Search results for: correction factors for axisymmetric models

Authors: Pooria Norouzi, Nicholas Tsang, Adam van der Goes, Joseph Yu, Douglas Zheng, Sirine Maleej

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In this study, virtual meters will be designed and used for energy balance measurements of an air handling unit (AHU). The method aims to replace traditional physical sensors in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems with simulated virtual meters. Due to the inability to manage and monitor these systems, many HVAC systems have a high level of inefficiency and energy wastage. Virtual meters are implemented and applied in an actual HVAC system, and the result confirms the practicality of mathematical sensors for alternative energy measurement. While most residential buildings and offices are commonly not equipped with advanced sensors, adding, exploiting, and monitoring sensors and measurement devices in the existing systems can cost thousands of dollars. The first purpose of this study is to provide an energy consumption rate based on available sensors and without any physical energy meters. It proves the performance of virtual meters in HVAC systems as reliable measurement devices. To demonstrate this concept, mathematical models are created for AHU-07, located in building NE01 of the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT) Burnaby campus. The models will be created and integrated with the system’s historical data and physical spot measurements. The actual measurements will be investigated to prove the models' accuracy. Based on preliminary analysis, the resulting mathematical models are successful in plotting energy consumption patterns, and it is concluded confidently that the results of the virtual meter will be close to the results that physical meters could achieve. In the second part of this study, the use of virtual meters is further assisted by artificial intelligence (AI) in the HVAC systems of building to improve energy management and efficiency. By the data mining approach, virtual meters’ data is recorded as historical data, and HVAC system energy consumption prediction is also implemented in order to harness great energy savings and manage the demand and supply chain effectively. Energy prediction can lead to energy-saving strategies and considerations that can open a window in predictive control in order to reach lower energy consumption. To solve these challenges, the energy prediction could optimize the HVAC system and automates energy consumption to capture savings. This study also investigates AI solutions possibility for autonomous HVAC efficiency that will allow quick and efficient response to energy consumption and cost spikes in the energy market.

Keywords: virtual meters, HVAC, artificial intelligence, energy consumption prediction

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Authors: Farzana Rahman, Mohammed Hossain Ezaz, Dipak Halder, Proshanta Mondal

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Site safety is an important function regardless of project size. A key goal, which must be met for a successful project, is to finish the project with a good safety record. Construction safety is an important issue in all over the world. Today, developed countries strictly follow the safety procedure to avoid any hazard, accident or fatality. However, for a least developed country like Bangladesh, still accidents and fatalities are quite high due to lack of safety management. With the increased volume of construction work in Bangladesh, the need for proper attention in safety issues has become essential for human, economic and other consideration. Recently lots of accidents are taking place in construction sites of Bangladesh causing severe injury to death to the workers and pedestrians. There are a number of reasons/factors that these high numbers are widespread to the construction industry that are not found in most other businesses. The objective of this research work is to identify and explore the various factor that affect the construction site safety in Bangladesh. A questionnaire surveys was conducted to the reputed construction companies of Bangladesh to examine the present safety situation in construction sites. Nine factors were selected for the survey. The finding shows that 78% of organizations’ from the respondents are conscious about the safety procedure and they usually provide safety measures for the workers. Promotion of safety measures at the working site results in a better working environment, higher productivity and greater contentment among the workers.

Keywords: construction sites, fatalities, safety issues, safety situation

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Authors: Yu Qin, Wanjiaman Li

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The widespread use of mobile electronic devices increases the complexities of mobile security. This thesis aims to provide a secure communication environment for smartphone users. Some research proves that the one-time pad is one of the securest encryption methods, and that the key distribution problem can be solved by using the QKD (quantum key distribution). The objective of this project is to design an Android APP (application) to exchange several random keys between mobile phones. Inspired by QKD, the developed APP uses the quick response (QR) code as a carrier to dispatch large amounts of one-time keys. After evaluating the performance of APP, it allows the mobile phone to capture and decode 1800 bytes of random data in 600ms. The continuous scanning mode of APP is designed to improve the overall transmission performance and user experience, and the maximum transmission rate of this mode is around 2200 bytes/s. The omnidirectional readability and error correction capability of QR code gives it a better real-life application, and the features of adequate storage capacity and quick response optimize overall transmission efficiency. The security of this APP is guaranteed since QR code is exchanged face-to-face, eliminating the risk of being eavesdropped. Also, the id of QR code is the only message that would be transmitted through the whole communication. The experimental results show this project can achieve superior transmission performance, and the correlation between the transmission rate of the system and several parameters, such as the QR code size, has been analyzed. In addition, some existing technologies and the main findings in the context of the project are summarized and critically compared in detail.

