Search results for: health professions council of South Africa
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 12578

Search results for: health professions council of South Africa

12188 The Effects of Molecular and Climatic Variability on the Occurrence of Aspergillus Species and Aflatoxin Production in Commercial Maize from Different Agro-climatic Regions in South Africa

Authors: Nji Queenta Ngum, Mwanza Mulunda

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Introduction Most African research reports on the frequent aflatoxin contamination of various foodstuffs, with researchers rarely specifying which of the Aspergillus species are present in these commodities. Numerous research works provide evidence of the ability of fungi to grow, thrive, and interact with other crop species and focus on the fact that these processes are largely affected by climatic variables. South Africa is a water-stressed country with high spatio-temporal rainfall variability; moreover, temperatures have been projected to rise at a rate twice the global rate. This weather pattern change may lead to crop stress encouraging mold contamination with subsequent mycotoxin production. In this study, the biodiversity and distribution of Aspergillus species with their corresponding toxins in maize from six distinct maize producing regions with different weather patterns in South Africa were investigated. Materials And Methods By applying cultural and molecular methods, a total of 1028 maize samples from six distinct agro-climatic regions were examined for contamination by the Aspergillus species while the high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) method was applied to analyse the level of contamination by aflatoxins. Results About 30% of the overall maize samples were contaminated by at least one Aspergillus species. Less than 30% (28.95%) of the 228 isolates subjected to the aflatoxigenic test was found to possess at least one of the aflatoxin biosynthetic genes. Furthermore, almost 20% were found to be contaminated with aflatoxins, with mean total aflatoxin concentration levels of 64.17 ppb. Amongst the contaminated samples, 59.02% had mean total aflatoxin concentration levels above the SA regulatory limit of 20ppb for animals and 10 for human consumption. Conclusion In this study, climate variables (rainfall reduction) were found to significantly (p<0.001) influence the occurrence of the Aspergillus species (especially Aspergillus fumigatus) and the production of aflatoxin in South Africa commercial maize by maize variety, year of cultivation as well as the agro-climatic region in which the maize is cultivated. This included, amongst others, a reduction in the average annual rainfall of the preceding year to about 21.27 mm, and, as opposed to other regions whose average maximum rainfall ranged between 37.24 – 44.1 mm, resulted in a significant increase in the aflatoxin contamination of maize.

Keywords: aspergillus species, aflatoxins, diversity, drought, food safety, HPLC and PCR techniques

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12187 Conduits of Political Corruption and Patronage in South African Government

Authors: Sandiso Mahlala, Fulufhelo Netswera

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Anecdotes of corruption and clear-cut lines of patronage in political parties and the government are frequently featured in South African newspapers and news media. Such graft and favouritism have institutionalised themselves more and more, resulting in the phenomenon of governmental capture and the diversion of Covid-19 relief monies. In order to further their own interests, political elites and those working in the public and private sectors influenced government decisions in this way. This paper presents examples of state capture, Covid-19 corruption, and patronage, as well as how these have a negative impact on broader governance and society at large. The fact that such corruption and patronage are occurring at a time when the South African economy is stagnating is particularly troubling since it implies that more people are getting less and raises concerns about the country's future political stability. This article further examines how party patronage as one method by which political parties exploit the state. The conceptual nature of the study is supported by a survey of the relevant literature from a range of sources, such as government regulations, media excepts, and scholarly works.

Keywords: political corruption, political patronage, patronage, state capture, COVID-19, corruption, South Africa

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12186 Distribution of Current Emerging Contaminants in South Africa Surface and Groundwater

Authors: Jou-An Chen, Julio Castillo, Errol Duncan Cason, Gabre Kemp, Leana Esterhuizen, Angel Valverde Portal, Esta Van Heerden

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Emerging contaminants (EC) such as pharmaceutical and personal care products have been accumulating for years in water bodies all over the world. However, very little is known about the occurrences, levels, and effects of ECs in South African water resources. This study provides an initial assessment of the distribution of eight ECs (Acetaminophen, Atrazine, Terbuthlyazine, Carbamazepine, Phenyton, Sulfmethoxazole, Nevirapine and Fluconozole) in fifteen water sources from the Free State and Easter Cape provinces of South Africa. Overall, the physiochemical conditions were different in surface and groundwater samples, with concentrations of several elements such as B, Ca, Mg, Na, NO3, and TDS been statistically higher in groundwater. In contrast, ECs levels, quantified at ng/mL using the LC/MS/ESI, were much lower in groundwater samples. The ECs with higher contamination levels were Carbamazepine, Sulfmethoxazole, Nevirapine, and Terbuthlyazine, while the most widespread were Sulfmethoxazole and Fluconozole, detected in all surface and groundwater samples. Fecal and E. coli tests indicated that surface water was more contaminated than groundwater. Microbial communities, assessed using NGS, were dominated by the phyla Proteobacteria and Bacteroidetes, in both surface and groundwater. Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes, and Cyanobacteria, were more dominant in surface water, while Verrucomicrobia were overrepresented in groundwater. In conclusion, ECs contamination is closely associated with human activities (human wastes). The microbial diversity identified can suggest possible biodegradation processes.

Keywords: emerging contaminants, EC, personal care products, pharmaceuticals, natural attenuation process

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12185 Techno-Economic Analysis Framework for Wave Energy Conversion Schemes under South African Conditions: Modeling and Simulations

Authors: Siyanda S. Biyela, Willie A. Cronje

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This paper presents a desktop study of comparing two different wave energy to electricity technologies (WECs) using a techno-economic approach. This techno-economic approach forms basis of a framework for rapid comparison of current and future technologies. The approach also seeks to assist in investment and strategic decision making expediting future deployment of wave energy harvesting in South Africa.

Keywords: cost of energy (COE) tool, sea state, wave energy converter (WEC), WEC-Sim

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12184 Frailty and Quality of Life among Older Adults: A Study of Six LMICs Using SAGE Data

