Search results for: wheat yield prediction
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4785

Search results for: wheat yield prediction

885 A Hybrid Block Multistep Method for Direct Numerical Integration of Fourth Order Initial Value Problems

Authors: Adamu S. Salawu, Ibrahim O. Isah

Abstract:

Direct solution to several forms of fourth-order ordinary differential equations is not easily obtained without first reducing them to a system of first-order equations. Thus, numerical methods are being developed with the underlying techniques in the literature, which seeks to approximate some classes of fourth-order initial value problems with admissible error bounds. Multistep methods present a great advantage of the ease of implementation but with a setback of several functions evaluation for every stage of implementation. However, hybrid methods conventionally show a slightly higher order of truncation for any k-step linear multistep method, with the possibility of obtaining solutions at off mesh points within the interval of solution. In the light of the foregoing, we propose the continuous form of a hybrid multistep method with Chebyshev polynomial as a basis function for the numerical integration of fourth-order initial value problems of ordinary differential equations. The basis function is interpolated and collocated at some points on the interval [0, 2] to yield a system of equations, which is solved to obtain the unknowns of the approximating polynomial. The continuous form obtained, its first and second derivatives are evaluated at carefully chosen points to obtain the proposed block method needed to directly approximate fourth-order initial value problems. The method is analyzed for convergence. Implementation of the method is done by conducting numerical experiments on some test problems. The outcome of the implementation of the method suggests that the method performs well on problems with oscillatory or trigonometric terms since the approximations at several points on the solution domain did not deviate too far from the theoretical solutions. The method also shows better performance compared with an existing hybrid method when implemented on a larger interval of solution.

Keywords: Chebyshev polynomial, collocation, hybrid multistep method, initial value problems, interpolation

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884 Effect of Cryogenic Pre-stretching on the Room Temperature Tensile Behavior of AZ61 Magnesium Alloy and Dominant Grain Growth Mechanisms During Subsequent Annealing

Authors: Umer Masood Chaudry, Hafiz Muhammad Rehan Tariq, Chung-soo Kim, Tea-sung Jun

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This study explored the influence of pre-stretching temperature on the microstructural characteristics and deformation behavior of AZ61 magnesium alloy and its implications on grain growth during subsequent annealing. AZ61 alloy was stretched to 5% plastic strain along rolling (RD) and transverse direction (TD) at room (RT) and cryogenic temperature (-150 oC, CT) followed by annealing at 320 oC for 1 h to investigate the twinning and dislocation evolution and its consequent effect on the flow stress, plastic strain and strain hardening rate. Compared to RT-stretched samples, significant improvement in yield stress, strain hardening rate and moderate reduction in elongation to failure were witnessed for CT-stretched samples along RD and TD. The subsequent EBSD analysis revealed the increased fraction of fine {10-12} twins and nucleation of multiple {10-12} twin variants caused by higher local stress concentration at the grain boundaries in CT-stretched samples as manifested by the kernel average misorientation. This higher twin fraction and twin-twin interaction imposed the strengthening by restricting the mean free path of dislocations, leading to higher flow stress and strain hardening rate. During annealing of the RT/CT-stretched samples, the residual strain energy and twin boundaries were decreased due to static recovery, leading to a coarse-grained twin-free microstructure. Strain induced boundary migration (SBIM) was found to be the predominant mechanism governing the grain growth during annealing via movement of high angle grain boundaries.

Keywords: magnesium, twinning, twinning variant selection, EBSD, cryogenic deformation

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883 Uterine Cervical Cancer; Early Treatment Assessment with T2- And Diffusion-Weighted MRI

Authors: Susanne Fridsten, Kristina Hellman, Anders Sundin, Lennart Blomqvist

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Background: Patients diagnosed with locally advanced cervical carcinoma are treated with definitive concomitant chemo-radiotherapy. Treatment failure occurs in 30-50% of patients with very poor prognoses. The treatment is standardized with risk for both over-and undertreatment. Consequently, there is a great need for biomarkers able to predict therapy outcomes to allow for individualized treatment. Aim: To explore the role of T2- and diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for early prediction of therapy outcome and the optimal time point for assessment. Methods: A pilot study including 15 patients with cervical carcinoma stage IIB-IIIB (FIGO 2009) undergoing definitive chemoradiotherapy. All patients underwent MRI four times, at baseline, 3 weeks, 5 weeks, and 12 weeks after treatment started. Tumour size, size change (∆size), visibility on diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI), apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and change of ADC (∆ADC) at the different time points were recorded. Results: 7/15 patients relapsed during the study period, referred to as "poor prognosis", PP, and the remaining eight patients are referred to "good prognosis", GP. The tumor size was larger at all time points for PP than for GP. The ∆size between any of the four-time points was the same for PP and GP patients. The sensitivity and specificity to predict prognostic group depending on a remaining tumor on DWI were highest at 5 weeks and 83% (5/6) and 63% (5/8), respectively. The combination of tumor size at baseline and remaining tumor on DWI at 5 weeks in ROC analysis reached an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.83. After 12 weeks, no remaining tumor was seen on DWI among patients with GP, as opposed to 2/7 PP patients. Adding ADC to the tumor size measurements did not improve the predictive value at any time point. Conclusion: A large tumor at baseline MRI combined with a remaining tumor on DWI at 5 weeks predicted a poor prognosis.

Keywords: chemoradiotherapy, diffusion-weighted imaging, magnetic resonance imaging, uterine cervical carcinoma

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882 Seed Dressing and Foliar Spray of Green Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) with Essential Oils and Disinfectants for Suppressing Root Rot and Wilt Incidence under Field Conditions

Authors: N. S. El-Mougy, M. M. Abdel-Kader, H. M. Abouelnasr

Abstract:

The efficacy of two essential oils applied as a bean seed dressing followed by seedlings foliar spray with four commercial disinfectants against root rot and wilt incidence was evaluated under field conditions. The essential oils, grape seed and peppermint oils and the disinfectants, Gold, Revarest, Klenva, Malva were applied. Chitosan and the fungicide Topsin-M were used as comparison treatment. Essential oils individually or combined with disinfectants were applied as a bean seed dressing. Furthermore, emerged bean plants were sprayed with the same treatments. Under laboratory conditions, growth inhibition effect was observed for the isolated, tested fungi R. solani and F. oxysporum when exposed to essential oils individually or combined with disinfectants. A high inhibitor effect was recorded for peppermint followed by grape seed oils. Concentrations of 1% and 2% of chitosan as well as Topsin M at 400 ppm showed complete reduction (100%) in the two fungal growths. Under field conditions, the obtained results showed that the applied treatments of chitosan had a superior effect on root rot and wilt disease incidence compared with other tested treatments. It was found that seed coating treatment provides good protection of emerged green bean seeds against the root pathogens attack compared with the fungicide and control treatments. Also, the application of seed dressing with essential oils accompanied by seedling spray demonstrated similar results. It was observed that essential oils had an enhancing effect against disease incidence when combined with disinfectants compared with their application. The obvious yield increase was significantly higher in all applied treatments than in fungicide and control.

