Search results for: equivalent linear model
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 19027

Search results for: equivalent linear model

15757 Dynamic Risk Model for Offshore Decommissioning Using Bayesian Belief Network

Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

Abstract:

The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 266
15756 Measure the Gas to Dust Ratio Towards Bright Sources in the Galactic Bulge

Authors: Jun Yang, Norbert Schulz, Claude Canizares

Abstract:

Knowing the dust content in the interstellar matter is necessary to understand the composition and evolution of the interstellar medium (ISM). The metal composition of the ISM enables us to study the cooling and heating processes that dominate the star formation rates in our Galaxy. The Chandra High Energy Transmission Grating (HETG) Spectrometer provides a unique opportunity to measure element dust compositions through X-ray edge absorption structure. We measure gas to dust optical depth ratios towards 9 bright Low-Mass X-ray Binaries (LMXBs) in the Galactic Bulge with the highest precision so far. Well calibrated and pile-up free optical depths are measured with the HETG spectrometer with respect to broadband hydrogen equivalent absorption in bright LMXBs: 4U 1636-53, Ser X-1, GX 3+1, 4U 1728-34, 4U 1705-44, GX 340+0, GX 13+1, GX 5-1, and GX 349+2. From the optical depths results, we deduce gas to dust ratios for various silicates in the ISM and present our results for the Si K edge in different lines of sight towards the Galactic Bulge.

Keywords: low-mass X-ray binaries, interstellar medium, gas to dust ratio, spectrometer

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
15755 Aerodynamic Devices Development for Model Aircraft Control and Wind-Driven Bicycle

Authors: Yuta Moriyama, Tsuyoshi Yamazaki, Etsuo Morishita

Abstract:

Several aerodynamic devices currently attract engineers and research students. The plasma actuator is one of them, and it is very effective to control the flow. The actuator recovers a separated flow to an attached one. The actuator is also inversely applied to a spoiler. The model aircraft might be controlled by this actuator. We develop a model aircraft with the plasma actuator. Another interesting device is the Wells turbine which rotates in one direction. The present authors propose a bicycle with the Wells turbine in the wheels. Power reduction is measured when the turbine is driven by an electric motor at the exit of a wind tunnel. Several Watts power reduction might be possible. This means that the torque of the bike can be augmented by the turbine in the cross wind. These devices are tested in the wind tunnel with a three-component balance and the aerodynamic forces and moment are obtained. In this paper, we introduce these devices and their aerodynamic characteristics. The control force and moment of the plasma actuator are clarified and the power reduction of the bicycle is quantified.

Keywords: aerodynamics, model aircraft, plasma actuator, Wells turbine

Procedia PDF Downloads 224
15754 The Factors for Developing Trainers in Auto Parts Manufacturing Factories at Amata Nakon Industrial Estate in Cholburi Province

Authors: Weerakarj Dokchan

Abstract:

The purposes of this research are to find out the factors for developing trainers in the auto part manufacturing factories (AMF) in Amata Nakon Industrial Estate Cholburi. Population in this study included 148 operators to complete the questionnaires and 10 trainers to provide the information on the interview. The research statistics consisted of percentage, mean, standard deviation and step-wise multiple linear regression analysis.The analysis of the training model revealed that: The research result showed that the development factors of trainers in AMF consisted of 3 main factors and 8 sub-factors: 1) knowledge competency consisting of 4 sub-factors; arrangement of critical thinking, organizational loyalty, working experience of the trainers, analysis of behavior, and work and organization loyalty which could predict the success of the trainers at 55.60%. 2) Skill competency consisted of 4 sub-factors, arrangement of critical thinking, organizational loyalty and analysis of behavior and work and the development of emotional quotient. These 4 sub-factors could predict the success of the trainers in skill aspect 55.90%. 3) The attitude competency consisted of 4 sub-factors, arrangement of critical thinking, intention of trainee computer competency and teaching psychology. In conclusion, these 4 sub-factors could predict the success of the trainers in attitude aspect 58.50%.

Keywords: the development factors, trainers development, trainer competencies, auto part manufacturing factory (AMF), AmataNakon Industrial Estate Cholburi

Procedia PDF Downloads 287
15753 The SBO/LOCA Analysis of TRACE/SNAP for Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant

Authors: J. R. Wang, H. T. Lin, Y. Chiang, H. C. Chen, C. Shih

Abstract:

Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) is located on the northern coast of Taiwan. Its nuclear steam supply system is a type of BWR/6 designed and built by General Electric on a twin unit concept. First, the methodology of Kuosheng NPP SPU (Stretch Power Uprate) safety analysis TRACE/SNAP model was developed in this research. Then, in order to estimate the safety of Kuosheng NPP under the more severe condition, the SBO (Station Blackout) + LOCA (Loss-of-Coolant Accident) transient analysis of Kuosheng NPP SPU TRACE/SNAP model was performed. Besides, the animation model of Kuosheng NPP was presented using the animation function of SNAP with TRACE/SNAP analysis results.