Authors: Mamta Jat

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Background: The increased longevity has resulted in the increase in the percentage of the global population aged 60 years or over. With this “demographic transition” towards ageing, “epidemiologic transition” is also taking place characterised by growing share of non-communicable diseases in the overall disease burden. So, many of the older adults are ageing with chronic disease and high levels of frailty which often results in lower levels of quality of life. Although frailty may be increasingly common in older adults, prevention or, at least, delay the onset of late-life adverse health outcomes and disability is necessary to maintain the health and functional status of the ageing population. This is an effort using SAGE data to assess levels of frailty and its socio-demographic correlates and its relation with quality of life in LMICs of India, China, Ghana, Mexico, Russia and South Africa in a comparative perspective. Methods: The data comes from multi-country Study on Global AGEing and Adult Health (SAGE), consists of nationally representative samples of older adults in six low and middle-income countries (LMICs): China, Ghana, India, Mexico, the Russian Federation and South Africa. For our study purpose, we will consider only 50+ year’s respondents. The logistic regression model has been used to assess the correlates of frailty. Multinomial logistic regression has been used to study the effect of frailty on QOL (quality of life), controlling for the effect of socio-economic and demographic correlates. Results: Among all the countries India is having highest mean frailty in males (0.22) and females (0.26) and China with the lowest mean frailty in males (0.12) and females (0.14). The odds of being frail are more likely with the increase in age across all the countries. In India, China and Russia the chances of frailty are more among rural older adults; whereas, in Ghana, South Africa and Mexico rural residence is protecting against frailty. Among all countries china has high percentage (71.46) of frail people in low QOL; whereas Mexico has lowest percentage (36.13) of frail people in low QOL.s The risk of having low and middle QOL is significantly (p<0.001) higher among frail elderly as compared to non–frail elderly across all countries with controlling socio-demographic correlates. Conclusion: Women and older age groups are having higher frailty levels than men and younger aged adults in LMICs. The mean frailty scores demonstrated a strong inverse relationship with education and income gradients, while lower levels of education and wealth are showing higher levels of frailty. These patterns are consistent across all LMICs. These data support a significant role of frailty with all other influences controlled, in having low QOL as measured by WHOQOL index. Future research needs to be built on this evolving concept of frailty in an effort to improve quality of life for frail elderly population, in LMICs setting.

Keywords: Keywords: Ageing, elderly, frailty, quality of life

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12183 Determinants of Child Malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors: Habtamu Fufa, Yemane Berhane

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Child under nutrition has long-term consequences for intellectual ability, economic productivity, reproductive performance and susceptibility to metabolic and cardiovascular disease. The unacceptably high prevalence of malnutrition in young children of the region has not changed much over the last decades, which could make the achievement of the corresponding Millennium Development Goals very unlikely. Despite the well-documented problems of child malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa, there is few systematic review of evidences on determinants of child malnutrition in the region. The current available evidence on determinants of child under nutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa is systematically reviewed. The method used in searching relevant literature was using bio medical databases PUBMED, Google scholar and the website of the World Health Organization on nutrition using the following key words: "Determinants “, "Child Malnutrition", and "Sub- Saharan Africa". The search was limited to articles published in and after 1995 up to date. In all the reviewed articles, the data were analyzed using multivariate regression analysis and or odds ratios for significance of determinants in child malnutrition. Synthesis of 40 published articles from various countries of the region is done and noted that household economic status, maternal education, disease, breastfeeding practices, age and sex of a child, birth interval and residential areas were found to be determinants of child under nutrition. Poverty remains the main factor of malnutrition in Sub-Saharan Africa and poor education of parents aggravates the malnutrition through perpetuation of poor nutrition practices. Male children under five years are the most affected ones. Understanding of these determinants of poor nutritional attainment would provide insights in designing interventions for reducing the high levels of child malnutrition in this region. Large-scale multi-sectoral community-based interventions are urgently needed for a sustainable improvement of child nutritional & health status in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: child malnutrition, determinants, Sub-Saharan Africa, health status

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12182 Classify Land Use/Cover Change and Its Impact on Soil Erosion Using GIS from 2005 to 2015 in Nzhelele Valley Limpopo Province, South Africa

Authors: Blessing Mavhuru, Nthaduleni Nethengwe, Hector Chikoore, Onyango Beneah Daniel Odhiambo

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The main objective of this study was to classify land use/cover and how it has changed in Nzhelele Valley Limpopo Province, South Africa. The study aimed to identify and analyse the types of land use/cover in the years 2005, 2010, and 2015 with a view to assess the impact on soil erosion over time. Using GIS, the changes within land use/cover were assessed through the classification of satellite images. The study area was classified into four major land cover/use classes, which are vegetation, gravel road, built up land and agricultural fields. Over the period 2005-2015 the resultant land use/cover demonstrated (i) a significant increase (12%) for vegetation cover, (ii) a significant decrease in agriculture (16%) land use/cover, (iii) increase in built-up land (1%), as well as (iv) an increase in gravel roads (3%). This study envisages assisting policy makers in decision making on land use management for Nzhelele Valley.

Keywords: land use, land cover, change, soil erosion

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12181 Validating the Home Experiences of Children that Negatively Impact Their Right to Education in South Africa: The Case of HIV/AIDS Orphans and Vulnerable Children (OVCs) Living in the Amatole District

Authors: Tatenda Manomano, Moreblessing Memory Ndonga

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In South Africa and the world over, despite an array of commendable policies to protect the rights of children, the situation on the ground indicates that HIV/AIDS continues to pose increasing challenges on the children’s’ right to education due to the death of their parents. This study sought to validate the home experiences of children that negatively impact on their right to education in South Africa with a case of HIV/AIDS orphans and vulnerable children (OVCs) in Amatole District. The study utilized a qualitative research method in collecting the feelings, views and attitudes of these children to establish the children’s home experiences. An interview guide with semi-structured questions was used to steer the one-on-one in-depth interviews with children from Parkside Primary School, Langa-Liphumile High School and one anonymous school in East London, Eastern Cape Province. 5 learners were purposively selected from each school and subjected to a one-on-one interview with the researcher. The researcher purposively selected one teacher per school, 2 members each from 3 community based organizations (CBOs) who were also subjected to a one-on-one in-depth interview. The findings indicated these negative experiences of the OVCs in their homes such as; attendance to a school was poor; academic performance was low; enrollment in schools was very low and abuse of these children was high. These researchers recommend for psychosocial support for these children to be placed in the schools; integration of HIV/AIDS programmes to target especially the OVCs; social workers should ensure that they regularly do home visits to these OVCs to establish whether the home circumstances these children are still conducive for them. It is hoped that the findings from this paper will be an asset that other researchers, policy makers, the government and NGOs/CBOs will take into consideration for the benefit of OVCs.

