Search results for: risk and reliability

Authors: Babatunde Kasim Oladele

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This current study investigated students’ characteristics as factors that influence Mathematics Achievement of junior secondary school students. The study adopted a descriptive survey design. The population of the study was one hundred and twenty-three (123) JSS students of secondary schools in Ibadan North Local Government in Oyo State. A Mathematics achievement test and three questionnaires on student’s self-efficacy belief, attitude, and learning style were the instruments used. Prior to the administration of the constructed mathematics achievement test, 100-item mathematics was subjected to the expert review, and items analysis was carried out. Fifty items were retained. The Cronbach Alpha reliability coefficients of the instruments were 0.71, 0.76, and 0.83, respectively. Collected data were analysed using the frequency count, percentages, mean, standard deviation, and Path Analysis in Amos SPSS Version 20. Students characteristics: gender, age, self-efficacy, attitude and learning style had positive direct effects on students’ achievement in Mathematics as indicated by their respective beta weights (β = 0.36, 0.203, 0.92, 0.079, 0.69 p < 0.05). Consequently, the study concluded that student’s characteristics (Age, gender, and learning style) explained a significant part of the variability in students’ achievement in Mathematics.

Keywords: mathematics achievement, students’ characteristics, junior secondary school, Ibadan

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Authors: O. Badagadze, G. Sirbiladze, I. Khutsishvili

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The work proposes a decision support methodology for the credit risk minimization in selection of investment projects. The methodology provides two stages of projects’ evaluation. Preliminary selection of projects with minor credit risks is made using the Expertons Method. The second stage makes ranking of chosen projects using the Possibilistic Discrimination Analysis Method. The latter is a new modification of a well-known Method of Fuzzy Discrimination Analysis.

Keywords: expert valuations, expertons, investment project risks, positive and negative discriminations, possibility distribution

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Authors: Sevelina Ndlovu

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Financial Technology (fintech) advancement is recognised as one of the most transformational innovations in the financial industry. Fintech has given rise to internet-only digital banking, a novel financial technology advancement, and innovation that allows banking services through internet applications with no need for physical branches. This technology is becoming a new banking normal among consumers for its ubiquitous and real-time access advantages. There is evident switching and migration from traditional banking towards these fintech facilities, which could possibly pose a systemic risk if not properly understood and monitored. Fintech advancement has also brought about the emergence and escalation of financial technology consumption themes such as trust, security, perceived risk, and sustainability within the banking industry, themes scarcely covered in existing theoretic literature. To that end, the objective of this research is to investigate factors that determine fintech adoption and propose an integrated adoption model. This study aims to establish what the significant drivers of adoption are and develop a conceptual model that integrates technological, behavioral, and environmental constructs by extending the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology 2 (UTAUT2). It proposes integrating constructs that influence financial consumption themes such as trust, perceived risk, security, financial incentives, micro-investing opportunities, and environmental consciousness to determine the impact of these factors on the adoption and intention to use digital banking apps. The main advantage of this conceptual model is the consolidation of a greater number of predictor variables that can provide a fuller explanation of the consumer's adoption of digital banking Apps. Moderating variables of age, gender, and income are incorporated. To the best of author’s knowledge, this study is the first that extends the UTAUT2 model with this combination of constructs to investigate user’s intention to adopt internet-only digital banking apps in the UK context. By investigating factors that are not included in the existing theories but are highly pertinent to the adoption of internet-only banking services, this research adds to existing knowledge and extends the generalisability of the UTAUT2 in a financial services adoption context. This is something that fills a gap in knowledge, as highlighted to needing further research on UTAUT2 after reviewing the theory in 2016 from its original version of 2003. To achieve the objectives of this study, this research assumes a quantitative research approach to empirically test the hypotheses derived from existing literature and pilot studies to give statistical support to generalise the research findings for further possible applications in theory and practice. This research is explanatory or casual in nature and uses cross-section primary data collected through a survey method. Convenient and purposive sampling using structured self-administered online questionnaires is used for data collection. The proposed model is tested using Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), and the analysis of primary data collected through an online survey is processed using Smart PLS software with a sample size of 386 digital bank users. The results are expected to establish if there are significant relationships between the dependent and independent variables and establish what the most influencing factors are.

Keywords: banking applications, digital banking, financial technology, technology adoption, UTAUT2

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Authors: G. K. Viswanadh, B. Rajasekhar, G. Venkata Ramana

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Water distribution networks play a vital role in ensuring a reliable supply of clean water to urban areas. However, they face several challenges, including pressure control, pump speed optimization, and burst event detection. This paper combines insights from two studies to address these critical issues in Water distribution networks, focusing on the specific context of Kapra Municipality, India. The first part of this research concentrates on optimizing pressure control and pump speed in complex Water distribution networks. It utilizes the EPANET- MATLAB Toolkit to integrate EPANET functionalities into the MATLAB environment, offering a comprehensive approach to network analysis. By optimizing Pressure Reduce Valves (PRVs) and variable speed pumps (VSPs), this study achieves remarkable results. In the Benchmark Water Distribution System (WDS), the proposed PRV optimization algorithm reduces average leakage by 20.64%, surpassing the previous achievement of 16.07%. When applied to the South-Central and East zone WDS of Kapra Municipality, it identifies PRV locations that were previously missed by existing algorithms, resulting in average leakage reductions of 22.04% and 10.47%. These reductions translate to significant daily Water savings, enhancing Water supply reliability and reducing energy consumption. The second part of this research addresses the pressing issue of burst event detection and localization within the Water Distribution System. Burst events are a major contributor to Water losses and repair expenses. The study employs wireless sensor technology to monitor pressure and flow rate in real time, enabling the detection of pipeline abnormalities, particularly burst events. The methodology relies on transient analysis of pressure signals, utilizing Cumulative Sum and Wavelet analysis techniques to robustly identify burst occurrences. To enhance precision, burst event localization is achieved through meticulous analysis of time differentials in the arrival of negative pressure waveforms across distinct pressure sensing points, aided by nodal matrix analysis. To evaluate the effectiveness of this methodology, a PVC Water pipeline test bed is employed, demonstrating the algorithm's success in detecting pipeline burst events at flow rates of 2-3 l/s. Remarkably, the algorithm achieves a localization error of merely 3 meters, outperforming previously established algorithms. This research presents a significant advancement in efficient burst event detection and localization within Water pipelines, holding the potential to markedly curtail Water losses and the concomitant financial implications. In conclusion, this combined research addresses critical challenges in Water distribution networks, offering solutions for optimizing pressure control, pump speed, burst event detection, and localization. These findings contribute to the enhancement of Water Distribution System, resulting in improved Water supply reliability, reduced Water losses, and substantial cost savings. The integrated approach presented in this paper holds promise for municipalities and utilities seeking to improve the efficiency and sustainability of their Water distribution networks.

