Search results for: forecast accuracy unemployment rate

Authors: Angrita Denziana, Haninun, Hepiana Patmarina, Ferdinan Fatah

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The aims of the study are to determine the effect of the company's financial performance with Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE) indicators. The macroeconomic factors with the indicators of Indonesia interest rate (SBI) and exchange rate on stock returns of non-financial companies listed in IDX. The results of this study indicate that the variable of ROA has negative effect on stock returns, ROE has a positive effect on stock returns, and the variable interest rate and exchange rate of SBI has positive effect on stock returns. From the analysis data by using regression model, independent variables ROA, ROE, SBI interest rate and the exchange rate very significant (p value < 0.01). Thus, all the above variable can be used as the basis for investment decision making for investment in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) mainly for shares in the non- financial companies.

Keywords: ROA, ROE, interest rate, exchange rate, stock return

Procedia PDF Downloads 423

Authors: Agholor Deborah Ewere, Emmanuel Ade, Seriki Idowu

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The role women entrepreneur plays to combat unemployment should not be underestimated, especially in countries with growing unemployment rates such as South Africa. Women entrepreneurs contribute significantly to economic development in South Africa, but their contribution has not been adequately studied and developed. Hence, the study identified business strategies adopted by women entrepreneurs to sustain growth and development of entrepreneurship. Survey research design approach was adopted and convenience sampling method was used for sample selection. The structured questionnaire was used to elicit information from the respondents. The findings revealed some of the operational challenges women entrepreneur faced to include lack of finance, marketing skills and planning and also showed that the strategies adopted by women entrepreneurs have a positive effect on the success of small businesses. It was recommended among others that the women entrepreneurs should take some time to study the nature of challenges other women have faced in business and possibly provide solutions to such issues before starting their own business. It was however concluded that unless the operational challenges named above are resolved, the role of women entrepreneurs in the developing nations will continue to experience deprived economic growth, development and display substandard competitiveness.

Keywords: business, entrepreneurs, small, strategies, success, women

Procedia PDF Downloads 453

Authors: X. Lu, T. Lu, S. Javadi

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A simple dynamic approach is presented for analyzing thermal and moisture dynamics of buildings, which is of particular relevance to understanding climate change impacts on buildings, including assessment of risks and applications of resilience strategies. With the goal to demonstrate the proposed modeling methodology, to verify the model, and to show that wooden materials provide a mechanism that can facilitate the reduction of moisture risks and be more resilient to global warming, a wooden church equipped with high precision measurement systems was taken as a test building for full-scale time-series measurements. Sensitivity analyses indicate a high degree of accuracy in the model prediction regarding the indoor environment. The model is then applied to a future projection of climate indoors aiming to identify significant environmental factors, the changing temperature and humidity, and effective response to the climate change impacts. The paper suggests that wooden building materials offer an effective and resilient response to anticipated future climate changes.

Keywords: dynamic model, forecast, climate change impact, wooden structure, buildings

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Authors: Elvis Munyoka

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While the number of African refugees settling in Australia has significantly increased since the mid-1990s, the marginalisation and exclusion of young people from refugee backgrounds in employment remain a critical challenge. Unemployment or underemployment can negatively impact refugees in multiple areas, such as income, housing, life satisfaction, and social status. Higher rates of unemployment among refugees are linked in part to the intersection of pre-migration and daily challenges like trauma, racism, gender identity, and English language competency, all of which generate multiple employability disadvantages. However, the intersection of gender, race, social class, and age in impacting African refugee youth’s access to employment has received less attention. Using a qualitative case study approach, the presentation will explore how gender, race, social class, and age influence African refugee youth graduates’ access to employment in South Australia. The intersectionality theory and capability approach to social justice is used to explore intersecting factors impacting African refugee youth’s access to employment in South Australia. Participants were 16 African refugee graduates aged 18-30 living in South Australia who took part in the study for one year. Based on the trends in the data, the results suggest that long-term unemployment and underemployment, coupled with ongoing racism and marginalisation, have the potential to make refugees more vulnerable to several mental disorders such as depression, hopelessness, and suicidal thoughts. The analysis also reveals that resettlement challenges may limit refugees’ ability to recover from pre-migration trauma. The impact of resettlement challenges on refugee mental health highlights the need for comprehensive policy interventions to address the barriers refugees face in finding employment in resettlement communities. With African refugees constituting such an important part of Australian society, they should have equal access to meaningful employment, as decent work promotes good mental health, successful resettlement, hope, and self-sufficiency.

