Search results for: climate change vulnerability

Authors: Rodrigo Buaiz Boabaid

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Tokenization of Blue Bonds is an emerging Green Finance tool that has the potential to scale Blue Carbon Projects to fight climate change. This innovative solution has a huge potential to democratize the green finance market and catalyze innovations in the climate change finance sector. Switzerland has emerged as a leader in the Green Finance space and is well-positioned to drive the adoption of Tokenization of Blue & Green Bonds. This unique approach has the potential to unlock new sources of capital and enable global investors to participate in the financing of sustainable blue carbon projects. By leveraging the power of blockchain technology, Tokenization of Blue Bonds can provide greater transparency, efficiency, and security in the investment process, while also reducing transaction costs. Investments are in line with the highest regulations and designed according to the stringent legal framework and compliance standards set by Switzerland. The potential benefits of Tokenization of Blue Bonds are significant and could transform the way that sustainable projects are financed. By unlocking new sources of capital, this approach has the potential to accelerate the deployment of Blue Carbon projects and create new opportunities for investors to participate in the fight against climate change.

Keywords: blue carbon, blue bonds, green finance, Tokenization, blockchain solutions

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Authors: Zahra Bakhtiari

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Middle East countries confront a multitude of main environmental challenges which are inevitable. The unstable economic and political structure which dominates numerous middle East countries makes it difficult to react effectively to unfavorable climate change impacts. This study applies a qualitative methodology and relies on secondary literature aimed to investigate how countries in the Middle East are balancing economic security and climatic security in terms of budgeting, infrastructure investment, political engagement (domestically through discourses or internationally in terms of participation in international organizations or bargaining, etc.) There has been provided an outline of innovative measures in both economic and environmental fields that are in progress in the Middle East countries and what capacity they have for economic development and environmental adaptation, as well as what has already been performed. The primary outcome is that countries that rely more on infrastructure investment such as negative emissions technologies (NET) through green social capital enterprises and political engagement, especially nationally determined contributions (NDCs) commitments and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), experience more economic and climatological security balance in the Middle East. Since implementing these measures is not the same in all countries in the region, we see different levels of balance between climate security and economic security. The overall suggestion is that the collaboration of both the bottom-up and top-down approaches helps create strategic environmental strategies which are in line with the economic circumstances of each country and creates the desired balance.

Keywords: climate change, economic growth, sustainability, the Middle East, green economy, renewable energy

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Authors: Omar Romero-Hernandez, Federico Castillo, Armando Sanchez, Sergio Romero, Andrea Romero, Michael Mitchell

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Environmental policies for resource conservation in rural areas include subsidies on services and social programs to cover living expenses. Government's expectation is that rural communities who benefit from social programs, such as payment for ecosystem services, are provided with an incentive to conserve natural resources and preserve natural sinks for greenhouse gases. At the same time, global climate change has affected the lives of people worldwide. The capability to adapt to global warming depends on the available resources and the standard of living, putting rural communities at a disadvantage. This paper explores whether rural entrepreneurship can represent a solution to resource conservation and global warming adaptation in rural communities. The research focuses on a sample of two coffee communities in Oaxaca, Mexico. Researchers used geospatial information contained in aerial photographs of the geographical areas of interest. Households were identified in the photos via the roofs of households and georeferenced via coordinates. From the household population, a random selection of roofs was performed and received a visit. A total of 112 surveys were completed, including questions of socio-demographics, perception to climate change and adaptation activities. The population includes two groups of study: entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs. Data was sorted, filtered, and validated. Analysis includes descriptive statistics for exploratory purposes and a multi-regression analysis. Outcomes from the surveys indicate that coffee farmers, who demonstrate entrepreneurship skills and hire employees, are more eager to adapt to climate change despite the extreme adverse socioeconomic conditions of the region. We show that farmers with entrepreneurial tendencies are more creative in using innovative farm practices such as the planting of shade trees, the use of live fencing, instead of wires, and watershed protection techniques, among others. This result counters the notion that small farmers are at the mercy of climate change and have no possibility of being able to adapt to a changing climate. The study also points to roadblocks that farmers face when coping with climate change. Among those roadblocks are a lack of extension services, access to credit, and reliable internet, all of which reduces access to vital information needed in today’s constantly changing world. Results indicate that, under some circumstances, funding and supporting entrepreneurship programs may provide more benefit than traditional social programs.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, global warming, rural communities, climate change adaptation

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Authors: Nadir A. Carreon, Christa Sonderer, Aakarsh Rao, Roman Lysecky

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With the advent of complex software and increased connectivity, the security of life-critical medical devices is becoming an increasing concern, particularly with their direct impact on human safety. Security is essential, but it is impossible to develop completely secure and impenetrable systems at design time. Therefore, it is important to assess the potential impact on the security and safety of exploiting a vulnerability in such critical medical systems. The common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS) calculates the severity of exploitable vulnerabilities. However, for medical devices it does not consider the unique challenges of impacts to human health and privacy. Thus, the scoring of a medical device on which human life depends (e.g., pacemakers, insulin pumps) can score very low, while a system on which human life does not depend (e.g., hospital archiving systems) might score very high. In this paper, we propose a medical vulnerability scoring system (MVSS) that extends CVSS to address the health and privacy concerns of medical devices. We propose incorporating two new parameters, namely health impact, and sensitivity impact. Sensitivity refers to the type of information that can be stolen from the device, and health represents the impact on the safety of the patient if the vulnerability is exploited (e.g., potential harm, life-threatening). We evaluate fifteen different known vulnerabilities in medical devices and compare MVSS against two state-of-the-art medical device-oriented vulnerability scoring systems and the foundational CVSS.

