Search results for: fish mass mortality

Authors: Feng-Sheng Wang, Chao-Ting Cheng

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Developing a drug from conception to launch is costly and time-consuming. Computer-aided methods can reduce research costs and accelerate the development process during the early drug discovery and development stages. This study developed a fuzzy multi-objective hierarchical optimization framework for identifying potential anticancer targets in a metabolic model. First, RNA-seq expression data of colorectal cancer samples and their healthy counterparts were used to reconstruct tissue-specific genome-scale metabolic models. The aim of the optimization framework was to identify anticancer targets that lead to cancer cell death and evaluate metabolic flux perturbations in normal cells that have been caused by cancer treatment. Four objectives were established in the optimization framework to evaluate the mortality of cancer cells for treatment and to minimize side effects causing toxicity-induced tumorigenesis on normal cells and smaller metabolic perturbations. Through fuzzy set theory, a multiobjective optimization problem was converted into a trilevel maximizing decision-making (MDM) problem. The applied nested hybrid differential evolution was applied to solve the trilevel MDM problem using two nutrient media to identify anticancer targets in the genome-scale metabolic model of colorectal cancer, respectively. Using Dulbecco’s Modified Eagle Medium (DMEM), the computational results reveal that the identified anticancer targets were mostly involved in cholesterol biosynthesis, pyrimidine and purine metabolisms, glycerophospholipid biosynthetic pathway and sphingolipid pathway. However, using Ham’s medium, the genes involved in cholesterol biosynthesis were unidentifiable. A comparison of the uptake reactions for the DMEM and Ham’s medium revealed that no cholesterol uptake reaction was included in DMEM. Two additional media, i.e., a cholesterol uptake reaction was included in DMEM and excluded in HAM, were respectively used to investigate the relationship of tumor cell growth with nutrient components and anticancer target genes. The genes involved in the cholesterol biosynthesis were also revealed to be determinable if a cholesterol uptake reaction was not induced when the cells were in the culture medium. However, the genes involved in cholesterol biosynthesis became unidentifiable if such a reaction was induced.

Keywords: Cancer metabolism, genome-scale metabolic model, constraint-based model, multilevel optimization, fuzzy optimization, hybrid differential evolution

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Authors: Mojtaba Zabihi, Stephen Munro, Jonathan Little, Ri Li, Joshua Brinkerhoff, Sina Kheirkhah

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Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) identified dental workers at the highest risk of contracting COVID-19. This is because aerosol-generating procedures (AGP) during dental practices generate aerosols ( < 5µm) and droplets. These particles travel at varying speeds, in varying directions, and for varying durations. If these particles bear infectious viruses, their spreading causes airborne transmission of the virus in the dental room, exposing dentists, hygienists, dental assistants, and even other dental clinic clients to the infection risk. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation of two-phase flows based on a discrete phase model (DPM) is carried out to study the spreading of aerosol and droplets in a dental room. The simulation includes momentum, heat, and mass transfers between the particles and the airflow. Two simulations are conducted and compared. One simulation focuses on the effects of room ventilation in winter and summer on the particles' travel. The other simulation focuses on the control of aerosol and droplets' spreading. A suction collector is added near the source of aerosol and droplets, creating a flow sink in order to remove the particles. The effects of the suction flow on the aerosol and droplet travel are studied. The suction flow can remove aerosols and also reduce the spreading of droplets.

Keywords: aerosols, computational fluid dynamics, COVID-19, dental, discrete phase model, droplets, two-phase flow

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Authors: Raju Murugan, Pankaj S. Kolhe

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The present study is mainly focusing on the numerical simulation of Flow Blurring (FB) twin fluid injection concept was proposed by Ganan-Calvo, which involves back flow atomization based on global bifurcation of liquid and gas streams, thus creating two-phase flow near the injector exit. The interesting feature of FB injector spray is an insignificant effect of variation in atomizing air to liquid ratio (ALR) on a spray cone angle. Besides, FB injectors produce a nearly uniform spatial distribution of mean droplet diameter and are least susceptible to variation in thermo-physical properties of fuels, making it a perfect candidate for fuel flexible combustor development. The FB injector working principle has been realized through experimental flow visualization techniques only. The present study explores potential of ANSYS Fluent based Large Eddy Simulation(LES) with volume of fluid (VOF) method to investigate two-phase flow just upstream of injector dump plane and spray quality immediate downstream of injector dump plane. Note that, water and air represent liquid and gas phase in all simulations and ALR is varied by changing the air mass flow rate alone. Preliminary results capture two phase flow just upstream of injector dump plane and qualitative agreement is observed with the available experimental literature.

Keywords: flow blurring twin fluid atomization, large eddy simulation, volume of fluid, air to liquid ratio

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Authors: G. Magalhães-Mota, C. Magro, S. Sério, E. Mateus, P. A. Ribeiro, A. B. Ribeiro, M. Raposo

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Triclosan [5-chloro-2-(2,4-dichlorophenoxy) phenol], belonging to the class of Pharmaceuticals and Personal Care Products (PPCPs), is a broad-spectrum antimicrobial agent and bactericide. Because of its antimicrobial efficacy, it is widely used in personal health and skin care products, such as soaps, detergents, hand cleansers, cosmetics, toothpastes, etc. However, it has been considered to disrupt the endocrine system, for instance, thyroid hormone homeostasis and possibly the reproductive system. Considering the widespread use of triclosan, it is expected that environmental and food safety problems regarding triclosan will increase dramatically. Triclosan has been found in river water samples in both North America and Europe and is likely widely distributed wherever triclosan-containing products are used. Although significant amounts are removed in sewage plants, considerable quantities remain in the sewage effluent, initiating widespread environmental contamination. Triclosan undergoes bioconversion to methyl-triclosan, which has been demonstrated to bio accumulate in fish. In addition, triclosan has been found in human urine samples from persons with no known industrial exposure and in significant amounts in samples of mother's milk, demonstrating its presence in humans. The action of sunlight in river water is known to turn triclosan into dioxin derivatives and raises the possibility of pharmacological dangers not envisioned when the compound was originally utilized. The aim of this work is to detect low concentrations of triclosan in an aqueous complex matrix through the use of a sensor array system, following the electronic tongue concept based on impedance spectroscopy. To achieve this goal, we selected the appropriate molecules to the sensor so that there is a high affinity for triclosan and whose sensitivity ensures the detection of concentrations of at least nano-molar. Thin films of organic molecules and oxides have been produced by the layer-by-layer (LbL) technique and sputtered onto glass solid supports already covered by gold interdigitated electrodes. By submerging the films in complex aqueous solutions with different concentrations of triclosan, resistance and capacitance values were obtained at different frequencies. The preliminary results showed that an array of interdigitated electrodes sensor coated or uncoated with different LbL and films, can be used to detect TCS traces in aqueous solutions in a wide range concentration, from 10⁻¹² to 10⁻⁶ M. The PCA method was applied to the measured data, in order to differentiate the solutions with different concentrations of TCS. Moreover, was also possible to trace a curve, the plot of the logarithm of resistance versus the logarithm of concentration, which allowed us to fit the plotted data points with a decreasing straight line with a slope of 0.022 ± 0.006 which corresponds to the best sensitivity of our sensor. To find the sensor resolution near of the smallest concentration (Cs) used, 1pM, the minimum measured value which can be measured with resolution is 0.006, so the ∆logC =0.006/0.022=0.273, and, therefore, C-Cs~0.9 pM. This leads to a sensor resolution of 0.9 pM for the smallest concentration used, 1pM. This attained detection limit is lower than the values obtained in the literature.

