Search results for: fire probabilistic risk assessment

Authors: Franz Zirena Vilca, Nestor Cahui Galarza, Walter Alejandro Zamalloa Cuba, Edith Tello Palma, Teofilo Donaires Flores, Valdemar Luiz Tornisielo

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The production of rainbow trout in the Lake Titicaca represents an important economic activity for Peru. The city of Puno is responsible for 83% of this production, so the use of antibiotics within the aquaculture system is not alien to this reality. Meanwhile, the waters of Lake Titicaca represent an important source for the supply of drinking water for 80% of the population of the Puno city. In this paper, twelve antibiotics for veterinary use were monitored in water samples during two seasons: dry (July 2015) and rainy (February 2016), water samples from trout production systems, near the water catching point in the lake and drinking water in the city house of Puno were considered. The samples were analyzed using liquid chromatography coupled to mass spectrometry and solid online phase extraction (On-line SPE-LC-MS/MS), all samples analyzed showed concentrations of Ciprofloxacin up to 65.2 ng L⁻¹ at the rainy season. On the other hand, 63% of water samples from the dry season and 36 % from the rainy season showed Chlortetracycline up to 8.7 and 6.1 ng L⁻¹, respectively. The presence of residues of veterinary antibiotics in drinking water means a serious health risk for 80% of the population of Puno since all these people are supplied from this source.

Keywords: chromatography, DNA damage, environmental risk, water pollution

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Authors: Mohammad Abotalib, Hamid Alhamadi

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In Kuwait, electricity is generated from two primary sources that are heavy fuel combustion and natural gas combustion. As Kuwait relies mainly on petroleum-based products for electricity generation, identifying and understanding the environmental trade-off of such operations should be carefully investigated. The life cycle assessment (LCA) tool is applied to identify the potential environmental impact of electricity generation under three scenarios by considering the material flow in various stages involved, such as raw-material extraction, transportation, operations, and waste disposal. The three scenarios investigated represent current and futuristic electricity grid mixes. The analysis targets six environmental impact categories: (1) global warming potential (GWP), (2) acidification potential (AP), (3) water depletion (WD), (4) acidification potential (AP), (4) eutrophication potential (EP), (5) human health particulate matter (HHPM), and (6) smog air (SA) per one kWh of electricity generated. Results indicate that one kWh of electricity generated would have a GWP (881-1030) g CO₂-eq, mainly from the fuel combustion process, water depletion (0.07-0.1) m³ of water, about 68% from cooling processes, AP (15.3-17.9) g SO₂-eq, EP (0.12-0.14) g N eq., HHPA (1.13- 1.33)g PM₂.₅ eq., and SA (64.8-75.8) g O₃ eq. The variation in results depend on the scenario investigated. It can be observed from the analysis that introducing solar photovoltaic and wind to the electricity grid mix improves the performance of scenarios 2 and 3 where 15% of the electricity comes from renewables correspond to a further decrease in LCA results.

Keywords: energy, functional uni, global warming potential, life cycle assessment, energy, functional unit

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Authors: Omotoke Omosalewa Owolowo

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Mass literacy adult and non-formal education are part of the provisions of Nigeria’s National policy on Education. The advent of Information and Communication Technology (ICT), especially in this era of industrial revolution, calls for approaching these literacy and adult education in different perspective for community development. There is dire need of Needs Assessment for effective training of rural dwellers to actualize the policy requirement and for the purpose of aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals in South - West Nigeria. The present study is a preliminary survey designed to determine level of awareness, use and familiarity of community dwellers of social media. Adult dwellers from 24 communities from four states in Southern Nigeria constitute the sample, a total of 578 adults (380 females, 198 males) with age range between 21 and 52 years. The survey shows that 68% are aware of SMS, 21% of WhatsApp, 14% of Facebook while the remaining could not say precisely what social medium is their favorite. However, most of them (80%) could not see how their phones can be used to boost their status, improve their vacations or be used to develop them in their respective community. The study is expected to lead to a more elaborate training program on assessment of knowledge acquisition, participation and attitude of adult literate and non- literate members in communities for empowerment and to integrate ICT techniques. The results of this study provides a database for the larger study.

Keywords: mass literacy, community development, information and communication technology, adult learners

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Authors: G. Yanay-Ventura, H. Desivilya Syna, K. Michael

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Social businesses are based on the idea that an enterprise can be established for the sake of profit and, at the same time, with the aim of fulfilling social goals. Yet, the question of how these goals can be integrated in practice to derive parallel benefit in both realms still needs to be examined. Particularly notable in this context is the ‘governance challenge’ of social businesses, meaning the danger of the mission drifts from the social goal in the pursuit of good business. This study is based on an evaluation study of a social business that operates as a restaurant providing professional training to at-risk youth. The evaluation was based on the collection of a variety of data through interviews with stakeholders in the enterprise (directors and managers, business partners, social partners, and position holders in the restaurant and the social enterprise), a focus group consisting of the youth receiving the professional training, observations of the restaurant’s operation, and analysis of the social enterprise’s primary documents. The evaluation highlighted significant strengths of the social enterprise, including reaching relatively fast business sustainability, effective management of the restaurant, stable employment of the restaurant staff, and effective management of the social project. The social enterprise and business management have both enjoyed positive evaluations from a variety of stakeholders. Clearly, the restaurant was deemed by all a promising young business. However, the social project suffered from a 90% dropout rate among the youth entering its ranks, extreme monthly fluctuation in the number of youths participating, and a distinct minority of the youth who have succeeded in completing their training period. Possible explanations of the high dropout rate included the small number of cooks, which impeded the effectiveness of the training process and the provision of advanced cooking skills; lack of clarity regarding the essence and the elements of training; and lack of a meaningful peer group for the youth engaged in the program. Paradoxically, despite the stakeholders’ great appreciation for the social enterprise, the challenge of governability was also formidable, revealing a tangible risk of mission drift in the reduction of the social enterprise’s target population and a breach of the commitment made to the youth with regard to practical training. The risk of mission drifts emerged as a hidden and evasive issue for the stakeholders, who revealed a deep appreciation for the management and the outcomes of the social enterprise. The challenge of integration, therefore, requires an in-depth examination of how to maintain a successful business without hindering the achievement of the social goal. The study concludes that clear conceptualization of the training process and its aims, increased cooks’ participation in the social project, and novel conceptions with regard to the evaluation of success could serve to benefit the youth and impede mission drift.

