Search results for: total vector error
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 11232

Search results for: total vector error

10932 Support Vector Machine Based Retinal Therapeutic for Glaucoma Using Machine Learning Algorithm

Authors: P. S. Jagadeesh Kumar, Mingmin Pan, Yang Yung, Tracy Lin Huan

Abstract:

Glaucoma is a group of visual maladies represented by the scheduled optic nerve neuropathy; means to the increasing dwindling in vision ground, resulting in loss of sight. In this paper, a novel support vector machine based retinal therapeutic for glaucoma using machine learning algorithm is conservative. The algorithm has fitting pragmatism; subsequently sustained on correlation clustering mode, it visualizes perfect computations in the multi-dimensional space. Support vector clustering turns out to be comparable to the scale-space advance that investigates the cluster organization by means of a kernel density estimation of the likelihood distribution, where cluster midpoints are idiosyncratic by the neighborhood maxima of the concreteness. The predicted planning has 91% attainment rate on data set deterrent on a consolidation of 500 realistic images of resolute and glaucoma retina; therefore, the computational benefit of depending on the cluster overlapping system pedestal on machine learning algorithm has complete performance in glaucoma therapeutic.

Keywords: machine learning algorithm, correlation clustering mode, cluster overlapping system, glaucoma, kernel density estimation, retinal therapeutic

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10931 The Linear Combination of Kernels in the Estimation of the Cumulative Distribution Functions

Authors: Abdel-Razzaq Mugdadi, Ruqayyah Sani

Abstract:

The Kernel Distribution Function Estimator (KDFE) method is the most popular method for nonparametric estimation of the cumulative distribution function. The kernel and the bandwidth are the most important components of this estimator. In this investigation, we replace the kernel in the KDFE with a linear combination of kernels to obtain a new estimator based on the linear combination of kernels, the mean integrated squared error (MISE), asymptotic mean integrated squared error (AMISE) and the asymptotically optimal bandwidth for the new estimator are derived. We propose a new data-based method to select the bandwidth for the new estimator. The new technique is based on the Plug-in technique in density estimation. We evaluate the new estimator and the new technique using simulations and real-life data.

Keywords: estimation, bandwidth, mean square error, cumulative distribution function

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10930 Seasonal Influence on Environmental Indicators of Beach Waste

Authors: Marcus C. Garcia, Giselle C. Guimarães, Luciana H. Yamane, Renato R. Siman

Abstract:

The environmental indicators and the classification of beach waste are essential tools to diagnose the current situation and to indicate ways to improve the quality of this environment. The purpose of this paper was to perform a quali-quantitative analysis of the beach waste on the Curva da Jurema Beach (Espírito Santo - Brazil). Three transects were used with equidistant positioning over the total length of the beach for the solid waste collection. Solid wastes were later classified according to their use and primary raw material from the low and high summer season. During the low season, average values of 7.10 items.m-1, 18.22 g.m-1 and 0.91 g.m-2 were found for the whole beach, and transect 3 contributed the most waste, with the total sum of items equal to 999 (49%), a total mass of 5.62 kg and a total volume of 21.31 L. During the high summer season, average values of 8.22 items.m-1, 54.40 g.m-1 and 2.72 g.m-2 were found, with transect 2 contributing the most to the total sum with 1,212 items (53%), a total mass of 10.76 kg and a total volume of 51.99 L. Of the total collected, plastic materials represented 51.4% of the total number of items, 35.9% of the total mass and 68% of the total volume. The implementation of reactive and proactive measures is necessary so that the management of the solid wastes on Curva da Jurema Beach is in accordance with principles of sustainability.

Keywords: beach solid waste, environmental indicators, quali-quantitative analysis, waste management

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10929 Support Vector Regression Combined with Different Optimization Algorithms to Predict Global Solar Radiation on Horizontal Surfaces in Algeria

Authors: Laidi Maamar, Achwak Madani, Abdellah El Ahdj Abdellah

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to use Support Vector regression (SVR) combined with dragonfly, firefly, Bee Colony and particle swarm Optimization algorithm to predict global solar radiation on horizontal surfaces in some cities in Algeria. Combining these optimization algorithms with SVR aims principally to enhance accuracy by fine-tuning the parameters, speeding up the convergence of the SVR model, and exploring a larger search space efficiently; these parameters are the regularization parameter (C), kernel parameters, and epsilon parameter. By doing so, the aim is to improve the generalization and predictive accuracy of the SVR model. Overall, the aim is to leverage the strengths of both SVR and optimization algorithms to create a more powerful and effective regression model for various cities and under different climate conditions. Results demonstrate close agreement between predicted and measured data in terms of different metrics. In summary, SVM has proven to be a valuable tool in modeling global solar radiation, offering accurate predictions and demonstrating versatility when combined with other algorithms or used in hybrid forecasting models.

