Search results for: global egalitarianism

Authors: Jhoga Parth, T. Nasar, K. V. Anand

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An idealized definition of shoreline is that it is the zone of coincidence of three spheres such as atmosphere, lithosphere, and hydrosphere. Despite its apparent simplicity, this definition in practice a challenge to apply. In reality, the shoreline location deviates continually through time, because of various dynamic factors such as wave characteristics, currents, coastal orientation and the bathymetry, which makes the shoreline volatile. This necessitates us to monitor the shoreline in a temporal basis. If shoreline’s nature is understood at particular coastal stretch, it need not be the same trend at the other location, though belonging to the same sea front. Shoreline change is hence a local phenomenon and has to be studied with great intensity considering as many factors involved as possible. Erosion and accretion of sediment are such natures of a shoreline, which needs to be quantified by comparing with its predeceasing variations and understood before implementing any coastal projects. In recent years, advent of Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) acts as an emerging tool to quantify the intra and inter annual sediment rate getting accreted or deposited compared to other conventional methods in regards with time was taken and man power. Remote sensing data, on the other hand, paves way to acquire historical sets of data where field data is unavailable with a higher resolution. Short term and long term period shoreline change can be accurately tracked and monitored using a software residing in GIS - Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) developed by United States Geological Survey (USGS). In the present study, using DSAS, End Point Rate (EPR) is calculated analyze the intra-annual changes, and Linear Rate Regression (LRR) is adopted to study inter annual changes of shoreline. The shoreline changes are quantified for the scenario during the construction of breakwater in Ponnani river inlet along Kerala coast, India. Ponnani is a major fishing and landing center located 10°47’12.81”N and 75°54’38.62”E in Malappuram district of Kerala, India. The rate of erosion and accretion is explored using satellite and field data. The full paper contains the rate of change of shoreline, and its analysis would provide us understanding the behavior of the inlet at the study area during the construction of the training walls.

Keywords: DSAS, end point rate, field measurements, geo-informatics, shoreline variation

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Authors: Annamarie Rannou, Horace Bartilow

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Global concerns about xenophobic activity are on the rise across developed and developing countries. And yet, social science scholarship has almost exclusively examined xenophobia as a prejudice of advanced western nations. This research argues that the fields of study related to xenophobia must be re-conceptualized within a framework of ethnicity in order to level the playing field for cross-regional inquiry. This study develops a new concept of ethnic xenophobia and integrates existing explanations of anti-migrant expression into theories of ethnic threat. We argue specifically that political elites convert economic, political, and social threats at the national level into ethnic xenophobic activity in order to gain or maintain political advantage among their native selectorate. We expand on Stuart Kaufman’s theory of symbolic politics to underscore the methods of mobilization used against migrants and the power of elite discourse in moments of national crises. An original dataset is used to examine over 35,000 cases of ethnic xenophobic activity targeting refugees. Wordscores software is used to develop a unique measure of anti-migrant elite rhetoric which captures the symbolic discourse of elites in their mobilization of ethnic xenophobic activism. We use a Structural Equation Model (SEM) to test the causal pathways of the theory across seventy-two developed and developing countries from 1990 to 2016. A framework of Most Different Systems Design (MDSD) is also applied to two pairs of developed-developing country cases, including Kenya and the Netherlands and Lebanon and the United States. This study sheds tremendous light on an underrepresented area of comparative research in migration studies. It shows that the causal elements of anti-migrant activity are far more similar than existing research suggests which has major implications for policy makers, practitioners, and academics in fields of migration protection and advocacy. It speaks directly to the mobilization of myths surrounding refugees, in particular, and the nationalization of narratives of migration that may be neutralized by the development of deeper associational relationships between natives and migrants.

Keywords: refugees, ethnicity, symbolic politics, elites, migration, comparative politics

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Authors: Adedayo Adeleke, Dineo Pule

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The ongoing load-shedding in most parts of South Africa, combined with climate change causing severe drought conditions in Cape Town, has left electricity consumers seeking alternative sources of power and water. Solar energy, which is abundant in most parts of South Africa and is regarded as a clean and renewable source of energy, allows for the generation of electricity via solar photovoltaic systems. Rainwater harvesting is the collection and storage of rainwater from building rooftops, allowing people without access to water to collect it. The lack of dependable energy and water source must be addressed by shifting to solar energy via solar photovoltaic systems and rainwater harvesting. Before this can be done, the potential of building rooftops must be assessed to determine whether solar energy and rainwater harvesting will be able to meet or significantly contribute to Atlantis industrial areas' electricity and water demands. This research project presents methods and approaches for automatically extracting building rooftops in Atlantis industrial areas and evaluating their potential for solar photovoltaics and rainwater harvesting systems using Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data and aerial imagery. The four objectives were to: (1) identify an optimal method of extracting building rooftops from aerial imagery and LiDAR data; (2) identify a suitable solar radiation model that can provide a global solar radiation estimate of the study area; (3) estimate solar photovoltaic potential overbuilding rooftop; and (4) estimate the amount of rainwater that can be harvested from the building rooftop in the study area. Mapflow, a plugin found in Quantum Geographic Information System(GIS) was used to automatically extract building rooftops using aerial imagery. The mean annual rainfall in Cape Town was obtained from a 29-year rainfall period (1991- 2020) and used to calculate the amount of rainwater that can be harvested from building rooftops. The potential for rainwater harvesting and solar photovoltaic systems was assessed, and it can be concluded that there is potential for these systems but only to supplement the existing resource supply and offer relief in times of drought and load-shedding.

Keywords: roof potential, rainwater harvesting, urban plan, roof extraction

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Authors: Adan Valdez, Shawn Gallaher, James Morison, Jordan Aragon

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Global climate change has impacted atmospheric temperatures contributing to rising sea levels, decreasing sea ice, and increased freshening of high latitude oceans. This freshening has contributed to increased stratification inhibiting local mixing and nutrient transport and modifying regional circulations in polar oceans. In recent years, the Western Arctic has seen an increase in freshwater volume at an average rate of 397+-116 km3/year. The majority of the freshwater volume resides in the Beaufort Gyre surface lens driven by anticyclonic wind forcing, sea ice melt, and Arctic river runoff. The total climatological freshwater content is typically defined as water fresher than 34.8. The near-isothermal nature of Arctic seawater and non-linearities in the equation of state for near-freezing waters result in a salinity driven pycnocline as opposed to the temperature driven density structure seen in the lower latitudes. In this study, we investigate the relationship between freshwater content and remotely sensed dynamic ocean topography (DOT). In-situ measurements of freshwater content are useful in providing information on the freshening rate of the Beaufort Gyre; however, their collection is costly and time consuming. NASA’s Advanced Topographic Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) derived dynamic ocean topography (DOT), and Air Expendable CTD (AXCTD) derived Freshwater Content are used to develop a linear regression model. In-situ data for the regression model is collected across the 150° West meridian, which typically defines the centerline of the Beaufort Gyre. Two freshwater content models are determined by integrating the freshwater volume between the surface and an isopycnal corresponding to reference salinities of 28.7 and 34.8. These salinities correspond to those of the winter pycnocline and total climatological freshwater content, respectively. Using each model, we determine the strength of the linear relationship between freshwater content and satellite derived DOT. The result of this modeling study could provide a future predictive capability of freshwater volume changes in the Beaufort-Chukchi Sea using non in-situ methods. Successful employment of the ICESat-2’s DOT approximation of freshwater content could potentially reduce reliance on field deployment platforms to characterize physical ocean properties.