Keywords: evaluation study, management, mission drift, social business

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Authors: Rajkumar Ghosh

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Earthquakes pose significant risks to human life and infrastructure, highlighting the importance of effective earthquake mitigation strategies. Traditional earthquake modelling and mitigation efforts have largely focused on the primary fault segments and their slip behaviour. However, earthquakes can exhibit complex rupture dynamics, including out-of-sequence thrust (OOST) events, which occur on secondary or subsidiary faults. This abstract examines the impact of OOST dynamics on earthquake mitigation strategies and their implications for hazard assessment and disaster planning. OOST events challenge conventional seismic hazard assessments by introducing additional fault segments and potential rupture scenarios that were previously unrecognized or underestimated. Consequently, these events may increase the overall seismic hazard in affected regions. The study reviews recent case studies and research findings that illustrate the occurrence and characteristics of OOST events. It explores the factors contributing to OOST dynamics, such as stress interactions between fault segments, fault geometry, and mechanical properties of fault materials. Moreover, it investigates the potential triggers and precursory signals associated with OOST events to enhance early warning systems and emergency response preparedness. The abstract also highlights the significance of incorporating OOST dynamics into seismic hazard assessment methodologies. It discusses the challenges associated with accurately modelling OOST events, including the need for improved understanding of fault interactions, stress transfer mechanisms, and rupture propagation patterns. Additionally, the abstract explores the potential for advanced geophysical techniques, such as high-resolution imaging and seismic monitoring networks, to detect and characterize OOST events. Furthermore, the abstract emphasizes the practical implications of OOST dynamics for earthquake mitigation strategies and urban planning. It addresses the need for revising building codes, land-use regulations, and infrastructure designs to account for the increased seismic hazard associated with OOST events. It also underscores the importance of public awareness campaigns to educate communities about the potential risks and safety measures specific to OOST-induced earthquakes. This sheds light on the impact of out-of-sequence thrust dynamics in earthquake mitigation. By recognizing and understanding OOST events, researchers, engineers, and policymakers can improve hazard assessment methodologies, enhance early warning systems, and implement effective mitigation measures. By integrating knowledge of OOST dynamics into urban planning and infrastructure development, societies can strive for greater resilience in the face of earthquakes, ultimately minimizing the potential for loss of life and infrastructure damage.

Keywords: earthquake mitigation, out-of-sequence thrust, seismic, satellite imagery

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Authors: Enoch F. Sam, Kris Brijs, Stijn Daniels, Tom Brijs, Geert Wets

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Notwithstanding the growing body of literature that recognises the importance of personal safety to public transport (PT) users, it remains unclear what PT users consider regarding their safety. In this study, we explore the criteria PT users in Ghana use to assess bus safety. This knowledge will afford a better understanding of PT users’ risk perceptions and assessments which may contribute to theoretical models of PT risk perceptions. We utilised phenomenological research methodology, with data drawn from 61 purposively sampled participants. Data collection (through focus group discussions and in-depth interviews) and analyses were done concurrently to the point of saturation. Our inductive data coding and analyses through the constant comparison and content analytic techniques resulted in 4 code categories (conceptual dimensions), 27 codes (safety items/criteria), and 100 quotations (data segments). Of the number of safety criteria participants use to assess bus safety, vehicle condition, driver’s marital status, and transport operator’s safety records were the most considered. With each criterion, participants rightly demonstrated its respective relevance to bus safety. These findings imply that investment in and maintenance of safer vehicles, and responsible and safety-conscious drivers, and prioritization of passengers’ safety are key-targets for public bus/minibus operators in Ghana.

Keywords: safety evaluations, public bus/minibus, passengers, phenomenology, Ghana

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Authors: Mariia Timofeeva, Andrew Ooi, Eric K. W. Poon, Peter Barlis

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Atherosclerotic plaque build-up, commonly known as stenosis, limits blood flow and hence oxygen and nutrient supplies to the heart muscle. Thus, assessment of its severity is of great interest to health professionals. Numerical simulation of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) has proved to be well correlated with invasively measured FFR used for physiological assessment of the severity of coronary stenosis in arteries. Atherosclerosis may impact the diseased artery in several locations causing serial stenoses, which is a complicated subset of coronary artery disease that requires careful treatment planning. However, hemodynamic of the serial sequential stenoses in coronary arteries has not been extensively studied. The hemodynamics of the serial stenoses is complex because the stenoses in the series interact and affect the flow through each other. To address this, serial stenoses in a 3.4 mm left anterior descending (LAD) artery are examined in this study. Two diameter stenoses (DS) are considered, 30 and 50 percent of the reference diameter. Serial stenoses configurations are divided into three groups based on the order of the stenoses in the series, spacing between them, and deviation of the stenoses’ symmetry (eccentricity). A patient-specific pulsatile waveform is used in the simulations. Blood flow within the stenotic artery is assumed to be laminar, Newtonian, and incompressible. Results for the FFR are reported. Based on the simulation results, it can be deduced that the larger drop in pressure (smaller value of the FFR) is expected when the percentage of the second stenosis in the series is bigger. Varying the distance between the stenoses affects the location of the maximum drop in the pressure, while the minimal FFR in the artery remains unchanged. Eccentric serial stenoses are characterized by a noticeably larger decrease in pressure through the stenoses and by the development of the chaotic flow downstream of the stenoses. The largest drop in the pressure (about 4% difference compared to the axisymmetric case) is obtained for the serial stenoses, where both the stenoses are highly eccentric with the centerlines deflected to the different sides of the LAD. In conclusion, varying configuration of the sequential serial stenoses results in a different distribution of FFR through the LAD. Results presented in this study provide insight into the clinical assessment of the severity of the coronary serial stenoses, which is proved to depend on the relative position of the stenoses and the deviation of the stenoses’ symmetry.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, coronary artery, fractional flow reserve, serial stenoses