Keywords: one-time pad, QKD (quantum key distribution), QR code, application

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Authors: Ekele Alih, Enejo Jalija

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Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) is made up of three types namely: Clitoridectomy, Excision and Infibulation. In this study, we examine the factors responsible for FGM in order to identify the causality variables in a logistic regression approach. From the result of the survey conducted by the Public Health Division, Nigeria Institute of Medical Research, Yaba, Lagos State, the tau statistic, τ was used to screen 9 factors that causes FGM in order to select few of the predictors before multiple regression equation is obtained. The need for this may be that the sample size may not be able to sustain having a regression with all the predictors or to avoid multi-collinearity. A total of 300 respondents, comprising 150 adult males and 150 adult females were selected for the household survey based on the multi-stage sampling procedure. The tau statistic,

Keywords: female genital mutilation, logistic regression, tau statistic, African society

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Authors: Ivan Poza Martínez

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The international energy landscape has been significantly affected by the Covid-19 pandemic and te conflict in Ukraine. The Vaca Muerta sedimentary formation in Argentina´s Neuquén province has become a crucial area for energy production, specifically in the shale gas ad shale oil sectors. The massive investment required for theexploitation of this reserve make it essential to understand te determinants of the investment in the upstream sector at both local ad international levels. The aim of this study is to identify the qualitative and quantitative determinants of investment in Vaca Muerta. The research methodolody employs both quantiative ( econometrics ) and qualitative approaches. A linear regression model is used to analyze the impact in non-conventional hydrocarbons. The study highlights that, in addition to quantitative factors, qualitative variables, particularly the design of a regulatory framework, significantly influence the level of the investment in Vaca Muerta. The analysis reveals the importance of attracting both domestic and foreign capital investment. This research contributes to understanding the factors influencing investment inthe Vaca Muerta regioncomapred to other published studies. It emphasizes to role of qualitative varibles, such as regulatory frameworks, in the development of the shale gas and oil sectors. The study uses a combination ofquantitative data , such a investment figures, and qualitative data, such a regulatory frameworks. The data is collected from various rpeorts and industry publications. The linear regression model is used to analyze the relationship between the variables and the investment in Vaca Muerta. The research addresses the question of what factors drive investment in the Vaca Muerta region, both from a quantitative and qualitative perspective. The study concludes that a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors, including the design of a regulatory framework, plays a significant role in attracting investment in Vaca Muerta. It highlights the importance of these determinants in the developmentof the local energy sector and the potential economic benefits for Argentina and the Southern Cone region.

Keywords: vaca muerta, FDI, shale gas, shale oil, YPF

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Authors: Xiujuan Wang, Weiguo Wang, Lei Yu, Xue Liu

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There are many purported benefits of public bike systems, therefore, it has seen a sharp increase since 2008 in Hangzhou, China. However, there are few studies on the public bicycle system in Chinese cities. In order to make recommendations for the development of public bicycle systems, this paper analyzes the influencing factors by using the system dynamics method according to the main characteristics of Chinese cities. The main characteristics of Chinese cities lie in the city size and process of urbanization, traffic mode division, demographic characteristics, bicycle infrastructure and right of way, regime structure. Finally, under the context of Chinese bike sharing systems, these analyses results can help to design some feasible strategies for the planner to the development of the public bicycles.

Keywords: engineering of communication and transportation system, bicycle, public bike, characteristics of Chinese cities, system dynamics

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Authors: Roohallah Yousefi

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Introduction: Voxelotor, also known as GBT 440, binds to the alpha cleft in HbS tetramers and promotes the stability of the relaxed or oxygenated state of HbS. This process hinders the conformational change of the HbS tetramers into the deoxygenated state. Voxelotor prevents interactions between HbS tetramers in the deoxygenated state, ultimately inhibiting the polymerization of HbS tetramers and resulting in significant clinical improvements, particularly in raising hemoglobin levels in patients. In this study, we have explored the use of herbal compound models, such as rosmarinic acid and compounds with similar structures that exhibit high binding affinity to Voxelotor's hemoglobin binding site. Materials and methods: The molecular model of hemoglobin (PDB: 5E83) was initially obtained from the RCSB PDB database. In addition, we collected 453 ligand models with structural similarity to rosmarinic acid from the PubChem database. To prepare these models for molecular docking, we utilized the Molegro Virtual Docker tool. Subsequently, we used the SwissADME web tool to predict the physicochemical properties and pharmacokinetics of these compounds. Results: We investigated the affinity and binding site of 453 compounds similar to rosmarinic acid on the hemoglobin model (PDB: 5E83). Our focus was on the alpha cleft between two alpha chains of the hemoglobin model (PDB: 5E83). The results showed that most compounds had molecular weights above 500 daltons, and some exhibited acceptable hydrophobicity. Furthermore, their solubility in aqueous solutions was good. None of the compounds were able to cross the blood-brain barrier or have gastrointestinal absorption. However, they did have varying inhibitory effects on CYP2C9 cytochromes. The skin penetration rate was generally low. Conclusion: Through our study, we identified three compounds (CID: 162739375, CID: 141386569, and CID: 24015539) with promising potential for further research. These compounds demonstrated high binding affinity to the hemoglobin model, favorable dissolution and digestive absorption rates, as well as suitable hydrophobicity, making them ideal candidates for continued laboratory investigation.

Keywords: voxelotor, binding site, hemoglobin, rosmarinic acid

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Authors: Sophie Whittle

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Prior to present day, English syntax historically exhibited an inconsistent verb-second (V2) rule, which saw the verb move to the second position in the sentence following the fronting of a type of phrase. There was a high amount of variation throughout the history of English with regard to the ordering of subject and verb, and many explanations attempting to account for this variation have been documented in previous literature. However, these attempts have been contradictory, with many accounts positing the effect of previous syntactic changes as the main motivations behind the decline of V2. For instance, morphosyntactic changes, such as the loss of clitics and the loss of empty expletives, have been loosely connected to changes in frequency for the loss of V2. The questions surrounding the development of non-V2 in English have, therefore, yet to be answered. The current paper aims to bring together a number of explanations from different linguistic fields to determine the factors driving the changes in English V2. Using historical corpus-based methods, the study analyses both quantitatively and qualitatively the changes in frequency for the history of V2 in the Old, Middle, and Modern English periods to account for the variation in a range of sentential environments. These methods delve into the study of information structure, prosody and language contact to explain variation within different contexts. The analysis concludes that these factors, in addition to changes within the syntax, are responsible for the position of verb movement. The loss of V2 serves as an exemplar study within the field of historical linguistics, which combines a number of factors in explaining language change in general.