Keywords: bean, disinfectants, essential oils, root rot, wilt

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881 Investigations on the Influence of Web Openings on the Load Bearing Behavior of Steel Beams

Authors: Felix Eyben, Simon Schaffrath, Markus Feldmann

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A building should maximize the potential for use through its design. Therefore, flexible use is always important when designing a steel structure. To create flexibility, steel beams with web openings are increasingly used, because these offer the advantage that cables, pipes and other technical equipment can easily be routed through without detours, allowing for more space-saving and aesthetically pleasing construction. This can also significantly reduce the height of ceiling systems. Until now, beams with web openings were not explicitly considered in the European standard. However, this is to be done with the new EN 1993-1-13, in which design rules for different opening forms are defined. In order to further develop the design concepts, beams with web openings under bending are therefore to be investigated in terms of damage mechanics as part of a German national research project aiming to optimize the verifications for steel structures based on a wider database and a validated damage prediction. For this purpose, first, fundamental factors influencing the load-bearing behavior of girders with web openings under bending load were investigated numerically without taking material damage into account. Various parameter studies were carried out for this purpose. For example, the factors under study were the opening shape, size and position as well as structural aspects as the span length, arrangement of stiffeners and loading situation. The load-bearing behavior is evaluated using resulting load-deformation curves. These results are compared with the design rules and critically analyzed. Experimental tests are also planned based on these results. Moreover, the implementation of damage mechanics in the form of the modified Bai-Wierzbicki model was examined. After the experimental tests will have been carried out, the numerical models are validated and further influencing factors will be investigated on the basis of parametric studies.

Keywords: damage mechanics, finite element, steel structures, web openings

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880 Improved Regression Relations Between Different Magnitude Types and the Moment Magnitude in the Western Balkan Earthquake Catalogue

Authors: Anila Xhahysa, Migena Ceyhan, Neki Kuka, Klajdi Qoshi, Damiano Koxhaj

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The seismic event catalog has been updated in the framework of a bilateral project supported by the Central European Investment Fund and with the extensive support of Global Earthquake Model Foundation to update Albania's national seismic hazard model. The earthquake catalogue prepared within this project covers the Western Balkan area limited by 38.0° - 48°N, 12.5° - 24.5°E and includes 41,806 earthquakes that occurred in the region between 510 BC and 2022. Since the moment magnitude characterizes the earthquake size accurately and the selected ground motion prediction equations for the seismic hazard assessment employ this scale, it was chosen as the uniform magnitude scale for the catalogue. Therefore, proxy values of moment magnitude had to be obtained by using new magnitude conversion equations between the local and other magnitude types to this unified scale. The Global Centroid Moment Tensor Catalogue was considered the most authoritative for moderate to large earthquakes for moment magnitude reports; hence it was used as a reference for calibrating other sources. The best fit was observed when compared to some regional agencies, whereas, with reports of moment magnitudes from Italy, Greece and Turkey, differences were observed in all magnitude ranges. For teleseismic magnitudes, to account for the non-linearity of the relationships, we used the exponential model for the derivation of the regression equations. The obtained regressions for the surface wave magnitude and short-period body-wave magnitude show considerable differences with Global Earthquake Model regression curves, especially for low magnitude ranges. Moreover, a conversion relation was obtained between the local magnitude of Albania and the corresponding moment magnitude as reported by the global and regional agencies. As errors were present in both variables, the Deming regression was used.

Keywords: regression, seismic catalogue, local magnitude, tele-seismic magnitude, moment magnitude

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879 Lung Cancer Detection and Multi Level Classification Using Discrete Wavelet Transform Approach

Authors: V. Veeraprathap, G. S. Harish, G. Narendra Kumar

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Uncontrolled growth of abnormal cells in the lung in the form of tumor can be either benign (non-cancerous) or malignant (cancerous). Patients with Lung Cancer (LC) have an average of five years life span expectancy provided diagnosis, detection and prediction, which reduces many treatment options to risk of invasive surgery increasing survival rate. Computed Tomography (CT), Positron Emission Tomography (PET), and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) for earlier detection of cancer are common. Gaussian filter along with median filter used for smoothing and noise removal, Histogram Equalization (HE) for image enhancement gives the best results without inviting further opinions. Lung cavities are extracted and the background portion other than two lung cavities is completely removed with right and left lungs segmented separately. Region properties measurements area, perimeter, diameter, centroid and eccentricity measured for the tumor segmented image, while texture is characterized by Gray-Level Co-occurrence Matrix (GLCM) functions, feature extraction provides Region of Interest (ROI) given as input to classifier. Two levels of classifications, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) is used for determining patient condition as normal or abnormal, while Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) is used for identifying the cancer stage is employed. Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT) algorithm is used for the main feature extraction leading to best efficiency. The developed technology finds encouraging results for real time information and on line detection for future research.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, ANN, discrete wavelet transform, DWT, gray-level co-occurrence matrix, GLCM, k-nearest neighbor, KNN, region of interest, ROI

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878 Electrochemical Biosensor for the Detection of Botrytis spp. in Temperate Legume Crops

Authors: Marzia Bilkiss, Muhammad J. A. Shiddiky, Mostafa K. Masud, Prabhakaran Sambasivam, Ido Bar, Jeremy Brownlie, Rebecca Ford

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A greater achievement in the Integrated Disease Management (IDM) to prevent the loss would result from early diagnosis and quantitation of the causal pathogen species for accurate and timely disease control. This could significantly reduce costs to the growers and reduce any flow on impacts to the environment from excessive chemical spraying. Necrotrophic fungal disease botrytis grey mould, caused by Botrytis cinerea and Botrytis fabae, significantly reduce temperate legume yield and grain quality during favourable environmental condition in Australia and worldwide. Several immunogenic and molecular probe-type protocols have been developed for their diagnosis, but these have varying levels of species-specificity, sensitivity, and consequent usefulness within the paddock. To substantially improve speed, accuracy, and sensitivity, advanced nanoparticle-based biosensor approaches have been developed. For this, two sets of primers were designed for both Botrytis cinerea and Botrytis fabae which have shown the species specificity with initial sensitivity of two genomic copies/µl in pure fungal backgrounds using multiplexed quantitative PCR. During further validation, quantitative PCR detected 100 spores on artificially infected legume leaves. Simultaneously an electro-catalytic assay was developed for both target fungal DNA using functionalised magnetic nanoparticles. This was extremely sensitive, able to detect a single spore within a raw total plant nucleic acid extract background. We believe that the translation of this technology to the field will enable quantitative assessment of pathogen load for future accurate decision support of informed botrytis grey mould management.