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Authors: Ryotaro Ishikawa

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Social Anxiety Disorder (SAD) is marked by the persistent fear of social or performance situations in which embarrassment may occur. In contrast, SA in Japan and in China is understood differently. Taijin Kyofusho (TKS) is a culture-bound subtype of SAD which has been the focus of recent research. TKS refers to a unique form of SAD found in Japanese and East Asian cultures characterized by a fear of offending others, in contrast to prototypical SAD in which the source of fear is typically concerned about one’s own embarrassment, humiliation, or rejection by others. Criteria for TKS partially overlap with but are distinct from SAD; a primary factor distinguishing TKS from SAD appears to be individualistic versus interdependent or collectivistic self-construals. The aim of this study was to develop a scale to assess the typical SAD and offensive type of SAD (TKS). This study aimed to test the internal consistency and validity of the scale (Dimensional Social Anxiety Scale: DSAS) using university students sample. For this, 148 university students were enrolled (male=90, female=58, age=19.77, Standard Deviation=1.04). As a result of confirmatory factor analysis, three-factor models of DSAS were verified (χ2(74) =128.36). These three factors were named ‘general’, ‘perfomance’, and ‘offensive’. DSAS were significantly correlated with the Liebowitz Social Anxiety Scale (r = .538, p < .001). Good internal consistencies were indicated on the three subscales (α = .76 to 89). In conclusion, this study indicated DSAS has adequate internal consistency and validity for assessing of multi-type of SADs.

Keywords: social anxiety, cognitive theory, assessment, anxiety disorder

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Authors: Abhinav Sirvaiya, Karan Gupta, Pankaj Garg

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The demand of energy is increasing at every part of the world. Thus, use of fossil fuel is efficient which results in large liberation of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. Tons of this CO2 raises the risk of dangerous climate changes. To minimize the risk carbon capture and storage (CCS) has to be used so that the emitted carbon dioxide do not reach the atmosphere. CCS is being considered as one of the options that could have a major role to play in India.With the growing awareness towards the global warming, carbon capture and sequestration has a great importance. New technologies and theories are in use to capture CO2. This paper contains the methodology and technologies that is in use to capture carbon dioxide in India. The present scenario of CCS is also being discussed. CCS is playing a major role in enhancing recovery of oil (ERO). Both the purpose 1) minimizing percentage of carbon dioxide in atmosphere and 2) enhancing recovery of oil are fulfilled from the CCS. The CO2 is usually captured from coal based power plant and from some industrial sources and then stored in the geological formations like oil and gas reservoir and deep aquifers or in oceans. India has large reservoirs of coal which are being used for storing CO2, as coal is a good absorbent of CO2. New technologies and studies are going on for injection purposes. Government has initiated new plans for CCS as CCS is technically feasible and economically attractive. A discussion is done on new schemes that should bring up CCS plans and approaches. Stakeholders are welcomed for suitability of CCS. There is still a need to potentially capture the CO2 and avail its storage in developing country like India.

Keywords: Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), carbon dioxide (CO2), enhance oil recovery, geological formations, stakeholders

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Authors: Gabriel Legorreta Paulin, Marcus I. Bursik, Lilia Arana Salinas, Fernando Aceves Quesada

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In volcanic environments, landslides and debris flows occur continually along stream systems of large stratovolcanoes. This is the case on Pico de Orizaba volcano, the highest mountain in Mexico. The volcano has a great potential to impact and damage human settlements and economic activities by landslides. People living along the lower valleys of Pico de Orizaba volcano are in continuous hazard by the coalescence of upstream landslide sediments that increased the destructive power of debris flows. These debris flows not only produce floods, but also cause the loss of lives and property. Although the importance of assessing such process, there is few landslide inventory maps and landslide susceptibility assessment. As a result in México, no landslide susceptibility models assessment has been conducted to evaluate advantage and disadvantage of models. In this study, a comprehensive study of landslide susceptibility models assessment using GIS technology is carried out on the SE flank of Pico de Orizaba volcano. A detailed multi-temporal landslide inventory map in the watershed is used as framework for the quantitative comparison of two landslide susceptibility maps. The maps are created based on 1) the Stability Index MAPping (SINMAP) model by using default geotechnical parameters and 2) by using findings of volcanic soils geotechnical proprieties obtained in the field. SINMAP combines the factor of safety derived from the infinite slope stability model with the theory of a hydrologic model to produce the susceptibility map. It has been claimed that SINMAP analysis is reasonably successful in defining areas that intuitively appear to be susceptible to landsliding in regions with sparse information. The validations of the resulting susceptibility maps are performed by comparing them with the inventory map under LOGISNET system which provides tools to compare by using a histogram and a contingency table. Results of the experiment allow for establishing how the individual models predict the landslide location, advantages, and limitations. The results also show that although the model tends to improve with the use of calibrated field data, the landslide susceptibility map does not perfectly represent existing landslides.

