Search results for: accounting values

Authors: A. Didaoui, N. Benhalima, M. Elkeurti, A. Chouaih, F. Hamzaoui

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The monomer and dimer structures of the title molecule have been obtained from density functional theory (DFT) B3LYP method with 6-31G(d,p) as basis set calculations. The optimized geometrical parameters obtained by B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) method show good agreement with experimental X-ray data. The polarizability and first order hyperpolarizability of the title molecule were calculated and interpreted. The intermolecular N–H•••O hydrogen bonds are discussed in dimer structure of the molecule. The vibrational wave numbers and their assignments were examined theoretically using the Gaussian 03 set of quantum chemistry codes. The predicted frontier molecular orbital energies at B3LYP/6-31G(d,p) method set show that charge transfer occurs within the molecule. The frontier molecular orbital calculations clearly show the inverse relationship of HOMO–LUMO gap with the total static hyperpolarizability. The results also show that N-(2-Methylphenyl)-2-nitrobenzenesulfonamide molecule may have nonlinear optical (NLO) comportment with non-zero values.

Keywords: DFT, Gaussian 03, NLO, N-(2-Methylphenyl)-2-nitrobenzenesulfonamide, polarizability

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Authors: Dwarakanadha Reddy Peram, D. Swarnalatha, C. Gopinath

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The main aim of this research work was to design and development characterization of Pioglitazone transdermal drug delivery system by using various polymers such as Olibanum with different concentration by solvent evaporation technique. The prepared formulations were evaluated for different physicochemical characteristics like thickness, folding endurance, drug content, percentage moisture absorption, percentage moisture loss, percentage elongation break test and weight uniformity. The diffusion studies were performed by using modified Franz diffusion cells. The result of dissolution studies shows that formulation, F3 (Olibanum with 50 mg) showed maximum release of 99.95 % in 12hrs, whereas F1 (Olibanum and EC backing membrane) showed minimum release of 93.65% in 12 hr. Based on the drug release and physicochemical values obtained the formulation F3 is considered as an optimized formulation which shows higher percentage of drug release of 99.95 % in 12 hr. The developed transdermal patches increase the therapeutic efficacy and reduced toxic effect of pioglitazone.

Keywords: pioglitazone, olibanum, transdermal drug delivery system, drug release percantage

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Authors: Özge Yılmaz Gel, Berk Kılıç, Derin Dalgıç, Ela Mia Sevilla Levi, Ömer Aydın

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In this experiment, our goal was to remove heavy metals from water. Most recent studies have used removing toxic heavy elements: Cu⁺², Cr⁺³ and Fe⁺³ ions from aqueous solutions has been previously investigated with different kinds of plants like kiwi and tangerines. However, in this study, three different fruit peels were used. We tested banana, peach, and potato peels to remove heavy metal ions from their solution. The first step of the experiment was to wash the peels with distilled water and then dry the peels in an oven for 48 hrs at 80°C. Once the peels were washed and dried, 0.2 grams were weighed and added into 200 mL of %0.1 percent heavy metal solutions by mass. The mixing process was done via a magnetic stirrer. Each sample was taken in 15-minute intervals, and absorbance changes of the solutions were detected using a UV-Vis Spectrophotometer. Among the used waste products, banana peel was the most efficient one. Moreover, the amount of fruit peel, pH values of the initial heavy metal solution, and initial concentration of heavy metal solutions were investigated to determine the effect of fruit peels.

Keywords: absorbance, heavy metal, removal of heavy metals, fruit peels

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Authors: Raed H. Allawi

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Formation pressure is the most critical parameter in hydrocarbon exploration and exploitation. Specifically, predicting abnormal pressures (high formation pressures) and subnormal pressure zones can provide valuable information to minimize uncertainty for anticipated drilling challenges and risks. This study aims to interpret and delineate the pore and fracture pressure of the Mishrif reservoir in the southern Iraq Oilfield. The data required to implement this study included acoustic compression wave, gamma-ray, bulk density, and drilling events. Furthermore, supporting these models needs the pore pressure measurement from the Modular Formation Dynamics Tester (MDT). Many measured values of pore pressure were used to validate the accurate model. Using sonic velocity approaches, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) was about 4%. The fracture pressure results were consistent with the measurement data, actual drilling report, and events. The model's results will be a guide for successful drilling in future wells in the same oilfield.

Keywords: pore pressure, fracture pressure, overburden pressure, effective stress, drilling events

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Authors: Jazlah Majeed Sulaiman, Lakshmi P.

