Search results for: scenario analysis

Authors: Prachi Bhatt

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Motivated workforce is an important asset of an organisation. Intrinsic motivation is one of the key aspects of people operations and performance. Researches have emphasized the significance of internal factors in individuals’ motivation. In the changing business scenario, it is a challenge for the organizations’ leaders to inspire and motivate their workforce. The present study deals with the intrinsic motivation potential of an individual which govern the innate capability of an individual driving him or her to behave or perform in the changing work environment, tasks, teams. Differences at individual level significantly influence differences in levels of motivation. In the above context, the present research attempts to explore behavioral trait dimensions which influence motivational potential of an individual. The present research emphasizes the significance of intrinsic motivational potential and the significance of exploring the differences in the intrinsic motivational potential levels of individuals at work places. Thus, this paper empirically tests the framework of behavioral traits which affects motivational potential of an individual. With the help of two studies i.e., Study 1 and Study 2, exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis, respectively, indicated a reliable measure assessing intrinsic motivational potential of an individual. Given the variety of challenges of motivating contemporary workforce, and with increasing importance of intrinsic motivation, the paper discusses the relevance of the findings and of the measure assessing intrinsic motivational potential. Assessment of such behavioral traits would assist in the effective realization of intrinsic motivational potential of individuals. Additionally, the paper discusses the practical implications and furnishes scope for future research.

Keywords: behavioral traits, individual differences, intrinsic motivational potential, intrinsic motivation, motivation, workplace motivation

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Authors: Chidiebere C. Agoha, Armstong C. Awuzie, Chukwuebuka N. Onwubuariri, Joy O. Njoku

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Spatial analysis is a field of study that utilizes geographic or spatial information to understand and analyze patterns, relationships, and trends in data. It is characterized by the use of geographic or spatial information, which allows for the analysis of data in the context of its location and surroundings. It is different from non-spatial or aspatial techniques, which do not consider the geographic context and may not provide as complete of an understanding of the data. Spatial analysis is applied in a variety of fields, which includes urban planning, environmental science, geosciences, epidemiology, marketing, to gain insights and make decisions about complex spatial problems. This review paper explores definitions of spatial analysis from various sources, including examples of its application and different analysis techniques such as Buffer analysis, interpolation, and Kernel density analysis (multi-distance spatial cluster analysis). It also contrasts spatial analysis with non-spatial analysis.

Keywords: aspatial technique, buffer analysis, epidemiology, interpolation

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Authors: Mehdi Boukri, Mohammed Naboussi Farsi, Mounir Naili, Omar Amellal, Mohamed Belazougui, Ahmed Mebarki, Nabila Guessoum, Brahim Mezazigh, Mounir Ait-Belkacem, Nacim Yousfi, Mohamed Bouaoud, Ikram Boukal, Aboubakr Fettar, Asma Souki

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The seismic risk to which the urban centres are more and more exposed became a world concern. A co-operation on an international scale is necessary for an exchange of information and experiments for the prevention and the installation of action plans in the countries prone to this phenomenon. For that, the 1990s was designated as 'International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR)' by the United Nations, whose interest was to promote the capacity to resist the various natural, industrial and environmental disasters. Within this framework, it was launched in 1996, the RADIUS project (Risk Assessment Tools for Diagnosis of Urban Areas Against Seismic Disaster), whose the main objective is to mitigate seismic risk in developing countries, through the development of a simple and fast methodological and operational approach, allowing to evaluate the vulnerability as well as the socio-economic losses, by probable earthquake scenarios in the exposed urban areas. In this paper, we will present the adaptation and application of this methodology to the Algerian context for the seismic risk evaluation in urban areas potentially exposed to earthquakes. This application consists to perform an earthquake scenario in the urban centre of Constantine city, located at the North-East of Algeria, which will allow the building seismic damage estimation of this city. For that, an inventory of 30706 building units was carried out by the National Earthquake Engineering Research Centre (CGS). These buildings were digitized in a data base which comprises their technical information by using a Geographical Information system (GIS), and then they were classified according to the RADIUS methodology. The study area was subdivided into 228 meshes of 500m on side and Ten (10) sectors of which each one contains a group of meshes. The results of this earthquake scenario highlights that the ratio of likely damage is about 23%. This severe damage results from the high concentration of old buildings and unfavourable soil conditions. This simulation of the probable seismic damage of the building and the GIS damage maps generated provide a predictive evaluation of the damage which can occur by a potential earthquake near to Constantine city. These theoretical forecasts are important for decision makers in order to take the adequate preventive measures and to develop suitable strategies, prevention and emergency management plans to reduce these losses. They can also help to take the adequate emergency measures in the most impacted areas in the early hours and days after an earthquake occurrence.

