Search results for: dependency tree

Authors: Jeffrey A. Amelse

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Many corporations aspire to become Net Zero Carbon Carbon Dioxide by 2035-2050. This paper examines what it will take to achieve those goals. Achieving Net Zero CO₂ requires an understanding of where energy is produced and consumed, the magnitude of CO₂ generation, and proper understanding of the Carbon Cycle. The latter leads to the distinction between CO₂ and biomass carbon sequestration. Short reviews are provided for prior technologies proposed for reducing CO₂ emissions from fossil fuels or substitution by renewable energy, to focus on their limitations and to show that none offer a complete solution. Of these, CO₂ sequestration is poised to have the largest impact. It will just cost money, scale-up is a huge challenge, and it will not be a complete solution. CO₂ sequestration is still in the demonstration and semi-commercial scale. Transportation accounts for only about 30% of total U.S. energy demand, and renewables account for only a small fraction of that sector. Yet, bioethanol production consumes 40% of U.S. corn crop, and biodiesel consumes 30% of U.S. soybeans. It is unrealistic to believe that biofuels can completely displace fossil fuels in the transportation market. Bioethanol is traced through its Carbon Cycle and shown to be both energy inefficient and inefficient use of biomass carbon. Both biofuels and CO₂ sequestration reduce future CO₂ emissions from continued use of fossil fuels. They will not remove CO₂ already in the atmosphere. Planting more trees has been proposed as a way to reduce atmospheric CO₂. Trees are a temporary solution. When they complete their Carbon Cycle, they die and release their carbon as CO₂ to the atmosphere. Thus, planting more trees is just 'kicking the can down the road.' The only way to permanently remove CO₂ already in the atmosphere is to break the Carbon Cycle by growing biomass from atmospheric CO₂ and sequestering biomass carbon. Sequestering tree leaves is proposed as a solution. Unlike wood, leaves have a short Carbon Cycle time constant. They renew and decompose every year. Allometric equations from the USDA indicate that theoretically, sequestrating only a fraction of the world’s tree leaves can get the world to Net Zero CO₂ without disturbing the underlying forests. How can tree leaves be permanently sequestered? It may be as simple as rethinking how landfills are designed to discourage instead of encouraging decomposition. In traditional landfills, municipal waste undergoes rapid initial aerobic decomposition to CO₂, followed by slow anaerobic decomposition to methane and CO₂. The latter can take hundreds to thousands of years. The first step in anaerobic decomposition is hydrolysis of cellulose to release sugars, which those who have worked on cellulosic ethanol know is challenging for a number of reasons. The key to permanent leaf sequestration may be keeping the landfills dry and exploiting known inhibitors for anaerobic bacteria.

Keywords: carbon dioxide, net zero, sequestration, biomass, leaves

Procedia PDF Downloads 102

Authors: Arlene López-Sampson, Tony Page, Betsy Jackes

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Aquilaria genus produces a highly valuable fragrant oleoresin known as agarwood. Agarwood forms in a few trees in the wild as a response to injure or pathogen attack. The resin is used in perfume and incense industry and medicine. Cultivation of Aquilaria species as a sustainable source of the resin is now a common strategy. Physiological traits are frequently used as a proxy of crop and tree productivity. Aquilaria species growing in Queensland, Australia were studied to investigate relationship between leaf-productivity traits with tree growth. Specifically, 28 trees, representing 12 plus trees and 16 trees from yield plots, were selected to conduct carbon isotope analysis (δ13C) and monitor six leaf attributes. Trees were grouped on four diametric classes (diameter at 150 mm above ground level) ensuring the variability in growth of the whole population was sampled. Model averaging technique based on the Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) was computed to identify whether leaf traits could assist in diameter prediction. Carbon isotope values were correlated with height classes and leaf traits to determine any relationship. In average four leaves per shoot were recorded. Approximately one new leaf per week is produced by a shoot. Rate of leaf expansion was estimated in 1.45 mm day-1. There were no statistical differences between diametric classes and leaf expansion rate and number of new leaves per week (p > 0.05). Range of δ13C values in leaves of Aquilaria species was from -25.5 ‰ to -31 ‰ with an average of -28.4 ‰ (± 1.5 ‰). Only 39% of the variability in height can be explained by δ13C in leaf. Leaf δ13C and nitrogen content values were positively correlated. This relationship implies that leaves with higher photosynthetic capacities also had lower intercellular carbon dioxide concentrations (ci/ca) and less depleted values of 13C. Most of the predictor variables have a weak correlation with diameter (D). However, analysis of the 95% confidence of best-ranked regression models indicated that the predictors that could likely explain growth in Aquilaria species are petiole length (PeLen), values of δ13C (true13C) and δ15N (true15N), leaf area (LA), specific leaf area (SLA) and number of new leaf produced per week (NL.week). The model constructed with PeLen, true13C, true15N, LA, SLA and NL.week could explain 45% (R2 0.4573) of the variability in D. The leaf traits studied gave a better understanding of the leaf attributes that could assist in the selection of high-productivity trees in Aquilaria.

Keywords: 13C, petiole length, specific leaf area, tree growth

Procedia PDF Downloads 485

Authors: Shola H. Adeosun, Lekan M. Togunwa, Kolawole Z. Amos

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This paper appraises ‘Newspaper Coverage of 2015 General Election: A study of The Punch and Guardian Newspapers’. The objectives of the study were to examine how credible newspaper reports of 2015 election were and to examine the significant role Nigeria Newspapers played in the 2015 general elections. Also this study examined the extent at which the print media contributed to the success of 2015 general election and to ascertain the extent at which print media reports serve as a tool for sensitizing the masses. The research questions that guided this research include: How credible was newspaper report of 2015 general election? To what extent did the print media contributed to the success of 2015 general elections? To what extent did the print media reports serve as a tool for sensitizing the masses? The research work was given solid theoretical foundation with the review of Agenda-setting theory, Media System Dependency Theory and Normative theories. This study was given solid theoretical foundation with the review of Agenda-setting theory, Media Dependency Theory and Normative theories. The theory was conducted using content analysis method of research and 30 publications of both The Guardian and Punch Newspaper between January 1st and March 30, 2015 forms the population for this research work. Selection of the dates and editions of Newspaper under study were done using the composite week sampling technique. All the days of the week were used for the newspapers because they (The Punch and The Guardian) are published all the days of the week. Coding sheet was the tool of data collection for the content analysis of this study. Findings of the study revealed that by the Punch newspaper and Guardian has played a significant role in eradicating election malpractices in Nigeria. It therefore concludes that media is metaphoric when we termed it to be a watchdog of the nation as well the mirror through which the nation see and recognize itself. The study also recommends that Nigerian media should strike balance between entertainment stories, crisis stories, economic stories, law story, education stories, terrorism stories, health stories, sport stories, metropolitan stories instead of portraying the country as being crime oriented.