Keywords: biosensor, botrytis grey mould, sensitive, species specific

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877 In-silico Target Identification and Molecular Docking of Withaferin A and Withanolide D to Understand their Anticancer Therapeutic Potential

Authors: Devinder Kaur Sugga, Ekamdeep Kaur, Jaspreet Kaur, C. Rajesh, Preeti Rajesh, Harsimran Kaur

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Withanolides are steroidal lactones and are highly oxygenated phytoconstituents that can be developed as potential anti-carcinogenic agents. The two main withanolides, namely Withaferin A and Withanolides D, have been extensively studied for their pharmacological activities. Both these withanolides are present in the Withania somnifera (WS) leaves belonging to the family Solanaceae, also known as “Indian ginseng .”In this study effects of WS leaf extract on the MCF7 breast cancer cell line were investigated by performing a 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyl tetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay to evaluate the cytotoxic effects and in vitro wound-healing assay to study the effect on cancer cell migration. Our data suggest WS extracts have cytotoxic effects and are effective anti-migrating agents and thus can be a source of potential candidates for the development of potential agents against metastasis. Thus, it can be a source of potential candidates for the development of potential agents against metastasis. Insight into these results, the in-silico approach to identify the possible protein targets interacting with withanolides was taken. Protein kinase C alpha (PKCα) was among the selected 5 top-ranked target proteins identified by the Swiss Target Prediction tool. PKCα is known to promote the growth and invasion of cancer cells and is being evaluated as a prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target in clinically aggressive tumors. Molecular docking of Withaferin A and Withanolides D was performed using AutoDock Vina. Both the bioactive compounds interacted with PKCα. The targets predicted using this approach will serve as leads for the possible therapeutic potential of withanolides, the bioactive ingredients of WS extracts, as anti-cancer drugs.

Keywords: withania somnifera, withaferin A, withanolides D, PKCα

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876 Comparative Study on Productivity, Chemical Composition and Yield Quality of Some Alternative Crops in Romanian Organic Farming

Authors: Maria Toader, Gheorghe Valentin Roman, Alina Maria Ionescu

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Crops diversity and maintaining and enhancing the fertility of agricultural lands are basic principles of organic farming. With a wider range of crops in agroecosystem can improve the ability to control weeds, pests and diseases, and the performance of crops rotation and food safety. In this sense, the main objective of the research was to study the productivity and chemical composition of some alternative crops and their adaptability to soil and climatic conditions of the agricultural area in Southern Romania and to cultivation in the organic farming system. The alternative crops were: lentil (7 genotypes); five species of grain legumes (5 genotypes); four species of oil crops (5 genotypes). The seed production was, on average: 1343 kg/ha of lentil; 2500 kg/ha of field beans; 2400 kg/ha of chick peas and blackeyed peas; more than 2000 kg/ha of atzuki beans, over 1250 kg/ha of fenugreek; 2200 kg/ha of safflower; 570 kg/ha of oil pumpkin; 2150 kg/ha of oil flax; 1518 kg/ha of camelina. Regarding chemical composition, lentil seeds contained: 22.18% proteins, 3.03% lipids, 33.29% glucides, 4.00% minerals, and 259.97 kcal energy values. For field beans: 21.50% proteins, 4.40% lipids, 63.90% glucides, 5.85% minerals, 395.36 kcal energetic value. For chick peas: 21.23% proteins, 4.55% lipids, 53.00% glucides, 3.67% minerals, 348.22 kcal energetic value. For blackeyed peas: 23.30% proteins, 2.10% lipids, 68.10% glucides, 3.93% minerals, 350.14 kcal energetic value. For adzuki beans: 21.90% proteins, 2.60% lipids, 69.30% glucides, 4.10% minerals, 402.48 kcal energetic value. For fenugreek: 21.30% proteins, 4.65% lipids, 63.83% glucides, 5.69% minerals, 396.54 kcal energetic value. For safflower: 12.60% proteins, 28.37% lipids, 46.41% glucides, 3.60% minerals, 505.78 kcal energetic value. For camelina: 20.29% proteins, 31.68% lipids, 36.28% glucides, 4.29% minerals, 526.63 kcal energetic value. For oil pumpkin: 29.50% proteins, 36.92% lipids, 18.50% glucides, 5.41% minerals, 540.15 kcal energetic value. For oil flax: 22.56% proteins, 34.10% lipids, 27.73% glucides, 5.25% minerals, 558.45 kcal energetic value.

Keywords: adaptability, alternative crops, chemical composition, organic farming productivity

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875 Distribution of Cytochrome P450 Gene in Patients Taking Medical Cannabis

Authors: Naso Isaiah Thanavisuth

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Introduction: Medical cannabis can be used for treatment, including anorexia, pain, inflammation, multiple sclerosis, Parkinson's disease, epilepsy, cancer, and metabolic syndrome-related disorders. However, medical cannabis leads to adverse effects (AEs), which is delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC). In previous studies, the major of THC metabolism enzymes are CYP2C9. Especially, the variation of CYP2C9 gene consist of CYP2C9*2 on exon 3 (C430T) (Arg144Cys) and CYP2C9*3 on exon 7 (A1075C) (Ile359Leu) to decrease enzyme activity. Notwithstanding, there is no data describing whether the variant of CYP2C9 genes are a pharmacogenetics marker for prediction of THC-induced AEs in Thai patients. Objective: We want to investigate the association between CYP2C9 gene and THC-induced AEs in Thai patients. Method: We enrolled 39 Thai patients with medical cannabis treatment consisting of men and women who were classified by clinical data. The quality of DNA extraction was assessed by using NanoDrop ND-1000. The CYP2C9*2 and *3 genotyping were conducted using the TaqMan real time PCR assay (ABI, Foster City, CA, USA). Results: All Thai patients who received the medical cannabis consist of twenty four (61.54%) patients who were female and fifteen (38.46%) were male, with age range 27- 87 years. Moreover, the most AEs in Thai patients who were treated with medical cannabis between cases and controls were tachycardia, arrhythmia, dry mouth, and nausea. Particularly, thirteen (72.22%) medical cannabis-induced AEs were female and age range 33 – 69 years. In this study, none of the medical cannabis groups carried CYP2C9*2 variants in Thai patients. The CYP2C9*3 variants (*1/*3, intermediate metabolizer, IM) and (*3/*3, poor metabolizer, PM) were found, three of thirty nine (7.69%) and one of thirty nine (2.56%) , respectively. Conclusion: This is the first study to confirm the genetic polymorphism of CYP2C9 and medical cannabis-induced AEs in the Thai population. Although, our results indicates that there is no found the CYP2C9*2. However, the variation of CYP2C9 allele might serve as a pharmacogenetics marker for screening before initiating the therapy with medical cannabis for prevention of medical cannabis-induced AEs.

