Search results for: purchasing portfolio

Authors: Parya Tabei, Maryam Habibifar

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Decision-making is an important cognitive function that can be defined as the process of choosing an option among available options to achieve a specific goal. Consumer ‘need’ is the main reason for purchasing decisions. Human decision-making while buying products online is subject to various factors, one of which is the quality and effect of advertising photos. Advertising photo editing can have a significant impact on people's virtual purchase decisions. This technique helps improve the quality and overall appearance of photos by adjusting various aspects such as brightness, contrast, colors, cropping, resizing, and adding filters. This study, by examining the effect of editing advertising photos on the virtual purchase decision using EEG data, tries to investigate the effect of edited images on the decision-making of customers. A group of 30 participants were asked to react to 24 edited and unedited images while their EEG was recorded. Analysis of the EEG data revealed increased alpha wave activity in the occipital regions (O1, O2) for both edited and unedited images, which is related to visual processing and attention. Additionally, there was an increase in beta wave activity in the frontal regions (FP1, FP2, F4, F8) when participants viewed edited images, suggesting involvement in cognitive processes such as decision-making and evaluating advertising content. Gamma wave activity also increased in various regions, especially the frontal and parietal regions, which are associated with higher cognitive functions, such as attention, memory, and perception, when viewing the edited images. While the visual processing reflected by alpha waves remained consistent across different visual conditions, editing advertising photos appeared to boost neural activity in frontal and parietal regions associated with decision-making processes. These Findings suggest that photo editing could potentially influence consumer perceptions during virtual shopping experiences by modulating brain activity related to product assessment and purchase decisions.

Keywords: virtual purchase decision, advertising photo, EEG parameters, decision Making

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Authors: Mai A. Ibrahim, Mohammed El-Beltagy, Motaz Khorshid

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Emerging Markets return distributions have shown significance departure from normality were they are characterized by fatter tails relative to the normal distribution and exhibit levels of skewness and kurtosis that constitute a significant departure from normality. Therefore, the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance is not applicable for emerging markets since it assumes normally-distributed returns (with zero skewness and kurtosis) and a quadratic utility function. Moreover, the Markowitz mean-variance analysis can be used in cases of moderate non-normality and it still provides a good approximation of the expected utility, but it may be ineffective under large departure from normality. Higher moments models and median models have been suggested in the literature for asset allocation in this case. Higher moments models have been introduced to account for the insufficiency of the description of a portfolio by only its first two moments while the median model has been introduced as a robust statistic which is less affected by outliers than the mean. Tail risk measures such as Value-at Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) have been introduced instead of Variance to capture the effect of risk. In this research, higher moment models including the Mean-Variance-Skewness (MVS) and Mean-Variance-Skewness-Kurtosis (MVSK) are formulated as single-objective non-linear programming problems (NLP) and median models including the Median-Value at Risk (MedVaR) and Median-Mean Absolute Deviation (MedMAD) are formulated as a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) problems. The higher moment models and median models are compared to some benchmark portfolios and tested on real financial data in the Egyptian main Index EGX30. The results show that all the median models outperform the higher moment models were they provide higher final wealth for the investor over the entire period of study. In addition, the results have confirmed the inapplicability of the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance to the Egyptian stock market as it resulted in very low realized profits.

Keywords: Egyptian stock exchange, emerging markets, higher moment models, median models, mixed-integer linear programming, non-linear programming

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Authors: Felipe Henao, Yeny Rodriguez, Juan P. Viteri, Isaac Dyner

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Colombia is rich in natural resources and greatly focuses on the exploitation of water for hydroelectricity purposes. Alternative cleaner energy sources, such as solar and wind power, have been largely neglected despite: a) its abundance, b) the complementarities between hydro, solar and wind power, and c) the cost competitiveness of renewable technologies. The current limited mix of energy sources creates considerable weaknesses for the system, particularly when facing extreme dry weather conditions, such as El Niño event. In the past, El Niño have exposed the truly consequences of a system heavily dependent on hydropower, i.e. loss of power supply, high energy production costs, and loss of overall competitiveness for the country. Nonetheless, it is expected that the participation of hydroelectricity will increase in the near future. In this context, this paper proposes a stochastic lineal programming model to optimize the insertion of renewable energy systems (RES) into the Colombian electricity sector. The model considers cost-based generation competition between traditional energy technologies and alternative RES. This work evaluates the financial, environmental, and technical implications of different combinations of technologies. Various scenarios regarding the future evolution of costs of the technologies are considered to conduct sensitivity analysis of the solutions – to assess the extent of the participation of the RES in the Colombian power sector. Optimization results indicate that, even in the worst case scenario, where costs remain constant, the Colombian power sector should diversify its portfolio of technologies and invest strongly in solar and wind power technologies. The diversification through RES will contribute to make the system less vulnerable to extreme weather conditions, reduce the overall system costs, cut CO2 emissions, and decrease the chances of having national blackout events in the future. In contrast, the business as usual scenario indicates that the system will turn more costly and less reliable.

Keywords: energy policy and planning, stochastic programming, sustainable development, water management

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Authors: Cesar Leines

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The social effects of the pandemic are significant and diverse, most of those effects have widened the gap of economic inequality. Without a doubt, each country faces difficulties associated with the strengths and weaknesses of its own institutions that can address these causes and consequences. Around the world, pricing practices that have no connection to production costs have been used extensively in numerous markets beyond those relating to the supply of essential goods and services, and although it is not unlawful to adjust pricing considering the increased demand of certain products, shortages and disruption of supply chains, illegitimate pricing practices may arise and these tend to transfer wealth from consumers to producers that affect the purchasing power of the former, making people worse off. High prices with no objective justification indicate a poor state of the competitive process in any market and the impact of those underlying competition issues leading to inefficiency is increased when national competition agencies are weak and ineffective in enforcing competition in law and policy. It has been observed that in those countries where competition authorities are perceived as weak or ineffective, price increases of a wide range of products and services were more significant during the pandemic than those price increases observed in countries where the perception of the effectiveness of the competition agency is high. When a perception is created of a highly effective competition authority, one which enforces competition law and its non-enforcement activities result in the fulfillment of its substantive functions of protecting competition as the means to create efficient markets, the price rise observed in markets under its jurisdiction is low. A case study focused on the effectiveness of the national competition agency in Mexico (COFECE) points to institutional weakness as one of the causes leading to excessive pricing. There are many factors that contribute to its low effectiveness and which, in turn, have led to a very significant price hike, potentiated by the pandemic. This paper contributes to the discussion of these factors and proposes different steps that overall help COFECE or any other competition agency to increase the perception of effectiveness for the benefit of the consumers.

