Search results for: insurance pricing
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 570

Search results for: insurance pricing

180 Feasibility of BioMass Power Generation in Punjab Province of Pakistan

Authors: Muhammad Ghaffar Doggar, Farah

Abstract:

The primary objective of this feasibility study is to conduct a techno-financial assessment for installation of biomass based power plant in Faisalabad division. The study involves identification of best site for power plant followed by an assessment of biomass resource potential in the area and propose power plant of suitable size. The study also entailed comprehensive supply chain analysis to determine biomass fuel pricing, transportation and storage. Further technical and financial analyses have been done for selection of appropriate technology for the power plant and its financial viability, respectively. The assessment of biomass resources and the subsequent technical analysis revealed that 20 MW biomass power plant could be implemented at one of the locations near Faisalabad city i.e. AARI Site, Near Chak Jhumra district Faisalabad, Punjab province. Three options for steam pressure; namely, 70 bar, 90 bar and 100 bar boilers have been considered. Using international experience and prices on power plant technology and local prices on locally available equipment, the study concludes biomass fuel price of around 50 US dollars (USD) per ton when delivered to power plant site. The electricity prices used for feasibility calculations were 0.13 USD per KWh for electricity from a locally financed project and 0.11 USD per KWh for internationally financed power plant. For local financing the most viable choice is the 70 bar solution and with international financing, the most feasible solution is using a 90 bar boiler. Between the two options, the internationally financed 90 bar boiler setup gives better financial results than the locally financed 70 bar boiler project. It has been concluded that 20 MW with 90 bar power plant and internationally financed would have an equity IRR of 23% and a payback period of 7 years. This will be a cheap option for installation of power plants.

Keywords: AARI, Ayub agriculture research institute, biomass - crops residue, KWh - electricity Units, MG - Muhammad Ghaffar

Procedia PDF Downloads 335
179 Application of Cloud Based Healthcare Information System through a Smart Card in Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Wasmi Woishi

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Smart card technology is a secure and safe technology that is expanding its capabilities day by day in terms of holding important information without alteration. It is readily available, and its ease of portability makes it more efficient in terms of its usage. The smart card is in use by many industries such as financial, insurance, governmental industries, personal identification, to name a few. Smart card technology is popular for its wide familiarity, adaptability, accessibility, benefits, and portability. This research aims to find out the perception toward the application of a cloud-based healthcare system through a smart card in KSA. The research has compiled the countries using a smart card or smart healthcare card and indicated the potential benefits of implementing smart healthcare cards. 120 participants from Riyadh city were surveyed by the means of a closed-ended questionnaire. Data were analyzed through SPSS. This research extends the research body in the healthcare system. Empirical evidence regarding smart healthcare cards is scarce and hence undertaken in this study. The study provides a useful insight into collecting, storing, analyzing, manipulating, and accessibility of medical information regarding smart healthcare cards. Research findings can help achieve KSA's Vision 2030 goals in terms of the digitalization of healthcare systems in improving its efficiency and effectiveness in storing and accessing healthcare data.

Keywords: smart card technology, healthcare using smart cards, smart healthcare cards, KSA healthcare information system, cloud-based healthcare cards

Procedia PDF Downloads 159
178 Using Econometric Methods to Explore Obesity Stigma and Avoidance of Breast and Cervical Cancer Screening

Authors: Stephanie A. Schauder, Gosia Sylwestrzak

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Overweight and obese women report avoiding preventive care due to fear of weight-related bias from medical professionals. Gynecological exams, due to their sensitive and personally invasive nature, are especially susceptible to avoidance. This research investigates the association between body mass index (BMI) and screening rates for breast and cervical cancer using claims data from 1.3 million members of a large health insurance company. Because obesity is associated with increased cancer risk, screenings for these cancers should increase as BMI increases. However, this paper finds that the distribution of cancer screening rates by BMI take an inverted U-shape with underweight and obese members having the lowest screening rates. For cervical cancer screening, those in the target population with a BMI of 23 have the highest screening rate at 68%, while Obese Class III members have a screening rate of 50%. Those in the underweight category have a screening rate of 58%. This relationship persists even after controlling for health and demographic covariates in regression analysis. Interestingly, there is no association between BMI and BRCA (BReast CAncer gene) genetic testing. This is consistent with the narrative that stigma causes avoidance because genetic testing does not involve any assessment of a person’s body. More work must be done to determine how to increase cancer screening rates in those who may feel stigmatized due to their weight.

Keywords: cancer screening, cervical cancer, breast cancer, weight stigma, avoidance of care

Procedia PDF Downloads 194
177 Contractual Risk Transfer in Islamic Home Financing: Analysis in Bank Malaysia

Authors: Ahmad Dahlan Salleh, Nik Abdul Rahim Nik Abdul Ghani, Muhamad Firdaus M. Hatta

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Risk management has implications on pricing, governance arrangements, business practices and strategy. Nowadays, home financing contract offers more in the risk transfer form to increase bank profit. This is parallel with Islamic jurisprudence method al-Kharaj bi al-thaman (gain accompanies liability for loss) and al-ghurm bil ghunm (gain is justified with risk) that determine the matching between risk transfer and returns. Malaysian financing trend is to buy house. Besides, exists transparency lacking risk transfer issues to the clients because of not been informed clearly. Terms and conditions of each financing also do not reflect clearly that the risk has been transferred to the client, justifying a determination price been made. The assumption on risk occurrence is also inaccurate as each risk is different with the type of financing contract. This makes the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 in providing standards that transparent and consistent can be used by Islamic financial institution less effective. This study examines how far the level of the risk and obligation incurred by bank and client under various Islamic home financing contract. This research is qualitative by using two methods, document analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Document analysis from literature review to identify profile, themes and risk transfer element in home financing from Islamic jurisprudence perspective. This study finds that need to create a risk transfer parameter by banks which are consistent with risk transfer theory according to Islamic jurisprudence. This study has potential to assist the authority in Islamic finance such as The Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) in regulating Islamic banking industry so that the risk transfer valuation in home financing contract based on home financing good practice and determined risk limits.

