Search results for: adaptive management

Authors: Abdulkadir I.

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Scientists have come to terms with the fact that climate change has been and is expected to cause a significant increase in the severity and frequency of drought events. The northeast region of Nigeria is one of the most, if not the most, affected regions by drought in the country. Therefore, it is on this note that the present study applied ArcGIS and XLSTAT Software and explored drought and its trend in the northeast region of the country using the vegetation health index (VHI), Mann-Kendal, and Sen’s slope between 2001 and 2020. The study also explored the areas that remained under drought and no-drought conditions at intervals of five years for the period under review. The result of Mann-Kendal (-0.07) and Sen’s slope (-0.19) revealed that there was a decreasing trend in VHI over the period under review. The result further showed that the period between 2010 and 2015 had a minimum area of no-drought conditions of about 24%, with Gombe State accounting for the lowest percentage among the six States, about 0.9% of the total area of no-drought conditions. The result further showed the areas that were under drought conditions between 2010 and 2015 represented about 9.1%, with Borno State accounting for the highest percentage among the six States, about 2.5% of the total area under drought conditions. The masked-out areas stood at 66.8%, with Borno State accounting for the highest percentage among the six States, about 20.2% of the total area under drought conditions. Therefore, collective efforts are needed to put in place sustainable land management in the affected areas so as to mitigate the sprawl of desertification in the region.

Keywords: climate change, drought, Mann Kendal, sustainable land management, vegetation health index

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Authors: Danny Hjeij, Karine Bilodeau, Caroline Arbour

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Background: Chemotherapy infusions often lead to a cluster of co-occurring and difficult-to-treat symptoms (nausea, tingling, etc.), which may negatively impact the treatment experience at the outpatient clinic. Although several complementary approaches have shown beneficial effects for chemotherapy-induced symptom management, they are not easily implementable during chemotherapy infusion. In response to this limitation, comfort talk (CT), a simple, fast conversational method inspired by the language principles of clinical hypnosis, is known to optimize the management of symptoms related to antineoplastic treatments. However, the perception of nurses who have had to integrate this practice into their care has never been documented. Study design: A qualitative descriptive study with iterative content analysis was conducted among oncology nurses working in a chemotherapy outpatient clinic who had previous experience with CT. Semi-structured interviews were conducted by phone, using a pre-tested interview guide and a sociodemographic survey to document their perception of CT. The conceptual framework. Results: A total of six nurses (4 women, 2 men) took part in the interviews (N=6). The average age of participants was 49 years (36-61 years). Participants had an average of 24 years of experience (10-38 years) as a nurse, including 14.5 years in oncology (5-32 years). Data saturation (i.e., redundancy of words) was observed around the fifth interview. A sixth interview was conducted as confirmation. Six themes emerged: two addressing contextual and organizational obstacles at the chemotherapy outpatient clinic, and three addressing the added value of CT for oncology nursing care. Specific themes included: 1) the outpatient oncology clinic, a saturated care setting, 2) the keystones that support the integration of CT into care, 3) added value for patients, 4) a positive and rewarding experience for nurses, 5) collateral benefits, and 6) CT an approach to consider during the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion: For the first time, this study describes nurses' perception of the integration of CT into the care surrounding the administration of chemotherapy at the outpatient oncology clinic. In summary, contextual and organizational difficulties, as well as the lack of training, are among the main obstacles that could hinder the integration of CT in oncology. Still, the experience was reported mostly as positive. Indeed, nurses saw HC as an added value to patient care and meeting their need for holistic care. HC also appears to be beneficial for patients on several levels (for pain management in particular). Results will be used to inform future knowledge transfer activities related to CT in oncology nursing.

Keywords: cancer, chemotherapy, comfort talk, oncology nursing role

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Authors: L. Mercier, D. Beladjine, K. Beddiar

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The digital transition of building in France brings many changes which some have been able to face very quickly, while others are struggling to find their place and the interest that BIM can bring in their profession. BIM today is already adopted or initiated by construction professionals. However, this change, which can be drastic for some, prevents them from integrating it definitively. This is the case with architects. The profession is shared on the practice of BIM in its exercise. The risk of not adopting this new working method now and of not wanting to switch to its new digital tools leads us to question the future of the profession in view of the gap that is likely to be created within project management. In order to deal with the subject efficiently, our work was based on a documentary watch on BIM and then on the profession of architect, which allowed us to establish links on these two subjects. The observation of the economic model towards which the agencies tend and the trend of the sought after profiles made it possible to develop the opportunities and the brakes likely to impact the future of the profession of architect. The centralization of research directs work towards the conclusion that the model implemented by companies does not allow to integrate BIM within their structure. A solution hypothesis was then issued, focusing on the development of agencies through the diversity of profiles, skills to be integrated internally with the aim of diversifying their skills, and their business practices. In order to address this hypothesis of a multidisciplinary agency model, we conducted a survey of architectural firms. It is built on the model of Anglo-Saxon countries, which do not have the same functioning in comparison to the French model. The results obtained showed a risk of gradual disappearance on the market from small agencies in favor of those who will have and could take this BIM working method. This is why the architectural profession must, first of all, look at what is happening within its training before absolutely wanting to diversify the profiles to integrate into its structure. This directs the study on the training of architects. The schools of French architects are generally behind schedule if we allow the comparison to the schools of engineers. The latter is currently experiencing a slight improvement with the emergence of masters and BIM options during the university course. If the training of architects develops towards learning BIM and the agencies have the desire to integrate different but complementary profiles, then they will develop their skills internally and therefore open their profession to new functions. The place of BIM Management on projects will allow the architect to remain in control of the project because of their overall vision of the project. In addition, the integration of BIM and more generally of the life cycle analysis of the structure will make it possible to guarantee eco-design or eco-construction by approaching the constraints of sustainable development omnipresent on the planet.

