Search results for: statistical evidence

Authors: Rino Gubiani, Gianfranco Pergher

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The work focused on the statistical analysis of accidents in the forestry sector (2000-2020) in Friuli-Venezia Giulia region, located in the North-East of Italy. The aim of the work was to analyse the evolution of the casualties throughout time and to evaluate possible improvements in the sector. It was shown that even nowadays the rate of accidents in forestry work is higher compared with all the other sectors, including agriculture; moreover, it was highlighted that some accidents remained present throughout the whole analysed range, such as slipping on the soil, being hit by trees and falling down from the plants. The results showed that an increase in forestry exploitation could even increase the total number of accidents, if advanced technological machines, such as cable cranes, would not implemented, given the fact that there is also a significant number of old people (above 50 years old) working in the sector.

Keywords: safety, forestry work, accidents, risk analysis, casualties, statistical analysis

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Authors: Manveen Singh

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Since the very advent of law enforcement, eyewitness testimony has played a pivotal role in identifying, arresting and convicting suspects. Reliant heavily on the accuracy of human memory, nothing seems to carry more weight with the judiciary than the testimony of an actual witness. The acceptance of eyewitness testimony as a substantive piece of evidence lies embedded in the assumption that the human mind is adept at recording and storing events. Research though, has proven otherwise. Having carried out extensive study in the field of eyewitness testimony for the past 40 years, psychologists have concluded that human memory is fragile and needs to be treated carefully. The question that arises then, is how reliable is eyewitness testimony? The credibility of eyewitness testimony, simply put, depends on several factors leaving it reliable at times while not so much at others. This is further substantiated by the fact that as per scientific research, over 75 percent of all eyewitness testimonies may stand in error; quite a few of these cases resulting in life sentences. Although the advancement of scientific techniques, especially DNA testing, helped overturn many of these eyewitness testimony-based convictions, yet eyewitness identifications continue to form the backbone of most police investigations and courtroom decisions till date. What then is the solution to this long standing concern regarding the accuracy of eyewitness accounts? The present paper shall analyze the linkage between human memory and eyewitness identification as well as look at the various factors governing the credibility of eyewitness testimonies. Furthermore, it shall elaborate upon some best practices developed over the years to help reduce mistaken identifications. Thus, in the process, trace out the changing landscape of eyewitness testimony amidst the evolution of DNA and trace evidence.

Keywords: DNA, eyewitness, identification, testimony, evidence

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Authors: Alaa Al Hawari, Mohammad Khader, Tarek Zayed, Osama Moselhi

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In this paper, an effective non-destructive, non-invasive approach for leak detection was proposed. The process relies on analyzing thermal images collected by an IR viewer device that captures thermo-grams. In this study a statistical analysis of the collected thermal images of the ground surface along the expected leak location followed by a visual inspection of the thermo-grams was performed in order to locate the leak. In order to verify the applicability of the proposed approach the predicted leak location from the developed approach was compared with the real leak location. The results showed that the expected leak location was successfully identified with an accuracy of more than 95%.

Keywords: thermography, leakage, water pipelines, thermograms

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Authors: Amanda Rithieli Pereira Dos Santos, Rute Quelvia De Faria, Álvaro De Oliveira Cardoso, Anderson Rodrigo Da Silva, Érica Leão Fernandes Araújo

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The study of the kinetics of drying has great importance for the mathematical modeling, allowing to know about the processes of transference of heat and mass between the products and to adjust dryers managing new technologies for these processes. The present work had the objective of studying the kinetics of drying of soybean seeds and adjusting different statistical models to the experimental data varying cultivar and temperature. Soybean seeds were pre-dried in a natural environment in order to reduce and homogenize the water content to the level of 14% (b.s.). Then, drying was carried out in a forced air circulation oven at controlled temperatures of 38, 43, 48, 53 and 58 ± 1 ° C, using two soybean cultivars, BRS 8780 and Sambaíba, until reaching a hygroscopic equilibrium. The experimental design was completely randomized in factorial 5 x 2 (temperature x cultivar) with 3 replicates. To the experimental data were adjusted eleven statistical models used to explain the drying process of agricultural products. Regression analysis was performed using the least squares Gauss-Newton algorithm to estimate the parameters. The degree of adjustment was evaluated from the analysis of the coefficient of determination (R²), the adjusted coefficient of determination (R² Aj.) And the standard error (S.E). The models that best represent the drying kinetics of soybean seeds are those of Midilli and Logarítmico.