Keywords: triclosan, layer-by-layer, impedance spectroscopy, electronic tongue

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Authors: Filipa Cortez, Vanessa Pereira

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Introduction: The main challenge of obesity treatment is long-term weight loss maintenance. The 3 phases method is a weight loss program that combines a low carb and moderately high-protein diet, food supplements and a weekly one-to-one consultation with a certified nutritionist. Sustained weight control is the ultimate goal of phase 3. Success criterion was the minimum loss of 10% of initial weight and its maintenance after 12 months. Objective: The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with successful weight loss maintenance after 12 months at the end of 3 phases method. Methods: The study included 199 subjects that achieved their weight loss goal (phase 3). Weight and body mass index (BMI) were obtained at the baseline and every week until the end of the program. Therapeutic adherence was measured weekly on a Likert scale from 1 to 5. Subjects were considered in compliance with nutritional recommendation and supplementation when their classification was ≥ 4. After 12 months of the method, the current weight and number of previous weight-loss attempts were collected by telephone interview. The statistical significance was assumed at p-values < 0.05. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS TM software v.21. Results: 65.3% of subjects met the success criterion. The factors which displayed a significant weight loss maintenance prediction were: greater initial percentage weight loss (OR=1.44) during the weight loss intervention and a higher number of consultations in phase 3 (OR=1.10). Conclusion: These findings suggest that the percentage weight loss during the weight loss intervention and the number of consultations in phase 3 may facilitate maintenance of weight loss after the 3 phases method.

Keywords: obesity, weight maintenance, low-carbohydrate diet, dietary supplements

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Authors: Jacobo Tabla, P. F. Rodriguez-Espinosa, M. E. Perez-Lopez

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Valsequillo reservoir located in Puebla City, Central Mexico receives water from the Atoyac River (Northwest) and from Alseseca River in the north. It has been the receptacle of municipal and industrial wastes for the past few decades affecting the water quality lethally. As a result, there is an outburst of water hyacinths (Eichhornia crassipes) in the reservoir occupying around 50 % of the total area. Therefore, the aim of the present work was to assess the concentration levels of toxic metals (Co, Zn, Ni, Cu and As) in the water hyacinths and the ambient waters during the dry season. Fourteen water samples and three water hyacinth samples were procured from the Valsequillo reservoir. The collected samples of water hyacinth (roots, rhizome, stems and leaves) were analyzed using an Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) Ultramass 700 (Varian Inc.) to determine the metal levels. Results showed that water hyacinth presented an exhaustion in metal capture from the inlet to outlet of the reservoir. The maximum bioaccumulation factors (BF) of Co, Zn, Ni, Cu and As were 5000, 47474, 4929, 17090 and 74000 respectively. On the other hand, the maximum Translocation Factor (TF) of 0.85 was observed in Zn, whilst Co presented the minimum TF of 0.059. Thus, the results presented the fact that water hyacinth in Valsequillo reservoir proves to be an important environmental utility for efficiently accumulating and translocating heavy metals from the ambient waters to its organelles (stems and leaves).

Keywords: bioaccumulation factor, toxic metals, translocation factor, water hyacinth

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Authors: Michael Russelle S. Alvarez, Noel S. Quiming, Francisco M. Heralde

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This study aims to: a) obtain ethanolic (95% EtOH) and aqueous extracts of Selaginella elmeri, Christella dentata, Elatostema sinnatum, Curculigo capitulata, Euphorbia hirta, Murraya koenigii, Alpinia speciosa, Cymbopogon citratus, Eucalyptus globulus, Jatropha curcas, Psidium guajava, Gliricidia sepium, Ixora coccinea and Capsicum frutescens and screen them for larvicidal activities against Aedes aegypti (Linn.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse) larvae; b) to fractionate the most active extract and determine the most active fraction; c) to determine the larvicidal properties of the most active extract and fraction against by computing their percentage mortality, LC50, and LC90 after 24 and 48 hours of exposure; and d) to determine the nature of the components of the active extracts and fractions using phytochemical screening. Ethanolic (95% EtOH) and aqueous extracts of the selected plants will be screened for potential larvicidal activity against Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus using standard procedures and 1% malathion and a Piper nigrum based ovicide-larvicide by the Department of Science and Technology as positive controls. The results were analyzed using One-Way ANOVA with Tukey’s and Dunnett’s test. The most active extract will be subjected to partial fractionation using normal-phase column chromatography, and the fractions subsequently screened to determine the most active fraction. The most active extract and fraction were subjected to dose-response assay and probit analysis to determine the LC50 and LC90 after 24 and 48 hours of exposure. The active extracts and fractions will be screened for phytochemical content. The ethanolic extracts of C. citratus, E. hirta, I. coccinea, G. sepium, M. koenigii, E globulus, J. curcas and C. frutescens exhibited significant larvicidal activity, with C. frutescens being the most active. After fractionation, the ethyl acetate fraction was found to be the most active. Phytochemical screening of the extracts revealed the presence of alkaloids, tannins, indoles and steroids. A formulation using talcum powder–300 mg fraction per 1 g talcum powder–was made and again tested for larvicidal activity. At 2 g/L, the formulation proved effective in killing all of the test larvae after 24 hours.

