Search results for: emerging agent
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3320

Search results for: emerging agent

2960 Antifungal Protein ~35kDa Produced by Bacillus cereus Inhibits the Growth of Some Molds and Yeasts

Authors: Saleh H. Salmen, Sulaiman Ali Alharbi, Hany M. Yehia, Mohammad A. Khiyami, Milton Wainwright, Naiyf S. Alharbi, Arunachalam Chinnathambi

Abstract:

An antifungal protein synthesized by Bacillus cereus has been partially purified by the use of ammonium sulfate precipitation and Sephadex-G-200 column chromatography. The protein was produced from Bacillus cereus grown in potato Dextrose Broth Medium (PDB) at 30 ºC for 3 days at 100 rpm. The protein showed antagonistic effect against some fungi and yeasts. Crude extract from medium and semi-purified protein were tested in vitro against both fungi and yeasts using the disc diffusion method in order to detect the inhibitory effect of the protein. Zones of inhibition of the following diameter were found (mm) were Alternaria alternate (28), Rhodotorula glutinis (20), Fusarium sp. (16), Rhizopus sp. (15), Penicillium digitatum (13), Mucor sp. (13) and Aspergillus niger (10). The isolated protein was found to have a molecular weight of ~35kDa by sodium deodecyl sulfate-poly acrylamide gel electrophoresis. The data showed that the protein of Bacillus cereus has antifungal activity, a fact which points to the possibility of using it as a bio-control agent against some fungi, findings which emphasize the potential role of B. cereus as an important bio-control agent.

Keywords: bacillus cereus, ~35kDa protein, molds, yeasts

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2959 Preservation of Coconut Toddy Sediments as a Leavening Agent for Bakery Products

Authors: B. R. Madushan, S. B. Navaratne, I. Wickramasinge

Abstract:

Toddy sediment (TS) was cultured in a PDA medium to determine initial yeast load, and also it was undergone sun, shade, solar, dehumidified cold air (DCA) and hot air oven (at 400, 500 and 60oC) drying with a view to preserve viability of yeast. Thereafter, this study was conducted according to two factor factorial design in order to determine best preservation method. Therein the dried TS from the best drying method was taken and divided into two portions. One portion was mixed with 3: 7 ratio of TS: rice flour and the mixture was divided in to two again. While one portion was kept under in house condition the other was in a refrigerator. Same procedure was followed to the rest portion of TS too but it was at the same ratio of corn flour. All treatments were vacuum packed in triple laminate pouches and the best preservation method was determined in terms of leavening index (LI). The TS obtained from the best preservation method was used to make foods (bread and hopper) and organoleptic properties of it were evaluated against same of ordinary foods using sensory panel with a five point hedonic scale. Results revealed that yeast load or fresh TS was 58×106 CFU/g. The best drying method in preserving viability of yeast was DCA because LI of this treatment (96%) is higher than that of other three treatments. Organoleptic properties of foods prepared from best preservation method are as same as ordinary foods according to Duo trio test.

Keywords: biological leavening agent, coconut toddy, fermentation, yeast

Procedia PDF Downloads 336
2958 Comparitive Analysis of Islamic and Conventional Banking Systems in Terms of Profitability: A Study on Emerging Market Economies

Authors: Alimshan Faizulayev, Eralp Bektas, Abdul Ghafar Ismail, Bezhan Rustamov

Abstract:

This paper performs empirical analysis on determinants of profitability in Islamic and Conventional Banks. The main focus of this study is to evaluate and measure of financial performance of Islamic banking firms operating in Egypt, Iran, Malaysia, Pakistan, Turkey, UAE in contrast to Conventional ones in those countries. To evaluate empirically performance of the banks, various financial ratios are employed. We measure performance in terms of liquidity, profitability, solvency, and efficiency. In this work, t-test, F-test, and OLS analysis are used to make hypothesis tests. Our findings reveal that there are similarities and differences in profitability determinants of Islamic and Conventional banking firms. The cost to revenue ratio has inverse relationship with profitability indicators in both banking systems. However, there are differences in financial performances between Conventional Banks and Islamic banks which are found in overall picture of all banks in terms of net income margin.

Keywords: Islamic banking, conventional banking, GDP growth, emerging market economies

Procedia PDF Downloads 393
2957 Bounded Rational Heterogeneous Agents in Artificial Stock Markets: Literature Review and Research Direction

Authors: Talal Alsulaiman, Khaldoun Khashanah

Abstract:

In this paper, we provided a literature survey on the artificial stock problem (ASM). The paper began by exploring the complexity of the stock market and the needs for ASM. ASM aims to investigate the link between individual behaviors (micro level) and financial market dynamics (macro level). The variety of patterns at the macro level is a function of the AFM complexity. The financial market system is a complex system where the relationship between the micro and macro level cannot be captured analytically. Computational approaches, such as simulation, are expected to comprehend this connection. Agent-based simulation is a simulation technique commonly used to build AFMs. The paper proceeds by discussing the components of the ASM. We consider the roles of behavioral finance (BF) alongside the traditionally risk-averse assumption in the construction of agent's attributes. Also, the influence of social networks in the developing of agents’ interactions is addressed. Network topologies such as a small world, distance-based, and scale-free networks may be utilized to outline economic collaborations. In addition, the primary methods for developing agents learning and adaptive abilities have been summarized. These incorporated approach such as Genetic Algorithm, Genetic Programming, Artificial neural network and Reinforcement Learning. In addition, the most common statistical properties (the stylized facts) of stock that are used for calibration and validation of ASM are discussed. Besides, we have reviewed the major related previous studies and categorize the utilized approaches as a part of these studies. Finally, research directions and potential research questions are argued. The research directions of ASM may focus on the macro level by analyzing the market dynamic or on the micro level by investigating the wealth distributions of the agents.