Keywords: agency effectiveness, competition, institutional weakness, price gouging

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Authors: Siti Rahmawati

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Indonesia has had long period of monetary economic crisis and it is followed by an upward trend in the price of fuel oil. This situation impacts all aspects of tuna fishermen community. For instance, the basic needs of fishing communities increase and the lower purchasing power then lead to economic and social instability as well as the health of fishermen household. To understand this AHP method is applied to acknowledge the model of tuna fisheries management priorities and cold chain marketing channel and the utilization levels that impact on human health. The study is designed as a development research with the number of 180 respondents. The data were analyzed by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method. The development of tuna fishery business can improve productivity of production with economic empowerment activities for coastal communities, improving the competitiveness of products, developing fish processing centers and provide internal capital for the development of optimal fishery business. From economic aspects, fishery business is more attracting because the benefit cost ratio of 2.86. This means that for 10 years, the economic life of this project can work well as B/C> 1 and therefore the rate of investment is economically viable. From the health aspects, tuna can reduce the risk of dying from heart disease by 50%, because tuna contain selenium in the human body. The consumption of 100 g of tuna meet 52.9% of the selenium in the body and activating the antioxidant enzyme glutathione peroxidaxe which can protect the body from free radicals and stimulate various cancers. The results of the analytic hierarchy process that the quality of tuna products is the top priority for export quality as well as quality control in order to compete in the global market. The implementation of the policy can increase the income of fishermen and reduce the poverty of fishermen households and have impact on the human health whose has high risk of disease.

Keywords: management of tuna, social, economic, health

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Authors: Sarif Ullah Patwary, Matthew Heinrich, Brandon Payne

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The ubiquity of web 2.0 platforms, in the form of wikis, social media (e.g., Facebook, Twitter, etc.) and online review portals (e.g., Yelp), helps shape today’s apparel consumers’ purchasing decision. Online reviews play important role towards consumers’ apparel purchase decision. Each of the consumer reviews carries a sentiment (positive, negative or neutral) towards products. Commercially, apparel brands and retailers analyze sentiment of this massive amount of consumer review data to update their inventory and bring new products in the market. The purpose of this study is to analyze consumer reviews of selected apparel stores with a view to understand, 1) the difference of sentiment expressed through men’s and woman’s text reviews, 2) the difference of sentiment expressed through men’s and woman’s star-based reviews, and 3) the difference of sentiment between star-based reviews and text-based reviews. A total of 9,363 reviews (1,713 men and 7,650 women) were collected using Yelp Dataset Challenge. Sentiment analysis of collected reviews was carried out in two dimensions: star-based reviews and text-based reviews. Sentiment towards apparel stores expressed through star-based reviews was deemed: 1) positive for 3 or 4 stars 2) negative for 1 or 2 stars and 3) neutral for 3 stars. Sentiment analysis of text-based reviews was carried out using Bing Liu dictionary. The analysis was conducted in IPyhton 5.0. Space. The sentiment analysis results revealed the percentage of positive text reviews by men (80%) and women (80%) were identical. Women reviewers (12%) provided more neutral (e.g., 3 out of 5 stars) star reviews than men (6%). Star-based reviews were more negative than the text-based reviews. In other words, while 80% men and women wrote positive reviews for the stores, less than 70% ended up giving 4 or 5 stars in those reviews. One of the key takeaways of the study is that star reviews provide slightly negative sentiment of the consumer reviews. Therefore, in order to understand sentiment towards apparel products, one might need to combine both star and text aspects of consumer reviews. This study used a specific dataset consisting of selected apparel stores from particular geographical locations (the information was not given for privacy concern). Future studies need to include more data from more stores and locations to generalize the findings of the study.

Keywords: apparel, consumer review, sentiment analysis, gender

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Authors: Abdullahi Yahaya Musa, Harun Rann Bakari

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The study examined the determinants of food security among households in Maiduguri, Metropolis, Borno State, Nigeria. The objectives of the study are to: examine the determinants of food security among households; identify the coping strategies employed by food-insecure households in Maiduguri, Metropolis, Borno State, Nigeria. The population of the study is 843,964 respondents out of which 400 respondents were sampled. The study used a self-developed questionnaire to collect data from four hundred (400) respondents. Four hundred (400) copies of questionnaires were administered and all were retrieved, making 100% return rate. The study employed descriptive and inferential statistics for data analysis. Descriptive statistics (frequency counts and percentages) was used to analyze the socio-economic characteristics of the respondents and objective four, while inferential statistics (logit regression analysis) was used to analyze one. Four hundred (400) copies of questionnaires were administered and all the four hundred (400) were retrieved, making a 100% return rate. The results were presented in tables and discussed according to the research objectives. The study revealed that HHA, HHE, HHSZ, HHSX, HHAS, HHI, HHFS, HHFE, HHAC and HHCDR were the determinants of food security in Maiduguri Metropolis. Relying on less preferred foods, purchasing food on credit, limiting food intake to ensure children get enough, borrowing money to buy foodstuffs, relying on help from relatives or friends outside the household, adult family members skipping or reducing a meal because of insufficient finances and ration money to household members to buy street food were the coping strategies employed by food-insecure households in Maiduguri metropolis. The study recommended that Nigeria Government should intensify the fight against the Boko haram insurgency. This will put an end to Boko Haram Insurgency and enable farmers to return to farming in Borno state.

Keywords: internally displaced persons, food security, coping strategies, descriptive statistics, logistics regression model, odd ratio

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Authors: Radim Sip, Denisa Denglerova

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It’s impossible to capture complex phenomena, such as inclusion, with reductionism. The most common form of reductionism is the objectivist approach, where processes and relationships are reduced to entities and clearly outlined phases, with a consequent search for relationships between them. Constructivism as a paradigm and situational analysis as a methodological research portfolio represent a way to avoid the dominant objectivist approach. They work with a situation, i.e. with the essential blending of actors and their environment. Primary transactions are taking place between actors and their surroundings. Researchers create constructs based on their need to solve a problem. Concepts therefore do not describe reality, but rather a complex of real needs in relation to the available options how such needs can be met. For examination of a complex problem, corresponding methodological tools and overall design of the research are necessary. Using an original research on inclusion in the Czech Republic as an example, this contribution demonstrates that inclusion is not a substance easily described, but rather a relationship field changing its forms in response to its actors’ behaviour and current circumstances. Inclusion consists of dynamic relationship between an ideal, real circumstances and ways to achieve such ideal under the given circumstances. Such achievement has many shapes and thus cannot be captured by description of objects. It can be expressed in relationships in the situation defined by time and space. Situational analysis offers tools to examine such phenomena. It understands a situation as a complex of dynamically changing aspects and prefers relationships and positions in the given situation over a clear and final definition of actors, entities, etc. Situational analysis assumes creation of constructs as a tool for solving a problem at hand. It emphasizes the meanings that arise in the process of coordinating human actions, and the discourses through which these meanings are negotiated. Finally, it offers “cartographic tools” (situational maps, socials worlds / arenas maps, positional maps) that are able to capture the complexity in other than linear-analytical ways. This approach allows for inclusion to be described as a complex of phenomena taking place with a certain historical preference, a complex that can be overlooked if analyzed with a more traditional approach.

