Search results for: strategic International law

Authors: Joseph Lillington, Tom Gout, Mike Harrison, Ian Farnan

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The vitrification of high-level nuclear waste within borosilicate glass and its incorporation within a multi-barrier repository deep underground is widely accepted as the preferred disposal method. However, for this to happen, any safety case will require validation that the initially localized radionuclides will not be considerably released into the near/far-field. Therefore, accurate mechanistic models are necessary to predict glass dissolution, and these should be robust to a variety of incorporated waste species and leaching test conditions, particularly given substantial variations across international waste-streams. Here, machine learning is used to predict glass material properties (viscosity, density) and glass leaching model parameters from large-scale industrial data. A variety of different machine learning algorithms have been compared to assess performance. Density was predicted solely from composition, whereas viscosity additionally considered temperature. To predict suitable glass leaching model parameters, a large simulated dataset was created by coupling MATLAB and the chemical reactive-transport code HYTEC, considering the state-of-the-art GRAAL model (glass reactivity in allowance of the alteration layer). The trained models were then subsequently applied to the large-scale industrial, experimental data to identify potentially appropriate model parameters. Results indicate that ensemble methods can accurately predict viscosity as a function of temperature and composition across all three industrial datasets. Glass density prediction shows reliable learning performance with predictions primarily being within the experimental uncertainty of the test data. Furthermore, machine learning can predict glass dissolution model parameters behavior, demonstrating potential value in GRAAL model development and in assessing suitable model parameters for large-scale industrial glass dissolution data.

Keywords: machine learning, predictive modelling, pattern recognition, radioactive waste glass

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Authors: Flóra Pomázi, Sándor Baranya, Zoltán Szalai

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A harmonized monitoring of the suspended sediment transport along such a large river as the world’s most international river, the Danube River, is a rather challenging task. The traditional monitoring method in Hungary is obsolete but using indirect measurement devices and techniques like optical backscatter sensors (OBS), laser diffraction or acoustic backscatter sensors (ABS) could provide a fast and efficient alternative option of direct methods. However, these methods are strongly sensitive to the particle characteristics (i.e. particle shape, particle size and mineral composition). The current method does not provide sufficient information about particle size distribution, mineral analysis is rarely done, and the shape of the suspended sediment particles have not been examined yet. The aims of the study are (1) to determine the particle characterisation of suspended sediment in the Danube River using advanced particle characterisation methods as laser diffraction and automated imaging, and (2) to perform a sensitivity analysis of the indirect methods in order to determine the impact of suspended particle characteristics. The particle size distribution is determined by laser diffraction. The particle shape and mineral composition analysis is done by the Morphologi G3ID image analyser. The investigated indirect measurement devices are the LISST-Portable|XR, the LISST-ABS (Sequoia Inc.) and the Rio Grande 1200 kHz ADCP (Teledyne Marine). The major findings of this study are (1) the statistical shape of the suspended sediment particle - this is the first research in this context, (2) the actualised particle size distribution – that can be compared to historical information, so that the morphological changes can be tracked, (3) the actual mineral composition of the suspended sediment in the Danube River, and (4) the reliability of the tested indirect methods has been increased – based on the results of the sensitivity analysis and the previous findings.

Keywords: advanced particle characterisation, automated imaging, indirect methods, laser diffraction, mineral composition, suspended sediment

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Authors: Leandros A. Maglaras, Jianmin Jiang

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The protection of the national infrastructures from cyberattacks is one of the main issues for national and international security. The funded European Framework-7 (FP7) research project CockpitCI introduces intelligent intrusion detection, analysis and protection techniques for Critical Infrastructures (CI). The paradox is that CIs massively rely on the newest interconnected and vulnerable Information and Communication Technology (ICT), whilst the control equipment, legacy software/hardware, is typically old. Such a combination of factors may lead to very dangerous situations, exposing systems to a wide variety of attacks. To overcome such threats, the CockpitCI project combines machine learning techniques with ICT technologies to produce advanced intrusion detection, analysis and reaction tools to provide intelligence to field equipment. This will allow the field equipment to perform local decisions in order to self-identify and self-react to abnormal situations introduced by cyberattacks. In this paper, an intrusion detection module capable of detecting malicious network traffic in a Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system is presented. Malicious data in a SCADA system disrupt its correct functioning and tamper with its normal operation. OCSVM is an intrusion detection mechanism that does not need any labeled data for training or any information about the kind of anomaly is expecting for the detection process. This feature makes it ideal for processing SCADA environment data and automates SCADA performance monitoring. The OCSVM module developed is trained by network traces off line and detects anomalies in the system real time. The module is part of an IDS (intrusion detection system) developed under CockpitCI project and communicates with the other parts of the system by the exchange of IDMEF messages that carry information about the source of the incident, the time and a classification of the alarm.

Keywords: cyber-security, SCADA systems, OCSVM, intrusion detection

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Authors: Irianes C. Gozali, Betty J.L. Laglbauer, Muhammad G. Salim, Sila K. Sari, Fahmi Fahmi, Selvia Oktaviyani

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Muncar, located off the eastern coast of Java, is an important fishing port for small-scale fleets which land mobulid rays as retained bycatch, primarily in drift gillnets. Due to overlap with fishing grounds in the Bali Strait, three devil ray species are landed in Muncar, the spinetail devil ray Mobula mobular, the bentfin devil ray Mobula thurstoni, and the Chilean devil ray Mobula tarapacana, which are all listed as Endangered by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature. However, despite the importance of life-history data to better manage stocks, such information is still rare or unavailable for Indonesian mobulid ray populations. Using morphometric data, reproductive assessments, and samples collected from dead specimens at fish markets from 2015-2019, we provide information on the maturity stage, reproductive periodicity, gestation, and size at parturition. A majority of immature individuals of all three devil ray species were recorded (<10% individuals in Mobula mobular to <30% individuals in Mobula thurstoni). Pregnant females of two species, Mobula mobular and Mobula thurstoni were recorded containing embryos of various developmental stages (each with a single embryo in the left functional uterus), while for Mobula tarapacana, no fetuses were found. The largest embryo recorded in M. mobular was within the range of that previously reported for neonates of the species in Indonesia (957 cm, for a 920-994 range), and represents a near-term embryo reflecting size at parturition. Low reproductive output was confirmed for the study-species. Based on this study, we infer that the Bali Straight is likely an important location for devil ray reproduction, which raises concern for the sustainability of mobulid ray populations in the face of bycatch in drift gillnets. Potential management approaches to tackle this issue are discussed.