Keywords: orphaned and vulnerable children (OVCs), HIV, AIDS, home experiences

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12180 The Regulation of Alternative Dispute Resolution Institutions in Consumer Redress and Enforcement: A South African Perspective

Authors: Jacolien Barnard, Corlia Van Heerden

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Effective and accessible consensual dispute resolution and in particular alternative dispute resolution, are central to consumer protection legislation. In this regard, the Consumer Protection Act 68 of 2008 (CPA) of South Africa is no exception. Due to the nature of consumer disputes, alternative dispute resolution (in theory) is an effective vehicle for the adjudication of disputes in a timely manner avoiding overburdening of the courts. The CPA sets down as one of its core purposes the provision of ‘an accessible, consistent, harmonized, effective and efficient system of redress for consumers’ (section 3(1)(h) of the CPA). Section 69 of the Act provides for the enforcement of consumer rights and provides for the National Consumer Commission to be the Central Authority which streamlines, adjudicates and channels disputes to the appropriate forums which include Alternative Dispute Resolution Agents (ADR-agents). The purpose of this paper is to analyze the regulation of these enforcement and redress mechanisms with particular focus on the Central Authority as well as the ADR-agents and their crucial role in successful and efficient adjudication of disputes in South Africa. The South African position will be discussed comparatively with the European Union (EU) position. In this regard, the European Union (EU) Directive on Alternative Dispute Resolution for Consumer Disputes (2013/11/EU) will be discussed (The ADR Directive). The aim of the ADR Directive is to solve contractual disputes between consumers and traders (suppliers or businesses) regardless of whether the agreement was concluded offline or online or whether or not the trader is situated in another member state (Recitals 4-6). The ADR Directive provides for a set of quality requirements that an ADR body or entity tasked with resolving consumer disputes should adhere to in member states which include regulatory mechanisms for control. Transparency, effectiveness, fairness, liberty and legality are all requirements for a successful ADR body and discussed within this chapter III of the Directive. Chapters III and IV govern the importance of information and co-operation. This includes information between ADR bodies and the European Commission (EC) but also between ADR bodies or entities and national authorities enforcing legal acts on consumer protection and traders. (In South Africa the National Consumer Tribunal, Provincial Consumer Protectors and Industry ombuds come to mind). All of which have a responsibility to keep consumers informed. Ultimately the papers aims to provide recommendations as to the successfulness of the current South African position in light of the comparative position in Europe and the highlight the importance of proper regulation of these redress and enforcement institutions.

Keywords: alternative dispute resolution, consumer protection law, enforcement, redress

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12179 Health Care Teams during COVID-19: Roles, Challenges, Emotional State and Perceived Preparedness to the Next Pandemic

Authors: Miriam Schiff, Hadas Rosenne, Ran Nir-Paz, Shiri Shinan Altman

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To examine (1) the level, predictors, and subjective perception of professional quality of life (PRoQL), posttraumatic growth, roles, task changes during the pandemic, and perceived preparedness for the next pandemic. These variables were added as part of an international study on social workers in healthcare stress, resilience, and perceived preparedness we took part in, along with Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. (2) The extent to which background variables, rate of exposure to the virus, working in COVID wards, profession, personal resilience, and resistance to organizational change predict posttraumatic growth, perceived preparedness, and PRoQL (the latter was examined among social workers only). (3) The teams' perceptions of how the pandemic impacted them at the personal, professional, and organizational levels and what assisted them. Methodologies: Mixed quantitative and qualitative methods were used. 1039 hospital healthcare workers from various professions participated in the quantitative study while 32 participated in in-depth interviews. The same methods were used in six other countries. Findings: The level of PRoQL was moderate, with higher burnout and secondary traumatization level than during routine times. Differences between countries in the level of PRoQL were found as well. Perceived preparedness for the next pandemic at the personal level was moderate and similar among the different health professions. Higher exposure to the virus was associated with lower perceived preparedness of the hospitals. Compared to other professions, doctors and nurses perceived hospitals as significantly less prepared for the next pandemic. The preparedness of the State of Israel for the next pandemic is perceived as low by all healthcare professionals. A moderate level of posttraumatic growth was found. Staff who worked at the COVID ward reported a greater level of growth. Doctors reported the lowest level of growth. The staff's resilience was high, with no differences among professions or levels of exposure. Working in the COVID ward and resilience predicted better preparedness, while resistance to organizational change predicted worse preparedness. Findings from the qualitative part of the study revealed that healthcare workers reported challenges at the personal, professional and organizational level during the different waves of the pandemic. They also report on internal and external resources they either owned or obtained during that period. Conclusion: Exposure to the COVID-19 virus is associated with secondary traumatization on one hand and personal posttraumatic growth on the other hand. Personal and professional discoveries and a sense of mission helped cope with the pandemic that was perceived as a historical event, war, or mass casualty event. Personal resilience, along with the support of colleagues, family, and direct management, were seen as significant components of coping. Hospitals should plan ahead and improve their preparedness to the next pandemic.

Keywords: covid-19, health-care, social workers, burnout, preparedness, international perspective

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12178 Casteism in United Punjab: A Socio-Cultural Perspective

Authors: Zahoor Ahmad

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Casteism has played a pivotal role in the social setup and political manipulations in Punjab. This tradition dates back to pre-British history. A number of scholars produced valuable work attributing the caste prejudice and division among the local communities. As a matter of fact, the history of Punjab witnessed a tangible economic, Muslim-non-Muslim, hatred culture towards low-profile castes & professions, and so on. It is obvious that caste ridden system already existed in Punjab before the advent of the British, who tremendously supported the same, and this division evidently affected every aspect of the political as well as social life of the region. This article highlights the characteristics of different castes and the contemptuous behavior of the low castes & professions in the area further, how the caste system influenced the local people and their culture.

Keywords: casteism, caste prejudice, division, Punjab

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12177 Females’ Usage Patterns of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) in the Vhembe District, South Africa

Authors: Fulufhelo Oscar Maphiri-Makananise

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The main purpose of this paper is to explore and provide substantiated evidence based on the usage patterns of Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) by females in the Vhembe District in Limpopo-Province, South Africa. The study presents a broader picture and understanding about the usage of ICTs from female’s perspective. The significance of this study stems from the need to discover the role, relevance and usage patterns of ICTs such as smartphones, computers, laptops, and iPods, internet and social networking sites among females following the trends of new media technologies in the society. The main objective of the study was to investigate the usability and accessibility of ICTs to empower the Vhembe District females in South Africa. The study used quantitative research method together with elements of qualitative research to determine the major ideas, perceptions and usage patterns of ICTs by females in the District. Data collection involved structured and self-administered questionnaire with both closed-ended and open-ended questions. Two groups of respondents participated in this study. Media Studies female students (n=50) at the University of Venda provided their ideas and perceptions about the usefulness and usage patterns of ICTs such as smartphones, internet and computers at the university level, while the second group were (n=50) Makhado comprehensive school learners who also provided their perceptions and ideas about the use of ICTs at the high school level. Also, the study provides a more balanced, accurate and rational results on the pertinent issues that concern the use of ICTs by females in the Vhembe District. The researcher also believes that the findings of the study are useful as a guideline and model for ICT intervention that work as an empowerment to women in South Africa. The study showed that the main purpose of using ICTs by females was to search information for writing assignments, conducting research, dating, exchanging ideas and networking with friends and relatives that are also members of social networking sites and maintaining existing friends in real life. The study further revealed that most females were using ICTs for social purposes and accessing the internet than entertaining themselves. The finding also indicated a high number of females that used ICTs for e-learning (62%) and social purposes (85%). Moreover, the study centred on providing strong insightful information on the females’ usage patterns and their perceptions of ICTs in the Vhembe district of Limpopo province.