Keywords: GIS, landslide, modeling, LOGISNET, SINMAP

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Authors: Hyvee Gean Cabuso, Arvin Taruc, Danielle Villanueva, Channela Anais Hipolito, Jia Bianca Alfonso

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Introduction: Denture adhesive aids to provide additional retention, support and comfort for patients with loose dentures, as well as for patients who seek to achieve optimal denture adhesion. But due to its growing popularity, arising oral health issues should be considered, including its possible impact that may alter the microbiological condition of the denture. Changes as such may further resolve to denture-related oral diseases that can affect the day-to-day lives of patients. Purpose: The study aims to assess and compare the microbiological status of dentures without adhesives versus dentures when adhesives were applied. The study also intends to identify the presence of specific microorganisms, their colony concentration and their possible effects on the oral microflora. This study also aims to educate subjects by introducing an alternative denture cleaning method as well as denture and oral health care. Methodology: Edentulous subjects age 50-80 years old, both physically and medically fit, were selected to participate. Before obtaining samples for the study, the alternative cleaning method was introduced by demonstrating a step-by-step cleaning process. Samples were obtained by swabbing the intaglio surface of their upper and lower prosthesis. These swabs were placed in a thioglycollate broth, which served as a transport and enrichment medium. The swabs were then processed through bacterial culture. The colony-forming units (CFUs) were calculated on MacConkey Agar Plate (MAP) and Blood Agar Plate (BAP) in order to identify and assess the microbiological status, including species identification and microbial counting. Result: Upon evaluation and analysis of collected data, the microbiological assessment of the upper dentures with adhesives showed little to no difference compared to dentures without adhesives, but for the lower dentures, (P=0.005), which is less than α = 0.05; therefore, the researchers reject (Ho) and that there is a significant difference between the mean ranks of the lower denture without adhesive to those with, implying that there is a significant decrease in the bacterial count. Conclusion: These results findings may implicate the possibility that the addition of denture adhesives may contribute to the significant decrease of microbial colonization on the dentures.

Keywords: denture, denture adhesive, denture-related, microbiological assessment

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Authors: Sukhbaatar Dorj, Erdenebaatar Altangerel

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As alternative to existing e-government measuring models, here proposed a new customer centric, service oriented, simple approach for measuring countries e-Governments. If successfully implemented, built infrastructure will provide a single e-government index number for countries. Main schema is as follows. Country CIO or equal position government official, at the beginning of each year will provide to United Nations dedicated web site 4 numbers on behalf of own country: 1) Ratio of available online public services, to total number of public services, 2) Ratio of interagency inter ministry online public services to total number of available online public services, 3) Ratio of total number of citizen and business entities served online annually to total number of citizen and business entities served annually online and physically on those services, 4) Simple index for geographical spread of online served citizen and business entities. 4 numbers then combined into one index number by mathematical Average function. In addition to 4 numbers 5th number can be introduced as service quality indicator of online public services. If in ordering of countries index number is equal, 5th criteria will be used. Notice: This approach is for country’s current e-government achievement assessment, not for e-government readiness assessment.

Keywords: countries e-government index, e-government, infrastructure for measuring e-government, measuring e-government

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Authors: Elham Abbas Aljaaly, Nahlaa Abdulwahab Khalifa

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The active method of disease prevention is seen as the most affordable and sustainable action to deal with risks of non-communicable diseases such as obesity. This eight-week project aimed to pilot the feasibility and acceptability of a school-based programme, which is proposed to prevent and modify overweight status and possible related risk factors among student girls 'at the intermediate level' in Jeddah city. The programme was conducted through comprehensible approach targeting physical environment and school policies (nutritional/exercise/behavioural approach). The programme was designed to cultivate the personal and environmental awareness in schools for girls. This was applied by promoting healthy eating and physical activity through policies, physical education, healthier options for school canteens, and the creation of school health teams. The prevention programme was applied on 68 students (who agreed to participate) from grades 7th, 8th and 9th. A pre and post assessment questionnaire was employed on 66 students. The questionnaires were designed to obtain information on students' knowledge about health, nutrition and physical activity. Survey questions included information about nutrients, food consumption patterns, food intake and lifestyle. Physical education included training sessions for new opportunities for physical activities to be performed during school or after school hours. A running competition 'to enhance students’ performance for physical activities' was also conducted during the school visit. A visit to the school canteen was conducted to check, observe, record and assess all available food/beverage items and meals. The assessment method was a subjective method for the type of food/beverages if high in saturated fat, salt and sugar (HFSS) or non-HFSS. The school canteen administrators were encouraged to provide healthy food/beverage items and a sample healthy canteen was provided for implementation. Two healthy options were introduced to the school canteen. A follow up for students’ preferences for the introduced options and the purchasing power were assessed. Thirty-eight percent of young girls (n=26) were not participating in any form of physical activities inside or outside school. Skipping breakfast was stated by 42% (n=28) of students with no daily consumption (19%, n=13) for fruit/vegetables. Significant changes were noticed in students’ (n=66) overall responses to the pre and post questions (P value=.001). All students had participated in the conducted running competition sessions and reported satisfaction and enjoyment about the sessions. No absence was reported by the research team for attending physical education and activity sessions throughout the delivered programme. The purchasing power of the introduced healthy options of 'Salad and oatmeal' was increased to 18% in 8 weeks at the school canteen, and slightly affected the purchase for other less healthy options. The piloted programme indorsed better health and nutrition knowledge, healthy eating and lifestyle attitude, which could help young girls to obtain sustainable changes. It is expected that the outcomes of the programme will be a cornerstone for the futuristic national study that will assist policy makers and participants to build a knowledgeable health promotion scenario and make sure that school students have access to healthy foods, physical exercise and healthy lifestyle.

Keywords: adolescents, diet, exercise, behaviours, overweight/obesity, prevention-intervention programme, Saudi Arabia, schoolgirls

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Authors: Gabriele Iannotta

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This paper investigates credit cycles by means of an experiment based on a Kiyotaki & Moore (1997) model with heterogeneous expectations. The aim is to examine how a credit squeeze caused by high lender-level risk perceptions affects the real prices of a collateralised asset, with a special focus on the macroeconomic implications of rising price volatility in terms of total welfare and the number of bankruptcies that occur. To do that, a learning-to-forecast experiment (LtFE) has been run where participants are asked to predict the future price of land and then rewarded based on the accuracy of their forecasts. The setting includes one lender and five borrowers in each of the twelve sessions split between six control groups (G1) and six treatment groups (G2). The only difference is that while in G1 the lender always satisfies borrowers’ loan demand (bankruptcies permitting), in G2 he/she closes the entire credit market in case three or more bankruptcies occur in the previous round. Experimental results show that negative risk-driven supply shocks amplify the volatility of collateral prices. This uncertainty worsens the agents’ ability to predict the future value of land and, as a consequence, the number of defaults increases and the total welfare deteriorates.