Keywords: curve of drying seeds, Glycine max L., moisture ratio, statistical models

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Authors: Alice Carter, Lucy Dumbell, Lorna Cameron, Victoria Lewis

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The Olympic discipline of eventing is the triathlon of equestrian sport, consisting of dressage, cross-country and show jumping. Falls on the cross-country are common and can be serious even causing death to rider. Research identifies an increased risk of a fall with an increasing number of obstacles and for jumping efforts later in the course suggesting fatigue maybe a contributing factor. Advice based on anecdotal evidence suggests riders undertake strength and conditioning programs to improve their ‘core’, thus improving their ability to maintain and control their riding position. There is little empirical evidence to support this advice. Therefore, the aim of this study is to investigate truck muscle fatigue and cognitive function during a simulated jumping test. Eight adult riders participated in a riding test on a Racewood Event simulator for 10 minutes, over a continuous jumping programme. The SEMG activity of six trunk muscles were bilaterally measured at every minute, and normalised root mean squares (RMS) and median frequencies (MDF) were computed from the EMG power spectra. Visual analogue scales (VAS) measuring Fatigue and Pain levels and Cognitive Function ‘tapping’ tests were performed before and after the riding test. Average MDF values for all muscles differed significantly between each sampled minute (p = 0.017), however a consistent decrease from Minute 1 and Minute 9 was not found, suggesting the trunk muscles fatigued and then recovered as other muscle groups important in maintaining the riding position during dynamic movement compensated. Differences between the MDF and RMS of different muscles were highly significant (H=213.01, DF=5, p < 0.001), supporting previous anecdotal evidence that different trunk muscles carry out different roles of posture maintenance during riding. RMS values were not significantly different between the sampled minutes or between riders, suggesting the riding test produced a consistent and repeatable effect on the trunk muscles. MDF values differed significantly between riders (H=50.8, DF = 5, p < 0.001), suggesting individuals may experience localised muscular fatigue of the same test differently, and that other parameters of physical fitness should be investigated to provide conclusions. Lumbar muscles were shown to be important in maintaining the position, therefore physical training program should focus on these areas. No significant differences were found between pre- and post-riding test VAS Pain and Fatigue scores or cognitive function test scores, suggesting the riding test was not significantly fatiguing for participants. However, a near significant correlation was found between time of riding test and VAS Pain score (p = 0.06), suggesting somatic pain may be a limiting factor to performance. No other correlations were found between the factors of participant riding test time, VAS Pain and Fatigue, however a larger sample needs to be tested to improve statistical analysis. The findings suggest the simulator riding test was not sufficient to provoke fatigue in the riders, however foundations for future studies have been laid to enable methodologies in realistic eventing settings.

Keywords: eventing, fatigue, horse-rider, surface EMG, trunk muscles

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Authors: Muhammad Akhtaruzzaman

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The impact of corporate environmental social and governance (ESG) on financial performance is often difficult to quantify despite the ESG related theories predict that ESG performance improves financial performance of a company. This research examines the link between corporate ESG performance and the financial performance of the NZX (New Zealand Stock Exchange) listed companies. For this purpose, this research utilizes mixed methods approaches to examine and understand this link. While quantitative results found no robust evidence of such a link, however, the qualitative analysis of content data suggests a strong cooccurrence exists between ESG performance and financial performance. The findings of this research have important implications for policymakers to support higher ESG-performing companies and for management practitioners to develop ESG-related strategies.

Keywords: ESG, financial performance, New Zealand firms, thematic analysis, mixed methods

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Authors: Amina Sultan, Mohamed Ghonim, Eman Oweida, Aya Abdelaziz

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Objective: To assess the diagnostic reliability of multi-detector CT in pre and post-operative evaluation of cochlear implant candidates. Material and Methods: The study includes 40 patients (18 males and 22 females); mean age 5.6 years. They were classified into two groups: Group A (20 patients): cochlear implant device was Nucleus-22 and Group B (20 patients): the device was MED-EL. Cochlear length (CL) and cochlear height (CH) were measured pre-operatively by 128-multidetector CT. Electrode length (EL) and insertion depth angle (α) were measured post-operatively by MDCT. Results: For Group A mean CL was 9.1 mm ± 0.4 SD; mean CH was 4.1 ± 0.3 SD; mean EL was 18 ± 2.7 SD; mean α angle was 299.05 ± 37 SD. Significant statistical correlation (P < 0.05) was found between preoperative CL and post-operative EL (r²=0.6); as well as EL and α angle (r²=0.7). Group B's mean CL was 9.1 mm ± 0.3 SD; mean CH was 4.1 ± 0.4 SD; mean EL was 27 ± 2.1 SD; mean α angle was 287.6 ± 41.7 SD. Significant statistical correlation was found between CL and EL (r²= 0.6) and α angle (r²=0.5). Also, a strong correlation was found between EL and α angle (r²=0.8). Significant statistical difference was detected between the two devices as regards to the electrode length. Conclusion: Multidetector CT is a reliable tool for preoperative planning and post-operative evaluation of the outcomes of cochlear implant operations. Cochlear length is a valuable prognostic parameter for prediction of the depth of electrode array insertion which can influence criteria of device selection.

