Search results for: forecast aggregation

Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

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In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting

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Authors: A. Hakimiyan, H. Namazi

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Human behavior is defined as a range of behaviors exhibited by humans who are influenced by different internal or external sources. Human behavior is the subject of much research in different areas of psychology and neuroscience. Despite some advances in studies related to forecasting of human behavior, there are not many researches which consider the effect of the time delay between the presence of stimulus and the related human response. Analysis of EEG signal as a fractal time series is one of the major tools for studying the human behavior. In the other words, the human brain activity is reflected in his EEG signal. Artificial Neural Network has been proved useful in forecasting of different systems’ behavior especially in engineering areas. In this research, a time delay neural network is trained and tested in order to forecast the human EEG signal and subsequently human behavior. This neural network, by introducing a time delay, takes care of the lagging time between the occurrence of the stimulus and the rise of the subsequent action potential. The results of this study are useful not only for the fundamental understanding of human behavior forecasting, but shall be very useful in different areas of brain research such as seizure prediction.

Keywords: human behavior, EEG signal, time delay neural network, prediction, lagging time

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Authors: F. Massri, M. Shkarneh, B. Almassri

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Water scarcity and increasing water demand especially for residential use are major challenges facing Palestine. The need to accurately forecast water consumption is useful for the planning and management of this natural resource. The main objective of this paper is to (i) study the major factors influencing the water consumption in Palestine, (ii) understand the general pattern of Household water consumption, (iii) assess the possible changes in household water consumption and suggest appropriate remedies and (iv) develop prediction model based on the Artificial Neural Network to the water consumption in Palestinian cities. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part includes literature review of household water consumption studies. The second part concerns data collection methodology, conceptual frame work for the household water consumption surveys, survey descriptions and data processing methods. The third part presents descriptive statistics, multiple regression and analysis of the water consumption in the two Palestinian cities. The final part develops the use of Artificial Neural Network for modeling the water consumption in Palestinian cities.

Keywords: water management, demand forecasting, consumption, ANN, Ramallah

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Authors: Abiodun Ayodele Sanyaolu

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The research was carried out to investigate the time series analysis on quarterly production of fruit juice at the National Horticultural Research Institute Ibadan from 2010 to 2018. Documentary method of data collection was used, and the method of least square and moving average were used in the analysis. From the calculation and the graph, it was glaring that there was increase, decrease, and uniform movements in both the graph of the original data and the tabulated quarter values of the original data. Time series analysis was used to detect the trend in the highest number of fruit juice and it appears to be good over a period of time and the methods used to forecast are additive and multiplicative models. Since it was observed that the production of fruit juice is usually high in January of every year, it is strongly advised that National Horticultural Research Institute should make more provision for fruit juice storage outside this period of the year.

Keywords: fruit juice, least square, multiplicative models, time series

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Authors: Souhir Ben Amor, Heni Boubaker, Lotfi Belkacem

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This aims of this paper is to forecast the electricity spot prices. First, we focus on modeling the conditional mean of the series so we adopt a generalized fractional -factor Gegenbauer process (k-factor GARMA). Secondly, the residual from the -factor GARMA model has used as a proxy for the conditional variance; these residuals were predicted using two different approaches. In the first approach, a local linear wavelet neural network model (LLWNN) has developed to predict the conditional variance using the Back Propagation learning algorithms. In the second approach, the Gegenbauer generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity process (G-GARCH) has adopted, and the parameters of the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model has estimated using the wavelet methodology based on the discrete wavelet packet transform (DWPT) approach. The empirical results have shown that the k-factor GARMA-G-GARCH model outperform the hybrid k-factor GARMA-LLWNN model, and find it is more appropriate for forecasts.

