Search results for: project progress prediction

Authors: Ebuka Valentine Iroha, Tsunemi Watanabe, Satoshi Tsuchiya

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Project management practices play an important role in construction project performance and are one of project managers' essential key performance indicators. Previous studies have explored the poor performance of the construction industry, with project delays and cost overruns identified to contribute largely to numerous abandoned projects. These challenges are attributed to insufficient project management practices and a lack of utilization of project managers. The actual causes of inadequate project management practices and underutilization of project managers have been rarely discussed. This study tends to bridge the gap by identifying and assessing the actual causes of insufficient project management practices and underutilization of project managers. This study differs from past studies investigating the causes of poor performance by using institutional analysis methods to identify and analyze the factors influencing project management practices and proper utilization of project managers. Based on a comprehensive literature review, this study identified some factors embedded in the construction industry that influence the institutional environment and weaken the laws and regulations. These factors were used as the basis for semi-structured interview questions to investigate their impacts on project management practices and project managers. The data collected were coded into a four-level framework for institutional analysis. This method was used to analyze the interrelationships between the identified embedded factors, institutional laws and regulations, and construction organizations to understand how these influences result in the underutilization of project managers. The study found that the underutilization of project managers consists of two subsystems, including underutilization and lowering commitment. The first subsystem, corruption, political influence, religious and tribal discrimination, and organizational culture, were found to affect the institutional structure. These embedded factors weaken the industry’s governance mechanism, forcing project managers to prioritize corrupt practices over project demands. The ineffectiveness of the existing laws and regulations worsens the situation, supporting unfair working conditions and contributing to the underperformance of project managers. This situation leads to the development of the second subsystem, which is characterized by a lack of opportunities for career development and minimal incentives within construction organizations. The findings provide significant potential for addressing systemic challenges in the construction industry, particularly the underutilization of project managers and enhancing organizational support measures to improve project management practices and mitigate the adverse effects of corruption.

Keywords: construction industry, project management, poor performance, embedded factors, project managers underutilization

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Authors: Sven Gehrke, Johannes Ruhland

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Data is the oil of our time, without them progress would come to a hold [1]. On the other hand, the mistrust of data mining is increasing [2]. The paper at hand shows different aspects of the concept of trust and describes the information asymmetry of the typical stakeholders of a data mining project using the CRISP-DM phase model. Based on the identified influencing factors in relation to trust, problematic aspects of the current approach are verified using various interviews with the stakeholders. The results of the interviews confirm the theoretically identified weak points of the phase model with regard to trust and show potential research areas.

Keywords: trust, data mining, CRISP DM, stakeholder management

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Authors: Sanoj Sahu, Ramakar Jha

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Odisha (India) is in need of reliable, cost-effective power generation. A prolonged electricity crisis and increasing power demand have left over thousands of citizens without access to electricity, and much of the population suffers from sporadic outages. The purpose of this project is to build a methodology to evaluate small hydropower potential, which can be used to alleviate the Odisha’s energy problem among rural communities. This project has three major tasks: the design of a simple SHEP for a single location along a river in the Odisha; the development of water flow prediction equations through a linear regression analysis; and the design of an ArcGIS toolset to estimate the flow duration curves (FDCs) at locations where data do not exist. An explanation of the inputs to the tool, as well has how it produces a suitable output for SHEP evaluation will be presented. The paper also gives an explanation of hydroelectric power generation in the Odisha, SHEPs, and the technical and practical aspects of hydroelectric power. Till now, based on topographical and rainfall analysis we have located hundreds of sites. Further work on more number of site location and accuracy of location is to be done.

Keywords: small hydropower, ArcGIS, rainfall analysis, Odisha’s energy problem

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Authors: Mehdi Mirzaei Alavijeh, Farzad Jalilian

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Background: Marijuana is the most widely used illicit drug worldwide, especially among adolescents and young adults, which can cause numerous complications. The aim of this study was to determine the pattern, motivation use, and factors related to marijuana use among Iranian youths based on the integrative model of behavioral prediction Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among 174 youths marijuana user in Kermanshah County and Isfahan County, during summer 2014 which was selected with the convenience sampling for participation in this study. A self-reporting questionnaire was applied for collecting data. Data were analyzed by SPSS version 21 using bivariate correlations and linear regression statistical tests. Results: The mean marijuana use of respondents was 4.60 times at during week [95% CI: 4.06, 5.15]. Linear regression statistical showed, the structures of integrative model of behavioral prediction accounted for 36% of the variation in the outcome measure of the marijuana use at during week (R2 = 36% & P < 0.001); and among them attitude, marijuana refuse, and subjective norms were a stronger predictors. Conclusion: Comprehensive health education and prevention programs need to emphasize on cognitive factors that predict youth’s health-related behaviors. Based on our findings it seems, designing educational and behavioral intervention for reducing positive belief about marijuana, marijuana self-efficacy refuse promotion and reduce subjective norms encourage marijuana use has an effective potential to protect youths marijuana use.

