Search results for: ISO/IEC 20000-1:2011

Authors: T. Mokhele, O. Mutanga, F. Ahmed

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South Africa is one of the few countries that have stopped using the same Enumeration Areas (EAs) for census enumeration and dissemination. The advantage of this change is that confidentiality issue could be addressed for census dissemination as the design of geographic unit for collection is mainly to ensure that this unit is covered by one enumerator. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the performance of automated zone design output areas against non-zone design developed geographies using the 2001 census data, and 2011 census to some extent, as the main input. The comparison of the Automated Zone-design Tool (AZTool) census output areas with the Small Area Layers (SALs) and SubPlaces based on confidentiality limit, population distribution, and degree of homogeneity, as well as shape compactness, was undertaken. Further, SPSS was employed for validation of the AZTool output results. The results showed that AZTool developed output areas out-perform the existing official SAL and SubPlaces with regard to minimum population threshold, population distribution and to some extent to homogeneity. Therefore, it was concluded that AZTool program provides a new alternative to the creation of optimised census output areas for dissemination of population census data in South Africa.

Keywords: AZTool, enumeration areas, small areal layers, South Africa

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Authors: N. V. Nikhil, S. R. Lee, Do Won Park

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Korean peninsula receives about two third of the annual rainfall during summer season. The extreme rainfall pattern due to typhoon and heavy rainfall results in severe mountain disasters among which 55% of them are debris flows, a major natural hazard especially when occurring around major settlement areas. The basic mechanism underlined for this kind of failure is the unsaturated shallow slope failure by reduction of matric suction due to infiltration of water and liquefaction of the failed mass due to generation of positive pore water pressure leading to abrupt loss of strength and commencement of flow. However only an empirical model cannot simulate this complex mechanism. Hence, we have employed an empirical-physical based approach for hazard analysis of debris flow using TRIGRS, a debris flow initiation criteria and DAN3D in mountain Woonmyun, South Korea. Debris flow initiation criteria is required to discern the potential landslides which can transform into debris flow. DAN-3D, being a new model, does not have the calibrated values of rheology parameters for Korean conditions. Thus, in our analysis we have used the recent 2011 debris flow event in mountain Woonmyun san for calibration of both TRIGRS model and DAN-3D, thereafter identifying and predicting the debris flow initiation points, path, run out velocity, and area of spreading for future extreme rainfall based scenarios.

Keywords: debris flow, DAN-3D, extreme rainfall, hazard analysis

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Authors: Christian Klettner, Ian Eames, Tristan Robinson

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Tsunami is characterised by their very long time periods and can have devastating consequences when these inundate through built-up coastal regions as in the 2004 Indian Ocean and 2011 Tohoku Tsunami. This work aims to investigate the effect of these long waves on the flow through and around a group of buildings, which are abstracted to circular cylinders. The research approach used in this study was using experiments and numerical simulations. Large-scale experiments were carried out at HR Wallingford. The novelty of these experiments is (I) the number of bodies present (up to 64), (II) the long wavelength of the input waves (80 seconds) and (III) the width of the tank (4m) which gives the unique opportunity to investigate three length scales, namely the diameter of the building, the diameter of the array and the width of the tank. To complement the experiments, dam break flow past the same arrays is investigated using three-dimensional numerical simulations in OpenFOAM. Dam break flow was chosen as it is often used as a surrogate for the tsunami in previous research and is used here as there are well defined initial conditions and high quality previous experimental data for the case of a single cylinder is available. The focus of this work is to better understand the effect of the solid void fraction on the force and flow through and around the array. New qualitative and quantitative diagnostics are developed and tested to analyse the complex coupled interaction between the cylinders.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, tsunami, forces, complex geometry

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Authors: Hsiao-Wen Tsai

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Motor vehicle accident is the first cause of head injury in the world; severe head injury cases may cause conscious disturbance and death. This is a report about a case of a young adult patient suffering from motor vehicle accident leading to severe head injury who passed through three time surgical procedures, and his mother (who is the informal caregiver). This case was followed from 28th January to 15th February 2011 by using Gordon’s 11 functional health patterns. Patient’s cognitive-perceptual and self-perception-self-concept patterns were altered. Anxiety was also noted on his informal caregiver due to patients’ condition. During the intensive care period, maintaining patient’s vital signs and cerebral perfusion pressure were essential to avoid secondary neuronal injury. Multi-sensory stimulation, caring accompanying, supporting, listening and encouraging patient’s family involved in patient care were very important to reduce informal caregiver anxiety. Finally, the patient consciousness improved from GCS 4 to GCS 11 before discharging from ICU. Patient’s primary informal caregiver, his mother, also showed anxiety improvement. This is was successful case with traumatic brain injury recovered from coma.