Keywords: common vulnerability system, medical devices, medical device security, vulnerabilities

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Authors: Karl D. Humm

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The United Nations’ Community-based REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation) (CBR+) is a programme that directly finances grassroots climate change mitigation strategies that uplift Indigenous Peoples (IPs) and other marginalised groups. A pilot for it in six countries was developed in response to criticism of the REDD+ programme for excluding IPs from dialogues about climate change mitigation strategies affecting their lands and livelihoods. Despite the pilot’s conclusion in 2017, no complete report has yet been produced on the results of CBR+. To fill this gap, this study investigated the experiences with involving IPs in the CBR+ programmes and local projects across all six pilot countries. A literature review of official UN reports and academic articles identified challenges and successes with IP participation in REDD+ which became the basis for a framework guiding data collection. A mixed methods approach was used to collect and analyse qualitative and quantitative data from CBR+ documents and written interviews with CBR+ National Coordinators in each country for a cross-country comparative analysis. The study found that the most frequent challenges were lack of organisational capacity, illegal forest activities, and historically-based contentious relationships in IP and forest-dependent communities. Successful programmes included IPs and incorporated respect and recognition of IPs as major stakeholders in managing sustainable forests. Findings are summarized and shared with a set of recommendations for improvement of future projects.

Keywords: climate change, forests, indigenous peoples, REDD+

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Authors: Ngabirano Levis

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One of Africa’s major environmental challenges remains air pollution. In 2017, UNICEF estimated over 400,000 children in Africa died as a result of indoor pollution, while 350 million children remain exposed to the risks of indoor pollution due to the use of biomass and burning of wood for cooking. Over time, indeed, the major causes of mortality across Africa are shifting from the unsafe water, poor sanitation, and malnutrition to the ambient and household indoor pollution, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain a key factor in this. In addition, studies by the OECD estimated that the economic cost of premature deaths due to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APMP) and Household Air Pollution across Africa in 2013 was about 215 Billion US Dollars and US 232 Billion US Dollars, respectively. This is not only a huge cost for a continent where over 41% of the Sub-Saharan population lives on less than 1.9 US Dollars a day but also makes the people extremely vulnerable to the negative climate change and environmental degradation effects. Such impacts have led to extended droughts, flooding, health complications, and reduced crop yields hence food insecurity. Climate change, therefore, poses a threat to global targets like poverty reduction, health, and famine. Despite efforts towards mitigation, air contributors like carbon dioxide emissions are on a generally upward trajectory across Africa. In Egypt, for instance, emission levels had increased by over 141% in 2010 from the 1990 baseline. Efforts like the climate change adaptation and mitigation financing have also hit obstacles on the continent. The International Community and developed nations stress that Africa still faces challenges of limited human, institutional and financial systems capable of attracting climate funding from these developed economies. By using the qualitative multi-case study method supplemented by interviews of key actors and comprehensive textual analysis of relevant literature, this paper dissects the key emissions and air pollutant sources, their impact on the well-being of the African people, and puts forward suggestions as well as a remedial mechanism to these challenges. The findings reveal that whereas climate change mitigation plans appear comprehensive and good on paper for many African countries like Uganda; the lingering political interference, limited research guided planning, lack of population engagement, irrational resource allocation, and limited system and personnel capacity has largely impeded the realization of the set targets. Recommendations have been put forward to address the above climate change impacts that threaten the food security, health, and livelihoods of the people on the continent.

Keywords: Africa, air pollution, climate change, mitigation, emissions, effective planning, institutional strengthening

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Authors: Umesh Kumar Singh, Chanchala Joshi

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With increasing dependency on IT infrastructure, the main objective of a system administrator is to maintain a stable and secure network, with ensuring that the network is robust enough against malicious network users like attackers and intruders. Security risk management provides a way to manage the growing threats to infrastructures or system. This paper proposes a framework for risk level estimation which uses vulnerability database National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) National Vulnerability Database (NVD) and the Common Vulnerability Scoring System (CVSS). The proposed framework measures the frequency of vulnerability exploitation; converges this measured frequency with standard CVSS score and estimates the security risk level which helps in automated and reasonable security management. In this paper equation for the Temporal score calculation with respect to availability of remediation plan is derived and further, frequency of exploitation is calculated with determined temporal score. The frequency of exploitation along with CVSS score is used to calculate the security risk level of the system. The proposed framework uses the CVSS vectors for risk level estimation and measures the security level of specific network environment, which assists system administrator for assessment of security risks and making decision related to mitigation of security risks.