Keywords: support vector regression (SVR), optimization algorithms, global solar radiation prediction, hybrid forecasting models

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10928 Application of Machine Learning Techniques in Forest Cover-Type Prediction

Authors: Saba Ebrahimi, Hedieh Ashrafi

Abstract:

Predicting the cover type of forests is a challenge for natural resource managers. In this project, we aim to perform a comprehensive comparative study of two well-known classification methods, support vector machine (SVM) and decision tree (DT). The comparison is first performed among different types of each classifier, and then the best of each classifier will be compared by considering different evaluation metrics. The effect of boosting and bagging for decision trees is also explored. Furthermore, the effect of principal component analysis (PCA) and feature selection is also investigated. During the project, the forest cover-type dataset from the remote sensing and GIS program is used in all computations.

Keywords: classification methods, support vector machine, decision tree, forest cover-type dataset

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10927 High Performance of Direct Torque and Flux Control of a Double Stator Induction Motor Drive with a Fuzzy Stator Resistance Estimator

Authors: K. Kouzi

Abstract:

In order to have stable and high performance of direct torque and flux control (DTFC) of double star induction motor drive (DSIM), proper on-line adaptation of the stator resistance is very important. This is inevitably due to the variation of the stator resistance during operating conditions, which introduces error in estimated flux position and the magnitude of the stator flux. Error in the estimated stator flux deteriorates the performance of the DTFC drive. Also, the effect of error in estimation is very important especially at low speed. Due to this, our aim is to overcome the sensitivity of the DTFC to the stator resistance variation by proposing on-line fuzzy estimation stator resistance. The fuzzy estimation method is based on an on-line stator resistance correction through the variations of the stator current estimation error and its variations. The fuzzy logic controller gives the future stator resistance increment at the output. The main advantage of the suggested algorithm control is to avoid the drive instability that may occur in certain situations and ensure the tracking of the actual stator resistance. The validity of the technique and the improvement of the whole system performance are proved by the results.

Keywords: direct torque control, dual stator induction motor, Fuzzy Logic estimation, stator resistance adaptation

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10926 Towards Automatic Calibration of In-Line Machine Processes

Authors: David F. Nettleton, Elodie Bugnicourt, Christian Wasiak, Alejandro Rosales

Abstract:

In this presentation, preliminary results are given for the modeling and calibration of two different industrial winding MIMO (Multiple Input Multiple Output) processes using machine learning techniques. In contrast to previous approaches which have typically used ‘black-box’ linear statistical methods together with a definition of the mechanical behavior of the process, we use non-linear machine learning algorithms together with a ‘white-box’ rule induction technique to create a supervised model of the fitting error between the expected and real force measures. The final objective is to build a precise model of the winding process in order to control de-tension of the material being wound in the first case, and the friction of the material passing through the die, in the second case. Case 1, Tension Control of a Winding Process. A plastic web is unwound from a first reel, goes over a traction reel and is rewound on a third reel. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the web tension and (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given tension. Case 2, Friction Force Control of a Micro-Pullwinding Process. A core+resin passes through a first die, then two winding units wind an outer layer around the core, and a final pass through a second die. The objectives are: (i) to train a model to predict the friction on die2; (ii) calibration to find the input values which result in a given friction on die2. Different machine learning approaches are tested to build models, Kernel Ridge Regression, Support Vector Regression (with a Radial Basis Function Kernel) and MPART (Rule Induction with continuous value as output). As a previous step, the MPART rule induction algorithm was used to build an explicative model of the error (the difference between expected and real friction on die2). The modeling of the error behavior using explicative rules is used to help improve the overall process model. Once the models are built, the inputs are calibrated by generating Gaussian random numbers for each input (taking into account its mean and standard deviation) and comparing the output to a target (desired) output until a closest fit is found. The results of empirical testing show that a high precision is obtained for the trained models and for the calibration process. The learning step is the slowest part of the process (max. 5 minutes for this data), but this can be done offline just once. The calibration step is much faster and in under one minute obtained a precision error of less than 1x10-3 for both outputs. To summarize, in the present work two processes have been modeled and calibrated. A fast processing time and high precision has been achieved, which can be further improved by using heuristics to guide the Gaussian calibration. Error behavior has been modeled to help improve the overall process understanding. This has relevance for the quick optimal set up of many different industrial processes which use a pull-winding type process to manufacture fibre reinforced plastic parts. Acknowledgements to the Openmind project which is funded by Horizon 2020 European Union funding for Research & Innovation, Grant Agreement number 680820