Keywords: anxiety, multi-sensory stimulation, reduce intracranial adaptive capacity, traumatic brain injury

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Authors: Ramona Zharfpeykan, Paul Rouse

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Organizational sustainability is important to both organizations themselves and their stakeholders. Despite its increasing popularity and increasing numbers of organizations reporting sustainability, research on evaluating and comparing the sustainability performance of companies is limited. The aim of this study was to develop models to measure sustainability performance for both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons across companies in the same or different industries. A secondary aim was to see if sustainability reports can be used to evaluate sustainability performance. The study used both a content analysis of Australian sustainability reports in mining and metals and financial services for 2011-2014 and a survey of Australian and New Zealand organizations. Two methods ranging from a composite index using uniform weights to data envelopment analysis (DEA) were employed to analyze the data and develop the models. The results show strong statistically significant relationships between the developed models, which suggests that each model provides a consistent, systematic and reasonably robust analysis. The results of the models show that for both industries, companies that had sustainability scores above or below the industry average stayed almost the same during the study period. These indices and models can be used by companies to evaluate their sustainability performance and compare it with previous years, or with other companies in the same or different industries. These methods can also be used by various stakeholders and sustainability ranking companies such as the Global Reporting Initiative (GRI).

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, sustainability, sustainability performance measurement system, sustainability performance index, global reporting initiative

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Authors: Ghzlan Mahmoud Abdel Aziz

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This case study aims to identify the intrastate conflicts between the nation state and armed groups. Nowadays, most wars weaken states against armed groups. Thus, it is very important to negotiate with such groups in order to reinforce the law for the protection of victims. These armed groups are the cause of conflicts and they are related with many of humanitarian issues that result out of conflicts. In this age of rivalry; terrorists, insurgents, or transnational criminal parties have surfaced to the top as a reaction to these armed groups in an effort to set up a new world order. Moreover, the intra state conflicts became increasingly treacherous than the interstate conflicts, particularly when nation state systems deal with armed groups which try to influence the state. The unexpected upraising of the Arab Spring during 2011 in parts of the Middle East and North Africa formed various patterns of conflicts. The events of the Arab Spring resulted in current and long term change across the region. Significant modifications in the level, strength and period of armed conflict around the world have been made. Egypt was in the center of these events. It has fought back the armed groups under the name of terrorism and spread common disorder and violence among civilians. On this note, this study focuses on the problem of the transformation in the methods of organized violence within one state rather than between two state or more and analyzes the objectives, strategies, and internal composition of armed groups and the environments that foster them, with a focus on the Egyptian case.

Keywords: armed groups, conflicts, Egyptian armed forces, intrastate conflicts

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Authors: Y. Kamarulzaman, A. Madun, F. D. Yusop, N. Abdullah, N. K. Hoong

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In 2011, the Malaysian Government has initiated a nationwide project called 1BestariNet which will adopt the using of technology in teaching and learning, resulting in the construction of telecommunication towers inside the public schools’ premise. Using qualitative approach, this study investigated public perception of risks associated with the project, particularly the telecommunication towers. Data collection involved observation and in-depth interviews with 22 individuals consist of a segment of public that was anxious about the risks of radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF) which include two employees of telecommunication companies (telcos) and five employees of Government agencies. Observation of the location of the towers at 10 public schools, a public forum, and media reports provide valuable information in our analysis. The study finds that the main concern is related to the health risks. This study also shows that it is not easy for the Government to manage public perception mainly because it involves public trust. We find that risk perception is related with public trust, as well as the perceived benefits and level of knowledge. Efficient communication and continuous engagement with the local communities help to build and maintain public trust, reduce public fear and anxiety, hence mitigating the risk perception among the public.

Keywords: risk perception, risk communication, trust, telecommunication tower, radio frequency electromagnetic field (RFEMF)