Keywords: African refugees, employment, mental health, Australia, underemployment

Procedia PDF Downloads 92

Authors: Elvis Munyoka

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While the number of African refugees settling in Australia has significantly increased since the mid-1990s, the marginalisation and exclusion of young people from refugee backgrounds in employment remain a critical challenge. Unemployment or underemployment can negatively impact refugees in multiple areas, such as income, housing, life satisfaction, and social status. Higher rates of unemployment among refugees are linked in part to the intersection of pre-migration and daily challenges like trauma, racism, gender identity, and English language competency, all of which generate multiple employability disadvantages. However, the intersection of gender, race, social class, and age in impacting African refugee youth’s access to employment has received less attention. Using a qualitative case study approach, the paper will explore how gender, race, social class, and age influence African refugee youth graduates’ access to employment in South Australia. The intersectionality theory and capability approach to social justice is used to explore intersecting factors impacting African refugee youth’s access to employment in South Australia. Participants were 16 African refugee graduates aged 18-30 living in South Australia who took part in the study for one year. Based on the trends in the data, the results suggest that long-term unemployment and underemployment, coupled with ongoing racism and marginalisation, have the potential to make refugees more vulnerable to several mental disorders such as depression, hopelessness, and suicidal thoughts. The analysis also reveals that resettlement challenges may limit refugees’ ability to recover from pre-migration trauma. The impact of resettlement challenges on refugee mental health highlights the need for comprehensive policy interventions to address the barriers refugees face in finding employment in resettlement communities. With African refugees constituting such an important part of Australian society, they should have equal access to meaningful employment, as decent work promotes good mental health, successful resettlement, hope, and self-sufficiency.

Keywords: African refugee youth, mental health, employment, resettlement, racism

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Authors: Liang Cheng Chang, Wei Ju Huang, You Cheng Chen

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Investigation and research are keys for conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources. The hydrogeological structure is an important base for groundwater analysis and simulation. Traditionally, the hydrogeological structure is artificially determined based on geological drill logs, the structure of wells, groundwater levels, and so on. In Taiwan, groundwater observation network has been built and a large amount of groundwater-level observation data are available. The groundwater level is the state variable of the groundwater system, which reflects the system response combining hydrogeological structure, groundwater injection, and extraction. This study applies analytical tools to the observation database to develop a methodology for the identification of confined and unconfined aquifers. These tools include frequency analysis, cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level, groundwater regression curve analysis, and decision tree. The developed methodology is then applied to groundwater layer identification of two groundwater systems: Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and Pingtung Plain. The abovementioned frequency analysis uses Fourier Transform processing time-series groundwater level observation data and analyzing daily frequency amplitude of groundwater level caused by artificial groundwater extraction. The cross-correlation analysis between rainfall and groundwater level is used to obtain the groundwater replenishment time between infiltration and the peak groundwater level during wet seasons. The groundwater regression curve, the average rate of groundwater regression, is used to analyze the internal flux in the groundwater system and the flux caused by artificial behaviors. The decision tree uses the information obtained from the above mentioned analytical tools and optimizes the best estimation of the hydrogeological structure. The developed method reaches training accuracy of 92.31% and verification accuracy 93.75% on Zhuoshui River alluvial fan and training accuracy 95.55%, and verification accuracy 100% on Pingtung Plain. This extraordinary accuracy indicates that the developed methodology is a great tool for identifying hydrogeological structures.

Keywords: aquifer identification, decision tree, groundwater, Fourier transform

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Authors: Khaled Abou-El-Hossein

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The presentation will address the features of two IR convex lenses that have been manufactured using an ultra-high precision machining centre based on single-point diamond turning. The lenses are made from silicon and germanium with a radius of curvature of 500 mm. Because of the brittle nature of silicon and germanium, machining parameters were selected in such a way that ductile regime was achieved. The cutting speed was 800 rpm while the feed rate and depth cut were 20 mm/min and 20 um, respectively. Although both materials comprise a mono-crystalline microstructure and are quite similar in terms of optical properties, machining of silicon was accompanied with more difficulties in terms of form accuracy compared to germanium machining. The P-V error of the silicon profile was 0.222 um while it was only 0.055 um for the germanium lens. This could be attributed to the accelerated wear that takes place on the tool edge when turning mono-crystalline silicon. Currently, we are using other ranges of the machining parameters in order to determine their optimal range that could yield satisfactory performance in terms of form accuracy when fabricating silicon lenses.

Keywords: diamond turning, optical surfaces, precision machining, surface roughness

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Authors: Mohammad Hassan Ziraksaz