Keywords: CYP2C9, medical cannabis, adverse effects, THC, P450

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874 A Comparative Analysis of the Private and Social Benefit-Cost Ratios of Organic and Inorganic Rice Farming: Case Study of Smallholder Farmers in the Aveyime Community, Ghana

Authors: Jerome E. Abiemo, Takeshi Mizunoya

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The Aveyime community in the Volta region of Ghana is one of the major hubs for rice production. In the past, rice farmers applied organic pesticides to control pests, and compost as a soil amendment to improve fertility and productivity. However, the introduction of chemical pesticides and fertilizers have led many farmers to convert to inorganic system of rice production, without considering the social costs (e.g. groundwater contamination and health costs) related to the use of pesticides. The study estimates and compares the private and social BCRs of organic and inorganic systems of rice production. Both stratified and simple random sampling techniques were employed to select 300 organic and inorganic rice farmers and 50 pesticide applicators. The respondents were interviewed with pre-tested questionnaires. The Contingent Valuation Method (CVM) which elucidates organic farmers` Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) was employed to estimate the cost of groundwater contamination. The Cost of Illness (COI) analysis was used to estimate the health cost of pesticide-induced poisoning of applicators. The data collated, was analyzed with the aid of Microsoft excel. The study found that high private benefit (e.g. increase in farm yield and income) was the most influential factor for the rapid adoption of pesticides among rice farmers. The study also shows that the social costs of inorganic rice production were high. As such the social BCR of inorganic farming (0.2) was low as compared to organic farming (0.7). Based on the results, it was recommended that government should impose pesticide environmental tax, review current agricultural policies to favour organic farming and promote extension education to farmers on pesticide risk, to ensure agricultural and environmental sustainability.

Keywords: benefit-cost-ratio (BCR), inorganic farming, pesticides, social cost

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873 Econophysical Approach on Predictability of Financial Crisis: The 2001 Crisis of Turkey and Argentina Case

Authors: Arzu K. Kamberli, Tolga Ulusoy

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Technological developments and the resulting global communication have made the 21st century when large capitals are moved from one end to the other via a button. As a result, the flow of capital inflows has accelerated, and capital inflow has brought with it crisis-related infectiousness. Considering the irrational human behavior, the financial crisis in the world under the influence of the whole world has turned into the basic problem of the countries and increased the interest of the researchers in the reasons of the crisis and the period in which they lived. Therefore, the complex nature of the financial crises and its linearly unexplained structure have also been included in the new discipline, econophysics. As it is known, although financial crises have prediction mechanisms, there is no definite information. In this context, in this study, using the concept of electric field from the electrostatic part of physics, an early econophysical approach for global financial crises was studied. The aim is to define a model that can take place before the financial crises, identify financial fragility at an earlier stage and help public and private sector members, policy makers and economists with an econophysical approach. 2001 Turkey crisis has been assessed with data from Turkish Central Bank which is covered between 1992 to 2007, and for 2001 Argentina crisis, data was taken from IMF and the Central Bank of Argentina from 1997 to 2007. As an econophysical method, an analogy is used between the Gauss's law used in the calculation of the electric field and the forecasting of the financial crisis. The concept of Φ (Financial Flux) has been adopted for the pre-warning of the crisis by taking advantage of this analogy, which is based on currency movements and money mobility. For the first time used in this study Φ (Financial Flux) calculations obtained by the formula were analyzed by Matlab software, and in this context, in 2001 Turkey and Argentina Crisis for Φ (Financial Flux) crisis of values has been confirmed to give pre-warning.

Keywords: econophysics, financial crisis, Gauss's Law, physics

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872 From Dog to Dog: Potential Probiotic and Immunomodulatory Strains Isolated from Canine Milk

Authors: Paula Buldres, Jorge Toledo

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Objectives: This study aimed to characterize potential probiotic strains isolated from canine breast milk for use in dogs with enteropathies. Methodology: Six canine breast milk strains, one canine colostrum strain, and one control porcine breast milk strain were characterized. According to its functional properties of resistance to acids, different concentrations of bile salts, and pancreatin, its presumptive properties of safety and inhibitory effect on pathogens, non-cytotoxic characteristics, and adhesion to the intestine. The immunomodulatory effect of formulations with better probiotic characterization in vitro and in vivo was also analyzed. Results: Two strains characterized as potential probiotics were obtained, which corresponded to the canine strains (TUCO-16 and TUCO-17), presenting resistance to acidic pH, bile salts, and pancreatin, as well as an inhibitory effect on pathogenic Escherichia coli, Salmonella sp., and Clostridium perfringens. Strains TUCO-16 and TUCO-17 induced a significant increase in the expression of TNF-α and IL-8 in canine macrophages, respectively. Expression analyses of pattern recognition receptors in DH82 cells suggest that TUCO-16 and TUCO-17 might increase the TLR2 expression marker, and porcine strain (TUCO-4) increases the NOD2 expression marker. Based on the count obtained and the encapsulation yield, the best formulations correspond to FOS-Inulin for the TUCO-17 and TUCO-4 strains; Maltodextrin-Inulin for TUCO-16. All the strains are non-cytotoxic. The strain that showed the highest adhesion to intestinal epithelial cells was TUCO-17 with the FOS-Inulin formulation. On the other hand, the probiotics decreased the expression of pro-inflammatory markers in vivo, both in the intestine and in the spleen of mice. Conclusion: The combination of these three strains under study (TUCO-16, TUCO-17, and TUCO-4) would cover the probiotic properties in formulation and immunomodulation of all the markers under study.

Keywords: probiotics, gastrointestinal infec, dog, probiotic formulation, immunomodulatory probiotics

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871 Synthesis of Highly Stable Near-Infrared FAPbI₃ Perovskite Doped with 5-AVA and Its Applications in NIR Light-Emitting Diodes for Bioimaging

Authors: Nasrud Din, Fawad Saeed, Sajid Hussain, Rai Muhammad Dawood Sultan, Premkumar Sellan, Qasim Khan, Wei Lei

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The continuously increasing external quantum efficiencies of Perovskite light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have received significant interest in the scientific community. The need for monitoring and medical diagnostics has experienced a steady growth in recent years, primarily caused by older people and an increasing number of heart attacks, tumors, and cancer disorders among patients. The application of Perovskite near-infrared light-emitting diode (PeNIRLEDs) has exhibited considerable efficacy in bioimaging, particularly in the visualization and examination of blood arteries, blood clots, and tumors. PeNIRLEDs exhibit exciting potential in the field of blood vessel imaging because of their advantageous attributes, including improved depth penetration and less scattering in comparison to visible light. In this study, we synthesized FAPbI₃ Perovskite doped with different concentrations of 5-Aminovaleric acid (5-AVA) 1-6 mg. The incorporation of 5-AVA as a dopant during the FAPbI₃ Perovskite formation influences the FAPbI3 Perovskite’s structural and optical properties, improving its stability, photoluminescence efficiency, and charge transport characteristics. We found a resulting PL emission peak wavelength of 850 nm and bandwidth of 44 nm, along with a calculated quantum yield of 75%. The incorporation of 5-AVA-modified FAPbI₃ Perovskite into LEDs will show promising results, enhancing device efficiency, color purity, and stability. Making it suitable for various medical applications, including subcutaneous deep vein imaging, blood flow visualization, and tumor illumination.