Keywords: artificial stock markets, market dynamics, bounded rationality, agent based simulation, learning, interaction, social networks

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2956 EMS Providers' Ability and Willingness to Respond to Bioterrorism

Authors: Ryan Houser

Abstract:

Introduction: Previous studies have found that public health systems within the United States are inadequately prepared for an act of biological terrorism. As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, few studies have evaluated bioterrorism preparedness of Emergency Medical Services, even in the accelerating environment of biothreats. Methods: This study utilized an Internet-based survey to assess the level of preparedness and willingness to respond to a bioterrorism attack and identify factors that predict preparedness and willingness among Nebraska EMS (Emergency Medical Services ) providers. The survey was available for one month in 2021, during which 190 EMS providers responded to the survey. Results: Only 56.8% of providers were able to recognize an illness or injury as potentially resulting from exposure to a CBRN agent. The provider Clinical Competency levels range from a low of 13.6% (ability to initiate patient care within his/her professional scope of practice and arrange for prompt referral appropriate to the identified condition(s)) to a high of 74% (the ability to respond to an emergency within the emergency management system of his/her practice, institution and community). Only 10% of the respondents are both willing and able to effectively function in a bioterror environment. Discussion: In order to effectively prepare for and respond to a bioterrorist attack, all levels of the healthcare system need to have the clinical skills, knowledge, and abilities necessary to treat patients exposed. Policy changes and increased focus on training and drills are needed to ensure a prepared EMS system which is crucial to a resilient state. EMS entities need to be aware of the extent of their available workforce so that the country can be prepared for the increasing threat of bioterrorism or other novel emerging infectious disease outbreaks. A resilient nation relies on a prepared set of EMS providers who are willing to respond to biological terrorism events.

Keywords: bioterrorism, prehospital, EMS, disaster, emergency, medicine, preparedness, policy

Procedia PDF Downloads 151
2955 The Chewing Gum Confectionary Development for Oral Hygiene with Nine Hour Oral Antibacterial Activity

Authors: Yogesh Bacchaw, Ashish Dabade

Abstract:

Nowadays oral health is raising concern in society. Acid producing microorganisms changes the oral pH and creates a favorable environment for microbial growth. This growth not only promotes dental decay but also bad breath. Generally Recognized As Safe (GRAS) listed component was incorporated in chewing gum as an antimicrobial agent. The chewing gum produced exhibited up to 9 hours of antimicrobial activity against oral microflora. The toxicity of GRAS component per RACC value of chewing gum was negligible as compared to actual toxicity level of GRAS component. The antibacterial efficiency of chewing gum was tested by using total plate count (TPC) and colony forming unit (CFU). Nine hours were required to microflora to reach TPC/CFU of before chewing gum consumption. This chewing gum not only provides mouth freshening activity but also helps in lowering dental decay, bad breath, and enamel whitening.

Keywords: colony forming unit (CFU), chewing gum, generally recognized as safe (GRAS), microbial growth, microorganisms, oral health, RACC, total plate count (TPC), antimicrobial agent, enamel whitening, oral pH

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2954 Synthesis and Characterization of Renewable Resource Based Green Epoxy Coating

Authors: Sukanya Pradhan, Smita Mohanty, S. K Nayak

Abstract:

Plant oils are a great renewable source for being a reliable starting material to access new products with a wide spectrum of structural and functional variations. Even though petroleum products might also render the same, but it would also impose a high risk factor of environmental and health hazard. Since epoxidized vegetable oils are easily available, eco-compatible, non-toxic and renewable, hence these have drawn much of the attentions in the polymer industrial sector especially for the development of eco-friendly coating materials. In this study a waterborne epoxy coating was prepared from epoxidized soyabean oil by using triethanolamine. Because of its hydrophobic nature, it was a tough and tedius task to make it hydrophilic. The hydrophobic biobased epoxy was modified into waterborne epoxy by the help of a plant based anhydride as curing agent. Physico-mechanical, chemical resistance tests and thermal analysis of the green coating material were carried out which showed good physic-mechanical, chemical resistance properties as well as environment friendly. The complete characterization of the final material was done in terms of scratch hardness, gloss test, impact resistance, adhesion and bend test.

Keywords: epoxidized soybean oil, waterborne, curing agent, green coating

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2953 Development and Evaluation of Gastro Retentive Floating Tablets of Ayurvedic Vati Formulation

Authors: Imran Khan Pathan, Anil Bhandari, Peeyush K. Sharma, Rakesh K. Patel, Suresh Purohit

Abstract:

Floating tablets of Marichyadi Vati were developed with an aim to prolong its gastric residence time and increase the bioavailability of drug. Rapid gastrointestinal transit could result in incomplete drug release from the drug delivery system above the absorption zone leading to diminished efficacy of the administered dose. The tablets were prepared by wet granulation technique, using HPMC E50 LV act as Matrixing agent, Carbopol as floating enhancer, microcrystalline cellulose as binder, sodium bi carbonate as effervescent agent with other excipients. The simplex lattice design was used for selection of variables for tablets formulation. Formulation was optimized on the basis of floating time and in vitro drug release. The results showed that the floating lag time for optimized formulation was found to be 61 second with about 97.32 % of total drug release within 3 hours. The in vitro release profiles of drug from the formulation could be best expressed zero order with highest linearity r2 = 0.9943. It was concluded that the gastroretentive drug delivery system can be developed for Marichyadi Vati containing piperine to increase the residence time of the drug in the stomach and thereby increasing bioavailability.

Keywords: piperine, Marichyadi Vati, gastroretentive drug delivery, floating tablet

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2952 Entrants’ Knowledge of the Host Country’s Institutional Environments: A Critical Success Factor of International Projects in Emerging Least Developed Countries

Authors: Rameshwar Dahal, S. Ping Ho

Abstract:

Although the demand for infrastructure development forms a promising market opportunity for international firms, the dominance of informal institutions over formal ones, investors are facing extraordinary institutional challenges when investing in emerging Least Developed Countries (LDCs). We believe that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how well the entrants respond to the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. Which primarily depends on how much they learn about the host institution and what strategy they apply in response. In Nepal, almost all international or global infrastructure projects are financed by international financers, so the procurement process of the infrastructure projects financed by foreign agencies is guided by the policies and regulations of the financer. Because of limited resources and the financers’ demand, contractors and consults are procured internationally. Moreover, the resources, including but not limited to construction material, manpower, and equipment, also need to be imported. Therefore, the involvement of international companies as an entrant in global infrastructure projects of LDCs is obvious. In a global project (GP), participants from different geographical and institutional environments hold different beliefs and have disparate interests. Therefore, the entrants face the challenges exerted by the host institutional environments. The entrants must either adapt to the institutions prevailing in the environment or resist the institutional pressures. It is hypothesized that, in emerging LDCs, the project performance heavily depends on how much the entrants learn about the host institutional knowledge and how well they respond to the institutional environments. While it is impossible to generalize the phenomenon and contextual conditions because of their vast diversity, this study has answered why and how participants’ level of institutional knowledge impacts the project's implementation performance. To draw that conclusion, firstly, we explored two typical GPs from Nepal. For this study, the data were collected by conducting interviews and examining the secondary data, such as the project reports published by the financers, project data provided by interviewees, and news reports. In an event analysis, firstly, we identify the sources, causes, or nature of the institutional challenges; secondly, we analyze the entrant’s responses to the exerted challenges and evaluate the impacts of the responses on the overall project performance. In this study, at first, the events occurred during the project implementation process have a causal link with the local institutions that demand the entrants’ response are extracted. Secondly, each event is scrutinized as the critical success factor of the case project. Finally, it is crucially examined whether and what institutional knowledge in these events played a critical role in project success or failure. The results also provide insights into the crucial institutional knowledge in LDCs and the subsequent strategy implications for undertaking projects in LDCs.