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Authors: Joel Rookwood

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Sports mega events have become increasingly significant in sporting, political and economic terms, with analysis often focusing on issues including resource expenditure, development, legacy and sustainability. Transnational tournaments can inspire interest from a variety of demographics, and the operational management of such events can involve contributions from a range of personnel. In addition to television audiences events also attract attending spectators, and in football contexts the temporary migration of fans from potentially rival nations and teams can present event organising committees and security personnel with various challenges in relation to crowd management. The behaviour, interaction and control of supporters has previously led to incidents of disorder and hooliganism, with damage to property as well as injuries and deaths proving significant consequences. The Heysel tragedy at the 1985 European Cup final in Brussels is a notable example, where 39 fans died following crowd disorder and mismanagement. Football disasters and disorder, particularly in the context of international competition, have inspired responses from police, law makers, event organisers, clubs and associations, including stadium improvements, legislative developments and crowd management practice to improve the effectiveness of spectator safety. The growth and internationalisation of fandom and developments in event management and tourism have seen various responses to the evolving challenges associated with hosting large numbers of visiting spectators at mega events. In football contexts ‘fan parks’ are a notable example. Since the first widespread introduction in European football competitions at the 2006 World Cup finals in Germany, these facilities have become a staple element of such mega events. This qualitative, longitudinal, multi-continent research draws on extensive semi-structured interview and observation data. As a frame of reference, this work considers football events staged before and after the development of fan parks. Research was undertaken at four World Cup finals (Japan 2002, Germany 2006, South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014), four European Championships (Portugal 2004, Switzerland/Austria 2008, Poland/Ukraine 2012 and France 2016), four other confederation tournaments (Ghana 2008, Qatar 2011, USA 2011 and Chile 2015), and four European club finals (Istanbul 2005, Athens 2007, Rome 2009 and Basle 2016). This work found that these parks are typically temporarily erected, specifically located zones where supporters congregate together irrespective of allegiances to watch matches on large screens, and partake in other forms of organised on-site entertainment. Such facilities can also allow organisers to control the behaviour, confine the movement and monitor the alcohol consumption of supporters. This represents a notable shift in policy from previous football tournaments, when the widely assumed causal link between alcohol and hooliganism which frequently shaped legislative and police responses to disorder, also dissuaded some authorities from permitting fans to consume alcohol in and around stadia. It also reflects changing attitudes towards modern football fans. The work also found that in certain contexts supporters have increasingly engaged with such provision which impacts fan behaviour, but that this is relative to factors including location, facilities, management and security.

Keywords: event, facility, fan, management, park

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Authors: Maya Safira Dewi

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Indonesia is one in the top ten countries most funds flowing into Tax Haven. Illegal funds flowing out of Indonesia reached USD 10.9 billion per year. While the total to 2010 of the Indonesian financial assets are in tax havens from Indonesia amounted to USD 331 billion (Kar and Freitas, 2012). Singapore, Netherlands, Virgin Island, Mauritius and Cayman Island are the highest countries that became the location of companies affiliated with the company listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The 469 companies listed on the stock exchange there are 128 companies (27.29%) with overseas entities, listed total overseas affiliated companies amounted to 417 firms in 2012 and 415 companies in 2011. The most of the branches or the parent company are located in Singapore, Netherlands, Virgin Island, Mauritius and Cayman Island. Judging from the existing tax provisions in these countries, have corporate tax rates that is lower than Indonesia. Tax avoidance to tax haven countries can be made by using some Strategies. They are transfer pricing, shopping treaty, thin capitalization and the controlled foreign company. Singapore, Netherlands, Virgin Island, Mauritius and Cayman Island are tax haven countries which become a tax heaven for Indonesian tax payer. It can be concluded that tax havens are a serious problem for Indonesia, and the need for a more assertive policy establishment and more detail about tax havens.

Keywords: tax avoidance, tax haven, transfer pricing, tax rate, tax payer

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Authors: Laila Ozola, Evita Straumite

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Celiac disease is a permanent enteropathy caused by the ingestion of gluten, a protein occurring in wheat, rye and barley. The only way of the effective daily treatment is a strict gluten-free diet. From the investigation of products available in the local market, it was found that Latvian producers do not offer gluten-free products. The aim of this research was to study and analyze changes of celiac patient’s attitude to gluten-free product quality and availability in the Latvian market and purchasing habits. The survey was designed using website www.visidati.lv, and a questionnaire was sent to people suffering from celiac disease. The first time the respondents were asked to fill in the questionnaire in 2011, but now repeatedly from the beginning of September 2013 till the end of January 2014. The questionnaire was performed with 75 celiac patients, respondents were from all Latvian regions and they answered 16 questions. One of the most important questions was aimed to find out consumers’ opinion about quality of gluten-free products, consumption patterns of gluten-free products, and, moreover, their interest in products made in Latvia. Respondents were asked to name gluten-free products they mainly buy and give specific purchase locations, evaluate the quality of products and necessity for products produced in Latvia. The results of questionnaire show that the consumers are satisfied with the quality of gluten-free flour, flour blends, sweets and pasta, but are not satisfied with the quality of bread and confectionery available in the Latvian markets.