Keywords: newspaper, coverage, general elections, impact

Procedia PDF Downloads 290

Authors: Lee Ping Ang, Salvatore Tomasello, Jun Wen, Marc S. Appelhans

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With about 225 species, Zanthoxylum L. is the second most species rich genus in Rutaceae. It is the only genus with a pantropical distribution. Economically, it is used in several Asian countries as traditional medicine and spice. In the past Zanthoxylum was divided into two genera, the temperate Zanthoxylum sensu strictu (s.s.) and the (sub)tropical Fagara, due to the large differences in flower morphology: heterochlamydeous in Fagara and homochlamydeous in Zanthoxylum s.s.. This genus is much under studied and previous phylogenetic studies using Sanger sequencing did not resolve the relationships sufficiently. In this study, we use Hybrid Capture with a specially designed bait set for Zanthoxylum to sequence 347 putatively single-copy genes. The taxon sampling has been largely improved as compared to previous studies and the preliminary results will be based on 371 specimens representing 133 species from all continents and major island groups. Our preliminary results reveal similar tree topology as the previous studies while providing more details to the backbone of the phylogeny. The phylogenetic tree consists of four main clades: A) African/Malagasy clade, B) Z. asiaticum clade - a clade consisting widespread species occurring in (sub)tropical Asia and Africa as well as Madagascar, C) Asian/Pacific clade and D) American clade, which also includes the temperate Asian species. The merging of Fagara and Zanthoxylum is supported by our results and the homochlamydeous flowers of Zanthoxylum s.s. are likely derived from heterochlamydeous flowers. Several of the morphologically defined sections within Zanthoxylum are not monophyletic. The study dissemination will (1) introduce the framework of this project; (2) present preliminary results and (3) the ongoing progress of the study.

Keywords: Zanthoxylum, phylogenomic, hybrid capture, pantropical

Procedia PDF Downloads 42

Authors: Jahede Tekeykhah, Seyed Mohsen Hossini, Gholamali Jalali

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Industrial and traffic activities cause large amounts of heavy metals enter into the atmosphere and the use of plant species can be effective in assessing and reducing air pollution by metals. This study aimed to investigate the adsorption level of heavy metals in leaves of Fraxinus rotundifolia, Robinia, Platanus orientalis, Platycladus orientalis and Pinus eldarica trees in Abidar forest park. For this purpose, samples leaves of the trees were prepared from the contaminated and control areas in each region in 3 stations with 3 replicates in mid-August and finally 90 samples were sent to the laboratory. Then, the concentrations of heavy metals were measured by graphite furnace. To do this, factorial experiment based on a completely randomized design with two factors of location on two levels (contaminated area and control area) and the factor of species on five levels (Fraxinus rotundifolia, Robinia, Platanus orientalis, Platycladus orientalis and Pinus eldarica) with three replications was used. The analysis of collected data was performed by SPSS software and Duncan's multiple range test was used to compare the means. The results showed that the accumulation of all metals in the leaves of most species in the infected area with a significant difference at 95% level was higher than the control area. In the contaminated area, with a significant difference at 5% level, the highest accumulations of metals were observed as the following: lead, cadmium, zinc and manganese in Platanus orientalis, nickel in Fraxinus rotundifolia and copper in Platycladus orientalis.

Keywords: airborne, tree species, heavy metals, absorption, Abidar Forest Park

Procedia PDF Downloads 280

Authors: Fanny Soulard

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Today work environment is more multicultural than ever: spatial limits have been blown out, encouraging people and ideas mobility all around the globe. Indeed, opportunities to design with culturally diverse team workers, clients, or end-users, have become within everyone's reach. We enjoy traveling to discover other civilizations, but when it comes to business, we often take for granted that our own work methodology will be generic enough to federate each party and cover the project needs. This paper aims to explore why, by skipping cultural awareness, we often create misunderstandings, frustration, and even counterproductive design. Tree lighting projects successively developed by a French lighting studio, a Vietnamese lighting studio, and an Australian Engineering company will be assessed from their concept stage to completion. All these study cases are based in Vietnam, where the construction market is equally led by local and international consultants. Core criteria such as lighting standard reference, service scope, communication tools, internal team organization, delivery package content, key priorities, and client relationship will help to spot and list when and how cultural diversity has impacted the design output and effectiveness. On the second hand, we will demonstrate through the same selected projects how intercultural intelligence tools and mindset can not only respond positively to previous situations and avoid major clashes but also turn cultural differences into a key added value to generate significant benefits for individuals, teams, and companies. By understanding the major importance of including a cultural factor within any design, intercultural intelligence will quickly turn out as a “must have” skill to be developed and acquired by any designer.

Keywords: intercultural intelligence, lighting design, work methodology, multicultural diversity