Keywords: TRACE, safety analysis, BWR/6, severe accident

Procedia PDF Downloads 692
15752 Edmonton Urban Growth Model as a Support Tool for the City Plan Growth Scenarios Development

Authors: Sinisa J. Vukicevic

Abstract:

Edmonton is currently one of the youngest North American cities and has achieved significant growth over the past 40 years. Strong urban shift requires a new approach to how the city is envisioned, planned, and built. This approach is evidence-based scenario development, and an urban growth model was a key support tool in framing Edmonton development strategies, developing urban policies, and assessing policy implications. The urban growth model has been developed using the Metronamica software platform. The Metronamica land use model evaluated the dynamic of land use change under the influence of key development drivers (population and employment), zoning, land suitability, and land and activity accessibility. The model was designed following the Big City Moves ideas: become greener as we grow, develop a rebuildable city, ignite a community of communities, foster a healing city, and create a city of convergence. The Big City Moves were converted to three development scenarios: ‘Strong Central City’, ‘Node City’, and ‘Corridor City’. Each scenario has a narrative story that expressed scenario’s high level goal, scenario’s approach to residential and commercial activities, to transportation vision, and employment and environmental principles. Land use demand was calculated for each scenario according to specific density targets. Spatial policies were analyzed according to their level of importance within the policy set definition for the specific scenario, but also through the policy measures. The model was calibrated on the way to reproduce known historical land use pattern. For the calibration, we used 2006 and 2011 land use data. The validation is done independently, which means we used the data we did not use for the calibration. The model was validated with 2016 data. In general, the modeling process contain three main phases: ‘from qualitative storyline to quantitative modelling’, ‘model development and model run’, and ‘from quantitative modelling to qualitative storyline’. The model also incorporates five spatial indicators: distance from residential to work, distance from residential to recreation, distance to river valley, urban expansion and habitat fragmentation. The major finding of this research could be looked at from two perspectives: the planning perspective and technology perspective. The planning perspective evaluates the model as a tool for scenario development. Using the model, we explored the land use dynamic that is influenced by a different set of policies. The model enables a direct comparison between the three scenarios. We explored the similarities and differences of scenarios and their quantitative indicators: land use change, population change (and spatial allocation), job allocation, density (population, employment, and dwelling unit), habitat connectivity, proximity to objects of interest, etc. From the technology perspective, the model showed one very important characteristic: the model flexibility. The direction for policy testing changed many times during the consultation process and model flexibility in applying all these changes was highly appreciated. The model satisfied our needs as scenario development and evaluation tool, but also as a communication tool during the consultation process.

Keywords: urban growth model, scenario development, spatial indicators, Metronamica

Procedia PDF Downloads 82
15751 Direct Electrical Communication of Redox Enzyme Based on 3-Dimensional Cross-Linked Redox Enzyme/Nanomaterials

Authors: A. K. M. Kafi, S. N. Nina, Mashitah M. Yusoff

Abstract:

In this work, we have described a new 3-dimensional (3D) network of cross-linked Horseradish Peroxidase/Carbon Nanotube (HRP/CNT) on a thiol-modified Au surface in order to build up the effective electrical wiring of the enzyme units with the electrode. This was achieved by the electropolymerization of aniline-functionalized carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and 4-aminothiophenol -modified-HRP on a 4-aminothiophenol monolayer-modified Au electrode. The synthesized 3D HRP/CNT networks were characterized with cyclic voltammetry and amperometry, resulting the establishment direct electron transfer between the redox active unit of HRP and the Au surface. Electrochemical measurements reveal that the immobilized HRP exhibits high biological activity and stability and a quasi-reversible redox peak of the redox center of HRP was observed at about −0.355 and −0.275 V vs. Ag/AgCl. The electron transfer rate constant, KS and electron transfer co-efficient were found to be 0.57 s-1 and 0.42, respectively. Based on the electrocatalytic process by direct electrochemistry of HRP, a biosensor for detecting H2O2 was developed. The developed biosensor exhibits excellent electrocatalytic activity for the reduction of H2O2. The proposed biosensor modified with HRP/CNT 3D network displays a broader linear range and a lower detection limit for H2O2 determination. The linear range is from 1.0×10−7 to 1.2×10−4M with a detection limit of 2.2.0×10−8M at 3σ. Moreover, this biosensor exhibits very high sensitivity, good reproducibility and long-time stability. In summary, ease of fabrication, a low cost, fast response and high sensitivity are the main advantages of the new biosensor proposed in this study. These obvious advantages would really help for the real analytical applicability of the proposed biosensor.