Keywords: seismic risk, mitigation, RADIUS, urban areas, Algeria, earthquake scenario, Constantine

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Authors: A. Hol

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21^st century brought waves of business and industry eTransformations. The impact of change is also being seen in education. To identify the extent of this, scenario analysis methodology was utilised with the aim to assess business transformations across industry sectors ranging from craftsmanship, medicine, finance and manufacture to innovations and adoptions of new technologies and business models. Firstly, scenarios were drafted based on the current eTransformation models and its dimensions. Following this, eTransformation framework was utilised with the aim to derive the key eTransformation parameters, the essential characteristics that have enabled eTransformations across the sectors. Following this, identified key parameters were mapped to the transforming domain-education. The mapping assisted in deriving a cognitive eTransformation framework for education sector. The framework highlights the importance of context and the notion that education today needs not only to deliver content to students but it also needs to be able to meet the dynamically changing demands of specific student and industry groups. Furthermore, it pinpoints that for such processes to be supported, specific technology is required, so that instant, on demand and periodic feedback as well as flexible, dynamically expanding study content can be sought and received via multiple education mediums.

Keywords: education sector, business transformation, eTransformation model, cognitive model, cognitive systems, eTransformation

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Authors: A. Kumar, V. Devadas

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India has the most year-round favorable sunny conditions along with the second-highest solar irradiation in the world, the country holds the potential to become the global solar hub. The solar and wind-based generation capacity has skyrocketed in India with the successful effort of the Ministry of Renewable Energy, whereas the potential of rooftop based solar power generation has yet to be explored for proposed solar cities in India. The research aims to analyze the gap in the energy scenario in Jodhpur City and proposes interventions of solar energy generation systems as a catalyst for urban development. The research is based on the system concept which deals with simulation between the city system as a whole and its interactions between different subsystems. A system-dynamics based mathematical model is developed by identifying the control parameters using regression and correlation analysis to assess the gap in energy sector. The base model validation is done using the past 10 years timeline data collected from secondary sources. Further, energy consumption and solar energy generation-based projection are made for testing different scenarios to conclude the feasibility for maintaining the city level energy independence till 2031.

Keywords: city, consumption, energy, generation

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Authors: Sandra Cuenca, Steven Chango, Fabian Chamba, Alexandra Vaca

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This project addresses a representation of a virtual environment based on the analysis of the RSRP (Reference Signal Received Power) obtained by the Network Cell Info Lite application at the Escuela Superior Politécnica de Chimborazo (ESPOCH) considering the open areas of the Business Administration Department in the 4G LTE Frequency (band 2) of Claro Telephony at a frequency of 1967. 5 MHz, where measurements were performed from 17:00 UTC-05:00. The indicators required for the simulation of the environment designed in sketchup were focused especially on the power levels obtained where it was possible to represent the scenario with real power values obtained in each concentric radius of a total of 3 campaigns of 200 samples each, where the values vary between 84.6 dBm to 115.5 dBm having average power values for each of the 23 radiuses which are introduced in a virtual environment, allowing users to immerse themselves in it, where they can explore 3D virtual environments, generating a color scale from 0 to 10 with red being the weakest signal and green the signal with the best intensity.

Keywords: virtualization, LTE, radios, power intensity levels colors, mobile signal reception power

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Authors: Moustafa Osman

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Modeling of air pollutants from the accidental release is performed for quantifying the impact of industrial facilities into the ambient air. The mathematical methods are requiring for the prediction of the accidental scenario in probability of failure-safe mode and analysis consequences to quantify the environmental damage upon human health. The initial statement of mitigation plan is supporting implementation during production and maintenance periods. In a number of mathematical methods, the flow rate at which gaseous and liquid pollutants might be accidentally released is determined from various types in term of point, line and area sources. These emissions are integrated meteorological conditions in simplified stability parameters to compare dispersion coefficients from non-continuous air pollution plumes. The differences are reflected in concentrations levels and greenhouse effect to transport the parcel load in both urban and rural areas. This research reveals that the elevation effect nearby buildings with other structure is higher 5 times more than open terrains. These results are agreed with Sutton suggestion for dispersion coefficients in different stability classes.

Keywords: air pollutants, dispersion modeling, GIS, health effect, urban planning

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Authors: Kelly Danielly Da Silva Alcantara, Daniel Fernando Molina Junqueira, Graziella Colato Antonio

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The Law No. 12,305/10, established by the National Solid Waste Policy (PNRS), provides major changes in the management and managing scenario of solid waste in Brazil. The PNRS established since changes from population behavior as environmental and the consciousness and commitment of the companies with the waste produced. The objective of this project is to conduct a benchmarking study of the management models of Waste Management Municipal Solid (MSW) in national and international levels emphasizing especially in the European Union (Portugal, France and Germany), which are reference countries in energy development, sustainability and consequently recovery of waste generated. The management that encompasses all stages that are included in this sector will be analyzed by benchmarking, as the collection, transportation, processing/treatment and final disposal of waste. Considering the needs to produce clean energy in Brazil, this study will allow the determination to the best treatment of the waste in order to reduce the amount of waste and increase the lifetime of the landfill. Finally, it intends to identify the energy recovery potential through a study analysis of economic viability, energy and sustainable based on a holistic approach.