Procedia PDF Downloads 68

Authors: Yu-Jia Jian, Emily Chia-Yu Su, Hui-Ling Hsu, Jian-Jhih Chen

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Coronary artery is the major supplier of myocardial blood flow. When fat and cholesterol are deposit in the coronary arterial wall, narrowing and stenosis of the artery occurs, which may lead to myocardial ischemia and eventually infarction. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), estimated 740 million people have died of coronary heart disease in 2015. According to Statistics from Ministry of Health and Welfare in Taiwan, heart disease (except for hypertensive diseases) ranked the second among the top 10 causes of death from 2013 to 2016, and it still shows a growing trend. According to American Heart Association (AHA), the risk factors for coronary heart disease including: age (> 65 years), sex (men to women with 2:1 ratio), obesity, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history, lack of exercise and more. We have collected a dataset of 421 patients from a hospital located in northern Taiwan who received coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography. There were 300 males (71.26%) and 121 females (28.74%), with age ranging from 24 to 92 years, and a mean age of 56.3 years. Prior to coronary CT angiography, basic data of the patients, including age, gender, obesity index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, smoking, family history of coronary heart disease and exercise habits, were collected and used as input variables. The output variable of the prediction module is the degree of coronary artery stenosis. The output variable of the prediction module is the narrow constriction of the coronary artery. In this study, the dataset was randomly divided into 80% as training set and 20% as test set. Four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, stepwise regression, neural network and decision tree, were incorporated to generate prediction results. We used area under curve (AUC) / accuracy (Acc.) to compare the four models, the best model is neural network, followed by stepwise logistic regression, decision tree, and logistic regression, with 0.68 / 79 %, 0.68 / 74%, 0.65 / 78%, and 0.65 / 74%, respectively. Sensitivity of neural network was 27.3%, specificity was 90.8%, stepwise Logistic regression sensitivity was 18.2%, specificity was 92.3%, decision tree sensitivity was 13.6%, specificity was 100%, logistic regression sensitivity was 27.3%, specificity 89.2%. From the result of this study, we hope to improve the accuracy by improving the module parameters or other methods in the future and we hope to solve the problem of low sensitivity by adjusting the imbalanced proportion of positive and negative data.

Keywords: decision support, computed tomography, coronary artery, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 212

Authors: Krzysztof Buczak, Sonia Lachowska, Pawel Kucharski, Agnieszka Antonczyk

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Tiletamine - zolazepam combination is increasingly used in veterinary anaesthesiology in wild animals, including snakes. The available literature shows a lack of information about anesthesia in this mixture in ovoviviparous snakes. The studies show the possibility of using the combination at a dose of 20 mg/kg or more for snake immobilization. This paper presents an anesthetic protocol with the use of a combination of tiletamine - zolazepam at the dose of 10 mg/kg intramuscularly and maintenance with inhalant anesthesia with isoflurane in pure oxygen. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the anesthetic protocol to proceed with coeliotomy in Amazon Tree Boa. The patient was a five years old bicolor female Amazon Tree Boa (Corallus hortulanus) with dystocia. The clinical examination reveals significant emaciation (bodyweight 520g), high degree of dehydration, heart rate (HR = 60 / min), pale mucous membranes and poor reactivity. Meloxicam (1 mg/kg) and tramadol (10 mg/kg) were administered subcutaneously and the patient was placed in an incubator with access to fresh oxygen. Four hours later, the combination of tiletamine - zolazepam (10 mg/kg) was administered intramuscularly for induction of anesthesia. The snake was intubated and connected to inhalant anesthesia equipment. For maintenance, the anesthesia isoflurane in pure oxygen was used due to apnea, which occurs 30 minutes after the induction semi-closed system was attached and the ventilator was turned on (PCV system, four breaths per minute, 8 cm of H2O). Cardiopulmonary parameters (HR, RR, SPO2, ETCO2, ETISO) were assessed throughout the procedure. During the entire procedure, the operating room was heated to a temperature of 26 degrees Celsius. Additionally, the hose was placed on a heating mat, which maintained a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. For 15 minutes after induction, the loss of muscle tone was observed from the head to the tail. Induction of general anesthesia was scored as good because of the possibility of intubation. During the whole procedure, the heart rate was at the rate of 58 beats per minute (bpm). Ventilation parameters were stable throughout the procedure. The recovery period lasts for about 4 hours after the end of general anesthesia. The muscle tension returned from tail to head. The snake started to breathe spontaneously within 1,5 hours after the end of general anesthesia. The protocol of general anesthesia with the combination of tiletamine- zolazepam with a dose of 10 mg/kg is useful for proceeding with the emergency coeliotomy in maintenance with isoflurane in oxygen. Further study about the impact of the combination of tiletamine- zolazepam for the recovery period is needed.

Keywords: anesthesia, corallus hortulanus, ovoviparous, snake, tiletamine, zolazepam

Procedia PDF Downloads 218

Authors: Murat Sözen

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It is not at all difficult to estimate which level today’s technology reaches considering that humankinds space-faring in early 1950s. Technology is a means to help achieve goals and people can produce systems on their physical and mental abilities. Needed and used as tools in all areas of life and became a necessity and dependency, technology, widely used in the military field. To be a revolutionary change in the military matters, opportunities offered by technology should be put into practice. Tech makes weapons, sensors, platforms and soldiers carrying them more effective. To increase this efficiency in the battlefield defense industry is seeking every advantage of technology. In this study, the applicability of existing and on-going augmented reality applications for Armed Forces will be evaluated.

Keywords: augmented reality, battlefield, military, virtual reality

Procedia PDF Downloads 241

Authors: Mandy Wilson, Emma Vieira, Jocelyn Jones, Alice V. Brown, Lindey Andrews, Louise Southalan, Jackie Oakley, Dorothy Bagshaw, Patrick Egan, Laura Dent, Duc Dau, Lucy Spanswick

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Alcohol and drug dependency are pertinent issues for those experiencing homelessness. This includes Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, Australia’s traditional owners, living in Perth, Western Australia (WA). Societal narratives around the drivers behind drug and alcohol dependency in Aboriginal communities, particularly those experiencing homelessness, have been biased and unchanging, with little regard for complexity. This can include the idea that Aboriginal people have ‘chosen’ to use alcohol or other drugs without consideration for intergenerational trauma and the trauma of homelessness that may influence their choices. These narratives have flow-on impacts on policies and services that directly impact Aboriginal people experiencing homelessness. In 2021, we commenced a project which aimed to listen to and elevate the voices of 70-90 Aboriginal people experiencing homelessness in Perth. The project is community-driven, led by an Aboriginal Community Controlled Organisation in partnership with a university research institute. A community-ownership group of Aboriginal Elders endorsed the project’s methods, chosen to ensure their suitability for the Aboriginal community. In this paper, we detail these methods, including semi-structured interviews influenced by an Aboriginal yarning approach – an important style of conversation for Aboriginal people which follows cultural protocols; and photovoice – supporting people to share their stories through photography. Through these engagements, we detail the reasons Aboriginal people in Perth shared for using alcohol or other drugs while experiencing homelessness. These included supporting their survival on the streets, managing their mental health, and coping while on the journey to finding support. We also detail why they sought to discontinue alcohol and other drug use, including wanting to reconnect with family and changing priorities. Finally, we share how Aboriginal people experiencing homelessness have said they are impacted by their family’s alcohol and other drug use, including feeling uncomfortable living with a family who is drug and alcohol-dependent and having to care for grandchildren despite their own homelessness. These findings provide a richer understanding of alcohol and drug use for Aboriginal people experiencing homelessness in Perth, shedding light on potential changes to targeted policy and service approaches.