Keywords: risk transfer, home financing contract, Sharia compliant, Malaysia

Procedia PDF Downloads 416
176 Rating Agreement: Machine Learning for Environmental, Social, and Governance Disclosure

Authors: Nico Rosamilia

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The study evaluates the importance of non-financial disclosure practices for regulators, investors, businesses, and markets. It aims to create a sector-specific set of indicators for environmental, social, and governance (ESG) performances alternative to the ratings of the agencies. The existing literature extensively studies the implementation of ESG rating systems. Conversely, this study has a twofold outcome. Firstly, it should generalize incentive systems and governance policies for ESG and sustainable principles. Therefore, it should contribute to the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation. Secondly, it concerns the market and the investors by highlighting successful sustainable investing. Indeed, the study contemplates the effect of ESG adoption practices on corporate value. The research explores the asset pricing angle in order to shed light on the fragmented argument on the finance of ESG. Investors may be misguided about the positive or negative effects of ESG on performances. The paper proposes a different method to evaluate ESG performances. By comparing the results of a traditional econometric approach (Lasso) with a machine learning algorithm (Random Forest), the study establishes a set of indicators for ESG performance. Therefore, the research also empirically contributes to the theoretical strands of literature regarding model selection and variable importance in a finance framework. The algorithms will spit out sector-specific indicators. This set of indicators defines an alternative to the compounded scores of ESG rating agencies and avoids the possible offsetting effect of scores. With this approach, the paper defines a sector-specific set of indicators to standardize ESG disclosure. Additionally, it tries to shed light on the absence of a clear understanding of the direction of the ESG effect on corporate value (the problem of endogeneity).

Keywords: ESG ratings, non-financial information, value of firms, sustainable finance

Procedia PDF Downloads 78
175 Fraud Detection in Credit Cards with Machine Learning

Authors: Anjali Chouksey, Riya Nimje, Jahanvi Saraf

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Online transactions have increased dramatically in this new ‘social-distancing’ era. With online transactions, Fraud in online payments has also increased significantly. Frauds are a significant problem in various industries like insurance companies, baking, etc. These frauds include leaking sensitive information related to the credit card, which can be easily misused. Due to the government also pushing online transactions, E-commerce is on a boom. But due to increasing frauds in online payments, these E-commerce industries are suffering a great loss of trust from their customers. These companies are finding credit card fraud to be a big problem. People have started using online payment options and thus are becoming easy targets of credit card fraud. In this research paper, we will be discussing machine learning algorithms. We have used a decision tree, XGBOOST, k-nearest neighbour, logistic-regression, random forest, and SVM on a dataset in which there are transactions done online mode using credit cards. We will test all these algorithms for detecting fraud cases using the confusion matrix, F1 score, and calculating the accuracy score for each model to identify which algorithm can be used in detecting frauds.

Keywords: machine learning, fraud detection, artificial intelligence, decision tree, k nearest neighbour, random forest, XGBOOST, logistic regression, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
174 The Revenue Management Implementation and Its Complexity in the Airline Industry: An Empirical Study on the Egyptian Airline Industry

Authors: Amr Sultan, Sara Elgazzar, Breksal Elmiligy

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The airline industry nowadays is becoming a more growing industry facing a severe competition. It is an influential issue in this context to utilize revenue management (RM) concept and practice in order to develop the pricing strategy. There is an unfathomable necessity for RM to assist the airlines and their associates to disparage the cost and recuperate their revenue, which in turn will boost the airline industry performance. The complexity of RM imposes enormous challenges on the airline industry. Several studies have been proposed on the RM adaptation in airlines industry while there is a limited availability of implementing RM and its complexity in the developing countries such as Egypt. This research represents a research schema about the implementation of the RM to the Egyptian airline industry. The research aims at investigating and demonstrating the complexities face implementing RM in the airline industry, up on which the research provides a comprehensive understanding of how to overcome these complexities while adapting RM in the Egyptian airline industry. An empirical study was conducted on the Egyptian airline sector based on a sample of four airlines (Egyptair, Britishair, KLM, and Lufthansa). The empirical study was conducted using a mix of qualitative and quantitative approaches. First, in-depth interviews were carried out to analyze the Egyptian airline sector status and the main challenges faced by the airlines. Then, a structured survey on the three different parties of airline industry; airlines, airfreight forwarders, and passengers were conducted in order to investigate the main complexity factors from different parties' points of view. Finally, a focus group was conducted to develop a best practice framework to overcome the complexities faced the RM adaptation in the Egyptian airline industry. The research provides an original contribution to knowledge by creating a framework to overcome the complexities and challenges in adapting RM in the airline industry generally and the Egyptian airline industry particularly. The framework can be used as a RM tool to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of the Egyptian airline industry performance.