Keywords: benchmarking, energy recovery, landfill, municipal solid waste

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Authors: Asmita A. Vaidya, Shahista S. Inamdar

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Society is dynamic, in this changing and development processes, Indian Muslim women where no exception to this social change. Islam has elevated her status from being chattels/commodity to individual human being having separate legal personality and equal to that of men but in India, even two women are not equal in availing their matrimonial rights and remedies, separate personal laws are applicable to them and thus gender justice is a fragile myth.

Keywords: Muslim women, gender justice, polygamy, Islamic jurisprudence, equality

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Authors: Malay K. Pramanik

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In recent years, climate change has become a major threat and has been widely documented in the geographic distribution of many plant species. However, the impacts of climate change on the distribution of ecologically vulnerable medicinal species remain largely unknown. The identification of a suitable habitat for a species under climate change scenario is a significant step towards the mitigation of biodiversity decline. The study, therefore, aims to predict the impact of current, and future climatic scenarios on the distribution of the threatened Garcinia indica across the northern Western Ghats using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling. The future projections were made for the year 2050 and 2070 with all Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) using 56 species occurrence data, and 19 bioclimatic predictors from the BCC-CSM1.1 model of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change’s (IPCC) 5th assessment. The bioclimatic variables were minimised to a smaller number of variables after a multicollinearity test, and their contributions were assessed using jackknife test. The AUC value of 0.956 ± 0.023 indicates that the model performs with excellent accuracy. The study identified that temperature seasonality (39.5 ± 3.1%), isothermality (19.2 ± 1.6%), and annual precipitation (12.7 ± 1.7%) would be the major influencing variables in the current and future distribution. The model predicted 10.5% (19318.7 sq. km) of the study area as moderately to very highly suitable, while 82.60% (151904 sq. km) of the study area was identified as ‘unsuitable’ or ‘very low suitable’. Our predictions of climate change impact on habitat suitability suggest that there will be a drastic reduction in the suitability by 5.29% and 5.69% under RCP 8.5 for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Finally, the results signify that the model might be an effective tool for biodiversity protection, ecosystem management, and species re-habitation planning under future climate change scenarios.

Keywords: Garcinia Indica, maximum entropy modelling, climate change, MaxEnt, Western Ghats, medicinal plants

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Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Mariam Lafkihi, Eric Ballot

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Efficient city logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modeling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore it investigates how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Generalized Linear Model has been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include the analysis of the regression’s accuracy, as well as the utilization of the regression’s results in freight distribution scenario elaboration and analysis for Supply Chain Management purposes.

Keywords: driving context, generalized linear model, kinetic behaviour, real world driving data

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Authors: Xuemei Jiang, Kunfu Zhu, Shouyang Wang

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In this paper, we selected China as a case and employ a time-series of unique input-output tables distinguishing firm ownership and processing exports, to evaluate the role of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) in China’s rapid carbon dioxide emission growth. The results suggested that FIEs contributed to 11.55% of the economic outputs’ growth in China between 1992-2010, but accounted for only 9.65% of the growth of carbon dioxide emissions. In relative term, until 2010 FIEs still emitted much less than Chinese-owned enterprises (COEs) when producing the same amount of outputs, although COEs experienced much faster technology upgrades. In an ideal scenario where we assume the final demands remain unchanged and COEs completely mirror the advanced technologies of FIEs, more than 2000 Mt of carbon dioxide emissions would be reduced for China in 2010. From a policy perspective, the widespread FIEs are very effective and efficient channel to encourage technology transfer from developed to developing countries.

Keywords: carbon dioxide emissions, foreign-invested enterprises, technology transfer, input–output analysis, China

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Authors: Leszek Chybowski, Artur Bejger, Katarzyna Gawdzińska

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Subversion analysis is a tool used in the TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving) methodology. This article introduces the history and describes the process of subversion analysis, as well as function analysis and analysis of the resources, used at the design stage when generating possible undesirable situations. The article charts the course of subversion analysis when applied to a fuel injection nozzle of a marine engine. The work describes the fuel injector nozzle as a technological system and presents principles of analysis for the causes of a cracked tip of the nozzle body. The system is modelled with functional analysis. A search for potential causes of the damage is undertaken and a cause-and-effect analysis for various hypotheses concerning the damage is drawn up. The importance of particular hypotheses is evaluated and the most likely causes of damage identified.

Keywords: complex technical system, fuel injector, function analysis, importance analysis, resource analysis, sabotage analysis, subversion analysis, TRIZ (Theory of Inventive Problem Solving)

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Authors: D. Osborn, L. Easthope

