Search results for: climate change vulnerability

Authors: Rima Almalla

Abstract:

The purpose of the research project in Geography is to evaluate the applicability of urban green infrastructure approach in Finnish climate. The key focus will be on the operation and efficiency of green infrastructure on urban stormwater management. Green infrastructure approach refers to the employment of sufficient green covers as a modern and smart environmental solution to improve the quality of urban environments. Green infrastructure provides a wide variety of micro-scale ecosystem services, such as stormwater runoff management, regulation of extreme air temperatures, reduction of energy consumption, plus a variety of social benefits and human health and wellbeing. However, the cold climate of Finland with seasonal ground frost, snow cover and relatively short growing season bring about questions of whether green infrastructure works as efficiently as expected. To tackle this question, green infrastructure solutions will be studied and analyzed with manifold methods: stakeholder perspectives regarding existing and planned GI solutions will be collected by web based questionnaires, semi structured interviews and group discussions, and analyzed in both qualitative and quantitative methods. Targeted empirical field campaigns will be conducted on selected sites. A systematic literature review with global perspective will support the analyses. The findings will be collected, compiled and analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS). The findings of the research will improve our understanding of the functioning of green infrastructure in the Finnish environment in urban stormwater management, as a landscape element for citizens’ wellbeing, and in climate change mitigation and adaptation. The acquired information will be shared with stakeholders in interactive co-design workshops. As green covers have great demand and potential globally, the conclusions will have relevance in other cool climate regions and may support Finnish business in green infrastructure sector.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, climate change, green infrastructure, stormwater

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Authors: Nadir A. Carreon, Christa Sonderer, Aakarsh Rao, Roman Lysecky

Abstract:

With the advent of complex software and increased connectivity, the security of life-critical medical devices is becoming an increasing concern, particularly with their direct impact on human safety. Security is essential, but it is impossible to develop completely secure and impenetrable systems at design time. Therefore, it is important to assess the potential impact on the security and safety of exploiting a vulnerability in such critical medical systems. The common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) calculates the severity of exploitable vulnerabilities. However, for medical devices it does not consider the unique challenges of impacts to human health and privacy. Thus, the scoring of a medical device on which human life depends (e.g., pacemakers, insulin pumps) can score very low, while a system on which human life does not depend (e.g., hospital archiving systems) might score very high. In this paper, we propose a medical vulnerability scoring system (MVSS) that extends CVSS to address the health and privacy concerns of medical devices. We propose incorporating two new parameters, namely health impact, and sensitivity impact. Sensitivity refers to the type of information that can be stolen from the device, and health represents the impact on the safety of the patient if the vulnerability is exploited (e.g., potential harm, life-threatening). We evaluate fifteen different known vulnerabilities in medical devices and compare MVSS against two state-of-the-art medical device-oriented vulnerability scoring systems and the foundational CVSS.

Keywords: common vulnerability system, medical devices, medical device security, vulnerabilities

Procedia PDF Downloads 169

Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

Abstract:

Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: Fikiru Temesgen Gelata

Abstract:

Food security, adaptation, and climate change mitigation are all problems that can be resolved simultaneously with Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA). This study examines determinants of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) practices among smallholder farmers, aiming to understand the factors guiding adoption decisions and evaluate the impact of CSA on smallholder farmer income in the study areas. For this study, three-stage sampling techniques were applied to select 230 smallholders randomly. Mann-Kendal test and multinomial endogenous switching regression model were used to analyze trends of decrease or increase within long-term temporal data and the impact of CSA on the smallholder farmer income, respectively. Findings revealed education level, household size, land ownership, off-farm income, climate information, and contact with extension agents found to be highly adopted CSA practices. On the contrary, erosion exerted a detrimental impact on all the agricultural practices examined within the study region. Various factors such as farming methods, the size of farms, proximity to irrigated farmlands, availability of extension services, distance to market hubs, and access to weather forecasts were recognized as key determinants influencing the adoption of CSA practices. The multinomial endogenous switching regression model (MESR) revealed that joint adoption of crop rotation and soil and water conservation practices significantly increased farm income by 1,107,245 ETB. The study recommends that counties and governments should prioritize addressing climate change in their development agendas to increase the adoption of climate-smart farming techniques.

