Search results for: Mann-Kendall Trend Analysis

Authors: Sezgi Isik, Yasin Urersoy, Gizem Ustunel, Ilkyaz Yalcin

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Improvement of the digital tile application, lots of process revolutions have occurred in the tile production. In order to create unique and inimitable designs, all the competitors start to try different applications. Both Europian and domestic ceramic producers focus on the deep and realistic surfaces. In this study, the trend of engoglaze, which is becoming widespread in glaze porcelain tile designs to create the most intensive colours, were investigated. The aim of the study is to develop engoglaze formulation that supports digital ink activation. Thermal expansion coefficient values were determined by a dilatometer. Chemical analyses and sintering behaviors of engoglazes were made by X-ray diffraction and heat microscopy analysis. According to these glaze formulation studies, it has been reported that using engoglaze could easily reduce the digital ink consumption of the design. On the other hand, the advantage of the production cost is gained, and deepness of the design is provided.

Keywords: ceramic, engoglaze, digital ink activation, glazed porcelain tile

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Authors: Waheed O. Majekodunmi

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Climate change is a real global phenomenon and an unquestionable threat to our quest for a healthy and livable planet. It is now regarded as potentially the most monumental environmental challenge people and the planet will be confronted with over the next centuries. Expectedly, climate change mitigation was one of the central themes of COP 28. Despite contributing the least to climate change, Africa is and remains the hardest hit by the negative consequences of climate change including poor growth performance. Currently, it is being hypothesized that the high level of vulnerability and exposure to climate-related disasters, low adaptive capacity against global warming and high mitigation costs of climate change across the continent could be linked to the recent abysmal economic performance of African countries, especially in oil-producing countries where greenhouse gas emissions, is potentially more prevalent. This paper examines the impact of climate change on the economic performance of selected oil-producing countries in Africa using evidence from Nigeria, Algeria and Angola. The objective of the study is to determine whether or not climate change influences the economic performance of oil-producing countries in Africa by examining the nexus between economic growth and climate-related variables. The study seeks to investigate the effect of climate change on the pace of economic growth in African oil-producing countries. To achieve the research objectives, this study utilizes a quantitative approach by using historical and current secondary data sets to determine the relationship between climate-related variables and economic growth variables in the selected countries. The study employed numbers, percentages, tables and trend graphs to explain the trends or common patterns between climate change, economic growth and determinants of economic growth: governance effectiveness, infrastructure, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency. Results from the empirical analysis of data show that the trends of economic growth and climate-related variables in the selected oil-producing countries are in the opposite directions as the increasing share of renewable energy sources in total energy consumption and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the oil-producing countries did not translate to higher economic growth. Further findings show that annual surface temperatures in the selected countries do not share similar trends with the food imports ratio and GDP per capita annual growth rate suggesting that climate change does not impact significantly agricultural productivity and economic growth in oil-producing countries in Africa. Annual surface temperature was also found to not share a similar pattern with governance effectiveness, macroeconomic stability and regulatory efficiency reinforcing the claim that some economic growth variables are independent of climate change. The policy implication of this research is that oil-producing African countries need to focus more on improving the macroeconomic environment and streamlining governance and institutional processes to boost their economic performance before considering the adoption of climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Keywords: climate change, climate vulnerability, economic growth, greenhouse gas emissions per capita, oil-producing countries, share of renewable energy in total energy consumption

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Authors: Zhuoran Shan, Li Wan, Xianchun Zhang

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With an increasing trend of regionalization and polycentricity in Chinese contemporary big cities, “sub-region life circle” turns to be an effective method on rational organization of urban function and spatial structure. By the method of questionnaire, network big data, route inversion on internet map, GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression, this article makes research on characteristic and formation mechanism of “sub-region life circle” based on human high-probability daily activity in Chinese big cities. Firstly, it shows that “sub-region life circle” has been a new general spatial sphere of residents' high-probability daily activity and mobility in China. Unlike the former analysis of the whole metropolitan or the micro community, “sub-region life circle” has its own characteristic on geographical sphere, functional element, spatial morphology and land distribution. Secondly, according to the analysis result with Binary Logistic Regression Model, the research also shows that seven factors including land-use mixed degree and bus station density impact the formation of “sub-region life circle” most, and then analyzes the index critical value of each factor. Finally, to establish a smarter “sub-region life circle”, this paper indicates that several strategies including jobs-housing fit, service cohesion and space reconstruction are the keys for its spatial organization optimization. This study expands the further understanding of cities' inner sub-region spatial structure based on human daily activity, and contributes to the theory of “life circle” in urban's meso-scale.

Keywords: sub-region life circle, characteristic, formation mechanism, human activity, spatial structure

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Authors: Saeed Jahanbakhsh Asl, Yaghob Dinpazhoh, Masoumeh Foroughi

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Reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) is an important element in the water cycle that integrates atmospheric demands and surface conditions, and analysis of changes in ET₀ is of great significance for understanding climate change and its impacts on hydrology. As ET₀ is an integrated effect of climate variables, increases in air temperature should lead to increases in ET₀. ET₀ estimated by using the globally accepted Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith (FAO-56 PM) method in 18 meteorological stations located in the West of Iran. The trends of ET₀ detected by using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test. The slopes of the trend lines were computed by using the Sen’s slope estimator. The results showed significant increasing as well as decreasing trends in the annual and monthly ET₀. However, ET₀ trends were increasing. In the monthly scale, the number of the increasing trends was more than the number of decreasing trends, in the majority of warm months of the year.