Keywords: ICESat-2, dynamic ocean topography, freshwater content, beaufort gyre

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Authors: Farhan J. M. Al-Behadili, Vineeta Bilgi, Miyuki Taniguchi, Junxi Li, Wei Xu

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Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata) is one of the most destructive pests of fruits and vegetables. Medfly originated from Africa and spread in many countries, and is currently an endemic pest in Western Australia. Medfly has been recorded from over 300 plant species including fruits, vegetables, nuts and its main hosts include blueberries, citrus, stone fruit, pome fruits, peppers, tomatoes, and figs. Global trade of fruits and other farm fresh products are suffering from the damages of this pest, which prompted towards the need to develop more effective ways to control these pests. The available quarantine treatment technologies mainly include chemical treatment (e.g., fumigation) and non-chemical treatments (e.g., cold, heat and irradiation). In recent years, with the loss of several chemicals, it has become even more important to rely on non-chemical postharvest control technologies (i.e., heat, cold and irradiation) to control fruit flies. Cold treatment is one of the most potential trends of focus in postharvest treatment because it is free of chemical residues, mitigates or kills the pest population, increases the strength of the fruits, and prolongs storage time. It can also be applied to fruits after packing and ‘in transit’ during lengthy transport by sea during their exports. However, limited systematic study on cold treatment of Medfly stages in artificial diets was reported, which is critical to provide a scientific basis to compare with previous research in plant products and design an effective cold treatment suitable for exported plant products. The overall purpose of this study was to evaluate and understand Medfly responses to cold treatments. Medfly stages were tested. The long-term goal was to optimize current postharvest treatments and develop more environmentally-friendly, cost-effective, and efficient treatments for controlling Medfly. Cold treatment with different exposure times is studied to evaluate cold eradication treatment of Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata), that reared on carrot diet. Mortality is important aspect was studied in this study. On the other hand, study effects of exposure time on mortality means of medfly stages.

Keywords: cold treatment, fruit fly, Ceratitis capitata, carrot diet, temperature effects

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Authors: Rasaq Adekunle Olabomi

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More than 30% of the global building energy consumption is attributed to heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) due to increasing urbanization and the need for more personal comfort. While heating is predominant in the temperate regions (especially during winter), comfort cooling is constantly needed in tropical regions such as Nigeria. This makes cooling a major contributor to the peak electrical load in the tropics. Meanwhile, the high solar energy availability in the tropical climate region presents a higher application potentials for solar thermal cooling systems; more so, the need for cooling mostly coincides with the solar energy availability. In addition to huge energy consumption, conventional (compressor type) air-conditioning systems mostly use refrigerants that are regarded as environmental unfriendly because of their ozone depletion potentials; this has made the alternative cooling systems to become popular in the present time. The better thermal capacity and less pumping power requirement of chilled water than chilled air has also made chilled water a preferred option over the chilled air cooling system. Radiant floor chilled water cooling is particularly is also considered suitable for spaces such as meeting room, seminar hall, auditorium, airport arrival and departure halls among others. This study did the analysis of the feasibility and energy efficiency of solar thermal chilled water for radiant flood cooling of an office apartment in a tropical climate city in Nigeria with a view to recommend its up-scaling. The analysis considered the weather parameters including available solar irradiance (kWh/m2-day) as well as the technical details of the solar thermal cooling systems to determine the feasibility. Project cost, its energy savings, emission reduction potentials and cost-to-benefits ration are used to analyze its energy efficiency as well as the viability of the cooling system. The techno-economic analysis of the proposed system, carried out using RETScreen software shows that its viability in but SWOT analysis of policy and institutional framework to promote solar energy utilization for the cooling systems shows weakness such as poor infrastructure and inadequate local capacity for technological development as major challenges.

Keywords: cooling load, absorption cooling system, coefficient of performance, radiant floor, cost saving, emission reduction

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Authors: Hanna Schübel, Ivo Wallimann-Helmer

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In order to reach the goal of the Paris Agreement to not overshoot 1.5°C of warming above pre-industrial levels, various countries including the UK and Switzerland have committed themselves to net zero emissions by 2050. The employment of negative emission technologies (NETs) is very likely going to be necessary for meeting these national objectives as well as other internationally agreed climate targets. NETs are methods of removing carbon from the atmosphere and are thus a means for addressing climate change. They range from afforestation to technological measures such as direct air capture and carbon storage (DACCS), where CO2 is captured from the air and stored underground. As all so-called geoengineering technologies, the development and deployment of NETs are often subject to moral hazard arguments. As these technologies could be perceived as an alternative to mitigation efforts, so the argument goes, they are potentially a dangerous distraction from the main target of mitigating emissions. We think that this is a dangerous argument to make as it may hinder the development of NETs which are an essential element of net zero emission targets. In this paper we argue that the moral hazard argument is only problematic if we do not reflect upon which levels of emissions are at stake in order to meet net zero emissions. In response to the moral hazard argument we develop an account of which levels of emissions in given societies should be mitigated and not be the target of NETs and which levels of emissions can legitimately be a target of NETs. For this purpose, we define four different levels of emissions: the current level of individual emissions, the level individuals emit in order to appear in public without shame, the level of a fair share of individual emissions in the global budget, and finally the baseline of net zero emissions. At each level of emissions there are different subjects to be assigned responsibilities if societies and/or individuals are committed to the target of net zero emissions. We argue that all emissions within one’s fair share do not demand individual mitigation efforts. The same holds with regard to individuals and the baseline level of emissions necessary to appear in public in their societies without shame. Individuals are only under duty to reduce their emissions if they exceed this baseline level. This is different for whole societies. Societies demanding more emissions to appear in public without shame than the individual fair share are under duty to foster emission reductions and are not legitimate to reduce by introducing NETs. NETs are legitimate for reducing emissions only below the level of fair shares and for reaching net zero emissions. Since access to NETs to achieve net zero emissions demands technology not affordable to individuals there are also no full individual responsibilities to achieve net zero emissions. This is mainly a responsibility of societies as a whole.