Keywords: building information modelling, BIM, BIM management, BIM manager, BIM architect

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Authors: Ali Mashayekh, Mahdiye Khorasani, Thomas weyh

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The demand for battery electric vehicles (BEV) is steadily increasing, and it can be assumed that electric mobility will dominate the market for individual transportation in the future. Regarding BEVs, the focus of state-of-the-art research and development is on vehicle batteries since their properties primarily determine vehicles' characteristic parameters, such as price, driving range, charging time, and lifetime. State-of-the-art battery packs consist of invariable configurations of battery cells, connected in series and parallel. A promising alternative is battery systems based on multilevel inverters, which can alter the configuration of the battery cells during operation via semiconductor switches. The main benefit of such topologies is that a three-phase AC voltage can be directly generated from the battery pack, and no separate power inverters are required. Therefore, modular battery systems based on different multilevel inverter topologies and reconfigurable battery systems are currently under investigation. Another advantage of the multilevel concept is that the possibility to reconfigure the battery pack allows battery cells with different states of charge (SoC) to be connected in parallel, and thus low-loss balancing can take place between such cells. In contrast, in conventional battery systems, parallel connected (hard-wired) battery cells are discharged via bleeder resistors to keep the individual SoCs of the parallel battery strands balanced, ultimately reducing the vehicle range. Different multilevel inverter topologies and reconfigurable batteries have been described in the available literature that makes the before-mentioned advantages possible. However, what has not yet been described is how an intelligent operating algorithm needs to look like to keep the SoCs of the individual battery strands of a modular battery system with integrated power electronics balanced. Therefore, this paper suggests an SoC balancing approach for Battery Modular Multilevel Management (BM3) converter systems, which can be similarly used for reconfigurable battery systems or other multilevel inverter topologies with parallel connectivity. The here suggested approach attempts to simultaneously utilize all converter modules (bypassing individual modules should be avoided) because the parallel connection of adjacent modules reduces the phase-strand's battery impedance. Furthermore, the presented approach tries to reduce the number of switching events when changing the switching state combination. Thereby, the ohmic battery losses and switching losses are kept as low as possible. Since no power is dissipated in any designated bleeder resistors and no designated active balancing circuitry is required, the suggested approach can be categorized as a proactive balancing approach. To verify the algorithm's validity, simulations are used.

Keywords: battery management system, BEV, battery modular multilevel management (BM3), SoC balancing

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Authors: Yen Chia-Ju, Cheng Ding-Ruei

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This study took case office building as subject and explored the responsive work order repair request of facilities and equipment in offices and public areas by gray theory, with the purpose of providing for future related office building owners, executive managers, property management companies, mechanical and electrical companies as reference for deciding and assessing forecast model. Important conclusions of this study are summarized as follows according to the study findings: 1. Grey Relational Analysis discusses the importance of facilities repair number of six categories, namely, power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, fire systems and manpower dispatch in order. In terms of facilities maintenance importance are power systems, building systems, water systems, air conditioning systems, manpower dispatch and fire systems in order. 2. GM (1,N) and regression method took maintenance hours as dependent variables and repair number, leased area and tenants number as independent variables and conducted single month forecast based on 12 data from January to December 2011. The mean absolute error and average accuracy of GM (1,N) from verification results were 6.41% and 93.59%; the mean absolute error and average accuracy of regression model were 4.66% and 95.34%, indicating that they have highly accurate forecast capability.

Keywords: rey theory, forecast model, Taipei 101, office buildings, property management, facilities, equipment

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Authors: A. Kaeotawee, N. Bunmas, W. Chomthong

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Background: The cancellation of elective surgery is a major indicator of poor operating room efficiency. Furthermore, it is recognized as a major cause of emotional trauma to patients as well as their families. This study was carried out to assess the incidence and causes of elective surgery cancellation in our setting and to find the appropriate solutions for better quality management. Objective: To determine the incidence and causes of elective surgery cancellations in Songklanagarind Hospital. Material and Method: A prospective survey was conducted from September to November 2012. All patients who had their scheduled elective operations cancelled were assessed. Data was collected on the following 2 components: (1) patient demographics;(2) main reasons for cancellations, which were grouped into patient-related factors and organizational-related factors. Data are reported as a percentage of patients whose operations were cancelled. The association between cancellation status and patient demographics was assessed using univariate logistic regression. Results: 2,395 patients were scheduled for elective surgery and of these 343 (14.3%) had their operations cancelled. Cardiothoracic surgery had the highest rate of cancellations (28.7%) while the least number of cancellations occurred in ophthalmology (10.1%). The main reasons for cancellations were related to the unit's organization (53.6%), due to the surgeon (48.4%). Patient related causes (46.4%), due to non medical reasons (32.1%). The most common cause of cancellation by the surgeon was lack of theater time (21.3%), by patients due to the patient’s nonappearance (25.1%). Cancellation was significantly associated with type of patient, health insurance, type of anesthesia and specialties (p<0.05). Conclusion: Surgery cancellations by surgeons relating to a lack of theater time was a significant problem in our setting. Appropriate solutions for better quality improvement are needed.

Keywords: elective cases, surgery cancellation, quality management, appropriate solutions

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Authors: Hashim Chunpir

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Support processes play an important role to facilitate researchers (users) to accomplish their research activities with the help of cyber-infrastructure(s). However, the current user-support process in cyber-infrastructure needs a feasible tool to support users. This tool must enable the users of a cyber-infrastructure to communicate efficiently with the staffs of a cyber-infrastructure in order to get technical and scientific assistance, whilst saving resources at the same time. This research paper narrates the real story of employing various forms of tools to support the user and staff communication. In addition, this paper projects the lessons learned from an exploration of the help-desk tools in the current state of user support process in Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) from support staffs’ perspective. ESGF is a climate cyber-infrastructure that facilitates Earth System Modeling (ESM) and is taken as a case study in this paper. Finally, this study proposes a need for a tool, a framework or a platform that not only improves the user support process to address support servicing needs of end-users of e-Science infrastructures but also eases the life of staffs in providing assistance to the users. With the help of such a tool; the collaboration between users and the staffs of cyber-infrastructures is made easier. Consequently, the research activities of the users of e-Science infrastructure will thrive as the scientific and technical support will be available to users. Finally, this results into painless and productive e-Research.

Keywords: e-Science User Services, e-Research in Earth Sciences, Information Technology Services Management (ITSM), user support process, service desk, management of support activities, help desk tools, application of social media

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Authors: Mohammad Mehdi Mohebi, Nima Kazempour, Mohammad Naeim Kazempour

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Strategic thinking enables managers to find out what factors are effective in achieving the desired goals and how these factors create value for the customer. Strategic thinking can be interpreted as a form of mental and inner strength in the manager, who by utilizing it, while considering the conditions of the environment and unstable global environment changes, takes decisions, and plans actions, and designs the strategy of his organization in today's changing and unsustainable business environment. Strategic thinking is very important in today’s business world, because without this thinking, the organization's efforts to achieve developed strategies will not be effective. In this study, through a detailed study of the challenges and barriers to strategic thinking that is carried out by various scholars and experts theoretically and experimentally, 7 major factors were identified. Then, based on these main factors of challenges and related elements, a tool in the form of a questionnaire was developed in order to determine their importance and priority from the perspective of strategic management experts. Using statistical tests the reliability and validity of this instrument, including its structural validity, has been examined and approved using factor analysis. These factors are weighted and prioritized using AHP techniques and the opinions of scholars and experts. Prioritization of barriers to strategic thinking include: lack of participatory management, lack of a systematic approach, difficulty in aligning the organization members, lack of incentive organizational culture, behavioural and internal barriers of managers, lack of key managers and lack of access to timely and accurate information.

