Search results for: sensitivity index

Authors: Sara D. Garduno-Diaz, Philippe Y. Garduno-Diaz

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To date, one of the few comprehensive indicators for the measurement of food security is the Global Food Security Index. This index is a dynamic quantitative and qualitative bench marking model, constructed from 28 unique indicators, that measures drivers of food security across both developing and developed countries. Whereas the Global Food Security Index has been calculated across a set of 109 countries, in this paper we aim to present and compare, for the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), 1) the Food Security Index scores achieved and 2) the data available on affordability, availability, and quality of food. The data for this work was taken from the latest (2014) report published by the creators of the GFSI, which in turn used information from national and international statistical sources. According to the 2014 Global Food Security Index, MENA countries rank from place 17/109 (Israel, although with resent political turmoil this is likely to have changed) to place 91/109 (Yemen) with household expenditure spent in food ranging from 15.5% (Israel) to 60% (Egypt). Lower spending on food as a share of household consumption in most countries and better food safety net programs in the MENA have contributed to a notable increase in food affordability. The region has also however experienced a decline in food availability, owing to more limited food supplies and higher volatility of agricultural production. In terms of food quality and safety the MENA has the top ranking country (Israel). The most frequent challenges faced by the countries of the MENA include public expenditure on agricultural research and development as well as volatility of agricultural production. Food security is a complex phenomenon that interacts with many other indicators of a country’s well-being; in the MENA it is slowly but markedly improving.

Keywords: diet, food insecurity, global food security index, nutrition, sustainability

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Authors: Hayder Kamil Shanbara, Felicite Ruddock, William Atherton, Nassier A. Nassir

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Cold bitumen emulsion mixture (CBEM) offers a series benefits as compared with hot mix asphalt (HMA); these include environmental factors, energy saving, the resolution of logistical challenges that can characterise hot mix, and the potential to reserve funds. However, this mixture has some problems similar to any bituminous mixtures as it has low early strength, long curing time that needed to obtain the maximum performance, high air voids and considered inferior to HMA. Thus, CBEM has been used in limited applications such as lightly trafficked roads, footways and reinstatements. This laboratory study describes the development of CBEM using ordinary Portland cement (OPC) instead of the traditional mineral filler. Stiffness modulus, moisture damage and temperature sensitivity tests were used to evaluate the mechanical properties of the produced mixtures. The study concluded that there is a substantial improvement in the mechanical properties and moisture damage resistance of CBEMs containing OPC. Also, the produced cement modified CBEM shows a considerable lower thermal sensitivity than the conventional CBEM.

Keywords: cold bitumen emulsion mixture, moisture damage, OPC, stiffness modulus, temperature sensitivity

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Authors: Fiyinfoluwa Giwa, Nicholas Ngepah

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This paper investigates the relationship between the Fourth Industrial Revolution and food security in South Africa. The Ordinary Least Square was adopted from 2012 Q1 to 2021 Q4. The study used artificial intelligence investment and the food production index as the measure for the fourth industrial revolution and food security, respectively. Findings reveal a significant and positive coefficient of 0.2887, signifying a robust statistical relationship between AI adoption and the food production index. As a policy recommendation, this paper recommends the introduction of incentives for farmers and agricultural enterprises to adopt AI technologies -and the expansion of digital connectivity and access to technology in rural areas.

Keywords: Fourth Industrial Revolution, food security, artificial intelligence investment, food production index, ordinary least square

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Authors: Fatemeh Najafi

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The major stress factor limiting crop growth and development of sesame (Sesamum indicum L.) is drought stress in arid and semiarid regions of the world. For this study the effects of water stress on some qualitative and quantitative traits in sesame germplasm was conducted in the Research Farm of Seed and Plant Improvement Institute, Karaj, in the crop year. Genotypes in a randomized complete block design with three replications in two environments (moisture stress and normal) were studied in regard of the seed weight, capsule weight, grain yield, biomass, plant height, number of capsules per plant, etc. The characteristics were evaluated based on the combined analysis. Irrigation was based on first class evaporation basin. After flowering stage drought stress was applied. The water deficit reduced growth period. Days to reach full ripening decreased so that the reduction was significant at the five percent level. Drought stress reduces yield and plant biomass. Genotypes based on combined analysis of these two traits were significant at the one percent level. Genotypes differ in terms of yield stress in terms of density plots, grain yield, days to first flowering and days to the half of the cap on the confidence level of five percent and traits of days to emergence of the first capsule and days to reach full ripening at the one percent level were significant. Other traits were not significant. The correlation of traits in circumstances of stress the number of seeds per capsule has the greatest impact on performance. The sensitivity and stress tolerance index was calculated. Based on the indicators, (Fars variety) and variety Karaj were identified as the most tolerant genotypes among the studied genotypes to drought stress. The highest sensitivity indicator of stress was related to genotype (FARS).