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Concrete slabs are considered to be very ductile structural members. Openings in reinforced slabs are necessary so as to install the mechanical, electrical and pumping (MEP) conduits and ducts. However, these openings reduce the load-carrying capacity, stiffness, energy, and ductility of the slabs. To resolve the undesirable effects of openings in the slab behavior, it is significant to achieve the desired strength against the loads acting on it. The use of Basalt Fiber Reinforcement Polymers (BFRP) as reinforcement has become a valid sustainable option as they produce less greenhouse gases, resist corrosion and have higher tensile strength. In this paper, five slab models are analyzed using non-linear static analysis in ANSYS Workbench to study the effect of openings on slabs reinforced with basalt bars. A parametric numerical study on the loading condition and the shape and size of the opening is conducted, and their load and displacement values are compared. One of the models is validated experimentally.

Keywords: concrete slabs, openings, BFRP, sustainable, corrosion resistant, non-linear static analysis, ANSYS

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Authors: Vijay Vir Singh

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This work is focused studying the Linux operating system connected in a LAN (local area network). The STAR topology (to be called subsystem-1) and BUS topology (to be called subsystem-2) are taken into account, which are placed at two different locations and connected to a server through a hub. In the both topologies BUS topology and STAR topology, we have assumed n clients. The system has two types of failures i.e. partial failure and complete failure. Further, the partial failure has been categorized as minor and major partial failure. It is assumed that the minor partial failure degrades the sub-systems and the major partial failure make the subsystem break down mode. The system may completely fail due to failure of server hacking and blocking etc. The system is studied using supplementary variable technique and Laplace transform by using different types of failure and two types of repair. The various measures of reliability for example, availability of system, reliability of system, MTTF, profit function for different parametric values have been discussed.

Keywords: star topology, bus topology, blocking, hacking, Linux operating system, Gumbel-Hougaard family copula, supplementary variable

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Authors: Tholaine Matadi

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South Africa is a democratic country with a historical record of racially-motivated marginalisation and exclusion of the majority. During the apartheid era the country was run along pieces of legislation and policies based on racial segregation. The system held a tight clamp on interracial mixing which forced people to remain in segregated areas. For example, a citizen from the Indian community could not own property in an area allocated to white people. In this way, a great majority of people were denied basic human rights. Now, there is a supreme constitution with an entrenched justiciable Bill of Rights founded on democratic values of social justice, human dignity, equality and the advancement of human rights and freedoms. The Constitution also enshrines the values of non-racialism and non-sexism. The Constitutional Court has the power to declare unconstitutional any law or conduct considered to be inconsistent with it. Now, more than two decades down the line, despite the abolition of apartheid, there is evidence that South Africa still experiences hate crimes which violate the entrenched right of vulnerable groups not to be discriminated against on the basis of race, sexual orientation, gender, national origin, occupation, or disability. To remedy this mischief parliament has responded by drafting the Prevention and Combatting of Hate Crimes and Hate Speech Bill. The Bill has been disseminated for public comment and suggestions. It is intended to combat hate crimes and hate speech based on sheer prejudice. The other purpose of the Bill is to bring South Africa in line with international human rights instruments against racism, racial discrimination, xenophobia and related expressions of intolerance identified in several international instruments. It is against this backdrop that this paper intends to analyse the impact of the Bill on the rights to human dignity, equality, and freedom. This study is significant because the Bill was highly contested and creates a huge debate. This study relies on a qualitative evaluative approach based on desktop and library research. The article recurs to primary and secondary sources. For comparative purpose, the paper compares South Africa with countries such as Australia, Canada, Kenya, Cuba, and United Kingdom which have criminalised hate crimes and hate speech. The finding from this study is that despite the Bill’s expressed positive intentions, this draft legislation is problematic for several reasons. The main reason is that it generates considerable controversy mostly because it is considered to infringe the right to freedom of expression. Though the author suggests that the Bill should not be rejected in its entirety, she notes the brutal psychological effect of hate crimes on their direct victims and the writer emphasises that a legislature can succeed to combat hate-crimes only if it provides for them as a separate stand-alone category of offences. In view of these findings, the study recommended that since hate speech clauses have a negative impact on freedom of expression it can be promulgated, subject to the legislature enacting the Prevention and Combatting of Hate-Crimes Bill as a stand-alone law which criminalises hate crimes.