Keywords: devil ray, mobulid, reproduction, Indonesia

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Authors: Simont Toussi

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Cameroon and the Central African Republic arebound by the provisions of many regional and international charters, which condemn the manipulation of information, obstacles to access reliable information, or the limitation of freedoms of expression and opinion. These two countries also have constitutional guarantees for free speech and access to true and liable information. However, they are yet to define specific policies and regulations for access to information, disinformation, or misinformation. Yet, certain countries’ laws and regulations related to information and communication technologies, to criminal procedures, to terrorism, or intelligence services contain provisions that rather hider human rights by condemning false information. Like many other African countries, Cameroon and the Central African Republic face a profound democratic regression, and governments use multiple methods to stifle online discourse and digital rights. Despite the increased uptake of digital tools for political participation, there is a lack of interactivity and adoption of these tools. This enables a scarcity of information and creates room for the spreading of disinformation in the public space, hamperingdemocracy and the respect for human rights. This research aims to analyse the adequacy of stakeholders’ responses to disinformation in Cameroon and the Central African Republic in periods of political contestation, such as elections and anti-government protests, to highlight the nature, perpetrators, strategies, and channels of disinformation, as well as its effects on democratic actors, including civil society, bloggers, government critics, activists, and other human rights defenders. The study follows a qualitative method with literature review, content analysis, andkey informant’sinterviews with stakeholders’ representatives, emphasized crowdsourcing as a data and information collecting method in the two countries.

Keywords: disinformation, democracy, political manipulation, social media, media, fake news, central Africa, cameroon, misinformation, free speech

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Authors: Sylvia Chan-Olmsted, Lisa-Charlotte Wolter

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With the continuous proliferation of media platforms, there have been tremendous changes in media consumption behaviors. From the perspective of sports sponsorship, while there is now a multitude of platforms to create brand associations, the changing media landscape and shift of message control also mean that sports sponsors will have to take into account the nature of and consumer responses toward these emerging digital media to devise effective marketing strategies. Utilizing the personal interview methodology, this study is qualitative and exploratory in nature. A total of 18 experts from European and American academics, sports marketing industry, and sports leagues/teams were interviewed to address three main research questions: 1) What are the major changes in digital technologies that are relevant to sports sponsorship; 2) How have digital media influenced the channels and platforms of sports sponsorship; and 3) How have these technologies affected the goals, strategies, and measurement of sports sponsorship. The study found that sports sponsorship has moved from consumer engagement, engagement measurement, and consequences of engagement on brand behaviors to micro-targeting one on one, engagement by context, time, and space, and activation and leveraging based on tracking and databases. From the perspective of platforms and channels, the use of mobile devices is prominent during sports content consumption. Increasing multiscreen media consumption means that sports sponsors need to optimize their investment decisions in leagues, teams, or game-related content sources, as they need to go where the fans are most engaged in. The study observed an imbalanced strategic leveraging of technology and digital infrastructure. While sports leagues have had less emphasis on brand value management via technology, sports sponsors have been much more active in utilizing technologies like mobile/LBS tools, big data/user info, real-time marketing and programmatic, and social media activation. Regardless of the new media/platforms, the study found that integration and contextualization are the two essential means of improving sports sponsorship effectiveness through technology. That is, how sponsors effectively integrate social media/mobile/second screen into their existing legacy media sponsorship plan so technology works for the experience/message instead of distracting fans. Additionally, technological advancement and attention economy amplify the importance of consumer data gathering, but sports consumer data does not mean loyalty or engagement. This study also affirms the benefit of digital media as they offer viral and pre-event activations through storytelling way before the actual event, which is critical for leveraging brand association before and after. That is, sponsors now have multiple opportunities and platforms to tell stories about their brands for longer time period. In summary, digital media facilitate fan experience, access to the brand message, multiplatform/channel presentations, storytelling, and content sharing. Nevertheless, rather than focusing on technology and media, today’s sponsors need to define what they want to focus on in terms of content themes that connect with their brands and then identify the channels/platforms. The big challenge for sponsors is to play to the venues/media’s specificity and its fit with the target audience and not uniformly deliver the same message in the same format on different platforms/channels.

Keywords: digital media, mobile media, social media, technology, sports sponsorship

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Authors: Biniam Bahiru Tufa, Hana Delil Tesfaye, Seife Demisse Legesse, Manaye Tamire

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The healthcare industry is witnessing a digital transformation, with artificial intelligence (AI) offering potential solutions for challenges in health supply chain management (HSCM). However, the adoption of AI in this field remains limited. This research aimed to assess the knowledge, attitude, and practice of AI among students and employees in the health supply chain sector in Ethiopia. Using an explanatory case study research design with a concurrent mixed approach, quantitative and qualitative data were collected simultaneously. The study included 153 participants comprising students and employed health supply chain professionals working in various sectors. The majority had a pharmacy background, and one-third of the participants were male. Most respondents were under 35 years old, and around 68.6% had less than 10 years of experience. The findings revealed that 94.1% of participants had prior knowledge of AI, but only 35.3% were aware of its application in the supply chain. Moreover, the majority indicated that their training curriculum did not cover AI in health supply chain management. Participants generally held positive attitudes toward the necessity of AI for improving efficiency, effectiveness, and cost savings in the supply chain. However, many expressed concerns about its impact on job security and satisfaction, considering it as a burden Graduate students demonstrated higher knowledge of AI compared to employed staff, while graduate students also exhibited a more positive attitude toward AI. The study indicated low previous utilization and potential future utilization of AI in the health supply chain, suggesting untapped opportunities for improvement. Overall, while supply chain experts and graduate students lacked sufficient understanding of AI and its significance, they expressed favorable views regarding its implementation in the sector. The study recommends that the Ethiopian government and international organizations consider introducing AI in the undergraduate pharmacy curriculum and promote its integration into the health supply chain field.

Keywords: knowledge, attitude, practice, supply chain, articifial intellegence

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Authors: Md. Awal Hossain Mollah

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the relation between the free, fair and credible election in ensuring democratic governance in Bangladesh. The paper is a case (Bangladesh) study and qualitative in nature and based on secondary sources of materials. For doing this study, conceptual clarification has been done first and identified few elements of free, fair and credible elections. Then, how far these elements have been ensured in Bangladeshi elections has been evaluated by analyzing all the national elections held since independence. Apart from these, major factors and challenges of holding a free, fair and credible election in Bangladesh have been examined through using the following research questions: 1. Does role of election commission matter for free, fair and credible elections to form a democratic government? 2. Does role of political parties matter for democratic governance? 3. Do role of government matter for conducting the free, fair and credible election in ensuring democratic governance? 4. Does non-party caretaker government matter for conducting a free, fair and credible election? 5. Does democratic governance depend on multi-dimensional factors and actors? Major findings of this study are: Since the independence of Bangladesh, 10 national elections held in various regimes. 4 out of 10 national elections have been found free, fair and credible which have been conducted by the non-party caretaker government. Rests of the elections are not out of controversy and full of manipulation held under elected government. However, the caretaker government has already been abolished by the AL government through 15th amendment of the constitution. The present AL government is elected by the 10th parliamentary election under incumbent (AL) government, but a major opposition allies (20 parties) lead by BNP boycotted this election and 154 of the total 300 seats being uncontested. As a result, AL again came to the power without a competitive election and most of the national and International election observers including media world consider this election as unfair and the government is suffering from lack of legitimacy. Therefore, the governance of present Bangladesh is not democratic at all and it is to be considered as one party (14 parties’ allies lead by AL) authoritarian governance in the shade of parliamentary governance. Both the position and opposition of the parliament is belonging in 14 parties’ alliances lead by AL.