Keywords: emerging countries, LDC, project management, project performance, institutional knowledge, institutional theory

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2951 Bioprotective Role of Soil Borne Bacillus Strains against Selected Fungal Pathogens of Agriculture Relevance

Authors: Asad Ali, Asif Jamal

Abstract:

The agriculture productivity losses due to microbial pathogens have been a serious issue in Pakistan and rest of the world. Present work was designed to isolate soil borne microorganisms having the antagonistic ability against notorious phytopathogens. From the initial collection of 23 bacterial isolates, two potent strains of Bacillus were screened on the basis of their comparative efficacy against devastating fungal pathogens. The strains AK-1 and AK-5 showed excellent inhibitory indexes against the majority of tested fungal strains. It was noted that both strains of Bacillus showed significant biocontrolling activity against Aspergillus flavus, Fusarium moniliforme, Colletotricum falcatum, Botrytis cinerea, Aspergillus niger, Fusarium oxysporum, Phythopthora capsici and Rhizopus oryzae. The strain AK-1 was efficient to suppress Aspergillus species and Rhizopus oryzae while AK-5 expressed significant antagonistic activity against Fusarium, Botrytis and Colletotricum species. On the basis of in vitro assay, it can be postulated that the Bacillus strains AK-1 and AK-5 can be used as bio-protective agent against various plant diseases. In addition, their applications as natural pesticides could be very helpful to prevent the adverse effects of chemical pesticides.

Keywords: bacillus species, biocontrol agent, biopesticides, phytopathogens

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2950 Extension of Moral Agency to Artificial Agents

Authors: Sofia Quaglia, Carmine Di Martino, Brendan Tierney

Abstract:

Artificial Intelligence (A.I.) constitutes various aspects of modern life, from the Machine Learning algorithms predicting the stocks on Wall streets to the killing of belligerents and innocents alike on the battlefield. Moreover, the end goal is to create autonomous A.I.; this means that the presence of humans in the decision-making process will be absent. The question comes naturally: when an A.I. does something wrong when its behavior is harmful to the community and its actions go against the law, which is to be held responsible? This research’s subject matter in A.I. and Robot Ethics focuses mainly on Robot Rights and its ultimate objective is to answer the questions: (i) What is the function of rights? (ii) Who is a right holder, what is personhood and the requirements needed to be a moral agent (therefore, accountable for responsibility)? (iii) Can an A.I. be a moral agent? (ontological requirements) and finally (iv) if it ought to be one (ethical implications). With the direction to answer this question, this research project was done via a collaboration between the School of Computer Science in the Technical University of Dublin that oversaw the technical aspects of this work, as well as the Department of Philosophy in the University of Milan, who supervised the philosophical framework and argumentation of the project. Firstly, it was found that all rights are positive and based on consensus; they change with time based on circumstances. Their function is to protect the social fabric and avoid dangerous situations. The same goes for the requirements considered necessary to be a moral agent: those are not absolute; in fact, they are constantly redesigned. Hence, the next logical step was to identify what requirements are regarded as fundamental in real-world judicial systems, comparing them to that of ones used in philosophy. Autonomy, free will, intentionality, consciousness and responsibility were identified as the requirements to be considered a moral agent. The work went on to build a symmetrical system between personhood and A.I. to enable the emergence of the ontological differences between the two. Each requirement is introduced, explained in the most relevant theories of contemporary philosophy, and observed in its manifestation in A.I. Finally, after completing the philosophical and technical analysis, conclusions were drawn. As underlined in the research questions, there are two issues regarding the assignment of moral agency to artificial agent: the first being that all the ontological requirements must be present and secondly being present or not, whether an A.I. ought to be considered as an artificial moral agent. From an ontological point of view, it is very hard to prove that an A.I. could be autonomous, free, intentional, conscious, and responsible. The philosophical accounts are often very theoretical and inconclusive, making it difficult to fully detect these requirements on an experimental level of demonstration. However, from an ethical point of view it makes sense to consider some A.I. as artificial moral agents, hence responsible for their own actions. When considering artificial agents as responsible, there can be applied already existing norms in our judicial system such as removing them from society, and re-educating them, in order to re-introduced them to society. This is in line with how the highest profile correctional facilities ought to work. Noticeably, this is a provisional conclusion and research must continue further. Nevertheless, the strength of the presented argument lies in its immediate applicability to real world scenarios. To refer to the aforementioned incidents, involving the murderer of innocents, when this thesis is applied it is possible to hold an A.I. accountable and responsible for its actions. This infers removing it from society by virtue of its un-usability, re-programming it and, only when properly functioning, re-introducing it successfully

Keywords: artificial agency, correctional system, ethics, natural agency, responsibility

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2949 Human Factors Considerations in New Generation Fighter Planes to Enhance Combat Effectiveness

Authors: Chitra Rajagopal, Indra Deo Kumar, Ruchi Joshi, Binoy Bhargavan

Abstract:

Role of fighter planes in modern network centric military warfare scenarios has changed significantly in the recent past. New generation fighter planes have multirole capability of engaging both air and ground targets with high precision. Multirole aircraft undertakes missions such as Air to Air combat, Air defense, Air to Surface role (including Air interdiction, Close air support, Maritime attack, Suppression and Destruction of enemy air defense), Reconnaissance, Electronic warfare missions, etc. Designers have primarily focused on development of technologies to enhance the combat performance of the fighter planes and very little attention is given to human factor aspects of technologies. Unique physical and psychological challenges are imposed on the pilots to meet operational requirements during these missions. Newly evolved technologies have enhanced aircraft performance in terms of its speed, firepower, stealth, electronic warfare, situational awareness, and vulnerability reduction capabilities. This paper highlights the impact of emerging technologies on human factors for various military operations and missions. Technologies such as ‘cooperative knowledge-based systems’ to aid pilot’s decision making in military conflict scenarios as well as simulation technologies to enhance human performance is also studied as a part of research work. Current and emerging pilot protection technologies and systems which form part of the integrated life support systems in new generation fighter planes is discussed. System safety analysis application to quantify the human reliability in military operations is also studied.