Keywords: freedom of expression, hate crimes, hate speech, human dignity

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Authors: Alaa M. Younis, Ismail S. Ismail, Lamiaa I. Mohamedein, Shimaa F. Ahmed

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Sandy surface sediments collected from fourteen sites along the gulfs of Suez and Aqaba coasts, Egypt were analyzed for heavy metals including Iron, Manganese, Zinc, Chromium, Nickel, Lead, Copper and Cadmium in order to evaluate the pollution status and environmental risk assessment of the study area. The obtained results showed that the concentrations of investigated metals are represented in the following sequence; For Gulf of Aqaba sediments Fe > Mn > Zn > Pb > Cr > Ni > Cu > Cd. While for Gulf of Suez Sediments Fe > Mn > Pb > Zn > Cu > Cr > Ni > Cd. The degree of surface sediment contamination using Geo-accumulation index (I geo) and Metal Pollution Index (MPI) was computed. Higher MPI values were observed at the sites III (Nama Bay) and VIII (Rex Beach). According to Sediment quality guidelines (SQGs) approach, Pb and Cu in the gulf of Suez at station IX (Kabanon Beach) had probably adverse ecological effects to marine organisms.

Keywords: heavy metal, environmental risk, Suez gulf, Aqaba gulf

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Authors: Jung Hyoung Yoon

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This paper examines ways of building socio-economic sustainability for artists with cognitive disabilities who pursue professional artistic careers in Australia. It investigates two case studies of supported studios in terms of management, inclusivity and accessibility to facilitate professional development and create socio-economic values for artists with cognitive disabilities. This study uses semi-structured interviews with key art directors and staff of supported studios to unfold their experiences on the professional development of artists with cognitive disability at the individual, organizational and societal levels. It also analyses secondary data collection related to management, business strategic plans and marketing. This paper discusses the potentials of socio-economic sustainability for artists with cognitive disabilities through their art practice and careers, as well as the central role of the supported studio in order to achieve such goals for individual artists.

Keywords: artists with cognitive disability, inclusive management, professional development, socio-economic sustainability

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Authors: Chuan Yin

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Cancer stem cells (CSCs) represent a subpopulation of cancer cells that possess the characteristics associated with normal stem cells. CD133 is a phenotype of melanoma CSCs responsible for melanoma metastasis and drug resistance. Although adriamycin (ADR) is commonly used drug in melanoma therapy, but it is ineffective in the treatment of melanoma CSCs. In this study, we constructed CD133 antibody conjugated ADR immunoliposomes (ADR-Lip-CD133) to target CD133+ melanoma CSCs. The results showed that the immunoliposomes possessed a small particle size (~150 nm), high drug encapsulation efficiency (~90%). After 72 hr treatment on the WM266-4 melanoma tumorspheres, the IC50 values of the drug formulated in ADR-Lip-CD133, ADR-Lip (ADR liposomes) and ADR are found to be 24.42, 57.13 and 59.98 ng/ml respectively, suggesting that ADR-Lip-CD133 was more effective than ADR-Lip and ADR. Significantly, ADR-Lip-CD133 could almost completely abolish the tumorigenic ability of WM266-4 tumorspheres in vivo, and showed the best therapeutic effect in WM266-4 melanoma xenograft mice. It is noteworthy that ADR-Lip-CD133 could selectively kill CD133+ melanoma CSCs of WM266-4 cells both in vitro and in vivo. ADR-Lip-CD133 represent a potential approach in targeting and killing CD133+ melanoma CSCs.

Keywords: cancer stem cells, melanoma, immunoliposomes, CD133

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Authors: Turki M. Habeebullah, Atef M. F. Mohammed, Essam A. Morsy

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In recent decades, particulate matter (PM10) have received much attention due to its potential adverse health impact and the subsequent need to better control or regulate these pollutants. The aim of this paper is focused on study risk assessment of PM10 in four different districts (Shebikah, Masfalah, Aziziyah, Awali) in Makkah, Saudi Arabia during the period from 1 Ramadan 1434 AH - 27 Safar 1435 AH. samples was collected by using Low Volume Sampler (LVS Low Volume Sampler) device and filtration method for estimating the total concentration of PM10. The study indicated that the mean PM10 concentrations were 254.6 (186.1 - 343.2) µg/m3 in Shebikah, 184.9 (145.6 - 271.4) µg/m3 in Masfalah, 162.4 (92.4 - 253.8) µg/m3 in Aziziyah, and 56.0 (44.5 - 119.8) µg/m3 in Awali. These values did not exceed the permissible limits in PME (340 µg/m3 as daily average). Furthermore, health assessment is carried out using AirQ2.2.3 model to estimate the number of hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases. The cumulative number of cases per 100,000 were 1534 (18-3050 case), which lower than that recorded in the United States, Malaysia. The concentration response coefficient was 0.49 (95% CI 0.05 - 0.70) per 10 μg/m3 increase of PM10.

