Search results for: biochemical approaches
1498 Juvenile Justice Reforms for the 21st Century: Promising Approaches in Bangladesh
Authors: Nahid Ferdousi
Abstract:
Juvenile justice is a key component of the child rights to keep the best interest and completely different from criminal justice. After independence of Bangladesh in 1971, the Children Act 1974 and the Children Rules 1976 were considered as the basic law for juvenile justice which written before many international instruments on children’s rights came into existence, did not align with the international mandate set by those instruments. These Acts were not really child rights-based and modern concept such as diversion, restorative justice and community-based rehabilitation has not developed accordingly. In this backdrop, government has enacted the new Children Act 2013 and introduced extensive reforms to the juvenile justice system in Bangladesh. The Act has been adopted with the provisions for child-friendly juvenile courts in each district and different kinds of child-oriented practices in a number of settings, such as, child affairs police officer, probation officer, national child welfare board, diversion, alternative preventive measures on the basis of international principles. Prior to the Act, there had been a number of High Court rulings which considered the international standards for juvenile justice. But the recent reforms to juvenile justice system hail a new commitment to the country’s international obligations to its children and a change in the philosophy guiding the treatment of offender children. This is high time to create an effective juvenile justice system for the 21st century in Bangladesh by the proper implementation of the Children Act 2013. Additionally, the new Children Rules should be enacted and juvenile courts along with correctional institutions should be established in each district in Bangladesh. This study assesses the juvenile justice reforms in Bangladesh over the five decades (1974-2014) and focuses on changes that will improve the system as a whole and enable us to better achieve the ends of fair juvenile justice.Keywords: Juvenile justice reforms, international obligations, child-oriented practices, commitment of the state
Procedia PDF Downloads 4261497 Approaches to Tsunami Mitigation and Prevention: Explaining Architectural Strategies for Reducing Urban Risk
Authors: Hedyeh Gamini, Hadi Abdus
Abstract:
Tsunami, as a natural disaster, is composed of waves that are usually caused by severe movements at the sea floor. Although tsunami and its consequences cannot be prevented in any way, by examining past tsunamis and extracting key points on how to deal with this incident and learning from it, a positive step can be taken to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements and reduce the risk of this phenomenon in architecture and urbanism. The method is reviewing and has examined the documents written and valid internet sites related to managing and reducing the vulnerability of human settlements in face of tsunami. This paper has explored the tsunamis in Indonesia (2004), Sri Lanka (2004) and Japan (2011), and of the study objectives has been understanding how they dealt with tsunami and extracting key points, and the lessons from them in terms of reduction of vulnerability of human settlements in dealing with the tsunami. Finally, strategies to prevent and reduce the vulnerability of communities at risk of tsunamis have been offered in terms of architecture and urban planning. According to what is obtained from the study of the recent tsunamis, the authorities' quality of dealing with them, how to manage the crisis and the manner of their construction, it can be concluded that to reduce the vulnerability of human settlements against tsunami, there are generally four ways that are: 1-Construction of tall buildings with opening on the first floor so that water can flow easily under and the direction of the building should be in a way that water passes easily from the side. 2- The construction of multi-purpose centers, which could be used as vertical evacuation during accidents. 3- Constructing buildings in core forms with diagonal orientation of the coastline, 4- Building physical barriers (natural and synthetic) such as water dams, mounds of earth, sea walls and creating forestsKeywords: tsunami, architecture, reducing vulnerability, human settlements, urbanism
Procedia PDF Downloads 3961496 Re-Imagining Physical Education Teacher Education in a South African Higher Education Institution
Authors: C. F. Jones Couto, L. C. Motlhaolwa, K. Williams
Abstract:
This article explores the re-imagining of physical education teacher education in South African higher education. Utilising student reflections from a physical education practical module, valuable insights into student experiences were obtained about the current physical education pedagogical approaches and potential areas for improvement. The traditional teaching model of physical education is based on the idea of teaching students a variety of sports and physical activities. However, this model has been shown to be ineffective in promoting lifelong physical activity. The modern world demands a more holistic approach to health and wellness. Data was collected using the arts-based collage method in combination with written group reflections from 139 second-year undergraduate physical education students. This study employed thematic analysis methods to gain a comprehensive understanding of the data and extract a broader perspective on the students' experiences. The study aimed to empower student teachers to learn, think, and act creatively within the many educational models that impact their experience, contributing to the ongoing efforts of re-imagining physical education teacher education in South African higher education. This research is significant as the students' valuable insights reflected that they can think and work across disciplines. Sustainable development goals and graduate attributes are important concepts that can contribute to student preparation. Using a multi-model educational approach based on the cultural-historical theory, higher education institutions can help develop graduate attributes that will prepare students for success in the workplace and life.Keywords: holistic education, graduate attributes, physical education, teacher education, student experiences, sustainable development goals
Procedia PDF Downloads 751495 Machine Learning-Based Techniques for Detecting and Mitigating Cyber-attacks on Automatic Generation Control in Smart Grids
Authors: Sami M. Alshareef
Abstract:
The rapid growth of smart grid technology has brought significant advancements to the power industry. However, with the increasing interconnectivity and reliance on information and communication technologies, smart grids have become vulnerable to cyber-attacks, posing significant threats to the reliable operation of power systems. Among the critical components of smart grids, the Automatic Generation Control (AGC) system plays a vital role in maintaining the balance between generation and load demand. Therefore, protecting the AGC system from cyber threats is of paramount importance to maintain grid stability and prevent disruptions. Traditional security measures often fall short in addressing sophisticated and evolving cyber threats, necessitating the exploration of innovative approaches. Machine learning, with its ability to analyze vast amounts of data and learn patterns, has emerged as a promising solution to enhance AGC system security. Therefore, this research proposal aims to address the challenges associated with detecting and mitigating cyber-attacks on AGC in smart grids by leveraging machine learning techniques on automatic generation control of two-area power systems. By utilizing historical data, the proposed system will learn the normal behavior patterns of AGC and identify deviations caused by cyber-attacks. Once an attack is detected, appropriate mitigation strategies will be employed to safeguard the AGC system. The outcomes of this research will provide power system operators and administrators with valuable insights into the vulnerabilities of AGC systems in smart grids and offer practical solutions to enhance their cyber resilience.Keywords: machine learning, cyber-attacks, automatic generation control, smart grid