Keywords: climate change, Mann–Kendall, Penman-Monteith method (FAO-56 PM), reference crop evapotranspiration

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Authors: Abdelhadi Nadjer

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The structure of the text to the systemic school -(glossématique-Helmslev). At the beginning of the note we have a cursory look around the concepts of general linguistics The science that studies scientific study of human language based on the description and preview the facts away from the trend of education than we gave a detailed overview the founder of systemic school and most important customers and more methods and curriculum theory and analysis they extend to all humanities, practical action each offset by a theoretical and the procedure can be analyzed through the elements that pose as another method we talked to its links with other language schools where they are based on the sharp criticism of the language before and deflected into consideration for the field of language and its erection has outside or language network and its participation in the actions (non-linguistic) and after that we started our Valglosamatik analytical structure of the text is ejected text terminal or all of the words to was put for expression. This text Negotiable divided into types in turn are divided into classes and class should not be carrying a contradiction and be inclusive. It is on the same materials as described relationships that combine language and seeks to describe their relations and identified.

Keywords: text, language schools, linguistics, human language

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Authors: M.S. El-Feky, Passant Youssef, Mohamed I. Serag

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nowadays, nanotechnology is the main trend of research in different areas due to the new potential of using nanometer materials sized less than 100nm. Nanomaterials are needed in cement composites to act as bridging for Nano and micro-cracks to increase tensile strength, reduce the permeability of gases and water in concrete to solve corrosion problem, react with excess Calcium Hydroxide, produce additional C-S-H, act as filler materials to densify the cement matrix and increase its mechanical properties. The present study focuses on the effectiveness of super-plasticizers and ultrasonic processing on the dispersion of Carbon Nanotube at first in water and then in cement composites in combination with Nano silica to enhance the mechanical properties of cement composites. A qualitative analysis using a compressive strength test is conducted with a view to investigate the influence of different dispersion techniques on the mechanical properties of cement composites containing Carbon Nanotube (CNT) and Nano Silica (NS) particles with different percentages. In addition, micro-structural analysis was carried out to understand the surface morphology and microstructure of cement composites with different dosages of NS addition. The investigational study results showed that the combination of NS with a low amount of CNT had a positive effect on the hydration reaction; on the other hand, the combination of CNT and a high amount of NS had a negative effect on the hydration reaction. The compressive strength can be improved by optimum combination 0.02% CNT and 1% NS with gain in strength by 72% and 35% after 7 and 28 days compared to control samples; these results were with an agreement with the morphology structure of composites using microstructure analysis.

Keywords: nano silica, dispersion, sonication, carbon nano tubes

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Authors: Wang Zhanquan, Yang Zeping, Gu Chunhua, Zhu Fazhi, Guo Weibin

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Recently, Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) are becoming the new trend of education. There are many problems under the environment of Database Principle curriculum teaching process in MOOCs, such as teaching ideas and theories which are out of touch with the reality, how to carry out the technical teaching and interactive practice in the MOOCs environment, thus the methods of database course under the environment of MOOCs are proposed. There are three processes to deal with problem solving in the research, which are problems proposed, problems solved, and inductive analysis. The present research includes the design of teaching contents, teaching methods in classroom, flipped classroom teaching mode under the environment of MOOCs, learning flow method and large practice homework. The database designing ability is systematically improved based on the researching methods.

Keywords: problem solving-driven, MOOCs, teaching art, learning flow;

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Authors: Tang Mui Joo, Chan Eang Teng

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The use of social media has become more defined. It has been widely used for the purpose of business. More marketers are now using social media as tools to enhance their businesses. Whereas on the other hand, there are more and more people spending their time through mobile apps to be engaged in the social media sites like YouTube, Facebook, Twitter and others. Social media has even become common in Public Relations (PR). It has become number one platform for creating and sharing content. In view to this, social media has changed the rules in PR where it brings new challenges and opportunities to the profession. Although corporate websites, chat-rooms, email customer response facilities and electronic news release distribution are now viewed as standard aspects of PR practice, many PR practitioners are still struggling with the impact of new media though the implementation of social media is potentially reducing the cost of communication. It is to the point that PR practitioners are not fully embracing new media, they are ill-equipped to do so and they have a fear of the technology. Somehow that social media has become a new style of communication that is characterized by conversation and community. It has become a platform that allows individuals to interact with one another and build relationship among each other. Therefore, in the use of business world, consumers are able to interact with those companies that have joined any social media. Based on their experiences with social networking site interactions, they are also exposed to personal interaction while communicating. This paper is to study the impact of social media to PR. This paper discovers the potential changes of PR practices in a developing country like Malaysia. Eventually the study reflects on how PR practitioners are actually using social media in the country. This paper is based on two theories in its development of this research foundation. Media Ecology Theory is to support the impact and changes to PR. Social Penetration Theory is to reflect on how the use of social media is among PRs. This research is using survey with PR practitioners in its data collection. The results have shown that PR professionals value social media more than they actually use it and the way of organizations communicate had been changed due to the transformation of social media.