Keywords: revenue management, airline industry, revenue management complexity, Egyptian airline industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 391
173 Resource Sharing Issues of Distributed Systems Influences on Healthcare Sector Concurrent Environment

Authors: Soo Hong Da, Ng Zheng Yao, Burra Venkata Durga Kumar

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The Healthcare sector is a business that consists of providing medical services, manufacturing medical equipment and drugs as well as providing medical insurance to the public. Most of the time, the data stored in the healthcare database is to be related to patient’s information which is required to be accurate when it is accessed by authorized stakeholders. In distributed systems, one important issue is concurrency in the system as it ensures the shared resources to be synchronized and remains consistent through multiple read and write operations by multiple clients. The problems of concurrency in the healthcare sector are who gets the access and how the shared data is synchronized and remains consistent when there are two or more stakeholders attempting to the shared data simultaneously. In this paper, a framework that is beneficial to distributed healthcare sector concurrent environment is proposed. In the proposed framework, four different level nodes of the database, which are national center, regional center, referral center, and local center are explained. Moreover, the frame synchronization is not symmetrical. There are two synchronization techniques, which are complete and partial synchronization operation are explained. Furthermore, when there are multiple clients accessed at the same time, synchronization types are also discussed with cases at different levels and priorities to ensure data is synchronized throughout the processes.

Keywords: resources, healthcare, concurrency, synchronization, stakeholders, database

Procedia PDF Downloads 145
172 Prevalence and Risk Factors of Economic Toxicity in Gynecologic Malignancies: A Systematic Review

Authors: Dongliu Li

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Objective: This study systematically evaluates the incidence and influencing factors of economic toxicity in patients with gynecological malignant tumors. Methods: Literature on economic toxicity of gynecological malignancies were comprehensively searched in Pubmed, The Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Embase, CINAHL, CNKI, Wanfang Database, Chinese Biomedical Literature database and VIP database. The search period is up to February 2024. Stata 17 software was used to conduct a single-group meta-analysis of the incidence of economic toxicity in gynecological malignant tumors, and descriptive analysis was used to analyze the influencing factors. Results: A total of 11 pieces of literature were included, including 6475 patients with gynecological malignant tumors. The results of the meta-analysis showed that the incidence of economic toxicity in gynecological malignant tumors was 40% (95%CI 31%—48%). The influencing factors of economic toxicity in patients with gynecological malignant tumors include social demographic factors, medical insurance-related factors and disease-related factors. Conclusion: The incidence of economic toxicity in patients with gynecological malignant tumors is high, and medical staff should conduct early screening of patients according to relevant influencing factors, personalized assessment of patients' economic status, early prevention work and personalized intervention measures.

Keywords: gynecological malignancy, economic toxicity, the incidence rate, influencing factors, systematic review

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171 Development of Automated Quality Management System for the Management of Heat Networks

Authors: Nigina Toktasynova, Sholpan Sagyndykova, Zhanat Kenzhebayeva, Maksat Kalimoldayev, Mariya Ishimova, Irbulat Utepbergenov

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Any business needs a stable operation and continuous improvement, therefore it is necessary to constantly interact with the environment, to analyze the work of the enterprise in terms of employees, executives and consumers, as well as to correct any inconsistencies of certain types of processes and their aggregate. In the case of heat supply organizations, in addition to suppliers, local legislation must be considered which often is the main regulator of pricing of services. In this case, the process approach used to build a functional organizational structure in these types of businesses in Kazakhstan is a challenge not only in the implementation, but also in ways of analyzing the employee's salary. To solve these problems, we investigated the management system of heating enterprise, including strategic planning based on the balanced scorecard (BSC), quality management in accordance with the standards of the Quality Management System (QMS) ISO 9001 and analysis of the system based on expert judgment using fuzzy inference. To carry out our work we used the theory of fuzzy sets, the QMS in accordance with ISO 9001, BSC according to the method of Kaplan and Norton, method of construction of business processes according to the notation IDEF0, theory of modeling using Matlab software simulation tools and graphical programming LabVIEW. The results of the work are as follows: We determined possibilities of improving the management of heat-supply plant-based on QMS; after the justification and adaptation of software tool it has been used to automate a series of functions for the management and reduction of resources and for the maintenance of the system up to date; an application for the analysis of the QMS based on fuzzy inference has been created with novel organization of communication software with the application enabling the analysis of relevant data of enterprise management system.

Keywords: balanced scorecard, heat supply, quality management system, the theory of fuzzy sets

Procedia PDF Downloads 364
170 Effectiveness of Climate Smart Agriculture in Managing Field Stresses in Robusta Coffee

Authors: Andrew Kirabira

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This study is an investigation into the effectiveness of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) technologies in improving productivity through managing biotic and abiotic stresses in the coffee agroecological zones of Uganda. The motive is to enhance farmer livelihoods. The study was initiated as a result of the decreasing productivity of the crop in Uganda caused by the increasing prevalence of pests, diseases and abiotic stresses. Despite 9 years of farmers’ application of CSA, productivity has stagnated between 700kg -800kg/ha/yr which is only 26% of the 3-5tn/ha/yr that CSA is capable of delivering if properly applied. This has negatively affected the incomes of the 10.6 million people along the crop value chain which has in essence affected the country’s national income. In 2019/20 FY for example, Uganda suffered a deficit of $40m out of singularly the increasing incidence of one pest; BCTB. The amalgamation of such trends cripples the realization of SDG #1 and #13 which are the eradication of poverty and mitigation of climate change, respectively. In probing CSA’s effectiveness in curbing such a trend, this study is guided by the objectives of; determining the existing farmers’ knowledge and perceptions of CSA amongst the coffee farmers in the diverse coffee agro-ecological zones of Uganda; examining the relationship between the use of CSA and prevalence of selected coffee pests, diseases and abiotic stresses; ascertaining the difference in the market organization and pricing between conventionally and CSA produced coffee; and analyzing the prevailing policy environment concerning the use of CSA in coffee production. The data collection research design is descriptive in nature; collecting data from farmers and agricultural extension workers in the districts of Ntungamo, Iganga and Luweero; each of these districts representing a distinct coffee agroecological zone. Policy custodian officers at district, cooperatives and at the crop’s overseeing national authority were also interviewed.