Keywords: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples, alcohol and other drugs, homelessness, community-led research

Procedia PDF Downloads 101

Authors: Juang R. Matangaran, Qi Adlan

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Industrial plantation forest in Indonesia was developed in 1983, and since then, several companies have been successfully planted a total area of concessionaire approximately 10 million hectares. Currently, these plantation forests have their annual harvesting period. In the timber harvesting process, amount part of the trees generally become logging residue. Tree parts such as branches, twigs, defected stem and leaves are unused section of tree on the ground after timber harvesting. The use of heavy machines in timber harvesting area has caused damage to the forest soil. The negative impact of such machines includes loss of topsoil, soil erosion, and soil compaction. Forest soil compaction caused reduction of forest water infiltration, increase runoff and causes difficulty for root penetration. In this study, we used logging residue as soil covers on the passages passed by skidding machines in order to observe the reduction soil compaction. Bulk density of soil was measured and analyzed after several times of skidding machines passage on skid trail. The objective of the research was to analyze the effect of logging residue on reducing soil compaction. The research was taken place at one of the industrial plantation forest area of South Sumatra Indonesia. The result of the study showed that percentage increase of soil compaction bare soil was larger than soil surface covered by logging residue. The maximum soil compaction occurred after 4 to 5 passes on soil without logging residue or bare soil and after 7 to 8 passes on soil cover by logging residue. The use of logging residue coverings could reduce soil compaction from 45% to 60%. The logging residue was effective in decreasing soil disturbance of timber harvesting at the plantation forest area.

Keywords: bulk density, logging residue, plantation forest, soil compaction, timber harvesting

Procedia PDF Downloads 379

Authors: Shiwani Bhatnagar, K. K. Srivastava, Sangeeta Singh, Ameen Ullah Khan, Bundesh Kumar, Lokendra Singh Rathore

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From the instigation of the world medicinal plants are treated as part and parcel of human society to fight against diseases. Azadirachta indica (Neem) a herbal plant has been used as an Indian traditional medicine since ages and its products are acknowledged to solve agricultural, forestry and public health related problems, owing to its beneficial medicinal properties. Each part of the neem tree is known for its medicinal property. Bark & leaf extracts of neem have been used to control leprosy, respiratory disorders, constipation and also as blood purifier and a general health tonic. Neem is still regarded as ' rural community dispensary' in India or a tree for solving medical problems. Use of Neem as pesticides for the management of insect pest of agriculture crops and forestry has been seen as a shift in the use of synthetic pesticides to ecofriendly botanicals. Neem oil and seed extracts possess germicidal and anti-bacterial properties which when sprayed on the plant helps in protecting them from foliage pests. Azadirachtin, the main active ingredient found in neem tree, acts as an insect repellent and antifeedant. However the young plants are susceptible to many insect pest and foliar diseases. Recently, in the avenue plantation, planted by Arid Forest Research Institute, Jodhpur, around the premises of IIT Jodhpur, two years old neem plants were found to be severely infested with tip borer Laspeyresia koenigana (Family: Eucosmidae). The adult moth of L. koenigana lays eggs on the tender shoots and the young larvae tunnel into the shoot and feed inside. A small pinhole can be seen at the entrance point, from where the larva enters in to the stem. The severely attached apical shoots exhibit profuse gum exudation resulting in development of a callus structure. The internal feeding causes the stem to wilt and the leaves to dry up from the tips resulting in growth retardation. Alternaria Leaf spot and blight symptoms were also recorded on these neem plants. For the management of tip borer and Alternaria Leaf spot, foliar spray of monocrotophos @0.05% and Dithane M-45 @ 0.15% and powermin @ 2ml/lit were found efficient in managing the insect pest and foliar disease problem. No Further incidence of pest/diseases was noticed.

Keywords: azadirachta indica, alternaria leaf spot, laspeyresia koenigana, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 450

Authors: S. Ahmad, M. Rizwan, B. Ayub, S. Mehmood, P. Akhtar

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This experiment was conducted to investigate the effect of supplementation of pure herbal blend on growth performance of boilers. One hundred and twenty birds were randomly distributed into 4 experimental units of 3 replicates (10 birds/replicate) as: negative control (basal diet), positive control (Lincomycin at the rate of 5g/bag), pure herbal blend at the rate of 150g/bag and pure herbal blend at the rate of 300g/bag. The data regarding weekly feed intake, body weight gain and feed conversion ratio were recorded, and fecal samples were collected at the end of starter and finisher phase for nutrient digestibility trial. The results of feed intake showed significant (P < 0.05) results in 1st (305g), 2nd (696.88g), 3rd (1046.9g) and 4th (1173.2g) week and feed conversion ratio indicated significant (P < 0.05) variations in 1st (2.54) and 4th (2.28) week of age. Also, both starter and finisher phase indicated significant (P < 0.05) differences among all treatment groups in feed intake (2023.4g) and (2302.6g) respectively. The statistical analysis indicated significant (P < 0.05) results in crop filling percentage (86.6%) after 2 hours of first feed supplementation. In case of nutrient digestibility trial, results showed significant (P < 0.05) values of crude protein and crude fat in starter phase as 69.65% and 56.62% respectively, and 69.57% and 48.55% respectively, in finisher phase. Based on overall results, it was concluded that the dietary inclusion of pure herbal blend containing neem tree leaves powder, garlic powder, ginger powder and turmeric powder increase the production performance of broilers.

Keywords: neem tree leave, garlic, ginger, herbal blend, broiler

Procedia PDF Downloads 175

Authors: Rachel Y. Zhang, Christopher K. Anderson

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A critical aspect of revenue management is a firm’s ability to predict demand as a function of price. Historically hotels have used simple time series models (regression and/or pick-up based models) owing to the complexities of trying to build casual models of demands. Machine learning approaches are slowly attracting attention owing to their flexibility in modeling relationships. This study provides an overview of approaches to forecasting hospitality demand – focusing on the opportunities created by machine learning approaches, including K-Nearest-Neighbors, Support vector machine, Regression Tree, and Artificial Neural Network algorithms. The out-of-sample performances of above approaches to forecasting hotel demand are illustrated by using a proprietary sample of the market level (24 properties) transactional data for Las Vegas NV. Causal predictive models can be built and evaluated owing to the availability of market level (versus firm level) data. This research also compares and contrast model accuracy of firm-level models (i.e. predictive models for hotel A only using hotel A’s data) to models using market level data (prices, review scores, location, chain scale, etc… for all hotels within the market). The prospected models will be valuable for hotel revenue prediction given the basic characters of a hotel property or can be applied in performance evaluation for an existed hotel. The findings will unveil the features that play key roles in a hotel’s revenue performance, which would have considerable potential usefulness in both revenue prediction and evaluation.