Keywords: new media, social media, PR, change of trend, communication, digital culture

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Authors: Ali M. Subyani

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The increase in the greenhouse gas emission has had a severe impact on global climate change and is bound to affect the weather patterns worldwide. This climate change impacts are among the future significant effects on any society. Rainfall levels are drastically increasing with flash floods in some places and long periods of droughts in others, especially in arid regions. These extreme events are causes of interactions concerning environmental, socio-economic and cultural life and their implementation. This paper presents the detailed features of dry and wet spell durations and rainfall intensity series available (1971-2012) on daily basis for the Jeddah area, Western, Saudi Arabia. It also presents significant articles for combating the climate change impacts on this area. Results show trend changes in dry and wet spell durations and rainfall amount on daily, monthly and annual time series. Three rain seasons were proposed in this investigation: high rain, low rain, and dry seasons. It shows that the overall average dry spell durations is about 80 continuous days while the average wet spell durations is 1.39 days with an average rainfall intensity of 8.2 mm/day. Annual and seasonal autorun analyses confirm that the rainy seasons are tending to have more intense rainfall while the seasons are becoming drier. This study would help decision makers in future for water resources management and flood risk analysis.

Keywords: climate change, daily rainfall, dry and wet spill, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

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Authors: John Okanda Okwaro

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Carbon (IV) oxide (CO₂) is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources of interest of carbon (IV) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport systems, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario, business-as-usual scenario, and optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of energy. Also, the CO₂ concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and optimistic scenarios give CO₂ concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 408.1 ppm, and 360.1 ppm, respectively, on December 31st, 2021. This research helps paint the picture to the policymakers of the relationship between energy sources and CO₂ emissions. Since the reduction in CO₂ emission was due to decreased use of fossil fuel as there was a decrease in economic activities, then if Kenya relies more on green energy than fossil fuel in the post-COVID-19 period, there will be more CO₂ emission reduction. That is, the CO₂ concentration trend is likely to follow the optimistic scenario path, hence a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 48 ppm by the end of the year 2021. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, mine machinery and equipment maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover.

Keywords: forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, hierarchical data format

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Authors: Ahmad Dahlan Salleh, Nik Abdul Rahim Nik Abdul Ghani, Muhamad Firdaus M. Hatta

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Risk management has implications on pricing, governance arrangements, business practices and strategy. Nowadays, home financing contract offers more in the risk transfer form to increase bank profit. This is parallel with Islamic jurisprudence method al-Kharaj bi al-thaman (gain accompanies liability for loss) and al-ghurm bil ghunm (gain is justified with risk) that determine the matching between risk transfer and returns. Malaysian financing trend is to buy house. Besides, exists transparency lacking risk transfer issues to the clients because of not been informed clearly. Terms and conditions of each financing also do not reflect clearly that the risk has been transferred to the client, justifying a determination price been made. The assumption on risk occurrence is also inaccurate as each risk is different with the type of financing contract. This makes the Islamic Financial Services Act 2013 in providing standards that transparent and consistent can be used by Islamic financial institution less effective. This study examines how far the level of the risk and obligation incurred by bank and client under various Islamic home financing contract. This research is qualitative by using two methods, document analysis, and semi-structured interviews. Document analysis from literature review to identify profile, themes and risk transfer element in home financing from Islamic jurisprudence perspective. This study finds that need to create a risk transfer parameter by banks which are consistent with risk transfer theory according to Islamic jurisprudence. This study has potential to assist the authority in Islamic finance such as The Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia) in regulating Islamic banking industry so that the risk transfer valuation in home financing contract based on home financing good practice and determined risk limits.

Keywords: risk transfer, home financing contract, Sharia compliant, Malaysia

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Authors: Liaqat Ali, Khalid Farooq, Shafieullah Khan, Nasir Orakzai, Qudratullah

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Objectives: To determine the risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin in complicated urinary tract infections. Materials and Methods: It is an analytical study that was conducted in the department of Urology (Team ‘C’) at Institute of Kidney Diseases Hayatabad Peshawar from 1st June 2012 till 31st December 2012. Total numbers of 100 patients with complicated UTI was selected in the study. Multivariate analysis and linear regression were performed for the detection of risk factors. All the data was recorded on structured Proforma and was analyzed on SPSS version 17. Results: The mean age of the patient was 55.6 years (Range 3-82 years). 62 patients were male while 38 patients were female. 66 isolates of E-Coli were found sensitive to ciprofloxacin while 34 isolates were found Resistant for ciprofloxacin. Using multivariate analysis and linear regression, an increasing age above 50 (p=0.002) History of urinary catheterization especially for bladder outflow obstruction (p=0.001) and previous multiple use of ciprofloxacin (p=0.001) and poor brand of ciprofloxacin were found to be independent risk factors for high resistance of ciprofloxacin. Conclusion: UTI is common illness across the globe with increasing trend of antimicrobial resistance for ciprofloxacin against E Coli in complicated UTI. The risk factors for emerging resistance are increasing age, urinary catheterization and multiple use and poor brand of ciprofloxacin.