Keywords: climate change, mitigation, moral hazard, negative emission technologies, responsibility

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Authors: Athanasia Chatzifotiou, Karen Tait

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Eco-school is an international initiative that offers schools the opportunity to develop practices on education for sustainable development (EfSD). Such practices need to focus on nine areas, namely: energy, water, biodiversity, school grounds, healthy living, transport, litter, waste and global citizenship. Acquiring the green flag status is the ultimate stage (silver and bronze are the other two) that is awarded by a committee external to the school and it lasts for two years. Our project focused on two such primary schools that had acquired the green flag status. The aim of our project is to describe the schools’ approach of becoming an eco-school, the practitioners’ role in promoting the values and principles of such endeavors, thus identifying the impact of EfSD. We chose the eco-schools initiative as it gives a clear and straightforward way to identify a school with an interest in EfSD. The project is important because even though EfSD attracts high attention in rhetoric, there is evidence indicating that EfSD may be neglected in practice. This paper presents part of a bigger project that aims to compare how primary schools and early years settings have approached EfSD via the eco-school initiative in the North East of England. This is a qualitative project that used a case study design to focus on the practices of two particular primary schools to gain a green flag status. A semi-structured interview was used with the lead teachers/practitioners of the schools; an audit was also conducted as part of a tour of the schools’ premises highlighting the initiatives, curriculum work, projects undertaken as well as resources available to school. A content analysis of the interview transcripts was conducted with the creation of response categories and response narratives by the two researchers first working individually and then collaboratively; the findings of the project reflected issues that concerned: a) pupils’ cognitive, physical and socio-emotional development, b) the wider community and c) the lead practitioners’ role and status in school. In relation to EfSD, our findings indicated that its impact upon these two eco-schools was rather minimal; a mismatch was identified between the eco-school practices and a holistic understanding of issues that EfSD aims to achieve. This mismatch between eco-school practices and EfSD is discussed with regard to: a) pupils’ understanding of the sustainability dimension in the topics they addressed; and b) teachers’ knowledge of sustainability and willingness to keep on such work in schools.

Keywords: eco-schools, environment, primary schools, sustainability education

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Authors: Ieva Bruzauskaite, Jovile Raudoniute, Karina Poliakovaite, Danguole Zabulyte, Daiva Bironaite, Ruta Aldonyte

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Introduction: Air pollution is a growing global problem which has been shown to be responsible for various adverse health outcomes. Immunotoxicity, such as dysregulated inflammation, has been proposed as one of the main mechanisms in air pollution-associated diseases. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is among major morbidity and mortality causes worldwide and is characterized by persistent airflow limitation caused by the small airways disease (obstructive bronchiolitis) and irreversible parenchymal destruction (emphysema). Exact pathways explaining the air pollution induced and mediated disease states are still not clear. However, modern societies understand dangers of polluted air, seek to mitigate such effects and are in need for reliable biomarkers of air pollution. We hypothesise that post-translational modifications of structural proteins, e.g. citrullination, might be a good candidate biomarker. Thus, we have designed this study, where mice were exposed to diesel exhaust and the ongoing protein modifications and inflammation in lungs and other tissues were assessed. Materials And Methods: To assess the effects of diesel exhaust a in vivo study was designed. Mice (n=10) were subjected to everyday 2-hour exposure to diesel exhaust for 14 days. Control mice were treated the same way without diesel exhaust. The effects within lung and other tissues were assessed by immunohistochemistry of formalin-fixed and paraffin-embedded tissues. Levels of inflammation and citrullination related markers were investigated. Levels of parenchymal damage were also measured. Results: In vivo study corroborates our own data from in vitro and reveals diesel exhaust initiated inflammatory shift and modulation of lung peptidyl arginine deiminase 4 (PAD4), citrullination associated enzyme, levels. In addition, high levels of citrulline were observed in exposed lung tissue sections co-localising with increased parenchymal destruction. Conclusions: Subacute exposure to diesel exhaust renders mice lungs inflammatory and modifies certain structural proteins. Such structural changes of proteins may pave a pathways to lost/gain function of affected molecules and also propagate autoimmune processes within the lung and systemically.

Keywords: air pollution, citrullination, in vivo, lungs

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Authors: Pinzón Uribe Luis Felipe, Chávez Porras Álvaro, Ruge Castellanos Liliana Constanza

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According to global data, solid waste management of has low economic investment for its management in underdeveloped countries; being the main factor the advanced technologies acknowledge for proper operation and at the same time the technical development. Has been evidenced that communities have a distorted perception of the role and legalized final destinations for waste or "Landfill" places specific management; influenced primarily by their physical characteristics and the information that the media provide of these, as well as their wrong association with "open dumps". One of the major inconveniences in these landfills is the leachate sludge management from treatment plants; as this exhibit a composition highly contaminating (physical, chemical and biological) for the natural environment due to improper handling and disposal. This is the case Landfill Doña Juana (RSDJ), Bogotá, Colombia, considered among the largest in South America; where management problems have persisted for decades, since its creation being definitive on the concept that society has acquired about this form of waste disposal and improper leachate handling. Within this research process for treating phytoremediation alternatives were determined by using plants that are able to degrade heavy metals contained in these; allowing the resulting sludge to be used as a seal in the final landfill cover; within a restoration process, providing option to solve the landscape contamination problem, as well as in the communities perception and conflicts that generates landfill. For the project chemical assays were performed in sludge leachate that allowed the characterization of metals such as chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), arsenic (As) and mercury (Hg), in order to meet the amount in the biosolids regard to the provisions of the USEPA 40 CFR 503. The evaluations showed concentrations of 102.2 mg / kg of Cr, 0.49 mg / kg Pb, 0.390 mg / kg of As and 0.104 mg / kg of Hg; being lower than of the standards. A literature review on native plant species suitable for an alternative process of phytoremediation, these metals degradation capable was developed. Concluding that among them, Vetiveria zizanioides, Eichhornia crassipes and Limnobium laevigatum, for their hiperacumulativas in their leaves, stems and roots characteristics may allow these toxic elements reduction of in the environment, improving the outlook for disposal.

Keywords: health, filling slurry of leachate, heavy metals, phytoremediation

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Authors: Steven Walker

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This paper assesses recent data on the prevalence of poverty among children and young people diagnosed with mental health problems. The paper will demonstrate that the current hierarchy of risk factors for developing mental health problems needs adjusting to place poverty among the highest risk factors. Globally poverty is calculated to keep rising especially among less developed countries, and the post-Covid 19 economic recession in developed countries is set to rise. The experience of young people enduring Pandemic isolation is already being quantified and is expected to increase referrals for specialist intervention. Searches on several medical/psychological/social databases using keywords: poverty, children, mental illness were undertaken between 2018 and 2021. Worldwide, 700 million people still live in extreme poverty, half of whom are children. Children are physically and mentally disproportionately affected. Children who grow up impoverished lack the basic necessities they need to survive and thrive. 150 million children have been plunged into multidimensional poverty due to COVID-19. The poorest children are twice as likely to die in childhood than their wealthier peers. For those growing up in humanitarian crises such as Ukraine, the risks of deprivation and exclusion are magnified. In the world’s richest countries, one in seven children still live in poverty. Currently, one in four children in the European Union are at risk of falling into poverty. In Europe the impact of Brexit on the UK economy is predicted to reduce GDP by 5% in 2021 with a corresponding rise in poverty. According to the global charity Oxfam wealth inequality impacts levels of child abuse and affects women and girls worse and is a contributory factor in the risk of developing childhood mental illness. In the UK 2000 Foodbanks have opened since 2010, handing out 2 million food parcels annually, where there are currently 4 million children officially living in poverty. This research demonstrates that there is a strong association between families’ socio-economic circumstances and the chances that their children will experience mental illness. Evidence of this association is found repeatedly across developed countries. The paper will conclude by arguing that psychologists, psychiatrists, psychotherapists, social workers and CAMHS specialists need to place more importance on this critical socio-economic variable when assessing referred children and also advocate for political priorities in governments to reduce poverty and lower the risk of childhood mental illness.

