Search results for: uncertainty analysis

Authors: Tapan Kumar Dhar

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How well are our city forms designed to adapt to climate change and its resulting uncertainty? What urban design tools can be used to measure and improve resilience to climate change, and how would they do so? In addressing these questions, this paper considers indeterminacy, a concept originated in the resilience literature, to measure the resilience of built environments. In the realm of urban design, ‘indeterminacy’ can be referred to as built-in design capabilities of an urban system to serve different purposes which are not necessarily predetermined. An urban system, particularly that with a higher degree of indeterminacy, can enable the system to be reorganized and changed to accommodate new or unknown functions while coping with uncertainty over time. Underlying principles of this concept have long been discussed in the urban design and planning literature, including open architecture, landscape urbanism, and flexible housing. This paper argues that the concept indeterminacy holds the potential to reduce the impacts of climate change incrementally and proactively. With regard to sustainable development, both planning and climate change literature highly recommend proactive adaptation as it involves less cost, efforts, and energy than last-minute emergency or reactive actions. Nevertheless, the concept still remains isolated from resilience and climate change adaptation discourses even though the discourses advocate the incremental transformation of a system to cope with climatic uncertainty. This paper considers indeterminacy, as an urban design tool, to measure and increase resilience (and adaptive capacity) of Long Bay’s coastal settlements in Negril, Jamaica. Negril is one of the popular tourism destinations in the Caribbean highly vulnerable to sea-level rise and its associated impacts. This paper employs empirical information obtained from direct observation and informal interviews with local people. While testing the tool, this paper deploys an urban morphology study, which includes land use patterns and the physical characteristics of urban form, including street networks, block patterns, and building footprints. The results reveal that most resorts in Long Bay are designed for pre-determined purposes and offer a little potential to use differently if needed. Additionally, Negril’s street networks are found to be rigid and have limited accessibility to different points of interest. This rigidity can expose the entire infrastructure further to extreme climatic events and also impedes recovery actions after a disaster. However, Long Bay still has room for future resilient developments in other relatively less vulnerable areas. In adapting to climate change, indeterminacy can be reached through design that achieves a balance between the degree of vulnerability and the degree of indeterminacy: the more vulnerable a place is, the more indeterminacy is useful. This paper concludes with a set of urban design typologies to increase the resilience of coastal settlements.

Keywords: climate change adaptation, resilience, sea-level rise, urban form

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Authors: Yashar Ibragimov, Nino Berishvili

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Technological, economic and other innovation-related advances of the 21st century have influenced the old, traditional business models. Presently, organizational change has become an integral part of corporate strategy for the majority of businesses. Such shifts have resulted in both new challenges and opportunities. The expansion of the use of information and communication technologies has driven fundamental shifts towards digital change. Organizations are being forced to revise processes, goals and overall mission in order to stay competitive in the marketplace. However, the implementation of digital transformation brings uncertainty, causes stress and raises concerns about future jobs. The study employs systematic literature review to fill the gap in understanding relationship between employee motivation and commitment during the transformation. A conceptual model proposes the antecedents (OCB and Leader Member Exchange) of employee motivation and investigates its impact on employee commitment to change. The utilized model elucidates how to maintain employee motivation and commitment in the context of organizational transformation and sets the ground for future research.

Keywords: employee motivation, change commitment, change management, leader member exchange, organizational citizenship behavior

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Authors: Rimac Smiljanic Ana, Pepur Sandra, Bulog Ivana

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Financial decision-making in the household is not simple, and it demands that the decision-maker has proper knowledge and skills. Usually, high uncertainty, risk, and stress surround household financial decision-making since it is extremely important and critical for household wealth accumulation and for the well-being of all household members. Generally, skilful people tend to have higher confidence in certain tasks they perform, and they achieve better results. Therefore, in the household context, the possession of certain skills by the ones who make financial decisions for the household is of particular importance. This paper addresses financial literacy as an important skill for household decision-making. Apart from financial literacy, the paper also considers other factors, such as employment, education, and age, as significant for household financial decision-making. The analysis is based on quantitative individual-level survey data. The data collection was conducted during January and February 2021 in Croatia through an online survey. To reach a wide variety of participants, the snowball sampling method was used. The result revealed interesting and somewhat puzzling results. Our results point to the importance of financial literacy skills for household decision-making.

Keywords: skill, financial literacy, decision-making, household financijal decision making

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Authors: Layla El Gaini, Majdouline Belaqziz, Meriem Outaki, Mariam Minhaj

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In this study, it introduce and validate a high-performance liquid chromatography method with diode-array detection (HPLC-DAD) specifically designed for the accurate quantification of caffeic acid in phenolic extracts obtained from olive mill wastewater. The separation process of caffeic acid was effectively achieved through the use of an Acclaim Polar Advantage column (5µm, 250x4.6mm). A meticulous multi-step gradient mobile phase was employed, comprising water acidified with phosphoric acid (pH 2.3) and acetonitrile, to ensure optimal separation. The diode-array detection was adeptly conducted within the UV–VIS spectrum, spanning a range of 200–800 nm, which facilitated precise analytical results. The method underwent comprehensive validation, addressing several essential analytical parameters, including specificity, repeatability, linearity, as well as the limits of detection and quantification, alongside measurement uncertainty. The generated linear standard curves displayed high correlation coefficients, underscoring the method's efficacy and consistency. This validated approach is not only robust but also demonstrates exceptional reliability for the focused analysis of caffeic acid within the intricate matrices of wastewater, thus offering significant potential for applications in environmental and analytical chemistry.