Keywords: urinary tract infection, ciprofloxacin, urethral catheterization, antimicrobial resistance

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Authors: P. Mounnarath, U. Schmitz, Ch. Zhang

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Fragility analysis is an effective tool for the seismic vulnerability assessment of civil structures in the last several years. The design of the expansion joints according to various bridge design codes is almost inconsistent, and only a few studies have focused on this problem so far. In this study, the influence of the expansion joint clearances between the girder ends and the abutment backwalls on the seismic fragility assessment of continuous integral bridge frames is investigated. The gaps (ranging from 60 mm, 150 mm, 250 mm and 350 mm) are designed by following two different bridge design code specifications, namely, Caltrans and Eurocode 8-2. Five bridge models are analyzed and compared. The first bridge model serves as a reference. This model uses three-dimensional reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements with simplified supports at both ends of the girder. The other four models also employ reinforced concrete fiber beam-column elements but include the abutment backfill stiffness and four different gap values. The nonlinear time history analysis is performed. The artificial ground motion sets, which have the peak ground accelerations (PGAs) ranging from 0.1 g to 1.0 g with an increment of 0.05 g, are taken as input. The soil-structure interaction and the P-Δ effects are also included in the analysis. The component fragility curves in terms of the curvature ductility demand to the capacity ratio of the piers and the displacement demand to the capacity ratio of the abutment sliding bearings are established and compared. The system fragility curves are then obtained by combining the component fragility curves. Our results show that in the component fragility analysis, the reference bridge model exhibits a severe vulnerability compared to that of other sophisticated bridge models for all damage states. In the system fragility analysis, the reference curves illustrate a smaller damage probability in the earlier PGA ranges for the first three damage states, they then show a higher fragility compared to other curves in the larger PGA levels. In the fourth damage state, the reference curve has the smallest vulnerability. In both the component and the system fragility analysis, the same trend is found that the bridge models with smaller clearances exhibit a smaller fragility compared to that with larger openings. However, the bridge model with a maximum clearance still induces a minimum pounding force effect.

Keywords: expansion joint clearance, fiber beam-column element, fragility assessment, time history analysis

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Authors: H. Hakim, C. Kibert, C. Fabre, S. Monadizadeh

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Construction industry is an industry saddled with chronic problems of high waste generation. Waste management that is to ensure materials are utilized in an efficient manner would make a major contribution to mitigating the negative environmental impacts of construction waste including finite resources depletion and growing occupied landfill areas to name a few. Furthermore, ‘material resource efficiency’ has been found an economically smart approach specially when considered during the design phase. One effective strategy is to utilizing off-site construction process which includes a series of prefabricated systems such as mobile, modular, and HUD construction (Department of Housing and Urban Development manufactured buildings). These types of buildings are by nature material and resource-efficient. Despite conventional construction that is exposed to adverse weather conditions, manufactured construction production line is capable of creating repetitive units in a factory controlled environment. A factory can have several parallel projects underway with a high speed and in a timely manner which simplifies the storage of excess materials and re-allocating to the next projects. The literature reports that prefabricated construction significantly helps reduce errors, site theft, rework, and delayed problems and can ultimately lead to a considerable waste reduction. However, there is not sufficient data to quantify this reduction when it comes to a regular modular house in the U.S. Therefore, this manuscript aims to provide an analysis of waste originated from a manufactured factory trend. The analysis was made possible with several visits and data collection of Homes of Merits, a Florida Manufactured and Modular Homebuilder. The results quantify and verify a noticeable construction waste reduction.

Keywords: construction waste, modular construction, prefabricated buildings, waste management

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Authors: Wilaiwan Jongwilaikasaem, Phatteera Sarakornborrirak

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While Thai television producers feel anxious about digital disruption, Love Destiny, Thai television period drama became smash hit in Thailand in 2018. Audience throughout the country not only watched the drama both offline and online but also spread the content of the drama on social media and followed cultural trends from the protagonist. Thus, the main purpose of this article is to examine the secret behind the success of Love Destiny. Data were collected from content analysis and in-depth interview. The result shows that the key success of the drama is from earned media phenomenon from the audience and marketers’ engagement. As Love Destiny has full-flavored content with traditional challenged plot, delicate production, and presentation of Thainess in a positive and tangible way; audience and marketers are enthusiastic about building up the popular trend of Love Destiny on social media and also coming back home to watch televisions when the drama was on the air.

Keywords: Thai drama, earned media, Love Destiny, television

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Authors: M. Lobzhanidze, N. Damenia

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The article analyzes the current structural changes in the economy of Georgia, liberalization and integration processes of the economy. In accordance with this analysis, the peculiarities and the problems of youth employment are revealed. In the paper, the Georgian labor market and its contradictions are studied. Based on the analysis of materials, the socio-economic losses caused by the long-term and mass unemployment of young people are revealed, the objective and subjective circumstances of getting higher education are studied. The youth employment and unemployment rates are analyzed. Based on the research, the factors that increase unemployment are identified. According to the analysis of the youth employment, it has appeared that the unemployment share in the number of economically active population has increased in the younger age group. It demonstrates the high requirements of the labour market in terms of the quality of the workforce. Also, it is highlighted that young people are exposed to a highly paid job. The following research methods are applied in the presented paper: statistical (selection, grouping, observation, trend, etc.) and qualitative research (in-depth interview), as well as analysis, induction and comparison methods. The article presents the data by the National Statistics Office of Georgia and the Ministry of Agriculture of Georgia, policy documents of the Parliament of Georgia, scientific papers by Georgian and foreign scientists, analytical reports, publications and EU research materials on similar issues. The work estimates the students and graduates employment problems existing in the state development strategy and priorities. The measures to overcome the challenges are defined. The article describes the mechanisms of state regulation of youth employment and the ways of improving this regulatory base. As for major findings, it should be highlighted that the main problems are: lack of experience and incompatibility of youth qualification with the requirements of the labor market. Accordingly, it is concluded that the unemployment rate of young people in Georgia is increasing.