Keywords: air pollution, respiratory diseases, airQ2.2.3, Makkah

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Authors: Bashar Mudhaffar Abdullah, Hasniza Zaman Huri, Nany Hairunisa

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This study was carried out to determine the thermal properties and spectroscopy study of Malaysian Jatropha curcas seed oil. The J. curcas seed oil physicochemical properties such as free fatty acid (FFA %), acid value, saponification value, iodine value, unsaponifiable matter, and viscosity (cp) gave values of 1.89±0.10%, 3.76±0.07, 203.36±0.36 mg/g, 4.90±0.25, 1.76±0.03%, and 32, respectively. Gas chromatography (GC) was used to determine the fatty acids (FAs) composition. J. curcas seed oil is consisting of saturated FAs (19.55%) such as palmitic (13.19%), palmitoleic (0.40%), and stearic (6.36%) acids and unsaturated FAs (80.42%) such as oleic (43.32%) and linoleic (36.70%) acids. The thermal properties using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) showed that crystallized TAG was observed at -6.79°C. The melting curves displayed three major exothermic regions of J. curcas seed oil, monounsaturated (lower-temperature peak) at -31.69°C, di-unsaturated (medium temperature peak) at -20.23°C and tri-unsaturated (higher temperature peak) at -12.72°C. The results of this study showed that the J. curcas seed oil is a plausible source of polyunsaturated fatty acid (PUFA) to be developed in the future for pharmaceutical applications.

Keywords: Jatropha curcas seed oil, thermal properties, crystallization, melting, spectroscopy

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Authors: Jan-Tore H. Horn, Jørgen Juncher Jensen

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Uncertainties related to fatigue damage estimation of non-linear systems are highly dependent on the tail behaviour and extreme values of the stress range distribution. By using a combination of the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS), the accuracy of the fatigue estimations may be improved for the same computational efforts. The method is applied to a bottom-fixed, monopile-supported large offshore wind turbine, which is a non-linear and dynamically sensitive system. Different curve fitting techniques to the fatigue damage distribution have been used depending on the sea-state dependent response characteristics, and the effect of a bi-linear S-N curve is discussed. Finally, analyses are performed on several environmental conditions to investigate the long-term applicability of this multistep method. Wave loads are calculated using state-of-the-art theory, while wind loads are applied with a simplified model based on rotor thrust coefficients.

Keywords: fatigue damage, FORM, monopile, Monte Carlo, simulation, wind turbine

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Authors: A. A. Okafor, C. H. Achebe, J. L. Chukwuneke, C. G. Ozoegwu

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The performance of an engine whose basic design parameters are known can be predicted with the assistance of simulation programs into the less time, cost and near value of actual. This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical model of the performance parameters of four stroke spark ignition engine. The essence of this research work is to develop a mathematical model for the analysis of engine performance parameters of four stroke spark ignition engine before embarking on full scale construction, this will ensure that only optimal parameters are in the design and development of an engine and also allow to check and develop the design of the engine and it’s operation alternatives in an inexpensive way and less time, instead of using experimental method which requires costly research test beds. To achieve this, equations were derived which describe the performance parameters (sfc, thermal efficiency, mep and A/F). The equations were used to simulate and optimize the engine performance of the model for various engine speeds. The optimal values obtained for the developed bivariate mathematical models are: sfc is 0.2833kg/kwh, efficiency is 28.77% and a/f is 20.75.

Keywords: bivariate models, engine performance, injector engine, optimization, performance parameters, simulation, spark ignition

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Authors: Elena B. Cherepetskaya, Alexander A.Karabutov, Vladimir A. Makarov, Elena A. Mironova, Ivan A. Shibaev

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In our study, the object of laser ultrasonic testing was plane-parallel plate of shungit (length 41 mm, width 31 mm, height 15 mm, medium exchange density 2247 kg/m3). We used laser-ultrasonic defectoscope with wideband opto-acoustic transducer in our investigation of the velocities of longitudinal and shear elastic ultrasound waves. The duration of arising elastic pulses was less than 100 ns. Under known material thickness, the values of the velocities were determined by the time delay of the pulses reflected from the bottom surface of the sample with respect to reference pulses. The accuracy of measurement was 0.3% in the case of longitudinal wave velocity and 0.5% in the case of shear wave velocity (scanning pitch along the surface was 2 mm). On the base of found velocities of elastic waves, local elastic moduli of shungit (Young modulus, shear modulus and Poisson's ratio) were uniquely determined.

Keywords: laser ultrasonic testing , local elastic moduli, shear wave velocity, shungit

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Authors: M. Aruna

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Emphasis on the advancement of new materials and technology has been there for the past few decades. The global development towards using cheap and durable materials from renewable resources contributes to sustainable development. An experimental investigation of mechanical behaviour of sisal fiber-reinforced concrete is reported for making a suitable building material in terms of reinforcement. Fibre reinforced composite is one such material, which has reformed the concept of high strength. Sisal fibres are abundantly available in the hot areas. The sisal fiber has emerged as a reinforcing material for concretes, used in civil structures. In this work, properties such as hardness and tensile strength of sisal fibre reinforced cement composites with 6, 12, 18, and 24% by weight of sisal fibres were assessed. Sisal fiber reinforced cement composite slabs with long sisal fibers were manufactured using a cast hand layup technique. Mechanical response was measured under tension. The high energy absorption capacity of the developed composite system was reflected in high toughness values under tension respectively.

