Search results for: value at risk

Authors: Mark T. Hanson, Alan T. Varughese

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Osteoporosis is a disease affecting bone quality which in turn can increase the risk of low energy fractures. Treatment of osteoporosis using Bisphosphonates has the beneficial effect of increasing bone mass while at the same time has been linked to the formation of atypical femoral fractures. This has led to the increased study of micro-fractures in bones of patients using Bisphosphonate treatment. One of the mechanics related issues which have been identified in this regard is the loss in stiffness of bones containing one or many micro-fractures. Different theories have been put forth using fracture mechanics to determine the effect of crack presence on elastic properties such as modulus. However, validation of these results in a deterministic way has not been forthcoming. The present analysis seeks to provide this deterministic evaluation of fracture’s effect on the elastic modulus. In particular, the effect of crack size, crack orientation and crack number on elastic modulus is investigated. In particular, the Finite Element method is used to explicitly determine the elastic modulus reduction caused by the presence of cracks in a representative volume element. Single cracks of various lengths and orientations are examined as well as cases of multiple cracks. Cracks in tension as well as under shear stress are considered. Although the focus is predominantly two-dimensional, some three-dimensional results are also presented. The results obtained show the explicit reduction in modulus caused by the parameters of crack size, orientation and number noted above. The present results allow the interpretation of the various theories which currently exist in the literature.

Keywords: cracks, elastic, fracture, modulus

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: Fatemeh Abdollahi, Munn-Sann Lye, Jamshid Yazdani Charati, Mehran Zarghami

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Background: The negative consequences of intimate partner violence (IPV) on children have not been studied extensively. This study aimed to determine the prevalence of different types of IPV and its association with children’s growth and developmental problems. Methods: In a descriptive-analytical study, 596 mothers of one-year-old children referred to the primary health centers in Gonbad-e- Kavoos city were recruited (2018). The data were collected using the World Health Organization Domestic Violence, Ages and Stages Questionnaire-12 and the socio-economic, obstetrics, demographic and anthropometric characteristics related questionnaire. BMI Z-Score was categorized into three grades; thin (Z<-2), normal (-2≤Z<1), and overweight-obese (Z≥1). The data were analyzed using descriptive analysis, chi-square test, and regression. Results: The prevalence of physical, psychological, and sexual IPV was 7.4%, 29.5%, and 2.4%, respectively. Most of the children were of normal weight at one-year-old (91.7%). Similarly, the prevalence of overweight and obese was 13.3% and 8%, respectively. 2% of children had developmental problems at age one. There was a significant relationship between the father’s education and occupation and IPV and children’s delay in growth, respectively. There was no significant difference between BMI Z-Score and developmental disabilities in the children in women exposed and not exposed to all types of IPV. Conclusions: The prevalence of psychological IPV was common. IPV and children’s growth problems were influenced by the father’s socio-economic status. Preventing psychological IPV as a forerunner of other types of IPV and improving the economic situation may help in the reduction of these difficulties.

Keywords: children, development, growth, intimate partner violence

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Authors: João Filipe Papel, Tatsuji Munaka

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With society's aging and the number of elderly with dementia rising, researchers have been actively studying how to support the elderly in the early stages of dementia with the objective of allowing them to have a better life quality and as much as possible independence. To make this possible, most researchers in this field are using the Internet Of Things to monitor the elderly activities and assist them in performing them. The most common sensor used to monitor the elderly activities is the Camera sensor due to its easy installation and configuration. The other commonly used sensor is the sound sensor. However, we need to consider privacy when using these sensors. This research aims to develop a system capable of predicting the early stages of dementia based on monitoring and controlling the elderly activities of daily living. To make this system possible, some issues need to be addressed. First, the issue related to elderly privacy when trying to detect their Activities of Daily Living. Privacy when performing detection and monitoring Activities of Daily Living it's a serious concern. One of the purposes of this research is to achieve this detection and monitoring without putting the privacy of the elderly at risk. To make this possible, the study focuses on using an approach based on using Magnet Sensors to collect binary data. The second is to use the data collected by monitoring Activities of Daily Living to predict the early stages of Dementia. To make this possible, the research team suggests developing a proprietary ontology combined with both data-driven and knowledge-driven.

Keywords: dementia, activity recognition, magnet sensors, ontology, data driven and knowledge driven, IoT, activities of daily living

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Authors: F. Tahiri, F. Grajçevci

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The cities are coping with permanent demands to extend their residential and economical capacity. The new urban zones are sometimes induced to be developed in more vulnerable environments. This study is aimed to identify and mitigate the seismic hazards in the stage of urban planning for new settlements, including the existing urban environments which initially have not considered the seismic hazard. Seismic microzoning shall study the amplification/attenuation of seismic excitations from the bedrock to the ground surface. Modification of the seismic excitation is governed from the site specific ground conditions, presented on ground surface as mean values of the ratio of maximum accelerations at the surface versus acceleration of subsoil media – presented with dynamic amplification factors (DAF). The values shall be used to create the maps with isolines of DAF and then seismic microzoning with expected maximum mean surface acceleration as a product of DAF with maximum accelerations at bedrock. Development of resonant map shall conglomerate the information’s obtained from seismic microzoning in regard to expected predominant ground periods of seismic excitation and periods of vibrations of designed/built structures. These information’s shall be used as indispensible tool in early stages of urban planning to determine the most optimal zones for construction, the constructive materials, structural systems, range of buildings height, etc. so the resonance of soil media with built structures is avoided. The information’s could be used also for assessment of seismic risk and vulnerability-damageability of existing urban environments.