Keywords: perovskite light-emitting diodes, deep vein imaging, blood flow visualization, tumor illumination

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870 Two-Way Reminder Systems to Support Activities of Daily Living for Adults with Cognitive Impairments: A Scoping Review

Authors: Julia Brudzinski, Ashley Croswell, Jade Mardin, Hannah Shilling, Jennifer Berg-Carnegie

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Adults with brain injuries and mental illnesses commonly experience cognitive impairments that interfere with their participation in activities of daily living (ADLs). Prior research states that electronic reminder systems can support adults with cognitive impairments; however, previous studies focus primarily on one-way reminder systems. Research on adults with chronic diseases reported that two-way reminder systems yield better health outcomes and disease self-management compared to one-way reminder systems. Literature was identified through systematically searching 7 databases and hand-searching relevant reference lists. Retrieved studies were independently screened and reviewed by at least two members of the research team. Data was extracted on study design, participant characteristics, intervention details, study objectives, outcome measures, and important results. 574 articles were screened and reviewed. Nine articles met all inclusion criteria and were included. The literature focused on three main areas: system feasibility (n=8), stakeholder satisfaction (n=6), and efficacy of the two-way reminder systems (n=6). Participants in eight of the studies had brain injuries, with participants in only one study having a mental illness (i.e., schizophrenia). Two-way reminder systems were used to support participation in a wide range of ADLs. The current literature on two-way reminder systems to support ADLs for adults with cognitive impairments focuses on feasibility, stakeholder satisfaction, and system efficacy. Future research should focus on addressing the barriers to accessing and implementing two-way reminder systems and identifying specific client characteristics that would benefit most from using these systems.

Keywords: brain injury, digital health, occupational therapy, activities of daily living, two-way reminder systems

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869 Synthesis, Characterization, Optical and Photophysical Properties of Pyrene-Labeled Ruthenium(Ii) Trisbipyridine Complex Cored Dendrimers

Authors: Mireille Vonlanthen, Pasquale Porcu, Ernesto Rivera

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Dendritic macromolecules are presenting unique physical and chemical properties. One of them is the faculty of transferring energy from a donor moiety introduced at the periphery to an acceptor moiety at the core, mimicking the antenna effect of the process of photosynthesis. The mechanism of energy transfer is based on the Förster resonance energy exchange and requires some overlap between the emission spectrum of the donor and the absorption spectrum of the acceptor. Since it requires a coupling of transition dipole but no overlap of the physical wavefunctions, the energy transfer by Förster mechanism can occur over quite long distances from 1 to a maximum of 10 nm. However, the efficiency of the transfer depends strongly on distance. The Förster radius is the distance at which 50% of the donor’s emission is deactivated by FRET. In this work, we synthesized and characterized a novel series of dendrimers bearing pyrene moieties at the periphery and a Ru (II) complex at the core. The optical and photophysical properties of these compounds were studied by absorption and fluorescence spectroscopy. Pyrene is a well-studied chromophore that has the particularity to present monomer as well as excimer fluorescence emission. The coordination compounds of Ru (II) are red emitters with low quantum yield and long excited lifetime. We observed an efficient singulet to singulet energy transfer in such constructs. Moreover, it is known that the energy of the MLCT emitting state of Ru (II) can be tuned to become almost isoenegetic with respect to the triplet state of pyrene, leading to an extended phosphorescence lifetime. Using dendrimers bearing pyrene moieties as ligands for Ru (II), we could combine the antenna effect of dendrimers as well as its protection effect to the quenching by dioxygen with lifetime increase due to triplet-triplet equilibrium.

Keywords: dendritic molecules, energy transfer, pyrene, ru-trisbipyridine complex

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868 Study of Virus/es Threatening Large Cardamom Cultivation in Sikkim and Darjeeling Hills of Northeast India

Authors: Dharmendra Pratap

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Large Cardamom (Amomum subulatum), family Zingiberaceae is an aromatic spice crop and has rich medicinal value. Large Cardamom is as synonymous to Sikkim as Tea is to Darjeeling. Since Sikkim alone contributes up to 88% of India's large cardamom production which is the world leader by producing over 50% of the global yield. However, the production of large cardamom has declined almost to half since last two decade. The economic losses have been attributed to two viral diseases namely, chirke and Foorkey. Chirke disease is characterized by light and dark green streaks on leaves. The affected leaves exhibit streak mosaic, which gradually coalesce, turn brown and eventually dry up. Excessive sprouting and formation of bushy dwarf clumps at the base of mother plants that gradually die characterize the foorkey disease. In our surveys in Sikkim–Darjeeling hill area during 2012-14, 40-45% of plants were found to be affected with foorkey disease and 10-15% with chirke. Mechanical and aphid transmission study showed banana as an alternate host for both the disease. For molecular identification, total genomic DNA and RNA was isolated from the infected leaf tissues and subjected to Rolling circle amplification (RCA) and RT-PCR respectively. The DNA concatamers produced in the RCA reaction were monomerized by different restriction enzymes and the bands corresponding to ~1 kb genomes were purified and cloned in the respective sites. The nucleotide sequencing results revealed the association of Nanovirus with the foorkey disease of large cardamom. DNA1 showed 74% identity with Replicase gene of FBNYV, DNA2 showed 77% identity with the NSP gene of BBTV and DNA3 showed 74% identity with CP gene of BBTV. The finding suggests the presence of a new species of nanovirus associated with foorkey disease of large cardamom in Sikkim and Darjeeling hills. The details of their epidemiology and other factors would be discussed.