Keywords: marijuana, youth, integrative model of behavioral prediction, Iran

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Authors: Lee P. Leon, Raymond Charles

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This paper presents a method of evaluating the effect of aggregate angularity on hot mix asphalt (HMA) properties and its relationship to the Permanent Deformation resistance. The research concluded that aggregate particle angularity had a significant effect on the Permanent Deformation performance, and also that with an increase in coarse aggregate angularity there was an increase in the resistance of mixes to Permanent Deformation. A comparison between the measured data and predictive data of permanent deformation predictive models showed the limits of existing prediction models. The numerical analysis described the permanent deformation zones and concluded that angularity has an effect of the onset of these zones. Prediction of permanent deformation help road agencies and by extension economists and engineers determine the best approach for maintenance, rehabilitation, and new construction works of the road infrastructure.

Keywords: aggregate angularity, asphalt concrete, permanent deformation, rutting prediction

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Authors: Mouhoubi Nedjima, Sassi Boudemagh Souad, Chouabbia Khedidja

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Cities grow, large or small; they seek to gain a place in the market competition, which talks to sell a product that is the city itself. The metropolis are large cities enjoying a legal status and assets providing their dominions elements on a territory larger than their range, do not escape this situation. Thus, the search for promising tool metropolises better development and durability meet the challenges as economic, social and environmental is timely. The urban project is a new way to build the city; it is involved in the metropolises of two ways, either to manage the crisis and to meet the internal needs of the metropolis, or by creating a regional attractiveness with their potential. This communication will address the issue of urban project as a tool that has and should find a place in the panoply of existing institutional tools. Based on the example of the modernization project of the metropolis of eastern Algeria "Constantine", we will examine what the urban project can bring to a city, the extent of its impact but also the relationship between the visions actors so metropolization a success.

Keywords: urban project, metropolis, institutional tools, Constantine

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Authors: A. Elbaz, K. Spang

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Infrastructure projects are often subjected to delays and cost overruns and mistakenly described as unsuccessful projects. These projects have many peculiarities such as public attention, impact on the environment, subjected to special regulations, etc. They also deal with several stakeholders with different motivations and face unique risks. With this in mind we need to reconsider our approach to manage them, define their success factors and implement these success factors. Infrastructure projects are not only lacking a unified meaning of project success or a definition of success factors, but also a clear method to implement these factors. This paper investigates this gap and introduces a concept to implement success factors in an efficient way, taking into consideration the specific characteristics of infrastructure projects. This concept consists of six enablers such as project organization, project team, project management workflow, contract management, communication and knowledge transfer and project documentations. These enablers allow other success factors to be efficiently implemented in projects. In conclusion, this paper provides project managers as well as company managers with a tool to define and implement success factors efficiently in their projects, along with upgrading their assets for the coming projects. This tool consists of processes and validated checklists to ensure the best use of company resources and knowledge. Due to the special features of infrastructure projects this tool will be tested in the German infrastructure market. However, it is meant to be adaptable to other markets and industries.

Keywords: infrastructure projects, operative success factors, project success, success factors, transportation projects

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

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Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Zeeshan Muzammal, Usama Latif, Fouzia Younas, Syed Muhammad Hassan, Samia Razaq

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Unexpected rainfall has always been an issue in the lifetime of crops and brings destruction for the farmers who harvest them. Unfortunately, Pakistan is one of the countries in which untimely rain impacts badly on crops like wash out of seeds and pesticides etc. Pakistan’s GDP is related to agriculture, especially in rural areas farmers sometimes quit farming because leverage of huge loss to their crops. Through our surveys and research, we came to know that farmers in the rural areas of Pakistan need rain information to avoid damages to their crops from rain. We developed a prototype using ICTs to inform the farmers about rain one week in advance. Our proposed solution has two ways of informing the farmers. In first we send daily messages about weekly prediction and also designed a helpline where they can call us to ask about possibility of rain.