Keywords: CVSS score, risk level, security measurement, vulnerability category

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Francisco Pereira, Elton Rossini

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The use of alternative energy sources to meet energy demand reduces environmental damage. To diversify an energy matrix and to minimize global warming, a solar energy is gaining space, being an important source of renewable energy, and its potential depends on the climatic conditions of the region. Brazil presents a great solar potential for a generation of electric energy, so the knowledge of solar radiation and its characteristics are fundamental for the study of energy use. Due to the above reasons, this article aims to verify the climatic variability corresponding to the variations in solar radiation anomalies, in the face of climate change scenarios. The data used in this research are part of the Intercomparison of Interconnected Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which contributed to the preparation of the fifth IPCC-AR5 report. The solar radiation data were extracted from The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model using the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that represent an intermediate structure and a pessimistic framework, the latter being the most worrisome in all cases. In order to allow the use of solar radiation as a source of energy in a given location and/or region, it is important, first, to determine its availability, thus justifying the importance of the study. The results pointed out, for the 75-year period (2026-2100), based on a pessimistic scenario, indicate a drop in solar radiation of the approximately 12% in the eastern region of Rio Grande do Sul. Factors that influence the pessimistic prospects of this scenario should be better observed by the responsible authorities, since they can affect the possibility to produce electricity from solar radiation.

Keywords: climate change, energy, IPCC, solar radiation

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Authors: Sadia Imran, Zenab Naseem

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Dengue fever is one of the most alarming mosquito-borne viral diseases. Dengue virus has been distributed over the years exponentially throughout the world be it tropical or sub-tropical regions of the world, particularly in the last ten years. Changing topography, climate change in terms of erratic seasonal trends, rainfall, untimely monsoon early or late and longer or shorter incidences of either summer or winter. Globalization, frequent travel throughout the world and viral evolution has lead to more severe forms of Dengue. Global incidence of dengue infections per year have ranged between 50 million and 200 million; however, recent estimates using cartographic approaches suggest this number is closer to almost 400 million. In recent years, Pakistan experienced a deadly outbreak of the disease. The reason could be that they have the maximum exposure outdoors. Public organizations have observed that changing climate, especially lower average summer temperature, and increased vegetation have created tropical-like conditions in the city, which are suitable for Dengue virus growth. We will conduct a time-series analysis to study the interrelationship between dengue incidence and diurnal ranges of temperature and humidity in Pakistan, Lahore being the main focus of our study. We have used annual data from 2005 to 2015. We have investigated the relationship between climatic variables and dengue incidence. We used time series analysis to describe temporal trends. The result shows rising trends of Dengue over the past 10 years along with the rise in temperature & rainfall in Lahore. Hence this seconds the popular statement that the world is suffering due to Climate change and Global warming at different levels. Disease outbreak is one of the most alarming indications of mankind heading towards destruction and we need to think of mitigating measures to control epidemic from spreading and enveloping the cities, countries and regions.

Keywords: Dengue, epidemic, globalization, climate change

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Authors: Bright E. Owusu, Nittaya McNeil

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Rainfall is one of the most essential quantities in meteorology and hydrology. It has important impacts on people’s daily life and excess or inadequate of it could bring tremendous losses in economy and cause fatalities. Population increase around the globe tends to have a corresponding increase in settlement and industrialization. Some countries are affected by flood and drought occasionally due to climate change, which disrupt most of the daily activities. Knowledge of trends in spatial and temporal rainfall variability and their physical explanations would be beneficial in climate change assessment and to determine erosivity. This study describes the spatial-temporal variability of daily rainfall in Australia and their corresponding long-term trend during 1950-2013. The spatial patterns were investigated by using exploratory factor analysis and the long term trend in rainfall time series were determined by linear regression, Mann-Kendall rank statistics and the Sen’s slope test. The exploratory factor analysis explained most of the variations in the data and grouped Australia into eight distinct rainfall regions with different rainfall patterns. Significant increasing trends in annual rainfall were observed in the northern regions of Australia. However, the northeastern part was the wettest of all the eight rainfall regions.

Keywords: climate change, explanatory factor analysis, Mann-Kendall and Sen’s slope test, rainfall.

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Authors: José Leandro Melgar Néris, Claudinéia Brazil, Luciane Teresa Salvi, Isabel Cristina Damin

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The impact the climate change is not recent, the main variable in the hydrological cycle is the sequence and shortage of a drought, which has a significant impact on the socioeconomic, agricultural and environmental spheres. This study aims to characterize and quantify, based on precipitation climatic projections, the rainy and dry events in the region of the Uruguay River Basin, through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The database is the image that is part of the Intercomparison of Model Models, Phase 5 (CMIP5), which provides condition prediction models, organized according to the Representative Routes of Concentration (CPR). Compared to the normal set of climates in the Uruguay River Watershed through precipitation projections, seasonal precipitation increases for all proposed scenarios, with a low climate trend. From the data of this research, the idea is that this article can be used to support research and the responsible bodies can use it as a subsidy for mitigation measures in other hydrographic basins.

Keywords: climate change, climatic model, dry events, precipitation projections

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Authors: Justina Jor, Mahmud Pinga

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Climate change has become a significant worldwide environmental challenge with extensive implications, compelling both governments and non-governmental organizations to remain vigilant, as it seemingly impacts various sectors of the global economy, including education. The study investigates the implementation of smart climate change measures for effective primary school management in Benue State, Nigeria. Theorized by the diffusion of innovations, the study was guided by two research questions, and two null hypotheses were formulated and tested. The study used a descriptive survey design. The population comprised 12,364 teachers from 2,721 primary schools, with a sample of 618 teachers from 136 schools selected through a multistage sampling procedure. Smart climate change measures questionnaire (SCCMQ) and key informant interview (KII) were used for data collection. The data collected were analyzed using mean and standard deviation to answer the research questions, while the Chi-square (χ2) test of goodness-of-fit was used to test the hypotheses at a 0.05 level of significance, with qualitative data analyzed using simple percentages, tables, and bar charts. The findings highlight the significant positive impact of green building practices on the efficient administration of primary schools in Benue State, Nigeria. The crucial integration of environmentally sustainable construction methods is emphasized for enhancing overall management in these educational institutions. In addition, the research demonstrates a favorable impact on the adoption of renewable energy solutions and effective school management. The utilization of renewable energy not only aligns with eco-friendly practices but also contributes to the overall operational efficiency and sustainability of primary schools in the region. The study recommends that educational authorities and policymakers prioritize integrating green building practices and renewable energy solutions, pointing towards the prospect of improved governance and functionality for primary education facilities not only in Benue but throughout Nigeria.