Keywords: climate change, food security, field stresses, Productivity

Procedia PDF Downloads 53
169 Corn Production in the Visayas: An Industry Study from 2002-2019

Authors: Julie Ann L. Gadin, Andrearose C. Igano, Carl Joseph S. Ignacio, Christopher C. Bacungan

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Corn production has become an important and pervasive industry in the Visayas for many years. Its role as a substitute commodity to rice heightens demand for health-particular consumers. Unfortunately, the corn industry is confronted with several challenges, such as weak institutions. Considering these issues, the paper examined the factors that influence corn production in the three administrative regions in the Visayas, namely, Western Visayas, Central Visayas, and Eastern Visayas. The data used was retrieved from a variety of publicly available data sources such as the Philippine Statistics Authority, the Department of Agriculture, the Philippine Crop Insurance Corporation, and the International Disaster Database. Utilizing a dataset from 2002 to 2019, the indicators were tested using three multiple linear regression (MLR) models. Results showed that the land area harvested (p=0.02), and the value of corn production (p=0.00) are statistically significant variables that influence corn production in the Visayas. Given these findings, it is suggested that the policy of forest conversion and sustainable land management should be effective in enabling farmworkers to obtain land to grow corn crops, especially in rural regions. Furthermore, the Biofuels Act of 2006, the Livestock Industry Restructuring and Rationalization Act, and supported policy, Senate Bill No. 225, or an Act Establishing the Philippine Corn Research Institute and Appropriating Funds, should be enforced inclusively in order to improve the demand for the corn-allied industries which may lead to an increase in the value and volume of corn production in the Visayas.

Keywords: corn, industry, production, MLR, Visayas

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
168 An Affordability Evaluation of Computer-Based Social-Emotional Skills Interventions for School-Aged Children with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Authors: Ezra N. S. Lockhart

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The number of children diagnosed with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) has increased approximately 173% during the last decade making ASD the fastest growing developmental disability in the United States. This rise in prevalence rates indeed has an effect on schools. ASD is overwhelmingly the most reported primary special education eligibility category for students accessing special education, at a national average of 61.3%. ASD is regarded as an urgent public health concern at an estimated annual per capita cost of $3.2 million. Furthermore, considering that ASD is a lifelong disorder estimated lifetime per capita cost reach $35 billion. The resources available to special education programs are insufficient to meet the educational needs of the 6.4 million students receiving special educational services. This is especially true given that there has been and continues to be a chronic shortage of fully certified special education teachers for decades. Reports indicate that 81.1% of students with special needs spend 40% or more in general education classrooms. Regardless of whether support is implemented in the special education or general education classroom the resource demand is obvious. Schools are actively seeking to implement low-cost alternatives and budget saving measures in response to this demand. In public school settings, programs such as Applied Behavior Analysis are challenging to implement and fund at $40,000 per student per year. As an alternative, computer-based interventions are inexpensive, less time-consuming to implement, and require minimal teacher or paraprofessional training to administer. Affordability, pricing schemes, availability, and compatibility of computer-based interventions that support social and emotional skill development in individuals with ASD are discussed.

Keywords: affordability, autism spectrum disorder, computer-based intervention, emotional skills, social skills

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
167 Challenges of Teaching English as a Foreign Language in the Algerian Universities

Authors: Khedidja Benaicha Mati

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The present research tries to highlight a very crucial issue which exists at the level of the faculty of Economics and Management at Chlef university. This issue is represented by the challenges and difficulties which face the teaching / learning process in the faculty on the part of the language teachers, the learners, and the administration staff, including mainly the absence of an agreed syllabus, lack of teaching materials, teachers’ qualifications and training, timing, coefficient, and lack of motivation and interest amongst students. All these negative factors make teaching and learning EFL rather ambiguous, ineffective and unsatisfactory. The students at the faculty of Economics and Management are looking for acquiring not only GE but also technical English to respond efficiently to the ongoing changes at the various levels most notably economy, business, technology, and sciences. Therefore, there is a need of ESP programmes which would focus on developing the communicative competence of the learners in their specific field of study or work. The aim of the present research is to explore the ways of improving the actual situation of teaching English in the faculty of Economics and to make the English courses more purposive, fulfilling and satisfactory. The sample population focused on second and third-year students of Economics from different specialties mainly commercial sciences, insurance and banking, accountancy, and management. This is done through a questionnaire which inquires students about their learning weaknesses, difficulties and challenges they encounter, and their expectations of the subject matter.