Keywords: high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC-DAD), caffeic acid analysis, olive mill wastewater phenolics, analytical method validation

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Authors: Vinay C. Doranalu, Amba Shetty

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In recent days due to climate change, there is a large variation in spatial distribution of daily rainfall within a small region. Rainfall is one of the main end climatic variables which affect spatio-temporal patterns of water availability. The real task postured by the change in climate is identification, estimation and understanding the uncertainty of rainfall. This study intended to analyze the spatial variations and temporal trends of daily precipitation using high resolution (0.25º x 0.25º) gridded data of Indian Meteorological Department (IMD). For the study, 38 grid points were selected in the study area and analyzed for daily precipitation time series (113 years) over the period 1901-2013. Grid points were divided into two zones based on the elevation and situated location of grid points: Low Land (exposed to sea and low elevated area/ coastal region) and High Land (Interior from sea and high elevated area/western Ghats). Time series were applied to examine the spatial analysis and temporal trends in each grid points by non-parametric Mann-Kendall test and Theil-Sen estimator to perceive the nature of trend and magnitude of slope in trend of rainfall. Pettit-Mann-Whitney test is applied to detect the most probable change point in trends of the time period. Results have revealed remarkable monotonic trend in each grid for daily precipitation of the time series. In general, by the regional cluster analysis found that increasing precipitation trend in shoreline region and decreasing trend in Western Ghats from recent years. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be partly explained by heterogeneity in temporal trends of rainfall by change point analysis. The Mann-Kendall test shows significant variation as weaker rainfall towards the rainfall distribution over eastern parts of the Western Ghats region of Karnataka.

Keywords: change point analysis, coastal region India, gridded rainfall data, non-parametric

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Authors: Meriem Bahij, Ahmed Nafidi, Boujemâa Achchab, Sílvio M. A. Gama, José A. O. Matos

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Stochastic modeling concerns the use of probability to model real-world situations in which uncertainty is present. Therefore, the purpose of stochastic modeling is to estimate the probability of outcomes within a forecast, i.e. to be able to predict what conditions or decisions might happen under different situations. In the present study, we present a model of a stochastic diffusion process based on the bi-Weibull distribution function (its trend is proportional to the bi-Weibull probability density function). In general, the Weibull distribution has the ability to assume the characteristics of many different types of distributions. This has made it very popular among engineers and quality practitioners, who have considered it the most commonly used distribution for studying problems such as modeling reliability data, accelerated life testing, and maintainability modeling and analysis. In this work, we start by obtaining the probabilistic characteristics of this model, as the explicit expression of the process, its trends, and its distribution by transforming the diffusion process in a Wiener process as shown in the Ricciaardi theorem. Then, we develop the statistical inference of this model using the maximum likelihood methodology. Finally, we analyse with simulated data the computational problems associated with the parameters, an issue of great importance in its application to real data with the use of the convergence analysis methods. Overall, the use of a stochastic model reflects only a pragmatic decision on the part of the modeler. According to the data that is available and the universe of models known to the modeler, this model represents the best currently available description of the phenomenon under consideration.

Keywords: diffusion process, discrete sampling, likelihood estimation method, simulation, stochastic diffusion process, trends functions, bi-parameters weibull density function

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Authors: M. Tahir Demirsel, Mustafa Atsan

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Many elements of the environment in which businesses operate today leave them faced with unexpected threats and opportunities. One of the major threats is business crisis. The crisis is a state of affairs in a business wherein the executives must take urgent and unprecedented action to try to save the business from failure. In order to survive in the business environment, organizations should be prepared for the potential crises. Technological developments, uncertainty in the market and the intense competition increase the probability of encountering a crisis for organizations. Therefore, by acting proactively to predict crisis, to detect signals of crisis and be prepared for a crisis by taking necessary precautions accordingly, is of great importance for businesses. In this context, the objective of this study is to reveal that how much organizations are proactive and can predict the future crises and investigate whether they are prepared for possible crises or not. The research was conducted on 222 business executives in one of the major industrial zones of Turkey, Konya Organized Industrial Zone (KOS). The findings are analyzed through descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis. According to the results, it has been observed that organizations cannot predict the crisis signals and are not prepared for potential crises.

Keywords: crisis preparedness, crisis signals, industrial organizations, proactivity

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Authors: Simon Huston, Ebraheim Lahbash, Ali Parsa

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The development of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) into a regional trade, tourism, finance and logistics hub has transformed its real estate markets. However, speculative activity and price volatility remain concerns. UAE residential market values (MV) are exposed to fluctuations in capital flows and migration which in turn are affected by geopolitical uncertainty, oil price volatility, and global investment market sentiment. Internally, a complex interplay between administrative boundaries, land tenure, building quality and evolving location characteristics fragments UAE residential property markets. In short, the UAE Residential Valuation System (UAE-RVS) confronts multiple challenges to collect, filter and analyze relevant information in complex and dynamic spatial and capital markets. A robust (RVS) can mitigate the risk of unhelpful volatility, speculative excess or investment mistakes. The research outlines the institutional, ontological, dynamic, and epistemological issues at play. We highlight the importance of system capabilities, valuation standard salience and stakeholders trust.