Keywords: vulnerable environment, mitigation, seismic microzoning, resonant map, urban planning

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Authors: Nam-Phuong T. Hoang, Divna Haslam, Matthew Sanders

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Parenting psychological control (PPC) is a parenting manner of which intrusive tactics such as guilt induction, shaming or love withdrawal is adopted to manipulate the child's behavior, emotion and beliefs. PPC has been widely reported to be associated with both psychological dysfunction and low self-esteem in adolescents. Highly demanding and restrictive parenting was also found to related to high rate of risk behaviors, depression, anxiety and anti-social behaviors in adults who co-live with their parents. In many cultures like that of Asia, adults keep on co-live with their parents even after having their own families, and this is not an uncommon practice. Due to the culture obligation of family relationship and the filial piety, children are expected to stay with their parents to taking care of them when they get older, and the parents are also expected to co-live with their children in order to support them with grandchild care. As one become a grandparent, however, it does not means one stop being the parent to their own child. The effect of PPC if exist thus might continue to interfere one’s relationship with their adult children and also their adult child’s parenting. This study was designed to examine that effect of PPC on adults’ life as parents. Data was collected from 501 Vietnamese parents whose children between the age of 2 to 12 and having their parent living with them or taking care of the grandchild on daily basic. Findings show that grandparent psychological control (GPPC) is significantly associated with parent’s harsh parenting, parent’s well-being, and parent-grandparent coparenting relationship. Significantly, GPPC is the strongest predictor for the coparenting conflict between parent and grandparent.

Keywords: parenting psychological control, grandparent, coparenting, well-being

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Authors: A. M. John-Otumu, M. M. Rahman, M. C. Onuoha, E. P. Ojonugwa

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A Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model for predicting Lassa fever was built using Python 3.8.0 programming language, alongside Keras 2.2.4 and TensorFlow 2.6.1 libraries as the development environment in order to reduce the current high risk of Lassa fever in West Africa, particularly in Nigeria. The study was prompted by some major flaws in existing conventional laboratory equipment for diagnosing Lassa fever (RT-PCR), as well as flaws in AI-based techniques that have been used for probing and prognosis of Lassa fever based on literature. There were 15,679 blood smear microscopic image datasets collected in total. The proposed model was trained on 70% of the dataset and tested on 30% of the microscopic images in avoid overfitting. A 3x3x3 convolution filter was also used in the proposed system to extract features from microscopic images. The proposed CNN-based model had a recall value of 96%, a precision value of 93%, an F1 score of 95%, and an accuracy of 94% in predicting and accurately classifying the images into clean or infected samples. Based on empirical evidence from the results of the literature consulted, the proposed model outperformed other existing AI-based techniques evaluated. If properly deployed, the model will assist physicians, medical laboratory scientists, and patients in making accurate diagnoses for Lassa fever cases, allowing the mortality rate due to the Lassa fever virus to be reduced through sound decision-making.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, blood smear, CNN, deep learning, Lassa fever

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Authors: Jun-Hyeon Cho, Ji-Yoon Lee, Young-Bo Sohn, Dong-Jin Shin, You-Chun Song, Dong-Soo Park, Min-Hee Nam, Young-Up Kwon

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Seed germination is a main factor in japonica rice cultivation. For japonica strains unlike indica lines, fast loss of germination ability during storage leads to risk of seeding and deterioration in the quality. To resolve these problems, germplasms screening for longevity was conducted using six days of compulsory aging stress of high temperature (50℃) and humidity (~95% RH). ‘Dharial’, a weedy rice collected in Bangladesh, was chosen as a source of seed longevity for long term storage. The strong germination trait originated from ‘Dharial’ was incorporated into Korean elite japonica cultivars, ‘Ilmi’ and ‘Gopum’, through backcross method. The germination ratio was evaluated after two years of room temperature storage conditions. A high germination ratio of 80.5% in donor plant of ‘Dharial’ and 77.3% in an introgression line were observed based on the two years of storage while the recurrent japonica cultivars, ‘Ilmi’ and ‘Gopum’, were failed in germination. As a result, we investigated the changes of quality affected by germination ability during storage. A gentle slope of palatability which is one of the measurement items for indirect selection indicator of high eating quality in japonica varieties was studied in a high germination ratio introgression line during storage. The introgression line could be useful to increase longevity and quality of japonica rice seed if molecular breeding strategy such as QTLs analysis is combined.

Keywords: rice, longevity, germination, storage

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Authors: Vinayak Bassi, Rajpreet Singh

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Over the years, with the emergence of sophisticated computers and algorithms, finance has been quantified using computational prowess. Asset valuation has been one of the key components of quantitative finance. In fact, it has become one of the embryonic steps in determining risk related to a portfolio, the main goal of quantitative finance. This study comprises a drawing comparison between valuation output generated by two stochastic dynamic models, namely Black-Scholes and Dupire’s bi-dimensionality model. Both of these models are formulated for computing the valuation function for a portfolio of European options using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Although Monte Carlo algorithms have a slower convergence rate than calculus-based simulation techniques (like FDM), they work quite effectively over high-dimensional dynamic models. A fidelity gap is analyzed between the static (historical) and stochastic inputs for a sample portfolio of underlying assets. In order to enhance the performance efficiency of the model, the study emphasized the use of variable reduction methods and customizing random number generators to implement parallelization. An attempt has been made to further implement the Dupire’s model on a GPU to achieve higher computational performance. Furthermore, ideas have been discussed around the performance enhancement and bottleneck identification related to the implementation of options-pricing models on GPUs.

