantile dispersion graphs in the presence of linear predictor misspecification. The true relationship between response variable and the corresponding control variables are usually unknown. Experimenter assumes certain form of the linear predictor of the ordinal regression models. The assumed form of the linear predictor may not be correct always. Thus, the maximum likelihood estimates (MLE) of the unknown parameters of the model may be biased due to misspecification of the linear predictor. In this article, the uncertainty in the linear predictor is represented by an unknown function. An algorithm is provided to estimate the unknown function at the design points where observations are available. The unknown function is estimated at all points in the design region using multivariate parametric kriging. The comparison of the designs are based on a scalar valued function of the mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) matrix, which incorporates both variance and bias of the prediction caused by the misspecification in the linear predictor. The designs are compared using quantile dispersion graphs approach. The graphs also visually depict the robustness of the designs on the changes in the parameter values. Numerical examples are presented to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Keywords: model misspecification, multivariate kriging, multivariate logistic link, ordinal response models, quantile dispersion graphs

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Authors: Hui Zhang, Sherif Beskhyroun

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Structural Health monitoring systems (SHM) are commonly used to identify and assess structural damage. In terms of damage detection, SHM needs to periodically collect data from sensors placed in the structure as damage-sensitive features. This includes abnormal changes caused by the strain field and abnormal symptoms of the structure, such as damage and deterioration. Currently, deploying sensors on a large scale in a building structure is a challenge. In this study, a highly stretchable strain sensors are used in this study to collect data sets of strain generated on the surface of full-size reinforced concrete (RC) frames under extreme cyclic load application. This sensing sheet can be switched freely between the test bending strain and the axial strain to achieve two different configurations. On this basis, the deep neural network prediction model of the frame beam and frame column is established. The training results show that the method can accurately predict the strain value and has good generalization ability. The two deep neural network prediction models will also be deployed in the SHM system in the future as part of the intelligent strain sensor system.

Keywords: strain sensing sheets, deep neural networks, strain measurement, SHM system, RC frames

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Authors: Adel Khorramrouz, Monireh Ahmadi Bani, Ehsan Norouzi, Morvarid Lalenoor

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Background: Plantar pressure distribution measurement has been used for a long time to assess foot disorders. Plantar pressure is an important component affecting the foot and ankle function and Changes in plantar pressure distribution could indicate various foot and ankle disorders. Morphologic and mechanical properties of the foot may be important factors affecting the plantar pressure distribution. Accurate and early measurement may help to reduce the prevalence of pes planus. With recent developments in technology, new techniques such as machine learning have been used to assist clinicians in predicting patients with foot disorders. Significance of the study: This study proposes a neural network learning-based flat foot classification methodology using static foot pressure distribution. Methodologies: Data were collected from 895 patients who were referred to a foot clinic due to foot disorders. Patients with pes planus were labeled by an experienced physician based on clinical examination. Then all subjects (with and without pes planus) were evaluated for static plantar pressures distribution. Patients who were diagnosed with the flat foot in both feet were included in the study. In the next step, the leg length was normalized and the network was trained for plantar pressure mapping images. Findings: From a total of 895 image data, 581 were labeled as pes planus. A computational neural network (CNN) ran to evaluate the performance of the proposed model. The prediction accuracy of the basic CNN-based model was performed and the prediction model was derived through the proposed methodology. In the basic CNN model, the training accuracy was 79.14%, and the test accuracy was 72.09%. Conclusion: This model can be easily and simply used by patients with pes planus and doctors to predict the classification of pes planus and prescreen for possible musculoskeletal disorders related to this condition. However, more models need to be considered and compared for higher accuracy.