Keywords: faculty of economics and management, challenges, teaching/ learning process, EFL, GE, ESP, English courses, communicative competence

Procedia PDF Downloads 501
166 Fiber Optic Asparagine Biosensor for Fruit Juices by Co-Immobilization of L-Asparaginase and Phenol Red

Authors: Mandeep Kataria, Ritu Narula, Navneet Kaur

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Asparagine is vital amino acid which is required for the development of brain and it regulates the equilibrium of central nervous system. Asparagine is the chief amino acid that forms acrylamide in baked food by reacting with reducing sugars at high temperature ( Millard Reaction i.e. amino acids and sugars give new flavors at high temperature). It can also be a parameter of freshness in fruit juices because on storage of juices at 37°C caused an 87% loss in the total free amino acids and major decrease was recorded in asparagine contents. With this significance of monitoring asparagine, in the present work a biosensor for determining asparagine in fruit juices is developed. For the construction of biosensor L-asparaginase enzyme (0.5 IU) was co-immobilized with phenol red on TEOS chitosan sol-gel plastic disc and fixed on the fiber optic tip. Tip was immersed in a cell having 5ml of substrate and absorption was noted at response time of 5 min with 10-1 - 10-10 M concentrations of asparagine at 538 nm. L-asparaginase was extracted and from Solanum nigrum Asparagine biosensor was applied fruit juices on the monitoring asparagine contents. L-asparagine concentration found to be present in fruit juices like Guava Juice, Apple Juice, Mango Juice, Litchi juice, Strawberry juice, Pineapple juice Lemon juice, and Orange juice. Hence the developed biosensor has commercial aspects in quality insurance of fruit juices.

Keywords: fiber optic biosensor, chitosan, teos, l-asparaginase

Procedia PDF Downloads 284
165 Optimal Design of a PV/Diesel Hybrid System for Decentralized Areas through Economic Criteria

Authors: David B. Tsuanyo, Didier Aussel, Yao Azoumah, Pierre Neveu

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An innovative concept called “Flexy-Energy”is developing at 2iE. This concept aims to produce electricity at lower cost by smartly mix different available energies sources in accordance to the load profile of the region. With a higher solar irradiation and due to the fact that Diesel generator are massively used in sub-Saharan rural areas, PV/Diesel hybrid systems could be a good application of this concept and a good solution to electrify this region, provided they are reliable, cost effective and economically attractive to investors. Presentation of the developed approach is the aims of this paper. The PV/Diesel hybrid system designed consists to produce electricity and/or heat from a coupling between Diesel gensets and PV panels without batteries storage, while ensuring the substitution of gasoil by bio-fuels available in the area where the system will be installed. The optimal design of this system is based on his technical performances; the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Levelized Cost of Energy are developed and use as economic criteria. The Net Present Value (NPV), the internal rate of return (IRR) and the discounted payback (DPB) are also evaluated according to dual electricity pricing (in sunny and unsunny hours). The PV/Diesel hybrid system obtained is compared to the standalone Diesel gensets. The approach carried out in this paper has been applied to Siby village in Mali (Latitude 12 ° 23'N 8 ° 20'W) with 295 kWh as daily demand. This approach provides optimal physical characteristics (size of the components, number of component) and dynamical characteristics in real time (number of Diesel generator on, their load rate, fuel specific consumptions, and PV penetration rate) of the system. The system obtained is slightly cost effective; but could be improved with optimized tariffing strategies.

Keywords: investments criteria, optimization, PV hybrid, sizing, rural electrification

Procedia PDF Downloads 437
164 Modeling of Maximum Rainfall Using Poisson-Generalized Pareto Distribution in Kigali, Rwanda

Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye

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Extreme rainfall events have caused significant damage to agriculture, ecology, and infrastructure, disruption of human activities, injury, and loss of life. They also have significant social, economic, and environmental consequences because they considerably damage urban as well as rural areas. Early detection of extreme maximum rainfall helps to implement strategies and measures, before they occur, hence mitigating the consequences. Extreme value theory has been used widely in modeling extreme rainfall and in various disciplines, such as financial markets, the insurance industry, failure cases. Climatic extremes have been analyzed by using either generalized extreme value (GEV) or generalized Pareto (GP) distributions, which provides evidence of the importance of modeling extreme rainfall from different regions of the world. In this paper, we focused on Peak Over Thresholds approach, where the Poisson-generalized Pareto distribution is considered as the proper distribution for the study of the exceedances. This research also considers the use of the generalized Pareto (GP) distribution with a Poisson model for arrivals to describe peaks over a threshold. The research used statistical techniques to fit models that used to predict extreme rainfall in Kigali. The results indicate that the proposed Poisson-GP distribution provides a better fit to maximum monthly rainfall data. Further, the Poisson-GP models are able to estimate various return levels. The research also found a slow increase in return levels for maximum monthly rainfall for higher return periods, and further, the intervals are increasingly wider as the return period is increasing.

Keywords: exceedances, extreme value theory, generalized Pareto distribution, Poisson generalized Pareto distribution

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
163 Financial Technology: The Key to Achieving Financial Inclusion in Developing Countries Post COVID-19 from an East African Perspective

Authors: Yosia Mulumba, Klaus Schmidt

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Financial Inclusion is considered a key pillar for development in most countries around the world. Access to affordable financial services in a country’s economy can be a driver to overcome poverty and reduce income inequalities, and thus increase economic growth. Nevertheless, the number of financially excluded populations in developing countries continues to be very high. This paper explores the role of Financial Technology (Fintech) as a key driver for achieving financial inclusion in developing countries post the COVID-19 pandemic with an emphasis on four East African countries: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda. The research paper is inspired by the positive disruption caused by the pandemic, which has compelled societies in East Africa to adapt and embrace the use of financial technology innovations, specifically Mobile Money Services (MMS), to access financial services. MMS has been further migrated and integrated with other financial technology innovations such as Mobile Banking, Micro Savings, and Loans, and Insurance, to mention but a few. These innovations have been adopted across key sectors such as commerce, health care, or agriculture. The research paper will highlight the Mobile Network Operators (MNOs) that are behind MMS, along with numerous innovative products and services being offered to the customers. It will also highlight the regulatory framework under which these innovations are being governed to ensure the safety of the customers' funds.