Keywords: climate-smart practices, food security, Oincome, MERM, Ethiopia

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Authors: Arragaw Alemayehu, Woldeamlak Bewket

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to understand the influence of current climate variability on crop production in the central highlands of Ethiopia. We used monthly rainfall and temperature data from 132 points each representing a pixel of 10×10 km. The data are reconstructions based on station records and meteorological satellite observations. Production data of the five major crops in the area were collected from the Central Statistical Agency for the period 2004-2013 and for the main cropping season, locally known as Meher. The production data are at the Enumeration Area (EA ) level and hence the best available dataset on crop production. The results show statistically significant decreasing trends in March–May (Belg) rainfall in the area. However, June – September (Kiremt) rainfall showed increasing trends in Efratana Gidim and Menz Gera Meder which the latter is statistically significant. Annual rainfall also showed positive trends in the area except Basona Werana where significant negative trends were observed. On the other hand, maximum and minimum temperatures showed warming trends in the study area. Correlation results have shown that crop production and area of cultivation have positive correlation with rainfall, and negative with temperature. When the trends in crop production are investigated, most crops showed negative trends and below average production was observed. Regression results have shown that rainfall was the most important determinant of crop production in the area. It is concluded that current climate variability has a significant influence on crop production in the area and any unfavorable change in the local climate in the future will have serious implications for household level food security. Efforts to adapt to the ongoing climate change should begin from tackling the current climate variability and take a climate risk management approach.

Keywords: central highlands, climate variability, crop production, Ethiopia, regression, trend

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Authors: Thi Thanh Nga Pham, Damien Philippon, Alexis Drogoul, Thi Thu Thuy Nguyen, Tien Cong Nguyen

Abstract:

Mekong River Delta region of Vietnam is recognized as one of the most vulnerable to climate change due to flooding and seawater rise and therefore an increased burden of climate change-related diseases. Changes in temperature and precipitation are likely to alter the incidence and distribution of vector-borne diseases such as dengue fever. In this region, the peak of the dengue epidemic period is around July to September during the rainy season. It is believed that climate is an important factor for dengue transmission. This study aims to enhance the capacity of dengue prediction by the relationship of dengue incidences with climate and environmental variables for Mekong River Delta of Vietnam during 2005-2015. Mathematical models for vector-host infectious disease, including larva, mosquito, and human being were used to calculate the impacts of climate to the dengue transmission with incorporating geospatial data for model input. Monthly dengue incidence data were collected at provincial level. Precipitation data were extracted from satellite observations of GSMaP (Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation), land surface temperature and land cover data were from MODIS. The value of seasonal reproduction number was estimated to evaluate the potential, severity and persistence of dengue infection, while the final infected number was derived to check the outbreak of dengue. The result shows that the dengue infection depends on the seasonal variation of climate variables with the peak during the rainy season and predicted dengue incidence follows well with this dynamic for the whole studied region. However, the highest outbreak of 2007 dengue was not captured by the model reflecting nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate. Other possible effects will be discussed to address the limitation of the model. This suggested the need of considering of both climate variables and another variability across temporal and spatial scales.

Keywords: infectious disease, dengue, geospatial data, climate

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

Abstract:

With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

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Authors: Buruk Kitachew Wossenyeleh

Abstract:

Groundwater is the largest freshwater reservoir in the world. Like the other reservoirs of the hydrologic cycle, it is a finite resource. This study focused on the groundwater modeling of the Ter Kamerenbos well field to understand the groundwater flow system and the impact of different scenarios. The study area covers 68.9Km2 in the Brussels Capital Region and is situated in two river catchments, i.e., Zenne River and Woluwe Stream. The aquifer system has three layers, but in the modeling, they are considered as one layer due to their hydrogeological properties. The catchment aquifer system is replenished by direct recharge from rainfall. The groundwater recharge of the catchment is determined using the spatially distributed water balance model called WetSpass, and it varies annually from zero to 340mm. This groundwater recharge is used as the top boundary condition for the groundwater modeling of the study area. During the groundwater modeling using Processing MODFLOW, constant head boundary conditions are used in the north and south boundaries of the study area. For the east and west boundaries of the study area, head-dependent flow boundary conditions are used. The groundwater model is calibrated manually and automatically using observed hydraulic heads in 12 observation wells. The model performance evaluation showed that the root means the square error is 1.89m and that the NSE is 0.98. The head contour map of the simulated hydraulic heads indicates the flow direction in the catchment, mainly from the Woluwe to Zenne catchment. The simulated head in the study area varies from 13m to 78m. The higher hydraulic heads are found in the southwest of the study area, which has the forest as a land-use type. This calibrated model was run for the climate change scenario and well operation scenario. Climate change may cause the groundwater recharge to increase by 43% and decrease by 30% in 2100 from current conditions for the high and low climate change scenario, respectively. The groundwater head varies for a high climate change scenario from 13m to 82m, whereas for a low climate change scenario, it varies from 13m to 76m. If doubling of the pumping discharge assumed, the groundwater head varies from 13m to 76.5m. However, if the shutdown of the pumps is assumed, the head varies in the range of 13m to 79m. It is concluded that the groundwater model is done in a satisfactory way with some limitations, and the model output can be used to understand the aquifer system under steady-state conditions. Finally, some recommendations are made for the future use and improvement of the model.