Keywords: consumers, gluten-free products, quality, survey

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Authors: Yelda Yenel, Orkut Acele

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This research aims to examine the role of celebrities in the securitization and desecuritization of Syrian migrants in Türkiye on social media platforms. Traditionally, the securitization process has been driven by political actors and mainstream media. However, with the rise of social media, celebrities have emerged as influential actors, contributing to these processes. The topic of Syrian migrants, particularly those arriving in Türkiye after 2011, has sparked national debates, framing them both as a security threat and as a humanitarian issue, thereby dividing public opinion.The primary objective of this study is to analyze celebrities’ discourses about migrants on social media and to explore how these narratives contribute to the processes of securitization (presenting migrants as a threat) and desecuritization (framing migrants within a humanitarian context). This research will focus on social media platforms such as Twitter and Instagram, examining celebrities' posts and analyzing the narratives produced through content and discourse analysis techniques.By investigating how celebrities frame the migrant issue and how these frames resonate with the public, this study seeks to explore the impact of celebrity discourse on the securitization and desecuritization processes. Additionally, it will examine the influence of celebrities on social media users, offering a new perspective on how securitization theory is shaped by the role of celebrities in the digital age.

Keywords: securitization, desecuritization, celebrities, Syrian migrants, social media discourse

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Authors: Rufat Nuriyev

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Located in the eastern part of the Republic of Azerbaijan and on the western shore of the Caspian Sea, Gobustan National Reserve was inscribed as Gobustan Rock Art Cultural Landscape into the World Heritage List in 2007. Gobustan is an outstanding rock art landscape, where over 6000 rock engravings were found and registered, since the end of Upper Paleolithic up to the Middle Ages. Being a rock art center, the Gobustan seeks to stimulate public awareness and disseminate knowledge of prehistoric art to enrich educational, cultural and artistic communities regionally, nationally and internationally. Due to the Decree of the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the “Action Plan” , planned actions started to realize. Some of them implemented before of stipulated date. For the attraction of visitors and improvement of service quality in the museum-reserve, various activities are organized. The building of a new museum center at the foot of the Beyukdash Mountain has been completed in 2011. Main aims of the new museum building and exhibition was to provide better understanding of the importance of this monument for local community, Azerbaijanian culture and the world. In the Petroglyph Museum at Gobustan, digital and traditional media are closely integrated to reveal the complexity of historical, cultural and artistic meaning of prehistoric rock carvings of Gobustan. Alongside with electronic devices, the visitor gets opportunity of direct contact with artifacts and ancient rock carvings.

Keywords: Azerbaijan, Gobustan, rock art, museum

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Authors: Chang Li-Yu

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Purposes: The present research focuses on exploring the latent growth model of psychological capital in disadvantaged adolescents and assessing its relationship with subjective well-being. Methods: Longitudinal study design was utilized and the data was from Taiwan Database of Children and Youth in Poverty (TDCYP), using the student questionnaires from 2009, 2011, and 2013. Data analysis was conducted using both univariate and multivariate latent growth curve models. Results: This study finds that: (1) The initial state and growth rate of individual factors such as parent-child relationships, psychological capital, and subjective wellbeing in economically disadvantaged adolescents have a predictive impact; (2) There are positive interactive effects in the development among factors like parentchild relationships, psychological capital, and subjective well-being in economically disadvantaged adolescents; and (3) The initial state and growth rate of parent-child relationships and psychological capital in economically disadvantaged adolescents positively affect the initial state and growth rate of their subjective well-being. Recommendations: Based on these findings, this study concretely discusses the significance of psychological capital and family cohesion for the mental health of economically disadvantaged youth and offers suggestions for counseling, psychological therapy, and future research.

Keywords: economically disadvantaged adolescents, psychological capital, parent-child relationships, subjective well-beings

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Authors: Narjes Azimi

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It has been a while that narrative and storytelling turned to be the inevitable part of media. The narrative has so many aspects and among those entire aspects, the fantasy genre is consciously challenging one as fantasy readers are used to reading narratives like good versus evil plot. This paper will analyze the ASOIF TV series as a Meta narrative cultural production that deconstructs the elements of a traditional narrative. This study will shade on a grand narrative perspective from poststructuralism point of view. The theoretical framework is structuralism and post structuralism. Lyotard and Barthes are two main poststructuralists and focus of the study. Lyotard grand narrative elements will analyze in this research study. Fantasy genre generated a number of outstanding authors that explore innovative perspectives. Among all these leading authors George R.R Martin is one of the best. George R. R. Martin’s Fantasy a Song of Ice and Fire picturized the brutal world that seven kingdoms struggling for the power. Since 2011 this production has been followed and watched by millions of audiences all around the world. The methodology is the textual analysis of selected scenes. Martin’s distinctive fantasy style which makes it different from other fantasies, yet this shift does not negate how the previous fantasy writers represent the mentioned concepts of war, and etc., but Martin’ fantasy and left the mature audiences full of uncertainty.