Keywords: electricity price, k-factor GARMA, LLWNN, G-GARCH, forecasting

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Authors: Kashif Jabbar

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Milk adulteration is a global concern, and the current study was plan to synthesize Selenium nanoparticles by green method using plant extract of garlic, Allium Sativum, and to characterize Selenium nanoparticles through different analytical techniques and to apply Selenium nanoparticles as fast and easy technique for the detection of salicylic acid in milk. The highly selective, sensitive, and quick interference green synthesis-based sensing of possible milk adulterants i.e., salicylic acid, has been reported here. Salicylic acid interacts with nanoparticles through strong bonding interactions, hence resulting in an interruption within the formation of selenium nanoparticles which is confirmed by UV-VIS spectroscopy, scanning electron microscopy, and x-ray diffraction. This interaction in the synthesis of nanoparticles resulted in transmittance wavelength that decrease with the increasing amount of salicylic acid, showing strong binding of selenium nanoparticles with adulterant, thereby permitting in-situ fast detection of salicylic acid from milk having a limit of detection at 10-3 mol and linear coefficient correlation of 0.9907. Conclusively, it can be draw that colloidal selenium could be synthesize successfully by garlic extract in order to serve as a probe for fast and cheap testing of milk adulteration.

Keywords: adulteration, green synthesis, selenium nanoparticles, salicylic acid, aggregation

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Authors: Nattapong Techarattanased

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This survey research aimed to study the influence of attitude in services, product, and marketing mix affected intention to revisit in boutique hotel of foreign travelers in Bangkok, Thailand. The total 400 sets of closed-ended questionnaires were utilized for conducting data from foreign tourists who come to boutique hotel and can communicate in English. The descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis were used to analyze data. The research found that tourists’ attitude towards the service of check in and check out process, food and beverage, guest room and other facilities affected in opportunity of revisiting, recommending to others and possibility of revisiting in the future at 0.05 statistically significant levels. Tourists’ attitude towards service and marketing mix in term of people, physical evidence, price, process and channel of distribution could forecast intention to revisit in term of recommending to others and intention to revisit in the future at 0.05 statistically significant levels.

Keywords: boutique hotel, foreign tourists, intention to revisit, service marketing mix

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Authors: Amira Abdelrasoul, Huu Doan, Ali Lohi

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An efficient and well-planned ultrafiltration process is becoming a necessity for monetary returns in the industrial settings. The aim of the present study was to develop a mathematical model for an accurate prediction of ultrafiltration membrane fouling of latex effluent applied to homogeneous and heterogeneous membranes with uniform and non-uniform pore sizes, respectively. The models were also developed for an accurate prediction of power consumption that can handle the large-scale purposes. The model incorporated the fouling attachments as well as chemical and physical factors in membrane fouling for accurate prediction and scale-up application. Both Polycarbonate and Polysulfone flat membranes, with pore sizes of 0.05 µm and a molecular weight cut-off of 60,000, respectively, were used under a constant feed flow rate and a cross-flow mode in ultrafiltration of the simulated paint effluent. Furthermore, hydrophilic ultrafilic and hydrophobic PVDF membranes with MWCO of 100,000 were used to test the reliability of the models. Monodisperse particles of 50 nm and 100 nm in diameter, and a latex effluent with a wide range of particle size distributions were utilized to validate the models. The aggregation and the sphericity of the particles indicated a significant effect on membrane fouling.

Keywords: membrane fouling, mathematical modeling, power consumption, attachments, ultrafiltration

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Authors: A. L. Qureshi, A. A. Mahessar, A. Baloch

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Flood wave propagation in river channel flow can be enunciated by nonlinear equations of motion for unsteady flow. However, it is difficult to find analytical solution of these complex non-linear equations. Hence, verification of the numerical model should be carried out against field data and numerical predictions. This paper presents the verification of developed finite element model applying for unsteady flow in the open channels. The results of a proposed model indicate a good matching with both Preissmann scheme and HEC-RAS model for a river reach of 29 km at both sites (15 km from upstream and at downstream end) for discharge hydrographs. It also has an agreeable comparison with the Preissemann scheme for the flow depth (stage) hydrographs. The proposed model has also been applying to forecast daily discharges at 400 km downstream from Sukkur barrage, which demonstrates accurate model predictions with observed daily discharges. Hence, this model may be utilized for predicting and issuing flood warnings about flood hazardous in advance.