Keywords: strategic thinking, challenges and barriers to strategic thinking, EN bank, AHP method

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Authors: Nazneen Zehra

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Gir Protected Area (PA) is home to two sympatric large carnivores, the Asiatic lion and the common leopard, which share the same habitat. Understanding their interactions and coexistence is crucial for effective conservation management. From 2009 to 2012, we studied the availability and consumption of prey by these two carnivores to understand the dynamics of their interactions and coexistence. Ungulates provided approximately 3634.45 kg/km² of prey biomass, primarily composed of chital (ca. 2711.25 kg/km²), sambar (ca. 411.78 kg/km²), and nilgai (ca. 511.52 kg/km²). Other prey included peafowl (75.76 kg/km²) and langur (ca. 158.72 kg/km²). Both carnivores prioritized chital as their key prey species. The diet of Asiatic lions was predominantly composed of ungulates, with biomass contributions of chital (301.14 kg), sambar (378.75 kg), and nilgai (291.42 kg). Other prey species, such as peafowl and langur, contributed 1.36 kg and 2.40 kg, respectively, to the lions' diet. For leopards, the diet also heavily relied on chital (311.49 kg), followed by sambar (44.03 kg) and nilgai (172.78 kg). The biomass of other prey species in the leopards' diet included peafowl (2.08 kg) and langur (36.07 kg). Both species were found to primarily utilize teak-mixed forest, followed by riverine forest and teak-acacia-zizyphus habitats. The similarities in diet composition and habitat use indicate competition between these sympatric species. This competition may require one predator species to bear certain costs for the benefit of the other, which can influence conservation and management strategies. Effective conservation strategies are necessary to ensure the long-term survival of both the Asiatic lion and the common leopard equally and to maintain ecological balance in Gir PA.

Keywords: large carnivores, Gir PA, coexistence, resource utilization

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Authors: Chanchai Wimon, Polin Muangngam, Thannapat Nimsumram, Chanin Prombutra, Prasert Aengchuan, Perawat Boonpuek

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Cleaning water containers is essential for drinking water production to prevent contamination and residual chemicals from washing liquid. Water distribution divisions in Thailand are facing a critical problem with residual contamination in 15-liter drinking water containers due to dust and residual chemicals (TDS value > 200) after normal washing. A thorough washing process is required before filling the purified water into each container. Unfortunately, the washing procedure and frequency do not align with the work instructions provided by the health department. The measured Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) value of the remaining water was found to range between 195–202, exceeding the standard TDS for excellent drinking water (50-190 ppm). This research uses the design of experiment technique in statistics to improve the washing process and reduce such contamination. Statistical data from our survey of the cleaning process is collected to identify affecting factors. Washing time and water volume are varied to test the efficiency of the washing process in reducing residual sediment in the water. The result indicates that cleaning the 15-liter container with 2 liters of tap water mixed with 15 milliliters of dishwashing liquid for 3.12 minutes per container is optimal, as the resulting TDS reduces to 189.75, falling within the standard value for good drinking water. This study result would benefit the drinking water industry in implementing a statistically evaluated cleaning procedure without conducting multiple trials, thus saving takt time and production costs.

Keywords: design of experiment, drinking water purification, quality management, production process reliability

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Authors: Ziba Talaeizadeh, Taghi Ebadi

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Hospitals and medical centers generate a wide array of infectious waste on a daily basis, leading to pressing environmental concerns associated with proper disposal. Disposable plastic items and spun-bond clothing, commonly made from polypropylene, pose a significant risk of disease transmission, necessitating specialized waste management strategies. Incorporating these materials into bituminous asphalt production offers a potential solution, as it can modify asphalt mixtures and reduce susceptibility to cracking. This study aims to assess the crack resistance of asphalt mixtures modified with hospital spun-bond waste. Asphalt mixtures were prepared using the Marshall method, with spun-bond waste added in varying proportions (5% to 20%). The Semi-Circular Bending (SCB) test was conducted to evaluate asphalt fracture behavior under Mode I loading at controlled speeds of 5, 20, and 50 millimeters per minute and an average temperature of 25°C. Parameters such as fracture energy (FE) and Crack Resistance Index (CRI) were quantified. The results indicate that the addition of 10% to 15% spun-bond polypropylene polymer enhances the performance of the modified mixture, resulting in an 18% increase in fracture energy and an 11% reduction in cracking stiffness compared to the control sample. Further investigations involving factors like compaction level, bitumen type, and aggregate grading are recommended to address medical waste management and mitigate asphalt pavement cracking issues.

Keywords: asphalt cracking, hospital waste, semi-circular bending test, spun-bond

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Authors: Salam Saudagar, Ankit Kamboj, Niraj Mohan, Satgounda Patil, Nilesh Powar

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Task Assignment and Scheduling is a challenging Operations Research problem when there is a limited number of resources and comparatively higher number of tasks. The Cost Management team at Cummins needs to assign tasks based on a deadline and must prioritize some of the tasks as per business requirements. Moreover, there is a constraint on the resources that assignment of tasks should be done based on an individual skill level, that may vary for different tasks. Another constraint is for scheduling the tasks that should be evenly distributed in terms of number of working hours, which adds further complexity to this problem. The proposed greedy approach to solve assignment and scheduling problem first assigns the task based on management priority and then by the closest deadline. This is followed by an iterative selection of an available resource with the least allocated total working hours for a task, i.e. finding the local optimal choice for each task with the goal of determining the global optimum. The greedy approach task allocation is compared with a variant of Hungarian Algorithm, and it is observed that the proposed approach gives an equal allocation of working hours among the resources. The comparative study of the proposed approach is also done with manual task allocation and it is noted that the visibility of the task timeline has increased from 2 months to 6 months. An interactive dashboard app is created for the greedy assignment and scheduling approach and the tasks with more than 2 months horizon that were waiting in a queue without a delivery date initially are now analyzed effectively by the business with expected timelines for completion.