Keywords: redox enzyme, nanomaterials, biosensors, electrical communication

Procedia PDF Downloads 439
15750 Effect of Male and Female Early Childhood Teacher's Educational Practices on Child' Social Adaptation

Authors: Therese Besnard

Abstract:

Internationally in early childhood education (ECE), the great majority of teachers are women. Some groups believe that a greater male teacher presence in ECE would be beneficial for children, specifically for boys as it could offer a positive male model. It is a common belief that children would benefit from being exposed to both male and female models. Some believe that women are naturally better suited to offer quality care to young children comparatively to men. Some authors bring forth that after equivalent training, differences in the educational practices are purely individual and do not depend on the teacher’s gender. Others believe that a greater male presence in ECE would increase the risk of pedophilia or child abuse. The few scientific studies in this area suggest that differences could exist between male and female ECE teacher, in particular when it comes to play which is the mainstay of the ECE educational program. Male teachers describe themselves as being more playful and having a greater tendency to initiate physical and turbulent play comparatively to female teachers, who describe themselves as favoring games that are calmer and focused on social interaction. Observed directly, male teachers appear more actively engaged in play with children and propose more motor play than female teachers. Furthermore children who have both male and female teachers for one year show less behavior difficulties when compared to children with only female teachers. Despite a variety of viewpoints we don’t know if the educational practices of male ECE teachers, (emotional support, classroom organization or instructional support) are different than the educational practices of female teachers and if these practices are linked with children’s adaptation. This study compares the educational practices of 37 ECE teachers (57 % male) and analyses the link with children' social adaptation (n=221). Educational practices were assessed through observational measurements with the Classroom Assessment Scoring System (CLASS) in a natural class environment. Child social adaptation was assessed with the Social Competence and Behavior Evaluation (SCBE). Observational data reveals no differences between men's and women's scale of the CLASS. Results using Multilevel models analyses suggest that the ability to propose good classroom organization and give good instructional support are linked with better child' social adaptation, and that is always true for men and women teachers. The results are discussed on the basis of their potential impact on future educational interventions.

Keywords: child social adaptation, early childhood education, educational practices, men teacher

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15749 Developing a Knowledge-Based Lean Six Sigma Model to Improve Healthcare Leadership Performance

Authors: Yousuf N. Al Khamisi, Eduardo M. Hernandez, Khurshid M. Khan

Abstract:

Purpose: This paper presents a model of a Knowledge-Based (KB) using Lean Six Sigma (L6σ) principles to enhance the performance of healthcare leadership. Design/methodology/approach: Using L6σ principles to enhance healthcare leaders’ performance needs a pre-assessment of the healthcare organisation’s capabilities. The model will be developed using a rule-based approach of KB system. Thus, KB system embeds Gauging Absence of Pre-requisite (GAP) for benchmarking and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for prioritization. A comprehensive literature review will be covered for the main contents of the model with a typical output of GAP analysis and AHP. Findings: The proposed KB system benchmarks the current position of healthcare leadership with the ideal benchmark one (resulting from extensive evaluation by the KB/GAP/AHP system of international leadership concepts in healthcare environments). Research limitations/implications: Future work includes validating the implementation model in healthcare environments around the world. Originality/value: This paper presents a novel application of a hybrid KB combines of GAP and AHP methodology. It implements L6σ principles to enhance healthcare performance. This approach assists healthcare leaders’ decision making to reach performance improvement against a best practice benchmark.

Keywords: Lean Six Sigma (L6σ), Knowledge-Based System (KBS), healthcare leadership, Gauge Absence Prerequisites (GAP), Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 154
15748 Currency Exchange Rate Forecasts Using Quantile Regression

Authors: Yuzhi Cai

Abstract:

In this paper, we discuss a Bayesian approach to quantile autoregressive (QAR) time series model estimation and forecasting. Together with a combining forecasts technique, we then predict USD to GBP currency exchange rates. Combined forecasts contain all the information captured by the fitted QAR models at different quantile levels and are therefore better than those obtained from individual models. Our results show that an unequally weighted combining method performs better than other forecasting methodology. We found that a median AR model can perform well in point forecasting when the predictive density functions are symmetric. However, in practice, using the median AR model alone may involve the loss of information about the data captured by other QAR models. We recommend that combined forecasts should be used whenever possible.

Keywords: combining forecasts, MCMC, predictive density functions, quantile forecasting, quantile modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 245
15747 New Moment Rotation Model of Single Web Angle Connections

Authors: Zhengyi Kong, Seung-Eock Kim

Abstract:

Single angle connections, which are bolted to the beam web and the column flange, are studied to investigate moment-rotation behavior. Elastic–perfectly plastic material behavior is assumed. ABAQUS software is used to analyze the nonlinear behavior of a single angle connection. The same geometric and material conditions with Yanglin Gong’s test are used for verifying finite element models. Since Kishi and Chen’s Power model and Lee and Moon’s Log model are accurate only for a limited range, simpler and more accurate hyperbolic function models are proposed. The equation for calculating rotation at ultimate moment is first proposed.