Keywords: data model, machine learning, industrial winding, calibration

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10925 Modeling of Diurnal Pattern of Air Temperature in a Tropical Environment: Ile-Ife and Ibadan, Nigeria

Authors: Rufus Temidayo Akinnubi, M. O. Adeniyi

Abstract:

Existing diurnal air temperature models simulate night time air temperature over Nigeria with high biases. An improved parameterization is presented for modeling the diurnal pattern of air temperature (Ta) which is applicable in the calculation of turbulent heat fluxes in Global climate models, based on Nigeria Micrometeorological Experimental site (NIMEX) surface layer observations. Five diurnal Ta models for estimating hourly Ta from daily maximum, daily minimum, and daily mean air temperature were validated using root-mean-square error (RMSE), Mean Error Bias (MBE) and scatter graphs. The original Fourier series model showed better performance for unstable air temperature parameterizations while the stable Ta was strongly overestimated with a large error. The model was improved with the inclusion of the atmospheric cooling rate that accounts for the temperature inversion that occurs during the nocturnal boundary layer condition. The MBE and RMSE estimated by the modified Fourier series model reduced by 4.45 oC and 3.12 oC during the transitional period from dry to wet stable atmospheric conditions. The modified Fourier series model gave good estimation of the diurnal weather patterns of Ta when compared with other existing models for a tropical environment.

Keywords: air temperature, mean bias error, Fourier series analysis, surface energy balance,

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10924 Is the Okun's Law Valid in Tunisia?

Authors: El Andari Chifaa, Bouaziz Rached

Abstract:

The central focus of this paper was to check whether the Okun’s law in Tunisia is valid or not. For this purpose, we have used quarterly time series data during the period 1990Q1-2014Q1. Firstly, we applied the error correction model instead of the difference version of Okun's Law, the Engle-Granger and Johansen test are employed to find out long run association between unemployment, production, and how error correction mechanism (ECM) is used for short run dynamic. Secondly, we used the gap version of Okun’s law where the estimation is done from three band pass filters which are mathematical tools used in macro-economic and especially in business cycles theory. The finding of the study indicates that the inverse relationship between unemployment and output is verified in the short and long term, and the Okun's law holds for the Tunisian economy, but with an Okun’s coefficient lower than required. Therefore, our empirical results have important implications for structural and cyclical policymakers in Tunisia to promote economic growth in a context of lower unemployment growth.

Keywords: Okun’s law, validity, unit root, cointegration, error correction model, bandpass filters

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10923 Generator Subgraphs of the Wheel

Authors: Neil M. Mame

Abstract:

We consider only finite graphs without loops nor multiple edges. Let G be a graph with E(G) = {e1, e2, …., em}. The edge space of G, denoted by ε(G), is a vector space over the field Z2. The elements of ε(G) are all the subsets of E(G). Vector addition is defined as X+Y = X Δ Y, the symmetric difference of sets X and Y, for X, Y ∈ ε(G). Scalar multiplication is defined as 1.X =X and 0.X = Ø for X ∈ ε(G). The set S ⊆ ε(G) is called a generating set if every element ε(G) is a linear combination of the elements of S. For a non-empty set X ∈ ε(G), the smallest subgraph with edge set X is called edge-induced subgraph of G, denoted by G[X]. The set EH(G) = { A ∈ ε(G) : G[A] ≅ H } denotes the uniform set of H with respect to G and εH(G) denotes the subspace of ε(G) generated by EH(G). If εH(G) is generating set, then we call H a generator subgraph of G. This paper gives the characterization for the generator subgraphs of the wheel that contain cycles and gives the necessary conditions for the acyclic generator subgraphs of the wheel.