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The increasing threat of ‘marauding terror,' utilising improvised explosive devices and firearms, has focused the attention of policy makers and emergency responders once again on the treatment of the critically injured patient in a highly volatile scenario. Whilst there have been significant improvements made in the response and lessons learned from recent disasters in the international disaster community there still remain areas of uncertainty and a lack of clarity in the care of the critically injured. This innovative, longitudinal study has at its heart the aim of using ethnographic methods to ‘slow down’ the journey such patients will take and make visible the ethical complexities that 2017 technologies, expectations and over a decade of improved combat medicine techniques have brought. The primary researcher, previously employed in the hospital emergency management environment, has closely followed responders as they managed casualties with life-threatening injuries. Ethnographic observation of Exercise Unified Response in March 2016, exposed the ethical and legal 'vacuums' within a mass casualty and fatality setting, specifically the extrication, treatment and care of critically injured patients from crushed and overturned train carriages. This article highlights a gap in the debate, evaluation, planning and response to an incident of this nature specifically the incapacitated, unidentified patients and the ethics of submitting them to the invasive ‘Disaster Victim Identification’ process. Using a qualitative ethnographic analysis, triangulating observation, interviews and documentation, this analysis explores the gaps and highlights the next stages in the researcher’s pathway as she continues to explore with emergency practitioners some of this century’s most difficult questions in relation to the medico-legal and ethical challenges faced by emergency services in the wake of new and emerging threats and medical treatment expectations.

Keywords: ethics, disaster, Disaster Victim Identification (DVI), legality, unidentified

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Authors: Marco Picco, Mahmood Alam

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Improving the energy performance of existing buildings can be challenging, particularly when facades cannot be modified, and the only available option is internal insulation. In such cases, the choice of the most suitable material becomes increasingly complex, as in addition to thermal transmittance and capital cost, the designer needs to account for the impact of the intervention on the internal spaces, and in particular the loss of usable space due to the additional layers of materials installed. This paper explores this issue by analysing a case study of an average office building needing to go through a refurbishment in order to reach the limits imposed by current regulations to achieve energy efficiency in buildings. The building is simulated through dynamic performance simulation under three different climate conditions in order to evaluate its energy needs. The use of Vacuum Insulated Panels as an option for energy refurbishment is compared to traditional insulation materials (XPS, Mineral Wool). For each scenario, energy consumptions are calculated and, in combination with their expected capital costs, used to perform a financial feasibility analysis. A holistic approach is proposed, taking into account the impact of the intervention on internal space by quantifying the value of the lost usable space and used in the financial feasibility analysis. The proposed approach highlights how taking into account different drivers will lead to the choice of different insulation materials, showing how accounting for the economic value of space can make VIPs an attractive solution for energy retrofitting under various climate conditions.

Keywords: vacuum insulated panels, building performance simulation, payback period, building energy retrofit

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Authors: Monika Rani, Claudio Marchesi, Stefania Federici, Laura E. Depero

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Degradation of the aquatic environment by plastic litter, especially microplastics (MPs), i.e., any water-insoluble solid plastic particle with the longest dimension in the range 1µm and 1000 µm (=1 mm) size, is an unfortunate indication of the advancement of the Anthropocene age on Earth. Microplastics formed due to natural weathering processes are termed as secondary microplastics, while when these are synthesized in industries, they are called primary microplastics. Their presence from the highest peaks to the deepest points in oceans explored and their resistance to biological and chemical decay has adversely affected the environment, especially marine life. Even though the presence of MPs in the marine environment is well-reported, a legitimate and authentic analytical technique to sample, analyze, and quantify the MPs is still under progress and testing stages. Among the characterization techniques, vibrational spectroscopic techniques are largely adopted in the field of polymers. And the ongoing miniaturization of these methods is on the way to revolutionize the plastic recycling industry. In this scenario, the capability and the feasibility of a miniaturized near-infrared (MicroNIR) spectroscopy combined with chemometrics tools for qualitative and quantitative analysis of urban plastic waste collected from a recycling plant and microplastic mixture fragmented in the lab were investigated. Based on the Resin Identification Code, 250 plastic samples were used for macroplastic analysis and to set up a library of polymers. Subsequently, MicroNIR spectra were analysed through the application of multivariate modelling. Principal Components Analysis (PCA) was used as an unsupervised tool to find trends within the data. After the exploratory PCA analysis, a supervised classification tool was applied in order to distinguish the different plastic classes, and a database containing the NIR spectra of polymers was made. For the microplastic analysis, the three most abundant polymers in the plastic litter, PE, PP, PS, were mechanically fragmented in the laboratory to micron size. The distinctive arrangement of blends of these three microplastics was prepared in line with a designed ternary composition plot. After the PCA exploratory analysis, a quantitative model Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) allowed to predict the percentage of microplastics in the mixtures. With a complete dataset of 63 compositions, PLS was calibrated with 42 data-points. The model was used to predict the composition of 21 unknown mixtures of the test set. The advantage of the consolidated NIR Chemometric approach lies in the quick evaluation of whether the sample is macro or micro, contaminated, coloured or not, and with no sample pre-treatment. The technique can be utilized with bigger example volumes and even considers an on-site evaluation and in this manner satisfies the need for a high-throughput strategy.