Keywords: corpora, English, language change, mixed-methods, syntax, verb-second

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Authors: Maruf Ariyo Raheem, Patrick Oseloka Ezepue

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This research aimed at determining most appropriate heteroskedastic model to predicting volatility of 10 major Nigerian banks: Access, United Bank for Africa (UBA), Guaranty Trust, Skye, Diamond, Fidelity, Sterling, Union, ETI and Zenith banks using daily closing stock prices of each of the banks from 2004 to 2014. The models employed include ARCH (1), GARCH (1, 1), EGARCH (1, 1) and TARCH (1, 1). The results show that all the banks returns are highly leptokurtic, significantly skewed and thus non-normal across the four periods except for Fidelity bank during financial crises; findings similar to those of other global markets. There is also strong evidence for the presence of heteroscedasticity, and that volatility persistence during crisis is higher than before the crisis across the 10 banks, with that of UBA taking the lead, about 11 times higher during the crisis. Findings further revealed that Asymmetric GARCH models became dominant especially during financial crises and post crises when the second reforms were introduced into the banking industry by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Generally, one could say that Nigerian banks returns are volatility persistent during and after the crises, and characterised by leverage effects of negative and positive shocks during these periods

Keywords: global financial crisis, leverage effect, persistence, volatility clustering

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Authors: V. Bezverbny

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The actuality of the project deals with stable growing of deviant behavior’ statistics among Moscow citizens. During the recent years the socioeconomic health, wealth and life expectation of Moscow residents is regularly growing up, but the limits of crime and drug addiction have grown up seriously. Another serious Moscow problem has been economical stratification of population. The cost of identical residential areas differs at 2.5 times. The project is aimed at complex research and the development of methodology for main factors and reasons evaluation of deviant behavior growing in Moscow. The main project objective is finding out the links between the urban environment quality and dynamics of citizens’ deviant behavior in regional and municipal aspect using the statistical research methods and GIS modeling. The conducted research allowed: 1) to evaluate the dynamics of deviant behavior in Moscow different administrative districts; 2) to describe the reasons of crime increasing, drugs addiction, alcoholism, suicides tendencies among the city population; 3) to develop the city districts classification based on the level of the crime rate; 4) to create the statistical database containing the main indicators of Moscow population deviant behavior in 2010-2015 including information regarding crime level, alcoholism, drug addiction, suicides; 5) to present statistical indicators that characterize the dynamics of Moscow population deviant behavior in condition of expanding the city territory; 6) to analyze the main sociological theories and factors of deviant behavior for concretization the deviation types; 7) to consider the main theoretical statements of the city sociology devoted to the reasons for deviant behavior in megalopolis conditions. To explore the level of deviant behavior’ factors differentiation, the questionnaire was worked out, and sociological survey involved more than 1000 people from different districts of the city was conducted. Sociological survey allowed to study the socio-economical and psychological factors of deviant behavior. It also included the Moscow residents’ open-ended answers regarding the most actual problems in their districts and reasons of wish to leave their place. The results of sociological survey lead to the conclusion that the main factors of deviant behavior in Moscow are high level of social inequality, large number of illegal migrants and bums, nearness of large transport hubs and stations on the territory, ineffective work of police, alcohol availability and drug accessibility, low level of psychological comfort for Moscow citizens, large number of building projects.

Keywords: deviant behavior, megapolis, Moscow, urban environment, social stratification

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Authors: Debasis Sarkar, Jatan Talati

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This paper is an attempt to develop an Integrated Mass Rapid Transit System (MRTS) for a smart city project in Western India. Integrated transportation is one of the enablers of smart transportation for providing a seamless intercity as well as regional level transportation experience. The success of a smart city project at the city level for transportation is providing proper integration to different mass rapid transit modes by way of integrating information, physical, network of routes fares, etc. The methodology adopted for this study was primary data research through questionnaire survey. The respondents of the questionnaire survey have responded on the issues about their perceptions on the ways and means to improve public transport services in urban cities. The respondents were also required to identify the factors and attributes which might motivate more people to shift towards the public mode. Also, the respondents were questioned about the factors which they feel might restrain the integration of various modes of MRTS. Furthermore, this study also focuses on developing a utility equation for respondents with the help of multiple linear regression analysis and its probability to shift to public transport for certain factors listed in the questionnaire. It has been observed that for shifting to public transport, the most important factors that need to be considered were travel time saving and comfort rating. Also, an Integrated MRTS can be obtained by combining metro rail with BRTS, metro rail with monorail, monorail with BRTS and metro rail with Indian railways. Providing a common smart card to transport users for accessing all the different available modes would be a pragmatic solution towards integration of the available modes of MRTS.