Procedia PDF Downloads 861494 Strategies and Approaches for Curriculum Development and Training of Faculty in Cybersecurity Education
Authors: Lucy Tsado
Abstract:
As cybercrime and cyberattacks continue to increase, the need to respond will follow suit. When cybercrimes occur, the duty to respond sometimes falls on law enforcement. However, criminal justice students are not taught concepts in cybersecurity and digital forensics. There is, therefore, an urgent need for many more institutions to begin teaching cybersecurity and related courses to social science students especially criminal justice students. However, many faculty in universities, colleges, and high schools are not equipped to teach these courses or do not have the knowledge and resources to teach important concepts in cybersecurity or digital forensics to criminal justice students. This research intends to develop curricula and training programs to equip faculty with the skills to meet this need. There is a current call to involve non-technical fields to fill the cybersecurity skills gap, according to experts. There is a general belief among non-technical fields that cybersecurity education is only attainable within computer science and technologically oriented fields. As seen from current calls, this is not entirely the case. Transitioning into the field is possible through curriculum development, training, certifications, internships and apprenticeships, and competitions. There is a need to identify how a cybersecurity eco-system can be created at a university to encourage/start programs that will lead to an interest in cybersecurity education as well as attract potential students. A short-term strategy can address this problem through curricula development, while a long-term strategy will address developing training faculty to teach cybersecurity and digital forensics. Therefore this research project addresses this overall problem in two parts, through curricula development for the criminal justice discipline; and training of faculty in criminal justice to teaching the important concepts of cybersecurity and digital forensics.Keywords: cybersecurity education, criminal justice, curricula development, nontechnical cybersecurity, cybersecurity, digital forensics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1051493 The Current Ways of Thinking Mild Traumatic Brain Injury and Clinical Practice in a Trauma Hospital: A Pilot Study
Authors: P. Donnelly, G. Mitchell
Abstract:
Traumatic Brain Injury (TBI) is a major contributor to the global burden of disease; despite its ubiquity, there is significant variation in diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment between clinicians. This study aims to examine the spectrum of approaches that currently exist at a Level 1 Trauma Centre in Australasia by surveying Emergency Physicians and Neurosurgeons on those aspects of mTBI. A pilot survey of 17 clinicians (Neurosurgeons, Emergency Physicians, and others who manage patients with mTBI) at a Level 1 Trauma Centre in Brisbane, Australia, was conducted. The objective of this study was to examine the importance these clinicians place on various elements in their approach to the diagnosis, prognostication, and treatment of mTBI. The data were summarised, and the descriptive statistics reported. Loss of consciousness and post-traumatic amnesia were rated as the most important signs or symptoms in diagnosing mTBI (median importance of 8). MRI was the most important imaging modality in diagnosing mTBI (median importance of 7). ‘Number of the Previous TBIs’ and Intracranial Injury on Imaging’ were rated as the most important elements for prognostication (median importance of 9). Education and reassurance were rated as the most important modality for treating mTBI (median importance of 7). There was a statistically insignificant variation between the specialties as to the importance they place on each of these components. In this Australian tertiary trauma center, there appears to be variation in how clinicians approach mTBI. This study is underpowered to state whether this is between clinicians within a specialty or a trend between specialties. This variation is worthwhile in investigating as a step toward a unified approach to diagnosing, prognosticating, and treating this common pathology.Keywords: mild traumatic brain injury, adult, clinician, survey
Procedia PDF Downloads 1311492 Beyond Diagnosis: Innovative Instructional Methods for Children with Multiple Disabilities
Authors: Patricia Kopetz
Abstract:
Too often our youngest children with disabilities receive diagnostic labels and accompanying treatment plans based upon perceptions that the children are of limited aptitude and/or ambition. However, children of varied-ability levels who are diagnosed with ‘multiple disabilities,’ can participate and excel in school-based instruction that aligns with their desires, interests, and fortitude – criteria components not foretold by scores on standardized assessments. The paper represents theoretical work in Special Education Innovative Instruction, and includes presenting research materials, some developed by the author herself. The majority of students with disabilities are now served in general education settings in the United States, embracing inclusive practices in our schools. ‘There is now a stronger call for special education to step up and improve efficiency, implement evidence-based practices, and provide greater accountability on key performance indicators that support successful academic and post-school outcomes for students with disabilities.’ For example, in the United States, the Office of Special Education Programs (OSEP) is focusing on results-driven indicators to improve outcomes for students with disabilities. School personnel are appreciating the implications of research-driven approaches for students diagnosed with multiple disabilities, and aim to align their practices toward such focus. The paper presented will provide updates on current theoretical principles and perspectives, and explore advancements in latest, evidence-based and results-driven instructional practices that can motivate children with multiple disabilities to advance their skills and engage in learning activities that as nonconventional, innovative, and proven successful.Keywords: childhood special education, educational technology , innovative instruction, multiple disabilities
Procedia PDF Downloads 2501491 The Cultural Adaptation of a Social and Emotional Learning Program for an Intervention in Saudi Arabia’s Preschools
Authors: Malak Alqaydhi
Abstract:
A problem in the Saudi Arabia education system is that there is a lack of curriculum- based Social, emotional learning (SEL) teaching practices with the pedagogical concept of SEL yet to be practiced in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Furthermore, voices of teachers and parents have not been captured regarding the use of SEL, particularly in preschools. The importance of this research is to help determine, with the input of teachers and mothers of preschoolers, the efficacy of a culturally adapted SEL program. The purpose of this research is to determine the most appropriate SEL intervention method to appropriately apply in the cultural context of the Saudi preschool classroom setting. The study will use a mixed method exploratory sequential research design, applying qualitative and quantitative approaches including semi-structured interviews with teachers and parents of preschoolers and an experimental research approach. The research will proceed in four phases beginning with a series of interviews with Saudi preschool teachers and mothers, whose voices and perceptions will help guide the second phase of selection and adaptation of a suitable SEL preschool program. The third phase will be the implementation of the intervention by the researcher in the preschool classroom environment, which will be facilitated by the researcher’s cultural proficiency and practical experience in Saudi Arabia. The fourth and final phase will be an evaluation to assess the effectiveness of the trialled SEL among the preschool student participants. The significance of this research stems from its contribution to knowledge about SEL in culturally appropriate Saudi preschools and the opportunity to support initiatives for Saudi early childhood educators to consider implementing SEL programs. The findings from the study may be useful to inform the Saudi Ministry of Education and its curriculum designers about SEL programs, which could be beneficial to trial more widely in the Saudi preschool curriculum.Keywords: social emotional learning, preschool children, saudi Arabia, child behavior