Keywords: Behavioural Macroeconomics, Credit Cycle, Experimental Economics, Heterogeneous Expectations, Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

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Authors: Jeanne Grace, Shereen Currie

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Background: Obesity associated comorbidities increase the risk of morbidity and mortality among employees in the workplace. Objectives: The study aimed to determine the prevalence of obesity and comorbidities like diabetes, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia associated with obesity within the workplace in South Africa. Methods: A total of 17359 male (n = 8561) and female (n = 8798) employees, aged between 18-64 years (40.8 ± 11.0), from various corporate and industrial companies in South Africa participated in the study. Subjects were assigned to one of five body mass index (BMI) categories, according to their BMI: normal weight, BMI of 18.5‒24.9 kg/m² (n = 7338); overweight, BMI of 25.0‒29.9 kg/m² (n = 6323); obese class I, BMI of 30.0-34.9 kg/m² (n = 2552); obese class II, BMI of 35.0-39.9 kg/m² (n = 782); and obese class III, BMI of ≥ 40 kg/m² (n = 364). Height, weight, blood pressure, random blood glucose, and total cholesterol were measured. Results: The prevalence of normal weight men was 29.2% and women 55.0%; overweight men 46.4% and women 26.7%, obese men 24.4% and women 18.3%. A significant association (p<0.01) of BMI with diabetes, systolic and diastolic hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia were noted. Conclusion: Obesity is strongly associated with adverse comorbidities that may impact employees’ quality of life and performance. If unaddressed, it can increase comorbidities, not only affecting the bottom line of companies but causing morbidity and mortality, including sudden death.

Keywords: body mass index, cholesterol, blood glucose, workplace

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Authors: Jennifer Hunter, Francisco Ramirez, Neil A. Nedley, Thania Solorio, Christian Freed, Erica Kinjo

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People who have autoimmune disease are often at an increased risk for psychological disorders such as anxiety. Untreated psychological conditions can affect the development of disease and can affect one’s general quality of life. In this study, it was hypothesized that an educational community-based intervention would be useful in decreasing the anxiety levels of participants with autoimmune disease. Programs, 2-hours long each, were held weekly over a period of eight weeks. During every meeting, a 45-minute DVD presentation by a skilled physician was shown, a small group discussion was guided by trained facilitators, and weekly practical assignments were given to each participant. The focus of the program was to educate participants about healthy lifestyle behaviors such as exercise, nutrition, sleep hygiene, helpful thought patterns etc., and to provide a group environment in which each participant was supported. Participants were assessed pre-post program for anxiety using the Depression and Anxiety Assessment Test (registration TX 7-398-022), a validated mental health test based on DSM-5 criteria and demographics. Anxiety scores were classified according to the DSM-5 criteria into 4 categories: none (0-6), mild (7-10), moderate (11-19) or severe (20 or more). Out of the participants who participated in programs conducted in the manner explained above (n=431), the average age was 54.9 (SD 16.6) and 81.9% were female. At baseline, the mean group anxiety level was 9.4 (SD 5.4). Within the baseline group, anxiety levels were as follows: none (21.1%), mild (22.0%), moderate (27.1%) and severe (29.7%). After the program, mean group anxiety decreased to 4.7 (SD 4.0). Post-program anxiety levels were as follows: none (54.8%), mild (27.1%), moderate (12.5%), severe (5.6%). The decrease in overall anxiety levels was significant t(431)=19.3 p<.001, 95% CI [0.815, 1.041]. It was concluded that the eight-week intensive was beneficial in decreasing the anxiety levels of participants. A long-term follow-up study would be beneficial in determining how lasting such improvements are especially since autoimmune diseases are often chronic. Additionally, future studies that utilize a control group would aid in establishing whether the improvements seen are due to the use of this specific lifestyle-educational program.

Keywords: anxiety, auto-immune disease, community-based educational program, lifestyle

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Authors: Roop Kiran, Muhammad Shoaib Zafar, Nazish Idrees Chaudhary

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Depression is known to be the second most frequently occurring comorbid mental illness among patients suffering from chronic physical conditions. Around the world, depression is associated with chronic liver diseases as one of the dominant symptoms. This evidence brings attention to the research about various predictors for short life expectancy and poor quality of life in patients suffering from comorbid depression and CLD. Following are the objectives of this study i) measure the occurrence rate of comorbid depression among patients with CLD and ii) find the frequency of risk factors between patients with and without depression comorbid with CLD. This is a quantitative study with a cross-sectional design. The research data was collected through a measure called Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) with a demographic Performa from 100 patients who visited the Department of Psychiatry for consultation at Mayo Hospital Lahore with a diagnosed CLD from the last four years. There were (42%) patients with CLD who had comorbid depression. Among depressed and non-depressed patients, significant differences were found (p<0.05) for unemployment in 25 (59.5%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients, for co-morbidity in 25 (59.5%) males and 18 (31.0%) female patients, for illiteracy in 18 (42.9%) males and 13 (22.4%) female patients, for the history of CLD for more than the last 2years in 41 (97.6%) males and 47 (81.0%) female patients, for severity of CLD in 26 (61.9%) males and 20 (34.5%) female patients. This concludes that depression frequently occurs among patients with CLD. This study recommends considerable attention to plan preventative measures in the future and develop such intervention protocols that consider the management of risk factors that significantly influence comorbid depression with CLD.