Keywords: finite element method, Preissmann scheme, HEC-RAS, flood forecasting, Indus river

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Authors: David Pham, Yongfeng Zhang

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Graphs are an important structure for data storage and computation. Recent years have seen the success of deep learning on graphs such as Graph Neural Networks (GNN) on various data mining and machine learning tasks. However, most of the deep learning models on graphs cannot easily explain their predictions and are thus often labelled as “black boxes.” For example, Graph Attention Network (GAT) is a frequently used GNN architecture, which adopts an attention mechanism to carefully select the neighborhood nodes for message passing and aggregation. However, it is difficult to explain why certain neighbors are selected while others are not and how the selected neighbors contribute to the final classification result. In this paper, we present a graph learning model called Explainable Graph Attention Network (XGAT), which integrates graph attention modeling and explainability. We use a single model to target both the accuracy and explainability of problem spaces and show that in the context of graph attention modeling, we can design a unified neighborhood selection strategy that selects appropriate neighbor nodes for both better accuracy and enhanced explainability. To justify this, we conduct extensive experiments to better understand the behavior of our model under different conditions and show an increase in both accuracy and explainability.

Keywords: explainable AI, graph attention network, graph neural network, node classification

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Authors: Ryan M. Monti, Bijal Mehta

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In cases of massive pulmonary embolism, defined as acute pulmonary embolism presenting with systemic hypotension or right ventricular dysfunction and impending failure, there is indication that unconventional therapies, such as phosphodiesterase inhibitors, endothelin receptor antagonists, and/or prostacyclin analogs may decrease the morbidity and mortality. Based on the premise that dilating the pulmonary artery will decrease the pulmonary vascular pressure, while simultaneously decreasing the aggregation of platelets, it can be hypothesized that increased blood flow through the pulmonary artery will decrease right heart strain and subsequent morbidity and mortality. While this theory has yet to be formally studied, the recommendations for treating massive pulmonary embolism with phosphodiesterase inhibitors, endothelin receptor antagonists, and/or prostacyclin analogs in conjunction with the current standards of care in massive pulmonary embolism should be formally studied. In particular, patients with massive PE who are unable to undergo thrombolysis/surgical intervention may be the ideal population to study the use of these treatments to determine any decrease in mortality and morbidity (short term and long term).

Keywords: acute pulmonary thromboembolism, treatment of pulmonary embolism, use of phosphodiesterase inhibitors, endothelin receptor antagonists, prostacyclin analogs in PE

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Authors: Bashir Abdu Muzakkari, Mohamad Afendee Mohamad, Mohd Fadzil Abdul Kadir

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Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) is an aggregation of several tiny, low-cost sensor nodes, spatially distributed to monitor physical or environmental status. WSN is constantly changing because of the rapid technological advancements in sensor elements such as radio, battery and operating systems. The Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols remain very vital in the WSN because of its role in coordinating communication amongst the sensors. Other than battery consumption, packet collision, network lifetime and latency are factors that largely depend on WSN MAC protocol and these factors have been widely treated in recent days. In this paper, we survey some latest proposed WSN Contention-based, Scheduling-based and Hybrid MAC protocols while presenting an examination, correlation of advantages and limitations of each protocol. Concentration is directed towards investigating the treatment of Quality of Service (QoS) performance metrics within these particular protocols. The result shows that majority of the protocols leaned towards energy conservation. We, therefore, believe that other performance metrics of guaranteed QoS such as latency, throughput, packet loss, network and bandwidth availability may play a critical role in the design of future MAC protocols for WSNs.

Keywords: WSN, QoS, energy consumption, MAC protocol

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Authors: Abdullah Eqal Al Mazrooei

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In this paper, a nonlinear dynamical system is presented. This system is a bilinear class. The bilinear systems are very important kind of nonlinear systems because they have many applications in real life. They are used in biology, chemistry, manufacturing, engineering, and economics where linear models are ineffective or inadequate. They have also been recently used to analyze and forecast weather conditions. Bilinear systems have three advantages: First, they define many problems which have a great applied importance. Second, they give us approximations to nonlinear systems. Thirdly, they have a rich geometric and algebraic structures, which promises to be a fruitful field of research for scientists and applications. The type of nonlinearity that is treated and analyzed consists of bilinear interaction between the states vectors and the system input. By using some properties of the tensor product, these systems can be transformed to linear systems. But, here we discuss the nonlinearity when the state vector is multiplied by itself. So, this model will be able to handle evolutions according to the Lotka-Volterra models or the Lorenz weather models, thus enabling a wider and more flexible application of such models. Here we apply by using an estimator to estimate temperatures. The results prove the efficiency of the proposed system.