Keywords: Ter Kamerenbos, groundwater modelling, WetSpass, climate change, well operation

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Authors: Emilia Hunt, Sally C. Reynolds, Fiona Coward, Fabio Parracho Silva, Philip Hopley

Abstract:

Ecological niche modeling is widely used in conservation studies, but application to the extinct hominin species is a relatively new approach. Being able to understand what ecological niches were occupied by respective hominin species provides a new perspective into influences on evolutionary processes. Niche separation or overlap can tell us more about specific requirements of the species within the given timeframe. Many of the ancestral species lived through enormous climate changes: glacial and interglacial periods, changes in rainfall, leading to desertification or flooding of regions and displayed impressive levels of adaptation necessary for their survival. This paper reviews niche modeling methodologies and their application to hominin studies. Traditional conservation methods might not be directly applicable to extinct species and are not comparable to hominins. Hominin niche also includes aspects of technologies, use of fire and extended communication, which are not traditionally used in building conservation models. Future perspectives on how to improve niche modeling for extinct hominin species will be discussed.

Keywords: hominin niche, climate change, evolution, adaptation, ecological niche modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 190

Authors: Mirza Waseem Abbas, Abdul Qayyum, Muhammad Islam

Abstract:

Climate change has emerged as a significant threat to global food security, affecting crop production systems worldwide. This research paper aims to examine the specific impacts of climate change on wheat production in Pakistan, Punjab in particular, a country highly dependent on wheat as a staple food crop. Through a comprehensive review of scientific literature, field observations, and data analysis, this study assesses the key climatic factors influencing wheat cultivation and the subsequent implications for food security in the region. A comparison of two subsequent Wheat seasons in Punjab was examined through climatic conditions, area, yield, and production data. From the analysis, it is observed that despite a decrease in the area under cultivation in the Punjab during the Wheat 2023 season, the production and average yield increased due to favorable weather conditions. These uncertain climatic conditions have a direct impact on crop yields. Last year due to heat waves, Wheat crop in Punjab suffered a significant loss. Through crop insurance, Wheat growers were provided with yield loss protection keeping in view the devastating heat wave and floods last year. Under crop insurance by the Government of the Punjab, 534,587 Wheat growers were insured with a $1.6 million premium subsidy. However, due to better climatic conditions, no loss in the yield was recorded in the insured areas. Crop Insurance is one of the suitable options for policymakers to protect farmers against climatic losses in the future as well.

Keywords: climate change, crop insurance, heatwave, wheat yield punjab

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Authors: Lameck Zetu Khonje, Mulala Danny Simatele

Abstract:

The tourism industry in Malawi has grown tremendously during the past twenty-five years. This growth is attributed to the change in the political system which opened doors to international tourist and investment opportunities in the country which previously was under a strict repressive one-party political system. This research paper focuses on the developments that took place in the accommodation sector during the same period and the impact that it has partly caused on an environmental metabolic rift in the country which is now vulnerable to climate change-related catastrophes. Respondents from the government departments and the hotel sector were recruited for in-depth interviews. These interviews were conducted between July and November 2015 and follow up interviews were conducted between September and December 2017. Both results indicated there were minimal efforts pursued from the public sector to cartel capitalistic development tendencies in the accommodation sector. The results from the hotel revealed there were considerable efforts pursued driven by operating cost-cutting motive. Applying systems thinking the paper recommends that the policing machinery needs improvement to ensure that the industry also focuses on environmental wellbeing instead of profit maximization. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge on tourism development and climate change.

Keywords: accommodation sector, climate change, metabolic rift, Malawi, tourism industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 142

Authors: Yassine Messaoud, Gordon Nigh, Faouzi Messaoud, Han Chen

Abstract:

The effect of climate change on tree growth in boreal and temperate forests has received increased interest in the context of global warming. However, most studies were conducted in small areas and with a limited number of tree species. Here, we examined the height growth responses of seventeen tree species to climate change in Western North America. 37009 stands from forest inventory databases in Canada and USA with varying establishment date were selected. Dominant and co-dominant trees from each stand were sampled to determine top tree height at 50 years breast height age. Height was related to historical mean annual and summer temperatures, annual and summer Palmer Drought Severity Index, tree establishment date, slope, aspect, soil fertility as determined by the rate of carbon organic matter decomposition (carbon/nitrogen), geographic locations (latitude, longitude, and elevation), species range (coastal, interior, and both ranges), shade tolerance and leaf form (needle leaves, deciduous needle leaves, and broadleaves). Climate change had mostly a positive effect on tree height growth. The results explained 62.4% of the height growth variance. Since 1880, height growth increase was greater for coastal, high shade tolerant, and broadleaf species. Height growth increased more on steep slopes and high soil fertility soils. Greater height growth was mostly observed at the leading range and upward. Conversely, some species showed the opposite pattern probably due to the increase of drought (coastal Mediterranean area), precipitation and cloudiness (Alaska and British Columbia) and peculiarity (higher latitudes-lower elevations and vice versa) of western North America topography. This study highlights the role of the species ecological amplitude and traits, and geographic locations as the main factors determining the growth response and its magnitude to the recent global climate change.