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Fuel atomizers are used in a wide range of IC engines, turbojets and a variety of liquid propellant rocket engines. As the fuel spray fully develops its characters approach their ultimate amounts. Fuel spray characters such as SMD, injection pressure, mass flow rate, droplet velocity and spray cone angle play important roles to atomize the liquid fuel to finely atomized fuel droplets and finally form the fine fuel spray. Well performed, fully developed, fine spray without any defections, brings the idea of finding an experimental relation between the main effective spray characters. Extracting an experimental relation between SMD and other fuel spray physical characters in swirl fuel atomizers is the main scope of this experimental work. Droplet velocity, fuel mass flow rate, SMD and spray cone angle are the parameters which are measured. A set of twelve reverse engineering atomizers without any spray defections and a set of eight original atomizers as referenced well-performed spray are contributed in this work. More than 350 tests, mostly repeated, were performed. This work shows that although spray cone angle plays a very effective role in spray formation, after formation, it smoothly approaches to an almost constant amount while the other characters are changed to create fine droplets. Therefore, the work to find the relation between the characters is focused on SMD, droplet velocity, fuel mass flow rate, and injection pressure. The process of fuel spray formation begins in 5 Psig injection pressures, where a tiny fuel onion attaches to the injector tip and ended in 250 Psig injection pressure, were fully developed fine fuel spray forms. Injection pressure is gradually increased to observe how the spray forms. In each step, all parameters are measured and recorded carefully to provide a data bank. Various diagrams have been drawn to study the behavior of the parameters in more detail. Experiments and graphs show that the power equation can best show changes in parameters. The SMD experimental relation with pressure P, fuel mass flow rate Q ̇ and droplet velocity V extracted individually in pairs. Therefore, the proportional relation of SMD with other parameters is founded. Now it is time to find an experimental relation including all the parameters. Using obtained proportional relation, replacing the parameters with experimentally measured ones and drawing the graphs of experimental SMD versus proportion SMD (〖SMD〗_P), a correctional equation and consequently the final experimental equation is obtained. This experimental equation is specified to use for swirl fuel atomizers and the use of this experimental equation in different conditions shows about 3% error, which is expected to achieve lower error and consequently higher accuracy by increasing the number of experiments and increasing the accuracy of data collection.

Keywords: droplet velocity, experimental relation, mass flow rate, SMD, swirl fuel atomizer

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Authors: Marie Boost

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Despite activation policies, forced personal initiative to step out of unemployment and a general prosper economic situation, poverty and financial hardship constitute a crucial role in the daily lives of many families in Germany. In 2015, ~16 million persons (20.2%) of the German population are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. This is illustrated by an unemployment rate of 13.3% in the research area, located in East Germany. Despite this high amount of persons living in vulnerable households, we know little about how they manage to stabilize their lives or even overcome poverty – apart from solely relying on welfare state benefits or entering in a stable, well-paid job. Most of them are struggling in precarious living circumstances, switching from one or several short-term, low-paid jobs into self-employment or unemployment, sometimes accompanied by welfare state benefits. Hence, insecurity and uncertain future expectation form a crucial part of their lives. Within the EU-funded project “RESCuE”, resilient practices of vulnerable households were investigated in nine European countries. Approximately, 15 expert interviews with policy makers, representatives from welfare state agencies, NGOs and charity organizations and 25 household interviews have been conducted within each country. It aims to find out more about the chances and conditions of social resilience. The research is based on the triangulation of biographical narrative interviews, followed by participatory photo interviews, asking the household members to portray their typical everyday life. The presentation is focusing on the explanatory strength of this mixed-methods approach in order to show the potential of household practices to overcome financial hardship. The methodological combination allows an in-depth analysis of the families and households everyday living circumstances, including their poverty and employment situation, whether formal and informal. Active household budgeting practices, such as saving and consumption practices are based on subsistence or Do-It-Yourself work. Especially due to the photo-interviews, the importance of inherent cultural and tacit knowledge becomes obvious as it pictures their typical practices, like cultivation and gathering fruits and vegetables or going fishing. One of the central findings is the multiple purposes of these practices. They contribute to ease financial burden through consumption reduction and strengthen social ties, as they are mostly conducted with close friends or family members. In general, non-commodified practices are found to be re-commodified and to contribute to ease financial hardship, e.g. by the use of commons, barter trade or simple mutual exchange (gift exchange). These practices can substitute external purchases and reduce expenses or even generate a small income. Mixing different income sources are found to be the most likely way out of poverty within the context of a precarious labor market. But these resilient household practices take its toll as they are highly preconditioned, and many persons put themselves into risk of overstressing themselves. Thus, the potentials and risks of resilient household practices are reflected in the presentation.

Keywords: consumption practices, labor market, qualitative research, resilience

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Authors: A. J. Otjen

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Native American communities are struggling with unemployment and depressed economies. A major cause is a lack of business knowledge, education, and cultural desire. And yet, in the history of the American West, Native Americans were considered the best traders and negotiators for everything from furs to weapons to buffalo. To improve these economies, there has been an effort to reintroduce that heritage to todays and tomorrows generation of tribal members, such Crow, Cheyenne, and Blackfeet. Professors at the College of Business Montana State University-Billings (MSUB) teach tribal students in Montana to create business plans. These plans have won national small business plan competitions. The teaching and advising method used at MSUB is uniquely successful as theses business students are now five time national champions. This article reviews the environment and the method of learning to achieve a winning small business plan with Native American students. It discusses the five plans that became national champions. And it discusses the problems and solutions discovered in the process of achieving results. Students who participated in this endeavor have graduated and become CPAs, MBAs, and gainfully employed in their chosen professions. They have also worked to improve the economies of their native lands and homes. By educating members of these communities with business strategy and plan development, they are better able to impact their own economies.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, native American economies, small businesses, unemployment

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Authors: Benbiao Song, Yan Gao, Zhuo Liu