Keywords: smart, climate change, effective management, green building, renewable energy

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Authors: Henry Kuppen

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In the last decade, tree managers have faced many threats of pests and diseases and the effects of climate change. Managers will recognize that they have to put more energy and more money into tree management. By recognizing the cause behind this, the opportunity will arise to build sustainable tree populations for the future. More and more, unwanted larvae are sprayed, ash dieback infected trees are pruned or felled, and emerald ash borer is knocking at the door of West Europe. A lot of specific knowledge is needed to produce management plans and best practices. If pest and disease have a large impact, society loses complete tree species and need to start all over again building urban forest. But looking at the cause behind it, landscape design, and tree species selection, the sustainable solution does not present itself in managing these threats. Every pest or disease needs two important basic ingredients to be successful: climate and food. The changing climate is helping several invasive pathogens to survive. Food is often designed by the landscapers and managers of the urban forest. Monocultures promote the success of pathogens. By looking more closely at the basics, tree managers will realise very soon that the solution will not be the management of pathogens. The long-term solution for sustainable tree populations is a different design of our urban landscape. The use of tree species diversity can help to reduce the impact of climate change and pathogens. Therefore landscapers need to be supported. They are the specialists in designing the landscape using design values like canopy volume, ecosystem services, and seasonal experience. It’s up to the species specialist to show what the opportunities are for different species that meet the desired interpretation of the landscape. Based on landscapers' criteria, selections can be made, including tree species related requirements. Through this collaboration and formation of integral teams, sustainable plant design will be possible.

Keywords: climate change, landscape design, resilient landscape, tree species selection

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Authors: Gustavo Cruz-Bello

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Progreso is a coastal community in Yucatan, Mexico, highly exposed to floods produced by severe storms and tropical cyclones. A participatory cartography approach was conducted to help to reduce floods disasters and assess social vulnerability within the community. The first step was to engage local authorities in risk management to facilitate the process. Two workshop were conducted, in the first, a poster size printed high spatial resolution satellite image of the town was used to gather information from the participants: eight women and seven men, among them construction workers, students, government employees and fishermen, their ages ranged between 23 and 58 years old. For the first task, participants were asked to locate emblematic places and place them in the image to familiarize with it. Then, they were asked to locate areas that get flooded, the buildings that they use as refuges, and to list actions that they usually take to reduce vulnerability, as well as to collectively come up with others that might reduce disasters. The spatial information generated at the workshops was digitized and integrated into a GIS environment. A printed version of the map was reviewed by local risk management experts, who validated feasibility of proposed actions. For the second workshop, we retrieved the information back to the community for feedback. Additionally a survey was applied in one household per block in the community to obtain socioeconomic, prevention and adaptation data. The information generated from the workshops was contrasted, through T and Chi Squared tests, with the survey data in order to probe the hypothesis that poorer or less educated people, are less prepared to face floods (more vulnerable) and live near or among higher presence of floods. Results showed that a great majority of people in the community are aware of the hazard and are prepared to face it. However, there was not a consistent relationship between regularly flooded areas with people’s average years of education, house services, or house modifications against heavy rains to be prepared to hazards. We could say that the participatory cartography intervention made participants aware of their vulnerability and made them collectively reflect about actions that can reduce disasters produced by floods. They also considered that the final map could be used as a communication and negotiation instrument with NGO and government authorities. It was not found that poorer and less educated people are located in areas with higher presence of floods.

Keywords: climate change, floods, Mexico, participatory mapping, social vulnerability

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Authors: Thomas Ruppert, Shana Jones, J. Scott Pippin

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State and federal government agencies within the United States have recently invested substantial resources into studies of future flood risk conditions associated with climate change and sea-level rise. A review of numerous case studies has uncovered several key themes that speak to an overall incoherence within current flood risk assessment procedures in the U.S. context. First, there are substantial local differences in the quality of available information about basic infrastructure, particularly with regard to local stormwater features and essential facilities that are fundamental components of effective flood hazard planning and mitigation. Second, there can be substantial mismatch between regulatory Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) as produced by the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) and other 'current condition' flood assessment approaches. This is of particular concern in areas where FIRMs already seem to underestimate extant flood risk, which can only be expected to become a greater concern if future FIRMs do not appropriately account for changing climate conditions. Moreover, while there are incentives within the NFIP’s Community Rating System (CRS) to develop enhanced assessments that include future flood risk projections from climate change, the incentive structures seem to have counterintuitive implications that would tend to promote moral hazard. In particular, a technical finding of higher future risk seems to make it easier for a community to qualify for flood insurance savings, with much of these prospective savings applied to individual properties that have the most physical risk of flooding. However, there is at least some case study evidence to indicate that recognition of these issues is prompting broader discussion about the need to move beyond FIRMs as a standalone local flood planning standard. The paper concludes with approaches for developing climate adaptation and flood resilience strategies in the U.S. that move away from the social welfare model being applied through NFIP and toward more of an informed risk approach that transfers much of the investment responsibility over to individual private property owners.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, flood risk, moral hazard, sea-level rise