Keywords: valuation, property rights, information, institutions, trust, salience

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Authors: Sahand Golmohammadi, Sana Hosseini Shirazi

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Because the status and mechanical parameters of discontinuities in the rock mass are included in the calculations, various methods of rock engineering classification are often used as a starting point for the design of different types of structures. The Q-system is one of the most frequently used methods for stability analysis and determination of support systems of underground structures in rock, including tunnel. In this method, six main parameters of the rock mass, namely, the rock quality designation (RQD), joint set number (Jn), joint roughness number (Jr), joint alteration number (Ja), joint water parameter (Jw) and stress reduction factor (SRF) are required. In this regard, in order to achieve a reasonable and optimal design, identifying the effective parameters for the stability of the mentioned structures is one of the most important goals and the most necessary actions in rock engineering. Therefore, it is necessary to study the relationships between the parameters of a system and how they interact with each other and, ultimately, the whole system. In this research, it has attempted to determine the most effective parameters (key parameters) from the six parameters of rock mass in the Q-system using the rock engineering system (RES) method to improve the relationships between the parameters in the calculation of the Q value. The RES system is, in fact, a method by which one can determine the degree of cause and effect of a system's parameters by making an interaction matrix. In this research, the geomechanical data collected from the water conveyor tunnel of Azad Dam were used to make the interaction matrix of the Q-system. For this purpose, instead of using the conventional methods that are always accompanied by defects such as uncertainty, the Q-system interaction matrix is coded using a technique that is actually a statistical analysis of the data and determining the correlation coefficient between them. So, the effect of each parameter on the system is evaluated with greater certainty. The results of this study show that the formed interaction matrix provides a reasonable estimate of the effective parameters in the Q-system. Among the six parameters of the Q-system, the SRF and Jr parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively, and also the RQD and Jw parameters have the maximum and minimum impact on the system, respectively. Therefore, by developing this method, we can obtain a more accurate relation to the rock mass classification by weighting the required parameters in the Q-system.

Keywords: Q-system, rock engineering system, statistical analysis, rock mass, tunnel

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Authors: Poom Thiparapkul, Tanat Jiravansirikul, Pakpoom Thongsari

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This study explores the design of electric vehicle (EV) dashboards with a focus on user interaction. Findings from a Thai sample reveal a preference for physical buttons over touch interfaces due to their immediate feedback. Touchscreens lack this assurance, leading to potential uncertainty. Users' smartphone experiences create a learning curve that doesn't translate well to in-car touch systems. Gender-wise, females exhibit slightly longer decision times. Designing EV dashboards should consider these factors, prioritizing user experience while avoiding overreliance on smartphone principles. A successful example is Subaru XV's design, which calculates screen angles and button positions for targeted users. In summary, EV dashboards should be intuitive, minimize touch dependency, and accommodate user habits. Balancing modernity with functionality can enhance driving experiences while ensuring safety. A user-centered approach, acknowledging gender differences, will yield efficient and safe driving environments.

Keywords: user experience design, user experience, electric vehicle, dashboard design, Thailand driver.

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Authors: David Yartel, Johnmark Ampomah Mensah Fobi, Ernest Yeboah Acheampong, Sintim Musah

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Football has gone through a series of technological reforms targeted at improving the game for its audience. Yet, promote sanity of the game led to the introduction of the video assistant referee (VAR) to ‘check’ or ‘review’ an incident to clarify incidents and communicate the outcome to the referee and the fans. This is to reduce controversies regarding incidents on the pitch of play. In this study, we seek to survey the views of football fans to understand their perception of the video assistant referee, whether it has brought sanity or reduce the uncertainty regarding the decisions after reviews. The exploratory study focuses on 420 fans arbitrarily sampled on the university campuses to answer questionnaires based on the introduction of the video assistant referee. Results show that the VAR has interrupted the flow of the game, dropping passion, increased controversies including decisions from the referees’ call room leading to ensuing fans conflict, especially when it is against their team and vice versa. The study concludes by addressing some of their concerns as the VAR has come to minimise perceptions of incidents and engender fairness for teams.

Keywords: football fans, football incidents, football match, video assistant referee, technology

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Authors: Bliss Singhal

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Epilepsy is a prevalent neurological disorder affecting approximately 50 million individuals worldwide and 1.2 million Americans. There exist millions of pediatric patients with intractable epilepsy, a condition in which seizures fail to come under control. The occurrence of seizures can result in physical injury, disorientation, unconsciousness, and additional symptoms that could impede children's ability to participate in everyday tasks. Predicting seizures can help parents and healthcare providers take precautions, prevent risky situations, and mentally prepare children to minimize anxiety and nervousness associated with the uncertainty of a seizure. This research proposes a comprehensive framework to predict seizures in pediatric patients by evaluating machine learning algorithms on unimodal neuroimaging data consisting of electroencephalogram signals. The bandpass filtering and independent component analysis proved to be effective in reducing the noise and artifacts from the dataset. Various machine learning algorithms’ performance is evaluated on important metrics such as accuracy, precision, specificity, sensitivity, F1 score and MCC. The results show that the deep learning algorithms are more successful in predicting seizures than logistic Regression, and k nearest neighbors. The recurrent neural network (RNN) gave the highest precision and F1 Score, long short-term memory (LSTM) outperformed RNN in accuracy and convolutional neural network (CNN) resulted in the highest Specificity. This research has significant implications for healthcare providers in proactively managing seizure occurrence in pediatric patients, potentially transforming clinical practices, and improving pediatric care.