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Geostatistical modeling is the key technic for reservoir characterization, the quality of geological models will influence the prediction of reservoir performance greatly, but few studies have been done to quantify the factors impacting geostatistical reservoir modeling accuracy. In this study, 16 fluvial prototype models have been established to represent different geological complexity, 6 cases range from 16 to 361 wells were defined to reproduce all those 16 prototype models by different methodologies including SIS, object-based and MPFS algorithms accompany with different constraint parameters. Modeling accuracy ratio was defined to quantify the influence of each factor, and ten realizations were averaged to represent each accuracy ratio under the same modeling condition and parameters association. Totally 5760 simulations were done to quantify the relative contribution of each factor to the simulation accuracy, and the results can be used as strategy guide for facies modeling in the similar condition. It is founded that data density, geological trend and geological complexity have great impact on modeling accuracy. Modeling accuracy may up to 90% when channel sand width reaches up to 1.5 times of well space under whatever condition by SIS and MPFS methods. When well density is low, the contribution of geological trend may increase the modeling accuracy from 40% to 70%, while the use of proper variogram may have very limited contribution for SIS method. It can be implied that when well data are dense enough to cover simple geobodies, few efforts were needed to construct an acceptable model, when geobodies are complex with insufficient data group, it is better to construct a set of robust geological trend than rely on a reliable variogram function. For object-based method, the modeling accuracy does not increase obviously as SIS method by the increase of data density, but kept rational appearance when data density is low. MPFS methods have the similar trend with SIS method, but the use of proper geological trend accompany with rational variogram may have better modeling accuracy than MPFS method. It implies that the geological modeling strategy for a real reservoir case needs to be optimized by evaluation of dataset, geological complexity, geological constraint information and the modeling objective.

Keywords: fluvial facies, geostatistics, geological trend, modeling strategy, modeling accuracy, variogram

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Authors: Nassib Abdallah, Pierre Chauvet, Abd El Salam Hajjar, Bassam Daya

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In this paper, we propose an optimized brain computer interface (BCI) system for unspoken speech recognition, based on the fact that the constructions of unspoken words rely strongly on the Wernicke area, situated in the temporal lobe. Our BCI system has four modules: (i) the EEG Acquisition module based on a non-invasive headset with 14 electrodes; (ii) the Preprocessing module to remove noise and artifacts, using the Common Average Reference method; (iii) the Features Extraction module, using Wavelet Packet Transform (WPT); (iv) the Classification module based on a one-hidden layer artificial neural network. The present study consists of comparing the recognition accuracy of 5 Arabic words, when using all the headset electrodes or only the 4 electrodes situated near the Wernicke area, as well as the selection effect of the subbands produced by the WPT module. After applying the articial neural network on the produced database, we obtain, on the test dataset, an accuracy of 83.4% with all the electrodes and all the subbands of 8 levels of the WPT decomposition. However, by using only the 4 electrodes near Wernicke Area and the 6 middle subbands of the WPT, we obtain a high reduction of the dataset size, equal to approximately 19% of the total dataset, with 67.5% of accuracy rate. This reduction appears particularly important to improve the design of a low cost and simple to use BCI, trained for several words.

Keywords: brain-computer interface, speech recognition, artificial neural network, electroencephalography, EEG, wernicke area

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Authors: Niya Chen, Jennifer Chan

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In the financial market, risk management helps to minimize potential loss and maximize profit. There are two ways to assess risks; the first way is to calculate the risk directly based on the volatility. The most common risk measurements are Value at Risk (VaR), sharp ratio, and beta. Alternatively, we could look at the quantile of the return to assess the risk. Popular return models such as GARCH and stochastic volatility (SV) focus on modeling the mean of the return distribution via capturing the volatility dynamics; however, the quantile/expectile method will give us an idea of the distribution with the extreme return value. It will allow us to forecast VaR using return which is direct information. The advantage of using these non-parametric methods is that it is not bounded by the distribution assumptions from the parametric method. But the difference between them is that expectile uses a second-order loss function while quantile regression uses a first-order loss function. We consider several quantile functions, different volatility measures, and estimates from some volatility models. To estimate the expectile of the model, we use Realized Conditional Autoregressive Expectile (CARE) model with the bayesian method to achieve this. We would like to see if our proposed models outperform existing models in cryptocurrency, and we will test it by using Bitcoin mainly as well as Ethereum.