Keywords: angle of insertion (α angle), cochlear implant (CI), cochlear length (CL), Multidetector Computed Tomography (MDCT)

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Authors: Aneta Oblouková, Eva Vítková

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The article deals with the issue of water and sewerage charge rate prices in the Czech Republic. The research is specifically focused on the analysis of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2021 and on the validation of the chosen methodology relevant for the prediction of the development of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rate in the Czech Republic. The research is based on data collection. The data for this research was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office. The aim of the paper is to validate the relevance of the mathematical linear trend estimate technique for the calculation of the predicted average prices of water and sewerage charge rates. The real values of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 1994-2018 were obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and were converted into a mathematical equation. The same type of real data was obtained from the Czech Statistical Office for the years 2019-2021. Prediction of the average prices of water and sewerage charge rates in the Czech Republic in the years 2019-2021 were also calculated using a chosen method -a linear trend estimation technique. The values obtained from the Czech Statistical Office and the values calculated using the chosen methodology were subsequently compared. The research result is a validation of the chosen mathematical technique to be a suitable technique for this research.

Keywords: Czech Republic, linear trend estimation, price prediction, water and sewerage charge rate

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Authors: Marisa Chrysochoou, James Mahoney, Kay Wille

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Pyrrhotite is an iron-sulfide mineral which releases sulfuric acid when exposed to water and oxygen. The presence of this mineral in concrete foundations across Connecticut and Massachusetts in the US is causing in some cases premature failure. This has resulted in a devastating crisis for all parties affected by this type of failure which can take up to 15-25 years before internal damage becomes visible on the surface. This study shares laboratory results aimed to investigate the fundamental mechanisms of pyrrhotite reaction and to further the understanding of its deterioration kinetics within concrete. This includes the following analyses: total sulfur, wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence, expansion, reaction rate combined with ion-chromatography, as well as damage evolution using electro-chemical acceleration. This information is coupled to a statistical analysis of over 150 analyzed concrete foundations. Those samples were obtained and process using a developed and validated sampling method that is minimally invasive to the foundation in use, provides representative samples of the concrete matrix across the entire foundation, and is time and cost-efficient. The processed samples were then analyzed using a developed modular testing method based on total sulfur and wavelength dispersive X-ray fluorescence analysis to quantify the amount of pyrrhotite. As part of the statistical analysis the results were grouped into the following three categories: no damage observed and no pyrrhotite detected, no damage observed and pyrrhotite detected and damaged observed and pyrrhotite detected. As expected, a strong correlation between amount of pyrrhotite, age of the concrete and damage is observed. Information from the laboratory investigation and from the statistical analysis of field samples will aid in forming a scientific basis to support the decision process towards sustainable financial and administrative solutions by state and local stakeholders.

Keywords: concrete, pyrrhotite, risk of failure, statistical analysis

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Authors: Genevieve Zingg

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Modern technology and social media platforms have fundamentally altered the nature of war crimes investigations by providing new forms of data, evidence, and documentation, and pose a unique opportunity to expand the efficacy of international law. However, much of the open source information available is deemed inadmissible in subsequent legal proceedings and fails to function as evidence largely due to issues of reliability and verifiability. Focusing on current judicial investigations related to ongoing conflicts in Syria and Iraq, this paper will examine key challenges and opportunities for the effective use of open source information in securing justice. This paper will consider strategies and approaches that can be used to ensure that information collected by affected populations meets basic admissibility standards. This paper argues that the critical failure to equip civilian populations in conflict zones with knowledge and information regarding established admissibility standards and guidelines both jeopardizes the potential of open source information and compromises the ability of victims to participate effectively in justice and accountability processes. The ultimate purpose of this paper is, therefore, to examine how to maximize the value of open source information based on the rules of evidence in international, regional, and national courts, and how to maximize the participation of affected populations in holding their abusers to account.

Keywords: human rights, international criminal law, international justice, international law, Iraq, open source information, social media, Syria, transitional justice, war crimes

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Authors: M. A. Ahmadu, S. S. Rabia

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During the past few decades, energy dissipation in the ionosphere resulting from the geomagnetic activity has caused an increasing number of major disruptions of important power and communication services, malfunctions and loss of expensive facilities. Here, the electron precipitation energy, w(ep) and joule heating energy, w(jh) was used in the computation of this dissipation using Østgaard’s empirical relation from hourly geomagnetic indices of 2012, under the assumption that the magnetosphere does not store any energy, so that at the beginning of the activity t1=0 and end at t2=t, the statistical results obtained show that ionospheric dissipation varies month to month, day to day and hour to hour and estimated with a value ~3.6 w(ep), which is in agreement with experimental result.