Keywords: intractable epilepsy, seizure, deep learning, prediction, electroencephalogram channels

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Authors: Dongkwon Han, Sangho Kim, Sunil Kwon

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Unconventional gas resources have dramatically changed the future energy landscape. Unlike conventional gas resources, the key challenges in unconventional gas have been the requirement that applies to advanced approaches for production forecasting due to uncertainty and complexity of fluid flow. In this study, artificial neural network (ANN) model which integrates machine learning and data-driven approach was developed to predict productivity in shale gas. The database of 129 wells of Eagle Ford shale basin used for testing and training of the ANN model. The Input data related to hydraulic fracturing, well completion and productivity of shale gas were selected and the output data is a cumulative production. The performance of the ANN using all data sets, clustering and variables importance (VI) models were compared in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). ANN model using all data sets, clustering, and VI were obtained as 44.22%, 10.08% (cluster 1), 5.26% (cluster 2), 6.35%(cluster 3), and 32.23% (ANN VI), 23.19% (SVM VI), respectively. The results showed that the pre-trained ANN model provides more accurate results than the ANN model using all data sets.

Keywords: unconventional gas, artificial neural network, machine learning, clustering, variables importance

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Authors: Armana Huq, Wahidur Rahman, Sanwar Kader

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Inland waterways in Bangladesh play an important role in providing comfortable and low-cost transportation. However, a maritime accident takes away many lives and creates unwanted hazards every year. This article deals with a comprehensive review of inland waterway accidents in Bangladesh. Additionally, it includes a comparative study between international and local inland research studies based on maritime accidents. Articles from inland waterway areas are analyzed in-depth to make a comprehensive overview of the nature of the academic work, accident and risk management process and different statistical analyses. It is found that empirical analysis based on the available statistical data dominates the research domain. For this study, major maritime accident-related works in the last four decades in Bangladesh (1981-2020) are being analyzed for preparing a bibliometric analysis. A study of maritime accidents of passenger's vessels during (1995-2005) indicates that the predominant causes of accidents in the inland waterways of Bangladesh are collision and adverse weather (77%), out of which collision due to human error alone stands (56%) of all accidents. Another study refers that the major causes of waterway accidents are the collision (60.3%) during 2005-2015. About 92% of this collision occurs due to direct contact with another vessel during this period. Rest 8% of the collision occurs by contact with permanent obstruction on waterway roots. The overall analysis of another study from the last 25 years (1995-2019) shows that one of the main types of accidents is collisions, with about 50.3% of accidents being caused by collisions. The other accident types are cyclone or storm (17%), overload (11.3%), physical failure (10.3%), excessive waves (5.1%), and others (6%). Very few notable works are available in testing or comparing the methods, proposing new methods for risk management, modeling, uncertainty treatment. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the evolution of marine accident-related research domain regarding inland waterway of Bangladesh and attempts to introduce new ideas and methods to abridge the gap between international and national inland maritime-related work domain which can be a catalyst for a safer and sustainable water transportation system in Bangladesh. Another fundamental objective of this paper is to navigate various national maritime authorities and international organizations to implement risk management processes for shipping accident prevention in waterway areas.

Keywords: inland waterways, safety, bibliometric analysis, risk management, accidents

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Authors: A. Golshani, M. Gharizade Varnusefaderani, S. Majidian

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Underground structures are of those structures that have uncertainty in design procedures. That is due to the complexity of soil condition around. Under passing tunnels are also such affected structures. Despite geotechnical site investigations, lots of uncertainties exist in soil properties due to unknown events. As results, it possibly causes conflicting settlements in numerical analysis with recorded values in the project. This paper aims to report a case study on a specific under passing tunnel constructed by New Austrian Tunnelling Method in Iran. The intended tunnel has an overburden of about 11.3m, the height of 12.2m and, the width of 14.4m with 2.5 traffic lane. The numerical modeling was developed by a 2D finite element program (PLAXIS Version 8). Comparing displacement histories at the ground surface during the entire installation of initial lining, the estimated surface settlement was about four times the field recorded one, which indicates that some local unknown events affect that value. Also, the displacement ratios were in a big difference between the numerical and field data. Consequently, running several numerical back analyses using laboratory and field tests data, the geotechnical parameters were accurately revised to match with the obtained monitoring data. Finally, it was found that usually the values of soil parameters are conservatively low-estimated up to 40 percent by typical engineering judgment. Additionally, it could be attributed to inappropriate constitutive models applied for the specific soil condition.

Keywords: NATM, surface displacement history, numerical back-analysis, geotechnical parameters

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Authors: Nilesh Pancholi, Mangal Bhatt

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This paper highlights comparative results of traditional FMECA and multi-factor decision-making approach based on “Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS)” for aluminum wire rolling mill plant. The suggested study is carried out to overcome the limitations of FMECA by assigning the scores against each failure modes in crisp values to evaluate the criticalities of the failure modes without uncertainty. The primary findings of the paper are that sudden impact on the rolls seems to be most critical failure cause and high contact stresses due to rolling & sliding action of mesh to be least critical failure cause. It is suggested to modify the current control practices with proper maintenance strategy based on achieved maintainability criticality index (MCI). The outcome of the study will be helpful in deriving optimized maintenance plan to maximize the performance of continuous process industry.