Keywords: psychiatry, comorbid, health, quality of life

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Authors: Ana Corberan-Vallet, Karen C. Florez, Ingrid C. Marino, Jose D. Bermudez

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In 2016, the Region of the Americas was declared free of measles, a viral disease that can cause severe health problems. However, since 2017, measles has reemerged in Venezuela and has subsequently reached neighboring countries. In 2018, twelve American countries reported confirmed cases of measles. Governmental and health authorities in Colombia, a country that shares the longest land boundary with Venezuela, are aware of the need for a strong response to restrict the expanse of the epidemic. In this work, we apply a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model with an underlying cluster structure to describe disease incidence in Colombia. Concretely, the proposed methodology provides relative risk estimates at the department level and identifies clusters of disease, which facilitates the implementation of targeted public health interventions. Socio-demographic factors, such as the percentage of migrants, gross domestic product, and entry routes, are included in the model to better describe the incidence of disease. Since the model does not impose any spatial correlation at any level of the model hierarchy, it avoids the spatial confounding problem and provides a suitable framework to estimate the fixed-effect coefficients associated with spatially-structured covariates.

Keywords: Bayesian analysis, cluster identification, disease mapping, risk estimation

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Authors: Ioanna Koumi

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The aim of the intervention presented is to show the positive effects a mindfulness programme can have on the behaviour of preschoolers (years 4-6). The programme was implemented as part of the psychologist's work in 5 preschool units on the Greek island of Chios. Classroom-based activities of mindfulness were shown and practiced in 5 sessions, in collaboration with teachers, in order to make preschoolers aware of how their brain affects their behaviour, as well as of how they can have more positive behaviours, especially in instances of negative feelings. The outcomes of the intervention were assessed via questionnaire completion before and after the sessions by the teachers, as well as focus groups procedures with students, teachers, and parents. Implications of how mindfulness programmes can also be implemented at home are further discussed. School year in which the programme is being implemented: 2022-23 Intervention method: based on basic mindfulness theory and practice, the 220 students (age 4-6) in 11 classes of the 5 preschools that participated were given lessons of how to become aware of their states of focusing, regulation, attention, emotional situation, as well as body and social situations. Furthermore, the preschoolers were encouraged to make more mindful choices when it came to negative situations and emotions. Assessment method: The school as a caring community Profile II – Questionnaire completed by 20 preschool teachers prior to and after the intervention, Focus group sessions with teachers, students, parents at the end of the intervention Results: the assessment will be completed in May 2023.

Keywords: preschool, mindfulness training, self-awareness, social-emotional development

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Authors: Eric Dede, Marcus Tindall, John W. Cherrie, Steve Hankin, Christopher Collins

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Current exposure models used in contaminated land risk assessment are highly conservative. Use of these models may lead to over-estimation of actual exposures, possibly resulting in negative financial implications due to un-necessary remediation. Thus, we are carrying out a study seeking to improve our understanding of human exposure to selected toxic elements in soil: arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), and lead (Pb) resulting from allotment land-use. The study employs biomonitoring and physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling to quantify human exposure to these elements. We recruited 37 allotment users (adults > 18 years old) in Scotland, UK, to participate in the study. Concentrations of the elements (and their bioaccessibility) were measured in allotment samples (soil and allotment produce). Amount of produce consumed by the participants and participants’ biological samples (urine and blood) were collected for up to 12 consecutive months. Ethical approval was granted by the University of Reading Research Ethics Committee. PBPK models (coded in MATLAB) were used to estimate the distribution and accumulation of the elements in key body compartments, thus indicating the internal body burden. Simulating low element intake (based on estimated ‘doses’ from produce consumption records), predictive models suggested that detection of these elements in urine and blood was possible within a given period of time following exposure. This information was used in planning biomonitoring, and is currently being used in the interpretation of test results from biological samples. Evaluation of the models is being carried out using biomonitoring data, by comparing model predicted concentrations and measured biomarker concentrations. The PBPK models will be used to generate bioavailability values, which could be incorporated in contaminated land exposure models. Thus, the findings from this study will promote a more sustainable approach to contaminated land management.

Keywords: biomonitoring, exposure, PBPK modelling, toxic elements

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Authors: Athdath Waduge Susantha Janaka Kumara, Xiefei Zhi, Zin Mie Mie Sein

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Understanding the air temperature variability is crucially important for disaster risk reduction and management. In this study, we used 15 synoptic meteorological stations to assess the spatiotemporal variability of air temperature over Sri Lanka during 1972–2021. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), Principal component analysis (PCA), Mann-Kendall test, power spectrum analysis and correlation coefficient analysis were used to investigate the long-term trends of air temperature and their possible relation to sea surface temperature (SST) over the region. The results indicate that an increasing trend in air temperature was observed with the abrupt climate change noted in the year 1994. The spatial distribution of EOF1 (63.5%) shows the positive and negative loading dipole patterns from south to northeast, while EOF2 (23.4%) explains warmer (colder) in some parts of central (south and east) areas. The power spectrum of PC1 (PC2) indicates that there is a significant period of 3-4 years (quasi-2 years). Moreover, Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) provides a strong positive correlation with the air temperature of Sri Lanka, while the EL Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) presents a weak negative correlation. Therefore, IOD events led to higher temperatures in the region. This study’s findings can help disaster risk reduction and management in the country.

Keywords: air temperature, interannaul variability, ENSO, IOD

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Authors: Jacqueline Y. Thompson, Sam Watson, Lee Middleton, Karla Hemming