Keywords: edge space, edge-induced subgraph, generator subgraph, wheel

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10922 One Species into Five: Nucleo-Mito Barcoding Reveals Cryptic Species in 'Frankliniella Schultzei Complex': Vector for Tospoviruses

Authors: Vikas Kumar, Kailash Chandra, Kaomud Tyagi

Abstract:

The insect order Thysanoptera includes small insects commonly called thrips. As insect vectors, only thrips are capable of Tospoviruses transmission (genus Tospovirus, family Bunyaviridae) affecting various crops. Currently, fifteen species of subfamily Thripinae (Thripidae) have been reported as vectors for tospoviruses. Frankliniella schultzei, which is reported as act as a vector for at least five tospovirses, have been suspected to be a species complex with more than one species. It is one of the historical unresolved issues where, two species namely, F. schultzei Trybom and F. sulphurea Schmutz were erected from South Africa and Srilanaka respectively. These two species were considered to be valid until 1968 when sulphurea was treated as colour morph (pale form) and synonymised under schultzei (dark form) However, these two have been considered as valid species by some of the thrips workers. Parallel studies have indicated that brown form of schultzei is a vector for tospoviruses while yellow form is a non-vector. However, recent studies have shown that yellow populations have also been documented as vectors. In view of all these facts, it is highly important to have a clear understanding whether these colour forms represent true species or merely different populations with different vector carrying capacities and whether there is some hidden diversity in 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex'. In this study, we aim to study the 'Frankliniella schultzei species complex' with molecular spectacles with DNA data from India and Australia and Africa. A total of fifty-five specimens was collected from diverse locations in India and Australia. We generated molecular data using partial fragments of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I gene (mtCOI) and 28S rRNA gene. For COI dataset, there were seventy-four sequences, out of which data on fifty-five was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. All the four different tree construction methods: neighbor-joining, maximum parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis, yielded the same tree topology and produced five cryptic species with high genetic divergence. For, rDNA, there were forty-five sequences, out of which data on thirty-nine was generated in the current study and others were retrieved from NCBI. The four tree building methods yielded four cryptic species with high bootstrap support value/posterior probability. Here we could not retrieve one cryptic species from South Africa as we could not generate data on rDNA from South Africa and sequence for rDNA from African region were not available in the database. The results of multiple species delimitation methods (barcode index numbers, automatic barcode gap discovery, general mixed Yule-coalescent, and Poisson-tree-processes) also supported the phylogenetic data and produced 5 and 4 Molecular Operational Taxonomic Units (MOTUs) for mtCOI and 28S dataset respectively. These results of our study indicate the likelihood that F. sulphurea may be a valid species, however, more morphological and molecular data is required on specimens from type localities of these two species and comparison with type specimens.

Keywords: DNA barcoding, species complex, thrips, species delimitation

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10921 IPO Valuation and Profitability Expectations: Evidence from the Italian Exchange

Authors: Matteo Bonaventura, Giancarlo Giudici

Abstract:

This paper analyses the valuation process of companies listed on the Italian Exchange in the period 2000-2009 at their Initial Public Offering (IPO). One the most common valuation techniques declared in the IPO prospectus to determine the offer price is the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. We develop a ‘reverse engineering’ model to discover the short term profitability implied in the offer prices. We show that there is a significant optimistic bias in the estimation of future profitability compared to ex-post actual realization and the mean forecast error is substantially large. Yet we show that such error characterizes also the estimations carried out by analysts evaluating non-IPO companies. The forecast error is larger the faster has been the recent growth of the company, the higher is the leverage of the IPO firm, the more companies issued equity on the market. IPO companies generally exhibit better operating performance before the listing, with respect to comparable listed companies, while after the flotation they do not perform significantly different in term of return on invested capital. Pre-IPO book building activity plays a significant role in partially reducing the forecast error and revising expectations, while the market price of the first day of trading does not contain information for further reducing forecast errors.

Keywords: initial public offerings, DCF, book building, post-IPO profitability drop

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10920 Study on Accurate Calculation Method of Model Attidude on Wind Tunnel Test

Authors: Jinjun Jiang, Lianzhong Chen, Rui Xu

Abstract:

The accurate of model attitude angel plays an important role on the aerodynamic test results in the wind tunnel test. The original method applies the spherical coordinate system transformation to obtain attitude angel calculation.The model attitude angel is obtained by coordinate transformation and spherical surface mapping applying the nominal attitude angel (the balance attitude angel in the wind tunnel coordinate system) indicated by the mechanism. First, the coordinate transformation of this method is not only complex but also difficult to establish the transformed relationship between the space coordinate systems especially after many steps of coordinate transformation, moreover it cannot realize the iterative calculation of the interference relationship between attitude angels; Second, during the calculate process to solve the problem the arc is approximately used to replace the straight line, the angel for the tangent value, and the inverse trigonometric function is applied. Therefore, in the calculation of attitude angel, the process is complex and inaccurate, which can be solved approximately when calculating small attack angel. However, with the advancing development of modern aerodynamic unsteady research, the aircraft tends to develop high or super large attack angel and unsteadyresearch field.According to engineering practice and vector theory, the concept of vector angel coordinate systemis proposed for the first time, and the vector angel coordinate system of attitude angel is established.With the iterative correction calculation and avoiding the problem of approximate and inverse trigonometric function solution, the model attitude calculation process is carried out in detail, which validates that the calculation accuracy and accuracy of model attitude angels are improved.Based on engineering and theoretical methods, a vector angel coordinate systemis established for the first time, which gives the transformation and angel definition relations between different flight attitude coordinate systems, that can accurately calculate the attitude angel of the corresponding coordinate systemand determine its direction, especially in the channel coupling calculation, the calculation of the attitude angel between the coordinate systems is only related to the angel, and has nothing to do with the change order s of the coordinate system, whichsimplifies the calculation process.