Keywords: poverty, resilience, risk factor, socio economic, susceptibility

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Authors: J. Iwaro, A. Mwasha, K. Ramsubhag

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Global warming has become a threat of our time. It poses challenges to the existence of beings on earth, the built environment, natural environment and has made a clear impact on the level of energy and water consumption. As such, increase in the ambient temperature increases indoor and outdoor temperature level of the buildings which brings about the use of more energy and mechanical air conditioning systems. In addition, in view of the increased modernization and economic growth in the developing countries, a significant amount of energy is being used, especially those with hot climatic conditions. Since modernization in developing countries is rising rapidly, more pressure is being placed on the buildings and energy resources to satisfy the indoor comfort requirements. This paper presents a sustainable passive roof solution as a means of reducing energy cooling loads for satisfying human comfort requirements in a hot climate. As such, the study based on the field study data discusses indoor thermal roof design strategies for a hot climate by investigating the impacts of roof thermal performance on indoor thermal comfort in naturally ventilated building envelope small scaled structures. In this respect, the traditional concrete flat roof, corrugated galvanised iron roof and pre-painted standing seam roof were used. The experiment made used of three identical small scale physical models constructed and sited on the roof of a building at the University of the West Indies. The results show that the utilization of insulation in traditional roofing systems will significantly reduce heat transfer between the internal and ambient environment, thus reducing the energy demand of the structure and the relative carbon footprint of a structure per unit area over its lifetime. Also, the application of flat slab concrete roofing system showed the best performance as opposed to the metal roof sheeting alternative systems. In addition, it has been shown experimentally through this study that a sustainable passive roof solution such as insulated flat concrete roof in hot dry climate has a better cooling strength that can provide building occupant with a better thermal comfort, conducive indoor conditions and energy efficiency.

Keywords: building envelope, roof, energy consumption, thermal comfort

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Authors: Prachi Sharma, B. V. Ramkumar

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In current days, autism is a well-known neurodevelopmental disorder that may restrict child development globally. Ignorance or delayed identification or incorrect diagnosis of autism is a major challenge in controlling such an incurable disorder. This may lead to various behavioural complications followed by mental illness in adulthood. Autism is an incurable disorder that is progressive and negatively affects our development globally. This may vary in degree in different skills. However, a deviation from the normal range creates a complex outcome in social and communication areas and restricts or deviates cognitive ability. The primary goal of the present research is to identify and understand the deviations in cognitive, social communication, and behaviour in children during their growing age, with a focus on autism. In this study, five children with mild autism were taken. All the children had achieved normal developmental milestones until the age of one year. The maximum age of observation of children’s development was four years to see the difference in their developmental rates in the areas of cognitive, social communication, and behaviour. The study is based on the parental report about their children from 1 year to 4 years. Videos and pictures of children during their development were also seen as a reference to verify information received by the parents of the children. This research is qualitative, with samples for which were selected using a purposive sampling technique. The data was collected from the OPD, NIEPID RC, NOIDA, India. The data was collected in the form of parental reports based on their observations about their kids. Videos were also seen to verify the information reported by the parents (just shown to verify the facts, not shared). In results, we observed a significant difference in the rate of development in all five children taken for this research. The children having mild autism, at present, showed variations in all three domains (cognitive, social communication, and behaviour). These variations were seen in terms of restricted development in global areas. The result revealed that typical features of ASD had created more cognitive restrictions as compared to the children having ASD features with hyperactivity. Behavioral problems were observed with different levels of severity in the children having ASD with hyperactivity, whereas children with typical ASD are found with some typical problem behaviours like head banging, body rocking, self-biting, etc., with different levels of severity. The social-communication area was observed as equally affected in all children, as no major difference was found in the information received from each parent.

Keywords: autism/ASD, behaviour, cognitive skill, hyperactivity, social-communication skill

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Authors: Matthew J. I. Woolley, Gemma J. M. Read, Paul M. Salmon, Natassia Goode

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The significance of high consequence, workplace failures within construction continues to resonate with a combined average of 12 fatal incidents occurring daily throughout Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Within the Australian construction domain, more than 35 serious, compensable injury incidents are reported daily. These alarming figures, in conjunction with the continued occurrence of fatal and serious, occupational injury incidents globally suggest existing approaches to incident analysis may not be achieving required injury prevention outcomes. One reason may be that, incident analysis methods used in construction have not kept pace with advances in the field of safety science and are not uncovering the full range system-wide contributory factors that are required to achieve optimal levels of construction safety performance. Another reason underpinning this global issue may also be the absence of information surrounding the construction operating and project delivery system. For example, it is not clear who shares the responsibility for construction safety in different contexts. To respond to this issue, to the author’s best knowledge, a first of its kind, control structure model of the construction industry is presented and then used to analyse a fatal construction incident. The model was developed by applying and extending the Systems Theoretic and Incident Model and Process method to hierarchically represent the actors, constraints, feedback mechanisms, and relationships that are involved in managing construction safety performance. The Causal Analysis based on Systems Theory (CAST) method was then used to identify the control and feedback failures involved in the fatal incident. The conclusions from the Coronial investigation into the event are compared with the findings stemming from the CAST analysis. The CAST analysis highlighted additional issues across the construction system that were not identified in the coroner’s recommendations, suggested there is a potential benefit in applying a systems theory approach to incident analysis in construction. The findings demonstrate the utility applying systems theory-based methods to the analysis of construction incidents. Specifically, this study shows the utility of the construction control structure and the potential benefits for project leaders, construction entities, regulators, and construction clients in controlling construction performance.

Keywords: construction project management, construction performance, incident analysis, systems thinking

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Authors: Qingqing Feng, S. Thomas Ng, Frank J. Xu, Jiduo Xing

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Faced with unprecedented challenges including aging assets, lack of maintenance budget, overtaxed and inefficient usage, and outcry for better service quality from the society, today’s infrastructure systems has become the main focus of many metropolises to pursue sustainable urban development and improve resilience. Digital twin, being one of the most innovative enabling technologies nowadays, may open up new ways for tackling various infrastructure asset management (IAM) problems. Digital twin application for IAM, as its name indicated, represents an evolving digital model of intended infrastructure that possesses functions including real-time monitoring; what-if events simulation; and scheduling, maintenance, and management optimization based on technologies like IoT, big data and AI. Up to now, there are already vast quantities of global initiatives of digital twin applications like 'Virtual Singapore' and 'Digital Built Britain'. With digital twin technology permeating the IAM field progressively, it is necessary to consider the maturity of the application and how those institutional or industrial digital twin application processes will evolve in future. In order to deal with the gap of lacking such kind of benchmark, a draft maturity model is developed for digital twin application in the IAM field. Firstly, an overview of current smart cities maturity models is given, based on which the draft Maturity Model of Digital Twin Application for Infrastructure Asset Management (MM-DTIAM) is developed for multi-stakeholders to evaluate and derive informed decision. The process of development follows a systematic approach with four major procedures, namely scoping, designing, populating and testing. Through in-depth literature review, interview and focus group meeting, the key domain areas are populated, defined and iteratively tuned. Finally, the case study of several digital twin projects is conducted for self-verification. The findings of the research reveal that: (i) the developed maturity model outlines five maturing levels leading to an optimised digital twin application from the aspects of strategic intent, data, technology, governance, and stakeholders’ engagement; (ii) based on the case study, levels 1 to 3 are already partially implemented in some initiatives while level 4 is on the way; and (iii) more practices are still needed to refine the draft to be mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive in key domain areas.