Keywords: expectile, CARE Model, CARR Model, quantile, cryptocurrency, Value at Risk

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Authors: Arfan Fadli, Marini Kristina Situmeang, Mukhammad Fatkhullah, Siti Hazar Sitorus

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Merantau is one of the traditions that has been done by the Minangkabau tribe since the 15th century where it is based on socio-economic factors. In fact, that is not only limited to economic factors alone but more how to develop themselves through the experience to get the skills or education. The lack of jobs opportunity in the hometown causes the community, especially for young men to seek livelihoods in other areas. Unemployment impacts on the economy of the community that led to change in the pattern of employment from farmers to traders or new businesses in areas outside of their homeland. This is also worsened because many young people are not interested in becoming a farmer and working on the land in their village. In this context, merantau is considered to be an alternative to fulfilling livelihoods, and therefore this study examines how the merantau tradition constructed by the Minangkabau community, West Sumatera Province. The research method is done by literature review by collecting information related to the social construction of merantau tradition from various scientific publications. The results show how merantau becomes a solution of economic problems for Minangkabau society. Merantau which has now become an institutionalized tradition for the Minangkabau community where the culture of merantau occurred like a chain that can raise the people from the condition of poverty. When there are people who have successfully in merantau, they tend to bring other relatives who have not found a job to be able to trade with them. In the place of merantau, they will be disciplined to learn how to trade. Eventually, they will have new skills to trade and even make their own business. The tradition of bringing relatives to the rantau to be empowered is a unique side of merantau because it is influenced by the Matrilinear kinship system. The matrilineal kinship system in Minangkabau is the largest in the world where helping relatives are considered to be of the highest value. This system also places men as high positions where men should be encouraged to go abroad for financial success and to help their relatives in their hometown. The success of this tradition (to uplift and resolve the poverty and manpower issues) is demonstrated by the tradition of Minangkabau communities that have been successful in the area of Rantau that send money to their relatives in their homes (remittance). Merantau tradition can also be an alternative in reducing unemployment especially for young people where it is demonstrated by the culture of helping relatives to get work outside of their homeland.

Keywords: matrilineal kinship system, merantau, minangkabau community, reducing unemployment

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Authors: Chih Jou Hsiao, Chung Ming Lo, Li Chun Hsieh

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Brain tumor is not the cancer having high incidence rate, but its high mortality rate and poor prognosis still make it as a big concern. On clinical examination, the grading of brain tumors depends on pathological features. However, there are some weak points of histopathological analysis which can cause misgrading. For example, the interpretations can be various without a well-known definition. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of malignant tumors is a challenge to extract meaningful tissues under surgical biopsy. With the development of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), tumor grading can be accomplished by a noninvasive procedure. To improve the diagnostic accuracy further, this study proposed a computer-aided diagnosis (CAD) system based on MRI features to provide suggestions of tumor grading. Gliomas are the most common type of malignant brain tumors (about 70%). This study collected 34 glioblastomas (GBMs) and 73 lower-grade gliomas (LGGs) from The Cancer Imaging Archive. After defining the region-of-interests in MRI images, multiple quantitative morphological features such as region perimeter, region area, compactness, the mean and standard deviation of the normalized radial length, and moment features were extracted from the tumors for classification. As results, two of five morphological features and three of four image moment features achieved p values of <0.001, and the remaining moment feature had p value <0.05. Performance of the CAD system using the combination of all features achieved the accuracy of 83.18% in classifying the gliomas into LGG and GBM. The sensitivity is 70.59% and the specificity is 89.04%. The proposed system can become a second viewer on clinical examinations for radiologists.

Keywords: brain tumor, computer-aided diagnosis, gliomas, magnetic resonance imaging

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Authors: N. R. Badurally Adam, S. R. Monebhurrun, M. Z. Dauhoo, A. Khoodaruth

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Transport energy demand is vital for the economic growth of any country. Globalisation and better standard of living plays an important role in transport energy demand. Recently, transport energy demand in Mauritius has increased significantly, thus leading to an abuse of natural resources and thereby contributing to global warming. Forecasting the transport energy demand is therefore important for controlling and managing the demand. In this paper, we develop a model to predict the transport energy demand. The model developed is based on a system of five stochastic differential equations (SDEs) consisting of five endogenous variables: fuel price, population, gross domestic product (GDP), number of vehicles and transport energy demand and three exogenous parameters: crude birth rate, crude death rate and labour force. An interval of seven years is used to avoid any falsification of result since Mauritius is a developing country. Data available for Mauritius from year 2003 up to 2009 are used to obtain the values of design variables by applying genetic algorithm. The model is verified and validated for 2010 to 2012 by substituting the values of coefficients obtained by GA in the model and using particle swarm optimisation (PSO) to predict the values of the exogenous parameters. This model will help to control the transport energy demand in Mauritius which will in turn foster Mauritius towards a pollution-free country and decrease our dependence on fossil fuels.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, modeling, particle swarm optimization, stochastic differential equations, transport energy demand

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Authors: Vahdettin Sariyel, Birol Dag

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In this research, it is aimed to determine the effects of several environmental factors on adaptation and some yield parameters of Saanen goats reared under intensive conditions at a private farm in Konya province. Gestation rate, twins rate and litter size were evaluated as reproductive traits. Gestation rate was determined as 93.8% and 90.5% for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Twins rate was determined as 59.35 % and 70.00 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Litter size was 1.49 and 1.46 for 2011 and 2012 years respectively. Survival rates of kids from birth to weaning at three months of age were found as 87.74 % and 98.54 % for 2011 and 2012 years respectively.