Keywords: combat effectiveness, emerging technologies, human factors, systems safety analysis

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2948 Green Natural Rubber Composites Reinforced with Synthetic Graphite: Effects of Reinforcing Agent on Film’s Mechanical Properties and Electrical Conductivity

Authors: Veerapat Kitsawat, Muenduen Phisalaphong

Abstract:

Green natural rubber (NR) composites reinforced with synthetic graphite, using alginate as thickening and dispersing agent, were developed to improve mechanical properties and electrical conductivity. The film fabrication was performed using a latex aqueous microdispersion process. The research found that up to 60 parts per hundred rubbers (phr) of graphite could be successfully integrated into the NR matrix without causing agglomeration and phase separation. Accordingly, the mechanical properties, in terms of tensile strength and Young’s modulus of the composite films, were significantly increased, while the elongation at break decreased with higher graphite loading. The reinforcement strongly improved the hydrophilicity of the composite films, resulting in a higher water absorption rate compared to the neat NR film. Moreover, the incorporation of synthetic graphite significantly improved the chemical resistance of the composite films when exposed to toluene. It is demonstrated that the electrical conductivity of the composite films was considerably enhanced with graphite loading. According to the obtained properties, the developed composites offer potential for further development as conductive substrate for electronic applications.

Keywords: alginate, composite, graphite, natural rubber

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2947 Adapting to College: Exploration of Psychological Well-Being, Coping, and Identity as Markers of Readiness

Authors: Marit D. Murry, Amy K. Marks

Abstract:

The transition to college is a critical period that affords abundant opportunities for growth in conjunction with novel challenges for emerging adults. During this time, emerging adults are garnering experiences and acquiring hosts of new information that they are required to synthesize and use to inform life-shaping decisions. This stage is characterized by instability and exploration, which necessitates a diverse set of coping skills to successfully navigate and positively adapt to their evolving environment. However, important sociocultural factors result in differences that occur developmentally for minority emerging adults (i.e., emerging adults with an identity that has been or is marginalized). While the transition to college holds vast potential, not all are afforded the same chances, and many individuals enter into this stage at varying degrees of readiness. Understanding the nuance and diversity of student preparedness for college and contextualizing these factors will better equip systems to support incoming students. Emerging adulthood for ethnic, racial minority students presents itself as an opportunity for growth and resiliency in the face of systemic adversity. Ethnic, racial identity (ERI) is defined as an identity that develops as a function of one’s ethnic-racial group membership. Research continues to demonstrate ERI as a resilience factor that promotes positive adjustment in young adulthood. Adaptive coping responses (e.g., engaging in help-seeking behavior, drawing on personal and community resources) have been identified as possible mechanisms through which ERI buffers youth against stressful life events, including discrimination. Additionally, trait mindfulness has been identified as a significant predictor of general psychological health, and mindfulness practice has been shown to be a self-regulatory strategy that promotes healthy stress responses and adaptive coping strategy selection. The current study employed a person-centered approach to explore emerging patterns across ethnic identity development and psychological well-being criterion variables among college freshmen. Data from 283 incoming college freshmen at Northeastern University were analyzed. The Brief COPE Acceptance and Emotional Support scales, the Five Factor Mindfulness Questionnaire, and MIEM Exploration and Affirmation measures were used to inform the cluster profiles. The TwoStep auto-clustering algorithm revealed an optimal three-cluster solution (BIC = 848.49), which classified 92.6% (n = 262) of participants in the sample into one of the three clusters. The clusters were characterized as ‘Mixed Adjustment’, ‘Lowest Adjustment’, and ‘Moderate Adjustment.’ Cluster composition varied significantly by ethnicity X² (2, N = 262) = 7.74 (p = .021) and gender X² (2, N = 259) = 10.40 (p = .034). The ‘Lowest Adjustment’ cluster contained the highest proportion of students of color, 41% (n = 32), and male-identifying students, 44.2% (n = 34). Follow-up analyses showed higher ERI exploration in ‘Moderate Adjustment’ cluster members, also reported higher levels of psychological distress, with significantly elevated depression scores (p = .011), psychological diagnoses of depression (p = .013), anxiety (p = .005) and psychiatric disorders (p = .025). Supporting prior research, students engaging with identity exploration processes often endure more psychological distress. These results indicate that students undergoing identity development may require more socialization and different services beyond normal strategies.

Keywords: adjustment, coping, college, emerging adulthood, ethnic-racial identity, psychological well-being, resilience

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2946 Behavioral Patterns of Adopting Digitalized Services (E-Sport versus Sports Spectating) Using Agent-Based Modeling

Authors: Justyna P. Majewska, Szymon M. Truskolaski

Abstract:

The growing importance of digitalized services in the so-called new economy, including the e-sports industry, can be observed recently. Various demographic or technological changes lead consumers to modify their needs, not regarding the services themselves but the method of their application (attracting customers, forms of payment, new content, etc.). In the case of leisure-related to competitive spectating activities, there is a growing need to participate in events whose content is not sports competitions but computer games challenge – e-sport. The literature in this area so far focuses on determining the number of e-sport fans with elements of a simple statistical description (mainly concerning demographic characteristics such as age, gender, place of residence). Meanwhile, the development of the industry is influenced by a combination of many different, intertwined demographic, personality and psychosocial characteristics of customers, as well as the characteristics of their environment. Therefore, there is a need for a deeper recognition of the determinants of the behavioral patterns upon selecting digitalized services by customers, which, in the absence of available large data sets, can be achieved by using econometric simulations – multi-agent modeling. The cognitive aim of the study is to reveal internal and external determinants of behavioral patterns of customers taking into account various variants of economic development (the pace of digitization and technological development, socio-demographic changes, etc.). In the paper, an agent-based model with heterogeneous agents (characteristics of customers themselves and their environment) was developed, which allowed identifying a three-stage development scenario: i) initial interest, ii) standardization, and iii) full professionalization. The probabilities regarding the transition process were estimated using the Method of Simulated Moments. The estimation of the agent-based model parameters and sensitivity analysis reveals crucial factors that have driven a rising trend in e-sport spectating and, in a wider perspective, the development of digitalized services. Among the psychosocial characteristics of customers, they are the level of familiarization with the rules of games as well as sports disciplines, active and passive participation history and individual perception of challenging activities. Environmental factors include general reception of games, number and level of recognition of community builders and the level of technological development of streaming as well as community building platforms. However, the crucial factor underlying the good predictive power of the model is the level of professionalization. While in the initial interest phase, the entry barriers for new customers are high. They decrease during the phase of standardization and increase again in the phase of full professionalization when new customers perceive participation history inaccessible. In this case, they are prone to switch to new methods of service application – in the case of e-sport vs. sports to new content and more modern methods of its delivery. In a wider context, the findings in the paper support the idea of a life cycle of services regarding methods of their application from “traditional” to digitalized.