Keywords: finite element method, moment and rotation, rotation at ultimate moment, single-web angle connections

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15746 Release Response of Black Spruce and White Spruce Following Overstory Lodgepole Pine Mortality Due to Mountain Pine Beetle Attack

Authors: F. O. Oboite, P. G. Comeau

Abstract:

Advance regeneration is present in many lodgepole pine stands in Alberta. When the overstory pine canopy is killed by Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) the growth of this advance is likely to increase. Understanding the growth response of these understory tree species is needed to improve mid-term timber supply projections and management decisions. To quantify the growth (diameter, height, height/diameter ratio) responses of black spruce and white spruce to lodgepole pine mortality, sample trees of black and white spruce advance regeneration were selected from 7 lodgepole pine dominated stands (5 attacked; 2 control) in the Foothills Region of western Alberta. Measurements were collected 7-8 years after MPB attack across a wide range of spruce height and stand densities. Analysis was done using mixed model linear regression. Result indicates that there was an increase in both diameter and height growth after MPB attack; however, this increase in growth was delayed for about four years. Both spruce species had similar height response and their height/diameter ratio decreased after release, partly as a result of increased understory light associated with loss of needles in the pine canopy. In addition, the diameter and height growth responses of both spruce species were strongly related to density, prerelease growth and initial size.

Keywords: mountain pine beetle, forest regeneration, lodgepole pine, growth response

Procedia PDF Downloads 361
15745 Character Education Model for Early Childhood Based Javanese Culture

Authors: Rafika Bayu Kusumandari, Istyarini, Ispen Safrel

Abstract:

Character education will be more meaningful if carried out since early childhood. This is because early childhood education is the foundation of the formation of character. This study intends to find a model of character education in early childhood based on Javanese culture. In keeping with the focus of the study, long-term goals to be achieved through this research is to find once described the development of a model of character education in early childhood Javanese culture based in Semarang are then applied across early childhood education institutions in Semarang City. The specific objective of the study is: Describe the character models and management education in early childhood Java-based culture in Semarang City. The benefits of this research are; Provide an overview of the model and describe the management of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in Semarang City. Referring to the objectives of the research program was designed with a "Research and Development", meaning that a program of research followed by development programs for improvement or refinement. To produce a prototype model of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in the city, taken systematic measures in the form of the action, reflection, evaluation and innovation by applying qualitative research methods, descriptive, development, experimentation, and evaluation. This study aims to gain in-depth description of the model of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in the city of Semarang. The reason for the use of the use of qualitative methods researcher's knowledge, no study results and empirical research specifically about the model of character education in early childhood Java-based culture in the city of Semarang. On the implementation of character education early childhood adapted to the characteristics of each school and the emphasis of each agency arrangements for early childhood education, culture-based Java. Javanese culture should be introduced early in order not to erode the cultural lost outside the entrance as the era of globalization. In addition, Java is promoting a culture of courtesy and manners are very appropriate for the character formation of children of early age.

Keywords: education character, Javanese culture, childhood, character

Procedia PDF Downloads 379
15744 3D Model Completion Based on Similarity Search with Slim-Tree

Authors: Alexis Aldo Mendoza Villarroel, Ademir Clemente Villena Zevallos, Cristian Jose Lopez Del Alamo

Abstract:

With the advancement of technology it is now possible to scan entire objects and obtain their digital representation by using point clouds or polygon meshes. However, some objects may be broken or have missing parts; thus, several methods focused on this problem have been proposed based on Geometric Deep Learning, such as GCNN, ACNN, PointNet, among others. In this article an approach from a different paradigm is proposed, using metric data structures to index global descriptors in the spectral domain and allow the recovery of a set of similar models in polynomial time; to later use the Iterative Close Point algorithm and recover the parts of the incomplete model using the geometry and topology of the model with less Hausdorff distance.

Keywords: 3D reconstruction method, point cloud completion, shape completion, similarity search

Procedia PDF Downloads 109
15743 Optimal Design of Concrete Shells by Modified Particle Community Algorithm Using Spinless Curves

Authors: Reza Abbasi, Ahmad Hamidi Benam

Abstract:

Shell structures have many geometrical variables that modify some of these parameters to improve the mechanical behavior of the shell. On the other hand, the behavior of such structures depends on their geometry rather than on mass. Optimization techniques are useful in finding the geometrical shape of shell structures to improve mechanical behavior, especially to prevent or reduce bending anchors. The overall objective of this research is to optimize the shape of concrete shells using the thickness and height parameters along the reference curve and the overall shape of this curve. To implement the proposed scheme, the geometry of the structure was formulated using nonlinear curves. Shell optimization was performed under equivalent static loading conditions using the modified bird community algorithm. The results of this optimization show that without disrupting the initial design and with slight changes in the shell geometry, the structural behavior is significantly improved.

Keywords: concrete shells, shape optimization, spinless curves, modified particle community algorithm

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15742 Classifying Students for E-Learning in Information Technology Course Using ANN

Authors: Sirilak Areerachakul, Nat Ployong, Supayothin Na Songkla

Abstract:

This research’s objective is to select the model with most accurate value by using Neural Network Technique as a way to filter potential students who enroll in IT course by electronic learning at Suan Suanadha Rajabhat University. It is designed to help students selecting the appropriate courses by themselves. The result showed that the most accurate model was 100 Folds Cross-validation which had 73.58% points of accuracy.