Keywords: assignment, deadline, greedy approach, Hungarian algorithm, operations research, scheduling

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Authors: Felipe Bedoya Maya, Agustina Calatayud, Vileydy Gonzalez Mejia

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Encompassing inventory, warehousing, and transportation management, logistics is a crucial predictor of firm performance. This has been extensively proven by extant literature in business and operations management. Logistics is also a fundamental determinant of a country's ability to access international markets. Available studies in international and transport economics have shown that limited transport infrastructure and underperforming transport services can severely affect international competitiveness. However, the evidence lacks the overall impact of logistics performance-encompassing all inventory, warehousing, and transport components- on global trade. In order to fill this knowledge gap, the paper uses a gravitational trade model with 155 countries from all geographical regions between 2007 and 2018. Data on logistics performance is obtained from the World Bank's Logistics Performance Index (LPI). First, the relationship between logistics performance and a country’s total trade is estimated, followed by a breakdown by the economic sector. Then, the analysis is disaggregated according to the level of technological intensity of traded goods. Finally, after evaluating the intensive margin of trade, the relevance of logistics infrastructure and services for the extensive trade margin is assessed. Results suggest that: (i) improvements in both logistics infrastructure and services are associated with export growth; (ii) manufactured goods can significantly benefit from these improvements, especially when both exporting and importing countries increase their logistics performance; (iii) the quality of logistics infrastructure and services becomes more important as traded goods are technology-intensive; and (iv) improving the exporting country's logistics performance is essential in the intensive margin of trade while enhancing the importing country's logistics performance is more relevant in the extensive margin.

Keywords: gravity models, infrastructure, international trade, logistics

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Authors: Nebiyou Masebo

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The rapid conversion of an old aged agroforestry (AF) based agricultural system to monocropping farming system in southern Ethiopia is increasing. The consequence of this, combined with climate change, has been impaired biodiversity, soil microbial biomass carbon (MBC), and soil organic carbon (SOC). The AF system could curb such problems due it is an ecologically and economically sustainable strategies. This study was aimed to investigate different agroforestry practices (AFPs) on MBC and SOC in southern Ethiopia. Soil samples were collected from homegarden based agroforestry practice (HAFP), crop land based agroforestry practice (ClAFP), woodlot based agroforestry practice (WlAFP), and trees on soil and water conservation based agroforestry practice (TSWAFP) using two depth layer (0-30 & 30-60 cm) by systematic sampling. Moreover, woody species inventorywas also collected. The chloroform fumigation extraction method was employed to determine MBC from different AFP types. In this study, the value of MBC and SOC decreased significantly with soil depth (p< 0.05). Besides, AFP type, soil depth, woody species diversity, and key soil properties also strongly influenced MBC and SOC (p< 0.05). In this study, the MBC was the highest (786 mg kg⁻¹ soil) in HAFP, followed by WlAFP (592 mg kg⁻¹ soil), TSWAFP (421 mg kg⁻¹ soil), and ClAFP (357 mg kg⁻¹ soil). The highest mean value of SOC (43.5Mg C ha⁻¹) was recorded in HAFP, followed by WlAFP (35.1Mg C ha⁻¹), TSWAFP (22.3 Mg C ha⁻¹), while the lowest (21.8 Mg C ha⁻¹) was recorded in ClAFP. The HAFP had high woody species diversity, and the lowest was recorded in ClAFP. The finding indicated that SOC and MBC were significantly affected by land management practices, and HAFP has the potential to improve MBC and SOC through good management practices of AFP.

Keywords: agroforestry practices, microbial biomass carbon, soil carbon, rapid conversion

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Authors: Mindaye Teshome, Evaldo Muñoz Braz, Carlos M. M. Eleto Torres, Patricia Mattos

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Sustainable forest management planning requires up-to-date information on the structure, standing volume, biomass, and growth rate of trees from a given forest. This kind of information is lacking in many forests in Ethiopia. The objective of this study was to quantify the population structure, diameter growth rate, and standing volume of wood from Juniperus procera trees in the Chilimo forest. A total of 163 sample plots were set up in the forest to collect the relevant vegetation data. Growth ring measurements were conducted on stem disc samples collected from 12 J. procera trees. Diameter and height measurements were recorded from a total of 1399 individual trees with dbh ≥ 2 cm. The growth rate, maximum current and mean annual increments, minimum logging diameter, and cutting cycle were estimated, and alternative cutting cycles were established. Using these data, the harvestable volume of wood was projected by alternating four minimum logging diameters and five cutting cycles following the stand table projection method. The results show that J. procera trees have an average density of 183 stems ha⁻¹, a total basal area of 12.1 m² ha⁻¹, and a standing volume of 98.9 m³ ha⁻¹. The mean annual diameter growth ranges between 0.50 and 0.65 cm year⁻¹ with an overall mean of 0.59 cm year⁻¹. The population of J. procera tree followed a reverse J-shape diameter distribution pattern. The maximum current annual increment in volume (CAI) occurred at around 49 years when trees reached 30 cm in diameter. Trees showed the maximum mean annual increment in volume (MAI) around 91 years, with a diameter size of 50 cm. The simulation analysis revealed that 40 cm MLD and a 15-year cutting cycle are the best minimum logging diameter and cutting cycle. This combination showed the largest harvestable volume of wood potential, volume increments, and a 35% recovery of the initially harvested volume. It is concluded that the forest is well stocked and has a large amount of harvestable volume of wood from J. procera trees. This will enable the country to partly meet the national wood demand through domestic wood production. The use of the current population structure and diameter growth data from tree ring analysis enables the exact prediction of the harvestable volume of wood. The developed model supplied an idea about the productivity of the J. procera tree population and enables policymakers to develop specific management criteria for wood harvesting.