Keywords: monte carlo, stochastic models, computational finance, parallel programming, scientific computing

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Authors: Raed Hameed Allawi

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Wellbore instability problems are considered the majority challenge for several wells in the Ratawi shale formation. However, it results in non-productive (NPT) time and increased well-drilling expenditures. This work aims to construct an integrated mechanical earth model (MEM) to predict the wellbore failure and design optimum mud weight to improve the drilling efficiency of future wells. The MEM was based on field data, including open-hole wireline logging and measurement data. Several failure criteria were applied in this work, including Modified Lade, Mogi-Coulomb, and Mohr-Coulomb that utilized to calculate the proper mud weight and practical drilling paths and orientations. Results showed that the leading cause of wellbore instability problems was inadequate mud weight. Moreover, some improper drilling practices and heterogeneity of Ratawi formation were additional causes of the increased risk of wellbore instability. Therefore, the suitable mud weight for safe drilling in the Ratawi shale formation should be 11.5-13.5 ppg. Furthermore, the mud weight should be increased as required depending on the trajectory of the planned well. The outcome of this study is as practical tools to reduce non-productive time and well costs and design future neighboring deviated wells to get high drilling efficiency. In addition, the current results serve as a reference for similar fields in that region because of the lacking of published studies regarding wellbore instability problems of the Ratawi Formation in southern Iraqi oilfields.

Keywords: wellbore stability, hole collapse, horizontal stress, MEM, mud window

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Authors: Hirbaye Mokona, Abebaw Gebeyehu, Aemro Zerihun

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Introduction: Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder is serious public health problem affecting millions of children throughout the world. Method: A cross-sectional study conducted from May to June 2015 among children age 6 to 17 years living in rural area of Girja district. Multi-stage cluster sampling technique was used to select 1302 study participants. Disruptive Behavior Disorder rating scale was used to collect the data. Data were coded, entered and cleaned by Epi-Data version 3.1 and analyzed by SPSS version 20. Logistic regression analysis was used and Variables that have P-values less than 0.05 on multivariable logistic regression was considered as statistically significant. Results: Prevalence of Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) among children age 6 to 17 years was 7.3%. Being male [AOR=1.81, 95%CI: (1.13, 2.91)]; living with single parent [AOR=5.0, 95%CI: (2.35, 10.65)]; child birth order/rank [AOR=2.35, 95%CI: (1.30, 4.25)]; low family socio-economic status [AOR= 2.43, 95%CI: (1.29, 4.59)]; maternal alcohol/khat use during pregnancy [AOR=3.14, 95%CI: (1.37, 7.37)] and complication at delivery [AOR=3.56, 95%CI: (1.19, 10.64)] were more likely to develop Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. Conclusion: In this study, the prevalence of Attention deficit hyperactivity disorder was similar with worldwide prevalence. Prevention and early management of its modifiable risk factors should be carryout alongside increasing community awareness.

Keywords: attention deficit hyperactivity disorder, ADHD, associated factors, children, prevalence

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Authors: Indhumathi Gopal

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Undergraduate research is well documented in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM), neurosciences, and microbiology disciplines, though it is hardly part of a physical fitness & wellness discipline. However, students need experiential learning opportunities, like internships and research assistantships, to get ahead with graduate schools and be gainfully employed. The first step towards this goal is to have students do a simple research project in a semester-long course. The value of research experiences and how to integrate research activity in a physical fitness & wellness course are discussed. The investigator looks into a mini research project, “Awareness of Obesity among College Students” and explains how to guide students through the research process, including journal search, data collection, and basic statistics. Besides, students will be introduced to the statistical package program SPSS 22.0 to assist with data evaluation. The lab component of the combined lecture-physical activity course could include the measurement of student’s weight with respect to their height to obtain body mass index (BMI). Students could categorize themselves in accordance with the World Health Organization’s guidelines. Results obtained after completing the data analysis help students be aware of their own potential health risks associated with overweight and obesity. Overweight and obesity are risk factors for hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and certain types of cancer. It is hoped that this experience will get students interested in scientific studies, gain confidence, think critically, and develop problem-solving and good communication skills.

Keywords: physical fitness, undergraduate research experience, obesity, BMI

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Authors: Asish Subedi, Krishna Pokharel, Birendra Prasad Sah, Pashupati Chaudhary

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Objectives: To evaluate an association between preoperative Nepali pain catastrophizing scale (N-PCS) scores and postoperative pain intensity and total opioid consumption. Methods: In this prospective cohort study we enrolled 135 patients with an American Society of Anaesthesiologists physical status I or II, aged between 18 and 65 years, and scheduled for surgery for lower-extremity fracture under spinal anaesthesia. Maximum postoperative pain reported during the 24 h was classified into two groups, no-mild pain group (Numeric rating scale [NRS] scores 1 to 3) and a moderate-severe pain group (NRS 4-10). The Spearman correlation coefficient was used to compare the association between the baseline N-PCS scores and outcome variables, i.e., the maximum NRS pain score and the total tramadol consumption within the first 24 h after surgery. Logistic regression models were used to identify the predictors for the intensity of postoperative pain. Results: As four patients violated the protocol, the data of 131 patients were analysed. Mean N-PCS scores reported by the moderate-severe pain group was 27.39 ±9.50 compared to 18.64 ±10 mean N-PCS scores by the no-mild pain group (p<0.001). Preoperative PCS scores correlated positively with postoperative pain intensity (r =0.39, [95% CI 0.23-0.52], p<0.001) and total tramadol consumption (r =0.32, [95% CI 0.16-0.47], p<0.001). An increase in catastrophizing scores was associated with postoperative moderate-severe pain (odds ratio, 1.08 [95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.15], p=0.006) after adjusting for gender, ethnicity and preoperative anxiety. Conclusion: Patients who reported higher pain catastrophizing preoperatively were at increased risk of experiencing moderate-severe postoperative pain.