Procedia PDF Downloads 1581490 Off-Shore Wind Turbines: The Issue of Soil Plugging during Pile Installation
Authors: Mauro Iannazzone, Carmine D'Agostino
Abstract:
Off-shore wind turbines are currently considered as a reliable source of renewable energy Worldwide and especially in the UK. Most of the operational off-shore wind turbines located in shallow waters (i.e. < 30 m) are supported on monopiles. Monopiles are open-ended steel tubes with diameter ranging between 4 to 6 m. It is expected that future off-shore wind farms will be located in water depths as high as 70 m. Therefore, alternative foundation arrangements are needed. Foundations for off-shore structures normally consist of open-ended piles driven into the soil by means of impact hammers. During pile installation, the soil inside the pile may be mobilized by the increasing shear strength such as to prevent more soil from entering the pile. This phenomenon is known as soil plugging, and represents an important issue as it may change significantly the driving resistance of open-ended piles. In fact, if the plugging formation is unexpected, the installation may require more powerful and more expensive hammers. Engineers need to estimate whether the driven pile will be installed in a plugged or unplugged mode. As a consequence, a prediction of the degree of soil plugging is required in order to correctly predict the drivability of the pile. This work presents a brief review of the state-of-the-art of pile driving and approaches used to predict formation of soil plugs. In addition, a novel analytical approach is proposed, which is based on the vertical equilibrium of a plugged pile. Differently from previous studies, this research takes into account the enhancement of the stress within the soil plug. Finally, the work presents and discusses a series of experimental tests, which are carried out on small-scale models piles to validate the analytical solution.Keywords: off-shore wind turbines, pile installation, soil plugging, wind energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 3131489 Application of Bacteriophages as Natural Antibiotics in Aquaculture
Authors: Chamilani Nikapitiya, Mahanama De Zoysa, Jehee Lee
Abstract:
Most of the bacterial diseases are associated with high mortalities in aquaculture species and causing huge economic losses. Different approaches have been taken to prevent or control of bacterial diseases including use of vaccines, probiotics, chemotherapy, water quality management, etc. Antibiotics are widely applying as chemotherapy to control bacterial diseases, however, it has been shown that frequent use of antibiotics is favored to develop multi-drug resistance bacteria. Therefore, phages and phage encoded lytic proteins are known to be one of the most promising alternatives for antibiotics to avoid the emergence of antibiotic-resistant bacteria. We isolated and characterized the two lytic phages, namely pAh-1 and pAs-1 against pathogenic Aeromonas hydrophila and Aeromonas salmonicida, respectively. Morphological characteristics were analyzed by Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and host strain specificities were tested with Aeromonas and other closely related bacterial strains. TEM analysis revealed that both pAh-1 and pAsm-1 are composed of an icosahedral head and a segmented tail, and we suggest that, they are new members of Myoviridae family. Genome sizes of isolated phages were estimated by restriction enzyme digestion of genomic DNA using selected endonucleases followed by agarose gel electrophoresis. Estimated genome size of pAh-1 and pAs-1 were approximately 64 Kbp and 120 Kbp, respectively. Both pAh-1 and pAs-1 have shown narrow host specificity. Moreover, protective effects of phage therapy against fish pathogenic A. hydrophila were investigated in zebrafish model. The survival rate was 40% higher when zebrafish received intra-peritoneal injection (i.p.) of pAh-1 were simultaneously challenge A. hydrophila (2 x 106 CFU/fish) compared to that without phage treatment. Overall results suggest that both pAh-1 and pAs-1 can be used as a potential phage therapy to control Aeromonas infections in aquaculture.Keywords: Aeromonas infections, antibiotic resistance, bacteriophage, bio-control, lytic phage
Procedia PDF Downloads 1951488 Delicate Balance between Cardiac Stress and Protection: Role of Mitochondrial Proteins
Authors: Zuzana Tatarkova, Ivana Pilchova, Michal Cibulka, Martin Kolisek, Peter Racay, Peter Kaplan
Abstract:
Introduction: Normal functioning of mitochondria is crucial for cardiac performance. Mitochondria undergo mitophagy and biogenesis, and mitochondrial proteins are subject to extensive post-translational modifications. The state of mitochondrial homeostasis reflects overall cellular fitness and longevity. Perturbed mitochondria produce less ATP, release greater amounts of reactive molecules, and are more prone to apoptosis. Therefore mitochondrial turnover is an integral aspect of quality control in which dysfunctional mitochondria are selectively eliminated through mitophagy. Currently, the progressive deterioration of physiological functions is seen as accumulation of modified/damaged proteins with limiting regenerative ability and disturbance of such affected protein-protein communication throughout aging in myocardial cells. Methodologies: For our study was used immunohistochemistry, biochemical methods: spectrophotometry, western blotting, immunodetection as well as more sophisticated 2D electrophoresis and mass spectrometry for evaluation protein-protein interactions and specific post-translational modification. Results and Discussion: Mitochondrial stress response to reactive species was evaluated as electron transport chain (ETC) complexes, redox-active molecules, and their possible communication. Protein-protein interactions revealed a strong linkage between age and ETC protein subunits. Redox state was strongly affected in senescent mitochondria with shift in favor of more pro-oxidizing condition within cardiomyocytes. Acute myocardial ischemia and ischemia-reperfusion (IR) injury affected ETC complexes I, II and IV with no change in complex III. Ischemia induced decrease in total antioxidant capacity, MnSOD, GSH and catalase activity with recovery in some extent during reperfusion. While MnSOD protein content was higher in IR group, activity returned to 95% of control. Nitric oxide is one of the biological molecules that can out compete MnSOD for superoxide and produce peroxynitrite. This process is faster than dismutation and led to the 10-fold higher production of nitrotyrosine after IR injury in adult with higher protection in senescent ones. 2D protein profiling revealed 140 mitochondrial proteins, 12 of them with significant changes after IR injury and 36 individual nitrotyrosine-modified proteins further identified by mass spectrometry. Linking these two groups, 5 proteins were altered after IR as well as nitrated, but only one showed massive nitration per lowering content of protein after IR injury in adult. Conclusions: Senescent cells have greater proportion of protein content, which might be modulated by several post-translational modifications. If these protein modifications are connected to functional consequences and protein-protein interactions are revealed, link may lead to the solution. Assume all together, dysfunctional proteostasis can play a causative role and restoration of protein homeostasis machinery is protective against aging and possibly age-related disorders. This work was supported by the project VEGA 1/0018/18 and by project 'Competence Center for Research and Development in the field of Diagnostics and Therapy of Oncological diseases', ITMS: 26220220153, co-financed from EU sources.Keywords: aging heart, mitochondria, proteomics, redox state
Procedia PDF Downloads 1691487 On the Solution of Boundary Value Problems Blended with Hybrid Block Methods
Authors: Kizito Ugochukwu Nwajeri
Abstract:
This paper explores the application of hybrid block methods for solving boundary value problems (BVPs), which are prevalent in various fields such as science, engineering, and applied mathematics. Traditionally, numerical approaches such as finite difference and shooting methods, often encounter challenges related to stability and convergence, particularly in the context of complex and nonlinear BVPs. To address these challenges, we propose a hybrid block method that integrates features from both single-step and multi-step techniques. This method allows for the simultaneous computation of multiple solution points while maintaining high accuracy. Specifically, we employ a combination of polynomial interpolation and collocation strategies to derive a system of equations that captures the behavior of the solution across the entire domain. By directly incorporating boundary conditions into the formulation, we enhance the stability and convergence properties of the numerical solution. Furthermore, we introduce an adaptive step-size mechanism to optimize performance based on the local behavior of the solution. This adjustment allows the method to respond effectively to variations in solution behavior, improving both accuracy and computational efficiency. Numerical tests on a variety of boundary value problems demonstrate the effectiveness of the hybrid block methods. These tests showcase significant improvements in accuracy and computational efficiency compared to conventional methods, indicating that our approach is robust and versatile. The results suggest that this hybrid block method is suitable for a wide range of applications in real-world problems, offering a promising alternative to existing numerical techniques.Keywords: hybrid block methods, boundary value problem, polynomial interpolation, adaptive step-size control, collocation methods
Procedia PDF Downloads 371486 Multivariate Data Analysis for Automatic Atrial Fibrillation Detection
Authors: Zouhair Haddi, Stephane Delliaux, Jean-Francois Pons, Ismail Kechaf, Jean-Claude De Haro, Mustapha Ouladsine
Abstract:
Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been considered as the most common cardiac arrhythmia, and a major public health burden associated with significant morbidity and mortality. Nowadays, telemedical approaches targeting cardiac outpatients situate AF among the most challenged medical issues. The automatic, early, and fast AF detection is still a major concern for the healthcare professional. Several algorithms based on univariate analysis have been developed to detect atrial fibrillation. However, the published results do not show satisfactory classification accuracy. This work was aimed at resolving this shortcoming by proposing multivariate data analysis methods for automatic AF detection. Four publicly-accessible sets of clinical data (AF Termination Challenge Database, MIT-BIH AF, Normal Sinus Rhythm RR Interval Database, and MIT-BIH Normal Sinus Rhythm Databases) were used for assessment. All time series were segmented in 1 min RR intervals window and then four specific features were calculated. Two pattern recognition methods, i.e., Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Learning Vector Quantization (LVQ) neural network were used to develop classification models. PCA, as a feature reduction method, was employed to find important features to discriminate between AF and Normal Sinus Rhythm. Despite its very simple structure, the results show that the LVQ model performs better on the analyzed databases than do existing algorithms, with high sensitivity and specificity (99.19% and 99.39%, respectively). The proposed AF detection holds several interesting properties, and can be implemented with just a few arithmetical operations which make it a suitable choice for telecare applications.Keywords: atrial fibrillation, multivariate data analysis, automatic detection, telemedicine
Procedia PDF Downloads 2691485 A Semidefinite Model to Quantify Dynamic Forces in the Powertrain of Torque Regulated Bascule Bridge Machineries
Authors: Kodo Sektani, Apostolos Tsouvalas, Andrei Metrikine
Abstract:
The reassessment of existing movable bridges in The Netherlands has created the need for acceptance/rejection criteria to assess whether the machineries are meet certain design demands. However, the existing design code defines a different limit state design, meant for new machineries which is based on a simple linear spring-mass model. Observations show that existing bridges do not confirm the model predictions. In fact, movable bridges are nonlinear systems consisting of mechanical components, such as, gears, electric motors and brakes. Next to that, each movable bridge is characterized by a unique set of parameters. However, in the existing code various variables that describe the physical characteristics of the bridge are neglected or replaced by partial factors. For instance, the damping ratio ζ, which is different for drawbridges compared to bascule bridges, is taken as a constant for all bridge types. In this paper, a model is developed that overcomes some of the limitations of existing modelling approaches to capture the dynamics of the powertrain of a class of bridge machineries First, a semidefinite dynamic model is proposed, which accounts for stiffness, damping, and some additional variables of the physical system, which are neglected by the code, such as nonlinear braking torques. The model gives an upper bound of the peak forces/torques occurring in the powertrain during emergency braking. Second, a discrete nonlinear dynamic model is discussed, with realistic motor torque characteristics during normal operation. This model succeeds to accurately predict the full time history of the occurred stress state of the opening and closing cycle for fatigue purposes.Keywords: Dynamics of movable bridges, Bridge machinery, Powertrains, Torque measurements
Procedia PDF Downloads 1571484 Sonodynamic Activity of Porphyrins-SWCNT
Authors: F. Bosca, F. Foglietta, F. Turci, E. Calcio Gaudino, S. Mana, F. Dosio, R. Canaparo, L. Serpe, A. Barge
Abstract:
In recent years, medical science has improved chemotherapy, radiation therapy and adjuvant therapy and has developed newer targeted therapies as well as refining surgical techniques for removing cancer. However, the chances of surviving the disease depend greatly on the type and location of the cancer and the extent of the disease at the start of treatment. Moreover, mainstream forms of cancer treatment have side effects which range from the unpleasant to the fatal. Therefore, the continuation of progress in anti-cancer therapy may depend on placing emphasis on other existing but less thoroughly investigated therapeutic approaches such as Sonodynamic Therapy (SDT). SDT is based on the local activation of a so called 'sonosensitizer', a molecule able to be excited by ultrasound, the radical production as a consequence of its relaxation processes and cell death due to different mechanisms induced by radical production. The present work deals with synthesis, characterization and preliminary in vitro test of Single Walled Carbon Nanotubes (SWCNT) decorated with porphyrins and biological vectors. The SWCNT’s surface was modified exploiting 1, 3-dipolar cycloaddition or Dies Alder reactions. For this purpose, different porphyrins scaffolds were ad-hoc synthesized using also non-conventional techniques. To increase cellular specificity of porphyrin-conjugated SWCNTs and to improve their ability to be suspended in aqueous solution, the modified nano-tubes were grafted with suitable glutamine or hyaluronic acid derivatives. These nano-sized sonosensitizers were characterized by several methodologies and tested in vitro on different cancer cell lines.Keywords: sonodynamic therapy, porphyrins synthesis and modification, SWNCT grafting, hyaluronic acid, anti-cancer treatment
Procedia PDF Downloads 3901483 Energy Retrofitting Application Research to Achieve Energy Efficiency in Hot-Arid Climates in Residential Buildings: A Case Study of Saudi Arabia
Authors: A. Felimban, A. Prieto, U. Knaack, T. Klein
Abstract:
This study aims to present an overview of recent research in building energy-retrofitting strategy applications and analyzing them within the context of hot arid climate regions which is in this case study represented by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The main goal of this research is to do an analytical study of recent research approaches to show where the primary gap in knowledge exists and outline which possible strategies are available that can be applied in future research. Also, the paper focuses on energy retrofitting strategies at a building envelop level. The study is limited to specific measures within the hot arid climate region. Scientific articles were carefully chosen as they met the expression criteria, such as retrofitting, energy-retrofitting, hot-arid, energy efficiency, residential buildings, which helped narrow the research scope. Then the papers were explored through descriptive analysis and justified results within the Saudi context in order to draw an overview of future opportunities from the field of study for the last two decades. The conclusions of the analysis of the recent research confirmed that the field of study had a research shortage on investigating actual applications and testing of newly introduced energy efficiency applications, lack of energy cost feasibility studies and there was also a lack of public awareness. In terms of research methods, it was found that simulation software was a major instrument used in energy retrofitting application research. The main knowledge gaps that were identified included the need for certain research regarding actual application testing; energy retrofitting strategies application feasibility; the lack of research on the importance of how strategies apply first followed by the user acceptance of developed scenarios.Keywords: energy efficiency, energy retrofitting, hot arid, Saudi Arabia
Procedia PDF Downloads 1251482 Application of an Analytical Model to Obtain Daily Flow Duration Curves for Different Hydrological Regimes in Switzerland
Authors: Ana Clara Santos, Maria Manuela Portela, Bettina Schaefli
Abstract:
This work assesses the performance of an analytical model framework to generate daily flow duration curves, FDCs, based on climatic characteristics of the catchments and on their streamflow recession coefficients. According to the analytical model framework, precipitation is considered to be a stochastic process, modeled as a marked Poisson process, and recession is considered to be deterministic, with parameters that can be computed based on different models. The analytical model framework was tested for three case studies with different hydrological regimes located in Switzerland: pluvial, snow-dominated and glacier. For that purpose, five time intervals were analyzed (the four meteorological seasons and the civil year) and two developments of the model were tested: one considering a linear recession model and the other adopting a nonlinear recession model. Those developments were combined with recession coefficients obtained from two different approaches: forward and inverse estimation. The performance of the analytical framework when considering forward parameter estimation is poor in comparison with the inverse estimation for both, linear and nonlinear models. For the pluvial catchment, the inverse estimation shows exceptional good results, especially for the nonlinear model, clearing suggesting that the model has the ability to describe FDCs. For the snow-dominated and glacier catchments the seasonal results are better than the annual ones suggesting that the model can describe streamflows in those conditions and that future efforts should focus on improving and combining seasonal curves instead of considering single annual ones.Keywords: analytical streamflow distribution, stochastic process, linear and non-linear recession, hydrological modelling, daily discharges
Procedia PDF Downloads 1641481 Transition From Economic Growth-Energy Use to Green Growth-Green Energy Towards Environmental Quality: Evidence from Africa Using Econometric Approaches
Authors: Jackson Niyongabo
Abstract:
This study addresses a notable gap in the existing literature on the relationship between energy consumption, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions, particularly within the African context. While numerous studies have explored these dynamics globally and regionally across various development levels, few have delved into the nuances of regions and income levels specific to African countries. Furthermore, the evaluation of the interplay between green growth policies, green energy technologies, and their impact on environmental quality has been underexplored. This research aims to fill these gaps by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the transition from conventional economic growth and energy consumption to a paradigm of green growth coupled with green energy utilization across the African continent from 1980 to 2018. The study is structured into three main parts: an empirical examination of the long-term effects of energy intensity, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on CO₂ emissions across diverse African regions and income levels; an estimation of the long-term impact of green growth and green energy use on CO₂ emissions for countries implementing green policies within Africa, as well as at regional and global levels; and a comparative analysis of the impact of green growth policies on environmental degradation before and after implementation. Employing advanced econometric methods and panel estimators, the study utilizes a testing framework, panel unit tests, and various estimators to derive meaningful insights. The anticipated results and conclusions will be elucidated through causality tests, impulse response, and variance decomposition analyses, contributing valuable knowledge to the discourse on sustainable development in the African context.Keywords: economic growth, green growth, energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, econometric models, green energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 591480 The Potential in the Use of Building Information Modelling and Life-Cycle Assessment for Retrofitting Buildings: A Study Based on Interviews with Experts in Both Fields
Authors: Alex Gonzalez Caceres, Jan Karlshøj, Tor Arvid Vik
Abstract:
Life cycle of residential buildings are expected to be several decades, 40% of European residential buildings have inefficient energy conservation measure. The existing building represents 20-40% of the energy use and the CO₂ emission. Since net zero energy buildings are a short-term goal, (should be achieved by EU countries after 2020), is necessary to plan the next logical step, which is to prepare the existing outdated stack of building to retrofit them into an energy efficiency buildings. In order to accomplish this, two specialize and widespread tool can be used Building Information Modelling (BIM) and life-cycle assessment (LCA). BIM and LCA are tools used by a variety of disciplines; both are able to represent and analyze the constructions in different stages. The combination of these technologies could improve greatly the retrofitting techniques. The incorporation of the carbon footprint, introducing a single database source for different material analysis. To this is added the possibility of considering different analysis approaches such as costs and energy saving. Is expected with these measures, enrich the decision-making. The methodology is based on two main activities; the first task involved the collection of data this is accomplished by literature review and interview with experts in the retrofitting field and BIM technologies. The results of this task are presented as an evaluation checklist of BIM ability to manage data and improve decision-making in retrofitting projects. The last activity involves an evaluation using the results of the previous tasks, to check how far the IFC format can support the requirements by each specialist, and its uses by third party software. The result indicates that BIM/LCA have a great potential to improve the retrofitting process in existing buildings, but some modification must be done in order to meet the requirements of the specialists for both, retrofitting and LCA evaluators.Keywords: retrofitting, BIM, LCA, energy efficiency
Procedia PDF Downloads 2221479 Interactive Fun Activities for Blind and Sighted Teenagers
Authors: Haif Alharthy, Samar Altarteer
Abstract:
Blind and sighted teenagers might find it challenging to communicate and have fun interaction with each other. The previous studies emphasize the importance of the interactive communication of the blind with the sighted people in developing the interpersonal and social skills of the blind people . Playing games is one of the effective ways used to engage the blind with the sighted people and help in enhancing their social skills. However, it is difficult to find a fun game that is designed to encourage interaction between blind and sighted teenagers in which the blind can play it independently without help and that the sighted find its design attractive and satisfying. The aim of this paper is to examine how challenging is to have fun interaction between blind and sighted people and offer interactive tabletop game solution in which both of them can independently participate and enjoy. The paper discusses the importance and the impact of the interactive fun communication between blind and sighted people and how to get them involved with each other through games. The paper investigates several approaches to design a universal game. A survey was conducted for blind teenager’s family members to discover what difficulties they face while playing and communicating with their blind family member and to identify the blind’s needs and interests in games. The study reveals that although families like to play tabletop games with their blind member, they find difficulties in finding universal games that is interesting and adequate for both. Also, qualitative interviews were conducted with blind teenager shows the sufficiency in tabletop games that do not require help from another family member to play the game. The results suggested that an effective approach is to develop an interactive tabletop game embedded with audio and tactile techniques. The findings of the pilot study highlighted the necessary information such as tools, visuals, and game concepts that should be considered in developing interactive card game for blind and sighted teenagers.Keywords: Blind, card game, communication, interaction, play, tabletop game, teenager
Procedia PDF Downloads 2101478 Exploring the Non-Verbalizable in Conservation Grazing: The Contradictions Illuminated by a ‘Go-Along’ Methodology
Authors: James Ormrod
Abstract:
This paper is concerned with volunteer livestock checking. Based on a pilot study consisting of ‘go-along’ interviews with livestock checkers, it argues that there are limitations to the insights that can be generated from approaches to ‘discourse analysis’ that would focus only on the verbalizable aspects of the practice. Volunteer livestock checking takes place across Europe as part of conservation projects aimed at maintaining particular habitats through the reintroduction of grazing animals. Volunteers are variously called ‘urban shepherds’, because these practices often take place on urban fringes, or ‘lookerers’, as their role is to make visual checks on the animals. Pilot research that took place on the South Downs (a chalk downland habitat on the South Coast of the UK) involved researchers accompanying volunteers as they checked on livestock. They were asked to give an account of what they were doing and then answer semi-structured interview questions. Participants drew on popular discourses on conservation and biodiversity, as framed by the local council who run the programme. They also framed their relationships to the animals in respect to the more formal limitations of their role as identified through the conservation programme. And yet these discourses, significant as they are, do not adequately explain why volunteers are drawn to, and emotionally invested in, lookering. The methodology employed allowed participants instead to gesture to features of the landscape and to recall memories, and for the researchers to see how volunteers interacted with the animals and the landscape in embodied and emotionally loaded ways. The paper argues that a psychosocial perspective that pays attention to the contradictions and tensions made visible through this methodology helps develop a fuller understanding of volunteer livestock checking as a social practice.Keywords: conservation, human-animal relations, lookering, volunteering
Procedia PDF Downloads 1351477 Examining Motivational Dynamics and L2 Learning Transitions of Air Cadets Between Year One and Year Two: A Retrodictive Qualitative Modelling Approach
Authors: Kanyaporn Sommeechai
Abstract:
Air cadets who aspire to become military pilots upon graduation undergo rigorous training at military academies. As first-year cadets are akin to civilian freshmen, they encounter numerous challenges within the seniority-based military academy system. Imposed routines, such as mandatory morning runs and restrictions on mobile phone usage for two semesters, have the potential to impact their learning process and motivation to study, including second language (L2) acquisition. This study aims to investigate the motivational dynamics and L2 learning transitions experienced by air cadets. To achieve this, a Retrodictive Qualitative Modelling approach will be employed, coupled with the adaptation of the three-barrier structure encompassing institutional factors, situational factors, and dispositional factors. Semi-structured interviews will be conducted to gather rich qualitative data. By analyzing and interpreting the collected data, this research seeks to shed light on the motivational factors that influence air cadets' L2 learning journey. The three-barrier structure will provide a comprehensive framework to identify and understand the institutional, situational, and dispositional factors that may impede or facilitate their motivation and language learning progress. Moreover, the study will explore how these factors interact and shape cadets' motivation and learning experiences. The outcomes of this research will yield fundamental data that can inform strategies and interventions to enhance the motivation and language learning outcomes of air cadets. By better understanding their motivational dynamics and transitions, educators and institutions can create targeted initiatives, tailored pedagogical approaches, and supportive environments that effectively inspire and engage air cadets as L2 learners.Keywords: second language, education, motivational dynamics, learning transitions
Procedia PDF Downloads 701476 Sudden Death in Young Patients: A Study of 312 Autopsy Cases
Authors: N. Haj Salem, M. Belhadj, S. Ben Jomâa, S. Saadi, R. Dhouieb, A. Chadly
Abstract:
Introduction: Sudden death in young is seen as a dramatic phenomenon requiring knowledge of its impact and determining their causes. Aim: We aim to study the epidemiological characteristics of sudden death in young, and to discuss the mechanism and the importance of autopsy in these situations. Material and methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study using autopsy data from the department of forensic medicine at the University Hospital of Fattouma Bourguiba, Monastir-Tunisia. A review of all autopsies performed during 23 years was done. In each case, clinical information and circumstances of death were obtained. We have included all sudden death in persons aged between 1 year and 35 years for the male and from one year to 45 years for female. We collected 312 cases of sudden death during the studied period. The collected data were processed using SPSS 20. The significance level was set at 0.05. Results: Thirty-two cases of cardiac ischemic sudden death have been collected. Myocardial infarction was the second cause of sudden death in young patients. There was a male predominance. The most affected subjects were aged between 25-45 years. The death occurred more frequently at rest. Coronary artery disease has been discovered in twenty-four cases (75%). A severe coronary artery disease was observed in two children with medical history of familial hypercholesterolemia. The myocardial infarction occurred in healthy coronary arteries in eight cases. An anomalous course of coronary arteries, in particular, myocardial bridging, was found in eight cases (25%). Toxicological screening was negative in all cases. Second cause of death was hypertrophic cardiomyopathy. Neurological and respiratory causes of death were implicated respectively in 10% and 15%. Conclusion: Identifying epidemiological characteristics of sudden death in this population is important for guiding approaches to prevention that must be based on dietary hygienic measures and the control of cardiovascular risk factors.Keywords: autopsy, cardiac death, sudden death, young