Keywords: female users, information and communication technologies, internet, usage patterns

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12176 Challenges Brought about by Integrating Multiple Stakeholders into Farm Management Mentorship of Land Reform Beneficiaries in South Africa

Authors: Carlu Van Der Westhuizen

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The South African Agricultural Sector is of major socio-economic importance to the country due to its contribution in maintaining stability in food production and food security, providing labour opportunities, eradicating poverty and earning foreign currency. Against this reality, this paper investigates within the Agricultural Sector in South Africa the changes in Land Policies that the new democratically elected government (African National Congress) brought about since their takeover in 1994. The change in the agricultural environment is decidedly dualistic, with 1) a commercial sector, and 2) a subsistence and emerging farmer sector. The future demands and challenges are mostly identified as those of land redistribution and social upliftment. Opportunities that arose from the challenge of change are, among others, the small-holder participation in the value chain, while the challenge of change in Agriculture and the opportunities that were identified could serve as a yardstick against which the Sectors’ (Agriculture) Performance could be measured in future. Unfortunately, despite all Governments’ Policies, Programmes and Projects and inputs of the Private Sector, the outcomes are, to a large extend, unsuccessful. The urgency with the Land Redistribution Programme is that, for the period 1994 – 2014, only 7.5% of the 30% aim in the redistribution of land was achieved. Another serious aspect of concern is that 90% of the Land Redistribution Projects are not in a state of productive use by emerging farmers. Several reasons may be offered for these failures, amongst others the uncoordinated way in which different stakeholders are involved in a specific farming project. These stakeholders could generally in most cases be identified as: - The Government as the policy maker; - The Private Sector that has the potential to contribute to the sustainable pre- and post-settlement stages of the Programme by cooperating the supporting services to Government; - Inputs from the communities in rural areas where the settlement takes place; - The landowners as sellers of land (e.g. a Traditional Council); and - The emerging beneficiaries as the receivers of land. Mentorship is mostly the medium with which the support are coordinated. In this paper focus will be on three scenarios of different types of mentorship (or management support) namely: - The Taung Irrigation Scheme (TIS) where multiple new land beneficiaries were established by sharing irrigation pivots and receiving mentorship support from commodity organisations within a traditional land sharing system; - Projects whereby the mentor is a strategic partner (mostly a major agricultural 'cooperative' which is also providing inputs to the farmer and responsible for purchasing/marketing all commodities produced); and - An individual mentor who is a private person focussing mainly on farm management mentorship without direct gain other than a monthly stipend paid to the mentor by Government. Against this introduction the focus of the study is investigating the process for the sustainable implementation of Governments’ Land Redistribution in South African Agriculture. To achieve this, the research paper is presented under the themes of problem statement, objectives, methodology and limitations, outline of the research process, as well as proposing possible solutions.

Keywords: land reform, role-players, failures, mentorship, management models

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12175 The Influence of Remuneration Committees, Directors' Shareholding and Institutional Ownership on the Remuneration of Directors in the Large Listed Companies in South Africa

Authors: Henriette Scholtz

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Excessive executive directors’ remuneration remains a major concern for many stakeholders and are some of the factors to blame for the recent global financial crisis. The objective of this study was to examine whether certain firm characteristics are an effective way of protecting shareholders’ interests with respect to executive directors’ remuneration. To achieve this, an ordinary least squares model was used to test the relationship between the remuneration of executive directors and a number of firm and corporate governance characteristics to determine whether these characteristics have an influence on executive directors’ remuneration of large listed companies in South Africa. It was found that corporate governance reforms relating to institutional ownership, shareholder voting on the remuneration policy and the number of remuneration committee meetings acts as an effective governance tool to protect shareholder’s interests with regard to executive remuneration. There is no evidence that the number of non-executive directors on the remuneration committee has an influence on the executive directors’ remuneration.

Keywords: executive directors’ remuneration, agency theory, corporate governance, remuneration committee, directors’ shareholding, institutional ownership

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12174 Contextualizing Household Food Security: A Comparison of Two Villages, Ambros and Maramanzhi, South Africa

Authors: Felicity Aphiwe Mkhongi, Walter Musakwa

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Smallholder crop production is a defining factor in achieving food security, particularly at the household level. However, the number of abandoned arable fields is increasing in communal areas of South Africa. While substantial efforts have been devoted to addressing food insecurity in the country, ownership of arable land has not been supplemented with sustainable food production for households. This paper analyses household food security in the context of deagrarianization in two villages, Ambros (Eastern Cape) and Maramanzhi (Limpopo). Semi-structured questionnaires were administered to acquire both qualitative and quantitative data from 106 heads of households. The IBM SPSS Statistics 28.0 computer program was applied to complete data analysis. From the findings of the study, it was evident that compared to arable fields, a greater proportion of households own home-gardens with an average size of 2100m in Ambros and 3400m in Maramanzhi village. The majority of arable fields were abandoned, particularly in Ambros village. Household food access challenges were measured using the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS). This food security indicator revealed that the majority of households were mildly food insecure owing to food shortages emanating from insufficient monthly income and waning household crop production. Food was rated as a very important reason for engaging in cultivation in both villages of the study, but deagrarianization has eroded opportunities for increasing household crop production. Among other possible solutions, this study recommends that the government invest more in agriculture to allow for sustainable strategies that revive abandoned arable land, such as arable fields in communal areas of South Africa, as this could increase food production for households.

Keywords: cultivation, deagrarianization, food security, rural households, smallholder farmers

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12173 Slöjd International: Translating and Tracking Nordic Curricula for Holistic Health, 1890s-1920s

Authors: Sasha Mullally

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This paper investigates the transnational circulation of European Nordic ideas about and programs for manual education and training over the decades spanning the late 19th and early 20th centuries. Based on the unexamined but voluminous correspondence (English-language) of Otto Salomon, an internationally famous education reformer who popularized a form of manual training called "slöjd" (anglicized as "sloyd"), this paper examines it's circulation and translation across global cultures. Salomon, a multilingual promoter of new standardized program for manual training, based his curricula on traditional handcrqafts, particularly Swedish woodworking. He and his followers claimed that the integration of manual training and craft work provided primary and secondary educators with an opportunity to cultivate the mental, but also the physical, and tangentially, the spiritual, health of children. While historians have examined the networks who came together in person to train at his slöjd school for educators in western Sweden, no one has mapped the international community he cultivated over decades of letter writing. Additionally, while the circulation of his ideas in Britain and Germany, as well as the northeastern United States has been placed in a broader narrative of "western" education reform in the Progressive or late Victorian era, no one has examined the correspondence for evidence of the program's wider international appeal beyond Europe and North America. This paper fills this gap by examining the breadth of his reach through active correspondence with educators in Asia (Japan), South America (Brazil), and Africa (South Africa and Zimbabwe). As such, this research presents an opportunity to map the international communities of education reformers active at the turn of the last century, compare and contrast their understandings of and interpretations of "holistic" education, and reveal the ways manual formation was understood to be foundational to the healthy development of children.