Keywords: financial inclusion, financial technology, regulatory framework, mobile money services

Procedia PDF Downloads 140
162 Incidence of Cancer in Patients with Alzheimer's Disease: A 11-Year Nationwide Population-Based Study

Authors: Jun Hong Lee

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Background: Alzheimer`s disease (AD) I: creases with age and is characterized by the premature progressive loss of neuronal cell. In contrast, cancer cells have inappropriate cell proliferation and resistance to cell death. Objective: We evaluated the association between cancer and AD and also examined the specific types of cancer. Patients and Methods/Material and Methods: This retrospective, nationwide, longitudinal study used National Health Insurance Service – Senior cohort (NHIS-Senior) 2002-2013, which was released by the KNHIS in 2016, comprising 550,000 random subjects who were selected from over than 60. The study included a cohort of 4,408 patients who were first diagnoses as AD between 2003 and 2005. To match each dementia patient, 19,150 subjects were selected from the database by Propensity Score Matching. Results: We enrolled 4,790 patients for analysis in this cohort and the prevalence of AD was higher in female (19.29%) than in male (17.71%). A higher prevalence of AD was observed in the 70-84 year age group and in the higher income status group. A total of 540 cancers occurred within the observation interval. Overall cancer was less frequent in those with AD (12.25%) than in the control (18.46%), with HR 0.704 (95% Confidence Intervals (CIs)=0.0.64-0.775, p-Value < 0.0001). Conclusion: Our data showed a decreased incidence of overall cancers in patients with AD similar to previous studies. Patients with AD had a significantly decreased risk of colon & rectum, lung and stomach cancer. This finding lower than but consistent with Western countries. We need further investigation of genetic evidence linking AD to cancer.

Keywords: Alzheimer, cancer, nationwide, longitudinal study

Procedia PDF Downloads 171
161 Flood Disaster Prevention and Mitigation in Nigeria Using Geographic Information System

Authors: Dinebari Akpee, Friday Aabe Gaage, Florence Fred Nwaigwu

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Natural disasters like flood affect many parts of the world including developing countries like Nigeria. As a result, many human lives are lost, properties damaged and so much money is lost in infrastructure damages. These hazards and losses can be mitigated and reduced by providing reliable spatial information to the generality of the people through about flood risks through flood inundation maps. Flood inundation maps are very crucial for emergency action plans, urban planning, ecological studies and insurance rates. Nigeria experience her worst flood in her entire history this year. Many cities were submerged and completely under water due to torrential rainfall. Poor city planning, lack of effective development control among others contributes to the problem too. Geographic information system (GIS) can be used to visualize the extent of flooding, analyze flood maps to produce flood damaged estimation maps and flood risk maps. In this research, the under listed steps were taken in preparation of flood risk maps for the study area: (1) Digitization of topographic data and preparation of digital elevation model using ArcGIS (2) Flood simulation using hydraulic model and integration and (3) Integration of the first two steps to produce flood risk maps. The results shows that GIS can play crucial role in Flood disaster control and mitigation.

Keywords: flood disaster, risk maps, geographic information system, hazards

Procedia PDF Downloads 220
160 Financial Performance Model of Local Economic Enterprises in Matalam, Cotabato

Authors: Kristel Faye Tandog

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The State Owned Enterprise (SOE) or also called Public Enterprise (PE) has been playing a vital role in a country’s social and economic development. Following this idea, this study focused on the Factor Structures of Financial Performance of the Local Economic Enterprises (LEEs) namely: Food Court, Market, Slaughterhouse, and Terminal in Matalam, Cotabato. It aimed to determine the profile of the LEEs in terms of organizational structure, manner of creation, years in operation, source of initial operating requirements, annual operating budget, geographical location, and size or description of the facility. This study also included the different financial ratios of LEE that covered a five year period from Calendar Year 2009 to 2013. Primary data using survey questionnaire was administered to 468 respondents and secondary data were sourced out from the government archives and financial documents of the said LGU. There were 12 dominant factors identified namely: “management”, “enforcement of laws”, “strategic location”, “existence of non-formal competitors”, “proper maintenance”, “pricing”, “customer service”, “collection process”, “rentals and services”, “efficient use of resources”, “staffing”, and “timeliness and accuracy”. On the other hand, the financial performance of the LEE of Matalam, Cotabato using financial ratios needs reformatting. This denotes that refinement as to the following ratios: Cash Flow Indicator, Activity, Profitability and Growth is necessary. The cash flow indicator ratio showed difficulty in covering its debts in successive years. Likewise, the activity ratios showed that the LEE had not been effective in putting its investment at work. Moreover, profitability ratios revealed that it had operated in minimum capacity and had incurred net losses and thus, it had a weak profit performance. Furthermore, growth ratios showed that LEE had a declining growth trend particularly in net income.