Keywords: Lorenz models, nonlinear systems, nonlinear estimator, state-space model

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Authors: X. Lu, T. Lu, S. Javadi

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A simple dynamic approach is presented for analyzing thermal and moisture dynamics of buildings, which is of particular relevance to understanding climate change impacts on buildings, including assessment of risks and applications of resilience strategies. With the goal to demonstrate the proposed modeling methodology, to verify the model, and to show that wooden materials provide a mechanism that can facilitate the reduction of moisture risks and be more resilient to global warming, a wooden church equipped with high precision measurement systems was taken as a test building for full-scale time-series measurements. Sensitivity analyses indicate a high degree of accuracy in the model prediction regarding the indoor environment. The model is then applied to a future projection of climate indoors aiming to identify significant environmental factors, the changing temperature and humidity, and effective response to the climate change impacts. The paper suggests that wooden building materials offer an effective and resilient response to anticipated future climate changes.

Keywords: dynamic model, forecast, climate change impact, wooden structure, buildings

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Authors: Timothy J. Considine, Edward J. M. Manderson

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This paper develops an econometric forecasting system of energy demand coupled with engineering-economic models of energy supply. The framework is used to quantify the impact of state-level renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) achieved predominately with solar generation on electricity rates, electricity consumption, and environmental quality. We perform the analysis using Arizona’s RPS as a case study. We forecast energy demand in Arizona out to 2035, and find by this time the state will require an additional 35 million MWh of electricity generation. If Arizona implements its RPS when supplying this electricity demand, we find there will be a substantial increase in electricity rates (relative to a business-as-usual scenario of reliance on gas-fired generation). Extending the current regime of tax credits can greatly reduce this increase, at the taxpayers’ expense. We find that by 2025 Arizona’s RPS will implicitly abate carbon dioxide emissions at a cost between $101 and $135 per metric ton, and by 2035 abatement costs are between $64 and $112 per metric ton (depending on the future evolution of nature gas prices).

Keywords: electricity demand, renewable portfolio standard, solar, carbon dioxide

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Authors: Eunseop Yeom

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Platelets can be activated by the surrounding blood flows where a blood vessel is narrowed as a result of atherosclerosis. Numerous studies have been conducted to identify the relation between platelets activation and thrombus formation. To measure platelet adhesion, this study proposes an image analysis technique. Blood samples are delivered in the microfluidic channel, and then platelets are activated by a stenotic micro-channel with 90% severity. By applying proposed correlation mapping, which visualizes decorrelation of the streaming blood flow, the area of adhered platelets (APlatelet) was estimated without labeling platelets. In order to evaluate the performance of correlation mapping on the detection of platelet adhesion, the effect of tile size was investigated by calculating 2D correlation coefficients with binary images obtained by manual labeling and the correlation mapping method with different sizes of the square tile ranging from 3 to 50 pixels. The maximum 2D correlation coefficient is observed with the optimum tile size of 5×5 pixels. As the area of the platelet adhesion increases, the platelets plug the channel and there is only a small amount of blood flows. This image analysis could provide new insights for better understanding of the interactions between platelet aggregation and blood flows in various physiological conditions.