Keywords: Height growth, global climate change, species range, species characteristics, species ecological amplitude, geographic locations, western North America

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Khan R. Rahaman, Quazi K. Hassan

Abstract:

Global changes in climate, environment, economies, populations, governments, institutions, and cultures converge in localities. Changes at a local scale, in turn, contribute to global changes as well as being affected by them. Our hypothesis is built on a consideration that temperature does vary at local level (i.e., termed as local warming) in comparison to the predicted models at the regional and/or global scale. To date, the bulk of the research relating local places to global climate change has been top-down, from the global toward the local, concentrating on methods of impact analysis that use as a starting point climate change scenarios derived from global models, even though these have little regional or local specificity. Thus, our focus is to understand such trends over the southern Alberta, which will enable decision makers, scientists, researcher community, and local people to adapt their policies based on local level temperature variations and to act accordingly. Specific objectives in this study are: (i) to understand the local warming (temperature in particular) trend in context of temperature normal during the period 1961-2010 at point locations using meteorological data; (ii) to validate the data by using specific yearly data, and (iii) to delineate the spatial extent of the local warming trends and understanding influential factors to adopt situation by local governments. Existing data has brought the evidence of such changes and future research emphasis will be given to validate this hypothesis based on remotely sensed data (i.e. MODIS product by NASA).

Keywords: local warming, climate change, urban area, Alberta, Canada

Procedia PDF Downloads 348

Authors: Murat Zencirkıran, Elvan Ender

Abstract:

Climate change, which has become effective on a global scale, is accompanied by an increase in negative conditions for human, plant and animal life. Especially these negative conditions (drought, warming, glowing, etc.) are felt more rapidly in urban life and affect the sustainability of green areas which are of great importance in terms of life comfort. In this context, the choice of woody taxa used in the design and design of green spaces in the city increase one more time. Within the scope of this study, two of four urban parks located in the city center of Bursa province were selected and evaluated for woody taxa. Urban parks have been identified as the oldest and newest urban park in Bursa, and it has been tried to emphasize the differences that may exist over time. It was determined that 54 woody taxa took place in Resat Oyal Kulturpark and 76 woody taxa in Hudavendigar Urban Park. These taxa have been evaluated in terms of water consumption and ecological tolerances by taking into account climate change, and suggestions have been developed against possible problems.

Keywords: ecological hardiness, urban park, water consumption, woody plants

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Authors: Halima Kilungu, Pantaleo, K. T. Munishi

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Climate and land-cover change affect nature-based tourism (NBT) due to its attractions' close connection to natural environments and climate. Thus, knowledge of how each attraction reacts to the changing environments and devising simple yet science based approaches to respond to these changes from a tourism perspective in space and time is timely. Nevertheless, no specific approaches exist to address the knowledge gap. The eco-parcel approach is devised to address the gap and operationalized in Serengeti and Kilimanjaro National Parks: the most climate-sensitive NBT destinations in Africa. The approach is partly descriptive and has three simple steps: (1) to identify and define tourist attractions (i.e. biotic and abiotic attractions). This creates an important database of the most poorly kept information on attractions' types in NBT destinations. (2) To create a spatial and temporal link of each attraction and describe its characteristic environments (e.g. vegetation, soil, water and rock outcrops). This is the most limited attractions' information yet important as a proxy of changes in attractions. (3) To assess the importance of individual attractions for tourism based on tourists' preferences. This information enables an accurate assessment of the value of individual attractions for tourism. The importance of the eco-parcel approach is that it describes how each attraction emerges from and is connected to specific environments, which define its attractiveness in space and time. This information allows accurate assessment of the likely losses or gains of individual attractions when climate or environment changes in specific destinations and equips tourism stakeholders with informed responses.

Keywords: climate change, environmental change, nature-based tourism, Serengeti National Park, Kilimanjaro National Park

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Authors: U. V. Okpala

Abstract:

Flood is an overflow of water that submerges or ‘drowns’ land. In developing countries it occurs as a result of blocking of natural and man-made drainages and poor maintenance of water dams/reservoirs which seldom give way after persistent heavy down pours. In coastal lowlands and swamp lands, flooding is aided mainly by blocked channels and indiscriminate sand fling of coastal swamp areas and natural drainage channel for urban development/constructions. In this paper, the causes of flood and possible scientific, technological, political, economic and social impacts of flood disaster on the environment a case study of Anambra State have been studied. Often times flooding is caused by climate change, especially in the developed economy where scientific mitigating options are highly employed. Researchers have identified Green Houses Gases (GHG) as the cause of global climate change. The recent flood disaster in Anambra State which caused physical damage to structures, social dislocation, contamination of clean drinking water, spread of water-borne diseases, shortage of crops and food supplies, death of non-tolerant tree species, disruption in transportation system, serious economic loss and psychological trauma is a function of climate change. There is need to encourage generation of renewable energy sources, use of less carbon intensive fuels and other energy efficient sources. Carbon capture/sequestration, proper management of our drainage systems and good maintenance of our dams are good option towards saving the environment.