Keywords: artificial neural network, classification, students, e-learning

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15741 On the Well-Posedness of Darcy–Forchheimer Power Model Equation

Authors: Johnson Audu, Faisal Fairag

Abstract:

In a bounded subset of R^d, d=2 or 3, we consider the Darcy-Forchheimer power model with the exponent 1 < m ≤ 2 for a single-phase strong-inertia fluid flow in a porous medium. Under necessary compatibility condition, and some mild regularity assumptions on the interior and the boundary data, we prove the existence and uniqueness of solution (u, p) in L^(m+1 ) (Ω)^d X (W^(1,(m+1)/m) (Ω)^d ⋂L_0^2 (Ω)^d) and its stability.

Keywords: porous media, power law, strong inertia, nonlinear, monotone type

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15740 Sentiment Analysis of Fake Health News Using Naive Bayes Classification Models

Authors: Danielle Shackley, Yetunde Folajimi

Abstract:

As more people turn to the internet seeking health-related information, there is more risk of finding false, inaccurate, or dangerous information. Sentiment analysis is a natural language processing technique that assigns polarity scores to text, ranging from positive, neutral, and negative. In this research, we evaluate the weight of a sentiment analysis feature added to fake health news classification models. The dataset consists of existing reliably labeled health article headlines that were supplemented with health information collected about COVID-19 from social media sources. We started with data preprocessing and tested out various vectorization methods such as Count and TFIDF vectorization. We implemented 3 Naive Bayes classifier models, including Bernoulli, Multinomial, and Complement. To test the weight of the sentiment analysis feature on the dataset, we created benchmark Naive Bayes classification models without sentiment analysis, and those same models were reproduced, and the feature was added. We evaluated using the precision and accuracy scores. The Bernoulli initial model performed with 90% precision and 75.2% accuracy, while the model supplemented with sentiment labels performed with 90.4% precision and stayed constant at 75.2% accuracy. Our results show that the addition of sentiment analysis did not improve model precision by a wide margin; while there was no evidence of improvement in accuracy, we had a 1.9% improvement margin of the precision score with the Complement model. Future expansion of this work could include replicating the experiment process and substituting the Naive Bayes for a deep learning neural network model.

Keywords: sentiment analysis, Naive Bayes model, natural language processing, topic analysis, fake health news classification model

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15739 Building Organisational Culture That Stimulates Creativity and Innovation

Authors: Ala Hanetite

Abstract:

The purpose of this article is to present, by means of a model, the determinants of organisational culture which influence creativity and innovation. A literature study showed that a model, based on the open systems theory and the work of Schein, can offer a holistic approach in describing organisational culture. The relationship between creativity, innovation and culture is discussed in this context. Against the background of this model, the determinants of organisational culture were identified. The determinants are strategy, structure, support mechanisms, behaviour that encourages innovation, and open communication. The influence of each determinant on creativity and innovation is discussed. Values, norms and beliefs that play a role in creativity and innovation can either support or inhibit creativity and innovation depending on how they influence individual and group behaviour. This is also explained in the article.

Keywords: attitudes, creativity, innovation, organisational culture

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15738 The Quality Improvement of Painting Assignments for Grade 4-6 Students by Using PDCA Cycle

Authors: Pawinee Sorawech

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to investigate the quality improvement of painting assignments for grade 4-6 students by using PDCA cycle. This study employed a qualitative technique. Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University and its demonstration school were selected as the area of study. An in-depth interview was utilized. The findings revealed that model of PDCA cycle was a proper model to increase the quality of painting assignments for grade 4-6 students. The six steps of improvement included: studying the PDCA model, setting up a plan, determining the scope of work, creating a strategy, developing a quality for painting assignment, and coming up with a handbook for a quality improvement of painting assignment.

Keywords: quality, painting assignments, PDCA cycle, grade 4-6 students

Procedia PDF Downloads 468
15737 South African Multiple Deprivation-Concentration Index Quantiles Differentiated by Components of Success and Impediment to Tuberculosis Control Programme Using Mathematical Modelling in Rural O. R. Tambo District Health Facilities

Authors: Ntandazo Dlatu, Benjamin Longo-Mbenza, Andre Renzaho, Ruffin Appalata, Yolande Yvonne Valeria Matoumona Mavoungou, Mbenza Ben Longo, Kenneth Ekoru, Blaise Makoso, Gedeon Longo Longo

Abstract:

Background: The gap between complexities related to the integration of Tuberculosis /HIV control and evidence-based knowledge motivated the initiation of the study. Therefore, the objective of this study was to explore correlations between national TB management guidelines, multiple deprivation indexes, quantiles, components and levels of Tuberculosis control programme using mathematical modeling in rural O.R. Tambo District Health Facilities, South Africa. Methods: The study design used mixed secondary data analysis and cross-sectional analysis between 2009 and 2013 across O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa using univariate/ bivariate analysis, linear multiple regression models, and multivariate discriminant analysis. Health inequalities indicators and component of an impediment to the tuberculosis control programme were evaluated. Results: In total, 62 400 records for TB notification were analyzed for the period 2009-2013. There was a significant but negative between Financial Year Expenditure (r= -0.894; P= 0.041) Seropositive HIV status(r= -0.979; P= 0.004), Population Density (r = -0.881; P= 0.048) and the number of TB defaulter in all TB cases. It was shown unsuccessful control of TB management program through correlations between numbers of new PTB smear positive, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB failure all TB, Pulmonary Tuberculosis case finding index and deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. It was shown successful TB program control through significant and negative associations between declining numbers of death in co-infection of HIV and TB, TB deaths all TB and SMIAD gradient/ deprivation-concentration-dispersion index. The multivariate linear model was summarized by unadjusted r of 96%, adjusted R2 of 95 %, Standard Error of estimate of 0.110, R2 changed of 0.959 and significance for variance change for P=0.004 to explain the prediction of TB defaulter in all TB with equation y= 8.558-0.979 x number of HIV seropositive. After adjusting for confounding factors (PTB case finding the index, TB defaulter new smear-positive, TB death in all TB, TB defaulter all TB, and TB failure in all TB). The HIV and TB death, as well as new PTB smear positive, were identified as the most important, significant, and independent indicator to discriminate most deprived deprivation index far from other deprivation quintiles 2-5 using discriminant analysis. Conclusion: Elimination of poverty such as overcrowding, lack of sanitation and environment of highest burden of HIV might end the TB threat in O.R Tambo District, Eastern Cape, South Africa. Furthermore, ongoing adequate budget comprehensive, holistic and collaborative initiative towards Sustainable Developmental Goals (SDGs) is necessary for complete elimination of TB in poor O.R Tambo District.

Keywords: tuberculosis, HIV/AIDS, success, failure, control program, health inequalities, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 148
15736 Direct Electrical Communication of Redox Enzyme Based on 3-Dimensional Crosslinked Redox Enzyme/Carbon Nanotube on a Thiol-Modified Au Surface

Authors: A. K. M. Kafi, S. N. Nina, Mashitah M. Yusoff

Abstract:

In this work, we have described a new 3-dimensional (3D) network of crosslinked Horseradish Peroxidase/Carbon Nanotube (HRP/CNT) on a thiol-modified Au surface in order to build up the effective electrical wiring of the enzyme units with the electrode. This was achieved by the electropolymerization of aniline-functionalized carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and 4-aminothiophenol -modified-HRP on a 4-aminothiophenol monolayer-modified Au electrode. The synthesized 3D HRP/CNT networks were characterized with cyclic voltammetry and amperometry, resulting the establishment direct electron transfer between the redox active unit of HRP and the Au surface. Electrochemical measurements reveal that the immobilized HRP exhibits high biological activity and stability and a quasi-reversible redox peak of the redox center of HRP was observed at about −0.355 and −0.275 V vs. Ag/AgCl. The electron transfer rate constant, KS and electron transfer co-efficient were found to be 0.57 s-1 and 0.42, respectively. Based on the electrocatalytic process by direct electrochemistry of HRP, a biosensor for detecting H2O2 was developed. The developed biosensor exhibits excellent electrocatalytic activity for the reduction of H2O2. The proposed biosensor modified with HRP/CNT 3D network displays a broader linear range and a lower detection limit for H2O2 determination. The linear range is from 1.0×10−7 to 1.2×10−4M with a detection limit of 2.2.0×10−8M at 3σ. Moreover, this biosensor exhibits very high sensitivity, good reproducibility and long-time stability. In summary, ease of fabrication, a low cost, fast response and high sensitivity are the main advantages of the new biosensor proposed in this study. These obvious advantages would really help for the real analytical applicability of the proposed biosensor.

Keywords: biosensor, nanomaterials, redox enzyme, thiol-modified Au surface

Procedia PDF Downloads 314
15735 Geospatial Curve Fitting Methods for Disease Mapping of Tuberculosis in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa

Authors: Davies Obaromi, Qin Yongsong, James Ndege

Abstract:

To interpolate scattered or regularly distributed data, there are imprecise or exact methods. However, there are some of these methods that could be used for interpolating data in a regular grid and others in an irregular grid. In spatial epidemiology, it is important to examine how a disease prevalence rates are distributed in space, and how they relate with each other within a defined distance and direction. In this study, for the geographic and graphic representation of the disease prevalence, linear and biharmonic spline methods were implemented in MATLAB, and used to identify, localize and compare for smoothing in the distribution patterns of tuberculosis (TB) in Eastern Cape Province. The aim of this study is to produce a more “smooth” graphical disease map for TB prevalence patterns by a 3-D curve fitting techniques, especially the biharmonic splines that can suppress noise easily, by seeking a least-squares fit rather than exact interpolation. The datasets are represented generally as a 3D or XYZ triplets, where X and Y are the spatial coordinates and Z is the variable of interest and in this case, TB counts in the province. This smoothing spline is a method of fitting a smooth curve to a set of noisy observations using a spline function, and it has also become the conventional method for its high precision, simplicity and flexibility. Surface and contour plots are produced for the TB prevalence at the provincial level for 2012 – 2015. From the results, the general outlook of all the fittings showed a systematic pattern in the distribution of TB cases in the province and this is consistent with some spatial statistical analyses carried out in the province. This new method is rarely used in disease mapping applications, but it has a superior advantage to be assessed at subjective locations rather than only on a rectangular grid as seen in most traditional GIS methods of geospatial analyses.