Keywords: narrative theory, metanarrative, deconstruction, post-structuralism, Lyotard, Barthes

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

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Authors: Shahid Iqbal, Haroon Z. Khan, Muhammad Arif

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A sustainable agricultural system involving the improvement in soil properties and crop performance cannot be developed without organic fertilizer use. The effects of poultry manure compost (PMC) and pressmud compost (PrMC) at different levels on improving the soil properties and maize performance has not been yet described by any study comprehensively. Thus, field experiments (2011 and 2012) were conducted at Agronomy Research Area, University of Agriculture Faisalabad (31°26'5" N and 73°4'6" E) in sandy loam soil to determine the improvement in soil properties and maize performance due to application of PMC and PrMC each at five different levels (2, 4, 6, 8 and 10 t ha-1). A control (unamended) treatment was also included for comparison. The results indicated that performance of PMC levels was superior to PrMC levels. Increasing both composts levels improved soil properties, maize growth, and stover yield. Results showed that during both years’ highest rates of PMC i.e. 10 and 8 t ha-1 improved the soil properties: ECe, pH, inorganic N, OM, and WHC higher than other treatments. While, 10 and 8 t PMC ha-1 also significantly increased leaf area index (LAI), crop growth rate (CGR) and net assimilation rate (NAR), and stover yield. Similarly, 10 and 8 t PMC ha-1 also improved the grain protein content, but contrarily, grain oil was lowest for 10 and 8 t ha-1 PMC during both years. Moreover, in both years highest gross and net income, and benefit cost ratio was also achieved by 10 and 8 t ha-1 PMC. It is concluded that PMC at rate of 10 and 8 t ha-1 sustainably improved soil properties and maize performance.

Keywords: compost, soil, maize, growth, yield

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Authors: Himayatullah Khan, Alena Fedorova

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The present paper analyses the income-consumption relationships in Pakistan using annual time series data from 1980-81 to 2010-1. The paper uses the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test to check the unit root and stationarity in these two time series. The paper finds that the two time series are nonstationary but stationary at their first difference levels. The Augmented Engle-Granger test and the Cointegrating Regression Durbin-Watson test imply that the two time series of consumption and income are cointegrated and that long-run marginal propensity to consume is 0.88 which is given by the estimated (static) equilibrium relation. The paper also used the error correction mechanism to find out to model dynamic relationship. The purpose of the ECM is to indicate the speed of adjustment from the short-run equilibrium to the long-run equilibrium state. The results show that MPC is equal to 0.93 and is highly significant. The coefficient of Engle-Granger residuals is negative but insignificant. Statistically, the equilibrium error term is zero, which suggests that consumption adjusts to changes in GDP in the same period. The short-run changes in GDP have a positive impact on short-run changes in consumption. The paper concludes that we may interpret 0.93 as the short-run MPC. The pair-wise Granger Causality test shows that both GDP and consumption Granger cause each other.

Keywords: cointegrating regression, Augmented Dickey Fuller test, Augmented Engle-Granger test, Granger causality, error correction mechanism

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Authors: Jana Gebhartova, Tomas Duda, Ivan Benes

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World is characterized by constantly emerging new links, increasing complexity and speed of processes in the society. The globalized world needs (except political and financial mechanisms and institutions) functional supply chains. Transport and supply chains can be interrupted in case of natural disasters, conflicts and civil disorders, sudden demand shocks, export/import restrictions, terrorism. Long-term interruption of crucial services for human existence can results in breakdown of the whole society. If global supply chains can be interrupted, the ability to survive a crisis situation depends on local self-sufficiency, it means ensuring water, food and energy. In the world of 21st century, new way of thinking (based on the concept of resilience) is needed. Planning for self-sufficiency and resilience must be part of the agenda of local governments. The paper presents first results of research project VF20112015518 “Security of population – crisis management” that deals with issue of critical infrastructure, ensuring regional self-sufficiency in crisis situations and issues related to population protection and water, energy and food security. The project is being solved within Security Research of Ministry of the Interior of the Czech Republic in 2011-2015.