Keywords: migration of youth, youth employment, migration management, youth employment and unemployment

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Authors: Reshmita Nath

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In this study, we investigate the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in India and its impact on agriculture during the summer season (April to September). For our analysis, we have used Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) datasets between 1982 and 2012 at six-month timescale. Based on the criteria SPEI<-1 we obtain the vulnerability map and have found that the Humid subtropical Upper Middle Gangetic Plain (UMGP) region is highly drought prone with an occurrence frequency of 40-45%. This UMGP region contributes at least 18-20% of India’s annual cereal production. Not only the probability, but the region becomes more and more drought-prone in the recent decades. Moreover, the cereal production in the UMGP has experienced a gradual declining trend from 2000 onwards and this feature is consistent with the increase in drought affected areas from 20-25% to 50-60%, before and after 2000, respectively. The higher correlation coefficient (-0.69) between the changes in cereal production and drought affected areas confirms that at least 50% of the agricultural (cereal) losses is associated with drought. While analyzing the individual impact of precipitation and surface temperature anomalies on SPEI (6), we have found that in the UMGP region surface temperature plays the primary role in lowering of SPEI. The linkage is further confirmed by the correlation analysis between the SPEI (6) and surface temperature rise, which exhibits strong negative values in the UMGP region. Higher temperature might have caused more evaporation and drying, which therefore increases the area affected by drought in the recent decade.

Keywords: drought, agriculture, SPEI, Indo-Gangetic plain

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Ali Jahanfar, Brajesh Dubey, Bahram Gharabaghi, Saber Bayat Movahed

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Ever increasing population growth of major urban centers and environmental challenges in siting new landfills have resulted in a growing trend in design of mega-landfills some with extraordinary heights and dangerously steep slopes. Landfill failure mobility risk analysis is one of the most uncertain types of dynamic rheology models due to very large inherent variabilities in the heterogeneous solid waste material shear strength properties. The waste flow of three historic dumpsite and two landfill failures were back-analyzed using run-out modeling with DAN-W model. The travel distances of the waste flow during landfill failures were calculated approach by taking into account variability in material shear strength properties. The probability distribution function for shear strength properties of the waste material were grouped into four major classed based on waste material compaction (landfills versus dumpsites) and composition (high versus low quantity) of high shear strength waste materials such as wood, metal, plastic, paper and cardboard in the waste. This paper presents a probabilistic method for estimation of the spatial extent of waste avalanches, after a potential landfill failure, to create maps of vulnerability scores to inform property owners and residents of the level of the risk.

Keywords: landfill failure, waste flow, Voellmy rheology, friction coefficient, waste compaction and type

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Authors: Babak Mohajeri

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In recent years, the conventional business model of ownership has been changed towards accessibility in a variety of markets. Two trends can be observed in the evolution of this rental-like business model. Firstly, the technological development that enables the emergence of new business models. These new business models increasingly become agile and flexible. For example Spotify, an online music stream company provides consumers access to over millions of music tracks, conveniently through the smartphone, tablet or computer. Similarly, Car2Go, the car sharing company accesses its members with flexible and nearby sharing cars. The second trend is the increasing communication and connections via social networks. This trend enables a shift to peer-to-peer accessibility based business models. Conventionally, companies provide access for their customers to own companies products or services. In peer-to-peer model, nonetheless, companies facilitate access and connection across their customers to use other customers owned property or skills, competencies or services .The is so-called the sharing economy business model. The aim of this study is to investigate into a new and emerging type of the sharing economy model in which role of customers and service providers may dramatically change. This new model is called Collaborative Service Networks. We propose a mechanism for Collaborative Service Networks business model. Uber and Airbnb, two successful growing companies, have been selected for our case studies and their business models are analyzed. Finally, we study the emergence of the collaborative service networks in the manufacturing domain. Our finding results to a new manufacturing paradigm called social manufacturing.

Keywords: sharing economy, collaborative service networks, social manufacturing, manufacturing development

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Authors: Marike Venter de Villiers, Jessica Ramoshaba