Keywords: attitude angel, angel vector coordinate system, iterative calculation, spherical coordinate system, wind tunnel test

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10919 Automatic Facial Skin Segmentation Using Possibilistic C-Means Algorithm for Evaluation of Facial Surgeries

Authors: Elham Alaee, Mousa Shamsi, Hossein Ahmadi, Soroosh Nazem, Mohammad Hossein Sedaaghi

Abstract:

Human face has a fundamental role in the appearance of individuals. So the importance of facial surgeries is undeniable. Thus, there is a need for the appropriate and accurate facial skin segmentation in order to extract different features. Since Fuzzy C-Means (FCM) clustering algorithm doesn’t work appropriately for noisy images and outliers, in this paper we exploit Possibilistic C-Means (PCM) algorithm in order to segment the facial skin. For this purpose, first, we convert facial images from RGB to YCbCr color space. To evaluate performance of the proposed algorithm, the database of Sahand University of Technology, Tabriz, Iran was used. In order to have a better understanding from the proposed algorithm; FCM and Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithms are also used for facial skin segmentation. The proposed method shows better results than the other segmentation methods. Results include misclassification error (0.032) and the region’s area error (0.045) for the proposed algorithm.

Keywords: facial image, segmentation, PCM, FCM, skin error, facial surgery

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10918 Bacterial Flora of the Anopheles Fluviatilis S. L. in an Endemic Malaria Area in Southeastern Iran for Candidate Paraterasgenesis Strains

Authors: Seyed Hassan Moosa-kazemi, Jalal Mohammadi Soleimani, Hassan Vatandoost, Mohammad Hassan Shirazi, Sara Hajikhani, Roonak Bakhtiari, Morteza Akbari, Siamak Hydarzadeh

Abstract:

Malaria is an infectious disease and considered most important health problems in the southeast of Iran. Iran is elimination malaria phase and new tool need to vector control. Paraterasgenesis is a new way to cut of life cycle of the malaria parasite. In this study, the microflora of the surface and gut of various stages of Anopheles fluviatilis James as one of the important malaria vector was studied using biochemical and molecular techniques during 2013-2014. Twelve bacteria species were found including; Providencia rettgeri, Morganella morganii, Enterobacter aerogenes, Pseudomonas oryzihabitans, Citrobacter braakii، Citrobacter freundii، Aeromonas hydrophila، Klebsiella oxytoca, Citrobacter koseri, Serratia fonticola، Enterobacter sakazakii and Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. The species of Alcaligenes faecalis, Providencia vermicola and Enterobacter hormaechei were identified in various stages of the vector and confirmed by biochemical and molecular techniques. We found Providencia rettgeri proper candidate for paratransgenesis.

Keywords: Anopheles fluviatilis, bacteria, malaria, Paraterasgenesis, Southern Iran

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10917 Low-Cost Reversible Logic Serial Multipliers with Error Detection Capability

Authors: Mojtaba Valinataj

Abstract:

Nowadays reversible logic has received many attentions as one of the new fields for reducing the power consumption. On the other hand, the processing systems have weaknesses against different external effects. In this paper, some error detecting reversible logic serial multipliers are proposed by incorporating the parity-preserving gates. This way, the new designs are presented for signed parity-preserving serial multipliers based on the Booth's algorithm by exploiting the new arrangements of existing gates. The experimental results show that the proposed 4×4 multipliers in this paper reach up to 20%, 35%, and 41% enhancements in the number of constant inputs, quantum cost, and gate count, respectively, as the reversible logic criteria, compared to previous designs. Furthermore, all the proposed designs have been generalized for n×n multipliers with general formulations to estimate the main reversible logic criteria as the functions of the multiplier size.