Keywords: gestation rate, reproduction, saanen, twins rate, vitality

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Authors: Wei-Neng Wang, Jhy-Yuan Shieh, Jhy-Hwa Chen, Juin-Jen Chang

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This paper incorporate tax evasion into a one-sector real business cycle (RBC) model to explores the quantitative interrelations between income tax rate and equilibrium (in)determinacy, and income tax rate is endogenously determined in order to balance the government budget. We find that the level of the effective income tax rate is key factor for equilibrium (in)determinacy, instead of the level of income tax rate in a tax evasion economy. Under an economy with tax evasion, the higher income tax rate is not sufficiently to lead to equilibrium indeterminate, it must combine with a necessary condition which is the lower fraction of tax evasion and that can result in agents' optimistic expectations to become self-fulfilling and sunspot fluctuation more likely to occur. On the other hand, an economy with tax evasion can see its macroeconomy become more stabilize, and a higher fraction of income tax evasion may has a stronger stabilizing effect.

Keywords: tax evasion, balanced-budget rule, equlibirium (in)determinacy, effective income tax rate

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Authors: N. Damenia, E. Kharaishvili, N. Sagareishvili, M. Saghareishvili

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Women's Employment is one of the most important issues in the global economy. The article discusses the stated topic in Georgia, through historical content, Soviet experience, and modern perspectives. The paper discusses segmentation insa terms of employment and related problems. Based on statistical analysis, women's unemployment rate and its factors are analyzed. The level of employment of women in Transcaucasia (Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) is discussed and is compared with Baltic countries (Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia). The study analyzes women’s level of development, according to the average age of marriage and migration level. The focus is on Georgia's Association Agreement with the EU in 2014, which includes economic, social, trade and political issues. One part of it is gender equality at workplaces. According to the research, the average monthly remuneration of women managers in the financial and insurance sector equaled to 1044.6 Georgian Lari, while in overall business sector average monthly remuneration equaled to 961.1 GEL. Average salaries are increasing; however, the employment rate remains problematic. For example, in 2017, 74.6% of men and 50.8% of women were employed from a total workforce. It is also interesting that the proportion of men and women at managerial positions is 29% (women) to 71% (men). Based on the results, the main recommendation for government and civil society is to consider women as a part of the country’s economic development. In this aspect, the experience of developed countries should be considered. It is important to create additional jobs in urban or rural areas and help migrant women return and use their working resources properly.

Keywords: employment of women, segregation in terms of employment, women's employment level in Transcaucasia, migration level

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: A. Karimzad Ghavidel, M. Zadshakouyan

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Laser cutting is a very common production method for cutting 2D polymeric parts. Developing of polymer composites with nano-fibers makes important their other properties like laser workability. The aim of this research is investigation of the influence different laser cutting conditions on the dimensional accuracy of parts and holes from poly methyl methacrylate (PMMA)/carbon nanotubes (CNTs) material. Experiments were carried out by considering of CNTs (in four level 0,0.5, 1 and 1.5% wt.%), laser power (60, 80, and 100 watt) and cutting speed 20, 30, and 40 mm/s as input variable factors. The results reveal that CNTs adding improves the laser workability of PMMA and the increasing of power has a significant effect on the part and hole size. The findings also show cutting speed is effective parameter on the size accuracy. Eventually, the statistical analysis of results was done, and calculated mathematical equations by the regression are presented for determining relation between input and output factor.

Keywords: dimensional accuracy, PMMA, CNTs, laser cutting

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Authors: Tokihiko Akita, Seiichi Mita

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A millimeter-wave radar is the most robust against adverse environments, making it an essential environment recognition sensor for automated driving. However, the reflection signal is sparse and unstable, so it is difficult to obtain the high recognition accuracy. Deep learning provides high accuracy even for them in recognition, but requires large scale datasets with ground truth. Specially, it takes a lot of cost to annotate for a millimeter-wave radar. For the solution, utilizing a simulator that can generate an annotated huge dataset is effective. Simulation of the radar is more difficult to match with real world data than camera image, and recognition by deep learning with higher-order features using the simulator causes further deviation. We have challenged to improve the accuracy of traffic participant classification by fusing simulator and real-world data with domain adaptation technique. Experimental results with the domain adaptation network created by us show that classification accuracy can be improved even with a few real-world data.

Keywords: millimeter-wave radar, object classification, deep learning, simulation, domain adaptation

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Authors: Yu-Jen Chang, Yun Chen, Hei-Lam Wong

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The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP) is a valuable mathematical model that can support decision-makers to make scheduling decisions. The basic period approach is effective for solving the ELSP. The assumption for applying the basic period approach is that a product must use its maximum production rate to be produced. However, a product can lower its production rate to reduce the average total cost when a facility has extra idle time. The past researches discussed how a product adjusts its production rate under the common cycle approach. To the best of our knowledge, no studies have addressed how a product lowers its production rate under the basic period approach. This research is the first paper to discuss this topic. The research develops a simple fixed rate approach that adjusts the production rate of a product under the basic period approach to solve the ELSP. Our numerical example shows our approach can find a better solution than the traditional basic period approach. Our mathematical model that applies the fixed rate approach under the basic period approach can serve as a reference for other related researches.