Keywords: agent-based modeling, digitalized services, e-sport, spectators motives

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2945 Mechanisms Involved in Biological Control of Fusarium Wilt

Authors: Bensaid Fatiha

Abstract:

The objective of our present work is the description of the antagonistic capacities of one strain of Pseudomonas fluorescens and the nonpathogenic fungic isolate Fusarium oxysporum against phytopathogenic agent Fusarium oxysporum F. Sp. lycopersici. This work has been achieved in two main parts: the first is interested on the in vitro antagonistic activities; the second was interested to study the soil receptiveness of fusarium wilt tomato. The use of strain of fluorescent Pseudomonas and a non-pathogenic strain of F. oxysporum in the different antagonism tests, has allowed assuring a certain bio-protection from the plants of tomatoes opposite to F. oxysporum F. Sp. lycopersici, agent of a wilt of tomato. These antagonistic have shown a substantial in vitro antagonistic activity on the three mediums (KB, PDA, KB+PDA) against F. oxysporum F. Sp. lycopersici, by inhibiting its growth mycelium with rate of inhibition going until 80 % with non-pathogen of Fusarium oxysporum and 60 % with strain of fluorescens Pseudomonas. Soil microbial balance, between the antagonistic population and that of pathogenic, can be modulated through microbiological variations or abiotic additives influencing directly or indirectly the metabolic behavior microbial. In this experiment, addition of glucose or EDTA, could increase or decrease the resistance of soil by activation of pathogenic or antagonists, as a result of modification and modulation in their metabolic activities.

Keywords: fluorescents, nonpathogenic, fusarium oxysporum, fusarium wilt, antagonism, biological control, soil receptivity

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2944 An Empirical Study on Employees’ Theft Behavior in Insurance Industry

Authors: B. Khorsandi Talab, M. Kordi

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It is highly deplorable that every year, theft behavior among employees of the insurance industry is growing throughout the world. A very significant source of contraction (despite many costly technological and widespread security measures) needs to be addressed and prevented. Employee and agent theft cannot be ignored as it causes significant losses to employers. This study investigates the workplace factors that affect the insurance employee and agent theft behavior. Although identifying theft is difficult, this study will help employers to further understand employees’ theft behavior. This study was conducted in two service small and medium organizations (two branches of insurance companies) in ALBORZ’s capital city, KARAJ. Data has been collected via questionnaire from 30 employees and agents consisting employees and supervisors of branches and agencies. According to the results, it must be acknowledged that compensation, organizational justice, internal control systems, penalties and personal characteristics were associated with employees' theft behavior, it is despite the fact that, no effect could be assumed for organizational ethics and requirement in this case. Nevertheless, poor financial status cannot be considered as the driving factor in pushing employees to steal property as well as increasing their theft behavior. As mentioned earlier, the purpose of this study was to determine the factors contributing to employees’ theft (insurance employees and agencies) behavior in insurance organizations in Karaj.

Keywords: service theft, employee theft behavior, work theft, insurance agency, SMEs

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2943 Reconfigurable Consensus Achievement of Multi Agent Systems Subject to Actuator Faults in a Leaderless Architecture

Authors: F. Amirarfaei, K. Khorasani

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In this paper, reconfigurable consensus achievement of a team of agents with marginally stable linear dynamics and single input channel has been considered. The control algorithm is based on a first order linear protocol. After occurrence of a LOE fault in one of the actuators, using the imperfect information of the effectiveness of the actuators from fault detection and identification module, the control gain is redesigned in a way to still reach consensus. The idea is based on the modeling of change in effectiveness as change of Laplacian matrix. Then as special cases of this class of systems, a team of single integrators as well as double integrators are considered and their behavior subject to a LOE fault is considered. The well-known relative measurements consensus protocol is applied to a leaderless team of single integrator as well as double integrator systems, and Gersgorin disk theorem is employed to determine whether fault occurrence has an effect on system stability and team consensus achievement or not. The analyses show that loss of effectiveness fault in actuator(s) of integrator systems affects neither system stability nor consensus achievement.

Keywords: multi-agent system, actuator fault, stability analysis, consensus achievement

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2942 Antimutagenic Activity of a Protein, Lectin Fraction from Urtica Dioica L.

Authors: Nijole Savickiene, Antonella Di Sotto, Gabriela Mazzanti, Rasa Starselskyte, Silvia Di Giacomo, Annabella Vitalone

Abstract:

Plant lectins are non-enzymic and non-immune origin proteins that specifically recognize and bind to various sugar structures and possess the activity to agglutinate cells and/or precipitate polysaccharides and glycoconjugates. The emerging evidences showed that plant lectins contribute not only to tumour cell recognition but also to cell adhesion and localization, to signal transduction, to mitogenic cytotoxicity and apoptosis. Among chitin-binding lectins, the Urtica dioica agglutinin (UDA), which is a complex of different isoforms, has been poorly studied for its biological activity. In this context and according to the increasing interest for lectins as novel antitumor drugs, present paper aimed at evaluating the potential antimutagenic activity of a lectin-like glycoprotein-enriched fraction from aerial part of Urtica dioica L. Aim: to evaluate the potential chemopreventive properties of a protein - lectin fraction from the aerial part of Urtica dioica. Materials and methods: Protein – lectin fraction has been tested for the antimutagenic activity in bacteria (50–800 mg/plate; Ames test by the preincubation method) and for the cytotoxicity on human hepatoma HepG2 cells (0.06–2 mg/mL; 24 and 48 h incubation). Results: Protein – lectin fraction from stinging nettle was not cytotoxic on HepG2 cells up to 2 mg/mL; conversely, it exhibited a strong antimutagenic activity against the mutagen 2-aminoanthracene (2AA) in all strains tested (maximum inhibition of 56.78 and 61% in TA98, TA100, and WP2uvrA strains, respectively, at 800 mg/plate). Discussion and conclusions: Protein – lectin fraction from Urtica dioica L. possesses antimutagenic and radical scavenging properties. Being 2AA a pro-carcinogenic agent, we hypothesize that the antimutagenicity of it can be due to the inhibition of CYP450-isoenzymes, involved in the mutagen bioactivation.