Keywords: ICTD, farmers, mobile based, Pakistan, rural areas, weather prediction

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Authors: Miranda Lin

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This project examined the impact of a globally focused service-learning project implemented in a multicultural education course in a Midwestern university. This project facilitated critical self-reflection and build cross-cultural competence while nurturing a partnership with two schools that serve students with disabilities in Vietnam. Through a service-learning project, pre-service teachers connected via Skype with the principals/teachers at schools in Vietnam to identify and subsequently develop needed instructional materials for students with mild, moderate, and severe disabilities. Qualitative data sources include students’ intercultural competence self-reflection survey (pre-test and post-test), reflections, discussions, service project, and lesson plans. Literature Review- Global service-learning is a teaching strategy that encompasses service experiences both in the local community and abroad. Drawing on elements of global learning and international service-learning, global service-learning experiences are guided by a framework that is designed to support global learning outcomes and involve direct engagement with difference. By engaging in real-world challenges, global service-learning experiences can support the achievement of learning outcomes such as civic. Knowledge and intercultural knowledge and competence. Intercultural competence development is considered essential for cooperative and reciprocal engagement with community partners.Method- Participants (n=27*) were mostly elementary and early childhood pre-service teachers who were enrolled in a multicultural education course. All but one was female. Among the pre-service teachers, one Asian American, two Latinas, and the rest were White. Two pre-service teachers identified themselves as from the low socioeconomic families and the rest were from the middle to upper middle class.The global service-learning project was implemented in the spring of 2018. Two Vietnamese schools that served students with disabilities agreed to be the global service-learning sites. Both schools were located in an urban city.Systematic collection of data coincided with the course schedule as follows: an initial intercultural competence self-reflection survey completed in week one, guided reflections submitted in week 1, 9, and 16, written lesson plans and supporting materials for the service project submitted in week 16, and a final intercultural competence self-reflection survey completed in week 16. Significance-This global service-learning project has helped participants meet Merryfield’s goals in various degrees. They 1) learned knowledge and skills in the basics of instructional planning, 2) used a variety of instructional methods that encourage active learning, meet the different learning styles of students, and are congruent with content and educational goals, 3) gained the awareness and support of their students as individuals and as learners, 4) developed questioning techniques that build higher-level thinking skills, and 5) made progress in critically reflecting on and improving their own teaching and learning as a professional educator as a result of this project.

Keywords: global service-learning, teacher education, intercultural competence, diversity

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Authors: Kenneth O. Otasowie, Matthew Ikuabe, Clinton Aigbavboa, Ayodeji Oke

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Construction project cost are not only made up of production costs. This cost comprises of many other elements such as the preparation of a bidding document, cost estimations, drafting contractual agreements and monitoring that contractual obligations are met. Several studies have stressed the need for transaction costs (TC) to be defined in a way that covers all phases of a project and not only the pre-contract phase. Hence, this study aims to appraise transaction cost in South African (SA) construction projects by assessing what constitutes transaction cost, influencing factors and possible optimisation measures. A survey design was adopted. A total number of eighty (80) questionnaires were administered to quantity surveyors, procurement managers and project managers in Guateng Province, SA and seventy-two (72) were returned and found suitable for analysis. Collected data was analysed using percentage, mean item score, standard deviation, one-sample t-test. The findings show that external technical interaction, uncertainty, human factors are the most significant constituents of TC in SA, while technical competency, experience in similar project type and project characteristics are the leading influencing factors. Furthermore, understanding project characteristics, clear communication and technically competent project teams are most of the significant measures for optimising TC in SA construction projects. Therefore, this study recommends that a competent project team and a clear communication are fundamental to proper management of TC in SA construction projects.

Keywords: construction projects, project cost, South Africa, transaction cost

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Authors: Jong Hoon Kim, Hyun-Soo Lee, Moonseo Park, Min Jeong, Inbeom Lee

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Pre-construction is essential in achieving the success of a construction project. Due to the early involvement of project participants in the construction phase, project managers are able to plan ahead and solve issues well in advance leading to the success of the project and the satisfaction of the client. This research utilizes quantitative data derived from construction management projects in order to identify the relationship between pre-construction, construction schedule, and client satisfaction. A total of 65 construction projects and 93 clients were investigated for this research in an attempt to identify (a) the relationship between pre-construction and schedule reduction, and (b) pre-construction and client loyalty. Based on the quantitative analysis, this research was able to establish a negative correlation based on 65 construction projects between pre-construction and project schedule existed. This finding represents that the more pre-construction is performed for a certain project, the overall construction schedule decreased. Then, to determine the relationship between pre-construction and client satisfaction, Net Promoter Score (NPS) of 93 clients from the 65 projects was utilized. Pre-construction and NPS was further analyzed and a positive correlation was found between the two. This infers that clients tend to be more satisfied with projects with higher ratio of pre-construction than those projects with less pre-construction.