Keywords: sesamum, drought, stress, germplasm, resistance

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Authors: J. Wicks

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Aim: To develop a simple methodology to allow collected heart rate (HR) data from inexpensive wearable devices to be expressed in a suitable format (METs) to quantitate occupational (and recreational) activity. Introduction: Assessment of occupational activity is commonly done by utilizing questionnaires in combination with prescribed MET levels of a vast range of previously measured activities. However for any individual the intensity of performing a specific activity can vary significantly. Ideally objective measurement of individual activity is preferred. Though there are a wide range of HR recording devices there is a distinct lack methodology to allow processing of collected data to quantitate energy expenditure (EE). The HR index equation expresses METs in relation to relative HR i.e. the ratio of activity HR to resting HR. The use of this equation provides a simple utility for objective measurement of EE. Methods: During a typical occupational work period of approximately 8 hours HR data was recorded using a Polar RS 400 wrist monitor. Recorded data was downloaded to a Windows PC and non HR data was stripped from the ASCII file using ‘Notepad’. The HR data was exported to a spread sheet program and sorted by HR range into a histogram format. Three HRs were determined, namely a resting HR (the HR delimiting the lowest 30 minutes of recorded data), a mean HR and a peak HR (the HR delimiting the highest 30 minutes of recorded data). HR indices were calculated (mean index equals mean HR/rest HR and peak index equals peak HR/rest HR) with mean and peak indices being converted to METs using the HR index equation. Conclusion: Inexpensive HR recording devices can be utilized to make reasonable estimates of occupational (or recreational) EE suitable for large scale demographic screening by utilizing the HR index equation. The intrinsic value of the HR index equation is that it is independent of factors that influence absolute HR, namely fitness, smoking and beta-blockade.

Keywords: energy expenditure, heart rate histograms, heart rate index, occupational activity

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Authors: Zeina Merabi, Arij Dao

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The temporal order of information processing in the brain is an important code in many acoustic signals, including speech, music, and animal vocalizations. Despite its significance, surprisingly little is known about its underlying cellular mechanisms and network manifestations. In the songbird telencephalic nucleus HVC, a subset of neurons shows temporal combination sensitivity (TCS). These neurons show a high temporal specificity, responding differently to distinct patterns of spectral elements and their combinations. HVC neuron types include basal-ganglia-projecting HVCX, forebrain-projecting HVCRA, and interneurons (HVC¬INT), each exhibiting distinct cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. In this work, we develop conductance-based neural network models connecting the different classes of HVC neurons via different wiring scenarios, aiming to explore possible neural mechanisms that orchestrate the combination sensitivity property exhibited by HVCX, as well as replicating in vivo firing patterns observed when TCS neurons are presented with various auditory stimuli. The ionic and synaptic currents for each class of neurons that are presented in our networks and are based on pharmacological studies, rendering our networks biologically plausible. We present for the first time several realistic scenarios in which the different types of HVC neurons can interact to produce this behavior. The different networks highlight neural mechanisms that could potentially help to explain some aspects of combination sensitivity, including 1) interplay between inhibitory interneurons’ activity and the post inhibitory firing of the HVCX neurons enabled by T-type Ca2+ and H currents, 2) temporal summation of synaptic inputs at the TCS site of opposing signals that are time-and frequency- dependent, and 3) reciprocal inhibitory and excitatory loops as a potent mechanism to encode information over many milliseconds. The result is a plausible network model characterizing auditory processing in HVC. Our next step is to test the predictions of the model.

Keywords: combination sensitivity, songbirds, neural networks, spatiotemporal integration

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Authors: Mustafa Metin Donma, Orkide Donma

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Vitamin deficiencies are common in obese individuals. Particularly, the status of vitamin B12 and its association with vitamin B9 (folate) and vitamin D is under investigation in recent time. Vitamin B12 is closely related to many vital processes in the body. In clinical studies, its involvement in fat metabolism draws attention from the obesity point of view. Obesity, in its advanced stages and in combination with metabolic syndrome (MetS) findings, may be a life-threatening health problem. Pediatric obesity is particularly important because it may be a predictor of severe chronic diseases during the adulthood period of the child. Due to its role in fat metabolism, vitamin B12 deficiency may disrupt metabolic pathways of the lipid and energy metabolisms in the body. The association of low B12 levels with obesity degree may be an interesting topic to be investigated. Obesity indices may be helpful at this point. Weight- and fat-based indices are available. Of them, body mass index (BMI) is in the first group. Fat mass index (FMI), fat-free mass index (FFMI) and diagnostic obesity notation model assessment-II (D2I) index lie in the latter group. The aim of this study is to clarify possible associations between vitamin B12 status and obesity indices in the pediatric population. The study comprises a total of one hundred and twenty-two children. Thirty-two children were included in the normal body mass index (N-BMI) group. Forty-six and forty-four children constitute groups with morbid obese children without MetS and with MetS, respectively. Informed consent forms and the approval of the institutional ethics committee were obtained. Tables prepared for obesity classification by World Health Organization were used. Metabolic syndrome criteria were defined. Anthropometric and blood pressure measurements were taken. Body mass index, FMI, FFMI, D2I were calculated. Routine laboratory tests were performed. Vitamin B9, B12, D concentrations were determined. Statistical evaluation of the study data was performed. Vitamin B9 and vitamin D levels were reduced in MetS group compared to children with N-BMI (p>0.05). Significantly lower values were observed in vitamin B12 concentrations of MetS group (p<0.01). Upon evaluation of blood pressure as well as triglyceride levels, there exist significant increases in morbid obese children. Significantly decreased concentrations of high density lipoprotein cholesterol were observed. All of the obesity indices and insulin resistance index exhibit increasing tendency with the severity of obesity. Inverse correlations were calculated between vitamin D and insulin resistance index as well as vitamin B12 and D2I in morbid obese groups. In conclusion, a fat-based index, D2I, was the most prominent body index, which shows a strong correlation with vitamin B12 concentrations in the late stage of obesity in children. A negative correlation between these two parameters was a confirmative finding related to the association between vitamin B12 and obesity degree.