Keywords: larvicidal activity screening, partial purification, dose-response assay, capsicum frutescens

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Authors: Deepika Saini, Sandeep Jain, Ajay Kumar

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The quinoline scaffold is one of the most widely studied in the discovery of derivatives with various heterocyclic moieties due to its potential antimalarial activities. In the present study, a chalcone series of quinoline derivatives clubbed with pyrazole were synthesized to evaluate their antimalarial property by in vitro schizont maturation inhibition assay against both chloroquine sensitive, 3D7 and chloroquine resistant, RKL9 strain of Plasmodium falciparum. Further, top five compounds were studied for in vivo preclinical study for antimalarial potential against P. berghei in Swiss albino mice. To understand the mechanism of synthesized analogues, they were screened computationally by molecular docking techniques. Compounds were docked into the active site of a protein receptor, Plasmodium falciparum Cysteine Protease Falcipain-2. The compounds were successfully synthesized, and structural confirmation was performed by FTIR, 1H-NMR, mass spectrometry and elemental analysis. In vitro study suggested that the compounds 5b, 5g, 5l, 5s and 5u possessed best antimalarial activity and further tested for in vivo screening. Compound 5u (CH₃ on both rings) with EC₅₀ 0.313 & 0.801 µg/ml against CQ-S & CQ-R strains of P. falciparum respectively and 78.01% suppression of parasitemia. The molecular docking studies of the compounds helped in understanding the mechanism of action against falcipain-2. The present study reveals the binding signatures of the synthesized ligands within the active site of the protein, and it explains the results from in vitro study in their EC₅₀ values and percentage parasitemia.

Keywords: antimalarial activity, chalcone, docking, quinoline

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Authors: Sarah E. Nelson, Casey Weiner, Alexander Sigmon, Jun Hua, Haris I. Sair, Jose I. Suarez, Robert D. Stevens

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Graph-theoretical information from structural connectomes indicated significant connectivity changes and improved acute prognostication in a Random Forest (RF) model in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH), which can lead to significant morbidity and mortality and has traditionally been fraught by poor methods to predict outcome. This study’s hypothesis was that structural connectivity changes occur in canonical brain networks of acute aSAH patients, and that these changes are associated with functional outcome at six months. In a prospective cohort of patients admitted to a single institution for management of acute aSAH, patients underwent diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) as part of a multimodal MRI scan. A weighted undirected structural connectome was created of each patient’s images using Constant Solid Angle (CSA) tractography, with 176 regions of interest (ROIs) defined by the Johns Hopkins Eve atlas. ROIs were sorted into four networks: Default Mode Network, Executive Control Network, Salience Network, and Whole Brain. The resulting nodes and edges were characterized using graph-theoretic features, including Node Strength (NS), Betweenness Centrality (BC), Network Degree (ND), and Connectedness (C). Clinical (including demographics and World Federation of Neurologic Surgeons scale) and graph features were used separately and in combination to train RF and Logistic Regression classifiers to predict two outcomes: dichotomized modified Rankin Score (mRS) at discharge and at six months after discharge (favorable outcome mRS 0-2, unfavorable outcome mRS 3-6). A total of 56 aSAH patients underwent DTI a median (IQR) of 7 (IQR=8.5) days after admission. The best performing model (RF) combining clinical and DTI graph features had a mean Area Under the Receiver Operator Characteristic Curve (AUROC) of 0.88 ± 0.00 and Area Under the Precision Recall Curve (AUPRC) of 0.95 ± 0.00 over 500 trials. The combined model performed better than the clinical model alone (AUROC 0.81 ± 0.01, AUPRC 0.91 ± 0.00). The highest-ranked graph features for prediction were NS, BC, and ND. These results indicate reorganization of the connectome early after aSAH. The performance of clinical prognostic models was increased significantly by the inclusion of DTI-derived graph connectivity metrics. This methodology could significantly improve prognostication of aSAH.

Keywords: connectomics, diffusion tensor imaging, graph theory, machine learning, subarachnoid hemorrhage

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Authors: Sadia Suri Kashif, Raheeda Fatima, Maqsood Ahmed Khan

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Purpose of the study: The objective of this research was to determine the perception of Pakistani physicians (whether primary care, specialists or residents) in Karachi, being one of the largest and highly populated cities of Pakistan, regarding clinical approaches towards diet, exercise, and therapy in obese patients. This research determines their understanding of obesity and employability of obesity management in their daily practices. Research methodology: This is a questionnaire-based survey. A minimum of 300 questionnaires (N=300) were distributed and filled by practicing physicians in a random selection of medical setups in Karachi. Randomly 246 physicians responded to the survey. The survey tested their views regarding weight management, importance of general awareness and their strategies to control weight. Results: In the first part of survey the physicians responded to almost 66% regarding the seriousness of obesity management with advising diet modification, physical exercise and decreasing calorie intake; 57% failed to employ Body Mass Index and Waist Hip Ratio as weight measurement tools in their daily practice; 50% disagreed on using pharmacotherapy as an option; 67% were not sure about the proper dosage and indication of anti-obesity medication while almost same disagreed on using surgical options for management of obesity; 83.3% physicians agreed on the increased obesity pandemic in Pakistan. Conclusion: The findings indicate that there is a gap between awareness and knowledge among Pakistani practicing physicians regarding pharmacotherapy for obesity. There is a need to frequently update latest guidelines to help manage this condition, which is becoming more prevalent in our country day by day. Physicians should be obligated to use updated knowledge for managing obesity.

Keywords: obesity, physicians, BMI, weight management, obesity awareness

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Authors: Farzad Jafarpour Taher, Maghsud Solimanpur

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Production planning is one of the complex tasks in multi-product firms that produce a wide range of products. Since resources in mass production companies are limited and different products use common resources, there must be a careful plan so that firms can respond to customer needs efficiently. Azar-battery Company is a firm that provides twenty types of products for its customers. Therefore, careful planning must be performed in this company. In this research, the current conditions of Azar-battery Company were investigated to provide a mathematical programming model to determine the optimum production rate of the products in this company. The production system of this company is multi-stage, multi-product and multi-period. This system is studied in terms of a one-year planning horizon regarding the capacity of machines and warehouse space limitation. The problem has been modeled as a linear programming model with deterministic demand in which shortage is not allowed. The objective function of this model is to minimize costs (including raw materials, assembly stage, energy costs, packaging, and holding). Finally, this model has been solved by Lingo software using the branch and bound approach. Since the computation time was very long, the solver interrupted, and the obtained feasible solution was used for comparison. The proposed model's solution costs have been compared to the company’s real data. This non-optimal solution reduces the total production costs of the company by about %35.