Keywords: Ostgaard's, ionospheric dissipation, joule heating, electron precipitation, geomagnetic indices, empirical relation

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Authors: D. Sengani, N. Potgieter, P. E. L. Mojapelo

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Three bacteria species which comprise of Gram negative and Gram positive microorganisms were isolated and identified on the basis of morpho-cultural study, catalase tests, oxidase tests and biochemical characteristics were found belonging to different genera including Burkholderia cepacia, Pasteurella pneumotropica and Enterococcus faecalis. The main objective of this study was to isolate and identify PCB degrading bacteria from PCB contaminated soils and test them for their degradation ability of PCBs in natural habitat conditions. The results indicated an overall decrease of PCB concentration level with the gradient average ranging from 1.5 to 1.8 respectively. Enterococcus faecalis removed as much as 32% of PCBs in the contaminated soil samples. Whereas Pasteurella pneumotropica could remove 24% of PCBs, Burkholderia cepacia 21% of PCBs and the mixed culture removed 23%. Data showed that the three bacterial strains could tolerate high concentration of PCBs. The results provided the evidence that naturally occurring bacteria in soil contaminated with PCBs have the potential to degrade PCBs. Statistical analysis showed that there was a significant positive correlation between bacteria growth and treatment with a coefficient of (r) =0.1459 and p value < 0.001.

Keywords: bacteria, bioaccumulation, biodegradation, bioremediation, polychlorinated biphenyls

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Authors: António Fiúza, Aurora Futuro, Joana Monteiro, Joaquim Góis

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Lepidolite is an important lithium mineral that, to the author’s best knowledge, has not been used to produce lithium hydroxide, which is necessary for energy conversion to electric vehicles. Alkaline leaching of lithium concentrates allows the establishment of a production diagram avoiding most of the environmental drawbacks that are associated with the usage of acid reagents. The tested processes involve a pretreatment by digestion at high temperatures with additives, followed by leaching at hot atmospheric pressure. The solutions obtained must be compatible with solutions from the leaching of spodumene concentrates, allowing the development of a common treatment diagram, an important accomplishment for the feasible exploitation of Portuguese resources. Statistical programming and interpretation techniques minimize the laboratory effort required by conventional approaches and allow phenomenological comprehension.

Keywords: alkaline leaching, lithium, research design, statistical interpretation

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Authors: Ruba Hamed, Khaled Hussainey, Basiem Al-Shattarat, Wasim Al-Shattarat

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This paper examines how the influence of mandating corporate social responsibility reporting (CSR) on subsequent financial performance through accounting-based measures and market-based measures. We provide evidence about the negative impact of reporting CSR voluntarily on the firm’s future performance due to the increased spending on and costs related to such activities. On the contrary, mandating CSR reporting enhances firms’ future performance by signalling to the market about the firm’s positive stance towards sustainability issues in the UK. Our findings are of interest to regulation setters and stakeholders with respect to mandatory CSR reporting and provide further insight and feedback into accounting and reporting practices.

Keywords: accounting-based performance, mandatory CSR, mandatory regulation, market-based performance

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Authors: Sherif Sabri, Nael Samir, Mohamed Ali, Ahmed ElSakhawy

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Introduction: There is growing evidence to support the hypothesis that serum matrix metalloproteinase -9 in could be an early predictor of mortality in septic patients. Aim of the work: Study the relationship of matrix metalloproteinase 9 in patients with SIRS in comparison to septic patients in day 0 and day 2. Patients and Methods: This is a prospective observational study conducted on 40 adult critically ill patients staying more than 24 hours in ICU either surgical or medical department, El Fayoum General Hospital in the period from November 2014 to March 2015. Patients met at least two of the criteria for severe inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). Diagnostic criteria include several clinical and laboratory findings of sepsis induced tissue hypoperfusion or organ dysfunction. Samples were grouped as drawn either at admission, or at day 2 after admission. Results: Patients were divided into two groups: The non-sepsis (SIRS) group, which included 15 (37.5%) patients with no later evidence of sepsis were enrolled as controls. The Sepsis group, which included 25 patients diagnosed to have SIRS with later evidence of sepsis with positive culture. Exploring serum level of MMP-9 in non-survivors and survivors, there was significant increase in non-survivors if compared to survivors at admission p-value 0.001 (mean value in survivors 4.4mg/dl±4.1mg/dl at admission versus mean value in non-survivors 11.9mg/dl±5.8mg/dl) and after two days of admission was also significant increase p-value 0.001 (mean value in survivors 10.9mg/dl ±9.4mg/dl versus mean value in non-survivors 22.6mg/dl±10.4). Conclusion: MMP-9 levels in septic patients have a beneficial role in ICU for high-risk stratification as it is an independent marker of mortality in severe sepsis.