Keywords: Booth’s algorithm, error detection, multiplication, parity-preserving gates, quantum computers, reversible logic

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10916 Error Analysis in Academic Writing of EFL Learners: A Case Study for Undergraduate Students at Pathein University

Authors: Aye Pa Pa Myo

Abstract:

Writing in English is accounted as a complex process for English as a foreign language learners. Besides, committing errors in writing can be found as an inevitable part of language learners’ writing. Generally, academic writing is quite difficult for most of the students to manage for getting better scores. Students can commit common errors in their writings when they try to write academic writing. Error analysis deals with identifying and detecting the errors and also explains the reason for the occurrence of these errors. In this paper, the researcher has an attempt to examine the common errors of undergraduate students in their academic writings at Pathein University. The purpose of doing this research is to investigate the errors which students usually commit in academic writing and to find out the better ways for correcting these errors in EFL classrooms. In this research, fifty-third-year non-English specialization students attending Pathein University were selected as participants. This research took one month. It was conducted with a mixed methodology method. Two mini-tests were used as research tools. Data were collected with a quantitative research method. Findings from this research pointed that most of the students noticed their common errors after getting the necessary input, and they became more decreased committing these errors after taking mini-test; hence, all findings will be supportive for further researches related to error analysis in academic writing.

Keywords: academic writing, error analysis, EFL learners, mini-tests, mixed methodology

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10915 Examining Macroeconomics Determinants of Inflation Rate in Somalia

Authors: Farhia Hassan Mohamed

Abstract:

This study examined the macroeconomic factors that affect the inflation Rate in Somalia using quarterly time series data from 1991q1 to 2017q4 retired from World Development Indicators and SESRIC. It employed the vector error correction model (VECM) and Granger Causality method to measure the long-run and short-run causality of the GDP, inflation exchange rate, and unemployment. The study confirmed that there is one cointegration equation between GDP, exchange rate, inflation, and unemployment in Somalia. However, the VECM model's result indicates a long-run relationship among variables. The VEC Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test result confirmed that all covariates are statistically significant at 5% and are Granger's cause of inflation in the short term. Finally, the impulse response result showed that inflation responds negatively to the shocks from the exchange rate and unemployment rate and positively to GDP and itself. Drawing from the empirical findings, the study makes several policy recommendations for both the monetary and Government sides.

Keywords: CPI, OP, exchange rate, inflation ADF, Johansen, PP, VECM, impulse, ECT

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10914 Using the Bootstrap for Problems Statistics

Authors: Brahim Boukabcha, Amar Rebbouh

Abstract:

The bootstrap method based on the idea of exploiting all the information provided by the initial sample, allows us to study the properties of estimators. In this article we will present a theoretical study on the different methods of bootstrapping and using the technique of re-sampling in statistics inference to calculate the standard error of means of an estimator and determining a confidence interval for an estimated parameter. We apply these methods tested in the regression models and Pareto model, giving the best approximations.

Keywords: bootstrap, error standard, bias, jackknife, mean, median, variance, confidence interval, regression models

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10913 Wind Power Forecast Error Simulation Model

Authors: Josip Vasilj, Petar Sarajcev, Damir Jakus

Abstract:

One of the major difficulties introduced with wind power penetration is the inherent uncertainty in production originating from uncertain wind conditions. This uncertainty impacts many different aspects of power system operation, especially the balancing power requirements. For this reason, in power system development planing, it is necessary to evaluate the potential uncertainty in future wind power generation. For this purpose, simulation models are required, reproducing the performance of wind power forecasts. This paper presents a wind power forecast error simulation models which are based on the stochastic process simulation. Proposed models capture the most important statistical parameters recognized in wind power forecast error time series. Furthermore, two distinct models are presented based on data availability. First model uses wind speed measurements on potential or existing wind power plant locations, while the seconds model uses statistical distribution of wind speeds.

Keywords: wind power, uncertainty, stochastic process, Monte Carlo simulation

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10912 Regression Model Evaluation on Depth Camera Data for Gaze Estimation

Authors: James Purnama, Riri Fitri Sari

Abstract:

We investigate the machine learning algorithm selection problem in the term of a depth image based eye gaze estimation, with respect to its essential difficulty in reducing the number of required training samples and duration time of training. Statistics based prediction accuracy are increasingly used to assess and evaluate prediction or estimation in gaze estimation. This article evaluates Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and R-Squared statistical analysis to assess machine learning methods on depth camera data for gaze estimation. There are 4 machines learning methods have been evaluated: Random Forest Regression, Regression Tree, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Linear Regression. The experiment results show that the Random Forest Regression has the lowest RMSE and the highest R-Squared, which means that it is the best among other methods.