Keywords: client loyalty, NPS, pre-construction, schedule reduction

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Authors: S. Fares, K. Mellakh, A. Hmouri

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The StorMer project aims to set up a network of researchers to study traditional hydraulic rainwater harvesting systems in the Mediterranean basin, a region suffering from the major impacts of climate change and limited natural water resources. The arid and semi-arid Mediterranean basin has a long history of pioneering water management practices. The region has developed various ancient traditional water management systems, such as cisterns and qanats, to sustainably manage water resources under historical conditions of scarcity. Therefore, the StorMer project brings together Spain, France, Italy, Greece, Jordan and Morocco to explore traditional rainwater harvesting practices and systems in the Mediterranean region and to develop accurate modeling to simulate the performance and sustainability of these technologies under present-day climatic conditions. The ultimate goal of this project was to resuscitate and valorize these practices in the context of contemporary challenges. This project was intended to establish a Mediterranean network to serve as a basis for a more ambitious project. The ultimate objective was to analyze traditional hydraulic systems and create a prototype hydraulic ecosystem using a coupled environmental approach and traditional and ancient know-how, with the aim of reinterpreting them in the light of current techniques. The combination of ‘traditional’ and ‘modern knowledge/techniques’ is expected to lead to proposals for innovative hydraulic systems. The pandemic initially slowed our progress, but in the end it forced us to carry out the fieldwork in Morocco and Saudi Arabia, and so restart the project. With the participation of colleagues from chronologically distant fields (archaeology, sociology), we are now prepared to share our observations and propose the next steps. This interdisciplinary approach should give us a global vision of the project's objectives and challenges. A diachronic approach is needed to tackle the question of the long-term adaptation of societies in a Mediterranean context that has experienced several periods of water stress. The next stage of the StorMer project is the implementation of pilots in non-urbanized regions. These pilots will test the implementation of traditional systems and will be maintained and evaluated in terms of effectiveness, cost and acceptance. Based on these experiences, larger projects will be proposed and could provide information for regional water management policies. One of the most important lessons learned from this project is the highly social nature of managing traditional rainwater harvesting systems. Unlike modern, centralized water infrastructures, these systems often require the involvement of communities, which assume ownership and responsibility for them. This kind of community engagement leads to greater maintenance and, therefore, sustainability of the systems. Knowledge of the socio-cultural characteristics of these communities means that the systems can be adapted to the needs of each location, ensuring greater acceptance and efficiency.

Keywords: oasis, rainfall harvesting, arid regions, Mediterranean

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Authors: Sokkhey Phauk, Takeo Okazaki

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The challenging task in educational institutions is to maximize the high performance of students and minimize the failure rate of poor-performing students. An effective method to leverage this task is to know student learning patterns with highly influencing factors and get an early prediction of student learning outcomes at the timely stage for setting up policies for improvement. Educational data mining (EDM) is an emerging disciplinary field of data mining, statistics, and machine learning concerned with extracting useful knowledge and information for the sake of improvement and development in the education environment. The study is of this work is to propose techniques in EDM and integrate it into a web-based system for predicting poor-performing students. A comparative study of prediction models is conducted. Subsequently, high performing models are developed to get higher performance. The hybrid random forest (Hybrid RF) produces the most successful classification. For the context of intervention and improving the learning outcomes, a feature selection method MICHI, which is the combination of mutual information (MI) and chi-square (CHI) algorithms based on the ranked feature scores, is introduced to select a dominant feature set that improves the performance of prediction and uses the obtained dominant set as information for intervention. By using the proposed techniques of EDM, an academic performance prediction system (APPS) is subsequently developed for educational stockholders to get an early prediction of student learning outcomes for timely intervention. Experimental outcomes and evaluation surveys report the effectiveness and usefulness of the developed system. The system is used to help educational stakeholders and related individuals for intervening and improving student performance.