Keywords: logging, growth model, cutting cycle, minimum logging diameter

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Authors: Lahcen Daoudi, Fatima Zahra Omdi, Abldelali Gourfi

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In Morocco, as in most Mediterranean countries, water scarcity is a common situation because of low and unevenly distributed rainfall. The expansions of irrigated lands, as well as the growth of urban and industrial areas and tourist resorts, contribute to an increase of water demand. Therefore in the 1960s Morocco embarked on an ambitious program to increase the number of dams to boost water retention capacity. However, the decrease in the capacity of these reservoirs caused by sedimentation is a major problem; it is estimated at 75 million m3/year. Dams and reservoirs became unusable for their intended purposes due to sedimentation in large rivers that result from soil erosion. Soil erosion presents an important driving force in the process affecting the landscape. It has become one of the most serious environmental problems that raised much interest throughout the world. Monitoring soil erosion risk is an important part of soil conservation practices. The estimation of soil loss risk is the first step for a successful control of water erosion. The aim of this study is to estimate the soil loss risk and its spatial distribution in the different fields of Morocco and to prioritize areas for soil conservation interventions. The approach followed is the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) using remote sensing and GIS, which is the most popular empirically based model used globally for erosion prediction and control. This model has been tested in many agricultural watersheds in the world, particularly for large-scale basins due to the simplicity of the model formulation and easy availability of the dataset. The spatial distribution of the annual soil loss was elaborated by the combination of several factors: rainfall erosivity, soil erodability, topography, and land cover. The average annual soil loss estimated in several basins watershed of Morocco varies from 0 to 50t/ha/year. Watersheds characterized by high-erosion-vulnerability are located in the North (Rif Mountains) and more particularly in the Central part of Morocco (High Atlas Mountains). This variation of vulnerability is highly correlated to slope variation which indicates that the topography factor is the main agent of soil erosion within these basin catchments. These results could be helpful for the planning of natural resources management and for implementing sustainable long-term management strategies which are necessary for soil conservation and for increasing over the projected economic life of the dam implemented.

Keywords: soil loss, RUSLE, GIS-remote sensing, watershed, Morocco

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Authors: Rodrigo M. Falleiro, Joaquim P. L. Parime, Luciano C. Santos, Rodrigo D. Silva

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The Cerrado biome is the most biodiverse savanna on the planet. Located in central Brazil, its preservation is seriously threatened by the advance of intensive agriculture and livestock. Conservation Units and Indigenous Lands are increasingly isolated and subject to mega wildfires. Among the characteristics of this savanna, we highlight the high rate of primary biomass production and the reduced occurrence of large grazing animals. In this biome, the predominant fauna is more dependent on the fruits produced by the dicotyledonous species in relation to other tropical savannas. Fire is a key element in the balance between mono and dicotyledons or between the arboreal and herbaceous strata. Therefore, applying fire regimes that maintain the balance between these strata without harming fruit production is essential in the conservation strategies of Cerrado's biodiversity. Recently, Integrated Fire Management has started to be implemented in Brazilian protected areas. As a result, management with prescribed burns has increasingly replaced strategies based on fire exclusion, which in practice have resulted in large wildfires, with highly negative impacts on fruit and fauna production. In the Indigenous Lands, these fires were carried out respecting traditional knowledge. The indigenous people showed great concern about the effects of fire on fruit plants and important animals. They recommended that the burns be carried out between April and May, as it would result in a greater production of edible fruits ("fruiting burning"). In other tropical savannas in the southern hemisphere, the preferential period tends to be later, in the middle of the dry season, when the grasses are dormant (June to August). However, in the Cerrado, this late period coincides with the flowering and sprouting of several important fruit species. To verify the best burning season, the present work evaluated the effects of fire on flowering and fruit production of theByrsonima sp., Mouriri pusa, Caryocar brasiliense, Anacardium occidentale, Pouteria ramiflora, Hancornia speciosa, Byrsonima verbascifolia, Anacardium humille and Talisia subalbens. The evaluations were carried out in the field, covering 31 Indigenous Lands that cover 104,241.18 Km², where 3,386 prescribed burns were carried out between 2015 and 2018. The burning periods were divided into early (carried out during the rainy season), modal or “fruiting” (carried out during the transition between seasons) and late (carried out in the middle of the dry season, when the grasses are dormant). The results corroborate the traditional knowledge, demonstrating that the modal burns result in higher rates of reproduction and fruit production. Late burns showed intermediate results, followed by early burns. We conclude that management strategies based mainly on forage production, which are usually applied in savannas populated by grazing ungulates, may not be the best management strategy for South American savannas. The effects of fire on fruit plants, which have a particular phenologicalsynchronization with the fauna cycle, also need to be observed during the prescription of burns.

Keywords: cerrado biome, fire regimes, native fruits, prescribed burns

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Authors: Latifa Alenezi, Liz Croot, Janet Harris

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Chronic Low Back Pain (CLBP) is one of the most common and recurrent musculoskeletal problems that causes patients to access health care services frequently. The Bio-psychosocial Model emphasises that psychological, behavioural and social factors contribute to the development and persistence of CLBP. Cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) is a psychological pain management strategy that can be used by physiotherapists treating chronic low back pain. However, evidence of the effectiveness of CBT for CLBP varies between different studies. The proposed study was preceded by a mixed methods systematic review that found that CBT has a beneficial effect for CLBP patients when compared to waiting list or other treatments; however, there is variation in effectiveness across different settings. Little is known about how CBT is applied by physiotherapists in physiotherapy settings. The interest of this study is directed towards generating an explanation and understanding of why, when, and how some physiotherapists make decisions and choose to apply CBT for CLBP patients, whereas others do not. Also, how and for what type of CLBP patients does CBT work, and for whom might CBT not work? Therefore, the study will take a qualitative approach to explore CLBP patients’, physiotherapists’ and managers’ perceptions of CBT and how it is used in physiotherapy to enable a deeper understanding and richer explanation of CBT effectiveness and help to inform research and practice. The study will use grounded theory approach to generate an explanatory theory of the clinical application of CBT for CLBP in physiotherapy settings. Physiotherapists, patients and managers of physiotherapy services will be interviewed. Grounded theory techniques will be used to analyse the data. The presentation will describe findings from the interviews and the emerging theory. This research will help to further inform RCTs about the effectiveness of CBT for CLBP in physiotherapy.

Keywords: CBT, CLBP, perception, physiotherapy, theory

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Authors: Ahmet Yetik, Seyit Ali Kara, Cevat Özarpa

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Load changes occur on natural gas and oil pipelines due to natural disasters. The displacement of the soil around the natural gas and oil pipes due to situations that may cause erosion, such as earthquakes, landslides, and floods, is the source of this load change. The exposure of natural gas and oil pipes to variable loads causes deformation, cracks, and breaks in these pipes. Cracks and breaks on the pipes cause damage to people and the environment due to reasons such as explosions. Especially with the examinations made after natural disasters, it can be easily understood which of the pipes has more damage in the regions followed. It has been determined that the earthquakes in Turkey caused permanent damage to the pipelines. This project was designed and realized because it was determined that there were cracks and gas leaks in the insulation gaskets placed in the pipelines, especially at the junction points. In this study, A new SCADA (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition) application has been developed to monitor load changes caused by natural disasters. The newly developed SCADA application monitors the changes in the x, y, and z axes of the stresses occurring in the pipes with the help of strain gauge sensors placed on the pipes. For the developed SCADA system, test setups in accordance with the standards were created during the fieldwork. The test setups created were integrated into the SCADA system, and the system was followed up. Thanks to the SCADA system developed with the field application, the load changes that will occur on the natural gas and oil pipes are instantly monitored, and the accumulations that may create a load on the pipes and their surroundings are immediately intervened, and new risks that may arise are prevented. It has contributed to energy supply security, asset management, pipeline holistic management, and sustainability.