Keywords: flooding, climate change, carbon capture, energy systems

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Authors: Peyman Mosberian-Tanha, Mona Rezaei

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Aquaculture sector is the fastest growing food sector with annual growth rate of about 10%. The sustainability of aquaculture production, however, has been debated mainly in relation to the feed ingredients used for farmed fish. The industry has been able to decrease its dependency on marine-based ingredients in line with policies for more sustainable production. As a result, plant-based ingredients have increasingly been incorporated in aquaculture feeds, especially in feeds for popular carnivorous species, salmonids. The effect of these ingredients on salmonids’ health and performance has been widely studied. In most cases, plant-based diets are associated with varying degrees of health and performance issues across salmonids, partly depending on inclusion levels of plant ingredients and the species in question. However, aquaculture sector is facing another challenge of concern. Environmental challenges in association with climate change is another issue the aquaculture sector must deal with. Data from trials in salmonids subjected to environmental challenges of various types show adverse physiological responses, partly in relation to stress. To date, there are only a limited number of studies reporting the interactive effects of adverse environmental conditions and dietary regimens on salmonids. These studies have shown that adverse environmental conditions exacerbate the detrimental effect of plant-based diets on digestive function and health in salmonids. This indicates an additional challenge for the aquaculture sector to grow in a sustainable manner. The adverse environmental conditions often studied in farmed fish is the change in certain water quality parameters such as oxygen and/or temperature that are typically altered in response to climate change and, more specifically, global warming. In a challenge study, we observed that the in the fish fed a plant-based diet, the fish’s ability to absorb dietary energy was further reduced when reared under low oxygen level. In addition, gut health in these fish was severely impaired. Some other studies also confirm the adverse effect of environmental challenge on fish’s gut health. These effects on the digestive function and gut health of salmonids may result in less resistance to diseases and weaker performance with significant economic and ethical implications. Overall, various findings indicate the multidimensional negative effects of climate change, as a major environmental issue, in different sectors, including aquaculture production. Therefore, a comprehensive evaluation of different ways to cope with climate change is essential for planning more sustainable strategies in aquaculture sector.

Keywords: aquaculture, climate change, sustainability, salmonids

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Authors: Fathul Mubin, Budi E. Nurcahya

Abstract:

In 2006, a large earthquake ever occurred in the province of Yogyakarta, which caused considerable damage. This is the basis need to investigate the seismic vulnerability index in around of the earthquake zone. This research is called microzonation of earthquake hazard. This research has been conducted at the site and surrounding of Prambanan Temple, includes homes and civil buildings. The reason this research needs to be done because in the event of an earthquake in 2006, there was damage to the temples at Prambanan temple complex and its surroundings. In this research, data collection carried out for 60 minutes using three component seismograph measurements at 165 points with spacing of 1000 meters. The data recorded in time function were analyzed using the spectral ratio method, known as the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR). Results from this analysis are dominant frequency (Fg) and maximum amplification factor (Ag) are used to obtain seismic vulnerability index. The results of research showed the dominant frequency range from 0.5 to 30 Hz and the amplification is in interval from 0.5 to 9. Interval value for seismic vulnerability index is 0.1 to 50. Based on distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index and impact of buildings damage seemed for suitability. For further research, it needs to survey to the east (klaten) and south (Bantul, DIY) to determine a full distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index.

Keywords: amplification factor, dominant frequency, microzonation analysis, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: Nada Mohamed, Abdel Aziz Mohamed

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Climate change in coastal areas is a global issue that can be felt on local scale and will be around for decades and centuries to come to an end; it also has critical risks on the city’s economy, communities, and the natural environment. One of these changes that cause a huge risk on coastal cities is the sea level rise (SLR). SLR is a result of scarcity and reduction in global environmental system. The main cause of climate change and global warming is the countries with high development index (HDI) as Japan and Germany while the medium and low HDI countries as Egypt does not have enough awareness and advanced tactics to adapt with this changes that destroy urban areas and cause loss in land and economy. This is why Climate Resilience is one of the UN sustainable development goals 2030, which is calling for actions to strengthen climate change resilience through mitigation and adaptation. For many reasons, adaptation has received less attention than mitigation and it is only recently that adaptation has become a focal global point of attention. This adaption can be achieved through some actions such as upgrading the use and the design of the land, adjusting business and activities of people, and increasing community understanding of climate risks. To reach the adaption goals, and we have to apply a strategic pathway to Climate Resilience, which is the Urban Bioregionalism Paradigm. Resiliency has been framed as persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Climate Resilience decision support system includes a visualization platform where ecological, social, and economic information can be viewed alongside with specific geographies that's why Urban Bioregionalism is a socio-ecological system which is defined as a paradigm that has potential to help move social attitudes toward environmental understanding and deepen human-environment connections within ecological development. The research aim is to achieve an adaptive integrated urban development model throughout the analyses of tactics and strategies that can be used to adapt urban areas and coastal communities to the challenges of climate changes especially SLR and also simulation model using advanced technological software for a coastal city corridor to elaborates the suitable strategy to apply.