Keywords: platelet activation, correlation coefficient, image analysis, shear rate

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Authors: R. N. Astya, E. S. Nugraha, S. P. Nurheni, Hoerudin

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Vitamin A deficiency remains to be among the major malnutrition problems in Indonesia. Vitamin A is a fat-soluble vitamin which renders it difficult to be fortified in water-based foods and beverages. Furthermore, its low solubility and stability in aqueous system may limit its bioaccessibility in the gastrointestinal tract. Nanoemulsification of vitamin A may solve these problems. The objective of this study was to investigate bioaccessibility of vitamin A (retinyl palmitate/RP) nanoemulsion as influenced by two types of carrier oil (Virgin Coconut Oil/VCO and corn oil/CO) and surfactant concentrations (polysorbate 20/Tween 20 3% and 6%). Oil in water (o/w) nanoemulsions of vitamin A was produced through a combination of high shear-high pressure homogenization technique. The results showed that RP-VCO nanoemulsions were 121.62 nm (3%) and 115.40 (6%) nm in particle size, whereas RP-CO nanoemulsions were 154.72 nm (3%) and 134.00 nm (6%) in particle size. As for VCO nanoemulsions, the bioaccessibility of vitamin A was shown to be 89.84% and 55.32%, respectively. On the other hand, CO nanoemulsions produced vitamin A bioaccessibility of 53.66% and 44.85%, respectively. In general, VCO nanoemulsions showed better bioaccessibility of vitamin A than CO nanoemulsions. In this study, RP-VCO nanoemulsion with 3% Tween 20 had the highest ζ-potential value (-26.5 mV) and produced the highest bioaccessibility of vitamin A (89.84%, P<0.05). Additionally, the vitamin A nanoemulsion was stable even for after a week of freeze and thaw treatment. Following the freeze and thaw treatment, the vitamin A nanoemulsion showed good stability without aggregation and separation. These results would be useful for designing effective vitamin A delivery systems for food and beverage applications.

Keywords: bioaccessibility, carrier oil, surfactant, vitamin A nanoemulsion

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Authors: Azzedine Hamza, Chouaib Chakour, Messaoud Ramdani

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Energy demand prediction plays a crucial role in achieving next-generation power systems for agricultural greenhouses. As a result, high prediction quality is required for efficient smart grid management and therefore low-cost energy consumption. The aim of this paper is to investigate the effectiveness of a hybrid data-driven model in day-ahead energy demand prediction. The proposed model consists of Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS). The DWT is employed to decompose the original signal in a set of subseries and then an ANFIS is used to generate the forecast for each subseries. The proposed hybrid method (DWT-ANFIS) was evaluated using a greenhouse energy demand data for a week and compared with ANFIS. The performances of the different models were evaluated by comparing the corresponding values of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). It was demonstrated that discret wavelet transform can improve agricultural greenhouse energy demand modeling.

Keywords: wavelet transform, ANFIS, energy consumption prediction, greenhouse

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Authors: Riam Abu-Much, Muhamad Hugerat

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Nanoscience has become one of the main science fields in the world; its importance is reflected in both society and industry; therefore, it is very important to intensify educational programs among teachers and students that aim to introduce "Nano Concepts" to them. Two different lab activities were developed for demonstrating the importance of nanoscale materials using unique points of view. In the first, electrical conductive films made of silver nanoparticles were fabricated. The silver nanoparticles were protected against aggregation using electrical conductive polypyrrole, which acts also as conductive bridge between them. The experiments show a simpler way for fabricating conductive thin film than the much more complicated and costly conventional method. In the second part, the participants could produce emulsions of liposome structures using Phosphatidylcholine as a surfactant, and following by minimizing the size of it from micro-scale to nanometer scale (400 nm), using simple apparatus called Mini-Extruder, in that way the participants could realize the change in solution transparency, and the effect of Tyndall when the size of the liposomes is reduced. Freshmen students from the Academic Arab College for Education in Haifa, Israel, who are studying to become science teachers, participated in this lab activity as part of the course "Chemistry in the Lab". These experiments are appropriate for teachers, high school and college students.

Keywords: case study, colloid, emulsion, liposome, surfactant

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Authors: Xin-Hua Zhao

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In recent years, the growth rate of social responsibility reports disclosed by Chinese corporations has grown rapidly. The economic effects of the growing corporate social responsibility reports have become a hot topic. The article takes the chemical listed engineering corporations that disclose social responsibility reports in China as a sample, and based on the information asymmetry theory, examines the economic effect generated by corporate social responsibility disclosure with the method of ordinary least squares. The research is conducted from the perspective of analysts’ earnings forecasts and studies the impact of corporate social responsibility information disclosure on improving the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts. The results show that there is a statistically significant negative correlation between corporate social responsibility disclosure index and analysts’ earnings forecast error. The conclusions confirm that enterprises can reduce the asymmetry of social and environmental information by disclosing social responsibility reports, and thus improve the accuracy of analysts’ earnings forecasts. It can promote the effective allocation of resources in the market.