Keywords: sisal fibre, fiber-reinforced concrete, mechanical behaviour, composite materials

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Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu,

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We proposed a Hyperbolic Gompertz Growth Model (HGGM), which was developed by introducing a stabilizing parameter called θ using hyperbolic sine function into the classical gompertz growth equation. The resulting integral solution obtained deterministically was reprogrammed into a statistical model and used in modeling the height and diameter of Pines (Pinus caribaea). Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical gompertz growth model, an approach which mimicked the natural variability of height/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using goodness of fit tests and model selection criteria. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the compliance of the error term to normality assumptions while using testing the independence of the error term using the runs test. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic gompertz growth models better than the source model (classical gompertz growth model) while the results of R2, Adj. R2, MSE, and AIC confirmed the predictive power of the Hyperbolic Monomolecular growth models over its source model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, gompertz

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Authors: Tathiana Yesenia Coy Mondragón, Jossitt William Vargas Cruz, Cristian Leonardo Gutiérrez Gómez

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The study of cosmic rays is based on two fundamental pillars: the detection of secondary cosmic rays on the Earth's surface and the detection of the source and origin of the cascade. In addition, the constant flow of RC generates a lot of interest for study due to the incidence of various natural phenomena, which makes it relevant to characterize their incidence parameters to determine their effect not only at subsoil or terrestrial surface levels but also throughout the atmosphere. To determine the physical parameters of the primary cosmic ray, the implementation of robust algorithms capable of reconstructing the cascade from the measured values is required, with a high level of reliability. Therefore, it is proposed to build a machine learning system that will be fed from the cosmic ray simulations in CORSIKA at different energies that lie in a range [10⁹-10¹²] eV. in order to generate a trained particle and pattern recognition system to obtain greater efficiency when inferring the nature of the origin of the cascade for EAS in the atmosphere considering atmospheric models.

Keywords: CORSIKA, cosmic rays, eas, Colombia

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Authors: David F. Nettleton, Elodie Bugnicourt, Christian Wasiak, Alejandro Rosales

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In this presentation, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two different industrial winding MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) processes using machine learning techniques. In contrast to previous approaches which have typically used ‘black-box’ linear statistical methods together with a definition of the mechanical behavior of the process, we use non-linear machine learning algorithms together with a ‘white-box’ rule induction technique to create a supervised model of the fitting error between the expected and real force measures. The final objective is to build a precise model of the winding process in order to control de-tension of the material being wound in the first case, and the friction of the material passing through the die, in the second case. Case 1, Tension Control of a Winding Process. A plastic web is unwound from a first reel, goes over a traction reel and is rewound on a third reel. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the web tension and (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given tension. Case 2, Friction Force Control of a Micro-Pullwinding Process. A core+resin passes through a first die, then two winding units wind an outer layer around the core, and a final pass through a second die. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the friction on die2; (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given friction on die2. Different machine learning approaches are tested to build models, Kernel Ridge Regression, Support Vector Regression (with a Radial Basis Function Kernel) and MPART (Rule Induction with continuous value as output). As a previous step, the MPART rule induction algorithm was used to build an explicative model of the error (the difference between expected and real friction on die2). The modeling of the error behavior using explicative rules is used to help improve the overall process model. Once the models are built, the inputs are calibrated by generating Gaussian random numbers for each input (taking into account its mean and standard deviation) and comparing the output to a target (desired) output until a closest fit is found. The results of empirical testing show that a high precision is obtained for the trained models and for the calibration process. The learning step is the slowest part of the process (max. 5 minutes for this data), but this can be done offline just once. The calibration step is much faster and in under one minute obtained a precision error of less than 1x10-3 for both outputs. To summarize, in the present work two processes have been modeled and calibrated. A fast processing time and high precision has been achieved, which can be further improved by using heuristics to guide the Gaussian calibration. Error behavior has been modeled to help improve the overall process understanding. This has relevance for the quick optimal set up of many different industrial processes which use a pull-winding type process to manufacture fibre reinforced plastic parts. Acknowledgements to the Openmind project which is funded by Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, Grant Agreement number 680820

Keywords: data model, machine learning, industrial winding, calibration

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Authors: Granch Berhe Tseghai, Lodrick Wangatia Makokha