Keywords: digital twin, infrastructure asset management, maturity model, smart city

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Authors: Ashish Trivedi, Amol Singh

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In the recent years, the magnitude and frequency of disasters have increased at an alarming rate. Every year, more than 400 natural disasters affect global population. A large-scale disaster leads to destruction or damage to houses, thereby rendering a notable number of residents homeless. Since humanitarian response and recovery process takes considerable time, temporary establishments are arranged in order to provide shelter to affected population. These shelter areas are vital for an effective humanitarian relief; therefore, they must be strategically planned. Choosing the locations of temporary shelter areas for accommodating homeless people is critical to the quality of humanitarian assistance provided after a large-scale emergency. There has been extensive research on the facility location problem both in theory and in application. In order to deliver sufficient relief aid within a relatively short timeframe, humanitarian relief organisations pre-position warehouses at strategic locations. However, such approaches have received limited attention from the perspective of providing shelters to disaster-affected people. In present research work, this aspect of humanitarian logistics is considered. The present work proposes a hybrid decision support model to determine relative preference of potential shelter locations by assessing them based on key subjective criteria. Initially, the factors that are kept in mind while locating potential areas for establishing temporary shelters are identified by reviewing extant literature and through consultation from a panel of disaster management experts. In order to determine relative importance of individual criteria by taking into account subjectivity of judgements, a hybrid approach of fuzzy sets and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was adopted. Further, Technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) was applied on an illustrative data set to evaluate potential locations for establishing temporary shelter areas for homeless people in a disaster scenario. The contribution of this work is to propose a range of possible shelter locations for a humanitarian relief organization, using a robust multi criteria decision support framework.

Keywords: AHP, disaster preparedness, fuzzy set theory, humanitarian logistics, TOPSIS, temporary shelters

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Authors: B. S. Chaudhary

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The severity and frequencies of different disasters on the globe is increasing in recent years. India is also facing the disasters in the form of drought, cyclone, earthquake, landslides, and floods. One of the major causes of disasters in northern India is flood. There are great losses and extensive damage to the agricultural crops, property, human, and animal life. This is causing environmental imbalances at places. The annual global figures for losses due to floods run into over 2 billion dollar. India is a vast country with wide variations in climate and topography. Due to widespread and heavy rainfall during the monsoon months, floods of varying magnitude occur all over the country during June to September. The magnitude depends upon the intensity of rainfall, its duration and also the ground conditions at the time of rainfall. Haryana, one of the agriculturally dominated northern states is also suffering from a number of disasters such as floods, desertification, soil erosion, land degradation etc. Earthquakes are also frequently occurring but of small magnitude so are not causing much concern and damage. Most of the damage in Haryana is due to floods. Floods in Haryana have occurred in 1978, 1988, 1993, 1995, 1998, and 2010 to mention a few. The present paper deals with the Remote Sensing and GIS applications in preparing flood risk maps in parts of Haryana State India. The satellite data of various years have been used for mapping of flood affected areas. The Flooded areas have been interpreted both visually and digitally and two classes-flooded and receded water/ wet areas have been identified for each year. These have been analyzed in GIS environment to prepare the risk maps. This shows the areas of high, moderate and low risk depending on the frequency of flood witness. The floods leave a trail of suffering in the form of unhygienic conditions due to improper sanitation, water logging, filth littered in the area, degradation of materials and unsafe drinking water making the people prone to many type diseases in short and long run. Attempts have also been made to enumerate the causes of floods. The suggestions are given for mitigating the fury of floods and proper management issues related to evacuation and safe places nearby.

Keywords: flood mapping, GIS, Haryana, India, remote sensing, space technology

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Authors: Antonio Piga

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The study of language strategies in financial and corporate discourse has always been vital for understanding how companies manage to communicate effectively with a wider customer base and offers new perspectives on how companies interact with key stakeholders, not only to convey transparency and an image of trustworthiness, but also to create affiliation and attract investment. In the light of Systemic Functional Linguistics, the purpose of this study is to examine and analyse the annual reports of Asian and Western joint-stock companies involved in oil refining and power generation from the point of view of the functions and frequency of grammatical metaphors. More specifically, grammatical metaphor - through the lens of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) - is used as a theoretical tool for analysing a synchronic cross-cultural study of the communicative strategies adopted by Asian and Western companies to communicate social and environmental sustainability and showcase their ethical values, performance and competitiveness to local and global communities and key stakeholders. According to Systemic Functional Linguistics, grammatical metaphor can be divided into two broad areas: ideational and interpersonal. This study focuses on the first type, ideational grammatical metaphor (IGM), which includes de-adjectival and de-verbal nominalisation. The dominant and more effective grammatical tropes used by Asian and Western corporations in their annual reports were examined from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. The aim was to categorise and explain how ideational grammatical metaphor is constructed cross-culturally and presented through structural language patterns involving re-mapping between semantics and lexico-grammatical features. The results show that although there seem to be more differences than similarities in terms of the categorisation of the ideational grammatical metaphors conceptualised in the two case studies analysed, there are more similarities than differences in terms of the occurrence, the congruence of process types and the role and function of IGM. Through the immediacy and essentialism of compacting and condensing information, IGM seems to be an important linguistic strategy adopted in the rhetoric of corporate annual reports, contributing to the ideologies and actions of companies to report and promote efficiency, profit and social and environmental sustainability, thus advocating the engagement and investment of key stakeholders.

Keywords: corporate annual reports, cross-cultural perspective, ideational grammatical metaphor, rhetoric, systemic functional linguistics

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Authors: Madhvi Bhayani

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Introduction: Due to the rapid pace of urbanization, the urban health issues have become one of the significant threats to future development in India. It also poses serious repercussions on the citizen’s health. As urbanization in India is increasing at an unprecedented rate and it has generated the urban health crisis among the city dwellers especially the urban poor. The increasing proportion of the urban poor and vulnerable to the health indicators worse than the rural counterparts, they face social and financial barriers in accessing healthcare services and these conditions make human health at risk. The Local as well as the State and National governments are alike tackling with the challenges of urbanization as it has become very essential for the government to provide the basic necessities and better infrastructure that make life in cities safe and healthy. Thus, the paper argues that if no major realistic steps are taken with immediate effect, the citizens will face a huge burden of health hazards. Aim: This paper attempts to analyze the current infrastructure, government planning, and its future policy, it also discusses the challenges and outcomes of urbanization on health and its impact on it and it will also predict the future trend with regard to disease burden in the urban areas. Methods: The paper analyzes on the basis of the secondary data by taking into consideration the connection between the Rapid Urbanization and Public Health Challenges, health and health care system and its services delivery to the citizens especially to the urban poor. Extensive analyses of government census reports, health information and policy, the government health-related schemes, urban development and based on the past trends, the future status of urban infrastructure and health outcomes are predicted. The social-economic and political dimensions are also taken into consideration from regional, national and global perspectives, which are incorporated in the paper to make realistic predictions for the future. Findings and Conclusion: The findings of the paper show that India suffers a lot due to the double burden of rapidly increasing in diseases and also growing health inequalities and disparities in health outcomes. Existing tools of governance of urban health are falling short to provide the better health care services. They need to strengthen the collaboration and communication among the state, national and local governments and also with the non-governmental partners. Based on the findings the policy implications are then described and areas for future research are defined.