Keywords: democracy, governance, free, fair and credible elections, Bangladesh

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Authors: Atom Mkhitaryan, Astghik Avetisyan

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We analyze the developments of doctoral education in Armenia since 1990 and the management process. Education and training of highly qualified personnel are increasingly seen as a fundamental platform that ensures the development of the state. Reforming the national institute for doctoral studies (aspirantura) is aimed at improving the quality of human resources in science, optimizing research topics in accordance with the priority areas of development of science and technology, increasing publication and innovative activities, bringing national science and research closer to the world level and achieving international recognition. We present a number of defended dissertations in Armenia during the last 30 years, the dynamics and the main trends of the development of the academic degree awarding system. We discuss the possible impact of reforming the system of training and certification of highly qualified personnel on the organization of third–level doctoral education (doctoral schools) and specialized / dissertation councils in Armenia. The results of the SWOT analysis of doctoral education and academic degree awarding processes in Armenia are shown. The article presents the main activities and projects aimed at using the advantages and strong points of the National Academy network in order to improve the quality of doctoral education and training. The paper explores the mechanisms of organizational, methodological and infrastructural support for research and innovation activities of doctoral students and young scientists. There are also suggested approaches to the organization of strong networking between research institutes and foreign universities for training and certification of highly qualified personnel. The authors define the role of ISEC in the management of doctoral studies and the establishment of a competitive third-level education for the sphere of research and development in Armenia.

Keywords: doctoral studies, academic degree, PhD, certification, highly qualified personnel, dissertation, research and development, innovation, networking, management of doctoral school

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Authors: Ingrid Van Der Heijden, Naeemah Abrahams, Jane Harries

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Background: Women with disabilities are largely missing from global research on violence prevention, yet research shows that women with disabilities are a particularly marginalised group who experience heightened levels and unique forms of violence than men with disabilities, and women without disabilities. They face heightened stigma, discrimination, and violence due to their gender and their disability. Including women with disabilities in violence, research helps inform policy and prevention interventions that are relevant and inclusive. To ensure their inclusion in violence research, we need ethical guidelines that are sensitive to their heightened risk and vulnerability, that recognize the diversity in the disabled population, but that also promote disabled people’s agency in defining their own violence prevention needs and agendas. Objective: To highlight pertinent ethical issues around women with disabilities’ inclusion and participation in violence research. Methodology: Considering the lack of formalized guidelines for research of people with disabilities, we draw from the literature on international ethics guidelines for researching violence against women, and the Emancipatory Disability Research paradigm, as well as drawing from our own experiences from the field in applying the guidelines when doing research with disabled women. Findings: Following the guiding ethical principles of respect, benefit, justice, and do no harm, we argue that reasonable accommodation, capacity, and equal participation need to be considered in conceptualizing and conducting ethical violence research with women with disabilities. We conclude that disability research in the area of violence is highly politicized and must be carefully scrutinized to ensure justice and the contribution of women with disabilities to their own welfare. Implications: We suggest that these issues are practically applied in the field and tested and critiqued to enhance best practice for undertaking ethical research with this particular group. It is important that not only researchers and ethics committees, but also disabled women and disabled organizations, are involved in enhancing and formalizing ethical research guidelines for marginalized populations.

Keywords: capacity, emancipatory disability research paradigm equal participation, reasonable accommodation, research ethics, violence against women with disabilities

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Authors: Obafemi Akinwotu, Aylin Tas, Tony Taylor, Bukola Onarinde

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The study was conducted to explore the methods and tools to improve texture and preserve the total phenolic and antioxidant compounds of dysphagia foods produced from carrot-based puree with decolourised Chlorella algae. Textural properties (Texture profile analysis [TPA]; the International Dysphagia Diet Standardization Initiative, particle size test [PST]) and rheological properties (viscosity and viscoelastic properties) of carrot puree defrosted by different treatments (microwave, steamer, oven), were characterised using hydrocolloids (guar gum, k. carrageenan, and xanthan gum), and the results were compared to a level 4 commercial sample. DPPH (2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl) antiradical scavenging radicals and total phenolic contents were employed to evaluate the total phenolics, and radical scavenging properties of defrosted carrot puree sonicated carrot puree (20 Hz, 30 min, 60 oC), and vacuum-dried carrot powder with the addition of algae. Results show that the viscosity, viscoelasticity test, TPA, and PST of the commercial sample were comparable to those of guar gum and xanthan gum containing puree, suggesting that they could be used as dysphagia diets. There was no noticeable decolourisation of the Chlorella pigment. Additionally, the use of the microwave, stemmer, and oven for defrosting treatment had an impact on the textural characteristics of the moulded samples upon cooling and also contributed to the reduction in the total phenolic and antioxidant properties of the samples. Sonication treatments of algae exposure reduced the cloudiness of the green pigment and lightened the colour of the samples containing algae, and they also reduced the drying time from 2.5 to 1.5 hours during the preliminary work. The low-temperature vacuum- and freeze-dried samples increased the concentration of the powder and resulted in an increase in the total phenolic content of the dry samples. The dried products may therefore have the potential to become more nutrient-dense to benefit the health of individuals with dysphagia.

Keywords: dysphagia, elderly, hydrocolloids, carrot puree

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Authors: Fiona Gibson

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This study is on sustainable capacity building in tourism management of the touristic destination of forts and castles within the Accra Metropolis, of the Greater Accra Region of Ghana, notably, the Christianbough Castle, the James and Ussher Forts. These forts and castle mentioned above have a rich colonial historical past that emerged from the 17th century onwards on the Gulf Coast of Guinea of the West Africa Sub-Region. Unfortunately, apart from the Christianbough Castle, which used to be the seat of government until recently, the environment of James and Ussher Forts are in a deployable state of decay due to years of neglect. Jamestown and Usshertown fishing communities with historical colonial past of a rich touristic heritage sites are predominantly indigenous Gas who speak only the Ga language, one of the languages of the six local languages spoken in Ghana, as a medium for sustainable tourism management. The purpose of this study is to investigate the reasons for years of decay and neglect, using both qualitative and quantitative research approach for individual interviews, to develop a rich picture of life situational story of the people of James and Ussher Forts environs and finding solutions to their predicaments through internal generated funds for sustainability of tourism management within the communities. The study recommends nation-wide educational campaigns and programmes on culture of maintenance and management for sustainable tourism development and management at all historical heritage sites in the country, specifically with the aim of promoting tourism in Ghana, using the indigenous local languages. The study also recommends formal and informal education for the residents, especially the youth to help them learn skills, either through local training or the formal education and this call for collaboration between the government of Ghana and other local and international bodies.