Keywords: RCA, nanovirus, large cardamom, molecular virology and microbiology

Procedia PDF Downloads 485
867 Findings from an Access Improvement Project for Antiretroviral Therapy Uptake through Traditional Birth Attendants at Mother Theresa Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria

Authors: Daniel Afolayan, Christina Olawepo, Francis Olowookanga, Nguhemen Tingir, Olawale Fadare, John Oko

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In Nigeria, traditional birth attendants (TBAs) can play an important role in the prevention of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. However, their role in improving access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is unclear. Catholic Caritas Foundation of Nigeria (Caritas Nigeria) is an implementing agency supporting increased access to HIV testing and treatment services in Lagos state through health facilities including Mother Theresa Hospital. Despite intra-facility testing and community outreaches, ART uptake at Mother Theresa Hospital, Lagos was low with 6 individuals on antiretroviral drugs 3 months post-activation. This study explored improving access to ART through linkages with TBAs for ART uptake at the facility. Plan-Do-Study-Act model was used. The goal was to improve uptake of ART from 6 to 80 in 5 months (end of project year). Scanning revealed a network of 15 TBAs with potential as satellites for HIV testing. Caritas Nigeria linked the facility with 15 TBAs who were provided with HIV test kits and trained on HIV testing services for provider-initiated testing and outreaches. Weekly reports and referrals of positives were received, tracked and feedback given on testing yield. These TBAs serve individuals of various age and gender at their trado-medical centres. At the end of 5 months, HIV testing increased by 10,575 (78% from TBAs) and HIV positives obtained improved by 77 (44.2% from TBAs). 55 new individuals were enrolled and commenced on ART (61.8% from TBAs). There was a successful linkage of all clients with escort services due to incentives. Total uptake of ART was 61 (76.3% of target). Structured partnerships between TBAs and HIV care and treatment centers should be strengthened to improve access to ART.

Keywords: access improvement, antiretroviral therapy, traditional birth attendants, uptake

Procedia PDF Downloads 441
866 Modeling of Bipolar Charge Transport through Nanocomposite Films for Energy Storage

Authors: Meng H. Lean, Wei-Ping L. Chu

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The effects of ferroelectric nanofiller size, shape, loading, and polarization, on bipolar charge injection, transport, and recombination through amorphous and semicrystalline polymers are studied. A 3D particle-in-cell model extends the classical electrical double layer representation to treat ferroelectric nanoparticles. Metal-polymer charge injection assumes Schottky emission and Fowler-Nordheim tunneling, migration through field-dependent Poole-Frenkel mobility, and recombination with Monte Carlo selection based on collision probability. A boundary integral equation method is used for solution of the Poisson equation coupled with a second-order predictor-corrector scheme for robust time integration of the equations of motion. The stability criterion of the explicit algorithm conforms to the Courant-Friedrichs-Levy limit. Trajectories for charge that make it through the film are curvilinear paths that meander through the interspaces. Results indicate that charge transport behavior depends on nanoparticle polarization with anti-parallel orientation showing the highest leakage conduction and lowest level of charge trapping in the interaction zone. Simulation prediction of a size range of 80 to 100 nm to minimize attachment and maximize conduction is validated by theory. Attached charge fractions go from 2.2% to 97% as nanofiller size is decreased from 150 nm to 60 nm. Computed conductivity of 0.4 x 1014 S/cm is in agreement with published data for plastics. Charge attachment is increased with spheroids due to the increase in surface area, and especially so for oblate spheroids showing the influence of larger cross-sections. Charge attachment to nanofillers and nanocrystallites increase with vol.% loading or degree of crystallinity, and saturate at about 40 vol.%.

Keywords: nanocomposites, nanofillers, electrical double layer, bipolar charge transport

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865 Comparison of the Anthropometric Obesity Indices in Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease Risk: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Authors: Saeed Pourhassan, Nastaran Maghbouli

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Statement of the problem: The relationship between obesity and cardiovascular diseases has been studied widely(1). The distribution of fat tissue gained attention in relation to cardiovascular risk factors during lang-time research (2). American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) is widely and the most reliable tool to be used as a cardiovascular risk (CVR) assessment tool(3). This study aimed to determine which anthropometric index is better in discrimination of high CVR patients from low risks using ACC/AHA score in addition to finding the best index as a CVR predictor among both genders in different races and countries. Methodology & theoretical orientation: The literature in PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Web of Science, and Google Scholar were searched by two independent investigators using the keywords "anthropometric indices," "cardiovascular risk," and "obesity." The search strategy was limited to studies published prior to Jan 2022 as full-texts in the English language. Studies using ACC/AHA risk assessment tool as CVR and those consisted at least 2 anthropometric indices (ancient ones and novel ones) are included. Study characteristics and data were extracted. The relative risks were pooled with the use of the random-effect model. Analysis was repeated in subgroups. Findings: Pooled relative risk for 7 studies with 16,348 participants were 1.56 (1.35-1.72) for BMI, 1.67(1.36-1.83) for WC [waist circumference], 1.72 (1.54-1.89) for WHR [waist-to-hip ratio], 1.60 (1.44-1.78) for WHtR [waist-to-height ratio], 1.61 (1.37-1.82) for ABSI [A body shape index] and 1.63 (1.32-1.89) for CI [Conicity index]. Considering gender, WC among females and WHR among men gained the highest RR. The heterogeneity of studies was moderate (α²: 56%), which was not decreased by subgroup analysis. Some indices such as VAI and LAP were evaluated just in one study. Conclusion & significance: This meta-analysis showed WHR could predict CVR better in comparison to BMI or WHtR. Some new indices like CI and ABSI are less accurate than WHR and WC. Among women, WC seems to be a better choice to predict cardiovascular disease risk.

Keywords: obesity, cardiovascular disease, risk assessment, anthropometric indices

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864 Analysis of Dynamics Underlying the Observation Time Series by Using a Singular Spectrum Approach

Authors: O. Delage, H. Bencherif, T. Portafaix, A. Bourdier

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The main purpose of time series analysis is to learn about the dynamics behind some time ordered measurement data. Two approaches are used in the literature to get a better knowledge of the dynamics contained in observation data sequences. The first of these approaches concerns time series decomposition, which is an important analysis step allowing patterns and behaviors to be extracted as components providing insight into the mechanisms producing the time series. As in many cases, time series are short, noisy, and non-stationary. To provide components which are physically meaningful, methods such as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Empirical Wavelet Transform (EWT) or, more recently, Empirical Adaptive Wavelet Decomposition (EAWD) have been proposed. The second approach is to reconstruct the dynamics underlying the time series as a trajectory in state space by mapping a time series into a set of Rᵐ lag vectors by using the method of delays (MOD). Takens has proved that the trajectory obtained with the MOD technic is equivalent to the trajectory representing the dynamics behind the original time series. This work introduces the singular spectrum decomposition (SSD), which is a new adaptive method for decomposing non-linear and non-stationary time series in narrow-banded components. This method takes its origin from singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a nonparametric spectral estimation method used for the analysis and prediction of time series. As the first step of SSD is to constitute a trajectory matrix by embedding a one-dimensional time series into a set of lagged vectors, SSD can also be seen as a reconstruction method like MOD. We will first give a brief overview of the existing decomposition methods (EMD-EWT-EAWD). The SSD method will then be described in detail and applied to experimental time series of observations resulting from total columns of ozone measurements. The results obtained will be compared with those provided by the previously mentioned decomposition methods. We will also compare the reconstruction qualities of the observed dynamics obtained from the SSD and MOD methods.