Keywords: academic performance prediction system, educational data mining, dominant factors, feature selection method, prediction model, student performance

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Authors: Sagar Ghos, Andrew E. Elaryan, Syed Ashik Ali, Musharraf Zaman, Mohammed Ashiqur Rahman

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Achieving desired density during construction is an important indicator of pavement quality. Insufficient compaction often compromises pavement performance and service life. Intelligent compaction (IC) is an emerging technology for monitoring compaction quality during the construction of asphalt pavements. This paper aims to provide an overview of findings from four case studies in Oklahoma involving the compaction quality of asphalt pavements, namely SE 44th St project (Project 1) and EOC Turnpike project (Project 2), Highway 92 project (Project 3), and 108th Avenue project (Project 4). For this purpose, an IC technology, the intelligent compaction analyzer (ICA), developed at the University of Oklahoma, was used to evaluate compaction quality. Collected data include GPS locations, roller vibrations, roller speed, the direction of movement, and temperature of the asphalt mat. The collected data were analyzed using a widely used software, VETA. The average densities for Projects 1, 2, 3 and 4, were found as 89.8%, 91.50%, 90.7% and 87.5%, respectively. The maximum densities were found as 94.6%, 95.8%, 95.9%, and 89.7% for Projects 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. It was observed that the ICA estimated densities correlated well with the field core densities. The ICA results indicated that at least 90% of the asphalt mats were subjected to at least two roller passes. However, the number of passes required to achieve the desired density (94% to 97%) differed from project to project depending on the underlying layer. The results of these case studies show both opportunities and challenges in using IC for monitoring compaction quality during construction in real-time.

Keywords: asphalt pavement construction, density, intelligent compaction, intelligent compaction analyzer, intelligent compaction measure value

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Authors: Xiao Zhou, Jianlin Cheng

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A single amino acid mutation can have a significant impact on the stability of protein structure. Thus, the prediction of protein stability change induced by single site mutations is critical and useful for studying protein function and structure. Here, we presented a deep learning network with the dropout technique for predicting protein stability changes upon single amino acid substitution. While using only protein sequence as input, the overall prediction accuracy of the method on a standard benchmark is >85%, which is higher than existing sequence-based methods and is comparable to the methods that use not only protein sequence but also tertiary structure, pH value and temperature. The results demonstrate that deep learning is a promising technique for protein stability prediction. The good performance of this sequence-based method makes it a valuable tool for predicting the impact of mutations on most proteins whose experimental structures are not available. Both the downloadable software package and the user-friendly web server (DNpro) that implement the method for predicting protein stability changes induced by amino acid mutations are freely available for the community to use.

Keywords: bioinformatics, deep learning, protein stability prediction, biological data mining

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Authors: Jayanta Kumar Ghosh, Swastik Sunil Goriwale, Himangshu Sarkar

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Groundwater is one of the most valuable natural resources that society consumes for its domestic, industrial, and agricultural water supply. Its bulk and indiscriminate consumption affects the groundwater resource. Often, it has been found that the groundwater recharge rate is much lower than its demand. Thus, to maintain water and food security, it is necessary to monitor and management of groundwater storage. However, it is challenging to estimate groundwater storage (GWS) by making use of existing hydrological models. To overcome the difficulties, machine learning (ML) models are being introduced for the evaluation of groundwater level (GWL). Thus, the objective of this research work is to develop an ML-based model for the prediction of GWL. This objective has been realized through the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) model based on hydro-gravimetry. The model has been developed using training samples from field observations spread over 8 months. The developed model has been tested for the prediction of GWL in an observation well. The root means square error (RMSE) for the test samples has been found to be 0.390 meters. Thus, it can be concluded that the hydro-gravimetric-based ANN model can be used for the prediction of GWL. However, to improve the accuracy, more hydro-gravimetric parameter/s may be considered and tested in future.

Keywords: machine learning, hydro-gravimetry, ground water level, predictive model

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Authors: K. Roushanger, A. Soleymanzadeh

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Weirs are structures often used in irrigation techniques, sewer networks and flood protection. However, the hydraulic behavior of this type of weir is complex and difficult to predict accurately. An accurate flow prediction over a weir mainly depends on the proper estimation of discharge coefficient. In this study, the Genetic Expression Programming (GEP) approach was used for predicting trapezoidal and rectangular sharp-crested side weirs discharge coefficient. Three different performance indexes are used as comparing criteria for the evaluation of the model’s performances. The obtained results approved capability of GEP in prediction of trapezoidal and rectangular side weirs discharge coefficient. The results also revealed the influence of downstream Froude number for trapezoidal weir and upstream Froude number for rectangular weir in prediction of the discharge coefficient for both of side weirs.