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In recent years, the fashion industry has been associated with the exploitation of both people and resources. This is largely due to the emergence of the fast fashion concept, which entails rapid and continual style changes where clothes quickly lose their appeal, become out-of-fashion, and are then disposed of. This cycle often entails appalling working conditions in sweatshops with low wages, child labor, and a significant amount of textile waste that ends up in landfills. Although the awareness of the negative implications of ‘mindless fashion production and consumption’ is growing, fast fashion remains to be a popular choice among the youth. This is especially prevalent in South Africa, a poverty-stricken country where a vast number of young adults are unemployed and living in poverty. Despite being in poverty, the celebrity conscious culture and fashion products frequently portrayed on the growing intrusive social media platforms in South Africa pressurizes the consumers to purchase fashion and luxury products. Young adults are therefore more vulnerable to the temptation to purchase fast fashion products. A possible solution to the detrimental effects that the fast fashion industry has on the environment is the revival of the secondhand clothing trend. Although the popularity of secondhand clothing has gained momentum among selected consumer segments, the adoption rate of such remains slow. The main purpose of this study was to explore consumers’ perceptions of the secondhand clothing trend and to gain insight into factors that inhibit the adoption of secondhand clothing. This study also aimed to investigate whether consumers are aware of the negative implications of the fast fashion industry and their likelihood to shift their clothing purchases to that of secondhand clothing. By means of a quantitative study, fifty young females were asked to complete a semi-structured questionnaire. The researcher approached females between the ages of 18 and 35 in a face-to-face setting. The results indicated that although they had an awareness of the negative consequences of fast fashion, they lacked detailed insight into the pertinent effects of fast fashion on the environment. Further, a number of factors inhibit their decision to buy from secondhand stores: firstly, the accessibility to the latest trends was not always available in secondhand stores; secondly, the convenience of shopping from a chain store outweighs the inconvenience of searching for and finding a secondhand store; and lastly, they perceived secondhand clothing to pose a hygiene risk. The findings of this study provide fashion marketers, and secondhand clothing stores, with insight into how they can incorporate the secondhand clothing trend into their strategies and marketing campaigns in an attempt to make the fashion industry more sustainable.

Keywords: eco-friendly fashion, fast fashion, secondhand clothing, eco-friendly fashion

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Authors: Sun Zhe, Ruggero Micheletto

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As discussed extensively in many studies, noise in neural networks have an important role in the functioning and time evolution of the system. The mechanism by which noise induce stochastic resonance enhancing and influencing certain operations is not clarified nor is the mechanism of information storage and coding. With the present research we want to study the role of noise, especially focusing on the frequency peaks in a three variable Hindmarsh−Rose Small−World network. We investigated the behaviour of the network to external noises. We demonstrate that a variation of signal to noise ratio of about 10 dB induces an increase in membrane potential signal of about 15%, averaged over the whole network. We also considered the integral of the whole membrane potential as a paradigm of internal noise, the one generated by the brain network. We showed that this internal noise is attenuated with the size of the network or with the number of random connections. By means of Fourier analysis we found that it has distinct peaks of frequencies, moreover, we showed that increasing the size of the network introducing more neurons, reduced the maximum frequencies generated by the network, whereas the increase in the number of random connections (determined by the small-world probability p) led to a trend toward higher frequencies. This study may give clues on how networks utilize noise to alter the collective behaviour of the system in their operations.

Keywords: neural networks, stochastic processes, small-world networks, discrete Fourier analysis

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Authors: Iman Shabanzadeh

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Over the last three decades, the main demands of the Iranian workforce have been focused on three areas: "The right to a decent wage", "The right to organize" and "The right to job security". In order to investigate and analyze this situation, the present study focuses on the component of job security. The purpose of the study is to figure out what mechanisms in Iran's Labor Law have led to the destabilization and undermining of workers' job security. The research method is descriptive-analytical. To collect information, library and document sources in the field of laws related to labor rights in Iran and, semi-structured interviews with experts have been used. In the data analysis stage, the qualitative content analysis method was also used. The trend analysis of the statistics related to the labor force situation in Iran in the last three decades shows that the employment structure has been facing an increase in the active population, but in the last decade, a large part of this population has been mainly active in the service sector, and contract-free enterprises, so a smaller share of this employment has insurance coverage and a larger share has underemployment. In this regard, the results of this study show that four contexts have been proposed as the main legal and executive mechanisms of labor instability in Iran, which are: 1) temporaryization of the labor force by providing different interpretations of labor law, 2) adjustment labor in the public sector and the emergence of manpower contracting companies, 3) the cessation of labor law protection of workers in small workshops and 4) the existence of numerous restrictions on the effective organization of workers. The theoretical conclusion of this article is that the main root of the challenges of the labor society and the destabilized workforce in Iran is the existence of structural inequalities in the field of labor security, whose traces can be seen in the legal provisions and executive regulations of this field.

Keywords: inequality, precariat, temporaryization, labor force, labor law

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Authors: Cherrie Lowe

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The TrendCare Patient Dependency System is currently utilized by a large number of Maternity Services across Australia, New Zealand and Singapore. In 2012, 2013, and 2014 validation studies were initiated in all three countries to validate the acuity tools used for Women in Labour, and Postnatal Mothers and Babies. This paper will present the findings of the validation study. Aim: The aim of this study was to; Identify if the care hours provided by the TrendCare Acuity System was an accurate reflection of the care required by Women and Babies. Obtain evidence of changes required to acuity indicators and/or category timings to ensure the TrendCare acuity system remains reliable and valid across a range of Maternity care models in three countries. Method: A non-experimental action research methodology was used across four District Health Boards in New Zealand, two large public Australian Maternity services and a large tertiary Maternity service in Singapore. Standardized data collection forms and timing devices were used to collect Midwife contact times with Women and Babies included in the study. Rejection processes excluded samples where care was not completed/rationed. The variances between actual timed Midwife/Mother/Baby contact and actual Trend Care acuity times were identified and investigated. Results: 87.5% (18) of TrendCare acuity category timings matched the actual timings recorded for Midwifery care. 12.5% (3) of TrendCare night duty categories provided less minutes of care than the actual timings. 100% of Labour Ward TrendCare categories matched actual timings for Midwifery care. The actual times given for assistance to New Zealand independent Midwives in Labour Ward showed a significant deviation to previous studies demonstrating the need for additional time allocations in Trend Care. Conclusion: The results demonstrated the importance of regularly validating the Trend Care category timings with the care hours required, as variances to models of care and length of stay in Maternity units have increased Midwifery workloads on the night shift. The level of assistance provided by the core labour ward staff to the Independent Midwife has increased substantially. Outcomes: As a consequence of this study changes were made to the night duty TrendCare Maternity categories, additional acuity indicators developed and times for assisting independent Midwives increased. The updated TrendCare version was delivered to Maternity services in 2014.