Keywords: matrix metalloproteinase (MMP-9), sepsis, septic shock, systemic inflamatory response syndrome

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Authors: Tingting Zhou

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The partial privatization of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is a dynamic process. The main features of this process lie in not only gradual and sequential privatizations, but also privatized shares transfer. For partially privatized SOEs, the introduction of private sector ownership is not the end of the story because the previously introduced private owners may choose to leave the SOEs by transferring the privatized shares after privatization, a process that is called “privatized shares transfer”. This paper investigates the determinants of privatized shares transfer from the perspective of large shareholders’ control rights. The results captures the fact that the higher control rights of large shareholders lead to more privatized shares transfer. After exploring the impacts of excessive control rights, the results provide evidence supporting the idea that firms with excessive numbers of directors, senior managers or supervisors who also have positions in the largest controlling shareholder’s entity are more likely to transfer privatized shares owned by private owners. In addition, the largest shareholders’ ownership also plays a role in privatized shares transfer. This evidence suggests that the large shareholders’ control rights should be limited to an appropriate range during the process of privatization, thereby giving private shareholders more opportunity to participate in the operation of firms, strengthen the state and enhance the competitiveness of state capital.

Keywords: control rights of large shareholders, partial privatization, privatized shares transfer, state-owned listed companies

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Authors: Balazs Somodi, Balazs Kovesdi

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In the research praxis of civil engineering the statistical evaluation of experimental and numerical investigations is an essential task in order to compare the experimental and numerical resistances of a specific structural problem with the proposed resistances of the standards. However, in the standards and in the international literature there are several different safety factor evaluation methods that can be used to check the necessary safety level (e.g.: 5% quantile level, 2.3% quantile level, 1‰ quantile level, γM partial safety factor, γM* partial safety factor, β reliability index). Moreover, in the international literature different calculation methods could be found even for the same safety factor as well. In the present study the flexural buckling resistance of high strength steel (HSS) welded closed sections are analyzed. The authors investigated the flexural buckling resistances of the analyzed columns by laboratory experiments. In the present study the safety levels of the obtained experimental resistances are calculated based on several safety approaches and compared with the EN 1990. The results of the different safety approaches are compared and evaluated. Based on the evaluation tendencies are identified and the differences between the statistical evaluation methods are explained.

Keywords: flexural buckling, high strength steel, partial safety factor, statistical evaluation

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Authors: Jianjia Wang, Tong Yu, Haoran Zhu, Kun Liu, Jinwei Hao

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The underlying pattern in the modern city is agglomeration. To some degree, the distribution of urban spatial density can be used to describe the status of this assemblage. There are three intrinsic characteristics to measure urban spatial density, namely, Floor Area Ratio (FAR), Building Coverage Ratio (BCR), and Average Storeys (AS). But the underlying mechanism that contributes to these quantities is still vague in the statistical urban study. In this paper, we explore the corresponding extrinsic factors related to spatial density. These factors can further provide the potential influence on the intrinsic quantities. Here, we take Shanghai Inner Ring Area and Manhattan in New York as examples to analyse the potential impacts on urban spatial density with six selected extrinsic elements. Ebery single factor presents the correlation to the spatial distribution, but the overall global impact of all is still implicit. To handle this issue, we attempt to develop the Boltzmann statistical model to explicitly explain the mechanism behind that. We derive a corresponding novel quantity, called capacity, to measure the global effects of all other extrinsic factors to the three intrinsic characteristics. The distribution of capacity presents a similar pattern to real measurements. This reveals the nonlinear influence on the multi-factor relations to the urban spatial density in agglomeration.

Keywords: urban spatial density, Boltzmann statistics, multi-factor correlation, spatial distribution

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Authors: Ahmad Luthfi

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One of the main goals of a computer forensic analyst is to determine the cause and effect of the acquisition of a digital evidence in order to obtain relevant information on the case is being handled. In order to get fast and accurate results, this paper will discuss the approach known as ontology framework. This model uses a structured hierarchy of layers that create connectivity between the variant and searching investigation of activity that a computer forensic analysis activities can be carried out automatically. There are two main layers are used, namely analysis tools and operating system. By using the concept of ontology, the second layer is automatically designed to help investigator to perform the acquisition of digital evidence. The methodology of automation approach of this research is by utilizing forward chaining where the system will perform a search against investigative steps and atomically structured in accordance with the rules of the ontology.