Keywords: multi-period, multi-product production, multi-stage, production planning

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Authors: Nouria Bouchikhi, Soufiane Bedjaoui, C. Tewfik Bouchaour, Lamia Alachaher Bedjaoui, Ulrich Maschke

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Swelling properties and phase diagrams of binary systems composed of liquid crystalline networks and a low molecular mass liquid crystal (LMWLC) have been investigated. The networks were prepared by ultraviolet (UV) irradiation of reactive mixtures including a monomer, a cross-linking agent and a photo-initiator. These networks were prepared using two cross-linking agents: 1,6 hexanedioldiacrylate (HDDA) and a mesogenic acrylic acid 6-(4’-(6-acryloyloxy-hexyloxy) biphenyl-4-yl oxy) hexyl ester (AHBH). The obtained dry networks were characterized by differential scanning calorimetry, and immersed in an excess of a LMWLC solvent 4-cyano-4’-pentylbiphenyl (5CB), forming polymer gels. A detailed study by polarized optical microscopy allowed to determine the swelling degree of the gels and to follow the phase behavior of the solvent inside the polymer matrix in a wide range of temperature. It has been found that the gels undergo a sharp decrease of their swelling degree in response to an infinitesimal change of temperature. This finding adds new and interesting aspects on the actuators applications. We have subsequently explored the effect of different parameters on volume phase transition of these liquid crystalline materials. Such as the cross-linking density (CD), a nature of cross-linking agent and the photo initiator concentration.

Keywords: cross-linking density, liquid crystalline elastomers, phase diagrams, swelling

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Authors: A. A. Dare, E. U. Iniegbedion

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Industrial furnaces generally involve enclosures of fire typically initiated by the combustion of gases. The fire leads to temperature distribution inside the enclosure. A proper understanding of the temperature and velocity distribution within the enclosure is often required for optimal design and use of the furnace. This study was therefore directed at numerical modeling of temperature distribution inside an enclosure as typical in a furnace. A mathematical model was developed from the conservation of mass, momentum and energy. The stream function-vorticity formulation of the governing equations was solved by an alternating direction implicit (ADI) finite difference technique. The finite difference formulation obtained were then developed into a computer code. This was used to determine the temperature, velocities, stream function and vorticity. The effect of the wall heat conduction was also considered, by assuming a one-dimensional heat flow through the wall. The computer code (MATLAB program) developed was used for the determination of the aforementioned variables. The results obtained showed that the transient temperature distribution assumed a uniform profile which becomes more chaotic with increasing time. The vertical velocity showed increasing turbulent behavior with time, while the horizontal velocity assumed decreasing laminar behavior with time. All of these behaviours were equally reported in the literature. The developed model has provided understanding of heat transfer process in an industrial furnace.

Keywords: heat source, modelling, enclosure, furnace

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Authors: Pedro Ferraz-Gameiro

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Introduction: The Pellegrini-Stieda lesion is the result of post-traumatic calcification and/or ossification on the medial collateral ligament (MCL) of the knee. When this calcification is accompanied by gonalgia and limitation of knee flexion, it is called Pellegrini-Stieda syndrome. The pathogenesis is probably the calcification of a post-traumatic hematoma at least three weeks after the initial trauma or secondary to repetitive microtrauma. On anteroposterior radiographs, a Pellegrini-Stieda lesion is a linear vertical ossification or calcification of the proximal portion of the MCL and usually near the medial femoral condyle. Patients with Pellegrini-Stieda syndrome present knee pain associated with loss of range of motion. The treatment is usually conservative with analgesic and anti-inflammatory drugs, either systemic or intra-articular. Physical medicine and rehabilitation techniques associated with shock wave therapy can be a way of reduction of pain/inflammation. Patients who maintain instability with significant limitation of knee mobility may require surgical excision. Methods: Research was done using PubMed central using the terms Pellegrini-Stieda syndrome. Discussion/conclusion: Medical treatment is the rule, with initial rest, anti-inflammatory, and physiotherapy. If left untreated, this ossification can potentially form a significant bone mass, which can compromise the range of motion of the knee. Physical medicine and rehabilitation techniques associated with shock wave therapy are a way of reduction of pain/inflammation.

Keywords: knee, Pellegrini-Stieda syndrome, rehabilitation, shock waves therapy

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Authors: E. Gopi, E. Devaindran

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Objective: Non-operative management of blunt splenic trauma have started to overtake the traditional splenectomy in recent years across the grade of splenic injury. The two main non-operative methods are observation and angioembolisation. However, the post management convalescence in these groups are still being investigated. The study attempts to quantify the clinical indicators among the two in particular complications, mortalities, conversions to operative management and duration of inpatient stay. Methodology: A systematic search was done via PUBMED, MEDLINE, and EMBASE. A total of 639 articles identified and subsequently 68 articles were identified post duplicates, full text, and inclusion and exclusion criteria. Main exclusions were non-English articles without English translation, pure observational or angioembolisation articles of which no comparison data could be identified and articles looking into pure hemodynamically unstable patients. Results: 24 non randomized controlled trial, 5 clinical control trial and 39 retrospective studies analyzing a total of 23700 patients with blunt splenic trauma. Discrepancies in data were noted in the group who had observational management versus angioembolisation in particular as data was compared among the classes of splenic rupture, the protocol of management in different centers, availability of angiogram suite, and the study design. Further variability was also noted in the angioembolisation arm as the preference for treatment differs between distal versus proximal splenic artery involvement. Overall the cumulative mortality in both observational and angioembolisation group were similar, 2.78% and 5.97% respectively. The cause of death however is not directly attributed to the management itself but rather patient comorbidities, other associated injuries and conversions to splenectomy leading to post splenectomy complications. The cumulative morbidity among each group appears to be same approximately 12% in observational versus 15% in angioembolisation. However, the type of complications varies with the observational group having higher rates of inpatient stay and intrabdominal hematoma infection and angioembolisation group developing more splenic infarcts and bleeds. There were significant disparity in reporting the actual data on duration of inpatient stay and complications to allow a statistically significant quantitative analysis to be done, 15 articles however are currently being considered. Conclusions: Observational management appears to be much effective in managing lower grade splenic trauma (grade 1 and 2) where else angioembolisation appears to play a bigger role in intermediate grades (grade 3-4) in ensuring splenic function preservation. Care has to be taken however in the angioembolisation group in view of distal splenic infarct group compromising splenic function. The cumulated data of 15 articles are now being considered for a meta-analysis.