Procedia PDF Downloads 2391475 Assessment of Land Use Land Cover Change-Induced Climatic Effects
Authors: Mahesh K. Jat, Ankan Jana, Mahender Choudhary
Abstract:
Rapid population and economic growth resulted in changes in large-scale land use land cover (LULC) changes. Changes in the biophysical properties of the Earth's surface and its impact on climate are of primary concern nowadays. Different approaches, ranging from location-based relationships or modelling earth surface - atmospheric interaction through modelling techniques like surface energy balance (SEB) are used in the recent past to examine the relationship between changes in Earth surface land cover and climatic characteristics like temperature and precipitation. A remote sensing-based model i.e., Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL), has been used to estimate the surface heat fluxes over Mahi Bajaj Sagar catchment (India) from 2001 to 2020. Landsat ETM and OLI satellite data are used to model the SEB of the area. Changes in observed precipitation and temperature, obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) have been correlated with changes in surface heat fluxes to understand the relative contributions of LULC change in changing these climatic variables. Results indicate a noticeable impact of LULC changes on climatic variables, which are aligned with respective changes in SEB components. Results suggest that precipitation increases at a rate of 20 mm/year. The maximum and minimum temperature decreases and increases at 0.007 ℃ /year and 0.02 ℃ /year, respectively. The average temperature increases at 0.009 ℃ /year. Changes in latent heat flux and sensible heat flux positively correlate with precipitation and temperature, respectively. Variation in surface heat fluxes influences the climate parameters and is an adequate reason for climate change. So, SEB modelling is helpful to understand the LULC change and its impact on climate.Keywords: LULC, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, SEBAL, landsat, precipitation, temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 1171474 A Deep Learning Model with Greedy Layer-Wise Pretraining Approach for Optimal Syngas Production by Dry Reforming of Methane
Authors: Maryam Zarabian, Hector Guzman, Pedro Pereira-Almao, Abraham Fapojuwo
Abstract:
Dry reforming of methane (DRM) has sparked significant industrial and scientific interest not only as a viable alternative for addressing the environmental concerns of two main contributors of the greenhouse effect, i.e., carbon dioxide (CO₂) and methane (CH₄), but also produces syngas, i.e., a mixture of hydrogen (H₂) and carbon monoxide (CO) utilized by a wide range of downstream processes as a feedstock for other chemical productions. In this study, we develop an AI-enable syngas production model to tackle the problem of achieving an equivalent H₂/CO ratio [1:1] with respect to the most efficient conversion. Firstly, the unsupervised density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise (DBSAN) algorithm removes outlier data points from the original experimental dataset. Then, random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN) models employ the error-free dataset to predict the DRM results. DNN models inherently would not be able to obtain accurate predictions without a huge dataset. To cope with this limitation, we employ reusing pre-trained layers’ approaches such as transfer learning and greedy layer-wise pretraining. Compared to the other deep models (i.e., pure deep model and transferred deep model), the greedy layer-wise pre-trained deep model provides the most accurate prediction as well as similar accuracy to the RF model with R² values 1.00, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, 0.999, and 0.999 for the total outlet flow, H₂/CO ratio, H₂ yield, CO yield, CH₄ conversion, and CO₂ conversion outputs, respectively.Keywords: artificial intelligence, dry reforming of methane, artificial neural network, deep learning, machine learning, transfer learning, greedy layer-wise pretraining
Procedia PDF Downloads 891473 Conceptualizing a Strategic Facilities Management Decision Framework for Heritage Building Maintenance Management
Authors: Adegoriola Mayowa I., Lai Joseph H. K., Yung Esther H. K., Chan Edwin H. K.
Abstract:
Heritage buildings (HBs) as structures with historical and architectural relevance that form an integral part of contemporary society. These buildings deserve to be protected for as long as possible to retain their significance. Therefore, the need to prioritize HB maintenance management is pertinent. However, the decision-making process of HBMM can be relatively daunting. The decision-making challenge may be attributed to the multiple 'stakeholders' expectation and requirement which needs to be met. To this end, professionals in the built environment have identified the need to apply the strategic concept of facilities management (FM) in decision making. Furthermore, the different maintenance dimensions have been applied to maintenance management of residential, commercial, and health facilities. Unfortunately, these different maintenance approaches, such as FM, sustainable FM, urban FM, green FM, and strategic FM, are yet to be fully explored in the decision-making process of HBMM. To bridge this gap, this study focuses on developing a framework for strategic decision-making HBMM, which helps achieve HBMM sustainability. At the study's inception, relevant works of literature in the domains of HBMM and FM were conducted. This review helped in the identification of contemporary maintenance practices and their applicability to HBMM. Afterward, a conceptual framework to aid decision-making in HBMM was developed. This framework integrated the concept of FM scope (people, place, process, and technology) while ensuring that decisions plans were made at strategic, tactical, and operational levels. Also, the different characteristics of HBs and stakeholders' requirements were considered in the framework. The conceptual framework presents a holistic guide for professionals in HBMM to ensure that decision processes and outcomes are practical and efficient. It also contributes to the existing body of knowledge on the integration of FM in HBMM. Furthermore, it will serve as a basis for future studies by applying the conceptualized framework in actual cases.Keywords: decision-making, facility management, strategy, sustainability, heritage building, maintenance
Procedia PDF Downloads 1401472 Review and Analysis of Sustainable-Based Risk Management in Humanitarian Supply Chains
Authors: Marinko Maslaric, Maja Jokic
Abstract:
When searching for fast and long term responses, sustainable logistics and supply chain applications have developed irrefutable theories and hypotheses towards market requirements. Nevertheless, there are certain misunderstandings on how the implementation of sustainability principles (social, economical, and environmental) and concepts should work in practice, more specifically, within a humanitarian supply chain management context. This paper will focus on the review and analysis of risk management concepts in humanitarian supply chain in order to identify their compliance with sustainable principles. In this direction, the study will look for strategies that suggest: minimization of environmental impacts throughout the reduction of resources consumption, depreciation of logistics costs, including supply chain ones, minimization of transportation and service costs, elaboration of quality performance of supply chain and logistics, and reduction of supply chain delivery time. On the side of meeting all defense, trades and humanitarian logistics needs, the research will be aligned to UN Sustainable Development Goals, standards, and performances. It will start with relevant strategies for identification of risk indicators and it will end with suggestion of valuable strategic approaches for their minimization or total prevention. Finally, a content analysis will propose a suitable methodological structure for the creation of most sustainable strategy in risk management of humanitarian supply chain. Content analysis will accompany thorough, consistent and methodical approach of literature review for potential disaster risk management plan. Thereupon, the propositions of this research will look for contemporary literature gaps, with respect to operate the literature analysis and to suggest the appropriate sustained risk low master plan. The indicated is here to secure the high quality of logistics practices in hazardous events.Keywords: humanitarian logistics, sustainability, supply chain risk, risk management plan