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Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

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Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

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Authors: Mahesh K. Jat, Ankan Jana, Mahender Choudhary

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Rapid population and economic growth resulted in changes in large-scale land use land cover (LULC) changes. Changes in the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface and its impact on climate are of primary concern nowadays. Different approaches, ranging from location-based relationships or modelling earth surface - atmospheric interaction through modelling techniques like surface energy balance (SEB) are used in the recent past to examine the relationship between changes in Earth surface land cover and climatic characteristics like temperature and precipitation. A remote sensing-based model i.e., Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), has been used to estimate the surface heat fluxes over Mahi Bajaj Sagar catchment (India) from 2001 to 2020. Landsat ETM and OLI satellite data are used to model the SEB of the area. Changes in observed precipitation and temperature, obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been correlated with changes in surface heat fluxes to understand the relative contributions of LULC change in changing these climatic variables. Results indicate a noticeable impact of LULC changes on climatic variables, which are aligned with respective changes in SEB components. Results suggest that precipitation increases at a rate of 20 mm/year. The maximum and minimum temperature decreases and increases at 0.007 ℃ /year and 0.02 ℃ /year, respectively. The average temperature increases at 0.009 ℃ /year. Changes in latent heat flux and sensible heat flux positively correlate with precipitation and temperature, respectively. Variation in surface heat fluxes influences the climate parameters and is an adequate reason for climate change. So, SEB modelling is helpful to understand the LULC change and its impact on climate.

Keywords: LULC, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, SEBAL, landsat, precipitation, temperature

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Authors: Monika Foltyn-Zarychta

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Climate change mitigation investment activities are inevitably extended in time extremely. The project cycle does not last for decades – sometimes it stretches out for hundreds of years and the project outcomes impact several generations. The longevity of those activities raises multiple problems in the appraisal procedure. One of the pivotal issues is the choice of the discount rate, which affect tremendously the net present value criterion. The paper aims at estimating the value of social discount rate for intergenerational investment projects in Poland based on individual intertemporal preferences. The analysis is based on questionnaire surveying Polish citizens and designed as contingent valuation method. The analysis aimed at answering two questions: 1) whether the value of the individual discount rate decline with increased time of delay, and 2) whether the value of the individual discount rate changes with increased spatial distance toward the gainers of the project. The valuation questions were designed to identify respondent’s indifference point between lives saved today and in the future due to hypothetical project mitigating climate changes. Several project effects’ delays (of 10, 30, 90 and 150 years) were used to test the decline in value with time. The variability in regard to distance was tested by asking respondents to estimate their indifference point separately for gainers in Poland and in Latvia. The results show that as the time delay increases, the average discount rate value decreases from 15,32% for 10-year delay to 2,75% for 150-year delay. Similar values were estimated for Latvian beneficiaries. There should be also noticed that the average volatility measured by standard deviation also decreased with time delay. However, the results did not show any statistically significant difference in discount rate values for Polish and Latvian gainers. The results showing the decline of the discount rate with time prove the possible economic efficiency of the intergenerational effect of climate change mitigation projects and may induce the assumption of the altruistic behavior of present generation toward future people. Furthermore, it can be backed up by the same discount rate level declared by Polish for distant in space Latvian gainers. The climate change activities usually need significant outlays and the payback period is extremely long. The more precise the variables in the appraisal are, the more trustworthy and rational the investment decision is. The discount rate estimations for Poland add to the vivid discussion concerning the issue of climate change and intergenerational justice.

Keywords: climate change, social discount rate, investment appraisal, intergenerational justice

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Authors: Tai-Yi Yu, Tai-Kue Yu

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Using global climate change as its main theme, this study establishes a model for understanding the environmental behavior of college students. It examines their beliefs about the environment, sustainability, and social impact. Theories about values, beliefs, norms, and planned behaviors helped establish the path relations among various latent variables, which include the students’ values regarding sustainability, environmental concern, social impact, perceived risk, environmental attitude, and behavioral intention. Personality traits were used as moderator variables in order to analyze their role in influencing environmental behaviors. The components-based partial least square (PLS) method was adopted, and the measurements and structural models were analyzed using the SmartPLS software. The proposed model complies with various test standards, including individual item reliability, composite reliability, average variance extracted, goodness-of-fit, and cross-validated redundancy. When college students are taught the concept of environmental sustainability, sustainability becomes an environmental attitude for them, and they are more likely to uphold an ethic of sustainability. The more an individual perceives the risks of global climate change, the stronger her emotional connection to the issue becomes. This positively affects the environmental attitude of college student, pushes them to participate more proactively in improvement activities, and encourages them to display their behavioral intention to improve global climate change. When considering the interaction effect among four latent variables (values regarding sustainability, social impact, environmental concern, and perceived risk), this study found that personality traits have a moderate effect on environmental attitude.