Keywords: earthquake, natural gas pipes, oil pipes, strain measurement, stress measurement, landslide

Procedia PDF Downloads 59

Authors: Zanib Nafees, Amir Razaghizad, Ibtisam Mahmoud, Abhinav Sharma, Renzo Cecere

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More than one million surgeries are performed each year in Canada, resulting in more than 100,000 associated serious adverse events (SAEs) per year. These are defined as unintended injuries or complications that adversely affect the well-being of patients. In recent years, there has been a proliferation of digital health interventions that have the potential to assist, monitor, and educate patients—facilitating self-care following post-operative discharge. Among digital health, interventions are interactive-voice response technologies (IVRs), which have been shown to be highly effective in certain medical settings. Although numerous IVR-based interventions have been developed, their effectiveness and utility remain unclear, notably in post-operative settings. To the best of our knowledge, no systematic or scoping reviews have evaluated this topic to date. Thus, the objective of this scoping review protocol is to systematically map and explore the literature and evidence describing and examining IVR tools, implementation, evaluation, outcome, and experience for post-operative patients. The focus will be primarily on the evaluation of baseline performance status, clinical assessment, treatment outcomes, and patient management, including self-management and self-monitoring. The objective of this scoping review is to assess the extent of the literature to direct future research efforts by identifying gaps and limitations in the literature and to highlight relevant determinants of positive outcomes in the emerging field of IVR monitoring for health outcomes in post-operative patients.

Keywords: digital healthcare technologies, post-surgery, interactive voice technology, interactive voice response

Procedia PDF Downloads 248

Authors: D. T. Chabalala, J. M. Ndambuki, M. F. Ilunga

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Sedimentation includes the processes of erosion, transportation, deposition, and the compaction of sediment. Sedimentation in reservoir results in a decrease in water storage capacity, downstream problems involving aggregation and degradation, blockage of the intake, and change in water quality. A study was conducted in Caledon River catchment in the upstream of Welbedacht Reservoir located in the South Eastern part of Free State province, South Africa. The aim of this research was to investigate and develop a model for an Integrated Catchment Modelling of Sedimentation processes and management for the Welbedacht reservoir. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was applied to determine sources of sediment at different areas of the catchment. The model has been also used to determine the impact of changes from management practice on erosion generation. The results revealed that the main sources of sediment in the watershed are cultivated land (273 ton per hectare), built up and forest (103.3 ton per hectare), and grassland, degraded land, mining and quarry (3.9, 9.8 and 5.3 ton per hectare) respectively. After application of soil conservation practices to developed Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model, the results revealed that the total average annual soil loss in the catchment decreased by 76% and sediment yield from cultivated land decreased by 75%, while the built up and forest area decreased by 42% and 99% respectively. Thus, results of this study will be used by government departments in order to develop sustainable policies.

Keywords: Welbedacht reservoir, sedimentation, RUSLE, Caledon River

Procedia PDF Downloads 182

Authors: Anne Camille P. Balabag, Via B. Cabarda, Ruffa Mae Lomboy, Aira Joyce Nesus

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Nowadays, Filipinos seem to dominate the outsourcing industry, one factor that affects quality service is organization mismanagement. Traditionally, Filipino promotions are based on tenure rather than competence. Seniority refers to a superior rank that an employee holds in an industrial setting based on a position withheld in a company. Yet, seniority also holds the paradigm for Filipino family structures. With this, the researchers believe that Filipinos have a deeper take on seniority, which became the motivation for this study. The researchers wanted to contextualize the Filipino concept of seniority, the perception, and reactions of Filipino employees to its existence, and uncover their relevant experiences within the industrial setting. Following a phenomenological research design, data collected from ten (10) participants with various demographic backgrounds, chosen through purposive sampling, and interviewed utilizing a semi-structured interview and analyzed using thematic analysis revealed seven primary themes: (1) Reality of Tenureship and Competence, (2) Disparity in Age Influence, (3) Special Power of Seniority, (4) Seniority is Necessity, (5) The Filipino Organizational Values, (6) Art of Seniority in Human Resource, and (7) Confessions of the Inner Child. The findings suggest that seniority exists based on a ranking system created through human resource management and mirrored from traditional Filipino values. Also, the researchers identified three Filipino industrial values: respect, pakikipagkapwa-tao (treating others as a fellow human being), and utang na loob (debt of gratitude). Lastly, birth order was found to have direct and indirect effects on their conduct in an industrial context.

Keywords: organizational psychology, human resource management, filipino psychology, industrial values

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Fahad Almehmadi, Abdullah Alrajhi, Bader K. Alaslab, Abdullah A. Al Qurashi, Hattan A. Hassani

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Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Dysplasia/Cardiomyopathy (ARVD/C) is an uncommon, inheritable cardiac disorder characterized by the progressive substitution of cardiac myocytes by fibro-fatty tissues. This pathologic substitution predisposes patients to ventricular arrhythmias and right ventricular failure. The underlying genetic defect predominantly involves genes encoding for desmosome proteins, particularly plakophilin-2 (PKP2). These aberrations lead to impaired cell adhesion, heightening the susceptibility to fibrofatty scarring under conditions of mechanical stress. Primarily, ARVD/C affects the right ventricle, but it can also compromise the left ventricle, potentially leading to biventricular heart failure. Clinical presentations can vary, spanning from asymptomatic individuals to those experiencing palpitations, syncopal episodes, and, in severe instances, sudden cardiac death. The establishment of a diagnostic criterion specifically tailored for ARVD/C significantly aids in its accurate diagnosis. Nevertheless, the task of early diagnosis is complicated by the disease's frequently asymptomatic initial stages, and the overall rarity of ARVD/C cases reported globally. In some cases, as exemplified by the adult female patient in this report, the disease may advance to terminal stages, rendering therapies like Ventricular Tachycardia (VT) ablation ineffective. This case underlines the necessity for increased awareness and understanding of ARVD/C to aid in its early detection and management. Through such efforts, we aim to decrease morbidity and mortality associated with this challenging cardiac disorder.