Keywords: nepali, pain catastrophizing, postoperative pain, trauma

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Authors: Salah Guettala, nesreddine.djafarhenni, Akram Khelaifia, Rachid Chebili

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This study assesses the impact of infill walls' layout in both plan and elevation on the seismic behavior of a 3D reinforced concrete structure situated in a high seismic zone. A pushover analysis is conducted to evaluate the structure's seismic performance with various infill wall layouts, considering capacity curves, absorbed energy, inter-story drift, and performance levels. Additionally, torsional effects on the structure are examined through linear dynamic analysis. Fiber-section-based macro-modeling is utilized to simulate the behavior of infill walls. The findings indicate that the presence of infill walls enhances lateral stiffness and alters structural behavior. Moreover, the study highlights the importance of considering the effects of infill wall layout, as non-uniform layouts can degrade building performance post-earthquake, increasing inter-story drift and risk of damage or collapse. To mitigate such risks, buildings should adopt a uniform infill wall layout. Furthermore, asymmetrical placement of masonry infill walls introduces additional torsional forces, particularly when there's a lack of such walls on the first story, potentially leading to irregular stiffness and soft-story phenomena.

Keywords: RC structures, infll walls’ layout, pushover analysis, macro-model, fiber plastic hinge, torsion

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Authors: Hulya Ilyasoglu Buyukkestelli, Sedef Nehir El

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Lutein is a member of xanthophyll group of carotenoids found in fruits and vegetables. Lutein accumulates in the macula region of the retina and known as macular pigment which absorbs damaging light in the blue wavelengths. The presence of lutein in retina has been related to decreased risk of two common eye diseases, age-related macular degeneration, and cataract. Being a strong antioxidant, it may also have effects on prevention some types of cancer, cardiovascular disease, cognitive dysfunction. Humans are not capable of synthesizing lutein de novo; therefore it must be provided naturally by the diet, fortified foods, and beverages or nutritional supplement. However, poor bioavailability and physicochemical stability limit its usage in the food industry. Poor solubility in digestive fluids and sensitivity to heat, light, and oxygen are both affect the stability and bioavailability of lutein. In this context, new technologies, delivery systems and formulations have been applied to improve stability and solubility of lutein. Nanotechnology, including nanoemulsion, nanocrystal, nanoencapsulation technology and microencapsulation by complex coacervation, spray drying are promising ways of increasing solubilization of lutein and stability of it in different conditions. Bioavailability of lutein is also dependent on formulations used, starch formulations and milk proteins, especially sodium caseinate are found effective in improving the bioavailability of lutein. Designing foods with highly bioavailable and stabile lutein needs knowledge about current technologies, formulations, and further needs. This review provides an overview of the new technologies and formulations used to improve bioavailability of lutein and also gives a future outlook to food researches.

Keywords: bioavailability, formulation, lutein, nanotechnology

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Authors: Roozbeh Aghamajidi

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Shaft spillways are circling spillways used generally for emptying unexpected floods on earth and concrete dams. There are different types of shaft spillways: Stepped and Smooth spillways. Stepped spillways pass more flow discharges through themselves in comparison to smooth spillways. Therefore, awareness of flow behavior of these spillways helps using them better and more efficiently. Moreover, using vortex breaker has great effect on passing flow through shaft spillway. In order to use more efficiently, the risk of flow pressure decreases to less than fluid vapor pressure, called cavitations, should be prevented as far as possible. At this research, it has been tried to study different behavior of spillway with different vortex shapes on spillway crest on flow. From the viewpoint of the effects of flow regime changes on spillway, changes of step dimensions, and the change of type of discharge will be studied effectively. Therefore, two spillway models with three different vortex breakers and three arrangements have been used to assess the hydraulic characteristics of flow. With regard to the inlet discharge to spillway, the parameters of pressure and flow velocity on spillway surface have been measured at several points and after each run. Using these kinds of information leads us to create better design criteria of spillway profile. To achieve these purposes, optimization has important role and genetic algorithm are utilized to study the emptying discharge. As a result, it turned out that the best type of spillway with maximum discharge coefficient is smooth spillway with ogee shapes as vortex breaker and 3 number as arrangement. Besides it has been concluded that the genetic algorithm can be used to optimize the results.