Keywords: body mass index, children, D2I index, fat mass index, obesity

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Authors: Dawit Gebreegzabher Hagos, Yazezew Kebede Kiro, Mahmud Abdulkader, Henk H. D. F. Schallig, Dawit Wolday

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Rapid and accurate visceral leishmaniasis (VL) diagnosis is needed to initiate prompt treatment to reduce morbidity and mortality. Here, we evaluated the performance of loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) assay for the diagnosis of VL from blood in an endemic area in Ethiopia. LAMP was positive in 117/122 confirmed VL cases and negative in 149/152 controls, resulting in a sensitivity of 95.9% (95% CI: 90.69–98.66) and a specificity of 98.0% (95% CI: 94.34–99.59), respectively. The sensitivity of the LAMP assay was 95.0% (95% CI: 88.61–98.34) in HIV-negatives and 100% (95% CI: 85.18–100.0) in HIV-positives. Compared with microscopy, LAMP detected 82/87 (94.3%, 95% CI: 87.10–98.11) of the microscopy1 cases and was negative in 11/27 (40.7%, 95% CI: 22.39–61.20) of the microscopy2 cases. Compared with the rK39 serology, LAMP detected 113/120 (94.2%, 95% CI: 88.35–97.62) of the rK391 cases and was negative in 149/154 (96.8%, 95% CI: 92.59–98.94) of the rK392 cases. However, when compared with microscopy only, rK39 detected 83/87 (95.4%, 95% CI: 88.64–98.73) of the microscopy1 cases and negative in only 12/27 (44.4%, 95% CI: 25.48–64.67) of the microscopy– cases. There was an excellent agreement between rK39 and LAMP (Kappa 5 0.91, 95% CI: 0.86–0.96). Furthermore, an algorithm using rK39 followed by LAMP would yield a sensitivity of 99.2% (95%CI: 95.52–99.89) and a specificity of 98.0% (95% CI: 94.34–99.59). The findings demonstrate that the LAMP assay is an accurate and rapid molecular assay for VL diagnosis, including in HIV-1 co-infected patients, in an endemic setting.

Keywords: visceral leishmaniasis, HIV, diagnosis, LAMP, Ethiopia

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Authors: Sara Boulmai̇z

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In order to study the microbiological quality of chawarma sold in Biskra, a sampling through some fastfoods of the city was done, the parameters studied are highlighted according to the criteria required by the country's trade management. Microbiological analyzes revealed different levels of contamination by microorganisms. The 10 samples were of an overall view of unsatisfactory quality, and according to the standards, no sample was satisfactory. The range of total aerobic mesophilic flora found is between 105 and 1.2 × 10 7 CFU / g, that of fecal coliforms is 104 to 2.4 × 10 5 CFU / g. The suspected pathogenic staphylococci were between 3.103 and 2.7.106 CFU / g. Salmonellae were absent in all samples, whereas sulphite-reducing anaerobes were present in a single sample. The rate of E. cloacae was between 103 and 6.104 CFU / g. As for fungi and safe mice, their rate was 103 to 107 CFU / g. The study of the sensitivity of antibiotics showed multi-resistance to all the antibiotics tested, although there is a sensitivity towards others. All strains of Staphylococcus aureus tested demonstrated resistance against erythromycin, 30% against streptomycin, and 10% against tetracycline. While the strains of E. cloacae were resistant in all strains to amoxicillin, ceftazidime, cefotaxime, and erythromycin, while they were sensitive to fosfomycin, sulfamethoxazole trimethoperine, ciprofloxacin, and tetracycline. While against chlorophenicol and ofloxacin, the sensitivity was dominant, although there was intermediate resistance. In this study demonstrates that foodborne illnesses remain a problem that arises in addition to the increasingly observed bacterial resistance and that, after all, healthy eating is a right.