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Introduction: The odds ratio (estimated via logistic regression) is a well-established and common approach for estimating covariate-adjusted binary treatment effects when comparing a treatment and control group with dichotomous outcomes. Its popularity is primarily because of its stability and robustness to model misspecification. However, the situation is different for the relative risk and risk difference, which are arguably easier to interpret and better suited to specific designs such as non-inferiority studies. So far, there is no equivalent, widely acceptable approach to estimate an adjusted relative risk and risk difference when conducting clinical trials. This is partly due to the lack of a comprehensive evaluation of available candidate methods. Methods/Approach: A simulation study is designed to evaluate the performance of relevant candidate methods to estimate relative risks to represent conditional and marginal estimation approaches. We consider the log-binomial, generalised linear models (GLM) with iteratively weighted least-squares (IWLS) and model-based standard errors (SE); log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and model-based SEs; log-binomial GLM with convex optimisation and permutation tests; modified-Poisson GLM IWLS and robust SEs; log-binomial generalised estimation equations (GEE) and robust SEs; marginal standardisation and delta method SEs; and marginal standardisation and permutation test SEs. Independent and identically distributed datasets are simulated from a randomised controlled trial to evaluate these candidate methods. Simulations are replicated 10000 times for each scenario across all possible combinations of sample sizes (200, 1000, and 5000), outcomes (10%, 50%, and 80%), and covariates (ranging from -0.05 to 0.7) representing weak, moderate or strong relationships. Treatment effects (ranging from 0, -0.5, 1; on the log-scale) will consider null (H0) and alternative (H1) hypotheses to evaluate coverage and power in realistic scenarios. Performance measures (bias, mean square error (MSE), relative efficiency, and convergence rates) are evaluated across scenarios covering a range of sample sizes, event rates, covariate prognostic strength, and model misspecifications. Potential Results, Relevance & Impact: There are several methods for estimating unadjusted and adjusted relative risks. However, it is unclear which method(s) is the most efficient, preserves type-I error rate, is robust to model misspecification, or is the most powerful when adjusting for non-prognostic and prognostic covariates. GEE estimations may be biased when the outcome distributions are not from marginal binary data. Also, it seems that marginal standardisation and convex optimisation may perform better than GLM IWLS log-binomial.

Keywords: binary outcomes, statistical methods, clinical trials, simulation study

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Authors: Benjamin K. Ghansah, Richard K. Appoh, Iliya Nababa, Eric K. Forkuo

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The Nasia River is an important source of water for domestic and agricultural purposes to the inhabitants of its catchment. Major farming activities takes place within the floodplain of the river and its network of tributaries. The actual inundation extent of the river system is; however, unknown. Reasons for this lack of information include financial constraints and inadequate human resources as flood modelling is becoming increasingly complex by the day. Knowledge of the inundation extent will help in the assessment of risk posed by the annual flooding of the river, and help in the planning of flood recession agricultural activities. This study used a simple terrain based algorithm, Height Above Nearest Drainage (HAND), to delineate the floodplain of the Nasia River and its tributaries. The HAND model is a drainage normalized digital elevation model, which has its height reference based on the local drainage systems rather than the average mean sea level (AMSL). The underlying principle guiding the development of the HAND model is that hillslope flow paths behave differently when the reference gradient is to the local drainage network as compared to the seaward gradient. The new terrain model of the catchment was created using the NASA’s SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM) 30m as the only data input. Contours (HAND Contour) were then generated from the normalized DEM. Based on field flood inundation survey, historical information of flooding of the area as well as satellite images, a HAND Contour of 2m was found to best correlates with the flood inundation extent of the river and its tributaries. A percentage accuracy of 75% was obtained when the surface area created by the 2m contour was compared with surface area of the floodplain computed from a satellite image captured during the peak flooding season in September 2016. It was estimated that the flooding of the Nasia River and its tributaries created a floodplain area of 1011 km².

Keywords: digital elevation model, floodplain, HAND contour, inundation extent, Nasia River

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Authors: M. Bokhtiar Hasan, M. Delowar Hossain, Abu N. M. Wahid

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The principal aim of the study is to find out a way to effectively manage the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather risks, and fund shortage. To hedge price volatility, farmers sometimes make contracts with agro-traders but fail to protect themselves effectively due to not having legal framework for such contracts. The study extensively reviews existing literature and find evidence that the majority studies either deal with price volatility or weather risks. If we could address these risks through a single model, it would be more useful to both the farmers and traders. Intrinsically, the authors endeavor in this regard, and the key contribution of this study basically lies in it. Initially, we conduct a small survey aspiring to identify the shortcomings of existing contracts. Later, we propose a model encompassing forward and insurance contracts together where forward contract will be used to hedge price volatility and insurance contract will be used to protect weather risks. Contribution/Originality: The study adds to the existing literature through proposing an integrated model comprising of forward contract and crop insurance which will support both farmers and traders to cope with the agricultural risks like price volatility, weather hazards, and fund shortage. JEL Classifications: O13, Q13

Keywords: agriculture, forward contract, insurance contract, risk management, model

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Authors: Mostosi C., Stéphenne J., Kempeneers E.

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Introduction: Refuellers from Brussels South Charleroi Airport (BSCA) expressed concerns about the risks involved in handling JET-A1 fuel. The HSE Manager of BSCA, in collaboration with the occupational physician and the industrial hygiene unit of the External Service of Occupational Medicine, decided to assess the toxicological exposure of these workers. Materials and methods: Two measurement methods were used. The first was to assay three types of metabolites in urine to highlight the exposure to xylenes, toluene, and benzene in aircraft fuels. Out of 32 refuellers in the department, 26 participated in the sampling, and 23 samples were exploited. The second method targeted the assessment of environmental exposure to certain potentially hazardous substances that refuellers are likely to breathe in work areas at the airport. It was decided to carry out two ambient air measurement campaigns, using static systems on the one hand and, on the other hand, using individual sensors worn by the refuellers at the level of the respiratory tract. Volatile organic compounds and diesel particles were analyzed. Results: Despite the fears that motivated these analyzes, the overall results showed low levels of exposure, far below the existing limit values, both in air quality and in urinary measurements. Conclusion: These results are comparable to a study carried out in several French airports. The staff could be reassured, and then the medical surveillance was modified by the occupational physician. With the aviation development at BSCA, equipment and methods are evolving. Their exposure will have to be reassessed.