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Cotton dyeing using reactive dyes is one of the major water polluter; this is due to large amount of dye and salt remaining in effluent. Recent adverse climate change and its associated effect to human life have lead to search for more sustainable industrial production. Cationization of cotton to improve its affinity for reactive dye has been earmarked as a major solution for dyeing of cotton with no or less salt. Synthetic cationizing agents of ammonium salt have already been commercialized. However, in nature there are proteinous products which are rich in amino and ammonium salts which can be carefully harnessed to be used as cationizing agent for cotton. The hoofs and horns have successfully been used to cationize cotton so as to improve cotton affinity to the dye. The cationization action of the hoof and horn extract on cotton was confirmed by dyeing the pretreated fabric without salt and comparing it with conventionally dyed and untreated salt free dyed fabric. UV-VIS absorption results showed better dye absorption (62.5% and 50% dye bath exhaustion percentage for cationized and untreated respectively) while K/S values of treated samples were similar to conventional sample.

Keywords: cationization, cotton, proteinous products, reactive dyes

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Authors: Ksenija Dumičić, Anita Čeh Časni, Berislav Žmuk

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The aim of this paper is to select the most accurate forecasting method for predicting the future values of the unemployment rate in selected European countries. In order to do so, several forecasting techniques adequate for forecasting time series with trend component, were selected, namely: double exponential smoothing (also known as Holt`s method) and Holt-Winters` method which accounts for trend and seasonality. The results of the empirical analysis showed that the optimal model for forecasting unemployment rate in Greece was Holt-Winters` additive method. In the case of Spain, according to MAPE, the optimal model was double exponential smoothing model. Furthermore, for Croatia and Italy the best forecasting model for unemployment rate was Holt-Winters` multiplicative model, whereas in the case of Portugal the best model to forecast unemployment rate was Double exponential smoothing model. Our findings are in line with European Commission unemployment rate estimates.

Keywords: European Union countries, exponential smoothing methods, forecast accuracy unemployment rate

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Authors: Farzingohar Mehrnaz, Yasemi Mehran, Esmaili Zinat, Baharlouian Maedeh

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Aboozar (Ardeshir) and Bahregansar are the two important Iranian oilfields in Persian Gulf waters. The operation activities cause to create spills which impacted on the marine environment. Assumed spills are molded by ADIOS II (Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills) which is NOAA’s weathering oil software. Various atmospheric and marine data with different oil types are used for the modeling. Numerous scenarios for 100 bbls with mean daily air temperature and wind speed are input for 5 days. To find the model sensitivity in each setting, one parameter is changed, but the others stayed constant. In both fields, the evaporated and dispersed output values increased hence the remaining rate is reduced. The results clarified that wind speed first, second air temperature and finally oil type respectively were the most effective factors on the oil weathering process. The obtained results can help the emergency systems to predict the floating (dispersed and remained) volume spill in order to find the suitable cleanup tools and methods.

Keywords: ADIOS, modeling, oil spill, sensitivity analysis

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Authors: Adeyemi, Samuel Olusegun

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Biometrics and dietary habit of Citharinus citharus in the lower Niger River area of kogi state were studied between October and December, 2010. A total of 120 fish sampled were used for the study. The total length, standard length and weight were taken for each fish sample for the estimations of length-weight relationship using the formula W = aLb and transformed to Log W = Log a + b Log L. Stomach contents were analyzed by frequency of occurrence method. The standard length of males, females and combined sexes ranged between 6.8 - 16.5, 7.3 – 14.3 cm, 6.8 – 74.2 (cm) respectively, with b – values of 3.0963, 3.174 and 3.1382. The condition factor ranged from 2.04 – 2.80, 1.88 – 2.86 and 1.88 – 2.86 respectively. The food and feeding habits shows that the fish feeds mainly sand grain (25.83%), mud (24.16%), plant parts (12.50%), insect part (2.50%), algae (12.50%) and unidentified items (5.00%). C. citharus in the lower Niger area of kogi state could be termed to an omnivore. River Niger could be said to be suitable for growth and survival of the fish species C. citharus.

Keywords: length-weight, sexes, stomach content, feeding habits, plant materials

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Authors: Patarawan Sangnawakij, Sa-Aat Niwitpong

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In this paper, we proposed two new confidence intervals for the difference of coefficients of variation, CIw and CIs, in two independent gamma distributions. These proposed confidence intervals using the close form method of variance estimation which was presented by Donner and Zou (2010) based on concept of Wald and Score confidence interval, respectively. Monte Carlo simulation study is used to evaluate the performance, coverage probability and expected length, of these confidence intervals. The results indicate that values of coverage probabilities of the new confidence interval based on Wald and Score are satisfied the nominal coverage and close to nominal level 0.95 in various situations, particularly, the former proposed confidence interval is better when sample sizes are small. Moreover, the expected lengths of the proposed confidence intervals are nearly difference when sample sizes are moderate to large. Therefore, in this study, the confidence interval for the difference of coefficients of variation which based on Wald is preferable than the other one confidence interval.