Keywords: history of education, history of medicine and psychiatry, child health, child formation, internationalism

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12172 A Review of the Future of Sustainable Urban Water Supply in South Africa

Authors: Jeremiah Mutamba

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Water is a critical resource for sustainable economic growth and social development. It enables societies to thrive and influences every urban center’s future. Thus, water must always be available in the right quantity and quality. However, in South Africa - a known physically water scarce nation – the future of sustainable urban supply of water may be in jeopardy. The country facing a water crisis influenced by insufficient infrastructure investment and maintenance, recurrent droughts and climate variation, human induced water quality deterioration, as well as growing lack of technical capacity in water institutions, particularly local municipalities. Aside of the eight metropolitan municipalities for the country, most municipalities struggle with provision of reliable water to their citizens. These municipalities contend with having now capable engineers, aging infrastructure with concomitant high system water losses (of 30% and upwards), coupled with growing water demand from expanding industries and population growth. Also, a significant portion (44%) of national water treatment plants are in critically poor condition, requiring urgent rehabilitation. Municipalities also struggle to raise funding to instate projects. All these factors militate against sustainable urban water supply in the country. Urgent mitigation measures are required. This paper seeks to review the extent of the current water supply challenges in South Africa’s urban centers, including searching for practical and cost-effective measures. The study followed a qualitative approach, combining desktop literature research, interviews with key sector stakeholders, and a workshop. Phenomenological data analysis technique was used to study and examine interview data and secondary desktop data. Preliminary findings established the building of technical or engineering capacity, reversal of the high physical water losses, rehabilitation of poor condition and dysfunctional water treatment works, diversification of water resource mix, and water scarcity awareness programs as possible practical solutions. Other proposed solutions include the use of performance-based or value-based contracting to fund initiatives to reduce high system water losses. Out-come based arrangements for revenue increasing water loss reduction projects were considered more practical in funding-stressed local municipalities. If proactively implemented in an integrated manner, these proposed solutions are likely to ensure sustainable urban water supply in South African urban centers in the future.

Keywords: sustainable, water scarcity, water supply, South Africa

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12171 Developing a South African Model of Neuropsychological Rehabilitation for Adults After Acquired Brain Injury

Authors: Noorjehan Joosub-Vawda

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Objectives: The aim of this poster presentation is to examine cultural contextual understandings of ABI that could aid conceptualisation and the development of a model for neuropsychological rehabilitation in this context. Characteristics of the South African context that make the implementation of international NR practices difficult include socioeconomic disparities, sociocultural influences, lack of accessibility to healthcare services, and poverty and unemployment levels. NR services in the developed world have characteristics such as low staff-to-patient ratios and interdisciplinary teams that make them unsuitable for the resource-constrained South African context. Methods: An exploratory, descriptive research design based on programme theory is being followed in the development of a South African model of neuropsychological rehabilitation. Results: The incorporation of African traditional understandings and practices, such as beliefs about ancestral spirits in the etiology of Acquired Brain Injury are relevant to the planning of rehabilitation interventions. Community-Based Rehabilitation workers, psychoeducation, and cooperation among the different systemic levels especially in rural settings is also needed to improve services offered to patients living with ABI. Conclusions. The preliminary model demonstrated in this poster will attempt to build on the strengths of South African communities, incorporating valuable evidence from international models to serve those affected with brain injury in this context.

Keywords: neuropsychological rehabilitation, South Africa, acquired brain injury, developing context

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12170 The Status of BIM Adoption in Six Continents

Authors: Wooyoung Jung, Ghang Lee

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This paper paper reports the worldwide status of building information modeling (BIM) adoption from the perspectives of the engagement level, the Hype Cycle model, the technology diffusion model, and BIM-uses. An online survey was distributed, and 156 experts from six continents responded. Overall, North America was the most advanced continent, followed by Oceania and Europe. Countries in Asia perceived their phase mainly as slope of enlightenment (mature) in the Hype Cycle model. In the technology diffusion model, the main BIM-users worldwide were “early majority” (third phase), but those in the Middle East/Africa and South America were “early adopters” (second phase). In addition, the more advanced the country, the more number of BIM services employed in general. In summary, North America, Europe, Oceania, and Asia were advancing rapidly toward the mature stage of BIM, whereas the Middle East/Africa and South America were still in the early phase. The simple indexes used in this study may be used to track the worldwide status of BIM adoption in long-term surveys.

Keywords: BIM adoption, BIM services, hype cycle model, technology diffusion model

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12169 Critical Factors Boosting the Future Economy of Eritrea: An Empirical Approach

Authors: Biniam Tedros Kahsay, Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay

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Eritrea is a country in the East of Africa. The country is a neighbor of Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Sudan and is bordered by the Red Sea. The country declared its independence from Ethiopia in 1993. Thus, Eritrea has a lot of commonalities with the Northern Part of Ethiopia's tradition, religion, and languages. Many economists suggested that Eritrea is in a very strategic position for world trade roots and has an impact on geopolitics. This study focused on identifying the most important factor in boosting the Eritrean Economy. The paper collected big secondary data from the World Bank, International Trade and Tariff Data (WTO), East African Community (EAC), Ethiopian Statistical Agency (ESA), and the National Statistics Office (Eritrea). Economists consider economic and population growth in determining trade belts in East Africa. One of the most important Trade Belt that will potentially boost the Eritrean economy is the root of Eritrea (Massawa)->Eritea, (Asmara)->Tigray, (Humora)->Tigray, (Dansha)-> Gondar-> Gojjam-> Benshangual Gumuz => {Oromia, South Sudan}->Uganda. The estimate showed that this is one of the biggest trade roots in East Africa and has a participation of more than 150 million people. We employed various econometric analyses to predict the GDP of Eritrea, considering the future trade belts in East Africa. The result showed that the economy of Eritrea from the Trade Belt will have an elasticity estimate of 65.87% of the GDP of Ethiopia, 3.32% of the GDP of South Sudan, and 0.09% of the GDP of Uganda. The result showed that the existence of war has an elasticity of -93% to the GDP of the country. Thus, if Eritrea wants to strengthen its economy from the East African Trade Belt, the country needs to permanently avoid war in the region. Essentially, the country needs to establish a collaborative platform with the Northern part of Ethiopia (Tigray). Thus, establishing a mutual relationship with Tigray will boost the Eritrean economy. In that regard, Eritrean scholars and policymakers need to work on establishing the East African Trade Belt to boost their economy.