Keywords: partial least square, personality traits, social impact, environmental concern, perceived risk

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Authors: Humphrey Agevi, Harrison Tsingalia, Richard Onwonga, Shem Kuyah

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Most of the world ecosystems have been affected by the effects of climate change. Efforts have been made to mitigate against climate change effects. While most studies have been done in forest ecosystems and pure plant plantations, trees on farms including agroforestry have only received attention recently. Agroforestry systems and tree cover on agricultural lands make an important contribution to climate change mitigation but are not systematically accounted for in the global carbon budgets. This study sought to: (i) determine tree diversity in different agroforestry practices; (ii) determine tree biomass in different agroforestry practices. Study area was determined according to the Land degradation surveillance framework (LSDF). Two study sites were established. At each of the site, a 5km x 10km block was established on a map using Google maps and satellite images. Way points were then uploaded in a GPS helped locate the blocks on the ground. In each of the blocks, Nine (8) sentinel clusters measuring 1km x 1km were randomized. Randomization was done in a common spreadsheet program and later be downloaded to a Global Positioning System (GPS) so that during surveys the researchers were able to navigate to the sampling points. In each of the sentinel cluster, two farm boundaries were randomly identified for convenience and to avoid bias. This led to 16 farms in Kakamega South and 16 farms in Kakamega North totalling to 32 farms in Kakamega Site. Species diversity was determined using Shannon wiener index. Tree biomass was determined using allometric equation. Two agroforestry practices were found; homegarden and hedgerow. Species diversity ranged from 0.25-2.7 with a mean of 1.8 ± 0.10. Species diversity in homegarden ranged from 1-2.7 with a mean of 1.98± 0.14. Hedgerow species diversity ranged from 0.25-2.52 with a mean of 1.74± 0.11. Total Aboveground Biomass (AGB) determined was 13.96±0.37 Mgha-1. Homegarden with the highest abundance of trees had higher above ground biomass (AGB) compared to hedgerow agroforestry. This study is timely as carbon budgets in the agroforestry can be incorporated in the global carbon budgets and improve the accuracy of national reporting of greenhouse gases.

Keywords: agroforestry, allometric equations, biomass, climate change

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Authors: Edilene Machado, Carolina Karoly, Amanda Britz, Luciane Salvi, Claudineia Brazil

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Climate teleconnections refer to the climatic relationships between geographically distant regions, where changes in one location can influence weather patterns in another. These connections can occur through atmospheric and oceanic processes, leading to variations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic elements. Studying teleconnections is crucial for better understanding the mechanisms that govern global climate and the potential consequences of climate change. A notable example of a teleconnection is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which involves the interaction between the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere. During El Niño episodes, there is anomalous warming of the surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific, resulting in significant changes in global climate patterns. These changes can affect rainfall distribution, wind patterns, and temperatures in different parts of the world. The cold phase of ENSO, known as La Niña, is often associated with reduced precipitation and below-average temperatures in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Therefore, the objective of this research is to identify patterns between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in their different phases and dengue transmission. Meteorological data and dengue case records for the city of Porto Alegre, in the southern region of Brazil, were used for the development of this research. The study highlighted that the highest incidence of dengue cases occurred during the cold phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Keywords: climate patterns, climate teleconnections, climate variability, dengue, El Niño-Southern oscillation

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Authors: Celine Delacroix

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Analyses of global emission scenarios demonstrate that slowing population growth could lead to substantial emissions reductions and play an important role to avoid dangerous climate change. For this reason, the advancement of individual reproductive rights might represent a valid climate change mitigation and adaptation option. With this focus, we reflected on population ethics and the ethical dilemmas associated with environmental degradation and climate change. We conducted a mixed-methods qualitative data study consisting of an online survey followed by in-depth interviews with stakeholders of the reproductive health and rights and environmental sustainability movements to capture the ways in which the linkages between family planning, population growth, and environmental sustainability are perceived by these actors. We found that the multi-layered marginalization of this issue resulted in two processes, the polarization of opinions and its eschewal from the public fora through population reductionism. Our results indicate that stakeholders of the reproductive rights and environmental sustainability movements find that population size and family planning influence environmental sustainability and overwhelmingly find that the reproductive health and rights ideological framework should be integrated in a wider sustainability frame reflecting environmental considerations. This position, whilst majoritarily shared by all participants, was more likely to be adopted by stakeholders of the environmental sustainability sector than those from the reproductive health and rights sector. We conclude that these processes, taken in the context of a context of a climate emergency, threaten to weaken the reproductive health and rights movement.

Keywords: environmental sustainability, family planning, population growth, population ethics, reproductive rights

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Authors: Fathul Mubin, Budi E. Nurcahya

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In 2006, a large earthquake ever occurred in the province of Yogyakarta, which caused considerable damage. This is the basis need to investigate the seismic vulnerability index in around of the earthquake zone. This research is called microzonation of earthquake hazard. This research has been conducted at the site and surrounding of Prambanan Temple, includes homes and civil buildings. The reason this research needs to be done because in the event of an earthquake in 2006, there was damage to the temples at Prambanan temple complex and its surroundings. In this research, data collection carried out for 60 minutes using three component seismograph measurements at 165 points with spacing of 1000 meters. The data recorded in time function were analyzed using the spectral ratio method, known as the Horizontal to Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR). Results from this analysis are dominant frequency (Fg) and maximum amplification factor (Ag) are used to obtain seismic vulnerability index. The results of research showed the dominant frequency range from 0.5 to 30 Hz and the amplification is in interval from 0.5 to 9. Interval value for seismic vulnerability index is 0.1 to 50. Based on distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index and impact of buildings damage seemed for suitability. For further research, it needs to survey to the east (klaten) and south (Bantul, DIY) to determine a full distribution maps of seismic vulnerability index.