Keywords: blunt splenic trauma, conservative, non-operative, angioembolisation

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Authors: Kanit Aroonrat, Somchai Wongwises

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A heat exchanger is one of the vital parts in a wide variety of applications. The tube with surface modification is generally referred to as an enhanced tube. With this, the thermal performance of the heat exchanger is improved. A dimpled tube is one of many kinds of enhanced tube. The heat transfer and pressure drop of two-phase flow inside dimpled tubes have received little attention in the literature, despite of having an important role in the development of refrigeration and air conditioning systems. As a result, the main aim of this study is to investigate the condensation heat transfer and pressure drop of refrigerant-134a flowing inside dimpled tubes. The test section is a counter-flow double-tube heat exchanger, which the refrigerant flows in the inner tube and water flows in the annulus. The inner tubes are one smooth tube and three dimpled tubes with different helical pitches. All test tubes are made from copper with an inside diameter of 8.1 mm and length of 1500 mm. The experiments are conducted over mass fluxes ranging from 300 to 500 kg/m²s, heat flux ranging from 10 to 20 kW/m², and condensing temperature ranging from 40 to 50 ˚C. The results show that all dimpled tubes provide higher heat transfer coefficient and frictional pressure drop compared to the smooth tube. In addition, the heat transfer coefficient and frictional pressure drop increase with decreasing of helical pitch. It can be observed that the dimpled tube with lowest helical pitch yields the heat transfer enhancement in the range of 60-89% with the frictional pressure drop increase of 289-674% in comparison to the smooth tube.

Keywords: condensation, dimpled tube, heat transfer, pressure drop

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Authors: Mohamed Ouzzane, Mahmoud Bady

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Due to energy and environment context, research is looking for the use of clean and energy efficient system in cooling industry. In this regard, the ejector represents one of the promising solutions. The thermal ejector is a passive component used for thermal compression in refrigeration and cooling systems, usually activated by heat either waste or solar. The present study introduces a theoretical analysis of the cooling system which uses a gas ejector thermal compression. A theoretical model is developed and applied for the design and simulation of the ejector, as well as the whole cooling system. Besides the conservation equations of mass, energy and momentum, the gas dynamic equations, state equations, isentropic relations as well as some appropriate assumptions are applied to simulate the flow and mixing in the ejector. This model coupled with the equations of the other components (condenser, evaporator, pump, and generator) is used to analyze profiles of pressure and velocity (Mach number), as well as evaluation of the cycle cooling capacity. A FORTRAN program is developed to carry out the investigation. Properties of refrigerant R134a are calculated using real gas equations. Among many parameters, it is thought that the generator pressure is the cornerstone in the cycle, and hence considered as the key parameter in this investigation. Results show that the generator pressure has a great effect on the ejector and on the whole cooling system. At high generator pressures, strong shock waves inside the ejector are created, which lead to significant condenser pressure at the ejector exit. Additionally, at higher generator pressures, the designed system can deliver cooling capacity for high condensing pressure (hot season).

Keywords: air cooling system, refrigeration, thermal ejector, thermal compression

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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Two-part random effects models have been used to fit semi-continuous longitudinal data where the response variable has a point mass at 0 and a continuous right-skewed distribution for positive values. We review methods proposed in the literature for analyzing data with excess zeros. A two-part logit-log-normal random effects model, a two-part logit-truncated normal random effects model, a two-part logit-gamma random effects model, and a two-part logit-skew normal random effects model were used to examine effects of a bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use and daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months in a randomized controlled trial. We show in all four two-part models that the intervention promoted bottle-weaning and reduced daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers drinking from a bottle. We also show that there are no differences in model fit using either the logit link function or the probit link function for modeling the probability of bottle-weaning in all four models. Furthermore, prediction accuracy of the logit or probit link function is not sensitive to the distribution assumption on daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, truncated normal, gamma regression, skew normal, Pearson residual, receiver operating characteristic curve

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Authors: Funmilayo L. Amao, Amos O. Amao

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It has been observed that majority of the people are living in poor housing quality or totally homeless in urban center despite all governmental policies to provide housing to the public. On the supply side, various government policies in the past have been formulated towards overcoming the huge shortage through several Housing Reform Programmes. Despite these past efforts, housing continues to be a mirage to ordinary Nigerian. Currently, there are various mass housing delivery programmes such as the affordable housing scheme that utilize the Public Private Partnership effort and several Private Finance Initiative models could only provide for about 3% of the required stock. This suggests the need for a holistic solution in approaching the problem. The aim of this research is to find out the problems hindering the delivery of housing in Nigeria and its effects on housing affordability. The specific objectives are to identify the causes of housing delivery problems, to examine different housing policies over years and to suggest a way out for sustainable housing delivery. This paper also reviews the past and current housing delivery programmes in Nigeria and analyses the demand and supply side issues. It identifies the various housing delivery mechanisms in current practice. The objective of this paper, therefore, is to give you an insight into the delivery option for the sustainability of housing in Nigeria, given the existing delivery structures and the framework specified in the New National Housing Policy. The secondary data were obtained from books, journals and seminar papers. The conclusion is that we cannot copy models from other nations, but should rather evolve workable models based on our socio-cultural background to address the huge housing shortage in Nigeria. Recommendations are made in this regard.

Keywords: housing, sustainability, housing delivery, housing policy, housing affordability

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Authors: A. Aslihan Gokaltun, Ali Tuncel

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The unique properties of capillary electrochromatography (CEC) such as high performance, high selectivity, low consumption of both reagents and analytes ensure this technique an attractive one for the separation of biomolecules including nucleosides and nucleotides, peptides, proteins, carbohydrates. Monoliths have become a well-established separation media for CEC in the format that can be compared to a single large 'particle' that does not include interparticular voids. Convective flow through the pores of monolith significantly accelerates the rate of mass transfer and enables a substantial increase in the speed of the separation. In this work, we propose a new approach for the preparation of cationic monolithic stationary phase for capillary electrochromatography. Instead of utilizing a charge bearing monomer during polymerization, the desired charge-bearing group is generated on the capillary monolith after polymerization by using the reactive moiety of the monolithic support via one-pot, simple reaction. Optimized monolithic column compensates the disadvantages of frequently used reversed phases, which are difficult for separation of polar solutes. Rapid separation and high column efficiencies are achieved for the separation of neutral analytes, nucleic acid bases and nucleosides in reversed phase mode. Capillary monolith showed satisfactory hydrodynamic permeability and mechanical stability with relative standard deviation (RSD) values below 2 %. A new promising, reactive support that has a 'ligand selection flexibility' due to its reactive functionality represent a new family of separation media for CEC.