Keywords: pressure reduce valve, complex networks, variable speed pump, wavelet transform, burst detection, CUSUM (Cumulative Sum), water pipeline monitoring

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Authors: Shoukat Ali, Amjad Hussain, Latif-ur-Rehman, Sehrish Inam

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Radiotherapy plays an important role in the management of cancer patients. Approximately 50% of the cancer patients receive radiotherapy at one point or another during the course of treatment. The entire radiotherapy treatment of curative intent is divided into different phases, depending on the histology of the tumor. The established protocols are useful in deciding the total dose, fraction size, and numbers of phases. The objective of this study was to evaluate the dosimetric differences between the conventional treatment protocols and the three-dimensional conformal simultaneously integrated boost (SIB) plans for three different tumors sites (i.e. bladder, breast, and brain). A total of 30 patients with brain, breast and bladder cancers were selected in this retrospective study. All the patients were CT simulated initially. The primary physician contoured PTV1 and PTV2 in the axial slices. The conventional doses prescribed for brain and breast is 60Gy/30 fractions, and 64.8Gy/36 fractions for bladder treatment. For the SIB plans biological effective doses (BED) were calculated for 25 fractions. The two conventional (Phase I and Phase II) and a single SIB plan for each patient were generated on Eclipse™ treatment planning system. Treatment plans were compared and analyzed for coverage index, conformity index, homogeneity index, dose gradient and organs at risk doses.In both plans 95% of PTV volume received a minimum of 95% of the prescribe dose. Dose deviation in the optic chiasm was found to be less than 0.5%. There is no significant difference in lung V20 and heart V30 in the breast plans. In the rectum plans V75%, V50% and V25% were found to be less than 1.2% different. Deviation in the tumor coverage, conformity and homogeneity indices were found to be less than 1%. SIB plans with three dimensional conformal radiotherapy technique reduce the overall treatment time without compromising the target coverage and without increasing dose to the organs at risk. The higher dose per fraction may increase the late effects to some extent. Further studies are required to evaluate the late effects with the intention of standardizing the SIB technique for practical implementation.

Keywords: coverage index, conformity index, dose gradient, homogeneity index, simultaneously integrated boost

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Authors: B. Selma

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The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of SIPINA method to predict the harmfulness parameters controlling the seismic response. The approach developed takes into consideration both the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration. The parameter to determine is displacement. The data used for the learning of this method and analysis nonlinear seismic are described and applied to a class of models damaged to some typical structures of the existing urban infrastructure of Jassy, Romania. The results obtained indicate an influence of the focal depth and the peak ground acceleration on the displacement.

Keywords: SIPINA algorithm, seism, focal depth, peak ground acceleration, displacement

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Authors: M. Mohemmed Sha Mohamed Kunju, Abdalla A. Al-Ameen Abdurahman, T. Manesh Thankappan, A. Mohamed Mustaq Ahmed Hameed

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Web service composition is an effective approach to complete the web based tasks with desired quality. A single web service with limited functionality is inadequate to execute a specific task with series of action. So, it is very much required to combine multiple web services with different functionalities to reach the target. Also, it will become more and more challenging, when these services are from different providers with identical functionalities and varying QoS, so while composing the web services, the overall QoS is considered to be the major factor. Also, it is not true that the expected QoS is always attained when the task is completed. A single web service in the composed chain may affect the overall performance of the task. So care should be taken in different aspects such as functionality of the service, while composition. Dynamic and automatic service composition is one of the main option available. But to achieve the actual functionality of the task, quality of the individual web services are also important. Normally the QoS of the individual service can be evaluated by using the non-functional parameters such as response time, throughput, reliability, availability, etc. At the same time, the QoS is not needed to be at the same level for all the composed services. So this paper proposes a framework that allows composing the services in terms of QoS by setting the appropriate weight to the non-functional parameters of each individual web service involved in the task. Experimental results show that the importance given to the non-functional parameter while composition will definitely improve the performance of the web services.

Keywords: composition, non-functional parameters, quality of service, web service

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Authors: Majid Alenezi, Abdelbare Algamode, Amy Hayes, Gavin Lawrence, Nichola Callow