Keywords: maternity, acuity, research, nursing workloads

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Authors: Romeu Bonk Mesquita

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Argentina is the South American number 1 country of destiny to intraregional migration flows. This research aims to shed light on the main trends of the Argentine immigrant policy from 2016 on, when Mauricio Marci was elected President, taking the approval of the current and fairly protective of human rights Ley de Migraciones (2003) as an analytical starting point. Foreign Policy Analysis (FPA) serves as the theoretical background, highlighting decision-making processes and institutional designs that encourage or constraint political and social actors. The analysis goes through domestic and international levels, observing how immigration policy is formulated as a public policy and is simultaneously connected to Mercosur and other international organizations, such as the International Organization for Migration (IOM) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Thus, the study revolves around the Direccion Nacional de Migraciones, which is the state agency in charge of executing the country’s immigrant policy, as to comprehend how its internal processes and the connections it has with both domestic and international institutions shape Argentina’s immigrant policy formulation and execution. Also, it aims to locate the migration agenda within the country’s contemporary social and political context. The methodology is qualitative, case-based and oriented by process-tracing techniques. Empirical evidence gathered includes official documents and data, media coverage and interviews to key-informants. Recent events, such as the Decreto de Necesidad y Urgencia 70/2017 issued by President Macri, and the return of discursive association between migration and criminality, indicate a trend of nationalization and securitization of the immigration policy in contemporary Argentina.

Keywords: Argentine foreign policy, human rights, immigrant policy, Mercosur

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Authors: Jonathan Martino, Kristof Harri

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In some cases, the increase in computing resources makes simulation methods more affordable. The increase in processing speed also allows real time analysis or even more rapid tests analysis offering a real tool for test prediction and design process optimization. Vibration tests are no exception to this trend. The so called ‘Virtual Vibration Testing’ offers solution among others to study the influence of specific loads, to better anticipate the boundary conditions between the exciter and the structure under test, to study the influence of small changes in the structure under test, etc. This article will first present a virtual vibration test modeling with a main focus on the shaker model and will afterwards present the experimental parameters determination. The classical way of modeling a shaker is to consider the shaker as a simple mechanical structure augmented by an electrical circuit that makes the shaker move. The shaker is modeled as a two or three degrees of freedom lumped parameters model while the electrical circuit takes the coil impedance and the dynamic back-electromagnetic force into account. The establishment of the equations of this model, describing the dynamics of the shaker, is presented in this article and is strongly related to the internal physical quantities of the shaker. Those quantities will be reduced into global parameters which will be estimated through experiments. Different experiments will be carried out in order to design an easy and practical method for the identification of the shaker parameters leading to a fully functional shaker model. An experimental modal analysis will also be carried out to extract the modal parameters of the shaker and to combine them with the electrical measurements. Finally, this article will conclude with an experimental validation of the model.

Keywords: lumped parameters model, shaker modeling, shaker parameters, state-space, virtual vibration

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Authors: Jiahua Zhang, Qing Chang, Fengmei Yao

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Studying on the response of vegetation phenology to climate change at different temporal and spatial scales is important for understanding and predicting future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics andthe adaptation of ecosystems to global change. In this study, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) dataset and climate data were used to analyze the dynamics of grassland phenology as well as their correlation with climatic factors in different eco-geographic regions and elevation units across the Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that during 2003–2012, the start of the grassland greening season (SOS) appeared later while the end of the growing season (EOS) appeared earlier following the plateau’s precipitation and heat gradients from southeast to northwest. The multi-year mean value of SOS showed differences between various eco-geographic regions and was significantly impacted by average elevation and regional average precipitation during spring. Regional mean differences for EOS were mainly regulated by mean temperature during autumn. Changes in trends of SOS in the central and eastern eco-geographic regions were coupled to the mean temperature during spring, advancing by about 7d/°C. However, in the two southwestern eco-geographic regions, SOS was delayed significantly due to the impact of spring precipitation. The results also showed that the SOS occurred later with increasing elevation, as expected, with a delay rate of 0.66 d/100m. For 2003–2012, SOS showed an advancing trend in low-elevation areas, but a delayed trend in high-elevation areas, while EOS was delayed in low-elevation areas, but advanced in high-elevation areas. Grassland SOS and EOS changes may be influenced by a variety of other environmental factors in each eco-geographic region.