Keywords: biomolecules, capillary electrochromatography, cationic monolith, neutral analytes

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Authors: K. Ravi, Sabu Subhash

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Densely compacted bentonite or bentonite–sand mixture has been identified as a suitable buffer in the deep geological repository (DGR) for the safe disposal of high-level nuclear waste (HLW) due to its favourable physicochemical and hydro-mechanical properties. The addition of sand to the bentonite enhances the thermal conductivity and compaction properties and reduces the drying shrinkage of the buffer material. The buffer material may undergo cyclic wetting and drying upon ingress of groundwater from the surrounding rock mass and from evaporation due to high temperature (50–210 °C) derived from the waste canister. The cycles of changes in temperature may result in thermal history, and the hydro-mechanical properties of the buffer material may be affected. This paper examines the influence of thermal history on the undrained shear strength of bentonite and bentonite-sand mixture. Bentonite from Rajasthan state and sand from the Assam state of India are used in this study. The undrained shear strength values are obtained by conducting unconfined compressive strength (UCS) tests on cylindrical specimens (dry densities 1.30 and 1.5 Mg/m3) of bentonite and bentonite-sand mixture consisting of 30 % bentonite+ 70 % sand. The specimens are preheated at temperatures varying from 50-150 °C for one, two and four hours in hot air oven. The results indicate that the undrained shear strength is increased by the thermal history of the buffer material. The specimens of bentonite-sand mixture exhibited more increase in strength compared to the pure bentonite specimens. This indicates that the sand content of the mixture plays a vital role in taking the thermal stresses of the bentonite buffer in DGR conditions.

Keywords: bentonite, deep geological repository, thermal history, undrained shear strength

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Authors: Ismail Bamidele Afolabi, Abdulmujeeb Babatunde Aremu, Lawal Abdurraheem Maidoki, Nnodimele Onuigbo Atulomah

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Background: Hepatitis B virus infection remains a significant global public health challenge with infectivity as well as the potential for transmission more than 50 to 100 times that of HIV. Annually, global HBV-related mortality is linked primarily to cirrhosis and liver carcinoma. The ever-increasing endemicity of HBV among children under-5-years, owing to vertical transmission and its lingering chronicity in developing countries, will hamper the global efforts concertedly endorsed towards eliminating viral hepatitis as a global public health threat by 2030. Objective: This study assessed information motivation behavioral skills model constructs as predictors of HBV infection prevention practices among consenting expectant mothers attending antenatal care in Central Uganda as a focal point of intervention towards breaking materno-foetal transmission of HBV. Methods: A cross-sectional study with a quantitative data collection approach based on the constructs of the IMB model was used to capture data on the study variables among 385 randomly selected pregnant women between September and October 2020. Data derived from the quantitative instrument were transformed into weighted aggregate scores using SPSS version 26. ANOVA and regression analysis were done to ascertain the study hypotheses with a significance level set as (p ≤ 0.05). Results: Relatively 60% of the respondents were aged between 18 and 28. Expectant mothers with secondary education (42.3%) were predominant. Furthermore, an average but inadequate knowledge (X ̅=5.97±6.61; B=0.57; p<.001), incorrect perception (X ̅=17.10±18.31; B=0.97; p=.014), and good behavioral skills (X ̅=12.39±13.37; B=0.56; p<.001) for adopting prevention practices all statistically predicted the unsatisfactory level of prevention practices (X ̅=15.03±16.20) among the study respondents as measured on rating scales of 12, 33, 21 and 30 respectively. Conclusion: Evidence from this study corroborates the imperativeness of IMB constructs in reducing the burden of HBV infection in developing countries. Therefore, the inadequate HBV knowledge and misperception among obstetric populations necessitate personalized health education during antenatal visits and subsequent health campaigns in order to inform better prevention practices and, in turn, reduce the lingering chronicity of HBV infection in developing countries.

Keywords: behavioral skills, HBV infection, knowledge, perception, pregnant women, prevention practices

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Authors: Kangujam Monika, Kiranbala Devi Thokchom, Soibam Sandhyarani Devi

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Earthquake is a major natural hazard in India. Manipur, located in the North-Eastern Region of India, is one of the most affected location in the region prone to earthquakes since it lies in an area where Indian and Eurasian tectonic plates meet and is in seismic Zone V which is the most severe intensity zone, according to IS Code. Some recent earthquakes recorded in Manipur are M 6.7 epicenter at Tamenglong (January 4, 2016), M 5.2 epicenter at Churachandpur (February 24, 2017) and most recent M 4.4 epicenter at Thoubal (June 19, 2017). In these recent earthquakes, some houses and buildings were damaged, landslides were also occurred. A field study was carried out. An overview of the various causal factors involved in triggering of earthquake in Manipur has been discussed. It is found that improper planning, poor design, negligence, structural irregularities, poor quality materials, construction of foundation without proper site soil investigation and non-implementation of remedial measures, etc., are possibly the main causal factors for damage in Manipur during earthquake. The study also suggests, though the proper design of structure and foundation along with soil investigation, ground improvement methods, use of modern techniques of construction, counseling with engineer, mass awareness, etc., might be effective solution to control the hazard in many locations. An overview on the analysis pertaining to earthquake in Manipur together with on-going detailed site specific geotechnical investigation were presented.