Keywords: health care, urbanization, urban health, service delivery

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Authors: Y. Landkocz, P. Gosset, A. Héliot, C. Corbière, C. Vendeville, V. Keravec, S. Billet, A. Verdin, C. Monteil, D. Préterre, J-P. Morin, F. Sichel, T. Douki, P. J. Martin

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Air Pollution produced by automobile traffic is one of the main sources of pollutants in urban atmosphere and is largely due to exhausts of the diesel engine powered vehicles. The International Agency for Research on Cancer, which is part of the World Health Organization, classified in 2012 diesel engine exhaust as carcinogenic to humans (Group 1), based on sufficient evidence that exposure is associated with an increased risk for lung cancer. Amongst the strategies aimed at limiting exhausts in order to take into consideration the health impact of automobile pollution, filtration of the emissions and use of biofuels are developed, but their toxicological impact is largely unknown. Diesel exhausts are indeed complex mixtures of toxic substances difficult to study from a toxicological point of view, due to both the necessary characterization of the pollutants, sampling difficulties, potential synergy between the compounds and the wide variety of biological effects. Here, we studied the potential indirect genotoxicity of emission of Diesel engines through on-line exposure of rats in inhalation chambers to a subchronic high but realistic dose. Following exposure to standard gasoil +/- rapeseed methyl ester either upstream or downstream of a particle filter or control treatment, rats have been sacrificed and their lungs collected. The following indirect genotoxic parameters have been measured: (i) telomerase activity and telomeres length associated with rTERT and rTERC gene expression by RT-qPCR on frozen lungs, (ii) γH2AX quantification, representing double-strand DNA breaks, by immunohistochemistry on formalin fixed-paraffin embedded (FFPE) lung samples. These preliminary results will be then associated with global cellular response analyzed by pan-genomic microarrays, monitoring of oxidative stress and the quantification of primary DNA lesions in order to identify biological markers associated with a potential pro-carcinogenic response of diesel or biodiesel, with or without filters, in a relevant system of in vivo exposition.

Keywords: diesel exhaust exposed rats, γH2AX, indirect genotoxicity, lung carcinogenicity, telomerase activity, telomeres length

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Authors: Bahman Ghorashi

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The immense awareness of the global climate change has compelled traditional fossil fuel companies to develop strategies to reduce their carbon footprint and simultaneously consider the production of various sources of clean energy in order to mitigate the environmental impact of their operations. Similarly, supply chain issues, the scarcity of certain raw materials, energy costs as well as market needs, and changing consumer expectations have forced the traditional chemical industry to reexamine their time-honored modes of operation. This study examines how such transformative change might occur through the applications of agile principles as well as industry 4.0 technologies. Clearly, such a transformation is complex, costly, and requires a total commitment on the part of the top leadership and the entire management structure. Factors that need to be considered include organizational speed of change, a restructuring that would lend itself toward collaboration and the selling of solutions to customers’ problems, rather than just products, integrating ‘along’ as well as ‘across’ value chains, mastering change and uncertainty as well as a recognition of the importance of concept-to-cash time, i.e., the velocity of introducing new products to market, and the leveraging of people and information. At the same time, parallel to implementing such major shifts in the ethos, and the fabric of the organization, the change leaders should remain mindful of the companies’ DNA while incorporating the necessary DNA defying shifts. Furthermore, such strategic maneuvers should inevitably incorporate the managing of the upstream and downstream operations, harnessing future opportunities, preparing and training the workforce, implementing faster decision making and quick adaptation to change, managing accelerated response times, as well as forming autonomous and cross-functional teams. Moreover, the leaders should establish the balance between high-value solutions versus high-margin products, fully implement digitization of operations and, when appropriate, incorporate the latest relevant technologies, such as: AI, IIoT, ML, and immersive technologies. This study presents a summary of the agile principles and the relevant technologies and draws lessons from some of the best practices that are already implemented within the chemical industry in order to establish a roadmap to agility. Finally, the critical role of educational institutions in preparing the future workforce for Industry 4.0 is addressed.

Keywords: agile principles, immersive technologies, industry 4.0, workforce preparation

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Authors: Tomilola J. Ajayi

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A category of nanovalves system containing the α-cyclodextrin (α-CD) ring on a stalk tethered to the pores of mesoporous silica nanoparticles (MSN) is theoretically and computationally modelled. This functions to control opening and blocking of the MSN pores for efficient targeted drug release system. Modeling of the nanovalves is based on the interaction between α-CD and the stalk (p-anisidine) in relation to pH variation. Conformational analysis was carried out prior to the formation of the inclusion complex, to find the global minimum of both neutral and protonated stalk. B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) basis set was employed to attain all theoretically possible conformers of the stalk. Six conformers were taken into considerations, and the dihedral angle (θ) around the reference atom (N17) of the p-anisidine stalk was scanned from 0° to 360° at 5° intervals. The most stable conformer was obtained at a dihedral angle of 85.3° and was fully optimized at B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) level of theory. The most stable conformer obtained from conformational analysis was used as the starting structure to create the inclusion complexes. 9 complexes were formed by moving the neutral guest into the α-CD cavity along the Z-axis in 1 Å stepwise while keeping the distance between dummy atom and OMe oxygen atom on the stalk restricted. The dummy atom and the carbon atoms on α-CD structure were equally restricted for orientation A (see Scheme 1). The generated structures at each step were optimized with B3LYP/6-311G**(d, p) methods to determine their energy minima. Protonation of the nitrogen atom on the stalk occurs at acidic pH, leading to unsatisfactory host-guest interaction in the nanogate; hence there is dethreading. High required interaction energy and conformational change are theoretically established to drive the release of α-CD at a certain pH. The release was found to occur between pH 5-7 which agreed with reported experimental results. In this study, we applied the theoretical model for the prediction of the experimentally observed pH-responsive nanovalves which enables blocking, and opening of mesoporous silica nanoparticles pores for targeted drug release system. Our results show that two major factors are responsible for the cargo release at acidic pH. The higher interaction energy needed for the complex/nanovalve formation to exist after protonation as well as conformational change upon protonation are driving the release due to slight pH change from 5 to 7.