Keywords: time series analysis, adaptive time series decomposition, wavelet, phase space reconstruction, singular spectrum analysis

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863 Analysis and Identification of Different Factors Affecting Students’ Performance Using a Correlation-Based Network Approach

Authors: Jeff Chak-Fu Wong, Tony Chun Yin Yip

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The transition from secondary school to university seems exciting for many first-year students but can be more challenging than expected. Enabling instructors to know students’ learning habits and styles enhances their understanding of the students’ learning backgrounds, allows teachers to provide better support for their students, and has therefore high potential to improve teaching quality and learning, especially in any mathematics-related courses. The aim of this research is to collect students’ data using online surveys, to analyze students’ factors using learning analytics and educational data mining and to discover the characteristics of the students at risk of falling behind in their studies based on students’ previous academic backgrounds and collected data. In this paper, we use correlation-based distance methods and mutual information for measuring student factor relationships. We then develop a factor network using the Minimum Spanning Tree method and consider further study for analyzing the topological properties of these networks using social network analysis tools. Under the framework of mutual information, two graph-based feature filtering methods, i.e., unsupervised and supervised infinite feature selection algorithms, are used to analyze the results for students’ data to rank and select the appropriate subsets of features and yield effective results in identifying the factors affecting students at risk of failing. This discovered knowledge may help students as well as instructors enhance educational quality by finding out possible under-performers at the beginning of the first semester and applying more special attention to them in order to help in their learning process and improve their learning outcomes.

Keywords: students' academic performance, correlation-based distance method, social network analysis, feature selection, graph-based feature filtering method

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862 Linking Temporal Changes of Climate Factors with Staple Cereal Yields in Southern Burkina Faso

Authors: Pius Borona, Cheikh Mbow, Issa Ouedraogo

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In the Sahel, climate variability has been associated with a complex web of direct and indirect impacts. This natural phenomenon has been an impediment to agro-pastoral communities who experience uncertainty while involving in farming activities which is also their key source of livelihood. In this scenario, the role of climate variability in influencing the performance, quantity and quality of staple cereals yields, vital for food and nutrition security has been a topic of importance. This response of crops and subsequent yield variability is also a subject of immense debate due to the complexity of crop development at different stages. This complexity is further compounded by influence of slowly changing non-climatic factors. With these challenges in mind, the present paper initially explores the occurrence of climate variability at an inter annual and inter decadal level in South Burkina Faso. This is evidenced by variation of the total annual rainfall and the number of rainy days among other climatic descriptors. Further, it is shown how district-scale cereal yields in the study area including maize, sorghum and millet casually associate variably to the inter-annual variation of selected climate variables. Statistical models show that the three cereals widely depict sensitivity to the length of the growing period and total dry days in the growing season. Maize yields on the other hand relate strongly to the rainfall amount variation (R2=51.8%) showing high moisture dependence during critical growth stages. Our conclusions emphasize on adoption of efficient water utilization platforms especially those that have evidently increased yields and strengthening of forecasts dissemination.

Keywords: climate variability, cereal yields, seasonality, rain fed farming, Burkina Faso, rainfall

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861 High Purity Lignin for Asphalt Applications: Using the Dawn Technology™ Wood Fractionation Process

Authors: Ed de Jong

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Avantium is a leading technology development company and a frontrunner in renewable chemistry. Avantium develops disruptive technologies that enable the production of sustainable high value products from renewable materials and actively seek out collaborations and partnerships with like-minded companies and academic institutions globally, to speed up introductions of chemical innovations in the marketplace. In addition, Avantium helps companies to accelerate their catalysis R&D to improve efficiencies and deliver increased sustainability, growth, and profits, by providing proprietary systems and services to this regard. Many chemical building blocks and materials can be produced from biomass, nowadays mainly from 1st generation based carbohydrates, but potential for competition with the human food chain leads brand-owners to look for strategies to transition from 1st to 2nd generation feedstock. The use of non-edible lignocellulosic feedstock is an equally attractive source to produce chemical intermediates and an important part of the solution addressing these global issues (Paris targets). Avantium’s Dawn Technology™ separates the glucose, mixed sugars, and lignin available in non-food agricultural and forestry residues such as wood chips, wheat straw, bagasse, empty fruit bunches or corn stover. The resulting very pure lignin is dense in energy and can be used for energy generation. However, such a material might preferably be deployed in higher added value applications. Bitumen, which is fossil based, are mostly used for paving applications. Traditional hot mix asphalt emits large quantities of the GHG’s CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O, which is unfavorable for obvious environmental reasons. Another challenge for the bitumen industry is that the petrochemical industry is becoming more and more efficient in breaking down higher chain hydrocarbons to lower chain hydrocarbons with higher added value than bitumen. This has a negative effect on the availability of bitumen. The asphalt market, as well as governments, are looking for alternatives with higher sustainability in terms of GHG emission. The usage of alternative sustainable binders, which can (partly) replace the bitumen, contributes to reduce GHG emissions and at the same time broadens the availability of binders. As lignin is a major component (around 25-30%) of lignocellulosic material, which includes terrestrial plants (e.g., trees, bushes, and grass) and agricultural residues (e.g., empty fruit bunches, corn stover, sugarcane bagasse, straw, etc.), it is globally highly available. The chemical structure shows resemblance with the structure of bitumen and could, therefore, be used as an alternative for bitumen in applications like roofing or asphalt. Applications such as the use of lignin in asphalt need both fundamental research as well as practical proof under relevant use conditions. From a fundamental point of view, rheological aspects, as well as mixing, are key criteria. From a practical point of view, behavior in real road conditions is key (how easy can the asphalt be prepared, how easy can it be applied on the road, what is the durability, etc.). The paper will discuss the fundamentals of the use of lignin as bitumen replacement as well as the status of the different demonstration projects in Europe using lignin as a partial bitumen replacement in asphalts and will especially present the results of using Dawn Technology™ lignin as partial replacement of bitumen.

Keywords: biorefinery, wood fractionation, lignin, asphalt, bitumen, sustainability

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860 Adequacy of Advanced Earthquake Intensity Measures for Estimation of Damage under Seismic Excitation with Arbitrary Orientation

Authors: Konstantinos G. Kostinakis, Manthos K. Papadopoulos, Asimina M. Athanatopoulou

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An important area of research in seismic risk analysis is the evaluation of expected seismic damage of structures under a specific earthquake ground motion. Several conventional intensity measures of ground motion have been used to estimate their damage potential to structures. Yet, none of them was proved to be able to predict adequately the seismic damage of any structural system. Therefore, alternative advanced intensity measures which take into account not only ground motion characteristics but also structural information have been proposed. The adequacy of a number of advanced earthquake intensity measures in prediction of structural damage of 3D R/C buildings under seismic excitation which attacks the building with arbitrary incident angle is investigated in the present paper. To achieve this purpose, a symmetric in plan and an asymmetric 5-story R/C building are studied. The two buildings are subjected to 20 bidirectional earthquake ground motions. The two horizontal accelerograms of each ground motion are applied along horizontal orthogonal axes forming 72 different angles with the structural axes. The response is computed by non-linear time history analysis. The structural damage is expressed in terms of the maximum interstory drift as well as the overall structural damage index. The values of the aforementioned seismic damage measures determined for incident angle 0° as well as their maximum values over all seismic incident angles are correlated with 9 structure-specific ground motion intensity measures. The research identified certain intensity measures which exhibited strong correlation with the seismic damage of the two buildings. However, their adequacy for estimation of the structural damage depends on the response parameter adopted. Furthermore, it was confirmed that the widely used spectral acceleration at the fundamental period of the structure is a good indicator of the expected earthquake damage level.