Keywords: linear, biharmonic splines, tuberculosis, South Africa

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15734 Using Flow Line Modelling, Remote Sensing for Reconstructing Glacier Volume Loss Model for Athabasca Glacier, Canadian Rockies

Authors: Rituparna Nath, Shawn J. Marshall

Abstract:

Glaciers are one of the main sensitive climatic indicators, as they respond strongly to small climatic shifts. We develop a flow line model of glacier dynamics to simulate the past and future extent of glaciers in the Canadian Rocky Mountains, with the aim of coupling this model within larger scale regional climate models of glacier response to climate change. This paper will focus on glacier-climate modeling and reconstructions of glacier volume from the Little Ice Age (LIA) to present for Athabasca Glacier, Alberta, Canada. Glacier thickness, volume and mass change will be constructed using flow line modelling and examination of different climate scenarios that are able to give good reconstructions of LIA ice extent. With the availability of SPOT 5 imagery, Digital elevation models and GIS Arc Hydro tool, ice catchment properties-glacier width and LIA moraines have been extracted using automated procedures. Simulation of glacier mass change will inform estimates of meltwater run off over the historical period and model calibration from the LIA reconstruction will aid in future projections of the effects of climate change on glacier recession. Furthermore, the model developed will be effective for further future studies with ensembles of glaciers.

Keywords: flow line modeling, Athabasca Glacier, glacier mass balance, Remote Sensing, Arc hydro tool, little ice age

Procedia PDF Downloads 259
15733 Numerical Investigation of the Electromagnetic Common Rail Injector Characteristics

Authors: Rafal Sochaczewski, Ksenia Siadkowska, Tytus Tulwin

Abstract:

The paper describes the modeling of a fuel injector for common rail systems. A one-dimensional model of a solenoid-valve-controlled injector with Valve Closes Orifice (VCO) spray was modelled in the AVL Hydsim. This model shows the dynamic phenomena that occur in the injector. The accuracy of the calibration, based on a regulation of the parameters of the control valve and the nozzle needle lift, was verified by comparing the numerical results of injector flow rate. Our model is capable of a precise simulation of injector operating parameters in relation to injection time and fuel pressure in a fuel rail. As a result, there were made characteristics of the injector flow rate and backflow.

Keywords: common rail, diesel engine, fuel injector, modeling

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15732 Longitudinal Changes in Body Composition in Subjects with Diabetes Who Received Low-Carbohydrate Diet Education: The Effect of Age and Sex

Authors: Hsueh-Ching Wu

Abstract:

Aims: This study investigated the longitudinal changes in BC were evaluated in patients with T2D who received carbohydrate-restricted diet education (CRDE), and the effects of age and sex on BC were analyzed. Design: This retrospective observational study was conducted between 2018 and 2021. A total of 6164 T2D patients were analyzed. Subjects with T2D who received CRDE (daily carbohydrate intake: 26-45%). A hierarchical linear model (HLM) was used to estimate the change amount and rate of change for the following variables in each group: body weight (BW), body mass index (BMI), body fat mass (BFM), percent body fat (PBF), appendicular skeletal muscle mass (ASM), and skeletal muscle index (SMI). Results: The BW, BMI, ASM, SMI and BFM of T2D patients who received CRDE for 3 years decreased with increasing age; PBF showed the opposite trend. The changes in BW, BMI, ASM, and SMI of patients older than 65 years were higher than those of patients younger than 65 years, and the annual rate of decline for males was higher than that for females. The annual change in BFM and PBF for both sexes changed from a downward trend before the age of 65 to a slow increase after the age of 65, and the slow increase rate for women was higher than that for men. Conclusion: Changes in body composition are associated with age and sex. BW and muscle tissue decrease with age, and attention must be paid to the rebound of adipose tissue after middle age. Patient or Public Contribution: The patient agreed to participate in a retrospective chart review during in the study period.

Keywords: body weight, body composition, carbohydrate-restricted diet, nursing, type 2 diabetes

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15731 Two Layer Photo-Thermal Deflection Model to Investigate the Electronic Properties in BGaAs/GaAs Alloys

Authors: S. Ilahi, M. Baira, F. Saidi, N. Yacoubi, L. Auvray, H. Maaref

Abstract:

Photo-thermal deflection technique (PTD) is used to study the nonradiative recombination process in BGaAs/GaAs alloy with boron composition of 3% and 8% grown by metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD). A two layer theoretical model has been developed taking into account both thermal and electronic contribution in the photothermal signal allowing to extract the electronic parameters namely electronic diffusivity, surface and interface recombination. It is found that the increase of boron composition alters the BGaAs epilayers transport properties.