Procedia PDF Downloads 2411471 Recurrent Neural Networks for Complex Survival Models
Authors: Pius Marthin, Nihal Ata Tutkun
Abstract:
Survival analysis has become one of the paramount procedures in the modeling of time-to-event data. When we encounter complex survival problems, the traditional approach remains limited in accounting for the complex correlational structure between the covariates and the outcome due to the strong assumptions that limit the inference and prediction ability of the resulting models. Several studies exist on the deep learning approach to survival modeling; moreover, the application for the case of complex survival problems still needs to be improved. In addition, the existing models need to address the data structure's complexity fully and are subject to noise and redundant information. In this study, we design a deep learning technique (CmpXRnnSurv_AE) that obliterates the limitations imposed by traditional approaches and addresses the above issues to jointly predict the risk-specific probabilities and survival function for recurrent events with competing risks. We introduce the component termed Risks Information Weights (RIW) as an attention mechanism to compute the weighted cumulative incidence function (WCIF) and an external auto-encoder (ExternalAE) as a feature selector to extract complex characteristics among the set of covariates responsible for the cause-specific events. We train our model using synthetic and real data sets and employ the appropriate metrics for complex survival models for evaluation. As benchmarks, we selected both traditional and machine learning models and our model demonstrates better performance across all datasets.Keywords: cumulative incidence function (CIF), risk information weight (RIW), autoencoders (AE), survival analysis, recurrent events with competing risks, recurrent neural networks (RNN), long short-term memory (LSTM), self-attention, multilayers perceptrons (MLPs)
Procedia PDF Downloads 911470 Complex Network Approach to International Trade of Fossil Fuel
Authors: Semanur Soyyigit Kaya, Ercan Eren
Abstract:
Energy has a prominent role for development of nations. Countries which have energy resources also have strategic power in the international trade of energy since it is essential for all stages of production in the economy. Thus, it is important for countries to analyze the weakness and strength of the system. On the other side, it is commonly believed that international trade has complex network properties. Complex network is a tool for the analysis of complex systems with heterogeneous agents and interaction between them. A complex network consists of nodes and the interactions between these nodes. Total properties which emerge as a result of these interactions are distinct from the sum of small parts (more or less) in complex systems. Thus, standard approaches to international trade are superficial to analyze these systems. Network analysis provides a new approach to analyze international trade as a network. In this network countries constitute nodes and trade relations (export or import) constitute edges. It becomes possible to analyze international trade network in terms of high degree indicators which are specific to complex systems such as connectivity, clustering, assortativity/disassortativity, centrality, etc. In this analysis, international trade of crude oil and coal which are types of fossil fuel has been analyzed from 2005 to 2014 via network analysis. First, it has been analyzed in terms of some topological parameters such as density, transitivity, clustering etc. Afterwards, fitness to Pareto distribution has been analyzed. Finally, weighted HITS algorithm has been applied to the data as a centrality measure to determine the real prominence of countries in these trade networks. Weighted HITS algorithm is a strong tool to analyze the network by ranking countries with regards to prominence of their trade partners. We have calculated both an export centrality and an import centrality by applying w-HITS algorithm to data.Keywords: complex network approach, fossil fuel, international trade, network theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 3371469 Assessment and Forecasting of the Impact of Negative Environmental Factors on Public Health
Authors: Nurlan Smagulov, Aiman Konkabayeva, Akerke Sadykova, Arailym Serik
Abstract:
Introduction. Adverse environmental factors do not immediately lead to pathological changes in the body. They can exert the growth of pre-pathology characterized by shifts in physiological, biochemical, immunological and other indicators of the body state. These disorders are unstable, reversible and indicative of body reactions. There is an opportunity to objectively judge the internal structure of the adaptive body reactions at the level of individual organs and systems. In order to obtain a stable response of the body to the chronic effects of unfavorable environmental factors of low intensity (compared to production environment factors), a time called the «lag time» is needed. The obtained results without considering this factor distort reality and, for the most part, cannot be a reliable statement of the main conclusions in any work. A technique is needed to reduce methodological errors and combine mathematical logic using statistical methods and a medical point of view, which ultimately will affect the obtained results and avoid a false correlation. Objective. Development of a methodology for assessing and predicting the environmental factors impact on the population health considering the «lag time.» Methods. Research objects: environmental and population morbidity indicators. The database on the environmental state was compiled from the monthly newsletters of Kazhydromet. Data on population morbidity were obtained from regional statistical yearbooks. When processing static data, a time interval (lag) was determined for each «argument-function» pair. That is the required interval, after which the harmful factor effect (argument) will fully manifest itself in the indicators of the organism's state (function). The lag value was determined by cross-correlation functions of arguments (environmental indicators) with functions (morbidity). Correlation coefficients (r) and their reliability (t), Fisher's criterion (F) and the influence share (R2) of the main factor (argument) per indicator (function) were calculated as a percentage. Results. The ecological situation of an industrially developed region has an impact on health indicators, but it has some nuances. Fundamentally opposite results were obtained in the mathematical data processing, considering the «lag time». Namely, an expressed correlation was revealed after two databases (ecology-morbidity) shifted. For example, the lag period was 4 years for dust concentration, general morbidity, and 3 years – for childhood morbidity. These periods accounted for the maximum values of the correlation coefficients and the largest percentage of the influencing factor. Similar results were observed in relation to the concentration of soot, dioxide, etc. The comprehensive statistical processing using multiple correlation-regression variance analysis confirms the correctness of the above statement. This method provided the integrated approach to predicting the degree of pollution of the main environmental components to identify the most dangerous combinations of concentrations of leading negative environmental factors. Conclusion. The method of assessing the «environment-public health» system (considering the «lag time») is qualitatively different from the traditional (without considering the «lag time»). The results significantly differ and are more amenable to a logical explanation of the obtained dependencies. The method allows presenting the quantitative and qualitative dependence in a different way within the «environment-public health» system.Keywords: ecology, morbidity, population, lag time
Procedia PDF Downloads 82