Keywords: lectins, antimutagenicity, chemoprevention, Urtica dioica

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2941 The Synthesis and Characterization of Highly Water-Soluble Silane Coupling Agents for Increasing Silica Filler Content in Styrene-Butadiene Rubber

Authors: Jun Choi, Bo Ram Lee, Ji Hye Choi, Jung Soo Kim, No-Hyung Park, Dong Hyun Kim

Abstract:

The synthetic rubber compound, which is widely used as the core material for automobile tire industry, is manufactured by mixing styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and organic/inorganic fillers. It is known that the most important factor for the physical properties of rubber compound is the interaction between the filler and the rubber, which affects the rotational, braking and abrasion resistance. Silica filler has hydrophilic groups such as a silanol group on their surface which has a low affinity with hydrophobic rubbers. In order to solve this problem, researches on an efficient silane coupling agent (SCA) has been continuously carried out. In this study, highly water-soluble SCAs which are expected to show higher hydrolysis efficiency were synthesized. The hydrophobization process of the silica with the prepared SCAs was economical and environment-friendly. The SCAs structures were analysed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC/MS) and nuclear magnetic resonance (1H-NMR) spectroscopy. In addition, their hydrolysis efficiency and condensation side reaction in SBR wet master batch were examined by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR) and gel permeation chromatography (GPC), respectively.

Keywords: rubber, silane coupling agent, synthesis, water-soluble

Procedia PDF Downloads 288
2940 Developing Dynamic Capabilities: The Case of Western Subsidiaries in Emerging Market

Authors: O. A. Adeyemi, M. O. Idris, W. A. Oke, O. T. Olorode, S. O. Alayande, A. E. Adeoye

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the process of capability building at subsidiary level and the challenges to such process. The relevance of external factors for capability development, have not been explicitly addressed in empirical studies. Though, internal factors, acting as enablers, have been more extensively studied. With reference to external factors, subsidiaries are actively influenced by specific characteristics of the host country, implying a need to become fully immersed in local culture and practices. Specifically, in MNCs, there has been a widespread trend in management practice to increase subsidiary autonomy,  with subsidiary managers being encouraged to act entrepreneurially, and to take advantage of host country specificity. As such, it could be proposed that: P1: The degree at which subsidiary management is connected to the host country, will positively influence the capability development process. Dynamic capabilities reside to a large measure with the subsidiary management team, but are impacted by the organizational processes, systems and structures that the MNC headquarter has designed to manage its business. At the subsidiary level, the weight of the subsidiary in the network, its initiative-taking and its profile building increase the supportive attention of the HQs and are relevant to the success of the process of capability building. Therefore, our second proposition is that: P2: Subsidiary role and HQ support are relevant elements in capability development at the subsidiary level. Design/Methodology/Approach: This present study will adopt the multiple case studies approach. That is because a case study research is relevant when addressing issues without known empirical evidences or with little developed prior theory. The key definitions and literature sources directly connected with operations of western subsidiaries in emerging markets, such as China, are well established. A qualitative approach, i.e., case studies of three western subsidiaries, will be adopted. The companies have similar products, they have operations in China, and both of them are mature in their internationalization process. Interviews with key informants, annual reports, press releases, media materials, presentation material to customers and stakeholders, and other company documents will be used as data sources. Findings: Western Subsidiaries in Emerging Market operate in a way substantially different from those in the West. What are the conditions initiating the outsourcing of operations? The paper will discuss and present two relevant propositions guiding that process. Practical Implications: MNCs headquarter should be aware of the potential for capability development at the subsidiary level. This increased awareness could induce consideration in headquarter about the possible ways of encouraging such known capability development and how to leverage these capabilities for better MNC headquarter and/or subsidiary performance. Originality/Value: The paper is expected to contribute on the theme: drivers of subsidiary performance with focus on emerging market. In particular, it will show how some external conditions could promote a capability-building process within subsidiaries.

Keywords: case studies, dynamic capability, emerging market, subsidiary

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2939 Interpreter Scholarship Program That Improves Language Services in New South Wales: A Participatory Action Research Approach

Authors: Carly Copolov, Rema Nazha, Sahba C. Delshad, George Bisas

Abstract:

In New South Wales (NSW), Australia, we speak more than 275 languages and dialects. Interpreters play an indispensable role in our multicultural society by ensuring the people of NSW all enjoy the same opportunities. The NSW Government offers scholarships to enable people who speak in-demand and high priority languages to become eligible to be practicing interpreters. The NSW Interpreter Scholarship Program was launched in January 2019, targeting priority languages from new and emerging, as well as existing language communities. The program offers fully-funded scholarships to study at Technical and Further Education (TAFE), receive National Accreditation Authority for Translators and Interpreters (NAATI) certification, and be mentored and gain employment with the interpreter panel of Multicultural NSW. A Participatory Action Research approach was engaged to challenge the current system for people to become practicing interpreters in NSW. There were over 800 metro Sydney applications and close to 200 regional applications. Three courses were run through TAFE NSW (2 in metro Sydney and 1 in regional NSW). Thirty-nine students graduated from the program in 2019. The first metro Sydney location had 18 graduates complete the course in Assyrian, Burmese, Chaldean, Kurdish-Kurmanji, Nepali, and Tibetan. The second metro Sydney location had 9 graduates complete the course in Tongan, Kirundi, Mongolian and Italian. The regional location had 12 graduates who complete the course from new emerging language communities such as Kurdish-Kurmanji, Burmese, Zomi Chin, Hakha Chin, and Tigrinya. The findings showed that students were very positive about the program as the large majority said they were satisfied with the course content, they felt prepared for the NAATI test at the conclusion of the course, and they would definitely recommend the program to their friends. Also, 18 students from the 2019 cohort signed up to receive further mentoring by experienced interpreters. In 2020 it is anticipated that 3 courses will be run through TAFE NSW (2 in regional NSW and 1 in metro Sydney) to reflect the needs of new emerging language communities settling in regional areas. In conclusion, it has been demonstrated that the NSW Interpreter Scholarship Program improves the supply, quality, and use of language services in NSW, Australia, so that people who speak in-demand and high priority languages are ensured better access to crucial government services