Keywords: Eritrea, east Africa trade belt, GDP, cointegration analysis, critical path analysis

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12168 Genetic Diversity of Norovirus Strains in Outpatient Children from Rural Communities of Vhembe District, South Africa, 2014-2015

Authors: Jean Pierre Kabue, Emma Meader, Afsatou Ndama Traore, Paul R. Hunter, Natasha Potgieter

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Norovirus is now considered the most common cause of outbreaks of nonbacterial gastroenteritis. Limited data are available for Norovirus strains in Africa, especially in rural and peri-urban areas. Despite the excessive burden of diarrhea disease in developing countries, Norovirus infections have been to date mostly reported in developed countries. There is a need to investigate intensively the role of viral agents associated with diarrhea in different settings in Africa continent. To determine the prevalence and genetic diversity of Norovirus strains circulating in the rural communities in the Limpopo Province, South Africa and investigate the genetic relationship between Norovirus strains, a cross-sectional study was performed on human stools collected from rural communities. Between July 2014 and April 2015, outpatient children under 5 years of age from rural communities of Vhembe District, South Africa, were recorded for the study. A total of 303 stool specimens were collected from those with diarrhea (n=253) and without (n=50) diarrhea. NoVs were identified using real-time one-step RT-PCR. Partial Sequence analyses were performed to genotype the strains. Phylogenetic analyses were performed to compare identified NoVs genotypes to the worldwide circulating strains. Norovirus detection rate was 41.1% (104/253) in children with diarrhea. There was no significant difference (OR=1.24; 95% CI 0.66-2.33) in Norovirus detection between symptomatic and asymptomatic children. Comparison of the median CT values for NoV in children with diarrhea and without diarrhea revealed significant statistical difference of estimated GII viral load from both groups, with a much higher viral burden in children with diarrhea. To our knowledge, this is the first study reporting on the differences in estimated viral load of GII and GI NoV positive cases and controls. GII.Pe (n=9) were the predominant genotypes followed by GII.Pe/GII.4 Sydney 2012 (n=8) suspected recombinant and GII.4 Sydney 2012 variants(n=7). Two unassigned GII.4 variants and an unusual RdRp genotype GII.P15 were found. With note, the rare GIIP15 identified in this study has a common ancestor with GIIP15 strain from Japan previously reported as GII/untypeable recombinant strain implicated in a gastroenteritis outbreak. To our knowledge, this is the first report of this unusual genotype in the African continent. Though not confirmed predictive of diarrhea disease in this study, the high detection rate of NoV is an indication of subsequent exposure of children from rural communities to enteric pathogens due to poor sanitation and hygiene practices. The results reveal that the difference between asymptomatic and symptomatic children with NoV may possibly be related to the NoV genogroups involved. The findings emphasize NoV genetic diversity and predominance of GII.Pe/GII.4 Sydney 2012, indicative of increased NoV activity. An uncommon GII.P15 and two unassigned GII.4 variants were also identified from rural settings of the Vhembe District/South Africa. NoV surveillance is required to help to inform investigations into NoV evolution, and to support vaccine development programmes in Africa.

Keywords: asymptomatic, common, outpatients, norovirus genetic diversity, sporadic gastroenteritis, South African rural communities, symptomatic

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12167 International Trade, Manufacturing and Employment: The First Two Decades of South African Democracy

Authors: Phillip F. Blaauw, Anna M. Pretorius

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South Africa re-entered the international economy in the early 1990s, after Apartheid, at a time when globalisation was gathering momentum. Globalisation led to a more open economy, increased export volumes and a changed export mix. Manufacturing goods gained ground relative to mining products. After 21 years of democracy, South African researchers and policymakers need to evaluate the impact of international trade on the level of employment and compensation of employees in the South African manufacturing industry. This is important given the consistent and high levels of unemployment in South Africa. This paper has this evaluation as its aim. Two complimenting approaches are utilised. The 27 sub divisions of the South African manufacturing industry are classified according to capital/labour ratios. Possible trends in employment levels and employee compensation for these categories are then identified when comparing levels in 1995 to those in 2014. The supplementing empirical approach is cross-sectional and panel data regressions for the same period. The aim of the regression analysis is to explain the observed changes in employment and employee compensation levels between 1995 and 2014. The first part of the empirical approach revealed that over the 20-year period the intermediate capital intensive, labour intensive an ultra-labour intensive manufacturing industries all showed massive declines in overall employment. Only three of the 19 industries for these classifications showed marginal overall employment gains. The only meaningful gains were recorded in three of the eight capital intensive manufacturing industries. The overall performance of the South African manufacturing industry is therefore dismal at best. This scenario plays itself out for the skilled section of the intermediate capital intensive, labour intensive an ultra-labour intensive manufacturing industries as well. 18 out of the 19 industries displayed declines even for the skilled section of the labour force. The formal regression analysis supplements the above results. Real production growth is a statistically significant (95 per cent confidence level) explanatory variable of the overall employment level for the period under consideration, albeit with a small positive coefficient. The variables with the most significant negative relationship with changes in overall employment were the dummy variables for intermediate capital intensive and labour intensive manufacturing goods. Disaggregating overall changes in employment further in terms of skill levels revealed that skilled employment in particular responded negatively to increases in the ratio between imported and local inputs for manufacturing. The dummy variable for the labour intensive sectors remained negative and statistically significant, indicating that the labour intensive sectors of South African manufacturing remain vulnerable to the loss of employment opportunities. Whereas the first period (1995 to 2001) after the opening of the South African economy brought positive changes for skilled employment, continued increases in imported inputs displaced some of the skilled labour as well, putting further pressure on the South African economy with already high and persistent unemployment levels. Given the negative for the world commodity cycle and a stagnant local manufacturing sector, the challenge for policymakers is getting even more pronounced after South Africa’s political coming of age.

Keywords: capital/labour ratios, employment, employee compensation, manufacturing

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12166 Intervention To Prevent Infections And Reinfections With Intestinal Parasites In People Living With Human Immunodeficiency Virus In Some Parts Of Eastern Cape, South Africa