Keywords: ARVD/C, cardiology, interventional cardiology, cardiac electrophysiology

Procedia PDF Downloads 49

Authors: Surapong Vongvatcharanon, Fardeela Binalee, Wandee Udomuksorn, Ekkasit Kumarnsit, Uraporn Vongvatcharanon

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Hypogonadism is characterized by a decline in sex hormone levels, especially testosterone. It has been shown to be an important contributor to the decrease in muscle mass, muscle strength and performance, a condition known as sarcopenia. Preparations from Butea superba Roxb. (red Kwao Krua) have been reported to have androgenic properties. The active compounds are proposed to be flavonoids and flavonoid glycosides. Treatment with B. superba has been shown to improve erectile dysfunction in males. Parvalbumin (PV) is a relaxing factor and identified in fast twitch fibers. Alterations of the PV levels affects skeletal muscle functions. This study aimed to investigate the effects of orhchidectomy, testosterone replacement and different doses of Butea superba Roxb. on the structure, performance, levels of parvalbumin, parvalbumin and androgen receptor immunoreactivities in the extensor digitorum longus (EDL) and gastrocnemius muscles of orchidectomized rats. Twelve-week old male Wistar rats were randomly divided into 6 groups; sham-operated (SHAM), orchidectomized (BS-0), orchidectomized group that was treated with testosterone replacement of 6 µg/kg (TP) or an orchidectomized group that was treated with various doses of an extract from Butea superba Roxb.; 5 mg/kg (BS-5), 50 mg/kg (BS-50) and 500 mg/kg (BS-500) all for 90 days. The testosterone level, epididymis, seminal vesicle, prostate gland, vas deference weight, muscle fiber size, strength and endurance in both the EDL and gastrocnemius muscle were decreased in the BS-0 group but increased in the testosterone replacement group. Treatment with the B. superba Roxb. extract replacement group improved muscle fiber size, strength and endurance, but not total testosterone levels, or the epididymis, seminal vesicle, prostate gland, vas deference weight. Furthermore, the parvalbumin level, parvalbumin and androgen receptor immunoreactivities were reduced in the BS-0 group but increased in the testosterone replacement group and the B. superba Roxb. extract groups for both the EDL and gastrocnemius muscle. This study indicated that the reduction of testosterone level led to a decrease of the androgen receptor density resulting in a decline in the muscle mass and parvalbumin levels. The decrease of parvalbumin levels affected muscle performance. Testosterone replacement increased the androgen receptor density and led to an increase of muscle mass and parvalbumin levels. The increase in the parvalbumin levels may result in an improvement of muscle performance. This may explain one mechanism of testosterone on muscle mass and strength in the testosterone dependent sarcopenia. The B. superba Roxb. extract groups also had improved muscle mass, strength and endurance, parvalbumin level, parvalbumin and androgen immunoreactivities compared to the BS-O group . Butea superba Roxb. Extracts contains a flavonoid (3, 7, 3'-Trihydroxy-4'-methoxyflavone), flavonoiglycoside (3, 3'-dihydroxy-4'-methoxyflavone-7-O-β-D-glucopyranoside) and isoflavanolignans (butesuperins A and butesuperins B) all known to inhibit the cAMP phosphodiesterase enzyme. Therefore, cAMP signaling may have adaptive effects on skeletal muscle by increasing muscle mass, strength and endurance.

Keywords: Butea superba, parvalbumin, skeletal muscle, orchidectomy

Procedia PDF Downloads 406

Authors: Siliang Luan, Zhongtai Jiang

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The risk of highway incidents is commonly recognized as a major concern for transportation authorities due to the hazardous consequences and negative influence. It is crucial to respond to these unpredictable events as soon as possible faced by emergency management decision makers. In this paper, we focus on path planning for emergency vehicles, one of the most significant processes to avoid congestion and reduce rescue time. A Mixed-Integer Linear Programming with Semi-Soft Time Windows Model (MIPSSTWM) is conducted to plan an optimal routing respectively considering the time consumption of arcs and nodes of the urban road network and the highway network, especially in developing countries with an enormous population. Here, the arcs indicate the road segments and the nodes include the intersections of the urban road network and the on-ramp and off-ramp of the highway networks. An attempt in this research has been made to develop a comprehensive and executive strategy for emergency vehicle routing in heavy traffic conditions. The proposed Cuckoo Search (CS) algorithm is designed by imitating obligate brood parasitic behaviors of cuckoos and Lévy Flights (LF) to solve this hard and combinatorial problem. Using a Chinese city as our case study, the numerical results demonstrate the approach we applied in this paper outperforms the previous method without considering the nodes of the road network for a real-world situation. Meanwhile, the accuracy and validity of the CS algorithm also show better performances than the traditional algorithm.

Keywords: emergency vehicle, path planning, cs algorithm, urban traffic management and urban planning

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Okhee Woo

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Purpose: The aim of this study is to evaluate 2-year cumulative effective radiation dose and cumulative organ dose on regular follow-up computed tomography (CT) scans in patients with breast cancer and to establish personalized low-dose CT protocol. Methods and Materials: A retrospective study was performed on the patients with breast cancer who were diagnosed and managed consistently on the basis of routine breast cancer follow-up protocol between 2012-01 and 2016-06. Based on ICRP (International Commission on Radiological Protection) 103, the cumulative effective radiation doses of each patient for 2-year follow-up were analyzed using the commercial radiation management software (Radimetrics, Bayer healthcare). The personalized effective doses on each organ were analyzed in detail by the software-providing Monte Carlo simulation. Results: A total of 3822 CT scans on 490 patients was evaluated (age: 52.32±10.69). The mean scan number for each patient was 7.8±4.54. Each patient was exposed 95.54±63.24 mSv of radiation for 2 years. The cumulative CT radiation dose was significantly higher in patients with lymph node metastasis (p = 0.00). The HER-2 positive patients were more exposed to radiation compared to estrogen or progesterone receptor positive patient (p = 0.00). There was no difference in the cumulative effective radiation dose with different age groups. Conclusion: To acknowledge how much radiation exposed to a patient is a starting point of management of radiation exposure for patients with long-term CT follow-up. The precise and personalized protocol, as well as iterative reconstruction, may reduce hazard from unnecessary radiation exposure.