Keywords: hotel revenue, k-nearest-neighbors, machine learning, neural network, prediction model, regression tree, support vector machine

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: P. S. Dhananjaya Swamy, B. Chinnappa, G. B. Ramesh, Naveen P. Kumar

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Kodagu district is one of the most densely forested districts in the India as around sixty five per cent of geographical areas under tree cover. Nearly 53 per cent of the flora of Kodagu is endemic. The district is also a hotspot of endemic orchids found mainly in the Thadiandamol. Shade grown, eco-friendly coffee farms are perhaps a selected few places on this planet where nature runs wild. The Kodagu accounts for more than 8.8 per cent of floral diversity of Karnataka state. Estimation of unit cost of cultivation plays a vital role in determining the governmental program their market intervention policies. On an average, planters incurred around Rs. 17041 per acre. The extent of production risk was highest among small category of planters (66 %) compared to other two exhibiting production instability. The result shows that, the coffee productivity in medium plantations was 1051.2 kg per acre as against 758.5 and 789.2 kg in the case of small and large plantations. An annual net return per acre was highest in the case of medium planters (Rs. 26109.3) as against Rs. 20566.7 and Rs. 18572.7 in the case of small and large planters. Cost of production was lowest in the case of small planters (Rs. 18.9 per kg of output) followed by medium planters (Rs. 21.2 per kg of output) and large planters (Rs. 22.5 per kg of output). The productivity of coffee is less whenever it is grown under high shade and native tree cover; it is around 6 quintals per acre when compared with low shade conditions, which is around 8.9 quintals per acre, without a significant difference in the amount invested for growing coffee. Net gain was lower by Rs. 15.5 per kg for the planters growing under high shade and native trees cover when compared with low shade and exotic trees cover.

Keywords: coffee, cultivation, economics, Kodagu

Procedia PDF Downloads 167

Authors: Ashwinder K. Dhaliwal, G. P. S. Dhillon

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Eucalyptus is one of the most important forest tree species that can tolerate and grow well on degraded and unfertile soils which are not suitable for other tree species. Besides this, these trees have a short rotation and good economic value. However, the gall inducing wasp Leptocybe invasa Fisher and La Salle has been reported from many countries throughout the world. The spread of L. invasa is of huge economic concern as more than 20,000 ha of young Eucalyptus trees have already been affected in southern states of India. The host plant resistance being the first line of defense against insect pests demands the screening of different germplasm source against L. invasa. Keeping this in view, fourteen different clones of Eucalyptus spp. were evaluated for their susceptibility to L. invasa from a replicated clonal trial planted at Punjab Agricultural University, Ludhiana. The degree of gall infestation was recorded from three plants of each clone in each replication. Three branches selected from the lower, middle and upper canopy of the trees were selected for recording the total number of galls induced by L. invasa. The statistical analysis was done as per the procedure laid down for completely randomised block design (CRBD), analysis of variance (ANOVA), critical difference (CD) and variance components using Proc GLM (SAS software 9.3, SAS Institute Ltd. U.S.A). All possible treatment means were compared with Duncan’s multiple range test (DMRT) at 1 % probability level. The results showed that the clones C-9, C-45 and C-42 were completely free from the infestation of L. invasa. However, there was minor infestation of L. invasa on C-2135, C-413, C-407, C-35, C-72 and C-37 clones. The clone C-6 was severely infested by L. invasa followed by C-11, C-12, F-316 and C-25 clones. The information generated by this study will be helpful for future breeding and use in afforestation programmes.

Keywords: eucalyptus clones, gall wasp, Leptocybe invasa, screening, susceptibility

Procedia PDF Downloads 198

Authors: Siddharth Krishnaswamy

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Problem Statement: Currently, when analyzing household food security, the most commonly studied food access indicators are household income and expenditure. Larger studies do take into account other indices such as credit and employment. But these are baselines studies and by definition are conducted infrequently. Food security analysis for access is usually dedicated to analyzing income and expenditure indicators. And both these indicators are notoriously inconsistent. Yet this data can very often end up being the basis on which household food access is calculated; and by extension, be used for decision making. Objectives: This paper argues that along with income and expenditure, credit and debit information should be collected so that an accurate analysis of household food security (and in particular) food access can be determined. The lack of collection and analysis of this information routinely means that there is often a “masking” of the actual situation; a household’s food access and food availability patterns may be adequate mainly as a result of borrowing and may even be due to a long- term dependency (a debt cycle). In other words, such a household is, in reality, worse off than it appears a factor masked by its performance on basic access indicators. Procedures/methodologies/approaches: Existing food security data sets collected in 2005 in Azerbaijan, 2010 across Myanmar and 2014-15 across Uganda were used to support the theory that analyzing income and expenditure of a HHs and analyzing the same in addition to data on credit & borrowing patterns will result in an entirely different scenario of food access of the household. Furthermore, the data analyzed depicts food consumption patterns across groups of households and then relates this to the extent of dependency on credit, i.e. households borrowing money in order to meet food needs. Finally, response options that were based on analyzing only income and expenditure; and response options based on income, expenditure, credit, and borrowing – from the same geographical area of operation are studied and discussed. Results: The purpose of this work was to see if existing methods of household food security analysis could be improved. It is hoped that food security analysts will collect household level information on credit and debit and analyze them against income, expenditure and consumption patterns. This will help determine if a household’s food access and availability are dependent on unsustainable strategies such as borrowing money for food or undertaking sustained debts. Conclusions: The results clearly show the amount of relevant information that is missing in Food Access analysis if debit and borrowing of the household is not analyzed along with the typical Food Access indicators that are usually analyzed. And the serious repercussions this has on Programmatic response and interventions.