Authors: Ifeoma Anozie, Teka Apalata, Dominic Abaver

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Introduction: Despite use of Anti-retroviral therapy to reduce the incidence of opportunistic infections among HIV/AIDS patients, rapid episodes of re-infection after deworming are still common occurrences because pharmaceutical intervention alone does not prevent reinfection. Unsafe water and inadequate personal hygiene and parasitic infections are widely expected to accelerate the progression of HIV infection. This is because the chronic immunosuppression of HIV infection encourages susceptibility to opportunistic (including parasitic) infections which is linked to CD4+ cell count of <200 cells/μl. Intestinal parasites such as G. intestinalis and Entamoeba spp are ubiquitous protozoa that remain infectious over a long time in an environment and show resistance to standard disinfection. To control re-infection, the social factors that underpin the prevention need to be controlled. This study aims at prevention of intestinal parasites in people living with HIV/AIDS by using a treatment, hygiene education and sanitation (THEdS) bundle approach. Methods: This study was conducted in four clinics (Ngangelizwe health centre, Tsolo gateway clinic, Idutywa health centre and Nqamakwe health centre) across the seven districts in Eastern cape, South Africa. The four clinics were divided in two: experimental and control, for the purpose of intervention. Data was collected from March 2019 to February 2020. Six hundred participants were screened for intestinal parasitic infections. Stool samples were collected and analysed twice: before (Pre-test infection screening) and after (Post-test re-infection) THEdS bundle intervention. The experimental clinics received full intervention package, which include therapeutic treatment, health education on personal hygiene and sanitation training, while the control clinics received only therapeutic treatment for those found with intestinal parasitic infections. Results: Baseline prevalence of Intestinal Parasites isolated shows 12 intestinal parasites with overall frequency of 65, with Ascaris lumbricoides having most frequency (44.6%). The intervention had a cure rate of 60%, with odd ratio of 1.42, which indicates that the intervention group is 1.42 times more likely of parasite clearing as compared to the control group. The relative risk ratio of 1.17 signifies that there is 1.17 times more likelihood to clear intestinal parasite if there no intervention. Discussion and conclusion: Infection with multiple parasites can cause health defects, especially among HIV/AIDS patients. Efficiency of some HIV vaccines in HIV/AIDS patients is affected because treatment of re-infection amplifies drug resistance, affects the efficacy of the front-line drugs, and still permits transmission. In South Africa, treatment of intestinal parasites is usually offered to clinic attending HIV/AIDS patients upon suspicion but not as a mandate for patients being initiated into Antiretroviral (ART) program. The effectiveness of THEdS bundle advocates for inclusiveness of mandatory screening for intestinal parasitic infections among attendees of HIV/Aids clinics on regular basis.

Keywords: cure rate, , HIV/AIDS patients, intestinal parasites, intervention studies, reinfection rate

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12165 Conceptual Analysis of the Implications of Black Fathers’ Lifestyles and Their Involvement in their Children’s Early Development

Authors: Chinedu Ifedi Okeke

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The behavioural orientations of fathers, which resonate in the way they relate to members of their families and other community members, appear to have a variety of implications for the early development of children. In this paper, a conceptual map of fathers’ lifestyles is adopted to provide an interconnected network of father lifestyles. Empirical evidence from a qualitative case study of 25 Black fathers, who had been purposively selected from a suburb in one rural Eastern Cape municipality in South Africa, is reported in this paper. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were used to obtain data, which was analysed thematically. Findings identify and provide evidence of father lifestyles that are incongruent with the kind of parental behaviour needed to support the healthy early development of children. Findings suggest that these negative lifestyles appear to incapacitate fathers who fail to make a positive contribution to their children’s early development. To ensure that fathers make the expected contributions to their children’s early development, policies aimed at rehabilitating fathers who are involved in the negative lifestyles reported in this paper should be put in place.

Keywords: childhood development, fathering, fathers, intervention strategies, lifestyles, South Africa

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12164 Testing Psychopathy as a Unified Theory of Crime and the Psychometric properties of the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory - Short Version among South African Youth

Authors: Leon Holtzhausen, Emma Campbell

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This study aimed to explore the psychometric properties of the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory- short version (YPI-S) and the applicability of Psychopathy as a Unified Theory of Crime among 213 young adults in South Africa. The deviant behaviour variety scale and the YPI-S were used in this study. Results from factor analysis and reliability measures indicated the YPI-S seemed to have good psychometric properties when applied to the South African sample, however applicability of the behavioural dimension was a challenge. The results related to the association between deviant behaviours and psychopathic traits suggested that Psychopathy as a Unified Theory of Crime could be applied in the South African context. It is however important to note that future research should explore how the relevant scales could be culturally and contextually adapted for better psychometric outcomes.

Keywords: testing psychopathy, adverse childhood experiences, youth psychopathic traits inventory, young adults

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12163 Interrogating Democracy and Development in Africa: A Case Study of Nigeria

Authors: Yusuf Bala

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The last decades of the 20th Centaury witnessed renewed hope about the birth of democracy and development in Africa the interface between democracy and development in Africa has long engaged the sustained interest of scholars and researchers across Africa. The process was actively supported by all segment of society, labour students market women, rural dweller who saw in it, the prospects of reversing the trend of political despair and in disillusionment that hither to characterized political life in Africa. The political tyranny and dictatorship while having it own clientele and beneficiaries had negative and suffocating effect on the majority of the people. The democratic aspiration of the Africa people is not only confined to the Arena of political Democracy of election and granting of civil and political rights, but it involves the demand for economic empowerment better living standards of the people and adequate social welfare indeed, for the majority of the people democracy is meaningful only when it delivers socio-economic goods. However, democracy and development have generated enormous interest no conclusive evidence seems to be shared in Africa. In the course of this research emphasis shall be made on certain issues, such as issues of corruption in democracy in Africa, ethnic conflict and democracy in Africa contribution of women to democratic practice and women participation in political arena, is still very low, democratization process and industrial relation in Africa as factor that hinder the development of Democracy in Africa, a case study of Nigeria.

Keywords: democracy, development, dictatorship, conflict, ethnicity

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12162 Assessing Urban Health Disparities in South Asia: A Comparative Study Using the Urban Health Index

Authors: Fiza Azam, Sahar Zia, Fatima Nazir Ali, Aysha Hanif

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Health is a fundamental human right, and a healthy population is essential for the prosperity and sustainable development of any country. This research is aligned with United Nations' Goal 3: Good Health and Well-being. It aims to assess and rank key health indicators across selected South Asian countries. The study focuses on urban areas in these nations, drawing on data from the World Bank’s primary collection of relevant indicators and specific health determinants outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO). These determinants include the physical environment, income and social status, education, social support networks, and personal behavior. To evaluate disparities in urban health across the region, the Urban Health Index (UHI) developed by Georgia State University, USA, is employed, followed by a mapping technique including visualization through a choropleth map to identify the pattern of spatial variations in our key variables, such as socioeconomic indicators across the region. This index serves as a comparative tool to rank health outcomes, where higher UHI values indicate better health conditions. The findings reveal notable disparities across South Asia. Afghanistan, with the lowest UHI score of 0.0423, ranks first, indicating the least favorable urban health conditions. Pakistan follows with a UHI score of 0.1190. Bangladesh and India rank third and fourth with UHI scores of 0.3099 and 0.3250, respectively. The Maldives and Sri Lanka rank fifth and sixth, with UHI scores of 0.3432 and 0.3495. Bhutan is ranked seventh with a score of 0.4750. Nepal, with a UHI score of 0.5012, ranks eighth, indicating the best urban health conditions among the countries studied. The findings of this research are crucial for addressing health disparities, improving living conditions, and enhancing social well-being in the region. These insights can inform policy measures aimed at reducing inequalities and promoting sustainable urban health in South Asia.