Keywords: amplification factor, dominant frequency, microzonation analysis, seismic vulnerability index

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Authors: Rajendra Kumar Pandey

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Forest genetic resources not only represent regional biodiversity but also have immense value as the wealth for securing livelihood of poor people. These are vulnerable to ecological due to depletion/deforestation and /or impact of climate change. These resources of various plant categories are vulnerable on the floor of natural tropical forests, and leading to the threat on the growth and development of future forests. More than 170 species, including NTFPs, are in critical condition for their survival in natural tropical forests of Central India. Forest degradation, commensurate with biodiversity loss, is now pervasive, disproportionately affecting the rural poor who directly depend on forests for their subsistence. Looking ahead the interaction between forest and water, soil, precipitation, climate change, etc. and its impact on biodiversity of tropical forests, it is inevitable to develop co-operation policies and programmes to address new emerging realities. Forests ecosystem also known as the 'wealth of poor' providing goods and ecosystem services on a sustainable basis, are now recognized as a stepping stone to move poor people beyond subsistence. Poverty alleviation is the prime objective of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). However, environmental sustainability including other MDGs, is essential to ensure successful elimination of poverty and well being of human society. Loss and degradation of ecosystem are the most serious threats to achieving development goals worldwide. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA, 2005) was an attempt to identify provisioning and regulating cultural and supporting ecosystem services to provide livelihood security of human beings. Climate change may have a substantial impact on ecological structure and function of forests, provisioning, regulations and management of resources which can affect sustainable flow of ecosystem services. To overcome these limitations, policy guidelines with respect to planning and consistent research strategy need to be framed for conservation and sustainable development of forest genetic resources.

Keywords: climate change, forest ecosystem services, sustainable forest management, biodiversity conservation

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Authors: Valentina Dotto

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Climate change cases used to take the form of statutory disputes rather than constitutional or common law disputes. This changed in 2015, with the Urgenda Climate case in the Netherlands (Urgenda Foundation v. The State of the Netherlands, C/09/456689/HAZA 13-1396) and, the Juliana case in the U.S. (United States v. U.S. District Court for District of Oregon, 17-71692, 9th Cir.). The two cases represent a new type of climate litigation, the claims brought against the federal government were in fact grounded in constitutional rights. The complaints used the Doctrine of Public Trust as a cornerstone for the lawsuits asserting that government's actions against climate change failed to protect essential public trust resources; thus, violating a generation's constitutional rights to life, liberty, and property. The Public Trust Doctrine –a quintessentially American legal concept-, reserved to the States by virtue of the 9th and 10th amendment of the federal Constitution, gives them considerable jurisdiction over natural resources and has been refined by a number of Supreme Court rulings. The Juliana case exemplifies the Doctrine’s evolutionary nature because it attempts to apply it to the federal government, and establish a right to a climate system capable of sustaining human life as a fundamental right protected by a substantive due process. Furthermore, the flexibility of the Doctrine makes it permissible to be applied to a variety of different legal systems as in the Urgenda case. At the very heart of the lawsuits stands the question of who owns the Earth resources and, to what extent the general public can claim the services that the Earth provides as common property. By employing the widest possible definition of the Doctrine of Public Trust these lawsuits tried to redefine environmental resources as a collective right of all people. By doing case analysis, the paper explores how these cases can contribute to widening the public access to information and broadening the public voice in decision making as well as providing a precedent to equal access in seeking justice and redress from environmental failures.

Keywords: climate change, doctrine of public trust, environmental democracy, Juliana case, Urgenda climate case

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Authors: Danielle Katrina Santos, Koji Shimada

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Environmentally-friendly agriculture has been promoted for over two decades as a response to the environmental challenges brought by climate change and biological loss. Located above the equator, it is possible that Japan may benefit from future climate change, yet Japan is also a rarely developed country located in the Asian Monsoon climate region, making it vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In this regard, the Japanese government has initiated policies to adapt to the adverse effects of climate change through the promotion and popularization of environmentally-friendly farming practices. This study aims to determine profit efficiency among environmentally-friendly rice farmers in Shiga Prefecture using the Stochastic Frontier Approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted among 66 farmers from top rice-producing cities through a structured questionnaire. Results showed that the gross farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was higher by JPY 316,223.00/ha. Production costs were also found to be higher among environmentally-friendly rice farmers, especially on labor costs, which accounted for 32% of the total rice production cost. The resulting net farm income of environmentally-friendly rice farmers was only higher by JPY 18,044/ha. Results from the stochastic frontier analysis further showed that the profit efficiency of conventional farmers was only 69% as compared to environmentally-friendly rice farmers who had a profit efficiency of 76%. Furthermore, environmentally-friendly agriculture participation, other types of subsidy, educational level, and farm size were significant factors positively influencing profit efficiency. The study concluded that substitution of environmentally-friendly agriculture for conventional rice farming would result in an increased profit efficiency due to the direct payment subsidy and price premium received. The direct government policies that would strengthen the popularization of environmentally-friendly agriculture to increase the production of environmentally-friendly products and reduce pollution load to the Lake Biwa ecosystem.