Keywords: ontology, framework, automation, forensics

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Authors: Angela Maria Fasnacht

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Detection of anomalies due to contaminants’ presence, also known as early detection systems in water treatment plants, has become a critical point that deserves an in-depth study for their improvement and adaptation to current requirements. The design of these systems requires a detailed analysis and processing of the data in real-time, so it is necessary to apply various statistical methods appropriate to the data generated, such as Spearman’s Correlation, Factor Analysis, Cross-Correlation, and k-fold Cross-validation. Statistical analysis and methods allow the evaluation of large data sets to model the behavior of variables; in this sense, statistical treatment or analysis could be considered a vital step to be able to develop advanced models focused on machine learning that allows optimized data management in real-time, applied to early detection systems in water treatment processes. These techniques facilitate the development of new technologies used in advanced sensors. In this work, these methods were applied to identify the possible correlations between the measured parameters and the presence of the glyphosate contaminant in the single-pass system. The interaction between the initial concentration of glyphosate and the location of the sensors on the reading of the reported parameters was studied.

Keywords: glyphosate, emergent contaminants, machine learning, probes, sensors, predictive

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Authors: Boopen Seetanah, R. V. Sannassee, Sheereen Fauzel, Robin Nunkoo

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The bulk of research on the impact of research and development (R&D) has been carried out in developed economies where the intensity of R&D expenditure has been relatively high and stable for many years. However, there is a paucity of similar studies in developing countries. In this paper, we provide empirical estimates of the impact of R&D investment on economic growth in a developing African economy (Mauritius) where R&D expenditure intensity has been low initially, but rising, albeit moderately in recent years. Using a dynamic time series analysis over the period 1980 to 2014 in a Vector Autoregressive framework, R & D is shown to have a positive and significant effect on the economic progress of the island, although the impact is considerably less when compared to both other ingredients of growth and also to reported elasticities fromdeveloped economies . Interestingly, there is evidence of bicausality between R & D and growth. furthermore, R & D positively impacts on both domestic and foreign investment, suggesting the possibilities of indirect effects.

Keywords: R & D, VECM, Africa, Mauritius

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Authors: Hasan Vural

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Turkey is a favorable country to produce a great variety of agricultural products because of her different geographic and climatic conditions which have been used to divide the country into four main and seven sub regions. This classification into seven regions traditionally has been used in order to data collection and publication especially related with agricultural production. Afterwards, nine agricultural regions were considered. Recently, the governmental body which is responsible of data collection and dissemination (Turkish Institute of Statistics-TIS) has used 12 classes which include 11 sub regions and Istanbul province. This study aims to evaluate these classification efforts based on the acreage of ten main crops in a ten years time period (1996-2005). The panel data grouped in 11 subregions has been evaluated by cluster and multivariate statistical methods. It was concluded that from the agricultural production point of view, it will be rather meaningful to consider three main and eight sub-agricultural regions throughout the country.

Keywords: agricultural region, factorial analysis, cluster analysis,

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Authors: Meriem Taleb, Ghania Tail, Fatma Zohra Kara, Brahim Djedouani, T. Moussa

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Forensic entomology is the use of insects and their arthropod relatives as silent witnesses to aid legal investigations by interpreting information concerning a death. The main purpose of forensic entomology is to establish the postmortem interval or PMI Postmortem interval is a matter of crucial importance in the investigations of homicide and other untimely deaths when the body found is after three days. Forensic entomology has grown immensely as a discipline in the past thirty years. In Algeria, forensic entomology was introduced in 2010 by the National Institute for Criminalistics and Criminology of the National Gendarmerie (NICC). However, all the work that has been done so far in this growing field in Algeria has been unknown at both the national and international levels. In this context, the aim of this paper is to describe the state of forensic entomology in Algeria. The Laboratory of Entomology of the NICC is the only one of its kind in Algeria. It started its activities in 2010, consisting of two specialists. The main missions of the laboratory are estimation of the PMI by the analysis of entomological evidence, and determination if the body was moved. Currently, the laboratory is performing different tasks such as the expert work required by investigators to estimate the PMI using the insects. The estimation is performed by the accumulated degree days method (ADD) in most of the cases except for those where the cadaver is in dry decay. To assure the quality of the entomological evidence, crime scene personnel are trained by the laboratory of Entomology of the NICC. Recently, undergraduate and graduate students have been studying carrion ecology and insect activity in different geographic locations of Algeria using rabbits and wild boar cadavers as animal models. The Laboratory of Entomology of the NICC has also been involved in some of these research projects. Entomotoxicology experiments are also conducted with the collaboration of the Toxicology Department of the NICC. By dint of hard work that has been performed by the Laboratory of Entomology of the NICC, official bodies have been adopting more and more the use of entomological evidence in criminal investigations in Algeria, which is commendable. It is important, therefore, that steps are taken to fill in the gaps in the knowledge necessary for entomological evidence to have a useful future in criminal investigations in Algeria.