Keywords: crisis management, resilience, indicators of self-sufficiency, continuity of supplies

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Authors: Cyprian M. Mostert

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This paper investigates the effectiveness of tobacco control policy (TCP) in averting cancer mortalities in both educated and uneducated segments of the South African population. A two-stage least squares model (2SLS) was used covering the period 2009-2013. The results show that the TCP caused a 26 percent average decrease in cancer mortalities in both educated and uneducated segment of the population. However, limiting the sales of cheap and illegal tobacco cigarettes is necessary for advancing the effectiveness of TCP in averting cancer mortalities in the uneducated population — as the paper noted an insignificant decrease in cancer mortalities in 2012-2013 due to the presence of cheaper cigarettes. The paper also discovered evidence of persisting tobacco purchases of branded cigarettes in the educated population group which limited the effectiveness of TCP in 2009-2011. Hikes in real tobacco tax to a 0.8 USD price level in 2012 limited tobacco consumption in the educated group resulting in a 29 percent decrease in cancer mortalities. Other developing countries may learn from the South African case and strive to limit the sales of cheap illegal cigarettes while hiking real tobacco tax of branded cigarettes as a key strategy to improve cancer deaths across educated and uneducated population groups.

Keywords: cancer, health policy, health system, tobacco tax

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Authors: Mohammad Namazi, Mohammad Sadeghzadeh Maharluie

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Predicting earnings management is vital for the capital market participants, financial analysts and managers. The aim of this research is attempting to respond to this query: Is there a significant difference between the regression model and neural networks’ models in predicting earnings management, and which one leads to a superior prediction of it? In approaching this question, a Linear Regression (LR) model was compared with two neural networks including Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN). The population of this study includes 94 listed companies in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market from 2003 to 2011. After the results of all models were acquired, ANOVA was exerted to test the hypotheses. In general, the summary of statistical results showed that the precision of GRNN did not exhibit a significant difference in comparison with MLP. In addition, the mean square error of the MLP and GRNN showed a significant difference with the multi variable LR model. These findings support the notion of nonlinear behavior of the earnings management. Therefore, it is more appropriate for capital market participants to analyze earnings management based upon neural networks techniques, and not to adopt linear regression models.

Keywords: earnings management, generalized linear regression, neural networks multi-layer perceptron, Tehran stock exchange

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Authors: Benjamas Penboon, Zachary Zimmer, Aree Jampaklay

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Cambodia is a country where labor migration has been consistently high. Coupled with advancing labor opportunities in urban areas, a function partly of globalization, this is resulting in massive migration out of rural areas. This is particularly true in Cambodia where there are high migration and a very large proportion of adult children living some distant from their parents. This paper explores characteristics associated with migrant providing support to parents in rural Cambodia. With reference to perspectives of family altruism and solidarity, this analysis particularly focusses on how a series of variables representing family integration and residential location associates with intergenerational monetary and instrumental support from migrants. The study hypothesizes that migrants are more likely to provide support when parents are in need, and there are no alternative means of support. Data come from The Rural Household Survey (N=3,713), part of the 2011 Cambodian Rural Urban Migration Project (CRUMP). Multilevel multinomial models indicate international migrants are likely to give money, while internal migrants are likely to provide both money and instrumental support, especially when migrants have no sibling and their parent in poor health status. In addition, employed migrants are two times providing monetary compared to those unemployed. Findings elucidate the decision to which and why support occurs more often when no other source of support exists and also depends on the ability to provide of migrants themselves.

Keywords: migration, left-behind parent, intergenerational relations, support, rural, Cambodia

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Authors: Manoj Deepak, N. Mathivanan, K. Venkatachalam

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Nerve root stenosis is one of the main cause for back pain. There are many methods both conservative and surgical to treat this disease. It is pertinent to decompress the spine to a proper extent so as to avoid the recurrence of symptoms. But too much of an aggressive approach also has its disadvantages. We present one of the methods to effectively decompress the nerve with better results. Our study was carried out in 52 patients with foramina stenosis between 2008 to 2011.We carried out the surgical procedure of shaving off the medial part of the facet joint so as to decompress the root. We selected those patients who had symptoms of claudication for more than 2 years. They had no signs of instability and they underwent conservative treatment for a period of 2 months before the procedure. Oswersty scoring was used to record the functional level of the patient before and after the procedure. All patients were followed up for a period of minimum 2.5 years. After evaluation for a minimum of 2.5 years, 34 patients had no evidence of recurrence of symptoms with improvement in the functional level.7 patients complained of minimal pain but their functional quality had improved postop. Six patients had symptoms of lumbar canal disease which reduced with conservative treatment. 5 patients required spinal fusion surgeries in the later period. Conclusion: Thus, we can effectively conclude that our procedure is safe and effective in reducing the symptoms in those patients with neurogenic claudication.