Keywords: chawarma, microbiological quality, pathogens., street food

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Authors: Shaban Guma, Naim Bajcinca

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We propose an event-triggered algorithm for the solution of a distributed optimization problem by means of the projected subgradient method. Thereby, we invoke an OFDMA resource allocation scheme by applying an event-triggered sensitivity analysis at the access point. The optimal resource assignment of the subcarriers to the involved wireless nodes is carried out by considering the sensitivity analysis of the overall objective function as defined by the control of vehicle clusters with respect to the information exchange between the nodes.

Keywords: consensus, cross-layer, distributed, event-triggered, multi-vehicle, protocol, resource, OFDMA, wireless

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Authors: Durga Prasad Sapkota, Madhu Sudan Kayastha, Koichi Wakita

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In this paper, we have compared and analyzed the electron absorption properties between with and without excitonic effect bulk in high purity GaAs spatial light modulator for an optical fiber communication network. The electroabsorption properties such as absorption spectra, change in absorption spectra, change in refractive index and extinction ratio have been calculated. We have also compared the result of absorption spectra and change in absorption spectra with the experimental results and found close agreement with experimental results.

Keywords: exciton, refractive index change, extinction ratio, GaAs

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Authors: Aniela Pop, Ianina Birsan, Corina Orha, Rodica Pode, Florica Manea

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Carbon nanofiber-epoxy composite electrode has been investigated through voltammetric and amperometric techniques in order to detect parabens from aqueous solutions. The occurrence into environment as emerging pollutants of these preservative compounds has been extensively studied in the last decades, and consequently, a rapid and reliable method for their quantitative quantification is required. In this study, methylparaben (MP) and propylparaben (PP) were chosen as representatives for paraben class. The individual electrochemical detection of each paraben has been successfully performed. Their electrochemical oxidation occurred at the same potential value. Their simultaneous quantification should be assessed electrochemically only as general index of paraben class as a cumulative signal corresponding to both MP and PP from solution. The influence of pH on the electrochemical signal was studied. pH ranged between 1.3 and 9.0 allowed shifting the detection potential value to smaller value, which is very desired for the electroanalysis. Also, the signal is better-defined and higher sensitivity is achieved. Differential-pulsed voltammetry and square-wave voltammetry were exploited under the optimum pH conditions to improve the electroanalytical performance for the paraben detection. Also, the operation conditions were selected, i.e., the step potential, modulation amplitude and the frequency. Chronomaprometry application as the easiest electrochemical detection method led to worse sensitivity, probably due to a possible fouling effect of the electrode surface. The best electroanalytical performance was achieved by pulsed voltammetric technique but the selection of the electrochemical technique is related to the concrete practical application. A good reproducibility of the voltammetric-based method using carbon nanofiber-epoxy composite electrode was determined and no interference effect was found for the cation and anion species that are common in the water matrix. Besides these characteristics, the long life-time of the electrode give to carbon nanofiber-epoxy composite electrode a great potential for practical applications.

Keywords: carbon nanofiber-epoxy composite electrode, electroanalysis, methylparaben, propylparaben

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Authors: Odai Ibrahim Mohammed Al Balasmeh, Tapas Karmaker, Richa Babbar

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In this study, the reservoir capacity and sediment deposition were estimated using remote sensing data. The satellite images were synchronized with water level and storage capacity to find out the change in sediment deposition due to soil erosion and transport by streamflow. The water bodies spread area was estimated using vegetation indices, e.g., normalize differences vegetation index (NDVI) and normalize differences water index (NDWI). The 3D reservoir bathymetry was modeled by integrated water level, storage capacity, and area. From the models of different time span, the change in reservoir storage capacity was estimated. Another reservoir with known water level, storage capacity, area, and sediment deposition was used to validate the estimation technique. The t-test was used to assess the results between observed and estimated reservoir capacity and sediment deposition.

Keywords: satellite data, normalize differences vegetation index, NDVI, normalize differences water index, NDWI, reservoir capacity, sedimentation, t-test hypothesis

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Authors: A.Radzevičius, P. Viškelis, J. Viškelis, R. Karklelienė, D. Juškevičienė

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Tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill.) hybrid 'Brooklyn' was investigated at the LRCAF Institute of Horticulture. For investigation, five green tomatoes, which were grown on vine, were selected. Color measurements were made in the greenhouse with the same selected tomato fruits (fruits were not harvested and were growing and ripening on tomato vine through all experiment) in every two days while tomatoes fruits became fully ripen. Study showed that color index L has tendency to decline and established determination coefficient (R2) was 0.9504. Also, hue angle has tendency to decline during tomato fruit ripening on vine and it’s coefficient of determination (R2) reached–0.9739. Opposite tendency was determined with color index a, which has tendency to increase during tomato ripening and that was expressed by polynomial trendline where coefficient of determination (R2) reached–0.9592.