Keywords: constructivism, situational analysis, objective realism, reductionism, inclusion

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Authors: Jonas Sanon

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The valorization of research is becoming a transversal instrument linking different sectors (academic, public and industrial). The practice of valorization seems to impact innovation techniques within companies where, there is often the implementation of industrial conventions of training through research (CIFRE), continuous training programs for employees, collaborations and partnerships around joint research and R&D laboratories focused on the needs of companies to improve or develop more efficient innovations. Furthermore, many public initiatives to support innovation and technology transfer have been developed at the international, European and national levels, with significant budget allocations. Thus, in the context of this work, we tried to analyze the way in which research transfer structures are evaluated within the Saclay ecosystem. In fact, the University-Paris-Saclay is one of the best French universities; it is made up of 10 university components, more than 275 laboratories and is in partnership with the largest French research centers This work mainly focused on how evaluations affected research transfer structures, how evaluations were conducted, and what the managers of research transfer structures thought about assessments. Thus, with the aid of the conducted interviews, it appears that the evaluations do not have a significant impact on the qualitative aspect of research and innovation, but is rather present a directive aspect to allow the structures to benefit or not from the financial resources to develop certain research work, sometimes directed and influenced by the market, some researchers might try to accentuate their research and experimentation work on themes that are not necessarily their areas of interest, but just to comply with the calls for proposed thematic projects. The field studies also outline the primary indicators used to assess the effectiveness of valorization structures as "the number of start-ups generated, the license agreements signed, the structure's patent portfolio, and the innovations of items developed from public research.". Finally, after mapping the actors, it became clear that the ecosystem of the University of Paris-Saclay benefits from a richness allowing it to better value its research in relation to the three categories of actors it has (internal, external and transversal), united and linked by a relationship of proximity of sharing and endowed with a real opportunity to innovate openly.

Keywords: research valorization, technology transfer, innovation, evaluation, impacts and performances, innovation policy

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Authors: Yuanxiaoyue Yang

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Emissions trading, or ‘cap-and-trade', has been long promoted by economists as a more cost-effective pollution control approach than traditional performance standard approaches. While there is a large body of empirical evidence for the overall effectiveness of emissions trading, relatively little attention has been paid to other unintended consequences brought by emissions trading. One important consequence is that cap-and-trade could introduce the risk of creating high-level emission concentrations in areas where emitting facilities purchase a large number of emission allowances, which may cause an unequal distribution of environmental benefits. This study will contribute to the current environmental policy literature by linking trading activity with environmental injustice concerns and empirically analyzing the causal relationship between trading activity and emissions reduction under a cap-and-trade program for the first time. To investigate the potential environmental injustice concern in cap-and-trade, this paper uses a differences-in-differences (DID) with instrumental variable method to identify the causal effect of allowance trading behaviors on emission reduction levels under the clean air interstate rule (CAIR), a cap-and-trade program targeting on the power sector in the eastern US. The major data source is the facility-year level emissions and allowance transaction data collected from US EPA air market databases. While polluting facilities from CAIR are the treatment group under our DID identification, we use non-CAIR facilities from the Acid Rain Program - another NOx control program without a trading scheme – as the control group. To isolate the causal effects of trading behaviors on emissions reduction, we also use eligibility for CAIR participation as the instrumental variable. The DID results indicate that the CAIR program was able to reduce NOx emissions from affected facilities by about 10% more than facilities who did not participate in the CAIR program. Therefore, CAIR achieves excellent overall performance in emissions reduction. The IV regression results also indicate that compared with non-CAIR facilities, purchasing emission permits still decreases a CAIR participating facility’s emissions level significantly. This result implies that even buyers under the cap-and-trade program have achieved a great amount of emissions reduction. Therefore, we conclude little evidence of environmental injustice from the CAIR program.

Keywords: air pollution, cap-and-trade, emissions trading, environmental justice

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Authors: Christopher Meyer, Laima Gerlitz

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European ports are facing high political pressure through the implementation of initiatives such as the European Green Deal or IMO's 2030 targets (Fit for 55). However, small and medium-sized ports face even higher challenges compared to bigger ones due to lower capacities in various fields such as investments, infra-structure, Human Resources, and funding opportunities. Small and Medium-Sized Ports (SMPs) roles in economic systems are various depending on their specific functionality in maritime ecosystems. Depending on their different situations, being an actor in multiport gateways, aligned to core ports, regional nodes in peripheries for the hinterland, specialized cluster members, or logistical nodes, different strategic business models may be applied to increase SMPs' competitiveness among other bigger ports. Additionally, SMPs are facing more challenges for future development in terms of digital and green transition of their operations. Thus, it is necessary to evaluate the own strategical position and apply management strategies alongside the regional growth and innovation strategies for diversification or specialisation of own port businesses. The research uses inductive perspectives to set up a transferable framework based on case studies to be analysed. In line with particular research and document analysis, qualitative approaches were considered. The research is based on a deep literature review on SMPs as well as theories on diversification and specialisation. Existing theories from different fields are evaluated on their application for the port sector and these specific maritime actors, paying respect to enabling innovation incorporation to enhance digital and environmental transition with fu-ture perspectives for SMPs. The paper aims to provide a decision-making matrix for the strategic positioning of SMPs in Europe, including opportunities to get access to particular EU funds for future development alongside the Regional In-novation Strategies on Smart Specialisation.