Keywords: climate resilience, sea level rise, SLR, coastal resilience, adaptive development simulation

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Authors: Zhen Li, Chang Liu, Ping Zhang

Abstract:

These Glaciers are thought of as natural water reservoirs and are of vital importance to hydrological models and industrial production, and glacial changes act as significant indicators of climate change. The glacier snowline can be used as an indicator of the equilibrium line, which may be a key parameter to study the effect of climate change on glaciers. Using Google Earth Engine, we select optical satellite imageries and implement the Otsu thresholding method on a near-infrared band to detect snowline altitudes (SLAs) of 26 glaciers in three regions of the eastern Tibetan Plateau. Three different study regions in the eastern Tibetan Plateau have different climate regimes, which are Sepu Kangri (SK, maritime glacier), Bu’Gyai Kangri (BK, continental glacier) and west of Qiajajima (WQ, continental glacier), along a latitudinal transect from south to north. We analyzed the effects of climatic factors on the SLA changes from 1995 to 2016. SLAs are fluctuating upward, and the rising values are 100 m, 60 m, and 34 m from south to north during the 22 years. We also observed that the climatic factor that affects the variability of SLA gradually changes from precipitation to temperature from south to north. The northern continental glaciers are mainly affected by temperature, and the southern maritime glaciers affected by precipitation. Owing to the influence of primary climatic factors, continental glaciers are found to have higher SLAs on the south slope, while maritime glaciers have higher SLAs on the north slope.

Keywords: climate change, glacier, snowline altitude, tibetan plateau

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Authors: Gustavo Cruz-Bello

Abstract:

Progreso is a coastal community in Yucatan, Mexico, highly exposed to floods produced by severe storms and tropical cyclones. A participatory cartography approach was conducted to help to reduce floods disasters and assess social vulnerability within the community. The first step was to engage local authorities in risk management to facilitate the process. Two workshop were conducted, in the first, a poster size printed high spatial resolution satellite image of the town was used to gather information from the participants: eight women and seven men, among them construction workers, students, government employees and fishermen, their ages ranged between 23 and 58 years old. For the first task, participants were asked to locate emblematic places and place them in the image to familiarize with it. Then, they were asked to locate areas that get flooded, the buildings that they use as refuges, and to list actions that they usually take to reduce vulnerability, as well as to collectively come up with others that might reduce disasters. The spatial information generated at the workshops was digitized and integrated into a GIS environment. A printed version of the map was reviewed by local risk management experts, who validated feasibility of proposed actions. For the second workshop, we retrieved the information back to the community for feedback. Additionally a survey was applied in one household per block in the community to obtain socioeconomic, prevention and adaptation data. The information generated from the workshops was contrasted, through T and Chi Squared tests, with the survey data in order to probe the hypothesis that poorer or less educated people, are less prepared to face floods (more vulnerable) and live near or among higher presence of floods. Results showed that a great majority of people in the community are aware of the hazard and are prepared to face it. However, there was not a consistent relationship between regularly flooded areas with people’s average years of education, house services, or house modifications against heavy rains to be prepared to hazards. We could say that the participatory cartography intervention made participants aware of their vulnerability and made them collectively reflect about actions that can reduce disasters produced by floods. They also considered that the final map could be used as a communication and negotiation instrument with NGO and government authorities. It was not found that poorer and less educated people are located in areas with higher presence of floods.

Keywords: climate change, floods, Mexico, participatory mapping, social vulnerability

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Authors: Rodrigo Buaiz Boabaid

Abstract:

Tokenization of Blue Bonds is an emerging Green Finance tool that has the potential to scale Blue Carbon Projects to fight climate change. This innovative solution has a huge potential to democratize the green finance market and catalyze innovations in the climate change finance sector. Switzerland has emerged as a leader in the Green Finance space and is well-positioned to drive the adoption of Tokenization of Blue & Green Bonds. This unique approach has the potential to unlock new sources of capital and enable global investors to participate in the financing of sustainable blue carbon projects. By leveraging the power of blockchain technology, Tokenization of Blue Bonds can provide greater transparency, efficiency, and security in the investment process, while also reducing transaction costs. Investments are in line with the highest regulations and designed according to the stringent legal framework and compliance standards set by Switzerland. The potential benefits of Tokenization of Blue Bonds are significant and could transform the way that sustainable projects are financed. By unlocking new sources of capital, this approach has the potential to accelerate the deployment of Blue Carbon projects and create new opportunities for investors to participate in the fight against climate change.