Keywords: profit efficiency, environmentally-friendly agriculture, rice farmers, direct payment subsidies

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Authors: Hedaya Ali Al Ameri, Alya A. Arabi

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Measuring the level of carbon storage in mangroves’ biomass has a potential impact in the climate change of UAE. Carbon dioxide is one of greenhouse gases. It is considered to be a main reason for global warming. Deforestation is a key source of the increase in carbon dioxide whereas forests such as mangroves assist in removing carbon dioxide from atmosphere by storing them in its biomass and soil. By using Kauffman and Donato methodology, above- and below-ground biomass and carbon stored in UAE’s natural mangroves were quantified. Carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2eq) released to the atmosphere was then estimated in case of mangroves deforestation in the UAE. The results show that the mean total biomass of mangroves in the UAE ranged from 15.75 Mg/ha to 3098.69 Mg/ha. The estimated CO2eq released upon deforestation in the UAE was found to have a minimal effect on the temperature increase and thus global warming.

Keywords: carbon stored in biomass, mangrove deforestation, temperature change, United Arab Emirate

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Authors: F. O. Danquah, F. Frimpong, E. Owusu Danquah, T. Frimpong, J. Adu, S. K. Amposah, P. Amankwaa-Yeboah, N. E. Amengor

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In the face of global concerns such as population increase, climate change, and limited natural resources, sustainable agriculture practices are critical for ensuring food security and environmental stewardship. The study was conducted in the Forest zones of Ghana during the major and minor seasons of 2023 cropping seasons to evaluate maize yield productivity improvement and profitability of integrating Cajanus cajan (pigeonpea) into a maize production system described as a pigeonpea-maize cropping system. This is towards an integrated soil fertility management (ISFM) with a legume shrub pigeonpea for sustainable maize production while improving smallholder farmers' resilience to climate change. A split-plot design with maize-pigeonpea (Pigeonpea-Maize intercrop – MPP and No pigeonpea/ Sole maize – NPP) and inorganic fertilizer rate (250 kg/ha of 15-15-15 N-P2O5-K2O + 250 kg/ha Sulphate of Ammonia (SoA) – Full rate (FR), 125 kg/ha of 15-15-15 N-P2O5-K2O + 125 kg/ha Sulphate of Ammonia (SoA) – Half rate (HR) and no inorganic fertilizer (NF) as control) was used as the main plot and subplot treatments respectively. The results indicated a significant interaction of the pigeonpea-maize cropping system and inorganic fertilizer rate on the growth and yield of the maize with better and similar maize productivity when HR and FR were used with pigeonpea biomass. Thus, the integration of pigeonpea and its biomass would result in the reduction of recommended fertiliser rate to half. This would improve farmers’ income and profitability for sustainable maize production in the face of climate change.

Keywords: agroforestry tree, climate change, integrated soil fertility management, resource use efficiency

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Authors: Juniarti Yuni

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Simawang area is one of the critical areas (sub-optimal) that experienced drought from climate changes. Potential dry land belonging to sub-optimal in Simawang, West Sumatera, Indonesia not been fully utilized for agricultural cultivation. Simawang village, West Sumatera, Indonesia is formerly known as the rice barn, due to the climate change area is experiencing a drought, so the rice fields that were once productive now a grazing paddock because of lack of water. This study aims to calculate the soil carbon stock in Simawang village, West Sumatera Indonesia. The study was conducted in Simawang village, Tanah Datar regency, West Sumatera from October 2014 until December 2017. The study was conducted on sub-optimal land to be planted with Cymbopogon nardus L. (Sereh wangi in Indonesian language). Composite soil sampling conducted at a depth of 0-20 cm, 20–40 cm. Based on the depth of soil carbon stocks gained higher ground 6473 T/Ha at a depth of 0-20 cm at a depth of 20-40 cm. Efforts to increase soil carbon is expected to be cultivated through Cymbopogon nardus L. planting has been done.

Keywords: climate changes, sereh wangi (Cymbopogon nardus L.), soil carbon stock, sub optimal land

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Authors: Chakrit Chotamonsak, Eric P. Salathé Jr, Jiemjai Kreasuwan

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Dynamical downscaling of the ECHAM5 global climate model is applied at 20-km horizontal resolution using the WRF regional climate model (WRF-ECHAM5), to project changes from 1990–2009 to 2045–2064 of temperature and precipitation over the Upper Ping River Basin. The analysis found that monthly changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the basin for the 2045-2064 compared to the 1990-2009 are revealed over the basin all months, with the largest warmer in December and the smallest warmer in February. The future simulated precipitation is smaller than that of the baseline value in May, July and August, while increasing of precipitation is revealed during pre-monsoon (April) and late monsoon (September and October). This means that the rainy season likely becomes longer and less intensified during the rainy season. During the cool-dry season and hot-dry season, precipitation is substantial increasing over the basin. For the annual cycle of changes in daily temperature and precipitation over the upper Ping River basin, the largest warmer in the mean temperature over the basin is 1.93 °C in December and the smallest is 0.77 °C in February. Increase in nighttime temperature (minimum temperature) is larger than that of daytime temperature (maximum temperature) during the dry season, especially in wintertime (November to February), resulted in decreasing the diurnal temperature range. The annual and seasonal changes in daily temperature and precipitation averaged over the basin. The annual mean rising are 1.43, 1.54 and 1.30 °C for mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, respectively. The increasing of maximum temperature is larger than that of minimum temperature in all months during the dry season (November to April).

Keywords: climate change, regional climate model, upper Ping River basin, WRF

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