Keywords: sustainable capacity building, tourism management, forts, castles

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Authors: Yuhan Wu, CTB (Kees) Ahaus, Martina Buljac-Samardzic

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Patient aggression and violence is a complex occupational hazards for physicians working in hospitals, and it can have multiple severe negative effects for physicians and hospitals. Although there is a range of interventions in the healthcare sector applied in various countries, China lacks a comprehensive set of interventions at the hospital level in this area. Therefore, due to cultural differences, this study investigates whether international interventions are important and feasible in the Chinese cultural context by conducting a Delphi study. Based on a literature search, a list of 47 hospital interventions to prevent and manage patient aggression and violence was constructed, including 8 categories: hospital environment design, access and entrance, staffing and work practice, training and education, leadership and culture, support, during/after-the-event actions, and hospital policy. The list of interventions will be refined, extended and brought back during a three-round Delphi study. The panel consists of 17 Chinese experts, including physicians experiencing patient aggression and violence, hospital management team members, scientists working in this research area, and policymakers in the healthcare sector. In each round, experts will receive the possible interventions with the instruction to indicate the importance and feasibility of each intervention for preventing and managing patient violence and aggression in Chinese hospitals. Experts will be asked about the importance and feasibility of interventions for patient violence and aggression at the same time. This study will exclude or include interventions based on the score of importance. More specifically, an intervention will be included after each round if >80% of the experts judged it as important or very important and excluded if >50% judged an intervention as not or moderately important. The three-round Delphi study will provide a list of included interventions and assess which of the 8 categories of interventions are considered as important. It is expected that this study can bring new ideas and inspiration to Chinese hospitals in the prevention and management of patient aggression and violence.

Keywords: patient aggression and violence, hospital interventions, feasibility, importance

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Authors: Dimitriu Corneliu-Ioan, Gheorghe FrațIlă

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Romania has one of the highest rates of road deaths among European Union Member States, and there is a concern that the country will not meet its goal of "zero deaths" by 2050. The European Union also aims to halve the number of people seriously injured in road accidents by 2030. Therefore, there is a need to improve road infrastructure safety management in Romania. The aim of this study is to analyze road accident data through statistical methods to assess the current state of road infrastructure safety in Bucharest. The study also aims to identify trends and make forecasts regarding serious road accidents and their consequences. The objective is to provide insights that can help prioritize measures to increase road safety, particularly in urban areas. The research utilizes statistical analysis methods, including exploratory analysis and descriptive statistics. Databases from the Traffic Police and the Romanian Road Authority are analyzed using Excel. Road risks are compared with the main causes of road accidents to identify correlations. The study emphasizes the need for better quality and more diverse collection of road accident data for effective analysis in the field of road infrastructure engineering. The research findings highlight the importance of prioritizing measures to improve road safety in urban areas, where serious accidents and their consequences are more frequent. There is a correlation between the measures ordered by road safety auditors and the main causes of serious accidents in Bucharest. The study also reveals the significant social costs of road accidents, amounting to approximately 3% of GDP, emphasizing the need for collaboration between local and central administrations in allocating resources for road safety. This research contributes to a clearer understanding of the current road infrastructure safety situation in Romania. The findings provide critical insights that can aid decision-makers in allocating resources efficiently and institutionally cooperating to achieve sustainable road safety. The data used for this study are collected from the Traffic Police and the Romanian Road Authority. The data processing involves exploratory analysis and descriptive statistics using the Excel tool. The analysis allows for a better understanding of the factors contributing to the current road safety situation and helps inform managerial decisions to eliminate or reduce road risks. The study addresses the state of road infrastructure safety in Bucharest and analyzes the trends and forecasts regarding serious road accidents and their consequences. It studies the correlation between road safety measures and the main causes of serious accidents. To improve road safety, cooperation between local and central administrations towards joint financial efforts is important. This research highlights the need for statistical data processing methods to substantiate managerial decisions in road infrastructure management. It emphasizes the importance of improving the quality and diversity of road accident data collection. The research findings provide a critical perspective on the current road safety situation in Romania and offer insights to identify appropriate solutions to reduce the number of serious road accidents in the future.

Keywords: road death rate, strategic objective, serious road accidents, road safety, statistical analysis

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Authors: Cecil Blake, Tolu Kayode-Adedeji, Innocent Chiluwa, Charles Iruonagbe

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National, regional and international security threats have dominated the twenty-first century thus far. Insurgencies that utilize “terrorism” as their primary strategy pose the most serious threat to global security. States in turn adopt terrorist strategies to resist and even defeat insurgents who invoke the legitimacy of statehood to justify their action. In short, the era is dominated by the use of terror tactics by state and non-state actors. Globally, there is a powerful network of groups involved in insurgencies using Islam as the bastion for their cause. In Africa, there are Boko Haram, Al Shabaab and Al Qaeda in the Maghreb representing Islamic groups utilizing terror strategies and tactics to prosecute their wars. The task at hand is to discover and to use multiple ways of handling the present security threats, including novel approaches to policy formulation, implementation, monitoring and evaluation that would pay significant attention to the important role of culture and communication strategies germane for discursive means of conflict resolution. In other to achieve this, the proposed research would address inter alia, root causes of insurgences that predicate their mission on Islamic tenets particularly in Africa; discursive and non-discursive counter-terrorism approaches fashioned by African governments, continental supra-national and regional organizations, recruitment strategies by major non-sate actors in Africa that rely solely on terrorist strategies and tactics and sources of finances for the groups under study. A major anticipated outcome of this research is a contribution to answers that would lead to the much needed stability required for development in African countries experiencing insurgencies carried out by the use of patterned terror strategies and tactics. The nature of the research requires the use of triangulation as the methodological tool.