Keywords: chemometrics, microNIR, microplastics, urban plastic waste

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Authors: Mahshid Hatamzad, Geanette Polanco

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Improving the performance of Winter Road Maintenance (WRM) can increase the traffic safety and reduce the cost as well as environmental impacts. This study evaluates the efficiency of WRM technique, named salting, in the Arctic area by using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric linear method to measure the efficiencies of decision-making units (DMUs) based on handling multiple inputs and multiple outputs at the same time that their associated weights are not known. Here, roads are considered as DMUs for which the efficiency must be determined. The three input variables considered are traffic flow, road area and WRM cost. In addition, the two output variables included are level of safety in the roads and environment impacts resulted from WRM, which is also considered as an uncontrollable factor in the second scenario. The results show the performance of DMUs from the most efficient WRM to the inefficient/least efficient one and this information provides decision makers with technical support and the required suggested improvements for inefficient WRM, in order to achieve a cost-effective WRM and a safe road transportation during wintertime in the Arctic areas.

Keywords: environmental impacts, DEA, risk and safety, WRM

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Authors: Marulasiddappa H. B., Pushparajesh Viswanathan

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Day by day, the uses of internal combustion engines (ICE) are deteriorating because of pollution and less fuel availability. In the present scenario, the electric vehicle (EV) plays a major role in the place of an ICE vehicle. The performance of EVs can be improved by the proper selection of electric motors. Initially, EV preferred induction motors for traction purposes, but due to complexity in controlling induction motor, permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) is replacing induction motor in EV due to its advantages. Direct torque control (DTC) is one of the known techniques for PMSM drive in EV to control the torque and speed. However, the presence of torque ripple is the main drawback of this technique. Many control strategies are followed to reduce the torque ripples in PMSM. In this paper, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) controller technique is proposed to reduce torque ripples and settling time. Here the performance parameters like torque, speed and settling time are compared between conventional proportional-integral (PI) controller with ANFIS controller.

Keywords: direct torque control, electric vehicle, torque ripple, PMSM

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Authors: Elias Jemal Abdella

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The Blue Nile River is an important shared resource of Ethiopia, Sudan and also, because it is the major contributor of water to the main Nile River, Egypt. Despite the potential benefits of regional cooperation and integrated joint basin management, all three countries continue to pursue unilateral plans for development. Besides, there is great uncertainty about the likely impacts of climate change in water availability for existing as well as proposed irrigation and hydropower projects in the Blue Nile Basin. The main objective of this study is to quantitatively assess the impact of climate change on the hydrological regime of the upper Blue Nile basin, western Ethiopia. Three models were combined, a dynamic Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) regional climate model (RCM) that is used to determine climate projections for the Upper Blue Nile basin for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios for the period 2021-2050. The outputs generated from multimodel ensemble of four (4) CORDEX-RCMs (i.e., rainfall and temperature) were used as input to a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model which was setup, calibrated and validated with observed climate and hydrological data. The outputs from the SWAT model (i.e., projections in river flow) were used as input to a Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) water resources model which was used to determine the water resources implications of the changes in climate. The WEAP model was set-up to simulate three development scenarios. Current Development scenario was the existing water resource development situation, Medium-term Development scenario was planned water resource development that is expected to be commissioned (i.e. before 2025) and Long-term full Development scenario were all planned water resource development likely to be commissioned (i.e. before 2050). The projected change of mean annual temperature for period (2021 – 2050) in most of the basin are warmer than the baseline (1982 -2005) average in the range of 1 to 1.4oC, implying that an increase in evapotranspiration loss. Subbasins which already distressed from drought may endure to face even greater challenges in the future. Projected mean annual precipitation varies from subbasin to subbasin; in the Eastern, North Eastern and South western highland of the basin a likely increase of mean annual precipitation up to 7% whereas in the western lowland part of the basin mean annual precipitation projected to decrease by 3%. The water use simulation indicates that currently irrigation demand in the basin is 1.29 Bm3y-1 for 122,765 ha of irrigation area. By 2025, with new schemes being developed, irrigation demand is estimated to increase to 2.5 Bm3y-1 for 277,779 ha. By 2050, irrigation demand in the basin is estimated to increase to 3.4 Bm3y-1 for 372,779 ha. The hydropower generation simulation indicates that 98 % of hydroelectricity potential could be produced if all planned dams are constructed.

Keywords: Blue Nile River, climate change, hydropower, SWAT, WEAP

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Authors: K. Thakkar, C. Ghenai

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An integrated modeling approach was used in this study to (1) track energy consumption, production, and resource extraction, (2) track greenhouse gases emissions and (3) analyze emissions for local and regional air pollutions. The model was used in this study for short and long term energy and GHG emissions reduction analysis for the state of Florida. The integrated modeling methodology will help to evaluate the alternative energy scenarios and examine emissions-reduction strategies. The mitigation scenarios have been designed to describe the future energy strategies. They consist of various demand and supply side scenarios. One of the GHG mitigation scenarios is crafted by taking into account the available renewable resources potential for power generation in the state of Florida to compare and analyze the GHG reduction measure against ‘Business As Usual’ and ‘Florida State Policy’ scenario. Two more ‘integrated’ scenarios, (‘Electrification’ and ‘Efficiency and Lifestyle’) are crafted through combination of various mitigation scenarios to assess the cumulative impact of the reduction measures such as technological changes and energy efficiency and conservation.