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The purpose of this study was to translate and culturally adapt the Vividness of Movement Imagery Questionnaire-2 (VMIQ-2) from English to produce a new Arabic version (VMIQ-2A), and to evaluate the reliability and validity of the translated questionnaire. The questionnaire assesses how vividly and clearly individuals are able to imagine themselves performing everyday actions. Its purpose is to measure individuals’ ability to conduct movement imagery, which can be defined as “the cognitive rehearsal of a task in the absence of overt physical movement.” Movement imagery has been introduced in physiotherapy as a promising intervention technique, especially when physical exercise is not possible (e.g. pain, immobilisation.) Considerable evidence indicates movement imagery interventions improve physical function, but to maximize efficacy it is important to know the imagery abilities of the individuals being treated. Given the increase in the global sharing of knowledge it is desirable to use standard measures of imagery ability across language and cultures, thus motivating this project. The translation procedure followed guidelines from the Translation and Cultural Adaptation group of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research and involved the following phases: Preparation; the original VMIQ-2 was adapted slightly to provide additional information and simplified grammar. Forward translation; three native speakers resident in Saudi Arabia translated the original VMIQ-2 from English to Arabic, following instruction to preserve meaning (not literal translation), and cultural relevance. Reconciliation; the project manager (first author), the primary translator and a physiotherapist reviewed the three independent translations to produce a reconciled first Arabic draft of VMIQ-2A. Backward translation; a fourth translator (native Arabic speaker fluent in English) translated literally the reconciled first Arabic draft to English. The project manager and two study authors compared the English back translation to the original VMIQ-2 and produced the second Arabic draft. Cognitive debriefing; to assess participants’ understanding of the second Arabic draft, 7 native Arabic speakers resident in the UK completed the questionnaire, and rated the clearness of the questions, specified difficult words or passages, and wrote in their own words their understanding of key terms. Following review of this feedback, a final Arabic version was created. 142 native Arabic speakers completed the questionnaire in community meeting places or at home; a subset of 44 participants completed the questionnaire a second time 1 week later. Results showed the translated questionnaire to be valid and reliable. Correlation coefficients indicated good test-retest reliability. Cronbach’s a indicated high internal consistency. Construct validity was tested in two ways. Imagery ability scores have been found to be invariant across gender; this result was replicated within the current study, assessed by independent-samples t-test. Additionally, experienced sports participants have higher imagery ability than those less experienced; this result was also replicated within the current study, assessed by analysis of variance, supporting construct validity. Results provide preliminary evidence that the VMIQ-2A is reliable and valid to be used with a general population who are native Arabic speakers. Future research will include validation of the VMIQ-2A in a larger sample, and testing validity in specific patient populations.

Keywords: motor imagery, physiotherapy, translation and validation, imagery ability

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Authors: Wai Sang Wu, Florence Pik Sze Mok

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Introduction: Ageing population is one of the hot topics nowadays in the world and this phenomenon is believed to exacerbate continuously in the future. According to the latest information from World Health Organization (WHO) in 2016, the proportion of people aged more than 60 years is projected to be doubled from 12% in 2015 to 22% in 2050 of the world's population. Similarly, according to figures released by the Census and Statistic Department of Hong Kong in 2015, the contribution of elderly aged more than 65 years olds is projected to increase from 15% in 2014 to 34% in 2064 in local community. On the other hand, falls in elderly is a common problem, and it can bring along many negative consequences among elders, such as reducing their mobility level as well as their quality of life. In addition, it can also increase the caring stress of their family caregivers and as well increase the reliance and burden on the medical care system of Hong Kong. Therefore, appropriate measures should be implemented in order to minimize the risk of fall among elders. The objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of the chair-based exercise programme in affecting the balance of the elderly in Hong Kong. Methods: Thirteen healthy subjects (males = 2; females = 11; mean age: 76.2 ± 7.8 years old) were recruited from an elderly social centre in the community to participate in a structural chair-based exercise programme for 6 weeks (1 session per week; 60-minutes per session). Subjects were being assessed on their balance ability using three commonly used clinical assessments, namely, 1) single leg stance (SLS) test, 2) functional reach test, and 3) 360-degree turn test, before and after their participation in the chair-based exercise programme. Pre and post within-subject comparison was adopted to assess the effectiveness of the programme. Results: There was significant improvement (p < 0.05) in all balance parameters of the subjects after their participation in the exercise programme. Elderly demonstrated significant improvement in SLS (p < 0.012), functional reach (p < 0.030) and 360 degree turn (p < 0.043). Conclusions: This study showed that a community chair-based exercise programme is effective in improving the balance ability of the elders. It seems to be another exercise regime that should be promoted among the elders in order to minimize their risk of falls and its negative consequence.

Keywords: balance, chair-based exercise programme, community, elderly

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Authors: J. J. Vargas, N. Prieto, L. A. Toro

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Control charts are commonly used to monitor processes involving either variable or attribute of quality characteristics and determining the control limits as a critical task for quality engineers to improve the processes. Nonetheless, in some applications it is necessary to include an estimation of efficiency. In this paper, the ability to define the efficiency of an industrial process was added to a control chart by means of incorporating a data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. In depth, a Bayesian estimation was performed to calculate the posterior probability distribution of parameters as means and variance and covariance matrix. This technique allows to analyse the data set without the need of using the hypothetical large sample implied in the problem and to be treated as an approximation to the finite sample distribution. A rejection simulation method was carried out to generate random variables from the parameter functions. Each resulting vector was used by stochastic DEA model during several cycles for establishing the distribution of each efficiency measures for each DMU (decision making units). A control limit was calculated with model obtained and if a condition of a low level efficiency of DMU is presented, system efficiency is out of control. In the efficiency calculated a global optimum was reached, which ensures model reliability.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, DEA, Multivariate control chart, rejection simulation method

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Authors: Mimoza Canga, Irene Malagnino, Gresa Baboci, Edit Xhajanka, Vito Antonio Malagnino

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Background: Diabetes mellitus is regarded as a very problematic chronic disease that has an effect on a considerable number of people around the world and it is straightforwardly associated with the oral health condition of the patients. Objective: The objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the impact of diabetes mellitus on oral health. Materials and methods: In the present research were taken into consideration 300 patients with an age range of 11 to 80 years old. The study sample was composed of 191 males, respectively 63.7% of them and 109 females 36.3% of the participants. We divided them into seven age groups: 11-20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years.This descriptive and analytical research was designed as a longitudinal study. Statistical analysis was performed using IBM SPSS 23.0 statistics. Results: The majority of patients participating in the study belonged to the age range from 41 to 50 years old, precisely 20.7% of them, while 27% of the patients were from 51 to 60 years old. Based on the present research, it resulted that 24.4% of the participant had high blood sugar values 250-300 mg/dl, whereas 19 % of the patients had very high blood sugar values 300-350 mg/dl. Based on the results of the current study, it was observed that 83.7% of patients were affected by gingivitis. In the current study, the significant finding is that 22% of patients had more than 7 teeth with dental caries and 21% of them had 5-7 teeth with dental caries, whereas 29% of the patients had 4-5 dental caries and the remaining 28% of them had 1-3 dental caries. The present study showed that most of the patients, 27% of them had lost more than 7 teeth and 22% of the participants had lost 5-7 teeth, whereas 31% of the patients had lost 4-5 teeth and only 20 % of them had lost 1-3 teeth. This study proved that high blood sugar values had a direct impact on the manifestation of gingivitis and there it was a strong correlation between them with P-value = .001. A strong correlation was found out between dental caries and high blood sugar values with P-value ˂.001. Males with diabetes mellitus were more affected by dental caries and this was proved by the P-value= .02, in comparison to females P-value=.03. The impact of high blood sugar values affects missing teeth and the correlation between them was statistically significant with P-value ˂ .001. Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that diabetes mellitus is a possible risk factor in oral health for the reason that Albanian patients over 51 years old, respectively 43% of them have over 5 teeth with dental caries as compared with 49% of the patients who had over 5 missing teeth, whereas the majority 83.7% of them suffered from gingivitis. This study asserts that patients who do not have periodical check-ups of diabetes mellitus are at significant risk of oral diseases.