Keywords: counter-terrorism, discourse, Nigeria, security, terrorism

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Authors: Legkikh Victoria

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The purpose of keeping bi/multilingualism is usually a way to let the child speak two/three languages at the same level. The main problem which normally appears is a mixed language or a domination of one language. The same level of two or more languages would be ideal but practically not easily reachable. So it was made an experiment with a girl with a natural multilingualism as an attempt to avoid a dominant language in the preschool age. The girl lives in Germany and the main languages for her are Italian, Russian and German but she also hears every day English. ‘One parent – one language’ strategy was used since the beginning so Italian and Russian were spoken to her since her birth, English was spoken between the parents and when she was 1,5 it was added German as a language of a nursery. In order to avoid a dominant language, she was always put in international groups with activity in different languages. Even if it was not possible to avoid an interference of languages in this case we can talk not only about natural multilingualism but also about balanced bilingualism in preschool time. The languages have been developing in parallel with different accents in a different period. Now at the age of 6 we can see natural horizontal multilingualism Russian/Italian/German/English. At the moment, her Russian/Italian bilingualism is balanced. German vocabulary is less but the language is active and English is receptive. We can also see a reciprocal interference of all the three languages (English is receptive so the simple phrases are normally said correctly but they are not enough to judge the level of language interference and it is not noticed any ‘English’ mistakes in other languages). After analysis of the state of every language, we can see as a positive and negative result of the experiment. As a positive result we can see that in the age of 6 the girl does not refuse any language, three languages are active, she differentiate languages and even if she says a word from another language she notifies that it is not a correct word, and the most important are the fact, that she does not have a preferred language. As a prove of the last statement it is to be noticed not only her self-identification as ‘half Russian and half Italian’ but also an answer to the question about her ‘mother tongue’: ‘I do not know, probably, when I have my own children I will speak one day Russian and one day Italian and sometimes German’. As a negative result, we can notice that not only a development of all the three languages are a little bit slower than it is supposed for her age but since she does not have a dominating language she also does not have a ‘perfect’ language and the interference is reciprocal. In any case, the experiment shows that it is possible to keep at least two languages without a preference in a pre-school multilingual space.

Keywords: balanced bilingualism, language interference, natural multilingualism, preschool multilingual education

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Authors: W. R. M. Shehani Shanika

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Selling goods and services using images, names and personalities of celebrities has become a common marketing strategy identified in modern physical and online markets. Two concepts called globalization and open economy have given numerous reasons to develop businesses to earn higher profits. Therefore, global market plus domestic markets in various countries have vigorously endorsing images of famous sport stars, film stars, singing stars and cartoon characters for the purpose of increasing demand for goods and services rendered by them. It has been evident that these trade strategies have become a threat to famous personalities in financially and personally. Right to the image is a basic human right which celebrities owned to avoid themselves from various commercial exploitations. In this respect, this paper aims to assess whether the law relating to character merchandising satisfactorily protects right to image of celebrities. However, celebrities can decide how much they receive for each representation to the general public. Simply they have exclusive right to decide monetary value for their image. But most commonly every country uses law relating to unfair competition to regulate matters arise thereof. Legal norms in unfair competition are not enough to protect image of celebrities. Therefore, celebrities must be able to avoid unauthorized use of their images for commercial purposes by fraudulent traders and getting unjustly enriched, as their images have economic value. They have the right for use their image for any commercial purpose and earn profits. Therefore it is high time to recognize right to image as a new dimension to be protected in the legal framework of character merchandising. Unfortunately, to the author’s best knowledge there are no any uniform, single international standard which recognizes right to the image of celebrities in the context of character merchandising. The paper identifies it as a controversial legal barrier faced by celebrities in the rapidly evolving marketplace. Finally, this library-based research concludes with proposals to ensure the right to image more broadly in the legal context of character merchandising.

Keywords: brand endorsement, celebrity, character merchandising, intellectual property rights, right to image, unfair competition

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Authors: Abdullah Alenezi, Mane Alsudrawi, Rafat Misak

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Kuwait is faced with a potentially wide and harmful range of both natural and anthropogenic hazardous events such as dust storms, floods, fires, nuclear accidents, earthquakes, oil spills, tsunamis and other disasters. For Kuwait can be highly vulnerable to these complex environmental risks, an up-to-date and in-depth understanding of their typology, genesis, and impact on the Kuwaiti society is needed. Adequate anticipation and management of environmental crises further require a comprehensive system of decision support to the benefit of decision makers to further bridge the gap between (technical) risk understanding and public action. For that purpose, the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), intends to establish a decision support center for management of the environmental crisis in Kuwait. The center will support policy makers, stakeholders and national committees with technical information that helps them efficiently and effectively assess, monitor to manage environmental disasters using decision support tools. These tools will build on state of the art quantification and visualization techniques, such as remote sensing information, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), simulation and prediction models, early warning systems, etc. The center is conceived as a central facility which will be designed, operated and managed by KISR in coordination with national authorities and decision makers of the country. Our vision is that by 2035 the center will be recognized as a leading national source of scientific advice on national risk management in Kuwait and build unity of effort among Kuwaiti’s institutions, government agencies, public and private organizations through provision and sharing of information. The project team now focuses on capacity building through upgrading some KISR facilities manpower development, build strong collaboration with international alliance.

Keywords: decision support, environment, hazard, Kuwait

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Authors: Funmilayo Sarah Eguakun, Peter Oluremi Adesoye

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One of the major problems being faced by human society is that the global temperature is believed to be rising due to human activity that releases carbon IV oxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. Carbon IV oxide is the most important greenhouse gas influencing global warming and possible climate change. With climate change becoming alarming, reducing CO2 in our atmosphere has become a primary goal of international efforts. Forest landsare major sink and could absorb large quantities of carbon if the trees are judiciously managed. The study aims at estimating the carbon sequestration capacity of Pinus caribaea (pine)and Tectona grandis (Teak) under the prevailing environmental conditions and exploring tree growth variables that influencesthe carbon sequestration capacity in Omo Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria. Improving forest management by manipulating growth characteristics that influences carbon sequestration could be an adaptive strategy of forestry to climate change. Random sampling was used to select Temporary Sample Plots (TSPs) in the study area from where complete enumeration of growth variables was carried out within the plots. The data collected were subjected to descriptive and correlational analyses. The results showed that average carbon stored by Pine and Teak are 994.4±188.3 Kg and 1350.7±180.6 Kg respectively. The difference in carbon stored in the species is significant enough to consider choice of species relevant in climate change adaptation strategy. Tree growth variables influence the capacity of the tree to sequester carbon. Height, diameter, volume, wood density and age are positively correlated to carbon sequestration. These tree growth variables could be manipulated by the forest manager as an adaptive strategy for climate change while plantations of high wood density speciescould be relevant for management strategy to increase carbon storage.