Keywords: Manipur, earthquake, hazard, structure, soil

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Authors: Jemai Rabeb, Benhmidene Ali, Hidouri Khaoula, Chaouachi Bechir

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The diffusion-absorption refrigeration cycle consists of a generator bubble pump, an absorber, an evaporator and a condenser, and usually operates with ammonia/water/ hydrogen or helium as the working fluid. The aim of this paper is to study the stability problem a bubble pump. In fact instability can caused a reduction of bubble pump efficiency. To achieve this goal, we have simulated the behaviour of two-phase flow in a bubble pump by using a drift flow model. Equations of a drift flow model are formulated in the transitional regime, non-adiabatic condition and thermodynamic equilibrium between the liquid and vapour phases. Equations resolution allowed to define void fraction, and liquid and vapour velocities, as well as pressure and mixing enthalpy. Ammonia-water mixing is used as working fluid, where ammonia mass fraction in the inlet is 0.6. Present simulation is conducted out for a heating flux of 2 kW/m² to 5 kW/m² and bubble pump tube length of 1 m and 2.5 mm of inner diameter. Simulation results reveal oscillations of vapour and liquid velocities along time. Oscillations decrease with time and with heat flux. For sufficient time the steady state is established, it is characterised by constant liquid velocity and void fraction values. However, vapour velocity does not have the same behaviour, it increases for steady state too. On the other hand, pressure drop oscillations are studied.

Keywords: bubble pump, drift flow model, instability, simulation

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Authors: Lei Zhu, Nan Li

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Cold stamping has been widely applied in the automotive industry for the mass production of a great range of automotive panels. Predicting the springback to ensure the dimensional accuracy of the cold-stamped components is a critical step. The main approaches for the prediction and compensation of springback in cold stamping include running Finite Element (FE) simulations and conducting experiments, which require forming process expertise and can be time-consuming and expensive for the design of cold stamping tools. Machine learning technologies have been proven and successfully applied in learning complex system behaviours using presentative samples. These technologies exhibit the promising potential to be used as supporting design tools for metal forming technologies. This study, for the first time, presents a novel application of a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based surrogate model to predict the springback fields for variable U-shape cold bending geometries. A dataset is created based on the U-shape cold bending geometries and the corresponding FE simulations results. The dataset is then applied to train the CNN surrogate model. The result shows that the surrogate model can achieve near indistinguishable full-field predictions in real-time when compared with the FE simulation results. The application of CNN in efficient springback prediction can be adopted in industrial settings to aid both conceptual and final component designs for designers without having manufacturing knowledge.

Keywords: springback, cold stamping, convolutional neural networks, machine learning

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Authors: Haiu-Lan Chin, Yu-Fen Hsiao, Hua-Ying Chuang, Wei Lee

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An adult with intellectual disability generally has insufficient physical activity which is an important factor leading to premature weakness. Studies in recent years on frailty syndrome have accumulated substantial data about indicators of human aging, including unintentional weight loss, self-reported exhaustion, weakness, slow walking speed, and low physical activity. Of these indicators, hand-grip strength can be seen as a predictor of mortality, disability, complications, and increased length of hospital stay. Hand-grip strength in fact provides a comprehensive overview of one’s vitality. The research is about the investigation on hand-grip strength of adults with intellectual disabilities in facilities, institutions and workshops. The participants are 197 male adults (M=39.09±12.85 years old), and 114 female ones (M=35.80±8.2 years old) so far. The aim of the study is to figure out the performance of their hand-grip strength, and initiate the setting of training on hand-grip strength in their daily life which will decrease the weakening on their physical condition. Test items include weight, bone density, basal metabolic rate (BMR), static body balance except hand-grip strength. Hand-grip strength was measured by a hand dynamometer and classified as normal group ( ≧ 30 kg for male and ≧ 20 kg for female) and weak group ( < 30 kg for male, < 20 kg for female)The analysis includes descriptive statistics, and the indicators of grip strength fo the adults with intellectual disability. Though the research is still ongoing and the participants are increasing, the data indicates: (1) The correlation between hand-grip strength and degree of the intellectual disability (p ≦. 001), basal metabolic rate (p ≦ .001), and static body balance (p ≦ .01) as well. Nevertheless, there is no significant correlation between grip strength and basal metabolic rate which had been having significant correlation with hand-grip strength. (2) The difference between male and female subjects in hand-grip strength is significant, the hand-grip strength of male subjects (25.70±12.81 Kg) is much higher than female ones (16.30±8.89 Kg). Compared to the female counterparts, male participants indicate greater individual differences. And the proportion of weakness between male and female subjects is also different. (3) The regression indicates the main factors related to grip strength performance include degree of the intellectual disability, height, static body balance, training and weight sequentially. (4) There is significant difference on both hand-grip and static body balance between participants in facilities and workshops. The study supports the truth about the sex and gender differences in health. Nevertheless, the average hand-grip strength of left hand is higher than right hand in both male and female subjects. Moreover, 71.3% of male subjects and 64.2% of female subjects have better performance in their left hand-grip which is distinctive features especially in low degree of the intellectual disability.

Keywords: adult with intellectual disability, frailty syndrome, grip strength, physical condition

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Authors: Sirikwan Ponprateep, Anchalee Tassanakajon, Vichien Rimphanitchayakit

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A Kazal-type serine proteinase inhibitor, SPIPm2, was abundantly expressed in the hemocytes and secreted into shrimp plasma has anti-viral property against white spot syndrome virus (WSSV). To discover the molecular mechanism of antiviral activity, the binding assay showed that SPIPm2 bind to the components of viral particle and shrimp hemocyte. From our previous report, viral target protein of SPIPm2 was identified, namely WSV477 using yeast two-hybrid screening. WSV477 is an early gene product of WSSV and involved in viral propagation. In this study, the co-immunoprecipitation technique and Tandem Mass Spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) was used to identify the target protein of SPIPm2 from shrimp hemocyte. The target protein of SPIPm2 was cyclophilin A. In vertebrate, cyclophilin A or peptidylprolyl isomerase A was reported to be the immune suppressor interacted with cyclosporin A involved in immune defense response. The recombinant cyclophilin A from Penaeus monodon (rPmCypA) was produced in E.coli system and purified using Ni-NTA column to confirm the protein-protein interaction. In vitro pull-down assay showed the interaction between rSPIPm2 and rPmCypA. To study the biological function of these proteins, the expression analysis of immune gene in shrimp defense pathways will be investigated after rPmCypA administration.