Keywords: forensic entomology, corpse, insects, postmortem interval, expertise, Algeria

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Authors: Armando T. Zúñiga

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As the number of English Language Learners (ELLs) in public schools continues to grow, so does the achievement gap between ELLs and other student populations. In an effort to support classroom teachers with effective instructional strategies for this student population, many districts have created instructional coaching positions specifically to support classroom teachers of ELLs—ELL Teachers on Special Assignment (ELL TOSAs). This study employed a gap analysis framework to the ELL TOSA professional support program in one California school district to examine knowledge, motivation, and organizational influences (KMO) on the ELL TOSAs’ goal of supporting classroom teachers of ELLs. Three themes emerged as a result of data analysis. First, there was evidence to illustrate the interaction between knowledge and the organization. Data from ELL TOSAs indicated an understanding of the role that collaboration plays in coaching and how to operationalize it in their support of teachers. Further, all of the ELL TOSAs indicated they have received professional development on effective strategies for instructional coaching. Additionally, a large percentage of the ELL TOSAs indicated a knowledge of modeling as an effective coaching practice. Accordingly, all of the ELL TOSAs indicated that they had knowledge of feedback as an effective coaching strategy. However, there was not sufficient evidence to support that they learned the latter two strategies through professional development. A second theme surfaced as there was evidence to illustrate an interaction between motivation and the organization. Some ELL TOSAs indicated that their sense of self-efficacy was affected by conflicting roles and expectations for the job. Most of the ELL TOSAs indicated that their sense of self-efficacy was affected by an increased workload brought about by fiscal decision making. Finally, there was evidence illustrating the interaction between the organization and motivation. The majority of the of ELL TOSAs indicated that there is confusion about how their roles are perceived, leaving the ELL TOSAs to feel that their actions did not contribute to instructional change. In conclusion, five research-based recommendations to support ELL TOSA goal attainment and considerations for future research on instructional coaches for classroom teachers of ELLs are provided.

Keywords: English language development, English language acquisition, language and leadership, language coaching, English language learners, second language acquisition

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Authors: Hassan Manouchehri

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The present study aimed to identify and evaluate the factors affecting violence against women. The statistical population included all couples referring to family counseling centers in Tehran due to domestic violence during the past year. A number of 305 people were selected as a statistical sample using simple random sampling and Cochran's formula in unlimited conditions. A researcher-made questionnaire including 110 items was used for data collection. The face validity and content validity of the questionnaire were confirmed by 30 experts and its reliability was obtained above 0.7 for all studied variables in a preliminary test with 30 subjects and it was acceptable. In order to analyze the data, descriptive statistical methods were used with SPSS software version 22 and inferential statistics were used for modeling structural equations in Smart PLS software version 2. Evaluating the theoretical framework and domestic and foreign studies indicated that, in general, four main factors, including cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, as well as medical factors, underlie violence against women. In addition, structural equation modeling findings indicated that cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, and medical factors affect violence against women.

Keywords: violence against women, cultural and social factors, economic factors, legal factors, medical factors

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Authors: Nicolás Rudas

Abstract:

Sociologists have brought to light the fascination of contemporary societies with numbers but fall short of explaining it. In their accounts, people generally misunderstand the technical intricacies of statistical knowledge and therefore accept numbers as unassailable “facts”. It is due to such pervasive fascination, furthermore, that both old and new forms of social control find fertile ground. By focusing on the process whereby the fetishization of numbers reaches its zenith, i.e., when specific statistics become emblematic of an entire society, it is asserted that numbers primarily function as moral symbols with immense potential for galvanizing collective action. Their “facticity” is not solely a cognitive problem but one that is deeply rooted in myth and connected with social experiences of epiphany and ritual. Evidence from Colombia is used to illustrate how certain quantifications become canonical. In 2021, Colombia’s Peace Court revealed that the national army had executed 6,402 innocent civilians to later report them as members of illegal armed groups. Rapidly, “6,402” transformed into a prominent item in the country’s political landscape. This article reconstructs such a process by following the first six months of the figure’s circulation, both in traditional and social media. In doing so, it is developed a new cultural-sociological conceptualization of numbers as “fact-icons” that departs from traditional understandings of statistics as “technical” objects. Numbers are icons whose appropriation is less rational than aesthetic.

Keywords: culture, statistics, collective memory, social movements

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Authors: K. Hardy, A. Maurushat

Abstract:

Policy makers are increasingly looking to make evidence-based decisions. Evidence-based decisions have historically used rigorous methodologies of empirical studies by research institutes, as well as less reliable immediate survey/polls often with limited sample sizes. As we move into the era of Big Data analytics, policy makers are looking to different methodologies to deliver reliable empirics in real-time. The question is not why did these people do this for the last 10 years, but why are these people doing this now, and if the this is undesirable, and how can we have an impact to promote change immediately. Big data analytics rely heavily on government data that has been released in to the public domain. The open data movement promises greater productivity and more efficient delivery of services; however, Australian government agencies remain reluctant to release their data to the general public. This paper considers the barriers to releasing government data as open data, and how these barriers might be overcome.