Keywords: computed tomography, breast cancer, effective radiation dose, cumulative organ dose

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: T. M. Tawfik, M. A. Badr, E. Y. El-Kady, O. E. Abdellatif

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Electric power shortage is a serious problem in remote rural communities in Egypt. Over the past few years, electrification of remote communities including efficient on-site energy resources utilization has achieved high progress. Remote communities usually fed from diesel generator (DG) networks because they need reliable energy and cheap fresh water. The main objective of this paper is to design an optimal economic power supply from hybrid standalone energy system (HSES) as alternative energy source. It covers energy requirements for reverse osmosis desalination unit (DU) located in National Research Centre farm in Noubarya, Egypt. The proposed system consists of PV panels, Wind Turbines (WT), Batteries, and DG as a backup for supplying DU load of 105.6 KWh/day rated power with 6.6 kW peak load operating 16 hours a day. Optimization of HSES objective is selecting the suitable size of each of the system components and control strategy that provide reliable, efficient, and cost-effective system using net present cost (NPC) as a criterion. The harmonization of different energy sources, energy storage, and load requirements are a difficult and challenging task. Thus, the performance of various available configurations is investigated economically and technically using iHOGA software that is based on genetic algorithm (GA). The achieved optimum configuration is further modified through optimizing the energy extracted from renewable sources. Effective minimization of energy charging the battery ensures that most of the generated energy directly supplies the demand, increasing the utilization of the generated energy.

Keywords: energy management, hybrid system, renewable energy, remote area, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Edward Ridyard, Vinary Varadarajan

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Background and Aims: The first year as a doctor in any country represents a major career transition in any physician's life. During this period, many physicians concentrate on obtaining clinical skills but may not obtain the important skills necessary to cope with stress. In this study we elucidate stress levels amongst FY1 doctors regarding the transitioning into specialty career choices, working in the NHS and anxiety about future career success. Methods: A prospective single blinded analysis of Foundation Year one (FY1) trainees using a non-mandatory online questionnaire was distributed. No exclusion criteria were applied. The only inclusion criteria was the doctor was in a full-time FY1 post and this was their first job in the UK. A total of n= 22 doctors were included in the study. After data collection, statistical analysis using chi-squared testing was applied. Results: The large majority of FY1 doctors (72.7%) already knew what specialty they wished to pursue (p=0.0001). With regards to their future careers 45.5% of FY1 doctors stated "above average" stress levels. The majority of FY1 doctors (64.3%) stated their stress levels working in the NHS were either "above average" or "high". Finally, 81.8% of respondents know colleagues who have been put off from pursuing specialties due to the stress of competition. Conclusions: A large majority of FY1 doctors already know at this early stage what area they would like to specialise in. With this in mind, a large proportion have above "average" levels of stress with regards to securing this future career path. The most worrying finding is that 64.3% of FY1s stated they had "above average" or "high" stress levels working in the NHS. We therefore recommend formal stress management education to be incorporated into the foundation programme curriculum.

Keywords: stress, anxiety, junior doctor, education

Procedia PDF Downloads 358

Authors: Saqib Ali

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Sources are classified into two depending upon the factor of reviving. These sources, which cannot be revived into their original shape once they are consumed, are considered as nonrenewable energy resources, i.e., (coal, fuel) Moreover, those energy resources which are revivable to the original condition even after being consumed are known as renewable energy resources, i.e., (wind, solar, hydel) Renewable energy is a cost-effective way to generate clean and green electrical energy Now a day’s majority of the countries are paying heed to energy generation from RES Pakistan is mostly relying on conventional energy resources which are mostly nonrenewable in nature coal, fuel is one of the major resources, and with the advent of time their prices are increasing on the other hand RES have great potential in the country with the deployment of RES greater reliability and an effective power system can be obtained In this thesis, a similar concept is being used and a hybrid power system is proposed which is composed of intermixing of renewable and nonrenewable sources The Source side is composed of solar, wind, fuel cells which will be used in an optimal manner to serve load The goal is to provide an economical, reliable, uninterruptable power supply. This is achieved by optimal controller (PI, PD, PID, FOPID) Optimization techniques are applied to the controllers to achieve the desired results. Advanced algorithms (Particle swarm optimization, Flower Pollination Algorithm) will be used to extract the desired output from the controller Detailed comparison in the form of tables and results will be provided, which will highlight the efficiency of the proposed system.

Keywords: distributed generation, demand-side management, hybrid power system, micro grid, renewable energy resources, supply-side management

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: Tapan Kumar Dhar

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How well are our city forms designed to adapt to climate change and its resulting uncertainty? What urban design tools can be used to measure and improve resilience to climate change, and how would they do so? In addressing these questions, this paper considers indeterminacy, a concept originated in the resilience literature, to measure the resilience of built environments. In the realm of urban design, ‘indeterminacy’ can be referred to as built-in design capabilities of an urban system to serve different purposes which are not necessarily predetermined. An urban system, particularly that with a higher degree of indeterminacy, can enable the system to be reorganized and changed to accommodate new or unknown functions while coping with uncertainty over time. Underlying principles of this concept have long been discussed in the urban design and planning literature, including open architecture, landscape urbanism, and flexible housing. This paper argues that the concept indeterminacy holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change incrementally and proactively. With regard to sustainable development, both planning and climate change literature highly recommend proactive adaptation as it involves less cost, efforts, and energy than last-minute emergency or reactive actions. Nevertheless, the concept still remains isolated from resilience and climate change adaptation discourses even though the discourses advocate the incremental transformation of a system to cope with climatic uncertainty. This paper considers indeterminacy, as an urban design tool, to measure and increase resilience (and adaptive capacity) of Long Bay’s coastal settlements in Negril, Jamaica. Negril is one of the popular tourism destinations in the Caribbean highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. This paper employs empirical information obtained from direct observation and informal interviews with local people. While testing the tool, this paper deploys an urban morphology study, which includes land use patterns and the physical characteristics of urban form, including street networks, block patterns, and building footprints. The results reveal that most resorts in Long Bay are designed for pre-determined purposes and offer a little potential to use differently if needed. Additionally, Negril’s street networks are found to be rigid and have limited accessibility to different points of interest. This rigidity can expose the entire infrastructure further to extreme climatic events and also impedes recovery actions after a disaster. However, Long Bay still has room for future resilient developments in other relatively less vulnerable areas. In adapting to climate change, indeterminacy can be reached through design that achieves a balance between the degree of vulnerability and the degree of indeterminacy: the more vulnerable a place is, the more indeterminacy is useful. This paper concludes with a set of urban design typologies to increase the resilience of coastal settlements.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, resilience, sea-level rise, urban form

Procedia PDF Downloads 348