Keywords: mass rapid transit systems, smart city, metro rail, bus rapid transit system, multiple linear regression, smart card, automated fare collection system

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Authors: J. Mizuno, S. Takahashi

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In this paper, design and fabrication of an actuated parallel-plate mirror based on a 3D-printer is described. The mirror and electrode layers are fabricated separately and assembled thereafter. The alignment is performed by dowel pin-hole pairs fabricated on the respective layers. The electrodes are formed on the surface of the electrode layer by Au ion sputtering using a suitable mask, which is also fabricated by a 3D-printer.For grounding the mirror layer, except the contact area with the electrode paths, all the surface is Au ion sputtered. 3D-printers are widely used for creating 3D models or mock-ups. The authors have recently proposed that these models can perform electromechanical functions such as actuators by suitably masking them followed by metallization process. Since the smallest possible fabrication size is in the order of sub-millimeters, these electromechanical devices are named by the authors as SMEMS (Sub-Milli Electro-Mechanical Systems) devices. The proposed mirror described in this paper which consists of parallel-plate electrostatic actuators is also one type of SMEMS devices. In addition, SMEMS is totally environment-clean compared to MEMS (Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems) fabrication processes because any hazardous chemicals or gases are utilized.

Keywords: MEMS, parallel-plate mirror, SMEMS, 3D-printer

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Authors: Omar Bendjimaa, Karzabi Abdelatif

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Small and medium enterprises have witnessed several developments in recent years thanks to the policies and programs of support given by the state, and that is due to their importance in local and national development. Nevertheless, the success and development of these firms depends on a number of factors, especially the human element, for instance, the culture of the manager has its origin in the culture of the community and is of crucial influence in these firms. In fact, this culture is nothing more than a set of values, perceptions, beliefs, symbols and practices repeated, in addition to the knowledge it has received from the readings and the modern means of education. All these factors have an impact on the effectiveness of governance, its resolutions, instructions and performance of its function as a manager of a medium or small enterprise is inevitably affected by these cultural values, it is the driving force, the leader, and the observer at the same time.

Keywords: small and medium enterprises, the culture of the manager, the culture of the community, values, perceptions, beliefs, symbols, performance

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Authors: Sana Ahrar

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Cities are undergoing rapid transformation with the change in lifestyle and technological advancements. These transformations may be experienced or physically visible in the built form. This paper focuses on the relationship between the social, physical environment, change in lifestyle and the interrelated factors influencing the transformation of any historic city. Shahjahanabad as a city has undergone transformation under the various political powers as well as the various policy implementations after independence. These visible traces of transformation diffused throughout the city may be due to socio-economic, historic, political factors and due to the globalization process. This study shall enable evolving a theory for the study of transformation of Historic cities such as Shahjahanabad: which has been plundered, rebuilt, and which still thrives as a ‘living heritage city’. The theory developed will be the process of studying the transformation and can be used by planners, policy makers and researchers in different urban contexts.

Keywords: heritage, historic cities, Shahjahanabad, transformation

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Authors: Fatih Kantas

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Exhaust systems are key contributors to ground vehicles as a heat source. Understanding heat transfer in exhaust systems is related to defining effective parameter on heat transfer in exhaust system. In this journal, over 20 Nusselt numbers are investigated. This study shows advantages and disadvantages of various Nusselt numbers in different range Re, Pr and pulsating flow amplitude and frequency. Also (CAF) Convective Augmentation Factors are defined to correct standard Nusselt number for geometry and location of exhaust system. Finally, optimum Nusselt number and Convective Augmentation Factors are recommended according to Re, Pr and pulsating flow amplitude and frequency, geometry and location effect of exhaust system.

Keywords: exhaust gas flow, heat transfer correlation, Nusselt, Prandtl, pulsating flow

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Authors: Virginie Hergault, Siham Chebbah, Bertrand Frere

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Following in-house objectives, Central laboratory of Paris police Prefecture conducted a general review on models and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) codes used to simulate pollutant dispersion in the atmosphere. Starting from that review and considering main features of Large Eddy Simulation, Central Laboratory Of Paris Police Prefecture (LCPP) postulates that the Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) model, from National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), should be well suited for air pollutant dispersion modeling. This paper focuses on the implementation and the evaluation of FDS in the frame of the European COST ES1006 Action. This action aimed at quantifying the performance of modeling approaches. In this paper, the CUTE dataset carried out in the city of Hamburg, and its mock-up has been used. We have performed a comparison of FDS results with wind tunnel measurements from CUTE trials on the one hand, and, on the other, with the models results involved in the COST Action. The most time-consuming part of creating input data for simulations is the transfer of obstacle geometry information to the format required by SDS. Thus, we have developed Python codes to convert automatically building and topographic data to the FDS input file. In order to evaluate the predictions of FDS with observations, statistical performance measures have been used. These metrics include the fractional bias (FB), the normalized mean square error (NMSE) and the fraction of predictions within a factor of two of observations (FAC2). As well as the CFD models tested in the COST Action, FDS results demonstrate a good agreement with measured concentrations. Furthermore, the metrics assessment indicate that FB and NMSE meet the tolerance acceptable.

Keywords: numerical simulations, atmospheric dispersion, cost ES1006 action, CFD model, cute experiments, wind tunnel data, numerical results

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Authors: Boudene Maamar, Xu Mai

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Optical Intersatellite Links (OISLs) are wireless communications using optical signals to interconnect satellites. It is expected to be the next generation wireless communication technology according to its inherent characteristics like: an increased bandwidth, a high data rate, a data transmission security, an immunity to interference, and an unregulated spectrum etc. Optical space links are the best choice for the classical communication schemes due to its distinctive properties; high frequency, small antenna diameter and lowest transmitted power, which are critical factors to define a space communication. This paper discusses the development of free space technology and analyses the parameters and factors to establish a reliable intersatellite links using an optical signal to exchange data between satellites.