Keywords: blue carbon, blue bonds, green finance, Tokenization, blockchain solutions

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Authors: Zahra Bakhtiari

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Middle East countries confront a multitude of main environmental challenges which are inevitable. The unstable economic and political structure which dominates numerous middle East countries makes it difficult to react effectively to unfavorable climate change impacts. This study applies a qualitative methodology and relies on secondary literature aimed to investigate how countries in the Middle East are balancing economic security and climatic security in terms of budgeting, infrastructure investment, political engagement (domestically through discourses or internationally in terms of participation in international organizations or bargaining, etc.) There has been provided an outline of innovative measures in both economic and environmental fields that are in progress in the Middle East countries and what capacity they have for economic development and environmental adaptation, as well as what has already been performed. The primary outcome is that countries that rely more on infrastructure investment such as negative emissions technologies (NET) through green social capital enterprises and political engagement, especially nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commitments and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), experience more economic and climatological security balance in the Middle East. Since implementing these measures is not the same in all countries in the region, we see different levels of balance between climate security and economic security. The overall suggestion is that the collaboration of both the bottom-up and top-down approaches helps create strategic environmental strategies which are in line with the economic circumstances of each country and creates the desired balance.

Keywords: climate change, economic growth, sustainability, the Middle East, green economy, renewable energy

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Authors: Omar Romero-Hernandez, Federico Castillo, Armando Sanchez, Sergio Romero, Andrea Romero, Michael Mitchell

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Environmental policies for resource conservation in rural areas include subsidies on services and social programs to cover living expenses. Government's expectation is that rural communities who benefit from social programs, such as payment for ecosystem services, are provided with an incentive to conserve natural resources and preserve natural sinks for greenhouse gases. At the same time, global climate change has affected the lives of people worldwide. The capability to adapt to global warming depends on the available resources and the standard of living, putting rural communities at a disadvantage. This paper explores whether rural entrepreneurship can represent a solution to resource conservation and global warming adaptation in rural communities. The research focuses on a sample of two coffee communities in Oaxaca, Mexico. Researchers used geospatial information contained in aerial photographs of the geographical areas of interest. Households were identified in the photos via the roofs of households and georeferenced via coordinates. From the household population, a random selection of roofs was performed and received a visit. A total of 112 surveys were completed, including questions of socio-demographics, perception to climate change and adaptation activities. The population includes two groups of study: entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs. Data was sorted, filtered, and validated. Analysis includes descriptive statistics for exploratory purposes and a multi-regression analysis. Outcomes from the surveys indicate that coffee farmers, who demonstrate entrepreneurship skills and hire employees, are more eager to adapt to climate change despite the extreme adverse socioeconomic conditions of the region. We show that farmers with entrepreneurial tendencies are more creative in using innovative farm practices such as the planting of shade trees, the use of live fencing, instead of wires, and watershed protection techniques, among others. This result counters the notion that small farmers are at the mercy of climate change and have no possibility of being able to adapt to a changing climate. The study also points to roadblocks that farmers face when coping with climate change. Among those roadblocks are a lack of extension services, access to credit, and reliable internet, all of which reduces access to vital information needed in today’s constantly changing world. Results indicate that, under some circumstances, funding and supporting entrepreneurship programs may provide more benefit than traditional social programs.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, global warming, rural communities, climate change adaptation

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Authors: Karl D. Humm

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The United Nations’ Community-based REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) (CBR+) is a programme that directly finances grassroots climate change mitigation strategies that uplift Indigenous Peoples (IPs) and other marginalised groups. A pilot for it in six countries was developed in response to criticism of the REDD+ programme for excluding IPs from dialogues about climate change mitigation strategies affecting their lands and livelihoods. Despite the pilot’s conclusion in 2017, no complete report has yet been produced on the results of CBR+. To fill this gap, this study investigated the experiences with involving IPs in the CBR+ programmes and local projects across all six pilot countries. A literature review of official UN reports and academic articles identified challenges and successes with IP participation in REDD+ which became the basis for a framework guiding data collection. A mixed methods approach was used to collect and analyse qualitative and quantitative data from CBR+ documents and written interviews with CBR+ National Coordinators in each country for a cross-country comparative analysis. The study found that the most frequent challenges were lack of organisational capacity, illegal forest activities, and historically-based contentious relationships in IP and forest-dependent communities. Successful programmes included IPs and incorporated respect and recognition of IPs as major stakeholders in managing sustainable forests. Findings are summarized and shared with a set of recommendations for improvement of future projects.