Keywords: facetectoemy, stenosis, decompression, Lumbar Foraminal Stenosis, hemi-facetectomy

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Authors: A. Dėdelė, A. Miškinytė

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The assessment of air pollution exposure in different microenvironments is important for better understanding the relationship between health effects caused by air pollution. The recent researches revealed that the level of air pollution in transport microenvironment contributes considerably to the total exposure of air pollution. The aim of the study was to determine air pollution of nitrogen dioxide and to assess the exposure of NO2 dependence on the chosen commuting mode using a global positioning system (GPS). The same travel destination was chosen and 30 rides in three different commuting modes: cycling, walking, and public transport were made. Every different mean of transport is associated with different route. GPS device and travel diary data were used to track all routes of different commuting modes. Air pollution of nitrogen dioxide was determined using the ADMS-Urban dispersion model. The average annual concentration of nitrogen dioxide was modeled for 2011 year in Kaunas city. The geographical information systems were used to visualize the travel routes, to create maps indicating the route of different commuting modes and to combine modelled nitrogen dioxide data. The results showed that there is a significant difference between the selected commuting mode and the exposure of nitrogen dioxide. The concentrations in the microenvironments were 22.4 μg/m3, 21.4 μg/m3, and 25.9 μg/m3 for cycling, walking and public transport respectively. Of all the modes of commuting, the highest average exposure of nitrogen dioxide was found travelling by public transport, while the lowest average concentration of NO2 was determined by walking.

Keywords: nitrogen dioxide, dispersion model, commuting mode, GPS

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Authors: Carlos Theran, Yohn Parra Bautista, Victor Adankai, Richard Alo, Jimwi Liu, Clement G. Yedjou

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Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a neurodegenerative disorder primarily characterized by deteriorating cognitive functions. AD has gained relevant attention in the last decade. An estimated 24 million people worldwide suffered from this disease by 2011. In 2016 an estimated 40 million were diagnosed with AD, and for 2050 is expected to reach 131 million people affected by AD. Therefore, detecting and confirming AD at its different stages is a priority for medical practices to provide adequate and accurate treatments. Recently, Machine Learning (ML) models have been used to study AD's stages handling missing values in multiclass, focusing on the delineation of Early Mild Cognitive Impairment (EMCI), Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI), and normal cognitive (CN). But, to our best knowledge, robust performance information of these models and the missing data analysis has not been presented in the literature. In this paper, we propose studying the performance of five different machine learning models for AD's stages multiclass prediction in terms of accuracy, precision, and F1-score. Also, the analysis of three imputation methods to handle the missing value problem is presented. A framework that integrates ML model for AD's stages multiclass prediction is proposed, performing an average accuracy of 84%.

Keywords: alzheimer's disease, missing value, machine learning, performance evaluation

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Faouzi Ameur, Atef Belhaj Ali

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Located in the South-west of Saudi Arabia, Jeddah is more than a harbor. It is a big city of the Red Sea and the second town of Saudi Arabia, after Riyadh the capital. Jeddah profits from several economic assets due especially to its transit position towards the high sacred places of Islam like Mecca and Medina. During summer, this metropolis is transformed into a political capital and a tourist resort for foreigners and Saudis alike. The city of Jeddah was affected by serious sudden floods; two great ones took place in 2009, and in 2011. The human and material tools were considerable, since these events caused the death to hundreds of people, damaged thousands of buildings built on basins slopes, which, however had the authorizations necessary. To cope with these natural disasters, several urban hydraulic measures were undertaken like building dams and canals to collect surface waters. These urban measures aimed at the protection of inhabitants and belongings against the risks of floods as well as the interception and the drainage of streams. Although these protection measures are important, expensive, and effective, they are no longer enough or effective to cope with the evolution of the natural disasters that the city of Jeddah is constantly exposed to. These protective hydraulic measures did not make it possible to reach risk zero situations. They transferred the damages towards other zones. This paper purports to study the protection network systems in Jeddah and to understand their various impacts during floods on the city and on its inhabitants.

Keywords: Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, urbanization, hydraulic protection

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Authors: Mabrouka Immhemd Al-Werfalli

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How are political alienation and corruption related? What is the nature of relationship linking corruption and political alienation? When citizens withdraw their loyalty from their political regime and leaders, they highlight their alienation from them. The link between corruption and political alienation is that the individual would intentionally involve in corruption particularly when a state of lawlessness prevails. This paper represents a challenge- how to gauge a link between political alienation culture of corruption and corruption. It aims to highlight the political alienation related factors that determine the levels of corruption in Libya. One of the most prominent reasons for the Libyan uprising in February 2011 was the pervasiveness of corruption. Corruption in Libya remained a significant problem despite a robust anti-corruption discourse and harsh legislation undertaken by the previous regime. The long-standing political corruption in Libya has offered ample opportunity for the evolution of a structure of negative values and morals. This has formed what is termed as a ‘culture of corruption’, which has induced people to accept and justify corrupt behavior. The paper is a part of a study concerns the phenomenon of political alienation in Libya which was based on a survey conducted in 2001 in the city of Benghazi. The finding shows that abuse of power, embezzlement and misuse of public funds for personal enrichment was thought to be rife within public bodies, institutions, companies, factories, banks and enterprises owned entirely or partially by the state.