Keywords: optical intersatellite links, optical wireless communications, free space optical communications, next generation wireless communication

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Authors: Valeri Arghutashvili, Mari Gogochuri

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Tourism industry development is one of the key priorities in Georgia, as it has positive influence on economic activities. Its contribution is very important for the different regions, as well as for the national economy. Benefits of the tourism industry include new jobs, service development, and increasing tax revenues, etc. The main aim of this research is to review and analyze the potential of the Georgian tourism industry with its long-term strategy and current challenges. To plan activities in a long-term development, it is required to evaluate several factors on the regional and on the national level. Factors include activities, transportation, services, lodging facilities, infrastructure and institutions. The major research contributions are practical estimates about regional tourism development which plays an important role in the integration process with global markets.

Keywords: regional tourism, tourism industry, tourism in Georgia, tourism benefits

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Authors: Hyeondal Jeong, Yoonjung Baek

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This research examines the effects of positive psychological capital (or PsyCap) on employee’s outcomes (satisfaction, commitment, organizational citizenship behavior, innovation behavior and individual creativity). This study conducted a meta-analysis of articles published in the Republic of Korea. As a result, positive psychological capital has a positive effect on the behavior of employees. Heterogeneity was identified among the studies included in the analysis and the context factors were analyzed; the study proposes contextual factors such as team tenure. The moderating effect of team tenure was not statistically significant. The implications were discussed based on the analysis results.

Keywords: positive psychological capital , satisfaction, commitment, OCB, creativity, meta-analysis

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Authors: Hamed Movahedizadeh, Annuar Md Nassir, Mehdi Karimimalayer, Navid Samimi Sedeh, Ehsan Bagherpour

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The aim of this paper is to evaluate Tehran’s Stock Exchange (TSE) performance regarding with impact of four macroeconomic factors including world crude Oil Price (OP), World Gold Price (GP), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and total Supplied Oil by Iran (SO) from January 2006 to December 2012 that Iran faced with economic and oil sanctions. Iran's exports of crude oil and lease condensate reduced to roughly 1.5 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2012, compared to 2.5 million bbl/d in 2011 due to hard sanctions. Monthly data are collected and subjected to a battery of tests through ordinary least square by EViews7. This study found that gold price and oil price are positively correlated with stock returns while total oil supplied and consumer price index have negative relationship with stock index, however, consumer price index tends to become insignificant in stock index. While gold price and consumer price index have short run relationship with TSE index at 10% of significance level this amount for oil price is significant at 5% and there is no significant short run relationship between supplied oil and Tehran stock returns. Moreover, this study found that all macroeconomic factors have long-run relationship with Tehran Stock Exchange Index.

Keywords: consumer price index, gold price, macroeconomic, oil price, sanction, stock market, supplied oil

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Authors: Haya Salah, Srinivas Sharan

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Healthcare facilities use appointment systems to schedule their appointments and to manage access to their medical services. With the growing demand for outpatient care, it is now imperative to manage physician's time effectively. However, high variation in consultation duration affects the clinical scheduler's ability to estimate the appointment duration and allocate provider time appropriately. Underestimating consultation times can lead to physician's burnout, misdiagnosis, and patient dissatisfaction. On the other hand, appointment durations that are longer than required lead to doctor idle time and fewer patient visits. Therefore, a good estimation of consultation duration has the potential to improve timely access to care, resource utilization, quality of care, and patient satisfaction. Although the literature on factors influencing consultation length abound, little work has done to predict it using based data-driven approaches. Therefore, this study aims to predict consultation duration using supervised machine learning algorithms (ML), which predicts an outcome variable (e.g., consultation) based on potential features that influence the outcome. In particular, ML algorithms learn from a historical dataset without explicitly being programmed and uncover the relationship between the features and outcome variable. A subset of the data used in this study has been obtained from the electronic medical records (EMR) of four different outpatient clinics located in central Pennsylvania, USA. Also, publicly available information on doctor's characteristics such as gender and experience has been extracted from online sources. This research develops three popular ML algorithms (deep learning, random forest, gradient boosting machine) to predict the treatment time required for a patient and conducts a comparative analysis of these algorithms with respect to predictive performance. The findings of this study indicate that ML algorithms have the potential to predict the provider service time with superior accuracy. While the current approach of experience-based appointment duration estimation adopted by the clinic resulted in a mean absolute percentage error of 25.8%, the Deep learning algorithm developed in this study yielded the best performance with a MAPE of 12.24%, followed by gradient boosting machine (13.26%) and random forests (14.71%). Besides, this research also identified the critical variables affecting consultation duration to be patient type (new vs. established), doctor's experience, zip code, appointment day, and doctor's specialty. Moreover, several practical insights are obtained based on the comparative analysis of the ML algorithms. The machine learning approach presented in this study can serve as a decision support tool and could be integrated into the appointment system for effectively managing patient scheduling.