Keywords: energy planning, climate change mitigation assessment, integrated modeling approach, energy alternatives, and GHG emission reductions

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Authors: May Ling González-Ruiz, Ana Cristina Solís-Solís

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Everyday more people can thrive towards the dream of pursuing a university diploma. This can be more attainable for some than for others who may face different types of limitations. Even though not all limitations come from within the individual but most of the times they come from without it may include the environment, the support of the person’s family, the school – its infrastructure, administrative procedures, and attitudes. This is a qualitative type of research that is developed through a case study. It is based on the experiences of two students who are visually impaired and who have attended a public university in Costa Rica. We enquire about the experiences of these two students in the English as a Foreign Language courses at the university scenario. An in-depth analysis of their lived experiences is presented. Their values, attitudes, and expectations serve as the guiding elements for this research. Findings are presented in light of the Social Justice Approach to inclusive education. Some of the most salient aspects found have to do with the attitudes the students used to face challenges; others point at those elements that may have hindered the learning experience of the persons observed and to those that encouraged them to continue their journey and successfully achieve a diploma.

Keywords: inclusion, case study, visually impaired student, learning experience, social justice approach

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Authors: Hitalo Silva

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The most famous corruption scandals in the past four years were taken in Latin America, especially in Brazil, but besides the stain that these countries suffered in an international field, there was a huge effort to create or modernize its national anti-corruption laws. Also, the countries are implementing new standards for investigations and corporate compliance programs, in order to combat corruption and prevent the money laundering. But here is the following question: is here an invisible uniformization/transnationalization of the anti-corruption systems in Latin America? This new scenario reflects the impacts of the corruption investigations conducted in Latin America countries, such as Car Wash Operation in Brazil, Pretelt Case in Colombia, Gasoducto Sur Peruano case and the Mr. Alex Kouri’s case both in Peru. Legal and institutional pro-transparency reforms were made recently, the companies are trying to implement new standards of conduct and investing in their compliance department. In this sense, there is a huge homogeneity in Latin America concerning the structuring of corporate compliance programs, a truly transnationalization not only of laws but also corporate standards among these countries. Although legislative initiatives vary among the countries, there is a tendency to impose rigid liability standards for the companies being investigated for corruption, not only the personal punishments of their executives, which demonstrate the power of authorities to strength the investigative tools. Also, instruments such as leniency agreements and plea bargain are essential to put a central role in enforcement activities in Latin America. In other words, in a region where six former Presidents were convicted for acts of corruption, and, companies such as Odebrecht that is accused of offering bribes to politicians from Argentina to México, passing through Ecuador, Colombia, Guatemala and Panama, this demonstrates the necessity to increase strength of their legal framework in a sense that unify transnational goals. All things considered, this paper will show how anti-corruption regulators are cooperating in Latin America jurisdictions in order to unify their laws and how the private sector is dealing with this new scenario of corporate culture change.

Keywords: compliance, corruption, investigations, Latin America, transnational

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Authors: Md. Alamgir Hossain, Md. Zakir Hossain, Md. Atiqur Rahman

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Tidal power can play a vital role in integrating as new source of renewable energy to the off-grid power connection in isolated areas, namely Sandwip, in Bangladesh. It can reduce the present energy crisis and improve the social, environmental and economic perspective of Bangladesh. Tidal energy is becoming popular around the world due to its own facilities. The development of any country largely depends on energy sector improvement. Lack of energy sector is because of hampering progress of any country development, and the energy sector will be stable by only depend on sustainable energy sources. Renewable energy having environmental friendly is the only sustainable solution of secure energy system. Bangladesh has a huge potential of tidal power at different locations, but effective measures on this issue have not been considered sincerely. This paper summarizes the current energy scenario, and Bangladesh can produce power approximately 53.19 MW across the country to reduce the growing energy demand utilizing tidal energy as well as it is shown that Sandwip is highly potential place to produce tidal power, which is estimated approximately 16.49 MW by investing only US $10.37 million. Besides this, cost management for tidal power plant has been also discussed.

Keywords: sustainable energy, tidal power, cost analysis, power demand, gas crisis

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Authors: A. C. Amaro de Faria Jr, A. M. Canone

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Considering a scenario where our universe is taken as a 3d domain wall embedded in a 5d dimensional Minkowski space-time, we explore the existence of a richer class of solitonic solutions and their consequences for accelerating universes driven by collisions of bulk particle excitations with the walls. In particular it is shown that some of these solutions should play a fundamental role at the beginning of the expansion process. We present some of these solutions in cosmological scenarios that can be applied to models that describe the inflationary period of the Universe.