Keywords: interpreting, emerging communities, scholarship program, Sydney

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2938 Historical Metaphors in Insurance: A Journey

Authors: Anjuman Antil, Anuj Kapoor, Neha Saini

Abstract:

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to study the evolution of insurance in India and the world. The paper also traced the historical basis of life insurance in the world and how it emerged as a major sector in India’s economy. The promotional strategies and distribution channel of top three companies in the Indian insurance sector are also discussed. Design/methodology/approach: The paper examined the secondary data which includes the reports issued by Insurance Regulatory Authority of India, websites of companies, books, and journals relevant to the study. Findings: The paper argued the role and importance of insurance in an emerging economy. The challenges and opportunities of the insurance sector are briefed out. The emerging areas in the insurance sector in terms of promotional strategies and distribution channel are also listed. Implications: The historical evolution can be studied by companies while formulating their strategies. It will help them analyse the insurance sector, how things have changed and how to change with the changing times. Originality/value: This paper gives comprehensive data regarding the background of the insurance sector. Along with historical perspective, marketing and distribution, current and future trends have been discussed.

Keywords: insurance, evolution, life insurance, marketing, distribution channels

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2937 Impact of Instagram Food Bloggers on Consumer (Generation Z) Decision Making Process in Islamabad. Pakistan

Authors: Tabinda Sadiq, Tehmina Ashfaq Qazi, Hoor Shumail

Abstract:

Recently, the advent of emerging technology has created an emerging generation of restaurant marketing. It explores the aspects that influence customers’ decision-making process in selecting a restaurant after reading food bloggers' reviews online. The motivation behind this research is to investigate the correlation between the credibility of the source and their attitude toward restaurant visits. The researcher collected the data by distributing a survey questionnaire through google forms by employing the Source credibility theory. Non- probability purposive sampling technique was used to collect data. The questionnaire used a predeveloped and validated scale by Ohanian to measure the relationship. Also, the researcher collected data from 250 respondents in order to investigate the influence of food bloggers on Gen Z's decision-making process. SPSS statistical version 26 was used for statistical testing and analyzing the data. The findings of the survey revealed that there is a moderate positive correlation between the variables. So, it can be analyzed that food bloggers do have an impact on Generation Z's decision making process.

Keywords: credibility, decision making, food bloggers, generation z, e-wom

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2936 Evaluation of the Integration of a Direct Reduction Process into an Existing Steel Mill

Authors: Nils Mueller, Gregor Herz, Erik Reichelt, Matthias Jahn

Abstract:

In the context of climate change, the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in all economic sectors is considered to be an important factor in order to meet the demands of a sustainable energy system. The steel industry as one of the large industrial CO₂ emitters is currently highly dependent on fossil resources. In order to reduce coke consumption and thereby CO₂ emissions while still being able to further utilize existing blast furnaces, the possibility of including a direct reduction process (DRP) into a fully integrated steel mill was investigated. Therefore, a blast furnace model, derived from literature data and implemented in Aspen Plus, was used to analyze the impact of DRI in the blast furnace process. Furthermore, a state-of-the-art DRP was modeled to investigate the possibility of substituting the reducing agent natural gas with hydrogen. A sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to find the boundary percentage of hydrogen as a reducing agent without penalty to the DRI quality. Lastly, the two modeled process steps were combined to form a route of producing pig iron. By varying boundary conditions of the DRP while recording the CO₂ emissions of the two process steps, the overall potential for the reduction of CO₂ emissions was estimated. Within the simulated range, a maximum reduction of CO₂ emissions of 23.5% relative to typical emissions of a blast furnace could be determined.

Keywords: blast furnace, CO₂ mitigation, DRI, hydrogen

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2935 Smart Demand Response: A South African Pragmatic, Non-Destructive and Alternative Advanced Metering Infrastructure-Based Maximum Demand Reduction Methodology

Authors: Christo Nicholls

Abstract:

The National Electricity Grid (NEG) in South Africa has been under strain for the last five years. This overburden of the NEG led Eskom (the State-Owned Entity responsible for the NEG) to implement a blunt methodology to assist them in reducing the maximum demand (MD) on the NEG, when required, called Loadshedding. The challenge of this methodology is that not only does it lead to immense technical issues with the distribution network equipment, e.g., transformers, due to the frequent abrupt off and on switching, it also has a broader negative fiscal impact on the distributors, as their key consumers (commercial & industrial) are now grid defecting due to the lack of Electricity Security Provision (ESP). This paper provides a pragmatic alternative methodology utilizing specific functionalities embedded within direct-connect single and three-phase Advanced Meter Infrastructure (AMI) Solutions deployed within the distribution network, in conjunction with a Multi-Agent Systems Based AI implementation focused on Automated Negotiation Peer-2-Peer trading. The results of this research clearly illustrate, not only does methodology provide a factual percentage contribution towards the NEG MD at the point of consideration, it also allows the distributor to leverage the real-time MD data from key consumers to activate complex, yet impact-measurable Demand Response (DR) programs.

Keywords: AI, AMI, demand response, multi-agent

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2934 Preparation, Characterisation, and Antibacterial Activity of Green-Biosynthesised Silver Nanoparticles Using Clinacanthus Nutans Extract

Authors: Salahaedin Waiezi, Nik Ahmad Nizam Nik Malek, Hassan Abdelmagid Elzamzami, Shahrulnizahana Mohammad Din

Abstract:

A green and safe approach to the synthesis of silver nanoparticles (AgNP) can be performed using plant leaf extract as the reducing agent. Hence, this paper reports the biosynthesis of AgNP using Clinacanthus nutans plant extract. C. nutans is known as belalai gajah in Malaysia and is widely used as a medicinal herb locally. The biosynthesized AgNP, using C. nutans aqueous extract at pH 10, with the reaction temperature of 70°C and 48 h reaction time, was characterized by UV-Vis spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction (XRD), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FESEM), energy dispersive X-ray (EDX), and transmission electron microscope (TEM). A peak appeared in the UV-Vis spectra at around 400 nm, while XRD confirmed the crystal structure of AgNP, with the average size between 20 to 30 nm, as shown in FESEM and TEM. The antibacterial activity of the biosynthesized AgNP, which was performed using the disc diffusion technique (DDT) indicated effective inhibition against Escherichia coli, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, and Staphylococcus aureus. In contrast, minimal antibacterial activity was detected against Enterococcus faecalis and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). In general, AgNP produced using C. nutans leaf extract possesses potential antibacterial activity.