Keywords: strategic planning, sustainability transition, competitiveness portfolio, EU green deal

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Authors: Salamatu Shaibu, Jan Hernning Sommer

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Integrating biodiversity conservation practices in mining landscapes ensures the continual provision of various ecosystem services to the dependent communities whilst serving as ecological insurance for corporate mining when purchasing reclamation security bonds. Climate hazards such as long dry seasons, erratic rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events contribute to biodiversity loss in addition to the impact due to mining. Both corporate mining and mine-fringe communities perceive the effect of climate on biodiversity from the context of the benefits they accrue, which motivate their conservation practices. In this study, pragmatic approaches including semi-structured interviews, field visual observation, and review were used to collect data on corporate mining employees and households of fringing communities in the southwestern mining hub. The perceived changes in the local climatic conditions and the consequences on environmental management practices that promote biodiversity conservation were examined. Using a thematic content analysis tool, the result shows that best practices such as concurrent land rehabilitation, reclamation ponds, artificial wetlands, land clearance, and topsoil management are directly affected by prolonging long dry seasons and erratic rainfall patterns. Excessive dust and noise generation directly affect both floral and faunal diversity coupled with excessive fire outbreaks in rehabilitated lands and nearby forest reserves. Proposed adaptive measures include engaging national conservation authorities to promote reforestation projects around forest reserves. National government to desist from using permit for mining concessions in forest reserves, engaging local communities through educational campaigns to control forest encroachment and burning, promoting community-based resource management to promote community ownership, and provision of stricter environmental legislation to compel corporate, artisanal, and small scale mining companies to promote biodiversity conservation.

Keywords: biodiversity conservation, climate hazards, corporate mining, mining landscapes

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Authors: Chang Yu Chuan

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Background and Aim: Pressure sore is not only the consequence of any gradual damage of the skin leading to tissue defects but also an important indicator of clinical care. If hospitalized patients develop pressure sores without proper care, it would result in delayed healing, wound infection, increase patient physical pain, prolonged hospital stay and even death, which would have a negative impact on the quality of care and also increase nursing manpower and medical costs. This project is aimed at decreasing the incidence of pressure sore in one ward of internal medicine. Our data showed 53 cases (0.61%) of pressure sore in 2015, which exceeded the average (0.5%) of Taiwan Clinical Performance Indicator (TCPI) for medical centers. The purpose of this project is to reduce the incidence rate of pressure sore in the ward. After data collection and analysis from January to December 2016, the reasons of developing pressure sore were found: 1. Lack of knowledge to prevent pressure among nursing staffs; 2. No relevant courses about preventing pressure ulcers and pressure wound care being held in this unit; 3. Low complete rate of pressure sore care education that family members should receive from nursing staffs; 4. Decompression equipment is not enough; 5. Lack of standard procedures for body-turning and positioning care. After team members brainstorming, several strategies were proposed, including holding in-service education, pressure sore care seed training, purchasing decompression mattress and memory pillows, designing more elements of health education tools, such as health education pamphlet, posters and multimedia films of body-turning and positioning demonstration, formulation and promotion of standard operating procedures. In this way, nursing staffs can understand the body-turning and positioning guidelines for pressure sore prevention and enhance the quality of care. After the implementation of this project, the pressure sore density significantly decreased from 0.61%(53 cases) to 0.45%(28 cases) in this ward. The project shows good results and good example for nurses working at the ward and helps to enhance quality of care.

Keywords: body-turning and positioning, incidence density, nursing, pressure sore

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Authors: Emmanuel U. Unuafe, Oyegoke T. Bukoye, Sandhya Sastry, Yanqing Duan

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Globally, there is increasing interest in project management due to a shortage in infrastructure services supply capability. Hence, it is of utmost importance that organisations understand that choosing a particular project over another is an opportunity cost – tying up the organisations resources. In order to devise constructive ways to bring direction, structure, and oversight to the process of project selection has led to the development of tools and techniques by researchers and practitioners. However, despite the development of various frameworks to assist in the appraisal and selection of government projects, failures are still being recorded with government projects. In developing countries, where frameworks are rarely used, the problems are compounded. To improve the situation, this study will investigate the current practice of construction project selection processes within the Nigeria public sector in order to inform theories of decision making from the perspective of developing nations and project management practice. Unlike other research around construction projects in Nigeria this research concentrate on factors influencing the selection process within the Nigeria public sector, which has received limited study. The authors report the findings of semi-structured interviews of top management in the Nigerian public sector and draw conclusions in terms of decision making extant theory and current practice. Preliminary results from the data analysis show that groups make project selection decisions and this forces sub-optimal decisions due to pressure on time, clashes of interest, lack of standardised framework for selecting projects, lack of accountability and poor leadership. Consequently, because decision maker is usually drawn from different fields, religious beliefs, ethnic group and with different languages. The choice of a project by an individual will be greatly influence by experience, political precedence than by realistic investigation as well as his understanding of the desired outcome of the project, in other words, the individual’s ideology and their level of fairness.

Keywords: factors influencing project selection, public sector construction project selection, projects portfolio selection, strategic decision-making

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Authors: Janne Engblom, Elias Oikarinen

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The understanding of housing price dynamics is of importance to a great number of agents: to portfolio investors, banks, real estate brokers and construction companies as well as to policy makers and households. A panel dataset is one that follows a given sample of individuals over time, and thus provides multiple observations on each individual in the sample. Panel data models include a variety of fixed and random effects models which form a wide range of linear models. A special case of panel data models is dynamic in nature. A complication regarding a dynamic panel data model that includes the lagged dependent variable is endogeneity bias of estimates. Several approaches have been developed to account for this problem. In this paper, the panel models were estimated using the Common Correlated Effects estimator (CCE) of dynamic panel data which also accounts for cross-sectional dependence which is caused by common structures of the economy. In presence of cross-sectional dependence standard OLS gives biased estimates. In this study, U.S housing price dynamics were examined empirically using the dynamic CCE estimator with first-difference of housing price as the dependent and first-differences of per capita income, interest rate, housing stock and lagged price together with deviation of housing prices from their long-run equilibrium level as independents. These deviations were also estimated from the data. The aim of the analysis was to provide estimates with comparisons of estimates between 1980-1999 and 2000-2012. Based on data of 50 U.S cities over 1980-2012 differences of short-run housing price dynamics estimates were mostly significant when two time periods were compared. Significance tests of differences were provided by the model containing interaction terms of independents and time dummy variable. Residual analysis showed very low cross-sectional correlation of the model residuals compared with the standard OLS approach. This means a good fit of CCE estimator model. Estimates of the dynamic panel data model were in line with the theory of housing price dynamics. Results also suggest that dynamics of a housing market is evolving over time.