Keywords: analysts' earnings forecasts, corporate social responsibility disclosure, economic effect, information asymmetry

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Authors: A. Panacek, M. Kilianova, R. Prucek, V. Husickova, R. Vecerova, M. Kolar, L. Kvitek, R. Zboril

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In this work we describe the preparation of NanoSilver/methylcellulose hydrogel containing silver nanoparticles (NPs) for topical bactericidal applications. Highly concentrated dispersion of silver NPs as high as of 5g/L of silver with diameter of 10nm was prepared by reduction of AgNO3 via strong reducing agent NaBH4. Silver NPs were stabilized by addition of sodium polyacrylate in order to prevent their aggregation at such high concentration. This way synthesized silver NPs were subsequently incorporated into methylcellulose suspension at elevated temperature resulting in formation of NanoSilver/methylcellulose hydrogel when temperature cooled down to laboratory conditions. In vitro antibacterial activity assay proved high bactericidal and fungicidal efficiency of silver NPs alone in the form of dispersion as well as in the form of hydrogel against broad spectrum of bacteria and yeasts including highly multiresistant strains such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. A very low concentrations of silver as low as 0.84mg/L Ag in as-prepared dispersion gave antibacterial performance. NanoSilver/methylcellulose hydrogel showed antibacterial action at the lowest used silver concentration equal to 25mg/L. Such prepared NanoSilver/methylcellulose hydrogel represent promising topical antimicrobial formulation for treatment of burns and wounds.

Keywords: antimicrobial, burn, hydrogel, silver NPs

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Authors: Dionisios Panagiotaras, Dimitrios Papoulis, Elias Stathatos

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Microfibrous palygorskite and tubular halloysite clay mineral combined with nanocrystalline TiO2 are incorporating in the preparation of nanocomposite films on glass substrates via sol-gel route at 450 °C. The synthesis is employing nonionic surfactant molecule as pore directing agent along with acetic acid-based sol-gel route without addition of water molecules. Drying and thermal treatment of composite films ensure elimination of organic material lead to the formation of TiO2 nanoparticles homogeneously distributed on the palygorskite or halloysite surfaces. Nanocomposite films without cracks of active anatase crystal phase on palygorskite and halloysite surfaces are characterized by microscopy techniques, UV-Vis spectroscopy, and porosimetry methods in order to examine their structural properties. The composite palygorskite-TiO2 and halloysite-TiO2 films with variable quantities of palygorskite and halloysite were tested as photocatalysts in the photo-oxidation of Basic Blue 41 azo dye in water. These nanocomposite films proved to be most promising photocatalysts and highly effective to dye’s decoloration in spite of small amount of palygorskite -TiO2 or halloysite- TiO2 catalyst immobilized onto glass substrates mainly due to the high surface area and uniform distribution of TiO2 on clay minerals avoiding aggregation.

Keywords: halloysite, palygorskite, photocatalysis, titanium dioxide

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Authors: Kyoungok Jung, Chang Hong Bak, Gyeong Cheon Jo, Jin-Baek Kim

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Nanostructured arrays have drawn extensive attention because of their unique properties resulting from nanoscale features. However, it is difficult to achieve uniform and freestanding 1D nanostrcutures over a large area. Here, a simple and novel method was developed for fabrication of universal nanoporous templates for high-density nanostructure arrays, by combining self-assembly of a Si-containing block copolymer with a bilayer lithography system. We introduced a dually responsive photoresist bottom layer into which the nanopatterns of block copolymer are transferred by oxygen reactive ion etching. Because the dually responsive layer becomes cross-linked by heating, it can be used as a hard template during the etching process. It becomes soluble again by chain scission upon exposure to light. Therefore, it can be easily removed by the lift-off process. The template was applicable to the various conducting substrates due to the compatibility of the photoresist with a wide range of substrates and was used in electrodeposition for well-aligned and high-density inorganic and organic nanoarrays. We successfully obtained vertically aligned and highly ordered gold nanorods and polypyrrole dots on the substrate without aggregation, and these arrays did not collapse after removing the dually responsive templates by the simple lift-off process.