Keywords: solitons, topological defects, branes, kinks, accelerating universes in brane scenarios

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Authors: Alexander Hedlund, Anna-Karin Stengard, Olof Björkqvist

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A step towards reducing greenhouse gases and energy consumption is to collaborate with the energy system between several industries. This work is based on a case study on integration of pulp and paper mills with a district heating system in Sundsvall, Sweden. Present research shows that it is possible to make a significant reduction in the electricity demand in the mechanical pulping process. However, the profitability of the efficiency measures could be an issue, as the excess steam recovered from the refiners decreases with the electricity consumption. A consequence will be that the fuel demand for steam production will increase. If the fuel price is similar to the electricity price it would reduce the profit of such a project. If the paper mill can be integrated with a district heating system, it is possible to upgrade excess heat from a nearby kraft pulp mill to process steam via the district heating system in order to avoid the additional fuel need. The concept is investigated by using a simulation model describing both the mass and energy balance as well as the operating margin. Three scenarios were analyzed: reference, electricity reduction and energy substitution. The simulation show that the total input to the system is lowest in the Energy substitution scenario. Additionally, in the Energy substitution scenario the steam from the incineration boiler covers not only the steam shortage but also a part of the steam produced using the biofuel boiler, the cooling tower connected to the incineration boiler is no longer needed and the excess heat can cover the whole district heating load during the whole year. The study shows a substantial economic advantage if all stakeholders act together as one system. However, costs and benefits are unequally shared between the actors. This means that there is a need for new business models in order to share the system costs and benefits.

Keywords: energy system, cooperation, simulation method, excess heat, district heating

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Authors: Domenico Carmelo Mongelli, Laura Carnieletto, Michele De Carli, Filippo Busato

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Starting from the current context in which the Russian invasion in Ukraine has highlighted Europe's dependence on natural gas imports for heating buildings, this study proposes solutions to resolve this dependency and evaluates related scenarios in the near future. In the first part of this work the methodologies and results of the economic impact are indicated by simulating a massive replacement of boilers powered by fossil fuels with electrically powered hightemperature air-water heat pumps for heating residential buildings in different European climates, without changing the current energy mix. For each individual European region, the costs for the purchase and installation of heat pumps for all residential buildings have been determined. Again for each individual European region, the economic savings during the operation phase that would be obtained in this future scenario of energy transition from fossil fuels to the electrification of domestic heating were calculated. For the European regions for which the economic savings were identified as positive, the payback times of the economic investments were analysed. In the second part of the work, hypothesizing different scenarios for a possible greater use of renewable energy sources and therefore with different possible future scenarios of the energy mix, the methodologies and results of the simulations on the economic analysis and on the environmental analysis are reported which have allowed us to evaluate the future effects of the energy transition from boilers to heat pumps for each European region. In the third part, assuming a rapid short-term diffusion of cooling for European residential buildings, the penetration shares in the cooling market and future projections of energy needs for cooling for each European region have been identified. A database was created where the results of this research relating to 38 European Nations divided into 179 regions were reported. Other previous works on the topics covered were limited to analyzing individual European nations, without ever going into detail about the individual regions within each nation, while the original contribution of the present work lies in the fact that the results achieved allow a specific numerical analysis and punctual for every single European region.

Keywords: buildings, energy, Europe, future

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Authors: E.K.K. Agyeman, P. Mousseau, A. Sarda, D. Edelin

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The uniform and controlled cooling of hot metals by the circulation of water in canals remains a challenge due to the phase change of the water and the high heat fluxes associated with the phase change. This is because, during the cooling process, the phases are not uniformly distributed along the canals with the liquid phase dominating at the entrances of the canals and the gaseous phase dominating towards the exits. The difference in thermal properties between both phases leads to a heterogeneous temperature distribution in the part being cooled. Slowing down the cooling process is also a challenge due to the high heat fluxes associated with the phase change of water. This study investigates the use of multiple water jets for the controlled and homogenous cooling of hot metal parts and the effect of gravity on the effectiveness of the cooling process with a potential application in the cooling of composite forming moulds. A hole is bored at the centre of a steel block along its length. The jets are generated from the holes of a perforated steel pipe which is placed along the centre of the hole bored in the steel block. The evolution of the temperature with respect to time on the external surface of the steel block is measured simultaneously by thermocouples and an infrared camera. Different jet positions are tested in order to identify the jet placement configuration that ensures the most homogenous cooling of the block while the cooling speed is controlled by an intermittent impingement of the jets. In order to study the effect of gravity on the cooling process, a scenario where the jets are oriented in the opposite direction to that of gravity is compared to one where the jets are aligned in the same direction as gravity. It’s observed that orienting the jets in the direction of gravity reduces the effectiveness of the cooling process on the face of the block facing the impinging jets. This is due to the formation of a deeper pool of water due to the effect gravity and of the curved surface of the canal. This deeper pool of water influences the boiling regime characterized by a slower bubble evacuation when compared to the scenario where the jets are opposed to gravity.