Keywords: dynamic model, panel data, cross-sectional dependence, interaction model

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Authors: Vassiliki Drosou, Theoni Oikonomou

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EU-SOLARIS will form a new legal entity to explore and implement improved rules and procedures for Research Infrastructures (RI) for Concentrated Solar Thermal (CST) and solar chemistry technologies, in order to optimize RI development and R&D coordination. It is expected to be the first of its kind, where industrial needs and private funding will play a significant role. The success of EU-SOLARIS initiative will be the establishment of a new governance body, aided by sustainable financial models. EU-SOLARIS is expected to be an important tool, which will provide the most complete, high quality scientific infrastructure portfolio at international level and to facilitate researchers' access to highly specialised research infrastructure through a single access point. This will be accomplished by linking scientific communities, industry and universities involved in the CST sector. The access to be offered by EU-SOLARIS will guarantee the direct contact of experienced scientists with newcomers and interested students. The set of RIs participating in EU-SOLARIS will offer access to state of the art infrastructures, high-quality services, and will enable users to conduct high quality research. Access to these facilities will contribute to the enhancement of the European research area by: -Opening installations to European and non-European scientists, coming from both academia and industry, thus improving co-operation. -Improving scientific critical mass in domains where knowledge is now widely dispersed. -Generating strong Europe-wide R&D project consortia, increasing the competitiveness of each member alone. EU-SOLARIS will be created in the framework of a European project, co-funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union –whose initiative is to foster, contribute and promote the scientific and technological development of the CST and solar chemistry technologies. Primary objective of EU-SOLARIS is to contribute to the improvement of the state of the art of these technologies with the aim of preserving and reinforcing the European leadership in this field, in which EU-SOLARIS is expected to be a valuable instrument. EU-SOLARIS scope, activities, objectives, current status and vision will be given in the article. Moreover, the rules, processes and criteria regulating the access to the research infrastructures included in EU-SOLARIS will be presented.

Keywords: concentrated solar thermal (CST) technology, renewable energy sources, research infrastructures, solar chemistry

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Authors: Miguel Nino

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When considering the challenges of a changing and demanding globalizing world, it is important to reflect on how university students will be prepared for the realities of internationalization, marketization and intercultural conversation. The present study is an interdisciplinary program designed to respond to the needs of the global community. The proposal bridges the humanities and science through three different fields: Languages, graphic design and computer science, specifically, fundamentals of programming such as python, java script and software animation. Therefore, the goal of the four year program is twofold: First, enable students for intercultural communication between English and other languages such as Spanish, Mandarin, French or German. Second, students will acquire knowledge in practical software and relevant employable skills to collaborate in assisted computer projects that most probable will require essential programing background in interpreted or compiled languages. In order to become inclusive and constructivist, the cognitive linguistics approach is suggested for the three different fields, particularly for languages that rely on the traditional method of repetition. This methodology will help students develop their creativity and encourage them to become independent problem solving individuals, as languages enhance their common ground of interaction for culture and technology. Participants in this course of study will be evaluated in their second language acquisition at the Intermediate-High level. For graphic design and computer science students will apply their creative digital skills, as well as their critical thinking skills learned from the cognitive linguistics approach, to collaborate on a group project design to find solutions for media web design problems or marketing experimentation for a company or the community. It is understood that it will be necessary to apply programming knowledge and skills to deliver the final product. In conclusion, the program equips students with linguistics knowledge and skills to be competent in intercultural communication, where English, the lingua franca, remains the medium for marketing and product delivery. In addition to their employability, students can expand their knowledge and skills in digital humanities, computational linguistics, or increase their portfolio in advertising and marketing. These students will be the global human capital for the competitive globalizing community.

Keywords: curriculum, international, languages, technology

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Authors: Sendy Ghirardi, Pau Rausell Köster

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The European Commission increasingly pushes cultural policies towards social outcomes and local and regional authorities also call for culture-driven strategies for local development and prosperity and therefore, the measurement of cultural participation becomes increasingly more significant for evidence-based policy-making processes. Cultural participation involves various kinds of social and economic spillovers that combine social and economic objectives of value creation, including social sustainability and respect for human values. Traditionally, from the economic perspective, cultural consumption is measured by the value of financial transactions in purchasing, subscribing to, or renting cultural equipment and content, addressing the market value of cultural products and services. The main sources of data are the household spending survey and merchandise trade survey, among others. However, what characterizes the cultural consumption is that it is linked with the hedonistic and affective dimension rather than the utilitarian one. In fact, nowadays, more and more attention is being paid to the social and psychological dimensions of culture. The aim of this work is to present a comprehensive approach to measure the impacts of cultural participation and cultural users’ behaviour, combining both socio-psychological and economic approaches. The model combines contingent evaluation techniques with the individual characteristic and perception analysis of the cultural experiences to evaluate the cognitive, aesthetic, emotive and social impacts of cultural participation. To investigate the comprehensive approach to measure the impact of the cultural events on individuals, the research has been designed on the basis of prior theoretical development. A deep literature methodology has been done to develop the theoretical model applied to the web platform to measure the impacts of cultural experience on individuals. The developed framework aims to become a democratic tool for evaluating the services that cultural or policy institutions can adopt through the use of an interacting platform that produces big data benefiting academia, cultural management and policies. The Au Culture is a prototype based on an application that can be used on mobile phones or any other digital platform. The development of the AU Culture Platform has been funded by the Valencian Innovation Agency (Government of the Region of Valencia) and it is part of the Horizon 2020 project MESOC.

Keywords: comprehensive approach, cultural participation, economic dimension, socio-psychological dimension

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Authors: Stefanie Behncke

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This paper analyses the effects of different macroprudential policy measures that have recently been implemented in Switzerland. Among them is the activation and the increase of the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) and a tightening of loan-to-value (LTV) requirements. These measures were introduced to limit systemic risks in the Swiss mortgage and real estate markets. They were meant to affect mortgage growth, mortgage risks, and banks’ capital buffers. Evaluation of their quantitative effects provides insights for Swiss policymakers when reassessing their policy. It is also informative for policymakers in other countries who plan to introduce macroprudential instruments. We estimate the effects of the different macroprudential measures with a Differences-in-Differences estimator. Banks differ with respect to the relative importance of mortgages in their portfolio, their riskiness, and their capital buffers. Thus, some of the banks were more affected than others by the CCB, while others were more affected by the LTV requirements. Our analysis is made possible by an unusually informative bank panel data set. It combines data on newly issued mortgage loans and quantitative risk indicators such as LTV and loan-to-income (LTI) ratios with supervisory information on banks’ capital and liquidity situation and balance sheets. Our results suggest that the LTV cap of 90% was most effective. The proportion of new mortgages with a high LTV ratio was significantly reduced. This result does not only apply to the 90% LTV, but also to other threshold values (e.g. 80%, 75%) suggesting that the entire upper part of the LTV distribution was affected. Other outcomes such as the LTI distribution, the growth rates of mortgages and other credits, however, were not significantly affected. Regarding the activation and the increase of the CCB, we do not find any significant effects: neither LTV/LTI risk parameters nor mortgage and other credit growth rates were significantly reduced. This result may reflect that the size of the CCB (1% of relevant residential real estate risk-weighted assets at activation, respectively 2% at the increase) was not sufficiently high enough to trigger a distinct reaction between the banks most likely to be affected by the CCB and those serving as controls. Still, it might be have been effective in increasing the resilience in the overall banking system. From a policy perspective, these results suggest that targeted macroprudential policy measures can contribute to financial stability. In line with findings by others, caps on LTV reduced risk taking in Switzerland. To fully assess the effectiveness of the CCB, further experience is needed.