Keywords: dental caries, diabetes mellitus, gingivitis, missing teeth

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Authors: Nashaat Mazrui, Oarabile Mogobe, Barbara Ngwenya, Ketlhatlogile Mosepele, Mangaliso Gondwe

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Over the last several decades, the world has seen a rapid increase in activities such as deforestation, agriculture, and energy use. Subsequently, trace elements are being deposited into our water bodies, where they can accumulate to toxic levels in aquatic organisms and can be transferred to humans through fish consumption. Thus, though fish is a good source of essential minerals and omega-3 fatty acids, it can also be a source of toxic elements. Monitoring trace elements in fish is important for the proper management of aquatic systems and the protection of human health. The aim of this study was to determine concentrations of trace elements in sediment and muscle tissues of Clarias gariepinus at Lake Ngami, in the Okavango Delta in northern Botswana, during low floods. The fish were bought from local fishermen, and samples of muscle tissue were acid-digested and analyzed for iron, zinc, copper, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, chromium, cadmium, lead, and arsenic using inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-OES). Sediment samples were also collected and analyzed for the elements and for organic matter content. Results show that in all samples, iron was found in the greatest amount while cadmium was below the detection limit. Generally, the concentrations of elements in sediment were higher than in fish except for zinc and arsenic. While the concentration of zinc was similar in the two media, arsenic was almost 3 times higher in fish than sediment. To evaluate the risk to human health from fish consumption, the target hazard quotient (THQ) and cancer risk for an average adult in Botswana, sub-Saharan Africa, and riparian communities in the Okavango Delta was calculated for each element. All elements were found to be well below regulatory limits and do not pose a threat to human health except arsenic. The results suggest that other benthic feeding fish species could potentially have high arsenic levels too. This has serious implications for human health, especially riparian households to whom fish is a key component of food and nutrition security.

Keywords: Arsenic, African sharp tooth cat fish, Okavango delta, trace elements

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Authors: Ramin Vafadary, Maryam Khanbaghi

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Forecasting electricity load is important for various purposes like planning, operation, and control. Forecasts can save operating and maintenance costs, increase the reliability of power supply and delivery systems, and correct decisions for future development. This paper compares various time series methods to forecast 24 hours ahead of electricity load. The methods considered are the Holt-Winters smoothing, SARIMA Modeling, LSTM Network, Fbprophet, and Tensorflow probability. The performance of each method is evaluated by using the forecasting accuracy criteria, namely, the mean absolute error and root mean square error. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) residential energy consumption data is used to train the models. The results of this study show that the SARIMA model is superior to the others for 24 hours ahead forecasts. Furthermore, a Bagging technique is used to make the predictions more robust. The obtained results show that by Bagging multiple time-series forecasts, we can improve the robustness of the models for 24 hours ahead of electricity load forecasting.

Keywords: bagging, Fbprophet, Holt-Winters, LSTM, load forecast, SARIMA, TensorFlow probability, time series

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Authors: J. Lu, H. Li, F. Cole

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This paper proposes a high frequency rotary transformer (HFRT) for a separately excited synchronous machine (SESM) used in a flywheel energy storage system. The SESM can eliminate and reduce rare earth permanent magnet (REPM) usage and provide a better performance in renewable energy systems. However, the major drawback of such SESM is the necessity of brushes and slip rings to supply the field current, which increases the maintenance cost and operation reliability. To overcome these problems, an HFRT integrated with SiC semiconductor devices can replace brushes and slip rings in the SESM. The proposed HFRT features a high frequency magnetic ferrite for both the stationary part as the transformer primary and the rotating part as the transformer secondary and an air gap, allowing safe operation at high rotational speeds. Hence, this rotary transformer can enable the adoption of a wound rotor synchronous machine (WRSM). The HFRT, working at over 100kHz operating frequency exhibits excellent performance of power efficiency and significant size reduction.

Keywords: brushes and slip rings, flywheel energy storage, high frequency rotary transformer, separately excited synchronous machine

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Authors: A. GuhaRay, C. V. S. P. Kiranmayi, S. Rudraraju

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The present study considers the effect of variation of different geotechnical random variables in the design of stone column-foundation systems for assessing the bearing capacity and consolidation settlement of highly compressible soil. The soil and stone column properties, spacing, diameter and arrangement of stone columns are considered as the random variables. Probability of failure (P_f) is computed for a target degree of consolidation and a target safe load by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The study shows that the variation in coefficient of radial consolidation (c_r) and cohesion of soil (c_s) are two most important factors influencing Pf. If the coefficient of variation (COV) of c_r exceeds 20%, P_f exceeds 0.001, which is unsafe following the guidelines of US Army Corps of Engineers. The bearing capacity also exceeds its safe value for COV of c_s > 30%. It is also observed that as the spacing between the stone column increases, the probability of reaching a target degree of consolidation decreases. Accordingly, design guidelines, considering both consolidation and bearing capacity of improved ground, are proposed for different spacing and diameter of stone columns and geotechnical random variables.