Keywords: clinical decision support system, machine learning algorithms, patient scheduling, prediction models, provider service time

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Authors: Afsaneh Mohammadnejad, Marianne Nygaard, Jan Baumbach, Shuxia Li, Weilong Li, Jesper Lund, Jacob v. B. Hjelmborg, Lene Christensen, Qihua Tan

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Cognitive impairment in the elderly is a key issue affecting the quality of life. Despite a strong genetic background in cognition, only a limited number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been found. These explain a small proportion of the genetic component of cognitive function, thus leaving a large proportion unaccounted for. We hypothesize that one reason for this missing heritability is the misspecified modeling in data analysis concerning phenotype distribution as well as the relationship between SNP dosage and the phenotype of interest. In an attempt to overcome these issues, we introduced a model-free method based on the generalized correlation coefficient (GCC) in a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of cognitive function in twin samples and compared its performance with two popular linear regression models. The GCC-based GWAS identified two genome-wide significant (P-value < 5e-8) SNPs; rs2904650 near ZDHHC2 on chromosome 8 and rs111256489 near CD6 on chromosome 11. The kinship model also detected two genome-wide significant SNPs, rs112169253 on chromosome 4 and rs17417920 on chromosome 7, whereas no genome-wide significant SNPs were found by the linear mixed model (LME). Compared to the linear models, more meaningful biological pathways like GABA receptor activation, ion channel transport, neuroactive ligand-receptor interaction, and the renin-angiotensin system were found to be enriched by SNPs from GCC. The GCC model outperformed the linear regression models by identifying more genome-wide significant genetic variants and more meaningful biological pathways related to cognitive function. Moreover, GCC-based GWAS was robust in handling genetically related twin samples, which is an important feature in handling genetic confounding in association studies.

Keywords: cognition, generalized correlation coefficient, GWAS, twins

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Authors: Aliya Grig, Konstantin Sokolov, Igor Shatalin

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The report describes the methodology for collecting data and building an ML model for determining the personality psychotype using profiling and personality traits methods based on several short messages of a user communicating on an arbitrary topic with a chitchat bot. In the course of the experiments, the minimum amount of text was revealed to confidently determine aspects of personality. Model accuracy - 85%. Users' language of communication is English. AI for a personalized communication with a user based on his mood, personality, and current emotional state. Features investigated during the research: personalized communication; providing empathy; adaptation to a user; predictive analytics. In the report, we describe the processes that captures both structured and unstructured data pertaining to a user in large quantities and diverse forms. This data is then effectively processed through ML tools to construct a knowledge graph and draw inferences regarding users of text messages in a comprehensive manner. Specifically, the system analyzes users' behavioral patterns and predicts future scenarios based on this analysis. As a result of the experiments, we provide for further research on training AI models to be empathetic, creating personalized communication for a user

Keywords: AI, empathetic, chatbot, AI models

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Authors: Stefan Papastefanou

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Artificial intelligence (AI) is an interdisciplinary field of computer science with the aim of creating intelligent machine behavior. Early approaches to AI have been configured to operate in very constrained environments where the behavior of the AI system was previously determined by formal rules. Knowledge was presented as a set of rules that allowed the AI system to determine the results for specific problems; as a structure of if-else rules that could be traversed to find a solution to a particular problem or question. However, such rule-based systems typically have not been able to generalize beyond the knowledge provided. All over the world and especially in IT-heavy industries such as the United States, the European Union, Singapore, and China, machine learning has developed to be an immense asset, and its applications are becoming more and more significant. It has to be examined how such products of machine learning models can and should be protected by IP law and for the purpose of this paper patent law specifically, since it is the IP law regime closest to technical inventions and computing methods in technical applications. Genetic breeding models are currently less popular than recursive neural network method and deep learning, but this approach can be more easily described by referring to the evolution of natural organisms, and with increasing computational power; the genetic breeding method as a subset of the evolutionary algorithms models is expected to be regaining popularity. The research method focuses on patentability (according to the world’s most significant patent law regimes such as China, Singapore, the European Union, and the United States) of AI inventions and machine learning. Questions of the technical nature of the problem to be solved, the inventive step as such, and the question of the state of the art and the associated obviousness of the solution arise in the current patenting processes. Most importantly, and the key focus of this paper is the problem of patenting inventions that themselves are developed through machine learning. The inventor of a patent application must be a natural person or a group of persons according to the current legal situation in most patent law regimes. In order to be considered an 'inventor', a person must actually have developed part of the inventive concept. The mere application of machine learning or an AI algorithm to a particular problem should not be construed as the algorithm that contributes to a part of the inventive concept. However, when machine learning or the AI algorithm has contributed to a part of the inventive concept, there is currently a lack of clarity regarding the ownership of artificially created inventions. Since not only all European patent law regimes but also the Chinese and Singaporean patent law approaches include identical terms, this paper ultimately offers a comparative analysis of the most relevant patent law regimes.

Keywords: algorithms, inventor, genetic breeding models, machine learning, patentability

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Authors: Briony Gray, Glenn Simpson, Hajira Dambha-Miller, Andrew Farmer

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Multimorbidity may be strongly affected by a variety of conditions, factors, and variables requiring higher demands on health and social care services, infrastructure, and expenses. Holding one or more conditions increases one’s risk for development of future conditions; with patients over 65 years old at highest risk. Psychosocial factors such as anxiety and depression are rising exponentially globally, which has been amplified by the COVID19 pandemic. These are highly correlated and predict poorer outcomes when held in coexistence and increase the likelihood of comorbid physical health conditions. While possible future reform of social and healthcare systems may help to alleviate some of these mounting pressures, there remains an urgent need to better understand the potential role health behaviours and psychosocial conditions - such as anxiety and depression – may have on aging populations. Using the UK healthcare scene as a lens for analysis, this study uses big data collected in the UK Longitudinal Study of Aging (ELSA) to examine the role of anxiety and depression in ageing populations (65yrs+). Using logistic regression modelling, results identify the 10 most significant variables correlated with both anxiety and depression from data categorised into the areas of health behaviour, psychosocial, socioeconomic, and life satisfaction (each demonstrated through literature review to be of significance). These are compared with wider global research findings with the aim of better understanding the areas in which social and healthcare reform can support multimorbidity interventions, making suggestions for improved patient-centred care. Scope of future research is outlined, which includes analysis of 59 total multimorbidity variables from the ELSA dataset, going beyond anxiety and depression.