Keywords: cyclophilin A, protein-protein interaction, Kazal-type serine proteinase inhibitor, Penaeus monodon

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Authors: Nisha Sharma, Mili Kaur, Ashutosh Halder, Seema Kaushal, Manoj Kumar, Manish Jain

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Purpose: To investigate microRNAs (miRNA) as an epigenomic etiological factor in idiopathic non-obstructive azoospermia (NOA). In order to achieve the same, an association was seen between occupational exposure to radiation, thermal, and chemical factors and idiopathic cases of non-obstructive azoospermia, and later, testicular differential miRNA expression profiling was done in exposure group NOA cases. Method: It is a prospective study in which 200 apparent idiopathic male factor infertility cases, who have been advised to undergo testicular fine needle aspiration (FNA) evaluation, are recruited. A detailed occupational history was taken to understand the possible type of exposure due to the nature and duration of work. A total of 26 patients were excluded upon XY-FISH and Yq microdeletion tests due to the presence of genetic causes of infertility, 6 hypospermatogeneis (HS), six Sertoli cell-only syndrome (SCOS), and six normospermatogeneis patients testicular FNA samples were used for RNA isolation followed by small RNA sequencing and nCounter miRNA expression analysis. Differential miRNA expression profile of HS and SCOS patients was done. A web-based tool, miRNet, was used to predict the interacting compounds or chemicals using the shortlisted miRNAs with high fold change. The major limitation encountered in this study was the insufficient quantity of testicular FNA sample used for total RNA isolation, which resulted in a low yield and RNA integrity number (RIN) value. Therefore, the number of RNA samples admissible for differential miRNA expression analysis was very small in comparison to the total number of patients recruited. Results: Differential expression analysis revealed 69 down-regulated and 40 up-regulated miRNAs in HS and 66 down-regulated and 33 up-regulated miRNAs in SCOS in comparison to normospermatogenesis controls. The miRNA interaction analysis using the miRNet tool showed that the differential expression profiles of HS and SCOS patients were associated with arsenic trioxide, bisphenol-A, calcium sulphate, lithium, and cadmium. These compounds are reproductive toxins and might be responsible for miRNA-mediated epigenetic deregulation leading to NOA. The association between occupational risk factor exposure and the non-exposure group of NOA patients was not statistically significant, with ꭓ2 (3, N= 178) = 6.70, p= 0.082. The association between individual exposure groups (radiation, thermal, and chemical) and various sub-types of NOA is also not significant, with ꭓ2 (9, N= 178) = 15.06, p= 0.089. Functional analysis of HS and SCOS patients' miRNA profiles revealed some important miR-family members in terms of male fertility. The miR-181 family plays a role in the differentiation of spermatogonia and spermatocytes, as well as the transcriptional regulation of haploid germ cells. The miR-34 family is expressed in spermatocytes and round spermatids and is involved in the regulation of SSCs differentiation. Conclusion: The reproductive toxins might adopt the miRNA-mediated mechanism of disease development in idiopathic cases of NOA. Chemical compound induced; miRNA-mediated epigenetic deregulation can give a future perspective on the etiopathogenesis of the disease.

Keywords: microRNA, non-obstructive azoospermia (NOA), occupational exposure, hypospermatogenesis (HS), Sertoli cell only syndrome (SCOS)

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Authors: Emmanuel S. Adeyanju

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This study assessed the effects of continuous training on anthropometric characteristics of adolescents in Kano, Nigeria. The anthropometric measures of per cent body fat (%BF), body mass index (BMI), conicity index (CI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) were selected because of their roles in increased adiposity and favourable cardiovascular disease (CVD) factor profiles in children and adolescence. The international standards and procedures were followed in all the measurements. A total of thirty (30) subjects (M=15; F=15), selected at random, were divided into two groups; one training (M=10; F=10) and the other control (M=5; F=5). Both groups were tested before training, at six (6) and 12 weeks in all the listed variables. The training group had 12 weeks continuous training which involved running round the standard 400 m track of the college following standard procedures; while the control group did not. The findings revealed significant sex-specific reductions in %BF (F=610.482 ˂ 0.05), BMI (F=73.860 ˂ 0.05), WHR (F=49.756 ˂ 0.05); however, no significant training effect on CI (F=1.855 ˃ 0.05) and WHR (F=1.956 ˃ 0.05) was found. Greater modifications found in females than in males (except in CI and WHR) due to training were probably related to their initial level of fitness and enzymatic modifications at subcellular level during training. The result also revealed significant relationship between the modifications in %BF, BMI and WHR but failed to establish any between CI and other adiposity measures. Thus, to avert the consequences of obesity and overweight, the declining fitness level of adolescents should be checked by ensuring they engaged in regular moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) programmes. Such a childhood habit of exercise developed early in life will have a carry-over value into adult life and improve the quality of adult population.

Keywords: adiposity, anthropometry, conicity, continuous training

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Authors: Manon Ghislain, Timothée Bonnet, Olivier Gimenez, Olivier Dehorter, Pierre-Yves Henry

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Climatic fluctuations affect the demography of animal populations, generating changes in population size, phenology, distribution and community assemblages. However, very few studies have identified the underlying demographic processes. For short-lived species, like common passerine birds, are these changes generated by changes in adult survival or in fecundity and recruitment? This study tests for an effect of annual climatic conditions (spring and winter) on annual, local adult survival at very large spatial (a country, 252 sites), temporal (25 years) and biological (25 species) scales. The Constant Effort Site ringing has allowed the collection of capture - mark - recapture data for 100 000 adult individuals since 1989, over metropolitan France, thus documenting annual, local survival rates of the most common passerine birds. We specifically developed a set of multi-year, multi-species, multi-site Bayesian models describing variations in local survival and recapture probabilities. This method allows for a statistically powerful hierarchical assessment (global versus species-specific) of the effects of climate variables on survival. A major part of between-year variations in survival rate was common to all species (74% of between-year variance), whereas only 26% of temporal variation was species-specific. Although changing spring climate is commonly invoked as a cause of population size fluctuations, spring climatic anomalies (mean precipitation or temperature for March-August) do not impact adult survival: only 1% of between-year variation of species survival is explained by spring climatic anomalies. However, for sedentary birds, winter climatic anomalies (North Atlantic Oscillation) had a significant, quadratic effect on adult survival, birds surviving less during intermediate years than during more extreme years. For migratory birds, we do not detect an effect of winter climatic anomalies (Sahel Rainfall). We will analyze the life history traits (migration, habitat, thermal range) that could explain a different sensitivity of species to winter climate anomalies. Overall, we conclude that changes in population sizes for passerine birds are unlikely to be the consequences of climate-driven mortality (or emigration) in spring but could be induced by other demographic parameters, like fecundity.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, capture-recapture, climate anomaly, constant effort sites scheme, passerine, seasons, survival

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