Keywords: photothermal defelction technique, two layer model, BGaAs/GaAs alloys, boron composition

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15730 Neural Synchronization - The Brain’s Transfer of Sensory Data

Authors: David Edgar

Abstract:

To understand how the brain’s subconscious and conscious functions, we must conquer the physics of Unity, which leads to duality’s algorithm. Where the subconscious (bottom-up) and conscious (top-down) processes function together to produce and consume intelligence, we use terms like ‘time is relative,’ but we really do understand the meaning. In the brain, there are different processes and, therefore, different observers. These different processes experience time at different rates. A sensory system such as the eyes cycles measurement around 33 milliseconds, the conscious process of the frontal lobe cycles at 300 milliseconds, and the subconscious process of the thalamus cycle at 5 milliseconds. Three different observers experience time differently. To bridge observers, the thalamus, which is the fastest of the processes, maintains a synchronous state and entangles the different components of the brain’s physical process. The entanglements form a synchronous cohesion between the brain components allowing them to share the same state and execute in the same measurement cycle. The thalamus uses the shared state to control the firing sequence of the brain’s linear subconscious process. Sharing state also allows the brain to cheat on the amount of sensory data that must be exchanged between components. Only unpredictable motion is transferred through the synchronous state because predictable motion already exists in the shared framework. The brain’s synchronous subconscious process is entirely based on energy conservation, where prediction regulates energy usage. So, the eyes every 33 milliseconds dump their sensory data into the thalamus every day. The thalamus is going to perform a motion measurement to identify the unpredictable motion in the sensory data. Here is the trick. The thalamus conducts its measurement based on the original observation time of the sensory system (33 ms), not its own process time (5 ms). This creates a data payload of synchronous motion that preserves the original sensory observation. Basically, a frozen moment in time (Flat 4D). The single moment in time can then be processed through the single state maintained by the synchronous process. Other processes, such as consciousness (300 ms), can interface with the synchronous state to generate awareness of that moment. Now, synchronous data traveling through a separate faster synchronous process creates a theoretical time tunnel where observation time is tunneled through the synchronous process and is reproduced on the other side in the original time-relativity. The synchronous process eliminates time dilation by simply removing itself from the equation so that its own process time does not alter the experience. To the original observer, the measurement appears to be instantaneous, but in the thalamus, a linear subconscious process generating sensory perception and thought production is being executed. It is all just occurring in the time available because other observation times are slower than thalamic measurement time. For life to exist in the physical universe requires a linear measurement process, it just hides by operating at a faster time relativity. What’s interesting is time dilation is not the problem; it’s the solution. Einstein said there was no universal time.

Keywords: neural synchronization, natural intelligence, 99.95% IoT data transmission savings, artificial subconscious intelligence (ASI)

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15729 Dow Polyols near Infrared Chemometric Model Reduction Based on Clustering: Reducing Thirty Global Hydroxyl Number (OH) Models to Less Than Five

Authors: Wendy Flory, Kazi Czarnecki, Matthijs Mercy, Mark Joswiak, Mary Beth Seasholtz

Abstract:

Polyurethane Materials are present in a wide range of industrial segments such as Furniture, Building and Construction, Composites, Automotive, Electronics, and more. Dow is one of the leaders for the manufacture of the two main raw materials, Isocyanates and Polyols used to produce polyurethane products. Dow is also a key player for the manufacture of Polyurethane Systems/Formulations designed for targeted applications. In 1990, the first analytical chemometric models were developed and deployed for use in the Dow QC labs of the polyols business for the quantification of OH, water, cloud point, and viscosity. Over the years many models have been added; there are now over 140 models for quantification and hundreds for product identification, too many to be reasonable for support. There are 29 global models alone for the quantification of OH across > 70 products at many sites. An attempt was made to consolidate these into a single model. While the consolidated model proved good statistics across the entire range of OH, several products had a bias by ASTM E1655 with individual product validation. This project summary will show the strategy for global model updates for OH, to reduce the number of models for quantification from over 140 to 5 or less using chemometric methods. In order to gain an understanding of the best product groupings, we identify clusters by reducing spectra to a few dimensions via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP). Results from these cluster analyses and a separate validation set allowed dow to reduce the number of models for predicting OH from 29 to 3 without loss of accuracy.

Keywords: hydroxyl, global model, model maintenance, near infrared, polyol

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15728 Control HVAC Parameters by Brain Emotional Learning Based Intelligent Controller (BELBIC)

Authors: Javad Abdi, Azam Famil Khalili

Abstract:

Modeling emotions have attracted much attention in recent years, both in cognitive psychology and design of artificial systems. However, it is a negative factor in decision-making; emotions have shown to be a strong faculty for making fast satisfying decisions. In this paper, we have adapted a computational model based on the limbic system in the mammalian brain for control engineering applications. Learning in this model based on Temporal Difference (TD) Learning, we applied the proposed controller (termed BELBIC) for a simple model of a submarine. The model was supposed to reach the desired depth underwater. Our results demonstrate excellent control action, disturbance handling, and system parameter robustness for TDBELBIC. The proposal method, regarding the present conditions, the system action in the part and the controlling aims, can control the system in a way that these objectives are attained in the least amount of time and the best way.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, temporal difference, brain emotional learning based intelligent controller, heating- ventilating and air conditioning

Procedia PDF Downloads 423