Keywords: block copolymer, dually responsive, nanostructure, photoresist

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Authors: S. Neelima, P. S. Subramanyam

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The major tool for distribution planning is load forecasting, which is the anticipation of the load in advance. Artificial neural networks have found wide applications in load forecasting to obtain an efficient strategy for planning and management. In this paper, the application of neural networks to study the design of short term load forecasting (STLF) Systems was explored. Our work presents a pragmatic methodology for short term load forecasting (STLF) using proposed two-stage model of wavelet transform (WT) and artificial neural network (ANN). It is a two-stage prediction system which involves wavelet decomposition of input data at the first stage and the decomposed data with another input is trained using a separate neural network to forecast the load. The forecasted load is obtained by reconstruction of the decomposed data. The hybrid model has been trained and validated using load data from Telangana State Electricity Board.

Keywords: electrical distribution systems, wavelet transform (WT), short term load forecasting (STLF), artificial neural network (ANN)

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Authors: Harith Mohammed Benbouali

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The concept of sustainable development is becoming increasingly important in our society. The efforts of specialized agencies, cleverly portrayed in the media, allow a widespread environmental awareness. Far from the old environmental movement in the backward-looking nostalgia, the environment is combined with today's progress. Many areas now include these concerns in their efforts, this in order to try to reduce the negative impact of human activities on the environment. The quantitative dimension of development has given way to the quality aspect. However, this feature is not common, and the initial target was abandoned in favor of economic considerations. Specialists in the field of building and construction have constantly sought to further integrate the environmental dimension, creating a seal of high environmental quality buildings. The pursuit of well-being of neighborhood residents and the quality of buildings are also a hot topic in planning. Quality of life is considered so on, since financial concerns dominate to the detriment of the environment and the welfare of the occupants. This work concerns the development of an analytical method based on multiple indicators of objectives across the district. The quantification of indicators related to objectives allows the construction professional, the developer or the community, to quantify and compare different alternatives for development of a neighborhood. This quantification is based on the use of simulation tools and a multi-criteria aggregation.

Keywords: sustainable development, environment, district, indicators, multi-criteria analysis, evaluation

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Authors: Su Bin Wang, Jin Hee Ahn, Tong-Shin Chang

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The peroxisome proliferator-activated receptors (PPARs) are member of nuclear receptor superfamily that act as a ligand-activated transcription factors. Although platelets lack a nucleus, previous studies have shown that PPARγ agonists, rosiglitazone, inhibited platelet activation induced by collagen. In this study, we investigated the inhibitory effects of KR-62980, a newly synthesized PPARγ agonist, on collagen receptor-stimulated platelet activation. The specific tyrosine phosphorylations of key components (Syk, Vav1, Btk and PLCγ2) for collagen receptor signaling pathways were suppressed by KR-62980. KR-62980 also attenuated downstream responses including cytosolic calcium elevation, P-selectin surface exposure, and integrin αIIbβ3 activation. PPARγ was found to associate with multiple proteins within the LAT signaling complex in collagen-stimulated platelets. This association was prevented by KR-62980, indicating a potential mechanism for PPARγ function in collagen-stimulated platelet activation. Furthermore, KR-62980 inhibited platelet aggregation and adhesion in response to collagen in vitro and prolonged in vivo thrombotic response in carotid arteries of mice. Collectively, these data suggest that KR-62980 inhibits collagen-stimulated platelet activation and thrombus formation through modulating the collagen receptor signaling pathways.