Keywords: banks, financial stability, macroprudential policy, mortgages

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Authors: Dean A. McCorkle, Ed W. Hellman, Rebekka M. Dudensing, Dan D. Hanselka

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The motivation for this study centers on the labor- and cost-intensive nature of wine and table grape production in the U.S., and the potential opportunities for precision mechanization using robotics to augment those production tasks that are labor-intensive. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the economic viability of grape production in five U.S. states under current operating conditions, identify common production challenges and tasks that could be augmented with new technology, and quantify a maximum price for new technology that growers would be able to pay. Wine and table grape production is primed for precision mechanization technology as it faces a variety of production and labor issues. Methodology: Using a grower panel process, this project includes the development of a representative wine grape vineyard in five states and a representative table grape vineyard in California. The panels provided production, budget, and financial-related information that are typical for vineyards in their area. Labor costs for various production tasks are of particular interest. Using the data from the representative budget, 10-year projected financial statements have been developed for the representative vineyard and evaluated using a stochastic simulation model approach. Labor costs for selected vineyard production tasks were evaluated for the potential of new precision mechanization technology being developed. These tasks were selected based on a variety of factors, including input from the panel members, and the extent to which the development of new technology was deemed to be feasible. The net present value (NPV) of the labor cost over seven years for each production task was derived. This allowed for the calculation of a maximum price for new technology whereby the NPV of labor costs would equal the NPV of purchasing, owning, and operating new technology. Expected Results: The results from the stochastic model will show the projected financial health of each representative vineyard over the 2015-2024 timeframe. Investigators have developed a preliminary list of production tasks that have the potential for precision mechanization. For each task, the labor requirements, labor costs, and the maximum price for new technology will be presented and discussed. Together, these results will allow technology developers to focus and prioritize their research and development efforts for wine and table grape vineyards, and suggest opportunities to strengthen vineyard profitability and long-term viability using precision mechanization.

Keywords: net present value, robotic technology, stochastic simulation, wine and table grapes

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Authors: Ayat-Allah Bouramdane

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Since 2010, there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of onshore wind energy and large increases in its deployment, varying widely across regions. In fact, the onshore wind production is affected by air density— because cold air is more dense and therefore more effective at producing wind power— and by wind speed—as wind turbines cannot operate in very low or extreme stormy winds. The wind speed is essentially affected by the surface friction or the roughness and other topographic features of the land, which slow down winds significantly over the continent. Hence, the identification of the most appropriate locations of onshore wind systems is crucial to maximize their energy output and therefore minimize their Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE). This study focuses on the preliminary assessment of onshore wind energy potential, in several areas in Morocco with a particular focus on the Dakhla city, by analyzing the diurnal and seasonal variability of wind speed for different hub heights, the frequency distribution of wind speed, the wind rose and the wind performance indicators such as wind power density, capacity factor, and LCOE. In addition to climate criterion, other criteria (i.e., topography, location, environment) were selected fromGeographic Referenced Information (GRI), reflecting different considerations. The impact of each criterion on the suitability map of onshore wind farms was identified using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). We find that the majority of suitable zones are located along the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea. We discuss the sensitivity of the onshore wind site suitability to different aspects such as the methodology—by comparing the Multi-Criteria Decision-Making (MCDM)-AHP results to the Mean-Variance Portfolio optimization framework—and the potential impact of climate change on this suitability map, and provide the final recommendations to the Moroccan energy strategy by analyzing if the actual Morocco's onshore wind installations are located within areas deemed suitable. This analysis may serve as a decision-making framework for cost-effective investment in onshore wind power in Morocco and to shape the future sustainable development of the Dakhla city.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process (ahp), dakhla, geographic referenced information, morocco, multi-criteria decision-making, onshore wind, site suitability.

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Nafees Ahmed, Nur Izyani Kamaruzman, Saralla Nathan, Mohd Ezharul Hoque Chowdhury, Anuar Zaini Md Zain, Iekhsan Othman, Sharifah Binti Syed Hassan

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Meat quality is always subject to consumer scrutiny when purchasing from retail markets on mislabeling as fresh meat. Various physiological and biochemical changes influence the quality of meat. As a major component of muscle tissue, proteins play a major role in muscle foods. In meat industry, freezing is the most common form of storage of meat products. Repeated cycles of freezing and thawing are common in restaurants, kitchen, and retail outlets and can also occur during transportation or storage. Temperature fluctuation is responsible for physical, chemical, and biochemical changes. Repeated cycles of ‘freeze-thaw’ degrade the quality of meat by stimulating the lipid oxidation and surface discoloration. The shelf life of meat is usually determined by its appearance, texture, color, flavor, microbial activity, and nutritive value and is influenced by frozen storage and subsequent thawing. The main deterioration of frozen meat during storage is due to protein. Due to the large price differences between fresh and frozen–thawed meat, it is of great interest to consumer to know whether a meat product is truly fresh or not. Researchers have mainly focused on the reduction of moisture loss due to freezing and thawing cycles of meat. The water holding capacity (WHC) of muscle proteins and reduced water content are key quality parameters of meat that ultimately changes color and texture. However, there has been limited progress towards understanding the actual mechanisms behind the meat quality changes under the freeze–thaw cycles. Furthermore, effect of freeze-thaw process on integrity of proteins is ignored. In this paper, we have studied the effect of ‘freeze-thawing’ on physicochemical changes of chicken meat protein. We have assessed the quality of meat by pH, spectroscopic measurements, Western Blot. Our results showed that increase in freeze-thaw cycles causes changes in pH. Measurements of absorbance (UV-visible and IR) indicated the degradation of proteins. The expression of various proteins (CREB, AKT, MAPK, GAPDH, and phosphorylated forms) were performed using Western Blot. These results indicated the repeated cycles of freeze-thaw is responsible for deterioration of protein, thus causing decrease in nutritious value of meat. It damges the use of these products in Islamic Sharia.