Keywords: foot disorder, machine learning, neural network, pes planus

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Authors: Arsalan Ghaderi

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Introduction: Inactivity is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease. According to the study prevalence of inactivity in Iran, about 67.5% and in the staff, and especially nurses, are similar. The inflammatory index (HS-CRP) is highly predictive of the progression of these diseases. Physical activity education is very important in preventing these diseases. One of the modern educational methods is web-based theory-based education. Methods: This is a semi-experimental interventional study which was conducted in Isfahan and Kurdistan universities of medical sciences in two stages. A cross-sectional study was done to determine the status of physical activity and its predictive factors. Then, intervention was performed, and six months later the data were retrieved. The data was collected using a demographic questionnaire, an integrative model of behavior prediction constructs, a standard physical activity questionnaire and (HS-CRP) test. Data were analyzed by SPSS software. Results: Physical activity was low in 66.6% of nurses, 25.4% were moderate and 8% severe. According to Pearson correlation matrix, the highest correlation was found between behavioral intention and skill structures (0.553**), subjective norms (0.222**) and self-efficacy (0.198**). The relationship between age and physical activity in the first study was reverse and significant. After intervention, there was a significant change in attitudes, self-efficacy, skill and behavioral intention in the intervention group. This change was significant in attitudes, self-efficacy and environmental conditions of the control group. HS-CRP index decreased significantly after intervention in both groups, but there was not a significant relationship between inflammatory index and physical activity score. The change in physical activity level was significant only in the control group. Conclusion: Despite the effect of educational intervention on attitude, self-efficacy, skill, and behavioral intention, the results showed that if factors such as environmental factors are not corrected, training and changing structures cannot lead to physical activity behavior. On the other hand, no correlation between physical activity and HS-CRP showed that this index can be influenced by other factors, and this should be considered in any intervention to reduce the HS-CRP index.

Keywords: HS-CRP, integrative model of behavior prediction, physical activity, nurses, web-based education

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Authors: Joselito Medina-Marin, Maria G. Serna-Diaz, Juan C. Seck-Tuoh-Mora, Norberto Hernandez-Romero, Irving Barragán-Vite

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Wind speed forecasting is an important issue for planning wind power generation facilities. The accuracy in the wind speed prediction allows a good performance of wind turbines for electricity generation. A model based on artificial neural networks is presented in this work. A dataset with atmospheric information about air temperature, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, and wind speed in Pachuca, Hidalgo, México, was used to train the artificial neural network. The data was downloaded from the web page of the National Meteorological Service of the Mexican government. The records were gathered for three months, with time intervals of ten minutes. This dataset was used to develop an iterative algorithm to create 1,110 ANNs, with different configurations, starting from one to three hidden layers and every hidden layer with a number of neurons from 1 to 10. Each ANN was trained with the Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm, which is used to learn the relationship between input and output values. The model with the best performance contains three hidden layers and 9, 6, and 5 neurons, respectively; and the coefficient of determination obtained was r²=0.9414, and the Root Mean Squared Error is 1.0559. In summary, the ANN approach is suitable to predict the wind speed in Pachuca City because the r² value denotes a good fitting of gathered records, and the obtained ANN model can be used in the planning of wind power generation grids.

Keywords: wind power generation, artificial neural networks, wind speed, coefficient of determination

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Authors: D. I. George Amalarethinam, A. Emima

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Educational Data Mining (EDM) is one of the newest topics to emerge in recent years, and it is concerned with developing methods for analyzing various types of data gathered from the educational circle. EDM methods and techniques with machine learning algorithms are used to extract meaningful and usable information from huge databases. For scientists and researchers, realistic applications of Machine Learning in the EDM sectors offer new frontiers and present new problems. One of the most important research areas in EDM is predicting student success. The prediction algorithms and techniques must be developed to forecast students' performance, which aids the tutor, institution to boost the level of student’s performance. This paper examines various classification techniques in prediction methods and data mining tools used in EDM.

Keywords: classification technique, data mining, EDM methods, prediction methods

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Authors: Swati Bhomia, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal

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Traditionally, monsoon forecasts have encountered many difficulties that stem from numerous issues such as lack of adequate upper air observations, mesoscale nature of convection, proper resolution, radiative interactions, planetary boundary layer physics, mesoscale air-sea fluxes, representation of orography, etc. Uncertainties in any of these areas lead to large systematic errors. Global circulation models (GCMs), which are developed independently at different institutes, each of which carries somewhat different representation of the above processes, can be combined to reduce the collective local biases in space, time, and for different variables from different models. This is the basic concept behind the multi-model superensemble and comprises of a training and a forecast phase. The training phase learns from the recent past performances of models and is used to determine statistical weights from a least square minimization via a simple multiple regression. These weights are then used in the forecast phase. The superensemble forecasts carry the highest skill compared to simple ensemble mean, bias corrected ensemble mean and the best model out of the participating member models. This approach is a powerful post-processing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing the direct model output errors. Although it can be applied successfully to the continuous parameters like temperature, humidity, wind speed, mean sea level pressure etc., in this paper, this approach is applied to rainfall, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods, due to its high temporal and spatial variability. The present study aims at the development of advanced superensemble schemes comprising of 1-5 day daily precipitation forecasts from five state-of-the-art global circulation models (GCMs), i.e., European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (Europe), National Center for Environmental Prediction (USA), China Meteorological Administration (China), Canadian Meteorological Centre (Canada) and U.K. Meteorological Office (U.K.) obtained from THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE), which is one of the most complete data set available. The novel approaches include the dynamical model selection approach in which the selection of the superior models from the participating member models at each grid and for each forecast step in the training period is carried out. Multi-model superensemble based on the training using similar conditions is also discussed in the present study, which is based on the assumption that training with the similar type of conditions may provide the better forecasts in spite of the sequential training which is being used in the conventional multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches. Further, a variety of methods that incorporate a 'neighborhood' around each grid point which is available in literature to allow for spatial error or uncertainty, have also been experimented with the above mentioned approaches. The comparison of these schemes with respect to the observations verifies that the newly developed approaches provide more unified and skillful prediction of the summer monsoon (viz. June to September) rainfall compared to the conventional multi-model approach and the member models.

Keywords: multi-model superensemble, dynamical model selection, similarity criteria, neighborhood technique, rainfall prediction

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Authors: Ayat E. Ali, Christeen R. Aziz, Merna A. Helmy, Mohammed M. Malek, Sherif H. El-Gohary

Abstract:

Goal: Purpose of the project was to make a plastic surgery prediction by using pre-operative images for the plastic surgeries’ patients and to show this prediction on a screen to compare between the current case and the appearance after the surgery. Methods: To this aim, we implemented a software which used data from the internet for facial skin diseases, skin burns, pre-and post-images for plastic surgeries then the post- surgical prediction is done by using K-nearest neighbor (KNN). So we designed and fabricated a smart mirror divided into two parts a screen and a reflective mirror so patient's pre- and post-appearance will be showed at the same time. Results: We worked on some skin diseases like vitiligo, skin burns and wrinkles. We classified the three degrees of burns using KNN classifier with accuracy 60%. We also succeeded in segmenting the area of vitiligo. Our future work will include working on more skin diseases, classify them and give a prediction for the look after the surgery. Also we will go deeper into facial deformities and plastic surgeries like nose reshaping and face slim down. Conclusion: Our project will give a prediction relates strongly to the real look after surgery and decrease different diagnoses among doctors. Significance: The mirror may have broad societal appeal as it will make the distance between patient's satisfaction and the medical standards smaller.

Keywords: k-nearest neighbor (knn), face detection, vitiligo, bone deformity

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Authors: Angeliki Peponi, Paulo Morgado, Jorge Trindade

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Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are applied as a robust tool for modeling and forecasting the erosion changes in Costa Caparica, Lisbon, Portugal, for 2021. ANNs present noteworthy advantages compared with other methods used for prediction and decision making in urban coastal areas. Multilayer perceptron type of ANNs was used. Sensitivity analysis was conducted on natural and social forces and dynamic relations in the dune-beach system of the study area. Variations in network’s parameters were performed in order to select the optimum topology of the network. The developed methodology appears fitted to reality; however further steps would make it better suited.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, backpropagation, coastal urban zones, erosion prediction

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Authors: Christoph Ostermair

Abstract:

We deal with the effect of correlation between prospects on human decision making under uncertainty as proposed by the comparatively new and promising model of “salience theory of choice under risk”. In this regard, we show that the theory entails the prediction that the inconsistency of choices, known as the Allais paradox, should not be an issue in the context of “real-life decision making”, which typically corresponds to situations of subjective uncertainty. The Allais paradox, probably the best-known anomaly regarding expected utility theory, would then essentially have no practical relevance. If, however, empiricism contradicts this prediction, salience theory might suffer a serious setback. Explanations of the model for variable human choice behavior are mostly the result of a particular mechanism that does not come to play under perfect correlation. Hence, if it turns out that correlation between prospects – as typically found in real-world applications – does not influence human decision making in the expected way, this might to a large extent cost the theory its explanatory power. The empirical literature regarding the Allais paradox under subjective uncertainty is so far rather moderate. Beyond that, the results are hard to maintain as an argument, as the presentation formats commonly employed, supposably have generated so-called event-splitting effects, thereby distorting subjects’ choice behavior. In our own incentivized experimental study, we control for such effects by means of two different choice settings. We find significant event-splitting effects in both settings, thereby supporting the suspicion that the so far existing empirical results related to Allais paradoxes under subjective uncertainty may not be able to answer the question at hand. Nevertheless, we find that the basic tendency behind the Allais paradox, which is a particular switch of the preference relation due to a modified common consequence, shared by two prospects, is still existent both under an event-splitting and a coalesced presentation format. Yet, the modal choice pattern is in line with the prediction of salience theory. As a consequence, the effect of correlation, as proposed by the model, might - if anything - only weaken the systematic choice pattern behind the Allais paradox.

Keywords: Allais paradox, common consequence effect, models of decision making under risk and uncertainty, salience theory

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Authors: Phanida Phukoetphim, Asaad Y. Shamseldin

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In this study, the novel Stochastic Gradient Boosting (SGB) combination method is addressed for producing daily river flows from four different rain-runoff models of Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The selected rainfall-runoff models are two empirical black-box models: linear perturbation model and linear varying gain factor model, two conceptual models: soil moisture accounting and routing model and Nedbør-Afrstrømnings model. In this study, the simple average combination method and the weighted average combination method were used as a benchmark for comparing the results of the novel SGB combination method. The models and combination results are evaluated using statistical and graphical criteria. Overall results of this study show that the use of combination technique can certainly improve the simulated river flows of four selected models for Ohinemuri catchment, New Zealand. The results also indicate that the novel SGB combination method is capable of accurate prediction when used in a combination method of the simulated river flows in New Zealand.

Keywords: multi-model combination, rainfall-runoff modeling, stochastic gradient boosting, bioinformatics

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Authors: Muhammad Ahnaf Zahin, Yaw Adu-Gyamfi

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Bus transit is a crucial component of transportation networks, especially in urban areas. Any intelligent transportation system must have accurate real-time information on bus travel times since it minimizes waiting times for passengers at different stations along a route, improves service reliability, and significantly optimizes travel patterns. Bus agencies must enhance the quality of their information service to serve their passengers better and draw in more travelers since people waiting at bus stops are frequently anxious about when the bus will arrive at their starting point and when it will reach their destination. For solving this issue, different models have been developed for predicting bus travel times recently, but most of them are focused on smaller road networks due to their relatively subpar performance in high-density urban areas on a vast network. This paper develops a deep learning-based architecture using a single-step multi-station forecasting approach to predict average bus travel times for numerous routes, stops, and trips on a large-scale network using heterogeneous bus transit data collected from the GTFS database. Over one week, data was gathered from multiple bus routes in Saint Louis, Missouri. In this study, Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) neural network was followed to predict the mean vehicle travel times for different hours of the day for multiple stations along multiple routes. Historical time steps and prediction horizon were set up to 5 and 1, respectively, which means that five hours of historical average travel time data were used to predict average travel time for the following hour. The spatial and temporal information and the historical average travel times were captured from the dataset for model input parameters. As adjacency matrices for the spatial input parameters, the station distances and sequence numbers were used, and the time of day (hour) was considered for the temporal inputs. Other inputs, including volatility information such as standard deviation and variance of journey durations, were also included in the model to make it more robust. The model's performance was evaluated based on a metric called mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The observed prediction errors for various routes, trips, and stations remained consistent throughout the day. The results showed that the developed model could predict travel times more accurately during peak traffic hours, having a MAPE of around 14%, and performed less accurately during the latter part of the day. In the context of a complicated transportation network in high-density urban areas, the model showed its applicability for real-time travel time prediction of public transportation and ensured the high quality of the predictions generated by the model.

Keywords: gated recurrent unit, mean absolute percentage error, single-step forecasting, travel time prediction.

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Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

Abstract:

Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

Procedia PDF Downloads 248