Keywords: KR-62980, PPARγ, antiplatelet, thrombosis

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Authors: Oscar Javier Herrera, Manuel Angel Camacho

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This paper addresses a cutting edge method of business demand forecasting, based on an empirical probability function when the historical behavior of the data is random. Additionally, it presents error determination based on the numerical method technique ‘propagation of errors’. The methodology was conducted characterization and process diagnostics demand planning as part of the production management, then new ways to predict its value through techniques of probability and to calculate their mistake investigated, it was tools used numerical methods. All this based on the behavior of the data. This analysis was determined considering the specific business circumstances of a company in the sector of communications, located in the city of Bogota, Colombia. In conclusion, using this application it was possible to obtain the adequate stock of the products required by the company to provide its services, helping the company reduce its service time, increase the client satisfaction rate, reduce stock which has not been in rotation for a long time, code its inventory, and plan reorder points for the replenishment of stock.

Keywords: demand forecasting, empirical distribution, propagation of error, Bogota

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Authors: Kwangwon Seo, Haksoo Han

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Al-Si was synthesized and introduced in poly 2,2’-m-(phenylene)-5,5’-bibenzimidazole (PBI). As a result, a series of five Al-Si/PBI composite (ASPBI) membranes (0, 3, 6, 9, and 12 wt.%) were developed and characterized for application in high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (HT-PEMFCs). The chemical and morphological structure of ASPBI membranes were analyzed by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, X-ray diffractometer and scanning electron microscopy. According to the doping level test and thermogravimetric analysis, as the concentration of Al-Si increased, the doping level increased up to 475%. Moreover, the proton conductivity, current density at 0.6V, and maximum power density of ASPBI membranes increased up to 0.31 Scm-1, 0.320 Acm-2, and 0.370 Wcm-2, respectively, because the increased concentration of Al-Si allows the membranes to hold more PA. Alternatively, as the amount of Al-Si increased, the tensile strength of PA-doped and -undoped membranes decreased. This was resulted by both excess PA and aggregation, which can cause serious degradation of the membrane and induce cracks. Moreover, the PA-doped and -undoped ASPBI12 had the lowest tensile strength. The improved performances of ASPBI membranes imply that ASPBI membranes are possible candidates for HT-PEMFC applications. However, further studies searching to improve the compatibility between PBI matrix and inorganic and optimize the loading of Al-Si should be performed.

Keywords: composite membrane, high temperature polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell, membrane electrode assembly, polybenzimidazole, polymer electrolyte membrane, proton conductivity

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Authors: Gajaanuja Megalathan, Banuka Athuraliya

Abstract:

Crime is one of our society's most intimidating and threatening challenges. With the majority of the population residing in cities, many experts and data provided by local authorities suggest a rapid increase in the number of crimes committed in these cities in recent years. There has been an increasing graph in the crime rates. People living in Sri Lanka have the right to know the exact crime rates and the crime rates in the future of the place they are living in. Due to the current economic crisis, crime rates have spiked. There have been so many thefts and murders recorded within the last 6-10 months. Although there are many sources to find out, there is no solid way of searching and finding out the safety of the place. Due to all these reasons, there is a need for the public to feel safe when they are introduced to new places. Through this research, the author aims to develop a mobile application that will be a solution to this problem. It is mainly targeted at tourists, and people who recently relocated will gain advantage of this application. Moreover, the Arima Model combined with ANN is to be used to predict crime rates. From the past researchers' works, it is evidently clear that they haven’t used the Arima model combined with Artificial Neural Networks to forecast crimes.

Keywords: arima model, ANN, crime prediction, data analysis

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Authors: Muhammad Bilal, Adil Ahmed

Abstract:

This study proposes an approach for electrical induction motor predictive maintenance utilizing machine learning algorithms. On the basis of a study of temperature data obtained from sensors put on the motor, the goal is to predict motor failures. The proposed models are trained to identify whether a motor is defective or not by utilizing machine learning algorithms like Support Vector Machines (SVM) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN). According to a thorough study of the literature, earlier research has used motor current signature analysis (MCSA) and vibration data to forecast motor failures. The temperature signal methodology, which has clear advantages over the conventional MCSA and vibration analysis methods in terms of cost-effectiveness, is the main subject of this research. The acquired results emphasize the applicability and effectiveness of the temperature-based predictive maintenance strategy by demonstrating the successful categorization of defective motors using the suggested machine learning models.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, electrical induction motors, machine learning, temperature signal methodology, motor failures

Procedia PDF Downloads 80