Keywords: Libya, abuse of power, anti-corruption, corruption, culture of corruption, embezzlement, participation in corruption, political alienation

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Authors: Negar Ghotbeddin, Izadpanah Zeinab, Tooraj Valinassab, Mohammad Azhir

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It is reported on results of a trawls survey in 2011 to assess the amount of biomass and Catch Per Unit of Area (CPUA) and also to determine the distribution pattern of Synodonidae family of demersal fishes (with emphasize on great lizardfish, Saurida tumbil) as one the most important and commercial fish species in the northwest of Persian Gulf. Samples were collected at a total 65 trawl stations selected a stratified random procedure. The study area was stratified to five strata (A to E) covering the depth layers of 10-20, 20-30 and 30-50 m. The catch rates of CPUA and biomass of lizardfishes were estimated to be approximately 316.20 kg/nm2, and 2902.1 tons, respectively. The highest value of biomass of Synodontids was recorded in the east of the study area, Bordkhoon to Dayer (stratum D & E, approximately 1310.6 tonnes) and in depth layer of 30-50 m; and the lowest value was estimated for stratum A (West of Khuzestan Province) and in depth layer of 10-20 m. On the other hand, the highest CPUA was recorded in stratum D and depth layer of 20-30 m; and the lowest value for stratum A and 10-20 m depth. It was concluded that stratum D (namely from Bordkhoon to Dayer) contains the best fishing area from the point of higher density and distribution of Synodontidae in the covering area, and from the point of depth distribution, they are found in depths more than 30 m.

Keywords: Saurida tumbil, CPUA, biomass, distribution, fishing area, Persian gulf

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Authors: W. Nataniel, B. Lima, J. Manoel, M. P. Filho, H. Marcos, Oliveira Mauricio, P. Ferreira

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Headed reinforcement bars are increasingly used for anchorage in concrete structures. Applications include connections in composite steel-concrete structures, such as beam-column joints, in several strengthening situations as well as in more traditional uses in cast-in-place and precast structural systems. This paper investigates the reduction in the ultimate tensile capacity of embedded cast-in headed anchors due to concrete cracking. A series of nine laboratory tests are carried out to evaluate the influence of cracking on the concrete breakout strength in tension. The experimental results show that cracking affects both the resistance and load-slip response of the headed bar anchors. The strengths measured in these tests are compared to theoretical resistances calculated following the recommendations presented by fib Bulletin no. 58 (2011), ETAG 001 (2010) and ACI 318 (2014). The influences of parameters such as the effective embedment depth (h_ef), bar diameter (d_s), and the concrete compressive strength (f_c) are analysed and discussed. The theoretical recommendations are shown to be over-conservative for both embedment depths and were, in general, inaccurate in comparison to the experimental trends. The ACI 318 (2014) was the design code which presented the best performance regarding to the predictions of the ultimate load, with an average of 1.42 for the ratio between the experimental and estimated strengths, standard deviation of 0.36, and coefficient of variation equal to 0.25.

Keywords: cast-in headed anchors, concrete cone failure, uncracked concrete, cracked concrete

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Authors: Małgorzata Jakubowska, Monika Michałowska

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Since the beginning of the cinematographic industry, there has been a visible interest in two leading themes: death and sexuality. One of the reasons of the unfading popularity of these motives was the fact that death or sex employed as leitmotivs attracted great attention of the viewers, and this guaranteed a financial success. What seems interesting is the fact that the themes of death and sexuality/eroticism seem to be mutually exclusive in the mainstream movies to such extent that they almost never appear together on the screen. As leitmotivs they describe opposite experiences of human life, one refers to affirmation of life, the other points to atrophy and decay. This film paradigm is rarely challenged. Thus, a relatively less attention has been devoted so far to entwining dying and sexuality/eroticism in one movie. In our paper, we wish to have a closer look at the visualizations of dying with focus on the aspect of sexuality/eroticism. Our analysis will concentrate on the contemporary European and American cinema, and especially the recent productions that contribute to the cultural phenomenon of entwining the two realms of human life. We will investigate the main clichés, plot and visual schemes, motives and narrative techniques on the examples of Sweet November (2001), A Little Bit of Heaven (2011) and Now is good (2012). We will also shed some light on the recent film productions that seem to provide a shift in portraying the realms of dying and sexuality concentrating on The Garden of Earthly Delights (2003) as the most paradigmatic example.

Keywords: contemporary cinema, dying and sexuality, narrative techniques, plot and visual schemes

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