Keywords: big data, open data, productivity, data governance

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Authors: Yimeng Zhang

Abstract:

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a prevalent mental health condition with a substantial economic impact and limited treatment options. Acupuncture has gained attention as a promising non-pharmacological intervention for alleviating depressive symptoms. However, its mechanisms and clinical effectiveness remain incompletely understood. This meta-analysis aims to (1) synthesize existing evidence on the mechanisms and clinical effectiveness of acupuncture for depression and (2) compare these findings with pharmacological interventions, providing insights for future research. Evidence from animal models and clinical studies indicates that acupuncture may enhance hippocampal and network neuroplasticity and reduce brain inflammation, potentially alleviating depressive disorders. Clinical studies suggest that acupuncture can effectively relieve primary depression, particularly in milder cases, and is beneficial in managing post-stroke depression, pain-related depression, and postpartum depression, both as a standalone and adjunctive treatment. Notably, combining acupuncture with antidepressant pharmacotherapy appears to enhance treatment outcomes and reduce medication side effects, addressing a critical issue in conventional drug therapy's high dropout rates. This meta-analysis, encompassing 12 studies and 710 participants, draws data from eight digital databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, EBSCOhost, CNKI, CBM, Wangfang, and CQVIP) covering the period from 2012 to 2022. Utilizing Stata software 15.0, the meta-analysis employed random-effects and fixed-effects models to assess the distribution of depression in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM). The results underscore the substantial evidence supporting acupuncture's beneficial effects on depression. However, the small sample sizes of many clinical trials raise concerns about the generalizability of the findings, indicating a need for further research to validate these outcomes and optimize acupuncture's role in treating depression.

Keywords: Chinese medicine, acupuncture, depression, meta-analysis

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Authors: Federico Pittino, Thomas Arnold

Abstract:

The shredding of waste materials is a key step in the recycling process towards the circular economy. Industrial shredders for waste processing operate in very harsh operating conditions, leading to the need for frequent maintenance of critical components. Maintenance optimization is particularly important also to increase the machine’s efficiency, thereby reducing the operational costs. In this work, a monitoring system has been developed and deployed on an industrial shredder located at a waste recycling plant in Austria. The machine has been monitored for one year, and methods for predictive maintenance have been developed for two key components: the cutting knives and the drive belt. The large amount of collected data is leveraged by statistical machine learning techniques, thereby not requiring very detailed knowledge of the machine or its live operating conditions. The results show that, despite the wide range of operating conditions, a reliable estimate of the optimal time for maintenance can be derived. Moreover, the trade-off between the cost of maintenance and the increase in power consumption due to the wear state of the monitored components of the machine is investigated. This work proves the benefits of real-time monitoring system for the efficient operation of industrial shredders.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, circular economy, industrial shredder, cost optimization, statistical machine learning

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Authors: Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter

Abstract:

Law enforcement agencies are tasked with crime prevention and crime reduction under limited resources. Having an accurate temporal estimate of the crime rate would be valuable to achieve such a goal. However, estimation is usually complicated by the interval-censored nature of crime data. We cast the problem of intensity estimation as a Poisson regression using an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Two special penalties are added that provide smoothness over the time of day and day of the week. This approach presented here provides accurate intensity estimates and can also uncover day-of-week clusters that share the same intensity patterns. Anticipating where and when crimes might occur is a key element to successful policing strategies. However, this task is complicated by the presence of interval-censored data. The censored data refers to the type of data that the event time is only known to lie within an interval instead of being observed exactly. This type of data is prevailing in the field of criminology because of the absence of victims for certain types of crime. Despite its importance, the research in temporal analysis of crime has lagged behind the spatial component. Inspired by the success of solving crime-related problems with a statistical approach, we propose a statistical model for the temporal intensity estimation of crime with censored data. The model is built on Poisson regression and has special penalty terms added to the likelihood. An EM algorithm was derived to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, and the resulting model shows superior performance to the competing model. Our research is in line with the smart policing initiative (SPI) proposed by the Bureau Justice of Assistance (BJA) as an effort to support law enforcement agencies in building evidence-based, data-driven law enforcement tactics. The goal is to identify strategic approaches that are effective in crime prevention and reduction. In our case, we allow agencies to deploy their resources for a relatively short period of time to achieve the maximum level of crime reduction. By analyzing a particular area within cities where data are available, our proposed approach could not only provide an accurate estimate of intensities for the time unit considered but a time-variation crime incidence pattern. Both will be helpful in the allocation of limited resources by either improving the existing patrol plan with the understanding of the discovery of the day of week cluster or supporting extra resources available.

Keywords: cluster detection, EM algorithm, interval censoring, intensity estimation

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