Keywords: shaft spillway, vortex breaker, flow, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Zahra Hamedani, Ebrahim Solgi, Henry Skates, Gillian Isoardi

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Daylighting plays a pivotal role in promoting productivity and user satisfaction in office spaces. There is an ongoing trend in designing office buildings with a high proportion of glazing which relatively increases the risk of high visual discomfort. Providing a more realistic lighting analysis can be of high value at the early stages of building design when necessary changes can be made at a very low cost. This holistic approach can be achieved by incorporating subjective evaluation and user behaviour in computer simulation and provide a comprehensive lighting analysis. In this research, a detailed computer simulation model has been made using Radiance and Daysim. Afterwards, this model was validated by measurements and user feedback. The case study building is the school of science at Griffith University, Gold Coast, Queensland, which features highly glazed office spaces. In this paper, the visual comfort predicted by the model is compared with a preliminary survey of the building users to evaluate how user behaviour such as desk position, orientation selection, and user movement caused by daylight changes and other visual variations can inform perceptions of visual comfort. This work supports preliminary design analysis of visual comfort incorporating the effects of gaze shift patterns and views with the goal of designing effective layout for office spaces.

Keywords: lighting simulation, office buildings, user behaviour, validation, visual comfort

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Authors: Tobias Schramm, Günther Prokop

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Degraded vehicle shock absorbers represent a risk for road safety. The exact effect of degraded vehicle dampers on road safety is still the subject of research. This work is intended to contribute to estimating the effect of degraded twin-tube dampers of passenger cars on road safety. An axle model was built using a damper model to simulate different degradation levels. To parameterize the model, a realistic parameter space was estimated based on test rig measurements and database analyses, which is intended to represent the vehicle field in Germany. Within the parameter space, simulations of the axle model were carried out, which calculated the transmittable lateral forces of the various axle configurations as a function of vehicle speed, road surface, damper conditions and axle parameters. A degraded damper has the greatest effect on the transmittable lateral forces at high speeds and in poor road conditions. If a vehicle is traveling at a speed of 100 kph on a Class D road, a degraded damper reduces the transmissible lateral forces of an axle by 20 % on average. For individual parameter configurations, this value can rise to 50 %. The axle parameters that most influence the effect of a degraded damper are the vertical stiffness of the tire, the unsprung mass and the stabilizer stiffness of the axle.

Keywords: vehicle dynamics, vehicle simulation, vehicle component degradation, shock absorber model, shock absorber degradation

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Authors: Muhammad Mohsin, Mir Md Abdus Salam, Pertti Pulkkinen, Ari Pappinen

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Soil polluted with elevated level of nickel (Ni) concentration may cause severe hazards to humans and forest ecosystems, for example, by polluting underground water reserves, affecting food quality and by reducing agricultural productivity. The present study investigated the phytoextraction ability of Salix schwerinii, enhanced with an application of the N100 (11-amino-1-hydroxyundecylidene) chelate. N100 has proved to be a non-toxic, low risk of leaching, environmentally friendly and easily biodegradable chelate that has a potential for metal chelation. The Salix were grown in garden soil that was also amended with nickel (Ni; 150 mg kg⁻¹). Multiple doses of N100 were applied to the treatments as follows: Ni + N100 1.2 g and Ni+ N100 2.4 g. Furthermore, N100 doses were also repeated with the control soil. The effect of N100 on height growth, biomass, and the accumulation of Ni in Salix in polluted soils was studied. In this study, N100 application was found to be effective in enhancing height and biomass growth under polluted treatments. Total reflection X-ray fluorescence (TXRF) spectrometry was used to determine the concentration of Ni in the Salix tissues. The total Ni concentrations in the soils amended with N100 increased substantially by up to 324% as compared to the control. The Ni translocation factor (TF) and bioconcentration factor (BF) values for S. schwerinii increased with the application of N100 as varied from 0.45–1.25 and 0.80‒1.50, respectively. This study revealed that S. schwerinii is suitable for the phytoextraction of Ni-contaminated soils.

Keywords: bisphosphonic acid, nickel, phytoextraction, Salix

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Authors: Michel A. Thomet

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A discrete-event simulation model was used to perform a Reliability-Availability-Maintainability (RAM) study of a large petrochemical complex which included sixteen process units, and seven feeds and intermediate streams. All the feeds and intermediate streams have associated storage tanks, so that if a processing unit fails and shuts down, the downstream units can keep producing their outputs. This also helps the upstream units which do not have to reduce their outputs, but can store their excess production until the failed unit restart. Each process unit and each pipe section carrying the feeds and intermediate streams has a probability of failure with an associated distribution and a Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), as well as a distribution of the time to restore and a Mean Time To Restore (MTTR). The utilities supporting the process units can also fail and have their own distributions with specific MTBF and MTTR. The model runs are for ten years or more and the runs are repeated several times to obtain statistically relevant results. One of the main results is the On-Stream factor (OSF) of each process unit (percent of hours in a year when the unit is running in nominal conditions). One of the objectives of the study was to investigate if the storage capacity of each of the feeds and the intermediate stream was adequate. This was done by increasing the storage capacities in several steps and through running the simulation to see if the OSF were improved and by how much. Other objectives were to see if the failure of the utilities were an important factor in the overall OSF, and what could be done to reduce their failure rates through redundant equipment.