Keywords: factor structures, financial performance, financial ratios, state owned enterprises

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159 Trends of Agri-Food Production and Export Stimulating Economic Policy in Georgia

Authors: E. Kharaishvili, G. Erkomaishvili, M. Chavleishvili

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The paper evaluates the natural and resource potential of agriculture, a traditional sector for Georgia. It is concluded that despite favorable conditions the rate of development of the sector is lower compared to other sectors of the economy, self-sufficiency rate for locally produced agricultural products is low; on average, import of food is 4 times higher compared to export, and the country faces considerable challenges in this regard. Tendencies of self-sufficiency rates are studied, and it is concluded that the indicators of export and import of agro-food products increase in accordance with the tendency of increasing production in agricultural sector. The paper substantiates stimulating impact of international trade on agricultural development. Two alternative strategies are assessed in this respect: 1) export stimulation, and 2) import replacement strategies. It is concluded that significant tendencies are observed in agro-food sector of Georgia; in particular, productivity is low; import volume significantly exceeds the export volume. It is considered that the growth of export will allow Georgia to overcome limited opportunities of local market and encourage increasing competitiveness. Various tools of economic policy are suggested for achieving these goals; in particular to subsidize export, optimize trade barriers, manage exchange rates effectively, offer special financial services, provide insurance for export, etc.

Keywords: agro-food sector, trend of production, export stimulation, economic policy

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158 Health Trajectory Clustering Using Deep Belief Networks

Authors: Farshid Hajati, Federico Girosi, Shima Ghassempour

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We present a Deep Belief Network (DBN) method for clustering health trajectories. Deep Belief Network (DBN) is a deep architecture that consists of a stack of Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM). In a deep architecture, each layer learns more complex features than the past layers. The proposed method depends on DBN in clustering without using back propagation learning algorithm. The proposed DBN has a better a performance compared to the deep neural network due the initialization of the connecting weights. We use Contrastive Divergence (CD) method for training the RBMs which increases the performance of the network. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated extensively on the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) database. The University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a nationally representative longitudinal study that has surveyed more than 27,000 elderly and near-elderly Americans since its inception in 1992. Participants are interviewed every two years and they collect data on physical and mental health, insurance coverage, financial status, family support systems, labor market status, and retirement planning. The dataset is publicly available and we use the RAND HRS version L, which is easy to use and cleaned up version of the data. The size of sample data set is 268 and the length of the trajectories is equal to 10. The trajectories do not stop when the patient dies and represent 10 different interviews of live patients. Compared to the state-of-the-art benchmarks, the experimental results show the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed method in clustering health trajectories.

Keywords: health trajectory, clustering, deep learning, DBN

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157 Contrasting Infrastructure Sharing and Resource Substitution Synergies Business Models

Authors: Robin Molinier

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Industrial symbiosis (I.S) rely on two modes of cooperation that are infrastructure sharing and resource substitution to obtain economic and environmental benefits. The former consists in the intensification of use of an asset while the latter is based on the use of waste, fatal energy (and utilities) as alternatives to standard inputs. Both modes, in fact, rely on the shift from a business-as-usual functioning towards an alternative production system structure so that in a business point of view the distinction is not clear. In order to investigate the way those cooperation modes can be distinguished, we consider the stakeholders' interplay in the business model structure regarding their resources and requirements. For infrastructure sharing (following economic engineering literature) the cost function of capacity induces economies of scale so that demand pooling reduces global expanses. Grassroot investment sizing decision and the ex-post pricing strongly depends on the design optimization phase for capacity sizing whereas ex-post operational cost sharing minimizing budgets are less dependent upon production rates. Value is then mainly design driven. For resource substitution, synergies value stems from availability and is at risk regarding both supplier and user load profiles and market prices of the standard input. Baseline input purchasing cost reduction is thus more driven by the operational phase of the symbiosis and must be analyzed within the whole sourcing policy (including diversification strategies and expensive back-up replacement). Moreover, while resource substitution involves a chain of intermediate processors to match quality requirements, the infrastructure model relies on a single operator whose competencies allow to produce non-rival goods. Transaction costs appear higher in resource substitution synergies due to the high level of customization which induces asset specificity, and non-homogeneity following transaction costs economics arguments.

Keywords: business model, capacity, sourcing, synergies

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156 Scheduling Residential Daily Energy Consumption Using Bi-criteria Optimization Methods

Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Tzu-hsun Yen

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Because of the long-term commitment to net zero carbon emission, utility companies include more renewable energy supply, which generates electricity with time and weather restrictions. This leads to time-of-use electricity pricing to reflect the actual cost of energy supply. From an end-user point of view, better residential energy management is needed to incorporate the time-of-use prices and assist end users in scheduling their daily use of electricity. This study uses bi-criteria optimization methods to schedule daily energy consumption by minimizing the electricity cost and maximizing the comfort of end users. Different from most previous research, this study schedules users’ activities rather than household appliances to have better measures of users’ comfort/satisfaction. The relation between each activity and the use of different appliances could be defined by users. The comfort level is at the highest when the time and duration of an activity completely meet the user’s expectation, and the comfort level decreases when the time and duration do not meet expectations. A questionnaire survey was conducted to collect data for establishing regression models that describe users’ comfort levels when the execution time and duration of activities are different from user expectations. Six regression models representing the comfort levels for six types of activities were established using the responses to the questionnaire survey. A computer program is developed to evaluate electricity cost and the comfort level for each feasible schedule and then find the non-dominated schedules. The Epsilon constraint method is used to find the optimal schedule out of the non-dominated schedules. A hypothetical case is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and the computer program. Using the program, users can obtain the optimal schedule of daily energy consumption by inputting the intended time and duration of activities and the given time-of-use electricity prices.