Keywords: chicken meat, freeze-thaw, halal, protein, western blot

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Authors: Agnieszka Zalejska-Jonsson

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The Swedish Green Building Council (SGBC) was established in 2009. Since then, over 1000 buildings have been certified, of which approximately 600 are newly produced and 340 are residential buildings. During that time, approximately 2000 apartment buildings have been built in Sweden. This means that over a five- year period 17% of residential buildings have been certified according to the environmental building scheme. The certification of the building is not a guarantee of environmental progress but it gives us an indication of the extent of the progress. The overarching aim of this study is to investigate the factors behind the relatively slow evolution of the green residential housing market in Sweden. The intention is to examine stated willingness to pay (WTP) for green and low energy apartments, and to explore which factors have a significant effect on stated WTP among apartment owners. A green building was defined as a building certified according to the environmental scheme and a low energy building as a building designed and constructed with high energy efficiency goals. Data for this study were collected through a survey conducted among occupants of comparable apartment buildings: two green and one conventional. The total number of received responses was 429: green A (N=160), response rate 42%; green B (N=138) response rate 35%, and conventional (N=131) response rate 43%. The study applied a quasi-experimental method. Survey responses regarding factors affecting purchase of apartment, stated WTP and environmental literacy have been analysed using descriptive statistics, the Mann–Whitney (rank sum) test and logistic models. Comments received from respondents have been used for further interpretation of results. Results indicate that environmental education has a significant effect on stated WTP. Occupants who declared higher WTP showed a higher level of environmental literacy and indicated that energy efficiency was one of the important factors that affected their decision to buy an apartment. Generally, the respondents were more likely to pay more for low energy buildings than for green buildings. This is to a great extent a consequence of rational customer behaviour and difficulty in apprehending the meaning of green building certification. The analysis shows that people living in green buildings indicate higher WTP for both green and low energy buildings, the difference being statistically significant. It is concluded that growth in the green housing market in Sweden might be achieved if policymakers and developers engage in active education in the environmental labelling system. The demand for green buildings is more likely to increase when the difference between green and conventional buildings is easily understood and information is not only delivered by the estate agent, but is part of an environmental education programme.

Keywords: consumer, environmental education, housing market, stated WTP, Sweden

Procedia PDF Downloads 223

Authors: Ibrahim Burki

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Unfortunately, all organizations (Industrial and Humanitarian/ Non-governmental organizations) are prone to fraud and corruption in their supply chain management routines. The reputational and financial fallout can be disastrous. With the growing number of companies using suppliers based in the local market has certainly increased the threat of fraud as well as corruption. There are various potential threats like, poor or non-existent record keeping, purchasing of lower quality goods at higher price, excessive entertainment of staff by suppliers, deviations in communications between procurement staff and suppliers, such as calls or text messaging to mobile phones, staff demanding extended periods of notice before they allow an audit to take place, inexperienced buyers and more. But despite all the above-mentioned threats, this research paper emphasize upon the effectiveness of well-maintained vendor/s records and sorting/filtration of vendor/s to cut down the possible threats of corruption and fraud. This exercise is applied in a humanitarian organization of Pakistan but it is applicable to whole South Asia region due to the similarity of culture and contexts. In that firm, there were more than 550 (five hundred and fifty) registered vendors. As during the disasters or emergency phases requirements are met on urgent basis thus, providing golden opportunities for the fake companies or for the brother/sister companies of the already registered companies to be involved in the tendering process without declaration or even under some different (new) company’s name. Therefore, a list of required documents (along with checklist) was developed and sent to all of the vendor(s) in the current database and based upon the receipt of the requested documents vendors were sorted out. Furthermore, these vendors were divided into active (meeting the entire set criterion) and non-active groups. This initial filtration stage allowed the firm to continue its work without a complete shutdown that is only vendors falling in the active group shall be allowed to participate in the tenders by the time whole process is completed. Likewise only those companies or firms meeting the set criterion (active category) shall be allowed to get registered in the future along with a dedicated filing system (soft and hard shall be maintained), and all of the companies/firms in the active group shall be physically verified (visited) by the Committee comprising of senior members of at least Finance department, Supply Chain (other than procurement) and Security department.

Keywords: corruption reduction, fraud prevention, supplier management, industrial/humanitarian organizations

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Authors: Shakila N. Senarath, Dinesh Asanka, Janaka Wijayanayake

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The necessity of cosmetic products is arising to fulfill consumer needs of personality appearance and hygiene. A cosmetic product consists of various chemical ingredients which may help to keep the skin healthy or may lead to damages. Every chemical ingredient in a cosmetic product does not perform on every human. The most appropriate way to select a healthy cosmetic product is to identify the texture of the body first and select the most suitable product with safe ingredients. Therefore, the selection process of cosmetic products is complicated. Consumer surveys have shown most of the time, the selection process of cosmetic products is done in an improper way by consumers. From this study, a content-based system is suggested that recommends cosmetic products for the human factors. To such an extent, the skin type, gender and price range will be considered as human factors. The proposed system will be implemented by using Machine Learning. Consumer skin type, gender and price range will be taken as inputs to the system. The skin type of consumer will be derived by using the Baumann Skin Type Questionnaire, which is a value-based approach that includes several numbers of questions to derive the user’s skin type to one of the 16 skin types according to the Bauman Skin Type indicator (BSTI). Two datasets are collected for further research proceedings. The user data set was collected using a questionnaire given to the public. Those are the user dataset and the cosmetic dataset. Product details are included in the cosmetic dataset, which belongs to 5 different kinds of product categories (Moisturizer, Cleanser, Sun protector, Face Mask, Eye Cream). An alternate approach of TF-IDF (Term Frequency – Inverse Document Frequency) is applied to vectorize cosmetic ingredients in the generic cosmetic products dataset and user-preferred dataset. Using the IF-IPF vectors, each user-preferred products dataset and generic cosmetic products dataset can be represented as sparse vectors. The similarity between each user-preferred product and generic cosmetic product will be calculated using the cosine similarity method. For the recommendation process, a similarity matrix can be used. Higher the similarity, higher the match for consumer. Sorting a user column from similarity matrix in a descending order, the recommended products can be retrieved in ascending order. Even though results return a list of similar products, and since the user information has been gathered, such as gender and the price ranges for product purchasing, further optimization can be done by considering and giving weights for those parameters once after a set of recommended products for a user has been retrieved.