Keywords: reliability, maintenance, FMECA, TOPSIS, process industry

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Authors: A. Aulinger, A. M. Backes, J. Bieser, V. Matthias, M. Quante

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High concentrations of particles pose a threat to human health. Thus, legal maximum concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 in ambient air have been steadily decreased over the years. In central Europe, the inorganic species ammonium sulphate and ammonium nitrate make up a large fraction of fine particles. Many studies investigate the influence of emission reductions of sulfur- and nitrogen oxides on aerosol concentration. Here, we focus on the influence of ammonia (NH3) emissions. While emissions of sulphate and nitrogen oxides are quite well known, ammonia emissions are subject to high uncertainty. This is due to the uncertainty of location, amount, time of fertilizer application in agriculture, and the storage and treatment of manure from animal husbandry. For this study, we implemented a crop growth model into the SMOKE emission model. Depending on temperature, local legislation, and crop type individual temporal profiles for fertilizer and manure application are calculated for each model grid cell. Additionally, the diffusion from soils and plants and the direct release from open and closed barns are determined. The emission data was used as input for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. Comparisons to observations from the EMEP measurement network indicate that the new ammonia emission module leads to a better agreement of model and observation (for both ammonia and ammonium). Finally, the ammonia emission model was used to create emission scenarios. This includes emissions based on future European legislation, as well as a dynamic evaluation of the influence of different agricultural sectors on particle formation. It was found that a reduction of ammonia emissions by 50% lead to a 24% reduction of total PM2.5 concentrations during winter time in the model domain. The observed reduction was mainly driven by reduced formation of ammonium nitrate. Moreover, emission reductions during winter had a larger impact than during the rest of the year.

Keywords: ammonia, ammonia abatement strategies, ctm, seasonal impact, secondary aerosol formation

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Authors: Shu Tao, Rong Wang, Huizhong Shen, Ye Huang

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High-resolution mapping of fuel combustion is essential for reducing uncertainties in assessments of greenhouse gases and air pollutant emissions. Such inventories provide valuable information for inferring carbon sinks, modeling pollutant transport, and developing control strategies. Previous inventories included only a few fuel types and were derived using national population proxies which may distort the geographical variation within countries. In this study, a global 0.1 degree by 0.1 degree geo-referenced inventory of fuel combustion (PKU-FUEL-2007) was developed for 64 fuel sub-types along with uncertainty analysis for the year 2007. Sub-national fuel consumption of large countries and major power-station locations were used. The disaggregation error can be reduced significantly by using the sub-nationally energy data, because the uneven distribution of per-capita fuel consumption within countries is taken into consideration. The PKU-FUEL was used to generate global emission inventories of CO2 (PKU-CO2-2007), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PKU-PAHs-2007), and black carbons (PKU-BC-2007). Atmospheric transport modeling and expsoure assessment were conducted for BC and PAHs based on the inventory.

Keywords: fuel, emission, BC, PAHs, atmospheric transport, exposure

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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Introduced by Shannon in 1948 in the field of information theory as the average rate at which information is produced by a stochastic set of data, the concept of entropy has gained much attention as a measure of uncertainty and unpredictability associated with a dynamical system, eventually depicted by a stochastic process. In particular, the Shannon entropy measures the degree of order/disorder of a given signal and provides useful information about the underlying dynamical process. It has found widespread application in a variety of fields, such as, for example, cryptography, statistical physics and finance. In this regard, many contributions have employed different measures of entropy in an attempt to characterize the financial time series in terms of market efficiency, market crashes and/or financial crises. The Shannon entropy has also been considered as a measure of the risk of a portfolio or as a tool in asset pricing. This work investigates the theoretical link between the Shannon entropy and the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm), stochastic process which recently is the focus of a renewed interest in finance as a driving model of stochastic volatility. In particular, after exploring the current state of research in this area and highlighting some of the key results and open questions that remain, we show a well-defined relationship between the Shannon (log)entropy and the memory function H(t) of the mBm. In details, we allow both the length of time series and time scale to change over analysis to study how the relation modify itself. On the one hand, applications are developed after generating surrogates of mBm trajectories based on different memory functions; on the other hand, an empirical analysis of several international stock indexes, which confirms the previous results, concludes the work.

Keywords: Shannon entropy, multifractional Brownian motion, Hurst–Holder exponent, stock indexes

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Authors: Eylem G. Cengiz, Ersin Çilek, Gözde Başkaya, Havva Nur Taş