Keywords: business continuity, on-stream factor, petrochemical, RAM study, simulation, MTBF

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Authors: Angelika Magiera, Weronika Penar, Czesław Klocek

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Intellectual disability (ID) affects approximately 1.55% of children and adults in the society of developed countries. Depending on the ID degree, the patient is burdened with additional disease entities. Intellectual disability does not only limits a person’s opportunities to participate in social life but also affects whole families. People with ID belong to the group of risk of mental illnesses, they are less emotionally stable, while families are predisposed to depression. The study was held in a day care center for people with intellectual disabilities (of various degrees of disability) on 26 people. Nurses and carers also took part. The age range of study groups ranged from 22 to 67 years. Therapeutic classes were held for four independent mixed groups (sex and intellectual disability degree) from 6 to 7 people each, lasting no more than 30 minutes. They were created by the facility's staff to make sure that a group is stable. The animal assisted activity took place with a 2.5-year-old Ragdoll cat. The animal has passed the exam (certificate entitling her to take part in felinotherapy) and had 1.5 years of work experience. Due to the different degrees of ID, an individual emotional state survey was conducted among the caregivers of those who were involved in the activity, to assess the impact of animal assisted activity with a cat on patients. A positive effect on the emotional state of people with different types of intellectual disability was observed. Caregivers and nurses of those participating in the study express willingness to continue these types of classes and consider them necessary for this group of people.

Keywords: intellectual disabilities, animal-assisted activity, cat, feline, emotions

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Authors: Jake Tempo, Jack Crozier, Huay Ann Chia, Philip Tan

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Purpose: A prospective study was performed to determine whether temporary ureteric catheterization should be eliminated as a prophylactic method for preventing ureteric obstruction after uncomplicated ureteropyeloscopic lithotripsy. Material and Methods: From 2010 to 2014, 227 patients underwent uncomplicated ureteroscopic and/or pyeloscopic lithotripsy. Three patient-groups based on postoperative drainage method were analysed: temporary uretericcatheter (TUC), -ureteric JJ stent, and no-stent groups. Exclusion criteria included urosepsis, ureteric injury, and non-surgical complications delaying hospital-discharge. Outcome measures included parenteral analgesic requirements, prolonged hospitalization ≥2 days due to postoperative-pain, and readmissions rate. Results: Delayed discharge was reported in 14.5%(9 of 62) patients in the TUC group compared to 3.4%(4 of 119) in theureteric JJ stent group and 8.7%(4 of 46) in the no-drainage-group (p=0.02). Odds ratio for delayed-discharge between catheter- versus-ureteric JJ stent is 4.9 (95% CI = 1.6-15.0; p < 0.01). Parenteral analgesic requirements in the TUC group (12.9%) was also significantly higher than theureteric JJ stent group (1.7%; p=0.003). Readmissions were negligible between groups. Conclusions: Patients with ureteric catheters after uncomplicated ureteroscopy have a prolonged hospital stay with increased pain and parenteral analgesic requirements. There is a 7.6-fold increased requirement for parenteral analgesia and a 4.2-fold increased risk of delayed-discharge compared to a patient with a ureteric JJ stent.

Keywords: ureteric catheter, ureteric stent, ureteroscopy, pyeloscopy

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Authors: Mohammad Rawashdeh, Mark McEntee, Maha Zaitoun, Mostafa Abdelrahman, Patrick Brennan, Haytham Alewaidat, Sarah Lewis, Charbel Saade

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Despite the tremendous advancements that have been generated by Computed Tomography (CT) in the field of diagnosis, concerns have been raised about the potential cancer induction risk from CT because of the exponentially increased use of it in medicine. This study aims at investigating the application and knowledge of practicing radiographers in Jordan about CT radiation. In order to collect the primary data of this study, a questionnaire was designed and distributed by social media using a snow-balling sampling method. The respondents (n=54) have answered 36 questions including the questions about their demographic information, knowledge about Diagnostic Reference Levels (DRLs), CT exposure and adaptation of pediatric patients exposure. The educational level of the respondents was either at a diploma degree (35.2%) or bachelor (64.8%). The results of this study have indicated a good level of general knowledge between radiographers about the relationship between image quality, exposure parameters, and patient dose. The level of knowledge related to DRL was poor where less than 7.4 percent of the sample members were able to give specific values for a number of common anatomical fields, including abdomen, brain, and chest. Overall, Jordanian radiographers need to gain more knowledge about the expected levels of the dose when applying good practice. Additional education on DRL or DRL inclusion in educational programs is highlighted.

Keywords: computed tomography, CT scan, DRLs, exposure parameters, image quality, radiation dose

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Authors: Esam I. Jassim

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The main aim of this paper is to demonstrate the prediction of the model capability of predicting the nucleation process, the growth rate, and the deposition potential of second phase particles in gas flowlines. The primary objective of the research is to predict the risk hazards involved in the marine transportation of compressed natural gas. However, the proposed model can be equally used for other applications including production and transportation of natural gas in any high-pressure flow-line. The proposed model employs the following three main components to approach the problem: computational fluid dynamics (CFD) technique is used to configure the flow field; the nucleation model is developed and incorporated in the simulation to predict the incipient hydrate particles size and growth rate; and the deposition of the gas/particle flow is proposed using the concept of the particle deposition velocity. These components are integrated in a comprehended model to locate the hydrate deposition in natural gas flowlines. The present research is prepared to foresee the deposition location of solid particles that could occur in a real application in Compressed Natural Gas loading and offloading. A pipeline with 120 m length and different sizes carried a natural gas is taken in the study. The location of particle deposition formed as a result of restriction is determined based on the procedure mentioned earlier and the effect of water content and downstream pressure is studied. The critical flow speed that prevents such particle to accumulate in the certain pipe length is also addressed.