Keywords: adaptation, carbon sequestration, climate change, growth variables, wood density

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Authors: Murat Erkoc, Kadir Ertogral

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Maintenance, repair and overhauling (MRO) of high cost equipment used in many industries such as transportation, military and construction are typically subject to regulations set by local governments or international agencies. Aircrafts are prime examples for this kind of equipment. Such equipment must be overhauled at certain intervals for continuing permission of use. As such, the overhaul must be completed by strict deadlines, which often times cannot be exceeded. Due to the fact that the overhaul is typically a long process, MRO companies carry so called rotable inventory for exchange of expensive modules in the overhaul process of the equipment so that the equipment continue its services with minimal interruption. The extracted module is overhauled and returned back to the inventory for future exchange, hence the name rotable inventory. However, since the rotable inventory and overhaul capacity are limited, it may be necessary to carry out some of the exchanges earlier than their deadlines in order to produce a feasible overhaul schedule. An early exchange results with a decrease in the equipment’s cycle time in between overhauls and as such, is not desired by the equipment operators. This study introduces an integer programming model for the optimal overhaul and exchange scheduling. We assume that there is certain number of rotables at hand at the beginning of the planning horizon for a single type module and there are multiple demands with known deadlines for the exchange of the modules. We consider an MRO system with identical parallel processing lines. The model minimizes total earliness by generating optimal overhaul start times for rotables on parallel processing lines and exchange timetables for orders. We develop a fast exact solution algorithm for the model. The algorithm employs full-delay scheduling approach with backward allocation and can easily be used for overhaul scheduling problems in various MRO settings with modular rotable items. The proposed procedure is demonstrated by a case study from the aerospace industry.

Keywords: rotable inventory, full-delay scheduling, maintenance, overhaul, total earliness

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Authors: Carlu Van Der Westhuizen

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The South African Agricultural Sector is of major socio-economic importance to the country due to its contribution in maintaining stability in food production and food security, providing labour opportunities, eradicating poverty and earning foreign currency. Against this reality, this paper investigates within the Agricultural Sector in South Africa the changes in Land Policies that the new democratically elected government (African National Congress) brought about since their takeover in 1994. The change in the agricultural environment is decidedly dualistic, with 1) a commercial sector, and 2) a subsistence and emerging farmer sector. The future demands and challenges are mostly identified as those of land redistribution and social upliftment. Opportunities that arose from the challenge of change are, among others, the small-holder participation in the value chain, while the challenge of change in Agriculture and the opportunities that were identified could serve as a yardstick against which the Sectors’ (Agriculture) Performance could be measured in future. Unfortunately, despite all Governments’ Policies, Programmes and Projects and inputs of the Private Sector, the outcomes are, to a large extend, unsuccessful. The urgency with the Land Redistribution Programme is that, for the period 1994 – 2014, only 7.5% of the 30% aim in the redistribution of land was achieved. Another serious aspect of concern is that 90% of the Land Redistribution Projects are not in a state of productive use by emerging farmers. Several reasons may be offered for these failures, amongst others the uncoordinated way in which different stakeholders are involved in a specific farming project. These stakeholders could generally in most cases be identified as: - The Government as the policy maker; - The Private Sector that has the potential to contribute to the sustainable pre- and post-settlement stages of the Programme by cooperating the supporting services to Government; - Inputs from the communities in rural areas where the settlement takes place; - The landowners as sellers of land (e.g. a Traditional Council); and - The emerging beneficiaries as the receivers of land. Mentorship is mostly the medium with which the support are coordinated. In this paper focus will be on three scenarios of different types of mentorship (or management support) namely: - The Taung Irrigation Scheme (TIS) where multiple new land beneficiaries were established by sharing irrigation pivots and receiving mentorship support from commodity organisations within a traditional land sharing system; - Projects whereby the mentor is a strategic partner (mostly a major agricultural 'cooperative' which is also providing inputs to the farmer and responsible for purchasing/marketing all commodities produced); and - An individual mentor who is a private person focussing mainly on farm management mentorship without direct gain other than a monthly stipend paid to the mentor by Government. Against this introduction the focus of the study is investigating the process for the sustainable implementation of Governments’ Land Redistribution in South African Agriculture. To achieve this, the research paper is presented under the themes of problem statement, objectives, methodology and limitations, outline of the research process, as well as proposing possible solutions.

Keywords: land reform, role-players, failures, mentorship, management models

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Authors: Tomasz Komornicki

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The primary aim of the presentation is to try to model border traffic and, at the same time to explain on which economic variables the intensity of border traffic depended in the long term. For this purpose, long series of traffic data on the Polish borders were used. Models were estimated for three variants of explanatory variables: a) for total arrivals and departures (total movement of Poles and foreigners), b) for arrivals and departures of Poles, and c) for arrivals and departures of foreigners. Each of the defined explanatory variables in the models appeared as the logarithm of the natural number of persons. Data from 1994-2017 were used for modeling (for internal Schengen borders for the years 1994-2007). Information on the number of people arriving in and leaving Poland was collected for a total of 303 border crossings. On the basis of the analyses carried out, it was found that one of the main factors determining border traffic is generally differences in the level of economic development (GDP) and the condition of the economy (level of unemployment) and the degree of border permeability. Also statistically significant for border traffic are differences in the prices of goods (fuels, tobacco, and alcohol products) and services (mainly basic ones, e.g., hairdressing services). Such a relationship exists mainly on the eastern border (border traffic determined largely by differences in the prices of goods) and on the border with Germany (in the first analysed period, border traffic was determined mainly by the prices of goods, later - after Poland's accession to the EU and the Schengen area - also by the prices of services). The models also confirmed differences in the set of factors shaping the volume and structure of border traffic on the Polish borders resulting from general geopolitical conditions, with the year 2007 being an important caesura, after which the classical population mobility factors became visible. The results obtained were additionally related to changes in traffic that occurred as a result of the CPOVID-19 pandemic and as a result of the Russian aggression against Ukraine.

Keywords: border, modal structure, transport, Ukraine

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Authors: Ehlimana Memisevic

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Genocide denial is considered the final stage of genocide, which in the words of Gregory H. Stanton, represents "one of the most certain indicators of future genocides”. Genocide denial in Bosnia and Herzegovina started in 1992, almost simultaneously with the genocide itself. Over the course of the three decades, different forms of genocide and war crimes denial have been developed by state officials, politicians, journalists, and civilians, both in Republika Srpska – the Serb-dominated entity within Bosnia and Herzegovina – and Serbia. Moreover, genocide and war crimes are not only denied but also glorified and celebrated, which was described as "triumphalism" by the Australian-Bosnian scholar Hariz Halilovich who suggested it be added as the 11th phase of Gregory Stanton's "10 stages of genocide." Since 2007, there have been a number of attempts to criminalize genocide denial at the state level in Bosnia and Herzegovina. However, all of them were unsuccessful due to the opposition of representatives of Republika Srpska. On July 23, 2021, the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Valentin Inzko, used his power as the final authority in overseeing the civil implementation of the Dayton Peace Accords to impose amendments to Bosnia and Herzegovina's criminal code to ban the denial and glorification of genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes. However, immediately after the OHR's decision was announced, Milorad Dodik, a Serb member of Bosnia's tripartite presidency, held a press conference, publicly denied the genocide, and announced that this law would never be accepted in Republika Srpska. Denial remains explicit and public and is promulgated through official channels in Bosnia and Herzegovina. This paper will analyze the forms of genocide and other war crimes denial and glorification in the period after the amendments to the Criminal Code of Bosnia and Herzegovina were introduced, which include incrimination of public condoning, denial, gross trivialization or justification of a crime of genocide, crimes against humanity or a war crime established by a final adjudication of the international and domestic courts. We aim to determine the effect of the imposed law and the impact of the denial committed by high-ranking public officials on the denial and celebration of genocide and war crimes committed by ordinary citizens.