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It is possible to define the abuse and neglect of the child as a social problem. Such adverse experiences of the child are witnessed by wider social circles as well as his or her immediate environment. The most effective institution among these social circles is the school. The awareness of teachers, administrators, and even auxiliary personnel on this issue can act as a protective and preventive buffer because teachers have the opportunity to be with children every day and constantly observe them; therefore, they can notice the physical and mental changes in students. Furthermore, school administrators have an undeniable role in recognizing and responding to the risk of neglect and abuse. This study aims to evaluate the awareness of school administrators on the risk factors, clues, and ways of intervention towards abuse and neglect through the scenarios given to them. Data were collected from 37 primary, secondary, and high school administrators working in various provinces of Turkey through descriptive and scenario-based questions to determine their general knowledge of the concepts of neglect and abuse and their general tendencies towards practice. Descriptive questions were evaluated with content analysis, and scenario-based questions were evaluated with numerical qualitative data analysis. Concepts and themes were tried to be reached by content analysis from the descriptive data collected. When the results are evaluated in general, it is striking that the concept of child abuse means only sexual abuse for some school administrators. There is an important uncertainty for school administrators in the content of the idea of neglect. When the views on the causes of neglect and abuse are examined, the family factor was seen as the primary source of both neglect and abuse. In addition, among the prevention strategies applied by school administrators, intervention for the family -interviewing and informing- was recommended by only 9 (29%) out of 31 administrators. When the responses to the physical, emotional, and sexual abuse scenarios are examined, it is revealed that the administrators generally realize the abuse but fail to develop an appropriate/whole intervention method. The research results show that school administrators' awareness should be increased. Although administrators have sensitivity towards children, they should be empowered to recognize all types of neglect and abuse and develop appropriate intervention tools.

Keywords: assessment child abuse and neglect, child abuse, child neglect, school administrators

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Authors: S. Łęgowik-Świącik

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This article is a contribution to the research into the determinants of value creation via digital platforms in variable operating conditions. The dynamics of the market environment caused by the COVID-19 pandemic have made enterprises built on digital platforms financially successful. While many classic companies are struggling with the uncertainty of conducting a business and difficulties in the process of value creation, digital platforms create value by modifying the existing business model to meet the changing needs of customers. Therefore, the objective of this publication is to understand and explain the relationship between value creation and the conversion of the business model built on digital platforms under pandemic conditions. The considerations relating to the conceptual framework and determining the research objective allowed for adopting the hypothesis, assuming that the processes of value creation are evolving, and the measurement of these processes allows for the protection of value created and enables its growth in changing circumstances. The research methods, such as critical literature analysis and case study, were applied to accomplish the objective pursued and verify the hypothesis formulated. The empirical research was carried out based on the data from enterprises listed on the Nasdaq Stock Exchange: Amazon, Alibaba, and Facebook. The research period was the years 2018-2021. The surveyed enterprises were chosen based on the targeted selection. The problem discussed is important and current since the lack of in-depth theoretical research results in few attempts to identify the determinants of value creation via digital platforms. The above arguments led to an attempt at theoretical analysis and empirical research to fill in the gap perceived by deepening the understanding of the process of value creation through network effects via digital platforms under pandemic conditions.

Keywords: business model, digital platforms, enterprise management, pandemic conditions, value creation process

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Authors: Rawan K. Al-Duaij, Salem A. Al-Salem

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Projects, the unique and temporary process of achieving a set of requirements have always been challenging; Planning the schedule and budget, managing the resources and risks are mostly driven by a similar past experience or the technical consultations of experts in the matter. With that complexity of Projects in Scope, Time, and execution environment, Adjustment Orders are tools to reflect changes to the original project parameters after Contract signature. Adjustment Orders are the official/legal amendments to the terms and conditions of a live Contract. Reasons for issuing Adjustment Orders arise from changes in Contract scope, technical requirement and specification resulting in scope addition, deletion, or alteration. It can be as well a combination of most of these parameters resulting in an increase or decrease in time and/or cost. Most business leaders (handling projects in the interest of the owner) refrain from using Adjustment Orders considering their main objectives of staying within budget and on schedule. Success in managing the changes results in uninterrupted execution and agreed project costs as well as schedule. Nevertheless, this is not always practically achievable. In this paper, a detailed study through utilizing Industrial Engineering & Systems Management tools such as Six Sigma, Data Analysis, and Quality Control were implemented on the organization’s five years records of the issued Adjustment Orders in order to investigate their prevalence, and time and cost impact. The analysis outcome revealed and helped to identify and categorize the predominant causations with the highest impacts, which were considered most in recommending the corrective measures to reach the objective of minimizing the Adjustment Orders impacts. Data analysis demonstrated no specific trend in the AO frequency in past five years; however, time impact is more than the cost impact. Although Adjustment Orders might never be avoidable; this analysis offers’ some insight to the procedural gaps, and where it is highly impacting the organization. Possible solutions are concluded such as improving project handling team’s coordination and communication, utilizing a blanket service contract, and modifying the projects gate system procedures to minimize the possibility of having similar struggles in future. Projects in the Oil and Gas sector are always evolving and demand a certain amount of flexibility to sustain the goals of the field. As it will be demonstrated, the uncertainty of project parameters, in adequate project definition, operational constraints and stringent procedures are main factors resulting in the need for Adjustment Orders and accordingly the recommendation will be to address that challenge.