Keywords: color, color index, ripening, tomato

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Authors: Mohammed Khalid Mahmood, Delphine Tardivo, Romain Lan

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Dental caries is one of the most common diseases in the world, affecting billions of people and significantly lowering the quality of life. Malnutrition, on the other hand, is defined as inadequate, imbalanced, or excessive consumption of macronutrients, micronutrients, or both, which is characterized as an abnormal physiological condition. Oral health is impacted by malnutrition, and malnutrition can result from poor oral health. The objective of this paper was to study the association of serum Vitamin D level and body mass index as representatives of malnutrition at micro and macro levels, respectively, on dental caries. Results showed that: 1. The majority of the population studied (70%) are Vitamin D deficient. 2. Having a normal and even a sufficient level of serum Vitamin D and having a normal body mass index increase the chances of children being caries-free and having a lower caries index.

Keywords: children, dental Caries, malnutrition, vitamin D

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Authors: Davoud Khodadadi Dehkordi

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This research was planned in order to study the effect of drought stress and different levels of Superabsorbent and their effect on grain yield, biologic yield and harvest index. In this study, 3 different depths of irrigation were considered as the main treatment I1, I2, I3 as 100, 75 and 50 percent of water requirement of plants respectively and different levels of Superabsorbent were used as secondary treatment (S0, S1, S2 and S3, equal to 0 (control), 15, 30 and 45 gr/m2 respectively). According to the results, independent effects of irrigation and Superabsorbent treatments at 1% level on biologic and grain yield of corn were significant. In addition, independent effect of irrigation treatments at 5% level on harvest index was significant. But independent effect of Superabsorbent treatments on harvest index was not significant.

Keywords: corn, deficit irrigation, superabsorbent, yield

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Authors: Nada Souissi, Mourad Mroua

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The main purpose of this study is to examine the interaction between financial asset volatility, economic factors and investor's behavioral indicators related to both the company's and the markets stocks for the period from January 2000 to January2020. Using multiple linear regression and Bayesian Networks modeling, results show a positive and negative relationship between investor's psychology index, economic factors and predicted stock market return. We reveal that the application of the Bayesian Discrete Network contributes to identify the different cause and effect relationships between all economic, financial variables and psychology index.

Keywords: Financial asset return predictability, Economic factors, Investor's psychology index, Bayesian approach, Probabilistic networks, Parametric learning

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Authors: Jui-Chen Huang

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The purpose of this study is to explore the effects of telecare on preventing and delaying the quality of disability care in elderly people with portable comfort Bluetooth brainwave devices with remote healthcare functions. Through the teaching videos and remotely teaching the elderly, which had ever learned the care courses of the prevent and delay disability, these elderly did muscle strength training. Then this paper explores the effect of training with the data by SPSS 18.0 statistical software. The data is collected with pre-test, post-test and analyze data from the measure of the Bluetooth brain wave equipment including the pressure index, relaxation index, attention and fatigue index of the elderly. In this study, 30 elderly people who had taken preventive and delayed disability care courses were studied to explore the effect of their care quality improvement. The results showed that the pressure index, relaxation index, attention, and fatigue index of the elderly had statistically significant differences in two months. It can be seen that elderly people who have been treated to prevent and delay disability care courses can significantly improve their care quality if they continue to receive intensive training to prevent and delay disability through remote mode. This telecare is applied to the elderly program that has been used to prevent and delay disability care courses. It is worth continuing to promote, and it is recommended that follow-up studies be conducted in a longer-term manner to explore long-term benefits. It can solve the current insufficiency of long-term care resources, but the demand is urgent.

Keywords: telecare, bluetooth brainwave equipment, prevention and delay of disability, the elderly, care quality

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Authors: Guy Rubin, Ravit Shay, Nimrod Rozen

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The accuracy of a diagnostic test used to classify a patient as having disease or being disease-free is a valuable piece of information to be used by the physician when making treatment decisions. Finger laceration, suspected to have nerve injury is a challenging decision for the treating surgeon. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of six clinical tests in the diagnosis of digital nerve injury. The six clinical tests included light touch, pin prick, static and dynamic 2-point discrimination, Semmes Weinstein monofilament and wrinkle test. Data comparing pre-surgery examination with post-surgery results of 42 patients with 52 digital nerve injury was evaluated. The subjective examinations, light touch, pin prick, static and dynamic 2-point discrimination and Semmes-Weinstein monofilament were not sensitive (57.6, 69.7, 42.4, 40 and 66.8% respectively) and specific (36.8, 36.8, 47.4, 42.1 and 31.6% respectively). Wrinkle test, the only objective examination, was the most sensitive (78.1%) and specific (55.6%). This result gives no pre-operative examination the ability to predict the result of explorative surgery.