Keywords: grassland, phenology, MODIS, eco-geographic regions, elevation, climatic factors, Tibetan Plateau

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Authors: E. Chávez-Vargas, M. de la L. Olvera-Amador, A. Jimenez-Gonzalez, A. Maldonado

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Undoped and fluorine doped zinc oxide (ZnO) thin films were deposited on sodocalcic glass substrates by the ultrasonic chemical spray technique. As the main goal is the manufacturing of transparent electrodes, the effects of both the solution composition and the substrate temperature on both the electrical and optical properties of ZnO thin films were studied. As a matter of fact, the effect of fluorine concentration ([F]/[F+Zn] at. %), solvent composition (acetic acid, water, methanol ratios) and ageing time, regarding solution composition, were varied. In addition, the substrate temperature and the deposition time, regarding the chemical spray technique, were also varied. Structural studies confirm the deposition of polycrystalline, hexagonal, wurtzite type, ZnO. The results show that the increase of ([F]/[F+Zn] at. %) ratio in the solution, decreases the sheet resistance, RS, of the ZnO:F films, reaching a minimum, in the order of 1.6 Ωcm, at 60 at. %; further increase in the ([F]/[F+Zn]) ratio increases the RS of the films. The same trend occurs with the variation in substrate temperature, as a minimum RS of ZnO:F thin films was encountered when deposited at TS= 450 °C. ZnO:F thin films deposited with aged solution show a significant decrease in the RS in the order of 100 ΩS. The transmittance of the films was also favorable affected by the solvent ratio and, more significantly, by the ageing of the solution. The whole evaluation of optical and electrical characteristics of the ZnO:F thin films deposited under different conditions, was done under Haacke’s figure of Merit in order to have a clear and quantitative trend as transparent conductors application.

Keywords: zinc oxide, ZnO:F, TCO, Haacke’s figure of Merit

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Authors: Martin Cai, Khadijah B. Hashim, Leng Leo, Edmund F. Tian

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Analysis of traditional Chinese medicinal (TCM) supplements has always been a laborious task, particularly in the case of multi‐ingredient formulations. Traditionally, herbal extracts are analysed using one or few markers compounds. In the recent years, however, pharmaceutical companies are introducing health supplements of TCM active ingredients to cater to the needs of consumers in the fast-paced society in this age. As such, new problems arise in the aspects of composition identification as well as quality analysis. In most cases of products or supplements formulated with multiple TCM herbs, the chemical composition, and nature of each raw material differs greatly from the others in the formulation. This results in a requirement for individual analytical processes in order to identify the marker compounds in the various botanicals. Thin-layer Chromatography (TLC) is a simple, cost effective, yet well-regarded method for the analysis of natural products, both as a Pharmacopeia-approved method for identification and authentication of herbs, and a great analytical tool for the discovery of chemical compositions in herbal extracts. Recent technical advances introduced High-Performance TLC (HPTLC) where, with the help of automated equipment and improvements on the chromatographic materials, both the quality and reproducibility are greatly improved, allowing for highly standardised analysis with greater details. Here we report an industrial consultancy project with ONI Global Pte Ltd for the analysis of LAC Liver Protector, a TCM formulation aimed at improving liver health. The aim of this study was to identify 4 key components of the supplement using HPTLC, following protocols derived from Chinese Pharmacopeia standards. By comparing the TLC profiles of the supplement to the extracts of the herbs reported in the label, this project proposes a simple and cost-effective analysis of the presence of the 4 marker compounds in the multi‐ingredient formulation by using 4 different HPTLC methods. With the increasing trend of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) bringing natural products and health supplements into the market, it is crucial that the qualities of both raw materials and end products be well-assured for the protection of consumers. With the technology of HPTLC, science can be incorporated to help SMEs with their quality control, thereby ensuring product quality.

Keywords: traditional Chinese medicine supplement, high performance thin layer chromatography, active ingredients, product quality

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Authors: Mohamed Abbas, Ramesh Singh

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This study investigates the hydrothermal aging behavior of undoped and copper oxide-doped alumina-toughened zirconia (ATZ). The ATZ ceramic composites underwent conventional sintering at temperatures ranging from 1250 to 1500°C with a holding time of 12 minutes. XRD analysis revealed a stable 100% tetragonal phase for conventionally sintered ATZ samples up to 1450°C, even after 100 hours of exposure. At 1500℃, XRD patterns of both undoped and doped ATZ samples showed no phase transformation after up to 3 hours of exposure to superheated steam. Extended exposure, however, resulted in phase transformation beyond 10 hours. CuO-doped ATZ samples initially exhibited lower monoclinic content, gradually increasing with aging. Undoped ATZ demonstrated better-aging resistance, maintaining ~40% monoclinic content after 100 hours. FESEM images post-aging revealed surface roughness changes due to the tetragonal-to-monoclinic phase transformation, with limited nucleation in the largest tetragonal grains. Fracture analysis exhibited macrocracks and microcracks on the transformed surface layer after aging. This study found that 0.2wt% CuO doping did not prevent the low-temperature degradation (LTD) phenomenon at elevated temperatures. Transformation zone depth (TZD) calculations supported the trend observed in the transformed monoclinic phase.

Keywords: alumina toughened zirconia, conventional sintering, copper oxide, hydrothermal ageing

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