Keywords: cooling speed, gravity, homogenous cooling, jet impingement

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Authors: Eman Alarfaj, Hissah Alabdullatif, Huda Alabdullatif, Ghazal Albakri, Nor Shahriza Abdul Karim

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Autism Spectrum Disorder is extensively spread amid children; it affects their social, communication and interactive skills. As robotics technology has been proven to be a significant helpful utility those able individuals to overcome their disabilities. Robotic technology is used in ASD therapy. The purpose of this research is to show how Nao robots can improve the social skills for children who suffer from autism in Saudi Arabia by interacting with the autistic child and perform a number of tasks. The objective of this research is to identify, implement, and test the effectiveness of the module for interacting with ASD children in an autism center in Saudi Arabia. The methodology in this study followed the ten layers of protocol that needs to be followed during any human-robot interaction. Also, in order to elicit the scenario module, TEACCH Autism Program was adopted. Six different qualified interaction modules have been elicited and designed in this study; the robot will be programmed to perform these modules in a series of controlled interaction sessions with the Autistic children to enhance their social skills.

Keywords: humanoid robot Nao, ASD, human-robot interaction, social skills

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Authors: Roberto M. G. Velásquez, Jonas R. Gazoli, Nelson Ponce Jr, Valério L. Borges, Alessandro Sete, Fernanda M. C. Tomé, Julian D. Hunt, Heitor C. Lira, Cristiano L. de Souza, Fabio T. Bindemann, Wilmar Wounnsoscky

Abstract:

Nowadays, society is working toward reducing energy losses and greenhouse gas emissions, as well as seeking clean energy sources, as a result of the constant increase in energy demand and emissions. Energy loss occurs in the gas pressure reduction stations at the delivery points in natural gas distribution systems (city gates). Installing pressure reduction turbines (PRT) parallel to the static reduction valves at the city gates enhances the energy efficiency of the system by recovering the enthalpy of the pressurized natural gas, obtaining in the pressure-lowering process shaft work and generating electrical power. Currently, the Brazilian natural gas transportation network has 9,409 km in extension, while the system has 16 national and 3 international natural gas processing plants, including more than 143 delivery points to final consumers. Thus, the potential of installing PRT in Brazil is 66 MW of power, which could yearly avoid the emission of 235,800 tons of CO2 and generate 333 GWh/year of electricity. On the other hand, an economic viability analysis of these energy efficiency projects is commonly carried out based on estimates of the project's cash flow obtained from several variables forecast. Usually, the cash flow analysis is performed using representative values of these variables, obtaining a deterministic set of financial indicators associated with the project. However, in most cases, these variables cannot be predicted with sufficient accuracy, resulting in the need to consider, to a greater or lesser degree, the risk associated with the calculated financial return. This paper presents an approach applied to the technical-economic viability analysis of PRTs projects that explicitly considers the uncertainties associated with the input parameters for the financial model, such as gas pressure at the delivery point, amount of energy generated by TRP, the future price of energy, among others, using sensitivity analysis techniques, scenario analysis, and Monte Carlo methods. In the latter case, estimates of several financial risk indicators, as well as their empirical probability distributions, can be obtained. This is a methodology for the financial risk analysis of PRT projects. The results of this paper allow a more accurate assessment of the potential PRT project's financial feasibility in Brazil. This methodology will be tested at the Cuiabá thermoelectric plant, located in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, and can be applied to study the potential in other countries.

Keywords: pressure reduction turbine, natural gas pressure drop station, energy efficiency, electricity generation, monte carlo methods

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Authors: Sumohon Matilal, Neveen Abdelrehim

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The purpose of this study is to examine the way households manage the risks of civil war, using the calculative practices of accounting as a lens. As is the case with other social phenomena, accounting serves as a conduit for attributing values and rationales to crisis and in the process makes it visible and calculable. Our focus, in particular, is on the dialogue facilitated by the numerical logic of accounting between the householder and a crisis scenario, such as civil war. In other words, we seek to study how the risk of war is rationalized through household budgets, income and expenditure statements etc. and how such accounting constructs in turn shape attitudes toward earnings and spending in a wartime economy. The existing literature on war and accounting demonstrates how an accounting logic can have potentially destabilising consequences and how it is used to legitimise war. However, very few scholars have looked at the way accounting constructs are used to internalise the effects of war in an average household and the behavioural consequences that arise from such accounting. Relatedly, scholars studying household accounting have mostly focussed on the links between gender and hierarchy in relation to managing the financial affairs. Few have focused on the role of household accounts in a crisis scenario. This study intends to fill this gap. We draw upon Egypt, a country in the middle of civil war since 2011 for our purpose. We intend to carry out 15-20 semi-structured interviews with middle income households in Cairo that maintain some form of accounts to study the following issues: 1. How do people internalise the risks of civil war? What kind of accounting constructs do they use (this may take the form of simple budgets, income-expenditure notes/statements on a periodic basis, spreadsheets etc.) 2. How has civil war affected household expenditure? Are people spending more/less than before? 3. How has civil war affected household income? Are people finding it difficult/easy to survive on the pre-war income? 4. How is such accounting affecting household behaviour towards earnings and expenditure? Are families prioritising expenditure on necessities alone? Are they refraining from indulging in luxuries? Are family members doing two or three jobs to cope with difficult times? Are families increasingly turning toward borrowing? Is credit available? From whom?

Keywords: risk, accounting, war, crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 181