Keywords: silver nanoparticles, Clinacanthus nutans, antibacterial agent, biosynthesis

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2933 Effect of Surface-Modification of Indium Tin Oxide Particles on Their Electrical Conductivity

Authors: Y. Kobayashi, T. Kurosaka, K. Yamamura, T. Yonezawa, K. Yamasaki

Abstract:

The present work reports an effect of surface- modification of indium tin oxide (ITO) particles with chemicals on their electronic conductivity properties. Examined chemicals were polyvinyl alcohol (nonionic polymer), poly(diallyl dimethyl ammonium chloride) (cationic polymer), poly(sodium 4-styrene-sulfonate) (anionic polymer), (2-aminopropyl) trimethoxy silane (APMS) (silane coupling agent with amino group), and (3-mercaptopropyl) trimethoxy silane (MPS) (silane coupling agent with thiol group). For all the examined chemicals, volume resistivities of surface-modified ITO particles did not increase much when they were aged in air at 80 oC, compared to a volume resistivity of un-surface-modified ITO particles. Increases in volume resistivities of ITO particles surface-modified with the silane coupling agents were smaller than those with the polymers, since hydrolysis of the silane coupling agents and condensation of generated silanol and OH groups on ITO particles took place to provide efficient immobilization of them on particles. The APMS gave an increase in volume resistivity smaller than the MPS, since a larger solubility in water of APMS providing a larger amount of APMS immobilized on particles.

Keywords: indium tin oxide, particles, surface-modification, volume resistivity

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2932 A Validated UPLC-MS/MS Assay Using Negative Ionization Mode for High-Throughput Determination of Pomalidomide in Rat Plasma

Authors: Muzaffar Iqbal, Essam Ezzeldin, Khalid A. Al-Rashood

Abstract:

Pomalidomide is a second generation oral immunomodulatory agent, being used for the treatment of multiple myeloma in patients with disease refractory to lenalidomide and bortezomib. In this study, a sensitive UPLC-MS/MS assay was developed and validated for high-throughput determination of pomalidomide in rat plasma using celecoxib as an internal standard (IS). Liquid liquid extraction using dichloromethane as extracting agent was employed to extract pomalidomide and IS from 200 µL of plasma. Chromatographic separation was carried on Acquity BEHTM C18 column (50 × 2.1 mm, 1.7 µm) using an isocratic mobile phase of acetonitrile:10 mM ammonium acetate (80:20, v/v), at a flow rate of 0.250 mL/min. Both pomalidomide and IS were eluted at 0.66 ± 0.03 and 0.80 ± 0.03 min, respectively with a total run time of 1.5 min only. Detection was performed on a triple quadrupole tandem mass spectrometer using electrospray ionization in negative mode. The precursor to product ion transitions of m/z 272.01 → 160.89 for pomalidomide and m/z 380.08 → 316.01 for IS were used to quantify them respectively, using multiple reaction monitoring mode. The developed method was validated according to regulatory guideline for bioanalytical method validation. The linearity in plasma sample was achieved in the concentration range of 0.47–400 ng/mL (r2 ≥ 0.997). The intra and inter-day precision values were ≤ 11.1% (RSD, %) whereas accuracy values ranged from - 6.8 – 8.5% (RE, %). In addition, other validation results were within the acceptance criteria and the method was successfully applied in a pharmacokinetic study of pomalidomide in rats.

Keywords: pomalidomide, pharmacokinetics, LC-MS/MS, celecoxib

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2931 Surviral: An Agent-Based Simulation Framework for Sars-Cov-2 Outcome Prediction

Authors: Sabrina Neururer, Marco Schweitzer, Werner Hackl, Bernhard Tilg, Patrick Raudaschl, Andreas Huber, Bernhard Pfeifer

Abstract:

History and the current outbreak of Covid-19 have shown the deadly potential of infectious diseases. However, infectious diseases also have a serious impact on areas other than health and healthcare, such as the economy or social life. These areas are strongly codependent. Therefore, disease control measures, such as social distancing, quarantines, curfews, or lockdowns, have to be adopted in a very considerate manner. Infectious disease modeling can support policy and decision-makers with adequate information regarding the dynamics of the pandemic and therefore assist in planning and enforcing appropriate measures that will prevent the healthcare system from collapsing. In this work, an agent-based simulation package named “survival” for simulating infectious diseases is presented. A special focus is put on SARS-Cov-2. The presented simulation package was used in Austria to model the SARS-Cov-2 outbreak from the beginning of 2020. Agent-based modeling is a relatively recent modeling approach. Since our world is getting more and more complex, the complexity of the underlying systems is also increasing. The development of tools and frameworks and increasing computational power advance the application of agent-based models. For parametrizing the presented model, different data sources, such as known infections, wastewater virus load, blood donor antibodies, circulating virus variants and the used capacity for hospitalization, as well as the availability of medical materials like ventilators, were integrated with a database system and used. The simulation result of the model was used for predicting the dynamics and the possible outcomes and was used by the health authorities to decide on the measures to be taken in order to control the pandemic situation. The survival package was implemented in the programming language Java and the analytics were performed with R Studio. During the first run in March 2020, the simulation showed that without measures other than individual personal behavior and appropriate medication, the death toll would have been about 27 million people worldwide within the first year. The model predicted the hospitalization rates (standard and intensive care) for Tyrol and South Tyrol with an accuracy of about 1.5% average error. They were calculated to provide 10-days forecasts. The state government and the hospitals were provided with the 10-days models to support their decision-making. This ensured that standard care was maintained for as long as possible without restrictions. Furthermore, various measures were estimated and thereafter enforced. Among other things, communities were quarantined based on the calculations while, in accordance with the calculations, the curfews for the entire population were reduced. With this framework, which is used in the national crisis team of the Austrian province of Tyrol, a very accurate model could be created on the federal state level as well as on the district and municipal level, which was able to provide decision-makers with a solid information basis. This framework can be transferred to various infectious diseases and thus can be used as a basis for future monitoring.

Keywords: modelling, simulation, agent-based, SARS-Cov-2, COVID-19

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