Keywords: gaze estimation, gaze tracking, eye tracking, kinect, regression model, orange python

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10911 Bit Error Rate (BER) Performance of Coherent Homodyne BPSK-OCDMA Network for Multimedia Applications

Authors: Morsy Ahmed Morsy Ismail

Abstract:

In this paper, the structure of a coherent homodyne receiver for the Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) Optical Code Division Multiple Access (OCDMA) network is introduced based on the Multi-Length Weighted Modified Prime Code (ML-WMPC) for multimedia applications. The Bit Error Rate (BER) of this homodyne detection is evaluated as a function of the number of active users and the signal to noise ratio for different code lengths according to the multimedia application such as audio, voice, and video. Besides, the Mach-Zehnder interferometer is used as an external phase modulator in homodyne detection. Furthermore, the Multiple Access Interference (MAI) and the receiver noise in a shot-noise limited regime are taken into consideration in the BER calculations.

Keywords: OCDMA networks, bit error rate, multiple access interference, binary phase-shift keying, multimedia

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10910 Comparative Study of Ad Hoc Routing Protocols in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Networks for Smart City

Authors: Khadija Raissi, Bechir Ben Gouissem

Abstract:

In this paper, we perform the investigation of some routing protocols in Vehicular Ad-Hoc Network (VANET) context. Indeed, we study the efficiency of protocols like Dynamic Source Routing (DSR), Ad hoc On-demand Distance Vector Routing (AODV), Destination Sequenced Distance Vector (DSDV), Optimized Link State Routing convention (OLSR) and Vehicular Multi-hop algorithm for Stable Clustering (VMASC) in terms of packet delivery ratio (PDR) and throughput. The performance evaluation and comparison between the studied protocols shows that the VMASC is the best protocols regarding fast data transmission and link stability in VANETs. The validation of all results is done by the NS3 simulator.

Keywords: VANET, smart city, AODV, OLSR, DSR, OLSR, VMASC, routing protocols, NS3

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10909 On Differential Growth Equation to Stochastic Growth Model Using Hyperbolic Sine Function in Height/Diameter Modeling of Pines

Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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10908 Asymmetric Price Transmission in Rice: A Regional Analysis in Peru

Authors: Renzo Munoz-Najar, Cristina Wong, Daniel De La Torre Ugarte

Abstract:

The literature on price transmission usually deals with asymmetries related to different commodities and/or the short and long term. The role of domestic regional differences and the relationship with asymmetries within a country are usually left out. This paper looks at the asymmetry in the transmission of rice prices from the international price to the farm gate prices in four northern regions of Peru for the last period 2001-2016. These regions are San Martín, Piura, Lambayeque and La Libertad. The relevance of the study lies in its ability to assess the need for policies aimed at improving the competitiveness of the market and ensuring the benefit of producers. There are differences in planting and harvesting dates, as well as in geographic location that justify the hypothesis of the existence of differences in the price transition asymmetries between these regions. Those differences are due to at least three factors geography, infrastructure development, and distribution systems. For this, the Threshold Vector Error Correction Model and the Autoregressive Vector Model with Threshold are used. Both models, collect asymmetric effects in the price adjustments. In this way, it is sought to verify that farm prices react more to falls than increases in international prices due to the high bargaining power of intermediaries. The results of the investigation suggest that the transmission of prices is significant only for Lambayeque and La Libertad. Likewise, the asymmetry in the transmission of prices for these regions is checked. However, these results are not met for San Martin and Piura, the main rice producers nationwide. A significant price transmission is verified only in the Lambayeque and La Libertad regions. San Martin and Piura, in spite of being the main rice producing regions of Peru, do not present a significant transmission of international prices; a high degree of self-sufficient supply might be at the center of the logic for this result. An additional finding is the short-term adjustment with respect to international prices, it is higher in La Libertad compared to Lambayeque, which could be explained by the greater bargaining power of intermediaries in the last-mentioned region due to the greater technological development in the mills.

Keywords: asymmetric price transmission, rice prices, price transmission, regional economics

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10907 Developing an ANN Model to Predict Anthropometric Dimensions Based on Real Anthropometric Database

Authors: Waleed A. Basuliman, Khalid S. AlSaleh, Mohamed Z. Ramadan

Abstract:

Applying the anthropometric dimensions is considered one of the important factors when designing any human-machine system. In this study, the estimation of anthropometric dimensions has been improved by developing artificial neural network that aims to predict the anthropometric measurements of the male in Saudi Arabia. A total of 1427 Saudi males from age 6 to 60 participated in measuring twenty anthropometric dimensions. These anthropometric measurements are important for designing the majority of work and life applications in Saudi Arabia. The data were collected during 8 months from different locations in Riyadh City. Five of these dimensions were used as predictors variables (inputs) of the model, and the remaining fifteen dimensions were set to be the measured variables (outcomes). The hidden layers have been varied during the structuring stage, and the best performance was achieved with the network structure 6-25-15. The results showed that the developed Neural Network model was significantly able to predict the body dimensions for the population of Saudi Arabia. The network mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were found 0.0348 and 3.225 respectively. The accuracy of the developed neural network was evaluated by compare the predicted outcomes with a multiple regression model. The ANN model performed better and resulted excellent correlation coefficients between the predicted and actual dimensions.