Keywords: bearing capacity, consolidation, geotechnical random variables, probability of failure, stone columns

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Authors: Chuan-Ming Tung, Jin-Cheng Fu, Chia-En Feng

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In recent years, the rapid development of urban land in Taiwan has led to the constant increase of the areas of impervious surface, which has increased the risk of waterlogging during heavy rainfall. Therefore, in recent years, promoting runoff allocation responsibilities has often been used as a means of reducing regional flooding. In this study, the single catchment area covering both urban and rural land as the study area is discussed. Based on Storm Water Management Model, urban and rural land in a single catchment area was explored to develop the runoff allocation responsibilities according to their respective control regulation on land use. The impacts of runoff increment and reduction in sub-catchment area were studied to understand the impact of highly developed urban land on the reduction of flood risk of rural land at the back end. The results showed that the rainfall with 1 hour short delay of 2 years, 5 years, 10 years, and 25 years return period. If the study area was fully developed, the peak discharge at the outlet would increase by 24.46% -22.97% without runoff allocation responsibilities. The front-end urban land would increase runoff from back-end of rural land by 76.19% -46.51%. However, if runoff allocation responsibilities were carried out in the study area, the peak discharge could be reduced by 58.38-63.08%, which could make the front-end to reduce 54.05% -23.81% of the peak flow to the back-end. In addition, the researchers found that if it was seen from the perspective of runoff allocation responsibilities of per unit area, the residential area of urban land would benefit from the relevant laws and regulations of the urban system, which would have a better effect of reducing flood than the residential land in rural land. For rural land, the development scale of residential land was generally small, which made the effect of flood reduction better than that of industrial land. Agricultural land requires a large area of land, resulting in the lowest share of the flow per unit area. From the point of the planners, this study suggests that for the rural land around the city, its responsibility should be assigned to share the runoff. And setting up rain water storage facilities in the same way as urban land, can also take stock of agricultural land resources to increase the ridge of field for flood storage, in order to improve regional disaster reduction capacity and resilience.

Keywords: runoff allocation responsibilities, land use, flood mitigation, SWMM

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Authors: Novita Linda Akbar, Elmeida Effendy, Mustafa M. Amin

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Background: The most common of psychotic disorders is schizophrenia. Vitamin D is made from sunlight, and in the skin from UVB radiation from sunlight. If people with Vitamin D deficiency is common severe mental illness such as schizophrenia.Schizophrenia is a chronic mental illness characterised by positive symptoms and negatives symptoms, such as hallucinations and delusions, flat affect and lack of motivation we can found. In patients with Schizophrenia maybe have several environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, such as season of birth, latitude, and climate has been linked to vitamin D deficiency. There is also relationship between the risk of schizophrenia and latitude, and with an increased incidence rate of schizophrenia seen at a higher latitude. Methods: This study was an analytical study, conducted in BLUD RS Jiwa Propinsi Sumatera Utara and RSUD Deli Serdang, the period in May 2016 and ended in June 2016 with a sample of the study 60 sample (20 patients live in the Highland and Lowland, 20 healthy controls). Inclusion criteria were schizophrenic patients both men and women, aged between 18 to 60 years old, acute phase no agitation or abstinence antipsychotic drugs for two weeks, live in the Highland and Lowland, and willing to participate this study. Exclusion criteria were history of other psychotic disorders, comorbidities with other common medical condition, a history of substance abuse. Sample inspection for serum vitamin D using ELFA method. Statistical analysis using numeric comparative T-independent test. Results: The results showed that average levels of vitamin D for a group of subjects living in areas of high land was 227.6 ng / mL with a standard deviation of 86.78 ng / mL, the lowest levels of vitamin D is 138 ng / mL and the highest 482 ng / mL. In the group of subjects who settled in the low lands seem mean vitamin D levels higher than the mountainous area with an average 237.8 ng / mL with a standard deviation of 100.16 ng / mL. Vitamin D levels are lowest and the highest 138-585 ng / mL. Conclusion and Suggestion: The results of the analysis using the Mann Whitney test showed that there were no significant differences between the mean for the levels of vitamin D based on residence subject with a value of p = 0.652.

Keywords: latitude, schizophrenia, Vitamin D, Sumatera Utara

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Authors: Rina Arum Prastyanti

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Information technology has changed the ways of transacting and enabling new opportunities in business transactions. Problems to be faced by consumers M Commerce, among others, the consumer will have difficulty accessing the full information about the products on offer and the forms of transactions given the small screen and limited storage capacity, the need to protect children from various forms of excess supply and usage as well as errors in access and disseminate personal data, not to mention the more complex problems as well as problems agreements, dispute resolution that can protect consumers and assurance of security of personal data. It is no less important is the risk of payment and personal information of payment dal am also an important issue that should be on the swatch solution. The purpose of this study is 1) to describe the phenomenon of the use of Mobile Commerce in Indonesia. 2) To determine the form of legal protection for the consumer use of Mobile Commerce. 3) To get the right type of law so as to provide legal protection for consumers Mobile Commerce users. This research is a descriptive qualitative research. Primary and secondary data sources. This research is a normative law. Engineering conducted engineering research library collection or library research. The analysis technique used is deductive analysis techniques. Growing mobile technology and more affordable prices as well as low rates of provider competition also affects the increasing number of mobile users, Indonesia is placed into 4 HP users in the world, the number of mobile phones in Indonesia is estimated at around 250.1 million telephones with a population of 237 556. 363. Indonesian form of legal protection in the use of mobile commerce still a part of the Law No. 11 of 2008 on Information and Electronic Transactions and until now there is no rule of law that specifically regulates mobile commerce. Legal protection model that can be applied to protect consumers of mobile commerce users ensuring that consumers get information about potential security and privacy challenges they may face in m commerce and measures that can be used to limit the risk. Encourage the development of security measures and built security features. To encourage mobile operators to implement data security policies and measures to prevent unauthorized transactions. Provide appropriate methods both time and effectiveness of redress when consumers suffer financial loss.