Keywords: adjustment orders, data analysis, oil and gas sector, systems management

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Authors: E. T. Carvalho Filho, J. T. N. Medeiros, L. G. Martinez

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Residual stresses are self equilibrating in a rigid body that acts on the microstructure of the material without application of an external load. They are elastic stresses and can be induced by mechanical, thermal and chemical processes causing a deformation gradient in the crystal lattice favoring premature failure in mechanicals components. The search for measurements with good reliability has been of great importance for the manufacturing industries. Several methods are able to quantify these stresses according to physical principles and the response of the mechanical behavior of the material. The diffraction X-ray technique is one of the most sensitive techniques for small variations of the crystalline lattice since the X-ray beam interacts with the interplanar distance. Being very sensitive technique is also susceptible to variations in measurements requiring a study of the factors that influence the final result of the measurement. Instrumental, operational factors, form deviations of the samples and geometry of analyzes are some variables that need to be considered and analyzed in order for the true measurement. The aim of this work is to analyze the sources of errors inherent to the residual stress measurement process by X-ray diffraction technique making an interlaboratory comparison to verify the reproducibility of the measurements. In this work, two specimens were machined, differing from each other by the surface finishing: grinding and polishing. Additionally, iron powder with particle size less than 45 µm was selected in order to be a reference (as recommended by ASTM E915 standard) for the tests. To verify the deviations caused by the equipment, those specimens were positioned and with the same analysis condition, seven measurements were carried out at 11Ψ tilts. To verify sample positioning errors, seven measurements were performed by positioning the sample at each measurement. To check geometry errors, measurements were repeated for the geometry and Bragg Brentano parallel beams. In order to verify the reproducibility of the method, the measurements were performed in two different laboratories and equipments. The results were statistically worked out and the quantification of the errors.

Keywords: residual stress, x-ray diffraction, repeatability, reproducibility, error analysis

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Authors: D. Osborn, L. Easthope

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The increasing threat of ‘marauding terror,' utilising improvised explosive devices and firearms, has focused the attention of policy makers and emergency responders once again on the treatment of the critically injured patient in a highly volatile scenario. Whilst there have been significant improvements made in the response and lessons learned from recent disasters in the international disaster community there still remain areas of uncertainty and a lack of clarity in the care of the critically injured. This innovative, longitudinal study has at its heart the aim of using ethnographic methods to ‘slow down’ the journey such patients will take and make visible the ethical complexities that 2017 technologies, expectations and over a decade of improved combat medicine techniques have brought. The primary researcher, previously employed in the hospital emergency management environment, has closely followed responders as they managed casualties with life-threatening injuries. Ethnographic observation of Exercise Unified Response in March 2016, exposed the ethical and legal 'vacuums' within a mass casualty and fatality setting, specifically the extrication, treatment and care of critically injured patients from crushed and overturned train carriages. This article highlights a gap in the debate, evaluation, planning and response to an incident of this nature specifically the incapacitated, unidentified patients and the ethics of submitting them to the invasive ‘Disaster Victim Identification’ process. Using a qualitative ethnographic analysis, triangulating observation, interviews and documentation, this analysis explores the gaps and highlights the next stages in the researcher’s pathway as she continues to explore with emergency practitioners some of this century’s most difficult questions in relation to the medico-legal and ethical challenges faced by emergency services in the wake of new and emerging threats and medical treatment expectations.

Keywords: ethics, disaster, Disaster Victim Identification (DVI), legality, unidentified

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Authors: Hossein Gitinavard, Mohammad Hossein Fazel Zarandi

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In the last decades, concerns about the environmental issues lead to professional and academic efforts on green supplier selection problems. In this sake, one of the main issues in evaluating the green supplier selection problems, which could increase the uncertainty, is the preferences of the experts' judgments about the candidate green suppliers. Therefore, preparing an expert system to evaluate the problem based on the historical data and the experts' knowledge can be sensible. This study provides an expert evaluation system to assess the candidate green suppliers under selected criteria in a multi-period approach. In addition, a ranking approach under interval-valued hesitant fuzzy set (IVHFS) environment is proposed to select the most appropriate green supplier in planning horizon. In the proposed ranking approach, the IVHFS and the last aggregation approach are considered to margin the errors and to prevent data loss, respectively. Hence, a comparative analysis is provided based on an illustrative example to show the feasibility of the proposed approach.

Keywords: green supplier selection, expert system, ranking approach, interval-valued hesitant fuzzy setting

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Authors: Oladipo Joseph Ajayi, Yakubu Muhammed, Raufu Olusola Sanusi

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This study determined the perceived effect of livelihood diversification on welfare of rural household in Niger state, Nigeria. Multi-stage sampling technique was adopted for sampling the respondents. Data used for the study were obtained from primary source. Structured questionnaire with interview schedule was administered to 180 randomly selected rural farmers in the study area. Descriptive statistics analysis and z-test statistics were used to analyse the data collected. The study revealed the mean age of the household to be 43 years, mean years of schooling was 8.5, mean household size was 6 people, mean farming experience of 17.5 years and mean farm size of 1.8 hectares. The effect of livelihood diversification revealed that livelihood diversification had positive and significant effect on food security (65.6%) and income generation (66.8%) in the study area. The major constraints to diversification in the study area were poor infrastructure, unavailability of credit and climatic risk and uncertainty. The study, therefore, recommended that rural household should be sensitised to diversify their income source into non-farm activities.