Keywords: confidence interval, score’s interval, wald’s interval, coefficient of variation, gamma distribution, simulation study

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Authors: Selin Guney, Andres Riquelme

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Among the main purposes of optimal and efficient forecasts of agricultural commodity prices is to guide the firms to advance the economic decision making process such as planning business operations and marketing decisions. Governments are also the beneficiaries and suppliers of agricultural price forecasts. They use this information to establish a proper agricultural policy, and hence, the forecasts affect social welfare and systematic errors in forecasts could lead to a misallocation of scarce resources. Various empirical approaches have been applied to forecast commodity prices that have used different methodologies. Most commonly-used approaches to forecast commodity sectors depend on classical time series models that assume values of the response variables are precise which is quite often not true in reality. Recently, this literature has mostly evolved to a consideration of fuzzy time series models that provide more flexibility in terms of the classical time series models assumptions such as stationarity, and large sample size requirement. Besides, fuzzy modeling approach allows decision making with estimated values under incomplete information or uncertainty. A number of fuzzy time series models have been developed and implemented over the last decades; however, most of them are not appropriate for forecasting repeated and nonconsecutive transitions in the data. The modeling scheme used in this paper eliminates this problem by introducing Markov modeling approach that takes into account both the repeated and nonconsecutive transitions. Also, the determination of length of interval is crucial in terms of the accuracy of forecasts. The problem of determining the length of interval arbitrarily is overcome and a methodology to determine the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series to improve forecast accuracy is proposed. The specific purpose of this paper is to propose and investigate the potential of a new forecasting model that integrates methodologies for determining the proper length of interval based on the distribution or mean of the first differences of series and Fuzzy Time Series- Markov Chain model. Moreover, the accuracy of the forecasting performance of proposed integrated model is compared to different univariate time series models and the superiority of proposed method over competing methods in respect of modelling and forecasting on the basis of forecast evaluation criteria is demonstrated. The application is to daily corn and soybean prices observed at three commercially important North Carolina markets; Candor, Cofield and Roaring River for corn and Fayetteville, Cofield and Greenville City for soybeans respectively. One main conclusion from this paper is that using fuzzy logic improves the forecast performance and accuracy; the effectiveness and potential benefits of the proposed model is confirmed with small selection criteria value such MAPE. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of integrating fuzzy logic and nonarbitrary determination of length of interval for the reliability and accuracy of price forecasts. The empirical results represent a significant contribution to our understanding of the applicability of fuzzy modeling in commodity price forecasts.

Keywords: commodity, forecast, fuzzy, Markov

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Authors: Linyi Fan, C.J. Schumaker

Abstract:

Background: Biomedical efforts to treat Alzheimer’s disease (AD) have typically produced mixed to poor results, while more lifestyle-focused treatments such as exercise may fare better than existing biomedical treatments. A few promising studies have indicated that activities of daily life (ADL) may be a useful way of predicting AD. However, the existing cross-sectional studies fail to show how functional-related issues such as ADL in early years predict AD and how social factors influence health either in addition to or in interaction with individual risk factors. This study would helpbetterscreening and early treatments for the elderly population and healthcare practice. The findings have significance academically and practically in terms of creating positive social change. Methodology: The purpose of this quantitative historical, correlational study was to examine the relationship between early years’ ADL and the development of AD in later years. The studyincluded 4,526participantsderived fromRAND HRS dataset. The Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is a longitudinal household survey data set that is available forresearchof retirement and health among the elderly in the United States. The sample was selected by the completion of survey questionnaire about AD and dementia. The variablethat indicates whether the participant has been diagnosed with AD was the dependent variable. The ADL indices and changes in ADL were the independent variables. A four-step multilevel regression model approach was utilized to address the research questions. Results: Amongst 4,526 patients who completed the AD and dementia questionnaire, 144 (3.1%) were diagnosed with AD. Of the 4,526 participants, 3,465 (76.6%) have high school and upper education degrees,4,074 (90.0%) were above poverty threshold. The model evaluatedthe effect of ADL and change in ADL on onset of AD in late years while allowing the intercept of the model to vary by level of education. The results suggested that the only significant predictor of the onset of AD was changes in early years’ ADL (b = 20.253, z = 2.761, p < .05). However, the result of the sensitivity analysis (b = 7.562, z = 1.900, p =.058), which included more control variables and increased the observation period of ADL, are not supported this finding. The model also estimated whether the variances of random effect vary by Level-2 variables. The results suggested that the variances associated with random slopes were approximately zero, suggesting that the relationship between early years’ ADL were not influenced bysociodemographic factors. Conclusion: The finding indicated that an increase in changes in ADL leads to an increase in the probability of onset AD in the future. However, this finding is not support in a broad observation period model. The study also failed to reject the hypothesis that the sociodemographic factors explained significant amounts of variance in random effect. Recommendations were then made for future research and practice based on these limitations and the significance of the findings.