Keywords: multimorbidity, health behaviours, patient centred care, psychosocial factors

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Authors: Tatiana G. Smirnova, Stan G. Benjamin

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Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) land surface model (LSM) was a land-surface component in several generations of operational weather prediction models at the National Center for Environment Prediction (NCEP) at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). It was designed for short-range weather predictions with an emphasis on severe weather and originally was intentionally simple to avoid uncertainties from poorly known parameters. Nevertheless, the RUC LSM, when coupled with the hourly-assimilating atmospheric model, can produce a realistic evolution of time-varying soil moisture and temperature, as well as the evolution of snow cover on the ground surface. This result is possible only if the soil/vegetation/snow component of the coupled weather prediction model has sufficient skill to avoid long-term drift. RUC LSM was first implemented in the operational NCEP Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather model in 1998 and later in the Weather Research Forecasting Model (WRF)-based Rapid Refresh (RAP) and High-resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR). Being available to the international WRF community, it was implemented in operational weather models in Austria, New Zealand, and Switzerland. Based on the feedback from the US weather service offices and the international WRF community and also based on our own validation, RUC LSM has matured over the years. Also, a sea-ice module was added to RUC LSM for surface predictions over the Arctic sea-ice. Other modifications include refinements to the snow model and a more accurate specification of albedo, roughness length, and other surface properties. At present, RUC LSM is being tested in the regional application of the Unified Forecast System (UFS). The next generation UFS-based regional Rapid Refresh FV3 Standalone (RRFS) model will replace operational RAP and HRRR at NCEP. Over time, RUC LSM participated in several international model intercomparison projects to verify its skill using observed atmospheric forcing. The ESM-SnowMIP was the last of these experiments focused on the verification of snow models for open and forested regions. The simulations were performed for ten sites located in different climatic zones of the world forced with observed atmospheric conditions. While most of the 26 participating models have more sophisticated snow parameterizations than in RUC, RUC LSM got a high ranking in simulations of both snow water equivalent and surface temperature. However, ESM-SnowMIP experiment also revealed some issues in the RUC snow model, which will be addressed in this paper. One of them is the treatment of grid cells partially covered with snow. RUC snow module computes energy and moisture budgets of snow-covered and snow-free areas separately by aggregating the solutions at the end of each time step. Such treatment elevates the importance of computing in the model snow cover fraction. Improvements to the original simplistic threshold-based approach have been implemented and tested both offline and in the coupled weather model. The detailed description of changes to the snow cover fraction and other modifications to RUC soil and snow parameterizations will be described in this paper.

Keywords: land-surface models, weather prediction, hydrology, boundary-layer processes

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Authors: Soma Chatterjee, I. Das

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In the present study, we have investigated the structural, electrical and magneto-transport properties of polycrystalline and nanocrystalline Gd0.5Sr0.5MnO3 compounds. The variation of transport properties is modified by tuning the grain size of the material. In the high-temperature semiconducting region, temperature-dependent resistivity data can be well explained by the non-adiabatic small polaron hopping (SPH) mechanism. In addition, the resistivity data for all compounds in the low-temperature paramagnetic region can also be well explained by the variable range hopping (VRH) model. The parameters obtained from SPH and VRH mechanisms are found to be reasonable. In the case of nanocrystalline compounds, there is an overlapping temperature range where both SPH and VRH models are valid simultaneously, and a new conduction mechanism - variable range hopping of small polaron s(VR-SPH) is satisfactorily valid for the whole temperature range of these compounds. However, for the polycrystalline compound, the overlapping temperature region between VRH and SPH models does not exist and the VR-SPH mechanism is not valid here. Thus, polarons play a leading role in selecting different conduction mechanisms in different temperature ranges.

Keywords: electrical resistivity, manganite, small polaron hopping, variable range hopping, variable range of small polaron hopping

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Authors: Ainura Tursunalieva, Irene Hudson

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Continuous improvement of both the quality and safety of health care is an important goal in Australia and internationally. The intensive care unit (ICU) receives patients with a wide variety of and severity of illnesses. Accurately identifying patients at risk of developing complications or dying is crucial to increasing healthcare efficiency. Thus, it is essential for clinicians and researchers to have a robust framework capable of evaluating the risk profile of a patient. ICU scoring systems provide such a framework. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III and the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II are ICU scoring systems frequently used for assessing the severity of acute illness. These scoring systems collect multiple risk factors for each patient including physiological measurements then render the assessment outcomes of individual risk factors into a single numerical value. A higher score is related to a more severe patient condition. Furthermore, the Mortality Probability Model II uses logistic regression based on independent risk factors to predict a patient’s probability of mortality. An important overlooked limitation of SAPS II and MPM II is that they do not, to date, include interaction terms between a patient’s vital signs. This is a prominent oversight as it is likely there is an interplay among vital signs. The co-existence of certain conditions may pose a greater health risk than when these conditions exist independently. One barrier to including such interaction terms in predictive models is the dimensionality issue as it becomes difficult to use variable selection. We propose an innovative scoring system which takes into account a dependence structure among patient’s vital signs, such as systolic and diastolic blood pressures, heart rate, pulse interval, and peripheral oxygen saturation. Copulas will capture the dependence among normally distributed and skewed variables as some of the vital sign distributions are skewed. The estimated dependence parameter will then be incorporated into the traditional scoring systems to adjust the points allocated for the individual vital sign measurements. The same dependence parameter will also be used to create an alternative copula-based model for predicting a patient’s probability of mortality. The new copula-based approach will accommodate not only a patient’s trajectories of vital signs but also the joint dependence probabilities among the vital signs. We hypothesise that this approach will produce more stable assessments and lead to more time efficient and accurate predictions. We will use two data sets: (1) 250 ICU patients admitted once to the Chui Regional Hospital (Kyrgyzstan) and (2) 37 ICU patients’ agitation-sedation profiles collected by the Hunter Medical Research Institute (Australia). Both the traditional scoring approach and our copula-based approach will be evaluated using the Brier score to indicate overall model performance, the concordance (or c) statistic to indicate the discriminative ability (or area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve), and goodness-of-fit statistics for calibration. We will also report discrimination and calibration values and establish visualization of the copulas and high dimensional regions of risk interrelating two or three vital signs in so-called higher dimensional ROCs.