Keywords: economic lot, basic period, genetic algorithm, fixed rate

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Authors: Andreas Hirseland, Lukas Kerschbaumer

Abstract:

In Germany, during the past years there constantly are about one million long term unemployed who did not benefit from the prospering labor market while most short term unemployed did. Instead, they are continuously dependent on welfare and sometimes precarious short-term employment, experiencing work poverty. Long term unemployment thus turns into a main obstacle to regular employment, especially if accompanied by other impediments such as low level education (school/vocational), poor health (especially chronical illness), advanced age (older than fifty), immigrant status, motherhood or engagement in care for other relatives. Almost two thirds of all welfare recipients have multiple impediments which hinder a successful transition from welfare back to sustainable and sufficient employment. Hiring them is often considered as an investment too risky for employers. Therefore formal application schemes based on formal qualification certificates and vocational biographies might reduce employers’ risks but at the same time are not helpful for long-term unemployed and welfare recipients. The panel survey ‘Labor market and social security’ (PASS; ~15,000 respondents in ~10,000 households), carried out by the Institute of Employment Research (the research institute of the German Federal Labor Agency), shows that their chance to get back to work tends to fall to nil. Only 66 cases of such unlikely transitions could be observed. In a sequential explanatory mixed-method study, the very scarce ‘success stories’ of unlikely transitions from long term unemployment to work were explored by qualitative inquiry – in-depth interviews with a focus on biography accompanied by qualitative network techniques in order to get a more detailed insight of relevant actors involved in the processes which promote the transition from being a welfare recipient to work. There is strong evidence that sustainable transitions are influenced by biographical resources like habits of network use, a set of informal skills and particularly a resilient way of dealing with obstacles, combined with contextual factors rather than by job-placement procedures promoted by Job-Centers according to activation rules or by following formal paths of application. On the employer’s side small and medium-sized enterprises are often found to give job opportunities to a wider variety of applicants, often based on a slow but steadily increasing relationship leading to employment. According to these results it is possible to show and discuss some limitations of (German) activation policies targeting welfare dependency and long-term unemployment. Based on these findings, indications for more supportive small scale measures in the field of labor-market policies are suggested to help long-term unemployed with multiple impediments to overcome their situation.

Keywords: against-all-odds, economic sociology, long-term unemployment, mixed-methods

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Authors: Yong Zhao, Jian He, Cheng Zhang

Abstract:

Cardiovascular diseases caused by hypertension are extremely threatening to human health, and early diagnosis of hypertension can save a large number of lives. Traditional hypertension detection methods require special equipment and are difficult to detect continuous blood pressure changes. In this regard, this paper first analyzes the principle of heart rate variability (HRV) and introduces sliding window and power spectral density (PSD) to analyze the time domain features and frequency domain features of HRV, and secondly, designs an HRV-based hypertension prediction network by combining Resnet, attention mechanism, and multilayer perceptron, which extracts the frequency domain through the improved ResNet18 features through a modified ResNet18, its fusion with time-domain features through an attention mechanism, and the auxiliary prediction of hypertension through a multilayer perceptron. Finally, the network was trained and tested using the publicly available SHAREE dataset on PhysioNet, and the test results showed that this network achieved 92.06% prediction accuracy for hypertension and outperformed K Near Neighbor(KNN), Bayes, Logistic, and traditional Convolutional Neural Network(CNN) models in prediction performance.

Keywords: feature extraction, heart rate variability, hypertension, residual networks

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Authors: Moses Emetere, Marvel Akinyemi, S. E. Sanni

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At the moment, AERONET or AMMA database shows a large volume of data loss. With only about 47% data set available to the scientist, it is evident that accurate nowcast or forecast cannot be guaranteed. The calibration constants of most radiosonde or weather stations are not compatible with the atmospheric conditions of the West African climate. A dispersion model was developed to incorporate salient mathematical representations like a Unified number. The Unified number was derived to describe the turbulence of the aerosols transport in the frictional layer of the lower atmosphere. Fourteen years data set from Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) was tested using the dispersion model. A yearly estimation of the atmospheric constants over Ouagadougou using the model was obtained with about 87.5% accuracy. It further revealed that the average atmospheric constant for Ouagadougou-Niger is a_1 = 0.626, a_2 = 0.7999 and the tuning constants is n_1 = 0.09835 and n_2 = 0.266. Also, the yearly atmospheric constants affirmed the lower atmosphere of Ouagadougou is very dynamic. Hence, it is recommended that radiosonde and weather station manufacturers should constantly review the atmospheric constant over a geographical location to enable about eighty percent data retrieval.