Keywords: artificial neural network, anthropometric measurements, backpropagation, real anthropometric database

Procedia PDF Downloads 551
10906 A Study of Islamic Stock Indices and Macroeconomic Variables

Authors: Mohammad Irfan

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship among the key macroeconomic variables and Islamic stock market in India. This study is based on the time series data of financial years 2009-2015 to explore the consistency of relationship between macroeconomic variables and Shariah Indices. The ADF (Augmented Dickey–Fuller Test Statistic) and PP (Phillips–Perron Test Statistic) tests are employed to check stationarity of the data. The study depicts the long run relationship between Shariah indices and macroeconomic variables by using the Johansen Co-integration test. BSE Shariah and Nifty Shariah have uni-direct Granger causality. The outcome of VECM is significantly confirming the applicability of best fitted model. Thus, Islamic stock indices are proficiently working for the development of Indian economy. It suggests that by keeping eyes on Islamic stock market which will be more interactive in the future with other macroeconomic variables.

Keywords: Indian Shariah Indices, macroeconomic variables, co-integration, Granger causality, vector error correction model (VECM)

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10905 Hardware Error Analysis and Severity Characterization in Linux-Based Server Systems

Authors: Nikolaos Georgoulopoulos, Alkis Hatzopoulos, Konstantinos Karamitsios, Konstantinos Kotrotsios, Alexandros I. Metsai

Abstract:

In modern server systems, business critical applications run in different types of infrastructure, such as cloud systems, physical machines and virtualization. Often, due to high load and over time, various hardware faults occur in servers that translate to errors, resulting to malfunction or even server breakdown. CPU, RAM and hard drive (HDD) are the hardware parts that concern server administrators the most regarding errors. In this work, selected RAM, HDD and CPU errors, that have been observed or can be simulated in kernel ring buffer log files from two groups of Linux servers, are investigated. Moreover, a severity characterization is given for each error type. Better understanding of such errors can lead to more efficient analysis of kernel logs that are usually exploited for fault diagnosis and prediction. In addition, this work summarizes ways of simulating hardware errors in RAM and HDD, in order to test the error detection and correction mechanisms of a Linux server.

Keywords: hardware errors, Kernel logs, Linux servers, RAM, hard disk, CPU

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10904 Granger Causal Nexus between Financial Development and Energy Consumption: Evidence from Cross Country Panel Data

Authors: Rudra P. Pradhan

Abstract:

This paper examines the Granger causal nexus between financial development and energy consumption in the group of 35 Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Countries over the period 1988-2012. The study uses two financial development indicators such as private sector credit and stock market capitalization and seven energy consumption indicators such as coal, oil, gas, electricity, hydro-electrical, nuclear and biomass. Using panel cointegration tests, the study finds that financial development and energy consumption are cointegrated, indicating the presence of a long-run relationship between the two. Using a panel vector error correction model (VECM), the study detects both bidirectional and unidirectional causality between financial development and energy consumption. The variation of this causality is due to the use of different proxies for both financial development and energy consumption. The policy implication of this study is that economic policies should recognize the differences in the financial development-energy consumption nexus in order to maintain sustainable development in the selected 35 FATF countries.

Keywords: energy consumption, financial development, FATF countries, Panel VECM

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10903 Two Concurrent Convolution Neural Networks TC*CNN Model for Face Recognition Using Edge

Authors: T. Alghamdi, G. Alaghband

Abstract:

In this paper we develop a model that couples Two Concurrent Convolution Neural Network with different filters (TC*CNN) for face recognition and compare its performance to an existing sequential CNN (base model). We also test and compare the quality and performance of the models on three datasets with various levels of complexity (easy, moderate, and difficult) and show that for the most complex datasets, edges will produce the most accurate and efficient results. We further show that in such cases while Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are fast, they do not produce accurate results.

Keywords: Convolution Neural Network, Edges, Face Recognition , Support Vector Machine.

Procedia PDF Downloads 127