Keywords: discharge coefficient, genetic expression programming, trapezoidal weir

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Authors: Rahul Rajak, Archana Kumari Roy

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Purpose: Development brings about structural change in the society. It is essential for socio-economic progress of the society, but it also causes pain to the people who are forced to displace from their motherland. Most of the people who are displaced due to development are poor and tribes. Development and displacement are interlinked with each other in the sense development sometimes leads to displacement of people. These studies mainly focus on socio-economic profile of villages and villagers likely to be affected by the Airport Project and they examine the issues of compensation and people’s level of satisfaction. Methodology: The study is based on Descriptive design; it is basically observational and correlation study. Primary data is used in this study. Considering the time and resource constrains, 100 people were interviewed covering socio-economic and demographic diversities from 6 out of 10 affected villages. Due to Navi Mumbai International Airport Project ten villages have to be displaced. Out of ten villages, this study is based on only six villages. These are Ulwe, Ganeshpuri, Targhar Komberbuje, Chincpada and Kopar. All six villages situated in Raigarh district under the Taluka Panvel in Maharashtra. Findings: It is revealed from the survey that there are three main castes of affected villages that are Agri, Koli, and Kradi. Entire village population of migrated person is very negligible. All three caste have main occupation are agricultural and fishing activities. People’s perception revealed that due to the establishment of the airport project, they may have more opportunities and scope of development rather than the adverse effect, but vigorously leave a motherland is psychological effect of the villagers. Research Limitation: This study is based on only six villages, the scenario of the entire ten affected villages is not explained by this research. Practical implication: The scenario of displacement and resettlement signifies more than a mere physical relocation. Compensation is not only hope for villagers, is it only give short time relief. There is a need to evolve institutions to protect and strengthen the right of Individuals. The development induced displacement exposed them to a new reality, the reality of their legality and illegality of stay on the land which belongs to the state. Originality: Mumbai has large population and high industrialized city have put land at the center of any policy implication. This paper demonstrates through the actual picture gathered from the field that how seriously the affected people suffered and are still suffering because of the land acquisition for the Navi Mumbai International Airport Project. The whole picture arise the question which is how long the government can deny the rights to farmers and agricultural laborers and remain unwilling to establish the balance between democracy and development.

Keywords: compensation, displacement, land acquisition, project affected person (PAPs), rehabilitation

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Authors: Marina Vicario, Amadeo Argüelles, Pilar Gómez, Carlos Hernández

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In this paper, the Computer Research Network of the National Polytechnic Institute of Mexico proposes a paradigmatic model for the inference of cognitive patterns in digital learning systems. This model leads to metadata architecture useful for analysis and prediction in online learning systems; especially on MOOc's architectures. The model is in the design phase and expects to be tested through an institutional of courses project which is going to develop for the MOOc.

Keywords: cognitive footprints, learning analytics, predictive learning, digital learning, educational computing, educational informatics

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Authors: Baeza S. Roberto

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The knitted fabric suffers a deformation in its dimensions due to stretching and tension factors, transverse and longitudinal respectively, during the process in rectilinear knitting machines so it performs a dry relaxation shrinkage procedure and thermal action of prefixed to obtain stable conditions in the knitting. This paper presents a dry relaxation shrinkage prediction of Bordeaux fiber using a feed forward neural network and linear regression models. Six operational alternatives of shrinkage were predicted. A comparison of the results was performed finding neural network models with higher levels of explanation of the variability and prediction. The presence of different reposes are included. The models were obtained through a neural toolbox of Matlab and Minitab software with real data in a knitting company of Southern Guanajuato. The results allow predicting dry relaxation shrinkage of each alternative operation.

Keywords: neural network, dry relaxation, knitting, linear regression

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Authors: Cristina Costa-Lobo, Sandra Fernandes, Miguel Magalhães, José Dinis-Carvalho, Alfredo Regueiro, Ana Carvalho

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This paper is a report on the findings of the construction and the validation of a questionnaire monetized in a portuguese higher education context with undergraduate students. The Questionnaire for the Evaluation of Entrepreneurship Project Psychopedagogical Practices consists of six scales: Critical appraisal of the project, Developed Learning and Skills, Teamwork, Teacher and Tutor Roles, Evaluation of Student Performance, and Project Effectiveness as a Teaching-Learning Methodology. The proceedings of its construction are analyzed, and the validity and internal consistency analysis are described. Findings indicate good indicators of validity, good fidelity and an interpretable factorial structure.