Keywords: aerosols retention, aerosols loading, statistics, analytical technique

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Trisiladi Supriyanto

Abstract:

Although much research has been done on the pricing benchmark both in terms of fiqh or Islamic economic perspective, but no substitution for the concept of interest (rate of interest) up to now in the application of Islamic Banking because some of the jurists from the middle east even allow the use of a benchmark rate such as LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate) as a measure of Islamic financial asset prices, so in other words, they equate the concept of rate of interest with the concept of rate of profit, which is the core reason (raison detre) for the replacement of usury as instructed in the Quran. This study aims to find the concept of rate of profit on Islamic banking that can create economic justice and stability in Islamic Banking and Capital market. Rate of profit that creates economic justice and stability can be achieved through its role in maintaining the stability of the financial system in which there is an equitable distribution of income and wealth. To determine the role of the rate of profit as the basis of the sharing system implemented in the Islamic financial system, we can see the connection of rate of profit in creating financial stability, especially in the asset-liability management of financial institutions that generate a stable net margin or the rate of profit that is not affected by the ups and downs of the market risk factors including indirect effect on interest rates. Furthermore, Islamic financial stability can be seen from the role of the rate of profit on the stability of the Islamic financial assets that are measured from the Islamic financial asset price volatility in Islamic Bond Market in Capital Market.

Keywords: Rate of profit, economic justice, stability, equitable distribution of income, equitable distribution of wealth

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Authors: Manana Lobzhanidze

Abstract:

Introduction: The paper will argue that labor migration is the most important problem Georgia faces today. The structure of labor migration by age and gender of Georgia is analyzed. The main driving factors of circular labor migration during the last ten years are identified. While studying migration, it is necessary to discuss the interconnection of economic, social, and demographic features, also taking into consideration the policy of state regulations in terms of education and professional training. Methodology: Different research methods are applied in the presented paper: statistical, such as selection, grouping, observation, trend, and qualitative research methods, namely; analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, comparison ones. Main Findings: Labour migrants are filling the labor market as a low salary worker. The main positive feedback of migration from developing countries is poverty eradication, but this process is accompanied by problems, such as 'Brain Drain'. The country loses an important part of its intellectual potential, and it is invested by households or state itself. Conclusions: Labor migration is characterized to be temporary, but socio-economic problems of the country often push the labor migration in the direction of longterm and illegal migration. Countries with developed economies try to stricter migration policy and fight illegal migration with different methods; circular migration helps solve this problem. Conclusions and recommendations are included about circular labor migration consequences in Georgia and its influence on the reduction of unemployment level.

Keywords: migration, circular labor migration, labor migration employment, unemployment

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Authors: Jeonghwan Jeon, Mintak Han, Youngjun Kim

Abstract:

Due to the rapid development of information and communication technology (ICT), a substantial transformation is currently happening in the society. As the range of intelligent technologies and services is continuously expanding, ‘things’ are becoming capable of communicating one another and even with people. However, such “Internet of Things” has the technical weakness so that a great amount of such information transferred in real-time may be widely exposed to the threat of security. User’s personal data are a typical example which is faced with a serious security threat. The threats of security will be diversified and arose more frequently because next generation of unfamiliar technology develops. Moreover, as the society is becoming increasingly complex, security vulnerability will be increased as well. In the existing literature, a considerable number of private and public reports that forecast future society have been published as a precedent step of the selection of future technology and the establishment of strategies for competitiveness. Although there are previous studies that forecast security technology, they have focused only on technical issues and overlooked the interrelationships between security technology and social factors are. Therefore, investigations of security threats in the future and security technology that is able to protect people from various threats are required. In response, this study aims to derive potential security threats associated with the development of technology and to explore the security technology that can protect against them. To do this, first of all, private and public reports that forecast future and online documents from technology-related communities are collected. By analyzing the data, future issues are extracted and categorized in terms of STEEP (Society, Technology, Economy, Environment, and Politics), as well as security. Second, the components of potential security threats are developed based on classified future issues. Then, points that the security threats may occur –for example, mobile payment system based on a finger scan technology– are identified. Lastly, alternatives that prevent potential security threats are proposed by matching security threats with points and investigating related security technologies from patent data. Proposed approach can identify the ICT-related latent security menaces and provide the guidelines in the ‘problem – alternative’ form by linking the threat point with security technologies.

Keywords: future society, information and communication technology, security technology, technology forecasting

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Authors: Pegah Safavi, Mehdi Zehtabian, Mohammad Amin Mosleh-Shirazi

Abstract:

Cancer is one of the leading causes of death in the world. Radiation therapy is one of the main choices for cancer treatment. Intensity-modulated radiation therapy is a new type of radiation therapy technique available for vital structures such as the parathyroid glands. It is very important to check the accuracy of the delivered IMRT treatment because any mistake may lead to more complications for the patient. This paper describes an experiment to determine the accuracy of a dose measured by EBT3 film. To test this method, the EBT3 film on the head and neck of the Rando phantom was irradiated by an IMRT device and the irradiation was repeated twice. Finally, the dose designed by the irradiation system was compared with the dose measured by the EBT3 film. Using this criterion, the accuracy of the EBT3 film was evaluated. When using this criterion, a 95% agreement was reached between the planned treatment and the measured values.

Keywords: EBT3, phantom, accuracy, cancer, IMRT

Procedia PDF Downloads 142