Keywords: mobile commerce, legal protection, consumer, effectiveness

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Authors: Maria Ezziani, Rabie Zine, Amine Amar, Ilhame Kissani

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This paper introduces a predictive model for urban transportation engineering, which is vital for efficient traffic management. Utilizing comprehensive datasets and advanced statistical techniques, the model accurately forecasts travel times by considering temporal variations and traffic dynamics. Machine learning algorithms, including regression trees and neural networks, are employed to capture sequential dependencies. Results indicate significant improvements in predictive accuracy, particularly during peak hours and holidays, with the incorporation of traffic flow and speed variables. Future enhancements may integrate weather conditions and traffic incidents. The model's applications range from adaptive traffic management systems to route optimization algorithms, facilitating congestion reduction and enhancing journey reliability. Overall, this research extends beyond travel time estimation, offering insights into broader transportation planning and policy-making realms, empowering stakeholders to optimize infrastructure utilization and improve network efficiency.

Keywords: predictive analytics, traffic flow, travel time estimation, urban transportation, machine learning, traffic management

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Authors: J. Silva, P. Arezes, R. Schierl, N. Costa

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In order to study environmental contamination by cytostatic drugs in Portugal hospitals, sampling campaigns were conducted in three hospitals in 2015 (112 samples). Platinum containing drugs and fluorouracil were chosen because both were administered in high amounts. The detection limit was 0.01 pg/cm² for platinum and 0.1 pg/cm² for fluorouracil. The results show that spills occur mainly on the patient`s chair, while the most referenced occurrence is due to an inadequately closed wrapper. Day hospitals facilities were detected as having the largest number of contaminated samples and with higher levels of contamination.

Keywords: cytostatic, contamination, hospital, procedures, handling

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Authors: Dessy Laksyana Utami

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Manual material handling activities often make it difficult for humans to work like this. Muscle injury due to incorrect posture.Workers need to facilitate their activities. One tool to assist their activities in the transportation of ordinary materials is a trolley. This tool is very useful because it can be used.It can bring many items without having to spend more energy to operate it. Very Comfortable used a trolley in the community. But the old design still have a complaint by worker, because lack of grip and capacity. After posture analysis with the REBA method, the value of risk need to be increased is obtained tool. Re design use Indonesian anthropometric data with the 50th percentile.

Keywords: Material Handling, REBA method, postural assessment, Trolley.

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Authors: Jan Van Uden

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The paper reviews classical agency-theory and its contributions to the analysis of complex business negotiations and gives an approach for the modification of the basic agency-model in order to examine the negotiation specific dimensions of agency-problems. By illustrating fundamental potentials for the modification of agency-theory in context of business negotiations the paper highlights recent empirical research that investigates agent-based negotiations and inter-team constellations. A general theoretical analysis of complex negotiation would be based on a two-level approach. First, the modification of the basic agency-model in order to illustrate the organizational context of business negotiations (i.e., multi-agent issues, common-agencies, multi-period models and the concept of bounded rationality). Second, the application of the modified agency-model on complex business negotiations to identify agency-problems and relating areas of risk in the negotiation process. The paper is placed on the first level of analysis – the modification. The method builds on the one hand on insights from behavior decision research (BRD) and on the other hand on findings from agency-theory as normative directives to the modification of the basic model. Through neoclassical assumptions concerning the fundamental aspects of agency-relationships in business negotiations (i.e., asymmetric information, self-interest, risk preferences and conflict of interests), agency-theory helps to draw solutions on stated worst-case-scenarios taken from the daily negotiation routine. As agency-theory is the only universal approach able to identify trade-offs between certain aspects of economic cooperation, insights obtained provide a deeper understanding of the forces that shape business negotiation complexity. The need for a modification of the basic model is illustrated by highlighting selected issues of business negotiations from agency-theory perspective: Negotiation Teams require a multi-agent approach under the condition that often decision-makers as superior-agents are part of the team. The diversity of competences and decision-making authority is a phenomenon that overrides the assumptions of classical agency-theory and varies greatly in context of certain forms of business negotiations. Further, the basic model is bound to dyadic relationships preceded by the delegation of decision-making authority and builds on a contractual created (vertical) hierarchy. As a result, horizontal dynamics within the negotiation team playing an important role for negotiation success are therefore not considered in the investigation of agency-problems. Also, the trade-off between short-term relationships within the negotiation sphere and the long-term relationships of the corporate sphere calls for a multi-period perspective taking into account the sphere-specific governance-mechanisms already established (i.e., reward and monitoring systems). Within the analysis, the implementation of bounded rationality is closely related to findings from BRD to assess the impact of negotiation behavior on underlying principal-agent-relationships. As empirical findings show, the disclosure and reservation of information to the agent affect his negotiation behavior as well as final negotiation outcomes. Last, in context of business negotiations, asymmetric information is often intended by decision-makers acting as superior-agents or principals which calls for a bilateral risk-approach to agency-relations.

Keywords: business negotiations, agency-theory, negotiation analysis, interteam negotiations

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Authors: Md. Abdul Kader

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Several reports released by Global Financial Integrity (GFI) in recent times have identified Bangladesh as being among the worst affected countries to the scourge of money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF). The money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) risks associated with conventional finance are generally well identified and understood by the relevant national authorities. There is, however, no common understanding of ML/TF risks associated with Islamic Banking. This paper attempts to examine the issues of money laundering (ML) and terrorist financing (TF) in Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. This study also investigates the risk factors associated with Islamic Banking system of Bangladesh that are favorable for ML and TF and which prevent the government to control such issues in the Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. Qualitative research methods were employed by studying various reports from journals, newspapers, bank reports and periodicals. In addition, five ex-bankers who were in the policy making bodies of three Islamic Banks were also interviewed. Findings suggest that government policies regarding Islamic Banking system in Bangladesh are not well defined and clear. Shariah law, that is the guiding principle of Islamic Banking, is not well recognized by the government policy makers, and thus they left the responsibility to the governing bodies of the banks. Other challenges that were found in the study are: the complexity of some Islamic banking products, the different forms of relationship between the banks and their clients, the inadequate ability and skill in the supervision of Islamic finance, particularly in jurisdictions, to evaluate their activities. All these risk factors paved the ground for ML and TF in the Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. However, due to unconventional nature of Banking and lack of investigative reporting on Islamic Banking, this study could not cover the whole picture of the ML/TF of Islamic Banks of Bangladesh. However, both qualitative documents and interviewees confirmed that Islamic Banking in Bangladesh could be branded as risky when it comes to money laundering and terror financing. This study recommends that the central bank authorities who supervise Islamic finance and the government policy makers should obtain a greater understanding of the specific ML/TF risks that may arise in Islamic Banks and develop a proper response. The study findings are expected to considerably impact Islamic banking management and policymakers to develop strong and appropriate policy to enhance transparency, accountability, and efficiency in banking sector. The regulatory bodies can consider the findings to disseminate anti money laundering and terror financing related rules and regulations.