Keywords: urban health index, health disparities, sustainable development, South Asia, World Health Organization, United Nations, living conditions, public health

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12161 Variation in N₂ Fixation and N Contribution by 30 Groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) Varieties Grown in Blesbokfontein Mpumalanga Province, South Africa

Authors: Titus Y. Ngmenzuma, Cherian. Mathews, Feilx D. Dakora

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In Africa, poor nutrient availability, particularly N and P, coupled with low soil moisture due to erratic rainfall, constitutes the major crop production constraints. Although inorganic fertilizers are an option for meeting crop nutrient requirements for increased grain yield, the high cost and scarcity of inorganic inputs make them inaccessible to resource-poor farmers in Africa. Because crops grown on such nutrient-poor soils are micronutrient deficient, incorporating N₂-fixing legumes into cropping systems can sustainably improve crop yield and nutrient accumulation in the grain. In Africa, groundnut can easily form an effective symbiosis with native soil rhizobia, leading to marked N contribution in cropping systems. In this study, field experiments were conducted at Blesbokfontein in Mpumalanga Province to assess N₂ fixation and N contribution by 30 groundnut varieties during the 2018/2019 planting season using the ¹⁵N natural abundance technique. The results revealed marked differences in shoot dry matter yield, symbiotic N contribution, soil N uptake and grain yield among the groundnut varieties. The percent N derived from fixation ranged from 37 to 44% for varieties ICGV131051 and ICGV13984. The amount of N-fixed ranged from 21 to 58 kg/ha for varieties Chinese and IS-07273, soil N uptake from 31 to 80 kg/ha for varieties IS-07947 and IS-07273, and grain yield from 193 to 393 kg/ha for varieties ICGV15033 and ICGV131096, respectively. Compared to earlier studies on groundnut in South Africa, this study has shown low N₂ fixation and N contribution to the cropping systems, possibly due to environmental factors such as low soil moisture. Because the groundnut varieties differed in their growth, symbiotic performance and grain yield, more field testing is required over a range of differing agro-ecologies to identify genotypes suitable for different cropping environments

Keywords: ¹⁵N natural abundance, percent N derived from fixation, amount of N-fixed, grain yield

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12160 Formulation and Test of a Model to explain the Complexity of Road Accident Events in South Africa

Authors: Dimakatso Machetele, Kowiyou Yessoufou

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Whilst several studies indicated that road accident events might be more complex than thought, we have a limited scientific understanding of this complexity in South Africa. The present project proposes and tests a more comprehensive metamodel that integrates multiple causality relationships among variables previously linked to road accidents. This was done by fitting a structural equation model (SEM) to the data collected from various sources. The study also fitted the GARCH Model (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity) to predict the future of road accidents in the country. The analysis shows that the number of road accidents has been increasing since 1935. The road fatality rate follows a polynomial shape following the equation: y = -0.0114x²+1.2378x-2.2627 (R²=0.76) with y = death rate and x = year. This trend results in an average death rate of 23.14 deaths per 100,000 people. Furthermore, the analysis shows that the number of crashes could be significantly explained by the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001), number of unregistered vehicles (P = 0.003) and the population of the country (P < 0.001). As opposed to expectation, the number of driver licenses issued and total distance traveled by vehicles do not correlate significantly with the number of crashes (P > 0.05). Furthermore, the analysis reveals that the number of casualties could be linked significantly to the number of registered vehicles (P < 0.001) and total distance traveled by vehicles (P = 0.03). As for the number of fatal crashes, the analysis reveals that the total number of vehicles (P < 0.001), number of registered (P < 0.001) and unregistered vehicles (P < 0.001), the population of the country (P < 0.001) and the total distance traveled by vehicles (P < 0.001) correlate significantly with the number of fatal crashes. However, the number of casualties and again the number of driver licenses do not seem to determine the number of fatal crashes (P > 0.05). Finally, the number of crashes is predicted to be roughly constant overtime at 617,253 accidents for the next 10 years, with the worse scenario suggesting that this number may reach 1 896 667. The number of casualties was also predicted to be roughly constant at 93 531 overtime, although this number may reach 661 531 in the worst-case scenario. However, although the number of fatal crashes may decrease over time, it is forecasted to reach 11 241 fatal crashes within the next 10 years, with the worse scenario estimated at 19 034 within the same period. Finally, the number of fatalities is also predicted to be roughly constant at 14 739 but may also reach 172 784 in the worse scenario. Overall, the present study reveals the complexity of road accidents and allows us to propose several recommendations aimed to reduce the trend of road accidents, casualties, fatal crashes, and death in South Africa.

Keywords: road accidents, South Africa, statistical modelling, trends

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12159 Inner and Outer School Contextual Factors Associated with Poor Performance of Grade 12 Students: A Case Study of an Underperforming High School in Mpumalanga, South Africa

Authors: Victoria L. Nkosi, Parvaneh Farhangpour

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Often a Grade 12 certificate is perceived as a passport to tertiary education and the minimum requirement to enter the world of work. In spite of its importance, many students do not make this milestone in South Africa. It is important to find out why so many students still fail in spite of transformation in the education system in the post-apartheid era. Given the complexity of education and its context, this study adopted a case study design to examine one historically underperforming high school in Bushbuckridge, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa in 2013. The aim was to gain a understanding of the inner and outer school contextual factors associated with the high failure rate among Grade 12 students.  Government documents and reports were consulted to identify factors in the district and the village surrounding the school and a student survey was conducted to identify school, home and student factors. The randomly-sampled half of the population of Grade 12 students (53) participated in the survey and quantitative data are analyzed using descriptive statistical methods. The findings showed that a host of factors is at play. The school is located in a village within a municipality which has been one of the poorest three municipalities in South Africa and the lowest Grade 12 pass rate in the Mpumalanga province.   Moreover, over half of the families of the students are single parents, 43% are unemployed and the majority has a low level of education. In addition, most families (83%) do not have basic study materials such as a dictionary, books, tables, and chairs. A significant number of students (70%) are over-aged (+19 years old); close to half of them (49%) are grade repeaters. The school itself lacks essential resources, namely computers, science laboratories, library, and enough furniture and textbooks. Moreover, teaching and learning are negatively affected by the teachers’ occasional absenteeism, inadequate lesson preparation, and poor communication skills. Overall, the continuous low performance of students in this school mirrors the vicious circle of multiple negative conditions present within and outside of the school. The complexity of factors associated with the underperformance of Grade 12 students in this school calls for a multi-dimensional intervention from government and stakeholders. One important intervention should be the placement of over-aged students and grade-repeaters in suitable educational institutions for the benefit of other students.

Keywords: inner context, outer context, over-aged students, vicious cycle

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