Keywords: analysis, food security indicators, response, resilience analysis

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Authors: Armand Okende, Joëlle De Weerdt, Esther Fichtler, Maaike De Ridder, Hans Beeckman

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The rainforest plays a crucial role in regulating the climate balance. The biodiversity of tropical rainforests is undeniable, but many aspects remain poorly known, which directly influences its management. Despite the efforts of sustainable forest management, human pressure in terms of exploitation and smuggling of timber forms a problem compared to exploited species whose status is considered "vulnerable" on the IUCN red list compiled by. Commercial species in Class III of the Democratic Republic of Congo are the least known in the market operating, and their biology is unknown or non-existent. Identification of wood in terms of descriptions and anatomical measurements of the wood is in great demand for various stakeholders such as scientists, customs, IUCN, etc. The objective of this study is the qualitative and quantitative description of the anatomical characteristics of commercial species in Class III of DR Congo. The site of the Luki Biosphere Reserve was chosen because of its high tree species richness. This study focuses on the wood anatomy of 14 commercial species of Class III of DR Congo. Thirty-four wooden discs were collected for these species. The following parameters were measured in the field: Diameter at breast height (DBH), total height and geographic coordinates. Microtomy, identification of vessel parameters (diameter, density and grouping) and photograph of the microscopic sections and determining age were performed in this study. The results obtained are detailed anatomical descriptions of species in Class III of the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Keywords: sustainable management of forest, rainforest, commercial species of class iii, vessel diameter, vessel density, grouping vessel

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Authors: Trude Tørset, María Díez Gutiérrez

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The west coast of Norway features numerous islands and fjords. Ferry services connect the roads when these features make the construction challenging. Currently, scientific effort is designated to assess potential ferry replacement projects along the European road E-39. The inconvenience of ferry dependency is imprecisely represented in the transport models, thus transport analyses of ferry replacement projects appear as guesstimates rather than reliable input to decision-making processes of such costly projects. Trips including ferry connections imply more inconvenient elements than just travel time and cost. The goal of this paper is to understand and explain the extra inconveniences associated to the dependency of the ferry. The first scientific approach is to identify the characteristics of the ferry travelers and their trips’ features, as well as whether the ferry represents an obstacle for some specific trip types. In doing so, a survey was conducted in 2011 in eight E-39 ferries and in 2013 in 18 ferries connecting different road categories. More than 20,000 passengers answered with their trip and socioeconomic characteristics. The travel patterns in the different ferry connections were compared. The analysis showed that the trip features differed based on the location of the ferry connections, yet independently of the road category. Additionally, the patterns were compared to the national travel survey to detect differences in the travel patterns due to the use of the ferry connections. The results showed that the share of commuting trips within the same travel time was lower if the ferry was part of the trip. The second scientific approach is to know how the different travelers perceive potential benefits for a ferry replacement project. In the 2011 survey, some of the questions were about the relevance of nine different benefits this project might bring. Travelers identified the better access to public services and job market as the most valuable benefits, followed by the reduced planning of the trip. In 2016, a follow-up survey in some of the ferry connections was carried out in order to investigate variations in travelers’ perceptions. The growing interest in ferry replacement projects might make travelers more aware of the potential benefits these would bring to their daily lives. This paper describes the travel behaviour of travelers using a ferry connection as part of their trips, as well as the potential inconveniences associated to these trips. The findings might provide valuable input to further development of transport models, concept evaluations and cost benefit analysis methods.

Keywords: ferry connections, ferry trip, inconvenience costs, travel behaviour

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Authors: Weiran An, Junyou Shi

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Health management has become one of the design goals in the research and development of new generation avionics systems, and is an important complement and development for the testability and fault diagnosis technology. Currently, the research and application for avionics system health dividing and diagnosis technology is still at the starting stage, lack of related technologies and methods reserve. In this paper, based on the health three-state dividing of avionics products, state lateral transfer coupling modeling and diagnosis reasoning method considering sub-health are researched. With the study of typical case application, the feasibility and correctness of the method and the software are verified.

Keywords: sub-health, diagnosis reasoning, three-valued coupled logic, extended dependency model, avionics

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Authors: F. Ghazalnaz Sharifonnasabi, Iman Makhdoom

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Breast cancer is a serious health concern that affects many people around the world. According to a study published in the Breast journal, the global burden of breast cancer is expected to increase significantly over the next few decades. The number of deaths from breast cancer has been increasing over the years, but the age-standardized mortality rate has decreased in some countries. It’s important to be aware of the risk factors for breast cancer and to get regular check- ups to catch it early if it does occur. Machin learning techniques have been used to aid in the early detection and diagnosis of breast cancer. These techniques, that have been shown to be effective in predicting and diagnosing the disease, have become a research hotspot. In this study, we consider two deep learning approaches including: Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). We also considered the five-machine learning algorithm titled: Decision Tree (C4.5), Naïve Bayesian (NB), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) Algorithm and XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) on the Breast Cancer Wisconsin Diagnostic dataset. We have carried out the process of evaluating and comparing classifiers involving selecting appropriate metrics to evaluate classifier performance and selecting an appropriate tool to quantify this performance. The main purpose of the study is predicting and diagnosis breast cancer, applying the mentioned algorithms and also discovering of the most effective with respect to confusion matrix, accuracy and precision. It is realized that CNN outperformed all other classifiers and achieved the highest accuracy (0.982456). The work is implemented in the Anaconda environment based on Python programing language.

Keywords: breast cancer, multi-layer perceptron, Naïve Bayesian, SVM, decision tree, convolutional neural network, XGBoost, KNN

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Authors: Jinan Fiaidhi, Sabah Mohammed, Petros Zezos

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Capsule endoscopy (CE) is an established noninvasive diagnostic modality in investigating small bowel disease. CE has a pivotal role in assessing patients with suspected bleeding or identifying evidence of active Crohn's disease in the small bowel. However, CE produces lengthy videos with at least eighty thousand frames, with a frequency rate of 2 frames per second. Gastroenterologists cannot dedicate 8 to 15 hours to reading the CE video frames to arrive at a diagnosis. This is why the issue of analyzing CE videos based on modern artificial intelligence techniques becomes a necessity. However, machine learning, including deep learning, has failed to report robust results because of the lack of large samples to train its neural nets. In this paper, we are describing a thick data approach that learns from a few anchor images. We are using sound datasets like KVASIR and CrohnIPI to filter candidate frames that include interesting anomalies in any CE video. We are identifying candidate frames based on feature extraction to provide representative measures of the anomaly, like the size of the anomaly and the color contrast compared to the image background, and later feed these features to a decision tree that can classify the candidate frames as having a condition like the Crohn's Disease. Our thick data approach reported accuracy of detecting Crohn's Disease based on the availability of ulcer areas at the candidate frames for KVASIR was 89.9% and for the CrohnIPI was 83.3%. We are continuing our research to fine-tune our approach by adding more thick data methods for enhancing diagnosis accuracy.