Keywords: digital nerve, injury, nerve examination, Semmes-Weinstein monofilamen, sensitivity, specificity, two point discrimination, wrinkle test

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Authors: M. Malekian, M. E. Heydari, M. Irani Estyar

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Human papillomavirus (HPV) is one of the most common sexually transmitted infection, which may lead to cervical cancer as the main cause of it. With early diagnosis and treatment in health care services, cervical cancer and its complications are considered to be preventable. This study was aimed to compare the efficiency, sensitivity, and specificity of Pap smear and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in detecting HPV. A literature search was performed in Google Scholar, PubMed and SID databases using the keywords 'human papillomavirus', 'pap smear' and 'polymerase change reaction' to identify studies comparing Pap smear and PCR methods for the detection. No restrictions were considered.10 studies were included in this review. All samples that were positive by pop smear were also positive by PCR. However, there were positive samples detected by PCR which was negative by pop smear and in all studies, many positive samples were missed by pop smear technique. Although The Pap smear had high specificity, PCR based HPV detection was more sensitive method and had the highest sensitivity. In order to promote the quality of detection and high achievement of the maximum results, PCR diagnostic methods in addition to the Pap smear are needed and Pap smear method should be combined with PCR techniques according to the high error rate of Pap smear in detection.

Keywords: human papillomavirus, cervical cancer, pap smear, polymerase chain reaction

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Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

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A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

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Authors: Ashenafi Sileshi Etefa, Bezawit Worku Yenealem

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Micro-insurance is a relatively new concept that is just being introduced in Ethiopia. For an agrarian economy dominated by small holder farming and vulnerable to natural disasters, mainly drought, the need for an Index-Based Micro Insurance (IBMI) is crucial. Since IBMI solves moral hazard, adverse selection, and access issues to poor clients, it is preferable over traditional insurance products. IBMI is being piloted in drought prone areas of Ethiopia with the aim of learning and expanding the service across the country. This article analyses the demand of IBMI and the barriers to demand and finds that the demand for IBMI has so far been constrained by lack of awareness, trust issues, costliness, and the level of basis risk; and recommends reducing the basis risk and increasing the role of government and farmer cooperatives.

Keywords: agriculture, index based micro-insurance (IBMI), drought, micro-finance institution (MFI)

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Authors: Ali Kassem

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Background: In the last few years, factors such as insulin resistance (IR) and hepatic steatosis have been linked to progression of hepatic fibrosis.Patients with chronic liver disease, and cirrhosis in particular, are known to be prone to IR. However, chronic HCV (hepatitis C) infection may induce IR, regardless of the presence of liver cirrhosis. Our aims are to study insulin resistance (IR) assessed by HOMA-IR (Homeostatic Model Assessment Insulin Resistance) as a possible risk factor in disease progression in cirrhotic patients and to evaluate the role of IR in hepatic fibrosis progression. The correlations of HOMA-IR values to laboratory, virological and histopathological parameters of chronic HCV are also examined. Methods: The study included 50 people divided into 30 adult chronic hepatitis C patients diagnosed by PCR (polymerase chain reaction) within previous 6 months and 20 healthy controls. The functional and morphological status of the liver were evaluated by ultrasonography and laboratory investigations including liver function tests and by liver biopsy. Fasting blood glucose and fasting insulin levels were measured and body mass index and insulin resistance were calculated. Patients having HOMA-IR >2.5 were labeled as insulin resistant. Results: Chronic hepatitis C patients with IR showed significantly higher mean values of BMI (body mass index) and fasting insulin than those without IR (P < 0.000). Patients with IR were more likely to have steatosis (p = 0.006), higher necroinflammatory activity (p = 0.05). No significant differences were found between the two groups regarding hepatic fibrosis. Conclusion: HOMA-IR measurement could represent a novel marker to identify the cirrhotic patients at greater risk for the progression of liver disease. As IR is a potentially modifiable risk factor, these findings may have important prognostic and therapeutic implications. Assessment of IR by HOMA-IR and improving insulin sensitivity are recommended in patients with HCV and related chronic liver disease.

Keywords: hepatic fibrosis, hepatitis C virus infection, hepatic steatosis, insulin resistance

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Authors: Davood Shishebori, Mohammad Saber Fallah Nezhad, Sina Seifi

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In this paper, a variable multiple dependent state (MDS) sampling plan is developed based on the process capability index using Bayesian approach. The optimal parameters of the developed sampling plan with respect to constraints related to the risk of consumer and producer are presented. Two comparison studies have been done. First, the methods of double sampling model, sampling plan for resubmitted lots and repetitive group sampling (RGS) plan are elaborated and average sample numbers of the developed MDS plan and other classical methods are compared. A comparison study between the developed MDS plan based on Bayesian approach and the exact probability distribution is carried out.