Keywords: nanovalves, nanogate, mesoporous silica nanoparticles, cargo

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Authors: X. Li, Y. Liu, H. Wong, B. Pardoen, A. Fabbri, F. McGregor, E. Liu

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The target of this paper is to investigate how saturated poroelastic soils subject to freezing temperatures behave and how different boundary conditions can intervene and affect the thermo-hydro-mechanical (THM) responses, based on a particular but classical configuration of a finite homogeneous soil layer studied by Terzaghi. The essential relations on the constitutive behavior of a freezing soil are firstly recalled: ice crystal - liquid water thermodynamic equilibrium, hydromechanical constitutive equations, momentum balance, water mass balance, and the thermal diffusion equation, in general, non-linear case where material parameters are state-dependent. The system of equations is firstly linearized, assuming all material parameters to be constants, particularly the permeability of liquid water, which should depend on the ice content. Two analytical solutions solved by the classic Laplace transform are then developed, accounting for two different sets of boundary conditions. Afterward, the general non-linear equations with state-dependent parameters are solved using a commercial code COMSOL based on finite elements method to obtain numerical results. The validity of this numerical modeling is partially verified using the analytical solution in the limiting case of state-independent parameters. Comparison between the results given by the linearized analytical solutions and the non-linear numerical model reveals that the above-mentioned linear computation will always underestimate the liquid pore pressure and displacement, whatever the hydraulic boundary conditions are. In the nonlinear model, the faster growth of ice crystals, accompanying the subsequent reduction of permeability of freezing soil layer, makes a longer duration for the depressurization of water liquid and slower settlement in the case where the ground surface is swiftly covered by a thin layer of ice, as well as a bigger global liquid pressure and swelling in the case of the impermeable ground surface. Nonetheless, the analytical solutions based on linearized equations give a correct order-of-magnitude estimate, especially at moderate temperature variations, and remain a useful tool for preliminary design checks.

Keywords: chemical potential, cryosuction, Laplace transform, multiphysics coupling, phase transformation, thermodynamic equilibrium

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Authors: Mohd Shazad, K. K. Gupta

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Vector borne diseases are a serious global concern. Aedes aegypti, the primary vector for viruses that cause dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever, chikungunya and yellow fever is widespread over large areas of the tropics and subtropics. In last decade, diseases transmitted by Aedes aegypti are of serious concern. In past decade, number of cases of dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and chikungunya has increased multifold. Present research work focused on impact of ethanol extract of Ocimum sanctum on dengue vector Aedes aegypti. 0-24 hr. old fourth instar larvae of lab-bred population of Aedes aegypti were exposed to ethanol leaf extract of Ocimum with concentrations ranging from 50 ppm to 400 ppm. Survival and development and the treated larvae and reproductive behaviour of the adults emerged from the treated larvae was evaluated. Our results indicated larvicidal potential of the leaf ethanol extract. The influence of the extract was dose dependent. 77.2% mortality was observed in the larvae exposed to 400 ppm for 24 hr. Treatment at lower concentrations revealed delayed toxicity. The larvae survived after treatment showed severe developmental anomalies. Consequently, there was the significant increase in duration of fourth instar larva. The L4 treated with 400-ppm extract moulted after 4.6 days; this was in sharp contrast to control where the larval period of the fourth instar lasts three days. The treated fourth instar larvae in many cases transformed into larva-pupa intermediates with the combination of larva, pupa characters. The larva-pupa intermediates had reduced life span and failed to moult successfully. The adults emerged from the larvae treated with lower doses had reduced reproductive potential. The females exhibited longer preoviposition period, reduced oviposition rate, abnormal oviposition behaviour and decreased fertility. Our studies indicated the possibility of the presence of JH mimic or JH analogue in the leaf ethanol extract of Ocimum. The present research work explored the potentials of Ocimum sanctum, also known as the queen of herbs, in integrated vector management programme of Aedes aegypti, which is a serious threat to human health.

Keywords: Aedes aegypti, development, mortality, Ocimum sanctum reproduction

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Authors: Antonio Piga

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This study explores the correlation between Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL) and Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) as tools for analysing the evolution of rhetoric in the communicative strategies adopted in a company’s Reports on social and environmental responsibility. In more specific terms, transitivity and ergativity- concepts from Systemic Functional Linguistics (SFL) - through the lenses of CDA, are employed as a theoretical means for the analysis of a longitudinal study in the communicative strategies employed by Saras SpA pre- and during the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. Saras is an Italian joint-stock company operating in oil refining and power generation. The qualitative and quantitative linguistic analysis carried out through the use of Sketch Engine software aims to identify and explain how rhetoric - and ideology - is constructed and presented through language use in Saras SpA Sustainability Reports. Specific focus is given to communication strategies to local and global communities and stakeholders in the years immediately before and during the Covid-19 pandemic. The rationale behind the study lies in the fact that 2020 and 2021 have been among the most difficult years since the end of World War II. Lives were abruptly turned upside down by the pandemic, which had grave negative effects on people’s health and on the economy. The result has been a threefold crisis involving health, the economy and social tension, with the refining sector being one of the hardest hit, since the oil refining industry was one of the most affected industries due to the general reduction in mobility and oil consumption brought about by the virus-fighting measures. Emphasis is placed on the construction of rhetorical strategies pre- and during the pandemic crisis using the representational process of transitivity and ergativity (SFL), thus revealing the close relationship between the use language in terms of Social Actors and semantic roles of syntactic transformation on the one hand, and ideological assumptions on the other. The results show that linguistic decisions regarding transitivity and ergativity choices play a crucial role in how effective writing achieves its rhetorical objectives in terms of spreading and maintaining dominant and implicit ideologies and underlying persuasive actions, and that some ideological motivation is perpetuated – if not actually overtly or subtly strengthened - in social-environmental Reports issued in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis.

Keywords: systemic functional linguistics, sustainability, critical discourse analysis, transitivity, ergativity

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Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa, Lathifah Al Hakimi, Aulia Husada

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A large amount of energy is being wasted by the release of natural gas associated with the oil industry. This release interrupts the environment particularly atmosphere layer condition globally which contributes to global warming impact. This research presents an overview of the methods employed by researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia in the Minas area to determine a new prediction method of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission. The method emphasizes advanced research which involved analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, and computer simulations, amongst other techniques. A flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process releases emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the chemical composition of air and environment around the boundary layer mainly during transition season. Transition season in Indonesia is absolutely very difficult condition to predict its pattern caused by the difference of two air mass conditions. This paper research focused on transition season in 2013. A simulation to create the new pattern of the pollutants distribution is needed. This paper has outlines trends in gas flaring modeling and current developments to predict the dominant variables in the pollutants distribution. A Fluent model is used to simulate the distribution of pollutants gas coming out of the stack, whereas WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. Based on the running model, the most influence factor was wind speed. The goal of the simulation is to predict the new pattern based on the time of fastest wind and slowest wind occurs for pollutants distribution. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that the fastest wind (last of March) moves pollutants in a horizontal direction and the slowest wind (middle of May) moves pollutants vertically. Besides, the design of flare stack in compliance according to EPA Oil and Gas Facility Stack Parameters likely shows pollutants concentration remains on the under threshold NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards).