Keywords: damage indices, non-linear response, seismic excitation angle, structure-specific intensity measures

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859 An Atomistic Approach to Define Continuum Mechanical Quantities in One Dimensional Nanostructures at Finite Temperature

Authors: Smriti, Ajeet Kumar

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We present a variant of the Irving-Kirkwood procedure to obtain the microscopic expressions of the cross-section averaged continuum fields such as internal force and moment in one-dimensional nanostructures in the non-equilibrium setting. In one-dimensional continuum theories for slender bodies, we deal with quantities such as mass, linear momentum, angular momentum, and strain energy densities, all defined per unit length. These quantities are obtained by integrating the corresponding pointwise (per unit volume) quantities over the cross-section of the slender body. However, no well-defined cross-section exists for these nanostructures at finite temperature. We thus define the cross-section of a nanorod to be an infinite plane which is fixed in space even when time progresses and defines the above continuum quantities by integrating the pointwise microscopic quantities over this infinite plane. The method yields explicit expressions of both the potential and kinetic parts of the above quantities. We further specialize in these expressions for helically repeating one-dimensional nanostructures in order to use them in molecular dynamics study of extension, torsion, and bending of such nanostructures. As, the Irving-Kirkwood procedure does not yield expressions of stiffnesses, we resort to a thermodynamic equilibrium approach to obtain the expressions of axial force, twisting moment, bending moment, and the associated stiffnesses by taking the first and second derivatives of the Helmholtz free energy with respect to conjugate strain measures. The equilibrium approach yields expressions independent of kinetic terms. We then establish the equivalence of the expressions obtained using the two approaches. The derived expressions are used to understand the extension, torsion, and bending of single-walled carbon nanotubes at non-zero temperatures.

Keywords: thermoelasticity, molecular dynamics, one dimensional nanostructures, nanotube buckling

Procedia PDF Downloads 115
858 Development of a Predictive Model to Prevent Financial Crisis

Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

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857 Theoretical Prediction on the Lifetime of Sessile Evaporating Droplet in Blade Cooling

Authors: Yang Shen, Yongpan Cheng, Jinliang Xu

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The effective blade cooling is of great significance for improving the performance of turbine. The mist cooling emerges as the promising way compared with the transitional single-phase cooling. In the mist cooling, the injected droplet will evaporate rapidly, and cool down the blade surface due to the absorbed latent heat, hence the lifetime for evaporating droplet becomes critical for design of cooling passages for the blade. So far there have been extensive studies on the droplet evaporation, but usually the isothermal model is applied for most of the studies. Actually the surface cooling effect can affect the droplet evaporation greatly, it can prolong the droplet evaporation lifetime significantly. In our study, a new theoretical model for sessile droplet evaporation with surface cooling effect is built up in toroidal coordinate. Three evaporation modes are analyzed during the evaporation lifetime, include “Constant Contact Radius”(CCR) mode、“Constant Contact Angle”(CCA) mode and “stick-slip”(SS) mode. The dimensionless number E0 is introduced to indicate the strength of the evaporative cooling, it is defined based on the thermal properties of the liquid and the atmosphere. Our model can predict accurately the lifetime of evaporation by validating with available experimental data. Then the temporal variation of droplet volume, contact angle and contact radius are presented under CCR, CCA and SS mode, the following conclusions are obtained. 1) The larger the dimensionless number E0, the longer the lifetime of three evaporation cases is; 2) The droplet volume over time still follows “2/3 power law” in the CCA mode, as in the isothermal model without the cooling effect; 3) In the “SS” mode, the large transition contact angle can reduce the evaporation time in CCR mode, and increase the time in CCA mode, the overall lifetime will be increased; 4) The correction factor for predicting instantaneous volume of the droplet is derived to predict the droplet life time accurately. These findings may be of great significance to explore the dynamics and heat transfer of sessile droplet evaporation.

Keywords: blade cooling, droplet evaporation, lifetime, theoretical analysis

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856 Influence of Improved Roughage Quality and Period of Meal Termination on Digesta Load in the Digestive Organs of Goats

Authors: Rasheed A. Adebayo, Mehluli M. Moyo, Ignatius V. Nsahlai

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Ruminants are known to relish roughage for productivity but the effect of its quality on digesta load in rumen, omasum, abomasum and other distal organs of the digestive tract is yet unknown. Reticulorumen fill is a strong indicator for long-term control of intake in ruminants. As such, the measurement and prediction of digesta load in these compartments may be crucial to productivity in the ruminant industry. The current study aimed at determining the effect of (a) diet quality on digesta load in digestive organs of goats, and (b) period of meal termination on the reticulorumen fill and digesta load in other distal compartments of the digestive tract of goats. Goats were fed with urea-treated hay (UTH), urea-sprayed hay (USH) and non-treated hay (NTH). At the end of eight weeks of a feeding trial period, upon termination of a meal in the morning, afternoon or evening, all goats were slaughtered in random groups of three per day to measure reticulorumen fill and digesta loads in other distal compartments of the digestive tract. Both diet quality and period affected (P < 0.05) the measure of reticulorumen fill. However, reticulorumen fill in the evening was larger (P < 0.05) than afternoon, while afternoon was similar (P > 0.05) to morning. Also, diet quality affected (P < 0.05) the wet omasal digesta load, wet abomasum, dry abomasum and dry caecum digesta loads but did not affect (P > 0.05) both wet and dry digesta loads in other compartments of the digestive tract. Period of measurement did not affect (P > 0.05) the wet omasal digesta load, and both wet and dry digesta loads in other compartments of the digestive tract except wet abomasum digesta load (P < 0.05) and dry caecum digesta load (P < 0.05). Both wet and dry reticulorumen fill were correlated (P < 0.05) with omasum (r = 0.623) and (r = 0.723), respectively. In conclusion, reticulorumen fill of goats decreased by improving the roughage quality; and the period of meal termination and measurement of the fill is a key factor to the quantity of digesta load.

Keywords: digesta, goats, meal termination, reticulo-rumen fill

Procedia PDF Downloads 359