Keywords: MDS sampling plan, RGS plan, sampling plan for resubmitted lots, process capability index (PCI), average sample number (ASN), Bayesian approach

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Authors: Michael Scott Evans, Andrew Smith

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The feeling of fatigue at work could potentially have devastating consequences. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the well-established objective indicator of fatigue – the Fatigue Risk Index (FRI) calculator used by the rail industry is an effective indicator to the number of safety incidents, in which fatigue could have been a contributing factor. The study received ethics approval from Cardiff University’s Ethics Committee (EC.16.06.14.4547). A total of 901 safety incidents were recorded from a single British rail franchise between 1st June 2010 – 31st December 2016, into the Safety Management Information System (SMIS). The safety incident types identified that fatigue could have been a contributing factor were: Signal Passed at Danger (SPAD), Train Protection & Warning System (TPWS) activation, Automatic Warning System (AWS) slow to cancel, failed to call, and station overrun. From the 901 recorded safety incidents, the scheduling system CrewPlan was used to extract the Fatigue Index (FI) score and Risk Index (RI) score of all train drivers on the day of the safety incident. Only the working rosters of 64.2% (N = 578) (550 men and 28 female) ranging in age from 24 – 65 years old (M = 47.13, SD = 7.30) were accessible for analyses. Analysis from all 578 train drivers who were involved in safety incidents revealed that 99.8% (N = 577) of Fatigue Index (FI) scores fell within or below the identified guideline threshold of 45 as well as 97.9% (N = 566) of Risk Index (RI) scores falling below the 1.6 threshold range. Their scores represent good practice within the rail industry. These findings seem to indicate that the current objective indicator, i.e. the FRI calculator used in this study by the British rail franchise was not an effective predictor of train driver’s FI scores and RI scores, as safety incidents in which fatigue could have been a contributing factor represented only 0.2% of FI scores and 2.1% of RI scores. Further research is needed to determine whether there are other contributing factors that could provide a better indication as to why there is such a significantly large proportion of train drivers who are involved in safety incidents, in which fatigue could have been a contributing factor have such low FI and RI scores.

Keywords: fatigue risk index calculator, objective indicator of fatigue, rail industry, safety incident

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Authors: Binh T. T. Nguyen, Zhenyu Li, Eric Yap, Yi Zhang, Ai-Qun Liu

Abstract:

Silicon-photonic-sensor system is an emerging class of analytical technologies that use evanescent field wave to sensitively measure the slight difference in the surrounding environment. The wavelength shift induced by local refractive index change is used as an indicator in the system. These devices can be served as sensors for a wide variety of chemical or biomolecular detection in clinical and environmental fields. In our study, a system including a silicon-based micro-ring resonator, microfluidic channel, and optical processing is designed, fabricated for biomolecule detection. The system is demonstrated to detect Clostridium botulinum type A neurotoxin (BoNT) in different water sources. BoNT is one of the most toxic substances known and relatively easily obtained from a cultured bacteria source. The toxin is extremely lethal with LD50 of about 0.1µg/70kg intravenously, 1µg/ 70 kg by inhalation, and 70µg/kg orally. These factors make botulinum neurotoxins primary candidates as bioterrorism or biothreat agents. It is required to have a sensing system which can detect BoNT in a short time, high sensitive and automatic. For BoNT detection, silicon-based micro-ring resonator is modified with a linker for the immobilization of the anti-botulinum capture antibody. The enzymatic reaction is employed to increase the signal hence gains sensitivity. As a result, a detection limit to 30 pg/mL is achieved by our silicon-photonic sensor within a short period of 80 min. The sensor also shows high specificity versus the other type of botulinum. In the future, by designing the multifunctional waveguide array with fully automatic control system, it is simple to simultaneously detect multi-biomaterials at a low concentration within a short period. The system has a great potential to apply for online, real-time and high sensitivity for the label-free bimolecular rapid detection.

Keywords: biotoxin, photonic, ring resonator, sensor

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Authors: Syeda Salina Aziz, Tanvir Ahmed Mozumder

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Citizenship is an important concept of democracy which broadly defines the relationship between the state and its citizens; at the same time, it analyzes the rights and duties of a citizen. The universal citizenship principle demands that citizens should be aware of the political system, possess democratic attitudes, and join the political activity. Bangladesh presents an interesting case for democracy; the democratic practices in the country have been long introduced, have been interrupted several times, and the democratic values and practices have yet to be established in the country. These transitions have influenced citizens’ ideologies and participation in decision-making and also shaped their expectations differently. In this backdrop, this paper aims to understand and explain the citizenship behavior of Bangladeshi nationals. Based on nationally representative household survey data of 4000 respondents, this paper creates a composite citizenship index which is a combination of three separate indices, including participation index, knowledge and awareness index, and ideology index. The paper then tries to explain the factors that affect the citizenship index. Using fixed effect regression analysis, the paper intends to explore the association between citizenship and socio-demographic variables, including education, location, gender, and exposure to the media of respondents. Additionally, using national election polls, the paper creates a variable to measure long-term support towards the current ruling party and tests whether and how this affects the citizenship variables.