Keywords: thick data analytics, capsule endoscopy, Crohn’s disease, siamese neural network, decision tree

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Authors: Adesuyi Ayodeji Steve, Zahn Munch

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This study investigates the use of MODIS NDVI to identify agricultural land cover change areas on an annual time step (2007 - 2012) and characterize the trend in the study area. An ISODATA classification was performed on the MODIS imagery to select only the agricultural class producing 3 class groups namely: agriculture, agriculture/semi-natural, and semi-natural. NDVI signatures were created for the time series to identify areas dominated by cereals and vineyards with the aid of ancillary, pictometry and field sample data. The NDVI signature curve and training samples aided in creating a decision tree model in WEKA 3.6.9. From the training samples two classification models were built in WEKA using decision tree classifier (J48) algorithm; Model 1 included ISODATA classification and Model 2 without, both having accuracies of 90.7% and 88.3% respectively. The two models were used to classify the whole study area, thus producing two land cover maps with Model 1 and 2 having classification accuracies of 77% and 80% respectively. Model 2 was used to create change detection maps for all the other years. Subtle changes and areas of consistency (unchanged) were observed in the agricultural classes and crop practices over the years as predicted by the land cover classification. 41% of the catchment comprises of cereals with 35% possibly following a crop rotation system. Vineyard largely remained constant over the years, with some conversion to vineyard (1%) from other land cover classes. Some of the changes might be as a result of misclassification and crop rotation system.

Keywords: change detection, land cover, modis, NDVI

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Authors: Aysen Caliskan, Hanzade Haykiri-Acma, Serdar Yaman

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Co-firing of coal and biomass blends is an effective method to reduce carbon dioxide emissions released by burning coals, thanks to the carbon-neutral nature of biomass. Besides, usage of biomass that is renewable and sustainable energy resource mitigates the dependency on fossil fuels for power generation. However, most of the biomass species has negative aspects such as low calorific value, high moisture and volatile matter contents compared to coal. Torrefaction is a promising technique in order to upgrade the fuel properties of biomass through thermal treatment. That is, this technique improves the calorific value of biomass along with serious reductions in the moisture and volatile matter contents. In this context, several woody biomass materials including Rhododendron, hybrid poplar, and ash-tree were subjected to torrefaction process in a horizontal tube furnace at 200°C under nitrogen flow. In this way, the solid residue obtained from torrefaction that is also called as 'biochar' was obtained and analyzed to monitor the variations taking place in biomass properties. On the other hand, some Turkish lignites from Elbistan, Adıyaman-Gölbaşı and Çorum-Dodurga deposits were chosen as coal samples since these lignites are of great importance in lignite-fired power stations in Turkey. These lignites were blended with the obtained biochars for which the blending ratio of biochars was kept at 10 wt% and the lignites were the dominant constituents in the fuel blends. Burning tests of the lignites, biomasses, biochars, and blends were performed using a thermogravimetric analyzer up to 900°C with a heating rate of 40°C/min under dry air atmosphere. Based on these burning tests, properties relevant to burning characteristics such as the burning reactivity and burnout yields etc. could be compared to justify the effects of torrefaction and blending. Besides, some characterization techniques including X-Ray Diffraction (XRD), Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) were also conducted for the untreated biomass and torrefied biomass (biochar) samples, lignites and their blends to examine the co-combustion characteristics elaborately. Results of this study revealed the fact that blending of lignite with 10 wt% biochar created synergistic behaviors during co-combustion in comparison to the individual burning of the ingredient fuels in the blends. Burnout and ignition performances of each blend were compared by taking into account the lignite and biomass structures and characteristics. The blend that has the best co-combustion profile and ignition properties was selected. Even though final burnouts of the lignites were decreased due to the addition of biomass, co-combustion process acts as a reasonable and sustainable solution due to its environmentally friendly benefits such as reductions in net carbon dioxide (CO2), SOx and hazardous organic chemicals derived from volatiles.

Keywords: burnout performance, co-combustion, thermal analysis, torrefaction pretreatment

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Authors: Kaleem Ahmed, Jamal A. Khan

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Grouping patterns, habitat use, and overlap studies were conducted on five sympatric ungulate species sambar (Cervus unicolor), chital (Axis axis), muntjac (Muntiacus muntjac), goral (Nemorhaedus goral), and serow (Capricornis sumatraensis) in the Dabka watershed area within Indian West Himalayan range. Data on age, sex composition, group size, and various ecological and topographical factors governing the presence/absence of species within the study area were collected using a 250 km of a trail walk, 95 permanent circular plots of 10 m radius, and 3 vantage points with 58 scannings. The highest mean group size was recorded for chital (6.35 ± 0.50), followed by sambar (1.35 ± 0.10), goral (1.25 ±0.63), muntjac (1.12 ± 0.05), and serow (1.00 ± 0.00). Grouping pattern significantly varied among sympatric species (F = 85.10, df. = 6, P = 0.000). The highest mean pellet group density (/ha ± SE) was recorded for sambar (41.56 ± 3.51), followed by goral (23.31 ± 3.45), chital (19.21 ± 3.51), muntjac (7.43 ± 1.21), and serow (1.02 ± 0.10). Two-way variance analysis showed a significant difference in the density of the pellet group of all ungulate species across different study area habitats (F = 6.38, df = 4, P = 0.027). The availability-utilization (AU) analysis reveals that goral was mostly sighted in steep slopes, preferred > 2100 m altitudinal range with low shrub understory, avoided dense forest, and relatively more southern aspects were used. Chital had used a wide range of tree and shrub coverings with a preference towards moderate cover range (26-50%), preferred areas with low slope category ( < 25), avoided areas of high altitude > 900 m. Sambar avoided less tree cover (0-25), preferred slope category (26-500), altitudes between 1600-2100 m, and preferred dense forest with northern aspects. Muntjac used all elevation ranges in the study area with a preference towards the dense forest and northern aspects. Serow preferred high tree cover > 75%, avoided low shrub cover (0-25%), preferred high shrub cover 51-75%, utilized higher elevation > 2100 m, avoided low elevation range and northern aspects. All species occupied similar habitat types, forest or scrub, except for the goral, which preferred open spaces. Between muntjac and sambar, the highest overlap was found (65%), and there was no overlap between chital and serow, chital and goral. Aspect, slope, altitude, and vegetation characteristics were found to be important factors for the overlap of ungulate sympatric species. One major reason for their ecological separation at the fine-scale level is the differential use of altitude by ungulates in the present study. This is confirmed by the avoidance by chital of altitudes > 900 m and serow of < 2100 m.