Keywords: money laundering, terror financing, islamic banking, bangladesh

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Authors: Syed Jamil H. Kazmi, Faiza Sarwar

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The Indus delta of Sindh Province forms the largest creeks zone of Pakistan. The Sindh coast starts from the mouth of Hab River and terminates at Sir Creek area. In this paper, we have considered the major creeks from the site of Bin Qasim Port in Karachi to Jetty of Keti Bunder in Thatta District. A general decline in the mangrove forest has been observed that within a span of last 25 years. The unprecedented human interventions damage the creeks habitat badly which includes haphazard urban development, industrial and sewage disposal, illegal cutting of mangroves forest, reduced and inconsistent fresh water flow mainly from Jhang and Indus rivers. These activities not only harm the creeks habitat but affected the fish stock substantially. Fishing is the main livelihood of coastal people but with the above-mentioned threats, it is also under enormous pressure by fish catches resulted in unchecked overutilization of the fish resources. This pressure is almost unbearable when it joins with deleterious fishing methods, uncontrolled fleet size, increase trash and by-catch of juvenile and illegal mesh size. Along with these anthropogenic interventions study area is under the red zone of tropical cyclones and active seismicity causing floods, sea intrusion, damage mangroves forests and devastation of fish stock. In order to sustain the natural resources of the Indus Creeks, this study was initiated with the support of FAO, WWF and NIO, the main purpose was to develop a Geo-Spatial dataset for fish stock assessment. The study has been spread over a year (2013-14) on monthly basis which mainly includes detailed fish stock survey, water analysis and few other environmental analyses. Environmental analysis also includes the habitat classification of study area which has done through remote sensing techniques for 22 years’ time series (1992-2014). Furthermore, out of 252 species collected, fifteen species from estuarine and marine groups were short-listed to measure the weight, health and growth of fish species at each creek under GIS data through SPSS system. Furthermore, habitat suitability analysis has been conducted by assessing the surface topographic and aspect derivation through different GIS techniques. The output variables then overlaid in GIS system to measure the creeks productivity. Which provided the results in terms of subsequent classes: extremely productive, highly productive, productive, moderately productive and less productive. This study has revealed the Geospatial tools utilization along with the evaluation of the fisheries resources and creeks habitat risk zone mapping. It has also been identified that the geo-spatial technologies are highly beneficial to identify the areas of high environmental risk in Sindh Creeks. This has been clearly discovered from this study that creeks with high rugosity are more productive than the creeks with low levels of rugosity. The study area has the immense potential to boost the economy of Pakistan in terms of fish export, if geo-spatial techniques are implemented instead of conventional techniques.

Keywords: fish stock, geo-spatial, productivity analysis, risk

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Authors: Abdulrahman S. Alqahtani

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The revolution of computing and networks could revolutionise terrorism in the same way that it has brought about changes in other aspects of life. The modern technological era has faced countries with a new set of security challenges. There are many states and potential adversaries who have the potential and capacity in cyberspace, which makes them able to carry out cyber-attacks in the future. Some of them are currently conducting surveillance, gathering and analysis of technical information, and mapping of networks and nodes and infrastructure of opponents, which may be exploited in future conflicts. This poster presents the results of the quantitative study (survey) to test the validity of the proposed theoretical framework for the cyber terrorist threats. This theoretical framework will help to in-depth understand these new digital terrorist threats. It may also be a practical guide for managers and technicians in critical infrastructure, to understand and assess the threats they face. It might also be the foundation for building a national strategy to counter cyberterrorism. In the beginning, it provides basic information about the data. To purify the data, reliability and exploratory factor analysis, as well as confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) were performed. Then, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was utilised to test the final model of the theory and to assess the overall goodness-of-fit between the proposed model and the collected data set.

Keywords: cyberterrorism, critical infrastructure, , national security, theoretical framework, terrorism

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Authors: Shivam Dwivedi, Sumit Prakash Gupta, Durga Toshniwal

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It is a challenging task in today’s date to keep defence forces in the highest state of combat readiness with budgetary constraints. A huge amount of time and money is squandered in the unnecessary and expensive traditional maintenance activities. To overcome this limitation Defence Intelligent Mission Readiness and Maintenance Scheduling System has been proposed, which ameliorates the maintenance system by diagnosing the condition and predicting the maintenance requirements. Based on new data mining algorithms, this system intelligently optimises mission readiness for imminent operations and maintenance scheduling in repair echelons. With modified data mining algorithms such as Weighted Feature Ranking Genetic Algorithm and SVM-Random Forest Linear ensemble, it improves the reliability, availability and safety, alongside reducing maintenance cost and Equipment Out of Action (EOA) time. The results clearly conclude that the introduced algorithms have an edge over the conventional data mining algorithms. The system utilizing the intelligent condition-based maintenance approach improves the operational and maintenance decision strategy of the defence force.