Keywords: alzheimer’s disease, epidemiology, moderation, multilevel modeling

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Authors: Khaled A. Madi, Rema A. Mousbahi, Mostafa B. Abuitbel, Abdualhakim O. Nagi

Abstract:

Antenna perhaps is the most important part of any communication system, it determines the overall efficiency and the direction of radiation of the system. Antennas vary in shape and size on a very wide range. For fast moving vehicles, the antenna should offer as litter aerodynamic resistance as possible. Slot antenna is best suited for this purpose. It offers very little aerodynamic resistance, compact, easy to feed and fabricate. This work presented in this paper deals with the investigation of a half wave slot antenna. The antenna has been studied, analyzed, designed, simulated, fabrication, and tested at the X-band. The field of antenna study is an extremely vast one, and to grasp the fundamentals, two pronged approaches have been used, and the focus was on the fabrication and testing of a slot waveguide directional antenna. Focuses on the design and simulation of slot antennas with an emphasis on optimization of a 9.1 GHz a rectangular waveguide have been used to feed slot antenna. A microwave fed slot antenna used in the communication lab was also simulated. The results have been presented and compared with the expected values, where a good agreement was achieved between the simulation and experimental results.

Keywords: microwave, slot antenna, simulation, fabrication

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Authors: Mohammad Sahadet Hossain, Shamsil Arifeen, Mehrab Hossian Likhon

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In this paper, we analyze a linear time invariant (LTI) descriptor system of large dimension. Since these systems are difficult to simulate, compute and store, we attempt to reduce this large system using Low Rank Cholesky Factorized Alternating Directions Implicit (LRCF-ADI) iteration followed by Square Root Balanced Truncation. LRCF-ADI solves the dual Lyapunov equations of the large system and gives low-rank Cholesky factors of the gramians as the solution. Using these cholesky factors, we compute the Hankel singular values via singular value decomposition. Later, implementing square root balanced truncation, the reduced system is obtained. The bode plots of original and lower order systems are used to show that the magnitude and phase responses are same for both the systems.

Keywords: low-rank cholesky factor alternating directions implicit iteration, LTI Descriptor system, Lyapunov equations, Square-root balanced truncation

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Authors: K. H. Yang, T. C. Yeh, P. S. Lu, F. C. Yang, T. Y. Wu, W. J. Sung

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In this study, a series of full-scale hot smoke tests has been conducted to validate the performances of the smoke management system in the WWY center for arts before grand opening. Totaled 19 scenarios has been established and experimented with fire sizes ranging from 2 MW to 10 MW. The measured ASET data provided by the smoke management system experimentation were compared with the computer-simulated RSET values for egress during the design phase. The experimental result indicated that this system could successfully provide a safety margin of 200% and ensure a safe evacuation in case of fire in the WWY project, including worst-cases and fail-safe scenarios. The methodology developed and results obtained in this project can provide a useful reference for future applications, such as for the large-scale indoor sports dome and arena, stadium, shopping malls, airport terminals, and stations or tunnels for railway and subway systems.

Keywords: building hot smoke tests, performance-based smoke management system designs, full-scale experimental validation, tenable condition criteria

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Authors: Damião Sousa, Hasan Turkez, Ozlem Tozlu, Tamires Lima

Abstract:

Glioblastoma (GBM) is an aggressive cancer from the brain and with high prevalence and significant morbimortality. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate new therapeutic options against this pathology. Thus, the purpose of this study was to evaluate the antitumor activity from Mentha crispa essential oil (MCEO), its major constituent rotundifolone (ROT) and a series of six analogues on human U87MG glioblastoma cell line. The antitumor effects of the compounds on human U87MG-GBM cell line were assessed using in vitro cell viability assays. In addition, biosafety tests were performed on cultured human blood cells. The data show that MCEO, 1,2-perillaldehyde epoxide (EPER1) and perillaldehyde (PALD) were the most cytotoxic compounds against the U87MG cells, with IC50 values of 16.263, 15.087 and 14.888 μg/mL, respectively. The treatment with MCEO, EPER1 and PALD did not lead to damage in blood cells. These chemical analogues may be useful as prototypes for development of novel antitumor drugs due to their promising activities and toxicological safety.

Keywords: antitumor activity, cancer, natural products, terpenes

Procedia PDF Downloads 151