Keywords: flare motion, new prediction, pollutants distribution, transition season, WRF model

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Authors: Yegnanew A. Shiferaw

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Background: commodity price volatility originating from excessive commodity price fluctuation has been a global problem especially after the recent financial crises. Volatility is a measure of risk or uncertainty in financial analysis. It plays a vital role in risk management, portfolio management, and pricing equity. Objectives: the core objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between the prices of agricultural commodities with oil price, gas price, coal price and exchange rate (USD/Rand). In addition, the paper tries to fit an appropriate model that best describes the log return price volatility and estimate Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall. Data and methods: the data used in this study are the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices from 02 January 2007 to 31st October 2016. The data sets consists of the daily returns of agricultural commodity prices namely: white maize, yellow maize, wheat, sunflower, soya, corn, and sorghum. The paper applies the three-state Markov-switching (MS) regression, the standard single-regime GARCH and the two regime Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models. Results: to choose the best fit model, the log-likelihood function, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and deviance information criterion (DIC) are employed under three distributions for innovations. The results indicate that: (i) the price of agricultural commodities was found to be significantly associated with the price of coal, price of natural gas, price of oil and exchange rate, (ii) for all agricultural commodities except sunflower, k=3 had higher log-likelihood values and lower AIC and BIC values. Thus, the three-state MS regression model outperformed the two-state MS regression model (iii) MS-GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (ged) innovation performs best for white maize and yellow maize; MS-GARCH(1,1) with student-t distribution (std) innovation performs better for sorghum; MS-gjrGARCH(1,1) with ged innovation performs better for wheat, sunflower and soya and MS-GARCH(1,1) with std innovation performs better for corn. In conclusion, this paper provided a practical guide for modelling agricultural commodity prices by MS regression and MS-GARCH processes. This paper can be good as a reference when facing modelling agricultural commodity price problems.

Keywords: commodity prices, MS-GARCH model, MS regression model, South Africa, volatility

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Authors: Valery Gulyayev, Sergey Glazunov, Elena Andrusenko, Nataliya Shlyun

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Enhancement of technology and techniques for drilling deep directed oil and gas bore-wells are of essential industrial significance because these wells make it possible to increase their productivity and output. Generally, they are used for drilling in hard and shale formations, that is why their drivage processes are followed by the emergency and failure effects. As is corroborated by practice, the principal drilling drawback occurring in drivage of long curvilinear bore-wells is conditioned by the need to obviate essential force hindrances caused by simultaneous action of the gravity, contact and friction forces. Primarily, these forces depend on the type of the technological regime, drill string stiffness, bore-hole tortuosity and its length. They can lead to the Eulerian buckling of the drill string and its sticking. To predict and exclude these states, special mathematic models and methods of computer simulation should play a dominant role. At the same time, one might note that these mechanical phenomena are very complex and only simplified approaches (‘soft string drag and torque models’) are used for their analysis. Taking into consideration that now the cost of directed wells increases essentially with complication of their geometry and enlargement of their lengths, it can be concluded that the price of mistakes of the drill string behavior simulation through the use of simplified approaches can be very high and so the problem of correct software elaboration is very urgent. This paper deals with the problem of simulating the regimes of drilling deep curvilinear bore-wells with prescribed imperfect geometrical trajectories of their axial lines. On the basis of the theory of curvilinear flexible elastic rods, methods of differential geometry, and numerical analysis methods, the 3D ‘stiff-string drag and torque model’ of the drill string bending and the appropriate software are elaborated for the simulation of the tripping in and out regimes and drilling operations. It is shown by the computer calculations that the contact and friction forces can be calculated and regulated, providing predesigned trouble-free modes of operation. The elaborated mathematic models and software can be used for the emergency situations prognostication and their exclusion at the stages of the drilling process design and realization.

Keywords: curvilinear drilling, drill string tripping in and out, contact forces, resistance forces

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Authors: Natalia Rudeli, Elisabeth Viles, Adrian Santilli

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Delays in the construction industry are a global phenomenon. Many construction projects experience extensive delays exceeding the initially estimated completion time. The main purpose of this study is to identify construction projects typical behaviors in order to develop a prognosis and management tool. Being able to know a construction projects schedule tendency will enable evidence-based decision-making to allow resolutions to be made before delays occur. This study presents an innovative approach that uses Cluster Analysis Method to support predictions during Earned Value Analyses. A clustering analysis was used to predict future scheduling, Earned Value Management (EVM), and Earned Schedule (ES) principal Indexes behaviors in construction projects. The analysis was made using a database with 90 different construction projects. It was validated with additional data extracted from literature and with another 15 contrasting projects. For all projects, planned and executed schedules were collected and the EVM and ES principal indexes were calculated. A complete linkage classification method was used. In this way, the cluster analysis made considers that the distance (or similarity) between two clusters must be measured by its most disparate elements, i.e. that the distance is given by the maximum span among its components. Finally, through the use of EVM and ES Indexes and Tukey and Fisher Pairwise Comparisons, the statistical dissimilarity was verified and four clusters were obtained. It can be said that construction projects show an average delay of 35% of its planned completion time. Furthermore, four typical behaviors were found and for each of the obtained clusters, the interim milestones and the necessary rhythms of construction were identified. In general, detected typical behaviors are: (1) Projects that perform a 5% of work advance in the first two tenths and maintain a constant rhythm until completion (greater than 10% for each remaining tenth), being able to finish on the initially estimated time. (2) Projects that start with an adequate construction rate but suffer minor delays culminating with a total delay of almost 27% of the planned time. (3) Projects which start with a performance below the planned rate and end up with an average delay of 64%, and (4) projects that begin with a poor performance, suffer great delays and end up with an average delay of a 120% of the planned completion time. The obtained clusters compose a tool to identify the behavior of new construction projects by comparing their current work performance to the validated database, thus allowing the correction of initial estimations towards more accurate completion schedules.

Keywords: cluster analysis, construction management, earned value, schedule

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Authors: Torsten Hermanns, Thoufik Al Khawli, Wolfgang Schulz

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In laser cutting as well as in long pulsed laser drilling of metals, it can be demonstrated that the ablation shape (the shape of cut faces respectively the hole shape) that is formed approaches a so-called asymptotic shape such that it changes only slightly or not at all with further irradiation. These findings are already known from the ultrashort pulse (USP) ablation of dielectric and semiconducting materials. The explanation for the occurrence of an asymptotic shape in laser cutting and long pulse drilling of metals is identified, its underlying mechanism numerically implemented, tested and clearly confirmed by comparison with experimental data. In detail, there now is a model that allows the simulation of the temporal (pulse-resolved) evolution of the hole shape in laser drilling as well as the final (asymptotic) shape of the cut faces in laser cutting. This simulation especially requires much less in the way of resources, such that it can even run on common desktop PCs or laptops. Individual parameters can be adjusted using sliders – the simulation result appears in an adjacent window and changes in real time. This is made possible by an application-specific reduction of the underlying ablation model. Because this reduction dramatically decreases the complexity of calculation, it produces a result much more quickly. This means that the simulation can be carried out directly at the laser machine. Time-intensive experiments can be reduced and set-up processes can be completed much faster. The high speed of simulation also opens up a range of entirely different options, such as metamodeling. Suitable for complex applications with many parameters, metamodeling involves generating high-dimensional data sets with the parameters and several evaluation criteria for process and product quality. These sets can then be used to create individual process maps that show the dependency of individual parameter pairs. This advanced simulation makes it possible to find global and local extreme values through mathematical manipulation. Such simultaneous optimization of multiple parameters is scarcely possible by experimental means. This means that new methods in manufacturing such as self-optimization can be executed much faster. However, the software’s potential does not stop there; time-intensive calculations exist in many areas of industry. In laser welding or laser additive manufacturing, for example, the simulation of thermal induced residual stresses still uses up considerable computing capacity or is even not possible. Transferring the principle of reduced models promises substantial savings there, too.

Keywords: asymptotic ablation shape, interactive process simulation, laser drilling, laser cutting, metamodeling, reduced modeling

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