Keywords: hydrate deposition, compressed natural gas, marine transportation, oceanography

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Authors: Chengbin Wang, Li Lu, Luodan Suo, Qinghai Wang, Fan Yang, Xu Wang, Mona Marin

Abstract:

Background: Two-dose varicella vaccination has been recommended in Beijing since November 2012. We investigated a varicella outbreak in a highly vaccinated elementary school population to examine transmission patterns and risk factors for vaccine failure. Methods: A varicella case was defined as an acute generalized maculopapulovesicular rash without other apparent cause in a student attending the school from March 28 to May 17, 2015. Breakthrough varicella was defined as varicella >42 days after last vaccine dose. Vaccination information was collected from immunization records. Information on prior disease and clinical presentation was collected via survey of students’ parents. Results: Of the 1056 school students, 1028 (97.3%) reported no varicella history, of whom 364 (35.4%) had received 1-dose and 650 (63.2%) had received 2-dose varicella vaccine, for 98.6% school-wide vaccination coverage with ≥ 1 dose before the outbreak. A total of 20 cases were identified for an overall attack rate of 1.9%. The index case was in a 2-dose vaccinated student who was not isolated. The majority of cases were breakthrough (19/20, 95%) with attack rates of 7.1% (1/14), 1.6% (6/364) and 2.0% (13/650) among unvaccinated, 1-dose, and 2-dose students, respectively. Most cases had < 50 lesions (18/20, 90%). No difference was found between 1-dose and 2-dose breakthrough cases in disease severity or sociodemographic factors. Conclusion: Moderate 2-dose varicella vaccine coverage was insufficient to prevent a varicella outbreak. Two-dose breakthrough varicella is still contagious. High 2-dose varicella vaccine coverage and timely isolation of ill persons might be needed for varicella outbreak control in the 2-dose era.

Keywords: varicella, outbreak, breakthrough varicella, vaccination

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Authors: Nur Afiqah Mohd Kamal, Khamarrul Azahari Razak

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The earthquake aftermath has become a major concern, especially in high seismicity region. In Kundasang, Sabah, the earthquake on 5th June 2015 resulted in several catastrophes; landslides, rockfalls, mudflows and major slopes affected regardless of the series of the aftershocks. Certainly, the consequences of earthquake generate and induce the episodic disaster, not only life-threatening but it also affects infrastructure and economic development. Therefore, a need for investigating the change in land use and land cover (LULC) of post-earthquake geohazard is essential for identifying the extent of disastrous effects towards the development in Kundasang. With the advancement of remote sensing technology, post-earthquake geohazards (landslides, mudflows, rockfalls, debris flows) assessment can be evaluated by the employment of object-based image analysis in investigating the LULC change which consists of settlements, public infrastructure and vegetation cover. Therefore, this paper discusses the preliminary results on post-earthquakes geohazards distribution in Kundasang and evaluates the LULC classification effect upon the occurrences of geohazards event. The result of this preliminary analysis will provide an overview to determine the extent of geohazard impact on LULC. This research also provides beneficial input to the local authority in Kundasang about the risk of future structural development on the geohazard area.

Keywords: geohazard, land use land cover, object-based image analysis, remote sensing

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Authors: Nia McRae, Robert Wright, Ghalib Bello

Abstract:

Introduction: Postpartum depression is a prevalent mood disorder that is detrimental to the mental and physical health of mothers and their newborns. Lead (Pb) is a toxic metal that is associated with hormonal imbalance and mental impairments. The hormone changes that accompany pregnancy and childbirth may be exacerbated by Pb and increase new mothers’ susceptibility to postpartum depression. To the best of the author’s knowledge, this is the only study that investigates the association between prenatal Pb exposure and postpartum depression. Identifying risk factors can contribute to improved prevention and treatment strategies for postpartum depression. Methods: Data was derived from the Programming Research in Obesity, Growth, Environment and Social Stress (PROGRESS) study which is an ongoing longitudinal birth cohort. Postpartum depression was identified by a score of 13 or above on the 10-Item Edinburg Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) 6-months and 12-months postpartum. Pb was measured in the blood (BPb) in the second and third trimester and in the tibia and patella 1-month postpartum. Quantile regression models were used to assess the relationship between BPb and postpartum depression. Results: BPb in the second trimester was negatively associated with the 80th percentile of depression 6-months postpartum (β: -0.26; 95% CI: -0.51, -0.01). No significant association was found between BPb in the third trimester and depression 6-months postpartum. BPb in the third trimester exhibited an inverse relationship with the 60th percentile (β: -0.23; 95% CI: -0.41, -0.06), 70th percentile (β: -0.31; 95% CI: -0.52, -0.10), and 90th percentile of depression 12-months postpartum (β: -0.36; 95% CI: -0.69, -0.03). There was no significant association between BPb in the second trimester and depression 12-months postpartum. Bone Pb concentrations were not significantly associated with postpartum depression. Conclusion: The negative association between BPb and postpartum depression may support research which demonstrates lead is a nontherapeutic stimulant. Further research is needed to verify these results and identify effect modifiers.