Keywords: citizenship, political participation, Bangladesh, stronghold

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Authors: Oludamilare Bode Adewuyi, Yanxia Sun, Isaiah Gbadegesin Adebayo

Abstract:

Voltage stability analysis is crucial to the reliable and economic operation of power systems. The power system of developing nations is more susceptible to failures due to the continuously increasing load demand, which is not matched with generation increase and efficient transmission infrastructures. Thus, most power systems are heavily stressed, and the planning of extra generation from distributed generation sources needs to be efficiently done so as to ensure the security of the power system. Some voltage stability index-based approach for DG siting has been reported in the literature. However, most of the existing voltage stability indices, though sufficient, are found to be inaccurate, especially for overloaded power systems. In this paper, the performance of a relatively different approach using a line voltage stability margin indicator, which has proven to have better accuracy, has been presented and compared with a conventional line voltage stability index for DG siting using the Nigerian 28 bus system. Critical boundary index (CBI) for voltage stability margin estimation was deployed to identify suitable locations for DG placement, and the performance was compared with DG placement using the Novel Line Stability Index (NLSI) approach. From the simulation results, both CBI and NLSI agreed greatly on suitable locations for DG on the test system; while CBI identified bus 18 as the most suitable at system overload, NLSI identified bus 8 to be the most suitable. Considering the effect of the DG placement at the selected buses on the voltage magnitude profile, the result shows that the DG placed on bus 18 identified by CBI improved the performance of the power system better.

Keywords: voltage stability analysis, voltage collapse, voltage stability index, distributed generation

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Authors: Moon Jung Kim, Guil Rhim

Abstract:

The clinical sensitivity of the “VEUPLEXTM TBI assay”, a clinical trial medical device, in mild traumatic brain injury was 28.6% (95% CI, 19.7%-37.5%), and the clinical specificity was 94.0% (95% CI, 89.3%). -98.7%). In addition, when the results analyzed by marker were put together, the sensitivity was higher when interpreting the two tests together than the two tests, UCHL1 and GFAP alone. Additionally, when sensitivity and specificity were analyzed based on CT results for the mild traumatic brain injury patient group, the clinical sensitivity for 2 CT-positive cases was 50.0% (95% CI: 1.3%-98.7%), and 19 CT-negative cases. The clinical specificity for cases was 68.4% (95% CI: 43.5% - 87.4%). Since the low clinical sensitivity for the two CT-positive cases was not statistically significant due to the small number of samples analyzed, it was judged necessary to secure and analyze more samples in the future. Regarding the clinical specificity analysis results for 19 CT-negative cases, there were a large number of patients who were actually clinically diagnosed with mild traumatic brain injury but actually received a CT-negative result, and about 31.6% of them showed abnormal results on VEUPLEXTM TBI assay. Although traumatic brain injury could not be detected in 31.6% of the CT scans, the possibility of actually suffering a mild brain injury could not be ruled out, so it was judged that this could be confirmed through follow-up observation of the patient. In addition, among patients with mild traumatic brain injury, CT examinations were not performed in many cases because the symptoms were very mild, but among these patients, about 25% or more showed abnormal results in the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay. In fact, no damage is observed with the naked eye immediately after traumatic brain injury, and traumatic brain injury is not observed even on CT. But in some cases, brain hemorrhage may occur (delayed cerebral hemorrhage) after a certain period of time, so the patients who did show abnormal results on VEUPLEXTM TBI assay should be followed up for the delayed cerebral hemorrhage. In conclusion, it was judged that it was difficult to judge mild traumatic brain injury with the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay only through clinical findings without CT results, that is, based on the GCS value. Even in the case of CT, it does not detect all mild traumatic brain injury, so it is difficult to necessarily judge that there is no traumatic brain injury, even if there is no evidence of traumatic brain injury in CT. And in the long term, more patients should be included to evaluate the usefulness of the VEUPLEXTM TBI assay in the detection of microscopic traumatic brain injuries without using CT.

Keywords: brain injury, traumatic brain injury, GFAP, UCHL1

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Authors: Claudia Seabra, Elisabeth Kastenholz, José Luís Abrantes, Manuel Reis

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In a world of increasing mobility and global risks, terrorism has, in a perverse way, capitalized on contemporaneous society’s growing interest in travel to explore a world whose national boundaries and distances have decreased. Terrorists have identified the modern tourist flows originated from the economically more developed countries as new appealing targets so as to: i) call attention to the causes they defend and ii) destroy a country’s foundations of tourism, with the final aim of disrupting the economic and consequently social fabric of the affected countries. The present study analyses sensitivity towards risk and travel behaviors in international travel amongst a sample of 600 international tourists from 49 countries travelling by air. Specifically, the sample was segmented according to the Global Peace Index. This index defines country profiles regarding the levels of peace. The indicators used are established over three broad themes: i) ongoing domestic and international conflict; ii) societal safety and security; and iii) militarisation. Tourists were segmented, according to their country of origin, in different levels of peacefulness. Several facets of travel behavior were evaluated, namely motivations, attitude towards trip planning, quality perception and perceived value of the trip. Also factors related with risk perception were evaluated, specifically terrorism risk perception during the trip, unsafety sensation as well as importance attributed to safety in travel. Results contribute to our understanding of the role of previous exposure to the lack of peace and safety at home in the international tourists behaviors, which is further discussed in terms of tourism management and marketing implications which should particularly interest tourism services and destinations more affected by terrorism, war, political turmoil, crime and other safety risks.

Keywords: terrorism, tourism, safety, risk perception

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