Keywords: entrepreneurship project, higher education, psychopedagogical practices, teacher and tutor roles

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Authors: Danilo López, Edwin Rivas, Fernando Pedraza

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Currently, one of the major challenges in wireless networks is the optimal use of radio spectrum, which is managed inefficiently. One of the solutions to existing problem converges in the use of Cognitive Radio (CR), as an essential parameter so that the use of the available licensed spectrum is possible (by secondary users), well above the usage values that are currently detected; thus allowing the opportunistic use of the channel in the absence of primary users (PU). This article presents the results found when estimating or predicting the future use of a spectral transmission band (from the perspective of the PU) for a chaotic type channel arrival behavior. The time series prediction method (which the PU represents) used is ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System). The results obtained were compared to those delivered by the RNA (Artificial Neural Network) algorithm. The results show better performance in the characterization (modeling and prediction) with the ANFIS methodology.

Keywords: ANFIS, cognitive radio, prediction primary user, RNA

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Authors: Kennedy Efosa Ehimwenma, Sujatha Krishnamoorthy, Safiya Al‑Sharji

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The probability computation of events is in the interval of [0, 1], which are values that are determined by the number of outcomes of events in a sample space S. The probability Pr(A) that an event A will never occur is 0. The probability Pr(B) that event B will certainly occur is 1. This makes both events A and B a certainty. Furthermore, the sum of probabilities Pr(E₁) + Pr(E₂) + … + Pr(Eₙ) of a finite set of events in a given sample space S equals 1. Conversely, the difference of the sum of two probabilities that will certainly occur is 0. This paper first discusses Bayes, the complement of probability, and the difference of probability for occurrences of learning-events before applying them in the prediction of learning objects in student learning. Given the sum of 1; to make a recommendation for student learning, this paper proposes that the difference of argMaxPr(S) and the probability of student-performance quantifies the weight of learning objects for students. Using a dataset of skill-set, the computational procedure demonstrates i) the probability of skill-set events that have occurred that would lead to higher-level learning; ii) the probability of the events that have not occurred that requires subject-matter relearning; iii) accuracy of the decision tree in the prediction of student performance into class labels and iv) information entropy about skill-set data and its implication on student cognitive performance and recommendation of learning.

Keywords: complement of probability, Bayes’ rule, prediction, pre-assessments, computational education, information theory

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Authors: Xiaodong Li, Peng Gao, Chao-Jung Huang, Shiying Hao, Xuefeng B. Ling, Yongxia Han, Yaqi Zhang, Le Zheng, Chengyin Ye, Modi Liu, Minjie Xia, Changlin Fu, Bo Jin, Karl G. Sylvester, Eric Widen

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Predicting the risk of Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma (PA) in advance can benefit the quality of care and potentially reduce population mortality and morbidity. The aim of this study was to develop and prospectively validate a risk prediction model to identify patients at risk of new incident PA as early as 3 months before the onset of PA in a statewide, general population in Maine. The PA prediction model was developed using Deep Neural Networks, a deep learning algorithm, with a 2-year electronic-health-record (EHR) cohort. Prospective results showed that our model identified 54.35% of all inpatient episodes of PA, and 91.20% of all PA that required subsequent chemoradiotherapy, with a lead-time of up to 3 months and a true alert of 67.62%. The risk assessment tool has attained an improved discriminative ability. It can be immediately deployed to the health system to provide automatic early warnings to adults at risk of PA. It has potential to identify personalized risk factors to facilitate customized PA interventions.

Keywords: cancer prediction, deep learning, electronic health records, pancreatic adenocarcinoma

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Authors: Nongcebo Ngcobo

Abstract:

This research explores the importance of including a multitude of voices in the cultural heritage narrative, particularly in South Africa. The Mashishing project is an extension of and builds on the existing ‘Biesje Poort project’ which is a rock art project that was funded by the National Heritage Council in 2010 - 2013. Hence, the Mashishing marking memories project applies comparable Biesje Poort project objectives, though in a different geographical area. The wider project objectives are to transfer skills, promote social cohesion and empowerment, and lastly to add to the knowledge base of the Mashishing region and the repository of the local museum in the Lydenburg museum. This study is located in the Mashishing area, in Mpumalanga, South Africa. In this area, there were no present multi-vocal heritage projects. This research assesses the Mashishing marking memories project through the culture-centered approach for communication for social change, which examines the impact that the diverse participants have on the operations of the Mashishing project and also investigates whether the culturally diverse participants facilitates or hinders effective participation within the project. Key findings of this research uncovered the significance of participation and diverse voices in the cultural heritage field. Furthermore, this study highlights how unequal power relations affect effective participation. As a result, this study encourages the importance of bringing the researcher and the participant in a safe space to facilitate mutual learning. It also encourages an exchange of roles, where the researcher shifts from being an authoritarian figure to being in the role of a listener.

Keywords: culture, heritage, participation, social change

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Authors: Marine Segui, Ruxandra Mihaela Botez

Abstract:

OpenVSP is an aerodynamic solver developed by National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) that allows building a reliable model of an aircraft. This software performs an aerodynamic simulation according to the angle of attack of the aircraft makes between the incoming airstream, and its speed. A reliable aerodynamic model of the Cessna Citation X was designed but it required a lot of computation time. As a consequence, a prediction method was established that allowed predicting lift and drag coefficients for all Mach numbers and for all angles of attack, exclusively for stall conditions, from a computation of three angles of attack and only one Mach number. Aerodynamic coefficients given by the prediction method for a Cessna Citation X model were finally compared with aerodynamics coefficients obtained using a complete OpenVSP study.

Keywords: aerodynamic, coefficient, cruise, improving, longitudinal, openVSP, solver, time

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Authors: Mustafa Dogru, Ruveyda Komurlu

Abstract:

Companies and professionals in the construction sector face various risks in every project depending on the characteristics, size, complexity, the location of the projects and the techniques used. Some risks’ effects may increase as the project progresses whereas new risks may emerge. Because of the ever-changing nature of the risks, risk management is a cyclical process that needs to be repeated throughout the project. Since the risks threaten the success of the project, risk management is an important part of the entire project management process. The aims of this study are to emphasize the importance of risk management in construction projects, summarize the risk identification process, and introduce a number of methods for preventing risks such as alternative design, checklists, prototyping and test-analysis-correction technique etc. Following the literature review conducted to list the techniques for preventing risks, case studies has been performed to compare and evaluate the success of the techniques in a number of completed projects with the same typology, performed domestic and international. Findings of the study suggest that controlling and minimizing the level of the risks in construction projects, taking optimal precautions for different risks, and mitigating or eliminating the effects of risks are important in order to prevent additional costs for the project. Additionally, focusing on the risks that have highest impact is the most rational way to minimize the effects of the risks on projects.

Keywords: construction projects, construction management, project management, risk management

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Authors: Qing Hui Wang, You Lin Fang, Min Chen

Abstract:

In 2003 the percentage of students in Shanghai taking part in tertiary education reached 53% of the age cohort, which is at the universal level according to Trow's typology. This achievement led to a conscientious effort by the government to improve internal efficiency of local universities and colleges through a series of programs, the most important of which is the 085 Project. This paper considers the effects of the 085 Project- the 5 initiatives launched in 2008 on increasing the investment to improve institutional overall visibilities, teaching excellence, knowledge innovation, faculty development as well as internationalization. Using the approach of ERC (a theory of equality, reciprocity, and competition) model, it was found that the initiatives helped the lower tier universities and colleges make full play in the aspects of strategic planning and identifying themselves. It was also found that the rate of growth of social resources for universities as a whole increased more quickly after the implementation of the 085 Project.

Keywords: 085 Project, impact, internal efficiency, local universities and colleges

Procedia PDF Downloads 468

Authors: E. A. Mlybari, M. S. Elbisy, A. H. Alshahri, O. M. Albarakati

Abstract:

Sea level rise threatens to increase the impact of future storms and hurricanes on coastal communities. Accurate sea level change prediction and supplement is an important task in determining constructions and human activities in coastal and oceanic areas. In this study, support vector machines (SVM) is proposed to predict daily tidal levels along the Jeddah Coast, Saudi Arabia. The optimal parameter values of kernel function are determined using a genetic algorithm. The SVM results are compared with the field data and with back propagation (BP). Among the models, the SVM is superior to BPNN and has better generalization performance.

Keywords: tides, prediction, support vector machines, genetic algorithm, back-propagation neural network, risk, hazards

Procedia PDF Downloads 468