Keywords: condition based maintenance, data mining, defence maintenance, ensemble, genetic algorithms, maintenance scheduling, mission capability

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Authors: Ekaterina Zvorykina

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Nowadays, Arctic and Antarctic regions are distinguished to be one of the most important strategic resources for global development. Nonetheless, living conditions in Arctic regions still demand certain improvements. As soon as the region is rarely populated, one of the main points of interest is health accommodation of the people, who migrate to Arctic region for permanent and shift work. At Arctic and Antarctic latitudes, personnel face polar day and polar night conditions during the time of the year. It means that they are deprived of natural sunlight in winter season and have continuous daylight in summer. Firstly, the change in light intensity during 24-hours period due to migration affects circadian rhythms. Moreover, the controlled artificial light in winter is also an issue. The results of the recent studies on night shift medical professionals, who were exposed to permanent artificial light, have already demonstrated higher risks in cancer, depression, Alzheimer disease. Moreover, people exposed to frequent time zones change are also subjected to higher risks of heart attack and cancer. Thus, our main goals are to understand how high latitude work and living conditions can affect human health and how it can be prevented. In our study, we analyze molecular and cellular factors, which play important role in circadian rhythm change and distinguish main risk groups in people, migrating to high latitudes. The main well-studied index of circadian timing is melatonin or its metabolite 6-sulfatoxymelatonin. In low light intensity melatonin synthesis is disturbed and as a result human organism requires more time for sleep, which is still disregarded when it comes to working time organization. Lack of melatonin also causes shortage in serotonin production, which leads to higher depression risk. Melatonin is also known to inhibit oncogenes and increase apoptosis level in cells, the main factors for tumor growth, as well as circadian clock genes (for example Per2). Thus, people who work in high latitudes can be distinguished as a risk group for cancer diseases and demand more attention. Clock/Clock genes, known to be one of the main circadian clock regulators, decrease sensitivity of hypothalamus to estrogen and decrease glucose sensibility, which leads to premature aging and oestrous cycle disruption. Permanent light exposure also leads to accumulation superoxide dismutase and oxidative stress, which is one of the main factors for early dementia and Alzheimer disease. We propose a new screening system adjusted for people, migrating from middle to high latitudes and accommodation therapy. Screening is focused on melatonin and estrogen levels, sleep deprivation and neural disorders, depression level, cancer risks and heart and vascular disorders. Accommodation therapy includes different types artificial light exposure, additional melatonin and neuroprotectors. Preventive procedures can lead to increase of migration intensity to high latitudes and, as a result, the prosperity of Arctic region.

Keywords: circadian rhythm, high latitudes, melatonin, neuroprotectors

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Authors: M. Gregušová, V. Schindlerová, I. Šajdlerová, P. Mohyla, J. Kedroň

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Company managers are always looking for more and more opportunities to succeed in today's fiercely competitive market. Maintain your place among the successful companies on the market today or come up with a revolutionary business idea; it is much more difficult than before. Each new or improved method, tools, or the approach that can improve the functioning of business processes or even the entire system is worth checking and verification. The use of simulation in the design of manufacturing systems and their management in practice is one of the ways without increased risk to find the optimal parameters of manufacturing processes and systems. The paper presents an example of using simulation to solve the bottleneck problem in concrete company.

Keywords: practical applications, business processes, systems, simulation

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Authors: H. Mashhady, H. A. Manzoori, M. Doosti, M. Fatollahi

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This study reports a descriptive research in the form of a genre analysis of postgraduates' theses and dissertations at three Iranian universities, including Ferdowsi, Tehran, and Tarbiat Moddares universities. The researchers sought to depict the generic structure of “statement of the problem” section of PhD dissertations and MA theses. Moreover, researchers desired to find any probable variety based on the year the dissertations belonged, to see weather genre-consciousness developed among Iranian postgraduates. To obtain data, “statement of the problem” section of 90 Ph.D. dissertations and MA theses from 2001 to 2013 in Teaching English as a Foreign Language (TEFL) at above-mentioned universities was selected. Frequency counts was employed for the quantitative method of data analysis, while genre analysis was used as the qualitative method. Inter-rater reliability was found to be about 0.93. Results revealed that students in different degrees at each of these universities used various generic structures for writing “statement of the problem”. Moreover, comparison of different time periods (2001-2006, and 2007-2013) revealed that postgraduates in the second time period, regardless of their degree and university, employed more similar generic structures which can be optimistically attributed to a general raise in genre awareness.

Keywords: genre, genre analysis, Ph.D. and MA dissertations, statement of the problem, generic structure

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Authors: Badriah Alayidi, Emad Alyahya

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Background: Most people with Multiple Sclerosis (MS) report worsening balance as the condition progresses. Poor balance control is also well known to be a significant risk factor for both falling and fear of falling. The increased risk of falls with disease progression thus makes balance control an essential target of gait rehabilitation amongst people with MS. Intervention programs have developed various methods to improve balance control, and accumulating evidence suggests that exercise programs may help people with MS improve their balance. Among these methods, virtual reality (VR) is growing in popularity as a balance-training technique owing to its potential benefits, including better compliance and greater user happiness. However, it is not clear if a VR environment will induce different balance control mechanisms in MS as compared to healthy individuals or traditional environments. Therefore, this study aims to examine how individuals with MS control their balance in a VR setting. Methodology: The proposed study takes an empirical approach to estimate and determine the role of balance response in persons with MS using a VR environment. It will use primary data collected through patient observations, physiological and biomechanical evaluation of balance, and data analysis. Results: The preliminary systematic review and meta-analysis indicated that there was variability in terms of the outcome assessing balance response in people with MS. The preliminary results of these assessments have the potential to provide essential indicators of the progression of MS and contribute to the individualization of treatment and evaluation of the interventions’ effectiveness. The literature describes patients who have had the opportunity to experiment in VR settings and then used what they have learned in the real world, suggesting that this VR setting could be more appealing than conditional settings. The findings of the proposed study will be beneficial in estimating and determining the effect of VR on balance control in persons with MS. In previous studies, VR was shown to be an interesting approach to neurological rehabilitation, but more data are needed to support this approach in MS. Conclusions: The proposed study enables an assessment of balance and evaluations of a variety of physiological implications related to neural activity as well as biomechanical implications related to movement analysis.

Keywords: multiple sclerosis, virtual reality, postural control, balance

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