Keywords: income, livelihood diversification , rural household, welfare

Procedia PDF Downloads 384

Authors: Farhat Ullah

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It is very unfortunate that in Pakistani public schools political interference is on its peak. The present study tries to find out the effect of the interference of political elected members in the affairs of public schools. The objectives of the study were to find out, the degree of interference of political members in public school, the positive and negative effects of political members, influence in public schools, students, and its administrators. This study was quantitative in nature. All the public schools in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa were the population of this study. A sample of 400 teachers and 100 schools heads were selected for this study. A survey questionnaire consisted of 50 items related to objectives, was used for this study. The questionnaire consisted of five options based on Likert scale. Data were collected by the researcher himself from the respondents. Data were analyzed using chi square test. It was concluded from the analysis of data that recently the political members are involved in the process of school activities, which had badly affected the freedom and autonomy of school administrators. Mostly teachers are transferred from schools on political influence, which had created uncertainty among the schools teachers. Further, the student’s academic performance was also affected badly. It is recommended that schools must be free from political involvement for the smooth running of schools.

Keywords: public schools, politics, interference, performance

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Authors: F. Felipe

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Air Defense Systems contain high-value assets that are expected to fulfill their mission for several years - in many cases, even decades - while operating in a fast-changing, technology-driven environment. Thus, it is paramount that decision-makers can assess how effective an Air Defense System is in the face of new developing threats, as well as to identify the bottlenecks that could jeopardize the security of the airspace of a country. Given the broad extent of activities and the great variety of assets necessary to achieve the strategic objectives, a systems approach was taken in order to delineate the core requirements and the physical architecture of an Air Defense System. Then, value-focused thinking helped in the definition of the measures of effectiveness. Furthermore, analytical methods were applied to create a formal structure that preliminarily assesses such measures. To validate the proposed methodology, a powerful simulation was also used to determine the measures of effectiveness, now in more complex environments that incorporate both uncertainty and multiple interactions of the entities. The results regarding the validity of this methodology suggest that the approach can support decisions aimed at enhancing the capabilities of Air Defense Systems. In conclusion, this paper sheds some light on how consolidated approaches of Systems Engineering and Operations Research can be used as valid techniques for solving problems regarding a complex and yet vital matter.

Keywords: air defense, effectiveness, system, simulation, decision-support

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Authors: Hasti Abbasi

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Creative writers have long followed the tradition of romantic exile, looking inward in an attempt to construct new viewpoints through the power of imagination. The writer, who attempts to resist uncertainty and locate her place in the new country through writing, resists creativity itself. For a writer, certain satisfaction can be achieved through producing a creative art away from the anxiety of the sense of dislocation. Dislocation, whether enforced or self-inflicted, could in many ways be a disaster but it could also cultivate a greater creative capacity and be a source of creative expression. This paper will investigate the idea of the creative writer as exiled self through reflections on the relationship between dislocation and writing.

Keywords: dislocation, creative writing, remaking identity, exile literature

Procedia PDF Downloads 268

Authors: Amberly Brigden, Ali Heawood, Emma C. Anderson, Richard Morris, Esther Crawley

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Background: Paediatric chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS)/myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME) is characterised by persistent, disabling fatigue. Health services see patients below the age of 12. This age group experience high levels of disability, with low levels of school attendance, high levels of fatigue, anxiety, functional disability and pain. CFS/ME interventions have been developed for adolescents, but the developmental needs of younger children suggest treatment should be tailored to this age group. Little is known about how intervention should be delivered to this age group, and further work is needed to explore this. Qualitative research aids patient-centered design of health intervention. Methods: Five to 11-year-olds and their parents were recruited from a specialist CFS/ME service. Semi-structured interviews explored the families’ experience of the condition and perspectives on treatment. Interactive and arts-based methods were used. Interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and analysed thematically. Qualitative Results: 14 parents and 7 children were interviewed. Early analysis of the interviews revealed the importance of the social-ecological setting of the child, which led to themes being developed in the context of Systems Theory. Theme one relates to the level of the child, theme two the family system, theme three the organisational and societal systems, and theme four cuts-across all levels. Theme1: The child’s capacity to describe, understand and manage their condition. Younger children struggled to describe their internal experiences, such as physical symptoms. Parents felt younger children did not understand some concepts of CFS/ME and did not have the capabilities to monitor and self-regulate their behaviour, as required by treatment. A spectrum of abilities was described; older children (10-11-year-olds) were more involved in clinical sessions and had more responsibility for self-management. Theme2: Parents’ responsibility for managing their child’s condition. Parents took responsibility for regulating their child’s behaviour in accordance with the treatment programme. They structured their child’s environment, gave direct instructions to their child, and communicated the needs of their child to others involved in care. Parents wanted their child to experience a 'normal' childhood and took steps to shield their child from medicalization, including diagnostic labels and clinical discussions. Theme3: Parental isolation and the role of organisational and societal systems. Parents felt unsupported in their role of managing the condition and felt negative responses from primary care health services and schools were underpinned by a lack of awareness and knowledge about CFS/ME in younger children. This sometimes led to a protracted time to diagnosis. Parents felt that schools have the potential important role in managing the child’s condition. Theme4: Complexity and uncertainty. Many parents valued specialist treatment (which included activity management, physiotherapy, sleep management, dietary advice, medical management and psychological support), but felt it needed to account for the complexity of the condition in younger children. Some parents expressed uncertainty about the diagnosis and the treatment programme. Conclusions: Interventions for younger children need to consider the 'systems' (family, organisational and societal) involved in the child’s care. Future research will include interviews with clinicians and schools supporting younger children with CFS/ME.

Keywords: chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS)/myalgic encephalomyelitis (ME), pediatric, qualitative, treatment

Procedia PDF Downloads 111