Keywords: genocide, denial, triumphalism, incrimination

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Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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Introduction. One of the most important issues of state economic policy in the 21st century is the problem of environmental protection. The Georgian government considers the green economy as one of the most important means of sustainable economic development and takes the initiative to implement voluntary measures to promote sustainable development. In this context, it is important to promote the development of ecosystem services, clean production, environmental education and green jobs.The development of the green economy significantly reduces the inefficient use of natural resources, waste generation, emissions into the atmosphere and the discharge of untreated water into bodies of water.It is, therefore, an important instrument in the environmental orientation of sustainable development. Objectives.The aim of the paper is to analyze the current status of the green economy in Georgia and identify effective ways to improve the environmental, economic policy of sustainable development. Methodologies: This paper uses general and specific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, scientific abstraction, comparative and statistical methods, as well as experts’ evaluation. bibliographic research of scientific works and reports of organizations was conducted; Publications of the National Statistics Office of Georgia are used to determine the regularity between analytical and statistical estimations. Also, theoretical and applied research of international organizations and scientist-economists are used. Contributions: The country should implement such an economic policy that ensures the transition to a green economy, in particular, revising water, air and waste laws, strengthening existing environmental management tools and introcing new tools (including economic tools). Perfecting the regulatory legal framework of the environmental impact assessment system, which includes the harmonization of Georgian legislation with the requirements of the European Union. To ensure the protection and rational use of Georgia's forests, emphasis should be placed on sustainable forestry, protection and restoration of forests.

Keywords: green economy, environmental protection, environmental protection economic policy, environmental protection policy challanges

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Authors: Norzaliza Md. Nor, Sh-Hussain Salleh, Mahyar Hamedi, Hadrina Hussain, Wahab Abdul Rahman

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Motivational factor is mainly the students’ desire to involve in learning process. However, it also depends on the goal towards their involvement or non-involvement in academic activity. Even though, the students’ motivation might be in the same level, but the basis of their motivation may differ. In this study, it focuses on the intrinsic motivational factor which student enjoy learning or feeling of accomplishment the activity or study for its own sake. The intrinsic motivational factor of students in learning mathematics and science has found as difficult to be achieved because it depends on students’ interest. In the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) for mathematics and science, Malaysia is ranked as third lowest. The main problem in Malaysian educational system, students tend to have extrinsic motivation which they have to score in exam in order to achieve a good result and enrolled as university students. The use of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals has found to be scarce especially to identify the students’ intrinsic motivational factor in learning science and mathematics. In this research study, we are identifying the correlation between precursor emotion and its dynamic emotion to verify the intrinsic motivational factor of students in learning mathematics and science. The 2-D Affective Space Model (ASM) was used in this research in order to identify the relationship of precursor emotion and its dynamic emotion based on the four basic emotions, happy, calm, fear and sad. These four basic emotions are required to be used as reference stimuli. Then, in order to capture the brain waves, EEG device was used, while Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficient (MFCC) was adopted to be used for extracting the features before it will be feed to Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) to classify the valence and arousal axes for the ASM. The results show that the precursor emotion had an influence the dynamic emotions and it identifies that most students have no interest in mathematics and science according to the negative emotion (sad and fear) appear in the EEG signals. We hope that these results can help us further relate the behavior and intrinsic motivational factor of students towards learning of mathematics and science.

Keywords: EEG, MLP, MFCC, intrinsic motivational factor

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Authors: Getachew Belay Kassahun

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Background: Locally established clinical laboratory reference intervals (RIs) are required to interpret laboratory test results for screening, diagnosis, and prognosis. The objective of this study was to establish a reference interval of clinical chemistry parameters among apparently healthy adolescents aged between 12 and 17 years in Mekelle, Tigrai, in the northern part of Ethiopia. Methods: Community-based cross-sectional study was employed from December 2018 to March 2019 in Mekelle City among 172 males and 172 females based on a Multi-stage sampling technique. Blood samples were tested for Fasting blood sugar (FBS), alanine amino transferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), Creatinine, urea, total protein, albumin (ALB), direct and indirect bilirubin (BIL.D and BIL.T) using 25 Bio system clinical chemistry analyzer. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 23 software and based on the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI)/ International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) C 28-A3 Guideline which defines the reference interval as the 95% central range of 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles. Mann Whitney U test, descriptive statistics and box and whisker were statistical tools used for analysis. Results: This study observed statistically significant differences between males and females in ALP, ALT, AST, Urea and Creatinine Reference intervals. The established reference intervals for males and females, respectively, were: ALP (U/L) 79.48-492.12 versus 63.56-253.34, ALT (U/L) 4.54-23.69 versus 5.1-20.03, AST 15.7- 39.1 versus 13.3- 28.5, Urea (mg/dL) 9.33-24.99 versus 7.43-23.11, and Creatinine (mg/dL) 0.393-0.957 versus 0.301-0.846. The combined RIs for Total Protein (g/dL) were 6.08-7.85, ALB (g/dL) 4.42-5.46, FBS(mg/dL) 65-110, BIL.D (mg/dL) 0.033-0.532, and BIL.T (mg/dL) 0.106-0.812. Conclusions: The result showed a marked difference between sex and company-derived values for selected clinical chemistry parameters. Thus, the use of age and sex-specific locally established reference intervals for clinical chemistry parameters is recommended.

Keywords: reference interval, adolescent, clinical chemistry, Ethiopia

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Authors: Espinosa Carlos, Nobrega Doris

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Children are at high risk for lead (Pb) exposure. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors that contribute to high blood lead (PbB) levels in Venezuelan children. The concentration of PbB was determined in 60 children (ages 4-9 years old), coming from the Michelena sector, Valencia District, Carabobo State. The relationship between these concentrations and socio-economical parameters (A: high quality life; B: fair quality life; C: critic poverty), Pb levels of faucet water (Pb-water) and dust Pb levels of floor (Pb-dust) of their houses, was established. Living areas were classified according to sectors and socio-economical status. Forty [40=66.7%] children resulted with PbB levels above the permissible concentration (LAPC). Average PbB was not significantly higher than the permissible levels. Odds ratio proved that children from status C are 7.28 times more likely to have LAPC of PbB than the ones coming from A or B. Thirty-four percent (34%) of the children with LAPC come from status C which could be considered the most critical status from the exposure risk point of view. The 76,3% of the sampled houses reported VSLP of Pb-water, being the Pb-water average in 35 ± 25.5 ug/L. This average significantly went superior to the permissible limit established by Venezuela and international organisms (10 ug/L). When grouping the results of PbB and Pb-water by sex, were that 50,8% of the children who presented/displayed VSLP of Pb-water and PbB. Was a significant relation (p ≤ 0.05), between masculine sex and the VSLP of PbB and Pb-water (x² = 3,672). In relation to the Pb-Dust analyses, were not statistically significant differences with respect to their permissible limit value (40 ug/pie²). This study shows that by correlating geographical and health data, we can identify 'high risk' areas, leading to a proactive public health action. The results of this study are excellent, in order to take preventive measures for the care from the health. Later studies are suggested predicting main to determine of more conclusive form of levels elevated of PbB in the investigated population.