Keywords: refuelling, airport, exposure, fuel, occupational health, air quality

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Authors: Tahsien Mohamed Okasha

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We hypothesized that Post cardiac arrest patients with Glasgow coma scale (GCS) score of less than (8) and who will be exposed to therapeutic hypothermia protocol will exhibit improvement in their neurological performance. Purposive sample of 17 patients who were fulfilling the inclusion criteria during one year collected. The study carried out using Quasi-experimental research design. Four Tools used for data collection of this study: Demographic and medical data sheet, Post cardiac arrest health assessment sheet, Bedside Shivering Assessment Scale (BSAS), and Glasgow Pittsburgh cerebral performance category scale (CPC). Result: the mean age was X̅ ± SD = 53 ± 8.122 years, 47.1% were arrested because of cardiac etiology. 35.3% with initial arrest rhythm ventricular tachycardia (VT), 23.5% with ventricular fibrillation (VF), and 29.4% with A-Systole. Favorable neurological outcome was seen among 70.6%. There was significant statistical difference in WBC, Platelets, blood gases value, random blood sugar. Also Initial arrest rhythm, etiology of cardiac arrest, and shivering status were significantly correlated with cerebral performance categories score. therapeutic hypothermia has positive effects on neurological performance among post cardiac arrest patients with GCS score of less than (8). replication of the study on larger probability sample, with randomized control trial design. Further study for suggesting nursing protocol for patients undergoing therapeutic hypothermia.

Keywords: therapeutic hypothermia, neurological performance, after resuscitation from cardiac arrest., resuscitation

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Authors: Rameshaiah Gowdara Narayanappa, Manikonda Prithvi, Manoj Kumar, Suraj Bhavani, Vikram Singh

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Long ago heating of food was only related to fire or electricity. Heating and storage of consumer foods were satisfied by the use of vacuum thermo flaks, electric heating cans and DC powered heating cans. But many of which did not sustain the heat for a long period of time and were impractical for remote areas. The use of chemical energy for heating foods directed us to think about the applications of exothermic reactions as a source of heat. Initial studies of calcium oxide showed desirability but not feasible because the reaction was uncontrollable and irreversible. In this research work we viewed at crystallization of super saturated sodium acetate trihydrate solution. Supersaturated sodium acetate trihydrate has a freezing point of 540 C (1300 F), but it observed to be stable as a liquid at much lower temperatures. Mechanical work is performed to create an active chemical energy zone within the working fluid, when crystallization process is initiated. Due to this the temperature rises to its freezing point which in turn heats the contents in the storage container. Present work endeavor to design a self-heating storage container is suitable for consumer dedications.

Keywords: crystallization, exothermic reactions, self-heating container, super saturation, vacuum thermo flask

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Authors: Daniel K. Gameti

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The paper explored the effects of active and passive entrepreneurship education methods on the venture creation intention of undergraduate students in Ghana. The study also examined the moderating effect of gender and negative personal characteristics (risk tolerance, stress tolerance and fear of failure) on students’ venture creation intention. Deductive approach was used in collecting quantitative data from 555 business students from one public university and one private university through self-administered questionnaires. Descriptive statistic was used to determine the dominant method of entrepreneurship education used in Ghana. Further, structural equation model was used to test four hypotheses. The results of the study show that the dominant method of education used in Ghana was lectures and the least method used was field trip. The study further revealed that passive methods of education are less effective compared to active methods which were statistically significant in venture creation intention among students. There was also statistical difference between male and female students’ venture creation intention but stronger among male students and finally, the only personal characteristics that influence students’ intention was stress tolerance because risk tolerance and fear of failure were statistically insignificant.

Keywords: entrepreneurship education, Ghana, moderating variables, venture creation intention, undergraduate students

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Authors: Silvia Rahmita

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Entrepreneurial success is crucial for economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation, yet many entrepreneurs face failure due to various challenges. This paper explores the critical role of strategic thinking in mitigating entrepreneurial failure. Entrepreneurial competencies—encompassing knowledge, skills, and traits—are essential for creating and growing ventures. Despite these competencies, numerous entrepreneurs fail due to poor management, inadequate support, and ineffective policies. The paper categorizes entrepreneurial failures into financial, operational, market, product or service, strategic, leadership, legal, human capital, technological, and environmental failures. Each failure type can be addressed through strategic thinking, which involves foresight, balancing short-term and long-term goals, and hypothesis-driven processes. By integrating strategic thinking into their approach, entrepreneurs can enhance risk management, adapt to market changes, and sustain growth. This process involves setting clear goals, innovating products, and maintaining a competitive edge. Ultimately, strategic thinking provides a framework for proactive planning, adaptation, and continuous improvement, reducing the likelihood of failure and ensuring long-term success. Entrepreneurs who prioritize strategic thinking are better equipped to navigate the complexities of the business environment and achieve sustainable growth.

Keywords: entrepreneurial failure, strategic thinking, risk management, business failure

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Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

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In today's data-driven world, the role of mathematics in bridging the gap between theory and applications is becoming increasingly vital. This abstract highlights the significance of mathematics as a powerful tool for analyzing, interpreting, and extracting meaningful insights from vast amounts of data. By integrating mathematical principles with real-world applications, researchers can unlock the full potential of data-driven decision-making processes. This abstract delves into the various ways mathematics acts as a bridge connecting theoretical frameworks to practical applications. It explores the utilization of mathematical models, algorithms, and statistical techniques to uncover hidden patterns, trends, and correlations within complex datasets. Furthermore, it investigates the role of mathematics in enhancing predictive modeling, optimization, and risk assessment methodologies for improved decision-making in diverse fields such as finance, healthcare, engineering, and social sciences. The abstract also emphasizes the need for interdisciplinary collaboration between mathematicians, statisticians, computer scientists, and domain experts to tackle the challenges posed by the data-driven landscape. By fostering synergies between these disciplines, novel approaches can be developed to address complex problems and make data-driven insights accessible and actionable. Moreover, this abstract underscores the importance of robust mathematical foundations for ensuring the reliability and validity of data analysis. Rigorous mathematical frameworks not only provide a solid basis for understanding and interpreting results but also contribute to the development of innovative methodologies and techniques. In summary, this abstract advocates for the pivotal role of mathematics in bridging theory and applications in a data-driven world. By harnessing mathematical principles, researchers can unlock the transformative potential of data analysis, paving the way for evidence-based decision-making, optimized processes, and innovative solutions to the challenges of our rapidly evolving society.

Keywords: mathematics, bridging theory and applications, data-driven world, mathematical models

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