Keywords: content-based filtering, cosmetics, machine learning, recommendation system

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

Procedia PDF Downloads 185

Authors: Chiranjit Das, Sanjay Jharkharia

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This study is focused on transport mode selection under lead time variability and emissions constraint. In order to reduce the carbon emissions generation due to transportation, organization has often faced a dilemmatic choice of transport mode selection since logistic cost and emissions reduction are complementary with each other. Another important aspect of transportation decision is lead-time variability which is least considered in transport mode selection problem. Thus, in this study, we provide a comprehensive mathematical based analytical model to decide transport mode selection under emissions constraint. We also extend our work through analysing the effect of lead time variability in the transport mode selection by a sensitivity analysis. In order to account lead time variability into the model, two identically normally distributed random variables are incorporated in this study including unit lead time variability and lead time demand variability. Therefore, in this study, we are addressing following questions: How the decisions of transport mode selection will be affected by lead time variability? How lead time variability will impact on total supply chain cost under carbon emissions? To accomplish these objectives, a total transportation cost function is developed including unit purchasing cost, unit transportation cost, emissions cost, holding cost during lead time, and penalty cost for stock out due to lead time variability. A set of modes is available to transport each node, in this paper, we consider only four transport modes such as air, road, rail, and water. Transportation cost, distance, emissions level for each transport mode is considered as deterministic and static in this paper. Each mode is having different emissions level depending on the distance and product characteristics. Emissions cost is indirectly affected by the lead time variability if there is any switching of transport mode from lower emissions prone transport mode to higher emissions prone transport mode in order to reduce penalty cost. We provide a numerical analysis in order to study the effectiveness of the mathematical model. We found that chances of stock out during lead time will be higher due to the higher variability of lead time and lad time demand. Numerical results show that penalty cost of air transport mode is negative that means chances of stock out zero, but, having higher holding and emissions cost. Therefore, air transport mode is only selected when there is any emergency order to reduce penalty cost, otherwise, rail and road transport is the most preferred mode of transportation. Thus, this paper is contributing to the literature by a novel approach to decide transport mode under emissions cost and lead time variability. This model can be extended by studying the effect of lead time variability under some other strategic transportation issues such as modal split option, full truck load strategy, and demand consolidation strategy etc.

Keywords: carbon emissions, inventory theoretic model, lead time variability, transport mode selection

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Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

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Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

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Authors: Minna-Maari Harmaala, Hanna Harilainen

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Estimates of the economic value of transitioning to circular economy models vary but it has been estimated to represent $1 trillion worth of new business into the global economy. In Europe alone, estimates claim that adopting circular-economy principles could not only have environmental and social benefits but also generate a net economic benefit of €1.8 trillion by 2030. Proponents of a circular economy argue that it offers a major opportunity to increase resource productivity, decrease resource dependence and waste, and increase employment and growth. A circular system could improve competitiveness and unleash innovation. Yet, most companies are not capturing these opportunities and thus the even abundant circular opportunities remain uncaptured even though they would seem inherently profitable. Service design in broad terms relates to developing an existing or a new service or service concept with emphasis and focus on the customer experience from the onset of the development process. Service design may even mean starting from scratch and co-creating the service concept entirely with the help of customer involvement. Service design methodologies provide a structured way of incorporating customer understanding and involvement in the process of designing better services with better resonance to customer needs. A business model is a depiction of how the company creates, delivers, and captures value; i.e. how it organizes its business. The process of business model development and adjustment or modification is also called business model innovation. Innovating business models has become a part of business strategy. Our hypothesis is that in addition to linear models still being easier to adopt and often with lower threshold costs, companies lack an understanding of how circular models can be adopted into their business and how customers will be willing and ready to adopt the new circular business models. In our research, we use robust service design methodology to develop circular economy solutions with two case study companies. The aim of the process is to not only develop the service concepts and portfolio, but to demonstrate the willingness to adopt circular solutions exists in the customer base. In addition to service design, we employ business model innovation methods to develop, test, and validate the new circular business models further. The results clearly indicate that amongst the customer groups there are specific customer personas that are willing to adopt and in fact are expecting the companies to take a leading role in the transition towards a circular economy. At the same time, there is a group of indifferents, to whom the idea of circularity provides no added value. In addition, the case studies clearly show what changes adoption of circular economy principles brings to the existing business model and how they can be integrated.

Keywords: business model innovation, circular economy, circular economy business models, service design

Procedia PDF Downloads 109

Authors: Zsolt János Viharos, Krisztián Balázs Kis, Imre Paniti, Gábor Belső, Péter Németh, János Farkas

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The paper presents the results and industrial applications in the production setup period estimation based on industrial data inherited from the field of polymer cutting. The literature of polymer cutting is very limited considering the number of publications. The first polymer cutting machine is known since the second half of the 20th century; however, the production of polymer parts with this kind of technology is still a challenging research topic. The products of the applying industrial partner must met high technical requirements, as they are used in medical, measurement instrumentation and painting industry branches. Typically, 20% of these parts are new work, which means every five years almost the entire product portfolio is replaced in their low series manufacturing environment. Consequently, it requires a flexible production system, where the estimation of the frequent setup periods' lengths is one of the key success factors. In the investigation, several (input) parameters have been studied and grouped to create an adequate training information set for an artificial neural network as a base for the estimation of the individual setup periods. In the first group, product information is collected such as the product name and number of items. The second group contains material data like material type and colour. In the third group, surface quality and tolerance information are collected including the finest surface and tightest (or narrowest) tolerance. The fourth group contains the setup data like machine type and work shift. One source of these parameters is the Manufacturing Execution System (MES) but some data were also collected from Computer Aided Design (CAD) drawings. The number of the applied tools is one of the key factors on which the industrial partners’ estimations were based previously. The artificial neural network model was trained on several thousands of real industrial data. The mean estimation accuracy of the setup periods' lengths was improved by 30%, and in the same time the deviation of the prognosis was also improved by 50%. Furthermore, an investigation on the mentioned parameter groups considering the manufacturing order was also researched. The paper also highlights the manufacturing introduction experiences and further improvements of the proposed methods, both on the shop floor and on the quotation preparation fields. Every week more than 100 real industrial setup events are given and the related data are collected.

Keywords: artificial neural network, low series manufacturing, polymer cutting, setup period estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 227