Keywords: demographic, lead, risk, socio-economical status

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Authors: Andrea Vega-Tinoco, Ana I. Gil-Lacruz, Marta Gil-Lacruz

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The main objective of this research is to acknowledge whether civic participation affects the well-being of the elderly, thus being a key activity of active aging. It is also of interest to recognize any differences among genders, generational cohorts or country of residence. If a positive relationship is found between civic participation and well-being, the actions that promote this participation will benefit the quality of life of senior citizens. Otherwise, independent action must be taken in the improvement of social and human capital. The sample consists of approximately 50.000 individuals from the European Social Survey (2002-2016). Only individuals born before 1965 in 15 European countries were considered. The sample was distributed according to gender, year of birth, country, level of studies and ESS wave to form pseudo-panel data cohorts, leaving a total of 1.318 observations. The data were analyzed through a Cross-Lagged Model using Fixed-Effects. A bidirectional association is observed between the civic participation and well-being variables. However, participating in the past seems to have a higher impact on today’s health, happiness and life satisfaction than the other way around. Furthermore, 26% of the respondents expressed to be satisfied with their life, 27% to be happy and 57% to have good health. On the other hand, 49% have participated civically in the last year, being the most common activities: signing petitions, boycotting products and volunteer work in non-political organizations. A slight trend of BabyBoomers and men towards greater participation can be observed, as well as a higher impact of this participation on their well-being. In addition, international differences exhibit a stronger relation for Nordic, East European and Mediterranean countries. The given results support the hypothesis that civic participation is a promoter of well-being for the elderly. This paper positively highlights the activity of involving in political and non-political organizations, as well as wearing badges. At any rate, almost all forms of civic participation show a positive relationship with well-being and should therefore be promoted, although differences between countries must be taken into consideration.

Keywords: active aging, civic participation, Europe, well-being

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Authors: Francesca Fermi, Paola Astegiano, Angelo Martino, Stephanie Heitel, Michael Krail

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In order to achieve the targeted emission reductions for the decarbonisation of the European economy by 2050, fundamental contributions are required from both energy and transport sectors. The objective of this paper is to analyse the impacts of a largescale diffusion of e-vehicles, either battery-based or fuel cells, together with the implementation of transport policies aiming at decreasing the use of motorised private modes in order to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction goals, in the context of a future high share of renewable energy. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios on transport sector is performed with the ASTRA (ASsessment of TRAnsport Strategies) model. ASTRA is a strategic system-dynamic model at European scale (EU28 countries, Switzerland and Norway), consisting of different sub-modules related to specific aspects: the transport system (e.g. passenger trips, tonnes moved), the vehicle fleet (composition and evolution of technologies), the demographic system, the economic system, the environmental system (energy consumption, emissions). A key feature of ASTRA is that the modules are linked together: changes in one system are transmitted to other systems and can feed-back to the original source of variation. Thanks to its multidimensional structure, ASTRA is capable to simulate a wide range of impacts stemming from the application of transport policy measures: the model addresses direct impacts as well as second-level and third-level impacts. The simulation of the different scenarios is performed within the REFLEX project, where the ASTRA model is employed in combination with several energy models in a comprehensive Modelling System. From the transport sector perspective, some of the impacts are driven by the trend of electricity price estimated from the energy modelling system. Nevertheless, the major drivers to a low carbon transport sector are policies related to increased fuel efficiency of conventional drivetrain technologies, improvement of demand management (e.g. increase of public transport and car sharing services/usage) and diffusion of environmentally friendly vehicles (e.g. electric vehicles). The final modelling results of the REFLEX project will be available from October 2018. The analysis of the impacts and challenges of future scenarios is performed in terms of transport, environmental and social indicators. The diffusion of e-vehicles produces a consistent reduction of future greenhouse gas emissions, although the decarbonisation target can be achieved only with the contribution of complementary transport policies on demand management and supporting the deployment of low-emission alternative energy for non-road transport modes. The paper explores the implications through time of transport policy measures on mobility and environment, underlying to what extent they can contribute to a decarbonisation of the transport sector. Acknowledgements: The results refer to the REFLEX project which has received grants from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant Agreement No. 691685.

Keywords: decarbonisation, greenhouse gas emissions, e-mobility, transport policies, energy

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Authors: Temosho Promise Chuene, T. Chitura

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Background: Foot and mouth disease is a real challenge in South Africa. The disease is a serious threat to the viability of livestock farming initiatives and affects local and international livestock trade. In Limpopo Province, the Kruger National Park and other game reserves are home to the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer), a notorious reservoir of the picornavirus, which causes foot and mouth disease. Out of the virus’s seven (7) distinct serotypes, Southern African Territories (SAT) 1, 2, and 3 are commonly endemic in South Africa. The broad objective of the study was to establish the trend of foot and mouth disease in Limpopo Province over a seven-year period (2014-2020), as well as the adoption and comprehensive reporting of the measures that are taken to contain disease outbreaks in the study area. Methods: The study used secondary data from the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH) on reported cases of foot and mouth disease in South Africa. Descriptive analysis (frequencies and percentages) and Analysis of variance (ANOVA) were used to present and analyse the data. Result: The year 2020 had the highest prevalence of foot and mouth disease (3.72%), while 2016 had the lowest prevalence (0.05%). Serotype SAT 2 was the most endemic, followed by SAT 1. Findings from the study demonstrated the seasonal nature of foot and mouth disease in the study area, as most disease cases were reported in the summer seasons. Slaughter of diseased and at-risk animals was the only documented disease control strategy, and information was missing for some of the years. Conclusion: The study identified serious underreporting of the adopted control strategies following disease outbreaks. Adoption of comprehensive disease control strategies coupled with thorough reporting can help to reduce outbreaks of foot and mouth disease and prevent losses to the livestock farming sector of South Africa and Limpopo Province in particular.

Keywords: livestock farming, African buffalo, prevalence, serotype, slaughter

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