Keywords: altitude, grouping pattern, Himalayas, overlap, ungulates

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Authors: Min Wang, Sergey Utev

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The lessons from the 2007-09 global financial crisis have driven scientific research, which considers the design of new methodologies and financial models in the global market. The quantum mechanics approach was introduced in the unpredictable stock market modeling. One famous quantum tool is Feynman path integral method, which was used to model insurance risk by Tamturk and Utev and adapted to formalize the path-dependent option pricing by Hao and Utev. The research is based on the path-dependent calculation method, which is motivated by the Feynman path integral method. The path calculation can be studied in two ways, one way is to label, and the other is computational. Labeling is a part of the representation of objects, and generating functions can provide many different ways of representing share price paths. In this paper, the recent works on graphical theoretical construction of individual share price path via matroid is presented. Firstly, a study is done on the knowledge of matroid, relationship between lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials and ways to connect points in the lattice path matroid and Tutte polynomials is suggested. Secondly, It is found that a general binary tree can be validly constructed from a connected lattice path matroid rather than general lattice path matroid. Lastly, it is suggested that there is a way to represent share price paths via a general binary tree, and an algorithm is developed to construct share price paths from general binary trees. A relationship is also provided between lattice integer points and Tutte polynomials of a transversal matroid. Use this way of connection together with the algorithm, a share price path can be constructed from a given connected lattice path matroid.

Keywords: combinatorial construction, graphical representation, matroid, path calculation, share price, Tutte polynomial

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Authors: Deepti Kumari, Upamanyu Hore

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Cities are an example of a human-modified environment with few fragments of urban green spaces, which are widely considered for urban biodiversity. The study aims to address the avifaunal diversity in urban parks based on the park size and their urbanization intensity. Also, understanding the key factors affecting species composition and structure as birds are a good indicator of a healthy ecosystem, and they are sensitive to changes in the environment. A 50 m-long line-transect method is used to survey birds in 39 urban parks in Delhi, India. Habitat variables, including vegetation (percentage of non-native trees, percentage of native trees, top canopy cover, sub-canopy cover, diameter at breast height, ground vegetation cover, shrub height) were measured using the quadrat method along the transect, and disturbance variables (distance from water, distance from road, distance from settlement, park area, visitor rate, and urbanization intensity) were measured using ArcGIS and google earth. We analyzed species data for diversity and richness. We explored the relation of species diversity and richness to habitat variables using the multi-model inference approach. Diversity and richness are found significant in different park sizes and their urbanization intensity. Medium size park supports more diversity, whereas large size park has more richness. However, diversity and richness both declined with increasing urbanization intensity. The result of CCA revealed that species composition in urban parks was positively associated with tree diameter at breast height and distance from the settlement. On the model selection approach, disturbance variables, especially distance from road, urbanization intensity, and visitors are the best predictors for the species richness of birds in urban parks. In comparison, multiple regression analysis between habitat variables and bird diversity suggested that native tree species in the park may explain the diversity pattern of birds in urban parks. Feeding guilds such as insectivores, omnivores, carnivores, granivores, and frugivores showed a significant relation with vegetation variables, while carnivores and scavenger bird species mainly responded with disturbance variables. The study highlights the importance of park size in urban areas and their urbanization intensity. It also indicates that distance from the settlement, distance from the road, urbanization intensity, visitors, diameter at breast height, and native tree species can be important determining factors for bird richness and diversity in urban parks. The study also concludes that the response of feeding guilds to vegetation and disturbance in urban parks varies. Therefore, we recommend that park size and surrounding urban matrix should be considered in order to increase bird diversity and richness in urban areas for designing and planning.

Keywords: diversity, feeding guild, urban park, urbanization intensity

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Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

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This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

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Authors: F. Lazzeri, I. Reiter

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Energy production optimization has been traditionally very important for utilities in order to improve resource consumption. However, load forecasting is a challenging task, as there are a large number of relevant variables that must be considered, and several strategies have been used to deal with this complex problem. This is especially true also in microgrids where many elements have to adjust their performance depending on the future generation and consumption conditions. The goal of this paper is to present a solution for short-term load forecasting in microgrids, based on three machine learning experiments developed in R and web services built and deployed with different components of Cortana Intelligence Suite: Azure Machine Learning, a fully managed cloud service that enables to easily build, deploy, and share predictive analytics solutions; SQL database, a Microsoft database service for app developers; and PowerBI, a suite of business analytics tools to analyze data and share insights. Our results show that Boosted Decision Tree and Fast Forest Quantile regression methods can be very useful to predict hourly short-term consumption in microgrids; moreover, we found that for these types of forecasting models, weather data (temperature, wind, humidity and dew point) can play a crucial role in improving the accuracy of the forecasting solution. Data cleaning and feature engineering methods performed in R and different types of machine learning algorithms (Boosted Decision Tree, Fast Forest Quantile and ARIMA) will be presented, and results and performance metrics discussed.

Keywords: time-series, features engineering methods for forecasting, energy demand forecasting, Azure Machine Learning

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Authors: Surafel Demissie, Frank Keenan, Fergal McCaffery

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Emerging medical devices are highly relying on embedded software that runs on the specific platform in real time. The development of embedded software is different from ordinary software development due to the hardware-software dependency. MDevSPICE^® has been developed to provide guidance to support such development. To increase the flexibility of this framework agile practices have been introduced. This paper outlines the challenges for embedded medical device software development and the structure of MDevSPICE^® and suggests a suitable combination of agile practices that will help to add flexibility and address corresponding challenges of embedded medical device software development.

Keywords: agile practices, challenges, embedded software, MDevSPICE®, medical device

Procedia PDF Downloads 240