Keywords: bi-criteria optimization, energy consumption, time-of-use price, scheduling

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155 An Assessment of Factors Affecting the Cost and Time Performance of Subcontractors

Authors: Adedayo Jeremiah Adeyekun, Samuel Oluwagbemiga Ishola,

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This paper is an assessment of factors influencing the cost and time performance of subcontractors and the need for effective performance of subcontractors at the project sites. The factors influencing the performance of subcontractors are grouped, similar to those identified with the project or an organization and on another hand, there are significant factors influencing the performance of the subcontractors. These factors incorporate management level leadership, time required to complete the project, profit, staff capability/expertise, reputation, installment method, organization history, and project procurement method strategy, security, bidding technique, insurance, bond and relationship with the major contractors. The factors influencing the management of subcontractors in building development projects includes performance of significant past projects, standard of workmanship, consistence with guidelines, regular payment to labourers, adherence to program, regularity and viability of communication with main contractor, adherence to subcontract necessities. Other factors comprise adherence to statutory environmental regulations, number of experienced sites administrative staff, inspection and maintenance of good workplace, number of artisans and workers, quality of as-built and shop drawings and ability to carry out the quantity of work and so on. This study also aimed to suggest a way forward to improve the performance of subcontractors which is the reason for exceeding budget at the project sites. To carry out this study, a questionnaire was drafted to derive information on the causes of low performance of subcontractors and the implication to cost.

Keywords: performance, contractor, subcontractors, construction

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154 Impact of Green Bonds Issuance on Stock Prices: An Event Study on Respective Indian Companies

Authors: S. L. Tulasi Devi, Shivam Azad

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The primary objective of this study is to analyze the impact of green bond issuance on the stock prices of respective Indian companies. An event study methodology has been employed to study the effect of green bond issuance. For in-depth study and analysis, this paper used different window frames, including 15-15 days, 10-10 days, 7-7days, 6-6 days, and 5-5 days. Further, for better clarity, this paper also used an uneven window period of 7-5 days. The period of study covered all the companies which issued green bonds during the period of 2017-2022; Adani Green Energy, State Bank of India, Power Finance Corporation, Jain Irrigation, and Rural Electrification Corporation, except Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency and Indian Railway Finance Corporation, because of data unavailability. The paper used all three event study methods as discussed in earlier literature; 1) constant return model, 2) market-adjusted model, and 3) capital asset pricing model. For the fruitful comparison between results, the study considered cumulative average return (CAR) and buy and hold average return (BHAR) methodology. For checking the statistical significance, a two-tailed t-statistic has been used. All the statistical calculations have been performed in Microsoft Excel 2016. The study found that all other companies have shown positive returns on the event day except for the State Bank of India. The results demonstrated that constant return model outperformed compared to the market-adjusted model and CAPM. The p-value derived from all the methods has shown an almost insignificant impact of the issuance of green bonds on the stock prices of respective companies. The overall analysis states that there’s not much improvement in the market efficiency of the Indian Stock Markets.

Keywords: green bonds, event study methodology, constant return model, market-adjusted model, CAPM

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153 Ownership, Management Responsibility and Corporate Performance of the Listed Firms in Kazakhstan

Authors: Gulnara Moldasheva

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The research explores the relationship between management responsibility and corporate governance of listed companies in Kazakhstan. This research employs firm level data of randomly selected listed non-financial firms and firm level data “operational” financial sector, consisted from banking sector, insurance companies and accumulated pension funds using multivariate regression analysis under fixed effect model approach. Ownership structure includes institutional ownership, managerial ownership and private investor’s ownership. Management responsibility of the firm is expressed by the decision of the firm on amount of leverage. Results of the cross sectional panel study for non-financial firms showed that only institutional shareholding is significantly negatively correlated with debt to equity ratio. Findings from “operational” financial sector show that leverage is significantly affected only by the CEO/Chair duality and the size of financial institutions, and insignificantly affected by ownership structure. Also, the findings show, that there is a significant negative relationship between profitability and the debt to equity ratio for non-financial firms, which is consistent with pecking order theory. Generally, the found results suggest that corporate governance and a management responsibility play important role in corporate performance of listed firms in Kazakhstan.

Keywords: ownership, corporate governance, debt to equity ratio, corporate performance

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152 Continuous-Time Convertible Lease Pricing and Firm Value

Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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151 Radio Frequency Identification Device Based Emergency Department Critical Care Billing: A Framework for Actionable Intelligence

Authors: Shivaram P. Arunachalam, Mustafa Y. Sir, Andy Boggust, David M. Nestler, Thomas R. Hellmich, Kalyan S. Pasupathy

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Emergency departments (EDs) provide urgent care to patients throughout the day in a complex and chaotic environment. Real-time location systems (RTLS) are increasingly being utilized in healthcare settings, and have shown to improve safety, reduce cost, and increase patient satisfaction. Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) data in an ED has been shown to compute variables such as patient-provider contact time, which is associated with patient outcomes such as 30-day hospitalization. These variables can provide avenues for improving ED operational efficiency. A major challenge with ED financial operations is under-coding of critical care services due to physicians’ difficulty reporting accurate times for critical care provided under Current Procedural Terminology (CPT) codes 99291 and 99292. In this work, the authors propose a framework to optimize ED critical care billing using RFID data. RFID estimated physician-patient contact times could accurately quantify direct critical care services which will help model a data-driven approach for ED critical care billing. This paper will describe the framework and provide insights into opportunities to prevent under coding as well as over coding to avoid insurance audits. Future work will focus on data analytics to demonstrate the feasibility of the framework described.

Keywords: critical care billing, CPT codes, emergency department, RFID

Procedia PDF Downloads 128