Keywords: copula, intensive unit scoring system, ROC curves, vital sign dependence

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Authors: Kenneth O. Otasowie, Matthew Ikuabe, Clinton Aigbavboa, Ayodeji Oke

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Construction project cost are not only made up of production costs. This cost comprises of many other elements such as the preparation of a bidding document, cost estimations, drafting contractual agreements and monitoring that contractual obligations are met. Several studies have stressed the need for transaction costs (TC) to be defined in a way that covers all phases of a project and not only the pre-contract phase. Hence, this study aims to appraise transaction cost in South African (SA) construction projects by assessing what constitutes transaction cost, influencing factors and possible optimisation measures. A survey design was adopted. A total number of eighty (80) questionnaires were administered to quantity surveyors, procurement managers and project managers in Guateng Province, SA and seventy-two (72) were returned and found suitable for analysis. Collected data was analysed using percentage, mean item score, standard deviation, one-sample t-test. The findings show that external technical interaction, uncertainty, human factors are the most significant constituents of TC in SA, while technical competency, experience in similar project type and project characteristics are the leading influencing factors. Furthermore, understanding project characteristics, clear communication and technically competent project teams are most of the significant measures for optimising TC in SA construction projects. Therefore, this study recommends that a competent project team and a clear communication are fundamental to proper management of TC in SA construction projects.

Keywords: construction projects, project cost, South Africa, transaction cost

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Authors: Faruk Ozdemir, Roy Kalawsky, Peter Hubbard

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Accurate estimation of RUL provides a basis for effective predictive maintenance, reducing unexpected downtime for industrial equipment. However, while models such as the Random Forest have effective predictive capabilities, they are the so-called ‘black box’ models, where interpretability is at a threshold to make critical diagnostic decisions involved in industries related to aviation. The purpose of this work is to present a prognostic framework that embeds Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) techniques in order to provide essential transparency in Machine Learning methods' decision-making mechanisms based on sensor data, with the objective of procuring actionable insights for the aviation industry. Sensor readings have been gathered from critical equipment such as turbofan jet engine and landing gear, and the prediction of the RUL is done by a Random Forest model. It involves steps such as data gathering, feature engineering, model training, and evaluation. These critical components’ datasets are independently trained and evaluated by the models. While suitable predictions are served, their performance metrics are reasonably good; such complex models, however obscure reasoning for the predictions made by them and may even undermine the confidence of the decision-maker or the maintenance teams. This is followed by global explanations using SHAP and local explanations using LIME in the second phase to bridge the gap in reliability within industrial contexts. These tools analyze model decisions, highlighting feature importance and explaining how each input variable affects the output. This dual approach offers a general comprehension of the overall model behavior and detailed insight into specific predictions. The proposed framework, in its third component, incorporates the techniques of causal analysis in the form of Granger causality tests in order to move beyond correlation toward causation. This will not only allow the model to predict failures but also present reasons, from the key sensor features linked to possible failure mechanisms to relevant personnel. The causality between sensor behaviors and equipment failures creates much value for maintenance teams due to better root cause identification and effective preventive measures. This step contributes to the system being more explainable. Surrogate Several simple models, including Decision Trees and Linear Models, can be used in yet another stage to approximately represent the complex Random Forest model. These simpler models act as backups, replicating important jobs of the original model's behavior. If the feature explanations obtained from the surrogate model are cross-validated with the primary model, the insights derived would be more reliable and provide an intuitive sense of how the input variables affect the predictions. We then create an iterative explainable feedback loop, where the knowledge learned from the explainability methods feeds back into the training of the models. This feeds into a cycle of continuous improvement both in model accuracy and interpretability over time. By systematically integrating new findings, the model is expected to adapt to changed conditions and further develop its prognosis capability. These components are then presented to the decision-makers through the development of a fully transparent condition monitoring and alert system. The system provides a holistic tool for maintenance operations by leveraging RUL predictions, feature importance scores, persistent sensor threshold values, and autonomous alert mechanisms. Since the system will provide explanations for the predictions given, along with active alerts, the maintenance personnel can make informed decisions on their end regarding correct interventions to extend the life of the critical machinery.

Keywords: predictive maintenance, explainable artificial intelligence, prognostic, RUL, machine learning, turbofan engines, C-MAPSS dataset

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