Keywords: depression, lead, postpartum, prenatal

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Authors: William Cheng, Yuni Astria, Rini Sekartini

Abstract:

Background: Prevalence of anemia among school-aged children is relatively high (25.4%). This condition can affect children’s life, including cognitive function. One of the most common factors that is associated with anemia in children is nutritional status. This simple indicator will be very helpful in identifying more population at risk. The aim of this study is to correlate the clinical implication of nutritional status to the prevalence of anemia in children, with intention to determine a more effective nutritional status indicator in detecting anemia. Method: Anthropometric and haemoglobin status were gathered from children between 5 to 7-years-old in one of the urban areas in Jakarta in 2012. We identified children with haemoglobin level under 11.5 as anemia and correlated them to their WHO z-score from each of these indicators: Body Weight for Age (normal weight and underweight), Height for Age (not stunted and stunted), and Body Mass Index for Age (not wasted and wasted). Results: A total of 195 children were included in this research and 57 of them (29,2%) were diagnosed as anemia. The majority of the children had good nutritional status, however, 30 (15,4%) of them were found to be underweight, 33 (16,9%) were stunted, and 1 children (0,5%) was wasted. There were no overweight result found in this population. From the three nutritional status indicators, none proved to be statistically significant in relation to the incidence of anemia (p>0.05). Out of 33 children who were diagnosed as stunted, 36.36 % were found to have anemia, in comparison to 27,7% of children who were not stunted. Meanwhile, among 30 children who were diagnosed as underweight, 33,3 % of them were anemic whereas only 28,4% of the normal weight group were anemic. Conclusion: In this study, there is no significant correlation between anemia with any nutritional status indicator. However, more than a third of the stunted children are proven to have low haemoglobin status. The finding of stunting in children should be given more attention to further investigate for anemia.

Keywords: school-aged children, nutritional status, anemia, pediatrics

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Authors: Sarakorn Sukaviriya

Abstract:

This paper describes the inspection procedure, root cause analysis, the rectification of crack, and how to apply the procedure with other similar plants. During the operation of the steam turbine (620MW), instruments such as speed sensor of steam turbine, the servo valve of main stop valve and electrical wires were malfunction caused by leakage steam from main steam governing valve. Therefore, the power plant decided to shutdown steam turbines for figuring out the cause of leakage steam. Inspection techniques to be applied in this problem were microstructure testing (SEM), pipe stress analysis (FEM) and non-destructive testing. The crack was initially found on main governing valve’s weldment by visual inspection. To analyze more precisely, pipe stress analysis and microstructure testing were applied and results indicated that the crack was intergranular and originated from the weld defect. This weld defect caused the notch with high-stress concentration which created crack and then propagated to steam leakage. The major root cause of this problem was an inappropriate welding process, which created a weld defect. To repair this joint from damage, we used a welding technique by producing refinement of coarse grain HAZ and eliminating stress concentration. After the weldment was completely repaired, other adjacent weldments still had risk. Hence, to prevent any future cracks, non-destructive testing (NDT) shall be applied to all joints in order to ensure that there will be no indication of crack.

Keywords: steam-pipe leakage, steam leakage, weld crack analysis, weld defect

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Authors: Alireza Gholipour, Mergen H. Ghayesh, Anthony Zander, Stephen J. Nicholls, Peter J. Psaltis

Abstract:

A three-dimensional numerical model of an atherosclerotic coronary ‎artery is developed for the determination of high-risk situation and ‎hence heart attack prediction. Employing the finite element method ‎‎(FEM) using ANSYS, fluid-structure interaction (FSI) model of the ‎artery is constructed to determine the shear stress distribution as well ‎as the von Mises stress field. A flexible model for an atherosclerotic ‎coronary artery conveying pulsatile blood is developed incorporating ‎three-dimensionality, artery’s tapered shape via a linear function for ‎artery wall distribution, motion of the artery, blood viscosity via the ‎non-Newtonian flow theory, blood pulsation via use of one-period ‎heartbeat, hyperelasticity via the Mooney-Rivlin model, viscoelasticity ‎via the Prony series shear relaxation scheme, and micro-calcification ‎inside the plaque. The material properties used to relate the stress field ‎to the strain field have been extracted from clinical data from previous ‎in-vitro studies. The determined stress fields has potential to be used as ‎a predictive tool for plaque rupture and dissection.‎ The results show that stress concentration due to micro-calcification ‎increases the von Mises stress significantly; chance of developing a ‎crack inside the plaque increases. Moreover, the blood pulsation varies ‎the stress distribution substantially for some cases.‎

Keywords: atherosclerosis, fluid-structure interaction‎, coronary arteries‎, pulsatile flow

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Authors: Marzieh Sayyad, Mohsen Salesi

Abstract:

Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a collection of cardiometabolic risk factors, is linked to the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and diabetes. The prevalence of MetS is on the rise with more women affected than men. The goal of this study was to compare the effects of resistance and aerobic exercise training on metabolic syndrome components in non-athlete, middle-aged woman. 51 non-athlete overweight female participated voluntarily in this study. Participants were divided randomly into three groups including resistance, aerobic and control group (number of each group 17). 24 hours before the beginning of training program, the blood sample was taken in fasting state. The two training groups participated in sport activities for eight weeks, three times a week duration 60-90 minutes. Two days following the end of the 8th week, all the measurements were performed similar to the pretest phase. The data was analyzed using one-way analysis of variance. The results showed that aerobic exercise training significantly decreased weight (p=.05), triglyceride (p<0.01) and systolic blood pressure (p<0.02) and HDL-c (p<0.01) was significantly increased. Also in resistance exercise training group TG decreased significantly (p<0.01) and HDL-c (p<0.05) was significantly increased. This study demonstrated that a regular physical activity program improved several metabolic and physiological parameters in healthy, previously sedentary subjects with the metabolic syndrome. In conclusion, it seems that this type of training can be efficient, safe and inexpensive way in order to reduce and prevent metabolic syndrome.

Keywords: aerobic exercise, metabolic syndrome, overweight sedentary female, resistance exercise

Procedia PDF Downloads 287