Keywords: climate change, forests, indigenous peoples, REDD+

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Authors: Ngabirano Levis

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One of Africa’s major environmental challenges remains air pollution. In 2017, UNICEF estimated over 400,000 children in Africa died as a result of indoor pollution, while 350 million children remain exposed to the risks of indoor pollution due to the use of biomass and burning of wood for cooking. Over time, indeed, the major causes of mortality across Africa are shifting from the unsafe water, poor sanitation, and malnutrition to the ambient and household indoor pollution, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain a key factor in this. In addition, studies by the OECD estimated that the economic cost of premature deaths due to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APMP) and Household Air Pollution across Africa in 2013 was about 215 Billion US Dollars and US 232 Billion US Dollars, respectively. This is not only a huge cost for a continent where over 41% of the Sub-Saharan population lives on less than 1.9 US Dollars a day but also makes the people extremely vulnerable to the negative climate change and environmental degradation effects. Such impacts have led to extended droughts, flooding, health complications, and reduced crop yields hence food insecurity. Climate change, therefore, poses a threat to global targets like poverty reduction, health, and famine. Despite efforts towards mitigation, air contributors like carbon dioxide emissions are on a generally upward trajectory across Africa. In Egypt, for instance, emission levels had increased by over 141% in 2010 from the 1990 baseline. Efforts like the climate change adaptation and mitigation financing have also hit obstacles on the continent. The International Community and developed nations stress that Africa still faces challenges of limited human, institutional and financial systems capable of attracting climate funding from these developed economies. By using the qualitative multi-case study method supplemented by interviews of key actors and comprehensive textual analysis of relevant literature, this paper dissects the key emissions and air pollutant sources, their impact on the well-being of the African people, and puts forward suggestions as well as a remedial mechanism to these challenges. The findings reveal that whereas climate change mitigation plans appear comprehensive and good on paper for many African countries like Uganda; the lingering political interference, limited research guided planning, lack of population engagement, irrational resource allocation, and limited system and personnel capacity has largely impeded the realization of the set targets. Recommendations have been put forward to address the above climate change impacts that threaten the food security, health, and livelihoods of the people on the continent.

Keywords: Africa, air pollution, climate change, mitigation, emissions, effective planning, institutional strengthening

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Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

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The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: climate change, climatic model, dry events, precipitation projections

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

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Authors: Sadia Imran, Zenab Naseem

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Dengue fever is one of the most alarming mosquito-borne viral diseases. Dengue virus has been distributed over the years exponentially throughout the world be it tropical or sub-tropical regions of the world, particularly in the last ten years. Changing topography, climate change in terms of erratic seasonal trends, rainfall, untimely monsoon early or late and longer or shorter incidences of either summer or winter. Globalization, frequent travel throughout the world and viral evolution has lead to more severe forms of Dengue. Global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. In recent years, Pakistan experienced a deadly outbreak of the disease. The reason could be that they have the maximum exposure outdoors. Public organizations have observed that changing climate, especially lower average summer temperature, and increased vegetation have created tropical-like conditions in the city, which are suitable for Dengue virus growth. We will conduct a time-series analysis to study the interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in Pakistan, Lahore being the main focus of our study. We have used annual data from 2005 to 2015. We have investigated the relationship between climatic variables and dengue incidence. We used time series analysis to describe temporal trends. The result shows rising trends of Dengue over the past 10 years along with the rise in temperature & rainfall in Lahore. Hence this seconds the popular statement that the world is suffering due to Climate change and Global warming at different levels. Disease outbreak is one of the most alarming indications of mankind heading towards destruction and we need to think of mitigating measures to control epidemic from spreading and enveloping the cities, countries and regions.

Keywords: Dengue, epidemic, globalization, climate change

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Authors: Bright E. Owusu, Nittaya McNeil

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Rainfall is one of the most essential quantities in meteorology and hydrology. It has important impacts on people’s daily life and excess or inadequate of it could bring tremendous losses in economy and cause fatalities. Population increase around the globe tends to have a corresponding increase in settlement and industrialization. Some countries are affected by flood and drought occasionally due to climate change, which disrupt most of the daily activities. Knowledge of trends in spatial and temporal rainfall variability and their physical explanations would be beneficial in climate change assessment and to determine erosivity. This study describes the spatial-temporal variability of daily rainfall in Australia and their corresponding long-term trend during 1950-2013. The spatial patterns were investigated by using exploratory factor analysis and the long term trend in rainfall time series were determined by linear regression, Mann-Kendall rank statistics and the Sen’s slope test. The exploratory factor analysis explained most of the variations in the data and grouped Australia into eight distinct rainfall regions with different rainfall patterns. Significant increasing trends in annual rainfall were observed in the northern regions of Australia. However, the northeastern part was the wettest of all the eight rainfall regions.

Keywords: climate change, explanatory factor analysis, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test, rainfall.

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